Updated mock draft: 28th January

I want these to be about scenarios rather than prospects. So in this mock draft, I wanted to represent what happened at the Senior Bowl and look at a situation where Ronald Jones II is off the board before pick #18.

This mock includes trades. Notes are underneath.

The trades

Buffalo trades #21, #22 & #53 to Indianapolis for #3
The Bills move up to draft Sam Darnold

Arizona trades #15, #47 & 2019 R1 to Cleveland for #4
The Cardinals move up to draft Josh Rosen

Atlanta trades #26 & R3 to Seattle for #18
The Falcons move up to draft Maurice Hurst

Cleveland trades #33 & R4 to Seattle for #26
The Browns trade up to draft Da’Ron Payne

The mock

#1 Cleveland — Josh Allen (QB, Wyoming)
#2 New York Giants — Saquon Barkley (RB, Penn State)
#3 Buffalo (via Indy) — Sam Darnold (QB, USC)
#4 Arizona (via Cle, Hou) — Josh Rosen (QB, UCLA)
#5 Denver — Quenton Nelson (G, Notre Dame)
#6 New York Jets — Bradley Chubb (EDGE, NC State)
#7 Tampa Bay — Vita Vea (DT, Washington)
#8 Chicago — Tremaine Edmunds (LB, Virginia Tech)
#9 San Francisco — Marcus Davenport (DE, UTSA)
#10 Oakland — Denzel Ward (CB, Ohio State)
#11 Miami — Minkah Fitzpatrick (S, Alabama)
#12 Cincinnati — Orlando Brown (T, Oklahoma)
#13 Washington — Baker Mayfield (QB, Oklahoma)
#14 Green Bay — Tim Settle (DT, Virginia Tech)
#15 Cleveland (via Ari) — Ronald Jones II (RB, USC)
#16 Baltimore — Calvin Ridley (WR, Alabama)
#17 LA Chargers — Derwin James (S, Florida State)
#18 Atlanta (via Sea) — Maurice Hurst (DT, Michigan)
#19 Dallas — Roquan Smith (LB, Georgia)
#20 Detroit — Billy Price (C, Ohio State)
#21 Indianapolis (via Buf) — Kerryon Johnson (RB, Auburn)
#22 Indianapolis (via Buf, KC) — Joshua Jackson (CB, Iowa)
#23 LA Rams — Isaiah Wynn (G, Georgia)
#24 Carolina — Taven Bryan (DT, Florida)
#25 Tennessee — Rashaan Evans (LB, Alabama)
#26 Cleveland (via Sea, Atl) — Da’Ron Payne (DT, Alabama)
#27 New Orleans — James Washington (WR, Oklahoma State)
#28 Pittsburgh — Harold Landry (LB, Boston College)
#29 Jacksonville — Lamar Jackson (QB, Louisville)
#30 Minnesota — Courtland Sutton (WR, SMU)
#31 New England — Leighton Vander Esch (LB, Boise State)
#32 Philadelphia — Mike McGlinchey (T, Notre Dame)


— Josh Allen at #1 number represents two thoughts. Firstly, that John Dorsey will likely add a veteran quarterback such as Alex Smith. Whoever they take at #1 surely isn’t going to be tasked with immediately leading the Browns back to relevance? Smith instantly made Kansas City competitive after they ‘earned’ the #1 overall pick in 2013. A move like that buys Allen time. And if you’re drafting to develop a QB, Allen is the prototype. Great size, mobility, arm strength, hand size, the ability to make gains on the ground. Fans and media might prefer the bigger names but it’s completely plausible that GM’s and coaches will look at Allen as the ultimate lump of clay to mould.

— Saquon Barkley is so good, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he’s receiving Andrew Luck level grades from some teams. I don’t think it’s automatic that the Giants just draft a QB to eventually replace Eli. Dave Gettleman is determined to repair the O-line and will reportedly do whatever it takes to sign Andrew Norwell. If he gets it right up front, imagine how potent the Giants could be with Odell Beckham Jr, Evan Engram and Saquon Barkley. They also have enough talent on defense to be competitive. Are they thinking long term, or about the opportunity to win immediately?

— Teams were aggressive in trading up for quarterbacks a year ago. This mock represents the possibility that this could happen again, with the Bills and Cardinals making big moves to get Darnold and Rosen.

— A lot of mocks only have one running back — Saquon Barkley — going in the first round. Ronald Jones II is certainly talented enough to go very early, possibly top-20. I gave him to the Browns here because John Dorsey had first hand experience of Jamaal Charles’ impact at Kansas City. Jones II is Charles 2.0. I still think it’s possible Kerryon Johnson goes in round one too. He ran with toughness, legitimised Auburn’s season in 2017 and shares Le’Veon Bell’s patience in the backfield. Josh McDaniels spent a top-15 pick on Knowshon Moreno when he was in charge in Denver. He could push for another talented runner if his new team trades down.

— I made some picks that I don’t necessarily agree with. I think Billy Price is one of the best players in the class but many others see him as a borderline first rounder. Having him go at #20 was a compromise between the two positions. Denzel Ward (CB, Ohio State) is expected to have a sensational combine and that could propel him in a week year at cornerback. It also felt like the right time to move Isaiah Wynn up the board. Following his sensational Senior Bowl and superb 2017 season, he thoroughly deserves to go in the first round. What a talent.

Notes on the Seahawks

— As I said at the start, I want these to be about scenarios not players for now. That’s why I deliberately didn’t place Seattle with an individual at #18 or after the two trades. That said, there are appealing options left on the board at running back, the O-line and defensive front seven. Will Hernandez and Frank Ragnow are there. Nick Chubb, Sony Michel and Rashaad Penny are there. There’s a whole host of defensive possibilities, including the find of the Senior Bowl Darius Leonard.

— I wanted to do a mock where the Seahawks don’t get a golden ticket offer via trade. Fans have talked a lot about doing a deal for a couple of second round picks, or a second and a third. It’s possible such an offer isn’t available — especially with this being a draft with minimal legit first round picks. Here the Seahawks are forced to trade down twice just to get a third and a high fourth. They end up with pick #33 but could feel obliged to move down again.

— If there’s one running back I think the Seahawks might consider taking at #18, it’s Ronald Jones II. He’s different to any of the backs Seattle has drafted in the Pete Carroll era so far but he has a special quality. He could be a star. He’s off the board here so it takes that option away. They trade down instead.

— This scenario raises what I think is a key point — the likely need to hedge at running back. They’ll possibly sign a veteran RB of some description. Whether that’s a Carlos Hyde type or someone a lot less high profile, they probably have to at least prepare for needing to wait on the running backs longer than they might prefer.

— They might need to add to multiple positions. D-line, linebacker, cornerback, safety, receiver, tight end, O-line, running back. This would be exercise in finding value and identifying the pockets of talent available at each position. For example, how long can you wait on a running back? Are Nick Chubb and Rashaad Penny, for example, second or third rounders? How early do you want to add a receiver? Do you wait until day three or consider D.J. Chark (one of the big risers in Mobile) earlier? How early is Durham Smythe going to go and could he have some appeal as a ‘Y’ tight end? When do you start re-stocking on defense and who are the players that can help make up your next core? How early is Darius Leonard going to be taken? Do you need to find a safety? And will you have enough room for the customary fifth or sixth round cornerback pick?

— A lot of the questions above are difficult to answer. And there are more. For example, can anyone say with any confidence where they think Marquis Haynes, Tyquan Lewis, Andrew Brown, B.J. Hill, Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, Lorenzo Carter, Jeff Holland, Terrell Edmunds, Justin Jones, Da’Shawn Hand, Kyzir White and others are going to go? You could list more. The combine will provide some answers. Yet there are a long list of defensive prospects (and some offensive ones too) where the stock could be anywhere from round two to round five. We know the Seahawks are going to try and start re-shaping the defense. Projecting who might go where is the challenging part.

— Durham Smythe (TE, Notre Dame), Darius Leonard (LB, SC State), D.J. Chark (WR, LSU), Austin Corbett (T, Nevada), Marquise Haynes (LB, Ole Miss) and Tyquan Smith (DE, Ohio State) gave off quite a ‘Seahawky’ vibe at the Senior Bowl. We’ll see how they test at the combine.

— One other thing I’ve noticed doing these mocks this year is there’s something slightly unsatisfying about the projections. That’s indicative of where the Seahawks are right now. In previous years they’ve had one or two needs. It’s been possible to identify someone they might like or at least someone fans can agree would fill a need. This year, there’s a lot more work that needs to be done to the roster. You’re unlikely to take solace in any mock draft over the next few weeks, pairing Seattle with one name at #18. You’re probably going to be more reassured by an overall assessment of what’s actually out there in this draft class. The positions of strength, the options, the possible targets. So that’s what we should aim to cover over the next few weeks.

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  1. Rawls

    The trade compensation doesn’t seem worth it. Only a 3rd and 4th to go from #18 to #33.

    • Rob Staton

      That could easily be the reality I’m afraid. The last time someone traded the #18 pick was 2013. The Cowboys moved from #18 to #31 and got a third round pick only in return.

      That’s the precedent.

      • Brandon

        Than don’t trade.

        • Kyle

          Sure. If perceived value isn’t worth it you can skip it. However if who is left at 18 is not someone appreciably better than whom you’d grab at 33, AND youd get another potential contributor out of it, some would take the chance. Schneider regularly pushes for quantity

        • Patrick Toler

          Yet that 3rd rounder is pretty valuable. Could be used on Smythe for example, who looks like he could step right onto the field and start for the next ten years.

          • JD

            even more valuable given how few picks they have

      • Preston

        Rob, could you include an earl Thomas trade in the next mock??? John Clayton believes he is worth a first, but may come in the form of the equivalent of a first. Seeing its not a great secondary crop this year, could play factor into increased value for earl.

        • relaxxin

          I also am curious about this. How does Earl playing his cards this early affect both the Hawks leverage and another trader partner? If Earl wants a long term deal it comes down to Seattle or a Texas team(most likely Dallas). I suppose a team could take a chance and “lease” him for a year but that doesn’t seem worth it. Couldn’t Dallas just wait it out and then sign him after next season(this would allow them to see how healthy he is and if he is still producing). I love Earl, but 10-15 Mil is a lot for a player at his age. We could also draw it out and then tag him next year if he plays well.

        • Rob Staton

          I don’t really want to do anything that involves an Earl trade until we have to. There are too many things to work out for that. Compensation being the trickiest thing of all to project.

    • CHawk Talker Eric

      The particulars are slightly different but overall that’s how it went down last year.

      In 2017, trading down from 26 to 31 netted a late R3 (95), and from 31 to 34 netted an early R4 (111). The compensation for the total trade down from 26 to 34 was a late R3 & early R4.

      In Rob’s scenario for this year, SEA are trading down from 18 to 33, which is a little bit more of a drop than the trades last year. They should expect similar compensation, just a bit earlier in each round. In fact, the pick from CLE should be the first pick in R4, which is essentially a late R3.

      • Sean-O

        That’s a good way to look at it. I think we’re all pretty confident that we won’t see SEA picking on that first night.

        • CHawk Talker Eric

          My gut feeling is that they want RJ2, but somewhere in the 20s after a modest trade down – kind of like with Bruce Irvin.

          Almost certain they’ll trade down once. If RJ2 is available at that new pick, I’d bet they’d take him. If not, I’d look for them to trade down again.

          • Greg Haugsven

            I completely agree. If we trade back that far and dont net a round 2 pick I would be pissed. With recent trade charts Ive seen I think going from 18 to 26 could net us the Falcons second rounder, may have to give them a fifth as well.

            • Greg Haugsven

              Its good to different scenarios though because you have to think there is probably a 95% chance we dont pick at 18 so why concentrate on who will be available at 18 when your most likely going to be picking somewhere between 26-37

  2. Brandon Adams

    Rob, you’ve remarked about somewhat of a dearth of true first-round talent this draft. Where does that, for you, place this draft compared to the talent-starved 2013 draft at the moment?

    • Rob Staton

      I think this is a better class overall. The big difference between the two is this year there are QB’s who legitimately warrant early R1 consideration. There’s also a potential superstar in Saquon Barkley, plus some others who will go in the top-10 (Edmunds, Nelson, Chubb) with genuine star potential. I think there’s a chance Ronald Jones II also goes on to become a big deal.

      What 2013 did have was extremely attractive options in the late first and second round. On here we talked a lot about Kawann Short and DeAndre Hopkins before that draft. Both went on to become very successful players. You also had Xavier Rhodes and Travis Frederick at the end of R1 and Le’Veon Bell and Jamie Collins in R2. This class has the potential to have even more options in the late first/early second range, but whether they go on to have the success of the names above is a different matter. There wasn’t much in terms of R3-7 gems in 2013 and I think there’s more potential for that this year. So I’d say with some confidence 2018 should be better overall.

  3. SoCal12

    How would you tier the Running Backs so far? I would love to get RoJo but I’m still not sure I would spend #18 on him. I think we can trade down and still have a shot at a Running Back with potential like Chubb, Michel, Penny, etc. I just don’t see the drop off in Tier being that much if we pass on RoJo early.

    If we do just use our #18 I would rather use it to reload our defense or add a blue chip OL prospect.

    • Rob Staton

      I think you’ve got Saquon, then Ronald Jones II, then Kerryon, then a big bunch all together. I like Chubb more than others but am waiting for news on the combine (injuries, workout).

      • Patrick Toler

        I’m going to have to go back and watch some more of Kerryon. Looked solid and versatile in my initial look, but not in the same class as Chubb as a runner. As you mentioned, his medical check will be critical.

    • H

      Its a really hard situation to navigate, valid arguments either way. I kinda agree about the running backs after Barkley are somewhat similiar in talent, as in Barkley is tier 1 and Jones, Chubb, Michel, and Penny are tier 2 (for me anyway) but Jones is clearly the best of that group

      Im personally of the belief Earl will be traded, not advicating it but theres just too much chatter right now. If we could get a first or a couple day 2 picks that would give us alot more flexibilty. Rojo and Wynn or Price and Chubb would be a really good haul. Either way we get two great players and the run game (should be) fixed.

      • H

        Oh yeah and Kerryon Johnson in tier 2

        • HENRY

          Kerryon looks like a converted WR to RB. We already have that in Procise.

          • Rob Staton

            Don’t agree there. Kerryon has shown he’s a RB. He originally converted from safety.

      • Brandon Mckee

        What about Derrius Guice? Didn’t see much talk of him so far in the post or comments and being a Seattle fan from Louisiana I think he could be a solid contributor. He reminds me of Thomas Rawls a little bit with higher upside.

  4. Hughz

    I don’t think I’m moving back a second time for a 4th round pick

    • Rob Staton

      Who is off the board between #26 and #32 in this mock draft that would tempt you to think that way?

      • Hughz

        I suppose if there’s no one there they like then yes get the best trade possible. It would just seem disappointing to get a 4th rounder.

        • Rob Staton

          Well in previous years such a trade has garnered as much as a R3 and as little as a swapping of R5 picks.

          Seeing as it’s Cleveland’s R4 pick, it is worth pointing out it’s the first pick in R4.

          Trading down doesn’t always generate the haul you hope for unfortunately. I wanted to represent that here.

          • FresnoBrad

            The draft value chart is very reliable but it does leave out compensation draft picks meaning picks in rounds 4 on are worth less points. Basically all trades utilize the draft value chart. This year our 18th pick is worth 900 points & several teams will be open to trading for it.

            • Rob Staton

              I didn’t use the draft value chart.

              • Tecmo Bowl

                The draft value chart is like the MFRP. Projected value. Where in reality picks, or anything for sale really, are worth whatever someone is willing to pay.

                • FresnoBrad

                  Tecmo true and I think trading Earl Thomas will prove your point but if you use the value chart & match it with all the trades that have taken place over the last several years you will find the trades match the value chart.

        • Kenny Sloth

          Until its KJ Wright

          • Hawk Eye

            beat me to it

        • CHawk Talker Eric

          An extra R4 also allows them to move back up like they did for Lockett and Reed.

          I don’t know exactly where Darius Leonard will go, but he’s become one of my favorite Seahawks prospects and I’d like them to have that extra R4 to be able to move up to get him somewhere in R3.

          • FresnoBrad

            Round 4 should have plenty of LB’s & slot DB’s for us. Round 3 has Lockets replacement, RB, DE, DT. When I look at this draft I see a draft that will have lots players who will fall due to teams drafting for need. If we focus on drafting for value & team chemistry we should get great players & a pick or 2 in the 2019 draft.

          • drewdawg11

            I didn’t watch the Senior Bowl practices, etc. What is so special about Leonard? I watched a little bit of his game film… I didn’t see it. I admittedly need to see more, but he didn’t appear to be overly explosive or physical, and his tackling was meh. What did he do this past week to get noticed? This is a legitimate inquiry because I do not know.

            • Rob Staton

              Tony Pauline summed it up perfectly: http://www.draftanalyst.com/senior-bowl-risers-defense

              “Leonard grew on me during the week, as he showed continual progress and was terrific in coverage. Unlike most college linebackers who faceguard most of the time, Leonard displayed defensive back-level ball skills. He easily ran with opposing tight ends or running backs both laterally and down the field, tracked the ball in the air and made good, clean pass breakups.”

              • Tecmo Bowl

                Great analysis. Daniel Jeremiah has compared favorably to Telvin Smith, which I think is spot on. One thing I saw watching Leonard’s tape is that he reads and reacts to play action very well. Like Pauline said Leonard has DB cover skills-he drops into his zone quickly and decisively after the fake is carried out. Like Leonard a lot!

            • Sea Mode

              Here’s his highlights from the game. He’s #50, easy to spot with the white helmet:


              Dude had 14 tackles while sharing playing time!

      • CharlieTheUnicorn

        And in the recent past Seattle has done exactly that… traded 2x for an extra pick or two in the mid rounds. I think they will make at least 1 move down in the 1st and probably 2x…. and I even was out of control (on a previous thread) and thought they would do 3 trade downs in the first. You can’t discount value….

      • DAWGfan

        Mike McGlinchey. He’s the most well rounded tackle in the draft. This is what I think the Hawks should do if they were in the situation, not what I expect them to do. Also, IMO he would not get past Baltimore at 16.

        • Rob Staton

          Not sure the Seahawks would benefit making yet another pick at tackle. McGlinchey is quite finesse too.

          • DAWGfan

            I guess it depends on how Mike Solari feels about him as well. The problem with their past drafts regarding the offensive line is only one player has truly panned out and that is Justin Britt, while I like Ethan Pocic’s potential he needs to gain weight and show he can play at that heavier weight(besides he looks best suited for interior line play). Cable really put the franchise in a bad spot by not developing mainstays along the offensive line with a lot of draft capital. John and Pete can’t be gun shy in drafting the position because of that, this is something bad franchises like the Bengals and Browns do not fixing their mistakes.

            This is my 2 cents as a armchair GM, when the Hawks were at their best under Pete they had a dominating run game, as it stands currently they have a long way to go to get back to that level and it has to start at the O-line(protect your franchise QB and open up running lanes).

            • Rob Staton

              I would counter that, however, by showing that high picks have not been a solution so far. Seattle has one of the most expensive O-liners in terms of draft stock in the NFL. Eventually development has to occur, or you have to find some guys in FA or later in the draft.

              Furthermore, McGlinchey isn’t a particularly special run blocker.

  5. Aaron

    FWIW a Hawks player sealed the victory for the AFC in the Pro Bowl for the second year. Last year Graham dropped a pass that was INT, this year Brown gives up a game ending strip sack to Von Miller.

    • Sean-O

      But at least it came at the expense of a Ram fumbling so I’m okay with that….

  6. CharlieTheUnicorn

    I think we get bogged down by the nuts and bolts of a trade down, but the collect blog is on the right track. A trade down seems the most likely scenario.

    Conversely, what player that could reasonably be at #18, would Seattle take… and forgo a trade down?
    I’m having a hard time with this one…… from a value perspective.

    • RealRhino2

      Of the guys still there at #18 but gone by #32, Taven Bryan is really the only one tempting enough for me to consider it. Still looking for that inside pressure.

    • Greg Haugsven

      I say there is zero players, except possible Barkley.

  7. Hawk Eye

    I like how you have NE at 31
    every other mock I have seen has them at 32 ( with a tackle or a CB going to the Hawks)
    HOPE you are right!

    • Hawktalker#1

      That has got to be the best mock draft Easter egg I have ever seen!!!

      • Tecmo Bowl

        Haha missed that! Fly Eagles fly!!!

  8. D-OZ

    I think Brady is going down. He is going to have Cox in his face all game long. The Eagles back end is underrated,while the front 7 will create enough pressure to rattle the GOAT. Recipe for success; see Hawks last win over NE. IMO. GO EAGLES!!!!

  9. D-OZ


  10. Nathan_12thMan

    Here’s hoping we make good (though likely painful for us fans) moves in FA that net us more draft picks so we can do more in this draft.

    Damn Jeremy Lane for screwing up our trade with HOU.

    • Tecmo Bowl

      Yeah dude the moment after resigning Lane has looked worse and worse again after Houston made us take him back. It’s a shame that his progress really stagnated after that SB injury.

  11. FresnoBrad

    Rob Atanta is in love with Vea & Payne, nothing against Hurst! The 18th pick is very attractive to many teams. If Atlanta can’t get Vea & Payne they could easily trade their pick & move back to target a FS or CB in the 2nd. Also Buffalo is now desperate for a Center hopefully Price is a 1st round talent. I think there is a reasonable chance SS Derwin James drops to the back of the 1st if that happens should we draft him?
    The best thing we can do at this point is avoid over drafting & draft for value, we desperately need to change our team culture.

    • Rob Staton

      With respect, you don’t really know who Atlanta is in love with.

      • FresnoBrad

        Rob with respect you have no clue what I Know! The scouts & GM have stated to other peers they love Vea & Payne that’s a fact, however I guess they could be lying.

        • Rob Staton

          So to clarify, you don’t really know.

          I’m glad we sorted that out 🙂

  12. Ground_Hawk

    Still having fun daydreaming about Seattle getting a number of picks from Cleveland, for Seattle’s R1P18. The dream continues…
    *All of the draft picks were found on drafttek’s website*

    After trading down from 18 w/ Cleveland, acquiring picks: 33, 63, and 129, Seattle drafts something like this:
    **There are many different players that could help Seattle in the first few rounds, so I didn’t want to limit myself**

    1. R2P33: DE Mata’afa WSU/OG Wynn GEO/ DE Okoronkwo OKLA
    2. R2P63: DE Haynes MISS / LB Nwosu USC/RB Penny SDSU/ RB Michel Georgia/ OT Noteboom TCU
    3. R4P116: OLB Griffin UCF/OLB Leonard SC/ TE Smythe ND/ DT Senat USF/ DE Street NCS
    4. R5P129: DE Boesen TCU
    5. R5P132: P Dickson TEX
    6. R5P139: RB Williams LSU
    7. R5P160: WR Carrington UTAH
    8. R7P200: TE Akins UCF
    9. R7P222: FB Hill Michigan

    • FresnoBrad

      Ground hawk don’t overlook the linebacker from Michigan! Rob has identified the TE from Stanford as the best blocking TE if the TE from Penn State is not our type he’s most likely our target. Also Seahawks have shown interest in the Alabama DE who looks like a late 2nd early 3rd pick.

      • FresnoBrad

        TE from ND

    • Hawktalker#1

      Love the work on this as well as the other similar mocks. Thank you.

      The challenge I have is that I believe the Hawks now feel it’s time to step up and support the run game.

      In order to do that I believe one of the majority opinions going is that they need to focus on a RB that can make a difference and stop with the late round and Lacy FA dice rolling. I know I may talk some abuse for that comment, but it is what it is. Another stable of fliers is just too risky. So . . . I think as we tighten up the mocks, they are really going to need to have at least one strong RB and probably a secondary guy as well.

      Although I agree there are many positions that need to be addressed, are any more important than a RB when the Seahawks current handicap of not having one is absolutely holding the team back?

      Part of me even wonders if they do trade ET if they might try something a little aggressive and work to get the #4 pick if Barkley is there. Holy cow, would anyone, anyone at all, not like him in the team even if it meant we were a little light in other spots. I love a great D and the LOB as much or more than the next guy, but when our D is helping and we still can’t score or control a game, it becomes less helpful.

      Perhaps our best way to get to another SB is to get SB.

      • Ground_Hawk

        Thanks for the kind words, they are appreciated.

        Drafting an RB early seems like an obvious choice, but they also need a pass-rusher and another starter on the OL. Trading down from 18 feels likely, to the point it would be surprising if they decided to stay put. Trading back and acquiring more picks is the Schneider-way, at least to this point in his tenure with Seattle.

        Drafting Saquan B would be a Seahawks draft miracle! Within reason of course 🙂

        • HENRY

          “Trading back and acquiring more picks”. Seahawks want to be a dominant run team but yet we want to tinker around and grab a collection of “Seahawky” players. Thats bs….honestly besides russell wilson and G.tate who have we drafted in offense worth mentioning? We strike out every year with this dumb ideology.

          • H

            Im pretty unsure what your point is here? If the goal is to rebuild the run game we can trade back and almost certainly still get a really good RB

          • Ground_Hawk

            The Seahawks, as well as most teams, are going into the draft with multiple positions of need, so they need the extra ammo to get the job done. Maybe you’re on to something though, and Schneider does stay at 18, or even more shockingly moves up!

    • drewdawg11

      Whoa, Hercules M shouldn’t be drafted until day 3. I definitely don’t see his natural positional fit yet in the NFL. Undersized DT, not a super fit to play edge.

      • Ground_Hawk

        The Mata’afa pick is my hot-take, but yeah, rounds 2-4 are where I think it’s reasonable to expect him to go, so I agree with you about him potentially going on day 3. If he’s as explosive at the Combine as he appears on tape, then the 2nd round is not out of the question.

  13. Aaron

    The mocks are definitely unsatisfying for me. Hawks have 9 picks as of right now, correct? I would argue that’s a great starting point. The obvious problem is no picks on day two. Remember we had a big haul last year and expect many of them (Pocic, Shaq, Naz, likely Hill, possibly Darboh, and of course Carson) to compete for and make solid contributions to this team in 2018. We might net a day three pick or two if we were to trade Bennett. We aren’t in a bad position. We could easily enter day one of the draft this year with 10+ picks. Yes, most of those will be day three but we’ll have plenty of ammo to trade up into day two to get at least one pick. I would love a trade down at 18 to the early second and a trade up into the third. The Hawks would pick something like this…

    1st – 0
    2nd – 1
    3rd – 1
    4th – 2
    5th – 2
    6th – 0
    7th – 2

    That’s a conservative 8 picks, which ain’t too shabby. I’d say anything over 7 is good and over 10 fantastic. We aren’t in as bad a situation as many think we are. The day two gap is a concern, but easier to remedy than some think it is.

  14. FresnoBrad

    Rob Atlanta has stated they love DT’s Payne & Vea. Also they are desperate at FS.

    • Rob Staton

      No, they have not stated this.

      • FresnoBrad

        Yes they have!

        • Rob Staton

          Please stop.

  15. :Nem Beselek

    Two things:

    First off, in years where it really didn’t help the team all that much to trade down, Schneider has traded down. This year it would really help if Schneider could make a trade for some extra picks on day two, or/and early day three. It is basically a lead pipe cinch lock that he will try to swing a trade for more picks. The only question is who do we target, and where?

    Secondly, I spend way, way too much time on Fanspeak and Firstpick and every time I take a running back or a D-lineman it is a disappointing draft. Every time I take a Guard first the draft lays out very well. There are simply going to be running backs and D-lineman available in the mid rounds (if we can pick up a few draft picks there, that will fit our purposes really well.

    There are only so many good guards (and very few good tackles) I this year’s draft, and we would really use one.

  16. FresnoBrad

    Besides Derwin James & Hernandez I don’t any 1st round possibilities. Unless we take the Alabama safety but there’s a chance we could get him round 2. I like round 2 OL, safety, RB, CB, DE, DT but I can see at least 2 of these picks falling to round 3. In round 3 I don’t see our DE, DT, WR, & TE falling to round 4 but I see LB’s galore & slot DB’s better than our current slot Coleman. Round 5 we are currently in great shape. Also we might need a round four pick for kicker San Diego also needs a kicker so we definitely have competition for kicker. Finally there might be an NFL ready punter in this draft, there’s a guys who punts with both feet, 1 foot for short punts & the other for long kicks.

  17. Coach

    If Atlanta needs a FS, Quinn might make a trade for Earl. They might want him bad enough to give us their 2nd round pick. I think I’d take that!


    Go Hawks!

    • SoCal12

      Earls is worth way more than a second rounder. At least a first and then some in my eyes. People are getting a little too trigger happy when it comes to Earl lately in my opinion.

      • millhouse-serbia

        This year 2nd + next year 2nd.

      • TTownHawk

        I REALLY hope we don’t trade Earl, but it is also easy to overvalue him in a trade. I think it is a pipe dream that we could get a first rounder for him. MAYBE a late first, but that is a stretch. I only say this because he is going to be 29 going into next season and in a contract year. If he were 2-3 years younger, I would say a first wasn’t nearly enough. At this stage in his career, I just don’t think the value will be there in a trade. I would be happy with him playing out the last year of his deal and letting him walk.

        • Smitty1547

          Even if he holds out and misses the first 6 games?

    • Donald

      A 2nd rd pick for a future HOF safety? Atlanta’s 2nd rd pick is 56th overall, it is not enough. Atlanta’s first round pick would be acceptable at #26. Still I would go to the highest bidder, and not to a SB contender in the NFC.

      • Mark Souza

        A 2nd rd pick for a future HOF safety? Sure, why not? We aren’t trading Earls past, were trading what he can do with the remainder of his career. His best years are behind him. He’ll probably have a couple more good years, and that’s what gives him value in a trade. Remember that we traded a 7th for HOF, and best receiver to walk the planet, Jerry Rice. Clearly a 7th is what we thought what he had left in the tank was worth. You trade for what they have left, not for what they WERE.

        We spent a mid 1st rounder for Earl. and he was worth it. Now what draft pick would you spend for a guy not quite as good as that rookie, who has maybe 2 or 3 years left of playing at a high level? Knowing that, you probably would spend more than a 2nd round pick. I know I wouldn’t go any higher.

    • Troy

      I would not let Earl go for anything less than a first. He is a hall of fame safety who is still in his prime, if we got their first and maybe their 3rd or 4th I would def take that deal.

      • Greg Haugsven

        Pick 58 for Earl I say no thanks. I’d maybe take pick 26 and resign McDougald.

    • C-Dog

      Earl is worth at least a R1 and R4 pick. If they deal him, they could be looking at picks and a player to make it work under another team’s cap.

  18. bankhawk

    Questions for the community at large, re moves in F/A and regarding our vets

    -Earl…the toughest question for me-really want to see him retire a Hawk. Also, trading him looks ât least a bit messy as any worthwhile deal implies him having been êxtended?

    -Can we both re-sign Sheldon and êxtend Brown? And still make a couple of modest moves in F/A?

    -Let JG and PR walk and hope for 2019 comps? Luke?

    -Retain McDougald? Personally Im hoping that happens.

    Im still hoping JS can work through the above obstacle course whilst addressing a need or two with f/a bargains and maybe even netting an additional pick or two along the way before the time to parse trade-down opportunities rolls around. Am I being wildly opimistic hêre?

    • Greg Haugsven

      Extending Brown would lessen his cap hit so yes we could extend him for sure. I think resigning McDougal all depends on what happens with Earl and Kam. If they both are going to play you can’t really pay 3 safeties. If one of them moves on before free agency I would for sure want to resign him. If we resign Sheldon that’s a big chunk which doesn’t give you much. Would people whether resign Sheldon or say throw a one year $8 million prove it deal to Justin Pugh for example?

    • C-Dog

      I think signing McDougald and extending Brown are probably the safest bets.

      My hunch is that Sheldon will get more $ elsewhere than in Seattle, and he is gone.

      I think it is 50/50 whether Thomas is in Seattle this year.

    • Del tre

      Shouldn’t spend on anyone but Richardson and Brown, then everything else should be to make an effort for Boswell.

      • Del tre

        Norwell dang autocorrect.

        • Sea Mode

          Haha, thought your desire for a good kicker had reached new heights there. 😉

          • Del tre

            I thin k there’s a reason the Hawks have 3 seventh rounders, I expect a premium to be put on special teams. I also think three fifth rounders says they feel a lot of talent is being overlooked in this draft.

  19. FresnoBrad

    I think Earl Thomas could one day have career better than Herschel Walker. We all know that Minnesota ended up getting Walker But don’t forget Cleveland offered Dallas 1 player, 2 future round 1’s, and 3 2nd round picks for Walker, Dallas turned it down.
    I fully expect Schneider is racking his brain figuring out what Earl is worth in today’s NFL.

  20. FresnoBrad

    What’s the deal with LT Fant? Will he be ready to go? If so I think we could trade Dwayne Brown to Philly for their 31st pick.

    • Aaron


    • CharlieTheUnicorn

      32nd pick *


    • HENRY

      Trade the best and experienced lineman to a team that has an all pro LT named Peters? ….smh

      • FresnoBrad

        Looks like Peters career is over!

    • Mark Souza

      Kind of ballsy trading your LT for a player we all hope can play, but got hurt before he showed us anything.

  21. Awsi Dooger

    As a Dolphins fan I wouldn’t mind Fitzpatrick. That’s one of the more interesting assignments to Miami. I realize this is a very old and obscure comparison but Fitzpatrick reminds me of a modern day Tim Foley. He was a pest on the Dolphins glory teams in the early ’70s. Very smart versatile player. They used him at cornerback but everybody knew he could play safety also, other than we already had two star safeties in Jake Scott and Dick Anderson.

    Foley blocked kicks and basically did anything that contributed to victories. The Dolphins lately have had a sad lack of resourceful types like that.

    I’m not sure Miami would take Fitzpatrick above Derwin James. It certainly would not be popular on Dolphins forums right now.

    BTW, has a forecast trade at this point of the process ever actually happened as called?



    I’m not a huge fan of something that is 0 for world history.

    Just devote that space to discussion of a player or two. Otherwise this blog is much appreciated. Extremely high caliber.

    • Patrick Toler

      The odds of a particular forecasted trade coming to fruition are unlikely, but that’s not the point of including it is it? More so, as Rob noted, to look at what kind of trade scenario might be available. I think there’s value in that.

    • Del tre

      Yeah they aren’t tradong Earl without a top 15 pick and a clear cut replacement. It would be senseless to trade him for the supposed values ive seen, the Hawks would just be a worse team for it. Unfortunately one of the things I’ve noticed about seattle sports media is that they tend to make big deals out of small things, holding out for a new contract isn’t that crazy, Earl said he wants to finish it out in seattle anyways.
      On this site I know that’s not why, we just really like to draft and 1 pick in the first 3 rounds is less fun. And earl is worth the most

  22. millhouse-serbia

    Rob, if we can trade some vets for picks, would you rather trade for this year or next year picks?

    • Rob Staton

      Depends what’s on offer

  23. Donald

    I like the idea of trading back to Atlanta for #26 and RD 3 pick as Rob suggests, only if Seattle can trade ET for a mid 1st rd pick. They need to pick a high impact talent. I wish Seattle can find a way to pick up Ronald Jones AND DJ Chark (WR), that would double the Offensive firepower.

    • HENRY

      Why would another team trade thier first for a player who they can get next year as a free agent?

      • Greg Haugsven

        Who says he would be a free agent? The Seahawks could use the franchise tag. Also who says that Earl would pick the Falcons? If the Falcons traded for him they then could also use the franchise tag. Lots of reasons why you would trade.

    • Del tre

      Why wouldn’t they be able to grab Chark? I’m almost certain he will fall to earl round 3

  24. bankhawk

    Don’t believe I’d let Earl go for anything less than a first rounder and change. But for a second? I can’t see it. At that point, I think I’d stand pat.

  25. HENRY

    Schneider will out think himself and end trading back. Collecting more picks and missing on the percieved targets. Bet

    • Sea Mode

      Well, you would have lost that bet the last couple years, because he said after the draft that McDowell and PRich were his original targets in R1 anyway, and he was able to collect more picks and still get them.

      You can argue all you want about whether those were the right guys to target, but IMO your current argument holds no weight and is more whining about nothing than discussing something useful.

      • HENRY

        And how did that turn out for Seahawks? Until this year Prich was another Procise and Mcdowell…..we all know how that went. My point is he’s missed on alot of good players the last couple years while trading back.

      • Tecmo Bowl

        “(JS) said after the draft that McDowell and PRich were his original targets in R1 anyway, and he was able to collect more picks and still get them.”

        Of course JS would say that. He has nothing to lose by saying he got his guy after moving down multiple times. I don’t really by it. I’m sure PRich and MM were on the short list of a handful of players when we were on the clock. So he traded down and still got one of those players on the short list. It’s very hard to look at the lists of players available at the time, and in hindsight, that PRich and MM were THE target all along.

        JS has gotten more perceived value out of picks by trading down multiple times-casting a wider net so to speak. I fully expect the strategy of casting a wider net to continue this year. Frankly JS needs to acquire more picks this year than in any of the last 4-5 drafts.

  26. Old but Slow

    Trade down early, trade up late. That is our recent pattern, and I don’t disagree with it.

    My pre-combine list (based on info from NASA) takes this approach: We will stand tall at pick 18 if any of these players are there, Q Nelson, Billy Price, Vita Vea, Tim Settle, Ronald Jones 11, or Tremaine Edmunds.

    More likely, we trade down. If we start with a late first/early 2d then I would stand for Will Hernandez, Isaiah Wynn, Marcus Davenport, Braden Smith, or Lorenzo Carter.

    Choices in the 2-3 rounds can be rich, so it would behoove the FO to get some of these picks.
    Running backs, anyone?

    After that, running back or 2, athletes, Shaquem Griffin, David Wells, TE, SD St, a blocking TE that can catch. “Almost another tackle” according to Tony Pauline at Draft Analyst.

    Have I ever been right? Not since Tim Ruskell.

  27. icb12

    Solid Mock.

    It would leave Rosen, Goff, and Jimmy G in our Division.
    Is San Fran really going to spend another top end first on a DE? Thomas last year, Buckner the year before…

    Man, I just have to believe they want more weapons on Offense. They NEED more weapons. I really think Ronald Jones or Calvin Ridley could be in play for San Fran there.
    Rojo and Hyde…. SF version of Freeman and Coleman.

    • Rob Staton

      I see Davenport as an EDGE in their scheme. They have three big interior guys but very little working the edge.

  28. Sea Mode

    Absolutely love this scenarios approach, especially pre-FA and combine it is just too hard to pin down players and team needs.

    Agree that there will be several aggressive trades up for QBs.

    I’m fine with the Browns deal; that R4 is practically a R3, plus you have all night to think over who to take and listen to trade offers. Perhaps almost better than getting a very late R3.

    You would like for ATL to have to throw in some change for that deal, but I get that it doesn’t always play out as per the trade chart and you wanted to reflect that. Heck, it might be the only offer Seattle gets to trade back from #18. Maybe a compromise: we ask for their R4 as well, which would make it even according to trade chart, and they say no way. So we swap one of our R5 picks for their R4, giving us 3 picks in R4 to work with. R4 might end up being a value pocket as well, as you can prioritize some of those borderline day 2/day 3 guys.

    I also am having a tough time trying to guess at some prospects’ draft range, and mostly defer to Pauline’s notes. He’s usually pretty reasonable and says, for example, Darius Leonard “could sneak into the draft’s second day.” So kind of R3-R4 is what I go on for now, although he is likely going to shine with his athleticism at the combine and move even further up.

    All in all, great write up and it’s discussions like this that make draft season on SDB so enjoyable. Cheers!

  29. Mitch

    Hey Rob,

    I saw a quote today by Benjamin Allbright stating that the league isn’t valuing Barkley as high and he could fall outside the top 7. Although I know this is highly unlikely, do you see any chance of Seattle trading up if he falls into that range. He seems to have everything we need and has already proven he can run when the box is stacked which will take pressure off our o line and Wilson?


    • Rob Staton

      I saw that comment and think it will come back to haunt Benjamin Allbright.

      Barkley is going to go in the top five. Lock it in. 100%.

      • Sea Mode

        I talked to a variety of teams, & offered those who follow, that info.

        I’m sorry that information isn’t something you like to hear.

        Oh well, sometimes we get good tidbits from “insiders” and sometimes we get the false ones they are fed. All part of the game, I guess.

        • cha

          I seem to recall lots of talk about Todd Gurley’s injury was going to tumble him out of the first round. He went at #10.

  30. TTownHawk

    If Bradley Chubb doesn’t go top 5, I will be shocked. Kid is an absolute stud and arguably the best player in the draft (though an argument could be made for Barkley as well).

    • Rob Staton

      Chubb is a top five talent in the class. But with the possibility of three QB’s going early, Nelson and Chubb might last into the 5-7 range.

  31. H

    Just been reading a PFF article about the top pending free agents, interesting titbit on Sheldon:
    “Through 17 weeks of the 2017 season, Richardson racked up 36 total quarterback pressures and 22 run stops, which ranked ninth and 17th among defensive tackles this year, respectively.”
    Kinda backs up what I was thinking about him all year, that despite limited sack production he was a really solid performer. If we can get him on a reasonable deal Id really like to see him retained

    On another note they had this to say about popular blog fa target Justin Pugh
    “Pugh enters free agency as a high-end, starting caliber guard, who graded above 80.0 in both 2015 and 2016 (he only has a grade of 52.4 this year, not sure why that is and never pay to much attention to the grades but I do know he had to play some tackle this year and struggled so maybe that set his grade back), and has allowed just 39 pressures over the last three seasons on the interior, the fourth-best mark among guards with at least 750 pass-blocking snaps since 2015.” He also missed 13 games in that span so Im still not convinced he’s that great a target.

    Here’s the whole article if you’re interested: https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-key-stats-on-pffs-top-15-impending-free-agents

  32. Ed

    99% Hawks trade down. If they stay, I think it would be for a pass rusher. They seem to value the DL spot more (in terms of draft areas) than RB/OL/DB. Add that on to no CA and maybe no MB, the DL and getting a rush with 4 guys is key to PC scheme.

    • Rob Staton

      Not sure I agree there Ed. There’s very little evidence that they value DL any higher than other positions. For example, they haven’t spent a single R1 pick on a defensive linemen. Unless you want to include Bruce Irvin. They spent R1 picks on Okung, Carpenter and Ifedi.

      The highest they’ve drafted a DL is round two. That’s also the highest pick they’ve spent on a RB and they’ve spent multiple R2 picks on the OL.

  33. Sea Mode

    Bucky Brooks first mock draft went up the other day. Looks like we’re in for a long draft season of Derwin James to Seattle mocks.


    • H

      National draft pundits are going to see it as a really obvious pick
      I would be okay with it as a late rd 1 pick after a trade down, although not my preference by any stretch, but no way at 18

      • FresnoBrad

        H I think James could fall past 18.

  34. KingRajesh

    I don’t see how, with Earl Thomas already declaring that he won’t play for the Seahawks in 2018 without a new deal, that you can’t trade him. The Seahawks have gotten absolutely hosed when it comes time to give third contracts to players. Marshawn Lynch, Kam Chancellor, and Michael Bennett did not live up to the money that we paid them, which hurt the team. We cannot make the same mistake a fourth time.

    I’m not saying that Prime Earl isn’t worth 13m a year. But will we get Prime Earl? He’s been hurt a TON the last few years, he’s getting older, and he won’t have Kam Chancellor telling him what to do on the field – not to mention the potential he turns into a locker room distraction (remember that stuff with Bobby?) – the LOB needs to go the way of the dodo. Get them out of here, rebuild the secondary with younger, hungrier, and more desperate players, and focus on the young talent that we do have here. That’s how we get back to playing physical football on defense. Expecting now-highly paid and recently injured veterans like Richard Sherman to play the way they played before they got paid is a fools errand.

    If we trade Earl, Bennett, the rights to Kam if he ever wants to unretire (like Marshawn), maybe even Richard Sherman, we could bring in a big draft class that could really energize the team. Now, there would be actual competition for spots.

    • Trevor

      I tend to agree. The only one who does not really offer much in cap savings in Bennett. Trading Earl and Sherm gets you back some draft capital and clears 20mil + in cap space.

      Will the team be better moving on next year by moving on from Sherm and ET of course not but they are not an SB quality team with them so why not make the moves now and start the required rebuild.

      • KingRajesh

        We should move Bennett because he’s a penalty machine and a lockerroom distraction. He can’t get a jump on the snap anymore because he has a reputation for jumping offsides. Even if he isn’t moving before the ball is snapped, if he times the snap well he’s going to get flagged.

        If Tampa offered me a 3rd or their high 4th, I’m probably going to take it.

        • mishima

          How is Bennett a ‘locker room distraction?’

          I would argue he’s a well respected leader.

          • Smitty1547

            Jumped 3 times yesterday in an all-star game with limited snaps, embarrassing

            • Hawk Eye

              he plays the snap count, always has, and that is also how he makes a bunch of plays behind the line of scrimmage. And he did not care during the Pro Bowl. He averages about 1 per game and it was probably his worst year.
              Giving up 5 yards or so every game vs getting 1 or 2 tackles for loss per game is worth it. Getting a free 5 yards does not guarantee the drive survives, but putting teams into 3rd and long should kill drives. Of course, this year the Hawks were bad on 3rd and long, everything just did not work.

    • LeoSharp

      Earl is probably the only one who has a high likely-hood of living up to the value of the deal.It’s a shame he could be traded I think he’s the only one who deserves a top market extension.
      Kam was paid a ridiculous amount of money and so was Marshawn. Bennett’s deal is still pretty good value if the team was ready to compete for a Superbowl but it was clear that he and Avril peaked in 2015. The fact they traded two high draft picks and still only managed to finish 9-7 just shows how much they overestimated the talent they have on the roster.
      John Schneider has done a really bad job the last couple of years and it’s starting to show. especially when you think about small things like trading up for Jarran Reed in the 2nd, The fact they ever had a first-round grade on him is a problem. Nick Vannet being called a blocking TE and his coaches immediately coming out and disagreeing was a very weird. Jimmy Graham a TE who can’t block while the team had no legitimate blocking TE. Drafting Alex Collins a player notoriously bad at taking care of the ball.Tedric Thompson a guy probably to slow to play single high safety in the NFL unless he has HoF instincts. They traded up in the 3rd for Tyler Lockett and basically said he was just a return and they would see what happens at receiver.
      There are numerous moves the team has made that haven’t worked out but that is inevitable, however, these moves are distinct in how questionable they were at the time.

      • H

        “these moves are distinct in how questionable they were at the time.” – I beg to differ
        Jimmy Graham everyone loved this move, we wanted a red zone threat after the sb loss and we got one. Coaching staff failed to use him but thats not JS fault

        Alex Collins had an extremely accomplished college career; he is only the third player in SEC history to rush for 1000 plus yards in 3 seasons, in his final season he scored a school record 20 tds. Yeah he had some fumble issues but he was a 5th round pick. Not to mention he just had a great season for the Ravens so, if anything, the mistake was getting rid of him (no one questioned it at the time though because we all thought our rb room was really strong, so its not fair to criticise it as questionable at the time)

        Tedric Thompson didnt run very fast but he played it at Colarado. He excelled as a deep safety and recorded 11 pass break ups (inc. 3 int). And he was 4th round pick who has had no time to develop so its completely unfair to label him a bust at this point

        Tyler Locket, know I agree with you this one’s egregious… why would the team bring in a guy who set every record possible at K-state (receiving and returning) and who then immediately became a league sensation as deep ball receiver and a pro-bowl kick returner? And who came back from a brutal leg injury to get a similar production to before in just one off season? And to use a 3rd on a guy like that, you’re right all the fans at the time were thinking about what a bust that was.

        Sorry that last one was a little mean spirited.. but it was the example of “moves clearly bad at the time” that i really strongly disagreed with. My point is not every pick can be a gem, and all the moves mentioned here made complete sense at the time, and in most cases have proven to have been good moves imo.

        • Sea Mode


          Just didn’t know how to put it as well as you did.

          • Hawk Eye

            I can see how people would argue that JS is not the best GM in the league, but I doubt many would not see him as a top 10, if not top 5. Go and look at every other franchise and start adding up their mistakes, problem players, bad draft picks, etc. He built up a team that went to 2 super bowls, only 2 other teams have done that in the last 10 years

        • LeoSharp

          The Jimmy Graham trade IMO was one of the worst moves John Schieder has made. His fit on this team has always been questionable. He didn’t fit the mold of the rest of the team or play with the physically of a Seahawk. HIs blocking has been horrendous. Even If he’s considered a big WR his blocking is still embarrassing.

          Alex Collins has a significant fumble issue. He’s had 6 over the last 2 seasons and lost 3 with only 12 starts. That it not Seahawks football. He’s fumbling at a higher rate than Adrian Peterson and is nowhere near good enough to offset that with his play.

          Tedric Thompson is slow for a FS. he was very productive at Colorado but his athletic profile is simply poor. It really doesn’t translate well to the NFL. Which is in stark contrast to every consistently great member of their defense apart from maybe Bennett who has an incomplete agility profile and Chris Clemons who is a significantly rare player in the NFL.

          I’m not saying Tyler Lockett was a bad pick I’m questioning their intentions. Based on what was said after the draft it is more than implied they were looking for a kick returner and decided the top of the 3rd round was a good place to get one. They were surprised at how well he played as a WR which is where my issue is. If Tyler Lockett had only been an elite returner then that would have been an extremely poor value pick.

          • Mark Souza

            I don’t think that’s accurate. They weren’t saying Lockett had no potential as a receiver. They drafted him as a returner, which we desperately needed after suffering a year with Earl Thomas, Richard Sherman, and Bryan Walters handling punt return duties. It was felt Lockett wouldn’t have an immediate impact as a receiver as we had a pair of well entrenched receivers as starters – not that he didn’t have the talent.

  35. Tecmo Bowl

    Really cool exercise that we’ll be playing with extensively. The thing that stood out the most is the trades down leave the Hawks with the first picks of day 2 and 3. In this scenario I would fully expect JS/PC to trade down with each of those picks. The extra ammo would allow us to move up from pick 95 and/or in day 3 to get your targets. We could use the Browns 4th and a 5th to get another 3rd rounder too. Giving us 3 picks in day 2. There’s a lot of flexibility in this scenario, and this is without making any player trades.

    • Sea Mode

      Perhaps look to pocket a pick for next year as well, since we won’t have a R2. Although hopefully a few comp picks come our way.

      • Tecmo Bowl

        At the moment we’re tight against the cap, with a number of valuable UFA’s set to leave, while having little money to replace them in free agency. It’s a numbers game that very likely will reap a few comp picks for 2019-like you said Sea Mode. We’ll have to see how the FA process plays out, and the upcoming ‘purge’ could change things dramatically. Banking on having extra comps picks, I think using a native 2019 pick or 2 to add or move up in the 2018 draft is more likely than acquiring 2019 draft capital.

  36. 503Hawk

    I think Earl is going to hold true to his word about holding out. That being said, how do the Hawks handle this?
    *Resign / extend?
    *Let him hold out thereby just postponing the decision?

    I would NOT trade him to a NFC contender or division opponent. I don’t think they will get a first rounder for him. (Unless something like NE’s 31or 32.) If they do trade him it would have to be to a team that not only has draft / player capital but also cap room. That seems to narrow the field considerably.

    • Hawk Eye

      I doubt he gets traded to NE. They have McCourty at FS and Gilmore at CB, both with big salaries.
      The one team that has room and a need is SF. They play the Seattle system, but that is a dangerous trade to make for the Hawks. The other usual suspects would be Atl, Jags, Raiders.
      But if he is going to hold out, they either have to sign him or trade him before the draft,, IMO. And I think if he forces the issue, they trade him. But they already know if they can replace him, or can change schemes, etc.

      Based on the number of coaching changes they made, it appears Pete is willing to shake it all up and build it up again. I don’t think he is afraid to blow it up and start over again, but still competing at the same time. I can see him welcoming the challenge.

      all we can do is guess, we only get 20% of the info the FO gets with regards to who they keep, who they trade, who they draft. They don’t make decisions with the same information we have.

      going to be an interesting off season, and I think the next one will be also, as I expect they will have much greater draft capital next year.

      • FresnoBrad

        Tenn, SD, Clev, Oak, Atlanta, NO, etc.. Desperate for safety.

        • Hawk Eye

          Tenn has pro bowl safety. NO has cap issues. SD is cheap, they won’t pay him.
          Dallas has cap issues also.

      • Mark Souza

        He’s already signed through 2019. We don’t have to do anything.

    • cha

      His words are just words. I’m guessing it doesn’t change one bit what the Hawks have in mind for him. He freely admitted his agent and the Hawks haven’t talked yet.

      They usually extend their top guys going into the last year of their deal in the spring/summer. So it wouldn’t shock me if they approached him between now and the draft, initiated extension discussions and gauged his trade value around the league and had either an extension or a trade worked out before the draft.

  37. Rob

    The big part of the discussion has been about a straight forward draft but The Earl situation needs to be discussed.

    He wants to be paid, Hawks are strapped currently money wise. He’s 29 soon, been injured 3 straight years. He’s subliminally saying he will hold out. This after running over to the ‘Boys locker room after our game there.

    I hate to say it but if the price is right we need to move him.

    • FresnoBrad

      Siran Neal drooling over him to be our slot guy!

      • Sea Mode

        I like Neal, but what’s wrong with Justin Coleman?

        We also have Mike Tyson in the wings as well.

        • FresnoBrad

          Nothing wrong with Tyson & Coleman but Coleman is limited to slot & gonna cost $$. Siren Neal is better than both with high ceiling and should be available round 4. Neal not only covers like glove but he’s tough as nails.

    • Trevor

      Hate to say it because Earl is incredible but I agree seems like the best solution for all parties. Really curious what his value would be on trade market. Any thoughts?

      • Logan Lynch

        Unfortunately I don’t think it will be as high as we want to think. He really only has expressed interest in leaving for DAL. I’m sure he would threaten a hold out with any team unless he got a new deal. That new deal will likely make him one of the highest paid safeties in the NFL. He’s an otherworldly talent, but he’s also been injured the last few seasons, so that’s an issue. I think we would need to get at least a 1st rounder for him, but I don’t see a team willing to do that and shell out money for an extension.

      • cha

        I feel like he’s worth a mid to late first round pick. Maybe 17-20 at the high end, 29-32 at the low end.

        • Mark Souza

          No way. Suppose you were drafting this year and there’s a safety you get in the last half of the draft, knowing he will make the team and be a starter, but only for two, maybe three years, and next year he’s going to want $13 million/yr.

          Remember, we spent #14 on Earl when we knew he would be good for a decade. Now you expect another team to blow a similar draft pick on him 7 years later when they might get 3 years or less from him? Let’s be realistic. Earl has value, but not that kind of pie in the sky value.

          • Mark Souza

            I meant the last half of round 1.

  38. Overtime

    I love Quenton Nelson. I liked him last year, too. I just don’t see an OG going at #5 overall. That would be high even for an OT. With Billy Price available Denver could trade back and still have a shot at one of them, Nelson, would be the ideal fit at LG for the Seahawks. He would fix this line and make it to the Pro Bowl for years to come. If he is there at #18 I would find it hard to trade back.

    • H

      Almost no chance of that imo. Guards go top 10 if they’re good enough, Brandon Scherff was taken no. 5 by Washington in 2015 for example. (and i don’t think he was as good a prospect as Nelson)

      • vrtkolman

        Chance Warmack and Jonathan Cooper were also top 10 picks, and neither of them were as good as Nelson coming out.

    • Aaron

      If he’s there at 18 we gotta get the fastest guy available to sprint for dear life to the podium. He’s got multiple time Pro Bowler written all over him. Denver will likely take him at 5, otherwise he ain’t gonna make it past the 49ers at 9 or 10. Plenty of depth at guard though. Good options probably available in rounds 2-3.

    • Rob Staton

      Guard Brandon Scherff was drafted #5 overall in 2015. Nelson is better.

  39. Trevor

    just read this on twitter and if true it is pretty cool. Love to see Wynn and both Griffin brothers on Hawks.

    Isaiah Wynn had no interest in playing football until the 9th-grade. It wasn’t until he had a convo with one of his future teammates at Lakewood HS that helped him make his decision to play. That teammate was Shaquem Griffin.

    • AlaskaSouth

      That’s a great tidbit. I’d love to add those two guys.

    • Sea Mode


  40. Joseph

    Pete Carrolls #1 is too fix the running game. His 1st pick should be an offensive. I would love for Seattle to draft G Will Hernandez. If Seattle wants to run heavy and be top 3 in the running game, Hernandez is a must draft. He’s a massive guard and dominating force from snap to end. He’s an extremely good road grader and good pass protector. Always locked in on an opponent and quick to get to the second level. We need a RB yes, but the O-line struggled to create running lanes and drive back defenders. Plug in Hernandez will be a major improvement to the running game.

    • H

      Agreed. Really big fan of his, day 1 starter easily
      Would love get him if we were able to navigate it so that we pick twice in round 2 so that we could still grab a rb

      • Joseph

        It’s gonna be tough. But graham and S Richardson likely gone will give 2 3rd red compensatary picks. We can easily get a RB with a loaded RB draft class. Smart thing to do for Schneider would be to tag and trade Sheldon Richardson. I wanna see them try and trade Bennett but that might be rough.

    • Trevor

      Agree completely.

  41. Brian

    Given this scenario with the Giants taking Barkley, would it be crazy to see them trade up to get Lamar Jackson? or do you think they are locked in going for Offensive Line in Round 2?

    • Rob Staton

      I think it’s possible but they seem to like Davis Webb.

  42. SeahawkeyezSubj80

    Just my two cents.

    1. Seattle trades Earl Thomas to Cleveland for R2 picks #33 & #63.
    2. STAY: Micheal Bennett not enough cap relief and still productive get his on the field percentage down to 50/60%. Kam Chancellor cap prohibitive to release stays on pup/IR used as informal coach, Seattle bites the bullet.
    3. GONE: E.T.(trade), R.Sherman(trade to Oakland R6 pick #178), S. Richardson (free agency), P. Rich. (free agency) Eddie Lacy (really!), Luke Joeckel (don’t resign), Cliff Avril (retire), Jimmy Graham(free agency), Jeremy Lane (release).
    4. EXTEND or RESIGN: Duane Brown, Justin Coleman, B. McDougald, B. Max., Luke Willson
    5. FREE AGENCY: Andrew Norwell (please! please! please)

    6. DRAFT TRADES: Pick #18 to NYG for picks #34 and #66. Also trade picks #160, #200, and #222 to IND. for picks #164, #194, and #195.


    1. R2P1 #33 Tim Settle (DT) Virginia Tech
    2. R2P2 #34 Rashaan Evans (OLB/ILB) Alabama
    3. R2P31 #63 Jordan Whitehead (FS/SS) Pittsburgh [IMO needs to mature]
    4. R3P2 #66 Jaylen Samuels (RB) NC State
    5. R4P20 #116 Andrew Brown (DE) Virginia
    6. R5P4 #132 JC Jackson (CB) Maryland
    7. R5P9 #137 Durham Smythe (TE) Notre Dame
    8. R6P4 #164 Dimitri Flowers (FB) Oklahoma
    9. R6P18 #178 Kamrynn Pettway (RB) Auburn [thanks ROB]
    10. R7P2 #194 Eddy Pineiro (K) Florida
    11. R7P3 #195 Cole Reyes (SS) North Dakota
    12. R7P31 #223 Bryce Bobo (WR) Colorado

    • Rob Staton

      I really can’t see Seattle sending Earl to Cleveland, likely against his wishes. Bennett is almost certainly gone — not because of 2018 cap savings but for the need to get younger and the savings down the line. By the sounds of things the Giants are ready to write a blank cheque for Andrew Norwell so I wouldn’t expect him in Seattle.

      • SeahawkeyezSubj80

        Fair enough. I figured with the cap savings from releasing/trade of Sherman and Avril and others, we would have more cap dollars than Giants (I’m sure Giants can play that game too and create cap space) to sign Norwell. If not draft Wynn at #34 instead. Pray to the football gods McDowell comes back. As far as Earl I think Cleveland would back up the bank truck and by his statements recently in the press Money Talks. I in know way question his heart. I don’t want to trade him, I say pay the man. Its just the GM side of me says the value is with Cleveland. Picks and cap space.
        The only reason I think they stay with Micheal Bennet is I’m trying to see where they replace that production for what 2 or 3 million dollars? Unless a trade for pick(s) i get it. Ultimately getting younger is the idea. But, we cant just throw production out for the sake of getting younger.

        • SeahawkeyezSubj80

          BTW. I’m really liking Pettway since your mention on Hawk Bloggers. If he can get back to form after his Injury . WOW. 2016 highlights are awesome

      • FresnoBrad

        Cleveland’s strategy is back firing due to the fact they will not be able to resign all their high draft picks. Cleveland must spend $$$ this year and they have too many high picks this year. If Cleveland offers 45 million guaranteed to Earl it helps Earl and it helps Cleveland. Earl knows he has a chance for a huge guarantee and he’s going for it.

        • Rob Staton

          This problem really doesn’t exist for Cleveland. They’re spending ample on players like Kevin Zeitler, Jamie Collins, Christian Kirksey, Joel Bitonio and Myles Garrett — not to mention Joe Thomas if he continues. They’ll likely add a veteran, costly QB (eg Alex Smith). A lot of things have backfired in Cleveland but the need to spend isn’t really there.

          There won’t be many places Earl is likely to end up if traded. We can safely say he won’t be going to Cleveland.

      • KingRajesh

        Rob, why?

        Brock Huard always says that “If you [coach/manage/draft] like a fan, you’ll end up one.”

        If Cleveland offers the most to Earl, why wouldn’t you make that move? Coddling players like Marshawn and Kam has directly led to this situation. It’s not a coincidence that all of this garbage started after PC/JS started allowing Marshawn to do what he wanted and giving into his contract demands.

        It’s time, as Pete has said “to turn” – and in order to turn this roster back into a contender, it’s time to make the best decisions for the team. Some of those will be hard. But necessary. Trading Earl Thomas to a team that’s not the Cowboys would be one of those decisions. It’s a business.

        • Rob Staton

          I think there’s a clear difference between ‘coddling’ players and showing respect to people who deserve it.

          It’s also not as simple as putting Earl on the trade block and getting a few offers like happens on Madden and selecting the most beneficial deal. Let’s say Cleveland enquires. Seattle is receptive to the offer and puts it to Earl. He says absolutely zero chance he’ll be signing a long term contract in Cleveland. Suddenly the Browns offer is lowered, because they know they might be acquiring a hold-out or rental.

          To get the most value out of this deal the Seahawks need to find a trade partner whom Earl is willing to sign a long extension with immediately. That’s how you win the day. That’s how you get a first rounder plus.

          • KingRajesh

            I disagree. The defense was coddled too much – they kept everyone around too long and the train has been off the tracks at least ever since the INT at the end of the Super Bowl. Earl has enough “respect” when it comes to money. He was the #1 paid safety, and is paid like he is performing now. Somebody needs to be made an example of in order to show the vets that will stick around that the patients won’t be allowed to run the asylum anymore. It should have been Kam or Sherman last year (which I think would have helped smooth things over today), but now it has to be Earl.

            Remember when the Patriots traded a star like Richard Seymore? I bet that sent a message to everyone else: get in line, or pack your bags. Patriots haven’t had much drama with personnel since then… I wonder why we have so much?


            Cleveland can easily afford to franchise Earl 2x if it came to it. It’s not like holdouts ever work – the CBA doesn’t allow it to. Fines add up quick, and even if Earl has been good with his money, not making any cash is going to start hitting his wallet real quick.

            However, I think Earl would sign on the line anywhere if the Browns ponied up ~$15m APY.

            • Rob Staton

              Coddled to me means they were indulged. I’m not convinced you can use that term accurately to describe Seattle’s desire to keep a legendary group together. Could they have been more ruthless? Perhaps. But the fall in 2017 was more dramatic than I think we realise. In 2016 the team finished 10-5-1 despite having an injured quarterback and no consistent running game or O-line. They had to cope without Earl and several other players too. There was very little hint of any nearby cliff face. Hindsight is a great thing — but I think if most people were being honest, the view was at the end of the 2016 season that it was a missed opportunity and a year ruined by injuries and the O-line. Hey — they were a home loss to Arizona away from being the #2 seed in the NFC.

              In 2017, reality started to bite a bit. The injuries kept coming and were more frequent, the performance level dropped. The edge wasn’t there. So I don’t think the players were indulged. I think the Seahawks went all-in this year believing, rightly, they had a great chance. And it didn’t work. Now it’s time to turn the page.

              We can learn certain things from the Pats but I also think it’s important to remember the other side of the story. Yes they’ve traded players like Seymour and got great value. Their trading of Chandler Jones for a second round pick, however, was a complete disaster.

              As for the Browns, I can only re-state the point I made before. Whether Earl ends up signing a deal or not — he isn’t going to make it easy for you to trade him to the worst team in the NFL by a country mile. He’s going to say no dice. No deal. And the Browns aren’t just going to pony up a $15m a year contract either to smooth things over. They’re more likely to offer less compensation. So it’s a little bit fanciful to think the Browns are going to make a fantastic offer, the Seahawks just accept it and move the problem to Cleveland. I’ll say again — the most realistic scenario and the one that is likely to be most beneficial to the Seahawks in terms of draft stock is the one where it’s mutually beneficial. The player agrees to the move and a big new contract. The Seahawks get a high pick. Everyone’s happy.

  43. Redhawk87

    So I have an updated draft value chart that should be up on Fieldgulls shortly that is built off of how teams have traded over the last five years, and here’s one set of trades that would be fair (less than 2% discrepancy):
    (note, these are just for comparable value trades, not an analysis of if the team would want to)
    Seahawks trade #18 and one of our 5th round picks to PIT for #28 and #60. We don’t gain any picks, but do move up dramatically from the 5th round to the 2nd. The Steelers are able to move up significantly and grab a QB that has fallen, or another player of need if necessary.
    The Seahawks could then trade down another 9 spots to Denver for #37, #99, and #112.
    End result: 2 2nd round picks, 1 3rd, 1 4th, 2 5ths, 3 7ths. We sacrifice decent 1st round draft position for 3 picks on day 2 and moving up a 5th rounder to a mid 4th rounder.
    Who knows if these teams would actually like to make these trades, but the values are comparable.

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