There are several changes in this week’s projection. Mohamed Sanu (WR, Rutgers) and Manti Te’o (LB, Notre Dame) will return for their senior years and enter the 2013 draft. Andre Branch (DE, Clemson) makes a big jump into the top-15. He’s had a good season (10.5 sacks) and has the kind of relentless approach, burst, length and busy hands that could make him a productive player at the next level. A lack of pass rushers in this year’s draft could easily promote a player like Branch into the top-15.
Washington fans will probably argue strongly against any projection that has them passing on the quarterbacks at #4. However, it almost makes too much sense for Peyton Manning to find his way to the Redskins, offering Dan Snyder a big-name who can instantly make his team a contender in the NFC East. If Indianapolis does intend to keep the #1 pick, they’ll surely have to release Manning. That would allow Washington to solve their biggest problem before the draft and possibly add a dynamic playmaker like Trent Richardson. Mike Shanahan could bang the table for Ryan Tannehill as his long term QB project and eventual successor to Manning. It’s not such a ridiculous proposition, even if Washington passing on Matt Barkley and Robert Griffin III seems like a stretch at this stage.
Of course, such a scenario would push the two quarterbacks down the board, with Griffin III going to Miami at #7 and Barkley to Cleveland at #8. In this situation the Seahawks could realistically see Carolina (#5) and Jacksonville (#6) as possible trade partners. There’s no getting away from the fact Seattle needs to draft a quarterback and sitting around waiting for that player to arrive over the next few years isn’t going to cut it. There is a lot of talent on this team, but the 6-7 record doesn’t lie. If the Seahawks are going to become a regular playoff contender, they need to know who their quarterback is for the long haul.
I don’t include trades in my mock drafts, so we’ll have to keep looking at alternatives even if I’d like to believe trading up is a strong possibility. This week the Seahawks draft Penn State defensive tackle Devon Still.
He’s not the kind of dominating interior lineman we’ve seen available in previous drafts (Ndamukong Suh, Gerald McCoy, Nick Fairley, Corey Luiget, Phil Taylor) but he’s the best available in this class. The Seahawks don’t run an orthodox scheme, and the current rotation of lineman do a good job against the run. There’s still room for a productive three technique, especially one that can double up as a five-tech on certain downs. Still’s best position may actually be at the five, but he’s also an intriguing developmental option as a penetrative inside rusher. He tends to be inconsistent and his hand use needs to get a lot better – he’s quick rather than powerful or technical. He’ll slip a gap with agility, but when he has to brawl he sometimes struggles. It’s a technique issue more than anything, which is why he might be better taking on one blocker rather than working the middle. His versatility, however, makes him an option for the Seahawks and he’s got the foot speed and mobility to offer something different to this defense.
Updated mock draft – 14th December
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#1 Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford) The Colts are facing a difficult situation where they’ll have to either cut Peyton Manning or trade this pick. Interesting times ahead. |
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#2 Matt Kalil (OT, USC) The Vikings have many needs, but the biggest is probably at left tackle. Kalil will be one of the best OT’s in the NFL as a rookie. |
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#3 Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU) He keeps making plays – eleven interceptions in two seasons. St. Louis’ secondary is plagued by injury and lacks quality. |
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#4 Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama) I keep coming back to Peyton Manning and Washington. It’s an ideal fit, allowing the ‘Skins to draft Richardson here and perhaps add Ryan Tannehill later. |
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#5 Jarvis Jones (LB, Georgia) He says he won’t declare, but after a prolific 13.5 sack season, a top-ten grade could change his mind. |
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#6 Dwight Jones (WR, North Carolina) The complete package at receiver – size, speed, good hands, competitive, adjusts to the ball. Ideal fodder for Blaine Gabbert. |
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#7 Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor) Some teams are going to fall for Griffin, who’s ended the year on a crest of a wave. He’ll help sell tickets in Miami. |
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#8 Matt Barkley (QB, USC) This would be an absolute steal for Cleveland. Barkley is an elite talent who can start as a rookie. |
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#9 Luke Kuelchy (LB, Boston College) A tackling machine who will help solidify Tampa Bay’s defense. Blue collar defender with leadership qualities. |
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#10 Zach Brown (LB, North Carolina) Philly should use this high pick to try and find an impact player. Brown has the talent to be a playmaker in year one. |
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#11 Jonathan Martin (OT, Stanford) Buffalo would love to find a top-end pass rusher, but they also have a need at tackle. This would be a smart move. |
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#12 Riley Reiff (OT, Iowa) A man of few words and a tackle’s attitude. If they appoint Kirk Ferentz as Head Coach, this could be a logical projection. |
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#13 Andre Branch (DE, Clemson) They need an OT, but the top three are off the board. The next biggest need is a pass rusher and Branch will start to rise up boards. |
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#14 Devon Still (DT, Penn State) The opportunity to move up will surely tempt the Seahawks to be aggressive for a quarterback. If not, Still adds an interior pass rush to go with Seattle’s stable of DT’s. |
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#15 Quinton Coples (DE, North Carolina) San Diego could take a chance on Coples, who is best suited to the 3-4 defense. Can they pick first-round five-techs in consecutive drafts? |
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#16 Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama) He’s big and good in run support, but has struggled in coverage at times. Jerry Jones will like this guy, so will Eli Manning. |
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#17 Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State) Could he suffer a fall? He doesn’t have explosive speed, he can make frustrating errors. Blackmon isn’t a top-ten lock. |
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#18 Lamar Miller (RB, Miami) Cincinnati has some promising young playmakers and Miller would add another dimension. |
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#19 Janoris Jenkins (CB, North Alabama) Elite cornerback talent but troubled by off-field problems. Cincy needs to draft a corner and Jenkins is good enough to start quickly. |
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#20 Kendall Wright (WR, Baylor) Jay Cutler will thank the Bears if they make this pick. Wright’s playmaking qualities and deep speed will bring the best out of Chicago’s quarterback. |
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#21 David DeCastro (OG, Stanford) He’s a little over rated, but should find a home in round one. New York can afford to take the best player on their board. |
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#22 Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame) Having drafted a new quarterback earlier, Cleveland now needs to add a playmaker. Floyd has the kind of size Mike Holmgren likes in a #1 receiver. |
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#23 Whitney Mercilus (DE, Illinois) With 14.5 sacks this year, someone will give him a chance early in the draft. New York needs to add to it’s outside pass rush. |
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#24 David Wilson (RB, Virginia Tech) Electric running back who adds another dimension to Denver’s offense. They could also look at Kelechi Osemele. |
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#25 Kelechi Osemele (OG, Iowa State) He could be better than DeCastro, but doesn’t get anywhere near as much hype. This would be a smart move by Detroit. |
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#26 Alameda Ta’amu (DT, Washington) His potential to play nose tackle will keep him in round one, even if his play has been inconsistent for the Huskies. |
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#27 Peter Konz (OC, Wisconsin) Stood out last year in a big-name Badgers offensive line. Could return for another year, but ready to have an impact as a pro. |
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#28 Kevin Reddick (LB, North Carolina) Bill Belichick doesn’t make obvious picks and could spring a surprise. Reddick can play any of the LB positions – seriously under rated. |
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#29 Nicolas Jean-Baptiste (DT, Baylor) He’s no Phil Taylor, but every time I’ve watched Baylor this year he’s been the one defensive player who looks to have some pro-potential. |
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#30 Oday Aboushi (OT, Virginia) I’ve seen Virginia twice this season and Aboushi looks like a NFL tackle. Baltimore needs to bolster that offensive line. |
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#31 Vontaze Burfict (LB, Arizona State) Although I think his stock is falling, someone could take a shot on Burfict. My guess is he’ll end up playing AFC North. |
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#32 Mark Barron (S, Alabama) He’s having a good year but his stock is limited due to the position he plays. This would be a nice get for the Packers. |
Vontaze Burfict is a perfect fit for the Steelers. I am really hoping to see the Seahawks trade up to get Barkley, I’m not seeing anybody that I really want for the Seahawks in the 1st the way this falls.
Rob,
Why don’t you show Alameda Ta’amu some love and pick him? Remember when we had Cortez Kennedy and no one would run through our middle? I say draft the biggest DT we can get!!!! The best part is that he wouldn’t have to carry his suitcase far.
But seriously, nice pick.
Without looking at possible trade up’s or downs, as I am hoping, I like the pick if we stay at 14. We could always use another solid interior D-lineman to bolster the rotation. A interior lineman with pass rushing skills will make the LEO and our corners that much better and give the big boys a breather when needed. I’m still a big fan of trading down picking up another early draft pick to help buff our the depth issues at LB and DL. I was worried about the OL but after watching the last couple of games our backups seem to be holding their own. On a side note, can you remind me what pick we received from Oakland for in the Curry trade? If I remember right it was based on playing time and/or productivity but I can not remember what rounds were possible. Thanks again for the excellent mock and up to date draft info. I look forward to checking your site daily.
Rob,
I am a daily visitor of this blog and avid supporter of your work. I am thoroughly surprised by you constantly mocking a RB to Washington. Do you have insider information? Isn’t the RB by Committee already full with Helu, Hightower and a tashard choice back up?
I agree Manning will most likely be wearing red next year but with all the issues on offense, wouldn’t the team go for a WR, OL or true playmaker at a position of dire need?
Hey Ryan,
It’s a good point you make. The case I would make is that Richardson – for me – is the most dynamic running back to enter the league in years. You’re talking about a player who could, even in year one, be one of the stars of the NFL. Even though Shanahan has a lot of success with no-name backs, imagine putting together an offense where you’ve got Peyton Manning throwing the ball (and Peyton always enhances his receivers) and Richardson making big plays on the ground. I think you could found a similar environment to Favre & Peterson in Minnesota, and Washington have some defensive talent. The thing is, Peyton is less erratic than Favre and Richardson could be as scary good as Peterson.
They could go WR, but as I say Manning is known for making the most of lesser known receivers. The top OT is off the board and Richardson is the BPA at that spot. I’m not sure if they could draft another player who presents a comparable level of playmaking and impact in year one. Put Manning and Richardson together and Washington could be a Super Bowl contender.
That’s really the way I’m looking at this. I also suspect Shanahan may prefer Ryan Tannehill to Barkley and Griffin – a guy he can groom behind Manning for 2-3 years. This would allow Shanny to get ‘his guy’ while also allowing Dan Snyder to put a winning product on the field with big name players.
I put together another possible draft analysis for the purpose of seeing what it might take for the Seahawks to trade up and get a top five quarterback. Using the accepted “Draft Value Chart” (provided by the excellent 17 power Seahawks Blog) and assuming acquiring the #1 pick (Andrew Luck) will be to expensive (3,000 points) for the Seahawks. With the quality of the second and third quarterbacks projected to be drafted in the 2012 draft, Matt Barkley and Robert Griffin 111. What would it take the Seahawks to move up and draft one of those two?
First, I am projecting the Seahawks to draft in round 1 at the 16th spot (that’s worth 1,000 points). As I write this they are at the 14th spot with 3 winnable games left to play. Second, I am looking at where the other quarter back needy teams are projecting to draft. Washington at # 6 and Miami at #8. With that the Seahawks would have to make a move up the board that puts them in at least the # 5 spot. That would cost 1,700 points. We also don’t know who will go first, Barkley or Griffin. In addition, we are not sure which team will pick at the #6 spot, but it will likely be a quarterback needy team.
The good news is there will be four of the first five teams probably not in the quarterback market and may be willing trade partners. Depending on what those four teams demand as draft trade capital it could look like this:
# 16 is worth 1,000 points, Seahawks would give up this pick and need to add 700 more points for the #5 pick. They could give up next years’ first round pick or…
This years’ #16 + #48(second round pick) – 1,000 + 480= 1480 (not enough ) need to add the third round pick #’s 16, 48 and 80 that’s 1,000 + 480 + 190 = 1,610 (still not enough). Let’s add the fourth round pick, # 112 worth 70 points 1,610 + 70 = 1680 wow still not 1700! Adding the fifth round pick (34 points) would put you over the required 1700. That’s essentially giving up the entire farm to acquire the # 5 pick!
If you ask me I would rather give up this year and next years’ first round picks. Given that John Schneider seems to be able to identify quality talent in the later rounds, I feel comfortable letting him use this year and next years’ round 2-7 round picks to fill out the roster with quality.
The “monkey wrench” is a trading partner may not want to take chance on where the Seahawks will be picking in round one of the 2013 draft. They may Opt. for the surety of the Seahawks picks in rounds 1 – 5 of this years’ draft. If that were to happen, I am not sure Carroll and Schneider will be willing to cut a deal and move up high enough to acquire Barkley or Griffin.
Rob,
I think you should project trades if your going to project FA possibilities. I really question Payton’s willingness to sign with the Redskins and the drama Snyder brings. There is also the question of him playing Eli twice a year. I really don’t see him going there. I don’t want him on the Hawks either. Maybe he would go to the Browns and they draft Trent Richardson and sign Wayne for familiarity purposes. That would be a good offense plus an already good defense.
I had the thought today that maybe Indy could beat the Titans with Locker starting and they could also very well beat the Jaguars in week 17. All the Indy players have to be motivated to not finish 0-16. The Vikings look like they could possibly win again but St Louis looks like 0-3 down the stretch. I’m not sure how the SOS would work out but it would certainly throw a huge wrench into all the draft predictions concerning QB’s if the Colts lose Luck. I wonder if this were to happen if it would help or hurt our Barkley chances.
i agree with Seahawk steve
I think this years first and next years first and maybe another pick
Regardless of are record next year, i still think its enticing i mean shoot its a 1st rd pick, they can move up in the draft if they see someone, or use it as trade bait
2 1st rounders and maybe a 4th or 5th
i think it would be nice to trade with Panthers or Jags
And if Miami does go for a QB they have Matt Moore and Henne aswell
and from what i remember reading, when Henne got injured and Garrard was waived, Garrard almost signed with Miami but he wanted to go somewhere that was going to be committed to him, but they said Henne was their guy.
so we will see, i wonder if they go Offensive weapon maybe Jeffery,D. Jones, Richardson,Blackmon.
teams that may pick a QB
KC-will pick one of the two left over QB’s I believe
Miami-I think will stick with Henne or Moore, and get some weapons
Washington-Will either get Manning or one of the other QB picks
Browns-i say they stick with McCoy and jus get one of the top Recievers for McCoy to throw to.
Seahawks- Hopefully trade up, and pick either Griffin or Barkley, i honestly am not sure which one i would want
Barkley seems more of a pure passer with less athleticism (sp?)
Griffin is more athletic and can throw a nice deep ball, jus some mechanical issues.
This year and next years 1st round picks and possibly a 3rd rounder I think shud be more then enough!! If not then I have full faith they will find someone like an austin davis 2 groom! What would u guys think if we. Went after jason campbell? Or do u think another qb needy team could get him for cheap and not use draft pick on a qb? In my opinion he is a decent qb that knows the west coast system!!
Seahawk Steve-
I wrote about the trade value chart on a previous post on here (I also used the assumption that we end up at #16). For valuing next year’s first we have to discount it a round and assume it falls at about the middle, so it should be worth ~400 points. That basically means if the chart is correct (no guarantee this holds with new CBA), we’d need to trade this year’s first and second plus next year’s first to get to #4, or this year’s first plus one of this year’s second or next year’s first to get to #8. Frankly, I’m ok with either of these (two firsts and a seond for Barkley or two firsts/one first and a second for RGIII), but it’s going to be a steep price.
I think you can throw the trade chart out the window in this scenario. The price is going to be steeper than usual because the Dolphins/Browns/Chiefs are going to be looking to move up as well.
I believe we will have to ‘up the ante’ so to say to move up from the middle of the draft. I wouldn’t be surprised if it takes this year’s first and the next two draft’s first. Honestly, I have no problem with giving up that much because of how strong our foundation is and PCJS knack for mining late round talent.
Probably one of the most unique Mock Drafts I’ve seen at this point. I thought I was reaching with Michael Floyd going #3 overall but you take it to a new level. I applaud the boldness of such a draft. Great work.
Why is Cincinnati drafting twice in the 1st round at 18 and 19? I thought Cleveland was the only team with 2 1st round selections!
Good posts and article.
All I can say is I cannot wait for April
Rob,
Any chance you think Jenkins might fall in the second round due to the character issues? I know the Bengals don’t seem to care much about character but if they pass he might slip quite a bit. That would be a huge value pick imo if he fell to the hawks in round 2.
I’ve just had to delete only the fourth comment from a visitor since 2008. That’s a credit to the regulars on here for keeping the conversation at a quality level, but it’s worth reminding people that abusive remarks of any kind will not be tolerated. This is a place to talk draft, to talk Seahawks and to talk football, not a place to be a massive jerk.
Robert – thanks for the kind words, they’re really appreciated.
Meatwad – ditto, thank you.
Gump – I think it’s a very real prospect that Jenkins falls because the character issues are pretty intense. Can you rely on this guy? Probably not. It’s that serious, he may end up being a late rounder even if he’s top ten in terms of potential. But for now I’m going to keep him in R1 because he is just so talented, a rare prospect with incredible cover skills. As you say, the Bengals don’t often care about character and they need a CB, so it seems like a good fit for now.
Thanks for the response Rob, I was on the Jimmy Smith train last year and was suprised when he was available that we passed. Not sure how he has done this year or if he has had much of a chance to prove himself. It’s been nice to at least see decent depth even with the injuries this year which hasn’t been the case in years past. I know Rob was down on Couples earlier in the college season but it feels like we have more depth at DT then at the end positions. Anyone see Couples as a good fit for us?
I love this draft for the Browns. I would piss my pants in happiness.
The problem I have with Coples in Seattle Gump is the scheme fit. He’s never going to be a LEO, but Seattle doesn’t use an orthodox 5-tech either. Bryant’s is a unique position, but they’re also using Branch for size too… it’s a way of doing things unlike pretty much any other team. Coples isn’t big enough to be part of that trio inside, he’s not a LEO.. where does he fit? If Seattle drafted him, he’d virtually be a role player on third downs at LE. For me, he has to go to a pure 3-4 team looking for a guy they can mould into a useful 5-tech.
Tampa took a Mike backer rd. 3 last year. He is learning the ropes as a starter, & is 2nd among rookies in tackles.That said, they could still take Luke with a view toward moving him to Will. Guy is a tackling machine.
Walter football has us taking Ryan Tannehill with the #14 pick…. sweet lord in heaven, that CANNOT happen.
Tannehill isn’t a 1st round pick IMO.
I can’t see it happening, Colin.
Hey Rob. I dig Andre Branch. Watched all the JMPasq film on him and he looks very solid. Nice motor while still remaining composed and aware. Fit at Leo?
I was wondering what your thoughts are on Sam Montgomery from LSU?
Yeah me either Colin. If there is no trade made we def can’t reach that far just for a position of need. If one of those top linebackers fall down to our area I think we gotta take one of them. Hill is playing real well but he’s not getting any younger. Wright just downright killed it on monday as well and could be a special group. (maybe like the group we thought we had in Curry, Tatupu & Hill) 🙂
Still made the AP 1st team All-American squad for 2011. Other notables.
http://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/12/14/rgiii-leads-ap-all-american-team/
Jarvis Jones, LB, from Georgia made 1st team. I have a feeling when Jarvis heads to the combine, Mayock will rip into Jones for being a bit stiff hipped and tight.
Robert Woods, WR, USC was also 1st team while Kendall Wright was 2nd team at WR
RG3 was 1st team, Luck was 2nd team and Barkley was 3rd team.
Andre Branch was 3rd team while Vinny Curry was 2nd team at the DE position.
A guy I’d like you to check out, Rob, is Vinny Curry from Marshall. I haven’t seen any tape on him but could be groomed for LEO or play 7-9 Tech on passing downs opposite Clemons. Does jmpasq have any tape? Could he be a 2nd rounder the Hawks might be interested in?
Interesting “story” today on PFT about the Jags taking another QB this year due to Gabbert’s poor play. He may be damaged goods, but considering he was at the top of our QB board last year would this be worth the look? If true, I would have to believe it would be for far less than what is being suggested to move up in the upcoming draft. Thoughts?
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/12/16/gabbert-may-be-bad-enough-to-make-jaguars-draft-another-qb/
GUMP,
Are you the Hawk fan that is the electrician that lives near Bend, Or? Used to write some articles and we debated heavily with others on the Hawks’ 2010 draft? Bubba?
If there was doubt about Barkleys plans before, I think we can expect him to come out based on recent news
(http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=AivVMkKYSU2sEhP9BA1eLI1DubYF?slug=pfw-20111216_usc_ot_kalil_declares_for_draft)
I can’t believe how excited I am over a bunch of 21yo kids…Lord I need to get a life. April can’t come soon enough.
Kurt, Gabbert is terrible when facing heavy pressure, heck any pressure. He throws errant passes, leaves the ball exposed for turnovers and just looks like a deer in headlights.
It’s a reason a vast majority on here don’t want anything to do with Landry Jones, who appears to be cut from the same mold.
It may be giving up “far less” for Gabbert than what it would take to move up but why give anything for Gabbert?
I’d rather move up for RG3, who has demonstrated via tape that he’ll hang in the pocket knowing he’s going to get crushed and deliver a frozen rope with the flick of his wrist than give anything for Gabbert. For being 6’4, Gabbert acts like a girl.
PASS.
I can’t see the Jaguars giving up on Gabbert after one year. They retained the GM who drafted him and I doubt he will want to give up on a 1st round QB so quickly. They have plenty of other holes to fill on that roster.
Gabbert needs an Off season, he wasnt even supposed to be playing yet, just kind of getting the play book.
He doesnt really have any good recievers i think the stat the commentators came up with last night was something like all of Jacksonvilles WR’s career receptions combined doesnt even equal Roddy whites receptions this season. He needs a good #1 reciever and a nice off season and he will get better.
I love our chances of trading up, and i think PC/JS will def do what it takes to do so.
Jags/Carolina/Minnesota
i also see Peyton Manning being a key factor in all of this, hes either going somewhere or luck is, i dont see them on the same team. Of course Luck is going to say he would like to play under a veteran, why wouldnt he? can you imagine what the media would say if he said he didnt?
I think Gabbert needs an entire new team with a stable of good WR’s (like the Hawks), a solid line to give him more than 1.5 seconds before death, and a good RB and TE’s (like the Hawks).
I think one more year of getting killed will turn Gabby into another David Carr. NFL defenses can do that to young QB’s. He needs to get out of there quick, it might already be too late for him, I’m not sure. There is a certain amount of intestinal fortitude needed to survive as a QB, especially with a really crappy team, and Gabby might only have a cup or two, looks like Bradford might have a gallon or two, he is in a similar boat, but faring a little better. It’s a fine line, and a difficult task for a young QB to put an entire team on his back, and a crappy team is much heavier.
I think all 3 of this years crop, RG, Luck and Bark all look at the Hawks as a very enticing place to go due to the fact that the “team” is already built, and just waiting for the QBOTF, and should be an easier place to succeed. A great stadium, atmosphere, coaching staff, big young talented team. Seriously, what young QB wouldn’t be thrilled about coming to play here?
This is much different than most mock drafts, but I like it. It has its question marks but the draft order isn’t even completed yet. Browns fans would love to see Barkley fall to us. I don’t think that would happen though. If it happens then the second round pick needs to be a RT to protect him. I look forward to seeing your mock after the combine.
I don’t see the Hawks trading up unless either Barkley or RG3 drop lower than #9. I expect they will take either Landry Jones or Ryan Tannehill in round 1. DE Billy Winn could be an interesting pick in round 2. He has the size and quickness to backup Red.
To answere the previous question on Aaron Curry, the Hawks received a 7th round pick this year and a 5th next year that is upgradeable to a 4th depending on how many snaps Curry plays for Oakland. Currently he is starting and seems to be a good fit for their defense so I think if he stays healthy next year we will get an extra 4th round pick.
The Seahawks won’t draft Landry Jones, Rock. It isn’t happening. He’s pretty much the opposite of what they’ve admitted they’re looking for at quarterback. Right now, there isn’t a place for Jones in round one for any team. He’s just not shown he’s good enough, he’s a long long way away from being in that range and I’m not even sure he’ll declare after the way things have gone this year. Tannehill has no place in round one either, and I’ll go into that in more detail on Sunday.
Okay Rob, here is my latest piece of NFL Conspiracy Theory- as far out in outer space as it is… John Elway deals Tim Tebow nad maybe some compensatory picks to Jacksonville for their first round draft choice so he can select his hand-picked quarterback. And Jacksonville brings in hometown hero Time Tebow and highers the mastermind who brought Tebow into the league with a first round pick- Josh McDaniels to be the head coach. I know it is absolutely far fetched, but it’s pretty intriguing right? And not entirely implausible.
Perhaps not, but let’s not forget that Gene Smith had the opportunity to draft Tebow in 2010 and passed for Tyson AluAlu. A year later, he’s making a substantial trade up into the top ten for Blaine Gabbert. Sure, Gabbert has struggled. But this is a rookie QB playing behind a bog-standard line with absolutely nothing in the way of pass-catching talent. He’s not had a training camp or off season due to the lockout. He shouldn’t be starting this year – at any cost – they’ve completely messed this up. But another big trade for a guy you passed on just 12 months ago? I can’t see it.
With the way the Hawks are playing, aquiring Luck, Barkley or RG3 seems more and more remote. As well, my impressions of Carroll and John are they’d rather aquire picks, build through the draft and find a few gems. Finally, as TJ gets healthy, he seems to finally be coming into his own. So my question is, are you still leaning to the Hawks getting a qb in round 1? Great site Rob…really enjoy your insights. Steve
Seahawks have their Quarterback of the Future: Tarvaris Jackson. No way is Carroll going to allow for another mediocre year on an unknown quantity while giving up his chance at winning now.
Tarvaris Jackson is tough as nails, has a decent arm, and wins. He is only going to get better, as evidenced via this year alone.
Time to let go of Barkley and RG III. Seattle has their QB. I would not be surprised if they draft a guard or tackle early. Go figure.
Rob’s mock seems to fit a need as well: a pass rushing 3-tech. Nice job.
Hi Michael,
I don’t think anyone believes Jackson is the QBOTF, including Pete Carroll and John Schneider. Let’s not forget here that Jackson has only a 12:12 TD/INT ratio and has been boom or bust for most of the year. Carroll is not going to put his last shot at the NFL solely in the hands of Tarvaris Jackson. He knows this team has a lot of talent, but lacks a unquestionable long term starter at QB. If there’s a deal to be done to get that quarterback, rest assured it will be done.
Rob
With the Hawks dropping in draft order I wondering how you think a guy like Blackmon could fit in this offense. I know we both agree that the Hawks need a WR who can stretch the field but I also think we need a guy like Blackmon who is strong and physical. I think he will drop to where the Hawks will most likely be picking.
I want desperately for your impression of Carroll’s QB position. But it messes with my fandom 🙂
When I am objective. When I am not roster manipulating success. I realize that any QB beyond Barkley and Luck are “years” away from starting. Years. Carroll does not have “years”. Football, like life, is and always will be about now. And right now, Jackson is getting it done. We are the early 2000 Tampa Bay Bucs. Find a QB that simply does not lose games.
If we sell the farm for Barkley, I’m all in. If not, I expect to see a Jackson extension this coming Spring. I want to believe in the dream that is Barkley, but see no reality of it. That said, Seattle has been looking for an elite QB for four or five years. They’ll not find it while “Winning Forever”.
Love ya, Rob. I want desperately to believe. Reality just won’t let me continue to deny the reality of the game manager QB: Tarvaris Jackson.
The thing is Michael, there’s been evidence of teams trading up from the late teens and 20’s into the top ten. I expect Seattle will pick in the late teens, which is only the same area that New York moved up for Mark Sanchez. It’s earlier than the range Atlanta moved up for Julio Jones. Cleveland – a bad team with a lot of needs – took the hit to move down knowing they could accumulate players to build a team. Seattle has – to a certain degree – built it’s team. Atlanta felt they needed one more elite pass catcher, Seattle should think they need one elite thrower. Team’s like Jacksonville may be prepared to move down knowing they’ll have two first rounders the following year.
Let’s not under estimate Carroll’s admiration for Barkley. He loves the guy. Matt would love to play in Seattle. Maybe the Seahawks are Tampa Bay, but I doubt Carroll is going to sit around hoping Tarvaris Jackson can do what very few others have done in the past. Hey – I’m not of the opinion that a trade up is guaranteed. Would I be surprised if they weren’t aggressive? Sure. This is the time to make their move.
That’s the thing about all this: Carroll may have been planning this from the start. He has neglected the QB situation very obviously since taking the reigns. Maybe he was just waiting for Barkely. He obviously had a very intimate knowledge of Barkley, and could’ve accurately anticipated his coming out in this year’s draft. So that may have put urgency in getting other pieces assembled as opposed to the QB position. It’s by no means fact, but it certainly makes sense to me. I mean I highly doubt NFL teams are ever so nearsighted that they only view college prospects that are coming out this year, and only for the few months between season’s end and the combine. So the Hawks may have well been waiting for Barkley, just really seeing what kind of price they would pay depending on how the season has shaken out. Jackson’s occasional good play has just been a boon, maybe taking the pressure to start said rookie immediately. But let natural competition take over, and best man starts. I believe there is more to this than meets the eye, and it doesn’t seem to be just wishful thinking anymore
Wow. I do enjoy this blog. Civil discussions, with good points along the way. Thanks much for your inputs!
Just for fun: CBS has a picture of the Heisman finalists… RG III looks to be just as tall as Luck. Interesting.
http://eye-on-college-football.blogs.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/24156338/33928727
I know this would require more work and more speculation, but I have a suggestion: can you position your next mock draft based on some prediction of how the season will close? Predictions of how the next few weeks and playoffs will play out and where that would have the Seahawks picking, to me, would be more interesting than positioning it as if the season ended with week 14. Or at some point anyway, maybe after week 16?