I’ve got last night’s Texas A&M vs Oklahoma State game saved and ready to watch. I’ll have some thoughts on Aggies QB Jerrod Johnson and DE Von Miller tomorrow. Johnson is a strange one, because there are things I like about his play but there’s some pretty basic technical issues which will keep him in mid/late round consideration. Von Miller isn’t a first round pick for me, despite his 17 sack season in 2009. He went into last night’s game looking for his first sack this year, but has been struggling with an injury recently. What about tomorrow’s games? This is what I’ll be watching…

Miami at Clemson
From a Seahawks perspective, it’s another chance to watch Allen Bailey (DE, Miami) and Brandon Harris (CB, Miami). Both players would fill holes on the Seahawks defense, with Bailey a more athletic alternative to Red Bryant at five technique. However, he was largely unimpressive against Pittsburgh last week and spent a lot of time on the sidelines. I’m not convinced he’s a first round pick. Harris passes the eyeball test as a 5’11”, 195lbs corner. Seattle won’t draft anyone shorter at the position. DeAndre McDaniel (S, Clemson) is a highly talented safety who got eight interceptions last year. He’s an unlikely choice for Seattle after taking Earl Thomas last year, but he’s worth watching. He could be a first rounder, although off the field issues need to be explained.

Texas vs Oklahoma
Watch Jeremy Beal (DE, Oklahoma) in this one. He’s a 6’3″, 263lbs sack artist who could fit at the LEO position. He’s got to the QB five times already this year to add to his eleven sacks totalled in 2009. Beal isn’t an elite speed rusher and he doesn’t carry a relentless motor, but he just finds ways to get to the quarterback. I’d give him an early second round grade right now but if he keeps getting sacks, he could be a late first rounder. Travis Lewis (OLB, Oklahoma) is one of the best players in the country and a candidate to go in the top-15 picks. He put on a clinic against Florida State and should be easily noticeable on the Sooners defense in this one. Texas have a talented secondary which will be well tested in this game, watch Aaron Williams (CB) and Curtis Brown (CB) – two six foot corner’s.

Florida at Alabama
It’ll be pretty difficult to concentrate on anything other than another big 100+ yard performance from Mark Ingram – probably the surest thing in the 2011 draft. He’ll put on a typically brilliant display and lead ‘Bama’s offense to another victory. There are other prospects to watch, such as Florida’s excellent corner Janoris Jenkins (CB). He could go as high as the top ten and has two picks and a TD already this year. He’s another corner who passes Seattle’s size test (5’11”, 184lbs). Jenkins could line up against Alabama’s top wide out Julio Jones who himself is a potential high pick next April. Marcell Dareus (DT, Alabama) needs a performance after suspension and injury has stalled his start to 2010. He has top-ten potential, but needs to bring it.

Stanford at Oregon
I discussed the importance of this game for Andrew Luck earlier in the week. This is the game with the most intrigue for me on Saturday. Can Luck keep up with Oregon’s high scoring offense? Can he win a game with his arm in a difficult environment? Is Luck isn’t a bit over rated? Are we waiting for his game that matches Locker vs Nebraska or Ponder vs Oklahoma? He’s had games in the past where he’s struggled with accuracy and missed a lot of throws. If he can prove doubters wrong this weekend, the road to the #1 overall pick next year is clear. If he struggles, it could be another weekend spent discussing disappointing quarterback play.

What else to watch?

Jake Locker (QB) vs USC – can he bounce back from a fortnight ago and get another key win over the Trojans?

Akeem Ayers (DE/OLB) vs Washington State – this should be a pretty comfortable win for the in-form Bruins, so can Ayers stand out and continue to make big plays?

Michael Floyd (WR) vs Boston College – Floyd is getting into his stride and starting to improve under Notre Dame’s new coaching staff. He needs to keep going.

A.J. Green (WR) vs Colorado – returns from suspension, but will stuttering Georgia hurt his stock? He’s got elite potential.

Can Andrew Luck (left) lead the Cardinals to a big win?

After four weeks of the CFB season, Andrew Luck hasn’t really been tested. Stanford have coasted to big wins against Sacramento State, UCLA, Wake Forest and Notre Dame. With a 19th ranked rushing attack that’s averaged 223 yards per game, they’ve been able to control the clock and ease to four wins. Luck’s numbers in the two tougher games (UCLA and Notre Dame) were unremarkable – he completed just 46% of his passes against the Bruins in a 151-yard performance. Against the Irish, he threw two picks for 238 yards and completed 19 of 32 overall. When I’ve watched Luck the words ‘game manager’ jump out at you and the numbers don’t do anything to dispel that. 

However, this weekend’s test at Oregon could define his draft potential either way. The Ducks are also unbeaten with an even better ground game (4th overall, averaging 317 yards per game) and they’ve scored more points than any team in the country (58 points per game). They haven’t faced an opposition like Stanford yet, but clearly they’re a prolific offense who will score points. Stanford and their quarterback will have to keep up. 

If Oregon go ahead early, this will test Luck. If it gets to 14-0 or worse, Stanford won’t be able to chip away on the ground and manage the situation. They’ll be forced to pass and Luck will have to take the initiative. When Florida State traveled to Oklahoma in week two, Seminoles quarterback Christian Ponder couldn’t keep up with the Sooners offense and became eratic in a performance that hindered his stock. Luck will have to cope better than Ponder did that day to maintain lofty consideration as a potential #1 pick. 

This is essentially the issue I have with Luck. Whilst he’ll probably ride a winning record with Stanford and go to a Bowl game, when has he been the focal point? Toby Gerhart was the star last season and almost won the Heisman. There’s no Gerhart now, but in his place are a stable or running backs who have maintained the high level of ground production. Can Luck stay with a big scoring, highly ranked offense like Oregon’s? When the situation demands he use his arm regularly, can he complete +60% of his passes and get the big yards? 

Last year Luck put in one of his best performances against Oregon at home, helping the Cardinal to a high scoring win 51-42, completing twelve passes for 251 yards and a pair of scores. On the road he generally struggled – 40% completion rate against Oregon State in a comprehensive defeat and 48% completions against Washington State in a mediocre win. If he can go to Oregon and put up solid numbers, that will do a lot for his draft prospects. Winning the game isn’t crucial on a personal level, he just needs to perform and show he’s more than just a game-manager.

This week’s update comes two-days early. Mock drafts this early are always difficult and this remains a loose projection at best. We’re still yet to see the likes of A.J. Green and Robert Quinn in action this year due to suspension, although Green returns after week four. However, I’m starting to feel like we’re getting there slowly and some prospects are starting to make their move to secure high grades. You can see the updated mock draft by clicking here.

First the positives…

Mark Ingram deserves to go as early as I’ve placed him. I truly believe he’s a star in the making and he could be the best overall prospect in this draft class. It’s close between Ingram, Patrick Peterson (CB, LSU) and A.J. Green (WR, Georgia) – all underclassmen. I have no issues placing a running back this early because he’s good enough. He’ll be a star. I went back and watched last year’s BCS Title game against Texas. I went back and watched ‘Bama’s win over Florida. I watched Saturday’s win at Arkansas. Ingram will start in week one next year (health permitting) and he will win games of football.

I’m not convinced Ryan Kerrigan will necessarily go this early due to a lack of elite edge burst, but he’s moving up the board. With five sacks so far, if he continues to produce his stock will continue to rise. He’s a relentless pass rusher with solid production who’s compared favorably to Chris Long. Kerrigan won’t go 2nd overall like Long and some teams will be wary of the comparison. However – it could help him crack the first round and potentially go top-15.

No pick for the Seahawks this time round as it’s only a top-15 projection. This is the first time since the blog started that I haven’t included Seattle in a mock, because they’ve always been amongst the early selections. Whilst they share a lead of the NFC West and with Arizona scraping past Oakland and St. Louis, ranking Seattle #1 in the NFC West is enough to see them picking 21st overall at best. Therefore, no pick this time round – which is a positive for the team’s ambitions.

Now the negatives…

The quarterback debate continues to rage on. Here’s the issue I have – for differing reasons I have major concerns with Andrew Luck, Ryan Mallett and Jake Locker – the only three realistic candidates to go early in 2011. Although concerns also surfaced on Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez and Sam Bradford, none of the previous mentioned trio match up to the most recent top draft picks at the position. You have to believe one will go early, probably even first overall, because of the importance of the QB position. I’ve gone with Andrew Luck not because I’m high on his pro-prospects (I think he could be Joey Harrington mark II). I’ve gone with Luck because whilst he carries the lowest ceiling, he also offers the least risk. One poor team will believe he can start early because of that, alongside his humble personality, intelligence and winning season with Stanford. In reality, I’m not sure he isn’t just a game-manager in college who is yet to dominate with his arm and whom relies on one of the best ground games in CFB.

I’ve also left Locker and Mallett out of the top-15 for the first time despite a few teams really needing a franchise quarterback. Locker may fall because for me, despite his huge potential he simply is nowhere near ready to start in the NFL. He absolutely must have a two-year redshirt period similar to Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. Of course, all rookie QB’s could use that. However, Locker needs it more than most. That could easily put some teams off and lead to a slight fall into the 20’s. Mallett has great physical qualities but he too has a lot to learn and concerns remain about his character and ability to lead a franchise. A lot of quarterback needy teams didn’t entertain selecting Jimmy Clausen last year, so it wouldn’t surprise me if they were over cautious again in 2011.

Alabama running back Mark Ingram will be a star in the NFL

The Seahawks have many issues at the moment as the rebuild continues under Pete Carroll. Clearly the team is in need of someone capable of rushing the passer consistently and effectively. Whilst the Seahawks have found production from their young group of receivers, do they still lack that #1 guy that can scare teams into greater coverage? Do they need more in the secondary? And perhaps more than anything – can they answer the question about the long term future at quarterback?

Having said that, the first round of the draft isn’t the only way or necessarily the easiest way to fill those holes. I wrote at the end of August about how difficult it has been in recent years to find effective pass rushers in the first round. This year’s group of big name quarterbacks have flattered to deceive and you have to ask whether the Seahawks could trust their long term success in the hands of Locker, Luck or Mallett in round one. When I watch the Seahawks’ offense I still think it lacks an identity. Of course there’s the recognisable presence of Matt Hasselbeck, but at 35-years of age he’s more game-manager than game-winner these days. There’s promise amongst the young receivers, but not a dominant playmaker. Like most teams it’s a running back committee, yet none of the backs have stood out in a struggling run game.

Finding one guy to hang your hat on would, for me, be of tremendous benefit for the Seahawks. Mark Ingram (RB, Alabama) could be that guy.

Of course it’s not the en vogue suggestion these days is it? People often don’t want to discuss drafting a running back early. The feeling is that backs can be found later on and that the days of one franchise runner carrying the load are in the past. None of that is false. Why I want to argue the case for going against this though is my belief that Ingram is capable of lifting a team so much from day one that it’d potentially give the Seahawks an identity as soon as the pick was called.

He may have the complete package. He’s a thick-set guy with ideal size (5’10”, 215lbs) who owns the kind of one-cut ability needed to thrive in a ZBS. He’s got great vision and patience and consistently sets up his blocks better than a lot of guys in the NFL. He’ll run over you or around you – it’s a great no-nonsense style and determination to get the job done which is emphasised by how difficult he is to bring down. Watch Ingram after the initial contact – even on a good solid tackle he’ll make an extra buck or two. He’s got a tremendous stiff arm and hand punch to keep away defenders, not to mention the perfect balance even when he’s knocked off track. Ball security – one fumble in his career so far. That’s it. Need him to pass protect? You get the sense he enjoys it (almost) as much as he does running for a big play downfield. Does he have elite speed? No. He isn’t Chris Johnson in that aspect. Still, he’s plenty fast enough and shows quick acceleration to burst through an opening and kicks through the gears quickly. His top end speed isn’t CJ2k, but his burst should secure a solid time at the combine next year over 40-yards.

In two games this year against Duke and Arkansas, he has 308 yards and four touchdowns. This follows his Heisman winning season last year when he recorded 1658 rushing yards and 17 TD’s, accompanying three further scores in the passing game.

My only concern coming into this year was whether the physical style might lead to injuries – and he missed the first two games this year with a knock. I guess that will happen. Knowshon Moreno had a physical style at Georgia but never so much as left the field after a hard hit. He comes into the NFL and has issues galore. It’s the risk you take when drafting a running back, but it’s important to remember one of the knocks on Adrian Peterson was his durability and he’s had barely any issues at the next level.

Drafting Mark Ingram won’t solve Seattle’s pass rush problems, it won’t secure the quarterback of the future. What it does secure is someone to build around on offense the same way Minnesota built around AP. The Seahawks can’t go out and sign Steve Hutchinson at guard, but if they continue to improve the offensive line (and it’s been a vast improvement so far, even without Russell Okung) there’s no reason why Ingram can’t come into the league and have the same impact as Peterson. He might be that good. Is it a luxury? Some would say yes. I would say no – because whilst like anyone else you’d love to see questions answered elsewhere first, sometimes a guy is too good at his position to ignore. Running back might be a more neglected position these days, but Ingram is going to be a star. That warrants consideration.

Other notes

– Akeem Ayers (DE/OLB, UCLA) was at his dominant best this weekend as the Bruins stunned Texas. He had a sack, forced fumble and an interception on the day. I’ve written about him a lot on this blog, but he’s one to watch. He can play the LEO position in Seattle and he’s just a fantastic playmaker. He can rush off the edge with his hand in the dirt and he can drop back and cover. He’s the kind of guy you bring in and spend days working out packages to maximise his talent.

– Ryan Kerrigan (DE, Purdue) might be starting to demand greater respect. He was given a third-round grade by the draft committee last year and returned to Purdue. It’s important to remember that Aaron Curry was given the same grade once, returned to Wake Forest and ended up being a top five pick. Kerrigan may not go that far up the boards, but he’s drawn strong comparisons to Chris Long (2nd overall, 2008) and has five sacks in four games, including two more this weekend against Toledo. He’s a relentless pass rusher off the edge who some believe can be a 10-sack a year guy in the NFL.

– Patrick Peterson (CB, LSU) had another big punt return touchdown this weekend against West Virginia. Aside from being virtually a lockdown corner so far this year, he’s registered over 500 return yards and two interceptions. He’s big (6’1″, 221lbs) fast and athletic and will set the combine on fire next year. There’s no doubt in my mind he’s a lock for the top ten next April.

Big game tonight between Pittsburgh and Miami. Keep an eye on Jonathan Baldwin (WR, Pitt), Brandon Harris (CB, Miami) and Allen Bailey (DE, Miami). I’ll have some thoughts on the blog tomorrow. In the meantime, here’s some links worth checking out:

Wes Bunting speculates on potential character issues for Ryan Mallett: “I talked to a scout the other day that said ‘I got stuff on Mallett that nobody knows about.’ There are a lot of concerns on him personally.” It’s not the first time stuff like this has been mentioned, but so far further details haven’t appeared.

Draft Insider adds to this subject in conversation with SI.com’s Tony Pauline, “The feeling down in Arkansas is that he’s just a different type of person“. Pauline also says Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford) will declare for the 2011 draft.

Bunting also publishes his top-20 Senior prospects. Prince Amukamara (CB, Nebraska) tops the list with Adrian Clayborn (DE, Iowa) at #2. Jake Locker appears at #17.

Chris Steuber compares Purdue defensive end Ryan Kerrigan to Chris Long. The Rams DE was drafted second overall by St. Louis in 2008 and Kerrigan has a similar frame and motor. Steuber suggests Kerrigan could enjoy a similar rise up draft boards and be a high pick. Right now, I think he’s a borderline late first round pick at best. However, if he continues to register sacks (three so far) he might enjoy a rise. Long has struggled in the NFL so far and I wonder if teams will be put off by the comparison.

Mock the Draft looks at Arizona quarterback Nick Foles and reviews whether he deserves to be discussed alongside the bigger names – Luck, Locker, Ponder and Mallett. “Leading up to the Wildcats’ Saturday night matchup with Iowa, the buzz on Foles this season was minimal after playing lowly Toledo and the Citadel. After dismantling Iowa with 303 yards passing and two touchdowns, the buzz on Foles is that of an angry swarm of bees.”

Aaron Aloysius offers a 2011 mock draft with the Seahawks taking Alabama wide-out Julio Jones. As with my own mock draft, Andrew Luck goes first overall to the Bills.

Walter Cherepinsky updates his 2011 mock draft and has the Seahawks taking Jake Locker 6th overall. The Buffalo Bills take Andrew Luck with the #1 pick.

Mel Kiper publishes a new big board, with Jake Locker dropping from the top spot down to #4. There aren’t many other changes, but it’s good to see Akeem Ayers (DE/LB, UCLA) getting some attention. Clemson DE Da’Quan Bowers appears for the first time after a three-sack start to the season. I’ve added a video of Kiper and Todd McShay discussing Jake Locker and other issues for ESPN.

For my latest 2011 mock draft, click here
We’re three weeks into the CFB season and I’m still finding it hard to judge the 2011 draft. When I wrote my first 2009 mock draft I had Ndamukong Suh, Sam Bradford and Gerald McCoy in the top five. Dez Bryant, Russell Okung and Derrick Morgan all featured early with the likes of Eric Berry, Trent Williams, C.J. Spiller and Joe Haden all amongst the top-20 from day one. Even a young playmaker featured going by the name of Earl Thomas.

There are plenty of ‘big names’ that could be high picks next year, but placing them is nearly impossible at this stage. A cluster of suspensions have clouded some prospects’ stock, whilst also robbing us of the opportunity to watch them in action. Inconsistent play hasn’t helped either and a lot of the top prospects haven’t set the world on fire to start the 2010 CFB season.

If Buffalo select first overall, surely they’ll take a quarterback? How could they avoid the position? Would they seriously risk missing out on a guy like Christian Ponder at the top of round two to go in a different direction at #1? I can’t see it. In this projection I have Andrew Luck (again) at the #1 spot. I’m not convinced by the Stanford QB and I’m a little worried we’re looking at another Joey Harrington or Brady Quinn – a solid game manager who can’t translate into the pro’s. Nevertheless, some people rate him much higher than I do. He’s less risk/reward than a Locker or Mallett, but I do think he’ll need a supporting cast to be successful at the next level. We’ll see how his year continues, but a big season for Stanford probably helps his stock (as it will Mallett’s especially if he beats Alabama on Saturday).

I also wanted to use a mock to throw some names out at cornerback to keep an eye on. It’s potentially a deep class of prospects at that position and somewhere the Seahawks may target next April. Also, compiling this projection again emphasised (to me at least) the lack of top-end quality. A.J. Green has the potential to be an elite receiver, but there’s a lot of questions about the others in the top ten. There doesn’t appear to be a big difference between guys like Akeem Ayers (UCLA), Ryan Kerrigan (Purdue) and Rodney Hudson (Florida State) and the prospects taken a lot earlier. There’s a fair chance none of those three will even be first round picks.

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