There might be 31 picks in the first round this year — but there certainly won’t be 31 first round grades handed out by the teams.
This is always the case. A decent average could see around 12-18 legit first round prospects in a given draft class. Unless you’re picking very early (top-15) you’re likely facing a compromise. Do you take the best player remaining at a position of need, trade down or use your first round pick creatively?
In 2013 and 2015 the Seahawks traded their picks for proven veterans — feeling that was a better use of the resource because they weren’t going to land a first round talent. In 2014 they dropped back into round two before selecting Paul Richardson.
They haven’t always gone down that road — I’m not entirely convinced they had James Carpenter down as one of the best fifteen or so players in the draft. That was about filling a priority — taking the best run blocking tackle available to enhance a league-worst running game.
They’re unlikely to make another big trade this year — probably because they can’t afford to do so. So how likely are they to acquire a legit first round prospect with the #26 pick? And how likely are they to trade down?
In December I estimated a total of 18 first round grades for the 2016 class. Two of those players chose to return to college (Cam Sutton and Tre’Davious White). I listed a further 15 players that could realistically be considered in the first frame as a borderline ’round one’ prospect.
Today I’m going to predict a conservative tally of 14 legit first round grades. This takes into the account the likelihood the Seahawks aren’t going to seriously consider one of the top three quarterbacks. I’m also including 18 ‘borderline’ first round grades. Players they might be willing to consider in round one — or could target after a small trade down.
With so many players in the ‘borderline’ category — it probably lends itself to suggesting the Seahawks are likely to move down. However — they haven’t had a serious need (O-line) like this since 2011, where they took Carpenter to try and solve a problem. In that draft a lot of the better O-liners were off the board before Seattle’s pick and options were thin. They’re perhaps unlikely to take too many risks if there are two or three prospects they really like available at #26. Moving down a few spots and remaining in the late first round could be an option.
Legit first rounders
Offensive line
Laremy Tunsil, Taylor Decker, Jack Conklin, Shon Coleman
Tunsil’s a prototype for the position and a former 5-star recruit who’s been on a path to the NFL since High School. Decker is long and more athletic than people realise — plus he has a terrific attitude and fits Seattle’s profile for the O-line. Conklin lacks elite athleticism but plays with such a grit and determination. He wouldn’t be a left tackle in Seattle — but he could be a fantastic left guard or right tackle. Coleman’s age (24) and medical history might be a concern for some teams — but I think he’s a top-20 talent. He’s long, athletic, physical and plays with an edge.
Linebacker
Jaylon Smith, Myles Jack, Darron Lee
The Seahawks want elite speed and athleticism at linebacker. Smith (pre-injury), Jack and Lee all look like 4.4 runners. Smith was a candidate to be the best player in the draft before he hurt his knee against Ohio State. Jack is also recovering from an injury but possesses such a natural athleticism and played running back for UCLA too. Lee is a fiery competitor and an intelligent player with the speed to match.
Defensive end
Joey Bosa, DeForest Buckner, Noah Spence
Bosa could be another Robert Quinn at the next level (he’s possibly just a notch below Quinn’s level of athleticism). Buckner is a powerful, versatile D-lineman that can line up inside and out. He had major production for Oregon. There isn’t another player like Spence in the draft — he has the speed to work the edge, the hand-technique to fight off blocks and the agility to evade blockers and explode.
Defensive tackle
Sheldon Rankins
The Seahawks haven’t drafted a defensive tackle earlier than the third round and I suspect it’s because that player would need to be a very athletic, quick-twitch pass rusher that plays with gap-discipline and spirit vs the run. Rankins consistently embarrassed Graham Glasgow at the Senior Bowl with an explosive get-off, spin move, swim/rip and elite quicks. The Seahawks can find run stuffers in free agency. They struggle to find guys like this because they’re so few and far between.
Cornerback
Eli Apple, Mackensive Alexander, Jaylon Ramsey
Apple looks like he’d be a perfect fit for the Seahawks. He keeps everything in front and doesn’t get beat deep. On top of that he appears to pass the 32-inch arm test and he’s a great athlete. There’s so much potential here. Alexander might not pass the length test but I’ll reserve judgement until the combine. He’s sparky, physical and a great cover corner. Ramsey won’t play CB for every team but his physical style would work well in Seattle.
Borderline first rounders
Offensive line
Jason Spriggs, Nick Martin, Cody Whitehair, Ronnie Stanley
Spriggs reminds me a little of Nate Solder who the Seahawks apparently liked in 2011. He’s long and athletic with upside and could play right tackle. Nick Martin might be the most accomplished O-liner in the draft. He’s a plug-in-and-play center who gets the job done. Whitehair needs time to adjust to center but has the balance, frame and physicality to be a safe pick. Stanley plays with inconsistent effort and someone needs to light a fire under him. He has the athletic upside to stick in round one — but he could fall.
Linebacker
Leonard Floyd, Kyler Fackrell, Deion Jones
Floyd is pencil thin and hasn’t always looked great rushing the passer (see: Shon Coleman blocking him into the car park). He is a terrific athlete though — in one game he covered a teams #1 receiver on a deep route at 6-4 and 231lbs. Fackrell is just a constantly disruptive pass-rushing force — a splash-play specialist. Jones won’t get many first round grades but his fantastic suddenness, fluidity and all-round athleticism could put him near the top of Seattle’s board.
Defensive tackle
Vernon Butler, Andrew Billings, Robert Nkemdiche, Jarran Reed, A’Shawn Robinson
This is a tough one to gauge. Will they take a bigger, non-quick-twitch interior D-lineman? Butler is intriguing because he combines size, length and quicks to show flashes of Muhammad Wilkerson. He’s still a 325lbs defensive tackle and that’s not something the Seahawks have pursued early. Billings is very strong and athletic but doesn’t play with any kind of discipline and that’s a concern. Nkemdiche might be struck off many boards for off-field concerns despite his massive upside. Reed is a pure run-stopper but plays with his hair on fire. Robinson coasts through a lot of games. He’s an incredible athlete for his size but how badly does he want to be great?
Running back
Ezekiel Elliott
Elliott does everything well. He doesn’t go down on first contact, he can be a home-run hitter, he pass-blocks very well, he’s a threat to catch passes out of the backfield and he makes things happen. He’s the only running back in this class that deserves to go in the first frame.
Wide receiver
Will Fuller, Corey Coleman, Laquan Treadwell, Michael Thomas
Fuller’s suddenness and elite speed to separate and explode will surely be coveted by teams in the top-25. Coleman isn’t far behind as a sparky, athletic playmaker that can make the circus catch and be a production machine. Treadwell is Mr. Consistency but might drop a little if he runs in the 4.6’s or 4.7’s. Thomas is a big target with great agility. The stop-and-go route he put on Kendall Fuller was a thing of beauty.
Safety
Darian Thompson
He had a terrific Senior Bowl — flashing range and closing speed. He’s a playmaker in the secondary and had five picks and two forced fumbles in 2015. He has the size (6-2, 210lbs) to play up at the line if needed. Thompson is an ascending talent and appears to be working his way into first round territory.
I’m curious if you have seen this from WalterFootball.com :
One of the happiest stories in college football in recent years has been the successful comeback of Auburn offensive tackle Shon Coleman. In 2011, Coleman underwent treatment for leukemia, and after beating cancer, he returned to the field without any issues the past two seasons. The 6-foot-6, 310-pounder was a productive blocker for the Tigers and he decided to skip his senior year to enter the 2016 NFL Draft. Some media pundits have projected Coleman to go in the first or second round, but the teams we spoke to haven’t graded him that high.
When this draft writer added Coleman to the 2016 Offensive Tackle Rankings, I pegged him in the Round 3-5 range. Thus, I was surprised to see some media pundits putting him in the first or second round. I thought maybe they’re seeing something I didn’t, so I checked with sources on where they were grading Coleman.
A few teams said they had him in the fourth round. They feel that Coleman is limited as a player. He has great size, but is only just an average athlete. He gets movement in the ground game and his run blocking is much better than his pass protection. They don’t feel he can play left tackle in the NFL, so they project him as a right tackle.
Another team had a more optimistic view of Coleman, grading him as a late-second, early third-rounder. They feel that Coleman can play tackle or guard in the NFL. However, they think he should not start immediately and needs a year of coaching to get better before he sees the field.
One could make the argument that Coleman should have returned for his senior year, but after what he went through early on in college, it is definitely understandable that he wouldn’t take an injury risk by returning. Perhaps he will go late in the second, but even if he’s a mid-rounder, Coleman is an inspiration in what he accomplished.
http://walterfootball.com/nfldraftrumormill.php
Thoughts?
I respectfully disagree with everything written there.
Thanks! Was just curious. I was going say I have complete faith in JS but then again he did draft Britt in the 2nd…so here is hoping he has learned from past mistakes and my faith in him is rewarded with good draft picks! Though my current line of hoping has us re-signing Okung and us targeting interior O-line upgrades in FA and the draft. Or your Panthers-like method of replacing our OT if Okung isn’t re-signed. But hey IF Coleman was to drop to the 3rd or 4th..would be sweet to grab him so low.
To be fair, these aren’t his opinions but rather (allegedly) NFL Front Office opinions. Which, if true, is great for the Seahawks. Coleman in the second round would be awesome.
Sure — but with the greatest respect to Charlie Campbell, what’s his track record like on these types of things?
Also it’s important to remember that misdirection will be rampant the next few months, with Coleman and every other player. 1) Why would any team want to share their draft homework and 2) if a team liked Coleman, it might not help but could only benefit by sharing the opinion that he is just a fourth round talent with issues
Obj was projected in the 4th at this time as well
Yah, misdirection and disinformation. You nailed it sdcoug
I wonder how high up the board Coleman ranks for the seahawks. A potentially great player at potentially a great need. Based on Coleman’s run blocking I would even take him over Tunsil. In this draft would be higher on their board if they see it the same way?
I can say with certainty that Rob’s track record as a talent evaluator and a mock drafter is far superior to the folks at Walter Football. We really appreciate all the data they gather for us, weigh-ins, etc, but their evaluations are not in the same league as Rob’s.
Truth.
“consensus” might be the better word over “legit”, the latter will be determined in time. But either way, yes, it’s nearly always some number under 32
Consensus suggests it’s a league-wide thing though. I wanted to focus on the Seahawks and separate ‘legit’ first rounders from ‘borderline’ first rounders.
The one area that JS has struggled in drafting talent is the OLine. They spent a 6th overall on Okung and he has been decent but not stellar. After him every pick Moffit, Britt, Carpenter etc have been busts for where they were drafted. I am not sure if it is because Cable is making the picks but whatever it is I hope they switch things up this year and have some new view points.
I am not joking Rob your OL scouting has been stellar and all you get is some game tape and access to combine and Senior Bowl etc.
Are there any Nfl scouts from England? Maybe the Hawks need to be trendsetters there as well!
With the talent and depth to this OL class particularly inside there is no excuse for not getting at least one starter and one guy who will compete to start on our OL. Anything less should be considered a failure.
I’m certainly open to being the first NFL scout from England (and the Seahawks like to be trendsetters) but I won’t hold out any hope of the phone ringing with a Washington area code any time soon 🙂
That certainly seems to be your #1 position of accurate career projections.
What are you specifically looking for that allows you to successfully gauge these guys given all the variables like level of competition and spread offenses etc?
I think you just look for the obvious things. You watch how they perform against their best three opponents (individually or team), you see if they utilise their skill set properly (if you’re long, force outside and extend, don’t get beat inside), do they finish blocks and play beyond the whistle, do they have a willingness to go to the second level and take pleasure from it? Do they play with an edge? Can they maximise leverage and win with pad level, a strong punch and when they engage does a DL stay blocked? The kick-slide doesn’t need to be pretty (see: Ereck Flowers) but is it effective so a player can move, set, play with balance and mirror? Even if they’re not pancaking guys in the run game can they turn a DL to get them off balance and open up a crease? There are other things too.
Would someone please forward Rob’s info to JS!
Do you see Spriggs as this type of OL? On tape, I don’t see it.
You should plan a trip next year if possible to Senior Bowl or Combine and at least meet with them. I am not joking I think you have an eye for line play on both sides of the ball. Maybe it is only a hobby but if not I hope you give it a shot. Wish they would check your scouting reports this year because this draft they really need to hit on OL.
If somehow they came out of this draft with your two favourites Coleman and Martin in Rd 1/2 then I truly believe our OL would be set for the next 5 years when you add them to Gilliam, Glowinski and a solid veteran leader for the 5th spot,
It’s a nice thought Trevor and I appreciate the kind words. I’m not sure John Schneider would particularly want to employ a British blogger with an unhealthy obsession for writing about the draft but John if you’re out there — I’m hear for you buddy 🙂
On a serious note I am hoping to attend the Senior Bowl next year to be able to do some live blogging.
Sweet! Hoping that comes to fruition for ya my man.
If only they had listened to your Bitonio Landry advice as opposed to Britt Richardson.
Yep very true Lamtermac or Bitonio and Martavius Bryant who would have been there without a trade up and has the take the top off speed like PRich.
That would be awesome!
That’d be awesome if you made it to the Senior Bowl next year!
That would be great for Rob and for the Seahawks. Just wondering where that would leave me during draft season when I need a great Seahawksdraftblog to read everyday?
If Treadwell runs under 4.5 at the combine he is a definite RD#1 talent and clearly the best WR in this draft class IMO.
He’s the best if he runs 4.6
Not crazy about his route running, tends to round his routes. If he’s the #1 receiver in the draft this is a massive drop in talent from the last 2 years.
I see DeAndre Hopkins all day I’d take him top 15
Deandre …I believe we passed on him too in the draft
I think LB’s Myles Jack and Jaylon Smith are the two best prospects in this class.
If I was Tennessee, I’d take Myles Jack with the no. 1 overall pick. Just a thouroughly unique prospect.
Now this I can get behind. Especially Myles Jack. He looks like he could be a generational talent LB in terms of ceiling.
I think the best way to improve this team is to make the OLINE better but adding rookies might not really be the way to do it and even if we use picks on the online they might not work out the only OLINE men that the Hawks picked that has been really good was a top ten pick and that’s Russell Okung every other line men other then Okung has been mediocre at best after a position switch or conversion or an absolute bust altogether. Drafting o line men has been the teams big a Achilles heel in the draft and its every round n range they have failed in 1st round RT they had to move him to LG and he was average after that and spent most of his career here with people begging for an upgrade, Justin Britt is a second round pick that while still early in his career has already had to move positions and hasn’t attained even average level play yet. John Moffit was a third round pick whom they misjudged his love for the game and is now a journeymen on his third or fourth team. The fourth round they spent a couple picks one of which was already cut once and was freely available to any team in the league and nobody took a shot. In the later rounds and udfa they have had a little better luck adding sweezy and Bailey two players who defiantly exceed expectations but have barley even achieved the average mark in there play and are defiantly not players we would welcome back in prominent roles.
There are signs of hope of course Gilliam is a player we hope can play on the left side after earning the honor of not being the worst member of last years OLINE in his first year playing on the right side. Glowinski appears to have the skill to atleast match Sweezy and may be able to become a solid starter. Skokie is a project and as such the hope is there but there have been many projects before that have failed and few that have succeeded so while hope might be high expectations should probably be low I mean really he would be exceeding expectations just to be as good as Alvin Bailey has been.
Now here we are going into the offseason with big question marks on the OLINE. It strikes me that there are many options and paths to go down be it throughing draft capital on the pile and seeing if they can make a breakthrough with young players or they can bring back the guys from last year and hope consistency can make the weakest unit on our team at least average, or they can try and find stop gap options on the cheap. Or they can try some combination of the three perhaps bringing back one of our ufas, using a high pick, and getting a veteran. Either way what they do with the OLINE and how effective the strategy they use is I think will be the key to the next year and will determine if we can get back to the ship or if we’re watching super Sunday from the shore.
stop gap options has arguably been where they have had the biggest success, when you consider giacomina was a practice squad player before he came here an transformed into a 5 million dollar RT, Paul mcquestion while not dominating played a huge role in the super season. That’s still only two hits and there is of course a flop in there history with this path in gallery and Winston who were both DOA although gallery atleast made it to the regular season.
They have not really ever added a big name FA in his prime and perhaps that’s the road they go down this year but that will cost dollars and dollars are limited you probably could add on big name prime FA to the line but it had better be the right guy and with how poorly this FO has been at picking the right guy at OLINE is that what we want them to do? And what do you do with the rest of the line if you spend your FA money on a prime time OLINE men your back to the stop gap,draft,consistency models and costiancu is probably out the door and you may have more holes to fill as you will use other UFAs by putting you available cash in the OLINE position
I don’t have the right answer but damn I hope Schindler and Carroll do.
A big name OL will cost $$$$ — and dollars perhaps they don’t have.
I do think they will add a veteran OL though — just somebody at a more affordable price. I like the suggestion of Phil Loadholt if/when he’s cut by the Vikings. And they might put him at left guard too.
They will really look at players who get released, so it doesn’t mess with there comp picks. Loadholt would be perfect.
Some veteran options at a reasonable cost might be Loadholt, Wisnewski and Mathis. Maybe make up for the mistake of not signing them last year and do it this off season.
Mathis will not be a reasonable contract. The other 2 might be more than a few million, which doesn’t seem doable for CAP purposes.
Marcus Cannon is in the doghouse in NE, and may be on the way out. A disappointment, but projected well coming out of college. Guys like him, with a change of scenery, could be options.
Cannon has some talent, but I’d rather just keep Bailey. He’s cheap and can backup both T and G, with OK results. The versatility is highly valuable, and made it possible to red shirt a guy like Sokoli.
Schindler’s List. A gut wrenching drama where Johan Schindler and Pietr Caröll diligently work to prevent overlooked defensive linemen and cornerback converts from resorting to selling insurance or used cars. Coming in April of 2016.
Sorry.
Rob, if Treadwell were to fall to 26 do you think the Seahawks would be interested with him there? Some sites think he may be a middle to late first guy.
I think it’s unlikely. They love suddenness at receiver and Treadwell, for all his qualities, is a possession receiver. I can’t see them taking Treadwell (or Fuller/Coleman who I also really like) in round one with so many priorities to address in the trenches.
Are there any receivers, other than W. Fuller, that you could see them taking in the first? Recently I’ve wondered if they go o-line in the 1st if they would consider De’Runnya Wilson with their 2nd if he was available? What do you think, Rob?
I think if they go receiver it’s likely to be round four. That might be a sweet spot. Otherwise continue to collect UDFA’s (there could be some good ones this year). The more I’ve studied this OL/DL group the more I think they have to stick to the trenches early.
Rob have you looked at Pat Mcroberts? He is a guy that looks to be available around round 4. I really like him a lot and I’m interested in your thoughts on him as well.
Sorry I meant Paul Mcroberts.
I’ve watched some of his stuff. Intriguing for sure.
He reminds me somewhat of Michael Thomas with his physicality in breaking tackles and blocking. Similar frame as well.
Able to high point the ball is a good not great athlete. He would be good value with their late third picks.
Paul McRoberts is someone Seattle went and checked out back in August or September, along with 5 other teams.
IMO you won’t have to spend a 3rd on him. He’s a day 3 prospect.
Great backstory too.
“Great back story too”
Yeah that was another reason he caught my eye as the Seahawks seem to like that as well. as far as being a mentally tough guy.
What are your thoughts on him V12? Why a day three guy?
I like him a lot.
I think he’s raw as far as route running, comes from a small shool and didn’t exactly dominate, and his technique needs to be cleaned up.
Big, long, tough, good RAC, makes splash plays, can box guys out, has the deep speed.
Tons of potential, but again, he’s raw. Not a day 2 guy, but that’s fine.
I agree that both lines need to be addressed, but what I think drives this thought of mine is that if Kearse leaves then there will be a need at the WR 3 spot. K. Williams and K. Smith definitely look like they have potential, but I still think that PC’S fondness for that big-bodied WR type could impact the draft. Does that seem reasonable?
It’s not unreasonable but I suspect they haven’t completely given up on Paul Richardson plus they’ll hope Graham can return to fill the need for a big target. The question to ask IMO is what helps the Seahawks take a step forward again after 2015? Is it a new WR3 to potentially replace Kearse or is it making major upgrades to the OL and adding another pass rusher? That said, I think there’s a chance they consider adding another WR but not in the first three rounds.
Could just be a matter of circumstance (Sid and Jimmy getting hurt) but it seems that Russ has found his most success with very sudden quick dudes like Baldwin, Tate and Lockett in the 5’10-6 range.
It’ll be interesting to see if going forward they keep going and add more of these or if the do look for a power forward type.
Release, separation, and yac seem to be paramount.
Which could make someone like Pharoh Cooper, Sterling Shepard or Leontee Caroo into consideration.
Carroo and Jaydon Mickens are two of my favorite wideouts, that fit what Seattle has recently gone after.
Ohio St WR Braxton Miller is highly tempting to pull the trigger on early too.
He’s a bigger, better route running version, more mature, better teammate, high character player than Percy Harvin.
I really like Carroo to Vol alot. He just plays like a seahawk and is supposed be a real competitor and student of the game. Sounds and looks a little like a Tate clone.
The off field incident is definitely a major concern but if they check it out and they feel comfortable they may get a steal.
Those charges against him were dropped. Her mom was the acuser, and she wasn’t even there or on site.
That’s what I was thinking about too, but what has been a problem for the offense has been red zone efficiency. I think that if they made a sizable investment (sorry for the pun ) by bringing in someone like De’Runnya, and had he and Jimmy Graham as weapons for those moments then that would be something hard to stop. Any thoughts?
Yeah- I get that. I like De’Runnya Wilson.
But, I’m with Rob. I don’t think WR is a big need. Not before day 3. We’re talking about adding someone that will get 4-6 targets, presumably, and you can find a guy to fill that role and do that job from the 4th round and down.
One reason they struggle in the red zone is the O-line.
I agree that poor o-line play contributed to their red zone woes, but I also think that if they could add another big-bodied target that some of those contested teardrop passes to the back corner could become routine completions. What I’m asking is that if that kind of player is available maybe not in the 2nd necessarily, but say in the 3rd or 4th, like Martavis Bryant was, should they take him or pass?
It’s really the type of player-profile that I would like to see on the roster more than anything. Not that Jimmy Graham doesn’t bring the height, but I don’t think that he has the quickness that some of the pure wide-outside
*wide-outs have in the league*
I see what your saying.
If a guy is there there on day 3 that has that profile and skill set, yeah, take him.
Russ likes who he likes. Chemistry is elusive. He had good chemistry with Rice and Tate. He connected well with guys in the Pro Bowl! But JG, Chris Matthews, Norwood, etc. etc. have not worked.
He clearly likes Baldwin and Kearse. I would be shocked if they lose Kearse.
“Which could make someone like Pharoh Cooper, Sterling Shepard or Leontee Caroo into consideration.” Darnell
Like all 3 a lot! What happens with Kearse dictates whether or not we should even draft a WR this year. Leaning towards the thought that he’s likely on his way out. imo JS/PC have only taken WR’s in rounds 2-4 with all players coming from power 5 conferences. The round 4 players(Durham, Harper, Norwood) did absolutely nothing-horrible throwaway picks. Round 3 My guy Lockett. He’s everything as advertised and then some! Round 2 Tate was big time, PRich TBD looked good late in his rookie year-2016 is do or die for him. Judging by history we would be better off going WR in day 2, or not at all. Shepard’s skill set seems redundant to Baldwin and Lockett, and is likely to go in the 2nd round. As highly as I think of him I don’t want us spending a 2nd rounder on him. Carroo and Cooper could fall into the 3rd round, at which point we should take one, perhaps moving slightly up. I prefer Carroo. Last 2 years stats combined: 21 games 94 rec(4.48 RCG) 1895 yards(90.24 YPG) 20.16 YPC!!! 20 TDs(.95 TD/G). Production…check! Is that YPC of 20.16 a coincidence? 😉 It’s impressive at the very least. Of course there’s always UDFA’s to fall back on, which we’ve had WAY more success in finding WR’s than in day 3 picks.
I think we get a receiver only if the value is there on someone they really like
Yeah, I had the same feel. But they could use a guy with Treadwells talent in the red zone but obviously thats why we acquired Graham. Problem is we won’t know if/when or how well he recovers either though.
I do think we see a pick on either offensive or defensive line.
Honestly, I see that as a knock of Russ, until this year he hadn’t shown he is great at throwing his receivers open or trusting them, this could easily be explained by poor line play or that we have been run first. But I strongly believe that the only reason Wilson hasn’t had the same success with bigger guys is that he isn’t ready to fit the ball into those tight windows that really you cannot see, it’s very difficult to know exactly where to put the ball with big receivers. Look for his Carroll Academy training this offseason to give him more confidence in fitting the ball in.
This OT class is odd. There’s highly athletic prospects that lack grit and toughness, and there’s gritty, tough prospect that are unathletic and don’t look good fits for a ZBS.
And at least currently, the value at OT looks to be late on day 2 or day 3.
There are a lot of prospects that are nearly ideal for the Seahawks.
Nearly.
I still think my three favourite O-linemen (not including those unlikely to be available to SEA) are Coleman, Martin and Dahl. Not really a surprise that they’re also arguably three of the more polished prospects.
Very true.
Kind of feels like a year where they’re going to take guys that lack something they usually want to check off.
A lot of high upside prospects this year too. Which is usually what they take anyways, but this year there seems to be more of those guys.
However, I also think they’ll nail a couple of polished prospects as you mention, like Tyler Lockett.
I don’t think they’ll deviate too much from what they do, if ever, or change the ways the go about things though either.
Seconded
Which of those 3 has the best leadership skills?
While the O-line needs are multiple, they need one all-pro type player on the line. All the other units have a stud and obvious leader. There’s a glaring need on the O-line of leadership and elite talent.
In terms of leadership Martin is the obvious choice.
The 1st pick comes down to 1 position you want to fill. LT or C? Its either a Coleman or Martin at 26. I was very impressed with the way Nick literally walked thru the Senior Bowl showing everyone that he’s ready for the next level. This guy has the leadership we lost when Ungar left. I love a Joe Dahl never should have played the tackle spot. He’s mobile, athletic, gritt, and football savvy. He looks like a Chris Gray. You know the RG that we brought guys in to compete and he held that position for a longtime. The beginning of thia year I had the list of OL guys and I had a Conner McGovern who to me would have been a perfect RG with his power. Its a shame like with Dahl that when your the best lineman they will stick you at tackle position. I think a Connor McGovern would be a steal at round 5 pick 172 maybe.
Trading back always sounds good but it takes two to tango. If they find a partner that would be great .
I ran through a scenario today where I felt they’d really benefit from an extra fourth rounder. If they can move down a few spots and grab a fourth — there might some appeal there.
It sounds good to me. That’s where its nice if one of the QB’s fall. Then a team is more likely to jump back into round 1 like with Bridgewater and Minnesota.
Let’s say they trade back and do not take player A, who they really liked…… for a 4th rounder.
I think this is one of the few drafts I think they stand pat in the 1st round and get “their” guy.
Many teams try to get too cute trying to get draft picks, then miss who they were targeting or have another team jump them (after they trade down) and completely destroy their draft in that round. I can’t recall specifics right now, but I know the Eagles got side-swipped by Seattle one year, when they traded back and Seattle jumped them in the draft “stealing” who they were allegedly targeting.
If Martin is their OL guy in the first round and he is available. Just walk right up with the card and draft him.
I’m not sure it’s entirely true that many teams get cute, trade down and miss out on their guys. Generally the teams that move down a few spots do so because their info tells them they can or because they have 2-3 guys they like and can guarantee one of them.
If the Seahawks did move down I’m sure it’d be from a position of great confidence. They traded down twice in 2014 and still got Paul Richardson (the guy they wanted).
I hated it when they traded out of the first round. I waited 4 damn months for the draft them BAM. They trade out and I had to wait another day…lol
Yeah, it’s probably not that common. I do remember (from what I heard/read somewhere) when Holmgren did it. Needed a starting TE and really wanted Daniel Graham, traded down twice and settled for Jerramy Stevens after the Pats took Graham.
If Nkemdiche is there at 26, it’d be mighty tempting. A bit of hit or miss in Ole Miss but the hits were great.
Nkemdiche is a head case. The kind Seattle doesn’t shy away from.
The only question for me, in terms of if Seattle would like him, apart from his skill set and tremendously high ceiling, is his privileged upbringing snd background.
A bit like Johnny Manziel in that sense.
Manziel takes it to a whole new level. I don’t think this DT/DE prospect is at that level…… but it doesn’t mean he would be a fit with Seattle either. You have to question his want to or heart….. that can only be seen on tape and via face to face meetings with scouts.
Jon Ledyard recently mocked Nkemdiche to the Hawks. He thinks this is a guy Carroll wouldn’t shy away from. Personally, he makes me nervous. Would rather land Butler, or Rankins, or Robinson, or Reed, or Billings.
Evidenced by Frank Clark, Pete will not shy away from anyone. Nkemdiche, Aldon Smith, etc. Anything short of Aaron Hernandez would appear to be fair game.
Jon always mocks guys that have ‘red flags’ to Seattle.
He doesn’t scare me one bit. I don’t think PC would either. I’d prefer a Rankins, Robinson, or someone like that too.
Is he mature enough? And this locker room might be exactly what he needs.
He’d a be a monster on this line.
Nkemdiche is obviously a very talented 300 lb DLineman. What bothers me about him is the lack of production, and I don’t think he got noticeably better from when he stepped onto campus as the nations top recruit. Maybe it’s a coaching or scheme thing that hampered his ascension towards a truly dominant DT, which he has the talent to be. If Nkemdiche were to fall to us there would be a good reason behind the scenes.
Yeah, lack of production kind of scares me a bit as well, but I don’t exactly think Clark was lighting the world on fire with sacks for the Wolverines, he was a top athlete. Nkemdiche is as well.
Not to diminish the seriousness of DV charges, but there is a lot of Nkemdiche that makes me more way more nervous than Clark did. Clark was apparently a great teammate and locker room guy for Mich. There’s reports that suggest Nkemdiche cared more about his riff raff entourage at Ole Miss more than his teammates. He would play big in big games when the lime light was on, but then play down to lesser opponents.
He definitely intrigues me. There are others I would take gladly over him, but if he’s on board with the likes of those others at 26, and the Hawks did their home work, and feel like he offers the best upside, and they take him, I won’t complain. I would just hope they give Mike B and Kam a little extra front end on their deals to firmly kick him in the @ss if he starts getting sidetracked.
Rob, i never understood the “grading by round” concept especially when it is used on the top 2 rounds. Clearly, a team picking at say the 10th spot should have a list of players whose value corresponds to that position. A team picking at 26 should have a bigger list since they are picking later and there should be more players available that meet the “required value” for that pick. Some of the players that are valuable enough for a late round pick will not be on the board of a team picking early in the round so the board is set by position, not by round. I cant imagine a team picking at the 5th place to have more then 5-8 guys on their 1st round board.
Shouldn’t the board be set according to the exact draft position?
If you are going to stay at your position and have no interest in trading up or down, sure. But why limit yourself?
No, because if you’re picking 5th you’ll also be picking 5th in the second round. And if one of your first round graded players is still available in the 20’s you might want to move up and get them. Alternatively what if a team calls you up 2 minutes before you’re on the clock and offers a wonderful deal to move down 10 spots? If you’ve only graded five players in round one how do you judge whether to make the move?
……or one of your teams first round graded guys slips into the second round, then you know who to grab with your 2nd round pick at #5.
I agree that round is kind of an arbitrary way to categorize, but what really matters is that you let the tiers settle where they may according to their actual grades versus just a rank. You do the whole board because picks are tradeable.
How does Ryan Kelly stack up to Martin?
Kelly is real physical. What you’d expect from an Alabama lineman. I think Martin is on a different technical level though. Just a total natural with greater upside. Kelly for me is in the middle rounds with the potential to be a decent starter. Martin can be one of the best in the league.
Cool thanks!
A guy I think the Hawks are going to really like is the other RB out of Alabama Kenyan Drake. He can fly and looked on another level of speed at the combine. Reminds me a little of a Harvin clone less the baggage. He does have a similar injury history too unfortunately.
What round do you think he goes? He has that unique trait the Hawks seem to covet for sure. Would be a perfect 3rd down back (if he learns to blitz pickup and block)and backup kick / punt returner.
Any chance a game breaker like him might be available in the 4th?
I think he’ll be there in the 4th.
I like UCLA’s Paul Perkins, but he might go earlier than expected.
Really high on Indiana’s Jordan Howard, and ND’s CJ Prosise would be an intriguing 3rd down back. You could also split him out wide.
What do you think about Drake Vol12? I know he has some injury concerns and needs to learn how to block but he looks like a potential game breaker to me. The speed is dynamic. I bet he runs in the 4.3s
I’m not very high on Drake. His pass protection was awful. He trys to bounce everything outside.
He’s more of a ‘change of pace’ then a Seahawk 3rd down back.
Don’t get me wrong, I absolutely get the appeal, and wouldn’t mind him here in the PNW, but he’d be better as part of a RBBC.
Agreed, and I think Drake’s injury history is a red-flag. Just not sure he can hold up trying to run inside. His speed is dangerous, but his over-reliance on bouncing everything outside is a big limitation. And as you said, it was reported he was just lost and abysmal trying to pass block at the senior bowl. Definitely not something seattle would want for their 3rd-down back
Perkins is a 3 down back IMO and will likely be gone late 2nd early 3rd IMO. Like is game alot along with the kid from L-Tech.
He looks to small for the hawks personal and he’s easily brought down by ankle tackles. I don’t really see a fit
That’s a nice crop of possible Day 2 RBs. I agree Perkins will go first among this group, possibly too early for SEA. Howard is as physical as any RB in the draft. Prosise has the hands and speed to be a true check down threat. And Drake is the most raw, but probably with the highest upside.
Agreed day 2 has some great RB prospects. Have to add Booker to the list. After Elliot, Booker looks like the most well rounded and most ‘Seahawky’ RB out there. imo
He is well rounded, but is he better improvising? In a ZBS, where your reading and picking up on keys, might ot suit him. Combine that with his age and the fact he was run into the ground at Utah.
But, in a 3rd down back role, he does have some similarities to Matt Forte.
I
So, there is some story going around that Brandon Browner will be cut by the Saints. The kicker, would he come back to the Seahawks for a low money deal…. say 1M bucks. He would not cost comp picks, but knows the system. He is a magnet for penalties, but is very physical.
A part 2 to the story, there is a rumor Max Unger may be cut by the Saints and might be willing to come back to Seattle for a modest deal, let’s say ~3M for funs. Would Seattle pull the trigger and bring him back as well?
I feel like the ship sailed on both playing in Seattle, but then maybe they could put the band back together for a very modest price. What say you all ?
I’d be surprised if either returned. The old saying is your best ability is availability. Browner marked his card in Seattle with the suspensions. Unger’s injury history meant he was likely to be cut anyway a year ago.
I’m not convinced the Seahawks will go for re-treads here.
I’m not either, but it was something percolating on the local sportstalk stations KJR and KIRO/ESPN this fine Friday.
I agree, especially about BB. Perhaps the Saints simply didn’t know how to use him, but he really did look awful at times. And as much as Pete seems to be willing to take on players with troubled pasts, cases like Browner and Thurmond make me wonder if he draws the line at players who fail drug tests while on his team. I mean, it’s really easy to beat the NFL’s drug test for recreational substances. To fail it almost implies a serious addiction or bone headed stupidity.
If you can’t pass the NFL’s wink-wink nudge-nudge drug “test” you better have an overwhelming abundance of talent to be able to hang around.
Hasn’t Browner been clean and trouble-free since then? The issue with him is PIs, and the inherent gaps in his game. And, of course, age. If they were loaded with more quality depth in the secondary, Browner as a situational addition for cheap would be great. But they need consistent starters.
His issue for awhile has been that he’s not a good player anymore. He always had a very small margin for error and the increased emphasis on calling contact in coverage exacerbates the fact that he has lost a step. Knowing how easy it is for receivers to initiate contact and get the call only invites an insane number of targets and flags.
I agree with you and Steele about Browner. Even the first time Browner was with us, he still got a lot of PI and illegal contact calls. He’s older now and probably even slower and I just don’t see him as an improvement on the younger better CBs we have on our team.
1st Spence/Martin/Decker
2nd DE if OL in 1st, OL if DE in 1st
3rd Allen (C) Day (DT)
1st 4 picks would be great 2 DL and 2 OL
Just my own personal opinion — but I think you can wait at least another round to take Jack Allen. I’m not convinced the league sees him as someone who goes in that range. He was down the pecking order at the Senior Bowl for sure. I’m also thinking he might be a bit too squat for Seattle’s ideal (and I know Lewis is 6-1… but they were almost forced to start him in 2015 and didn’t go with him to begin with).
So if Martin goes in first, what 3rd or 4th Rd RT or LG do you see that would fit?
Left guard will be hard to find if we look at Seattle’s ideals (length, massive size). Converted tackles are what they’ve generally gone for there. Try and find a tackle with size and length that weighs 315-325lbs. At right tackle Fahn Cooper is a guy I like. I think one of these positions will be filled by a relatively cheap veteran.
I agree. Just doesn’t appear to be very many LGs that fit what Seattle has gone after, if we follow the model, like ya said.
Jack Allen has the wrestling background. For what its worth, something to consider.
I’m sure he’s herd that assessment of his stature many times. It just feeds his desire to prove those naysayers wrong. That chip continues to grow. By now, it’s the size of a Sequoia tree. All that has done is strengthen his resolve to become the best professional football player at his position in the NFL.
Doesn’t that sound familiar? There’s a QB under center right now that had to endure those same doubts, and now one of the top 5 premier QBs in the NFL. Sure, the talent was always there, but..There wasn’t that statuesque representation of a 6-4, 6-5 QB. He’s only 5-10 5/8! Some still can’t get it (you know who I’m talking about CBS Pris__).
That’s what drives some to be great. Wilson has that drive, Dougie B, Sherman, Lockett as well. Now you can add another to the cast of ‘Misfits’ with so much to prove. With that giant Sequoia tree on his shoulder, I think Allen fits right in this bunch of ‘Misfits’. They need a little more ornery players anyway.
Would not the Dallas Coaching staff determine the pecking order? No doubt that could effect the outcome. I thought Allen handled it well to acquiesce. I sensed that in his body language as they worked well together in drills. I wouldn’t put too much stock in that pecking order.
Sure, but Wilson was exceptional in every way… a #1 overall pick contender, but for height. Allen isn’t the perfect center aside from size.
Like Allen, I’ll just wait and see how his career unfolds and acquiesce.
I’ve seen some recent mocks that have Jaylon Smith dropping into the 20s and Rob Rang left him out of his first round all together in his last mock (Feb 2).
Do you think he might be there at 26 and provided the medical checks out, do you PC/JS would be interested?
I can’t help but think the 26th pick is OL unless something falls in our lap.
Considering Todd Gurley was the #10 pick last year, I’ll be shocked if a player as good as Jaylon Smith drops out of the first round. If he drops as far as #26 I’d also be asking, ‘why hasn’t anyone taken him?’ and that would probably put me off.
It’s tough to disagree with any of that, Rob.
Jaylons injury was more severe than Gurley and occurred 7 weeks later. I doubt he makes it back to play for the start of the season, just 9 months after an ACL. Those stories of him playing in week 1, seem like an agent driven story.
He’s often mocked to NYG at 10, but GM Reese is on the hot seat like many other GMs in the top 15ish. I don’t know if one of those GMs will stick his neck out for a likely PUP candidate. I live in Chicago now and John Fox and the GM got hammered over Kevin White in every presser. Doubt they want the sequel. I’ve read that IND at 18 might be his floor but they need to keep Luck healthy. Anyway, that will be interesting to watch.
What did you think of Jaylon preinjury?
I thought he was arguably the best player in the draft.
I think someone in the top-15 will have the courage of their convictions to take him. Maybe Miami.
I keep thinking he is a 49er waiting to happen. He was a top 5 guy prior to the injury.
Yeah was that 2013 SF took a couple early injury gambles on Latimore and Carradine? They probably started 1 game between them since. GM Baalke wont take that risk again with his job on the line. Not sure there’s a more hated man in the city.
Yep Baalke took Lattimore and Carradine in 2013. 2014-Thomas. 2015-Smelter. None have paid off at all, Smelter has a chance to change that though.
“Why hasn’t anyone taken him?” Typically the higher a team drafts, the more immediate the need for talent infusion and Day 1 production. Most teams simply don’t have the luxury (or might have more reluctance) to take on an injured player (albeit an uber-talented one). Gurley went early, but was such a position of need for StL, was maybe the best RB prospect in several years, and was much farther along in his recovery. Not arguing with you… no doubt Smith could (and probably will) go early, but if he does slide…it will be a team in Seattle’s range that has the stacked roster to tAke that chance
If he slides, I could easily see a team like the Steelers grabbing him. The hot rumor was the Bears for a week or so….. no way he makes it to 26.
Sure, but there are teams ahead of Seattle (eg Cincy) in the same position.
That’s why I said “teams in Seattles’s range” 🙂
Rob, this is another great summary. You are doing a great job sorting through a lot of information. (JSPC should pay attention.)
Seconded!
Field Gulls did a CAP breakdown….. not bad to read and brush up on prior to FA and Draft.
http://www.fieldgulls.com/2016/2/4/10919088/clarifying-the-seahawks-current-salary-cap-standing
I was watching the College skills competition on ESPN a few mintes ago and Clemson DE Shaq Lawson and ‘Bama’s DT A’Shawn Robinson stood out.
Yes, it’s meaningless and really doesn’t tell ya much, but man, these 2 guys are so quick and nimble on their feet, it was impressive to watch. It wouldn’t shock me if both of these guys killed the agility drills at the combine.
Robinson is just diferent looking. He’s 315 lbs and all muscle. He has that Kam Chancellor intimidation factor going for him when ya look at him.
I really like lawson and don’t know why people consistently leave hi. out of the first round.
When the draft shows up, he will go 1st round…… just have a feeling
I was able to catch Rob Rang on KJR 950 this after with Ian Furness. Interesting takeaways. They asked him about OL in the draft, and he felt pretty strongly that this is a good year for tackle, but isn’t offering much for the interior linemen who played interior line in college. He did say that he felt there are some really good players that played tackle last year that would transition well into good guards at the next level, and he used Conklin and Coleman as the prime examples. Seahawks have a strong track record of converting college tackles to guards.
Ian asked then asked him about DT, and his response was that he felt there very well could be a serious run of DTs in the 20s around the time Seattle picks, and wouldn’t be shocked at all if they take one. The two players he felt might really entice are Sheldon Rankins and Vernon Butler. He felt they could take one, and still be in position to land a decent OL prospect in rounds 2, and possibly double down in 3.
If we take his word as any loose form of gospel, I think it really could go down OL or DL at 26. If by some reason Conklin or Coleman are still on the board at 26, boom, there’s you LG. Personally, I think they probably will add at least one Vet OL, probably a RT, as that would provide most bang for the buck against the cap, maybe even a center. Coleman would be a MONSTER LG. Dahl could be drafted in later rounds to compete with Glow, or groom as a center. Britt becomes the swing tackle/guard. If they decide to jump into the late R1 DT derby, maybe Spriggs or Stanley (in a massive fall), or someone like Kyle Murphy in R2 is the target they have in mind.
I was curious about Coleman as LG if we resign Okung (which I hope happens). He could shift over when Okung misses his customary 2-3 games. I really like C Martin but Coleman seems like better value and SEA loves versatility especially on the OL. But I’m not smart enough to know if he’s a legit interior guy.
Fully agree with taking Coleman. It’s very rare a legit Tackle is available late in the first, whereas the best centers are usually available late-1 thru 3rd round every year… meaning if we don’t get our center of the future this year, we will likely have a chance at the top one or two centers next year. Coleman could play LG, fill in for Okung as you said, and potentially be the LT of the future (without having to use a top-10 pick to get one).
Ive been looking at some late round prospects. Anybody have thoughts?
Devontae Allen WR Marshall
Robert booker C Missouri St. (I like this guy-great center)
Aaron Epps OT Louisville. RT project. Two sports, athletic,
I forgot one.
Eric Rawls, Kentucky state. CB
My FA projection and Draft prediction for the first 4 rounds:
FA projection: Sweezy, Kearse, Rubin and Mebane return
1 Shon Coleman, OT, 6’6 312, Auburn
2 Chris Jones, DT, 6’5 308, Miss St
3 Sebastian Tretola, LG, 6’4 317, Arkansas
3 Eric Striker, OLB, 6’0 228, Oklahoma
4 Ronald Blair III, DE, 6’4 270, Appalachan St
OL: Coleman, Tretola, Lewis, Sweezy, Gilliam, Baily, Britt, Sokoli, Nowak
DL: Bennett, Mebane, Rubin, Avril, Marsh, Clark, Hill, Jones, Blair,
Thoughts?
Just feel Sweezy will be replaced by Glowinski. Don’t believe Kearse will be back either. Like the draft picks.
Just read Arthur Kennedy’s solid write up at Fieldgulls on 2016 Contract Decisions, and I agree with pretty much most of his thoughts, and his predications. It’s a good write up, if you haven’t checked it out, and I will let his piece some up the reasons.
http://www.fieldgulls.com/2016/2/5/10912216/seahawks-free-agents-2016-trades-holdouts-cap-casualties
Keep Okung, Lane, Lewis, C Mike, possibly Morgan, and Shead.
Good bye Sweezy, Irving (hurts), Kearse, Rubin, Mebane, and Jon Ryan.
Don’t cut Graham or depart with Kam. Extend Baldwin, and try to figure out something for Bennett.
After this Arthur Kennedy FA Scenario, I really like your mock. I love the idea of starting Coleman at LG next to Okung. Drafting and developing Jones to be the starting 3 tech next to maybe Ian Williams signed from the 49ers, Tretola to compete with Glow, Striker to develop as a starting OLB with pass rush, Blair as an inside rush specialist. Two picks for the OL, two for the DL, and a linebacker. Perfect.
Did you agree with it all?
It works when you decide that Lane will sign for 2M a year(pipe dream).
Without both Rubin and Mebane you’ll need extra $$$$ to stock your DT positions beyond the draft.
Without Kearse, you need to add a WR. It would be too risky to enter the season with Smith and Kasem as WR3, WR4. (just imagine a minor hamstring injury to Lockett/Baldwin…)
He predicts Okung at 10M a year….anybody here ready to endorse it?
and it’s Kenneth Arthur….
I respectfully didagree with Kenneth Arthur.
The $18 mil Seattle is projected to have, was factored in after putting away money for your rookie class, IR, and RFAs, lLosing both Mebane and Rubin would contraict everything this like Lewis, Shead, and C-mike.
You could keep 2-3 more guys for the price of Okung. $10 mil is way too much. Eats into over half their available cash.
Exactly.
I was really surprised by Kenneth’s post. Lots of stuff in there seemed to far off. He is usually well informed. (has a friend from the UK that could have helped him…)
Yeah, I can’t imagine letting both Rubin & Mebane go in FA. Why would the Hawks take a position of strength (not allowing 100 yds rushing a game) and make it a weakness?
Yeah, oops. Kenneth Arthur. Arthur Kennedy just seems to have a more natural flow as a first and last name. Two first names as a first and last naturally how me off.
I agree with a lot of where he is coming from. I’m sorry, I know many will disagree with me on this, and I respect their takes on Okung, see their points as well, often injured, not a top level LT, etc. I fully acknowledge they have much more faith in Gilliam at LT than I do, that I might be a huge worry wart, but I absolutely share the concerns Arthur was on the potential that Gilliam to LT could be a HUGE DISASTER, and if RW goes down with a major injury from a blindside hit, all fingers will point directly at the FO and their decision to go cheap at the position that protects the team’s most important investment. This is why I hope they can work a deal out, we shall see. $10 mill is a big chunk of the cap, but it’s the importance of the position the I genuinely wrestle with. My hope is that we can get him for under, and this is the section of his reasoning that I lean on:
“If Seattle convinced him to stay at that price they could actually lower his cap hit from last season ($7.2 million) and safely release him by 2018 (save half the cap hit) or 2019 (save 70%.) So what’s upsetting about that? Well, it’s not all that bad when you’re just talking about a reasonable contract for a left tackle, but this also means that in 2017, your third or fourth-highest paid player is a left tackle that has not once had a completely healthy season and who is wildly inconsistent not just year-to-year, but week-to-week.”
In terms of Mebane and Rubin, I can legitimately see them getting younger at DT through both FA and the Draft. Brian Nemhauser has brought this up as well. I can totally also see them keeping both on short term deals, and using the draft to grab someone who will eventually take one of their places. DT is a spot where I can see them go a lot of ways.
I can see them valuing Lane and keeping him for a season or two. Is he going to get big money in FA? Maybe. But he’s been injured often, hasn’t evolved into a regular full time starter yet. I think they might make a push to get something done before FA hits.
Emotionally, I would love Kearse and Irving back. I think he makes good points about Kearse. They have Paul Richardson, Kevin Smith and Kasem Williams. It will be interesting to see how they view Smith&Williams. My hunch is that they will draft a WR. Irving, I could make a strong case for bringing back, but I think the Vin Curry signing probably screwed up Seattle’s chances.
All and all, I thought it was a good take. With all the FA’s up right now, it’s going to make for great debate.
My FA projection is based on what I think will happen, not what I want to happen. I started with trying to project what the Seahawks would offer and what that player might have for a market. I think they will make an offer to Okung, but he will get a bigger offer elsewhere, and the same applies to Lane and Irvin. I think all 3 are gone. I hope Lane stays of those 3, but I don’t think he will.
I think we offer Sweezy and Kearse small ish contracts and I think they stay because their market will be limited elsewhere. Same for Mebane/Rubin. I think there is room for one more mid level contract in that scenario, but I think that would be a vet OL player to compete for LG or RT.
I do like where the trenches end up in my scenario. Lot’s of other possibilities, but I hope we can look at the trenches after FA and draft and say “Yes, this is what we need to compete”
I fully agree. I also think Okung, Irvine and Lane are gone and Rubin, Kearse ans Sweeazy stay. If Mebane will agree to a drop in pay, he stays too, if not – they know how to find run snuffers.
Once those are done we’ll know how those contracts are structured we’ll know what else we can afford.
Mebane – I’d be very very surprised if he doesn’t resign. He’s never played anywhere else, he’ll never have as much familiarity with another defensive scheme, he’s entering the twilight of his career, he has some injury concerns, and his team is in the midst of a championship window.
Eran, I agree. I think Sweezy, Kearse, Rubin all stay. And either ‘Bane or Lane if he doesn’t get an offer he can’t refuse.
I don’t agree with MOST of his reasoning. Kearse, Lane, Okung, and Seezy are I think the lowest priority re-signings. Rubin and Mebane are likely to be re-signed and the highest priority. Irvin is a maybe, but also unlikely. The front office quite pointedly allowed these free agents to reach free agency. Other than Rubin, whom they evaluated on a one year deal, they weren’t identified as must-sign core players.
Lane should be priority number 1 considering how terrible we were before he came back this year.. I guess he’s STILL underrated in Seattle….
Yes but so many young corners coming up and Shead coming back, who did well at corner. Whereas, we don’t have legitimate ‘next man up’ starter options at starting DT in particular. And we do have existing new starter options at RG and LT as well. Players who were pretty clearly drafted and developed to take those roles. We also have multiple receiver options to replace Kearse, with FIVE starter level pass catchers coming back (including Luke Willson and P Rich in this line of reasoning.
That leaves the two starting DT spots, starting SAM, RT, LG and C, third down RB and adding a pass rusher as the true priorities between free agency and the draft. And you can add extending Baldwin, restructuring Bennett, and doing what’s necessary to that list.
In free agency, I think the true priorities are (in rough order): Rubin, Bennett, Baldwin, Kam. That settles everything with the must have core players.
Then the RFA’s and ERFA’s.
Then Mebane or a FA replacement as our second starting DT.
Then at least one or two of RT, C or LG via mid level veteran free agent signings (Loadholt and Wisniewski would be my preferred scenario.
And THEN Irvin, Lane, Kearse, Sweezy and Okung if we can get them, which we won’t.
That frees up the draft to get bpa at pass rusher, any O Line position, and LB in our first four picks.
Like your idea of Loadholt and Wisniewski.
I totally agree that the next man up at DT is incredibly thin. If Hill could have shown at all he could stay healthy for a full season in the rotation, he might inherit the Mebane role, but he hasn’t.
Center, I think they could get by with Lewis again, if they had better guard play, but in all likelihood they want to upgrade.
IMO, we got next to nothing at LG right now. SAM future looks up in the air, but as long as Pete Carroll is coaching this team, they will always search out and add pass rush, not too worried about that.
My big question is; are we (they) really sure they have a starter option of LT in place? I know it’s strongly assumed by many that it is Gilliam. I am only comfortable enough to say, “maybe,” but that’s just me. Has anyone from the Seahawks organization ever said or implied strongly that Gilliam is or can be that guy? I know with them raving about his athleticism and Cable vocal about “only one guy in the NFL that can beat him with speed,” it makes some strong implications that they could see him as that next LT, but to me, that’s about all i’ve ever heard or read.
They also raved about Kelcie McCrary’s play at SS and the reasons why they traded a 5th for him. Do they really think he’s the next starting SS? I know some people have jumped on that bandwagon, too. I’m not totally ready for that, either.
Again, I just thought Kenneth Arthur brought up a really compelling point. I think this offseason could really hinge on whether or not it is worth resigning Russell Okung, and whether or not moving Gary Gilliam from RT to LT is worth the risk. It’s a very frustrating issue to address, I think because the weight of the position.
We scored 24 points on Carolina in a single half . . . with Alvin Bailey at Left Tackle. And we’ve won multiple games every season when Okung was out due to injury, including games when slow footed Paul McQuistan (remember him?) started in his place in 2013.
I think the ‘necessity’ Okung is very much a settled question. He can be replaced for far less, and we will still win and be more than productive. We lose and become most dysfunctional when we surrender pressure up the middle. So when prioritizing cap dollars, I think that decision has already been made. That roster spot has other options. And the cap money is going elsewhere.
Yeah, I can’t argue about pressure up the middle. LG must get fixed, adding center help would be lovely, as well. I go back and forth on Okung. Arthur’s take swung me back to signing him.
Agree with you 95%. Only difference is that I’d want Okung back on a cheap one-year prove it deal so he can hit the FA market w/o the injury taint he has now. Otherwise, bye.
I am shocked — shocked, I tell you! — every time I read about how people would find it so hard to let go of Bruce Irvin. Literally at no point this year did I watch a game and think, “Whew! Thank God we have Irvin!” Can kinda pass rush, a good SAM linebacker. If I had to bet my house on John and Pete correctly picking one position in the draft, it’d be linebacker. Some other sucker can give him upwards of $7MM a year.
Wouldn’t even bother offering Irvin or Kearse. Sweezy I’m okay with having back on the cheap only. Resign Rubin, Mebane and Lane, extend Bennett, grab an OL, DL and OLB in the first few rounds, done.
I would be happy with that draft. Tretola is not my favorite Guard for our system but I would be happy if we came away with this group of players.
KyleT, I like your draft board a lot. Both o-line and d-line strengthened, plus pass rush. The only thing missing is a center. Lewis/ Nowak isn’t great. In terms of FA, I don’t know if they will have the dollars to do both Rubin and Mebane, nor am I sure they need both back. Sweezy? Hm.
Two OT’s that haven’t been discussed much here by Rob or in the discussion boards are:
1)Gerald Hawkins-seems athletic and strong; clearly struggled against Alabama but their DL is probably better than 30 NFL teams’. His run blocking is quite impressive and his pass blocking is adequate. The Seahawks braintrust sure likes their big school OLinemen.
2) Tyler Johnston-his MSU tape looks weak, but his game against Washington was dominant. He looked like a different player. There have been a lot of disappointing Oregon OLinemen in the NFL but Johnstone looks different- much more athletic and aggressive. If his improvement over the course of the year was due to his injury fully healing, then he seems like an NFL starter to me.
Thoughts?
I like Johnstone. I actually think he might be more athletic than Jake Fisher. He definetly has the foot speed and length for an OT. The only concerns I have are his knee injuries, which could be a non-isue come combine medical evals.
Your right, he did get progress quite rapidly over the course of the year.
Hawkins I think made a big mistake in declaring. I am not a fan. He might be one of the most overrated prospects this year.
Hawkins looked like a late round or UDFA when I watched him. Very little to get excited about.
I like Johnston alot and think he could be a big riser after the combine. Could end up being a steal for someone.
Rob, the consensus of the national mocks thus far is that at least 3 of the following 5 OLs will be available to the Seahawks R1: Shon Coleman, Taylor Decker, Jack Conklin, Jason Spriggs and Nick Martin. We know your preference for Coleman, but if Shon was taken, yet the other four were still there for Seattle, which one would you select?
IMO Conklin is very sound, he just consistently does his job, he might not get a ton of push in the running game but his pass blocking is solid.I would snag him if Coleman was gone but Shon might be a better RT or left guard than Conklin is a LT
Decker.
Although he’s too good, too athletic, too big and too good (again) to last anywhere near to #26 IMO.
Round 1 (1) NICK MARTIN, C
Round 2 (1) MILES KILLEBREW, SS/OLB or YANNICK NGAKOUE, OLB
Round 3 (2) CHRISTIAN WESTERMAN LG/C / KENNETH DIXON, RB
Round 4 (1) LUTHER MADDY, DT
Round 5 (1) FAHN COOPER, OT or NICK VANNETT, TE
Round 6 (1) JAMES BRADBERRY, CB
Round 7 (2) D’HAQUILLE WILLIAMS, WR / JABARI HUNT-DAYS, ILB
How about Deion Jones round 2
Yannick for me.
I think Vannett might be a surprise pick for the Hawks if he lasts until the 3rd round.
I don’t see Deion’s skillset working at SAM for us, we would need to move KJ over to SAM, and why would we do that given he had a pro bowl type season at WILL?
I see round 2 as completely up in the air right now….. some guy as a DT/DE, OLB or LEO or some combo is what I think will happen. There are probably 20 names that have been bandied about on here.. and each would be a fine fit. What it comes down to is if Seattle goes OL in the first, then they will go DL/OLB in the second…. or if it is inverse, then same idea.
I’m simply wanting the best combo of players who can realistically be there at each pick. Trying to not reach too much or bet on a player falling into Seattle’s lap. A good example is Fackrell. I just do not see him making it to Seattle’s second round pick, if they love him, they may have to grab him in the first….
Anybody else think Vernon Butler should’ve been an OT? He’s at the low end of ideal height there, but the arm length makes that less of an issue. I just got the feel from watching the one tape that OT would’ve been more natural for him. I wasn’t very impressed with him as a DT; way too many plays without making an impact for the level of opponent (Ark St). IF he was less than healthy for that game, ignore everything I just said.
Billings I was also underwhelmed by, but saw much more of a chance to be an impact DT, especially considering his age. His struggles with awareness are concerning, though improving his mediocre technique should help some there. You’d definitely be sacrificing early impact versus a Nick Martin or some other options in the first.
I’ll also hedge my position on Butler with the thought that his mentality and attitude might just need the flip of a switch (like Taylor Mays between O’Dea and USC). The few times he really went for it showed the physical tools are there.
I don’t know, I see a guy who gets a lot of quick push for a big man, and some of the hits he puts on look soul crushing. He’s not quick twitch, but he is athletic enough to be disruptive in a brawler kind of way. The Hawks may want a more pure pass rusher like Rankins, but Butler is kind of my favorite right now. A lot of DT’s take a season or two. Cortez didn’t do much as a rookie, some even thought he was a bust. Short took a few seasons. IMO, Butler would likely be a quicker more athletic brawling version of Rubin, and the Wilkerson comparisons may not be too off base too off base. He is raw. Most of these guys are.
I’ve only seen the one tape, and I did see some plays that lead me to believe there is a lot more there. From just my first tape on each guy though, I like Javon Hargrave and Chris Jones quite a bit more.
And as I get into watching more guys, I like Rankins, but Chris Jones more, and Hargrave even more. Hargrave is like Mebane with more pass-rush ability; he uses his relative lack of height as an asset. Jones is a really good BIG athlete who could maybe even improve his agility and explosiveness with some more body-shaping.
I like Chris Jones, think he’ll test really well, but he’s a bit of a project. Seattle needs a DT that can slide right in and contribute a rotation and be a role player.
And the reason I think they pass on a guy like that, is because they need a pass rusher on the outside. It’s not a good class for Seahawky pass rushers this year, unless you take a project, which is the route I’m expecting them to take in regards to that role.
Kind of like Obum Gwachum last year, but farther along in his development than Obum.
Jones for sure has room to improve, but he didn’t seem all that raw to me, definitely not as far away as Billings. He should be a rotational contributor pretty quickly, and really help prevent QBs from being able to step up.
I see much more of a need to improve the interior rush when it’s not bring-Bennett-and Clark-inside situations. I’m concerned about either-or pass/run situations being an issue, as well as how much of a load and dependence there is on Michael Bennett.
Most rookies, as talented as they seem, do not make an immediate impact. It is a big adjustment to the speed and power of the league. We found one this year who was really ready, Lockett, but he had mentors who had played in the league and knew what what was needed. He came in ready to run routes, respond to defenses, and make himself available to a QB in trouble. Most rookies are not going to be ready to do that, whether playing WR, OL, RB, or DB. I do not like the idea of depending on improvement from rookies.
On the other hand, I can see an early round pick, who has been well coached being successful early in the right system. It happens every year. I am suggesting that we will likely see one, maybe two rookies who can be seen as early contributors. Personally I am hoping that they are offensive linemen, because that is where we most need them, but if there is another position player who shows big, can’t complain.
We have been successful, no doubt, with Russell Wilson, Lockett, probably Clark, and with several other early picks, but to hope that young players despite the hype are automatically going to help us is a pipe dream.
Give me one or two free agent vets, who just need the contact to a system that will use them well. Then draft away.
Bingo.
Expecting to find any more than 2 starters is a mistake. Getting a couple rookie starters, 2-3 rotational or role players, and 2-3 guys that are ‘waiting in the wings,’ red-shirted, or just stashed is a really good draft.
Exactly Vol. If you can do that every year you have a solid organization.
So, SC St. DT Javon Hargraves. Good looking player, went back and watched him, I like this kid. Explosive, one gaping DT, his lower half is built like Aaron Donald’s.
But, I can’t get over his length. Yes, it’s not set in stone, and Seattle will over look what a guy lacks if he makes up for it or compensates in other areas. I get that.
Looking at last year’s VMAC visitors, every DT had at least 32″ inch arms, and Aaron Donald’s were actually 32 5/8″.
He’d be a good fit in that tweener/under tackle role. IDK, maybe I’m puttying to much stock intothe lack of length thing.
I could see a team liking him in the same range as Ali Marpet, another ‘small-schooler,’ as last year.
Yeah, arm length could certainly make the jump in level of competition more of a concern.
BTW, there’s a late round DT to kerp an eye on. IMO this kid could end up in the 5th round. Very similar to Clint McDonald size wise, will ge a much better athlete IMO, and this guy’s character and personality ate up there with MosesBread’s.
Kentucky’s Cory ‘Poop’ Johnson. Tim Krumie, former NFL player, and DL coach of the West team at the Shrine Game said he was the most impressive player he coached this year.
Lance Zierlein described him in one word. ‘ACTIVE.’
He would be a nice 5th round pick to add to the DT rotation for sure.
So this issue is the length of his arms, wingspan or is it his overall height?
If he is disruptive and can give you some pass rush….. he will be on the radar for Seattle.
The issue for me is arm length whenit comrs to Hargrave.
Cory Johnson has over 32″ inch arms.
My Pre-Combine Top #5 Prospects for Hawks in Rd #1
#1 Noah Spence- Been beating the drum all year. He is simply a unique talent and the best pass rusher in this draft period. I don’t think there is any chance he makes it to #26 anymore but still my favourite prospect in this draft for the Hawks.
#2 Eli Apple – He is the prototype for what the Hawks look for in a CB. I know they don’t draft CB’s early but if he fell to 26 he could star opposite Sherm and the LOB would be back to being dominant.
#3 Shon Coleman- Ideal fit for the Hawks could anchor the OL at Rt with Gilliam at LT for the next 7-8 year. If the Hawks want to get tougher and nasty he will help for sure. Truly believe he could be the pick in Rd#1
#4 Sheldon Rankins – Elite Interior pass rushers are a rare breed in the NFL and game changers as we all know seeing Arron Donald twice a year. Another guy shooting up the board and will likely be gone but if not he would be an incredible addition to our DL and give us an elite 3 down 3 tech DT.
#5 Jaylon Smith – I thought he was the best prospect in the draft prior to injury. If he falls to #26 he is an elite enough talent that he would be worth the injury risk.
If any of these guys is the pick in Rd #1 it will be a steal at #26 and all would be Day #1 starters who could have an immediate impact. Of all of them I think realistically Coleman has the best chance of being there at #26.
Rob just curious what teams have a big need at Center who you think would be in the market for taking a Center early in the draft?
I thought maybe Cleveland if Mack opted out but they drafted Cam Erving last year who played C his senior year.
I guess I am just trying to figure out if martin would still be there when we pick in Rd #2.
Arizona, Washington.
If Washington has a need at Center then Mcloughin will not let him get past them in Rd #2 likely. definitely don’t want to see him in a Cardinals uni.
What about Tyler Boyd? Isn’t he a borderline 1st? His tape is excellent, excellent hands, very good at high pointing the ball and catching it in traffic, good YAC ability consistent producer under three different QBs who weren’t particularly shining, solid size, solid returner and capable of all those gimmicky bubble screens/wr rushing plays that the Seahawks like. He’s an outstanding fit for Seahawks and their needs.
Assuming that Kearse isn’t giving any kind of hometown discount (and potential departure) and, Jimmy Graham and Paul Richardson’s injury concerns, we are possibly going to 2016 with Kasen Williams and Kevin Smith as 3/4 receiving targets. This could be problematic if Richardson and Graham doesn’t recover quick enough.
Giving the very good fit, would he be a possible 1st/2nd round target for the Seahawks?
I agree with Trevor and like all those picks, however I think they will go Traeadwell or Thomas, not that i want them to. just got that gut feeling this is the year a big WR falls to them and they bite.
I just watched Josh Doctson’s game vs KSU. Dominant performance. High pointed the ball, physical at the reception point, consistent hands catcher. Hard working blocker with finish. Has a great burst, some top end speed and shifts gears well. Overall, he looks like the kind of receiver Seattle might want to add to the stable. Possession-like traits, yet with good speed and a tenaciousness.
Richardson is already recovered I believe.
Do any of the other teams picking after us in the first round have an interest in Nick Martin?
If this is unlikely, I would be a big advocate for trading down into the early second and picking up an extra early fourth round pick; one that could be used to target a back or guard. This could allow us to pick guard and defensive-tackle in round three and linebacker and center in round 2. My concern is that if we enter round five without a defensive tackle, that were essentially doomed to another year of zero pressure up the middle. But drafting a defensive tackle and a linebacker early would mean risking no issuing out on guard prospects and possibly a running back you really like.
2. Nick Martin – Center
2. Deion Jones – Linebacker
3. Sebastian Tretola – Guard
3c. Javon Hargrave – Defensive Tackle
4. Joe Dahl – Guard
4. Jordan Howard – Runningback
Unfortunately you can’t fill every hole in the draft. Ya gotta prioritize. You can find good, rotational DTs that push the pocket later in this draft too.
It’s why I’m conflicted about it.
It might take a little luck but I wouldn’t rule it out, after free agency we could have 2 or 3 of the holes filled then draft a few role/rotational players and safe early picks, in PCJS we trust.
Take Cory Johnson at 4 and u got your rotational DT, to many FA RB to find as a third down back. Look at the people the Pats keep on finding on the cheap.
They might not have enough money for a FA RB though.
Cory Johnson in round 4 would be a major reach.
And the NE RB’s. They don’t have specs like Seattle. 5’9-6’1, 212-225 lbs. That’s their wheelhouse.
It’s hard to predict what will happen. But, our weakest links continue to be OL and DL. They have enough skill players (Wilson/Graham/Rawls/Baldwin/Lockett) and we are set in the back 7 (Wright/Wagner/Thomas/Sherman/Chancellor), I really hope the first 4 picks are in the trenches.
OC/DT/DE/OG (no particular order)
Here is the problem though concerning the skill players (offensive play-makers)…
RB – M LYNCH – Probably gone
RB – T RAWLS – Injured. How and when will he recover? Is he able to be a feature back?
WR – J KEARSE – Free agent, “security blanket”, possibly gone
WR – P RICHARDSON – Injured
TE – J GRAHAM – Serious injury
If worse case scenario occurs, that’s a lot of firepower that needs to be replaced.
Why can’t Rawls be a feature back? He’s already out of the boot, it was a clean break. No screws, ligament/nerve damage, and it wasn’t a sprain.
Gurley, Peterson, Murray, Charles, Martin have all proved that lower body injuries aren’t a death sentence for a RB anymore.
Either add a back this year, or next year when 3-4 RBs will go in the 1st. Not mention the all the others.
Concerning Rawls; there’s never any guarantees w/ injuries in the NFL
Graham has got the biggest comeback, but Russ looked good without Graham/Lynch/Richardson and Kearse can make some plays, but when Russ was hot, it was all Baldwin and Lockett.
Make the OL and DL better and the Hawks won’t get manhandled by the Rams and Panthers.
As do i Ed, I guess that’s why my gut tells me a big WR
I really hope not, unless they plan on letting Graham go and using the money on a big FA.
Maliek Collins – Nebraska
Anthony Zettel – Penn State
Vincent Valentine – Nebraska
Hassan Ridgeway – Texas
Luther Maddy – Virginia Tech
Antwuan Woods – USC
Justin Zimmer – Ferris State
Javon Hargrave – South Carolina State
Corey Johnson – Kentucky
Melvin Lewis – Kentucky
DJ Reader – Clemson
Darius Latham – Indiana
Matt Ionnidus – Temple
Quinton Jefferson – Maryland
Darren Lake – Alabama
Ronald Blair – Appalacian State
Here are your day three defensive tackle prospects. Which ones could help us in a rotational role with pass rushing upside?
Michigan’s Willie Henry (close friend of Frank Clark) might last until day three.
Willie Henry. I was wondeing when we were gonna see his name brought up.
10 TFL and 6 QB sacks, plus good size.
Speaking of Michigan, what about DE Chris Wormley? 6.5 sacks and a pass deflection on the season.
Big fan of Wormley. He came back for his senior year.
…and Chase Farris – Ohio State. 🙂
Woops, DT’s, not OT’s. My bad.
Lake, Lewis, Reader, Valentine, and Woods aren’t pass rushers.
Late round run stuffers? I like Florida St’s Nile Lawrence-Stample.
I don’t think Zettel plays inside at all in the NFL. Collins is kind of ‘meh.’
Rotational pass rushers from the interior? Hargrave, Johnson, Maddy, Ridgeway, Henry.
Darius Latham is more of a Tony McDaniel type.
Blair, Zimmer, and Jeffersoh fall into the Jihad Ward role for me. Guys that can play inside and out.
Also, Lawrence Thomas and Joel Heath from Michigan State are both viable later round options at defensive tackle.
And a name we discussed earlier: Adam Gostis; Georgia Tech.
Rob, what do you think about Cal’s Stephen Anderson as a hybrid WR/TE?
Miami’s WR Rashawn Scott. You watched him at all?