The Seahawks made a very solid pick last night that absolutely warranted the #25 overall selection. The only problem is, the Seattle Seahawks themselves didn’t warrant picking that deep in round one.
When I mocked James Carpenter to Philadelphia at #23 it was with an absolute appreciation for his talents. I spent a whole draft season arguing that you didn’t need to draft a Gabe Carimi in round one because a more talented player like Carpenter would be available later on. He was a potential sleeper that caught the eye for Alabama – raw, but with potential to be a starting tackle in the NFL.
His stock seemingly improved during the Senior Bowl when many others started touting a rise as high as round two. It was enough in the end for me to feel confident putting him in the first round – he is better than Carimi and Anthony Castonzo, he’s been blocking for a structured run offense in the SEC that created plenty of opportunities for Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson. He kept Greg McElroy clean at left tackle. This is the kind of player you expect to go 25th overall. A player you plug in at right tackle on a team already with the key components, and a guy you will have no issues filling in on the left if needs be.
Yet the team picking at #25 is supposed to be a contender, a franchise fresh off a 10-win season looking to add to their core – and that is not the Seattle Seahawks. I can’t criticise the pick as a strong admirer of the player, but I do believe they just need more to keep up the momentum of this rebuild.
The Detroit Lions took a succession of poor seasons, including a 0-16 record, and are rebuilding with an identity for the long haul. On offense they have Matt Stafford throwing to Calvin Johnson, with Jahvid Best and Brandon Pettigrew offering first round talent at positions of production. Now they are building their defense around the major interior force of Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley.
St. Louis equally are going through a lasting rebuild with high picks, which has carried a strong element of pain along the way. The reward is a much improved defense and pass rush from last year and the further addition of a potential top-1o talent at defensive end. They have an improving offensive line to support their franchise quarterback.
Maybe the Seahawks need a taste of that misery? Maybe it’s time to accept the situation – that to get great, it’s not going to happen winning divisions at 7-9.
Of course it doesn’t necessarily have to take years of losing to improve, it’s also about capitalising on opportunities. Atlanta made the right move when they picked #3 overall in 2008 by finding their franchise quarterback. They’ve built around the player and created an environment where they’re comfortable spending two first round picks on a receiver. Baltimore turned a significant slump into Joe Flacco and Tampa Bay’s resurgence came after taking the plunge on Josh Freeman.
The common factor is the investment at the quarterback position. The Seahawks, of course, continue now with just Charlie Whitehurst as the only contracted quarterback on their roster. They continue to lack a really excellent pass rusher or cornerback. There isn’t an x-factor type talent on the offense. With all those things taken into consideration and despite my approval of Carpenter’s abilities, I can’t help but think this rebuild will stall until they’re able to address those areas.
The Seahawks needed to invest in a quarterback in 2009 when they were picking in the top five. Now, two years later, that need remains and faces the prospect of dragging into 2012. That is too long. Pete Carroll and John Schneider have talked about adding to the ‘core’ but let’s be honest, it’s not all that substantial.
There’s a very strong possibility the Seahawks will trade for Carson Palmer. If teams are allowed to trade players today and tomorrow, it could even happen this weekend. Let’s just assume that doesn’t happen for a moment, almost certainly meaning the team re-signs Matt Hasselbeck.
What do you make of the situation?
In terms of continued improvement and progression, how much can Carpenter really provide the 2010 version of this franchise? If free agency takes on the 2010 rules, it’ll be incredibly difficult to add talent due to the elite-8 rule which prevents the divisional playoff teams from adding players without losing their own.
Last year the Seahawks were able to add top-15 talents at two key positions. Is right tackle a key position when you don’t have the quarterback, the pass rusher or the big time playmaker? They were able to make numerous free agent moves and adjustments twelve months ago. That may not be possible in 2011.
I think the Seahawks need more top-15 picks. They need to be in position to add the Patrick Peterson or the Robert Quinn, to have their shot at the quarterback like Tennessee and Jacksonville. The only problem is, you have to be largely unsuccessful to achieve that ‘status’ for want of a better word.
Picking James Carpenter at #25 is the right kind of value late in round one, it may just not be the right kind of value for a 7-9 Seattle. Saying they’re a victim of their own success (such as it is) may be a little strong, but that’s the lasting impression I have from yesterday’s pick. Good value, good player and doing the right thing at #25 to make the best of the situation. Ideally they would’ve been picking earlier because the 7-9 record represents the quality of this roster. They may need to pick earlier again in the future to become a regular contender, add key individuals and accept the pain that comes with it.
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Round Two
The Seahawks were unable to trade down in the first round, meaning they will own one pick today during rounds two and three – the #57 overall selection. So what are the options?
Having very much stuck to their board at #25 and resisted falling talents such as Da’Quan Bowers and Jimmy Smith, I expect a very similar situation in round two. They like Colin Kaepernick, but clearly felt there were better options in round one. Will he be available at #57? It remains to be seen in a draft that has created major shocks at quarterback. Minnesota reached for Christian Ponder, Tennessee denied Washington the opportunity to draft Jake Locker and Ryan Mallett fell out of round one completely as my source predicted yesterday.
Cincinnati have to be in play at the position, I’d go as far to say it’s a certainty that the #35 pick will be spent on a quarterback. Washington at #41 and Oakland at #48 are the other teams to watch and I understand that the Raiders pick may be the area where Ryan Mallett is salvaged. If you are hoping the Seahawks take a quarterback, keep an eye on Kaepernick in these spots.
There is depth on the defensive line still available. I think the Seahawks would consider Stephen Paea if he fell in round two and possibly Marvin Austin as well. Jarvis Jenkins is a possibility, as is Terrell McClain. How far will Justin Houston and Christian Ballard fall after failed drug tests? Having dropped out of round one completely, what now for Da’Quan Bowers? Jabaal Sheard and Brooks Reed remain as LEO options. Pete Carroll knows all about Jurrell Casey.
I struggle to look past the defensive line and quarterback positions, because that appears to have been the thought process all along. Seattle’s plan, as mentioned yesterday, was offensive line, defensive line and quarterback in that order if they couldn’t move down in round one. I’m not convinced too much changes approaching the #57 pick.
Gonna throw Nevis from LSU in the ring as a guy to watch today…
Watching Carroll talk to the media last night the thing that really hit me was his comment that “your going to see us do a lot of work to make this team better the next few months.”. I doubt any of us expected the wacky weekend of cuts and signings that happened before week 1 last year, so who knows what lies in store for this roster. I think the FO really believes they can make hay in these late rds this weekends and get impact players so it’ll be fun to watch.
I’ll trade missing Robert Quinns & Patrick Petersons for playoff games every year. We have a coaching staff and front office willing to do the work to make our guys better.
Playoff games every year won’t happen until the Seahawks can find a franchise quarterback and add talent at other premium positions. Let’s appreciate the situation as it was – a 7-9 season.
Rob,
I was at the BeastQuake game and let me tell you, I would not trade that for anything.
Getting a high pick does not necessarily equate success. Lions have been picking high for over a decade, while the Pats and Steelers have been picking low . . .
Don’t get me wrong, I would have loved to have Peterson . . . but a lot of what I hear about him, sounds quite a bit like what others were saying about Curry.
id compare von miller more to curry
Randy –Peterson, in my opinion, was the best player in the entire draft.
Is there any indication that Carroll possibly doesn’t like to work with rookie QBs like Jon Gruden? How do you rate this pick if we sign a decent veteran QB like Kolb, Palmer, or Young?
It’s possible and something I’ve written about, in terms of this team’s desires at QB. My own stance is – good luck winning in this league without your franchise QB. Stop gaps are exactly that. Palmer is a very real option for this team but he is a stop gap and the Seattle Seahawks needed to draft a QB two years ago. Now it’s critical.
Why are you getting hung up in the Detroit and St Louis model of building a franchise? The Seahawks are using the Pittsburgh/New England model…the one where you basically never get a high first round draft pick.
I never referenced a ‘model’ or recognised Detroit and St. Louis’ picking early as a ‘plan’. They were/are rebuilding franchises and have taken the hits to add talent.
And you can reference Pittsburgh and New England, but they are elite teams with franchise quarterbacks and a lot of talent. They play in Super Bowls. There plans are dictated by what they have. The Steelers struggled for a long time before drafting a QB early. New England have possibly the NFL’s biggest miracle in Tom Brady. They are completely seperate of the position Seattle finds itself in.
We’ll never be in that similar position until we actually take an elite QB. You can’t whine that you don’t have a Ben Roethlisberger, when you never draft a Ben Roethlisberger when you have the chance.
You are presuming the need to draft high to get a franchise quarterback. The last Super Bowl champion team didn’t do so and neither have many many others.
I meant the Saints, the previous champs.
…but Rodgers fits also.
Rodgers was 1st round as well.
Recent SB winners:
Rodgers, 1st rd
Brees, FA
Roethlisberger, 1st rd
E Manning, 1st rd
P Manning, 1st rd
Brady, 6th rd
Not everyone was a 1st-rd pick, but most were.
It’s just very rare to luck into a Brees or Brady. If you are banking on that strategy, you’ll have to wait a long time.
As I said, it’s not rare at all. It’s a common strategy used liberally by many successful NFL teams (including the last two champs) and is in fact less of a risk than the high bust, high downside risk of picking a high draft pick QB. All you have to do is rely on your aging Pro Bowl QB until you hit on one of the numerous lower risk tries you run through.
Completely agree Rob, until you have Aaron Rodgers as your QB, picking later in the draft will not put you over the top. I really like James Carpenter and I think he will have success. That said, I really don’t like the pick because we need more impact at premium positions.
All this being said, I do appreciate the fact that PC, JS, and Cable have a vision and are sticking to it. Perhaps I am sugar coating a turd here, but it is nice to hear that they have a clear identity and seem to be sticking with it. If we are going to fail, I don’t mind us failing while having a strong conviction towards the team we want to build. I guess we shall see, but I wouldn’t be surprised if another OL is taken relatively early. Will Rackley maybe?
Was one first-round playoff win and a second-round playoff loss really worth losing out on a franchise QB, and hurting the long-term prospects of success?
It hurt not to have that #7 or similar pick.
Yes. Yes it was worth it.
According to a lot of people, NONE of the QB’s in this draft are going to be franchise QB’s.
Andrew Luck will be gone long before the #7 pick. How badly do you want us to stink it up this year in order to have a chance to get him?
If we don’t go Qb in round two then a lot of people may start asking if a bench bound Whitehurst and lack of a running game hastened Bates departure.
I think they are on a mean and nasty mission this year to add to the “compete” portfolio. I fully expect DL in round two.
Rob, just started following you on Twitter and reading your blog these last couple weeks. Great stuff. Thanks for your work and for being another awesome resource for a Seahawks fan.
I think we all thought about this back in the fall when the Hawks were going into that game with St. Louis. There was a large part of me, an objective, rational part, that wouldn’t have minded seeing the Hawks lose that game. Come away with a 6-10 record and a good pick, and continue the rebuild. But of course the irrational fan side of me didn’t feel that way. I had the chance to attend both the Rams and the Saints games, and I wouldn’t trade that experience for anything. The Beastquake? In the immortal words of Mike Mayock, are you kidding me? That’s Seahawks lore, man.
So yeah, losing 18 spots or whatever it was certainly sucks. Especially when you have so many gaping holes and a dearth of talent on the roster. When you go back and look at the picks from the Niners on down last night, sure there are some nice players that you’d love to have.
But is the difference between one of those guys and Carpenter the difference between us winning a Super Bowl or being mediocre for the few years? I’d say no, it isn’t. So, you add a piece to your offensive line and move on.
Would you rather they went all out to move up to draft, uh…? And at the expense of mortgaging future picks? We aren’t a Julio Jones away from a title (and I don’t personally care for that move, either). Would I rather have Pouncey over Carpenter? Absolutely. Would I trade the Rams & Saints wins or future picks for that difference? No, I wouldn’t. But that’s just me.
I kinda rambled a lot here and I’m still not sure what my point is, but I guess my thought is that it sorta goes without saying that of course we’d like to have more top 15 picks. Of course we would. And overplaying our talent level did set back the rebuilding process.
But maybe next year, with an absolutely brutal schedule, we’ll get back in the top 15 and get another impact player. Just gotta trust the talent evaluation and hope they hit on some value tomorrow.
Some very good points there. I think what I’m essentially saying in the article is Seattle made the best of a bad situation… because ideally they should be picking much earlier and having the opportunity to add top-15 talent. And in order to get to the promised land, they’ll have to pick earlier in the future.
They had a chance to get top 15 talent in Mallet and Jimmy Smith at pick 25. It’s possible that Carpenter would even be there waiting at 57, or perhaps they trade up in the 2nd at the cost of a 4th round pick?
Hawks made a mistake not taking one of those two. We had horrible luck in that if Cam Jordan was there, that may have been the selection.
It should be noted that the only teams with a QB need picked in the top 16, even more specifically the top 10. That would appear to be a correlation that should be worth noting; the bad teams don’t have a QB, the good ones do. It’s impossible to win a superbowl without a franchise QB unless you really want to count Dilfers, Brad Johnsons, and Jim McMahons as real possibilities when they account for 3 50. Franchise QB in the only way to go, and the best place to find one is early in round 1. How can you not see that? Detroit, St. Louis, and Tampa are absolutely the way we need to get back on top; all have franchise QBs, an offensive weapon or two, an average o line, and a superb d line. Tampa got lucky with their offensive weapons, finding them in late rounds while Detroit and STL had to commit high picks to getting theirs, but there is a reason these teams are on the up-and-up while we continue to smolder in mediocrity. Rob nailed it when he said these teams have identities. What do we have? Maybe the 2nd best pair of tackles in our division? It’s not a way I can advocate drafting with need over value, especially when that need is at such a valueless position.
Hold up. You definitely DO NOT have to draft a QB in the top 16; Rodgers wasn’t, Brees wasn’t, Brady wasn’t. Jamarcus Russell, Ryan Leaf, Alex Smith, David Carr, Joey Harrington all didn’t pan out like they could have had they been drafted lower.
Yes Seattle definitely needs a franchise QB, but trying to address that need with a first round pick in a QB shaky draft will not lead to success for the franchise or the player.
It does seem like Seattle is trying to establish an offensive identity by beefing up the O_Line, trading for M. Lynch (yes I agree he is a stopgap), and hiring Alex Gibbs (didn’t work) and now Tom Cable. They want to become a run first team with a game manager at the QB position-not a superstar.
Whether this is right or wrong, I don’t know. But I do feel a lot better because it does seem like a plan is in place.
Also this draft didn’t have a surefire prospect like in drafts past. I definitely would question whether or not Newton, Ponder, Locker, or Gabbert is a top 15 pick, much less Mallett.
I personally think Colin Kaepernick, is going to be the star of this QB class, but I definitely don’t want Seattle to give up assets trying to acquire him when they have a lot of holes on the team in general. A bad team needs to build from the inside out.
I’ll take a 0-16 season next year if we can get Andrew Luck out of it. Use this draft to protect him and possibly get a play making WR or more help on the D-line.
No way. I have to sit in those games. Lose every game is not how a team rebuilds. That being said look at the schedule, it is brutal. Four wins is likely this year unless Pete is a sorcerer. Also don’t forget possibly the worst secondary in the NFC.
It’s not a bad pick, really. Carroll and Schneider obviously felt that Smith’s off-the-field problems were too much for them to draft him at 25. Meanwhile Bowers apparently had bone rubbing on bone in his knee so he could fall a long, long ways. So in the Seahawks opinion, Carpenter was the BPA and he fills a need so they took him.
Doctors found evidence of a micro fracture surgury in his past with degenerative arthritis. I read (online) that Dr James Andrews said he would have a fine carear though. I heard about the meniscuse and the bone rub but he has been playing with it already, so I don’t know if it’s nothing or a time bomb as McShay said. I would think a coach on a hot seat to improve next year or else might grab him, maybe Cardnals.
Reminds me of the San Antonio Spurs and Dejaun blair 2 years ago. A first round talent that fell towards the end of the 2nd round (in the NBA, there are only 2 rounds, the 2nd round is basically the trash heap). The reason he fell so far was because he doesn’t even have an ACL in either of his knees! Not to mention he is 6’6″ so athletic ability is quite important.
The Spurs, like they did with Manu Ginobli, Tony Parker and others, got an ABSOLUTE STEAL. You don’t even notice he is missing anything in his knees.
Bowers, if available in the 2nd, should be traded up for in my opinion.
Don’t take Bowers! For eery Blair success with microfracture and / or maniscus problems you have 10x the failures. Just look at Brandon Roy or Greg Oden.
I wouldn’t say Brandon Roy is a failure…
I think an important point is that this is great news for John Carlson. Having a competent right tackle should allow for him to be used as the pass catching tight-end that he is. Instead of blocking, maybe we can get him running routes for a change
xactly
That’s a helluva point, Dave. Major silver lining, that. Let’s see whose job it will be to find Carlson deep over the middle come Fall.
johnnyb, do you know what you are talking about. the last six superbowl winners had qb’s picked in the 1st (5 times) and top of the 2nd (brees). if your offense is solid and defense is outstanding, you could get hot (baltimore/tampa bay), but it’s not likely.
Their are some real turds at the top of this draft class, I mean boom or bust guy’s. Carpenter helps lead us to being a more imposing team upfront. This is a culture change and as much as was scared to death of a college coach taking a hold of my team, I’ve wholesale agreed with every pick the’ve made so far. I was really worried because of the Matt Leineart Reggie Bush type players at USC, thinking PC was going for sexy popular picks. Like Rob said we’ve mad as big of investment in our o-line as any team in the league if we resign Spencer.
One thing is for sure The seahawks being the softest team in the league is over.
It seems like nothing is working in favor of the Seahawks rebuild.
-Late picks in round due to playoffs, which is I think is still worthwhile due to intangible effect on a team.
-Free agency delayed.
-More free agents are RFAs and require compensation.
-No salary cap arguably hurts because the team cleared off a lot of salary last year in order to be active this year, yet now they’ll have little advantage over other teams that would otherwise be up against the cap.
-With the no salary cap comes the Elite Eight limitations. This is way more crippling than I’d ever realized now that I read into it. For those who dream about adding both Asomugha and Gallery, it looks impossible due to Elite Eight unless someone else signs Hasselbeck away for big money.
It’ll be tough to rebuild. Schneider’s background under Thompson is all about building through the draft and not overpaying for free agents unless there’s a serious impact guy like Charles Woodson. We’ll have to rely way more on free agency than he desires and the Seahawks are playing with a poor hand in both that and the draft.
Yeah, James Carpenter isn’t a sexy pick but I really believe that the hawks need to establish a foundation with a running game. When they finally draft a QB, he’ll be able to compete for a starting job while relying more on their running game. They could bring him along slowly like how the Jets “developed” Mark Sanchez on the field instead of on the sideline.
Secondly, I believe in Tom Cable’s ability to produce a running game. Now he can work with a solid core in Carpenter, Okung, and Unger to establish some kind of consistency up front for Lynch and Forset to run behind. Bevell offensive has been able to do more with less at QB as long as he has been able to run the ball a little. I think the Seahawks have a good plan in place to eventually become a solid team in two years.
I also think that their was a better chance that Kaepernik will last until the late second then Carpenter. Dalton and Mallet are still on the board and there are also guys like Ricky Stanzi who one of the teams might want later, so I still have hope. The more I watched Kaepernik, the more I liked him, however, I still did not give him a first round grade. I think late 2 to mid 3 is where he should be slotted in this class and I hope that no one else will pull a ‘Ponder’ and take him ahead of the hawks.
It seems that the new OL coach pounded the table the hardest.
I hope the new QB coach can do the same.
A trade up ahead of Washington to get Kaepernick would be very cool.
No need. I remember when i said Kaep was a 2nd round selection during the senior bowl and i was laughed off the webiste, now people think that they should move up in the 2nd for him?
I saw wait, if he is there, select him at #57, it is quite possible. A lot of other teams have made QB mistakes, and Mallet and Dalton will still go before Kaep. Even if he is not there, take the value which will inevitably fall.
Gallery has never been a self motivated guy. Highly touted first roung pick struggled for years, forced to change down to a Gaurd. Didn’t play with any emotion at all untill a couple of years to free agency. Hard not to think of him as a bust untill last two seasons. Gallery gets payed and he will quit putting any effort into football.
Asomunga is a beast but will be getting long in the tooth soon, Like Nate Clements 49ers Cb very physical DB with borderline top end speed who’s best day’s will have passed have passed very soon.
Free agency can hamstring you just as hard as bad drafting. I’m just saying I see alot about where Seahawk football is going to be pumped about.
For the price I’d take the stop gap solution in Palmer of the three, However you get Palmer you don’t get to lose enough for a good draft pick. PC book is “Winning now and forever”I belive Rob said, you can clearly see he’s planning now and for the long term with his core picks.
I agree 100%. In FA, go with the young up and coming talent, not the old over the hill talent where you have to pay for PAST performance. There is so much talent available, gems that can be unearthed. Lagerrete Blount, despite not playing for the first 6 games, was the leading rookie rusher in the NFL last year, beating out the 3 (yes, 3) RBs taken in the first who were eligible to play all season (some had injuries). He was undrafted for goodness sake.s
Hate this move…. REACH
Bad pick.
We had value picks left for us and if anything we should have traded down first before a pick like this.
NE is a smart franchise as they keep adding future picks. We just simply reached.
Gabe is a better prospect and its evident to me as Chicago tried to trade up after we passed on him. I even liked Sherodd more.
There were better options then a 3rd-2nd round tier guy.
We should have picked Mallett! Horiable move.
Ingram would have been better move even.
At least you can’t go to wrong drafting a guard. I’m sure he’ll make the team
The OP was advocating the need for selecting a QB like the Rams and Lions have, high in the first round. Winning teams do it other ways. Rodgers was taken at 24. The Seahawks can win and still get a franchise quarterback. They don’t need to be losers to get one. If you take the list back over the last twenty or thirty years, you’ll see that many many teams have gotten Super Bowl and Pro Bowl QBs other ways. It makes plenty of sense to see how the guy is going to play in the NFL BEFORE you invest massive amounts in him.
It looks like Seahawk fans are going to have to learn to understand this approach because this is the way they are doing it.
The Seahawks are the ultimate “mediocre” team. Many consider average in the NFL to be within 2 deviations of .500. In other words, two wins above or below .500. The Hawks have done that 27 out of 35 times. Nobody likes to be average. Do you really think that Paul Allen wants the Hawks to be average?
In order to have a high pick, you have to lose. A lot. Remember how dejected, actually shell-shocked, Seahawks players were in 2008? After two more years of losing you could see the stress it had put on the players and coaches. The only things that kept them going were those that followed, and supported, Pete Carroll’s philosophy, and the chance to win the NFC West. Seeing the players just before the St. Louis game, after being beaten down for so long, they were determined. They had a fire that I hadn’t seen since the ’07 playoffs. They were committed to winning that game, and getting into the playoffs. After the season opening pounding of San Francisco, everyone was happy, but in a relieved kind of way. After the St. Louis win everyone had true joy, not “hey, we won, but I hope that someone doesn’t take this away from us” happy. These guys believe what Carroll is talking about. If the Hawks would’ve lost, would that be the case? The organization is happy, and more committed to following Carroll and Schneider than ever.
I want the Hawks to win the Super Bowl every year. Can that happen? Yes. Is that scenario likely to occur? Nope. But I still hope. I also have faith in the Hawks front office to adjust to changing circumstances, like improved opponents, not being able to get the same caliber of talent as those same opponents, and doing things that seem unorthodox. We have 24 hours to dissect one move by that front office. In that time we will run the gambit of emotions and responses. James Carpenter may have been a reach, but I have to believe that the front office feels that he is a better fit than Carimi and Sherrod would ever be.
I did want the Hawks to trade down. Some people wish we had been New England, but that means that we would’ve gotten New Orleans second round pick. That means the Hawks first pick would’ve been #56. That’s the pick prior to the Hawks own second round pick. The Hawks needed someone from the top of the second round to offer a pick. That either fell through, or never happened at all. The first round, and top of the second round, is where most of the elite talent is found. Trading out of that range would not have helped at all.
The entire organization, from Paul Allen down, wants to win. that means getting into the playoffs and winning in the playoffs. I have friends that support New England and Indianapolis. They laughed at me for my support of the Seahawks. Until I asked them how many playoff games they won this year. Many times the path traveled to a goal is more important than the goal itself, but the path the Seahawks are following right now is very perplexing. Yet, I have to believe that the organization has bought into Carroll’s philosophy. That’s why Allen is showing restraint with the front office’s decisions. That’s why players showed up to the VMAC on Tuesday. And that’s why I believe that the Hawks know what they’re doing when they draft an accomplished, but little known (to the Pacific Northwest fans) offensive lineman.
Trade away their 2nd round pick when they could have taken Mallett? WTF is goin on