A third round option for the Seahawks?
We’re three weeks away from the draft, meaning just three more projections before April 26th. The top six should be fairly predictable, with really only the order in which Trent Richardson, Morris Claiborne and Justin Blackmon leave the board to be determined. After that, it’s a free-for-all.
I suspect we could see some movement. Jacksonville will hope there’s a market beyond Miami for Ryan Tannehill, enabling them to conjure up an attractive trade offer. Even if that isn’t the case, it makes sense for the Jaguars to explore trade options given their priority must be to build around Blaine Gabbert first and foremost.
Miami could receive trade offers depending on the defensive prospects Carolina are eyeing, while the Panthers themselves could receive interest from anyone looking for the #2 offensive tackle. Even Kansas City could be a hot-spot for teams fearing who the Seahawks will draft.
That uncertainty makes picks 7-11 difficult to project, and therefore it’s tough to gauge who’ll be left for Seattle. Despite increased speculation over the possibility the Seahawks could draft Luke Kuechly or David DeCastro, the teams priority has to be the pass rush. This is a defense that is edging closer to being extremely good. Yet without a compliment to Chris Clemons and an increase in quarterback pressure, it’ll never reach its full potential. Expect the Seahawks to draft a pass rusher in round one and field a top-10 unit if healthy.
I’ve included a second round projection and also a third round choice for Seattle. This mock addresses the three key areas for the Seahawks – pass rusher, linebacker and running back. A prospect in round one who can be a hybrid DE/OLB and will get to the quarterback, a linebacker with range who can cover and a running back that’ll make sure the Seahawks don’t miss a beat when they spell Marshawn Lynch.
Updated first round mock draft
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#1 Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford) The inevitable. |
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#2 Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor) The inevitable part II. |
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#3 Matt Kalil (OT, USC) Minnesota won’t waste any time calling Kalil’s name. He has elite potential. The inevitable part III. |
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#4 Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama) The Browns have to find someone on offense to build around. Richardson would be the wise choice here. |
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#5 Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU) The biggest spenders in free agency, Tampa Bay could still use a stud cornerback. |
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#6 Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State) The Rams know this is now a three-draft plan so they need to take whoever is highest on their board with this pick. |
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#7 Quinton Coples (DE, North Carolina) The Jaguars have been down this route before with Derrick Harvey, but they need a pass rusher. |
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#8 Ryan Tannehill (QB, Texas A&M) If the Dolphins don’t take Tannehill here he could fall. How much does Mike Sherman rate his former Texas A&M starter? |
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#9 Courtney Upshaw (DE, Alabama) Carolina wants players that will fit into 3-4 and 4-3 looks. Upshaw fits the bill. |
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#10 Riley Reiff (OT, Iowa) The Bills are going to draft an offensive lineman here, the only question is which one will they choose? |
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#11 Luke Kuechly (LB, Boston College) Scott Pioli loves guys like this – blue collar, high work ethic. Not always spectacular, but always solid. |
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#12 Melvin Ingram (DE, South Carolina) Seattle needs to find a DE/OLB hybrid to fit into the defense and help the pass rush. |
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#13 Cordy Glenn (OT, Georgia) Whoever is playing quarterback for Arizona next year, the Cardinals simply must draft an offensive lineman. |
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#14 Dontari Poe (DT, Memphis) One of the 3-4 teams will convince themselves they cannot live without Poe’s major potential. |
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#15 Fletcher Cox (DT, Mississippi State) Someone will fall for Cox’s athleticism and ensure he’s taken early in the first round. I prefer him in a 3-4. |
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#16 Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame) He’s rising, but not everybody will buy into a guy with off-field issues. New York might be willing to turn a blind eye. |
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#17 David DeCastro (OG, Stanford) Cincinnati will want to make sure one of their first round picks is a corner, but DeCastro is hard to pass here. |
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#18 Whitney Mercilus (DE, Illinois) With the top offensive lineman leaving the board before the #18 pick, San Diego may fill another big need here. |
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#19 Michael Brockers (DT, LSU) Trading for Brandon Marshall will allow Chicago to concentrate on the best lineman available at this spot. |
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#20 Mark Barron (S, Alabama) He played incredibly well in 2011 and if teams are satisfied with his health, he should be a top-20 pick. |
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#21 Stephon Gilmore (CB, South Carolina) Gilmore’s performance at the combine has seemingly done enough to cement his place in the top-25 picks. |
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#22 Kendall Wright (WR, Baylor) Cleveland needs to keep adding playmakers and could see Wright as a nice compliment to Greg Little. |
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#23 Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama) Coverage skills are the issue here but eventually someone will pull the trigger on Kirkpatrick. |
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#24 Jonathan Martin (OT, Stanford) This would be tremendous value for the Steelers. |
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#25 Doug Martin (RB, Boise State) This is now the Peyton Manning show and they need to build around their prized addition. Martin does everything well. |
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#26 Stephen Hill (WR, Georgia Tech) Mind-blowing potential given his size, athleticism and hands. He stood out in limited targets during the 2011 season. |
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#27 Devon Still (DT, Penn State) Would anyone be surprised if New England traded this pick? This could be an area where the fourth QB leaves the board post-trade. |
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#28 Vinny Curry (DE, Marshall) Don’t be surprised if Curry goes much earlier than this. |
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#29 Dont’a Hightower (LB, Alabama) Dont’a Hightower looks like he was born to play defense for the Ravens. |
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#30 Coby Fleener (TE, Stanford) His pro-day raised a few eye-brows and he could go in the top-25. |
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#31 Peter Konz (OC, Wisconsin) Possibly the best bargain in the first round. Konz is the real deal. |
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#32 Bobby Massie (OT, Ole Miss) A bit of a late riser, Massie looks like a solid right tackle. New York are good enough to make a pick this this. |
Round two
#33 St. Louis – Jerel Worthy (DT, Michigan State)
#34 Indianapolis – Kevin Zeitler (OG, Wisconsin)
#35 Minnesota – Reuben Randle (WR, LSU)
#36 Tampa Bay – Bobby Wagner (LB, Utah State)
#37 Cleveland – Mike Adams (OT, Ohio State)
#38 Jacksonville – Alshon Jeffery (WR, South Carolina)
#39 St. Louis – Kelechi Osemele (OG, Iowa State)
#40 Carolina – Jayron Hosley (CB, Virginia Tech)
#41 Buffalo – Mychal Kendricks (LB, California)
#42 Miami – Andre Branch (DE, Clemson)
#43 Seattle – Zach Brown (LB, North Carolina)
#44 Kansas City – Amini Silatolu (OG, Midwestern State)
#45 Dallas – Jared Crick (DE, Nebraska)
#46 Philadelphia – Nick Perry (DE, USC)
#47 New York Jets – Lamar Miller (RB, Miami)
#48 New England – Shea McClellin (DE, Boise State)
#49 San Diego – Brandon Brooks (OG, Miami OH)
#50 Chicago – Josh Robinson (CB, UCF)
#51 Philadelphia – Brock Osweiler (QB, Arizona State)
#52 Tennessee – Kendall Reyes (DT, Connecticut)
#53 Cincinnati – Ronnell Lewis (LB, Oklahoma)
#54 Detroit – Lavonte David (LB, Nebraska)
#55 Atlanta – Chandler Jones (DE, Syracuse)
#56 Pittsburgh – Mohamed Sanu (WR, Rutgers)
#57 Denver – Brandon Thompson (DT, Clemson)
#58 Houston – Josh Chapman (DT, Alabama)
#59 New Orleans – VOID
#60 Green Bay – Brandon Weeden (QB, Oklahoma State)
#61 Baltimore – Harrison Smith (S, Notre Dame)
#62 San Francisco – Casey Hayward (CB, Vanderbilt)
#63 New York Giants – David Wilson (RB, Virginia Tech)
#64 New England – (Brandon Boykin, CB Georgia)
Seahawks third round pick: Robert Turbin (RB, Utah State)
Ugh- Ingram. This must be how Doug and CLT feel every time you pick Upshaw. I would be VERY disappointed with this pick. I don’t see what others see in the guy. No strength. Gets blocked out very easily by talented tackles and they are all talented in the NFL. Actually looks like a below average to poor tackler in space. Excellent burst and spin move though. IMO, a 3rd rd talent, probably will not live up to the hype.
Zach Brown in the 2nd. No surprise there either.
LOVE the Turbin pick though. Great physical runner.
I don’t like Zach Brown at all. Might be a special athlete, but plays soft and that goes against everything Carroll preaches for our defense.
If Kendricks is off the board, I rather draft Lavonte David, even if he doesn’t posses the ideal size Carroll would want.
Rob, how do you see Ingram in our D? Can he play the “SLB/elephant” like Upshaw?
I wouldn’t mind George Iloka in the 3rd either. We are deep in corners, but could use a 3rd safety to spell/backup and put in the Bandit.
There are actually a lot of stout, powerful backs in the late rds. Kind of like the idea of getting Bryce Brown in the 6th if we havent gotten one by then.
Shawn – I’m not a big fan of Ingram… but if he’s there and Upshaw’s off the board, he’s very much an option.
brazilianhawk – Yeah it’s the same kind of role, although Ingram is more agile and has more speed, but he’s not quite as good reading in space, vs the run or when engaged with a tackle.
I really hope Coples falls to us, but this is a very likely scenario. Love Brown in the second. Not sure how I feel about Turbin, but I would not be upset.
Do you really think Doug Martin will go in the first round? I thought he’d drop to the second. I also don’t see Chris Polk in your mock. Are you projecting the third round? I’d be surprised if he lasts that long.
On a side note, are you going to do a mock draft contest for the draft?
USAFANARC – I do think Doug Martin is a R1 level talent. Potential stud in the making, will be a FF dream early in his career. Polk I have going in R3/4 but I like the guy. I will consider doing a mock draft competition but last year’s didn’t receive a big response.
USAFANARC,
I can see the Doug Martin in the first, Denver’s Oline isn’t terrible, and the Defense is pretty good, not great but good, and they do need a RB….sorry for blathering I live out in the Denver area, and people are pretty sick of Knowshon Moreno, and McGahee igetting up there…
Rob,
Thanks for mixing it up a bit, but honestly I think if Ingram is there, and know one else, perhaps the Seahawks should consider a trade down, or just be ridiculous and quote/unquote overdraft for someone like Hightower…..If people are concerned about Upshaw’s size and tweener label on this site, how would old Melvin be any better in that regard?
I hope we trade back if Ingram is the only option available. Pickup Fleener or Hightower in the 20’s somewhere. Also would like Shea McClellin or Lavonte David over Zach Brown
Ideal: Draft Upshaw, Coples, or Trent Richardson
If that doesn’t happen: Trade back as early as 14 and as late as 22
If successfully traded back into the 14-18 range: Select Kuechly or Ingram
If successfully traded back into the 19-22 range: Select Martin or reach a bit and select Curry or Hightower
R2-4:
– If we get a pass rusher, select a LB in rounds 2/4 and a back in round 3
– If we get a running back, select 2 pass rushers and an LB based on the flow of the board
– If we get a LB, select pass rushers in rounds 2/3 and an RB in round 4
What can Zach Brown do that Malcom Smith cannot? Aren’t they both basically smallish, ultra athletic weak side LBs who are good in coverage? I am genuinely asking this question. Does Brown project as a much better player than Malcom Smith?
Zach Brown is a little taller and bigger but this is a good question from Wes.
With Upshaw and Coples off the board, either trade down and go draft Dont’a Hightower or just draft Fletcher Cox at #12 with the purpose of having him play DE. He can do it well from the tape I have seen. Remember he is just a true Jr. and is a big time stud in the SEC. Ingraham was a nobody as a Jr.
In the 2nd if the draft fell this way, my preference would be Nick Perry or Shea McClellin. Ingraham and Brown dont get me excited…Rob you know more than I ever will but mocks are fun to play with when looking at who is available at your pick. Three weeks and 1 day, tick tick tick…
Forgot to mention your Turbin pick, that would be great. That dude has HUGE arms!!!
I would be happy if this scenario came to fruition on draft day. I may be in the minority but I believe Ingram has a special ability to create pressure and make splash plays. He may not be Aldon Smith (physically) but you gotta love the idea of a guy being able to line up at DE, 3-Tech and WILL. He is a playmaker and someone who would not asked to be the focal point of a defense (at least initially).
Zach Brown in round 2 would be a good value. He has the athleticism to play with most TE and RB in space.
KJ Wright’s versatility has really allowed the Hawks to consider multiple ways to field the LB position.
Rob, could Nick Perry LB/DE or Shea McClellin LB/DE play the elephant if we cant get Upshaw?
Dontari Poe is going to be a disapointment…If any GM drafts him in the first round, they should be fired. Work out warrior with zero ability on his tapes to dominate, 1 sack the entire season against poor teams poor competition.
If Perry is still sitting there when the Seahawks pick in round two, then I believe they take him regardless of who they selected in round one. Perry is a pure Leo and too good to pass up. …I do believe the Seahawks will trade down to later in round one. A number of teams seem desperate for one of the top WRs or OLs, all of whom will be gone by mid round one. There are 5 potential pass-rushing Leos who are ranked by the various scouting services as about even: Mercilus, Curry, Jones, Branch and Perry. Who knows how Pete and John rank them, but with 5 guys so even, trade down knowing you will land one of them, and get that extra pick in round two or three and add another starter at LB, or grab Cousins/Osweiler. I love Turbin in round three. Rob, I would be interested in what Mike LB prospects you like if the Seahawks miss on Kuechly, Kendricks and Wagner.
Stuart – I prefer both for the Clemons role, with McClellin ranked higher. I think really for the role we’ve highlighted in R1 the options are fairly limited to Upshaw or Ingram. Other pass rushers would take on a more specialist role I think… ala Aldon Smith.
James – If the Seahawks miss out on the top MIKE’s (I actually think in this defense Brown could play there too) then I move Wright inside. There’s not a ton of obvious depth beyond R3. I like Sean Spence a lot, I have some doubts if he can play the MIKE though.
I would’t mind it falling this way, but would be happier if we got Coples in the 1st.
So far as LB goes: I spoke with Jameson Konz not to long ago, (remember him? Athletic freak, 7th round, etc.) Surprize, Jameson is a linebacker now! He seems to think he is the Hawks secret weapon at LB. Could be, I hope so, he’s got the athletic gifts, but is unproven. Most people either forgot about him or don’t know he is now a linebacker. I bet Uncle Pete does and is willing to give him a shot.
I get what you are doing projecting these picks, but man, those first two have big time bust potential. Don’t think I could pass on Nick Perry if he is there in the 2nd.
I do really like Turbin, is Polk still on the board when you gave the Hawks Turbin?
Darnell – I’m going to say yes this time… but I like Polk. I just think they’ll target a different type of back if available.
Ingram makes me a bit uneasy as well, with his short arms, and the aforementioned questions about his ability to diagnose and react to plays. Assuming the board shakes down this way – with Coples and Upshaw off the board – why not just take Hightower at 12? He seems to check all of the boxes; he can play a DE/LB hybrid, and he certainly has the skills as a pass rusher. Besides, every draft seems to have a player who rises up the board unexpectedly in the final week; Tyson Jackson and Tyson Alualu come to mind. Hightower seems to be a player that everyone likes, but who everyone assumes is going to be available in the 20s. Is there something I’m missing.
Also, I’m aware that Ingram has supporters in the Seahawk war room, so I could easily see this happening. But I am curious to get your reaction to Hightower, Rob. Thanks.
Wow Rob – you passed on Perry twice? Burn!!! Not to worry – no one rads Upshaw that high so he will be available. I agree with others that if Perry is available in the second we should double up. After all – you have been telling us this is our most important need – and PC has been able to find lb in later rounds.
My perfect rounds, Coples, Kendricks, and Polk or Bernard .
I’m seeing on a lot of other draft sites how Upshaw’s “stock is tumbling” due to this apparent weak performance at the combine and relative lack of elite athleticism. What do you feel the chances are Seattle trades down in the draft with the hope of Upshaw falling to them? Or do you feel Seattle’s chance of trading down is completely dependent on who of the “Big 3” are left?
Mark – I’m a Hightower fan. I suspect he’ll go on to have a great career. Personally, I think his best fit is in the 4-3 as an orthodox OLB. The role Seattle will probably draft for is more attack minded, and I don’t think he’s the coverage type maybe they’re looking for at LB. I think it’s one of those akward situations where maybe #12 is too high, but he won’t be there at #43. Just a tough football player. Not spectacular, just really solid.
Alaska – I’m not a big Perry fan. In fact, I think he’s one of the most overrated players in this draft. I’m not sure Pete will see this former Trojan as a must have.
Drew – if Seattle trades down it’ll be because their main guys are off the board (I think that’s very unlikely) or because a team offers a bumper deal that includes 2013 compensation. You’d have to look at a deal such as a high R2… possibly a 3rd and next year’s first. That would take some doing, which makes a move unlikely. Upshaw’s stock won’t have changed much IMO. Those who liked him before still will do, those who didn’t are also unchanged.
Rob, I am curious as to where u think Bruce Irvin might go and if you think Hawks have any interest and how he could be used.
I highly doubt any prospect is “shooting up draft boards” or “tumbling” right now. I’ve read a few quotes from GMs that made statements along the lines of “your evaluations/draft grades are most accurate in Dec/Jan.” Meaning they are basing judgment strictly on film.
The thing I respect most about Rob’s work is that there are no drastic changes based on a guy working out in shorts and a t shirt. It’s based on tape. I have a hard time believing that any GM makes a drastic change based on the underwear olympics or some random tweet from the media.
Are the Hawks going into this draft with the future of Clemons in mind? 31 and a free agent after next year. Is it possible they will draft his future replacement? I can see either JAX or CAR going with Floyd to help their young QB’s, which would free up a pass rush selection. I LOVE Turbin in the 3rd round. I would prefer him over any other RB in the draft. I could see a scenario where he plays part time fullback…so many options for Flynn.
After they address the front 7, which area do you think they will target first…secondary or the OL??
I am going back to what I asked about in another blog. All the running backs seem capable – which ones can hold onto the ball when the defense rips at it? Who fumbles most often?
I think that PC sees the Leo as a position that is “system” and takes a skillset combination that may not fit other systems and therefore able to be fould later in the draft…but who knows what PC thinks except for himself. PC and the Leo sees like Shannahan and running backs. Leo depth after our 3rd rounder barring trades.
Sorry, “found” and “seems”
I’ve grown to like Ingram more and more everytime I see some game tape of his. Though I’m in the Upshaw bandwagon, Ingram is like a “1B” type of pick and still can’t go wrong. His versatility is pretty intriguing, I can see him drop back in the flat and pick one off for a pick6 play. I just hope he’s not like a Derrick Harvey mold…
If Zach Brown is there at our 2nd round pick, I’d be more than thrilled than our 1st round pick. I’d take him over Luke Kuechly any day.
Dig the Turbin pick in 3rd, though my homerism wants Polk, at least he can catch in the backfield…
Rob,
Interesting quote from Tony Pauline tonight at his draft insider website:
“What will the Seattle Seahawks do? Separate sources told me today the team hopes to move out of the 12th slot and trade into the later portion of round one, where they will then draft linebacker Donta Hightower. If they can’t move the pick they are seriously considering Hightower’s teammate, safety Mark Barron, at that slot and Kam Chancellor would then move to outside linebacker.”
Have you talk to your source lately? Did he say anything similar?
Wow, I can’t believe how many here prefer upshaw over ingram. For me its a no brainer, I would love ingrsm, no contest between him and upshaw. Although I like couples better than both. Turbin and polk I like as RBs better than any except trent richerdson. Not sure why so many rank the other RB so high. Turbin is perfect for the hawks.
Patrick
I would think that could be a direction. However, I don’t think anyone would have told a person that much specifics. If we are going to take Hightower, we wont tell everyone so that they can trade up in front of us after we have traded into his value range.
Jon,
I think the trade-down part could be genuine. Agree that the Hightower part could just be smokescreen, and they are actually targeting another player.
This would be about the worse case scenario for the Seahawks. I think Melvin Ingram will be a major BUST because he can’t get off a block to save his life – in college.
I would much rather draft an OL or like DeCastro, or a CB like Stephen Gilmore, even Malcom Floyd over Ingram and risk waiting to take a DE in the second like Aldre Branch or Nick Perry because I don’t think Ingram will be in the league very long.
exactly my thoughts on the trade/hightower concept Patrick.
I spent some time looking at recent trades in the first round. It seems that after around the 10th pick teams agree to trade that is near even value as far as draft chart points so if this were to be the case I could certainly see a trade to the early 20s earn us a 2nd round selection. EX. #12 is worth 1200 and #21 800 + #52 380 = 1180. There are many examples in the last 4 or 5 years that show relatively even trade value.
Hi Rob,
Another question about Bruce Irvin, what do you think the prospects of him developing more of a complete game as a WLB are?
He has got the athleticism, speed, and I see a lot of strength as well (could be just me). I see a lot of Von Miller in him. Could he learn to play good coverage as well be a solid run defender?
Kipper mocked us ronnell Lewis in the 2nd round I don’t think he has been discussed much here, anyone got info on him?
I surely hope this is a worst case scenario. Ingram’s tiny arms will be the death of him in the pros.
With Wagner and Kendricks gone, Brown feels like a serious reach. He seems to me as the ultimate underwear athlete.
It sure seems that with all of these picks in the first couple of rounds, the UNC defense should have been something special.
Turbin will be a sleeper pick. I will imagine that he gets all of his quickness and acceleration back by the start of the season. His knee injury looks fully healed (I’m a believer in at least 18-24 months from ACL injury and you are back) and if he gets paired in the backfield with Lynch watch out, defenses will be spitting out teeth by the fourth quarter.
I just have a hard time seeing Ingram as being the choice in round 1 given what we understand what we desire from our D line. Short in height and arm length just both seem an odd mix for the size we apparently covet.
In the event the draft falls this way, the ability to move down would be limited. You might be able to target Cleveland at 22, or NE at 27. Cleveland may prefer Floyd enough over Wright to make that move. Similarly, NE is known to be keenly interested in upgrading at CB. Moving to 11 would give them the choice of either Kirkpatrick or Gilmore. The latter would seem the logical player they’d covet.
Failing that, I would expect Seattle to make a surprise pick rather than take an Ingram. He just doesn’t appear to be a match physically for what we have shown to prefer. Not versatile. Not big.
Even last year, Carpenter was a big, versatile mild surprise pick. We did that in almost every round too. They don’t seem to be a front office that is a slave to the conventional pick. Taking a DE by it’s nature, is a situational player for 2012 as he won’t supplant Bryant or Clemons in the base defense. Beyond 2012, I’d expect if we take a DE, it’ll be with an eye to replacing Clemons. Ingram doesn’t look in any way like a Leo end.
An OLB with size would seem to be a better fit. Someone in 2012 who can play the Sam/9 technique outside Bryant. And big/fast enough to eventually replace Clemons.
I think we’re going in looking at pass rush, but not necessarily JUST a DE. OLB/future Leo prospect would seem to be more coveted if the Upshaw (maybe Coples too) option is unavailable. If we think we’d pass on Coples — which I agree would be a strong possibility — then I don’t see us taking an Ingram even if the draft unfolds like above.
1st time poster, love the site and all the hard work here.
I understand the constraints you are placing on yourself, trying to make other team’s picks realistic and projecting Pete and John’s priorities into the Hawks pick, and respect your dilligence Rob. I actually respect that you are mocking guys to us that you don’t like. That said, I don’t like Ingram or Brown either.
This is the first year I have watched clips on more than a player or two and Ingram and Brown are two guys I don’t think have much to offer. I personally like Upshaw, Glenn, or Rieff in the first.
I like McClellin, Wagner, or Kendricks in the second.
With our 2nd pick I’d rather take Mark Barron (assuming he’s still on the board) and move Kam to WLB. I’d rather have a LB/safety combo of Kam/Barron than Brown/Kam. Brown’s a special athlete…so is Aaron Curry! Rob, if the Hawks are going to stack the line (which you seem to believe is going to be the case if we draft a guy like Upshaw), and therefore really put a premium on coverage from their LB’s, do you see them potentially moving Kam to linebacker?
Kam is pretty great at SS but I think size wise and his experience at the “deathbacker” role could help him in this transition were true, he has obvious coverage skills as well as the ability to play the run…who knows maybe the Hawks do get Barron, and unveil some bizarro three-safety looks, or more pressure from blitzes.
Rob,
above about RB’s you said “target a different type of back,” were you meaning different from Lynch, different form polk, or this time you are mocking them Turbin but they really need a different type ala Lamichael James?
BTW I like the Turbin pick as a concellation to Doug Martin, though a true change of pace back could be nice, I do think we need some insurance against the contact driven Lynch, plus I’ve long been sick since the Holmgren days of the smallish RB that comes in on a fruitless attempt to convert 3rd and Long, and am a big believer of an RB that can more or less keep the opposing defense having to operate on the idea that the play book is still open and not “well here comes the other guy….we know what they are going to do here,”
First and foremost, can I get a solid “Happy B-Day” to me! ya! 56 years young and not dead yet!
OK, now back to reality.
I think when the real world hits home we will find that Coples will be long gone, and probably either Ingram or Upshaw will be gone too. I think Rob has basically just mixed in Ingram instead of Upshaw. So in reality, this is still the same pick as always, just with a different name. It’s the position, not so much the player.
So, will Pete/John pick the position over value? That’s what we will see come draft day. Will it be that position no matter what, and no matter who is gone? I believe Robert feels this way.
I for some reason still feel that the boys go with the BPA , as long as it fits into one of the preferred positions. It could be:
RB) Richardson
OL) DeCastro
DE) Coples (Upshaw/Ingram)
WR) Blackmon/Floyd
OR, the choice I keep thinking could happen, is that the Hawks trade UP, to grab Coples. Guys like him don’t fall off trees, and his potential is off the charts. If Mario was worth 95 mil, don’t you think Coples is worth trading up for? It would only be 5 or 6 spots up.. I’m just sayin…
Doug,
Happy Birthday!
I hope the Seahawks don’t have to trade up to get Coples, I have a feeling that he might be a draft day fall, at least to us. We all know the front office loves picks and I can’t see them losing picks to move up, but out of the three I think Coples if he wants it could be the best pick. I’ve been on the Upshaw bandwagon primarily because I assume Coples will be gone by our pick. I just watched a video on NFL network about riskiest picks and the pundits called out both Upshaw and Ingram due to their relative lack of speed in regards to size…granted I don’t think Casserly necessarily knows what he is talking about normally but he did make good points about both players.
I’m still of the midset that the Seahawks could be the team to do something strange this year, like move down, pick up Fleener and go after pass rush in other rounds, if Coples is gone, sicn to me there is not a slear cut “elite” talent as far as pass rush after him. Guys that can be good to great, but no one who combines the speed, size, and skills in one package at the 12th pick….for that position
More options? Let’s say Zach Brown and Lavonte David are the 2 targets at #43 but both are taken right in front of us. Could happen! Could Bruce Irvin grow into a coverage LBer? He has great length and speed. Was not asked to drop back into coverage much in college but maybe can be coached up into that? And obviously would more than fit the bill to bring blitzing pressure when asked to do so! Not to mention if he can’t cover as well as they wanted him to at LBer, he would always be an excellent back up/successor to Clemons at LEO.
I like the Kam to LB idea. He has the size to play LB, is good in coverage and against the run, and would improve the speed at LB. However, I don’t think Barron gives you anything at SS that Kam doesn’t. I would rather grab a speedy linebacker early. My only question about Kam is how well can he rush the passer? Barron would be a big overdraft at 12. If we would overdraft Barron at 12, why not overdraft someone like Doug Martin at 12?
If the situation in this mock comes up I would hope to trade back, and pick up someone like Doug Martin or Dont’a Hightower. To go for the Kam to LB idea, you could draft Brandon Hardin at CB/SS in Round 3; that dude just blew up his pro-day, and was well regarded before injury. They still need a burner at LB even with that idea. I have my doubts that Konz or Smith is the answer, but there should still be someone available in Rd. 2 to fill the speed LB role.
Rob, you should mock Martin to us one of these times just to consider what we would do afterwards and what effects it might have on the draft. I’d certainly love to see that mock.
barron probably doesn’t give us anything that kam doesn’t already, but if you were to go Kam to LB…then you would need someone to fill his shoes. It does seem that we could find a LB wiht speed and Coverage skills though.
Great post, as always. Love the work you put into it.
Since I’m cranky, have to write for a living, and old enough to remember Jim Zorn as a star quarterback, please keep in mind the difference between “complement” and “compliment”. (You always use the latter, even when you mean the former.) Complement, with an e, means to accompany, to add to, to complete. Complementing Clemons means to add to his skills. Compliment with an i, and you mean to say nice things about. “Gee, that dress makes your eyes look pretty.” Someone to compliment Chris Clemons means to tell him, “Chris, you’re a great rusher.”
I say this only because you obviously have pride in your writing and do not suffer the grammatical errors that plague most blogs.
lol, I think he wasn’t giving you a complement Rob…
Thanks everybody, I just got my morning Seahawk fix on!!! Love this site and every poster here brings something unique to the table. Happy Birthday Doug. Welcome David from Bellingham.
Turbin at 3 sounds better to me this morning than yesterday. And yesterday I liked the idea. Pointing out that he will be all the way back from his ACL injury gets me excited about the prospects of Beast Mode 2. Finally I am off my man-crush on Doug Martin in the 2nd round…
This Mark Barron talk is intriguing, although most likely a rumor. Kam could play a “rover” role which he did in college. Barron known as an elite run defender whilst being very good in the passing game. ET has elite cover skills. Like I said, most likely a rumor, but it could “work” in a weird way because all 3 guys have a unique skill set and all known as “plus instincts” type of players. I am very intrigued. If anybody is not worry about being conventional, it would be Pete.
To clarify, not buying the Barron talk, but I bet PC could make it work.
Rob is exploring every possible scenario to generate discussion, which I apprecitate as we all surely do. Although as others have said, this is nearly a worst case scenario where we don’t draft an impact player until the 3rd round, and even HE won’t be the best player on the team at his position. Ingram and Brown would give us ‘the draft of the year’ to the pundits, but as we have all discussed, the pundits are clueless. I’d rather get two players would actually impact play on the field. None of us know what will happen, but certainly it’s got to go better than this. This would be a terrible blow to Seattle, and we’d really have to hope for some studs to pop out of the woodwork in the late rounds. Yikes
I have posed the Kam to OLB idea before only because I saw him listed at 250#s somewhere and the derth of speed at LB. I would not expect them to go with Barron at 12 and move Kam because of it. I could see them get Iloka and make it a possible move to explore in a later round.
The first round guy is likely going to be more in the conventional mode along the lines that have been widely discussed. Be it Upshaw or Ingram or a move down Hightower scheme, I expect the move to be more base D related. You could argue that Upshaw is not base D but Petes “base D” is really not defineable in conventional terms. Along that thought I have to say Mercilus poses a interesting question.
Since the one-year wonder label has been put on him lets see why. His base position was DE and all of his accolades came about by moving him “around” in a hybrid fashion. Sacks and other stats ensued. How is that not right up Petes alley? I’d sure rather draft a guy that got moved around and got results than plan on moving a guy around in anticipation of leading results.
I just realized how much of a game, the draft is for our FO. Talking about trading out or drafting Barron makes me think that they are using Barron as the trade bait. I read on the same sight that had this Barron/Hightower/trade back info and it spoke of several teams that are hoping that Barron makes it to their pick in the mid to upper teens. The way that the hawks are saying things would go down is a trade down before the selection of Barron. Meaning that everyone knows that if they want to trade up for Barron in order to get him, it will have to be with the Seahawks. No team would trade in front of Seattle because the trade would cost more than trading with the Hawks who want to trade down so they do not have to initiate discussion. The hawks have already offered the opening but would draft Barron if no offer is valid and available. With up to three teams within 6 picks of the Hawks hoping to get Barron (according to this source, but not on the same topic of the Hawks trading back) we could be opening the table for negotiation based on him flying up draft boards, and we can back up our ability to draft him, by sliding Kam to LB. In this game our FO has made it to the point that they have all the weapons working for them accept a desire to move down.
So tony Pauline who rob used earlier as a credible source is saying the hawks want to trade down and get Hightower if they can’t trade down they will take Barron at 12 make kam their wlb. Thoughts?
They already are talking to Iloka.
Ingram has 21 sacks but can’t force a fumble. = limited ball skills. Our defense is pretty good, what Seattle really needs is a “Touchdown Maker” (Carrol’s quote) at WR, someone to stretch the field, help open the run. Can’t count on Rice, aka: Mister Glass
Ingram may not possess ideal physical measurables but it is laughable that someone thinks he has limited ball skills. The guy had 3 TDs last season (fumble recoveries, fake punt for 68+ yard score). Plays in the toughest conference in the nation. He was definitely a playmaker in college. We will see if that translates to the pro game or not.
In 4 years and 111 tackles he had ONE forced fumble: ( http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/melvin-ingram-1.html ) If you get to the QB 21.5 times and only force one fumble on a somewhat defenseless QB, that says something about you nose for the ball.
I think that the Kam to LB idea (although interesting) is just a ploy to get the Bengals to trade up from 21. The Bengals have shown interest in both DeCastro and Barron so a trade would make sense. I like the idea of Hightower for a couple reasons. He just seems to fit (speed, size, strength, versatility) and we would likely obtain a mid-2nd round pick. Hightower would add pass rush and we would add LB speed in Rd 2 with Zach Brown. With our next second we would have plenty of options at RB, TE, or a pass rusher like Vinny Curry could fall. I really like the idea of Hightower and hope it works out.
Personally I think if we cannot pick-up Upshaw with our 12 pick, we should trade down to the 17-22 range and pick up Hightower. First off they both have incredible tape, they play in the hardest conference in college ball, and they were key cogs in becoming national champions. It’s hard to make any argument against not choosing one of these prospects, and PC will find a way to utilize either one of them considering there respective positions are our 2 biggest needs. Not to mention we could maybe pick up an extra second or third round pick if we trade down for Hightower. Seems logical to me.
Bill,
I was not aware of that statistic with Ingram. Yeah, I guess that would raise some major red flags. Mercilus had 9 FF alone this year!
Hey rob what do you think if our first four went like this
1st- trade down for Hightower.
2nd- ronnell Lewis
3rd- Robert turbin
4th- Greg child’s
Thoughts? Comments?
The Pauline blog posting, as reported on fieldgulls, that the Seahawks hope to trade down and select Hightower, or go with Barron and move Kam to Will LB, is bizarre to say the least. First, if true, the Seahawks have a very serious problem if someone who knows the plans of John and Pete is leaking to the press. But, this smells much more like a deliberate plant by the Seahawks to manipulate the draft; or a reporter relying on questionable sources. This draft plan does not fit at all with how John & Pete have operated the first two drafts, and instead reflects an almost reckless go-for-broke strategy in moving a pro bowl safety to another position he does not want to play. A Will LB who could play as well as Kam could be found in round two, so what-the-heck? An elephant hybrid OLB/DE, or a Leo, or Kuechly, in round one, and best available athlete at OLB/ILB/Leo in round two, makes much more sense.
if you want the small version of aaron curry in round 2 then i guess you go with zach brown.
I’m getting sick of every talking head having us picking Keuchly, almost all of em, or DeCastro. I would actually be happy with eith of them, but I’m sick of copycat picks from people who get paid to make mocks. It;s lazy and weak.
I mean everybody that really knows whats going on knows they will trade up for Coples… sheesh
Rob,
What’s your opinion concerning the Pauline Rumor of interest in Barron? I watched some tape and it surprises the heck out of me that he is even considered a first rounder.
Also, I’m getting ahead of myself now, what do you think of Marcus Lattimore (RB, S. carolina) for next year? I think he would be the perfect guy to come in and eventually take over for Lynch, in the same way Alexander came in for a year to back up Ricky Watters before becoming the main back. I know there might be a certain QB that is already written on the Hawks 2013 ist round pick card… So I wonder if Lattimore might be a 2nd rounder or later?
I don’t know about this Kam to LB business, but after reading up on the Deathbacker roll, and of course the Giants with three Safety sets, perhaps there is something there to this move down business and get Hightower, so you can deploy a 4 man front, 2 LB’s two corners, and three Safeties with Kam closer to the box to stop RB’s or two TE sets, by playing the one in and having two safeties in a normal set to cover say the Graham’s, Gronks, V-davis’ of the world…..Plus hightower is no slouch in the coverage department, and can rush the passer a bit…..Scheme wise for a passing league it doesn’t seem half bad, as long as your front four can provide some pressure and stop the run, which they can already do half of the job…now to fix to the rush the passer part
Andy – I think Irvin will go in rounds 3-5. Hard to judge how teams view him. Superb speed, love the guy overall. But a specialist only at the next level.
Patrick & everyone else asking about Tony Pauline’s recent update – I’ve addressed this in a blog post just completed. I’ll refer to that for my response.
Rory – I like Bruce, but I think he’ll always be a third down specialist. I don’t see a permanent role in the NFL for three downs.
Nolan – search the archive for ‘Ronnell Lewis’ (check the menu bar). I did a piece on Lewis recently including game tape.
Attyla – I’m not a fan of Ingram and I’m not saying he’ll definitely be the pick – but he’s on the radar. And for that reason, he must fit.
Ben2 – I think it’s very unlikely given that Kam’s not necessarily going to be a great coverage LB just because he played safety. I think what’s more likely is they keep Chancellor in his pro-bowl position and draft a solid coverage LB.
Peter – I meant different to Polk. I think Seattle wants a back comparable to Lynch… size, power, an attack guy. Someone who won’t let up when Lynch is spelled.
Doug – Happy Birthday man. Seattle won’t trade up, and they won’t draft a receiver in R1. What I’m hearing.
Kyle – my bad. I’ll make sure to complement my writing with the correct ‘complement’ in future. And thanks for the compliment about the blog.
jlkresse7 – I’d like it more if the team received some form of compensation for trading down. What extra picks did we get?
AJ – Curry and Brown very different players. I hope as Seattle fans we don’t limit ourselves to comparing every non-Kuechly type of quarterback to Curry.
williambryan – I like Lattimore a lot. Not as much as Trent Richardson, but ML is a great talent. There will be some quality in next year’s draft. His stock will be determined by how he recovers from a serious knee injury. Let’s hope he’s back and performing in 2012.
Rob, I get a different Mock Draft when I click on the Mock Draft link. I suggest that the link should go to your most recent mock draft.
Found some Senior Bowl Drill footage of Coples, Ingram, and Upshaw
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=um1N9sDqXJU&feature=relmfu
rob- when i see zach brown he doesnt know where hes going half the time doesnt wrap up well looks like he uses all that speed and hopes running into the ball carrier works. i like kuechly but dont think we absolutely need him. i would of loved to keep the heater. but i do value instincts more then speed when it comes to linebackers. zach brown falls into the aaron curry, ernie sims, and thomas howard mode. speed isnt everything. so much better value in the middle rounds at linebacker imo. but we agree to disagree.
In order to make an intelligent guess as to the Seahawks draft pick at #12, you first have to determine the scenario presented by Rob: that the Seahawks are planning to change their defense to the “elephant” as run by Pete at USC. Rob has a source that indicates this is afoot, and this change completely alters the Seahawks draft plans. Rob has two long articles on this, but suffice it to say that the elephant is essentially a 5-man line, offering heightened pass rush potential, with increased risk that the line must stop the run because the other two LB’s have to provide broader pass coverage.
– If the Seahawks are switching to the elephant, the pick most likely will be Upshaw or Ingram, as Rob projects. Ingram is an amazing athlete for his size, plays at full motor, and is the better pass rusher. Upshaw is the better run defender but with strong pass rush skills. He plays with a nasty attitude and has a talent for knocking the QB out of the game with brutal but legal hits. Most mocks have Ingram being selected before #12. There are further implications in switching to the elephant: the other two LB’s besides the elephant must have exceptional cover skills, and be able to operate at times as de-facto safeties. Therefore, both the Mike and the Will LB in an elephant would have different skill sets than in the current Seahawks defense. In other words, by switching to elephant, the Seahawks will need 3 new LB’s (hints of this when Heater was let go?). KJ Wright would have to switch from Sam LB to Mike LB, to make way for the new elephant, and it is unclear if he has the cover skills to play that position in the elephant. It is questionable that new addition Barrett Ruud can play Mike in the elephant. In addition, a new Will LB, with top pass defense skills, would be urgently needed. Additional help at the Leo would have to slide down the board.
– If the Seahawks are not switching to the elephant, but are staying with the same defense as last year, the needs are significantly different. Neither Upshaw nor Ingram are good fits for last year’s Seahawks D. Then we can assume that the key targets would be a Leo, a Mike LB, and a Will LB. If this is the scenario you are working from, your mock draft would be Perry/Kendricks; Kuechly/Branch; Coples/Brown, etc. In either scenario, the later rounds will probably yield a RB, QB, TE and/or LB and OL depth.