I often talk about my desire to use mock drafts to experiment.

I’d say it’s a need to review everything that ‘could’ happen rather than an unrealistic prediction months before even the combine, let alone next April’s draft.

However, I’m using this week’s projection as a ‘where we are now’ type experience.

It’s the end of college football’s regular season and now we’re waiting for Bowl season to begin. Things will change as we get to the Senior Bowl, the combine and then individual work outs. As of today, this is how I see things panning out.

It’s the purest mock I’ve done so far – and maybe the most reckless. There’s more opinion and ‘hunch’ involved to justify picks, rather than a qualified, “what if?”.

I will archive this mock and keep it in the ‘Scouting Reports’ section of the blog. It’ll be interesting to see how things have changed by April.

A few thoughts and explanations:

– Ryan Mallett (QB, Arkansas) isn’t in the first round. I am a big fan of Mallett’s on field talent, but I remain unconvinced that he has the necessary mental aspects that teams want in an expensive young quarterback. It’s harder, in my opinion, to place Mallett with a team than it is Newton or Locker. Whilst there are teams in need of a quarterback (and Mallett has top-15 qualities) I would predict a fall as of today. I’m willing to be proven wrong.

– Jake Locker (QB, Washington) on the other hand remains in the top-15. Some people would (rightly) question this logic. Others might call it ‘bizarre’ or ‘plain wrong’. I would not grade Locker in the first round myself. His accuracy issues are a major concern. However, I do think some teams – rightly or wrongly – will see the physical qualities, the character and occasional flashes of brilliance and feel they can turn water into wine. I can see a situation where Locker drops (and badly). I can also see a situation where one team takes him as high as I have projected here. The Seahawks could easily be that team.

– Cameron Jordan (DE, California) and Tyron Smith (OT, USC) are two prospects on the rise. That is represented here – with both having the potential to crack the top ten during work outs. For both – it’s the promise of potential and the physical quality they bring to the team that will be attractive rather than any brilliance shown in college. Smith in particular is the hot tip right now to be the first tackle off the board – representing a year without any obvious top end OT prospects.

– Other prospects might fall, such as Prince Amukamara (CB, Nebraska) and Robert Quinn (DE, UNC). I’ve kept both high on the board here with Quinn at #6 and Amukamara at #11. Quinn might suffer after missing the entire year through suspension and I could see a drop into the teens. This is a best case scenario for him based on the assumption he will work out well at the combine. Amukamara also has to show well in Indianapolis after only a so-so year without any picks. He struggled against Justin Blackmon and whilst he hasn’t been challenged that much this year, that hasn’t stopped a guy like Patrick Peterson having an impact.

You can see the latest projection by clicking here or selecting ‘Mock Draft’ in the title bar.

It’s time for a quick status check on how the draft order looks today. I also want to run through the first few picks, look at what teams might do early on. It’s also important to remember that a lot can change between now and April – specifically during Senior Bowl workouts and the combine.

Currently, the top seven picks are easy to distinguish. Carolina (1-12) would own the first overall selection with Cincinnati (2-11) in second. Denver, Detroit and Buffalo all have a 3-10 record, but the Broncos would pick third based on strength of schedule with the Lions selecting fourth and the Bills fifth.

The Cowboys and Cardinals are 4-9, but Arizona would own the 6th overall pick.

It then gets a bit more complicated. Four teams have a 5-8 record, with Houston and Minnesota (5-7) both potentially joining them after Monday’s games.

If the Texans and Vikings both improved their record to 6-7, strength of schedule would give the Seahawks the 12th overall pick with three games to go.

Here’s some thoughts on what could happen – subject to changes over the next few weeks.

#1 Carolina Panthers (1-12)

Projection: Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford)

There is no question what will happen with this pick if, as expected, Andrew Luck declares for the 2011 Draft (the deadline for that decision is January 15th). With a new regime and fresh start imminent in Carolina, they will select the top ranked quarterback to lead the path forward. The new coaches will have no ties to Jimmy Clausen, who isn’t of the same class as Luck anyway. A no brainer.

#2 Cincinatti Bengals (2-11)

Projection: Cam Newton (QB, Auburn)

This could be an interesting team to follow. Carson Palmer has had a disastrous season and could be released in favor of a fresh start. Cam Newton, in my opinion, needs to be discussed even as high as this pick. It could happen. If the Bengals pick second, they can cut Palmer loose knowing they’d be guaranteed one of Luck or Newton. The Auburn prospect could be their own version of Big Ben – big in size and arm, mobile, occasional miracle worker.

Cincy are also joint last in the NFL for sacks, so you can’t rule out Da’Quan Bowers. It appears to be a pretty safe bet that if the Bengals do pick second overall – it’ll be a quarterback (Luck, Newton) or defensive end (Bowers).

#3 Denver Broncos (3-10)

Projection: Da’Quan Bowers (DE, Clemson)

Denver appear likely to appoint a GM to control the draft and the appointment of a head coach – that will be a significant change for the franchise. Josh McDaniels invested a lot in young offensive talent (Tebow, Thomas, Moreno) but who knows how the new regime will view what is a stagnant offense. Even so – the defense needs to be a priority.

Whether they switch back to a 4-3 or maintain a 3-4 defensive scheme – Da’Quan Bowers makes a ton of sense. Getting bigger up front and adding to the joint worst pass rush in the NFL is crucial (even when Elvis Dumervil returns in 2011). Marcell Dareus and Nick Fairley are other options, but don’t be surprised if we see a move for A.J. Green or Patrick Peterson either.

#4 Detroit Lions (3-10)

Projection: Patrick Peterson (CB, LSU)

The Lions are joint fifth in the NFL for sacks but only eight teams have given up more passing touchdowns. I could see a situation where this team pairs Ndamukong Suh with Da’Quan Bowers (if available) but it would appear unlikely they’d spend so much draft stock at the DT position by considering Nick Fairley or Marcell Dareus.

A.J. Green and Calvin Johnson would be a frightening, yet unlikely combo. The offensive line needs an upgrade – but there are no solutions here. Cornerbacks don’t always go this early – but I have a hard time seeing Detroit pass on Patrick Peterson in this particular scenario.

#5 Buffalo Bills (3-10)

Projection: A.J. Green (WR, Georgia)

This is the most interesting team currently picking in the top ten. How can you project Buffalo? They had so many needs last year and took the flashy running back (C.J. Spiller). I could easily see a similar situation this year with the team snubbing other needs to draft another dynamic playmaker – A.J. Green. Why not? After all – if they persist with a 3-4 defense, neither Nick Fairley or Marcell Dareus are ideal fits. There are no OT’s worthy of the pick and the top two QB’s are gone.

In a situation like this particular projection – I’d almost make Green the favorite to go here. They believed Spiller was too good to pass and in my opinion, Green is a bettter overall prospect than Spiller was last year – and I liked Spiller a lot.

After that it gets a little harder to project. Arizona with the 6th overall pick have big needs at quarterback, offensive tackle, pass rushing OLB and cornerback. I cannot project Ryan Mallett to work under Ken Wisenhunt. Jake Locker has the right mental make-up and can’t be ruled out even despite his major issues with accuracy this year. Even so, I suspect Arizona will address the QB position before the draft. They need to find an experienced veteran who can manage the extreme talent they have on offense.

Robert Quinn (DE/OLB, UNC) is a possibility – but he has a lot of convincing to do in work outs after missing the entire year thanks to a  NCAA suspension. Tyron Smith (OT, USC) may be the best bet for a top-ten left tackle, but lacks the size Arizona would prefer to have on their offensive line. He would need to add 15lbs before the combine. Janoris Jenkins and Prince Amukamara are possibilities at cornerback. I wouldn’t rule out Green or Julio Jones if both are available. Arizona is a difficult team to project at this position.

The Cowboys picked at #7 are a little clearer. Their biggest issue is amongst the secondary, but there are no Eric Berry’s or Earl Thomas’ this year. You can see Jerry Jones falling for Patrick Peterson, but not necessarily for Janoris Jenkins or Prince Amukamara. Both have to be considered however. The depth at CB may also afford the Cowboys to look at beefing up their defensive front with one of Nick Fairley or Marcell Dareus – even if both are better placed in a 4-3.

If the season ended after this weekend’s games, the Seahawks would be picking between #13 and #15 overall. Wins for Houston and Minnesota would put the Seahawks at #13. If only one of those two is victorious, Seattle gets the #14 pick.

The top three picks would belong to Carolina, Cincinatti and Denver in that order.

Prospects taken in the 12-14 range in previous five years:

2010: Ryan Mathews, Brandon Graham, Earl Thomas
2009: Knowshon Moreno, Brian Orakpo, Malcolm Jenkins
2008: Ryan Clady, Jonathan Stewart, Chris Williams
2007: Marshawn Lynch, Adam Carriker, Darelle Revis
2006: Haloti Ngata, Kamerion Wimbley, Brodrick Bunkley

Picking in this range would not give the Seahawks the opportunity to draft Andrew Luck or Cam Newton – I expect both to leave the board early alongside Da’Quan Bowers and Patrick Peterson.

Cam Newton was rightfully awarded the Heisman Trophy on Saturday. The Auburn quarterback won in a landslide victory ahead of second placed Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford).

LaMichael James (RB, Oregon) and Kellen Moore (QB, Boise State) were also finalists.

With 2589 passing yards, 1409 rushing yards and 49 total touchdowns this season – there was never any doubt who deserved the award. Make no mistake – Auburn are in the BCS Championship because of their quarterback.

Before the deadline on January 15th, Newton will declare for the 2011 NFL Draft with a cluster of awards under his arm. He won the Maxwell and O’Brien awards earlier this week and now adds the Heisman.

I’ve discussed Newton’s pro-prospects often on this blog. I’ve included him amongst the top-ten picks in my mock drafts for the majority of the current college football season.

Initial suspicions that this was merely another run-first, athletic QB were cast aside with further research. This is a guy who has the arm, can make NFL throws with accuracy and precision and doesn’t go into the league needing major repair work to his mechanics.

There are improvements that need to be made – he needs to do a better job setting his feet and throwing less off the back foot. Like most rookies he’ll need to learn a playbook much deeper than he’s used to in college. Newton will need to work in a system completely different to that at Auburn where he’s required to make one or two reads before running.

That’s no different to any other rookie.

Newton restricts his mistakes, is capable of making big plays and managing situations. The pressure he’s been under this year will not have been matched with any other prospect in college football. He’s been able to put that to the back of his mind – win – and perform.

Coming from behind to win against Alabama was a defining moment in his development. So far, it might be the highlight in a year where Newton has dominated one of the strongest conferences in the game.

I understand why some high profile pundits are hesitant to put Newton as high as I have in their mocks. This is a guy with little playing experience (one year in the JUCO ranks, one year with Auburn). He’s also got some questions that need answering in team meetings during the draft process – not least his departure from Florida and recent issues involving his father and the ‘pay-to-play’ story.

As long as they can be answered then the sky’s the limit for Cam Newton. Today he won the Heisman – next April he could be back in New York to celebrate being a high pick in the draft.

Auburn quarterback Cam Newton will win the Heisman trophy later today, ahead of Stanford’s Andrew Luck.

Newton is the heart and soul of an unbeaten Auburn team that otherwise would be 6-6. Whilst Luck has had a tremendous year, Newton is everything to Auburn. He’ll win the Heisman and deservedly so.

That’s why I was absolutely stunned to discover he hasn’t been named an All-American by the Football Writers Association.

Kellen Moore (QB, Boise State) took the quarterback position. I have nothing against Moore – he’s had a good year. He’s also playing in a pass-happy offense with a weak schedule and hasn’t led his team to an unbeaten year. Quite frankly it’s ridiculous that Moore has been named ahead of both Newton or Luck.

Just to recap – Newton led the SEC in passer rating and registered 2589 yards with 28 passing TD’s. He also led the SEC in rushing (1409 yards) and added a further 21 TD’s on the ground.

The same huge error won’t be made when the Heisman winner is announced.

Cam Newton was the big winner at the college football awards – winning the Maxwell and the O’Brien. No surprises that Justin Blackmon won the Biletnikoff or that Patrick Peterson won the Bednarik. Da’Quan Bowers rightly won the Nagurski.

Mocking the draft keep us up to date with Jonathan Baldwin (WR, Pittsburgh) and the will he/won’t he nature of his choice over declaring for the NFL Draft. Baldwin will be available for next April and carries a grade in round two.

Todd McShay takes a look at the key match-ups from the scheduled bowl games. Jake Locker (vs Nebraska) is listed – but Locker also falls to #32 on McShay’s latest rankings. The top three are Luck, Bowers and Fairley.

Mel Kiper provides a podcast discussing the pro-prospects of Andrew Luck, Cam Newton and Ryan Mallett. He also looks at how important it is for young QB’s to be strong mentally when entering the NFL.

NFL Draft Bible is keeping up a tracker on the prospects invited to the Senior Bowl. Not all of these guys will necessarily show up at Mobile, but it’ll be interesting to see if Locker, Christian Ponder and Colin Kaepernick attend.

Rob Rang lists a couple of fast risers that aren’t getting much attention. Brooks Reed (DE, Arizona) is someone I’ve mentioned before and Rang discusses him here. Keep an eye on this pass rusher, he’s an option for Seattle at the LEO position. Curtis Marsh (CB, Utah State) also gets some love.

Walter Cherepinsky takes a look at the 2012 draft. He has Matt Barkley (QB, USC) going first overall. He will be the favorite to be the top pick going into the 2011 college football season. The Seahawks pick in the top ten here – let’s hope that isn’t the case after the ’11 season.

Draft Breakdown provide excellent video highlights of prospects. This link takes you to Jake Locker vs Arizona State and the match-up between Gabe Carimi and Cameron Heyward.

This week’s updated mock draft is now available. To see the latest projection simply click here or select ‘Mock Draft’ from the title bar.

Despite Sunday’s win over Carolina, I still have the St. Louis Rams winning the NFC West and therefore picking 21st overall. The Seahawks would own the 14th overall pick if the season ended today.

It was possibly the most challenging projection I’ve had to make for the Seahawks this year.

The top three quarterbacks were off the board, as were the top three corner’s. The two best WR’s and DT’s had been taken as had the best five-technique.

The best player left on the board was Robert Quinn – a player who’s not featured at all in 2010 who would play a position Seattle has adequatly filled this year with a journeyman scheme fit.

I gave strong consideration to Brandon Harris and Stephen Paea, but in the end went in a completely different direction.

It came back to the position I feel remains Seattle’s biggest draft need – quarterback.

I didn’t include Jake Locker in my last two first round projections due to serious concerns I have with his accuracy as a passer.

However, we’ve seen quarterbacks drafted in round one with similar issues in the past and we’ll see it happen again.

Just look at last year – Tim Tebow wasn’t very accurate. He also needed a complete re-work of his mechanics. His selection by Denver in round one was largely reliant on intangibles, work ethic, athleticism and attitude.

Locker’s issues with accuracy cannot be ignored. However – his similar work habits, great character and incredible athleticism will interest some teams in the first round.

By putting him back in round one this week, it doesn’t mean I necessarily think Locker deserves that grade or that he’ll be able to overcome his shortfalls in the NFL. It merely shows that it’ll only take one team to keep him in the high/mid first round.

I still maintain that the Seahawks are as likely as anyone to be ‘that’ team. He fits the scheme, the character criteria and the mobility. For those wondering if accuracy problems will put off John Schneider and Pete Carroll – a lot of Locker’s issues are similar to those owned by a certain Charle Whitehurst.

That didn’t stop the new regime making a bold move to trade for the former Clemson QB.

I’ve paired Seattle and Locker in the past and didn’t necessarily intend to bring it back to the table this soon. However – there’s no getting away from the situation. That much is obvious now.

However poorly Locker may have played at times this year – he will remain a possible top-20 pick. He will always remain a probable choice by the Seattle Seahawks given the opportunity, especially if they pick in the range expressed in this latest mock.

Locker - back in the mock tomorrow

On the 18th September, Jake Locker’s draft stock took a major hit.

Nebraska 56-21 Washington.

Locker: 4/20 passing for 71 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions.

This wasn’t the first time a team or a quarterback had been smothered by Nebraska’s ferocious defense. It won’t be the last. However – this day did a lot to shift Jake Locker from potential #1 overall draft pick in 2011 to border line first rounder.

It wasn’t all on Locker. Washington’s offensive line – not unusually – struggled under heavy pressure. Receivers couldn’t get open and Nebraska’s offense couldn’t stop scoring. We also saw what concerns scouts the most about Locker – decision making, a lack of poise and accuracy.

His first pick was made under no pressure – a deep ball thrown foolishly into double coverage. His second was a bad decision – a forced throw returned for six points.

It’s not a game that stands alone on the 2010 schedule. Locker struggled badly against Stanford (7/14 for 64 yards and two pick) and UCLA (10/21 for 68 yards and one pick). All three games happened under the national gaze and only one (vs UCLA) ended in victory.

Locker and Washington did enough to get to 6-6 – which seemed unlikely a few weeks ago. Now they get a shot at redemption when they face 10-3 Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl.

The game doesn’t take place until December 30th. There’s plenty of time to prepare, rest and plot a road to a much improved performance. Nebraska aren’t the force Washington experienced in September and have lost significant momentum in three defeats when an unbeaten season appeared attainable.

It’s Locker’s last chance to put a solid game on tape against a good defense. A platform to grasp needed momentum ahead of a busy period of work outs, combines and interviews.

I’ve left Locker out of my last two first round mock drafts. He’ll return tomorrow in my latest update. That’s not because of anything witnessed in Saturday’s Apple Cup victory over Washington State. It’s merely because – when all is said and done – this is a quarterback league.

You look at the character, the physical qualities, the mobility and the potential – they are the plus points. He wouldn’t be the first quarterback in the history of the draft to be taken early despite serious accuracy problems. There are enough teams in need of a quarterback to guarantee all four of Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Ryan Mallett and Locker an early exit on draft day.

The last quarterback who divided opinion so much was the guy losing to Seattle on Sunday – Jimmy Clausen.

Some commended his numbers and his experience of a ‘pro-style’ offense under Charlie Weiss. He tumbled deep into round two and I see a situation where he’s not even on Carolina’s roster next year.

Harsh, but a possibility. The Panthers will make major changes to their franchise in the off season and will draft Andrew Luck given the opportunity.

There are significant differences between Clausen and Locker. In Notre Dame’s offense it was all high percentage, low risk throws. A funky release and below-average arm never leant itself to a high first round pick. Then you throw in talk of character concerns.

Locker’s release, physical qualities and character are far superior to Clausen. The ceiling is much higher. Much more is asked of Locker in Washington’s system than ever was of Clausen – who was throwing to Michael Floyd and Golden Tate. Both prospects experienced play behind a sub-standard offensive line.

The accuracy issues with Locker are a concern for his pro-prospects and may prove to be his downfall. That’s the risk one team will take. I do not see, however, reason to believe (as of today) that they’ll lead to a similar fall that Clausen experienced.