I touched on this yesterday but wanted to flesh it out a bit more today. If the Seahawks end up with the #11 pick (currently their highest pick, courtesy of Denver) what could they realistically do with it?
It’s not going to be high enough to get a top young quarterback to develop behind Geno Smith or one of the very best defensive linemen.
For the here and now, nothing would be more impactful for this team than a truly dynamic interior rusher who can wreck games. It would knit everything together on defense. Longer term, I don’t think the success of Geno Smith should dissuade the Seahawks from considering investing in someone to develop as a potential successor. Especially if that player has incredible upside potential to be a top-level starter. Let’s call it ‘the reverse Indianapolis Colts’ — investing properly in the most important position in the sport for the present and future.
The second tier needs are arguably a dynamic third receiver, safety (given they have a decision to make on Quandre Diggs’ $18m salary in 2023, plus potentially Jamal Adams’ $18m too), linebacker (although I think the Seahawks view LB2 as a position of lesser importance in this scheme) and it’s never bad thing to keep adding talent to your offensive line.
So what are the options with the top pick as things stand today?
My personal opinion on the top five picks right now is that it will include:
Will Levis (QB)
C.J. Stroud (QB)
Will Anderson (DE)
Jalen Carter (DT)
Anthony Richardson (QB)
After that I think you can make a strong case that the best remaining players are:
Bijan Robinson (RB)
Michael Mayer (TE)
Bryce Young (QB)
Mazi Smith (DT)
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB)
Quentin Johnston (WR)
I don’t necessarily think this group will make up the top-11. Two running backs taken in that range would be unusual, for example. I don’t think it’ll be a surprise, though, if both Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs receive high grades. Robinson in particular will be a top-three player on most (if not all) boards.
I would suggest a player from ‘Group A’ is unlikely to last to #11. A player from ‘Group B’ lasting is very plausible.
The problem is ‘Group B’ includes positions like running back and tight end. Neither are big needs nor do they present great value with a high first round pick.
Elsewhere, Bryce Young’s size will be a big question mark for a lot of teams and despite the media narrative — I don’t think he is anything close to a lock to go as high as many mock drafts are projecting. Mazi Smith is a very disruptive, talented player who will blow up the combine. Yet his lack of arm length will be a turn-off for some teams (and Seattle has been quite strict with arm length at his position). Quentin Johnston has outstanding size and an amazing physical profile. He’s a potential X-factor player but he can be inconsistent with his hands and he has disappeared in some games despite playing for a high-octane offense.
There are other players the media are touting to go in the top-15 and in some cases, certain prospects are being declared as ‘locks’ to go very early.
One of those players is Texas Tech pass rusher Tyree Wilson. When I watched him I came away wanting more. There are flashes but I didn’t see a hair-on-fire pass rusher every week. Yet I can also see why the league likes him. According to reports quoting league sources, he’s a shoe-in to be a high pick.
According to Jim Nagy, Wilson has nearly 36 inch arms. He’s also listed at 6-6 and 275lbs. I suspect he’s closer to 6-5 and 265lbs but even so — he has great size and length and those measurables are projectable for the next level. Wilson is also productive with 14 TFL’s and seven sacks in nine games this season and 27.5 TFL’s and 14 sacks since the start of last season.
When you pair measurables with production — he’s basically strong testing away from being a player with everything the league looks for at his position. I find it hard to bang the table for Wilson but I also understand why he will appeal to NFL decision makers in round one.
Then there are the Clemson pair of Bryan Bresee and Myles Murphy. Bresee’s SPARQ testing was incredible — running a 4.21 short shuttle at 290lbs. His overall score was a positional best 106.83. Murphy is big and athletic. Both are regularly mocked in the early first round.
However, Bresee had a bad ACL injury a year ago and just isn’t making an impact this season. He did suffer some incredibly sad news recently, following the death of his sister. That could be playing a justifiable part in his average play. Yet it’s hard to watch him on tape — despite the athletic profile — and feel like you’d be drafting an impact defensive lineman.
As for Murphy — I’ve talked about him a lot recently. He looks like a great athlete for his size but his frame lacks muscle definition and his run defending is shocking for a player at his size. He feels to me like someone who gets by in college because of his athletic qualities. In the NFL he won’t be able to lean on that. He’ll have to do more and play better. Shaq Lawson is my go-to comparison.
I love the idea of drafting an impact defensive lineman early in round one a year after rebuilding the tackle position. That’s the kind of focus on the trenches this team has needed for some time. Yet I also think forcing positional preferences is how you end up with L.J. Collier and Germain Ifedi (admittedly players I didn’t dislike pre-draft).
As such, this is how I feel today (and this is subject to change)…
— I maintain that I think Anthony Richardson has remarkable potential and the ability to become one of the best players in the NFL if he’s given time to learn and develop. If he’s available for the Seahawks I hope they seriously consider drafting him and stashing him. I think he will be long gone though. His play is constantly improving, he is showing NFL teams he can function in a pro-style offense and make adjustments at the LOS. He has as much physical upside coming into the league as anyone not named Josh Allen.
— Assuming Will Anderson and Jalen Carter are unavailable — I am sceptical that D-line will be the best choice. It’s possible they truly believe in one of Murphy, Bresee, Wilson or Smith to be a cornerstone player. I am not sold on that quartet providing great value in the top-12. I like Smith best of the four.
— I think adding more talent to a group that is blossoming and competing before our eyes would be a good idea — regardless of position. Add quality and depth.
The problem is I completely understand concerns with that final point.
If you draft Bijan Robinson, you might get the best player in the draft. Yet every time Robinson’s on the field Ken Walker isn’t. And vice versa. That isn’t a great use of resources even if that talent level would be through the roof. Yes it’d be solid insurance but you could arguably gain the same benefit from selecting Zach Charbonnet or Kenny McIntosh later on. Or re-signing Rashaad Penny (who might be cheap due to his latest injury).
If you draft Michael Mayer you could end up with a Travis Kelce-level tight end. Now, he’s a very different physical athlete to Kelce. That’s not why I’m making the comparison. I doubt Mayer will match Kelce’s 4.61 forty.
However, the one thing they both share is an ability to get open and understand how to exploit coverage. Kelce’s made a living of settling into the right areas to provide an outlet for Patrick Mahomes. He’s also a highly explosive playmaker of course — but it’s those key conversions he produces where Mahomes needs an open man that are so back-breaking. You can feed him production due to his reliability. Mayer has provided a similar outlet for Notre Dame.
The other thing Kelce does that you see in Mayer is that short-area quickness and agility. Kelce ran a 4.42 short shuttle and a 7.09 three-cone. As we’ve been discussing for years on the blog, these times are vital for the position. On tape you see Mayer separate in coverage superbly against much quicker, smaller defensive backs. It’s a thing of beauty to see him shake off a cornerback at 265lbs. Like Kelce he has a natural ability to get open and win 1v1. He can also stretch the field and deliver those big, explosive plays.
This all sounds great but the Seahawks are loaded at the position. Will Dissly, Noah Fant and Colby Parkinson are contracted until the end of 2023 at the latest. All three could be extended. All three, currently, are producing at a high level. It’s also worth noting that Dissly and Parkinson are fourth rounders and Fant was part of the Russell Wilson trade. They’re getting good value without needing to spend big.
This has also been a very difficult position to project over the years.
Kyle Pitts — an athletic freak who looked like a sure thing — has not been able to dominate to the extent many expected. T.J. Hockenson had everything coming into the NFL — physicality, blocking skills, ideal agility testing and explosive traits. He’s just been dealt by Detroit and has shone in flashes without becoming consistently dominant.
Meanwhile the top tight ends over recent years have been taken in round three (Kelce, Mark Andrews), round five (George Kittle) and round six (Darren Waller).
As such, you can look at it two ways. Now that the Seahawks are utilising tight ends more than before — you can somewhat justify trying to add a great one. I do think Mayer has the potential to become a player who can impact games like Kelce. As well as Seattle’s tight ends are playing — could you imagine a Kelce-level player acting essentially as your ‘WR3’ working alongside D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett?
Mayer has lined up in the slot 131 times this year, compared to his 102 snaps as an in-line tight end. Last year he had 227 snaps in the slot versus 172 in-line. He produces 12 yards per reception in college and has 14 touchdowns in 21 games despite not playing in a super-productive passing offense. He has a 90.6 PFF grade overall and on 316 run-blocking snaps — he’s grading at a 77.2. Not bad for such a dynamic pass-catching weapon.
On the other hand — history is not on the side of drafting a tight end early. You can invariably find good ones later on, as Seattle has done. They are currently well stocked at the position. Presumably you’d spend a high first round pick on a tight end to be the focal point — not mix in and out with two or three other TE’s?
Mayer might be the most talented player available when Seattle picks but whether you can justify it is clearly debatable.
Then you have Quentin Johnston. Physically he looks a bit like Richard Sherman mixed with a 10lbs lighter version of Larry Fitzgerald. That sounds odd but he’s long and lean in the arms/legs like Sherman but with fantastic muscle definition.
Reportedly he can jump a 42-inch vertical and an 11-foot broad, plus run a 4.4 forty. He’s 6-4 and 215lbs. At his best, he is highly explosive and quick. When he runs with the ball in his hands he looks like the T1000 charging towards John Connor.
I buy into the theory that in the modern NFL you’re only as good as your third receiver. The stress it puts on a defense to cover so many weapons is almost as back-breaking as having a superb collection of pass rushers on the other side of the ball. Both Super Bowl teams last season had an assortment of dynamic weapons.
That said, how you acquire that receiver — and who the player is — again presents a challenge. For example, should the Seahawks set out to find a solid, dependable veteran WR3 rather than throw resource at young and unproven? Or should a third weapon at the position be more of a day two option rather than a top-15 pick? Especially with the great depth of talent entering the league annually?
Can you wait until day two for a Jonathan Mingo, Cedric Tillman, Zay Flowers or Jaxon Smith-Njigba? I could list a whole bunch of other names too.
And while the Dee Eskridge pick so far hasn’t worked out — Seattle’s top-tier receivers are former second (Metcalf) and third (Lockett) round picks.
Johnston has outstanding physical upside but he’s had six games with four or fewer catches despite playing in a pass-friendly offense. He has had three sub-30 yard games. His 2022 numbers are a weird mix of underwhelming and dominant (14 catches, 206 yards vs Kansas and eight catches for 180 yards vs Oklahoma State).
It’s still early and the Senior Bowl and combine will provide greater clarity. Yet it feels like unless the Seahawks do end up with a top-five pick (I think there’s almost no chance and Denver, while not being very good, will not be terrible enough to be quite that bad) they’ll end up compromising in some way. Either by taking a bit of a risk to fill a positional need or adding a very talented player at a position (eg tight end or running back) that isn’t much of a need at all.
Like I said — right now I’m leaning towards just adding talent. I think that top pick should be an opportunity to do just that — add someone really good. It is, to an extent, a luxury for Seattle to be as good as they’ve shown so far this season and still pick early in round one (thanks to Denver). They have enough stock to address more pressing areas later on. There are good defensive linemen, safeties, receivers and offensive linemen who will be available in the late first round and during day two.
In the 2022 draft, the value matched positional needs. The 2023 class might be slightly different.
People will react poorly to this suggestion but I don’t think it’d be the worst thing in the world — and might actually build off what was achieved this year — to go for something like:
Take Bijan Robinson (RB), Michael Mayer (TE) or Quentin Johnston with your first pick based purely on talent. Then consider, with your next three picks, the likes of:
DT — Zacch Pickens, Keanu Benton, Calijah Kancey, Tyler Davis
C — John Michael Schmitz, Joe Tippman, Ricky Stromberg, Olusegun Oluwatimi, Sedrick Van Pran
DE — Byron Young, Mike Morris
EDGE — K.J. Henry, B.J. Ojulari, Tyrus Wheat, Will McDonald
Safety — Christopher Smith, Ji’Ayir Brown, JL Skinner, Brian Branch
WR — Jalin Hyatt, Cedric Tillman, Zay Flowers, Jonathan Mingo, Jaxon Smith-Njigba
TE — Luke Musgrave, Darnell Washington, Dalton Kincaid
RB — Zach Charbonnet, Kenny McIntosh
OT > G — Peter Skoronski, Jaelyn Duncan, Jordan McFadden, Jordan Morgan, Broderick Jones
Talent acquisition is the order of the day, after all, to land another A+ draft in 2023. Not ticking off positions for the sake of it.
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So if no QB that can step in and start on day one, we’re looking at extending Geno. Seahawks twitter says franchise tag but we don’t have the cap space for the $45 million that would require ($32 million if they went with the non-exclusive tag, still more cap space than we have). So what are we looking at Rob? I don’t see him taking a 1 year, $25 million “prove-it” deal since that could crush our cap as well. 2 years, $60 million, with $35 million guaranteed? I guess part of the answer depends on what a QB hungry team (Colts, anyone?) might be willing to throw at him.
I suspect we’d be looking at the end of the Drew Lock era as well if we want to draft a QB to learn behind Geno.
You can’t franchise him. Sadly Seahawks Twitter don’t seem to have much concept of the salary cap.
I think the thing to remember is this is a great season for Geno but he’s a player everyone passed over for years. I am not convinced everyone is going to go all-out to break the bank to lure him away. Especially with a good looking QB class and a number of alternatives who could be ‘the next Geno’ set to hit the market. I’m not convinced he’ll get an offer so good to the extent that Seattle won’t be able to match it.
This is why I think you have to let the market set his value.
From there, you could potentially set the deal up where the average is handsome but the cap hits are spread out — with Seattle protecting themselves with an ‘out’.
My preferred option is signing Geno with a big 2024 roster bonus. Something like $18-20 million due March 1.
If Draft Pick has developed in 2023 to the point the Seahawks want him to start in 2024, the Seahawks can trade him, or decline the option and make him a free agent.
If he hasn’t, the Seahawks convert the bonus to signing bonus and spread the hit out and Geno makes bank.
There are other creative options.
Wouldn’t Geno want a 2023 roster bonus? I sure hope we can figure this out and keep Geno a little longer. Is the non-exclusive tag unreasonable at this point? (I don’t know which is why I’m asking).
Oh yes, on top of a signing bonus in 2023 is what I meant.
The 2024 roster bonus is meant to give the Seahawks options and reward Geno with either a) a big chunk of money or b) his ability to explore the market one more time.
Cool, that seems like a good plan then
Numbers are probably no longer viable but the structure could still work for sure.
https://seahawksdraftblog.com/instant-reaction-seahawks-beat-cardinals-move-to-3-3#comment-647546
I still think 25M is his floor but this is a very workable plan for both sides…unless Geno wants 32M. Time will tell.
Man cha, we are lucky to have you here.
Seconded
Thanks!
Is the DUI thing dead? If not, does the possibility of a multi-game suspension somehow change the math?
A beat reporter this winter reached out to the police and they said it would take up to 10 months to process the evidence. Well that was up last month.
Geno was asked about it in June and said ‘he doesn’t see any problems arising from it.’
The police haven’t issued a statement and the press hasn’t asked, that I know of.
Perfect
Hi Rob,
Do you think the success of Geno this year is because of his talent/maturity and finally putting it all together with the opportunity?
Or do you think its because of the coaching (Pete and Shane) and system he has here in Seattle?
If its the coaching/system of Seattle, and with the weapons we have; could we expect similar play from Drew Lock?
Drew Lock has the arm talent. He is turnover prone though. He wasn’t given a fair chance in Denver, with the coaching changes. And the pressure to be the savior of the Broncos.
He will have a year in this system and maybe Pete can reign him in to be less turnover prone.
I was thinking if Geno is too expensive next year, why not resign Lock for cheap and draft a QB in the later rounds.
Thanks!
I think it’s a bit of everything, given how well he has played
I’m not against keeping Geno & Drew and trying to let Drew learn to take over down the line
Couldn’t agree more. Though, I’d like to add that, however it shakes out, the front office needs to get the Geno situation settled in time to attack the draft with a clear plan and avoid a “Clowney” situation.
Cut/extenf/restructure two of Diggs, Ford and Harris and that frees up enough cash to non exclusive franchise Smith and take care of business otherwise.
If another team gives up two firsts for the signing him. So be it.
Obviously the priority should be not needing to franchise him, by extending him. I think the Tannerhill contract with some inflation is comparable.
You can’t franchise him
That would be a disaster for your cap
Unless you want Geno to maybe play a couple of positions next year, or play a 5 man defense
Man, what a fun problem to have though in comparison to many other draft years.
“What to do with their two 1st rounds picks”? is a wonderful problem, Especially with one of which being a top 12 pick received from Denver and their native pick possibly being amongst the playoff teams. Without the need to chase a QB who you may or may not love.
In some order, I agree with the positions discussed. WR3 who can develop into your WR2 over time, Trying to identify a disruptive dlineman, or at least someone who can play very well in what is a solid rotation right now – though planning beyond Woods, Harris, Ford, Mone would be wise. I think there would be significant value in grabbing the first iol off the board; be it any of the guys listed in the article or Skoronski as an OT to IOL convert like Zach Martin and Mitch Morse.
It would not shock me one bit if the Seahawks took Mayer at #11, that minutes later their phone would ring with a solid offer for Fant.
A team wanting another weapon to upgrade their offense and given the lack of plug and play talent in the draft, being willing to send a fairly decent pick over. Maybe some kind of swap, the Seahawks’ fifth and Fant for their third, something like that.
The thing that the Superb Owl team had that the ‘hawks have been missing almost ever since is depth on the roster. The drop-off in performance from the rotational & back-up players wasn’t such as to weaken the team (although never having to start Robert Turbin was probably a good slice of luck). So drafting quality players, rather than getting average players in positions of need, works for me. Another TE would not be a terrible idea, bearing in mind that they are going with a lot of 3 TE sets, so at least one of them is bound to get nicked up eventually. If you want to keep improving then you bring in guys who can make the team, regardless of what position they play.
Having said that, if this team keeps improving then this may be their only chance to get in range of a decent QB prospect. So I can see them trading the house to get to the top of the draft for Levis or Richardson.
Either way, it should be an exciting draft.
It was revealed that Noah Fant was the “upset” that happened in the 2019 draft. Denver got him at 20, and we proceeded immediately to trade out of 21 and everything went downhill from there. That tells me two things:
1. They are willing to take a TE in R1 if they think he can be special. (that year, tbf, it also matched a big need)
2. Now that we have Fant and he is starting to play well, would they want to trade him away? I remember JS always talking about grading against your own roster. If you are upgrading from a UDFA level player, of course Mayer is a huge upgrade. But if you are “only” upgrading over Fant, it seems like less of an upgrade.
Of course, if you believe Mayer will be truly special, you go for it anyways.
I think a WR3 would arguably be a bigger upgrade, and Lockett isn’t going to last forever either. Then again, there is only one potentially great TE prospect in this draft, whereas good WRs are a dime a dozen every year these days.
Good discussions worth having.
I think Fant is going to be more expensive to sign than people realize.
Hunter Henry ($12.5m AAV) and David Njoku ($13.69m AAV) don’t have Fant’s overall catch numbers (Henry did have 8TD for the Chargers though) and they banked in.
People have mentioned about extending Fant and lowering his $6.85m cap hit in 2023. I’m not sure that will fit with the Seahawks’ typical structure. That number fits nicely right where it is if they wish to keep him.
I love the idea of getting Jalin Hyatt with our second pick in the first round, exactly the kind of receiver they love and I think the perfect compliment to Tyler and DK.
I think his ability to separate quickly when mostly playing against lesser CBs would lead to some big plays.
Great article Rob as always. Like the options for Hawks at this moment. As we know things will change from now till season ends will give right draft order, injuries ( fingers crossed) and free agency which will clear the picture. Exciting time coming up draft wise and we have fun season. Yay.
Rob, I’m also looking forward for Ind Vs Eng T-20 cricket world cup. Not sure if you are following. I know you are crazy.
Raiders are releasing Johnathan Abram. Any interest? If anything happens to Neal, we could use a solid backup plan.
I’m not against bringing him in
That’s a mess of a franchise. Even still, I liked him quite a lot at MissSt
Practice squad first.
Would much rather see him than Josh Jones in our 3 safety package
Great article Rob. I really do wonder what they will do with Penny: make a low but competitive offer or move on.
Very much agree with the positional value of those two options (TE, RB). For me, I would prefer a trade down rather than draft a position that can be addressed later on, and isn’t a huge roster need.
Of course that assumes there’s a good enough deal to be made, which is uncertain.
Would you rather trade down though and end up with a lesser quality player?
I think that’s the dilemma here. Sure, we can avoid drafting a top player at a position that isn’t a big need. But how do you balance that out vs getting a great player? What if Mayer is another Kelce or Robinson another Adrian Peterson? Because that’s better than getting the next LJ Collier or Darrell Taylor
I agree. Don’t fight the board to chase need; especially when the needs aren’t crippling needs such as if there was a hole at QB or LT.
Fill the roster with the closest things to blue chips that you can find. Bijan/Walker would make every single game/drive tremendously difficult on the opponent; and prior to Penny’s injury they were running some 2 RB packages with both of them on the field, so that is in their playbook.
The tremendously successful 2022 draft had them just taking really really good players as they presented themselves to the Hawks; and they didn’t chase the perceived need at QB by throwing a way a pick on Ridder/Willis a round earlier than the league had them graded (people were screaming for Willis in the early 2nd – what a waste that would have been).
I can remember when people were mocking Willis in the top-10. Can remember when Seahawks twitter went crazy when they passed on him multiple times.
Glad we have the receipts for projecting the 2022 QB class (and hope it will help people trust the analysis of the 2023 crop)
I didn’t know that Willis backed up Bo Nix at Auburn until Sunday night.
That might explain a lot.
What if we’re talking about Mazi Smith? Shorter arms aside, he’s the next best IDL to Carter and a fairly different kind of DT than Carter. Smith may not be quite a game wrecker, but he’s a game influencer and I think he’d look pretty nifty anchoring the center of our DL next year.
And while he may not be the same class of prospect as either Robinson or Mayer (both of whom I really like), he’s of a caliber at a position of extreme need.
Picking him at 11 isn’t really settling for the likes of LJ Collier or Darrell Taylor, is it?
FWIW, I think Mayer is my preference at 11 if no QB or DT (including Smith) are available.
Rob – I found your blog in the weeks leading up to this past draft. Just wanted to chime in and say thank you. I can’t believe how much quality content you put out, and it’s a lot of fun to read… especially during a season like this, where we get to realistically dream about a deep playoff run and a high draft pick simultaneously!
Thank you
How would you comp Kincaid to Kelse or Kittle? Have you studied Cameron Latu or Cade Stover (two big program TEs that are draft eligible)? Both have interesting backgrounds i would think make them tough and good blockers.
To be honest if we are talking later rounds I’d say don’t bother. They don’t ‘need’ a tight end. This is about adding a blue chip talent, which Mayer might be.
I am a big fan of Kincaid though
PFF team Week Nine (bad tackling confirmed)
https://i.redd.it/pvnlyijz9sy91.png
PFF Offense
https://imgur.com/ZyBQjEp
Phil Haynes 🙂
Gabe Jackson 🙁
PFF Defense
https://imgur.com/K7ES23Z
Oof PFF has them with 11 missed tackles. Diggs tackling score yikes.
We could have dominated that game even more if it wasnt for atrocious tackling.
Bad tackling has been a consistent trait against Arizona specifically over the years.
https://seahawksdraftblog.com/curtis-allens-week-eighteen-watch-points-vs-arizona#:~:text=The%20defense%20simply%20must%20not%20miss%20tackles
In fairness to us Conner is a beast to tackle and Murray is very slippery. Not making excuses but I see other teams struggle to tackle the Cardinals as well. That being said it still needs to be better. Nwosu should have sacked Murray that first drive which would have made them punt instead of scoring a TD.
That does seem a bit of an excuse to me
The tackling wasn’t good enough on Sunday
Diggs shouldn’t have done what he did to get that penalty on the AZ scoring drive either. Rookie crap.
Great article. Richardson would be the ideal pick if there. If you select Mayer you either have to carry 4 tight ends or trade one (most likely Fant). If you didnt it would only be an issue for 1 year. If you take WR thats not bad as Lockett wont be around forever but you are kind of giving up on Eskridge (Tate really took off in year 3). Like you said, Robinson is a stud but only really one guy can be on the field. Will be very interested to see how it plays out. If I was to guess on the three I would probably say they would take Mayer.
I was pretty high on Eskridge coming into the year but it seems like the coaching staff has lost quite a bit of trust in him – he’s just fumbled the bag every chance hes gotten. Though with all the young WRs on our roster I think you’d be fine adding a guy you like who slips to a later round (like we did with our 7th rounders last year). Agree on Mayer – I dont mind adding him to the fold if you are going to commit to your TEs. Agree Fant becomes expendable, and though he has the athletic traits you want his timing/excecution/etc just seems to be a bit worse than his peers
First round and top 15 picks are where you can get the super-athletes. If you dont like and of those players as prospects or fit or whatever I have no problem with a trade back. Give yourself the resources to get aggressive on days two and three.
Gut instinct is that Seattle will be very intrigued by Tyree Wilson if he’s big enough to play every down as a 3-4 DE. He looks like their kind of guy physically.
You might be right. I just wish he played every game like he did vs NC State.
And I think he’s more of an EDGE than a 3-4 DE.
That is my concern as well. 275 isnt big enough to play DE in a 3-4. He would need to be 290 plus.
hi Rob
there was speculation in 2019 JS was disappointed missing on SS Johnathan Abram…
he just got released curious if Seahawks would be a good fit even for depth?
Well he’s just been released so who knows how they view him now, after his time in Las Vegas
But I doubt anyone is going to have a negative opinion if they take a look at him
Great read as always Rob, thanks for sharing your insight.
I really like the idea of Mayer especially if his combine numbers are good. We would have a lot of depth at TE. Would Fant or Parkinson have any value in trade for some draft stock? Fant for a 4th maybe? I know, hard to speculate.
If Mayer essentially is the 3rd receiver & a good blocker to boot, that creates additional pressure on the defense in that they still have to respect the running game. Our ’12 personnel’ package would be potentially the best in the league.
Seattle has carried 4 TEs on the roster in the recent past.
When we’re running 3-TE sets with success, I see no issue with drafting Mayer and keeping the other 3 on the roster.
Not saying this is realistic, just pondering trade possibilities with the pick.
Seattle trades #11(ish) pick to the now Brady-less/rebuilding/hopeless Buccaneers for Vita Vea.
I love Vita Vea
But we’ve been here and done that. He’s 28 in February. Not sure they can afford his salary.
You have sold me on tight end. We do only have those guys contracted for one year and will need to extend or draft someone next year then. I’d rather keep our 13 personnel a strength which is one of the best aspects of our current offense. We could probably trade down even and grab an additional 2nd rounder or so while still get Michael Mayer.
I’m not sold on Myles Murphy either. I do think he will be a solid contributor though but his ceiling to me is cliff Avril, a quality player but not a hall of famer by any means and will need a year or two to develop. With a top ten pick I want a player with hall of fame ceiling which quinton Johnson screams out between his 6’4 4.40 size and his physicality with the ball in his hands. He is in a pass friendly offense but his qb just dinks and dunks, he can’t really push the ball down the field with any consistency similar to what aj brown an dk metcalf dealt with in college.
I think Seahawks will have Nolan smith high on their board in round 2. I know you don’t but he is an elite character guy with elite edge setting ability who needs to learn some more pass rush moves. He was the #1 recruit in highschool and if in the combine with be a sparq superstar. To me he is a perfect olb to develop behind uchenna for a season so we don’t have to extend him to a monster contract and he will be available in round 2 due to injury where before he may have gone in the back half of round 1. Again rob I know you don’t like him but trevaun walker was initially a late round 1 projection and after the combine went #1 overall , Nolan smith would of went round 1 somewhere.
I will say I’m not trying to sell anyone on a tight end early
Rather I’m just reviewing what the options actually are in this draft
You will see plenty of people say ‘go and get X position’ without actually studying if that position is available
You might be right about Nolan Smith on day two — but I do think he will be a day two type. I hope he does test. He’s a 141.18 SPARQ scorer who ran a 4.15 short shuttle and jumped a 40 inch vertical
He most likely won’t test due to his torn bicep but maybe do a pro day. This is one of those situations where a guy not testing might benefit the Seahawks. I think one of my ideal draft day scenarios now would be say broncos give us #9 overall and then we trade down to 14-17 range grab a 2nd rounder and use both those picks on Michael Mayer followed by Nolan smith. So many options this year.
I still have hope with the broncos brutal schedule that we can end up with a higher pick to trade down for future firsts like Miami did with the 49ers. Then we could have the extra excitement for anticipation of the draft for years to come. A man can dream
I think it’s wishful thinking to imagine a scenario where going from #9 to #14 will get you a second rounder
Nolan Smith, currently, is a better athlete than player. That’s a bit of an issue.
As far as Nolan smith goes that’s totally fine. Top picks in round one are traditionally elite athletes plus elite production. If Nolan smith had elite stats plus his athleticism he would be a top ten pick. That’s the reason why you are taking him in the second round and why he is available. Round 2 are those guys , it’s why dk metcalf was available in round 2 , he was an elite athlete with a limited route running tree and not the best stats. Those are the guys you take and develop
Sure but he still needs to play better
Metcalf — I’d hardly blame him for Ole Miss being a hot mess on offense pre-Kiffin
Great article, lots of names to keep track of before the Senior Bowl and Combine.
Rob I’m curious how you graded Nwosu while at USC, and this year do you see another OLB, DE with traits similar to his?
I said in m my post above but Nolan smith will be a great round 2 olb to add
I didn’t spend too much time on him because he always felt like more of a 3-4 type and not someone typically who Seattle would go for. Had long arms, always knew he was a former safety so had some movement ability. Had him in the early third range and he went late second.
Tyrus Wheat is thicker than Nwosu but they are somewhat similar.
Great stuff as always Rob.
Not wishful thinking but, I can’t help feeling that the wheels have totally fallen off the wagon for Denver.
A loss to the titans this weekend and I think Hackett will be gone.
The rest of their schedule is pretty tough.
Higher than 11 I reckon.
“Let’s Hide”
Well, people were saying that pre-Jacksonville in London
And Denver won that game
Rob,
so it seems from your article, which as everyone has said its top quality, that the rest of the available QB’s in 2023draft are too your liking and that you wouldn’t draft anyone else, but i am curious as to how you see the rest of the QB’S who will be in this draft and where they will fall and would you take on any of them sitting behind Geno, learning and then be our future QB.
i don’t think Seattle should force this draft, let it play itself out and see who’s available and get BPA, 3rd WR, Defensive lineman etc. who would you target with both of Seattle’s 2nd rd picks. enjoy Germany and GO HAWKS!
When I publish my horizontal board, that will detail where I have the various QB’s. It’ll be out soon
Just saw on NFL Fantasy Live that Mike Evans of the Buccaneers is leading the NFL in targets over the last three weeks. My gut reaction is to sic Woolen on him every single play, but it’s never that simple. Brady will be putting everyone in motion to get our tells. Apparently, he’s taken a shine to Cade Otton. He caught the game-winning touchdown against the Rams as time ran out.
But the Buccaneers are the worst rushing team in the league. Stack the box?
Richardson maybe as a projection
But what would it cost to trade up to get Levis ?
In a year we’ve got 2 picks, I get the feeling we are going to need to reach if we want to fill needs
Everything
Heck to the No on that
Maybe a trade for Richardson. I would love a DT or a DE, but totally agree on drafting a high upside developmental QB.
A trade up to pick 4 to 12 is not as expensive as a trade to 1-3. Best case scenario is a Mahomes (meaning trading up to pick #10) for a “nominal” sum.
So, QB Calem Williams (2024 dfraft) ? It is a bit obvious that we will not be able to get some of the ones that will be available in the next draft
Well, do you want or expect the Seahawks to be picking in the top three in 2024???
We will have to do something, Geno is not a long-term Qb
Well we all didn’t think he was a short term answer a few weeks ago, yet here we are.
Rooting to be the worst team in football next season isn’t much of a plan either
Geno is younger than RW and most people going into last off season had no issue with RW being the QB for the next 4-5 years. Why can’t Geno be the QB that long? He’s got a lot less mileage on his body. There have been enough QB’s to have a later in their career revival that it can’t be ruled out. Imo it’s the best option if they can make the finances work.
With the talk of needing a WR3 why not draft a WR1-2 type and slide Lockett to the 3rd spot?
Geno actually has the chance to be the QB for the next 3-4 years if he continues on like he is now. Look above at CHA’s post about extending him for that period of time. If Geno continues to play like he is why would we want to move on? We still need a QBOTF but Geno is do pretty darned good right now and has shown no reason to doubt he can’t continue.
It’s worth considering “deferring action” as a plan here, being open to uncertainty all along the spectrum. Maybe Geno has a Rich Gannon run in him, maybe he turns out to be a one-year wonder.
The situations aren’t 1:1 identical but I think of what the Eagles have done recently while their QB situation was a question mark. Philadelphia drafted Jalen Hurts in 2020 and he took over for Wentz during the year, but the organization manifestly was not certain whether they had The Guy. They acted to create space for that possibility (i.e., let him start games) while preserving flexibility to move off him by transferring draft assets into future classes so that they’d have heavy concentrations of draft stock.
In 2021 they traded down from 1.06 to 1.12 and banked a ’22 first round pick, giving them two in that class … then they ended up with a third ’22 first-rounder thanks to the Wentz trade.
In ’22 they essentially traded one of their three mid-round firsts for the Saints’ ’23 first — plus a second and a third as the “interest” payment for their patience — in a deal that looks fantastic for them.
Beyond just harvesting the added draft capital from these trades, it gave them optionality year over year to make a big move for a QB if Hurts flamed out. They’re trending towards a bonanza outcome here but if Hurts had not taken that next step they’d be sitting in great position to attack QB in the ’23 draft.
The Seahawks might consider a similar perspective over the next couple of years, and having a coach and GM with lifetime tenure should carry the advantage of being able to take the longest view in the room. Especially if this class doesn’t look too inspiring in general, kicking the Broncos’ pick into 2024 (with “interest”) could give Seattle flexibility to see a larger sample from Geno while also retaining the capacity to hit QB in a future draft, without overcommitting to either path.
Can someone confirm the 2023 cap savings if we cut Diggs and Adams?
Will the combination be net positive (dead cap, etc)?
Seems like there are some solid safeties in this draft and on the street.
If you cut Diggs you save $9.9m but take on an $8.2m dead money hit
If you designate Diggs as a post-June 1st cut, which is what they did with Carlos Dunlap this year, you save $14m and can split the dead money between 2023 and 2024 ($4.1m each year).
Cutting Jamal Adams outright is impossible. If you cut him at the end of the season it will cost you $21.3m.
If you designate him as a post-June 1st cut you save $11m but would take on a $7.1m dead hit in 2023 and a whopping $14.2m dead hit in 2024.
You can designate two players per year as a post-June 1st cut.
So cutting Diggs is manageable, Adams less so. But neither impossible.
The problem is cutting Adams a year later in 2024 isn’t that much less painful. It’d still cost a fortune ($14.2m in dead cap to cut outright or $7.1m in 2023 and $7.1m in 2024 as a June 1st cut).
Personally I’d be happy to draw a line and move on. You’d create about $20m but eat $11m in dead money in 2023 and $18.2m in 2024. But this is a sunk cost now. You’ve got to move on for me and get younger and cheaper at safety.
Mainly because the idea of paying Diggs & Adams $36m next year is obscene.
Cutting Adams probably building some strength seeing how the defense is coming together right now and youth movement. He’s not on the field. Whatever leadership he assumed has been vacated and filled by new voices. It’d be an insult to this group for him to step on the field again in a Hawks jersey making what he makes.
I think Diggs is writing his own ticket out of here post June 1, and Adams is safe, I doubt pc is going to give up on him.
I think you’re both right about Adams. Wont be able to keep up with the speed of the young players, but Pete won’t cut him.
But at some point if he’s a liability out their and the guy behind him can do it better, you have to make the right call.
I just can’t help but think of the of the worst case scenario (IMO): They release Diggs and draft a good safety who plays well and gels with the other young defensive backs. Adams is a liability giving up big plays, only to turn to the young guys and start barking at them. His hollow swagger and arrogant attitude would be a serious distraction.
This is how I see it playing out. I TRULY hope I’m wrong.
He’d have to be healthy for that to happen. Dude gets injured looking in the mirror.
I miss the old Pete, where he wouldn’t hesitate to cut someone at the drop of a dime. That was usually for not buying into the program, and I doubt Adams has that problem
Yeah, I’m trending towards ripping off the bandaid. Sounds like Diggs is no longer the leader that he was and that injury is lingering too long (TBD). And Adams is just taking up space.
Isn’t Neal on a one year deal? He might be expensive too, ugh.
Love the idea of this in 2023:
FS: Christopher Smith, Joey Blount
SS: Ryan Neal, JL Skinner
Maybe pick up Abraham Camara too… if he drops late into day three.
What happens if Adams can’t pass a physical next year? Could there be an injury settlement and release?
Yes but even so there is no real benefit.
A $2.56m guarantee on salary kicks in on Feb 4. It’s guaranteed for injury so the Seahawks will owe it to him.
The rest of the dead cap is the same as it would be if they just cut him, injury or no injury.
There is some inside baseball with a veteran injury benefit but it doesn’t materially affect the total severance package.
cha,
Considering the cost to cut Adams, what could the team do that would make you feel the juice is worth the squeeze?
I walked through the options here:
https://seahawksdraftblog.com/a-practical-look-at-the-2023-salary-cap-for-the-seahawks#:~:text=We%20need%20to%20talk%20about%20Jamal%20Adams
I cannot see a way the Seahawks let his contract as it is continue. I ran through the nightmare scenario: The seahawks do nothing, Adams gets hurt again, and now they’re on the hook for $32million.
I’d say the most likely option is they approach him and try to renegotiate his salary down.
I have no issue with the June 1 cut. The dead cap isn’t pretty but they pick up $8.42m in 2023 and $9.39m in 2024. Those two chunks can be put towards a Geno contract or utilized on a pass rusher or two.
Even tho the cap hit remains the same, it would still be a benefit to get rid of him via injury settlement and would save face for Pete and for him. Please let it happen.
The difference in Dead Money and Cap Savings isn’t really enough to find a decent enough replacement through Free Agency. The draft however, if they can get a player who shows enough in pre season and early games next season, Jamal Adams could definitely be a pre November deadline trade candidate.
I’d be playing Adams in all pre season games next year, to prove his fitness, setting up his stock for a possible trade, possibly pre season?
I don’t see anyone trading for Adams next year. His salary will deter that thinking. We are stuck with him, until we aren’t.
Will he even be recovered enough to practice? Would he even make it through training camp without getting hurt again?
Who is giving the Seahawks a draft pick for the right to pay Adams $45m the next three years, coming off three consecutive season-ending injuries?
The Seahawks have massive trouble fielding a good defense the first 4-5 weeks of the season. Why put Adams at the forefront for all of camp and preseason, just so you can trade him and replace him with someone who has a different skillset? They need to be reworking their entire offseason regimen to avoid another slow start, not showcasing a broken player they wouldn’t get much value for.
They’ve been ruthless with contracts in the past and I hope they are again
They’ve given this a go, tried to make this awful trade work
It hasn’t and it’s time to cut their losses. I really hope they’re prepared to do it
The great irony in all of this is when the Eagles or Rams sign or extend a really big player and somehow manage to fit him into their cap by having a low first-year hit, we all rightly ask ‘why can’t the Seahawks do something like that?’
Well, they did. With both the Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams extensions, they had low first years and pushed more expense into their later years. And now they’re paying the price for it.
Rob, what do you think it would cost to move up in the draft to grab one of the QBs? Both our 1sts or would we need to throw in one of our 2nd round picks as well? I would just hate to miss out on one this year.
It would cost a lot
Remember it cost the Niners two additional firsts to move up
Rob,
You’ve compared Richardson’s talents to Josh Allen’s. That seems fair and I trust the research you’ve put in.
In 2018, the Bills traded their first pick (12th) and two seconds for the Buc’s (7th) to nab Allen. Thoughts on the likelihood of a similar trade for Richardson.
Meant to be a question.
I don’t think he’ll last to #7
Unfortunately, I think you’re likely to be right. It’s looking like there will be too many teams with questionable QB situations picking in the top five or six.
Has you’ve highlighted in your piece, the team needs to have a plan to add quality talent where they can and be ready to pounce if one of their QBs drops into striking range.
Part of this debate is also who is selecting in front of you. Alot of the teams in front of that pick wont need a QB. Cant really predict whether teams will move up.
Hi Rob, have you had the chance to take a look at Durell Nchami from Maryland? I’ve only found 2 games online but even with such a small sample size he looks like one of the best edges in this class to my eyes. Good build with long arms, smart in his engagements and leverage which shows most in the run D. Has some sudenness in him while also showing some ability to turn the corner. He can even drop into coverage. One thing I couldn’t get is why he was sporadically off the field, having limited snaps. Apparently he came back from a season ending shoulder injury and had another season ending knee injury in his freshman year. A red flag for sure but I think he does stand out on the field
I haven’t watched him, sorry
This season is going well enough now that blowing games against the crappy Falcons and Saints is becoming quite irritating
I agree but is there an argument to be made that those losses are what finally pursuaded Pete to stop pumping the brakes & let the OC & DC coaches off the leash? (sorry about the hideously mixed metaphors there).
I suspect the opposite happened. That the atrocious defense early in the season prompted PC to insert himself on that side of the ball.
My amateur eyes watched the “new” defensive alignments put guys back in a position to attack a single gap instead of read-and-reacting to multiple gaps.
Yup. Feeling it to. That said, there’s no Rain City Redemption without the rain first. It’s like we’re watching a phenix rise from what was a dumpster fire.
we were only hoping they would not win too many games considering their play back then. those losses coupled Detroit game is what spurred changes and results today.
Rob,
Looking forward to the horizontal board. Appreciate the work and perspective. Adds valuable context to the discussion.
Also looking forward to the mocks when the mock draft season starts. Lots of plausible scenarios to explore.
Rob, my worry is that they see drew lock as the future at QB. How highly do you think they rate him and will they keep him around next year?
I don’t know 🤷♂️
But it’s not something to worry about
Seahawks All Access: Week 9 at Cardinals
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gKmitXdwswU&t=6s
Great article again Rob! I’m not sure if we can have another A++ draft again in 2023 like this year, but if we come anywhere close, I’ll be happy. We have 3 rookies having possible pro bowl seasons in Walker, Lucas and Woolen, and several others are playing very good.
Brian Baldinger
https://twitter.com/BaldyNFL/status/1590391771158446082?s=20&t=YdTs7CtkPsukXIBjumu7Nw
Here’s a fun Baldy’s Breakdown in case anyone wants to friq on Tariq
I really like the nickname “The Shadow.” Seems right! Good one Baldy.
Cliff Avril on Seahawks D:
“Traditionally, Avril said, defensive linemen in a 3-4 scheme all look like Al Woods, who weighs roughly 330 pounds. Their role is to be big and stout, and not be moved by the offensive line.
But Al Woods is the only one (on the Seahawks) that looks like that,” Avril said. “Poona Ford is a guy that gets off the ball and he penetrates. You look at (Shelby) Harris, you look at (Quinton) Jefferson, all those guys are guys that get off the rock and go. They wouldn’t be able to last the whole season, honestly, if you had them just standing up guards and finishing up tackles all game long. And that’s been a difference maker in the last few weeks is they’re allowing their playmakers to do what makes them the best type of player they can be, which is attack.”
So they switched the scheme but did not get the right personnel..how could they add Shelby and Quinton in the off-season while switching scheme. Naturally defense sucked for 5 games until they made an adjustment.
Well, to be fair I’ve always thought a classic 3-4 front had a big nose tackle like Al Woods and then two defensive ends who are in the 290lbs range.
Harris is 290lbs, Jefferson is 291lb.
Ford is ill-fitting in this scheme, he looks like an orthodox 4-3 defensive tackle. But the rest? I wouldn’t say they didn’t get the right kind of personnel. After all, Harris played and started for Vic Fangio.
Baltimore, a classic 3-4 team, have 293lbs Justin Madubuike at DE. The Broncos have been using 291lbs Deshawn Williams and 281lbs Dre’Mont Jones. Wink Martindale is using 287lbs Jihad Ward at DE.
The Seahawks need some long term features within this defensive front though. They need difference makers first and foremost but they could use some foundational parts too. In the last draft they addressed offensive tackle emphatically. They need to do the same with the DL in 2023.
This is where I stopped investing in Avril’s words.
There’s maybe 10 guys in the NFL who look like Al Woods.
Kind of makes me wish they’d still had their R1 pick this year to be able to plonk Jordan Davis next to Al Woods…
Cliff is both right and wrong here. The Shelby one is weird since he’s big and has played with Fangio a lot, but its less height & weight, and more body type and playstyle. But he is thinking of a 3-4 10 years ago. Those 3-4 DEs are a bit rounder and stouter and are not penetrators but hold the line guys. Good thing is those are pretty easy to find. disruptors are whats hard to find.
Seahawks and Seahawks-adjacent Twitter is fun today.
Shade thrown and returned on a wristband. Then there’s the secondary “why is everyone still talking about Pete and Russell?” feedbackers generating just as much noise as the original people.
Some receipt-checking on the “OMG WHY DID THEY DRAFT A RB WHEN MALIK WILLIS WAS SITTING RIGHT THERE” crowd.
And another Gregg Bell trifecta: 1-Tweets something stupid, 2-Gets corrected, 3-Reacts badly, tries to posit himself as the only stable human being on Twitter.
“That’s why I’m here and you’re not”
He will never shake that tweet off
Redrafts are silly, stupid and never, ever to be taken seriously.
That said, here’s a 2022 redraft!
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-redrafting-2022-nfl-draft-sauce-gardner-ikem-ekwonu
If you don’t feel like clicking,
#6 Charles Cross CAR
#15 Tariq Woolen HOU
#19 Abe Lucas NO
#30 Ken Walker KC
That’s right. 4 first round picks
Seahawks take Kayvon Thibodeaux at #9
Here is a good representation of the typical media take on the 2023 QB draft:
https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2022/11/9/23448551/2023-quarterback-draft-class-breakdown-bryce-young-cj-stroud-will-levis
A Danny Kelly/Rob Staton podcast topic?
Hi Rob,
Great article as always. Superb anaylsis of the current status of the Seahawks draft situation and the prospects available, but how come no mention of the Seahawks trading up/down to have the draft talent align better with their draft needs?
I mean what if they could trade #11 and 2 2nds to move up and get Will Anderson? Or what if they could drop down from #11 to the end of the 1st and add a 2024 1st? In either situation it would seem that the player(s) they could draft would be better fits, more talented, and/or give them many more options to acquire talent down the line.
Wouldn’t you agree…?
I don’t like these ideas really
You have a great chance to build on 2022 with a bunch of picks. Use them, just use them well. Like you did this year
Really surprised to hear you say this Rob. Sounds like you’re saying not to trade at all – Am I hearing you right? I mean someone like Will Anderson could be a game wrecker. Considering even you have questioned the (lack of) top end talent that will be available around #10 or so, wouldn’t it be better to trade up for someone who has the raw talent to justify a top-10 pick?
What’s funny is that Schnieder has been pretty terrible about using draft picks to trade for players…But he’s been very good making trades during the the draft to move around and get extra picks and to move up and get players like Lockett and Metcalf. I wouldn’t have an issue with him doing that as needed in 2023 depending on who is available at the Broncos pick.
I’m not making any firm declarations at this early stage. It’s too soon for that.
But I do think this team would benefit from another draft like 2022, rather than going all in for one player.
But there’s still so much to determine. They don’t have a QB signed for next year
I hear you. We’ll see how things go. I’m just saying that better to always set yourself up to draft best player available, and sometimes the board doesn’t fall that way. Rumor has it that they were close to trading down from #9, but the other team backed out. If they dropped to #12, picked up a 4th rounder, and still got Cross, my point is something like that would be the best of both worlds.
Paris Johnson, Jr would be my first pick. Gabe Jackson is about down. Let him go as a cap casualty and collect a comp pick. Johnson, could step in as the best LG since Steve Hutchinson while Damien Lewis moves back to RG.
You can’t take a tackle with your top pick to ‘try’ and upgrade at right guard
That Kentucky offensive line is absolutely dreadful!
Yup. Has been all year.
And the defense is just as bad.
And to the illustrate the point…
— The last defensive drive
— The last offensive drive
Hopeless defense. Hopeless O-line.