Riley Leonard had an impressive performance against Clemson
I’m going to cover a lot in this article. Later on I’ll explain why I’m scouting quarterbacks, who I’d say are the leading candidates to be on Seattle’s radar, I’ll publish some notes on Duke quarterback Riley Leonard but first my thoughts on Jayden Daniels and Jordan Travis from the LSU vs Florida State game.
Jayden Daniels had a rough performance
Daniels finished last season on a real hot streak, to the extent many people saw him as a genuine Heisman candidate this year and a trendy draft option.
I wasn’t overly convinced when I did my initial study on Daniels over the summer. He certainly has some attractive qualities and he’ll get a chance in the NFL. I’m not convinced he’ll be a high draft pick though and this game emphasised why.
There’s nothing that special about his game. He doesn’t throw many passes over the middle and the LSU offense is filled with a lot of high percentage throws to the outside. I don’t think he handles pressure well, he’s not the most elusive or creative player and his athleticism works best off a quarterback draw (a play not featured in the NFL that often for obvious reasons). Watching this game also highlighted how ‘one-read’ he is — he will linger on his initial target and then move.
I think his decision making at times can also be concerning.
Daniels didn’t start well, overthrowing an easy checkdown with 4:20 left in the first quarter. Minutes later, he faked a hand-off to the running back and seems to make one read, take a false step in the pocket and then set off. Daniels doesn’t really seem to know what to do, so he runs straight up the middle and jumps (for some unknown reason) into the pile. He’s absolutely levelled in the chest by a defender in mid-air. It was WWE-esque. All he needed was a broadcasting table to soften the landing. He’s lucky he wasn’t seriously hurt.
I’ve no idea what LSU were thinking on the sideline after this. They had the offense rush to get the next play out before the end of the quarter. Daniels, moments after being hammered, throws into double coverage in the end-zone and was fortunate it was such an inaccurate throw and sailed out of bounds, otherwise he would’ve been in trouble.
When he gets into open space he can be very creative and make big gains as a runner but as mentioned, this seems to work best when he runs a draw. Travis was a lot quicker and more elusive, buying time and keeping his eyes downfield. Daniels seems significantly less twitchy and agile on the move. Running forwards, though, he can sprint and make plays.
Too often he feels pressure when the initial read isn’t there and takes off, with very mixed results. He needs to learn how to protect himself. Aside from the horrendous hit noted above he was needlessly smacked in the third quarter on a scramble when choosing not to slide. He frequently ran himself into trouble in this game after his initial (or only) read wasn’t open.
He also had quite a few misses (59.5% completions) on pretty standard throws.
To be fair he was a bit unlucky with the interception. It’s a comeback route and the receiver slips, leaving the DB with an easy pick. I still don’t think it was a good throw — it’s low and inside. The route isn’t good enough, it’s too tight to the sideline and he didn’t give the QB much margin for error. Yet this was a dangerous throw even without the slip.
I didn’t make a note of a difficult throw he completed in the game. This is a stark contrast to someone like Michael Penix Jr, who’s basically a highlight-reel machine for ‘did you just see that?’ completions. Again, everything’s cheap and to the outside. This isn’t a very demanding and complex offense.
He barely threw over the middle but did miss badly on a crossing route with 5:53 remaining in the game. His numbers were boosted at the very end by a sloppy 75-yard touchdown courtesy of some shocking tackling by FSU.
Overall I thought this was a disappointing performance from Daniels showing very little pro-promise.
Jordan Travis has a game of extremes
He seemed a bit unsettled to start, overshooting to the left sideline after scrambling away from pressure. Travis then threw an odd knuckleball off play-action with 9:22 left in the first quarter. It was difficult for the receiver to read in the air and fluttered to an incompletion.
He threw a shocking interception with 10:42 left in the first half trying too hard to create. He fakes a hand-off and then faces a blitzing defender in the backfield. He pump-fakes to get away from the pressure, steps up into the pocket then throws to the intended receiver in the flat. The problem is, the defender in coverage has stepped into the frame having bit on the pump-fake so when the throw is finally made, the defender is basically stood right in the way of the receiver for an easy pick. This is a quick-hitting play to the flat emphasising YAC. You can’t buy time, telegraph the pass with a pump-fake and then make this throw. It’s the kind of error you’d hope your QB just never makes.
He then nearly had a second back-breaking interception moments later. From his own goal-line he faces pressure to the left-hand side. He steps up and into more pressure and basically has two defenders closing in from the front and one from behind:
No quarterback ever wants to be in this kind of situation but you’ve got to avoid making a bad situation worse. For some reason, he does a little jump and tries to throw it down the middle of the field. He is hit in the air as the ball is released. The ball loops right into the path of two LSU defenders. Somehow, one of the defenders leaps up and tips it away from his teammate, leading to an incompletion. It should’ve been easily picked and possibly would’ve ended up being a defensive touchdown. You can’t make these mistakes at QB.
At this point in the tape you’re starting to think this could be a long game. Yet, to his credit, he settled down and point-guarded his way through the rest of the game quite effectively (despite FSU dropping their fare share of catchable passes).
He seems like a much more natural improviser than Daniels. He’s comfortable on the move and keeps his eyes downfield. You see him reading different options while scrambling to extend plays. He’s creative and can make things happen. Daniels was panicking when the initial read wasn’t there — Travis was doing a far better job getting on the move to buy time only when it was required.
Alternatively, when he was given time in the pocket he threw over the middle nicely. He made a number of very competent, translatable middle-field throws that Daniels simply didn’t attempt.
With 1:02 left in the first half he produced a well executed touchdown. Travis faced pressure from both sides but stays in the pocket. He’s a bit toes-y with his technique but he spots the 1v1 to the end zone and throws a nice catchable ball with the necessary height to give his receiver a chance to make the play.
He had a similar completion with 5:50 left in the third quarter. He’s throwing from his own goal-line so he’s in a tough position again. He spots the 1v1 down the right hash-mark and again throws with excellent loft and trajectory, giving the receiver a 1v1 opportunity.
Finally, he then had another touchdown on a fade seeing the 1v1 to the left pylon and nailing the loft and trajectory for a third time. Having produced explosive plays to help Florida State build a lead, he then managed the game efficiently to complete the rout.
You come away from it thinking he has plus athleticism, he’s better on the move than Daniels, he does a good job seeing what the defense is giving him and he can put the ball where it needs to go. There were two huge errors early on but he settled down after that.
He really mixed in two extremes of ‘WTF’ and ‘competency’ in this tape. He lacks the incredible tools of some of his peers and I sense he has limitations that’ll cap his pro-prospects in terms of draft stock — but Travis and his team were more impressive on the night compared to his opposite number and an under-par LSU opponent.
Why am I focusing on quarterbacks?
A couple of people have asked this because the perception in some places is the position is settled. Geno Smith has been paid and Drew Lock showed well in pre-season as a competent back-up and maybe an option for the future.
There are a number of reasons why I’m still scouting quarterbacks.
Firstly, the situation isn’t as settled as some think. A reminder that Geno Smith’s contract has a significant ‘out’ at the end of the season. It’s a heavily incentivised deal and if he underperforms, he can be easily cut.
This doesn’t mean he has to be awful either. If Smith has an average season, they will still need to make a call on whether he’s worth a minimum of $31.2m for 2024. Some of his incentives are very achievable too. He receives an extra $2m if he achieves any of the following:
Passing Yards (4,282)
Passing Touchdowns (30)
Completion % (69.8)
Passer Rating (100.9)
Wins (9)
The Seahawks could go 9-8, he could throw 30 touchdowns and 22 interceptions and he could throw for a not unrealistic 4282 yards and his salary next year would be $37.2m. It’s very easy to see why, in that circumstance, they might cut him to make a huge saving (as much as $22.5m) or ask him to take a sizeable pay-cut and compete for a job again next year.
We all hope Smith has a fantastic season but it’s worth noting that his second half of last season was mixed to say the least and he had a high number of turnover-worthy plays that didn’t actually lead to turnovers.
Here’s something I wrote earlier this year:
On average 80.6% of turnover worthy plays result in actual turnovers. In comparison, Geno Smith saw only 48% of his turnover worthy plays actually result in an interception.
That’s staggering.
If he’d thrown the 80.6% average like the rest of the QB’s in the top-10, he would’ve had 25 picks. Even if he’d had a still well below average 65% — he would’ve led the league in turnovers.
So while we all hope Smith excels (and he has every chance with a loaded offense filled with weapons) — we also need to be open-minded about the future.
It was an inspired contract the Seahawks penned with him. It keeps him motivated due to the achievable escalators in the deal, it rewards him for a strong overall 2022 season and it protects the team against a financial burden if he flops this year. I’m not assuming he will thrive or struggle in 2023 — I’ll root for success as a fan and study the 2024 quarterbacks in case that is necessary.
It’s also worth remembering Smith turns 33 in October. It’s not so old to be a concern but it also can’t be assumed that he’ll just go on for years because he hasn’t started a lot of football games in his career. You don’t stop ageing, I’m afraid, even if you’re experiencing an Indian Summer in your career.
Next, Lock is only on a one-year deal. If he departs next year, which is possible, the Seahawks will need to replace him one way or another. If it’s another backup they’re after, it makes sense to draft a quarterback on a cheap deal you can develop behind Smith.
Thirdly, John Schneider. Immediately after the 2023 draft he made reference to the ‘superior’ QB class next year and the desire to gain extra stock (another third rounder). He name-dropped Quinn Ewers. I think there are QB’s he will like in this class and better yet, they might be more likely to be day-two picks where the Seahawks have the extra pick. Since the Russell Wilson trade I think Schneider has fully intended to draft a QB and for whatever reason, it hasn’t worked out. I still think that intention remains.
Finally, I just enjoy scouting quarterbacks. I’m going to do a lot of work on defensive linemen too. Yet until the Seahawks have a clear long-term answer at QB, there seems little reason not to scout them and be fully across the options available.
First thoughts on Riley Leonard
I want to watch more of Leonard and I’ve only seen a condensed version of Clemson vs Duke which isn’t ideal. However, people requested some notes so here they are.
Firstly, what an athlete. I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say he has Josh Allen-esque athletic qualities. He’s unnaturally big and fast with a good arm. He’s not 250lbs like Allen and he doesn’t have quite the same cannon. Yet it’s impossible not to be impressed with his physical upside which, on first viewing, has first round potential.
Leonard seems to have very easy arm strength. The ball comes out cleanly and with punch. He generally has a good base when given time in the pocket. He can also improvise and change his throwing angles to create.
When he feels pressure he tends to stomp his feet and panic, then try to get the ball out as quickly as possible. On third down this was an issue against Clemson. He’d become antsy and treat the football like a hot potato — chucking it out quickly and often way in front of the sticks. He needs to be more poised and use his athleticism, when needed, to buy time.
As a runner he is exceptional. He made a defender miss in the open field seven seconds into the second half and then scored a remarkable running touchdown with 12:40 left in the third quarter. Leonard ‘Beastquaked’ his way through two initial defenders, kept his balance, accelerated very quickly having regained his footing, out-ran a cornerback to the edge and then burst past him tip-toeing down the sideline and into the end-zone. It was a ‘wow’ play and the type will get teams’ attention.
However, there was nothing spectacular about his accuracy in this performance. He had subtle misses in the game, including on some crucial third downs. His pocket-anxiety worries me. Clearly this is not insignificant for a quarterback. He has the tools to become a very intriguing player but hopefully, over the course of the season, he can also show a bit more poise in the pocket to get closer to a player you can genuinely start to believe could be a very high pick.
The early candidates for Seattle
I do think this QB class could work out well for the Seahawks. I think it would appeal to them to have day-two options and that’s what is likely to be on offer. Caleb Williams is going to be the #1 pick. For me, I currently don’t have any other QB in mind for round one (including Drake Maye who I think has qualities but is being overrated by the media). This can obviously change as the season goes on.
It’s hard not to imagine the Seahawks having a certain amount of interest in Penix Jr. He seems like their type of guy as a character. Then there’s the arm which is frankly, at times, a work of art. He made very difficult, challenging throws look easy. I’d go as far as to say he is making throws I’m not sure I’ve seen other QB’s make, with the possible exception of you-know-who.
Penix Jr is also an explosive-play dynamo which appeals to Seattle’s offense. What tempers his stock is his injury history, age (he’ll be a 24-year-old rookie) and scheme. The system at UW is extremely user-friendly and difficult to project. I fear for him a bit when he faces consistent pressure, which he just doesn’t get at Washington.
However, it’ll be a joy to see how that arm gets on at the next level and I wouldn’t bet against him landing in Seattle if he can continue to put up big numbers and limit the turnovers this year (he had eight interceptions in 2022 and really it’d be good to see no more than five given the system and weapons he has).
I think the other name I’m focusing on increasingly is Spencer Rattler. He’s been on a journey, battled adversity, stuck it out and showed grit. He’s become increasingly mature as a person and football player and he has top-five tools as a passer.
After being sacked nine times in week one, South Carolina might get him injured by the turn of the year. Yet it was fascinating to see how he handled that against UNC. He didn’t press or force anything. He stayed in control. He didn’t turn the ball over. Rattler did his job and simply didn’t get any help.
He will also be a 24-year-old rookie next year and teams will want to study how ‘long term’ his new-found dedication to his craft is. There’s just a bit of magic to him though. It’s finally here, the player everyone knew he could be. You can’t help but be intrigued.
I think Riley Leonard could work his way into Seattle’s thinking if he continues to play well and there will be others we can discuss. I’ll finish by mentioning Quinn Ewers. I think it’s clear Schneider — and probably all of the other Green Bay tree of evaluators — will be attracted to him as a person and the incredible release and whip-like motion he has. However, I just felt like against Rice it was more of the same from Ewers. He can’t throw deep with accuracy or consistency. He makes too many mistakes and he’s ‘off’ too often. The talent is there but the execution still, sadly, is missing.
He plays at Alabama this weekend. That’ll be a huge test for him. He can’t have many more games like last week or the pressure for Arch Manning to take over will grow. He has a lot of natural talent but he’s currently a mile away from being the high pick some are suggesting he will be.
If you enjoy the blog and want to support the site via Patreon — (click here)
This is so f-ing good by the way:
https://twitter.com/SinktheKraken4/status/1698782647529419134?s=20
That’s AMAZINGGGGGGGG
Happy bandwagon fan here
He kinda has a Jim Harbaugh thing going. A way to connect with his players because he was one at the highest level.
Exactly the comp I came up with. Stop #2 worked out quite well for Harbaugh, if memory serves …
The UW receivers are already hyped to be the best group in the nation. Break away routes and deep balls are a tough thing to measure in college football. Would have to see the rest of his tape when he faces stiffen competition.
A few people kinda hyped him earlier this year as being the 2nd guy in next years draft. time will tell.
The hype for this QB class is already in overdrive
It’s a deep class but we are not talking R1 types (yet, anyway)
The offense at UW helps Penix Jr statistically and he can show off his traits but it’s also nothing like what he’ll face at the next level making a projection difficult
I agree. I just dont buy it from Penix. He had a tough time at Indiana when Daboer left. Injury history. He didnt get sacked all that much last year. Its near impossible to project him.
He has the hype of top level college QBs with massive production, but is still an unknown.
If you watch his games from last year, you will see exactly what Rob has stated. He is capable of some frankly amazing throws and has such a good arm. But on the other side of the coin, he will make throws that he shouldn’t make because the systems says that’s where he should throw. He will need to change that habit in the pros.
Given the overall draftable depth at the QB position, I’d be shocked if Schneider resists taking one of them R2/3. Glad to have you helping us sift through them this year.
Geno’s the key to the salary cap next season. Plain and simple.
Definitely. As fantastic as the structure of the Geno contract is, I think it also sets them up for a potentially acrimonious offseason between Geno and the team.
I’m all on the Geno bandwagon and the 2023 Seahawks offense, but the type of scenario that Rob lays out where Geno is OKish but not really good enough to move the needle. In that scenario Geno isn’t worth the 2024 number and I don’t think the NFL market is going to be super hot on Geno either. How willing is Geno going to be to restructure his deal if he hits aggregate yardage/TD numbers but isn’t very good?
But what do I know – maybe they just give him the Jamal treatment and back up a truck of money regardless of whether a restructure makes sense.
Thanks as always for the work Rob. ALWAYS appreciated.
+1
Rob,
What do you think on the idea of getting Chris Jones at this time? Good, bad, waste of resources?
Highly unlikely I’d say
The thought of another PCJS mega trade going down could roil the stomach of even the most hardened Hawk fan, I should think. Their big splashes don’t pan out, and I see no reason why things would suddenly be different next time. Besides, this team is still hurting from the Jamal Adams fiasco. Couldn’t they at least wait till that whole situation is completely off the books before they once again jeopardize the roster with another “final championship piece” blockbuster deal?
Rob, do you think Ewers could end up having a Justin Herbert type college career? Where he shows he has the tools but is limited by his offensive scheme the way Cristobal did to Herbert
To be fair though it isn’t the scheme holding Ewers back, it’s Ewers himself. He simply isn’t getting it done. He also isn’t the physical beast Herbert is/was.
First off, good for you to say that you enjoy scouting QBs. Although you were much kinder to this group than I was. I saw Nagy give a shout out to the Tulane QB, I plan on catching him next week.
I felt Leonard was more Daniel Jones than Josh Allen.
There was a lot of exciting line play this week, and will be more next week, so I think there is excitement. I like watching trench play, so last week featured some treat.
1. People have clearly forgotten what Allen looked like at Wyoming
2. I didn’t say he was Allen, simply that the athletic qualities shown in this game were reminiscent of him
But you did mention Allen (profusely) as regards to now 3rd string Titans QB Will Levis (up against Tannehill and Willis??), for whom you proposed Seattle use its 5th pick or 20th pick. The guy who couldn’t beat out Sean Clifford at Penn State (who btw is the firm #2 QB for the Packers, has done better than Levis as a pro as well). You also mentioned a “Schneider type”, despite zero evidence of such a thing — the man has drafted exactly 2 QB’s in 14 drafts! And it’s not that Schneider won’t step up when he’s a believer — has mortgaged the farm multiple times for guys like Percy Harvin, Jimmy Graham and Jamal Adams, yet nary once on any QB, including the ones he was infatuated with (apparently). This Levis debacle, and you completely blowing off Jim Nagy who tried to warn you, got me questioning your QB savviness. Any reflections? We are all learning animals, no harm in using the Levis experience as a building block.
Some thoughts:
1. You can come here and argue with people. I have. And I hope no one takes it personal: Blitzy, tatuputime51, etc. You can even argue with Rob. I have on many occasions.
2. You can say stupid crap. I have. Where I once posited Rashheem Green just needed more time/better role. I’ve been roundly proven wrong.
3. What you can not do: is tell the person who runs this site….how to be.
4. Maybe start your own blog? A podcast? YouTube breaking down draft picks.
5. If you’re going to bring up Levis feel free to include Rob correctly calling Anthony Richardson a top pick about 7 months before that happened. Additionally feel free to mention Josh Allen correctly marked as a top ten pick when Daniel Jeremiah, zerlien, Walter football, etc had him in the undrafted range. Then also remind us when Rob had Mahomes as a top QB and none of the national media had him ranked higher than late first round.
6. John Schneider evidence: Wilson with a Canon. Along with John himself telling everyone that he loved Allen and Mahomes…ergo Levis.
7. By your logic Joe Burrow must suck? Thoughts? He couldn’t beat out the QB’s so he had to transfer.
8. Jim Nagy rules. I would imagine there’s a level of respect there if he takes time to talk to a journalist from England. Also, Nagy actually gets things wrong. Like Rob and like John per those big trade deals.
Anyways your comment debacle should just be used as a building block. Hopefully these thoughts can be used as a way for you to move forward and more effectively comment here.
I said Levis shares physical traits similar to Allen and Herbert. And he does. That is simply a fact.
It’s also not uncommon for a rookie QB to not immediately be the starter. If the Seahawks had used the #5 pick on a QB, I would’ve hoped he would be QB3 too and going through a full redshirt.
Joe Burrow had to transfer too. It happens.
It’s possible to form an opinion on a GM having a type without them necessarily drafting a whole bunch of players. I’ve listened to every interview he’s ever done, I’ve tracked the players they’ve shown interest in, I’ve spoken to people who know JS very well. I feel extremely comfortable in my assessment of what traits he likes.
I wouldn’t have expected him to trade way up the board for a player during Wilson’s prime.
Levis was taken 33rd overall and hasn’t played a down in the NFL but my praise for him is now a debacle, apparently.
I’m not concerned about your belief in my ability to evaluate talent. You’re welcome to your opinion, it makes no difference to me.
Perhaps you want to reflect yourself on how you comment in future, before making any requests of others.
Nicely done, Rob, with a measured and thoughtful response. Peter’s response also shows the kind of comment that advances the discussion and helps take the discussion to a productive level. I’m looking forward to reading your thoughts on the college QBs this season and it may even lead me to watch some of them. Entertaining and informative!
I take back that it didn’t start good conversation. Rob made a really good point, amongst many.
RW during his prime years got upset at JS scouting/fawning over Mahomes. RW during his prime years was subject of trade discussions when the team was trying to get Josh Allen.
Mahomes and Allen are comparable. JS spoke glowingly of Tannehill coming out, another comp.
For that matter Geno and Drew Lock are comparable. There is talk that the Eagles were offering Hurts for RW…a different type of QB, but not terribly so.
The two best QBs in our limited look at the 2023 class have been Aiden O’Connell and Tanner McKee. Neither one looked like a player that the Seahawks would select.
The stinger on this is that they kept him as a QB3, just like the Eagles did with McKee. They didn’t think he would slide to a PS.
Thanks for the feedback, all. And you Rob for answering. I don’t seem to be able to affect font colors so apologize for the potential difficulty in following the bouncing ball. See below:
But you did mention Allen (profusely) as regards to now 3rd string Titans QB Will Levis (up against Tannehill and Willis??)
I said Levis shares physical traits similar to Allen and Herbert. And he does. That is simply a fact.
Yes, and that therefore Seattle should take him at #5. Do you still hold that view? And the others
who commented, do you guys as well wish the Hawks hadn’t taken either of Witherspoon
or Jaxon in favor of Will Levis?
It’s also not uncommon for a rookie QB to not immediately be the starter. If the Seahawks had used the #5 pick on a QB, I would’ve hoped he would be QB3 too and going through a full redshirt.
Indeed that does happen. But not so much for a top 5 pick. Such as Young, Stroud or Richardson.
More importantly, why the red-shirting: bc of acclimation to the NFL?, or bc the incumbent is
still playing at a very high level? so you can stash talent for a rainy day?, or is it bc the flaws at the
college level aren’t getting any better despite a full offseason of alot of attention and coaching? Or bc
the attitude is wearing thin quickly?
The guy who couldn’t beat out Sean Clifford at Penn State (who btw is the firm #2 QB for the Packers, has done better than Levis as a pro as well).
Joe Burrow had to transfer too. It happens.
Yes. Behind JT Barrett who broke 39 Ohio State school records, the only 3-time team captain in
Ohio State history, the 3-time Big Ten QB of the Year, and who broke Drew Brees’s conference career
records for yards, passing TD’s and total TD’s; and then behind Dwayne Haskins, an NFL first
round pick. Not Sean Clifford. And he transferred to #6-ranked LSU.
You also mentioned a “Schneider type”, despite zero evidence of such a thing — the man has drafted exactly 2 QB’s in 14 drafts!
It’s possible to form an opinion on a GM having a type without them necessarily drafting a whole bunch of players. I’ve listened to every interview he’s ever done, I’ve tracked the players they’ve shown interest in, I’ve spoken to people who know JS very well. I feel extremely comfortable in my assessment of what traits he likes.
But….he doesn’t draft QB’s! Empirically. It’s not my opinion. He just doesn’t. Twice in 14 drafts, for
a too-short guy who profiles nothing like Josh Allen or Will Levis, and for Alex McGough a 7th round
flyer who also doesn’t profile like Allen or Levis. We all like 6’5″ QB’s with strong arms and who run
like a gazelle — isn’t unique to Schneider. What IS unique is he’s never drafted anyone like that. Ever.
And it’s not that Schneider won’t step up when he’s a believer — has mortgaged the farm multiple times for guys like Percy Harvin, Jimmy Graham and Jamal Adams, yet nary once on any QB, including the ones he was infatuated with (apparently).
I wouldn’t have expected him to trade way up the board for a player during Wilson’s prime.
Maybe not. But, he didn’t have to trade up for Levis did he. Could have just taken him at #5 or at
#20. Yet he didn’t. Did he fail the ‘Hawks with that #5 pick, passing on Levis? One of the things I’ve
respected in you is you’ve never flinched when you think Schneider erred — Jamal Adams being
Exhibit A. Did he fail the ‘Hawks?
This Levis debacle, and you completely blowing off Jim Nagy who tried to warn you, got me questioning your QB savviness.
Levis was taken 33rd overall and hasn’t played a down in the NFL but my praise for him is now a debacle, apparently.
Yes. 32 teams passed on the QB you affirmed would go in the Top 5. Repeatedly. Despite Jim Nagy
clearly saying he wasn’t viewed as you viewed him. That interview still puzzles me. You could have
asked at least one follow-up question to that earth-shaking comment (if you’ve got him at 5 or
higher). Such as “where does the NFL think he’ll go?” Or, “what’s the concern if athletically and arm-
wise he’s alot like Josh Allen?”. Or “why don’t they think he’s a Josh Allen comp?”. But you just
moved on, despite him being literally your centerpiece for the ‘Hawks at #5. Still don’t get that one
bc your interviews — including the rest of this particular one — are usually so well-done.
I’m not concerned about your belief in my ability to evaluate talent. You’re welcome to your opinion, it makes no difference to me.
I never said you can’t evaluate talent. I said that your evaluation of Levis has me questioning how
you assess QB’s for Seattle — and asked if at this point you’d acknowledge it was a miss, and if so
what you’ve learned from that which could help you fine-tune your analysis of this year’s crop. I run
a big company and sometimes make poor decisions, costs my company millions. When that
happens, my board wants to know if a) I recognize the mistake, b) if I know why I missed the call,
and c) how I’m going to decide differently going forward. Mistakes are learning opportunities unless
we refuse to acknowledge them and therefore don’t learn from them. In my world, that leads to
making the same mistake again, and will get me fired. This is what led me to ask you to
acknowledge you missed on Levis (as far as the ‘Hawks are concerned, which is where you’re an
expert — really don’t care about the Titans
Any reflections? We are all learning animals, no harm in using the Levis experience as a building block.
Perhaps you want to reflect yourself on how you comment in future, before making any requests of others.
My comment was: Levis at #5 or at #20 would have been a mistake and would have cost us
Witherspoon or Jaxon or any other of the players Schneider had as 1st rounders on his draft board.
It’s clear Levis isn’t blowing anyone away at #33 either. Instead, Schneider and Carroll are doubling
down on Geno and Drew, to the dismay of many, didn’t draft any QB either year after the Wilson
trade. What can we conclude from that, as we look at the 2024 class? Sure seems like a reasonable
comment to me. Yes I believe you made a mistake, and that there were multiple signs it was a
mistake. And that perhaps you’d look at the 2024 class (from a ‘Hawks perspective) with a different
lens, making your always-interesting mock drafts for 2024 closer to the pin — again from a ‘Hawks
point of view. Why is that such a terrible comment?
I’m not sure why you are characterising it in this way. You’re pretty much implying I campaigned for one specific player to be taken at #5. I spent eight months of my life producing a detailed board of players I would’ve been prepared to take at #5. It was in no way, shape or form a ‘Levis should be the pick ahead of everyone else’. He was someone I liked, among several.
You seem oddly focused on one player we discussed, as if he was the only player on the radar, which simply wasn’t the case.
As for would I still take him at #5. I’ve no idea. He hasn’t played a down in the NFL. That’s a question to ask in a few years.
And in the case of two of those players I think that is a mistake. Patrick Mahomes cost a fortune to trade up for and was a top-10 pick. I would’ve taken that approach.
So he couldn’t beat out JT Barrett, a player who had no future in the NFL. He also couldn’t beat out Dwayne Haskins, who was essentially assured he would be the one to replace Barrett when he turned pro. So that’s why Burrow moved.
This is the problem you have with this argument. You’re twisting it to suit. Burrow’s situation isn’t identical to Levis’ but it’s similar. The fact is plenty of players ‘can’t beat out’ someone with no pro future and then go on to have success.
Except the first thing he did in Seattle was trade a third rounder and he swapped second rounders for Charlie Whitehurst.
And that’s not the only thing playing into it. I’ll just refer you to my previous answer on this. I’ve spoken to enough people in the league to know what the deal is here. You seem to be focusing on why a GM didn’t draft a QB when he had his own hand-picked franchise QB between 2012-2021. He simply didn’t want to draft any of the options available in the last two drafts which is fine. We’ll never know why but it doesn’t mean he ‘doesn’t have a type’.
He was never ‘literally the centrepiece’. He was one of many players I felt very positive about, as did others. To be honest, that’s a pretty silly thing to say (and I find it a bit weird that you’re seemingly obsessed with the Levis angle).
As for my interview with Jim — I have a short amount of time to ask about a variety of topics. I get the impression that you have a bit of a fixation with Levis for some reason. I think most people were quite happy not to have an interview dominated by me pressing Jim on an opinion he’d already voiced.
He hasn’t played a down in the NFL. If Levis thrives down the line, it won’t be a ‘miss’. Again, not really sure why you’re so focused on Will Levis. It’s odd.
I also don’t feel like I need to justify or explain anything about my process or ‘learning’ to you, with the greatest respect.
As I said before, maybe you should reflect on that internally. I’d recommend that be your next step.
Yikes, here I was hoping that my rather throwaway comment had started some good conversation…
Levis was drafted and is being developed by the Titans. What that has to do with Leonard is beyond me…are you drawing a line between Leonard and Levis? Levis and Rattler would be a comparison, but that was the last post.
I hyped up Geno Smith coming out of WV, friends threw that in my face for years…. Part of the fun of projection is being wrong and right
Maybe I just rate Jones athleticism higher?
Or maybe it was just the Jerseys…
I think Allen’s arm was stronger than Leonard’s, but I haven’t gone back to look.
Well maybe — clearly he is a good athlete
I just think Leonard is bigger and twitchier
Allen probably has one of the strongest arms ever and it’s stronger than Leonard’s (but he still packs a punch)
I suspect that Geno will have a similar year statistically in 2023 as he did in 2022. The Seahawks will pay him around $40M to play in 2024 and not have much salary cap left to improve the team.
In August 2024 many on SDB will still be concerned about the lack of defensive line depth.
I’m stuck in the 90s for pricing but paying $40-50M/yr to any QB not named Mahomes or Burrow seems detrimental to me.
If Geno is an average
-to good starting QB in 2023, get ready to see Seattle pay pay Geno $40M per year.
NGL can’t stop thinking how the Chiefs suddenly need an athletic joker TE and here we have Noah Fant who in almost all certainty won’t be a Seahawk next season anyway.
Let’s make that deal for Chris Jones and set this season on fire, for good or bad.
Doable. We just ask Bobo to put on a healthy 30lb so that he can be our go-to TE once Fant has been traded, right? …..right?
Why does everybody want to make the slow wr slower? Just call up Mabry and call it a day
Imagine thinking this was a serious consideration. 🤦🏽♂️
Totally. What are the Seahawks without their go-to TE.
This offense will grind to a halt without one to the point where having a defense capable of stopping the run won’t matter.
Right?
RIGHT?!?!
I don’t know about season on fire but I think I’d be into a trade for Jones. Plus adding Fant may take some of the sting out of that trade. I just wish the team had not been burnt by…checks notes…all? Almost all? Of its trades.
Jones is an excellent pass rusher but he’s not a particularly good run stuffer. We need an Ahtyba Rubin 350lb block of flesh to soak up a couple gaps. Jones is great and would be a nice addition but would t really address the run d.
So, who has everybody got for the inevitable national championship game between Duke and Colorado?
Place your bets!
Duke ain’t beating Florida St. And Colorado has a tough schedule. Its fine to celebrate them beating the national runner up, but let’s pump the brakes.
Geno Smith ‘decision 2024’ will be very interesting. Even if he plays very well I’d wonder whether the FO decides that re signing Lock to a plus backup sized contract & drafting one of the above mentioned rookie QBs while using the now available cash to shore up the DL properly might be more in line with their championship vision.
Sure is nice to have that extra 3rd rounder as a bargaining chip to move up if need be. We get to root against Denver again with vigor!
going to be lowest of their 2 picks 3rd rounders (broncos and saints, I think)
In that case add the Saints to the ‘please lose’ list.
Geno Smith. Let’s talk about Geno Smith for just a minute or two. Geno Smith (as everyone knows) did not finish well. There are a number of reason for his average 2nd half of the season. 1) Kenneth Walker was hampered by injuries. Which forced Geno and the Seahawks to throw more than perhaps they wanted to throw the rock. 2) It is possible that during the coarse of the season Geno Smith started to wear down. It has been a long time since Geno Smith played a full season. In 2014 Geno Smith had 13 starts. In 2013 he had 16 starts. In 2021 he had only 2 starts. Between 2015 and 2020 Geno Smith either had one start or no starts. So then it is easy to see why he wore down. Geno Smith is 33 years old. The older you get the longer it takes to recover. Especially when over the last decade you had very little play time. 3) after the first 8 or 9 games opposing defensive coordinators had plenty of film to digest on Geno Smith. So this possibly came into play. Maybe NFL defenses started to figure things about Geno Smith. It might have a combination of these issues and perhaps a few other factors that caused Geno Smith to have a less than stellar 2nd half of the season.
I suspect Geno Smith will get off to a start like he did last year. Perhaps play even better. If he does get off to a quick start he needs to keep his turnovers to a minimum. That will be crucial. He cannot turn the football over with any kind of regularity. He does have a history of turning the football over. Before last season (in his career) he had more ints than touchdown. Last year he only had 11 picks. He easily could have had at least 4 or 5 more picks.
Geno Smith has more weapons than he ever dream of. So if Geno wants to get off to a quick start he needs to protect the football. No excuses
Didn’t our offensive line play drop off too ? I thought that was the key to Geno’s form dipping, along with Walker’s injury as you say.
It’s a pretty solid point jumping up to 17 games when you’ve played almost none the previous half decade.
Crazy to think that we added a 5th round CB to our already stacked roster (and chose Kelly over Rush). Top it off with the UDFA LB Thomas (official 30 visit), just crazy couple of drafts for this organization. Onwards and upwards!!
I haven’t seen much talk about JJ McCarthy from Michigan. He looked great last year in big games too. Should he be talked more?
Prediction time. Division winners and WC (not in seeding order):
AFC East: Jets
AFC North: Bengals
AFC West: Chiefs
AFC South: Jaguars
WC: Bills/Ravens/Dolphins
NFC East: Eagles
NFC North: Vikings
NFC South: Falcons
NFC West: 49ers
WC: Seahawks/Packers/Cowboys
I think the Lions are good but over-hyped (just my opinion).
This is the season for me that the Bills start to turn south.
AFC East: Dolphins
AFC North: Stealers
AFC West: Chiefs
AFC South: Titans
WC: Patriots/Ravens/Broncos
NFC East: Cowboys
NFC North: Packers
NFC South: Saints
NFC West: 49ers
WC: Falcons/Giants/Eagles
There…now they are all cursed.
Hard because a could divisions feel totally up for grabs this year….
AFCE: Bills
AFCN: Browns
AFCS: Jags
AFCW: Chargers
WC: Chiefs, Bengals, Dolphins
Last team out: Jets
1 seed: Jags
NFCE: Eagles
NFCN: Lions
NFCS: Saints
NFCW: Seahawks
WC: Cowboys, Giants, Vikings
Last Team Out: 9ers
1 Seed: Eagles
AFCE – Bills
AFCN – Ravens
AFCS – Jags
AFCW – Chiefs
WC – Chargers, Bengals, stealers (Tua injury costs Phins, Jets schedule too difficult)
NFCE – Eagles
NFCN – Packers
NFCS – Saints
NFCW – 9ers
WC- Cowboys, Lions, Giants
AFCE: jets
AFCN: ravens
AFCS: jags
AFCW: Chiefs
WC: bills, bengals, steelers. Miami is smoke and mirrors. Fun, smart coach but show me something.
NFCN: lions
NFCS: Carolina
NFCE: eagles
NFCW: niners
WC: seahawks, dallas, giants
Peter your take on Miami is how I feel about Detroit.
The Cowboys was the hardest decision for me – it was them or the Giants.
Honourable mention to the Chargers.
AFC East: Jets
AFC North: Bengals
AFC West: Chiefs
AFC South: Jaguars
WC: Bills/Ravens/Dolphins
NFC East: Eagles
NFC North: Vikings
NFC South: Saints
NFC West: Seahawks
WC: 49ers/Giants/Lions
It’s weird with the lions because from the outside they seem overhyped. And they are the lions having done nothing for years. But last year they were us. With a slightly worse defense and a slightly better offense.
I feel that being down on lions hype if I look hard enough critically I’m not sure what gives Seattle the big leg up over them.
Hopeful we’ll be a bigger offensive power. But until I see it it’s still the defense for me thats the problem. Thoughts in no order:
Corners. Until witherspoon comes back AND shows out it’s still the same. Have never really seen Brown. Is he an improvement over Jackson?
Safeties. Is Love better than Neal? Probably? So much so that it’s a huge difference? Diggs starting healthy should be a difference. He played well towards the end and it didn’t really change things last season.
LB’s. Bobby back. Good. Also older. Also last time he was here the defense wasn’t good. Better than last year. But that’s like being the nicest guy in prison. Brooks. Great he’s back. Also played most of last year and it wasn’t good. Played with Bobby and see slightly previous comment….was not very good. Bush over Barton. Good I think. Does he play much?
Dline as a whole. Reed is very dependable. Not sure NT is his best spot. Also age. Has been playing less snaps. Dremont Jones. Very excited to see him. Seems ascending. NOT a run stopper typically.
OLB. Here’s the area where I hope we have truly improved. Mafe over old man Irvin and Tayler should be an improvement. Nwosu sneaky great get. Hall looks the part and Taylor just rushing should be an improvement for him.
There’s lots to like but a sameness in a lot if spots that makes me wonder if it wasn’t great before is it really better now?
After seeing Clemson and their QB savior Klub look putrid, could it be that Clemson really was the thing holding DJ U back? He looked good in his first game with OSU.
No, because he played really, really badly last year
Clemson have been soft and privileged for a while and that doesn’t help but the quarterback was benched for a reason last year, he was terrible
Jags 1 seed
Eagles 1 seed
Oops wrong spot
Good Lord. This is better on a laptop
Some of my most puzzling responses have been done on my phone at the dog beach.
https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/caleb-williams-wrestles-with-the-completely-backwards-nature-of-the-draft
If he’s talking like this already, he ain’t going to Arizona
That franchise has a problem
It’d need to recruit the hell out of him if/when they end up with the #1 pick
Tell the Cardinals to go to hell Caleb. Pull an Eli on them. It’s a joke of a franchise and you don’t want to play forbthem and we are tired seeing tanking work for teams.
Like florio and agree that the tanking is b.s. but what is the other option? That’s the problem florio can’t square yet. Where’s the cutoff draft slot wise? Does everyone get recruited to the pro team?
In Williams case I can totally see him staying. The cardinals are terrible by choice.
NBA style draft lottery for all non-playoff teams is all I’ve ever come up with.
Man that would be something.
The NHL ended up going to a lottery.
After Quebec tanked to get Eric Lindros, maybe the best draft prospect in NHL history, it just made sense.
Caleb William subtext: Lindros refused to play for Quebec, and after a tense summer they traded him to Philadelphia for a haul that would make the Denver Broncos blanch, and used it to eventually become Stanley Cup champs and a regular league power in Colorado.
Funny enough they actually traded him to the Rangers and the Flyers. It had to go to arbitration to decide which deal was actually the valid one. I think that is unprecendented
Right. The Rangers eventually got what was left him later.
I wonder how it would be like if Caleb decided to go back to college for another year and Arizona decided to tank for another year 🙂
That’s pretty dark, slightly funny, and definitely something possible I could see AZ trying.
Law…AND medical school!
Pull a Tony Dorsett and tell the Seahawks you’re going to Canada?
(And yes, I know the money isn’t the same….just still bitter 46 years later)
Well, the last team to tank this hard was the Brown’s and they won 1 game in 2 years, still didn’t manage to get any better than average and then traded all their picks, a record contract and their soul to Deshaun Watson. And then they still weren’t any good.
I’m not entirely sold on the idea that the cards are tanking on purpose. They cut an ancient qb in favor of a rookie, which is what I’d rather my team do in that spot. Maybe they develop a decent backup. Is Colt McCoy really the difference there? They cut Hopkins after shopping him because he didn’t want to be there. Once again if a guy tells me he’ll be a problem in the locker room get him out and let a young guy get a chance. Also why trade away this years pick instead of taking a qb if they don’t want to try to make it work with Murray. (This might be a shaky argument on my part but its worth thinking about)
I feel like AZ knows they’re in a shit spot with Murray out and trying to make the best of it. If they can develop some guys on the way to an obvious high pick thats the play. I’m much more upset about Indys bs at the end of last year if we’re talking about tanking. What if the draft order gets set after week 12 for non playoff teams?
Great content again Rob. I was on the pick a QB at#5 last draft bandwagon. History tells us that the Hawks haven’t drafted a real QB in over a decade. Hard to think they will change course.
It depends on the situation
They’re not deliberately avoiding drafting QB’s
That would be like a human deliberately avoiding oxygen
Cha (SDB in-house cap expert),
Would be great to get your input (guest article) on the future cap situation situation as we open the season. Looking at position-by-position depth and cap flexibility (paired with Geno’s team friendly contract), can’t help but we are in a very (very) good position.
The only eyesore that I can spot is the Jamal Adams contract.
Would be great to get your thoughts/analysis!
Cheers,
Gaux
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/seattle-seahawks/yearly/cap/
For sure. Some things are bubbling.
The window around the cutdown day and Week One are always a flurry and a bit of mess for the cap for everyone to catch up. Once Sunday comes and goes – the deadline for Adams’ salary to guarantee for the year, among other things – we will have a more settled picture and we’ll put something together.
Looking forward to it!!
Loved that we picked up Kelly, Thomas and Brown… along with their cheap club control at important depth positions (freeing up potential draft capital for trades).
Hoping they extend Lewis, Dissly and Diggs… and one of the LBs (Brooks or Bush).
God only knows what they plan on doing with Adams.
Bleacher Report has us taking Zach Zinter at 21 overall…
Their logic: Cross is our Okung, so we need to draft a Carpenter. Because teams just mirror their drafts decades later as a strategy.
They also have Shedeur going 8th overall. Which could happen (or at least end up as a first round pick). But they say that it isn’t based off of his week 1 performance. I guess that FCS football already sold the writers…
A guard. I suppose if he’s BPA and they don’t pay Lewis. Though many would say DLine for next year my small bet is on Safety. Pete can’t stop himself and there’s the elephant sized bejeweled bird in the room if he can’t get back to three years ago to come to terms with. Diggs will well and truly be on the wrong side of 30 for that position.
Rob:
I may have missed it, but have you done an evaluation of QB#3-Holton Ahlers. In a worst-case scenario, he conceivably may have to play this year (with a QB injury?) or be elevated to QB#2 at least. I know he is very raw but there may be something there with his apparent “grit” factor. Can he overcome most of his technical flaws and shortcomings & are they correctable with more coaching??
I haven’t studied him, short of watching the pre-season games. I don’t think he has much of a NFL future as a passer but if nothing else, he’ll make future pre-season games fun if he sticks around a while as essentially a camp body/practise squad regular.
This made me literally LOL
The airquotes were unintentionally perfect.
Bob Condotta
@bcondotta
·
40s
Remade Seahawks defense ‘confident’ it will be ‘better’ than last season
https://youtu.be/AdkkTV3pIa0?si=wxas1TJvQl_HzUyY
Funny forever.
Nuggets dribbling in from PC’s press conference
JSN expected to play Sunday
Mike Morris and Derrick Hall practicing today
Jamal Adams doing walkthoughs and will probably practice next week
Witherspoon will practice today but “we’ll see” about Sunday.
Adams restructured, wonder how badly they are penalizing the future.
Rob, you been able to watch any of Minnesota S Tyler Nubin?
Rob thanks so much for the intial scouting report on Riley Leonard it is greatly appreciated.