Time for the QB notes from week five.
Before we get started though, I wanted to briefly return to a topic I discussed last week about the broader 2023 draft class.
Every week I keep adding names of players to my watch-list. Players who stand out and warrant another look down the line. What I’m struggling to find, however, are players who deserve to be considered early first round prospects.
I do think this needs to be highlighted. I appreciate that currently Seattle’s defense is an abomination and Geno Smith is playing well. However, finding blue-chip defenders as an alternative to drafting a quarterback in 2023 is going to be incredibly difficult. Aside from Alabama’s Will Anderson, I just don’t think they’re there.
On the other hand, there are quarterbacks that warrant consideration early in round one. With two first rounders and two second rounders in 2023 — the Seahawks have the potential to be aggressive if they want to be.
Some of the defensive players being touted as top-10 picks, I just can’t see it. Take Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter. He’s a good player. He isn’t a game-wrecker though.
So far, in Georgia’s five games, he has:
0 sacks
0 TFL’s
4 tackles
1 Pass break-up
I think he’s a very capable interior presence you should consider in the second half of round one as a steady, controlling lineman. But he isn’t Gerald McCoy, Ndamukong Suh or even Quinnen Williams.
Increasingly as this college season develops I’m starting to think the 2023 draft will be similar to 2022. There will be a dearth of legit top-10 players but a reasonable amount of depth overall as you go into days 2-3.
What you do have, that we didn’t see this year, are a handful of quarterback prospects you can invest in and have faith in to be an answer. Plus Will Anderson as a blue-chip pass rusher.
Geno Smith turns 32 in seven days and while he admittedly is the man for the present, I don’t think many people see him as the man for the long-term future. Drafting a quarterback has to remain Seattle’s priority.
I’ll have an article on Seattle’s defensive struggles — and how they might be able to fix them — later this week.
DTR proves he’s underrated, reality bites for Penix Jr
Friday’s game between Washington and UCLA validated something that we’ve been pretty consistent with on SDB. The hype surrounding Michael Penix Jr went too far and Dorian Thompson-Robinson remains underrated.
Firstly, Penix Jr.
There’s no doubt that he’s been a fun player to watch so far. I’ve now watched Washington twice and it’s clear they made a good decision in appointing Kalen DeBoer. That said, we also have to embrace what DeBoer brings to UW.
His system is going to produce. It’s wide open, well crafted, multi-faceted and does a lot of the heavy lifting for quarterbacks. It’s why Jake Haener was able to throw for +4000 yards last year at Fresno State.
I would imagine that for as long as DeBoer is with the Huskies, they’ll have a productive quarterback. Offensive production will never be a problem. The key to them having eventual success will be putting a complementary defense on the field that is good enough to really challenge.
Penix Jr picked UW because he worked with DeBoer at Indiana. He knew the scheme and therefore, it’s no big surprise he started the season well against some bad opponents (including Michigan State’s ridiculously awful pass defense which remains among the worst in all of college football).
Yet every week I was getting more and more messages about Penix Jr, with people increasingly touting him as a legit NFL prospect. I hope this UCLA game will add a bit of perspective to the discussion moving forward.
For starters — I wasn’t aware that when Penix Jr was sacked in the second quarter of this game, it was the first sack he’d suffered all season. That’s remarkable, when you consider Will Levis has been sacked 18 times in five games. It took until mid-way through Penix Jr’s fifth game to receive any serious pressure.
It speaks to the environment he’s come into.
The scheme requires very little from its quarterback other than to execute. Everything is set up for him, he receives his instructions from the sideline and very rarely does he ever progress to a second read. He does do it — and did it for a touchdown in this game, coming off his intended target and throwing to a wide open receiver in the end zone. Yet more often than not it’s a case of snap, do what you’re told to do and the well-crafted offense will sort things out for you.
As a consequence, when things go wrong, you have to be able to adjust and improvise. In this game, Penix Jr could not. He threw two horrible interceptions as a consequence.
The first came with 8:08 left in the second quarter. He stares down his intended target, telegraphing the play. The little bit of pressure means he can’t step into his throw so he’s flat-footed on release. The pass has no mustard on it and was an easy takeaway.
On the very next play, DTR throws a touchdown for UCLA — rubbing salt into the wound.
His second interception again happened when Penix Jr stared down his intended target. The defender is watching him all the way. It’s a slightly later throw and completely telegraphed. Easy pickings.
At one point Andre Ware, who was commentating, congratulated Penix Jr for throwing accurately into triple coverage. For me it just highlighted the problem. If the scheme tells Penix Jr to go to this receiver, he will do. Regardless if it’s triple coverage. And sure — it looks nice when it comes off. Try doing that in the NFL though.
Even at the college level, you need to be able to come off that look and make progressions to find the better option. In the NFL you don’t get to look at three arts-and-crafts boards being held up on the sideline giving you instructions on everything to do.
Aside from all of this, I thought Penix Jr just looked mostly unspectacular. When the easy, well-designed plays weren’t there — there were inaccurate passes to go with the nicely thrown balls. His throwing motion is elongated and problematic. He’s not particularly elusive or dynamic as a runner.
And that’s before we go into his injury history which is extensive.
I don’t want to piss on anyone’s bonfire here. Washington are much more fun to watch than they’ve been in years. Kalen DeBoer gives the team hope for the future. But Penix Jr should generally be an afterthought for the draft. And that’ll largely be the case throughout this year, even as he continues to put up big numbers in this uber-friendly quarterback system.
Thompson-Robinson also receives a lot of the same benefits. His scheme doesn’t demand too much from him. He doesn’t need to progress through numerous reads. In this game, he also benefitted from the brilliance of Zach Charbonnet and Jake Bobo’s knack of getting open.
That said, he just executed better. When key conversions were needed, he delivered. He was accurate and decisive. He didn’t give Washington a sniff of a turnover. He also provided much more of a threat as a runner — including one electrifying hurdle over a defender.
I’ve liked DTR for a long time. I appreciate he doesn’t have the traits of the bigger name QB’s eligible for 2023 and as a consequence, his stock will be somewhat limited. By all accounts he’s probably looking at round four as a ceiling. I still think he has a playmaking quality that many other players — who get a lot more publicity — simply don’t possess. If you need more convincing, check out his 68-yard touchdown scramble against Bowling Green.
He deserves more attention than he gets.
Same old story for Kentucky’s O-line
In many ways, Will Levis should probably be grateful. His offensive line is giving NFL scouts a good look at how he battles adversity week-to-week.
C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young can only dream of such an environment.
I’m only half-joking. Part of the problem with analysing quarterbacks at Ohio State and Alabama is the sheer mismatch in talent they benefit from, playing for the teams they play for. Then you throw in how much the Ohio State system holds Stroud’s hand and it creates an extra layer of suspicion.
Then you watch Levis. He takes snaps under center. He reads the defense without needing to look at cards on the sideline or hand signals. He’s playing in a pro-style offense.
And he’s getting hammered every week.
It’s like he’s already in the league.
Levis was sacked three more times against Ole Miss in a game Kentucky should’ve won. One of those sacks was a safety that led to his finger being broken or dislocated on his non-throwing hand. The third sack led to a fumble that ended the game.
He’s now been sacked 18 times in five games.
The Wildcats also surrendered nine TFL’s in this game alone.
Yet, as mentioned, they still should’ve won.
The kicker missed a field goal and an extra point in a three-point loss. They were all set to score on a brilliant kick-return, until the runner was tripped up by a team mate.
Levis had another fumble in the game on a QB-keeper where a defender lowered his head and levelled him at the crown of his helmet. They didn’t even review whether it was targeting.
The quarterback himself wasn’t blameless. The sequence at the end was a bit of a mess. A potential game-winning touchdown was taken off the board because Levis rushed the play in the red zone with less than a minute to go. He spotted a 1v1 matchup he wanted, rushed to get the snap off and a different receiver wasn’t lined up properly. False start (called an illegal shift). It was a shame — his fade pass was caught well and he ID’d the right situation, he just needed to let everyone get set.
Overall though, I saw enough in this game to feel comfortable with my projection as Levis as a high pick, perhaps even the highest in 2023.
He moved the ball well at the end with some top-level pro-throws and processing. When he had time in the pocket, he was surgical. Indeed the way he commands this pro-style offense, makes reads and goes through progressions is a world apart from any other draft-eligible quarterback.
Increasingly I think Levis is going to be the guy teams want. I think there’s going to be a real clamour for him at the top of round one, with teams believing he is best equipped to start early. He is the best combination of pro-style experience, extreme athletic and physical traits, character and performance.
The fact he’s doing what he’s doing with a non-ideal supporting cast too — which is likely what he’ll get early in his NFL career if he’s a high pick — is another feather in his cap.
Bryce Young injures his shoulder
It was a really strange sequence that led to the injury. Young was on the field, seemingly OK, threw a standard pass and immediately his arm went limp. He left the field, threw his helmet to the ground in frustration and entered the medical tent.
Young’s reaction was alarming — it was as if he knew something serious had happened.
Yet later in the game he was back on the sideline, all smiles, cheering his team mates on. He was only considered ‘questionable’ to return — suggesting it wasn’t a serious problem. And yet how many non-serious injuries leave your arm limp?
TV footage also showed an earlier play where he was tackled, and briefly clutched at his shoulder.
Gary Danielson, commentating for CBS, said the following:
“I tore my rotator cuff on a play exactly like that. You don’t know it’s hurt until your next throw.”
Details on Young’s injury are limited at the moment. It does speak, however, to some of the concerns relating to his NFL future.
Despite being listed at 6-0 and 194lbs by Alabama, it’s well established by now that this isn’t accurate. As Todd McShay noted last week, he’s been measured by NFL people at a shade above 5-10 and around the 185lbs mark.
At Alabama, Young faces very little adversity. He plays behind a bunch of all-star offensive linemen who typically overmatch opponents and he’s supported by 5-star talent at the skill positions. Unlike Will Levis — he rarely faces a battering in the pocket. He doesn’t take a lot of damage.
At the next level, he won’t have that luxury. He’s going to get hit. He’s going to be moving around a lot more. Can a player who is this small last the distance? Because there simply isn’t anyone his size doing it in the league.
Young is a good player but there’s no getting away from the fact this is a question NFL teams will have to ask ahead of the 2023 draft.
In terms of what he showed against Arkansas, his first drive ended with an interception. The receiver was hit in his route and it prevented him from being in the right place at the right time. The ball hit his fingertips and deflected straight to a defender.
Alabama were messy to start. One of the receivers had a horrendous drop to start the second series. Then Young fumbled a snap, nearly leading to a turnover. He then threw wild and high on a pass into the flat. But, with this being Alabama, he then hit a slot receiver down the middle who simply out-ran everyone for an easy touchdown.
His next touchdown was a similar cakewalk. A receiver released downfield and was so wide open, it’s as if he was fielding a punt. Young executed the pass to set up a walk-in touchdown on the next play for the quarterback.
On the play where he scrambled to initially possibly injure his shoulder — he had no reason to bail on the pocket. He scrambled his way into bother by running towards the sideline, just because Arkansas blitzed. The protection was fine and yet he bailed on the pocket. He has a tendency to do this — probably because of his height. One of his egregious interceptions earlier this season came on an unnecessary scramble, followed by an ugly heave downfield.
The talent is there. It’s a quandary projecting a 5-10 (ish), 185lbs quarterback to the next level though. That’s just the reality.
As for his opposite number in this game — K.J. Jefferson — I’ve never felt particularly excited about his pro-potential and nothing about this game changed that. I just think he’s limited in terms of mobility and processing. He has the arm to make some pretty throws at times but I’ve never once watched him and felt like I was watching an eventual NFL starter.
C.J. Stroud has another one of ‘those’ games
I want to love Stroud but I simply can’t go there. He has too many games like this where he’s just off.
Stroud is capable of throwing the most impressive passes I’ve seen at the college level, since I started this blog in 2008. I keep saying this.
Yet too often this is offset by the basics just not being good enough. Intermediate accuracy, timing, making the right reads.
And then there are plays like this:
Avery Young picks off CJ Stroud 👀
CFB Live Blog: https://t.co/LXPH5piOFM
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 1, 2022
What on earth is that?
What is he seeing?
He has one receiver, blanketed by four defenders. He stares down his intended target, telegraphing the pass. He should never, ever attempt that throw. He tries to fit it in there anyway and quite deservedly, is picked off.
That is just rubbish, I’m afraid. It speaks to a player who has his reads made for him at the LOS, perhaps trusts his arm too much and doesn’t have the ability to sense the obvious danger there, come away from his target and do something else.
He finished 13/22 for 154 yards, two touchdowns and the pick.
His first score was an easy seam throw thanks to the massive separation from the receiver. His second was a simple red zone slant.
Ohio State leaned on their running game in this one and dominated, so Stroud’s iffy game didn’t matter. Yet all a performance like this does is validate some of the concerns I’ve voiced in the past. Not just about Stroud — but about quarterbacks from Ohio State in general.
You can have all the talent in the world. If your college experience is to play with 5-star players on your O-line and skill positions, have your reads made for you to the point you’re told what to do — and all you have to do is execute — how is this preparation for the next level?
A consistent run of Ohio State QB’s — some very high picks with a lot of physical talent — have come into the league and they just haven’t been able to adjust to life outside of the comfortable college bubble they play within.
Stroud is more talented than Justin Fields, Dwayne Haskins, Cardale Jones and others. But it’s impossible not to have some concern about his ability to fair any better at the next level. I think he’s going to need time — possibly even a redshirt year — to really get to grips with the challenge he’s going to face. The extreme arm talent could get him through some growing pains — but we’ve also seen that sometimes, it isn’t enough.
I’m not sure what to make of Max Duggan
What is he? He’s playing very well. But he also lost his job at TCU and is only starting now because the other QB injured his knee in the opening game.
His first touchdown for TCU against Oklahoma was a complete duck — thrown too high, with a wobbly spiral that hung in the air for an age. The receiver did a good job tracking it to complete the catch. At the next level, it would’ve been batted down at best — picked off at worst.
For Duggan’s second score, it’s a complete busted coverage and the receiver is stood downfield completely on his own.
Admittedly his third touchdown — a 67-yard run — was impressive. And he can run — no doubt about it. He gets the legs pumping and he can move. He’s a strong straight-line runner rather than an exciting, elusive pressure avoider.
He had another strong run later in the game and threw some nice passes over the middle with ample velocity. Duggan had another long coverage-bust touchdown before running in a final TD.
I can’t get a feel for his upside and some of these scores were classic Big-12 (bad defense). I’ll continue to monitor him.
Yep, I still can’t quit Anthony Richardson
The physical upside is completely off the charts and he continues to show enough technical quality to want to believe in him — warts and all. It might take two years of pain in the NFL but the end-game could be an elite quarterback.
I appreciate he was only facing Eastern Washington on Sunday but here’s how his day started.
On Florida’s first offensive snap, Richardson throws it from his own 18-yard line with minimal effort, reaching a receiver at Eastern Washington’s 25-yard line. It was freakishly easy for him to lob the ball that far. Big touchdown.
Then on their second offensive snap, he dodges and weaves through defenders on a 45-yard scramble.
Later, Richardson threw an incredible pass to the right sideline with a defender clinging onto his ankles. Somehow he stayed on his feet and armed it out to the sideline with velocity and accuracy.
His second touchdown was a beautiful loft following play-action. Lovely touch on the pass to drop it in over the defender.
I appreciate there are also problems to acknowledge. He had an interception that was a lazy lob downfield, underthrown into good coverage. It’s a big mistake and he should never have thrown that pass. I think he got too comfortable with the score being 35-3 and thought he’d throw it anyway.
And that’s part of the issue. He has a lack of playing time and he’s going to have to work through some issues.
But again — so did Josh Allen. So did Patrick Mahomes. So did Lamar Jackson.
I would put him in the Allen-level range as a physical freak of nature who needs to work on the technical side of the game, cut out mistakes and then the world’s his oyster.
Richardson’s physical talent is that good. It doesn’t mean he’ll deliver on his potential because the game requires more than just physical traits. Yet he has so much to offer — I can’t help but secretly hope the Seahawks will draft and develop him because he definitely could be a star in the making.
If they win too many games to be in the hunt for Levis, Stroud and maybe even Young — it wouldn’t be the worst situation to select Richardson with the objective of developing him, creating the chance to use your other high picks to address other areas of the team.
That plan would only be feasible, however, if Richardson turns pro. That’s unclear given his inconsistent start to the season.
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😂🤣
https://twitter.com/n_bolles/status/1576689805747838976
Another big draft hit for Rob from this year 💯
https://twitter.com/JimNagy_SB/status/1576904346742112257
Rob had an A+ draft season last year. Nailed a bunch of the top rookies.
lol
I don’t post much, but had a couple things.
1) Any thoughts on the kid from NC St (Devin Leary)? Is he mid round talent or just another decent college QB?
2) Thanks for all you do for this community. You don’t hear this enough, but your words and articles are going to help the lot of us deal with a tough year of Hawk football. Appreciate you man.
I am not a big fan of Leary. Limited traits, not particularly impressive. Just a reasonable college QB for me.
Thanks for the kind words
I really hope there is no Seahawks’ interest in Bryce Young. I don’t trust him at the next level at all. Levis seems like the clear cut QB to draft, but seems very possible that Seattle won’t have a shot at him.
Thanks for this.
Really looking forward to the future where there is more info on other players at other positions to ponder.
A few things feel true to me at this point in the year. Seattle will most likely be out of the Levis sweepstakes. Regardless of where Denvers pick is it won’t be able to be packaged to get ahead of a team that actually needs a qb, jets anyone.
Scheme, coaching, whatever. This defense is fireable levels of bad. But the problem is the two guys who made it are in charge. I think it’s possible that the first four picks go to the defense next draft. Still hopeful for mafe. Hopeful Bryant doesn’t get washed out by bad coaching decisions. There is currently ONE player you can build with. In Woolen. The next best player might be a 35 year old dlinemen.
I’m personally out on Young. Too small. Of he was a mid late rounder sure. But he won’t be probably. I’m out on Stroud. That stare down pick is not cutting it in the nfl.
It’s not possible for the first four picks to go on defense because one of those picks, at least, has to be used to get a QB.
Just trying to work out who they could select in that range.
Short of Richardson and coaching him up and that’s an “if,” that he declares.
Hall I suppose but if he sits he’ll be a 27 year old starter.
TVD one of my favorites seems destined to transfer. I like a lot of DTR’s game but you think the fourth round.
Stroud I can kind of see but there’s always a gm who gets in love with the stats and I personally wouldn’t spend a top ten pick in him. Again maybe he can sit a year. Maybe he falls to the mid teens.
The class right now just feels very thin compared to the first week of college.
Just a strange year to probably have so many likely high picks and an unclear picture of who warrants those picks.
Well they’re four games in and could still pick very early
Plus they have the stock to trade up
Definitely not opposed to trading up.
This idea is freaking me out. Geno gets to start a new season and we use the first four picks on D. Fine with using one of them for a top edge if available or for a top DT, but remember these are the guys who got LJ Collier, Blair, Brooks and Taylor with high picks. Geno is not a solution on the long run, he’s gonna prove it against the first solid opponent. We might need a receiver if Lockett loses speed, we need a IOL if not two. The right way to fix the D is to organize the players you have, build around their skills, not try to throw them in a scheme where they don’t fit, and get some sort of solid replacements for the obvious fails – Barton, Josh Jones. Get a safety in the 4th round and a linebacker in the third or by trading a 7th round pick for a vet and coach them into a system.
Chicken/egg though?
The right way would be to scheme them. What if the talent just isn’t there?
I’ve labored on about the bad drafts. I don’t think any pick is a bad spot. Earl Thomas. Bobby Wagner. A free safety in the teens and a middle linebacker in the second. It’s the bad picks.
Totally agree they need interior oline. Probably need not just a third reciever but both a second and third sort of soon-ish.
Four picks on defense is most likely a bad idea. And it’s a weird place to be where your defensive head coach and staff are actually so-so at picking offensive players and thus far have a defense completely lacking in scheme and possibly talent.
I think worrying about Seattle’s draft position and ability to move up is a little premature.
The Rams moved up from #15 to #1 to select Goff in 2016 and only had that one first rounder to work with.
Philly also moved up from #8 to #2 to select Wentz. They creatively staggered the future picks to get him, a 2017 first and a 2018 second.
They have 2 firsts, 2 seconds, 2 fifths next year and can trade picks from the 2024 and 2025 drafts as needed to move up. They have the ammo to do it.
It’s not the ammo. It’s as Rob us writing these great pieces each week it feels like there’s less talent to move up for and the same amount of teams that will need that talent.
Fields, Zach wilson, Carolina are legitimately in terrible places with their qbs. The colts are plodding. Who knows what ATL does.
Not sure why you’re hating on Zach Wilson today of all days. He’s played 18 games, and led a game winning drive on the road against a good defense, going 5/5 on the drive. It’s way to early to put the kibosh on him so far. He’s just getting started, and it was obvious last year he wasn’t at NFL speed yet. Yesterday was encouraging, let the kid play.
I’m with you on it being unlikely we snag Levis, he’s my bet to be #1 overall given how quickly he’ll be ready to play. I do disagree with you on ruling out Young and Stroud so far. They’re very flawed players, but I wouldn’t dismiss them or their potential. I’ve learned not to do that after being wrong on the following for very similar reasons: Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and to some extent Lamar Jackson (I didn’t think he would grow as much as he has as a passer). All of these guys were players I didn’t think would be the ultimate answer, and I look pretty wrong on all of them.
Without meeting, interviewing, and coaching these guys hands on, I think its pretty difficult to know who will develop or not. Looking for improvement in tape is an easy way to spot it, but that isn’t always there. Seeing how they respond to adversity matters. It’s why I don’t write off Young. he may be at Alabama, but the few big games I’ve watched him play have not always been easy. He was under siege at Texas. Against Georgia he had to fight a top class D without any viable receiving threats and an OL that had finally met its match. He’s responded, in my eyes at least, well in those situations. Because of that, I think he stands a chance in the League.
I can understand the concern with the Stroud throw, and how Stroud seems to have games that he is off, but to be out on him is a little over the top. Levis equally has those type stare down throws, and concerns.
I was anti-Stroud to start, I didnt think he was going to elevate this year. But I will admit i have been surprised by the whole body of work he has shown. It is with the caveat he has a super star team to play with and lacks showing how he can RUN a pro style offense and face adversity. But he is clear #2 behind Levis.
I would be happy with either Levis or Stroud, but I am afraid we will not have a chance at either. Even if we have the ammo to be aggressive, if we play ourselves out of the top 10, are we really willing to give up 3 firsts+ to jump to#2 (9ers traded 3 firsts to get from 12 to 3)?
It may seem over the top. But you mention it in your comment. Rob has written about it extensively. There’s a world of difference what levis is doing in kentucky than Stroud is doing at Ohio.
It’s not the one pick per se. It’s not that ohio is stacked and they face a pretty weak schedule. It’s not even that they make the calls for him. It’s all of it in totality.
Like I mentioned, in the teens? Sure. Sit him unless he blows the doors off. If Seattle gets five wins and they are picking sixth I’m not sure I still wouldn’t try to package picks for levis if there was a seller. Just not sure there will be one. Carolina and the jets have worse qbs at the moment don’t think either team can punt on a good qb for extra picks.
To be fair, you didnt mention Stroud in the teens. You said you were “out” on him completely based on the one throw. Which is what i would call an “over the top” “Hot take.” I can understand being out on Young from the first round based on measurables. But, barring an injury to either, they will be going high, with Levis probably taking number 1 after he performs at the combine as a freak athlete. So like you said, even to trade from 6 to 1 or 2 is going to take more than 2 firsts. There isnt going to be a Non-qb needy team in the top 1-2 this year.
No worries. It was further in the thread. I begrudgingly could see him in the teens. I wouldn’t spend picks to move up to get him.
I’m still out generally. It’s not any kind of take. Ohio qbs often play awesome and are fun to watch on a Saturday and haven’t done much on Sundays.
Of course nothing is set in stone like that. I just don’t see a guy being challenged so it’s hard for me to not see what a lot of their qbs have done over his time their.
Team PFF
https://i.redd.it/edf8ky9bflr91.png
Offense PFF
https://imgur.com/I2yKinL
Defense PFF
https://imgur.com/fNdwcj2
The Oliners looked better to me than their grades.
Thank you for posting these every week cha
I am starting to get the feeling that Seattle is going to win just enough games to lose out on Levis. I do like the idea of taking Richardson (I am assuming he will probably be top 10 if he comes out) and not starting him immediately though. Let him sit, watch, learn and practice for a bit. Does that mean that Geno starts for another year? Maybe. I think he could be serviceable for another year if the line continues to improve, but like Rob said, he is not a long term option. Then use the other higher picks on defense, because it is looking like that side of the ball needs a LOT of help.
If richardson declares and we are put of the levis stakes I would like him and continue to play Geno for as long as both parts of that equation were necessary.
I agree. Levis would be my first choice, but I am starting to see Seattle as a 5-6 win team, which probably won’t get him unless they package picks (and I don’t want to see them give away a ton of firsts like SF did for Lance). I am not a fan of Stroud or Young for the reasons that Rob has stated repeatedly and now that Van Dyke is being ruined by Cristobal I am not even sure he will come out this year. If Richardson can be coached up and come even close to Allen, then it’s worth the risk. That’s a big if, but every QB that’s drafted is.
Obviously it’s only 4 games in, but is there any concern that Pete pulls a Pete and commits to Geno beyond this year and foregoes an early QB?
Sorry, BA, didn’t see your post and almost replicated it below…great minds yada yada…
With Pete seemingly bulletproof in Seattle into 2024+, what are the odds that he just likes Geno and signs him for something like 3/75 and continues drafting safeties and linebackers with his high picks until he’s out of the building…let the next guy worry with a new QB? That seems unlikely, but how Pete would it be of Pete to do just that?
Also, my updated odds to be the next head coach of your Seattle Seahawks:
5. Sean Payton. 1000/1
4. Ken Norton Jr. 900/1
3. Lane Kiffin. 12-1
2. Nathan Carroll 9/5
1. Brennan Carroll. 7/5
2. Nathan Carroll 9/5
1. Brennan Carroll. 7/5
I know you’re doing humor Gross, but you just gave me shudders.
How are we feeling about Will Dissly’s contract today?
This is how ESPN has him projected for the season, assuming he stays healthy:
51receptions, 493 yards, 9.7 average, 13 touchdowns.
He is also a perfect 12 receptions on 12 targets.
The real test is coming when they face good defensive teams. If Waldron continues to deploy his TE’s effectively and Pete doesn’t revert to conservative ball, I’m hoping Dissly stays healthy and both he and Parkinson have career years.
Nothing opens up the modern offensive scheme like a room full of productive TE’s.
Good point. Dissly is a fine player, and I’m happier with the contract. He’s no Kelce but he’s good … obviously he’s not paid like a Kelce.
I like Uncle Will, he’s a Husky after all. My question is this: could you get that same production, mixed with 2 other pretty decent TEs on the team for less? if the answer is yes, it’s still a poor allocation of resources. My opinion is that you could.
I like Will, but could Seattle get the same production with Fant, Parkinson and a 3rd stringer? If so, then they overspent to keep him. If not, then it’s not a bad contract.
Rob,
As a thought experiment, how does Richardson compare to Drew Lock?
I’m not arguing for or against either. I’m just curious.
Completely different in terms of playing style, college production and potential
What are your thoughts on Cameron Ward? I watched his highlights this week then went back and found a cut up of his Oregon game, lots to like in terms of improvisational skill and physical ability but another very wild player.
Really fun college qb but lacks the accuracy and consistency to be a pro.
Pete Carroll Show
[q] Congrats on the win? “Come out flying, pleased, but we got more coming up. Started fast on offense, executing well. A couple misfortunes, turned FB over, got a fake on us. Defense had to get back out there. All in all, good FB game. Third downs 75% top of league, OL working, WRs coming out.”
[q] Key to 75% third? “Geno key. Stayed out of third and longs for the most part. He’s the one to make it happen. Protections, reads right, take care of FB.”
[q] Lots of third and ones, even run on third and 16, good third downs? “Tribute to hard work. Good players. Making the catches. Didn’t get sacked yesterday. Big day, big deal. Running game tagged onto it.”
[q] Dickson still get a paycheck when he doesn’t punt? “LOL”
[q] Geno almost perfect game yesterday. What’s the difference now? “Saw him come off bench and almost win Rams game. Almost Pittsburgh. Right there in all of those. Product of all years and experience benefitting now. Poise and age, maturity. He’s healthy. Great shape. All coming together for him. Chemistry with DK coming to life. Variation of throws to him. Shots of the middle, TD throw last week, coming together. Real plus for us. Also had it real with Tyler.”
[q] Third and 16 a check or a call? “Use your imagination, I’ll let you figure it out. Heated moment in stadium, loud as it can get. Every executed beautifully, perfect play.”
[q] What does Penny do best? “Marvelous ability to explode. Leaves defenders behind. Looks for that moment, crease where he can go like crazy.”
[q] You have to live with short runs as he’s looking for the big runs? “Should have trusted him early in his career. Other plays didn’t look like they were happening. Had alt in Carson. Not enough appreciation. So obvious now can’t wait to get him the ball.”
[q] Tight ends good yesterday? “Love these guys. Love what they’re doing. Can’t tell where they’re coming from. Running routes, getting free off their blocks. Sharing the wealth with each other. Noah will have some huge plays. Coby keep pounding away.”
[q] 3 TE personnel challenges D? “Limits you some, edges on both sides. Dual tight ends, pair situation, triple situation. Will continue to expand that. All 3 can catch the ball. Try to hone in on what defense is doing to us.”
[q] Shane Waldron Year 2 game plans? “Last two weeks. Knew we could go with Geno. Giving him opp to dig into all the cool stuff we can do. No reluctance to call any play, any pass. Got guys to go to. Different RBs, TEs, WRs, makes us really multiple. Most open in any time I can remember.”
[q] Waldron’s personality? “Really smart, witty, creative, easygoing. Really smart. Holds so much stuff. Grace in communications. Convo with headsets on extensive. Work with Geno. No restrictions. Offensive line keep growing. Keep changing, no shots from pass rush.”
[q] Geno fit better than RW? “Watch Goff with Rams. Similar, pocket tall guys. Different than RW. Good on the move. Both guys will do what you tell them. A lot to be said for that. As oppose to guys creative and innovative during play. Geno knows what you’re supposed to do. Darn accurate when he gets his chances.”
[q] Tape defensively, what see? “Explosive plays. Giving up too many. 11 on defense yesterday. Couple missed tackles. Missed 5 in general. Poor tackling only on a couple plays. Improve on. Recognizing tackling situation. Sometimes knock hell out of guy, others, just get him down. Throwing body around but not way for particular situation. Situational tackling, containment important. 7 of the 8 times they got an explosive they scored points. Okay on third down, good on runs except 2 explosive. Right choices at right time. Doing everything you can do to account for explosives. Who is involved. Too many penalties. Makes it hard to stop people. Keep battling, guys will get it.”
[q] What is an explosive? “Michael Ayers, interviewed guy. Science research, analytics. So much info, hired him. Established 16 yard pass, 12 yard run effected drive bettered chances scoring. League adopted that. Son Bryan Ayers works with us now. That’s where it comes from.”
[q] Tariq Woolen Pick Six 21.8 MPH on run back? “We run similar play, he’s been chasing in practice. Not used to seeing that ever. Just caught the tight end and scored. Making a difference. He stole one there. Four games three enormous plays.”
[q] Prediction what he’ll do next Sunday? “Not too cocky.”
[q] Schematically different Sunday on D? “Subs different, different looks. Yeah.”
[q] Mariners walk off tape shown to team? “Shown stuff all season. Magic number 1. Going crazy with it.”
[q] Mariners are great? “Hot as anyone in baseball.”
[q] Tater distracted on challenges? “LOL. I don’t care about the frickin time outs when we’re battling. Magnitude of play on fake punt. I know I’m gonna get killed on this but I don’t care. I guess. I said screw it, I don’t care. The other one, it’s 2:08, I don’t care. Don’t care about percentages.”
[q] You’re 0 for 3 who’s that stat guy that works for you? “Those are total Pete seat of the pants shots. Slow the game down. Big momentum play for them. Like a turnover. Guy shoved ours on the route. Anything goes out there. Great execution by them.”
Who is gonna kill you Pete? Everyone knows you don’t care about clock management.
Poor tackling on only a couple plays? It’s been four games of bad tackling.
Fun win. An almost nail biter when you have 48 points is not time for mariners questions.
“…..An almost nail biter when you have 48 points is not time for mariners questions”
Spot on Peter
His presser came on after the game and I turned the channel.
I can’t do it anymore. For me, it’s no different than the political ads that come on. I just mute them, instead, since I am still watching the game on that channel.
That’s about as damning I can say about the coach of the NFL team I love. He is such a bad obfuscator that I cannot tolerate his interviews. He is arrogant and purposefully glosses over the obvious inadaquicies of his coaching. He deflects, misdirects and ignores the glaring failings.
Totally on the political ads. This time of year is rough. Trying to watch players Rob spots on YouTube and I’ve got to fight up to 2 minutes for an 8 minute clip that again cuts on minute four for more ads.
It’s ten times worse here in Florida.
I can imagine.
Here in OR is mostly banal. When I lived in CO it was pretty wild.
Yes, it was a ‘fun’ game to watch, but not a good or compelling game to watch. The closeness of the score made it ‘compelling, I guess, but almost by default.
Said it before the game and it still stands.
That game didn’t show us anything new about the team.
And the game didn’t really feel as close as the score would indicate. I never felt like Seattle was gonna lose that one. Lead the whole time, countered, seemed in control.
That said, it was definitely fun. If I’m going to spend 2.5 hours inside on a sunny Sunday doing something where I have no personal stakes involved I want to at least be entertained. And entertained I was.
Seeing as it didn’t happen here, some proper questions about the linebackers have to be asked in the general press conference
Great stuff Rob – my real concern is that this team is good enough to beat bad teams whilst having no chance against good ones. Just weird. The analogy I have is that my catcher in college was a .333 hitter (which is great). You dug down into his average and all of a sudden you realize he was hitless against good teams and racked up tons of hits vs bad teams. That’s what Geno/Offense feels like.
I can’t help but have the “I’m just not that excited about destroying bad teams knowing that a modest defense will slow us, potentially to a halt.”
It’s just a weird year, all around, college and pro. I really don’t know what to expect of anything, which makes this a fun year in a sadistic way.
I get that folks are calling for a lot of D help (and obviously a QB) but I keep wondering if they’ll ever spend an earlier pick on a damned Center.
Unpopular modern approach to roster building but if tge right center or guard is there early I’m fine with it. Would love to see some competent center play again in my lifetime.
Unpopular maybe but I watched Thuney and Humphrey kicking major ass for KC last night and I disagree with that approach.
Agree.
My philosophy on positional draft value is pretty clear: I do not care.
Within reason and using a tiny bit of common sense and honesty about your team you get good players in any round you can.
No one has disliked the blown safety picks more than both of us. But I’m sure we can agree that a mid high teens for a safety when he’s Earl Thomas was a great pick.
Agree all the way around
The Colts approach, which for a while there had Ballard garnering way more praise than he should. Investing in interior oline, off ball Lber and DT while having no apparent plan at QB/HC.
You called it. No qb and and a bad head coach for the colts.
And Seattle needs a qb. And a new head coach.
But that doesn’t change my point on positional value. The chiefs are pretty great. Hasn’t hurt them to draft a 2nd round center, multiple second round lb’s, multiple second round safeties, and a first round running back.
It’s almost Seattle like. Just they have a phenomenal qb and a hc who has remained relevant.
Rob mentioned Levis Stroud and Young as the three “name” QBs. I hope the team doesn’t consider Young for all the reasons Rob noted. Unless he’s likely—not possibly, but likely—to become Brees-like.
Brees played at Purdue in a brutal Big 10, before the new QB rules. He led them to the Rose Bowl before running into the “Year of Marques Tuiasosopo”.
I don’t think anyone would expect him to become like Brees.
Well, maybe a desperate team might, but I don’t see Seattle placing that kind of faith in the guy.
He’s too damn slender. If we were talking about a remarkable talent, perhaps. But otherwise it is too risky.
Javonte Williams it for season with turn ACL. I really like the player so that sucks. It does help our draft pick potentially though
They benched Melvin Gordan yesterday due to a bad fumble and went with the #3 guy. He looked pretty good tho not Williams of course. My guess is they’ll bring Gordon out of the doghouse until/unless he has fumbling issues.
NICE TO HAVE: better-than-expected-gino-smith
NEED TO HAVE: the 2022 rob staton daily recovery center (SDB)
—
Surprisingly, I’m finding this season very enjoyable.
Thank you Mr. Staton.
I’m going to start tapping the table for DTR.
I was born into a Bruin family so even though I didn’t attend UCLA as a student I’ve been a Bruins sports fan my entire life. There’s been some lean years for Bruins football, but this season I think is different. Chip Kelly is in his 5th year, and has the full benefit of his recruiting.
DTR has always been more promise than performance. Plus athlete, nice combo of mobility and arm – solid if not spectacular in both. But he lacked experience and a strong supporting cast. This year he has both. I think the QB-RB-WR offensive trio of DTR Zech Charbonnet and Jake Bobo are as solid as any in the nation.
So far this year, DTR has shown much improved decision making. Yes, he’s primarily a one-read passer. But I think that’s as much a consequence of Chip Kelly’s offense (and as Rob rightly points out, CFB in general). But I’m seeing many instances this season where DTR moves through his options. I’m particularly impressed with his stoicism under pressure. He wasn’t mistake prone before, but he looks even less perturbed this year.
What I really like however is his competitive fire. He’s always been a gamer, give him credit. But he’s playing like he’s out to prove something.
With so many holes to fill; with the price of Levis likely to be so high; with Geno playing so competently; maybe the better strategy is a QB prospect like DTR on Day 2 to learn behind Geno and fill some holes at DT/LB/S or even WR with the two first round picks.
Watched the bruins post game presser and him talking about being tge worst 4 and 0 team and running with the huskies….and he says something like “nah, can they run with us?” Sold me.
I like DTR as much as anyone
But I’ve said it again in this article and I will keep saying it
Who is the DT/LB/S you are drafting worthy of the pick?
Admittedly I don’t know yet.
Uhhhh…isn’t this your job? 🤣 I kid but most of us won’t have a. Luella who the next michael Clemons is until you showcase them.
I’m trying my damndest to get a jump on it this year. But it is hard as nails besides watching highlight clips.
Been trying to edit my own “draft breakdown” style bits to use during draft season.
Not Luella.
Have a clue I mean
It’s early. We’ll see more talents emerge in Oct – Nov – Dec. and obviously at the Combine and Pro day(s).
Four picks in the top 45 would be great, as the team could even trade down with one or two of them.
This is going to be the most interesting draft season I can remember for the Seahawks. I’m also young, so that means very little, but this is the first time since I stopped being a “statsheet scout” as a teenager that the Hawks are picking a QB. Truthfully, I loved every year getting to scout other teams’ future QBs, partly out of curiosity, and partly to laugh at how bad they are, cause we had a franchise QB baby! But that’s over now, and it’s time to accept that one of the guys we aren’t sold on is likely to be the starting QB for the Seahawks next year. And I want to be clear here: I’m sold on no one yet.
I was praying to whatever football gods dwell in the arches above Lumen field that we’d get a bumper crop of fresh QBs this year, but no. It looks like 3, maybe 4, guys are the only real options here in the first round. And truthfully, I can’t say I’m certain that any of them will be great. I’ve been wrong plenty of times though, so this year I am trying to judge less, but none of them have me sold.
I like Levis. He’s in an NFL system, facing loads of adversity, and finding success despite. He’s talented, but not freakish. But every time I put on the tape, I find myself looking for more. I honestly can’t say why, I just am underwhelmed. I defer, of course, to Rob on this, he’s waaaaay better at all this than me. But while I think he’s probably going #1 overall, I just am not sold on him.
Stroud’s success, IMO, will be down to his mental talent, not the physical ones. If he has mental strength, processing power, and a desire to learn, he could be the one to break the OSU curse. Similar story for Richardson.
Young is the hardest read in this draft for me. It’s all down to medicals, which I know nothing about. If he can survive the beating, I think he’s shown a lot of the mental aspects of the game during college. He’s got a lot to learn still, and makes mistakes. He also does a nice job though, of finding ways to win as he did against Texas. Without ever having met him, he seems to be mentally tough and driven. He’s also in an NFL derived offense run by Bill O’Brien. I’m afraid of picking the guy cause of his size, but I’ve also made my peace with the possibility he’s in blue and green come fall next year.
Monday Press Conf w PC
[q Boyle] OL what jumps out about you performance? “Consistent pass pro, fantastic job. All movements from Shane helped. Gotta get rid of a couple penalties and stuff. Game wore on, more opps in run game. Game ball OL.”
[q Corbin] Defense nickel & dime sets, Jamal Adams absence contributing to growing pains? “Year ago other way, didn’t have him enough time to develop, this year had enough time but now have to shift gears.”
[q MSD] Defense bad scheme or executing? “Gotta get better, explosive plays too much. Big concern right now. Okay and third down, not well on fourth. Explosive plays giving htem all opps. Not any one thing or another. Just execute better.”
MSD pass rush? “Fire it up more so. Looking for more heat. Coverage tighter. Get more out of it. Until we get that switched around guys have to cover longer.”
[q Neko] Defense conversations, last year D a problem, scheme on field? “More time needed to figure out how we’re zeroing in. Scheme solid, eliminating errors. That’s where our focus is.”
[q Maz Veda] Situational tackling, elaborate? “Different tackling situations, tackling guys on sidelines, approach with leverage, open field, feeding off teammates, guys hung up. Diggs had great tackles cut loose, cut guy down. Open field, just you and him. Can’t make a big hit, calls for conservative approach to tackle, gotta buy time for pursuit to come help. Don’t recognize, problem. By this time now we should be getting that all cleaned up.”
[q Bob Condotta] Secondary play review? “Gotta get rid of plays change field position. Guys learning what they can and cannot do. Clean that up. Giving up too much. Gave up two big plays last week, got opponent out of hole but flip field. Have to recognize, adjust, synch. Tariq last week, Michael one this week. Learn lessons, put some stuff to rest.”
Sydney Jones’ play? “Back in action. Back in the competition, glad to have him back.”
[q Crabtree] how improve on D? “Fit better on down 3 guys. Count on big guys inside. LB and S fitting up properly. Real confident on what we’re doing in the middle, guys can get that job done. Bunch of plays they didn’t make anything. 50 and 20 yarder half their yardage, didn’t have to make them at all.”
Dee Eskridge? “Great to get him out there. Tough kid, blocking well. Anxious to keep including him. Middle of season should be a big factor in what we’re doing.”
[q Gregg Bell] right personnel on D? “Still competing. All guys contribution. Mafe played a lot, that’s getting going. More to come. Chance LJ Collier comes back this week. Keep working it, finding our way, making sure we get all the right info. Most rotate continuing to do so.”
D take longer? “I hope not. I’m over the waiting part.”
New Orleans not bye after Britain? “Not sure. Anxious to talk to those guys about it. Big a trip you can make. Hope they’re tired.”
[q Brady] Ryan Neal factor more playing? “Yes. Factor continuing. Expand his playtime to get more opps. Like the guy on the field. Fiery, feisty makes things happen. Grow his opps.”
Daryl Johnson ankle injury? “Will take a while. Hurt his foot. Stress fracture type thing. Significant.”
[q Bob Condotta] Geno when did the team become his this offseason? “I wouldn’t say that. Understood competition. Very respectful, such a pro as was Drew. Get along great. Set it in motion with thought that Drew would get his chance. Geno dealt beautifully, Drew ready if the chance comes. Disciplined about the process.”
[q Meko] New Orleans offense, Winston Dalton? “Different style, but can throw ball all over. Not big runners, but can move. Gotta give props to both, played a lot of football. Made good decisions. High regard for both.”
[q Crabtree] Cross and Lucas progress? “Logging time and going to bank with it. More comfortable. Communicate more readily. Can get better. Tough enough. Big credit to those guys. Protecting QB well, better than past years. Expect to get better too, just getting started. They’re having a blast.”
Well, you are being very generous writing this:
Because the actual question made reference to Ken Norton Jr and the Head of Media (?) had to remind the questioner that Norton was no longer with the team.
I was. That reporter has asked many questions that really show he’s barely up to speed with the team. Or the sport for that matter.
It’s too bad because it was a decent question.
I wasn’t even sure what his question was.
I thought Carroll was very generous answering it at all.
Cool analysis of Seattles OL success on Sunday, even special mention for D Lewis from his much lamented LG position. https://youtu.be/eIk2xQUJe2I
I really want to see Abe Lucas get a good crack on Aaron Donald.
Another fantastic ‘House of the Dragon’ episode this week
I’m looking forward to the Game of Thrones romantic comedy: Four Weddings and a Funeral.
The princess is pretty much banging everything with a heartbeat at this point. In the lore of the books, how far back does the Targaryen line become incestuous? Because I’m getting the impression that it starts right around this point.
No, it started way earlier going back to that doomed nation of Valeria.
Yeah, it’s pretty much what they do
Yeah, basically as far back as Martin has written. The Valyrians were like royalty: keep it in the family because are lineages are the best. Rhaenyra’s parents were cousins. her grandparents were siblings. Just as an example. This show is amazing. It is my stress relief after the Seattle games.
Given what we’ve heard about various times the Hawks tried to trade up into the draft to select a QB, I think there are two QB’s that they’ll be very interested in.
Levis
Richardson
The Seahawks appear to really look for freak athletes at QB. Highly mobile, big arms, strong/physical builds.
I honestly wouldn’t doubt if Richardson were at the top of their board.
I think Stroud fits that description too
Is this sparq or something else? He looks like a big strong dude bit I can’t see based on the typical metrics which all I have to go off on is rushing.
Well, he looks very athletic on tape. Big arm. Can do freaky things.
DTR is a good College QB…. He played a horrific UW secondary!! Which is actually an understatement. The Huskies Secondary, especially on the road, will make any College QB look great!! Any of those QB’s that can run and can make average to good throws are going to 99% of the time make life miserable for this Husky D…. It also doesn’t help when UW can’t get any pressure on the QB when they play on the road…. I actually see UW’s secondary struggling again this week @ASU…. Going forward, playing @ both OREGON w/ Nix & @WSU w/ Ward are most likely going to be losses….. As far as the Hawks go, I personally wouldn’t wouldn’t waist a 1st or 2nd round pick in next years draft on a QB. I know this isn’t a favorable opinion, but I just don’t like the talent @ the position. AND, I really don’t trust Pete & the current FO to get the pick right TBH. SEATTLE’s D is terrible!! We need LB, Safety, IDL, Edge & Corner help badly! We can also use some help on another WR ….AND, If the Defensive Prospects in the upcoming draft lack a 1st round grade…. The hawks may need to get more value and trade down Acquiring more 2nd & 3rd round picks to somehow bolster ate pathetic Defense. & who knows if this is even the correct strategy?? All I know is I don’t trust the current Regime in drafting a franchise QB in the 1st round….. Especially when there isn’t a #1 qb prospect in the 2023 draft! We should NEVER reach & draft a QB in the 1st or 2nd rounds just because we need a qb…. The Hawks need to make there early draft picks count! THEY NEED 2 DRAFT W/ A PURPOSE🍻
So you don’t like the QB’s. Fine.
Tell me which defensive players you’re drafting in R1 then.
Would you consider trading up for Will Anderson?
Finally plug that EDGE hole once and for all?
Boye Mafe and Tyreke Smith are rookies. Give them a chance.
Won’t be any good if you can’t plug the long term hole at QB
Based on what I’m seeing most of the defensive talent taken in the first round is going to be at the back end and from the back end.
Keep an eye out for Ivan Pace Jr. (LB, Cincinnati) Myself and a few other posters have been talking him up for a few weeks, and he is having a monster year.
Pace has played great for UC so far, and after 5 games he leads the country in TFLs with 12.5, 4 more over the 2nd place guys. http://www.cfbstats.com/2022/leader/national/player/split01/category21/sort01.html
Against Arkansas of the SEC in game 1 he had 12 tackles, one sack, and 3.5 TFLs. A week+ ago against Indiana of the Big Ten he had 15 tackles, 4.5 TFLs, 2.5 sacks with 3 QB hurries. After game 4 vs. Indiana PFF reported that at that time he had 6 QB hurries with -2 yds. in coverage and 2 PBUs, and was the highest rated off ball LB in the CFB in 2022. Have you had a chance to look at Pace, Rob?
We need Levis in rd. 1, but so much more not only on D, but also a starting C and G. Still confused as to why there were so many good LBs in the draft and a few in FA, and we didn’t draft or sign any but 2nd-3rd string backups in FA. The Lions got Malcolm Rodriguez in rd. 6, and he played decent the first couple weeks, although their D as a whole is almost as bad as ours.
9ers do draft and develop well on defense to go with Kyle’s offense.
5th round safety has become a playmaker.
When does Hawks get exciting again?
My wife, who is not into football – but somehow manages to field a ridiculously good fantasy football team of players with cool names, pretty faces and appropriately colored uniforms-. Just informed me that Geno Smith is better than Matthew Stafford.
And I can’t really tell her she’s wrong can I? Is she right? Weird ass world.
Well, if the defense keeps giving him the ball back every 30 seconds, yeah. It’s all about opportunity.
GRAYSON MCCALL, NEED TO WATCH THE GUY ASAP, HE IS OUR GUY.
NO HE ISN’T
Hey Rob, Bo Nix can’t play against SEC defenses but looks good against mediocre Pac 12 teams. Could be our Geno Smith for the future who plays terrible against 49ers and looks great against the Lions. What are the chances that the Seahawks take a late round flyer on….nevermind:)
I really think that QB needs to be one of our Top-2 picks. Of all the QBs, Levis, Richardson and Stroud would be my pick in that order. I know that Levis is the most ready of those three. I think that Richardson would definitely need to sit longer than Stroud, but I also think Stroud would need to unlearn what he’s gotten away with at OSU.
Looking at defense, I agree with Rob I don’t see many guys at the top of the draft that jump out screaming “GAME-changer”. I think Myles Murphy, Trenton Simpson or Isaiah Foskey could provide some much needed help, but missing out on a top QB could hurt us. I’m curious what the 2nd levels of QBs pans out to look like
I watched Richardson this week and I want him. Geno is showing he MIGHT be good enough to run the offense at an acceptable enough level that young guys can still develop around him. This would give the team a year to sit a guy like Richardson and let him get up to speed a bit. You may still have a growing pains type year in his second season but i think itd be worth the wait. I was amazed a few times watching him. Honestly any hopes that he goes past the first round, or even later in the first round, are pretty much doused for me. A lot of teams will see the wow factor and not want to let someone else take on the project.
I agree with you. I think that Richardson will go top 20 just based on potential. Having him sit for a year it is never a bad thing. Especially if we keep the offensive coordinator and QB coach around. I know that Rob has mentioned Hall and I could see him being a 2nd rd pick. If Richardson is our guy (after Levis of course), I say we grab him and then load up on BPA with our other picks in the 1st/2nd rd.
Having young talent that can grow together on that cheap while hopefully we can start getting rid of that money is something we need to look at. I think Rob mentioned in a podcast that next season we’re paying over $35M in our SAFETY positions alone (Diggs & Adams). If Ryan Neal has a good year, I don’t see him coming back for peanuts. Jones is a complete headache. We have painted our self into a really bad corner regarding the safety position and I think that it may need to be addressed sooner than later
hi Rob
watched 9ers second-year safety Talanoa Hufanga get a pick six on MNF and he looks like a Troy Polamalu in the making. I am thinking of Diggs and his age and maybe Seahawks draft a late round safety any free safeties that has caught your eye that the SDB community can also start researching/investigating?
See my article to be published on Tuesday
Rob, what do you think about Will Rogers, QB of Miss. St.? He had over 4700 yards with 36 TDs/9 int. on 74% passing last year, and has 19 TD/3 int. with 73% completion rate this year. Looks like he can throw a moon ball like Russ as well as short to medium passes and go through his progressions. Wonder if he could be another option mid-late rd. 1 or on day 2 if we are out of the top 5 and can’t trade up for the best 2-3 QBs? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EkCc0XEhw7Y
How about Tua’s brother at Maryland? He’s throwing at 75% this year, and had 26 TDs/11 int. on 69% comp. rate last year. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0XyfaUp4RQ
Just looking for other options to look at with D T-R of UCLA or Hall of BYU in case Levis, Stroud, etc. are gone.
Currently, I am watching around five full games of college football per weekend to make sure I watch every game of the top QB’s in the 2023 draft.
This is all done as a hobby in my spare time. It dominates my personal life and I fit it in as a second full-time job, adjacent to an incredibly busy full-time job which involves a lot of time/travel.
I simply don’t have the time to watch every QB. I try and keep up with some of the names people ask me about — but I can’t watch every one.
What I would say is the chances are most of these players, even if they are producing moderately well — if they’re not being talked about by now for the next level, there’s probably a reason for that. And the Seahawks need to shoot for the stars here, not dabble around the later rounds.
I have watched Tua’s brother a bit. He is erratic — too erratic I would say. Has some great plays and some very bad ones. At times I’ve thought he might even be better than his brother but then he does something silly and you pump the brakes.
I will try and watch Rogers at some point but just want to stress — I can’t watch everyone guys.
This is gonna be rough…
This team – apart from the QB – needs at least one OG
An OC
One ILB
Probably one OLB
At least a free safety
At least one better DT
Probably at least one DE
Probably a WR3
We can’t have all or most from the draft. Probably wouldn’t work either as the defense needs some strong veteran voice and leadership.
So I checked the FAs in the next offseason
As for the iOL, I don’t watch that much NFL, and not an expert evaluating OL, and they don’t even have stats, so all I can say there’ll be a lot of FA OGs, 41 not counting extensions of course, and 33 of those are younger than 30 y/o. Some of those are ERFAs, but probably around 15 guys are in a good age-range (26-29) and regular UFAs. If 8 will hit the market, it is reasonable we could sign one of them who is better than Haynes/Lewis/Jackson
18 OCs will be regular FAs, 13 of them between 26 and 31 years old. Again, I’m not an expert, but if we remove previous and current Hawks players, it’d leave us with 11 players. I’d guess better players will be extended, so not sure if we could upgrade in FA or not, but not too likely for me.
ILB is pretty dire…we have Brooks who is OKish, but we need someone better than him and bench/cut Barton. Found couple of guys guys who could be an upgrade: Edmunds, Anzalone, Smith, TJ Edwards.
Roquan Smith is listed as LB, but he’s probably more ILB than OLB. He’s also an option, although expensive one. Edmunds is pretty good, but would take a lot of money, and he might extend anyway. Anzalone is a step-down maybe but he could be an option potentially. Edwards is nothing special, but could work out well and be a step-up from Barton and maybe even from Brooks. But to me, that’s pretty much all more or less.
There’s also Leighton Vander Esch, who is listed an OLB, but in 3-4 to me (to my untrained eyes) seems more of an ILB. If he could fit he’s also an option.
3-4 OLBs:
3 names popped up: Bradley Chubb, Lorenzo Carter, Oshane Ximines
Chubb will demand a really high salary and probably extended anyway. Carter and Ximines are on a different level, but could help the passrush. Not sure how good they are against the run, but could add a playmaking sparkle. But this seems a pretty shallow FA pool for OLBs.
We can forget free safety upgrade from the FAs. Most of them are old or bad. Only bigger name, who could work out would be Jordan Poyer, but he’ll likely get extended, or would feel to high-priced for that position while we pay Adams also.
There’ll be a couple interesting DT options, like: Shy Tuttle, Hassan Ridgeway, Jerry Tillery, Sheldon Rankins, Larry Ogunjobi, David Onyemata, Javon Hargrave, DaRon Payne, Fletcher Cox, Chris Wormley, Greg Gaines, Jonathan Hankins, Armon Watts
They could cost between 6-13m/year. We need at least quality depth, but probably someone who could push Ford, Mone to be depth players. Woods can be good, but he’s also getting pretty old. If we could get a playmaker, bigger name DT that would be awesome and would help a lot with our run defense with some added passrush as a plus. But if the money and final players not align well, we should at least target someone who is somewhat better than our current guys.
DE feels a bit more shallow. Found our old friend Rasheem Green. Well he wasn’t a superstar, but he had 6,5 sacks last year and already 2,5 sack this year. Maybe a reunion would be good for the RIGHT money, but can’t remember how good he was against the run. Another names are Dalvin Tomlinson and Samson Ebukam. Not a high performers on the statsheet, but likely wouldn’t break the bank badly either. Yannick Ngakoue will also be an FA. He always had 8 or more sacks during his career years. He also created 21 fumbles in 6 years (not counting this year), only is ’16 he didn’t have any FF, but the other years he had multiple 4 FF years one with 7 and one with 2. He seems to be a playmaker and he did this with multiple teams. I wouldn’t be against him for the right price and if he fits this defensive scheme.
I don’t feel there’s logic behind getting a WR3 from FA. You don’t wanna spend really high amount of money for them and if you spend small, there won’t be much upgrade in production. If you train that WR to be WR2 when Lockett starts to get older it’s fine, but then you need a young guy for that.
If the team wants a bit better production than Eskridge and Goodwin or Hart, but don’t break the bank, there are maybe some options, but I doubt the team would go that route: Demarcus Robinson, Noah Brown, Chris Moore, Parris Campbell, Zach Pascal. But yeah…not sure, I would rather draft someone in mid rounds.
So…after all this:
I’d try to get an OG, ILB and DT in FA. Hawks have 47m cap space if I can trust sportac with 33 players signed. Draft will take a lot of money with all the high picks. They can make some money by trading/cutting Mone (3m space, around 1m dead), Woods (4m space, 2m dead), Jefferson (same), Jackson (6,5m save 3m dead) with some acceptable dead money. We can’t rid of Diggs, only post june 1 and it would not create much money. Diggs would create a lot of dead money (8m), but could create 10-14m CAP space also.
I feel there should be enough space to sign a decent/good DT, OG and ILB. That 3 would cost around 9+10+7, so 26m. If we can get some CAP relief by cutting/trading some dead weight to me it should feel doable, especially with a bit of a backloaded contracts.
But we’d still need to hit home for QB, OLB, WR3, OC, DE, FS in draft and hope our young guys develop well to even have some chance to be really competitive in next year