The Russell Wilson contract prediction

Russell Wilson is entering the final year of his contract

I’ve gone back and forth on what I think is happening — and will happen — with the developing Russell Wilson contract saga. After a lot of thought, here’s my assessment of the situation and some predictions.

We’ll see how close it ends up being to the truth.

1. Mark Rodgers wants at least $120m fully guaranteed on a three year extension

That’s what I think Wilson’s agent would be pitching for if negotiations began today. That’s how much Wilson is guaranteed to earn if he plays on the exclusive rights franchise tag for three years. His salary would be approximately $31m in 2020, $37m in 2021 and $53m in 2022. While it’s unlikely he’d ever see the third tag in Seattle, the threat of him leaving as a free agent after the 2021 season is the carrot here. So they’ll ask for what they’re owed to stay for as long as Seattle can physically keep him. That’s their starting point. Added together that’s a fully guaranteed $121m. With a new CBA projected to bring new money into the league (especially with the introduction of legalised gambling) it’s likely Rodgers would want to test the market again in 2022 or 2023. So a loaded three-year extension could be their aim.

2. The Seahawks are not talking for a reason

Multiple reports say negotiations are yet to begin. The Seahawks will have an idea on Rodgers’ demands for his client. According to Mike Garofolo, they were asking for ‘huge’ sums in 2015 when talks began. Then with a training camp deadline set to get a new deal done, the parties found some common ground on a contract that didn’t reach a league-high amount. If Seattle starts talks now, they just elongate the discussion window and exacerbate the situation. They really need a deadline and a short window to create some pressure and leverage to strike a deal. At the moment there’s no incentive for Wilson to negotiate. That won’t be the case when training camp draws close. It’ll be very difficult for Wilson to walk into a locker room of 90 guys — many on a minimal salary — and lead them having rejected the chance to become the highest paid player in the league. Especially when every single one of those players saw Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers act in a very different way.

3. The Seahawks will seriously consider drafting a quarterback

Nothing will be resolved before the draft. Even if they set up the right kind of environment to get a deal done later this year — there’s still a chance Wilson won’t agree terms. They need to plan for a possible divorce. For that reason, they’ll seriously consider drafting a quarterback with an early pick. It’ll depend on how they view the quarterbacks in this class and whether the player or players they like are available in the right range. I think there’s a chance Will Grier could be a target. They need some insurance just in case things turn sour with Wilson. So if the right player is available, they may well draft him. And why not? The difference between a successful or disappointing 2019 season will not be one rookie. It’d be a sensible and worthwhile pick to plan and prepare ahead.

4. Wilson will face a very difficult decision

When the Seahawks eventually speak with Wilson and his camp in a likely shortened window with a deadline for talks to conclude, he’ll need to weigh up two things. I suspect he intends to stay in Seattle for the rest of his career or at least most of his career. He will want to lead the team properly and develop his leadership credentials, not undermine them. There’s also something to be said for becoming the highest paid player in the NFL. He’d likely carry that position for at least a year. It’s unlikely Ben Roethlisberger, also a free agent in 2020, would top Wilson’s mark at age 38. Philip Rivers is in a similar position. Tom Brady, if he continues to play after 2019, has never been a player to top this list and likely won’t aged 43. So there’s no immediate threat to Wilson as the highest paid quarterback. At the same time, his greatest ability to max out his earnings will be via the franchise tag. Either by guaranteeing himself $68m in 2020 and 2021 before reaching free agency, or by being traded to a team willing to pay him mega money. As the ultimate competitor, this will also be tempting for Wilson. The idea of him betting on himself is not exactly a stretch.

5. What will he decide?

I think it’s more likely than not that he will be willing to compromise and a deal will be struck. At the moment that seems a ways off. All of the talk is about +$40m a year deals and Wilson’s motivation to play on the tag. When he’s presented with a chance to be the highest paid player in the NFL, eliminate any drama that comes with playing in a contract year and make a commitment to the Seahawks — I think he will take it. Does he want to have to justify his decision to the rest of the team? Does he want to answer questions about his future at every press conference? I don’t think so. The Seahawks might have to compromise on a three or four year contract so that he can negotiate another deal under the new CBA. However, they would have club control for further seasons and this would at the very least secure Wilson’s prime years in Seattle.

6. What happens if he doesn’t agree a new contract before camp?

It wouldn’t guarantee the end of his career in Seattle after 2019. They could still find some common ground down the line. It’d make things difficult though and if they do draft a quarterback this year, they could start to make plans to move on rather than handle the year-to-year drama of the franchise tag. So while nothing’s guaranteed — if he doesn’t agree a deal before the season, the chances of a trade in 2020 increase.

7. Why don’t they just set a deadline before the 2019 draft?

It wouldn’t have the same impact. The moment Wilson steps foot in camp having rejected the chance to be the highest paid player in the league it creates avoidable drama. He knows it’ll be talked about by everyone on the team. The media will never stop talking about it. It’ll be a PR disaster with fans. His future will be a cloud hanging over the team for a whole season. That’s the leverage Seattle needs to get this done. They need Wilson to feel that. None of this exists in April. Wilson and Rodgers can just say — we reject the deadline, talk to us in July/August. And then what are you going to do? Trade away a franchise quarterback simply because you’re unwilling to let a complex negotiation play out? Your intention here is to get a deal done, not trade Russell Wilson. That requires some patience and a process. Forcing an April deadline wouldn’t result in a deal, would damage your position and with limited time to orchestrate a trade — other teams would take you to the cleaners.

8. What’s the final prediction in a nutshell?

Here it is. Mark Rodgers would ask for ridiculous money if talks began now. Therefore the Seahawks won’t start talks for a while yet. They will strongly consider drafting a quarterback with a high pick in April. Eventually a training camp deadline will be set. Both parties will find common ground rather than face a season of drama — but they need the pressure of a deadline to move the needle. If a deal isn’t struck before camp it’ll increase the chances of a Wilson trade in 2020.

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  1. ZB

    Nicely written article and I’m glad we are moving on from RW talks for awhile. But I assume he will come up again if indeed we do draft a high pick QB.

    I honestly don’t think we end up trading Russ but hearing him over the years….I certainly don’t think he’s going to take a hit for the team. He’s a nice guy on the surface and a darn good QB but lets face it, he wants the world and everything he can get out of it. The Seahawks are not family to him and he would turn face and run to another team if he could make more there, just like pretty much every other player in the league. We are Seahawk fans first and foremost. Players come and go but the Seahawks franchise is what we all as fans hold on to.

    Go Hawks

    • Kenny Sloth

      😒 I honestly don’t really even like the franchise.

      I’m much more a fan of the individual players. Because it’s not a family it’s a business.

      Franchises come and go but the business is what we all as fans cling to.



    • Simo

      Well said ZB! Russ isn’t unlike 99% of NBA players (or just us regular fellas for that matter), who all want to maximize their income and provide for our families. This doesn’t make him a bad guy, or a greedy one, and I do believe he feels some kinship with his teammates and wants to remain in Seattle.

      Let’s pray Rob is correct, that Russ and Pete/John find some middle ground on a new contract.

      • ZB


  2. Volume12

    Gronk retired? BIG if true.

    • Kenny Sloth

      Injuries took a toll

    • schuemansky

      If Hockensen is there at 21, we maybe found our trade partner.
      21 for 32, 73 and one of their 7th round comp picks.

      • Coleslaw

        I like it. Although I think the 7th would be more like a 6th or 5th.

        At #21, were only a couple picks away from that 20s range turning into 25-35 range or 30-40 range.

        • Coleslaw

          Sorry, the 20s range has been touted as undesirable here, I meant to say that if a few early picks push players down the board, it would stretch out those desirable spots, and we would be one of the first.

      • Michael Matherne

        If Hockensen is there at 21 I really hope they just take him. Of course the chances of him being there at 21 are essentially zero, so.

      • Volume12

        Hockenson goes to NE and its a wrap.

  3. Largent80

    Every person in the world wants to be paid a fair amount for their services, but with NFL players….what is the ceiling?…There isn’t one. It just keeps going up and up. At what point does it stop?…or does it even stop?

    Where is this money coming from?…With salary caps and all. This is ruining sports as we know it. It’s terrible. But whatever, I’m already growing complacent and will NEVER pay hundreds of dollars to watch a game in person Nor will I pay for TV games.

    I will not let the NFL hold me hostage to watch football, especially when they are so money driven that they will even be allowing legalized betting going forward. Count me OUT NFL.

    As far as RW is concerned. I shook the dudes hand the year we won the SB during our bye week at the NFL Network studios in Culver City. I will always cherish that moment as well as the following SB win and parade in Seattle.

    I’m tired of this contract/money shit, and there is NO end in sight……Bye.

    • Kenny Sloth

      Don’t watch soccer then ⚽

      Top paid soccer players are 😂😂😂 at Mike Trout’s new deal


    • Doug

      Save your pennies and treat yourself to a game at CLink if you can. The atmosphere is amazing and win or lose the game experience is something you will always remember.

      I agree that it is “team first” though, and if the best thing for the team that Russ needs to get paid somewhere else, I am fine with that. I honestly think Grier could be a good QB in this offence, and we maybe need someone like him on a rookie deal to make the PCJS “plan” work.

      I think Rob is right about the next few months, but man if there is a team that offers a trade for Russ with Kyle still on the board it would be SO tempting to take it, load up on D prospects, and let the competition in camp sort out the QB situation, just like 2012.

  4. Kenny Sloth

    I Love to See a Black Man Get Paid


    • Doug

      Yes, and Russ is going to get his regardless.

      If the salary cap didn’t exist I am sure he would be paid to stay in Seattle, but with the cap it is just so difficult to balance out a team and build it successfully from season to season. The only team that has really done so is NE.

      • Kenny Sloth

        So true. Balance is a big keyword for Pete it seems like.

  5. drewdawg11

    I am torn on this. I am all for drafting a young player earlier on for insurance purposes. However, I am
    NOT as big of a Will Grier fan as you, Rob. The whole “he throws the deep ball well” argument sort of loses steam when you consider his underwhelming lack of arm strength to make all of the other throws Russell can make. If anything, this isn’t the year to do it. We don’t have many picks, and I don’t love the players available. Grier is just another WVU QB who is a good college player, and perhaps he can someday be a decent starter in the NFL. Maybe.

    • Rob Staton

      I am not a ‘big’ crazy Will Grier fan. I’ve merely written some articles breaking down why I think the Seahawks might like him. And those reasons, in fairness, are compelling. The areas he excels match up Seattle’s offense and wishes.

      I think people are getting mixed up between me suggesting Grier’s a good fit and me thinking Grier is the best thing since sliced bread. I think Grier is pretty good, I like aspects of his game and have reservations on other aspects (which I’ve discussed in my articles about him). I don’t agree he has a lack of arm strength — he has mechanical flaws that impact some throws. He doesn’t own a rocket but overall I think his arm strength is decent when he gets his mechanics right. Coaches will need to decide how fixable the flaw is.

      The quarterback I really like is Kyler Murray. And that’s why I was saying he should be Arizona’s pick at #1 long before it became a talking point anywhere else.


        Did Will Grier not have the strongest arm at the combine? I thought someone measured that in MPH.

        • Rob Staton

          That is correct.

    • Trevor

      I am with you on Grier I just don’t see it. I will admit I have not watched all his tape and he does have a nice hilight reel with some really pretty deep balls. But I thought he looked awful at the Senior Bowl and combine. That being said he is supposed to have a great work ethic and be a good leader so I can see the Hawks giving him a close look. I prefer Stidham if they go QB on day #2 and Tyree Jackson on Day #3 if they go the developmental route.

      • Rob Staton

        I’ve watched all his 2018 games and most of his 2017. He’s a good quarterback with some mechanical flaws. But the point is for the Seahawks he’s a great fit. What does he do best? Downfield throwing to receivers who can create separation on deep routes. His deep accuracy is excellent. For an Air Coryell type system like Seattle’s he is a match.

        Everyone looked pretty bad at the Senior Bowl. And to be fair, Josh Allen looked like a Super Hero in Mobile a year ago. He looked 10 times better than Baker Mayfield too. So not everything translates.

        • Trevor

          All good points and I will defer to your expertise on this one. I don’t think any QB in this class outside of Kyler Murray would be a true replacement for Russ anyways.

        • Hawksince77

          Just to add to Rob’s point about the Senior Bowl, I recall a comment from a scout after RW’s senior bowl: “There are no franchise QBs here.” Cousins might have also played in that game, I don’t remember. I know he was in the same draft as RW.

  6. Trevor

    Rob I think you have summed the situation up nicely. I think it is the mostly likely outcome as well.

    I guess I just don’t understand what Russ has done since his last big extension to justify being the highest paid QB on the league. The team has regressed since that point. I guess QB salary inflation and the fact the Hawks have not invested draft capital to find a suitable alternative is the simple answer.

    I really, really hope I am wrong but I truly believe if the Hawks make Russ the highest paid QB in the NFL that we have seen the last SB in the Pete Carroll era.

    I promise this will be my last post on the Russel Wilson saga. Time to have fun with the draft.

    • Rob Staton

      I think the best way to sum up the position of highest paid player in the league is this…

      ‘The latest good quarterback to get paid’

      It’s not that Wilson is the best player or necessarily worthy of being the highest paid. It’s simply that his deal ran out after Aaron Rodgers, whose deal ran out after Matt Ryan.

      In 18 months Jared Goff might be the highest paid player in the NFL. That would be even less deserved. Eventually it’ll be Mahomes. Probably deserved. And so on.

      So to me whether Wilson deserves it or not is neither here nor there. He’s just next up and as a consequence, will spend some time as the highest paid player in the NFL.

      • Michael Matherne

        This is why I think it’s so bizarre how much players SEEM to care about this. I tend to think the “highest paid” label is something the agent is striving for much more than the player. I’ve listened to a few hall of fame speeches, and I can’t remember any of them every mentioning how great is was to be the highest paid player in the league. An agent on the other hand would slap that on his business card so he can rake in even more money. I really like Russell Okung for not having an agent. I wish more players had the guts to cut out what I consider to be a pretty useless profession.

        • Rob Staton

          It’s an ego thing for players and agents can use it to recruit new clients.

          Russell Wilson trusts Mark Rodgers but man if he was with someone like Doug Hendrickson this would all get sorted without any fuss.

      • Sea Mode


  7. Michael Matherne

    The idea of them drafting a QB is such an interesting one. It makes sense from the team’s perspective to be prepared for the worst case scenario, but really it would be better for both parties for it not to happen. If you’re Russell, and you kind of force the ‘Hawks to prepare for life without you, then let’s say you do eventually get a deal done to stay here, aren’t you going to be kicking yourself a little knowing that you’re the reason a high draft pick is riding the pine behind you instead of out there catching passes or blocking for you? (or more likely rushing the passer, but you get the idea)

    • Rob Staton

      All fair points. It’s a difficult situation. Unfortunately for the team they have to do what’s best for them.

  8. Trevor

    Every year during the season I think teams place too much value on draft picks and not enough on proven talent. Then the free agency period comes around each year and my thinking switches completely and I wish the Hawks had more draft capital no matter how much they already have.

    With the cap and free agent contracts going up are draft picks being given more value now that’s say 5 years ago!

    • Rob Staton

      Especially this year with the excellent middle round depth.

      • Trevor

        I ageee I can’t remember a draft with this much comparable talent from say #20-120.

  9. Frank

    Am I the only person hear that truly can’t stand Russel Wilson as a human being, not just for being a soulless self promoting robot that views his job like a political machine attempting to get his face beside every sick kid in the pnw, or the fact that his relationship seems like it’s entirely about two of the most narcissistic people in the world declaring there love for our attention, but when I hear him , open his mouth, I think this is the fakest person I’ve ever seen on TV and that includes the Jersey Shore and Big Brother. It’s not about personality, it’s about performance and I don’t think he’s a Big Ben lvl cancer on a team, but he’s not far behind in my book. I’m so done hearing about his contract, who cares. If he is willing to take less than Rodgers sign him back up, if he can get two 1st round picks and change ship him, but can we please not give him any more attention?

    • Trevor

      Wow Frank why dont you tell us how you really feel 🙂

      I don’t feel as strongly as you but for as much as I like the player on the field I dislike the off field silliness and fake persona. I posted on this the other day. I just dont think Russ is a leader in that locker room. The Hawks won an S with a dominant D, and Beastmode as the identity. The second they gave Russ his big deal and made him the face of the franchise things went downhill. Coincidience ? Maybe but I certainly would not be making him the highest paid QB in the league.

      Pete wants a dominant D, power run game, explosive plays on offense and to win the turnover battle. Not sure how well aligned having the highest paid QB in the league taking up 20% of your cap space is with that vision.

      But I am beating a dead horse with that line of thinking.

      • charlietheunicorn

        Leadership can take many forms. He may not “classically” lead the Seahawks, but make no mistake, he leads the team. His demeaner, calmness under pressure, his ability to make things happen….. overall intangibles, he has that in spades.

        You know the old phrase, “Leaders are not born, they are made.”
        RW is still evolving as a leader and perhaps he will be more visible in that capacity in 2019 and beyond.

        • Trevor

          Great points Charlie. I would add that Russ has shown incredible top toughness, durability and consistency. One thing no one can question is whether or not he is going to show up on Sundays. In that regard he is the #1 QB.

        • GoHawksDani

          I’m torna bit on Russ. He’s the fakes ever, or he’s a nice guy who is a bit awkward and it comes up as weird. To me his like the chubby kid who started go to the gym and eventually have a great body.
          Everyone said that he’s too short, so he’s got a chip on his shoulder, and a bit defensive about himself, and wants to prove everyone wrong, and wants to be recognized. And he wants to be loved. But he’s not the smartest or most eloquent guy, so sometimes it’s awkward (like his love rants to Ciara). BUT he’s a humble dude. Imagine telling Brady or Cam or somebody else that you’ll ran 70% in the first half. You won’t be MVP like ever, and everyone will doubt your talent, because we’ll be a running team. They would throw a fit. Russ understood that it’ll help them win games, it’s their identity. So yeah…he’s not the antichrist 🙂

        • AlaskaHawk

          He makes no mistakes???? What???? For a Quarterback that just had statistically one of his best years, I am still baffled about how the Seahawks offense can look so crappy for half a game at a time. To the point of being unwatchable. Clean up the offensive performance as a team and I would be willing to pay him what he wants. But until they get that offense clicking, he is not my favorite quarterback.

          • Rob Staton

            My counter to this would be… every quarterback has tough games. Wilson seems to have the odd tough ‘half’ — not even a full game.

            Case in point — Philip Rivers. Quality player. Consistent.

            Ended the regular season throwing 3-6 TD/INT ratio. Had three sub-60% completion games. Threw two picks in a one-point loss to Denver.

            If our aim is for the QB to be flawless… not even Brady manages that.

          • AlaskaHawk

            I don’t expect perfection. I just expect the Seahawks to move the ball.

    • GerryG

      Football blog buddy, not an internet cesspool for hate filled rants.

      Yes Russ is a robot. It’s pretty fake. He’s also a genuinely nice human being too. Nobody fakes visiting sick children, every week.

      I’m most annoyed at his pre-snap reads.

      • Stephen Pitell

        Visiting sick children is the easiest fake to make if one is most interested in good PR. It takes no future decisions. It can become 100% of a persons PR effort and allows one to do whatever else one wants from then on. I don’t know if Russ’ visiting sick children is sincere or not, but to suggest it proves anything is not compelling.

        • Rob Staton

          Frank’s use of Wilson’s visits to the Children’s Hospital as a means to criticise him is such a low blow I’m tempted to delete the message… but I then wouldn’t be able to post this reply.

          Because you know what? Who cares if Wilson gets some positive PR out of it. Those kids he visits every week, it probably brightens up their day and has a massive, unmatched positive impact on their lives.

          Well done Russell Wilson.

          • dylanlep

            Father of two boys and my wife is a pediatric oncology nurse at Seattle Children’s, has been for about 15 years. She loses kids on a regular basis.

            What these kids and their families are going through is incomprehensible. The impact that a visit from Russell Wilson has on these kids is incalculable. It can make their whole year, lifts their spirits and gives them renewed fight, and sadly, for some it is one of the last positive memories they have.

            So my response to whether his visits are genuine is ‘who cares’, the kids love it and that is all that matters.

            • Trevor

              Thanks for sharing that and putting some context to importantance to what he does there! After all the kids are the only thing that matters in that situation. Nothing else!

            • Rob Staton

              Well said

          • TCHawk

            I too think this was an ill conceived low blow. I wish this was what was ‘wrong’ with more NFL players. Criticizing a player because he visits desperately ill children every week? Wow. I remember he started those visits months before they even became known publicly.

          • Frank

            It wasn’t my intention to be derogatory, just intention matters too me as much as the result. He might just be an awkward personality and it could come entirely from the heart, I suppose we won’t ever know until his playing days are done and there isn’t a financial reward for playing the part. Likely I’m probably a little jaded from the around the clock coverage of Earl Thomas’s contract, and when I see the PR games being played and the news cycle turning towards the same song and dance again it easy to be a little disgusted pining for news that is more focused on what we actually need out of the position and what the value of that is. We haven’t won since he got paid the first time, and given wanting to play a smash mouth style of football don’t think we have a chance of winning another Super Bowl if his contract demands are met. I truly believe we gave the rest of the league the blue print on how to win by spending less on a QB and more elsewhere and see the rest of the league catching up with that to the point that Franchise QB are going to start seeing a lower percentage of the teams total spending. If every team in the league pays there QB 40 million a year, fine we can do it and still compete, but I think the league is getting wise to it and don’t want to be the last franchise to Morgage their future on one player and never be competitive with the elite teams again. Like him or find him to be fake doesn’t really matter, he can ball and should be paid for it, but not so much he hamstrings the team like he did last time. We don’t need a PR machine QB, to keep people buying tickets, we need a distributor that protects the ball and once in a while makes a play. I think you’d be better off with a rookie for that purpose and ship him to the Dolphins/Giants or another team that is more interested in PR than Super Bowl wins. I applaud his going and seeing sick kids, and have a friend who’s child has cancer that meet him, but if it was genuine I don’t think we’d ever hear about it, especially around contract time.

            • SoCal12

              As a counter to your last sentence, I worked at a restaurant across the street from the Children’s Hospital Wilson visits, and the dude goes to visit those kids pretty much every damn day. He sometimes got takeout from where I worked and always stayed super low key, didn’t want to be noticed at all while also being super friendly to the staff. There’s a ton of visits he doesn’t post out, and to imply that posting a few somehow invalidates the kindness just seems like such an unhealthy and cynical viewpoint. These kids are getting truly happy moments in their live, and there’s dudes trying to imply they aren’t real and their hero’s a phony because their sportsball team is having a hard time balancing their billion dollar checkbook? I just don’t get those priorities man.

              Also, if I were a kid in this social media age, I would absolutely want Russ to be posting our photos online. I’d be parading that shit around for weeks.

              • Frank

                Fair points. The part two of this goes back to something Rob had said when things where taking an overly political turn in discussions with the whole National anthem thing.” We take breaks from real life and use sports to distract ourselves for some well deserved R and R”. I have a gut feeling about The Who this person is that might not be correct, but when I see them bickering and playing the PR games over whether they get 35 or 40 million dollars a year with the next highest paid teammate making half that, it detracts from my love and enjoyment of the sport and the player in peticular. If it was B Wagners, or Baldwin, or to go farther back Kam or Avril contract I wouldn’t have the same feelings over it, (because I do feel differently about the man involved) as Wilson or Clark’s. Not liking, or trusting that a person is genuine doesn’t mean they shouldn’t get paid, just that I for one don’t want to hear about it and wish they would conclude their business behind closed doors, in a matter that respects the fact most of us don’t make a million plus a year. I just want to hear about the top ten guys per position that are possible fits for my team, and pretty done listening to poo about multi millionaires and what they deserve when there are guys on the team that will spend their entire careers sacrificing their health mental health and overall well being to the sport and might never make 1 million a year doing so. You really wanna impress me, champion the guys that never got paid the big bucks and are living with CME the rest of their lives.

                • SoCal12

                  I get your point, but that’s a bit of goalpost moving. Just cause there’s dudes who definitely deserve more than they get, does not detract from anything good Russell does nor does it discount his right to get paid while also putting his body on the line.

                  And honestly, a lot of the ‘PR games’ and ‘bickering’ that you are wary of have been spun out by the media which you do not have to engage with. Contract talks have almost entirely been behind close doors, and the only slight glimpse we’ve actually had is a casual mention on a late night talk show that he ‘could be the highest paid’ which was prefaced with a ‘I want to stay in Seattle’. Everything else has been wild speculation and hot air, which once again, is something that you can voluntarily be involved with or not.

      • Whit21

        Ohh man GerryG.. thats the best ending to a comment iv seen on this blog… 100% agree.. ahah

  10. RWIII

    Good stuff Rob. You pretty much nailed the situation. I agree right now Russell Wilson’s agent would ask for a ridiculous contract. So there is no incentive at the moment to negotiate a long term contract.

  11. Hawkin

    I appreciate the thought process, but don’t agree it plays out like that. John and Pete should have a good sense of how badly Wilson wants to play in Seattle vs how much money he wants. From experience, past negotiations and years spent with him.

    Look I’m not saying trade him and be done with it, or trade him we need the picks. We can’t possibly know what JSPC knows. But they should tread their own deadlines lightly. Because IF they know Wilson, and know he and Rodgers are looking to cash in more than playing on a reasonable deal. Well, then you need to start considering a trade and the value you get back for him in ‘19 or ‘20.

    The situation would be far more desperate in ‘20 trying to trade Wilson and teams would fleece us then in negotiations. I would be in favor of trading him before the season starts, even if that’s in August, if that means we maximize his value in a trade.

    • Rob Staton

      The intention is to re-sign Wilson not trade him. All this talk about ‘maxing out trade value’. No. It’s about going through the process to give yourself the best chance to re-sign him to a compromised deal between both parties. The reason I am talking about the training camp deadline is because it creates a legitimate pressure point for the Seahawks. Setting deadlines in April, May, August… whenever. That does nothing. It creates no pressure and can easily be swatted away by the Wilson camp. Furthermore, do you honestly think that’s a strong position to try and initiate a trade? You’d be selling in a buyers market with time ticking down either to the draft or to the season.

      All you’re doing with this kind of stance is not giving yourself any realistic chance to negotiate and then screwing yourself in trade talks.

      Also, you say they should have a sense on how badly Wilson wants to play in Seattle etc. Four years ago Rodgers and Wilson were asking for huge money. They compromised on a deal when the training camp deadline was set. There’s a precedent here.

      And someone is going to need to explain why trying to trade Wilson would be more desperate in 2020 than 2019. I don’t get that at all. The trade value will be the exact same.

      People just need to chill. Let the process play out. In 12 months Wilson could be signed, franchised or playing for another team. I’d say any of the three is likely. But the intention is to keep him in Seattle and that means playing the game a bit, not throwing the baby out with the bath water.

      • Hawkin

        This time next year if the Wilson contract saga is still going on, it’s assumed he would be tagged. And as you’ve pointed out the hawks would be able to get two first round picks from the team that signs him on the transition tag. That’s what you’re risking (I think). You could get more for him in a trade to play on his new team in ‘19 and they wouldn’t have to compete with other teams in salary negotiations.

        Look I’m just sharing what I think of the two scenarios. It seems like added risk by letting the situation get to that point and then deciding whether to trade him. I also think people on this blog have raised fair concerns (if) the contract is not reasonable.

        Let’s see how it plays out, and hope this works out well for the team.

        • Rob Staton

          If they put him on the exclusive rights franchise tag, the two first round pick scenario doesn’t apply.

  12. Hawksince77


    Kudos for putting together such thoughtful piece, and for making such a specific prediction. Very nicely done.

    A couple of questions.

    First, why would Seattle consider offering a contract, with a huge part of it guaranteed, for the same amount they could keep him year to year with a tag? The next three seasons cost Seattle ~$20m, $31m, $37m, or something like that. The 4th year is the big tag of $50m+, right? So if you offer an extension (years 2, 3 and 4) for ~$121m, with something like $100m guaranteed, how is the club better off? Or did I miss the logic? Or is that the minimum you would expect RW to accept? I just re-read the piece and see the big numbers are RW’s agent, and their starting point. You think this can be negotiated lower until RW gets paid more than Rodgers ($34m+ per year) and can maintain a straight face when training camp begins. Is that your thinking?

    If so (that I have your argument right) you think the potential hassle, either by the press or his team-mates, will really be severe enough (from RW’s perspective) to keep him from cashing in his lottery ticket at full value? He knows (just like we know) that some team out there, if not several teams, will pay him far more than Seattle will, should he reach FA. And as far as his teammates are concerned, who will blame him from wanting to maximize what he can make? That’s what everyone of them would do, and will do, given the opportunity. If they will resent him for passing on an extension offer from Seattle because he thinks he can do better, they already resent him.

    It could be that PC/JS feel they have no choice but to try, and aim to get an extension done before training camp. But if they don’t, they have even less leverage, and the opportunity now to maximize RW’s trade value will be compromised. In addition, if they don’t trade him now, and instead, use their scarce draft capital to invest in a QB, they are doubly poor, and even in worse shape going into the 2019 season, and beyond.

    If they don’t think they can get an extension for RW this year (say they are 95% confident that RW will not agree to their best offer) and if there is a team now NYG or the Raiders, say) willing to give up a huge amount of draft capital (something like a minimum of 3 firsts, plus) then they have an opportunity now that they won’t have with RW playing on the tag. Not to mention the challenge they will have to retain other key players.

    That’s what worries me. Even if they think the chances are slim, they feel obligated to try and re-sign RW. RW has his eyes on the stars, willing to play out the tags (your initial argument still has me convinced) and eventually reach FA. Seattle is forced to use the tag on RW next year and risk losing Reed or Wagner (or both). Or they cave and sign a mega mega deal (well beyond what you are predicting above) and hamper the team’s ability to retain top talent.

    If RW had a Brady-attitude towards team building and championships, we’d all be thrilled. But I fear it may be the opposite. I hope I am wrong and you are right, and PC/JS have a good strategy, and RW signs before training camp. That would be awesome.

    • Rob Staton

      1. They wouldn’t consider it. That figure is my prediction on what Mark Rodgers will ask for in his opening gambit.

      2. Yes I think Wilson will find it incredibly difficult to lead the team having turned down a compromised new deal for the reasons listed in the piece. Not saying he won’t just saying it’ll be difficult. Possibly too difficult.

      3. As I keep saying… the intention is to KEEP Wilson not to trade him. All this talk about ‘this team might offer this now’ etc — doesn’t matter. You have to go through the process and at least try and keep him. That likely means, as I’ve proposed, setting a short window for talks and a camp deadline. If you don’t do that and just trade him now you’re selling the beautiful sports car because the first gas station you stop at is too expensive. This is a process. One that has barely even started.

  13. Eburgz

    Anyone have thoughts on QB Trace McSorley as a late round/UDFA prospect in to compete with Paxton Lynch for the backup qb spot? He’s undersized but gritty and athletic. Described as a gamer, he’s won a bunch of games for penn state and come up clutch in some big moments. Led FBS QB’s with 16.1 yards per completion in 2016 and can create explosive plays in the run game. He has some similarities to RW and he kinda fits what Pete Carrol wants with a “point guard” at quarterback. Doesn’t like to throw into tight windows but doesn’t throw a bunch of picks as a result.

    Doesn’t have great size, accuracy or arm strength. Regressed this past season.

    • Rob Staton

      Don’t think he’s a good enough downfield passer.

  14. CaptainJack

    Even if we draft a tight end:

    I think Will Dissly is going to have a Chris Carson comeback style season. I think he’ll remain the number one tight end over the course the season. Of course I’d love to see someone like Wesco come in and push him a La Penny.

    • CaptainJack

      If Penny and Dissly really game the next step they could really become major fixtures of the offense.

  15. charlietheunicorn

    *pounds the table*

    You have to get RW locked up before Mahomes deal.
    I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again, Mahomes is going to get close to 40M / year.

    And since we are spending other peoples money, I think 32.5M average is fair…
    the closet to 35M average the deal gets, the more uncomfortable I become.

    As mentioned, the largest sticking point might be the amount of guaranteed juice in the deal. I have no off the field concerns with RW, so that is not the issue, it just is that…. you pay a guy that much money… he has to produce…. it is not “hope” he produces. I guess we are spoiled with a quality QB… after wandering the QB purgatory for many years of the Seahawks franchise’s existence.

    • ZB

      I agree we need to deal with Wilson before Mahomes makes his money. In the next 12 months probably.

  16. GoHawksDani

    Nice summary! I made a prediction in the last post, but I forgot about the CBA.

    I feel Russ and his agent will be willing to compromise in some aspect but also will be stubborn in some others.

    So the years will be probably 3 more
    There are the guaranteed and the APY.

    I think they’ll say 40m APY, 100% GTD. Hawks will say 33M APY, 60% GTD.
    I think they can find common ground with the APY (35,5-36M), but I think they’ll be adamant about the guaranteed.
    I feel they’ll probably meet with fully GTD first 3 years, ~75% GTD last year.

    Numbers something like this:
    30M – 30 gtd 2019 ( would raise his CAP 5m)
    37M – 37M gtd
    40M – 40M gtd
    37M – 27M gtd

    What do you guys think about APY, distribution, guaranteed?

    • ZB

      JS would sign this deal immediately.

  17. Trevor

    The one thing I would not hesitate to do is give Russ a fully guaranteed deal if I meant less overall $ and cap hit. His durability and toughness is unmatched he has shown he is going to be there on Sunday without fail.

  18. Trevor

    Under PC/JS the Hawks have never been afraid to think outside of the box. Russ has been the model of consistency and durability having never missed a game and his work ethic can never be questioned.

    If they truly believe in him as their franchise QB then why not put all your chips in he middle and give a 10yr / $250 million dollar deal. The Hawks get their QB postion locked down for the next decade with cost certainty. Russ get a 1/4 of a billion dolls and can focus on another SB to cement his legacy and brand. Mark Rodgers can tell everyone he got Russ a baseball deal.

    • H

      They wouldn’t offer that and he wouldn’t accept that.

    • DCD2

      Why would Russ take that? Rob has pointed out that he’s trying to maximize his earnings. This isn’t just shorting himself, it’s shorting himself by probably $100M over ten years.

      Even if it was $350M, I think that 10 years is a non-starter for the RW camp.

      • Trevor

        My point was if the Hawks want to put pressure on Wilson as Rob stated in the article and Russ and his agent want a baseball type deal then what better way to apply leverage. Even if you increase the amount to $275 mil or $300 mil it is a whole lot better than having to go though this fiasco every 2-3 years.

        I am in the camp of trade him now for max value and move on as they have not shown in he last 4 years since he got his first big extension that they can be an SB contender with him as the focal point of the offense.

        However I realize PC/JS have kind of hitched thier wagon to Russ so I was trying to think of some other scenarios hat might work for all parties.

        What if Russ turns down $250 mil guaranteed and has an Alex Smith type injury this year?

        • H

          Exactly what if Wilson has an Alex Smith like Injury. The Seahawks would saddled with that contract for 10 years. They’d never ever offer a deal like that. Not would Wilson want it. Complete and total non-starter.

    • ZB

      Trevor….That’s only 25 million per year. I actually don’t think RW would take a 10 year 400 million dollar contract. Well he would if it was all Gteed.

    • Matt

      Great thought but I think the Numbers are out of whack.

      I think a 7 year $250M offer is interesting. A little over $35M/year. Gives him security while also allowing him a chance at 1 more decent sized contract, if that’s what he wants. Also gives him an opportunity to maybe test the market and go to a more competitive team.

      • Matt

        A) I don’t think he would take that.
        B) My personal thought is that we should trade him for a ransom. Pete Carroll is not going to change – a QB on a PC-led team can’t make that much money.

  19. UKAlex6674

    Trevor, you should change your user name to ‘Mad Trevor’!

    • Trevor

      Why Alex? Is it for proposing that 10 yr full guaranteed deal? I don’t think it is mad at all and could be an incredible bargain for the Hawks. Russ is 30 and with today’s QB rules does anyone really think he won’t play till he is 40?

      If the Hawks really believe he is the guy that type of deal makes the most sense for the team IMO. Funny thing is I bet Russ would turn it down and want more.

      If the Hawks really want to put pressure on Russ offering that deal to make him a Seahawk for life with $250 mil guaranteed would certainly do it.

      • ZB

        No way would he take 250 million guaranteed for 10 years. He is going to try and piece meal his deals out with franchise tags and 3 year deals and make a whole lot more than 250 mil.

  20. chavac

    I’d like to see them dig their heels in and stick to 33/34m over 3y. I get that he has been the most valuable player on this team for several years, but with so much other talent I don’t think 40m a year is something they should consider swallowing. Especially given the return to the running game, the improved pass protection, and a defense that is starting to look scary, I don’t know that you “need” to break the bank on that RW magic right now. We went to the SB twice because Russell Wilson was OK behind an incredible defense, not the other way around. Sure his agent is going to high-ball, but I say offer 33m x 3y (or 34m if you want to claim he refused the biggest contact) and leave the ball in his court. If they balk, then pay the defense, trade him or play him on franchise for two years, and use that time to find your next guy.

    On a side note I have to say I can’t say enough about this site. I’ve been following for over a decade and have seen it go from being the go-to place for draft insight to really what I consider the best Seahawks site on the internet. So many kudos for the amount of work you put in.

    • ZB

      I honestly don’t think JS will even consider $40 mil per year. My guess is that the contract will settle in the 36 mil neighborhood for 3 years if we even decide to go that far. I want Russ on this team. I want to at least get another SB. I just don’t see this happening if we pay him +$40 mil per.

  21. Michael Wood

    As stated previously…pay RW will cost the team any future, period. That cost is far too high for the team that is based on defense. RW is a “good” QB, but he is not worth a “top contract”. This is proven by the bad defense years where RW kept the hawks in the games, yet could finnish. In the end franchise greatness is counted in SB’s and RW is not going to carry a team to a SB like Tom Brady (I hate speaking well of that player). I am entertained by those that state the number of pro bowl RW has on his resume…you do realize half of them he was the alternate because the better QB didn’t play.

    • Rob Staton

      You remember Seattle’s record in 2011?

      And what’s it been since?

  22. CaptainJack

    Does Will Greir give anyone else major Baker Mayfield vibes?

    I know Mayfield is much better but I can’t shake off all these two have in common.

    • ZB

      He seems to have a bit of that Mayfield moxie about him.

  23. Hawksince77

    My (less than bold) predictions:

    1 – they don’t trade RW, ever. Why? Because they won’t get enough compensation to consider it, it’s never done in the league (trading elite QBs), it will be considered too risky, and the PR will be highly negative

    2 – they don’t sign RW to an extension, ever. Why? Because RW will insist on more than PC/JS will pay. Things are completely different now. Sure, RW agreed to a reasonable extension in the past because he wasn’t perceived to be the superstar he is now. Since that time he has performed at the highest levels, and everybody knows it. He is worth (based on the league and what other teams will pay) far more than Seattle will ever pay. He has zero reason not to take full advantage of his opportunity, and/or to compromise with Seattle.

    3 – maybe they sign Clark, maybe they don’t, and he is traded or plays on the tag. Either way, come next year, Seattle will lose more stars (if they tag RW, say, and let Wagner and/or Reed get priced off the team).

    4 – if RW remains on the team for the next three seasons, the Seahawks will struggle to make the playoffs, will over-achieve at best (like last year) and won’t sniff a championship. Why? Because they won’t have the draft capital or the cap space to improve the team from being ‘good’ to ‘great’ during 2019, 2020, and the 2021 season.

    5 – assuming RW gets tagged twice, 2021 will be his last year as a Seahawk. Why? Because that was the easiest, safest way for the team to manage RW’s contract (or lack of one) for those years.

    6 – when RW walks, they get back what they paid for him – a third round pick.

    • ZB

      I really hope these predictions don’t pan out.

      My hopes/prayers:

      -RW agrees to a 6 year 225 million dollar deal. With 130 mil guaranteed.


      -We find a trade partner willing to give us 3 first round picks in the next 12 months.

    • Trevor

      Really hope your predictions are wrong but based on thier recent actions in dealing with Sherman, Earl etc it is hard to argue with your logic. Hope they do something either way and don’t go that route.

      • Hawksince77

        I hope I am wrong as well.

    • Coleslaw

      Thanks for posting #4. Everybody wants to talk about how we’ll lose without Wilson, but nobody wants to talk about how we’ll lose more with him. We’re not going to sign all 4 of the big 4. If we do, the rest of the roster will be impacted heavily for years. We really would be like the Steelers, but with a worse offense and a worse defense. Better coaching and QB, everything else would be poor man’s Pittsburgh.

      No Wilson + Major draft capital + Major cap space >>>> Wilson + average draft capital + no cap space

      Football is not a 1 man sport and we can get like 5 players for what Wilson will earn….

      • Rob Staton

        of course they can sign all four.

        And they can win with all four signed too.

      • JohnH

        Unless one of those 5 players is a franchise quarterback we’re still going to be losing out.

    • Eli

      There’s an obvious caveat to looking to far into the future because things can change, but as of right now the Seahawks cap space is projected at:

      2020 – $84.6m (7th most in NFL)
      2021 – $151.4m (2nd most in NFL)
      2022 – $183.2m (most in NFL)

      These figures are courtesy of Spotrac and assume a static cap figure of $188.2m. The cap has been going up and probably will for the next couple years at least. Obviously these figures will come down some, but they could also remain in the ballpark depending on how much the cap balloons. We also have our full slate of draft picks going forward, and probably some comp picks coming to us also.

      So I don’t really get your argument regarding the fourth point. Everything available indicates the Seahawks will have the flexibility to figure this all out. We could sign all 4 if we really want to, and we could build a ‘great’ team around that. Just remains to be seen if that’s the path we decide to take.

      • Hawksince77

        Drafts don’t return full value in the first, sometimes the second year, often even later (Britt, Clark, Tate, Richardson, Kam, even Thomas, serve as examples off the top of my head). So to make an impact in the next three years (RW years if he plays on the tag without an extension) this coming draft is crucial. It becomes even more problematic if the Seahawks use one of their top picks (as Rob suggests) for a QB, draft capital completely non-impactful for those three years under this set of assumptions.

        As for the projected cap space you provide, those numbers simply represent players rolling off the team without being replaced, completely unrealistic. Also, as the cap rises, so does the demand for elite talent, raising the cost even further. Another reason why RW would be foolish to accept a long-term deal this year, when the upper limits are going to continue to rise.

        Even if Seattle could pay a certain player, they will be cautious to do so (or so they have shown). They won’t overpay for anyone.

        So the issue still exists, as projected, unmitigated.

        And I agree with Rob – this all gets fixed if RW is willing to sign a reasonable contract. But that’s the sticking point. Maybe I have RW pegged wrong, and he wants to stay ini Seattle and finish out his career here, willing to work a compromise with Seattle. If so, that’s great, and we will all be the happier.

  24. Trevor

    Rob what are your thoughts on a baseball contract for Wilson if that is what he wants 10 years between $250 and $300 million full guarenteed? Hawks get cost certainty and stability at QB postion for next decade. Russ gets record setting NFL contract altering deal. Agent gets to say he brought MLB type guarenteed deal to the NFL.

    Risk to Hawks – Russ gets injured or his play regresses drastically
    Risk to Russ- Gambling revenue and TV contracts drive salarary cap through the roof and he leaves too much $ on the table.
    Risk to agent -None

    • Rob Staton

      A baseball contract is a total non-starter. It’s not possible with the hard cap in the NFL, the lack of longevity players have, the physical demands and wouldn’t have any financial appeal for the Seahawks or Wilson anyway.

      The deal that suits both parties is a short term extension — three years, maybe two — that secures Seattle’s short term future at the position and allows Wilson to test the market again when the next CBA comes out.

      • charlietheunicorn

        There is NO incentive for the owners to start handing out 100% guaranteed contracts.
        If I were an owner, I would never do such a deal… for some of the reasons you described.

        Additionally, with the current salary cap, it would be impossible to fill out the team on a year to year basis. You would have to change to the NBA or MLB style salary cap and luxury tax situation…. which is just dumb.

        A 3 year deal may likely be the target range and Seattle is looking at more like a 5 year deal.
        Both would get him at least 1 more “bite of the apple”, but a 3 year deal gives him an outside shot at 2 more bites. Ultimately, RW could walk away with 500M total earnings by the end of the next 10 years.

    • Bigten

      Make it more around 450 mill over 10 years and I see him doing it. Increase the yearly cap hit to be 2 mill more than the prior starting at around 34-35. 215 guaranteed. Bu the 10th year he’s making 50 mil. I don’t think anyone will argue that in 10 years the market is going to be set at 50 mill for QBs.

    • Troy

      Mad Trevor strikes again…why would Wilson sign a deal that pays him 25 mil a year? When he knows he can pull 33 mil a year minimum currently? As Rob has said, Rus is comfortable betting on himself. This contract process is going to suck for Seahawks fans, of this I am sure.

      • Trevor

        He would sign it for the same reason Bryce Harper and Mike Trout just signed 10 year deals for less annual $ than they could going back into free agency every 3 years. A quarter of a Billion + guarenteed even if he has a careeer ending injury in next year. That is why you sign that type of deal. It is the type of $ that not only changes your life but the lives of your families for generations to come.

        I get why the Hawks would not do it because it opens Pandora’s box for the owners but if Russell Wilson turned down $250-300 mil guarenteed he would be crazy IMO I dont care how confident he is in himself.

        Troy you nailed it this whole process is really going to suck because no scenario I have seen presented so far is a good one for the fans and team.

        Sign him to a big deal and keep your franchise QB and it is incredibly hard to build a quality roster around him. Trade him and it is incredibly hard to find another quality QB.

        I just hope something gets done before the season starts either way.

        Glad Rob is focussing on the draft not Wilson for a while 🙂

  25. Volume12

    This dude has possible Seahawk day 3 corner written all over him. Just dripping with potential and upside.

    ‘Bama’s Saivion Smith (6’1, 200 lbs.) Great tackler, his stab move is beautiful.

    vs Mizzou(2018):

    • Volume12

      Saivion Smith vs Auburn(2018):

      • D-OZ

        About time someone brought Saivion. Doesn’t surprise me it’s you V-12. He played well in the Championship game. I also like him a lot.

    • Trevor

      I agree Vol and you have to think Pete would like that he has been coached by nick.

      The DB class is kind of like the WR group. No real superstars but a ton of really good depth in this draft.

  26. Stephen Pitell

    Good summary of the situation, and I appreciate the point is to eventually get a new contract to keep Wilson, and not to maximize trade value.

    However, I am sort of enthralled with Murray as a replacement, and cannot help but think Arizona is not that enthralled with drafting Murray with their first pick since they took a while to decide they would actually pick him. I think they decided that based upon the likely chance that every team behind Arizona would jump at the chance to draft him. So if I’m PC/JS I’d float a trade offer to Arizona for their first pick and more for RW just to see if they are interested. There aren’t likely many other QB’s they would consider in a trade for picks and it would be interesting to see how much they’d give up for him.

    It would be a ballsy thing to do, but it might be the best possible gamble a team could make to vault into a situation where multiple SB’s could be possible.

    • Rob Staton

      To be fair… how do we know Arizona took a while? Kliff Kingsbury clearly liked him all along. Any indecision might’ve been because they only drafted a QB last year in round one. And that’s understandable. It’d be more concerning if the Cardinals hadn’t taken their time on making a judgement. Yet for all we know they settled on Murray within minutes of him declaring for the draft.

      The last thing I’m doing is trading Wilson within the NFC West. I’m a huge Kyler Murray fan but there’s no way I’m making that deal. And I doubt Arizona would be interested anyway. Murray is talented enough to warrant investing in and they can take him at #1. It’d cost loads of picks and money to get Wilson.

  27. New Guy

    Have Schneider talk with Gruden and have him trade with AZ for the top pick. Only Oakland has enough draft capital (current and future) to do this and then trade Murray to the Seahawks. It gets Wilson out of the NFCW.

    The final finessing of who gets what for all three teams could only be speculation currently. But if there is a will, there is a way. I’ll bet Russ wouldn’t mind having Las Vegas as a home base for a while. Gruden could potentially have Russ for the rest of his contract period.

    It’d be interesting to see the ‘Hawks and LV Raiders meet in the Super Bowl in two or three seasons. It’d be an interesting match-up. Russ with his experience and smarts vs. a younger and slightly more talented Murray surrounded by a Seahawks team that’s had plenty of cap space and draft picks to build up a strong team with an experienced head coach and solid organization.


  28. millhouse-serbia

    The Mychal Kendricks sentencing scheduled for April 4 has been postponed per the Eastern District of Pennsylvania.

    At this time no new date for the sentencing hearing has been scheduled.

  29. charlietheunicorn

    Rob (and the gang)

    Are you surprised at who is still available as a FA right now?
    There are 2 BIG NAME DL still available and 2 or 3 RBs which could be of interest to Seattle….
    is Ansah really that banged up that he can’t play anymore? IF you could wiggle him in as the bookend DE…. and he can still play decently, would be a solidifying force on the DL.

    Could all these guys be left out of the feeding frenzy, until after the comp pick period is completed?

    • DCD2

      “Could all these guys be left out of the feeding frenzy, until after the comp pick period is completed?”

      That would be my thought. I think at this point, there isn’t any urgency to sign any of the guys still available knowing that any contracts at this point scrub one of our comp picks.

      There are a host of teams that don’t stand to get any comp picks next year however. The Bills, Jets, Jags, Colts, Titans, Cowboys, Raiders, Lions, Packers, Falcons, Saints, Bucs, Cardinals, 9ers have all put themselves into a position that signing additional FA’s won’t impact them. That’s almost half the league, many of whom have ample cap space.

      As a Hawks fan, I’ve been appreciative of the restraint shown thus far in FA. If we can hold our water, we’ll have 11 picks in next years draft, for the first time in ages. I’m loving that prospect.

    • Rob Staton

      At this stage I’m out on any player that costs us either the 2020 third or fourth round comp pick we’ve gained.

      • Simo

        What’s the actual date teams can sign the remaining FA’s without losing comp picks? Can’t imagine the Hawks want to mess with that for who’s still available.

        Prof Clayton said that because Mo Alexander signed for $1,375m, the Hawks can sign another FA for up to $2.5m and still retain the four comp picks next year (rds 3, 4, 6, 7). Anyone of interest fit that number?

        Nothing new on Jordy Nelson? Since he was cut, wouldn’t even affect the comp picks. Guess Pete/John don’t think he has enough left, or he wants to much dough.

        • DCD2

          Last year it was the 2nd Tuesday after the draft.

        • Rob Staton

          I think it’s after the draft

      • Trevor

        Agree completely keep all that draft capital! Wait till after the deadline so it does not count against comp picks and look for some guys to round out the roster after the draft.

        Will be so nice next year to have 10-11 picks before any trade backs.

  30. DCD2

    If we were to offer him, let’s say a 2 year extension at roughly what the cap numbers are going to be would that work? He’s going to get $31 + $37 = $68, right?

    How about a 2 year $70M extension?

    Spreading the cap hit over 3 take his number up a bit this year, but is lower for the next two.
    It’s money that we likely are looking at paying him anyway.
    It locks in his guarantees for injury and even is a bump over what the tags would pay.
    It makes him the highest paid QB in AAV.
    It frees up the tag for the next two years for Clark/Wags/Reed.
    It opens the tag option back up for Russ in 2022 after the new CBA, meaning we have 5 years of control and can get a successor in place.

    Maybe that’s a compromise that RW’s camp could live with.

  31. Trevor

    We finally release Malik McDowell and now his agent comes out and says he has been cleared by inpedendant doctors to play? Seriously what is up with that?

    Worst pick in the PC/JS era keeps getting worse and just weird.

    • Aaron

      Who??? Moving on…

    • JohnH

      Just because he got some Dr Nick to sign off on him playing, doesn’t mean that any actual NFL team doctor would.

      And really, worst pick? That’s just ludicrous hyperbole. Kid had a freak accident. Stuff happens. PCJS don’t have a crystal ball to look into the future.

      • Rob Staton

        Just laughed out loud at the thought of Malik McDowell walking into some back door hospital and saying, “Hi Doctor Nick!”

        • cha

          “HI EVERYBODY!”

      • Trevor

        I almost feel bad for him and find it hard to even joke about anymore. How could any doctor sign off on him playing if there was any doubt at all. Sounds crazy to me.

        If he has a serious brain injury like that and is trying to get some doctor to sign off on letting him play it is both sad and a little scary. For his sake I hope no team lets him take that risk. I will always be bummed about the pick but you never want to see a guy risk his long term health and well being.

  32. TCHawk

    The last time RW’s contract was up it was protracted. One of the reported reasons (I think I remember it coming out in a comment from JS when questioned during a radio interview) was Seattle wanted a 4 year extension and RW’s camp only wanted 3 years so they could take a sooner bite of the apple again when the other QBs’ salaries had grown. I think this is the same scenario now. I’d like to see Wilson on a 6-year extension to solidify the position, etc., but that seems to be only a fan’s dream scenario.

    3 years, $105 million, that’s my prediction. No trade; PC/JS like what they have.

  33. Sea Mode

    Since V12 and others were talking about Saivion Smith above, I thought I’d point out that Pauline mentioned Seahawks interest in him a few days ago in his podcast.

    A lot of teams like Smith as a last-day sleeper. The New Orleans Saints, the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Seattle Seahawks, and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are at the top of the list for those who are very interested in Smith. He’s a long, physical corner that goes about 6’1″, 200 lbs. Slightly disappointing, running a 4.58 second in the 40 [at his pro day], but teams like his game and his upside. Let’s not forget: Richard Sherman was a long, physical corner who ran in the mid 4.5’s when he came out of Stanford. Ended up as a 3rd-day pick. And a lot of people see similarities in Smith’s game compared to Sherman’s game at equal points in their career.
    (16:12 mark)

  34. Saxon

    Am I the only one completely unbothered by Wilson’s contract situation? I appreciate all the work Rob has done elucidating the dilemma and its impact on our roster priorities but it still seems premature to worry. We have other fires to attend to right now: the draft, Wagner, and Clark….possibly even Chris Carson getting a raise.

    • Rob Staton

      They can’t actually give Carson a raise for 12 months. As a drafted rookie he has to wait three years before he can sign any kind of new contract.

      I promise to move on from the Wilson stuff for a while (or at least until there’s an update) but I do think it’s the one big issue that dwarfs every other strand involving the Seahawks until it’s resolved, one way or another.

  35. Greg Haugsven

    Mychal Kendricks sentencing delayed again. If they wanted to potentially release Mingo to save $4+ million not sure they can now not knowing Kendricks fate.

  36. Rob Staton

    New article posted on Jace Sternberger’s visit and Nick Perry meeting with the Seahawks.

  37. neil

    I agree with Largent80…Your average working family guy is getting priced out of attending a game. like just about everything else in this country, it will be for the rich only. Ticket prices will increase radically to cover Russ’s contract.

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