Following up my article on Ryan Mallett yesterday, I wanted to draw attention to this piece written by the NFL Network’s Albert Breer:

“Is it possible the Seahawks could pay a heavy price for sneaking in the playoffs at 7-9? It certainly is. With Charlie Whitehurst difficult to count on as a “quarterback of the future,” and Matt Hasselbeck’s contract up, Seattle has planned for months to seriously consider pulling the trigger on a new signal-caller in the first round. And here’s where the issue is — Pete Carroll and Co. are now picking 25th. Had they lost in Week 17 to the Rams in the defacto NFC West title game, Seattle would’ve been picking eighth. That difference of 17 spots? Enormous. There are likely three quarterbacks going in the top half of the first round: Missouri’s Blaine Gabbert, Auburn’s Cam Newton and Washington’s Jake Locker. Now, to get any of those three would require a serious move up and a heavy cost to Seattle, and that means there would have to be serious conviction on the part of the staff. Maybe Carroll has that withthe hometown kid Locker, who the coach will be able to get all the insight he needs on, with his former OC Steve Sarkisian being the coach at UW.”

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realise that the Seahawks may have intended to draft a quarterback this year – and that still may be the case. Finding a long term starter at the position remains Seattle’s #1 need and that will stay true until the problem is solved.

Breer’s angle hints that the Seahawks should perhaps, in hindsight, rue winning the NFC West title and defeating the Saints in the playoffs because it has cost the team a legitimate chance to fill their biggest need.

I would have offered some sympathy to the view had Seattle lost to the Saints in the wildcard round, but I think defeating New Orleans gave the new regime in Seattle a key note victory to build on. You don’t often get the chance to eliminate the defending champs in the playoffs – doing so with a flair and swagger made any thoughts of the draft redundant for at least a few weeks.

The fact isSeattle has to deal withthe position it’s in and live with it. Winning playoff games never stops you drafting a quarterback, it simply narrows the field or makes it more expensive. If the Seahawks were zoned in on a quarterback in December when it looked like the team would pick in the top ten, nothing should change now it owns the #25 overall pick.

Make the move and solve that problem if the guy you want is part of this draft class.

Trading from the mid-20’s to the top ten isn’t unheard of as Jacksonville did just that in 2008 to select Derrick Harvey. The package sent to Baltimore included two third round picks and a fourth round choice. If Seattle can find a buyer there’s nothing to suggest they couldn’t package their second round choice (#57 overall) and the second pick in round four – acquired from the Patriots for Deion Branch.

Funnily enough, the move down the board didn’t stop the Ravens moving back up from #26 to #18 to grab Joe Flacco for a deal worth a third rounder and a sixth rounder. They made their move to get their quarterback, as did the New York Jets in (Mark Sanchez) and Tampa Bay (Josh Freeman). Both teams traded up and left nothing to chance and both teams have won games as a result.

I understand a lot of people cringe at the idea of giving up picks and I accept the Seahawks need depth as well as quality.

Yet we’re not talking about filling any old need here. This isn’t something that will be solved with a fourth round flier like when the team traded for Marshawn Lynch. You won’t stumble upon a starting quarterback the same way Seattle stumbled upon Chris Clemons or RaheemBrock. The Seahawks don’t have the time to train up a late round pick behind Matt Hasselbeck, who’s future remains undecided. If he starts the 2011 season (should it avoid a lockout) he will almost certainly be the oldest starting quarterback in the NFL aged 36.

To win in this league you need a quarterback who can make things happen and those guysgenerally are found in round one. Scouting is too good these days for quality quarterback prospects to drop into the later rounds. Publicity is huge around college QB’s.

Maybe I’ll be proven wrong here – I hope I am – but the Seahawks will not contend year in, year out until they draft a QB early and build around that prospect. If that means trading up – so be it. I’d rather give up two other picks, including this year’s late second round choice, to solve that problem. Seattle’s recent history picking in round two isn’t glorious anyway.

But what if they don’t move up? Breer chips in there as well:

“All this might mean the team would be left with the option of Ryan Mallett at the bottom of the first round, and the Seahawks already are well aware of the kind of risk he presents from a character perspective.”

It’s undetermined whether this quote is generally speaking or rather information relayed from a member of the Seahawks’ staff. As I discussed yesterday, the suspected character concerns with Mallett are there for all to see. This may be assumption rather than inside info. Quite asidefrom all that, he doesn’t fit the mobile quarterback this team appears to want for their offensive scheme. Mallett isn’t the statue some want you to think and he’s more than capable of executing a great play action. He won’t however be running boot legs, avoiding pressure and breaking off runs like Pete Carroll reiterated he wanted his QB’s to do in his post-season press conference.

There are also huge positives that aren’t often discussed amid all the negative publicity – such as Mallett’s ability to read a defense better than possibly any college quarterback I’ve scouted. He has unique arm strength and he made improvements across the board in his second year starting for Arkansas.

At #25 overall the cost is limited too – perhaps making any risks less of a factor. Tim Tebow signed a contract worth $8.7m in guarantees as last year’s #25 pick. The possibility of a rookie pay scale in the next CBA could lessen that further. It’s all a far cry from the $50m St. Louis has committed to Sam Bradford.

The last time the Seahawks picked in the 20’s, they ended up giving Lawrence Jackson a deal worth $6.1m in guarantees. It did not hamper their ability to trade him to Detroit when the pick didn’t work out.

Seattle would be committing to Mallett being a long term starter if they took him, but they wouldn’t be financially crippled if he failed. Would it be an embarrassing bust? Possibly. Yet if Oakland are able to cut Jamarcus Russell and his huge contract so easily as the #1 pick (and move on quickly in the process), there’s no reason why the Seahawks couldn’t similarly move on in a worse-case scenario.

The most positive outcome of drafting Mallett is you end up with a franchise playmaker with immense potential. For all the negativity surrounding Mallett, he’s going to have a step on Blaine Gabbert, Cam Newton and Jake Locker when he enters the league. He’s already used to progressing through reads and he’s come up against the best defenses in college football competing in the SEC. Protect him and give him weapons and that arm will score you points.

The team will no doubt do all it’s homework, do their background checks and put themselves in a position to decide whether the risk is worth it. But Seattle cannot wait for the faultless prospect, not unless they intend to endure a one or two win season in the near future.

Weekend links

Kyle Rota is a close friend of the blog and the guy I respect the most when it comes to player evaluation. He’s produced this scouting report on Florida offensive lineman Mike Pouncey for his new website ‘NFL Draft Reports’.

Regular visitors know my opinion of Colorado Jimmy Smith. For me, there’s nothing between Smithand Patrick Peterson and both are well ahead of Prince Amukamara and Brandon Harris. Russell Lande from the Sporting Press agrees. This follows Todd McShay’s admittance recently that Smith is ahead of Amukamara. There was never any doubt Smith’s stock would rise. He’s flown under the radar and people have merely ‘topped up’ their mocks by casually putting him in the late first round. Some mock drafts don’t even have him in the first round. Jimmy Smith is a top 10-15 talent.

Scouts Inc rank Smith the 10th best prospect on their draft board.

Eric Galko from Optimum Scouting reports that neither Blaine Gabbert or Christian Ponder will throw at the combine. People always act surprised when prospects opt not to throw at the combine and after all these years I still don’t understand why. It never hurts the top prospects’ stock. Quarterbacks rightly don’t want to risk throwing to receivers they’ve never met before when they can just wait until their pro-day. The importance of the position dictates that team’s are unconcerned by not watching them throw balls in shorts and a t-shirt in unnatural conditions.

Nick Fairley catches up with ESPN for a status check:

Ryan Mallett is probably the most intriguing prospect in the 2011 draft.

I’ve long maintained on this blog that Mallett is a very talented player with big pro-potential. People love to talk about the negatives and often the positives of his game are lost in the mix.

In 2009, he completed 56% of his passes. He struggled badly against stronger opponents – averaging just a 41% completion rate in games against Florida, LSU and Ole Miss. His overall numbers were significantly helped by big wins over Troy, Missouri State and Eastern Michigan. None of his seven regular season wins were on the road.

He opted not to declare for last April’s draft and stayed at Arkansas. A broken foot hampered his ability to practise during the summer, but he was still able to significantly improve several areas in his game. He’s generally been more accurate, his decision making has improved and he’s not invested too much trust in his cannon arm. The numbers are evidence to that:

-Mallett has increased his pass completion percentage from 56% to 65% in 2010   

-His overall QB rating has improved from 152.5 last year to 163.5 in 2010   

– Mallett led Arkansas to impressive wins on the road against Georgia, Texas A&M and South Carolina – and a big win at home to LSU

Of course we can linger on what could’ve been – but for a fourth quarter collapse, you could include a victory over then unbeaten #1 Alabama to the list. A late interception cost Arkansas the chance to win the Sugar Bowl against Ohio State after an impressive second-half comeback.

We hear a lot about those two games and why Mallett’s mistakes (and mechanical flaws) were the determining factor. What’s not talked about as much are the games Mallett won for his team.

A lot of scouts asked for improvement in 2010 in terms of accuracy, touch and they wanted to see him win tough games on the road. He managed that and deserves some credit. You could argue there’s no reason why this improvement cannot continue – after all, 2010 was only Mallett’s second year starting for Arkansas having transferred from Michigan.

I appreciate and understand what needs further improvement. His footwork in general is patchy when he’s asked to move around in the pocket and he struggles to re-set his feet and drive into his throws. The deciding interception against Alabama was a perfect example of this, when he threw off balance and had no velocity or direction on the pass. Footwork always seems to be one of the main things rookies have to work on in general.

We see a lot of complaints about his release. It’s true that he takes a long stride into his throws but I think a lot of it is overblown. Mallett gets the ball out fairly quickly with no wind-up action, it’s an over-the-top release point and the ball flies out of his hand.

Overall I think he’s a top-10/15 talent on the field. Based purely on watching snaps I’d have no problem with my team drafting Mallett. The strength of his arm is unmatched in this rookie class and it’s one of the best I’ve ever scouted. He progresses through his reads better than nearly every college QB I’ve watched. He has made improvements and he’s capable of taking what a defense gives him, as well as being an extreme playmaker.

Clearly, there is something about Ryan Mallett.

The concerns I have are all off the field. Talent and a big arm on game day won’t make up for a half-hearted work ethic in the film room at the next level. You watch Mallett’s body language and you see an often petulent character. Is he mature and ready to walk into a locker room full of veterans? Forum speculation cannot and should not be taken seriously, but there’s enough out there for NFL teams to do their research and really quiz the guy during the combine.

Benjamin Allbright published this article at NFL Draft Monsters following up those same serious allegations of drug use.

Other draft pundits have also raised questions:

On the 23rd September, Wes Bunting from the NFP tweeted the following:

I talked to a scout the other day that said “I got stuff on Mallett that nobody knows about” there are a lot of concerns on him personally

The feeling down in Arkansas is that he’s just a different type of person

Major character issues will eventually surface regarding Ryan Mallett. Let’s just say that he won’t be too focused when watching game film at the next level.   

Benjamin Allbright published this article at NFL Draft Monsters following up those same serious allegations of drug use.

Judging Mallett in a negative way for his off the field personality would be harsh and unfair without spending considerable time in his presence and without sufficient investigation. We cannot do this, but NFL teams can and will.

He didn’t come across poorly in this recent interview with the Loose Cannon’s:

It’s also a time when he surely is being coached to handle the media. He chose his words carefully in that piece – note the predictable references to Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Philip Rivers.

A lot of people make comparisons to Jimmy Clausen and the way he fell (most presume because of character concerns). The feeling is – guys like Clausen and Mallett have a sense of entitlement when they enter the pro’s, the kind of which you don’t see from humble characters such as Sam Bradford.

For me – Clausen fell in last April’s draft purely because he’s a really limited physical talent. He played in a high percentage offense which limited mistakes. His mechanics were not good (side arm throwing motion), he had average arm strength and he floated the deep ball with alarming regularity. At no point last year was I convinced Clausen could beat NFL defenses with his arm and his talents. I feel somewhat vindicated by his performance level as a rookie, but also appreciate it’s difficult for any young starting QB – more so on a 2-14 outfit.

Mallett is a much more capable quarterback. He won’t struggle to get the ball downfield, fit the ball into tight windows or progress through a series of reads.

So why do I mock him outside of round one?

You can’t underestimatete the effect of a negative press and Mallett is getting just that at the moment. Everyone is down on him. I think there are legitimate questions that need to be asked about this ‘off the field’ speculation. If any of it is true, it could be a stock killer. If Mallett’s body language is as poor in meetings as it sometimes is on the field – it will scare teams off. While there are plenty of teams in the top 10-15 who could draft a quarterback, there aren’t as many teams after that (Seattle being an exception). If the teams at the top of the draft pass – regardless of character concerns he could still fall.

However, I do not understand those who are suddenly dropping him like a stone based on ‘tape’.

What has Mel Kiper really learned in the last week that he didn’t see during the season? Kiper had Mallett just outside the top ten of his big board for some time and received gentle teasing from Todd McShay for the judgement. A few weeks later, Mallett isn’t even in the top-25. Here’s the explanation:

Kiper’s first 2011 mock draft had the Seahawks drafting Mallett with the #25 pick:

“It’ll be asked, but my sources tell me the Seahawks prefer him to Washington’s Jake Locker — at least right now.”

This at a time when Kiper was still supposedly high on Mallett’s talents. Is he dropping him now based on not-forthcoming information off the field? Or is it genuinely a drop based on further game tape? It just seems like a dramatic fall from grace for someone previously rated so highly on Kiper’s big board – and the issues he raises (release, long stride) were there for all to see earlier in the season when Kiper was studying Arkansas’ game against Alabama.

If I could sit in on any one meeting during the combine – it would be when a QB-needy team interviews Mallett. Those meetings will define his stock. If he can come across well, I suspect one team will take a chance on his talents in round one.

Seattle’s offensive scheme isn’t changing much – Pete Carroll expressed as much during his end of season press conference. Many media outlets and journalists have assumed (wrongly for me) that the removal of Jeremy Bates and appointment of Darrell Bevell will lead to a more prototype west coast offense. I never saw evidence of that system in Minnesota during Bevell’s five years as offensive coordinator and they drafted mobile QB’s (Tavaris Jackson, Joe Webb). This is more akin to what the Seahawks were preaching last off season.

Carroll specifically quoted his preference for the QB to aid the running game by getting out of the pocket and using bootlegs/play action. A tenuous link between Bevell and Green Bay/Holmgren is not enough to believe the Seahawks will change too much going forward. This is Pete Carroll’s plan – on offense and defense. It is not Darrell Bevell’s and it isn’t Mike Holmgren’s. Improving  and establishing the running game will be the key although I suspect very little will change regarding the pass offense.

Jeremy Bates didn’t trade for Charlie Whitehurst – Pete Carroll and John Schneider did. He has a big arm and sufficient mobility skills to get out of the pocket.

Mallett isn’t close to Whitehurst’s agility, but he has the arm. I suspect that the lack of mobility would not appeal to the Seahawks top-brass. However, with a focus on the running game going forward Mallett is adept at play-action fakes and he’s more than capable of managing an offense. A solid running game would also create plenty of downfield passing opportunites.

So I wouldn’t rule Mallett out or in at #25 at this point – and again it could come down to the character issue. After all – this is the team preaching the ‘I’m In’ mentality.

Judging his stock is tough but he’s perhaps the most intriguing prospect in the 2011 draft. An unquestioned talent, but also something of an enigma.

CB Jimmy Smith - the top-10 talent nobody's talking about

I’m having some issues updating the ‘mock draft’ page so I’m going to post the new mock here for now. As soon as the page is working again I will update it with full comments for each pick.

Here’s the latest projection:

#1 Carolina – Blaine Gabbert (QB, Missouri)
The Panthers need to study hard and ask themselves ‘can any of these quarterbacks be the future of this franchise’? If the answer is yes – they could still draft a QB first overall.

#2 Denver – Da’Quan Bowers (DE, Clemson)
The NFL’s worst ranked team for defense and sacks – Bowers would be a huge boost up front.

#3 Buffalo – Marcell Dareus (DT, Alabama)
They could go in a number of directions, but that defensive front needs some beef. Dareus is scheme flexible.

#4 Cincinnati – Nick Fairley (DT, Auburn)
The attitude and personality might put off a few teams – but it won’t put off Cincinnati. Will they be forced to consider a quarterback?

#5 Arizona – Patrick Peterson (CB, LSU)
Quarterback remains a huge black hole in Arizona but would they take Newton, Locker or Mallett?

#6 Cleveland – AJ Green (WR, Georgia)
The Browns need a playmaker on offense who can produce quickly and Green fits the bill.

#7 San Francisco – Cameron Jordan (DE, California)
He’s always been a potential top-10 pick. Locker, Newton or Mallett don’t strike me as John Harbaugh draft picks.

#8 Tennessee – Cam Newton (QB, Auburn)
If Newton lasts this long, he surely won’t get past the Titans.

#9 Dallas – Jimmy Smith (CB, Colorado)
He is a top-ten talent and you’ll start to see him rise in a lot more mock drafts very soon.

#10 Washington – Jake Locker (QB, Washington)
Shanahan clearly wants to draft a quarterback and this is a perfect scheme fit. I’d be very surprised if this didn’t happen.

#11 Houston – Robert Quinn (DE, North Carolina)
They’re switching to a 3-4 defense and Quinn can help Mario Williams get this defense rolling.

#12 Minnesota – Tyron Smith (OT, USC)
The best offensive tackle on the market with huge potential.

#13 Detroit – Von Miller (LB, Texas A&M)
This is too high for me – but don’t underestimate the value of draft hype.

#14 St. Louis – Julio Jones (WR, Alabama)
The Rams need a go-to receiver. I’d love to see Jones fall to Seattle, but it seems unlikely.

#15 Miami – Mike Pouncey (C, Florida)
Pouncey is locked into the mid/late teens. Miami needs a center in a bad way.

#16 Jacksonville – Prince Amukamara (CB, Nebraska)
He’s over rated but he can only fall so far. Amukamara’s future could lie at safety.

#17 New England – JJ Watt (DE, Wisconsin)
Solid football player who fits the New England mantra.

#18 San Diego – Mohammed Wilkerson (DE, Temple)
Growing draft stock after a ten-sack season.

#19 New York Giants – Nate Solder (OT, Colorado)
I have them taking Solder over Akeem Ayers and Mark Ingram – but it was close.

#20 Tampa Bay – Aldon Smith (DE, Missouri)
I think he fits best in the 4-3 despite not having elite size for a right end.

#21 Kansas City – Ryan Kerrigan (DE, Purdue)
The Chiefs want character, leadership and production.

#22 Indianapolis – Corey Liuget (DT, Illinois)
Could probably go higher than this but for a lack of 4-3 teams needing interior help.

#23 Philadelphia – Brandon Harris (CB, Miami)
This appears likely to be a corner or an offensive lineman.

#24 New Orleans – Akeem Ayers (OLB, UCLA)
Linebacker is New Orleans’ #1 need. This would be good value.

#25 Seattle – Phil Taylor (DT, Baylor)
Depth and size up front for the Seahawks’ defensive line.

#26 Baltimore – Jon Baldwin (WR, Pittsburgh)
Could be the receiver they expected Anquan Boldin to be.

#27 Atlanta – Adrian Clayborn (DE, Iowa)
Unimpressive this year but worth a look here.

#28 New England – Mark Ingram (RB, Alabama)
Would be a steal this late in round one and I still struggle to accept he’ll last this far.

#29 New York Jets – Justin Houston (OLB, Georgia)
Rex Ryan loves pass rushers.

#30 Chicago – Torrey Smith (WR, Maryland)
Cutler’s arm could make Smith a star.

#31 Green Bay – Ryan Williams (RB, Virginia Tech)
Injuries destroyed 2009 season but flashed massive potential as a red-shirt freshman.

#32 Pittsburgh – Stephen Paea (DT, Oregon State)
Great against the run and could work out as a five technique.

I will publish an updated mock draft tomorrow – and I’m contemplating a change at the top. The lack of an obvious #1 overall pick makes it a weekly chore to project what Carolina are going to do.

As you’ll see in the links listed below, the Panthers front office are acknowledging they need a quarterback. We’ve become used to the top QB – even if they aren’t necessarily the top talent – going first overall most years. The presence of Jimmy Clausen clouds things slightly but for me he’s never going to be a productive starting quarterback in the NFL.

I suppose you could ask – do you feel confident Blaine Gabbert will be? Or Cam Newton?

I haven’t decided what I’ll do with the latest projection yet but there’s no obvious answer. Nick Fairley is the favorite right now – but I’m not convinced. The Panthers need a defensive tackle but do they draft Fairley #1 with so much depth at the position? I also wonder whether growing character concerns and only one year’s production (where was Fairley in 2009?) will be enough to force Carolina elsewhere.

I’m a big fan of Da’Quan Bowers’ potential and feel similarly positive about AJ Green and Patrick Peterson. First overall pick material? Again I’m not convinced.

The Panthers need to do their homework on the best quarterbacks and ask themselves – can we win with this guy? Can he be the franchise for the next ten or so years? If the answer is yes – that has to be the pick for me.

It could have a trickle down effect even as far as Seattle at #25. The Seahawks should be looking to draft a quarterback and an early rush on the position will make it difficult without a significant move up the boards. The CBA situation could dictate that a rush will occur because teams are unlikely to have alternative means of adding a QB before April’s event.

But if the quarterbacks go early it also strengthens the possibility of other prospects dropping too. Even so – you don’t realise how far down the board #25 is until you compile a mock or sit there watching highly talented prospects leaving the board in the late teens. I remember watching the 2008 draft when the Seahawks last had the #25 pick and thinking ‘if only we were a few places higher’. At the time I was hoping for running backs Chris Johnson or Rashard Mendenhall – both left the board just before Seattle’s pick.

Of course that year Seattle could easily have chosen to move up a few places. They didn’t in round one – and actually moved down to take Lawrence Jackson. In round two – they made a major move up the board to select John Carlson. Baltimore – having already moved around to draft Joe Flacco – were able to acquire Ray Rice with the pick collected from the Seahawks.

Moving up or down the board is something I’ll look into more as we get closer to the draft.

Tuesday’s draft links

Joseph Person has a story quoting Panthers GM Marty Hurney. On the prospect of drafting a quarterback first overall, Hurney: “That’s the No.1 need. I think we have good players. It all starts with solidifying that spot. That’s something that everybody in the league would agree with.”

Wes Bunting of the National Football Post is at the Texas vs Nation work outs this week. He has some positive feedback on Hampton defensive tackle Kenrick Ellis in tweets here and here. Bunting: “DT Kenrick Ellis is a powerful guy, plays low, raw but not much separating him from Phil Taylor.”

Dan Kadar from Mocking the Draft wonders whether Von Miller’s recent stock rise is down to the success of Packers OLB Clay Matthews. Kadar: “Prognosticators are citing Miller’s explosive burst off the snap and a good Senior Bowl week as reasons to push him up. Mel Kiper, for instance, has Miller ranked ninth on his big board. While I plan on moving Miller higher in my top 200 ranking following the Senior Bowl, he won’t break the top 10.”

Steve Muench at Scouts Inc. looks at some of the ‘risers and fallers’ during recent work outs at the Shrine Game and Senior Bowl. On Baylor guard Danny Watkins: “He’s 26 years old, and his age could hurt his stock with some teams, but his ability to contribute early and the fact that he hasn’t reached his potential because of his limited experience should weaken those concerns. Watkins has moved into the late-Day 2 or early-Day 3 conversation.”

Walter Cherepinsky has a new mock draft at Walterfootball. The Seahawks take Miami cornerback Brandon Harris in round one.

Chad Reuter also has a mock draft update at CBS Sportsline. Corey Liuget (DT, Illinois) is Seattle’s pick at #25.

Don’t forget to keep voting for the blog in the Readers’ Choice Awards 2011. Simply select this link and in the ‘Best NFL Draft Site’ category… enter ‘Seahawks Draft Blog’. You can vote as many times as you wish – and all help is greatly appreciated.

The blog’s been nominated for a 2011 Readers’ Choice Award. In order to try and make the final five – I need people to log on and vote. By clicking this link you can go to the entry page and if you have a few moments – can you include ‘Seahawks Draft Blog’ in the ‘Best NFL Draft Site’ category? All help would be really appreciated.

I’ll have a new post on the site in the evening, Seattle time.

Courtesy of Aaron Aloysius. See anyone you like?

Florida State quarterback Christian Ponder was named Senior Bowl MVP

I try and view the Senior Bowl with an element of caution. I’d rather use the game and work outs to confirm suspicions rather than base opinions. A good example is Cameron Jordan (DE, California) – who really flashed a good overall skill set during the week and for me solidified a top-15 grade.

Others like Phil Taylor (DT, Baylor) and Vincent Brown (WR, San Diego State) had good weeks but I need to try and find some tape to judge whether it’s a one-off. Simply put – some guys just look good in work outs but in the pressures of a big game can they repeat that performance? Are they motivated to impress when a job is on the line – and will that motivation disappear when the cheque’s are being cashed?

The Senior Bowl itself is little more than an exhibition. It’s also an opportunity for those that haven’t been reporting on or following college football to make snap judgements. Adam Caplan from Fox Sports refers to Christian Ponder as a “strong armed passer”. Anyone who has watched Florida State the last two years will know that Ponder cannot list a strong arm amongst his positives.

He was named the game’s MVP and appears to have impressed enough writers to get a thumbs up. The story is – he’s healthy again. There’s a massive assumption out there that the Seahawks are going back to a Holmgren-esque, purer west coast offense (they almost certainly aren’t) and I’ve seen Ponder linked with Seattle in more than one or two places.

Pass.

I wrote this article in October about Ponder. He isn’t capable of beating teams with his arm – even when he was healthy in 2009. It’s not just the lack of arm strength, it’s his completely erratic performances. You simply never know what you’re going to get from Ponder. He doesn’t have any direction on his deep throws, he’s not as good throwing on the run as some people will have you believe. Clearly he’s an intelligent guy off the field – but that unfortunately doesn’t translate to game day.

I followed up with another article shortly after which explains my opinion on the Seminoles’ QB further. A good Senior Bowl has had little impact on my grade – I wouldn’t draft him in the first four rounds. I have him down as a long term back up at best in the NFL.

I’m also not surprised to see a prospect like Colin Kaepernick (QB, Nevada) getting strong reviews. He should do well in a work-out environment – he’s tall, athletic and has a good arm. His mechanical issues are less exaggerated and he’s a personable guy so will impress the media during interviews.

When I watched Nevada this year I saw Kaepernick as a mid/late round project. He just looked awkward throwing the ball. He’s got everything that Cam Newton has – size, running ability and production. However – there’s a substantial difference in the passing game. Newton is a much more fluid and developed passer and although people want to labour the point that he’ll need to adjust at the next level – he’s made pro throws, he’s made surprisingly good reads against top opponents and mechanically he’s almost there.

Kaepernick has more to do to become a starter. Newton will make throws and put up numbers quickly as long as he can prove to scouts during interviews that he isn’t incapable of handling a pro playbook. Kaepernick will need a lot of work, possibly 2-3 years down the line, before I think he’ll be ready.

I understand the talk about a second round grade. The athleticism will almost certainly interest a few teams and there are enough rosters minus a starting quarterback right now that I could see it happening. It’s a bit of a ‘your team’ situation though. I’d be intrigued to see how he pans out for as a second rounder, I just wouldn’t necessarily want my team to invest anything more than a round four or five flier in Kaepernick.

What about the other quarterbacks? I saw nothing from Greg McElroy or Andy Dalton that made me question my largely negative judgement. Not starter material at the next level and late round picks at best for me. Ricky Stanzi actually performed below expectations which was a concern. Previously I had him down as possibly the 5th best QB prospect this year – that clearly isn’t the case now. Gabbert, Newton, Mallett and Locker have their own island. Kaepernick is on a raft near by. The rest are on a speedboat heading in the opposite direction.

So what about Locker – the ‘big name’ of the Senior Bowl. It was as expected really – erratic decision making, poor accuracy mixed in with some nice plays particularly when he can get out of the pocket. People who came to Mobile prepared to draft Locker in round one won’t change their mind and neither will those who gave him a mid/late round grade.

I still maintain though that somebody will draft the guy in round one – and I’ll be surprised if Mike Shanahan passes.

Leonard Hankerson (WR, Miami) is someone I always ranked in the round 2-3 range and he had a good week overall to cement that grade. He’ll have a moderate ceiling in terms of draft stock because he isn’t an explosive player, but he’s big and makes plays so somebody will see value in that – it could be Seattle.

I’m staying cautious on Vincent Brown (WR, SD State) as mentioned at the start of the post. Everything was a hands catch in work outs and when asked to run certain routes he could do it during practise. Then the game kicked off and he went into his shell a bit. He had some big games in 2010 (particularly against TCU) but also struggled slightly against Missouri and Colorado State. I’m looking for more tape on this guy to make a sufficient judgement.

One prospect I’ve spoken a lot about on this blog is James Carpenter (LT, Alabama). When people have often suggested the limited Gabe Carimi (RT, Wisconsin) as a Seahawks option in round one – I’ve been quick to point to Carpenter as a superior (cheaper) alternative later in the draft. He stood out for the Crimson Tide this year and flew under the radar. Clearly he’s raw but he’s got a great frame that’s capable of adding size. He did a good job in Mobile and that will help his stock. I honestly would have no qualms drafting him in the round 3-4 range. In a few years time that might look like a steal.

Brooks Reed (DE, Arizona) is another I’ve been high on for the Seahawks as a perfect LEO candidate. He’s got a great burst off the snap, he’s strong enough to stand up against the run and although he’s not an elite athlete – he’ll make up for it with consistent effort. While his stock is rising, Jeremy Beal (DE, Oklahoma) seems to be going in the other direction. I like that – because Beal is another LEO I’d happily draft. The position is designed for production and both prospects have the necessary skill set to warrant keeping an eye on.

As with San Diego State’s Brown, I’m also working hard to find Baylor tape. This isn’t just to watch potential defensive line ‘do it all’ prospect Phil Taylor (who could project as a Red Bryant 5-tech, nose tackle or even 3-technique for Seattle), but also guard Danny Watkins. He’s got a limited ceiling due to his age – he’s only a few months younger than me so he’ll turn 27 during his rookie season. He flashed enough this week, however, to interest teams needing a mid-round fix among the interior offensive line.

I can’t talk about senior guards without mentioning Rodney Hudson (OG, Florida State). Since early in 2009 I’ve been a fan and nothing has ever changed that. He played all week at 291lbs and looked every bit the top guard on the field during yesterday’s game. Clearly the size is an issue for any team not running a pure Alex Gibbs zone blocking scheme. Seattle are no longer running that, despite Gibbs’ fleeting role with the team last off season.

Even so – I really believe Hudson is strong enough, wise enough and fully capable of having a long and successful NFL career. Nobody has his level of technique in this draft class. He makes up for a lack of weight by understanding what he needs to do to gain leverage and his second level blocking is a thing of beauty. Whether he plays at center or guard, I think the Seahawks have to consider him.

Two other defensive prospects who impressed me were Pernell McPhee (DE, Miss. State) and Jarvis Jenkins (DT, Clemson). I could see both at five-technique in Seattle. Offensive lineman Derek Sherrod (OT, Miss. State) and Demarcus Love (OT, Arizona) were less impressive. I’m beginning to wonder if Sherrod’s long term future is at right tackle and whether Love needs to kick inside to guard for a man blocking scheme roster.

Allen Bailey (DE, Miami) continues to look the business in pads but flat out disappoints whenever he takes the field.

I’ll finish by admitting I’m still not even close to getting on the Von Miller (OLB, Texas A&M) bandwagon. He got a third round grade from the draft committee last year and I think that’s about right. Aside from the limited value of the 4-3 outside linebacker (where Von Miller will have to play in my opinion) – I just don’t see him being an effective force on running downs and I don’t think you’re going to get 8-10 sacks from him either.

I have to represent draft ‘hype’ in my mocks because it does figure. He’ll be in my next first round mock draft for sure. However – I’m still completely unconvinced he’s worthy of that price.

I’m not the only one who feels that way – as Tony Pauline noted throughout the week from Mobile:

Day One:

“Spent most of the day at SSLB, but was not impressive working his way through all the drills.”

Day Two:

“Not a good day for a guy that’s projected to be a 3-4 OLB.  Was easily controlled by blocks all day and at one point got annihilated by Luke Stocker.  Showed decent skills in coverage when he had to move in reverse. Miller was brought over to the pass rush drills to showcase his talents, which were average at best.”

Day Three:

“Nice athlete; fluid with a nice degree of explosion.  Gets depth on drops.  Moves well in all directions.  Again struggled in pass rush drills.”

Day Four:

“We came into the week thinking Miller was the best 3-4 OLB in April’s draft.  We left the week thinking he could be the first 4-3 OLB drafted.  Miller has the speed and quickness to be used on the weak or strong side and also showed ability in coverage.  Combine will tell the tale for Miller.”

It’s absolutely true that the combine will make or break Von Miller’s rapid rise. If he runs a fast time, someone is going to fall in love with the agility and quicks and take him earlier than they should. If he runs in the 4.6-7 range, people will start to wonder if this is just a smaller prospect who can move around – but isn’t that elite guy who will compensate size for speed.

And for me – the clear #1 senior prospect wasn’t working out in Mobile this week – Jimmy Smith (CB, Colorado).

The Red Bryant position, the nose tackle, the three-technique and the LEO pass rusher – Seattle’s defensive line scheme is a bit more complex and a little less orthodox than most.

To the eye it looks like a 4-3, but when you consider the roles of each lineman and the strict qualities needed at each position – it could probably be defined as being closer to a 3-4.

We’ve had a year to look at it and using the 2010 season as a basis for my opinion – I’ve come to a few conclusions.

I think the Seahawks will consistently find LEO rushers without spending the top picks. It looks – to me at least – a position designed for production. There’s an emphasis on speed, you put the DE in space and hope to put him in one-on-one situations. Both Chris Clemons and Raheem Brock had double-digit sacks in 2010 despite middling careers before arriving in Seattle.

Given the opportunity to draft an elite prospect in the Demarcus Ware mould, I’m sure the Seahawks would jump at the chance. However, I do suspect it’ll have that ‘plug in and play’ quality to it and that may decrease the likelihood we’ll see a first round pick at the position except in rare circumstances.

In the 2011 class I see only three likely candidates that fit the role.

Robert Quinn (DE, Carolina) has the size and initial burst – but he’s also strong and capable against the run.

I’m a big fan of Aldon Smith’s (DE, Missouri) first step and ability to get round the edge.

Justin Houston (DE, Georgia) screamed LEO pass rusher when I watched the Bulldogs against Florida.

Of the three, I suspect only Justin Houston will be available when the Seahawks are scheduled to pick 25th overall. For those wondering about Von Miller (LB, Texas A&M) – even for a position that values speed and not size, he’s too small at 237lbs and will get flushed out against the run. He’s strictly a linebacker prospect in the Seahawks scheme.

The Seahawks found production at the LEO trading Darryl Tapp for Clemons and a fourth round pick. They grabbed Brock as a free agent. Prospects such as Ricky Elmore (DE, Arizona), Cliff Matthews (DE, South Carolina), Brooks Reed (DE, Arizona), Jabal Sheard (DE, Pittsburgh) and Jeremy Beal (DE, Oklahoma) are clear options outside of round one and may be more likely in 2011.

Part of the LEO’s production is down to the other three defensive lineman. The Red Bryant ‘five technique’, the nose tackle and the three technique need to take up blocks to create the edge one-on-one match ups. It also carries significance against the run, with the right end being a lighter player – you need size among the interior.

Losing Red Bryant had an instant impact on the Seahawks. At 6-4 and 333lbs he’s about 30lbs bigger than the average five technique. His main duty appeared to be setting an edge against the run, essentially making a front-three with the interior lineman and offering some pass rush qualities (Bryant flashed an unexpected quality in this area before his injury).

I don’t expect the Seahawks to move away from that too much. We can look at traditional five-techniques and be fooled into thinking they ‘fit’ this Seattle defensive scheme purely due to position name. That isn’t strictly true – any candidate will either need the size that Bryant has or an ability to offer similar qualities (ability to move inside, stout against the run). I can see the Seahawks compensating on the size to draft a guy who offers a better pass rush – but they’d still need to play above their size.

Cameron Jordan (DE, California) would be ideal in that sense. He’s playing at about 285lbs which is considerably smaller than Bryant. However, he’s strong enough in the upper body and wise enough with his angles to make up for the 50lbs drop. His ability as a pass rusher would be a major upgrade over Bryant’s. As a partnership you could get flexible – moving Bryant inside sometimes on passing downs, disguising defensive calls and spelling Bryant with Jordan to get more out of both prospects.

The only problem is – Jordan’s stock has never been higher. A lot of blogs (this one included) have graded Jordan in the top 10-15 for a good few weeks. He flew under the radar until the Senior Bowl – where he exploded onto the scene. He will not last anywhere near the #25 pick now the secret is out.

What about alternatives in round one? Muhammad Wilkerson is a fast riser who’s moving up many boards. He’s played end and tackle for Temple this year and recording ten sacks has boosted him possibly into top-20 consideration.

There’s a fair chance he could last until the #25 pick and like Jordan – he offers that flexibility to play more than one position. He’s playing at around 305lbs, which is still smaller than Bryant but a step up from the California prospect.

The likes of JJ Watt, Cameron Heyward and Adrian Clayborn are capable orthodox five techniques for 3-4 teams, but the Seahawks scheme is anything but orthodox. I wouldn’t consider any likely options for the Seahawks. Watt and Heyward are not big enough. In particular I’m a big fan of Watt (not so much Heyward) but I can’t see them in this scheme. Clayborn is perhaps more likely due to his pass rushing qualities, but he’s better as a power end in the 4-3 or a pure five technique.

Depth at the position is crucial and I’m not sure the Seahawks will rely on Kentwan Balmer like they did in 2010. Christian Ballard (DT, Iowa), Jarvis Jenkins (DT, Clemson), Lawrence Guy (DT, Arizona State) and Terrell McClain (DT, USF) are possible transition options ala Bryant outsie of the first round.

In my latest mock draft I touted the possibility that the Seahawks could draft a nose tackle. In the right scheme, a good nose tackle can define a defense. While the Seahawks don’t run a pure 3-4 defense, I certainly believe a stud NT can make a huge difference. If he can be a dominating run stuffer and consistently carry two blockers – that’ll free up the LEO and three technique to get into the backfield.

The team felt the departure of Colin Cole through injury and struggled losing his size inside. With Bryant and Brandon Mebane also missing time – the team lacked quality size depth along the interior. The result was a disjointed run defense – a contrast to the team’s early success there.

Phil Taylor (DT, Baylor) is clearly the top prospect in that nose role. He’s 337lbs and carries it like a guy 30lbs lighter. He has the size to play the NT, but also the mobility and agility to maybe even play some three and five technique. Long term – he could even be an upgrade for Bryant. Both could spell each other, mixing up the two roles.

The issue of course with a guy that size is that he may only play 25-30 snaps a game. Can you really add a first round pick who plays so little? You can when you’re not picking in the top ten. If said prospect creates a lot of third and long situations, likewise it’s worth the investment.

Here’s what Scouts Inc had to say about Butler during Senior Bowl week:

“At 6-foot-3½, the thing you notice is how well he carries his 337 pounds. Compared to last year’s class, he looks more like Tennessee’s Dan Williams than Alabama’s Terrence Cody. He has used that weight well, showing a wide base and anchoring against double-teams all week as a run-stopper. He has quick feet for his size and very active hands. He has a deadly club move. Taylor is an adequate run-stopper, gives you some presence as a pass-rusher, and flashes enough lateral agility to get down the line and make tackles outside the tackle box.”

“Taylor is the top two-gap player in this class. There are character concerns (he transferred from Penn State after being dismissed from the team, and he’ll have to answer questions about that), but due to how hard it is to find guys with his strength, size and mobility who can play in the middle of the three-man line, he’s likely a late first-, early second-round pick. If he’s not a first-round pick, it won’t be because of talent.”

Pete Carroll has stressed depthon bothlines is a priority. If the defensive line needs depth at any position – this may be the answer. There aren’t a cluster of alternatives to Taylor – Kenrick Ellis (DT, Hampton) and Jerrell Powe(DT, Ole Miss) are both slated in the mid/late round range and will interest 3-4 teams. If the Baylor prospect is there in round one, it could be tough to pass.

The final position to look at is the three-technique. Brandon Mebane is a free agent, so we’ll have to monitor that situation – not easy given the CBA situation. I actually believe Mebane is better in the one-technique role or nose tackle – and losing weight to play at the three hasn’t had the expected impact. It’s a stretch to expect he’ll be asked to re-gain lost weight – but again it’s something the team may consider.

Nick Fairley and Marcell Dareus are likely top ten picks, but Corey Liuget (DT, Illinois) isn’t too far behind and has the perfect frame and skill set for Seattle’s three technique role. I’ve mocked him to the Seahawks recently and he’s an option depending on Mebane’s situation.

I’m not convinced the team keeps Mebaneand drafts for depth there in round one. Again it may be an area targetted later in the draft. Carroll will know all about Jurrell Casey (DT, USC). Drake Nevis (DT, LSU) is a three-technique but at 290lbs may be considered a bit light inside – without having the necessary height/size to play the five technique. I can see Nevis on a team like Indianapolis that values nimble lineman.

Stephen Paea (DT, Oregon State) similarly has that Nevis-like size, but actually his strengths come against the run. He’d be a good nose tackle for the Colts, but perhaps a better fit at five-technique for Seattle. It’s still a slightly awkward fit.

Overall the depth on the defensive line makes it a realistic proposition with the #25 overall pick. Defining which positions carry the value to warrant the selection and determining the areas Seattle will target remains a work in progress.

Von Miller a top-five pick? Really? Surely not?

The Senior Bowl is a fantastic opportunity for the top senior prospects to showcase their skills, put their name on the map and improve their draft stock.

It’s also an opportunity for snap judgements and an awful lot of unnecessary hype.

I read a tweet yesterday that nearly made me drop my phone. ESPN insider and all round brilliant reporter Adam Schefter posted the following:

“To those asking where Texans A+M LB Von Miller will go in the NFL draft, the early signs are, Top 5 pick.”

This isn’t likely Schefter’s opinion rather information he’s received from people watching work outs and from inside the NFL. I suspect it’s hyperbole.

Miller is a guy I’ve been watching for two years now. After a 17-sack season in 2009 it seemed likely he’d declare for the subsequent draft. Then he received a third-round grade from the draft committee and returned to Texas A&M for his senior year.

At no point in watching tape of Miller did I think he looked like a top-five pick.

Here’s what I saw: excellent speed used to consistently exploit college opponents by rushing the edge. The huge production is emphasis on that and his skills in coverage gradually kept improving. At the same time I saw only a marginal first round prospect.

He’s about 238lbs and it showed sometimes when he took on big offensive lineman. I’m not even talking about elite athletes at the position – just big bodied guys who could just use their size and strength to knock him out of the play. In the NFL, he’s not going to be able to rely on edge speed over and over again. The big guys will also be elite athletes, capable of restricting his edge speed and dominating him due to size. He can’t play defensive end or LEO because teams will target him again and again against the run. Miller will just get washed out and become a liability.

Can he play outside linebacker in the 3-4? Maybe – because playing in space will allow him to pick his gap and use the speed to rush the passer. He’s no slouch in coverage – but again he’s a bit of a one-trick pony. It’s all about his nimble frame and speed which is fine in college, but won’t be in the NFL.

For me his best fit is at OLB in the 4-3, but even then he’s under sized and will need to adapt to that position. He’s about 12lbs lighter than draft bust Aaron Maybin (taken 11th overall by Buffalo) who has struggled to have any impact at all because he can’t rely on speed and quicks alone at the next level.

He’s got mixed reviews from the Senior Bowl. Some say he’s been the star of the show, others (like Tony Pauline) have been reporting a struggle:

“Not a good day for a guy that’s projected to be a 3-4 OLB.  Was easily controlled by blocks all day and at one point got annihilated by Luke Stocker.  Showed decent skills in coverage when he had to move in reverse. Miller was brought over to the pass rush drills to showcase his talents, which were average at best.”

The hype surrounding Von Miller sums up the issue I have with the Senior Bowl. Tape is generally pushed aside while we watch guys work out in unnatural situations. A bit of talk about a prospect performing well suddenly leads to a power surge.

It’s a similar situation for Colin Kaepernick (QB, Nevada). Suddenly he’s a second round pick because he’s flashed a strong arm this week. Suspect mechanics are seemingly ignored because the guy can throw it downfield under no pressure. Titus Young (WR, Boise State) apparently hugged Mike Mayock today because of a positive review on the NFL Network which has boosted his stock.

Some prospects will thrive in isolated work outs and walkthroughs. While you need to be prepared to be impressed and possibly proven wrong – I just don’t think you can beat watching game tape. When I watched the tape – I saw a lot to like about Von Miller, but also a lot of concerns about how he translates to the next level. I wouldn’t roll the dice on an under sized project 4-3 linebacker in round one.

Can Von Miller be a top 10-15 pick? Sure – why not? That kind of pick has been made before. It’d be a huge mistake in my opinion though. I’m also willing to be proven wrong, so we’ll see how it works out.