Perception can be a funny thing sometimes.
For example, if you were told the Seahawks would come out of this draft with Jesse Williams and Christine Michael, I suspect you’d give it a big thumbs up. Yet I sense a slightly mixed reaction to Seattle’s latest class simply due to the order in which the players were taken.
I had Williams pinned to Seattle at #56 in my final mock draft, but he fell due to lingering concerns over a troublesome knee injury. Nobody really anticipated a fall into round five. Put it down to one of those cases where information within the various front offices never leaked to the media. The Seahawks clearly liked something about him, given they traded up for the first time in the John Schneider era to get the big Australian (and Tharold Simon, corner from LSU).
Michael was one of four players — along with Williams, Quinton Patton and Khaseem Greene — who we slated as possible options for Seattle in round two. Michael was the pick after trading down to #62, but Patton and Greene both lasted into round four (somewhat surprisingly). I’m guessing a few people raised an eye brow at taking a running back so early. Some, not unfairly, believed there were greater needs. Such as defensive tackle. Put Michael in round three after Williams in round two, and people would rejoice. Again, perception can be funny sometimes.
I would recommend forgetting the rounds where certain players were drafted and just look at the class overall. When I look at this group I see players with a legit shot to make what has become a pretty deep roster even better.
Michael will instantly have an impact, which is all you can ask for from a second round pick. At a time when a lot of people expect the Seahawks to open up the passing game and begin to exploit further wrinkles within the read-option, this was a statement to the contrary. Pete Carroll has never wavered from his instance that his offense will be built around the run. It’s time to take that point at face value.
Marshawn Lynch is not a machine and his physical running style will lead to injuries. That doesn’t necessarily mean season ending issues, but the little back problems and foot injuries he seems to have carried for the last couple of years will probably continue. It might not keep him off the field (it didn’t last year) but getting Michael allows the Seahawks to manage this situation even better than they were able to last year. Lynch is so important to this team. They don’t want to wait until he gets a serious injury to address this situation.
Jordan Hill and Jesse Williams significantly upgrade what this team had at defensive tackle (which was very little) — a priority area coming into the off-season. The league is full of big-name busts at the position. Pass rushers who flatter to deceive, showing enough leg to find a home in round one. And yet you can count the number of elite three-technique’s on one hand. The elite guys go early (see: Ndamukong Suh, Sheldon Richardson). Even if the Seahawks had kept the #25 pick this year, the best they could’ve hoped for was Sly Williams. Instead of Williams, they get Percy Harvin, Jordan Hill and Jesse Williams. Think about that for a second.
The best three technique in the NFL is a former fourth round pick weighing 6-1 and 300lbs. While nobody would necessarily compare Jordan Hill to Geno Atkins, Hill’s frame (6-1 and also 300lbs-ish) is very similar. The Seahawks are right to keep searching for the next diamond in the rough. Darnell Dockett was also a mid-round pick. They may never find what they’re looking for, but they’ve given themselves a shot with the two guys taken this year.
Williams’ health will be key, although Pete Carroll has already pegged him as a three-technique speaking during the press conference today (see above). Hill can play the one or the three. There’s good depth along the line now. And who’d bet against either Hill or Williams starting this year or next?
Chris Harper is a player I have mixed feelings about. Watching Kansas State games last year, I developed a passing interest without really studying him. Once I sat down to focus solely on his play, my interest waned a little. He’s stocky rather than tall (he’s 6-1 and close to 230lbs) but the Seahawks clearly want to use him predominantly on the outside.
Harper’s very clever at shielding the receiver and using his frame to his advantage. I like that about him. He competes for the ball and is capable of making difficult catches in double coverage. But it seemed too often on tape there were more negative plays than positive. Little mistakes, an unwillingness to improvise when a play breaks down and no outstanding characteristics made for a frustrating watch at times.
The Seahawks have been looking for what you’d call a ‘possession’ guy for some time. A physical receiver who compliments the rest of the group. They’ve tried Mike Williams, Kris Durham and Braylon Edwards. Harper is the next man up. There’s plenty of tape out there so we’ll get into him (and the others) over the next few days.
Cornerback Tharold Simon is the type of guy you want to love, but can’t make the full commitment. He has great length, fluidity and the ability to stick in coverage. Despite that, he doesn’t seem to play with any great physical quality or intensity. He’s one of the players the LSU coaches publicly listed as not making the most of his opportunity to be great. An arrest during the draft for intimidating a police officer wasn’t great news either.
Having said all of that, you look at him in pads and think “Seahawks corner” immediately. He has the potential. He has the size and length. He had 22 pass break-ups and seven picks in three years at LSU, despite playing with production machine’s like Patrick Peterson, Morris Claiborne and Tyrann Mathieu. He’ll have to battle with a deep crop of corners to win a place on the roster. Who’d bet against him being the next big thing though? We’ve seen this team work their magic on Richard Sherman — a player who looked far from convincing at times for Stanford. I wouldn’t be shocked if Simon was starting for the Seahawks by 2014/15.
I’m not going to pretend I have anything to offer on Luke Wilson, Ryan Seymour, Ty Powell or Jared Smith. Apparently they plan to try Smith — a defensive tackle in college — at guard. He is the second coming of Sweezy. Spencer Ware, a running back at LSU (and also on that list I mentioned earlier) will be transformed into a full back and special teams, errr, specialist. Don’t rule him out as a runner though. His tape is pretty good.
A lot of people talked about a need at offensive tackle. Consider this off-season a vote of confidence in Breno Giacomini. Not that he needed one, he had a terrific 2012 season apart from a spate of early penalties. Giacomini gets a raw deal from the fans for some reason. Perhaps he’s a bit of a scape goat? I don’t know. But the fact Seattle waited until round seven to draft a tackle (NE Oklahoma State’s Michael Bowie) suggests they don’t think this is a major need. After all, they passed on Terron Armstead, Brennan Williams, David Bakhtiari, Jordan Mills and a long list of others.
They didn’t draft a linebacker, which shows a degree of faith in the players already on the roster and gives a nod to the way the defense will line up this year. Expect a few creative looks with an extra pass rusher playing the SAM. It’s something we talked about when discussing Courtney Upshaw last year, and Pete Carroll has been pretty vocal about Bruce Irvin and Cliff Avril featuring in adaptable roles this year.
Is it me, or did John Schneider seem a little agitated during the press conference today? It’s maybe nothing. Or perhaps he missed out on a player or two he really wanted during this draft?
What was the biggest shock on day three? For me it’s Tyler Bray and Matt Scott going undrafted. Shocker. Bray’s always had character issues and his play can be wild and erratic. But for nobody to draft the guy is still a little surprising. Scott was maybe overrated during the process but must have had lingering injury concerns to become an UDFA. There was a time when he was considered a possible day two pick.
Prediction: Matt Barkley wins a starting job in Philly. Maybe even this year.
I think the Jets had an incredible draft. Sheldon Richardson and Dee Milliner — for me — were the two best players available in 2013 They’ll set up that defense for years to come. Geno Smith will almost certainly become the new starting quarterback. Brian Winters and Oday Aboushi will solidify the offensive line and Winters in particular is a great pick. And to top it all off, they trade for Chris Ivory. Bravo, John Idzik. Bravo.
Baltimore, unsurprisingly, finish in a close second for me. Their first five picks were Matt Elam, Arthur Brown, Brandon Williams, John Simon and Kyle Juszczyk. At least in Juszczyk’s case, we don’t have to worry about spelling (or saying) that name over and over again.
San Francisco also had an awesome draft. Sorry, but they did. That team isn’t going away. Seahawks fans can dream about Super Bowls if they want, but the first step is overtaking the Niners in the NFC West. And that will not be easy.
Nobody seems to have asked this question or done any digging, but I still want to know if San Francisco moved ahead of Seattle in round two because the Seahawks were planning to draft Vance McDonald at #56. Given the interest in both teams right now, I’m surprised nobody’s gone after that one.
You can keep track of the UDFA’s signed by Seattle here courtesy of Field Gulls.
Tomorrow we’ll get into the drafted guys and find out more about them. I’ve also already compiled a list of 2014 players to watch so we’ll get into that too.
Regarding Chris Harper, I listened to this interview with Trent Kirchner:
http://www.snappytv.com/snaps/assistant-director-of-pro-personnel-trent-kirchner-on-chris-about-2013-nfl-draft-on-seattle-seahawks
He stressed that Harper has only played the position for two and a half years, but the team apparently feels that he has the type of personality that will thrive when he’s in a locker room with professional players.
I haven’t watched any tape on Harper, so I really don’t know what to expect, but it will be interesting to see how he develops.
Thanks for the write-up, Rob.
I’m looking forward to getting into the Harper tape in more detail this week.
You are dead on about Harper seemingly making far too many mistakes to get very excited about him. Yet one thing I noticed about him from 4 games was that he appeared to play the position in a very unique manner. Some seemingly insignificant aspects I noticed were how hard he works at selling run blocks on PA before breaking on a route and also after securing a catch he does an excellent job at quickly squaring his shoulders and surveying the field. This is not a guy who simply turns it into overdrive the second he gets the ball- he really tries to read the field and get every inch available. On a team that has a serious rushing attack as well as a QB that needs to be spied often, Harper could be very effective at running underneath routes away from the action early on in his career.
Good points. I will say this for Harper… I cannot think of an offense outside of Air Force and GT, which has surprisingly put some talented receivers in NFL, where it would be more difficult and frustrating to be a receiver. It is a power-run, clock-control offense with a QB who would envy Tebow’s arm and consistency.
Harper is certainly raw and inconsistent with his performance, but I can see that changing in a different environment.
He’s also built to destroy DBs when run blocking, Seahawks like to beat people up.
Maybe the Seahawks leaked that they were interested in a TE from Rice and SF made the wrong assumption. Or maybe SF thought Houston wanted McDonald, and didn’t see Seattle as a suitable trade partner.
Very possible, especially the Houston suggestion. They too were potentially in the market for a tight end.
Agree. They were worried about Houston. Seahawks very unlikely to have taken McDonald or any TE not named Eifert in R2.
I like to see how players perform before I call a draft great. I think there will be a lot of busts in this draft due to the lack of elite talent. This was definitely a depth draft over a draft full of starters. So many players that didn’t stand out enough to make it easy to choose them early does not equate into a quality draft in my opinion. It equates into something more like 2009. I know there will be a few standouts, there always are. I don’t see a lot of pop players from this draft. I hope next year has more elite talent. The one thing I noticed this year reading draft information was the extraordinary lack of elite athleticism, size with athleticism, and general lack of standout elite ability. There was almost no one that I was excited for Seattle to take. The best athlete was little Tavon Austin, an undersized speed receiver. A very lackluster draft.
The Seahawks had a HUGE impact on this draft. The success of the ‘Hawks and 9ers running the ball clearly has other teams thinking offensive line early in the draft. I think any year there are no top of the draft QBs, it definitely seems lackluster so I can agree with that feeling overall.
I enjoyed the draft. I do think the Seahawks made a major mistake, however.
Jordan Hill over Matt Barkley.
Jordan Hill – Replaceable 3-tech who is undersized and must overcome his inconsistent play shown on tape at Penn State. Jordan is easily replaced by Jay Howard or Clinton McDonald. Experiencing a DT injury is not season ending.
Matt Barkley – Is better than Brady Quinn simply due to the fact that he is an unknown. That buys him at least 3 games to win due to unfamiliarity. If Wilson goes down for any length of time, the 2013 season is over.
As yourself. Would you rather replace Jordan Hill with a random free agent versus replacing Russell Wilson with Matt Barkley.
Jordan Hill over Matt Barkley may be the undoing of 2013.
I find that a thoroughly bizarre opinion, even as a fan of Matt Barkley.
For starters, you’re totally writing off Jordan Hill. Given how much success this front office has had so far, I don’t know why anyone would do that. They chose him in round three, ahead of several other defensive tackles. It’s clear hyperbole to say he’s easily replaced by a guy who didn’t play a snap last year (Howard).
Secondly, who cares whether Barkley is better than Brady Quinn? We’re in danger of drifting into the realms of backup quarterback obsession again here. I really could not care less who holds a clipboard for Russell Wilson. It’s a severe irrelevance.
To suggest the decision to draft a potential starter (Hill) over a backup quarterback (Barkley) could be the undoing of an entire draft is frankly ridiculous. Sorry, but it is.
I understand the concern regarding backup QB discussion. I am glad Flynn is gone as well.
But I do find it strange how we can plan for an injury to Lynch without issue, yet we have no plan at all for Wilson.
See, the trouble with Flynn was his salary. Barkley would not have such an issue.
I just find it odd that we are so dismissive of the most important position, when someone touted as a top 5 pick is there for relatively nothing, and we object.
It seems… it seems arrogant.
I think it would be a mistake to view Michael as ‘planning for injury’. Here’s the key difference. Michael has been drafted to try and prevent a serious injury happening in the first place. By taking some of the work load away from Lynch, you keep the tone setter on the offense fresh. Meanwhile, when Lynch isn’t on the field, you’re not seeing any obvious downgrade because Michael is such a dynamic and punishing runner. Seattle will become a committee now. It’ll extend Lynch’s career in the process.
With Barkley, you’re taking a guy on the off chance an injury occurs. Having Barkley on the roster makes it no more or less likely that Wilson gets injured. You’re not helping with prevention here. You’re merely planning for a scenario that hopefully never happens.
The Seahawks had a big need at defensive tackle and drafted a player to fill that need. I can’t argue with that. It would not surprise me if one of Jordan Hill or Jesse Williams starts in place of Alan Branch this year. If they both spell that position, you’re still getting an impact. Matt Barkley would be stood on the sideline doing nothing.
And if it’s arrogant for the Seahawks to pass on Barkley, then the same can be said for the Niners who also passed one pick later. Or the Colts, who passed one pick before. Or the Bengals, who could use competition for Andy Dalton. Or the Saints. etc etc.
We simply didn’t need Matt Barkley.
I hope you’re right.
Loved the Simon, Williams, and Powell picks.
Thanks Rob, for being willing to have tough conversations. I appreciate the ability to express concerns and receiving constructive feedback.
And I appreciate the quality debate we have within this community. Nobody throws the toys out of the pram when a disagreement occurs. Instead, debate is held, a frank exchange of views and then we move on. That’s how it should be.
For all of us who don’t spell “color” with a u…
A “pram” is a baby stroller. 🙂
And isn’t it so much easier to say “pram”! 🙂
Very funny!
While we’re at it I want the French to give back the “c” if they’re not going to use it,,,,, “Cabernet Fran(c)”.
Thanks, my man!
“But I do find it strange how we can plan for an injury to Lynch without issue, yet we have no plan at all for Wilson.”
It’s worth pointing out that you are not comparing apples to apples when talking about RB and QB injury probability. The rules in the NFL have been altered to a laughable degree over the last decade, largely in the name of protecting the precious Quarterbacks. Running backs have received no such treatment, and still have a very short shelf-life, even with the recent trend towards platooning. After comparing Lynch’s insatiable lust for contact to Russell Wilson’s feet first slides and sideline escapes, there should be no question who is more likely to be injured.
So if a Wilson injury is logically less likely to occur than a Lynch injury, why should the same level of investment in a backup be at all warranted? Does a healthy, 25-year-old, non-smokers pay the the same life insurance premiums as an alcoholic septuagenarian with a family history of heart disease? Doing so would be quite foolish I think…
Totally agree Rob. I just think it would be a very difficult move to stomach for any front office. Passing on a starter even under the impression that Barkley could eventually be trade bait. It would be right around the range Seattle drafted its current starter and I don’t see it drastically improving the team.
And I think it’s clear Seattle wasn’t prioritizing a back up QB. They passed on alot of QBs today. Althought, I can imagine one of the reasons JS is upset is because the niners snagged Daniels right before our last two 7ths.
I agree that Seattle made it clear it is not a priority. If Wilson remains injury free, this conversation teeters on the edge of bizarre.
If Wilson gets hurt… the season is over. No one on this board or in Seattle, or Cleveland, or Kansas City would argue that.
It’d also over for GB, Pittsburgh, NO, Den, and I’d even argue the Patriots at this point.
Good point. It just seemed so… so easy. Almost like Aaron Rodgers in the 3rd round.
aaron rodgers was drafted to be the eventual replacement for Favre. Remember, Favre was turning 35 the year they drafted Rodgers and turned 38 in his last season with the packers. Rodgers was not drafted as depth, but as eventual replacement. Maybe a year or two before need, but value was there.
As his former coach, if PC felt Barkley could be as good as Rodgers, they would have drafted him instead of Michael. They clearly had him graded fairly low and they weren’t the only ones.
That’s quite an assumption, Belgaron. They didn’t draft a single quarterback this year, which suggests they simply weren’t looking in that direction. And why would they, to be fair? With Wilson and Quinn signed up? Plus I suspect Pete would want Barkley to go somewhere where he had a realistic chance of winning a job. He had zero shot of beating out Wilson. Barkley in Seattle just wasn’t meant to be and the truth is we’ll never know how highly they rated him.
But with Schneider having said he likes to draft a QB every year, you would have to think they’d include them on their board every year, at least the ones they like. Maybe I just have more respect for Rodgers skills but I think it’s highly unlikely any of these rookie QBs will ever put up numbers like Rodgers has, and if any of the GMs agreed, they would have been 1st round picks, if not top 10. If Barkley is able to do it, more power to him. He was certainly disrespected enough in the draft to use it as motivation.
At the same time, if Wilson is out, having Michael is good because we can have a heavily emphasized run game. With mostly running and our D, we can still be contenders and eek into the playoffs (especially good if Wilson is only injured for say 4 games, knock on wood). But if we draft Barkley, and Wilson gets injured for 4 games, I’m not sure Barkley helps at all. At least not this year.
Jordan Hill will play at least 400 snaps this year. Quinn/Barkely 0.
Could we not say the same for Lynch?
No, no we can’t.
If ‘Hawks could get 3 guys of Lynch’s caliber and rotate them, they would. They want to use the run game to punish other teams. With the last two drafts, they have communicated that the backup RB spots are pretty close to starting spots. Plus, Lynch has a back that kept him out of most of the between game practices last year. Depth at RB is really strategic not insurance.
If they could somehow clone RW even once and have a backup with the same skillset, they still wouldn’t rotate them because QB1 maintains continuity, momentum, and most important–timing.
To compare QB to RB is really applies and oranges.
I would love the backup QB spot to become a developmental asset role where they take middle rounders and develop them into guys they can trade for 1st or even 2nd rounders. I’m sure Schneider feels the same way but the draft is not a super market where you can find exactly what you want, it is more of a thrift store full of unique items where you only have the option of purchasing what it there. And you have to balance that plan against other strategies that may at times take precedence, like a need for a young DT.
I think there are two reasons there is a group of people pretty lukewarm on this draft (myself included). The first is it’ll be hard to be excited about a draft after last years. I know we all weren’t sold in April last year, but watching the success of last years class we may have wanted the same level of excitement. And the other is the weird way this draft fell. We had first and 2nd rnd projects lasting till day three and that doesn’t always happen (and rarely in the quantity that it did this year). It was hard to watch Seattle pass on alot of players we’d liked and talked about multiple times. Not to mention several fan favorites went to division rivals. I think the Rams and Niners had amazing drafts with alot of name recognition. Seattle did not have the same flare. To be honest it feels more like last years Frisco draft and I kind of expect similar impact from our rookies. With the exception of Michael.
I try to keep that in mind and hopefully that’s where my lukewarm feeling is coming from.
I sense a few people share that opinion, which brings me back to the point I make here. If Jesse Williams is taken at #56, Christine Michael in round three and Jordan Hill in round four, I suspect people would feel ‘better’ about the class. And the only difference is the order they were drafted. Williams would be a sufficient enough ‘name’ to get the fans approval in round two, Michael would be the exciting mid-rounder with tons of upside, and Hill would be seen as a value ‘why not?’ type pick in R4. That creates a positive perception. Because the order is different, for some reason there seems to be a slightly underwhelming feel to this. I’d plead with fans to look beyond that. Think of the group as a whole, not the order. And then add Percy Harvin to the group. You’ll feel better.
And I can’t stress enough how talented Christine Michael is. We could be looking at a major stud here. A guy who you want taking snaps off Marshawn Lynch. That’s special.
If I was being honest with myself, I’d probably say I was just bummed watching Lemonier go to the niners a few picks after the Seahawks pick. I loved the guy and I felt he’s perfect LEO. I saw Clem when I watched him play. For me I think it’s personal which is unfair.
A really adequate metaphor would be like waking up Christmas morning and Santa hadn’t brought you the gift you really wanted haha
I audibly celebrated the Christine Michael pick, which is the first time I’ve ever celebrated a Seahawks Draft pick. I liked Carpenter and Irvin, but was more surprised than overjoyed there. I was lukewarm on Okung (happy to admit it) and expected Thomas (was fairly happy there). I was intrigued by Russell Wilson and wondered with Wagner whether they really wanted Kendricks. I yelled, “NOOOOOOOOO” when they drafted Aaron Curry, and woke the neighbours.
Michael pleased me. Excited me. And for the first time I celebrated the pick.
” I yelled, “NOOOOOOOOO” when they drafted Aaron Curry”
LOL
Rob, it must be totally weird for you and Kip to do draft analysis with JS running the show vs. Ruskell
Not weird, more satisfying and exciting.
I like he pick as well the more I look at the tape. The guy’s burst is elite. I think he takes number two on the depth chart this year. That’s fine by me because Turbin seems capable of performing in spot duty and as a receiver in gimmick plays. Christine is the better pure runner.
Well, out of town and missed the entire draft week basically. For me, it’s as unacceptable as reality is truth. I looked at Seattle’s picks and didn’t mind them. Felt we did pretty good. Then I looked at the 49ers picks. Damn. Not happy at all at the momment and although I have tons of confidence in PCJS, this is truly a draft where time can only tell me otherwise. The 9ers outdrafted us this year IMO. Including Percy Harvin. RW, RO, and Turbin, I was excited about, right away. This year I liked the Michael pick. I feel as San Francisco had too many picks I would of been more excited about getting, especially in rounds where we had opportunities to take those same guys. Which means we would of still had Harvin, along with a McDonald or Dial, off the top of my head. And still could of picked up Williams. Really hope I’m wrong about this years draft. Go Hawks! Off to check out the Rams picks…
Sadly, if KC had taken Curry, we may have taken Sanchez.
I pined for Michael Crabtree at the time. Still can’t believe he made it to #10.
I feel you man.
I suspect the hype of rookie mini camps will erase all the pain 🙂
LOL, most definitely.
The problem is that we’ve all been over-valuing Williams apparently.
If he’d have been picked in the 2nd round, then we could assume we got roughly the player we thought he was. Since he was picked in the 5th though, and 32 teams all passed on him multiple times, means the Williams on the Seahawks is probably not the Williams we have in our heads. Even Schneider himself said there was a big dropoff after Jordan Hill at the DT position.
Therefore I can’t be as happy about getting Williams as I would have had the picks been re-arranged.
yet in the same vein, many were disappointed to watch the 9ers take Lemonier. Yet he too was passed on multiple times. It doesn’t make it a bad pick. we should be excited by the value.
It’s not “value” though. We were just wrong. Calling it value implies our valuation meant something relative to the valuation of 32 NFL team front offices.
He was picked where he was, because that’s how he was evaluated by NFL front offices. If even a couple teams thought he was a 2nd round talent, he probably wouldn’t get through the early parts of the 3rd round.
“It’s not “value” though. We were just wrong.”
So if that is the case, this idea of “value” is total crap and doesn’t actually exist. Every single player is, “picked where he was, because that’s how he was evaluated by NFL front offices.”
I think the injury situation has hurt Williams more than anything. Admittedly I don’t work in a NFL front office, but he’s not a 5th round talent. I see the point but I’m mainly referring to perception here.
Well, there must still be something we don’t know about the injury then cause he seems to act like it’s fine. Pete and John also acted like they weren’t worried about it.
What don’t we know?
I think it’s more of a case that they’re simply willing to roll the dice on it in round five. They’ve cut picks in that range before camp starts before, so it won’t be a big deal if Williams’ knees don’t make it. Worth the minimal risk. I read some teams didn’t have Williams on their board due to the knee concern.
It may very well be that he has something chronic or degenerative that could limit his career length. That kind of thing happens all the time. It may not lower a player’s quality but rather his longevity. That lowers the draft stock but doesn’t mean the guy cannot play.
He did run a 4.8 shortly after the knee surgery.
Would you apply the same analysis to Tom Brady being picked at #199 in the sixth round? He can’t be that good of a pick because so many other teams passed him over and over again throughout the draft? So if some fans of the Pats were extremely happy with the pick at the time, they shouldn’t have been, because Brady was clearly better “in their heads” than he was in reality?
The true reality is that the draft’s history is littered with athletes that pro personnel guys missed. Jesse Williams may just a recent example. Or not. We’ll see. But it is not a foregone conclusion that those who think Williams was a first or second round talent were wrong.
This is true with any player. Seattle has Wagner, Wilson, Sherman and Chancellor. All of these guys would have been selected in the first round in draft do overs. The trick is to be better than other organizations at finding them. Plus they have Okung, Thomas, and Irvin who all would have maintained their first round status in a do over. These two lists combined are why PC and Schneider are improving every year as they’ve demonstrated that this ability was not a random occurrence. They may have very well selected four 1st rounders again this year. Time will tell.
Let me try an anaolgy:
Suppose you’re an Eagles fan in Summer 2012, and you’re told that next year you’ll draft Barkley.
Would you be happier if you were told that it will be in the 1st round, or if you were told it will be in the 4th?
If you’re told that it will be in the 4th, then you would figure: “between now and then, people are going to figure out that he’s not nearly as good as I think he is now”, and you won’t be nearly as excited.
The only difference between that reaction to Barkley, and our reaction to Williams is that we now know why GM’s grew cold on Barkley.
PS – thanks to all of you on this site for the excellent draft coverage. It sure makes draft weekend a lot more fun.
I love the Michael pick regardless of why it was made. It’s never a bad idea to add elite play makers to a roster. I just wonder if the emphasis on the rb position this year is at all a reaction to the possible negative impact the ” helmet as a weapon” could have on marshawn this year? Of all the backs in the league that stupid rule has the potential to impact lynch the most, possibly reducing his effectiveness? Do any of you think this was a part of the decision process??
It’s never a bad idea to add elite playmakers to a roster, especially if you don’t move up. For all the “haters”, we turned pick #56 into Christine Michael and Jesse Williams (used the 5th and 6th round picks from Baltimore when we traded from 56 to 62). It’s two potential high level starters for a late 2nd round pick. Phenomenal.
No, if anything it’s more of a reaction to how many practices Lynch missed between games last year.
I am TOTALLY Stoked about our full draft this year. I would take Harvin over Irvin any day of the week, or Carpenter. This years draft has me excited just like the 2010 draft.
Now, that being said, rounds 4 through 7 were a head scratcher for me, but purely because we were in the realm of people I have no clue over, and there were a few players that I did know some names of. I love the Michael pick (now that I know more about him) and the Hill pick also. (for the same reason).
I love our 1st round pick most of all however.
at the end of the day, how many starters do we need to get out of a draft? I would say we got at least 3 or 4 from this one. That’s pretty damn good right? Harvin, Michael, Hill, x factor from the other 8 guys?
I’m hoping one of the DTs can be good enough to start at 3 tech. Other than that, there’s probably no other starters unless it’s replacing guy leaving for free agency later on.
Given they only lost two starters during the off season (a DT and a LB), that’s probably the best they could hope for without a R1 pick. They filled the DT need and will let youth and scheme solve the hole at LB.
I guess I should have said “contributor” vs starter, I can’t imagine we won’t be using more than 2 guys this year.
If you factor in a longer window (more years out), they may have found 5-6 starters or even more if those Oline projects pan out.
Great summary, Rob, as always. I agree that the Ravens, 49’ers and Jets all had grade-A drafts. Let’s not forget that Seattle’s first round draft choice was Percy Harvin, basically the equivalent of drafting Adrian Peterson or Calvin Johnson #1. Percy was the best player in the draft this year….Joeckel and Fisher not even close. With Harvin, Winfield, Avril and Bennett added to another killer PCJS no-name draft, and the Seahawks have had the best off-season of any team in the league.
I think anyone upset with this draft need only remember the consensus feeling leading up to the draft that this team had no perceivable holes. This is the place we want to be people! JSPC did a great job setting this roster and positioning themselves to select BPA, build quality depth and even plan ahead. That’s why Pitt and Bal are lauded each and every year.
We selected a high-upside RB to protect Lynch and and 2 quality DL to add young and talented depth to our depleted line. Add in new blood at WR, CB and Joker-TE, and I’m not sure how anyone can be disappointed or confused. Oh yeah, did I mention perhaps the most physical and dynamic WR in the football…Percy Harvin (as a result of our Round 1 pick)??
Reality people.
BTW – I echo this entire community’s thought: major props and thanks to Rob and Kip for the incredible work and content on this site. Amazing how many players today I was familiar with as a result of your research, insight and analysis. Thank you.
“I think anyone upset with this draft need only remember the consensus feeling leading up to the draft that this team had no perceivable holes. This is the place we want to be people!”
Nailed it.
I still think we passed on some super talented guys. I think the rest of the division gained some ground on us. I still have the Seahawks as the team to beat. I don’t like the feeling, of, really liking some of the 49ers picks. Can’t stand it. That’s what bugs me the most. I thought we schooled the division the last few years. I hope that doesn’t prove true.
I think the draft was solid if not spectacular. Seattle found depth at DT while incorporating a WR and TE. They also managed to snag possibly the next big thing at RB. Job well done.
My opinion is that people take information they hear repeatedly a little too close to heart, and so when those players aren’t taken by Seattle, they immediately assume it wasn’t the best decision. I’m done trying to figure out Pete and John on draft day, it’s a waste of time. But their selections have certainly not been.
Alot of disdain over not selecting Arthur Brown, which is understandable, but also a tad premature. Why did you want Arthur Brown? Because he filled a need, or because one of your favorite draft websites that covers your favorite team ranked him highly? Let’s be honest people, some of you take what Kip and Rob say as the end all be all, and that is why you are disappointed. If they hadn’t made much mention of him, you wouldn’t be that upset.
I really liked the Jesse Williams pick. He is going to challenge Red Bryant for that 5 tech spot if Red can’t stay healthy. Him and Hill should help solidify the run defense.
At this point, trust Pete and John. They have done a remarkable job and will continue to do so. Go hawks.
Just a hunch, but what probably also drives the Arthur Brown feeling is the fact Baltimore drafted him. The Ravens nearly always draft smart, and were also in the market for a Ray Lewis replacement. That probably factors in here a little too. “If he’s good enough for them…” type of thing. Brown is a fine player but it’s obvious now the Seahawks weren’t even really looking at linebackers in the draft.
I don’t want it to seem like I’m calling anyone out per se, but I’m just a tad annoyed hearing “oh they could’ve gotten better value here, or they should’ve done this there” and nobody really knows. They’ve earned my trust.
From the little bits I’ve heard from Carroll it sounds to me like players at OLB and LEO are going to be interchangeable this year. Irvin, Avril, Clemons and the new kid from Harding whose name is escaping me are all going to play SAM from time to time. I assume KJ would move to WIL when that happens. There is also the USC LB crew, Winston Guy and Winfield who should see time at WIL. I really like the UDFA Wilkins at that spot too.
Is this the sense you guys are getting too?
Almost forgot Toomer. Good athelete. Should fit right in at SAM if he progressed this last year.
Baltimore replaced an old player that was elite. Arthur Brown will probably never reach Ray Lewis’s level of play. Even though they did find a young replacement, doubtful they found the next Ray Lewis. They just found their next inside LB.
I feel the same way about Frisco replacing Dashon with Reid.
Baltimore replaced aging elite players that are going to the Hall of Fame with young unknowns.
Frisco replaced proven players with unproven players.
Replacing talent is important, but they didn’t necessarily upgrade their team. They didn’t necessarily downgrade it either. I don’t consider either of their drafts particularly great other the finding possible quality replacements at positions of need. If any of those players don’t work out, they’re hurting.
I don’t even like Arthur Brown. He looked stiff and lacking instincts when I watched his tape. He reminds me of Zach Brown. I loved the Wagner pick last year.
I’m really excited for TE Luke Wilson. He was very highly regarded before a high ankle sprain killed his senior season. He has very good hands and is good running the seam route. 6/5″ 250 lbs and was clocked at 4.46 at his pro day 40yd. He also put up great numbers on everything else including a 38″ verticle jump and mid 20’s on the bench. Carroll seems to think he has the frame to put on more weight and be a good blocker too. More than just a Joker type. He could be a real steal.
put on more weight? Damn, how heavy do we need a TE to be? 250 seems huge to me.
250 is perfect for a Joker. But prototypical is like 275… I think
A lot of the better blockers are in the 265 range. 250 is pretty average though. I think this team puts a premium on blocking so a little more to anchor with wouldn’t hurt. Especially if he has the frame to put it on naturally without getting bulky.
I share your excitement for Luke Willson! From a purely measurable standpoint, he is as good as anyone in this draft. See for yourself:
40 yard dash
Tyler Eifert – 4.68
Luke Willson – 4.57 (took his high time since “unofficial” times tend to be more generous)
225 lbs bench
Eifert – 22 Reps
Willson – 23 Reps
Vertical Jump
Eifert – 35.5″
Willson – 38″
Broad Jump
Eifert – 119″
Willson – 122″
3 Cone Drill
Eifert – 6.92 sec
Willson – 7.04 sec
20 Yard Shuttle
Eifert – 4.32 sec
Willson – 4.28 sec
Just don’t look at his production
He only had eight catches last year, but I think it was on limited playing time as he struggled coming back from the ankle sprain. I know very little about him, but apparently he was a finalist for the best tight end in the nation in preseason.
From the sounds of him talking about it (and he was a Mackey Award candidate), he was never right the entire year and only started getting close this past year. I figure with him, Fells, and McCoy battling for two spots, we have some flexibility, potential, and diversity there.
Don’t forget McGrath, who in training camp and preseason last year looked like an exceptional receiving target, soft strong hands and an uncanny ability to get the ball in a crowd, which gave him a bit of perceived chemistry with Wilson. I guess his measurables weren’t elite, but if his longsnapping and physical talents are better after a year on PS and signed to a futures contract with NFL training staff, I could see him as a serious consideration for a roster spot.
Assuming 9ol, 3RB/2FB, and 2 QB, it leaves 9 spots for WR/TE position… Likely 5/4 or 6/3, but always possibly 5/3 with 10 OL.
When all is said and done, we will have some seriously high end potential being dropped at the WR/TE position come final cuts.
Willson has mentioned he is a “blocking” TE and very good at it. Makes sense to add a TE with that size that blocks well to a team that ran more than any other NFL team last year.
On the jets.
What if they let Sanchez burn out next year. Build Geno up. Let the team get some chemistry. Then drop Sanchez and Rex Ryan at the same time. Let Geno come in with some momentum. Everyone will say “Look at Wilson and how much he improved because he had actual game reps!” But he also had a complete, united team around him. They were ready for a franchise QB. The Jets aren’t. They’ll get better picks next year and they’ll have more chemistry and Geno will have more experience. Let it be a competition. Let the best man win, but I think Rex Ryan won’t see it that way. He may be too proud to give up on Sanchez.
But yeah, great job idzik. Shit, there goes another year where Schneider doesn’t win GM of the year.
I don’t think they can start Sanchez after everything that’s happened. Not unless Geno Smith lays a major egg in camp. They need to move on. Geno might save Rex Ryan’s job.
That would be the best case scenario for the Jets. Firing Rex Ryan after 2013 would presumably mean new QB coach and new OC, which could hinder Smith’s development. Those sorts of disruptions don’t seem conducive to the development of young QBs (see Alex Smith). The Jets’ receiving corps is awful, but at least the secondaries in the AFC East are nothing to write home about. Still, unless Smith turns out to be a transcendent talent, he’ll need some weapons in order to develop into a franchise QB.
They have such a lack of talent on that offense, Geno might be better off letting Gerrard start until he learns the offense and they add some players.
I have to admit I was chuckling (cursing?) every time San Fran took someone touted by Rob. Made it seem like they followed the blog more closely than I do. They even went and signed Marquardt as an UDFA.
I can’t complain about the Hawks draft. The picks they gave up for Harvin were clearly less than he’s worth as a player. Had Harvin been draft eligible, he certainly would have been drafted ahead of Tavon Austin (and possibly #1 overall), and the Seahawks gave up much less than it would have taken to move up that far in the draft. Obviously the opportunity cost due to his salary makes the total calculation different.
Fans and media personalities have been wondering how Michael is going to fit into the offense. In the short term, he’s taking some of the load off Lynch, and that’s fine, but you don’t spend a 2nd rounder on a strictly rotational running back. The Seahawks drafted Lynch’s replacement. With big raises coming up for Wilson and Sherman, the Seahawks will have to make some difficult decisions. Lynch will be 28 in 2014 and may not have a lot of tread left on the tires. I’d not be shocked to see him released after next year.
This team also now has a serious glut of defensive linemen. They usually keep nine on their active roster, right? Assuming no UDFA sneak onto the roster, they’ll still need to cut/PS 4 from Williams, Hill, McDaniel, Mebane, Scruggs, Howard, Bennett, Powell, Avril, Clemons (PUP), Irvin, Bryant and McDonald. Even if they’re able to keep all the ones they really want, playing time will be tough to come by. I don’t think we’ll see much of the rookies this year.
It’s a similar situation at WR. Harper looks too raw to be anything other than the #5 receiver. I’m sure he’ll get lots of special teams work.
Many of the late picks seemed to have analogs on the roster already. Ware is practically a Mike Robinson clone – a converted QB who will move from RB to FB despite being better at receiving than blocking. The Sweezy experiment is being repeated. Seymour has the same positional flexibility as McQuistan.
We might feel bad about this draft in a year, but much better 2 or 3 seasons down the road.
Just a thought here, but I’m wondering if some of the odd positional selections were specifically because they’re hoping to be able to cut some of the higher priced players in a year or two.
Who are our highest paid players?
Lynch … drafted Michael
Rice … drafted Harper
Miller … drafter Luke Willson
If any of those 3 draftees “hit” then Lynch/Rice/Miller could get the axe after this year. The other top picks were DTs (and a CB which might be pre-emptive for Sherman), which was arguably our only real hole.
hmm, good point.
I think he’s more of a replacement for Browner to be honest. I don’t know why everyone seems to be freaking out about paying Sherman just because Revis got a big payday. By the time we have to pay Sherman isn’t there suppose to be a new TV deal and a bigger bump in salary cap? Seem to remember some tweet by Clemons to that effect.
I agree about Sherman. The guy is a top 10 defensive player in the league. The only reason to let a guy like that get away is if you completely screw up your cap. Not gonna happen here.
I’m not sure about that. I don’t think taking a receiver in the 4th means anyone has to be cut, or a little known TE in the later rounds means Miller’s days are numbered. And I think there’s more chance of Santa Claus shaving his beard than Seattle cutting Lynch in the next year or two.
Then Santa is beardless in New York.
Teams are learning how to navigate the waters of RB in a passing league. RB now stands for Refresh Back.
Lynch and Miller…no.
Lynch will play out this contract and see if he has anything left in the tank. RB1 is not going to be an every down starter role, it is a committee to wear down other teams. They will try to keep the cupboard full of talent there, especially now that you can get great backs well outside of the 1st round (probably because they only last 3 years on average).
Miller’s base rate drops next year and the year after, his contract was actually very reasonable overall, it was just designed to have a big payout this year (by design as they clearly expected to have room on the cap this year). I think they expect to carry 3 great TEs every year.
Rice and Harper…maybe. They could still try to re-work Rice’s deal but he does have a huge cap number. We’ll see how it plays out.
Think there is a good chance the coaching staff sees how this WR groups works with Wilson, and if everything is phenomenal, tries to find a way to restructure/package all the essential components together. something like: “wilson, you are worth 18 million a year, Harvin 11 million, Rice 8 million, Tate, 6 million, but we can’t pay that. We’d love you to all stay together, but the most we can do is Wilson 15, Harvin 8, Rice 6, and Tate 5. We’ll guarantee you all three years if you want to stay together, otherwise, we have some very hard decisions to make.”
Yep, it’s almost like they set up a “competition” for cap dollars (this is tongue in cheek, you know PC/JS love that aspect of it).
Interesting tidbit about Chris Harper, apparently he has a Pac-10 connection. He started is collegiate career at Oregon in 2008, as a QB. He then switched to WR and transferred to Kansas State.
One of the worst QBs I have ever seen at Oregon, but man was that guy an athletic force. I am anxious to see him in an environment where his athleticism is not head & shoulders above his teammates (and if he was unique at Oregon, you can only imagine how much more athletic he was at KSU- a great program, but largely very average athletically). I think Carroll’s competitive environment will be ideal for Harper.
“I’m not going to pretend I have anything to offer on Luke Wilson, Ryan Seymour, Ty Powell or Jared Smith.”
But … but … you’re Seahawks Draft Blog!
I actually think that the extremely low profiles and small school status of the guys in these last picks also really contributed to any feelings of letdown with the draft this year. They weren’t on anybody’s mocks, for the most part. How can you get excited about a guy you have heard nothing about, _and_ there isn’t even much out there in draftland?
Besides, if Rob and Kip don’t know them, they don’t really exist, do they?
🙂
The Hawks have a very good scouting department. Powell and Seymour were not unknowns and wilson was on the TE watch list. Draft Scout had Powell on a hot list.
Powell and Smith I thought were interesting atheletes from the combine. Didn’t know where to rank them because of their schools though. I never mocked them, but they were on a shortlist. Smith as a DT, Powell as a Leo.
they got some legit prospect talent on the O line at the end of the draft, and I’d not be shocked at all that one of those guys is the starter at RT after Breno’s contract is up. Not sure why it’s viewed as an endorsement of Breno that they drafted OL in the late rounds when it’s been argued by many all off season that this staff is great at finding OL talent in the late rounds and coaching them up. It can’t work both ways.
Also unsure why some are so dismissive of critiques of Breno as “scapegoating” when it’s been brought to attention many times that there are legit sources showing Breno is not what we’d call a quality player. One may disagree with those sources, but to dismiss it as ‘scapegoating’ is a bit silly, when the reasons for that sentiment have been posted here many times by several posters.
With the greatest respect, JW, I am yet to see a credible source offer a legitimate argument against Giacomini. I’ve seen several references to one single rankings system that also listed Earl Thomas as the 29th best safety in the NFL. So forgive me for viewing them with a great deal of cynicism. The approach they use is also heavily influenced by penalty yardage, which plagued Giacomini in the first few weeks of last season. Nobody would deny that he was a liability in the first few weeks for the sheer number of flags he collected. Once he’d righted that issue, he played at a very high level — in the run game and defending against some of the leagues best pass rushers.
I am yet to see any credible argument that details why he isn’t one of the better right tackles in the NFL. And I would argue the fact Seattle completely ignored the offensive tackle position until their final pick in the seventh round suggests the team also believes he is a legit starter.
They drafted one tackle with the final pick in the 7th round and passed on a multitude of talented tackles in the middle rounds. How is that not an endorsement of Giacomini?
UDFA John Lotulelei, LB UNLV – 5’11, 233
Thoughts on this pickup? Isn’t this the brother or cousin of Star (I could be wrong) and one of the leading tacklers in unlv history? Might be a solid flyer
I’m more excited about Wilkins from Old Dominion at weak side LB. He plays like a Seattle LB more than 90% of the drafted guys. Sideline to sideline speed. Very good knifing through traffic and blitzing off the edge. Pretty raw though. He had a visit with the Hawks a few weeks ago. It must have gone pretty well.
its not his brother
I watched him for UNLV once just because of the name… I was intrigued to find out if he was related to Star. He played well. A guy who has a shot.
No relation.
I know, but at the time I didn’t know which is why I tuned into the game.
lol, ok, I see.
It doesn’t surprise me at all that Bray went undrafted. In the tape we saw of him from looking at Cordarelle Patterson and Justin Hunter he looks like John Skelton 2.0 but with Ryan Leaf’s personality.
Scott, on the other hand, is very surprising. He must have been terrible in interviews.
I really like the draft, and agree on the issue of order affecting our opinions. At various points in the draft I was sad we passed on Williams, Ty Powell and Scott. But Schneider ended up getting both Williams and Powell later on and everybody passed on Scott.
Overall I think this was a boring but good draft.
I honestly wonder if Scott did not have the same concussion red flags as Ryan Swope.
I think if Patton or Swope were selected instead of Harper we’d be doing cartwheels. It was a strange draft; we ‘thought’ DT, OT, OL, WR were our biggest needs – we got two DT’s, an ‘unknown’ WR and we seemed to neglect the OL and OT’s (until 6/7 round). To the more casual fan, the RB seemed to be a luxury pick. But this is the beauty of a well managed team with incredible depth. Our offseason has been spectacular and and is filled with guys that fill dual roles (Winfield, Bennett, Avril) so our draft needs changed and we are able to see some calculated ‘flier’ picks like Christine. AWESOME! I’m excited to see what Cable does with our offensive line to really put this draft over the top. To the UDFA phase – Rob, amazing job with this blog- thank you!!
Player A:
40 – 4.55
Vertical – 35.5 inches
Broad Jump: 116 inches
20 yard shuttle – 4.39 seconds
Player B:
40 – 4.57 seconds
Vertical Jump – 36 inches
Broad Jump – 115 inches
20 yard shuttle – 4.50 seconds
Player A is Chris Harper, Player B? That would be DeAndre Hopkins.
Very similar measurables. Hopkins has better tape in my opinion. On the other hand, Harper had Colin Klein throwing to him and Klein is pretty awful at throwing the football in my opinion. Also, Harper has only been playing WR for a couple of seasons after switching over from QB (started college career at Oregon).
Chris Harper looks the part, that’s for sure. He reminds me in some ways of Golden Tate. He’s good at making tough catches in traffic or coming back for the ball and then making guys miss in space. Has the build to be a good blocker too.
I think the Golden Tate comparison is a really good one. I had thought the Hawks would look for a Rice complement/replacement to groom, but it seems that there were just a lot more Tate-type options that presented better value as the draft went on.
Who has a contract issue up first? Tate.
Everything I heard about Chris Harper during the week training at the Senior Bowl was good. Then the Senior bowl happened and we saw why the QB in this draft dropped as far as they did. Its because of there play no one really got to see a lot on the WR there. What I will say is Harper never went up or down in all the mock drafts I looked at and somehow I think that says a lot.
One thing to highlight with most of these players is that most of them are position- or assignment-versatile. And all will contribute to special teams, if they stick.
Some of the more obvious examples: Christine Michael can spell Lynch, but could also fit in short-yardage or third downs. Chris Harper can play slot, split, or flanker. Jesse Williams could go 1-tech, or out to 5-tech. Luke Willson has the speed of a move-TE, but the size for in-line. Spencer Ware could be a FB, or a 3rd down back, or even a regular RB. Ryan Seymour plays all over the OL. And Ty Powell could be a Leo, but might see time as a LB.
This front office made choices looking for guys who can fit in multiple spots. They don’t have holes to fill, they don’t have to get specialists, they don’t even have to get starters. This was a luxury draft, a team that got some insurance, bought a few lottery tickets, and is gearing up for a big year.
Jesse Williams is a 3-tech. Per Pete
You’re right–my bad. The general point of the post remains sound, I think.
To be fair to Pete, it’s probably politically correct to say he’s the 3tech. But his physical ability could fit any of our 3 big positions. He absolutely could play the big 5 tech role that PC likes as well, but PC, politically, can’t say he’s a good fit at 3 tech or 5 tech. Instead PC says “initially we’ll look at him at 3tech and then see what else he can do”
by politically correct, i mean politically necessary, as far as a happy locker room goes. But in reality, Red is patently aware that he can’t perform below the level of his pay for 2 years in a row.
I think Schneider getting the call from his wife is what perturbed him a little bit to be honest. I mean seriously, on one of the biggest work days of the year your wife calls you in the middle of a press conference? At most I would recommend the wife simply send a text saying “cant wait to hear about your day!” or just wait to hear from him.
Schneider also appeared visibly moved while talking about the former employee with ALS making the last two picks. I’ll chalk it up to a couple of swinging emotions rather than frustration at missing out on any players.
Guess our R1 and R2 picks in 2014 are going to be OT and WR if we don’t extend Tate.
The most frustrating thing in this draft is how much time I spent watching/reading about players who ultimately are now our division rivals…
C. Lemonier
Q. Patton
M. Lattimore
B.J. Daniels
R. Swope
S. Bailey
I would have loved for any of these guys to have been selected by the ‘Hawks, but now I will be hoping they get cut or just fail miserably… Sad.
Harbaughs sneaky self probably frequents this site, lol. Two much coincidence. What other media in the world did a piece on Patton, not many.
In that case, hi Jim!!
Yup, what’s up Jim? You should at least cut us all a check. LOL
The draft that scares me the most, I think Rob will feel the same once he analyzes all the team drafts, is Green Bay. Upgraded their front seven with a quality player to improve their run defense. And drafted two quality RBs to upgrade their run game along with a couple of OTs. They showed a real commitment to having a quality run game.
Aaron Rodgers and that passing attack with a run game is damn scary. If Green Bay can stop the run, or improve their ranking by even 10 spots, they are going to be damn hard to deal with.
Of the power playoff teams, Green Bay upgraded their team the most. If that run games gets going, Green Bay’s offense will be amongst the most difficult in the league to stop.
They had a solid draft. However, the defensive coaching staff are stuck in 1999. The way San Francisco embarrassed that defense in the playoffs was very encouraging. I’m not sure Datone Jones alone will be the answer. They need to get with the times and realise the read option as a wrinkle needs to be defended.
It wasn’t just the read option, they got run over by Adrian Peterson as well. I think Matt Forte did well against them. Their run defense was pathetic. 26th in Yards per attempt.
My bigger concern is if they get a run game going. You don’t think Green Bay with a run game would make them the most potent offense in the league? I really think it would. If they can punch it into the end zone on the ground and eat clock by pounding the ball, they will be seriously dangerous.
They were 20th in yards with 1700 total. Only had 9 rushing TDs. Averaged 3.9 yards per attempt. You could pretty much set up to protect against the pass and not worry about their run game. Imagine if they boost the ranking into the top 15 or 10.
Possibly but what I would say is… I think they’ve been forced into this a little with the loss of Jennings and Driver. They aren’t quite as deep at receiver now, even if they still have some good guys. And maybe they’re hoping the run can pick up some of the slack. They’ve been a tough team without a running game previously so I’m not too concerned they’ll be that much better. There’s really only two teams that worry me in the NFC and that’s San Fran and Atlanta.
I have trouble worrying about Atlanta. They don’t seem like a formidable team. I feel as though our loss was more inexperience, travel, and desperation on their part.
Frisco is a worry given they’re the division champ. I don’t think they got better this draft. If anything they stood pat, which is still pretty damn good. But we can handle what they bring. If Smith gets hurt again, they’re going to have major problems on defense.
Green Bay is the team that seems most improved. Driver was old. The loss of Jennings will hurt. But Aaron Rodgers is like Brady or Manning, he’ll make his receivers look like superstars, not vice versa. Give that offense a legitimate run game, they will overtax a defense. Rodgers is fairly mobile as well.
We’ll see how it works out. Green Bay with a top 15 run game worries me more than Frisco or Atlanta.
Flip the coin here. Now their probly saying “now that the hawks have a passing game….yikes!”
Flip the coin here. Now their probly saying “now that the hawks have a passing game….yikes!”
Tharold Simon. This guy is my absolute favorite pick made by JS/PC in Seattle so far and it isn’t even close. And he doesn’t even have a guarantee to make the team, let alone get playing time.
But it doesn’t matter. The guy is a freaking Browner/Sherman doppelganger, long, lean, fluid and mean. The guy fits Carroll’s MO lika glove. He should soak up knowledge from this coaching staff and it appears Sherman has already taken a liking for the kid.
There is quite possibly no better place for Tharold to come in and learn the game then Seattle. There are things he needs to improve on, recovery and becoming a better playmaker chief among them. Yet the solution is simply. Sherm didn’t increase his level of athleticism from college to pros that made his flaws decrease- no, he became one of the league’s best at studying film and understanding receivers tendencies. In doing this, Sherm has become one of the league’s best ball hawks and cover guys.
I believe Tharold will learn this off-field skill under Carroll and the LOB, playing sparingly in his RS year, breaking out soon after.
This is the first late round pick I have ever truly been afraid to bet against achieving starting caliber play. It just seems too perfect.
High hopes, yes, but I cannot WAIT to see this kid develop. Who knows what happens, but if he buys in and takes to the coaching staff, the sky is the limit.
There was a handful of CB’s I liked and he was one of them. Really liked this pick as well. Go Hawks!
Thank you Rob for your insights, I have calmed down a little after reading your thoughts, but not completely.
As an fan said earlier it isn’t just a matter of pretending that the Hawks drafted Williams at #56 to make me feel better. It is knowing that there is an injury that caused him to not be as good as advertised. I am not as enthusiastic about him knowing he was passed up because of an injury.
You can count on SF knowing that the Hawks wanted McDonald, and they traded up before the Hawks pick. If I am not mistaken, the picks are known to every team several picks before they are announced publicly. Every team knows who is going to be picked several picks ahead. You know Harbough had to be smiling when he made that pick right before Seattle. That caused Seattle to trade out and buy time to figure their next move, thus missing on Arthur Brown. I am still mad about that.
I am not a fan of Chris Harper, and think Patton would have been the better pick. Looking at the videos of each player, Patton makes more difficult catches in traffic, and fewer drops. I would have been a lot happier about the draft if Patton had been chosen instead.
You can’t count on SF knowing jack squat. Or any team. Every pick is not known. Draft security on picks is very, very tight. Where did something like that even enter your mind? Every pick is hidden so teams can’t jump in front of other teams. It’s all kept quiet until the pick is made. Do you really think draft security is that light? Where do these notions even come from. What do you think that countdown clock is for? So we can all sit there watching the clock tick down? It’s time to make the pick and call it in. Not time so every team knows what you’re doing.
You have no idea if we wanted Vance. We may have fooled them into thinking we wanted Vance, when they were really there for Wilson. TE wasn’t a pressing need for us.
There were TE’s I liked better than McDonald. He didn’t seem like a natural pass catcher to me. He reminded me a lot of the guy SF let go.
Uh, you don’t see the Harbaugh connection here. We were on the phone with Baltimore. We were not going to trade with them. Harbaugh to Harbaugh pass of info. Next thing you know….. SF trades in front of us and takes the most athletic TE on the board.
Lol
CoLOLusion!
BJ Daniels whas chosen by SF only to be used on the practice squad as the Russel Wilson clone for their defense to practice against.
Yup.
The 49ers drafted a lot of big names, but they consistently drafted players I felt were over-valued in media circles compared where I had them in my own tape breakdowns and analysis. I really liked the Lemonier and BJ Daniels picks, but both are high risk. As much as I like Daniels, if he’s a career NFL backup that’s a big win for him. Lemonier is good prospect for Seattle but I don’t think he’d fit the 49ers defense quite as well. We’ll see. Lemonier is very boom/bust, too.
Reid? He’s okay. Solid, safe, blase. Above average player, but nothing we have to worry about.
Carradine? He doesn’t really have an NFL skillset as a pass rusher yet and isn’t some rare athlete. If they are lucky, he’s Carlos Dunlap 2.0, and Dunlap is merely a good player. FWIW I liked Dunlap a lot more when he came out. I feel generous with a Dunlap comp.
McDonald? He has good upside, but I’m not on that bandwagon. He’s got a long list of problems.
Lemonier? I like it. Hacky homerun swing but a smart gamble. Not sure how he’ll fit their 3-4 OLB role.
Patton? I haven’t made it much of a secret that I never thought much of him, and it looks like he might have been a bit of a media hype job to an extent. I do like his intangibles though. Deep down, I’m a little scared of this pick.
Lattimore? He’s Marshawn Lynch with less athleticism and horrendous injury risk. Like Lynch he’s a contact magnet and rarely has big runs. He’s a GREAT person with awesome intangibles, not the kind of person that’s smart to bet against. That said, I thought he was over-rated pre-injury. He’s about as contact intensive as Marshawn Lynch is. I wouldn’t feel great about Lynch if he had the injury background Lattimore does. And Lynch has significantly more physical talent, too.
Dial? I like it. Wish I knew more, but what little I’ve seen of Dial he looks like a rock-solid Red Bryant type.
BJ Daniels was the only pick they made that had me cursing. And he’s a backup QB.
The 49ers draft has potential. I guess I am just reacting to them drafting mostly players that I felt were overvalued in the media.
I don’t feel like Frisco upgraded positions of need. They found possible replacement talent. Not that they needed upgrades as they were in the Super Bowl. Is there a guarantee Jordan Reid performs as well as Dashon Goldson? Is Carradine going to anchor their line or provide better rush defense or pass rush? Will Lattimore even see the field with Gore and the other RBs? Is Vance going to be better than Delanie Walker? Lemonier going to upgrade their pass rush immediately? I don’t see it. SF draft was much like ours: trying to add quailty depth to a deep roster and adding a replacement for a single position.
Green Bay’s draft was scary though. They are looking to seriously upgrade their run game. If they succeed, that’s going to be a problem for the NFC. Green Bay with a run game and an improved front seven makes an already formidable team more dangerous.
I really liked Green Bay’s draft too. Three of their first four picks were home runs, IMO.
From a fantasy perspective I did not like this draft. One of my keeper teams has Rogers, Lynch, Cobb and Jordy. A GB running game improvement and a Seattle time-share running game waters it down a bit.
That said, I beleive they were very good moves for the teams.
One way for GB to improve their “D” is ball control. Works for us right?
San Francisco’s draft doesn’t scare me at all. Carradine get’s washed out easily and Lemonier is a rush linebacker only at this point. Boldin scares me more than anybody they have acquired. and speaking of Boldin, that is who Harper has been compared to.
It’s easy to argue they truly went BPA.
Ooph. I just saw that SF got Luke Marquardt in UDFA. Ouch.
I am glad someone else said this. I did not find the 49ers draft that spectacular. A lot of risk with reward players, but fits since the team is stacked already.
The Lattimore pick is ‘ok’ because he was snagged in the 4th, but with two major injuries there is a reason he was there for them in the 4th.
The Patton pick I like and it is between Patton and Tank for my favorite picks they ran away with.
The Rams draft included players I really really liked and the fact they added a WR in Bailey that will probably be very consistent and great piece next to Tavon Austin makes me feel a bit nervous. Good tandem.
The Cards added some interesting talent and I felt their draft was pretty good too. I think they got a great pick out of Okafor with their 103rd pick, and I like Andre Ellington with 187th. Swope I really like too and kind of wanted to see him in a Hawks uni, but realize he is more a slot WR and Hawks are good on that.
This must be a great darft class for the seahawks.
Considering the JSPC record i can already see that this draft class may be our best ever other then maybe the 2012(can’t bit Russel)
It has all the makings of a perfect draft as follows :
1. I am disapointed that most of the players i liked and where available were not picked. (Hunt, Swope, Kelce…even Patton)
2. Only 1 player i was routing for was picked…and at the 5th. (the Monsterrrrrrrrrrrr)
3. I can’t understand half of the positions picked at the round they were picked.
4. I can’t understand how we didnt pick what looked like needs like WLB or OL earlier and went for better known names.
5. I seriously think that SF, Rams and Cards did a hell of a lot better.
All the above are clear indicators that JSPC did it again. I always felt that way after thier drafts only to be so very very very pleasently surprized when the year ended.
It’s good to know they havnwt changed and i can now start playing “who will be the player considered the greatest steal of the hawks in this draft ?”
Looking at it like that – Suddenly Harper is breeming with potential, Jesse at the 5th – oh my god what a still, Hill with his 9 first year sacks, etc. etc. etc.
It’s good to be able to count on stability. This draft seems a stable typical JSPC draft.
Damn those 9er’s and thier embalished list of great names.
Long live the FO.
Let’s play ball.
If the defensive lines upgrades work, we’re going to cause major headaches for our opponents. That’s what hurt us last year in the playoffs.
I am ‘blaming’ your Rob and Kip in my bad feeling after this draft.
Since I was daily visitor of this site I fallen in love with some players that were discissed here and were available for us multiply number of times (Quinton Patton, Ryan Swope, Corey Lemonier, Travis Kelce, Ryan Otten, Khaseem Greene) but instead we drafter bunch of anonymous. And the worst part is than many of those names went to our divisional rivals. I hope SB will heal me.
Thanks you for you work.
Not sure if anyone has seen this, but pretty compelling reading! Especially the second paragraph!
http://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2013/02/10/no-huddle-series-lsu-rb-spencer-ware/
Spencer Ware is a beast. I haven’t read that article yet, but he’s growing on me really quick. I think Ware was my favorite pick yesterday that made me say “who?!”
Yeah, same here.
Thanks for the link. What a Beast! Just like Marswawn, he runs with his feet wide apart in traffic. I really like the idea of platooning our RB’s.
I hope we sign WR Brandon Kaufman, from Eastern Washington as an UDFA. He would be a good big receiver to compete for the #6 WR slot.
He’s already gone I’m afraid, to Buffalo.
Have you all read that link in Rob’s post of a sign in the window of Les Miles’ office calling out certain players for less than complete dedication to football and their team. The Hawks drafted two of the players on it: Simon and Ware!
Not very Seahawky, on its face. Yet both of these players, Ware especially, were described at draft headquarters as vicious competitors. My guess is that Schneider is right, but we shall see.
I am willing to bet Schneider has never seen that photo, which was found on the internet and should therefore be taken with a grain of salt. My guess is the photo is real but directed more towards the players in question than NFL scouts. I mean are NFL scouts hanging out in university weight rooms? I doubt it. Probably the work of a ornery strength coach.
I’m not really surprised. Seattle’s 1st and 2nd round picks were both spend on players that butted heads with coaches (Harvin, Michael).
I think Seattle is comfortable with certain character flaws so long as the individual deeply cares about winning football games and competing to be the best. I don’t know about off the field, but on the field Simon and Ware are two of the nastiest SOBs that Seattle drafted.
Cheers!
I thought Jacksonville under Gus Bradley have started the process towards building there team the way Seattle started. 1st player picked was LOT and a damn good one. Then it was going to work on the defense and 2 WR. The thing that jumps out thou is 23 UDFAs Arby Jones DT, Ryan Otten TE, Lonnie Pryor FB, and the bonus and maybe future QB Matt Scott. All in all I think Gus has the Jaguers off to a good start.
I GET IT NOW !!!
I didn’t get it at first. I was looking at the players that we didn’t pick and could have instead of taking a big picture view. Shame on me for getting caught in it that way. I was the one always preaching about the long term big picture.
Now…after a day – I GET IT !!!.
ok…here goes – We have a very good roster with most starter returning and about 10 starters on rookie contracts awaiting payday in the next 2-3 years. While it’s not easy to improve the current team, preparing for the future is a must. With our cap situation – signing the outstanding rookie will not be easy. A plan must be made regarding who to sign, who to let go and which contract players will need to leave to clear the cap for those signings.
Looking at this picture – this draft makes a lot of sense. It will open many options according to who of them will prove himself to be the next guy up.
So here is the master plan as i see it now –
O line –
This draft was rather skinny in skill positions but very deep in the trenchs. However, once the top candidates in the OL were taken in the top rounds – the rest of group was very blanced. Since continuity plays a major roll in the OL – the call was to let the current group ride the 2013 year out and get a selection of potential guys at later rounds and UDFA in the hope that 1 or 2 will make the roster as backups that could step in at 2014. If it works out – Breno, McQ, Moffit wont be here at 2014. Even Carpenter unless he has a healthy productive year. If none works – there is always the 2014 draft or FA to fill the needs.
D line –
Here we need to fill holes RIGHT NOW as well as prepare for the future. So, a run stopping monster to play 3 tech and be able to sub for the 1 and 5 tech contract guys – CHECK. A jason jones replacment that can penetrate into the pocket on passing downs – CHECK. Both versatile and can play all DT positions and Red’s DE position. With the FA guys – we have all the talent in the world at the D line and come next year we can decide who can leave to clear cap space (Bennet ? McDaniel ? Red ?). Perfect.
WR –
We have a perfect crew but with Harvin+Rice at 25M it’ll be hard to pay Tate or Baldwin. In comes Harper, tall fast and very physical outside receiver. If he works out he opens the following options – trade Tate for a high pick at the 2014 draft and save the contract or negotiate with Rice on stronger terms etc.
TE –
Miller is great and not that expensive at 2014. McCoy…on his contract year. In come Luke. Fast, strong, blocker and reciever. If he works out – no need to contract McCoy. If he is amzing after a year to polish his skills – he may be the Miller of 2015 saving 7 mil for the Russel contract. If not – try again at the 2014 draft.
RB –
With Lynch spending most of the year with back issues, missing practice time which may have caused the fumbles in the last 3 games – a talented backup is a must. With Turbine and christine the pressure is off, the options are there – run by comittee…if the beast is declining – we have the next guy for 2014 or 2015. (and another contact cap released)
Seconday –
Yes, it’s the best in the league but…with Chancelor’s contract, Sherman and Thomas upcoming contracts – no way we pay Browner too. Simon is the new Browner. If he works out – great. If not there is UDFA pranchise year and the 2014 draft.
There’s a lot more about this draft but you get the picture. We have the starters we need right now and we have a list of high potential players that we want to grow and mature behind the leaders to make room for the future steps needed.
Smart FO…very smart.
So smart that the analists can’t bring themselves to grade them at less the B. Like to old proverb – He who was bitten by a snake always fears the graden hose…lol
I’m not going to get into much detail. I posted my details elsewhere. Kip pretty much echoed most my thoughts very well anyway other then maybe the RB pick. I still don’t understand it. He wasn’t even a work horse and had injury history. BUT, I do love him as a player. I would have rather took a more risk player later, but now that we got what we got, I’m fine with it.
I like his big play ability though!
The others that I really really LOVE.
-J. Hill & J. Williams combo package/DT’s – I liked Hill a lot before, but going back to the tape once again I really like him. Couple that with J. Williams – PERFECT. Love both these DT’s. Awesome job, and we fixed our issues at DT I think. J. Williams, what a steel! 5th round gold. I think both have the ability to maybe get some pass rush too. I have more hope for J. Williams at pass rush then most actually. But run ability, sweet. Perfect combo and guy’s I liked.
-T. Simon/CB – Love this guy and this pick! I’m thinking Sherman all over again. I think we again did our best drafting right here between him and J. Williams. He will step right into Browners spot some day. Love his bump and run coverage skill set. Great size and speed. He even hits hard. He’s WAY better then the honey badger that was off my board. We got the right LSU CB here. Sweet pick!
-R. Seymour/OG – I think this pick is a steel. I think he’ll plug right in and could start. He is amazing to me and going back on the tape now, I would put him in the 3rd round. (I never rated Oline this year, but I like him way more then Carpenter when I watched him) I wonder if he could even play RT?
But as guard, he plays both sides, and stands 6’5 300 just about. He doesn’t get blown back at all, and I see him pushing folks forward actually. I’m talking on pass plays. He can pull on run plays and plows forward. I love this guy. Once his paws are on you, nobody moved him. He’ll even come back and help QB out or smart enough to pick somebody else up. I like this kid
-M. Bowie/OT – I like his potential too. I think we got some good Oline guy’s late.
-4 free agents I really like. I don’t have there names right now. One reminded me of Irvin to a tee, the best one was a Safety that I really liked, there was one LB that looked real good, and one other player I can’t remember now. I think some of these guy’s will stick.
Really liked that safety we got.
Things I didn’t like:
-Hated that we passed on Patton in the 4th round! Or R. Swope or didn’t take a stab at Harrison late.
I’m not a fan of Harper at all. He reminds me more of a B. Edwards or M. Williams then a A. Boldin.
I’m hopeful for his speed and weight. I won’t say size, cause he’s fat at 6’1. 🙂
I can understand wanting the different type WR. We don’t have his mold at WR, where Patton is like P. Harvin or Tate. Maybe I’m wrong, but I’m not a fan. I don’t like his tape. He can not separate and drops the ball unlike Boldin. I kind of think we lost out on the 4th.
(We could have had K. Greene & R. Swope instead of Harper/2nd string TE from Rice basically)
-Hated that we passed on K. Greene. I think Chicago nailed there starting LB in the 4th.
They also didn’t value LB’s, or think it was a need. This could be a mistake IMO. One injury there and were sunk. (I do like one of the free agents though, and maybe there is more depth then I realize on our roster) I think we’ll be looking for LB and TE next year though.
-Hate the TE. What a waist IMO in the 5th. He’s a undrafted free agent to me and no better then the guy we picked up in free agency. We landed 2 studs in the same round. I guess I can’t complain. 🙂
-Lots of small school reaches again in the back half. I’ll leave it that as you can’t really evaluate that. But, even the position of choice is not my fav. To me, they are guy’s that should be undrafted free agents instead of picks. Harrison at 6’4 and running a 4.4 is a GOOD 7th round stab. Or a M. Scott type QB. Somebody with some tape. T. Brady in the rough.
Bottom line, I’m happy! Especially when you add in free agency and Harvin.
I would just like to have added Patton or K. Greene in the 4th instead of Harper, somebody else instead of the TE, and Harrison in the 7th, and a QB Somewhere.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts.
Thanks for all that you do Rob!
Always enjoy this site and the hard work, and good evaluations you guys give. And other bloggers viewpoints too.
I have fun seeing how you guy’s compare to my evaluations that I do.
Thanks,
GO HAWKS!
When Chip Kelly went to the Eagles, I thought, “well, this should be interesting.” How much of that Oregon offense is he going to try to bring to the NFL? But I am wondering if Chip Kelly even knows what offense he will be running. His three QBs are Michael Vick (sort of Oregon style), Nick Foles (classic slow-footed, big-armed dropback pocket passer); and Matt Barkley (pure west coast offense, average arm strength, accurate, good decision-maker). These QBs, to find any sort of success, would need three entirely different offenses. You are not off to a good start when you have three QBs on your roster who need three different schemes built around them. Kelly must have no idea what he is doing, unless he is the classic doomed-to-fail HC who believes he is such a genius he can win without a plan.
Very glad to hear in the presser linked above that Pete is now saying that he does indeed plan to move his pass rusher around some, rather than just lining them up and launching them into a direct assault on the OT. The Leo (Clemons) generally lined up in the 9 tech, well to the outside shoulder of the LOT. This put the opposite end on passing downs (Irvin) mostly square up on the ROT. Many of us on this blog asked over the course of the season why Irvin was being sent straight into the ROTs chest on 3rd down. In rare instances, I remember Irvin running a simple inside-out stunt with the DT, where he did find some success. 95% of the time, however, Bruce was launched right at the OT, as if he was Von Miller (which he is not). At USC, Pete used his elephant (Matthews, et al) as somewhat of a LB rover, where he would slide across the line before the ball was snapped and then rush into a gap. Many of us wondered why Pete and Gus Bradley did not do this with Bruce, since Irvin obviously is neither a bull rusher nor a hand fighter. He needs to be moved around to find gaps and then fire through them like a missile, and it finally sounds like Pete is going to do that this year. Avril will be in this role as well when Clem returns.