It’s bye week and I’m toying with doing a full two-round mock. I think I might save that for next week but wanted to do a Seahawks projection today that I believe makes some sense.
I’m going to do the first three rounds. Here are the picks:
#7, #22, #43, #54, #86
In this scenario, let’s assume Geno Smith (and potentially Drew Lock) are kept. I also think there’s a chance four quarterbacks will go in the top-six, with Jalen Carter and Will Anderson making up the initial sextuple.
The focus on this mock is going to be defense. Or, more specifically, disruption.
The Seahawks have found a way in recent games to create pressure and gather some sacks. I do think, however, they are still lacking a player who — as Chris Simms would say — ‘F’s plays up’. That was clear against Tampa Bay. If they can add a couple of those, it could really take this team to a new level.
In the 2022 draft the Seahawks built a foundation with their bookend tackles. Can they do something similar here with an injection of talent on the defensive line?
Pick #7 — Tyree Wilson (DE, Texas Tech)
There are going to be D-line options for the Seahawks here. If, somehow, Jalen Carter was available — that would be a no-brainer pick based on what he’s shown over the last fortnight. He is proving to be a true game-wrecker from the interior. I suspect, however, he will be a top-four lock and could even end up being the #1 overall pick if he continues to play at such a high level.
Players like Myles Murphy and Bryan Bresee will be touted for this range and you can make an argument for them based on their size and athletic profile. However, I think Murphy’s a pussycat against the run and Bresee simply hasn’t been able to find his best form.
Therefore, I’m going with Wilson from Texas Tech.
He isn’t a flawless prospect either. He performed superbly against NC State but there are other games where he leaves you wanting more.
However, he has rare qualities you can mould into a top NFL prospect. Wilson has nearly 36-inch arms at 6-6, 275lbs. That length is vital because so often on tape you see him strong-arm offensive tackles by extending to keep his frame clean and from there he controls the block. Time and time again there’s a large area of space between Wilson and the tackle and it sets everything up — all of his moves, the ability to duck inside, he can rip through. He knows how to use his length and it’s a major weapon.
Wilson also has the necessary quickness to complement his length and power.
One other thing he does really well is when he does make contact with a blocker and can’t disengage or swim/rip — he’ll often just drive through the lineman, forcing him back into the pocket. Even when he’s not just flat out beating his block, he’s being disruptive and disturbing the QB. There are so many snaps on tape where Wilson’s blocker is on skates.
Because of his size and power it’s possible he can be used in a variety of ways. You can imagine him playing early downs in a three man-front. He also has the length and athleticism to play as an EDGE.
Wilson’s a very disruptive player with the ability to collect around 10 sacks a year, set an edge against the run, move around the line to attack from different angles and deliver something different to Seattle’s front seven.
Pick #22 — Calijah Kancey (DT, Pittsburgh)
I’m perhaps going against my better judgement here because the idea of Seattle drafting a 6-0, 280lbs defensive lineman who will have sub-33-inch arms would usually be fanciful. Yet this mock is about adding disruption to the defense and no player in college football disrupts more than Kancey. In fact, he’s arguably the most disruptive player to enter the league since Quinnen Williams.
I spoke about him a lot when I published my first horizontal board so go and check that out. He’s a physical freak of nature who will run in the 4.6’s and likely deliver outstanding agility testing and show off explosive traits. His first-step quickness is elite. It’s a very easy comparison to make that he has the body and at times the tape of fellow Pitt Panther Aaron Donald. While he won’t be Donald, I’m struggling to find reasons to steer clear of mentioning their names together. They are so alike.
See for yourself. What do you see?
I’d be willing to take a chance on what Kancey does well — the game-wrecking qualities, the pass rush and the dynamism. There’s always a chance a player with this frame just gets overwhelmed at the next level and it’s possible he can become a liability if the quickness isn’t as effective and if he can’t keep his frame clean. Like Donald, he’ll need to be the most violent, aggressive player on the field. I do think we see a bit of that on tape, however.
The Seahawks haven’t had a dynamic interior rusher in the Carroll era. I’d be willing to try and hit a home-run here. He has rare qualities.
If you put Wilson and Kancey in Seattle’s D-line rotation we could be talking about an incredibly forceful, impactful, disruptive unit. You’d see more sacks and TFL’s and pressure. You’d be adding players with unique traits. I think it’d be a really exciting first round double.
Pick #43 — Jonathan Mingo (WR, Ole Miss)
I’m really enamoured by the idea of drafting a ‘big slot’. I just think it would add another dimension to the offense. I’m also a big believer in the value of a top level third receiver and often the teams who perform well in the playoffs are the ones able to ask questions of opponents with an arsenal that carriers a strong WR3.
This is also about value. This Seahawks found Ken Walker sitting waiting for them early in round two. In 2023 it could be that a really talented receiver is available in the same range. If Mingo or Cedric Tillman in particular were available at #43 — it would be a brilliant opportunity for the Seahawks to just get better.
They’re not alone though. We could also see a situation where Zay Flowers, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jordan Addison, Bryce Ford-Wheaton and Josh Downs are available. The value at receiver in the second frame could be superb.
Mingo is 6-2 and 225lbs but runs with a gliding quality. His routes are so smooth. He’s had 141 snaps in the slot this year (compared to 443 out wide) so he’s been mixed around by Lane Kiffin to create mismatch opportunities. He has soft hands.
I just love the idea of trying to find ways to get him matched up on a linebacker or safety and run across the middle, wheel to the outside, get deep down the seam. How do you cover that while also needing to be wary of D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and the tight ends?
You can see what I’m talking about in his record-setting game against Vanderbilt:
Jonathan Mingo vs. Vandy:
🔵 9 Rec
🔴 247 Rec Yds
🔵 2 Rec TDThe most receiving yards in a game in Ole Miss history ❗️ pic.twitter.com/zqL8nPmf80
— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) October 9, 2022
Mingo is immensely talented and athletic and you’d have another X-factor receiver on your offense, under contract for four years.
Pick #54 — J.L. Skinner (S, Boise State)
I think a perfect storm is coming at the safety position. Quandre Diggs (61.4 PFF grade) isn’t playing anywhere near well enough to justify an $18m cap hit in 2023. I don’t know how you can pay that — especially when you’ll need to create money to retain Geno Smith.
Not only are Diggs’ grades poor — he isn’t making any plays. He had five interceptions in each of the last two seasons and three interceptions in five games in 2019. This year? Zero interceptions in ten games. He has become a completely ineffective player. There’s absolutely no way they can give him $18m next year and his contract has a reasonable out if they make him a post-June 1st cut.
On top of that, they need to make a call on Jamal Adams. His contract has become an albatross and he too is due an $18m cap hit in 2023. They have to speak to him about his deal. They can’t just keep hoping this trade and contract is going to work out.
Meanwhile, Ryan Neal has an 80.4 PFF grade and is a must keep. So I think one way or another — some players need to go, some kept and at least one added.
Meanwhile, there are a collection of safeties in the draft that are attractive — making the decision even easier. Alabama’s Brian Branch could be a first round option. I really like Christopher Smith and Ji’Ayir Brown. I have them selecting J.L. Skinner here.
We know the Seahawks love a safety who delivers big hits. It’s not just Kam Chancellor. Marquise Blair was a big-time hitter at Utah. Skinner is big, fast and physical and knows how to lay the boom:
He’s a Seahawk. He might not ultimately end up in Seattle but he’s a Seahawk.
Skinner is what they’ve been looking for since Chancellor departed. Even if Jamal Adams stays — he can play a hybrid blitzing role. Put Neal at free safety (81.2 coverage grade) and put Skinner at strong safety. Bring the fear-factor back to the defense. Make opponents second-guess those crossing routes and dump-offs.
He’s long and lean with good quickness and reaction skills too so while his calling card is run defense and hitting — he’s not a slouch in coverage.
Pick #86 — Kenny McIntosh (RB, Georgia)
It might be possible for the Seahawks to bring back Rashaad Penny on a team-friendly deal after his latest injury. As such, this might not be a necessary pick and as I’ll note in the next section — there are plenty of other players I’d like to consider.
However — I’ve never seen a player like McIntosh before. We’re talking about a 210lbs runner who levels opponents and runs through contact — so much so that even Kirby Smith is telling journalists he thinks McIntosh is a “bad MF-er”.
Brenton Cox is going to have to pay for this ride into the end zone by Kenny McIntosh #GoDawgs
— 704 Dawg ➐ (@FSFRecruits) October 29, 2022
On top of that — his footwork and agility to work through traffic, make people miss, dodge and weave through tackles and get the absolute most juice out of every run is pretty special.
Kenny McIntosh pic.twitter.com/lrWPX6lelh
— The Film Guy Fam (@TheFilmGuyFam) November 8, 2022
Yet what makes him so special is despite the size, the violence and the great feet that you’d usually associate with a really good Georgia running back — McIntosh is also an exceptional receiver out of the backfield and a decent pass-protector. He runs routes with a crispness and efficiency you usually see from receivers. He’s a major weapon in the passing game and on third downs. He has 564 receiving yards in the last two seasons out of the backfield for a run-heavy offense.
Kenny McIntosh sells the wheel route & cuts inside the defender for a 49 yard reception.. one of the best receiving RBs in the 2023 draft pic.twitter.com/IspKBgdh26
— RanDynasty (@ran_dynasty) November 5, 2022
KENNY MCINTOSH ONE-HANDED 😳 pic.twitter.com/CL1mhCt0iT
— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) November 6, 2021
McIntosh would be the perfect long-term complement to Ken Walker as a relief runner but also a third down dynamo. There’s so much to like here. I suspect if the Seahawks don’t draft him the LA Rams will.
Other names I considered
I seriously considered Oregon cornerback Trikweze Bridges at #86 because his long, lean frame and remarkable arm-length just screams Seahawks. It’d almost be disappointing if he doesn’t land in Seattle.
I don’t think the Seahawks are that focused on the linebacker position. Cody Barton is taking 70% of the defensive snaps but there have been games where he’s taken 30-40% this season. I don’t think it’s a big priority to spend a high pick on that position. If they do, however, I suspect Georgia’s Nolan Smith in round two or Auburn’s Owen Pappoe in rounds 3-4 will be attractive options given their obscene testing profiles (the Seahawks love fantastic athletes at linebacker).
I was really drawn to Alabama’s Byron Young in round two. I just think he’d be an ideal fit for the Seahawks as a 3-4 defensive end who can play a ton of snaps, deliver consistent results and provide disruptive production. He’s better than a lot of people realise.
I’m not sure we’ll see the Seahawks go big on the interior O-line if they’re following the Rams’ way of doing things. However — Kansas State’s Cooper Beebe and TCU’s Steve Avila are massive, physical, tone-setting blockers with surprising mobility. I’m a huge fan of both players and would happily consider either in round three. I also like a lot of the centers available in this draft but again — I’m not sure they’re going to take a big, mauling center — which is typically what’s available in this draft.
If you missed it earlier, Jacson Bevans and I were invited onto the Pedestrian Podcast this week for a bye-week mega-pod discussing all things Seahawks.
Check it out:
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Great thoughts Rob. Sign me up for all those picks.
I think looking for that one big factor guy might be too hard while the Seahawks also have questions about quarterback and limited cap space.
To borrow from Moneyball like Adam did, they can ‘recreate it in the aggregate’ by just having waves and waves of very good defensive linemen, like the LOB teams did.
Drafting Wilson and Kancey would put them at 10 LB/DL under contract for 2023 and maybe 11 if/when they bring Myles Adams back as an ERFA.
Alton Robinson
Uchenna Nwosu
Darrell Taylor
Boye Mafe
Tyree Wilson
Quinton Jefferson
Al Woods
Bryan Mone
Shelby Harris
Calijah Kancey
Myles Adams
I can move forward nicely with that as a Hawks front.
Kancey I think could serve as a pure obvious-passing-downs option as a rookie if the team can work him in. I can see him working with Harris and Jefferson.
Not to mention, of this group, only Mafe and Mone are under contract for 2024. May be hard to retain a few of these names so adding contracted depth through the draft seems prudent.
Taylor will be under team control in 2024.
I was just going off OTC- suspect you’re accounting for a non-tolled injury year?
Yes. He’ll be an RFA
You forgot Tyreke Smith.
You’re right I did.
You forgot Tyreke Smith. He makes 5 outside linebackers before you draft Wilson
Thanks for this analysis, Rob. Did you consider Mazi Smith with one of these earlier picks? PFF thinks he’ll be available fairly late – 130s, which doesn’t jive with your rave reviews.
He won’t be there in the 130’s
He’s a top-20 pick
I figured as much. Were you tempted to go interior line? Some notable Center options. We could stand to upgrade from Jackson as well.
I went interior DL at 22
Really excited for the draft can’t wait for April. This is when Hawks is doing good (better than expectation) in bye week leading the NFC west.
I love the mock draft we need good DL with rookie contract so we can have great roster. Watch the game between Bills and Vikings these WR makes huge difference, really like the WR3 pick which can slide in as WR2 or WR1 in next 3 years. Perfect pick as RB who can be 3rd down, still good backup or giving breather to K9 without missing a bit in the drive.
I’m also excited because PC is giving enough hints how current draft has changed the team and what they can achieve in next draft. So happy to see they have not given away draft picks before trade dead line.
Diggs and Adams has to go next year, and selection of 1 or 2 safeties will be ideal. Next 2 years we can carry dead cap for players like Russ, Bobby, Adams and Diggs. Hawks cut Bobby who was heart and soul of the team but they understood and took big step to cut him. Now it is time for Diggs and Adams please do it.
I always chuckle on Rob’s comment “However, I think Murphy’s a pussycat against the run”.
Thank you Rob for another great article, I’m still behind on your latest podcast.
Encouraging thoughts.
These are the positions that I’d love to see them focus on – just as you have:
1. Disruptor in the D-Line
2. WR – needed for now and in the future (Lockett is getting up there)
>I like the Safety idea…but only if one is available that they absolutely love…often good Safeties can be found in the second half of the draft.
*If a great one is available at any of our top 100 picks, I’m down with nabbing: QB, Interior OL, S, ILB
I’d love this draft. The other options I’d love at 22 are Mazi or Morris from Michigan. In fact, I might prefer them to Kancey ONLY because while the ceiling isn’t as high, I think the floors are much higher. That said, I do love Kancey and would be ecstatic with him.
Morris is a very “Calais Campbell” type player, hence may affinity.
I doubt Mazi Smith will last to #22
Mike Morris played very well against Michigan State but I find him too passive to warrant the Calais comp. He needs to bring the heat more often, not just for revenge games
Love that you included JL Skinner. I’ve been watching him for a couple of years now. His size, body, playing style, and violent hits really remind me of Chancellor. He has been DQ’d a few times for targeting, so that would need to be coached out of him. Otherwise, I would love to see him in Seattle.
Ditto. Seattle needs some help at safety and this guy has been fun to watch at Boise State.
Those K. McIntosh videos have me convinced too. Plus his eponym was a Sonic.
Looking forward to the next draft season, and visiting this site 4 times a day. If Seattle hits on picks like they did this year, look out.
Thank you Rob. Appreciate you keeping us entertained during the bye week. Sure would like that draft feom what you’ve written about these players.
For those not fluent in England English, when Rob says “pissed” that means drunk. 😀 🥃
I would be very pleased if Seattle can beef up the DLine in the First Round. We really need Denver to not get things turned around. I hope they do not fire their coach this year. Both Carolina and Indy seemed to play a lot better with interim head coaches.
Something like a Broncos 3 game win streak would just be devastating 😢
Thanks for all of the content. The horizontal, and the written that accompanied it, and now this, are both fantastic. Not surprisingly.
I love the idea of adding to the line of scrimmage. The Munich game with TB spotlighted some glaring weaknesses.
As a casual fan I want the Seahawks to add monsters, the Fletcher Cox/Vea/Hicks/Payne, etc. An overly simplistic viewpoint from me, and easier said then done. Kancey does look, odd (in a similar way to Tyrus Wheat/and Brown from Penn st), in that the size doesn’t seem to match the position, but the results look great.
Skinner looks awesome. Continuing into next year with both Diggs and Adams seems silly, and potentially harmful to the squad in a way that goes beyond just the salary cap. Maybe Diggs is still hurt, maybe Diggs knows his time with the hawks is drawing to a close and he isn’t going as hard, I’m not sure, but from (admittedly) very far away, he just doesn’t ‘look’ like he has it. Skinner is lanky, hits hard, what’s not to like? Joey Blount also has that lanky look, and after watching Josh Jones chop his feet and wait for Julio Jones to run into the end zone, why not play Blount? I am very thankful that the coaching staff were forced into playing as many rookies as they have been this year, because the cynic in me doesn’t assume those players would have made it to the field otherwise.
The Skinner highlights were fun and made me go back and dig out my favorite highlight video ever: Karl Joseph, perfect.
Thanks again
If you are posting here, you are not a casual fan.
Lol!
I was amazed when I looked up Joey Blount and saw his college stats + athletic testing. I am amazed he didnt get drafted. I’d love to get a look at him, he may be another Neal type of undrafted gem. Based on recent trends I expect us to target special team focused late round draft picks + UDFAs at defensive back while rehashing former high draft picks on a second contract.
I mean Joey Blount ran a 4.4 40, 38 inch vert, 9.6 RAS with fine stats and didnt get drafted. Maybe hes just a special teamer idk but keep giving similar guys a chance and eventually you hit with a Ryan Neal. Unless its a potential star at DB I dont really want us to draft one before day 3. Trenches and offensive weapons.
This and your big board are such great informative pieces. Cant thank enough for the time put in.
I love the Wilson pick up top if we stay put. His length is so tantalizing. And he has been productive/disruptive.
There is a long time between now and the draft. There is even a long time between now and when the top 10 order will be set (teams playing each other). But looking at the order as it currently stands, without any trades, I only see one team that is sure fire to grab a QB (Carolina) and only 2 that even need a QB (Carolina, Houston). Houston could gamble and hope one the QBs drops to 9 for their second 1st pick.
Again, that is without trades up for a QB. But if this currently stood, there could be Richardson (if he declares as he should) and Levis as the 2 QBs taken (first and third). Raiders are in desperate need of ANYONE on the O line. But lets just say that ends up being Carter because they are week in the interior dline more than edge, and dont play the defense to really utilize Anderson properly (my opinion, which is probably wrong tho). The eagles at 4 have had a rough time with run defense, but endges are good at getting to passer. Anderson could go here, or here me out, this is where Bijan goes. Eagles want to be balanced and run the ball. they have playmakers on the outside and QB, having Bijan would make them even more dynamic on O. Jacksonville is in need of offensive weapons. Pederson misses his Ertz at TE, so thye go with the most complete TE in Mayer. Chicago is a perfect fit for Anderson. Even though they need Oline help in a bad bad way, they cant pass up the talent of Anderson. Now at 7, you have Stroud and Young still available, do we grab one of them? Trade out? Or still grab Wilson? If we trade out, we could still grab a dynamic passrusher in Ojulari later (my fav value at rushend). But there are also lots of options at Rushend this year later on, and Byron Young has grown on me since you have highlighted him.
Personally, I would trade out in that scenario. If you could mix Bryce youngs fire and grit and charisma with CJ stroud’s natural God given talent and frame, in a heart beat you take him. He likely is 1st overall tho. But individually, both scare me. The talent in the back half of round 1 and round 2 is just so valuable, getting 4 picks + more 3rd or future picks just seems so good. With the Colts and Washington at 15 and 16 or even Atlanta at 12, move back and grab an additional 2nd+, allows you to grab Mazi Smith at that pick, and add another player in that round 2.
Kancey will likely be available at 43, I would rather take Simpson at 22. Hawks need to move Barton to the bench. Simpson and Brooks pairing would be elite. I really like Kancey but IMO he will likely slide due to his measurables. I also really like Mingo but LB is a greater need and Simpson is the best in 2023.
You’d rather take a player at 22 who has done absolutely nothing this season?
Ok
You also seem to have also glossed over the point that they simply aren’t using their second LB very much
I am a little confused by your reply. Simpson has moved inside and is 2nd in the team in tackles, great in coverage and shown he can be moved outside to be an effective pass rusher. He is far an away the most versatile LB in the draft with elite speed for the position.
The reason they don’t use their 2nd LB much is because Cody Barton while a smart player is just not a starting caliber pedigree and it was a big mistake not addressing the position in either FA or the draft last year.
I am not in favor is reaching 10 to 15 slots for Kancey, who as I stated I really like but his measurables are lacking.
1. We’ve seen in Seattle — collecting tackles isn’t any indication of success.
2. Simpson’s coverage grade is 69.0 this season. That is not ‘great’.
3. He has had a rubbish season. He’s gone from a high impact player to a non-factor. His PFF grade of 69.2 is currently 274th for the linebacker position in college. He has 0.5 TFL’s and 0.5 sacks. He only has three PBU’s. Like I said, he’s been a total non-factor.
4. That is not why they don’t use Cody Barton much. It’s because of the scheme. Otherwise they wouldn’t have completely ignored the position in free agency and the draft. They would’ve added competition for Barton.
5. Why is it a reach for Kancey? Because you say so?
PFF has Trenton listed as their #1 LB, big board rank of 28.
Draft Buzz 75% in coverage.
First year moving inside and he is doing exactly what Clemson’s schemes is asking him to do.
Moving to a primary 3/4 Brooks is lacking any help, injuries to the safety position has further hurt the depth.
Kancey is a reach in the first round. Most mocks I have seen are early to mid 2nd, your pick at 22nd is the highest. He is very productive but his measurables just don’t scream first round pick and will likely slide even further after the combine and individual workouts.
Not just an opinion it just is a fact that a short, light, small armed DT’s don’t go in round 1.
That is just Mike Renner’s opinion, not PFF’s. His view is not gospel. He also thinks Tanner McKee is going in the middle of the first round.
What does this even mean?
Are they asking him to make no plays and record a very average PFF grade?
How do you know what Clemson’s scheme is asking him to do?
Notice how you’re already switching from things like ‘he’s been great in coverage’ to ‘he’s just doing the job they ask him to do’.
Again, they didn’t do anything at linebacker this year. No picks. No free agent moves of note. Clearly they didn’t value the position.
‘Most mocks’ talk utter bollocks.
Except, you know, that guy called Aaron Donald.
Rob,
Full-blown man-crush on JL Skinner in 3, 2, 1…and we’re there. Wow.
Given how badly Tampa Bay gashed us on the ground, plus Mone as a healthy scratch in that game….I mean, hard to conclude anything on the basis of just one game, but if teams start to run on the Seahawks with increased success, are either Wilson or Kancey good solutions for shoring up the run D? In your opinion?
They are disrupters for both
But you can find run defenders. We need people who can F plays up
Really enjoyed this mock and like the picks.
Would love to see Levis, Richardson or Carter as the top pick ideally but if not then Wilson makes a ton of sense.
Wilson reminds me a little of former Cowboys DE David Irving without the baggage obviously and Wilson looks a little more explosive.
A player id like to take a chance on is Jalen Moreno-Cropper, WR from Fresno State. Watched a lot of fresno state tape when deboer came to the huskies. He has that shifty quickness we dont really have now, maybe a young tyler lockett.
No more Oregon cornerbacks to the Seahawks.
They have all been underwhelming.
Which Oregon cornerbacks have they actually drafted?
The only one I can think of is Walter Thurmond and he was fine for a fourth rounder
Ugo Amadi was a safety they converted
I’ve just looked and the only other Oregon DB they’ve ever drafted was Daryl Reed in 1990 — in the 11th round
Man, just when I get buried at work you turn on the article pipeline
I just finished reading your horizontal board and analysis and was writing a comment on that and then you laid this 3 rounder on us and now I’m in full draftgeek mode!
Actually the horizontal board and 3 round mock are the perfect companion pieces and I’m bouncing back between the them and it’s like the best game of tetris ever, plugging in different prospect combinations.
I’m fully on board with all your selections. The thing I like about Tyree Wilson is he’s a true every down DE. He’s quite effective at maintaining outside contain and rarely (if ever) gets washed out of a play or moved off his spot once he sets his anchor. His wingspan is remarkable, so much so that he’s like a two-gap DE. And as you point out, he can walk his blocker right back to the QB and reach around to make a play.
Kancey is pretty unique. He doesn’t look quite big enough to play 3 downs inside but maybe he can. Regardless, no doubt he can feature in pressure packages. I mean, his play style — full throttle upfield, penetrate and disrupt — that’s what Seattle have used to good effect since righting the ship on defense (Munich game excepted). I’m all in for him with Seattle’s native R1 pick.
But I could also see switching the order of DE and WR picks to go with a Mayer or Johnson early and Byron Young at 43. Young has really grown on me this season, as Anderson has underwhelmed. I really like Young’s game and see him in a similar light as Wilson. Maybe not the same physical gifts but a similar type and caliber of play.
The pick I think I’m most excited about, the one I think is becoming my draft darling, is Kenny MacIntosh. I’ve been a huge Charbonnet fan and if he ends up a Seahawk I’ll be very happy. But there’s something about MacIntosh that’s…unique. After watching him make the Tennessee defense look like fence posts I’m a believer. I don’t think I knew Kirby’s comment about him being a BAMF, and he’s so elusive he often avoids contact, so it’s not like toughness is the feature of his game. But you see it. There’s a little Dameon Pierce to his running. And of course he’s practically a WR in terms of catching ability. I don’t know how he tests, but I see him as the offensive weapon they hoped Percy Harvin would be.
Sign me up!
Oh yeah, JL Skinner is my top S for Seattle. Not the top S in the class, but the most Seahawky
A little surprised that you didn’t mock us drafting Levis in the second round. I’m just messing around, but I find it hard to believe that his stock is not dropping. You can throw out the UT game film, but Vanderbilt was just as bad. Are you still thinking he goes top 5?
I watched the Vanderbilt game and it was nowhere near as bad
I’m just going to keep referring to what I wrote in my horizontal board article. Bit bored of discussing this over and over again.
No worries. I’m obviously very biased. If the Hawks draft him, I will definitely be onboard. Haha
It is crazy watching the difference in get off from the snap between Wilson and Kancey in that film. Wilson’s length and power may be elite but Kancey has elite get off and hand play. Jesus, talk about disruptive.
Wilson is often the last guy off the ball. Not sure why he seems so slow a lot of the time. You can tell he’s got some elite athleticism when he turns it on and accelerates, but god it seems like he’s moving through molasses half the time.
Thinking about Skinner reminded me a lot of Calvin Pryor from a few years back. The problem with Pryor at Louisville was that he would hit WAY too high. A big hitter and an enforcer for sure, but he just didn’t have a disciplined style, which is probably one reason he flamed out in the NFL. He was just a big hitter and that’s all. Skinner on the other hand is a much more refined tackler. Always goes for the waist or the legs. Unlike Pryor, Skinner’s technique looks a lot more disciplined and patient. Reminds me of a great white shark lurking below a seal, watching and waiting for just the right moment and then BAM!
I’m all for it. Gimmie some JL Skinner
Yeah! Where do I queue up to get some JL Skinner! Good find, Rob!
I see so much Kam in him….
I love the way Skinner hits hard and makes tackles. That is exactly what we need! He has 52 tackles and 2 interceptions this year.
I assume you’ll be rooting for Iran in the group Rob?
Love the mock during the bye man. Either there’s more than one of you or you are a high functioning Coke Drinker. Thanks as always for great content.
The more I watch Byron Young, the more I like him. I think he can potentially replace Shelby Harris if he becomes a cost cutting release to help pay Geno. Also reciever is a need, they should be planning Lockett’s replacement now, esp since it takes WR awhile to become productive in the NFL.
The majority of this last years WR class would like to say high to your “takes a while for WR to become productive” comment.
WR is a need, but not because they need time to develop. WR is a need to make this offense better. We need a number 3.
Foundational pieces for the aging DL and a couple of skill position studs to work in. Sounds like instant contributors everywhere as well as keeping an eye for the future, sort of like this draft.
I was hoping to see LB addressed. Is there any names in 2-3 that seem Seahawk-y or is that a position where we can look to Free Agency?
Only a minute into the JL Skinner highlight and I can conclude that he will get a ton of personal foul penalties. Cant be leading with the head like that.
Rob, how would you compare Tyree Wilson to Travon Walker considering the comparable measurables?
I think they’re different players. Different body types. Walker was dropping in coverage too.
I like the picks and would be happy with them. I know the two positions they have coveted is the inside rusher and the top TE. Could possibly get both if they went Mayer and Kancey. They could just cut Diggs pre June 1st and still save $10m which is the route I think they would go. Resign Neal and cut Adams in 24 and you have a good duo of Neal and Skinner. Sign me up.
I present Exhibit A as evidence centers don’t matter if guard play is strong: https://twitter.com/pff/status/1593000970404757504?s=46&t=QfONJujuHMicVdhsaN_1vg
DTR is doing some promotional talking. He said he wants UCLA to score over 60 points on USC!
https://www.yahoo.com/sports/biggest-usc-ucla-football-matchup-in-decades-stirs-up-bitter-feeling-from-years-past-215738685.html
Really interesting convo on NFL Live about the evolution of defenses in the NFL particularly wrt the DL. A topic we’re discussing in this very mock draft
https://twitter.com/danorlovsky7/status/1592885011606573056?s=20&t=GJeYgmCnN-WWvR5k7qeXNg
Interesting. On a side note, anyone know why Mina’s twatter account has been suspended?
She hasn’t. Orlovsky misspelled her last name and used the wrong twitter handle for her
https://twitter.com/minakimes
Thought this was really interesting wrt where we might go on D, thank you!
Also kinda validates Pete’s philosophy.
Rob, I’m wondering if the Zion Johnson type of athlete is your poster boy for this year’s entire draft. Looking at his tape he might be a little over-rated. Okay, he had a decent Senior Bowl. But whoa! Look at the measurables at the combine. I could see this dominating the second half of the first round and making a lot of people scratch their heads. Especially after the PFF article where Tariq Woolen goes in the first round of a redraft.
Think any General Managers took notice of THAT?
Random question….hawks have Denver’s first 2 picks. Shouldn’t the 2nd round pick match the f1st? So it should be like 40 instead of 43?
Teams with the same record snake each round. So if 1 and 2 both had like 3 wins, and team A picked first in round 1, team B picks first in round 2.
I don’t think so, if both team has same record it goes based on schedule. Easier schedule team picks first. Miami lost their round 1 pick hence 31 players in 1st round.
If you were correct, then theoretically the pick would be even earlier, like 38, opposed to 43. Henry would be right if the pick is 43, it is because 6 ish teams have the same record currently.
https://twitter.com/AltitudeSR/status/1593054846080684032
Russbot malfunction
I find it really hard to believe, Russ has always been a top pro and this would be a terrible mistake.
That would be a CTE sign, for sure. Scary if true. Unless what we all have been led to believe is not true, and Russ was never a true Pros Pro. But I find that even harder to believe given his success.
Thanks Rob for all of your time and effort. You provide a lot of joy for us!
Thanks for the early mock draft Rob, love the direction you went to shore up the front 7 early. I was wondering if the stars aligned and the Seahawks had their choice of QB ( very unlikely) who would you take? Levis (safe pick) or Richardson (possibly higher upside)? Sorry if this has been asked and answered already.
Thanks Rob for the big board and this early mock, so much quality information, so much to look forward to prior to the Senior Bowl, Combine and draft.
Re Tyreke Smith, how would he compare with the linebackers coming out this year?
And I know Rob assumed Geno and Lock will be retained, and this mock was about defense, but if the Broncos end up giving Seattle a top 4 pick, would you consider taking either Richardson or Levis with it, assuming one might still be around?
Definitely I would consider that
Rob, would you pass on Stroud or Young at #4 in favor of a D lineman?
I’d consider everything
I like the way you set the priorities: D-line, safety, WR. I’d take an ILB with our high picks only if he is the best LB in the game. I’m not very sure about taking a RB with a high pick again. I hope they use that pick to nail a guard or a center, and go RB in the later rounds. But I like the player.
Hey rob couple of guys that I think you would be interested in
Justin Ford CB from montana, tall with long arms a shut down corner. Lead fcs in interceptions last year and now teams hardly test him
Andre Carter Edge Army, first all american from army since 1990, dudes a stud.
Keep up the great work super appreciate the blog!!
Love this mock, a lot of fun players, might be the most exciting team to watch since LOB started to break down.
Every Seahawks Takeaway At The Bye Week | 2022 Seahawks
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iT6iyJpOJew&t=2s
Seahawks All Access: Week 10 vs. Buccaneers in Munich
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QI-3fLEQkv8&t=565s
Amazing work this and every week Rob. Great draft picks and the big board article was the longest and one of the best you’ve ever written. Not sure how you have the time to write so much excellent analysis of the draft and Seahawks, do podcasts, and still have a full time job and family. Thanks so much for all you do.
I have to agree that it all starts with a consistent pass rush on D, so we need playmakers to get to the QB. Kancey had another 3 sacks this last weekend against Virginia. I’d also like to see us get another big DT on day 3, like Keondre Coburn or T’vondre Sweat of Texas, both 340 lb. DTs.
Sweat is more of a run plugger, but saw after the game a couple weeks ago, Coburn for 2022 has a 90.2 pass rush grade at PFF, 19% pass rush win rate, 3 sacks, 2 QB hits & 19 QB hurries with 2 forced fumbles. In the game against Kansas St. on 11/5, he walked the guard or center back and strip sacked the QB to seal the victory at the end of the game. http://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=34959607
And it stands to reason we could lose at least Poona to FA and other DL to trades or cuts to save money so we can sign Geno + another 5-10 players besides the draft to fill out the roster.
If the Hawks could some how add Jalen Carter and Tyree Wilson to this DL and draft Skinner to replace Diggs then this could be a top 10 defense. They will need a top 5 pick to get Carter but it is not out of the question with the way Denver’s offense is playing.
Lets see how the game goes with Raiders this week. If they lose to Raiders, then wow is their season in trouble with likely coach change. That would be a turning point that we could look and say “ya, Denver really could net us a top 5.” But sadly, I suspect they will beat the raiders and we will again be looking at a between 10 and 14 pick by years end from them.
I trust in Wilson, we will get top 5 pick next year.
If this was our option I would rather trade both firsts to move up and guarantee a will Anderson or jalen carter. This feels like two reaches to me and goes back to your other articles that bpa might even be a tight end like Michael Mayer. Tyree Wilson is interesting but nowhere near top ten to me, he is slow off the line with a total lack of production up until this year which is a red flag being that you are now the older player on the field vs inexperienced undeveloped players. It makes me wonder if it will transition when you get to the nfl and now your the young inexperienced player again.
For the defensive tackle id prefer to not bank on the one outlier in the history of the defensive tackle position being his comp and relying on him to reach that or 80% of that for it to be a good first round pick. Russell Wilson got baker mayfield , kyler Murray , Johnny manziel , Zach Wilson and more over drafted and how did any of those guys outside of Russell pan out. Dreaming of xyz player becoming the historic outlier at the position often leaves you disappointed is my point here. I’m fine in the third round taking a flier but anything before that is a reach to me on that undersized d tackle.
Wilson had 13.5 TFL’s and seven sacks last season, his first as a starter
It’s not about banking on an outlier, it’s judging a player based on what he does
But it’s good to know that despite my weeks of work — I’m ‘just picking reaches’ for Seattle.
In this draft yes I believe so , but you said it yourself in previous articles that the defensive value in this draft outside will Anderson and jalen carter is in round 2. You’ve literally said this on previous articles that the bpa at our current draft position will most likely be a wr , te or rb. You wrote this article to analyze it from “if we go defensive trench heavy” perspective not because these are the bpas. So yes I think this article highlights your previous points and lackluster of defensive prospects in round one because frankly I would be very disappointed with the first round picks if this was our draft
Counter point: if they traded up for what you said, either Anderson or Carter, I would call it a huge failure. If they aren’t there with your native pick, then you don’t go get them. The depth is there, just not the high end talent (which has been inconsistent all year). You trade up for one of the quarterbacks because there is your biggest piece to flip the table. To me any other trade up would probably give me a small heart attack and be a big miss for the team.
Right now it is all what we each think and what we each hope for. I am all in on the quarterbacks. Rob is giving us certain situations, talking points, and possible strategies, along with his analysis skill as an evaluator. It is only November. I’ll also say that it is WAAAAAAY too far away from the draft for me to be this nervous about it already.
Never did I say I want to trade our two firsts but I would prefer to trade our two first for a blue chip player then two trash bins who would be 2nd-3rd round prospects in any other draft. I mean Sam Williams went in round 3 (ole miss de) and tyree Wilson is no better a prospect then him but because this draft class is so inept at defense in round one these guys are getting pushed up the board…. which rob has literally highlighted in other articles he’s written.
Sam Williams went in R3 simply because he had major, glaring character red flags
That’s the only reason why
In regards to trading up to pick Carter or Anderson: why? They are both good players. Both might become great nfl players, but to me, neither is so head and shoulders above, that they would warrant 2 first round picks.
The Kancey pick at 22 is so intriguing to me, I keep coming back to it. Would the hawks do it? Is it a good idea? Absolutely a fantastic suggestion for this point in the process. The potential to get some disruption, youth, closest to the ball, at arguably the organizations weakest area, with pick 22!? Admittedly there is a risk, as clearly outlined in the piece (size/game translating to nfl), but it’s the 22nd pick! No man’s land territory of this years 1st round.
Great article.
Why would a team in the top-3 accept any trade from Seattle so they can move up? If the reason you say they should move up is because there isn’t the blue chip talent at 7&22, why would a team trade down?
The only way a team in the top-3 is moving down to 7&22 is if the offer is so over the top good they can’t say no. Seattle’s two firsts isn’t getting it done. You’d have to do much better than that IMO.
Would love it if the Hawks focused on the DL in the draft, especially with all the early round picks they have. My biggest gripe with the last decade is the ability of PC/JS to build a DL that gets after the QB without blitzing. PC claimed after the 2012 loss to the falcons that he would never be short of pass rushers again. Yet they have repeatedly done that and it’s cost them. Pete’s D needs pressure with 4 to let the back end be aggressive. Most think the LOB was why that D was so dominant but it was the front 4 who made it all click. They didn’t lose the 2014 SB because they didn’t give Beast the ball(though that didn’t help). They lost it because Cliff got hurt and they could no longer get pressure on Brady. If he doesn’t get hurt that game never gets close. If they want to get back to having a dominant D it has to start up front!
So many of the projected 1st Rounders in this draft leave me wanting a little more and mostly from their physical traits, because the physical traits help with the projection to being NFL sized players.
With Tyree Wilson it’s weight. With the way he plays, I want to project him in the Arik Armstead, DeForest Bucknor mould, but he’s too light.
With Calijah Kancey he’s at about 90% of all the tresholds you’d feel comfortable with, regards his size.
Michaal Mayer, it’s his length and speed.
Bryce Young – enough said.
You’d like to feel that you have a good chance of selecting a Pro Bowl quality player in the 1st round, but if many of the 2022 1st round prospects become Pro Bowlers, it’ll be despite their measurables. This makes projecting them to this level even harder.
This is a fair observation. And it concerns me as well. Are you getting more than a role player with him? Or, alternatively, is the role he would play sufficient to spend a R1 pick on?
I don’t know yet, especially without combine testing.
But with regards to measurables, I’d point out that Aaron Donald was also about 90% of the thresholds you’d feel comfortable for a DT. Maybe slightly more because he tested so athletically, which we don’t know yet for Kancey. But stature-wise, Donald’s only fractionally taller/heavier than Kancey, not enough to make a difference for me.
Of course, Donald had about double Kancey’s production of TFLs/sacks in college. But that’s why Kancey will be available in the back of round 1.
Assuming he tests as athletically as he plays, I think his upside is well worth the price at 22.
The Combine and perhaps Senior Bowl before it, will tell us a lot about many of these prospects.
With Kancey, I’m also hopeful he’ll put up a good number in the Bench Press. From a smaller stature you need to be able to demonstrate power, to stand up on the Interior of the defensive line. Aaron Donald had 34 reps.
If he’s over 285lbs, athletically impresses and pushes over 32 reps, I’ll be on board his 1st round buzz. From what i see in his tape, his arm length will be over 32 inches, which is again where Donald is at?
Fantastic piece, Rob, as always! I think the key to this draft is flexibility. With extra picks, it will be so nice to let the draft come to us and not be fighting the big board. ….and dare I say – fun!
I know you didn’t consider trades, but I really like the idea of moving around this year. Can you move up from #7 to #6 to get a massively better player (or #4 or #5 for a QB at a reasonable cost)? If the board breaks down as you suggested at #7, I think they should trade down, perhaps a couple times. We could get extra 2s and 3s to fill out the LB, CB, G, C that you mentioned. That would set us up so well against the cap for years to come.
I think salary for draft picks is highly underrated. The #7 pick last year got at $27 million contract. Ken Walker with the 41st pick got an $8 million contract. I’m okay taking a bigger risk on upside at the QB position, but the $15 million difference is a lot. If you take a DL in later R1 and fill out your S, LB, C, G, CB, WR3s in rounds 2-4, you save a TON of money versus the cap with very little risk. Then you can use that saved money to go out and get a proven difference maker in free agency at a premium position like DE.
I would really hope the Seahawks are making their decisions based on talent and fit, not on the size of their rookie salary.
Looking at the draft board got me thinking. Do you think P&J will be more likely to trade back in the first round or hold firm? Way too early question, but curious if you had any initial thoughts Rob?
BTW, just read an article on how Dameon Pierce should be called an elite RB. Just one example of your spot on analysis! You were high on him from the beginning, if I recall correctly. I really enjoy this blog, thank you Rob!
Although the journalist asking the question isn’t credited here, we know who he is 😎
https://seahawkswire.usatoday.com/2022/11/15/seahawk-geno-smith-contract-talks-conversation-thats-coming/?newsletter_origin=seahawkswire.usatoday.com&newsletter_post_position=0
Brock and Salk, also discussed and played Pete Carroll’s response to this question, made by a reporter at the Munich press conference, on their radio show on Monday. I’d say it’s almost gone viral!!
I think the questionner needs more accreditaion to Seattle press conferences, even if just by Zoom!
😂
I’m glad it appears to have been a worthwhile question
I was planning to ask about Geno’s contract, the report stole my thunder a bit.
ESPN draft projector as of Nov 16 2022
https://twitter.com/nfldraftscout/status/1592955672198422528?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1592955672198422528%7Ctwgr%5E0ccbcfed3ef6d9b68da70869e3a2ece887ee519f%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fieldgulls.com%2F2022%2F11%2F17%2F23463836%2F2023-nfl-draft-order-seahawks-currently-hold-7th-overall-pick-broncos-russell-wilson-trade
Well that would be nice.
Their next two games are pivotal. If they cant beat the Raiders or the Panthers, we could be looking at this top 3 scenario. Man if only they hadnt won the close games with 9ers and Jags, both games they could have lost.
Thing is, if this projection holds, both Houston and Carolina are QB takers, right?
Certainly Carolina but also the Texans. Mills is serviceable, a solid back up. But I don’t think they think he’s their guy.
So if Seattle have the 3rd pick and they want one of Levis or Richardson, they’d have to trade up. And even though it’s only 1 or 2 slots depending, it’s still massively expensive.
Depending on how expensive, I think I might rather have Jalen Carter or Will Anderson (but much much more Carter), or even trade down for multiple extra picks in R2/R3 range. Pick 7 may not be a hot trade target but I bet pick 3 is.
FWIW, barring injury and assuming Anthony Richardson declares, I think he and Will Levis go first and second overall. Just not sure of the order, though I’m leaning Richardson first.
Chris Simms with an X’s and O’s read on the breakdown on the Julio Jones TD.
Makes a compelling case that Woolen did his assignment correctly and Jordyn Brooks blew his.
https://twitter.com/CSimmsQB/status/1593317295153094656
Brooks man, sigh.
The only thing I will say tho, Simms says corners can’t run all the way across the field with a 4.3 WR except Woolen can. I’m sure he played this properly and Simms is right, but all I’m saying is Woolen could do it if called on because his speed is so elite.
I couldn’t believe people were praising Jordyn Brooks’ performance on Sunday
I kept seeing people tweeting about how well he was doing — including people at the game, sat in similar seats
No idea what they were watching. To me he has having an absolute honker.
40.6 PFF grade vs Tampa Bay
He has one TFL in 10 games. One.
And it came in the 10th game.
Rob:
I don’t see this small school dude on your big board which is very understandable due to his small school status. Currently considered a 4-th round pick @ NFLmockdraft database. I think if you check him out, you’ll maybe find a day-3 spot for him on your big board(?)
DL-Karl Brooks, Bowling Green St., 6-4/300,
A smaller school Captain and 100% Leader of his team’s defense with very impressive stats. Post season will be big for him IMO. Have you watched him & checked him out? If not, I’d recommend checking him out as a possible DL option on day-3(?) He would seem to have some versatility in where he lines up and is obviously pretty active & disruptive. Well worth a day-3 pick, IMO.
2022: 59 pressures!!!!!!!/17-TFL/10-sacks/3-PD/2-FF/1-FR —-> so far 2022.
CAREER: 45-TFL, 27.5-SACKS, 1-INT, 4-PBU, 5-FF, 1-FR.
A DL SLEEPER???? – SEE HIGHLIGHTS: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wg9VaTGE4QA –and– https://www.youtube.com/shorts/X-nzyA1EEtU
I watched Bowling Green at Toledo on Tuesday night and he stood out with a couple of sacks in an upset win.
I didn’t know his name just his jersey number but that’s him.
I watched that game as well, I keyed on DL play early in the game and Brooks caught my eye. Of note, in addition to the 2-sacks in this game, he had 7-tkls, 4-TFL & 2-QBH and at times looked like a man among boys.
PFN Mock Simulator is an addiction I can’t quit. It’s rotting my brain.
14. Anthony Richardson QB Florida SEA
35. Calijah Kancey DT Pittsburgh SEA
42. JL Skinner S Boise State SEA
44. John Michael Schmitz OC Minnesota SEA
45. Jalin Hyatt WR Tennessee SEA
53. Zach Charbonnet RB UCLA SEA
91. Ji’Ayir Brown S Penn State SEA
2024 ATL 1st
2024 JAX 1st
What a dream draft + 2 extra #1s in 2024. Of course QB AR, Hyatt and a few others should go higher, but that would be fantastic!
Rob, regarding Bryce Young, in any of your reviews of him or of other scouting reports you’ve read, have you seen that his height limits his ability to throw to the middle of the field, like Wilson was criticized for not being good at. Which makes me wonder whether Wilson’s issues throwing over the middle were on him or on the schemes Waldron/Pete set., if the latter I wonder whether Waldron/Pete would balk at getting another short quarterback. I understand the point that’s often been made, that his size makes him an injury risk.
There is definitely, for me, evidence of him bailing on a pocket for no reason. Which I take as him not being able to read the field properly at 5-10. That said, as with Wilson/Murray etc — there are plenty of times where he finds his throwing lane.
I like Young. I can’t say, though, that I’m that interested in another short QB.