Would the Seahawks draft Drew Allar?

Last week I said that Allar was my main focus during the college football Championship weekend. Like most people, I came away impressed.

Penn State has this knack of playing within itself. Despite having a big-armed quarterback, two dynamic running backs, the most prolific weapon at tight end in the NCAA and former highly recruited receivers, they constantly leave you wanting more.

That’s also been the case with Allar’s performances. He’s been far less erratic in 2024 and has improved. Based on 2023 tape he was undraftable. This year, he’s been better without justifying some of the lofty ‘early round draft pick’ talk.

Against Oregon I thought he took things up a notch. The Ducks were ready to run away with the game and Penn State’s offense kept them in it. Allar wasn’t flawless but he did two noteworthy things. Firstly, there was a noticeable zip to his passes, showing off a pro-level arm combined with an attack-minded approach. Secondly, he created out of structure to deliver big plays.

You’ve all seen this by now but it’s pretty impressive:

His first touchdown pass is also worth seeing. Granted, he’s well protected and who knows what the safety’s doing in coverage. He does make this 30-yard throw look fairly routine though:

He also had a couple of layered throws over the middle into tight windows. There aren’t any limitations in his throwing range. Allar gives you an opportunity to attack every blade of grass.

He still threw badly behind on his first interception. He still hasn’t had a big win or even a performance that elevates his team beyond expectations. Had he been able to drag Penn State to overtime, it would’ve been that moment. Instead when driving for a potential game-tying score, he simply threw another interception.

There are technical flaws that need fixing, especially when it comes to better footwork and base so he doesn’t have to throw ‘all arm’ as much.

Still, the point here is to weigh-up his potential and whether this big-armed, well-sized, athletic quarterback will interest a GM who seems to have a particular interest in big-armed, well-sized, athletic quarterbacks.

I do think John Schneider will have interest in Allar. Just as I thought earlier this year he probably would’ve taken Drake Maye if given his choice of the first round non-Caleb Williams quarterbacks. This is the type of player he tends to like. I’m not sure yet what round I think he’d be willing to take him — but I do think there could be some interest and it could be early.

It’s probably best to be open minded about it. Like everyone else, I think a big focus on the offensive line is needed. Eventually though, the Seahawks need to identify and draft a quarterback. They’ve had an ideal bridge setup for the last three seasons without the quarterback to bridge to.

While previous Schneider favourites like Russell Wilson and Patrick Mahomes had highly productive, long college careers — he also fell for the intriguing physical potential of Josh Allen. If you remember, Allen’s time at Wyoming was a bit all over the place. He threw 21 interceptions in his final two seasons. Like Allar, he was only a two-year starter. I remember being massively sceptical about him as a prospect based on tape because he made way too many bad mistakes.

Then he went to the Senior Bowl and looked and played like a factory made ideal quarterback. I was sold on his potential after that. Everything was perfect — size, arm talent, hand size, athleticism. He excelled in the game in Mobile. Then he had a spectacular pro-day, the best you’ll see. He was pretty much the perfect physical specimen and a monstrous talent.

Allar will do well to get close to this unrealistically high bar physically. He’s athletic but looks far more awkward on the move than Allen ever did. However, he’s listed at 6-5 and 238lbs. Allen, at his combine, was 6-5 and 237lbs.

It’s easy to forget but Allen was a meme for two years in the NFL. Some players, especially with exceptional physical tools, just need time.

What about other draft eligible quarterbacks?

I think Allar and Garrett Nussmeier are the two Schneider might have most interest in. Nussmeier gets a bad rap online. Unlike many, I’ve watched all of his games this season. I implore people to ignore the noise. His technical level is way beyond most college quarterbacks and this is after just one year as a starter. His gunslinger style, ability to deliver pro-level throws consistently and his plus moments in 2024 far outweigh the mistakes he’s made, many of which are correctable with experience.

If either or both declare, keep them in mind. I’ve long thought Schneider is itching to draft a quarterback, rather than avoid doing so. The right player simply hasn’t been there since they traded Russell Wilson. These two fit the bill, I suspect, for what he’s looking for.

We’ve spent a lot of time talking about Quinn Ewers too. I’d guess Schneider has been intrigued with Ewers’ natural talent for some time which is why he travelled to watch him live a few weeks ago.

While Ewers was getting hammered and blamed online for losing to Georgia on Saturday, it’s worth remembering their kicker missed two field goals, the O-line kept giving away penalties, the defense couldn’t stop Georgia’s offense with a bad backup quarterback and the receivers kept dropping passes. However, I think all of the concerns we’ve raised about Ewers in the past were evident in this game. It was the perfect example of who he is as a prospect.

There were some deep and layered passes that were absolutely superb in the first half. These are the passes to remind you why he was rated so highly during recruiting. Then there are the ugly moments. The interceptions that just look so basic and frustrating and avoidable. The lack of great mobility and elusiveness, in part because he’s so banged up all the time and has continuous injury problems. He’s not a big quarterback and seems ill-prepared to handle the hits. When games turn, he doesn’t seem able to elevate and lift his team.

Ewers combines a whip-like rapid release reminiscent of Aaron Rodgers — a big positive — with a level of indecisiveness in the pocket that eradicates that aspect of his game.

He came into the season viewed as an inconsistent yet naturally gifted player who needed to show greater consistency and an ability to stay healthy. He hasn’t achieved either. He’s not enhanced his stock in 2024. More of the same, if anything, has weakened his standing.

Someone will still take him on day two with the view of taking a chance on his natural talent. It could be Schneider. I think the moment has passed, though, where this would be a consideration with a high pick.

I think in the case of Allar and Nussemeier, Schneider might be more inclined to take a gamble early with the idea of bridging to the future.

Key offensive points for 2025

It’ll be an interesting off-season when it comes to the quarterback position and the offense for four reasons:

1. Is Ryan Grubb back for another season?
2. How do they fix the offensive line?
3. What do they do with Geno Smith?
4. Will they draft a quarterback?

On Ryan Grubb’s job

I think the online discourse on the future of Seattle’s offensive coordinator is wrong. It’s become a debate around ‘giving him time’ versus ‘he’s not good enough’. A question of ‘does he have the tools to succeed’ versus whether he should still be producing better results.

I think it’s much more about philosophy and fit.

Mike Macdonald didn’t bring a staff with him to Seattle. He didn’t have a bunch of coaching buddies to call upon, with years of history together. A whole new staff of strangers was assembled instead.

It’s inevitable within this environment that some people will fit and others won’t, for a variety of reasons. Changes will happen in the off-season whatever happens between now and their final game. That’s just what happens when you put people together with no prior working relationship. The Head Coach will have a better idea of what he wants for the long-term. The truth is a year ago he probably didn’t have as clear a picture as he does now.

Like a few others, I’ve wondered for weeks whether Grubb and Macdonald are a long-term match. It doesn’t mean Grubb is bad at his job. Just last week he discussed candidly the challenge of working with a different Head Coach after years of building a relationship with Kalen DeBoer. The fact that it was described as an experience rather than a roaring success felt interesting.

There have been a few examples where Macdonald’s answers at press conferences about the offensive struggles, choices and planning have been quite pointed. The Head Coach and offensive coordinator, when asked similar philosophical questions, have sometimes given very different answers. This was particularly interesting when they were both asked about whether you need to commit to the run in order to establish it. Macdonald offered an unwavering ‘yes’, Grubb’s answer was broader and nowhere near as emphatic.

While the offensive line has been a clear problem, I wonder whether Macdonald’s preferred solution might differ from Grubb’s. I think there’s definitely sufficient evidence within Macdonald’s various interviews to doubt whether a shotgun-heavy and ‘throw the ball a lot more’ approach is what he wants. I’m also not sure he’ll be content with the way they’ve handled short-yardage situations and the red zone — areas where you should still find a base-level of success even with a poor offensive line.

The Arizona game was a step in the right direction and hopefully the start of major offensive progress. If they finish the year brilliantly, I reserve the right to adjust my view on this. However, for me this isn’t about judging Grubb’s position based on week-to-week performances. It’s all about fit. There’s just been enough there in the way Macdonald has bristled slightly about the offense that makes me think this might not be an arrangement that will continue beyond this season. I accept I could be completely wrong. We’ll find out in a few weeks.

If they do move on, the next OC might already be on the staff. More on that later.

What happens with the offensive line?

Investment is clearly required. Additions at all three interior spots are necessary. If you can add proven quality, it should be prioritised. Creating cap space to bid for available quality veterans is important, although admittedly there won’t be an extensive list of options there. I’ll keep banging this drum — adding toughness and experience in the form of someone like Colts center Ryan Kelly, if he reaches free agency, might be wise.

Talent should be added in the draft. There are really good interior O-line options to bolster their biggest need area. Tyler Booker, Donovan Jackson, Logan Jones, Jake Majors, Parker Brailsford, Jared Wilson, Dylan Fairchild and others can really help the team. There are a cluster of potential tackle-to-guard converts, highlighted by Josh Conerly, Grey Zabel and Kelvin Banks.

There are also some interesting blocking tight ends eligible for the draft, such as Iowa’s Luke Lachey. Adding quality here can also help improve Seattle’s play in the trenches.

There has to be a concerted effort to fix this issue and I think there will be. For all the justifiable worry fans have about this position group, I suspect the Seahawks know they’ve reached a point where they have to do something about their offensive line. The talent is there in the draft to put things right.

What happens with Geno Smith?

I think it’s highly unlikely he plays out the final year of his contract with a cap-hit that will almost certainly be at least $40.5m next season due to his escalators.

I agree with Brady Henderson’s view, as noted in this ESPN article last week:

13 touchdown passes to 12 interceptions doesn’t seem worthy of a long-term commitment in (the) $50 million a year range, which would put him in the top 10 among quarterbacks. What seems more likely is a short-term deal that boosts his current $25 million average per season, leaving Seattle with the flexibility to go year to year with him.

Despite the clamour from certain sections of the media and fanbase, this is likely to be Seattle’s position on the matter. They’ll want the flexibility to go year-to-year given Smith’s age.

Who knows how he and his representatives will feel about that? Unlike in 2023, he won’t be able to establish his market as a free agent. Smith will argue he deserves a raise and an extension based on the wider quarterback market, while the Seahawks will be wary of bidding against themselves at a time when the NFL is largely not getting value for money out of quarterback contracts.

Is there a compromise? That’d be best for both parties. Something that allows the Seahawks to lower Smith’s 2025 cap hit, retain some consistency and a good bridge to what’s next, while having the flexibility to draft an heir apparent and prepare for a longer-term future. Meanwhile, Smith gets a financial boost plus an opportunity to bolster his earnings, probably in the form of contractual escalators again.

I don’t think it’d make much sense for Smith to force the issue and hold out. It’s hard to see how that would benefit anyone. He didn’t have a big market in 2023 and I’m not sure much has changed. Compromise feels like his best bet and it might be Seattle’s too.

It also might be best to co-operate before the Seahawks assess alternative options. As I wrote about recently, I don’t think it’s unrealistic that they might look into Sam Darnold’s market. His five-touchdown performance against the Falcons, played within the environment of a poor Minnesota offensive line performance, bolstered his stock further.

To recap what I wrote two weeks ago, Schneider attended Darnold’s pro-day in 2018. He didn’t just go to Josh Allen’s. As far as I’m aware, he didn’t attend Baker Mayfield’s or Josh Rosen’s. We’ve heard a lot about Schneider’s interest in Allen as the Bills quarterback has turned into a superstar. We might not have heard as much about potential interest in Darnold because up until this year, he’d not succeeded.

Before he was traded by the Jets to the Panthers in 2021, there was plenty of talk about interest from the Seahawks in Darnold. This coincided with Russell Wilson’s four-team trade list being made public. It’s plausible that had Wilson been moved a year earlier, the Seahawks would’ve pursued Darnold. After all, Brad Biggs from the Chicago Tribune quoted a NFL GM saying the Seahawks were a team to watch with Darnold. Colin Cowherd made the connection, as did a report by Pat Leonard in the New York Daily News, citing a league source.

Smith’s cap-hit of approximately $40-42m next year can be compared to a cap-hit as low as $7-9m for Darnold if he signs a deal similar to Mayfield’s in Tampa Bay. If you account for $13.5m of dead money on Smith’s Seattle deal, that’s potentially a 50% saving on a cap hit in 2025 on a quarterback. Darnold is also seven years younger than Smith and it won’t be difficult to structure an ‘out’ in his contract for year three (Tampa Bay is protected in that way with Mayfield).

I’m not going to go over old ground again regarding Schneider’s thoughts on Smith but there’s enough out there to question whether the GM is fully committed to the current starter.

I don’t think there’s a massive difference between Darnold and Smith and that’s why the age difference and 2025 cap saving could interest Seattle. They have both had relative success after difficult years playing for bad teams like the Jets.

They have similar stats in certain categories:

Completion %
Darnold 68.4%
Smith 69.5%

PFF grade
Darnold 86.4
Smith 83.3

Big time throws
Darnold 29 (leads NFL)
Smith 25

Times sacked
Darnold 40
Smith 40

On deep throws — something I think will be important to Schneider — Darnold (51) and Smith (52) have thrown virtually the same number of +20 yard passes. Darnold’s completion percentage on these passes is 52.9% compared to Smith’s 46.2%. He’s averaged 19 yards per attempt compared to Smith’s 14.2. They’ve both thrown seven touchdowns and 19 ‘big time throws’ on downfield passes. If you think Darnold has an O-line advantage, on average he’s had 3.20 seconds to throw on deep passes, with Smith averaging 3.18 seconds.

There are some noticeable differences too. For example, Darnold has the third best quarterback rating (108.1) while Smith is way down in 18th (90.4). Darnold has thrown twice as many touchdowns (28) than Smith (14) despite throwing 80 fewer passes. Darnold’s yards per attempt (8.5) is fourth best in the league, while Smith’s (7.5) is only 17th. Darnold has also been far more effective in the red zone. He’s thrown 21 touchdowns and has a 72.2% completion percentage on 72 attempts. Smith has just eight red zone touchdowns, completing 48% of his passes on 50 attempts.

Some people won’t like this but Darnold is pretty much a younger Smith with better stats in a handful of important categories. In fairness, Smith has faced 31 more pressures than Darnold — but that was a Stone Forsythe problem that has since been remedied (Forsythe gave up 27 pressures against the Lions, Giants and 49ers alone).

It may be even more appealing for the Seahawks to make the switch if they part with Grubb and promote Jake Peetz to be the offensive coordinator. He is from the same Sean McVay tree that Kevin O’Connell comes from. There’d be some crossover for Darnold. Peetz effectively replaced O’Connell in LA, having worked with McVay in Washington previously. He was seen as a highly rated up-and-comer in LA and it was somewhat surprising the Seahawks were able to bring him to Seattle.

If Peetz took over the coordinator job, it would also prevent massive changes to the offensive terminology internally.

There are potential downsides to signing Darnold, of course. You get a cheap 2025 cap-hit but a substantial 2026 outlay. If he turns out to be a one-hit wonder with O’Connell, you’re stuck with him. He will quickly turn into a major financial burden. Other teams might be more inclined to take that risk when they look at their weaker existing starters.

Another downside could be the locker room reaction. It seems like Smith is popular with team mates. Shifting him out and inserting Darnold could be disruptive, especially if he struggles. That said, Tarvaris Jackson was very popular in Seattle in 2011 and the Seahawks didn’t shirk paying Matt Flynn to replace him, before drafting Russell Wilson.

Will they draft a quarterback?

Whenever they do finally take one, especially if it’s a high-ish pick, they will need a bridge. You never want to go into a draft tipping your hand unless you have the #1 pick. The Seahawks, if they intend to draft Allar, Nussmeier, Ewers or another quarterback, would require a proven starter to act as the bridge while masking their intentions.

If they can work things out quickly with Smith on a compromised extension that allows them to lower his 2025 cap-hit, they can comfortably present the deal as a bigger commitment than it is and feel good about their flexibility in the draft. Signing Darnold has the same effect.

The ideal scenario for the Seahawks is to have a veteran starter and a young, cheap, drafted quarterback being developed initially, then competing for the starting gig. I don’t blame Schneider at all for not creating this situation sooner. As mentioned earlier, the Seahawks haven’t passed on anyone in the last three drafts who has so far amounted to anything. You can’t force this. Schneider is right not to take a quarterback just for the sake of it. He has still added a young player in Sam Howell, so he’s not oblivious to the need.

For all the talk about the 2025 draft class not being great, an opinion I’ve voiced myself, it might work out quite well for the Seahawks. They might be able to identify a quarterback to invest in while still bolstering their offensive line.

Whatever happens between now and the end of the season, this promises to be an eventful and intriguing few months for the offense.

Bonus defensive off-season comment

I’ve no idea whether the Seahawks will have the cap space to make this happen, or whether the player would be interested in playing for another NFC West team. However, Budda Baker is a warrior. The thought of adding him to Seattle’s defense in a hybrid role currently occupied by Rayshawn Jenkins, is tantalising. It’s something I’ve thought a lot about since the weekend.

I’d even be quite aggressive to make this happen. Baker’s talent, physical style, playmaking qualities and leadership would be priceless. Look at how he played on Sunday, despite getting banged up during the game.

I’d love to think he’d be open minded about coming home, rather than opposed to the idea because he’s become such an integral part of the Cardinals for so long. I also think there’d be a ton of interest in him. Watching him in Seattle next year is an intriguing thought if it’s financially viable. It would further tip Macdonald’s unit closer to an elite level. It would also be a great schematic fit for the player.

Assuming he reaches the market, it’d be a rare opportunity to add a legitimate high-quality defender who is still at a reasonable age (he turns 29 in January) and continues to play at an exceptional level.