Over the last couple of days I’ve done a couple of things I want to highlight today. Firstly, I took part in a Q&A on the Seahawks draft with Stephen Cohen from the Seattle PI. We go into a lot of detail on the class and the options for the Seahawks.
Secondly, I was invited onto the Seahawkers Podcast to talk about the draft with two weeks to go. You can listen here:
Also I wanted to compare mocks today using Daniel Jeremiah’s latest projection. It’s important to look at other mock drafts and see if there are players we don’t expect to fall who might be available.
Jeremiah had the following players available that we had off the board in our updated mock yesterday:
Kevin Dodd (DE, Clemson)
Andrew Billings (DT, Baylor)
Vernon Butler (DT, Louisiana Tech)
Jonathan Bullard (DE, Florida)
Will Fuller (WR, Notre Dame)
Keanu Neal (S, Florida)
The following players were available in both mocks:
Germain Ifedi (T, Texas A&M)
Mackensie Alexander (CB, Clemson)
Jason Spriggs (T, Indiana)
Derrick Henry (RB, Alabama)
Dodd, Butler, Bullard and Henry have all visited with the Seahawks per reports. Tom Cable worked out Ifedi at the Texas A&M pro-day.
Based on that information it’d be an intriguing scenario for the Seahawks with at least a couple of legitimate D-line options to go along with Ifedi and Spriggs. Such a proposition might encourage them to move down — even if it was just a few spots.
Jeremiah actually has the Seahawks selecting Mississippi State’s Chris Jones. Is it an option?
Jones tested fairly athletically for his size (6-6, 311lbs) running a 4.62 shuttle and a 7.44 three cone. Those numbers compare favourably to Willie Henry, a player who could go in round two.
A 24.5 inch vertical however is very disappointing and alongside an 8-10 broad jump doesn’t hint at an explosive physical profile.
Perhaps the greatest evidence that he won’t be a Seahawk, however, is this observation by an unnamed scout:
“He could easily be in the top 50 but he is such a dog,” said another scout. “He’s an underachiever. Very good ability.”
I’m not sure the word “underachiever” screams Seahawks first round pick. Jones admitted he didn’t try hard enough in 2014 and as a former #2 overall recruit — he never truly hit the marks expected of him.
With so many intense, amped up D-liners in this class (Vernon Butler and Jonathan Bullard were both available in Jeremiah’s mock) this seems like an unlikely fit.
There might also be further movement in the top ten according to Jason La Canfora:
Goff was and is the Browns' guy, but with him gone their interest in dealing out of the second pick has intensified.
— Jason La Canfora (@JasonLaCanfora) April 15, 2016
La Canfora even suggests the Titans are working hard to move back into the top ten.
It might be difficult for the Browns to get a deal done. The Rams were motivated to get ahead of Cleveland to select their preferred quarterback. Does anyone really expect San Diego, Dallas, Jacksonville or Baltimore to go QB?
Why would you need to move up to #2?
Even though there’s a fairly established top group of around 8-10 prospects — this could be one of the more unpredictable drafts in recent history.
I think the Rams want Goff, purely because he’s in a better position to start day 1 than Carson Wentz.
If the Rams select Carson and plan on him being the guy week 1, this is going to be a disaster for them. I like Wentz a ton, but I cannot for the life of me see him being ready to play in the NFL early this year.
Agree with you re Goff. He’s just better. It’s funny how there is a strange kind of separation between national media guys and other analysts. If you listen to most national guys you get the feeling Wentz is definitely better. But when you listen to a bunch of “secondary” analysts who seem to devote more time to analytics, historical markers, etc., Goff seems to be the overwhelming choice (I’m talking about groups such as Inside the Pylon, Mocking the Draft, NFL Draft Geek, RSP, Football Outsiders, etc.). I know Jeremiah used to be in scouting, so I’m not suggesting he’s a talking head, it’s just strange to see the divide.
What I think I know as of now. Goff goes #1, Browns don’t take QB.
And I honestly don’t think we go OL with our #1.
Our number one will likely be in the second round
Part of me wants them to take Ryan Kelly at 26 and be done with it. I doubt they do that though. There’s some good defensive players that might be around for the taking. I highly doubt they take a tackle at 26, and frankly I’m not sure I want them to.
My money is on an o-linemen early that can play center though, McGovern or Dahl.
I’d prefer the best Center in the draft to someone that will have to learn the position.
There seems to be a misconception that the center you’re referring to won’t need to ‘learn the position’.
When Tom Cable says he needs to coach rookie linemen up from scratch, I suspect he doesn’t mean ‘apart from center’s that go to Alabama’.
‘Bama’s scheme is not pro-style. Kiffin was brought in by Saban to incorporate spread influences. He believed you had to now score points to win — even as a SEC power house. Kiffin has moved Bama towards the rest of the NCAA. Spread out concepts, high octane passing. They scaled that back a bit in 2015 only because Coker is kind of crappy and Henry is excellent.
The Ryan Kelly hype is off the charts at the moment.
Can you imagine our defense next year if the Hawks could figure out a way to get Neal and Rankins. I know it is next to impossible but with those two guys I think the D would even be better than 2013 which I think was a top 5 defense of all time.
Anyways just fantasy land but hard not to love those two guys.
If Rob and others are right about Rankins, I really really really hope he falls to us.
Where would Neal play? SAM? He’s not replacing Kam.
Presumably a deathbacke- type role similar to what Buchanan plays for the Cardinals, and Barron for the Rams. The Hawks are only in their base defence about 50% of the time as is, they’d find so many ways to use a guy like him. If he’s there at 26 I hope they run to the podium.
I think it would only take Neal one season on this defense to surpass Kam. Kam wasn’t that good last year and with his self centeredness off the field, a player like Neal could easily usurp him
IMO this a strong recency bias combined with frustration over his holdout. Seems crazy to me to say that based on one down year a probowl/all-pro player is going to be surpassed by a college kid who hasn’t yet played a down in the NFL.
Jarhead, Kam will have a career year this year, mark it down! I don’t think he will ever have a bigger chip on his shoulder.
Rob love that you are spreading your wings and start to get recognition on other sites for your great work and knowledge on all things Seahawks Draft. Great stuff!
I agree Trevor. It almost feels like it’s your friend getting that recognition. Pretty cool.
Thanks guys 🙂
Where would we be without this site? Where would we air out our agreements and differences? Those other comment boards pale in comparison!
Well said Abdou. There are plenty of times in here that people will disagree and that’s OK. But we’re all 12’s and we’ll be on the same team come week 1 when we open up a can on the Dolphins.
Hear, hear!
Perfectly said Greg!
Jones jumped 29.5 inches in the vertical at his pro day, showing that he has solid lower body explosion. He also did pretty well in the agility tests (as stated), and had a 10 yard split of 1.69 seconds, a tremendous result for his size. His best attribute is his length/frame. He’s 6’6″, 310, with an 85″ wingspan, tops of all defensive linemen at the combine. Altogether, he has an elite athletic profile. He is attending the draft, and is considered a first round prospect according to Tony Pauline’s latest reports on him. The anonymous scout’s observation of Jones as an “underachiever” may be a lazy one based on prior years’ tape. His 2015 tape is awesome. IMO, the questions about his effort/maturity aren’t keeping him out of the first round, but are rather keeping him from top 10 consideration. It remains to be seen if the Seahawks are considering him, but I think he is the most dominant DT in this draft class. His best games were against Missouri and Arkansas, and the rest of his tape on draftbreakdown.com is very impressive as well. I broke down his best plays against Missouri, below:
Chris Jones vs Missouri, 2015 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vguCmKduWrY
0:02 – The play is designed for a quick pass to the left. The protection called for the RG to pull to the left and have the center slide right to block Jones. Jones shows ridiculous burst off the snap, and shoots the gap. Even the RB in pass pro can’t get in front of Jones. Destroys the QB in less than 1.5 seconds, forcing an incompletion on an otherwise easy first down.
0:08 – Gets doubled by the C & RG. Has a strong burst to get sandwiched in their gap. Holds his pass rushing lane and shows exceptional power to push the double team 5+ yards behind the LOS, right to the QB’s central pocket position. The stunt with the other DT comes in free despite him moving across 2 gaps, which is in large part due to Jones causing so much disruption on the double team.
0:29 – RB screen. Again, Jones’ excellent burst off the snap is evident. He gets tripped up pushing through, but is mainly responsible for the QB needing to back up 6 yards out of shotgun to give him time to throw the screen. Incompletion.
0:59 – rushes up the A gap and destroys the double team by the C & RG, driving them 5 yards back before he gets tripped up. Forces the QB to take off and run outside for no gain.
1:07 – quick pass play, but look how quickly Jones bursts off the line to get himself into the middle of the double team, and how easily he powers through it.
1:45 – Poor pad level & leverage allows the double team to push Jones back, however the extra attention he gets allows his teammates to gang tackle the RB for no gain.
1:58 – Protection breakdown allows Jones to brush RG aside and rush straight to QB. Insane burst off the snap and acceleration into the backfield. A man with that size, length and frame should not be able to move like that. Shoots too high on the tackle, and QB somehow stays upright taking 2 simultaneous hits. The QB is still driven back over 10 yards, and completes a pass for about a 6 yards loss.
2:19 – Bursts through his gap on a 2nd & 1 run play, forcing the RB to juke immediately upon getting the handoff. Teammates clean-up for 1 yard gain.
2:36 – Single-teamed rushing from the nose. Immediately gets his hands into the C, and swims around him. Instant pressure on the QB, but shoots too high on the tackle again. Holds the QB long enough to allow a teammate to clean up the sack.
2:45 – Rushes off the edge. Beautiful spin move on the RT to get instant pressure on the QB
2:58 – Lines up at 1T and uses his length/strength to maintain his gap throughout the entire run. 2 teammates on either side of him get the TFL.
3:07 – Rushes upfield off the edge. Jones sees the handoff, slides back inside, tackles the RB for a short gain. Textbook.
3:17 – uses length/power to quickly bull rush and shed the RG to get instant pressure. Gets held from behind by the RG, otherwise Jones may have got the sack.
3:57 – Lines up at 1T and Jones’ burst off the snap is simply too quick for the RG. Adds a nice swim move to get completely by the RG, and the C is too slow to help with the double-team. Instant pressure ends with a Jones sack.
4:48 – Crosses the face of the RG while pushing 3 yards into backfield to follow the handoff & make the TFL. Huge individual effort to blow up the run.
5:20 – Good timing on the stunt, and then great burst to get immediate pressure on the QB. Forces the throwaway on the QB hit.
Love his upside! Gotta learn to play with his knees bent. In our rotation, he would avoid much of the fatigue that caused him to take plays off. His wins are absolutely dominating, at times.
The average vertical jump for this D-line class is 31 inches.
29.5 is below average for the group. He doesn’t have an elite athletic profile, he ran a 1.70 split at the combine which is good and his shuttle wasn’t bad (not great). Elite is severely pushing it.
There’s no basis to say the NFL’s scouts report is lazy to be fair. What is more likely — that this NFL Scout knows a lot more than we do having put in the hours? Or that he spoke without authority and made a poor judgement based on a previous assumption?
29.5″ is in the 48th percentile for DT’s according to mockdraftable, which is average. It also was his weakest of all the measurements & athletic tests. His combine 10-split of 1.69* is in the 87th percentile, and his 3-cone was very impressive as well (the more important agility test for defensive linemen). When you factor in his size, length & frame, he very much has an elite athletic profile.
*http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=127441&draftyear=2016&genpos=DT
I take most of the anonymous scouts’ reports with a massive grain of salt this time of year, but definitely disagree with this one’s take regardless. (Sorry if this double posts)
But all you’re basing his elite athletic profile on is a ten yard split.
JT — we know you like Chris Jones. We don’t have to have the same debate every time.
it’s based in the package of elite length, frame, power and burst, while being solid/average or better in both the agility and explosion department.
You’re right about the debate though. I don’t want to argue. I just posted to go over some great tape of a prospect who fits the draft range at a position of need for Seattle.
Like Jones’ ability to knife through the line and create instant penetration. He flashes big time talent fairly regularly. The things I don’t like about him- low motor, underachiever- move him way down the board. A player who lacks the passion to be great and admits he dogged it is not the type of player JS/PC wants on the team at all. Internal fire to succeed is one of the biggest traits that we target. To my eyes and ears Jones does not have the fire. Unfortunately.
That’s definitely a concern. His draft-ability at 26 will have lots to do with interviews conducted with the Hawks’ brass
I doubt even that would save him.
“I didn’t give 100% in college but I promise I will when you pay me millions of dollars”
That might be paraphrasing…
Interestingly, that’s almost exactly what Trent Williams said before he was drafted, and it’s turned out to be true. It would be a bit subjective, but it would be interesting to do a sort of long-term study of prospects about whom it was said they had poor effort. See how they turned out. I know it was said of Nick Fairley….and it’s continued even now.
Not banging the table for Jones or anything, but I certainly wouldn’t want to work for free.
Sorry not a fan @26. Misses too many play’s for me. Not enough passion.
Being big does not make you elite physically.
He’s big with a decent split. Nothing else about his physical profile stands out. Below average vertical, didn’t achieve a 9″ broad jump, slower short shuttle than several others in this class. He ran a decent three cone.
I think we exhausted this last time.
Not size alone, no. But I think you’re really discounting the importance of length towards a player’s athletic profile. The Hawks value it a ton at all levels of the defense, not just CB. Another way of looking at it is Jones has no weakness athletically, while having huge advantages in terms of his length, burst and size/power.
Rankins is the other elite athlete at DT worth of first round consideration. They have virtually the exact same results in the 10, 3-cone and SS. Rankins has elite explosion (while Jones is average), but has mediocre length, he’s very short, has small hands and gives up 11 lbs to Jones.
Perhaps “elite” is the wrong word, since neither have the top-end athletic profile of an athlete like JJ Watt: http://www.mockdraftable.com/player/591/
However they are both very strong NFL athletes.
Come on JT, Rankins is on a different level in terms of explosive athleticism.
His broad jump is 9-10 vs 8-10. His vertical is 34.5 vs 29.5. They test similar in terms of agility — but Rankins is far, far, more explosive. He is the exact same height as Aaron Donald, he’s similarly as explosive and yet he carries 15lbs more.
Jones doesn’t have any of these explosive qualities. Again, this entire debate is just going round in circles. Jones ran a nice split and he’s long. There’s nothing elite about his cumulative physical profile.
I think we’ve exhausted this debate well and truly now.
Don’t forget to account for schlong size in the ‘cumulative physical profile’. Jones had that on display at the combine more than anyone.
I am a big Jones fan, but I don’t think this scout was lazy. You can see Jones loafing on several plays, even when he has big games. I don’t think it’s a matter of being happy to just stand up and hug his guy, but he really fails to chase on many plays that are away from him.
This is one of his weaknesses, although I’ve seen instances where he shows great effort throughout the whole play.
The second weakness is his tendency to try and shoot the gap every play, even on obvious running plays. This allows him to make some great plays in the backfield, but gap integrity is the priority in Seattles base 4-3 defense.
The third weakness is playing too high against double teams against the run, causing him to get pushed backwards. Deforest Buckner has the same problem.
These weaknesses make me think he’d need coaching and development to be a full time player. However I think he could already be a difference making pass rusher in nickel, which the Hawks play in over half their snaps.
If you need a quarterback, #2 pick is always the worst place (provided #1 also needs a QB, or trades out to someone who needs one). Browns can’t win for losing. Not that I think Goff will be great or anything. Silly Rams (I hope).
I’m kind of hoping they can trade down, and the titans trade up. I’m enjoying the spectacle.
Rob,
The Titans trade opened up a potential new trading partner. I saw you respond to a commenter in yesterday’s post that it doesn’t make sense to trade all the way down to 43 or 45 and I understand your rationale. However, what about trading back to 33? The following trade would net the Seahawks an extra 3rd round pick:
Seahawks receive: 33, 64, 76, 140
Titans receive: 26, 56, 124, 225
I know that looks super-complicated, but basically, the Seahawks can pick up an extra 3rd round pick (#76 overall) by trading back 7 spots from their 1st rounder, 8 spots from their 2nd rounder, 16 spots from their 4th round pick and throwing in their 7th rounder. That sounds like a lot, I know, but what if that extra player that we’d gain at 76 is somebody like Tyler Ervin or Joe Dahl or Joe Haeg? Do you think that’s worth it? That would give the Seahawks four 3rd round picks (64, 76, 90, 97).
It sounds a bit too complicated to be honest.
The numbers for draft pick value just don’t seem to work, no matter how I cut it, unless a 2017 2nd ro 3rd round pick were involved, then for the 2 mid 2nd round picks, Seattle could give up the 1st this year and have 3 bullets in the second round…. to take 2 OL and a player to be named later (a wildcard). I’m not sure the Titans would want to give up the chance on 2 starters for 1 guy…. I’m not even sure who they would target.
I think the Eagles (or team in that range) might be willing to swap 1st round picks and a 2nd and 3rd with the Titans…. they then would be in the top 10 pick range again and get a better player for the pick value. Not a blue chip guy, but a very good player that would fit the team better.
Another possible trade:
Seahawks receive: 33, 64
Titans receive: 26, 90, 225
Basically, for the cost of a 7th rounder and moving back 7 spots from #26, we could trade up nearly an entire round from #90 to #64. Would you do that? I know it’s risky to move back 7 spots that early in the draft, but what if you could rise 26 spots from the back of round 3 to the very first pick of round 3?
I like this scenario better because it seems like round 3 has a bunch of quality players and we just lose a 7th rounder. Like it always is mentioned, only so many guys can make the roster, so we might as well get the guys we really want. while we don’t lose much by moving back 7 spots in the 1st because We will still have the same quality of “2nd round talent”. But, who would the Titans really want to draft in the first to make this happen?
I’m thinking the Browns might trade up a tiny bit, from 32 to 26 to snag a WR (Doctson perhaps)…. not sure what they would give up… perhaps a 3rd or 4th round pick, but this seems very likely imo.
I think they are going to have to move a couple picks to get some guys they want this year. Pretty normal but you don’t see those multiple draft pick trades very often right? It’s usually a couple picks for one higher pick. Rarely 3 picks for one pick like for Lockett last year. I think they plan a certain way for the picks they have and just switching a bunch of them up might make things weird for other picks plans but if they have to move up to get a guy they think they need to get ahead of a couple teams for, you see those moves, it’s all how their board looks. Definitely would be rad to get another 2nd or 3rd rounder this year. Man would I love to be in the room and hear how these decisions go down. #pumpedforthedraft
Have a feeling we trade up in the 3rd round again this year. Not the huge move up like the Lockett deal though. If we have say 5 players we like at 56, and one of them falls to 70-75 moving up makes a lot of sense.
Can’t wait for the draft! Just 2 more weeks!
The reason someone else would come up to 2 might be because they fear someone else doing the same thing.
One week Jeremiah has Dodd going in the top 10. Now Jeremiah has Dodd available at 26. Go figure.
I still think if he is there, The Seahawks will take him. They love high-motor, pass rushers
With up-side potential.
Nothing to do with Seahawks draft, but just for fun, to make the Rams-Titans trade less abstract, I ran a draft simulation as the Titans. Used NFL.com’s rankings, tried to keep it realistic. I don’t know much about the Titans (scheme, etc.), so I just used a list of their team needs from another site. This is the kind of haul we are talking about:
R1: Ronnie Stanley
R2: J. Bullard
R2: Josh Doctson
R2: Chris Jones
R3: Xavien Howard
R3: Deion Jones
Crazy.
That would be a sick draft!
Yup!
Now, we do have to keep in mind that the very reason the Titans had the #1 overall pick, and were able to fleece the Rams for so much in return, was because their roster was so bereft of talent in the first place! LOL
Excited about the Titans draft too. Like your picks for the a lot RealRhino. Decided to do a 3 round mock for them for kicks as well. Using the same NFL.com board:
1- Conklin
2- Apple
2-Keanu Neal
2-Chris Jones
3-Ryan Kelly
3-Deion Jones
They’re primed to collect an major influx of talent.
Ment to post this on the last thread… the Chargers are big winners with the Rams moving into the #1 spot. With QB’s likely going in the top 2 picks they’ll have the opportunity to draft a can’t miss LT in Tunsil or uber talented CB/S Ramsey. Tunsil would fix a lot of their long standing problems on the OL. Protecting the statuesque Rivers and opening holes for Gordon has to be at the top of their list of needs. Ramsey is a day 1 impact DB who can do it all. Being a long time Charger fan I’d like to see them plug Tunsil in at LT for the next decade. They can’t lose picking either player though.
I think Cleveland loses out in this Rams-Titans trade, because I personally think they want Wentz (big, has a strong arm and big hands). I think the Rams will pick Wentz.
However, I do think there’s a chance Cleveland could trade out of that #2 overall slot and address their (many) other needs.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2632462-browns-2016-nfl-draft-rumors-latest-news-buzz-and-speculation-on-no-2-pick
Exactly, now that the Rams are heavily rumored to want Wentz, the Browns want out of #2 overall. The Rams stole their guy!
Think the browns are leaking b.s. reports on Goff. Trying to get L.A. to panic and let them grab Wentz at 2
Hope it works
Could you expand on that point a little more Kenny Sloth please. I don’t quite understand it.
How would Cleveland, or any team, starting rumors affect who LA is going to take? LA has to know exactly who they’re going to take at #1. Why would they make that huge trade up if they aren’t positive who they want?
Cleveland often doesn’t know what it wants. And they’ve stuck true to form, as their FO admitted they haven’t decided who they’re going to take yet. No reason for misdirection by them since they pick first.
I think they want Goff.
According to this article from NFL.com they appear to want Goff more:
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000653513/article/rams-topsecret-qb-tour-bred-blockbuster-trade-for-no-1-pick
Evidently because he had a great workout in the rain, throwing a wet ball. This is, of course, important since the Rams now play in cloudy, rainy LA.
Haha…Rams.
They have to play here, though.
Rams are just messing with people or are enjoying the publicity, they must know who they want. Such a difference between our FO and theirs. If it was Pete he’d just say, “Yeah, we’re taking so and so.”
And then of course no one would believe him.
I hope the RAMS then turn around and trade the #1 for a boat load of picks from another team…… it would be a beautiful chaotic scene at the 2016 draft.
I don’t because that would help the Rams. I like watching them go 7-9 almost every year (except when they beat us).
I know all the logic, need and roster all point to OL and DL, but I can’t shake the feeling that Fuller’s big play ability and 4.3 40 will be too much for Pete and John to resist, and they’ll feel like they’ll find the Big Uglies later.
Of course, I think they probably also have their eye on Shepard, so the inverse of this may be true. In short, haven’t a clue. Back to wait and see mode.
I can’t see it with Richardson set to come back. And with resigning Kearse.
Not a fan of WR early (1-3rd rounds anyways)
But stating its unlikely because of Prich coming back might be putting the cart before the horse. I will be happy if he contributes but I don’t see it. Tore his ACL in college and now in the pros. From what I remember ACLs get weaker don’t the Year? I mean the more they’re injured or did I hear wrong?
Curious, anybody have any idea how the compensatory pick will be for Okung? Didn’t he get a 40milliom $$$$contract??
53million. Just checked, is this some rad loop hole? What if he cuts cut? He still signed a 53million$$$ contract right? That would be a 3rd rounder right?
Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but the Okung comp. pick will only be good if the Broncos exercise his team option, right? They won’t do that so the Okung situation won’t do the Seahawks much good. Signing Webb pretty much cancels it out to a degree. The contract Okung signed was not ideal in terms of the Seahawks getting a good pick out of the deal. It’s far from a Byron Maxwell situation, that’s for sure.
I believe the only way he factors in is if he hits all his incentives and gets to $8 mil for next year. It still wouldn’t add to our comp pick total. Would just supplant sweezy I think
Okung actually signed a 1-year contract for $5million. The $53 million contract is a yearly team option contract. So it really is nothing but a 1-year contract.
Okung’s salary at this point is valued at $4million at Over The Cap. Unfortunately, Sowell ($1 million contract for 2016) currently cancels out Okung’s 6th round pick. Okung has virtually NO guaranteed money, so the Broncos don’t even have to let him make the team. I highly, highly doubt that the Broncos will pay him $12 million for 2017. Chances are the Hawks get a 6th rounder for Okung but it would be cancelled out anyway.
I’m not that sure we’ll see Sowell in the final 53. He is a classic JS backup add on.
If they are happy with at least one of their OL draft picks, they have their starting 5 and a good backup without Sowell. If Sowell does not impress beyond expectations in train camp, why keep him as the 7th O-Liner at 1M a year and a comp pick?
He is a 200K insurance policy.
Bingo.
I also believe that Siliga and even Clem are on the same status. 200K guarantied and lets see how things work out after training camp.
This year is not great as far as edge rushers but very deep at DT and OL. My bet is that Clem holds on and Sowell + Siliga are gone. Next year looks like a great edge rushers year and Clem will get us there safely and cheaply.
Rob stated that “I think the great thing for the Seahawks is that it kind of fits in with their biggest needs”. That is not a just a fluke. It’s part of how they construct their multi-year strategy.
Knowing the strengths of future draft classes dictate how you manage your roster. With a year like this one it was easy not to extend Okung/Sweezy/Mebane, sign a few cheap backups as insurance and competition and go get your guys on the draft.
Also, for some reason nobody calculates Bailey’s 3 year 2M per year into the comp evaluation. He gets Sowell + Siliga yearly income.
While I’d love to believe the Seahawks were that plugged in to construct a ‘multi-year strategy’, I have a hard buying your idea that they’re playing 3 dimensional chess.
Look, there’s no way to predict two seasons in advanced which positions a draft would be particularly strong in. There’s just no way. You have no idea who will have an up or down year, who will be making themselves eligible for the draft or finishing school based on where they’ll be drafted, and that will be heavily dependent on their performance in the last season played.
Just way too many unknowable variables two seasons in advanced to be gaming out which positions a draft would be strong in with any degree of certainty. At least not that it’d have any real predictive value to formulate a team’s draft and free agent strategy around.
I think he was signed to add assurances of some competition for LT. If he shows up looking great in camp and preseason, bonus, if not, no big. Even if they don’t take OT at 26, I think they walk out of this draft with one. Webb is kind of the guy I think they signed to potentially be the starter.
Exactly.
They want Gilliam, Sowell, Webb, Britt, top OL pick to battle for LT/RT/LG/swing backup.
Right now it’s LT=Gilliam, LG=Britt, RT=Webb.
Gotta say I still don’t understand the Sowell and Webb signings. Neither guys fits the athletic profile the Hawks look for as Rob has clearly pointed out as both had awful TEF scores. They also both have awful tape. Webb is a serviceable Guard but was a disaster at OT. Those two signing just basically eliminated two comp picks as well.
Maybe before training camp the other moves they make will help clarify these two moves but as of right now I just don’t get it.
They do have a clear pattern of what they look for in the draft, but when it comes to signing free agents or trading for veterans – they don’t really care about the college numbers anymore. They only care about NFL production or potential they see in a veteran. Although the Sowell tape isn’t great, it was early in his career and they must see something they at least like a little to sign him the way they did.
This is a central point in my counterargument against Rob’s theory about WHY the Seahawks may be doing what we think they are doing. (Didn’t want to beat this dead horse again, Rob, so sorry, but it came up). The claim is that some kind of TEF formula is being used because there is a growing disparity between the athleticism of OL and DL, which has resulted in poor OL play throughout the NFL, and added athleticism on the OL is needed to combat the growing disparity.
Short version is that there is no evidence for any of that. The real answer probably lies in these non-TEF FA signings. The real answer is that it’s probably not a question of performance, but *projection*. IOW, the spread offenses and limited college practice hours means you’ve got all these OL who are much more difficult to evaluate. You don’t see them doing NFL things. You can’t tell if a guy can transition. So you are almost picking blind. Well, then you might as well pick the 3 most athletic out of the 10, figuring they’ve got the best chance of turning into something. OTOH, by the time the guy’s been in the league, you can just evaluate his tape. You aren’t picking blind any more and don’t need to project much.
Rhino — you’re the one with no evidence I’m afraid. We’ve already highlighted ad nauseum that there are 26 explosive players entering the league on the DL and only six on the OL. Plus John Schneider says in EVERY interview there is a discrepancy. Are you suggesting he is lying or are you suggesting he doesn’t know what he’s talking about?
You’ve not provided any evidence to the contrary — you just keep repeating a hot take.
I don’t know what a hot take is.
I do have evidence, which I presented above. I don’t know this seems to upset you so. I’ve given you a hypothesis that better fits the data we have. Evidence:
1. DL ten years ago were equally more athletic than the most athletic offensive linemen. The combine results bear this out. I don’t know why this is hard to accept. Anybody that’s played football will tell you the DL is always more “explosive.” Why? Because they have to be, or else they wouldn’t stick at DL. They’d get moved to OL.
Your appeal to authority is not persuasive. Schneider could be saying things to cover up the team’s true reasoning, or, judging from some of the team’s recent OL picks, maybe his evaluation is weak in this area.
2. Offensive lines in the NFL appear to doing as good a job as they’ve always done. Over the past 20 years, scoring is up, yardage is up, sacks have remained stagnant, despite an ever-increasing number of pass attempts. When people come on here and argue the sky is falling re our OL, you point them to our rushing numbers and our scoring numbers. Well, I’m pointing you to the NFL scoring numbers, yardage numbers and sack numbers. They don’t suggest it’s a real problem. Since we’re appealing to authority, I’ll go to Daniel Jeremiah. When asked recently on the radio if the trend toward spread offenses meant there were fewer good OL, he said no, it just made it more difficult to project those guys and determine whether they’d be any good.
3. Our FA signings essentially PROVE my point. If the team truly believed they *needed* explosive athletes on the OL to combat a growing disparity in explosion on the lines, then they wouldn’t sign non-explosive OL. Why in the world would you sign a guy you were pretty sure wasn’t capable of doing the job? The best answer is the one I’ve suggested: once guys have been in the NFL, we don’t have to project what they can do because we’ve already seen it on the field. We know if they can pull, we know if they can reach block, we’ve seen them in a 3-point stance, etc. And if you’ve got a group of 20 OL that you can’t evaluate with any accuracy, might as well take the most athletic ones.
I think we’re pretty close to the same point, which is that the Seahawks will pick the most athletic/explosive OL. I’m just arguing that they are doing so not because it’s necessary to combat a growing athletic discrepancy on the DL, but because college football trends and rules have made it so much more difficult to evaluate OL that you might as well just pick the guys with the best raw traits and hope you can coach them up. I’ll drop this issue now.
Rhino you have not provided any evidence. You have not provided any data — you have just asserted an opinion that the D-line talent in college was much more athletic than the O-line talent ten years ago.
John Schneider has consistently argued to the contrary of this. And however many times you keep saying you’ve provided contradictory evidence — you haven’t. You just say you disagree. That is not evidence.
It’s wrong IMO to suggest Schneider is playing some kind of mind trick here. When I can show you the TEF data over the last three years to back up everything he’s saying. There is very clear evidence AND he’s not the only GM saying it.
And I’m not upset in the slightest — but it is a bit frustrating to keep having to counter this point when the GM of the Seahawks mentions every single time he does an interview that there’s a major OL-DL discrepancy — and you seem to be the only one unwilling to accept this.
Definitely a couple head-scratchers, but neither are terribly expensive. I’d love to know what Cable or the front office saw specifically that made them desirable
I’m not sure I trust Cable’s ability to evaluate OL talent.
It’s not just TC.
JS gets a ton of credit for the draft and off-season moves, and deservedly so. One of the best GMs in the biz.
Although, it’s almost like he’s untouchable when it comes to the O-line.
I don’t think it’s as simple as ‘guys haven’t panned out. Surely the blame lies squarely at Cable’s feet.’
They are taking guys, with less talent and making chicken salad out of chicken ****.
This is an organizational philosophy. He hasn’t worked with top tier OL prospects most of his time in Seattle. Let’s see what he could do with Ifedi and McGovern for example. Very talented and fit what they are looking for…. profile wise. If they both bust, then we know the answer.
Seattle is looking at 3 or 4 comp picks still. Both of these guys were not signed to big deals. The two signings certainly won’t knock Seattle out of a 3rd (most likely) or 4th (not as likely) pick from the Irvin deal with Oakland.
Irvin will be a 4th. No way he’s a 3rd as there were far too many larger contracts signed than his.
Some of the teams that would normally get a 4th have signed some big money FAs, so there is a chance of grabbing a 3rd.
Actually none of the teams who would be gaining a pick ahead of us signed anyone to off set. Irvins contract falls behind Osweiler, Jackson, Vernon, osemele, S. Smith, Jenkins. That puts Irvins contract as the 7th largest. If I recall correctly the NFL has never given out more than 4 3rd rd comps so we are looking at the 3rd 4th rd comp probably.
I think Sowell was signed to compete with Gilliam at LT, and Webb was signed to likely be the RT. We will see what the draft brings.
“Gotta say I still don’t understand the Sowell and Webb signings.”
It’s called desperation. I doubt, either of these guys were high on Seattle’s offseason signing list. They were what was left. Seattle is hoping to coach them up and that they’ll prosper in their system, but they are the type of players that could lose out to rookies and become camp casualties. They both have been in the league and are average to below-average backups, so if a younger guy shows more upside in camp, they both could be on the bubble.
IDK. Looking at what guys like Okung, Penn and Beachum signed – we could have had them if we wanted.
I think this was the plan all along. To not sink a lot of money into the OL and shop the bargain bin.
Wouldn’t surprise me if we had identified Webb and even Sowell early as someone who fit that plan.
Webb is on his 4th team in 5 years. Last year he was decent at Guard but as an OT he was Britt or worse. If he was on a league min deal I could see the signing as competition / depth but he is our highest paid OL. Ask any fan of Bears, Vikings, Raiders what they thought of Webb and you will get a response the same as when we are asked about Britt.
I just don,t get that one at all. At least the Sowell deal is inexpensive.
It’s called competition.
Shon Coleman should be the pick at #26. The fact that he’s injured and can’t workout, but that doesn’t concern me a bit. Dude is an immovable force, with a nasty mean streak and jarring punch who finishes blocks like no other. He moves well enough to stay at LT, although he likely slides to RT with GG maning LT. Toughness is unquestioned-playing through a slight MCL tear is no joke. Faced major adversity beating cancer. Coleman has Seahawk written all over him. That’s thee player I want us to draft with our first pick.
Ifedi and Spriggs have their appeal, and I like both of them. They aren’t on the same level as Coleman.
Anytim you spend a 1st rounder on a player coming off an injury is concerning. If the team DRs gave it the okay I’d be alright with it but you never know how a player is going to respond. If R. Kelly is there at 26 I take him. A good C-QB relationship is important and I Think Kelly can and will be good.
I understand the concern over Coleman’s slight MCL tear. The fact that he played on it, and played very well, may have caused further damage-we don’t have inside access to this info. This is a concern for the DR’s to check off on, which I am not. I have dealt with pretty much the same injury, slight MCL tear, and it’s painful and makes pushing off the leg difficult to simply not possible-knee buckles. The fact that he played the rest of that game against Georgia, sat a week, then played well against one of the best front 7’s in the history of the game(Bama) is a testament to his toughness. A MCL tear is not a career ender, so long as playing on it didn’t cause irreparable damage, and there’s little reason to believe he won’t come back at full strength.
“It’s definitely frustrating,” Coleman said. “Being at the combine, I truly feel like I’m probably the most athletic lineman there. Me not being able to showcase that is kind of painful, but at the same time it’s a rehab process so I’m trying to get everything ready…This whole rehab process has been going good,” Coleman said. “I’m getting stronger and more flexible and everything. I’m pretty confident.”
“I think Shon’s upside is out the roof,” Malzahn said. “You’re talking about a guy that really only played two years of SEC football and you see how much he improved from the first year to the second year. He’s one of those football savvy guys. He’s a leader. He’s a mature guy. I think his upside is unbelievable. I think he’s a big-time left tackle and it’s going to be fun to watch him develop at the next level.”
While it’s frustrating for Coleman and scouts that he’s not working out for teams, I think it’s the right move. I’m not concerned with him not being able to work out, as his tape is phenomenal and shows plus athleticism. JS stated that the top player on our board last season was none other than Todd Gurley. As we all know Gurley was rehabbing a more serious ACL tear and didn’t workout at all. Obviously JS/PC weren’t concerned about Gurley’s knee at all. This tells us that players coming off major injuries don’t scare JS/PC away, as long as they pass the medicals.
While I respectfully understand people wanting other OL or DL prospects-there’s a lot of talent out there who would fit needs for the Hawks well-Shon Coleman is the guy I want. He ticks every box for a Seahawks target-athleticism, toughness, fought through major adversity, size/length, leader, mature, high upside, road grader, plays to the whistle, gritty. If we can trade down and secure his rights that would be great. I’d take him at #26 in a flash.
Coleman is prtobably the best fit schematically, the fact he he’s a ‘head buster,’ and the adversity he’s overcome.
But, has playing through that MCL caused even more damage?
I know that Seattle has spent mid round picks on guys that haven’t completed every eval or drill, but have/will they take a guy in the 1st that hasn’t completed any of them?
Over a month ago I commented here that Coleman will last beyond the middle of the 2nd round and Rob shot me down immediately. I still believe that Coleman may drop to 56.
I believe they will pick DL first (Bullard/Butler/Billings) and the next pick would be Coleman/McGovern.
I hope it’s Coleman.
I kinda think it’s 50/50 right now.
Let’s see in a week or so.
Yes, the key will be when the final 2 round mocks are out.
I would just love Coleman at 56.
He is the guy I really want too Eran I would take him at 26 even but at 56 he would be an absolute steal. All depends on his medicals I think and we will likely never know what they say.
Just such a great character guy who has overcome a lot. I hope things work out for him no matter where he goes.
I see Coleman all over the place in mocks right now. A lot of them in the 3rd round, some in the 4th. I think the knocks seem to be age, health, and a general feeling of rawness in his game. IMO, at some point in the draft, some team is going to get a good player out of him, but the real issue is going to be how that MCL is going to hold up and is that going to hold him back. Bad knees on big men coming out of college can probably be a scary wager with a high-ish pick.
It won’t matter Eran.
If he lasts until 56 it’s because there’s a serious injury or health issue we don’t know the extent of. And in that scenario the Seahawks won’t take him anyway. He is far too good to last until 56 based only on talent.
I feel like you say this relatively often when we talk about guys like this falling, like Spence, Nkemdiche, and now Coleman. At some point somebody has to stop their fall, right? Why not the Hawks?
They have never taken a falling prospect early. They’ve actually done the opposite — targeting their guys in a range they know they can get them. I don’t see the Seahawks ever reacting to a player who has a serious drop.
They did react to Jesse Williams. It was a 5th rd pick but they traded up so they could grab him and Simon.
Hence “early” was the key word in Rob’s post. I am sure they will take a chance on day three when there is value.
In round five, not rounds 1-2.
Rob, it all depends on your point of view.
If the Seahawks believe that college O-Liners are not immediate NFL starters and need a year of NFL training, they should be fine with drafting a player that may not be healthy to start training camp.
Most teams may not be willing to invest a top pick in a player that will not start in September.
It may push Coleman into the 3rd-4th round without any major long term concerns.
They have never stated they think college OL’s need a year. They said college OL’s need retraining. Big difference. They started Sweezy as a rookie. Carp, Moffitt, Okung, Britt. They have never stated they think young OL need a year.
“If he(Coleman)lasts until 56 it’s because there’s a serious injury or health issue we don’t know the extent of. And in that scenario the Seahawks won’t take him anyway. He is far too good to last until 56 based only on talent.” Rob
Great point-agreed. Hope he passes our medicals. Rob brought Coleman to our attention in October. Loved Coleman then, and after doing homework on other OL prospects, I love him even more now.
Matt I am with you 100% Coleman would give that OL an edge and help us regain that bully reputation. Your evaluation is spot on in my eyes.
Cool man. Getting down to the wire here and felt like I needed to state my top target. Lockett was my guy throughout the draft process last year. Really hope we can get Coleman in this draft. Only 12 more days!
If Coleman had small cell cancer I would be more concerned about the cancer. The cancer he got is not as prolific at spreading like other cancer and if they caught it at 2 stage I’m pretty sure he has a lot of time left. I understand cancer better than most having been in remission for 11 years now. The torn MCL is more of a concern for me and if he was to drop to 56 I’d still take him. This could work out even better for a trade down with 26 pick.
Cheers to the good fight, madmark. Wishing you many, many years of good health
Sincerely good for you Madmark. Wish you the best of health going forward. Thanks for the inside info on the likelihood of Coleman’s cancer returning, and sharing your personal triumph over cancer. Cheers!
Glad to hear that Mark.
My mom is a breast cancer survivor, I know what that fight is like my man.
Wishing ya the best!
first of all, a lot of thanks for all the great work, Rob.
Regarding our RB situation at this moment, do you think it makes sense to add a guy like Vitale in the late rounds to have another backfield option to the current RB’s and the obvious draft within round 4 ( I hope)?
I really believe they will bring in a FB with special Team skills since Coleman will not be back. I like Andy Janoviche.
Devon Johnson, either had a workout or visit.
If they say he’s like PB fb Fulton, sign me up
26: R1P26
DT HASSAN RIDGEWAY
TEXAS
56: R2P25
G CONNOR MCGOVERN
MISSOURI
90: R3P27
OT JOE HAEG
N. DAKOTA ST.
97: R3P34
OLB JOSHUA PERRY
OHIO ST.
124: R4P26
G ALEX REDMOND
UCLA
171: R5P32
RB WENDELL SMALLWOOD
WVU
215: R6P40
DE ALEX MCCALISTER
FLORIDA
225: R7P4
CB WAYNE LYONS
MICHIGAN
247: R7P26
FB DAN VITALE
NORTHWESTERN
I think Seattle will load up heavy on the OL within the first 4 rounds, and look to fill roster positions out down the line. I think there’s a good chance that first pick is going on the DL though, probably someone who is viewed as having the upside of the 3 down player.
Ridgeway continues to gain buzz. Strong pro day. Some reports suggest that he has the upside to be the most productive DT in this class, comps to Kawaan Short. Versatile enough to play the 1 tech and the 3 and 4 tech spots. Shows a good swim, spin, and bull rush. Doesn’t loose to blockers much at all. Had a great 2014 year as a Soph, but dipped some in 2015. So you don’t get Rankins (Donald), or Butler (Wilkerson), do the Hawks look at what is perhaps the next best versatile interior rush presence in the draft in Ridgeway (Short)? I’d be down for that.
McGovern at 56 makes all the sense, probably as a Center. Haeg at 90 makes sense either at tackle or guard. Joshua Perry is a steal at 97 to take over at SAM and bring a serious thumper attitude to the D.
Alex Redmond adds competition and depth to guard. Smallwood adds speed and pass catching ability to RB. McCalister another raw athletic edge rusher the love to draft. Lyons adds DB depth, and Vitale another offensive weapon as an athletic pass catching FB/H-Back.
Not drafted is QB, WR, TE, Safety.
Ridgeway does have that kind of upside, but 26 is probably still a full round too early for him. He could be a prime target at 56.
Josh Perry lasting until 97 is really unlikely, but I would love if the Hawks could get Alex McCalister on day 3 to develop.
Some of the buzz now is that he could sneak into R1. Ultimately, though, I tend to think if Seattle trades back out of it’s native 26, they could be targeting a player like Ridge still with their first pick.
26: R1P26
C RYAN KELLY
ALABAMA
56: R2P25
G JOSHUA GARNETT
STANFORD
90: R3P27
DT HASSAN RIDGEWAY
TEXAS
97: R3P34
TE JERELL ADAMS
S. CAROLINA
124: R4P26
DE TRAVIS FEENEY
WASHINGTON
171: R5P32
WR DEVON CAJUSTE
STANFORD
215: R6P40
DE BRONSON KAUFUSI
BRIGHAM YOUNG
225: R7P4
RB DANIEL LASCO
CALIFORNIA
247: R7P26
S JUSTIN SIMMONS
BOSTON COLLEGE
Lost my comment. While I would love to have the draft happen as it appears in my mock, it won’t. Computer generated mock drafts are ridiculous.
Yeah, they are pretty ridiculous. I just use them as to tool to organize, really.
In my opinion that would be one heck of a draft. Fill’s a lot of needs. Don’t think Simmons lasts till #247 though.
I think the only one that would be available where I’d picked them in that mock is Lasco.
Rob, really great work on the Q&A and podcast. Glad you are being given those opportunities.
For your comparison with Daniel Jeremiah’s mock, I saw this, which might be useful to take into consideration:
DAVIS HSU ‏@DavisHsuSeattle 20h
DJ says Big Board is what his own eyes tell him & Mock Draft is what he is hearing…