Yesterday I went into into the offensive line data and tomorrow I’ll focus on the quarterbacks. Today it’s the turn of the defensive linemen…
I think the Seahawks are far more likely to make a significant D-line addition in the draft, rather than in the free agent market. However, it’s worth looking at what’s out there and having the data to hand ahead of free agency.
Pass rush win percentages (free agency)
EDGE
Baron Browning — 16.4%
Khalil Mack — 14.5%
Josh Sweat — 14%
Chase Young — 13.7%
K’Lavon Chaisson — 12.8%
Anthony Nelson — 11.5%
Dante Fowler Jr — 10.1%
Carl Lawson — 9.4%
Joseph Ossai — 9.3%
Joe Tryon-Shoyinka — 8.9%
Azeez Ojulari — 8.4%
Haason Reddick — 7.6%
Patrick Jones — 6.7%
Matt Judon — 6.2%
Emmanuel Ogbah — 5.4%
Inside/out
Milton Williams — 17.6%
Osa Odighizuwa — 15.1%
Dayo Odeyingbo — 12.6%
Levi Onwuzurike — 11.9%
LJ Collier — 7.8%
Defensive tackle
Teair Tart — 11.4%
Calais Campbell — 10.8%
Javon Kinlaw — 10.5%
BJ Hill — 8.4%
Poona Ford — 7.7%
DJ Jones — 6.9%
Bobby Brown III — 4.1%
As you can see, this isn’t a loaded group. Milton Williams will get a big pay-day. He has a terrific win percentage, he’s at a great age (25) and a strong Super Bowl performance will help his cause. Osa Odighizuwa could also get a handsome contract. Both players excelled in terms of pressures forced (Odighizuwa 60, Williams 54) ranking 24th and 35th respectively among all defensive linemen (EDGE, DE or DT).
In terms of win-percentage, there’s no impact edge rusher or game-changing defensive tackle (and you wouldn’t expect there to be — those players rarely reach free agency). The one player who might interest some teams is Chase Young. He’s had a strange career, blighted by injuries and concerns about his effort/attitude. The feeling was Washington couldn’t wait to move on and the 49ers didn’t re-sign him either.
He had a seven-sack season for the Saints with a strong 66 pressures (joint most among free agents with Josh Sweat). His win-percentage of 13.7% is decent, not great. He’s only 25 though and Trey Hendrickson was a bit of a late bloomer — turning it on in his final season in New Orleans with 13.5 sacks. Henderson’s win-percentage was only 12.1% and he had 50 pressures. Young still has a chance to realise his potential but I’m not convinced it’ll be in Seattle.
For comparisons sake, Myles Garrett had a 2024 win-percentage of 23.1%, Micah Parsons’ was 20.2%, Hendrickson and Nick Bosa were at 20%, Jared Verse (19.7%) and Chop Robinson (18.8%) were both high-impact rookies and Chris Jones (18.8%) had another productive year.
The Seahawks do not currently have a player of this caliber on their line, as you can see from their win-percentage scores:
Dre’Mont Jones — 12.9%
Leonard Williams — 11.6%
Boye Mafe — 11%
Jarran Reed — 10.7%
Byron Murphy — 10%
Derick Hall — 8.5%
This will probably not change through free agency — but it’s why they need to be mindful of any big trade opportunities that might emerge. If they can acquire a star, they should try to make that happen. Adding an elite pass-rusher should turn this unit into one of the best in the NFL.
Mafe and Hall contributed 47 and 45 pressures respectively in 2024. Williams generated 55, Reed 48 and Jones 45. The Seahawks spread their pressures out, which might be a theme under Mike Macdonald. They ranked seventh for pressures, so I’d suggest two things:
1. Acquiring an expensive defensive lineman at this stage should only be limited to a truly elite player, such as a big splash for a Garrett/Parsons/Crosby type if made available, not for someone who can simply operate within a system that clearly does a good job sharing the wealth.
2. There’s nothing wrong with adding a value veteran if the market comes to you but in terms of pass-rush and pressuring opponents — they might be better off waiting until the second round of the draft. As we’ll discuss later, pick #50 is in a sweet-spot for D-liners.
It’s interesting that Dre’Mont Jones’ pass-rush production is similar to a lot of the alternatives on the market. His win-percentage also led the Seahawks in 2024, above even Leonard Williams.
Pressure comparisons
Milton Williams — 54
Khalil Mack — 52
Levi Onwuzurike — 47
Dre’Mont Jones — 45
Dayo Odeyingbo — 42
Win-percentage comparisons
Josh Sweat — 14%
Chase Young — 13.7%
Dre’Mont Jones — 12.9%
Dayo Odeyingbo — 12.6%
Levi Onwuzurike — 11.9%
This might mean the Seahawks can flip him for a pick (it won’t be much) rather than outright cutting him. Or, they might decide that it’s better to try and get him to take a pay-cut rather than absorb a $14m dead-hit to let him play somewhere else. This is easily achievable according to Curtis Allen, because none of his $16m salary this year is guaranteed.
That said, John Schneider’s answer last week on Seattle Sports about the danger of ‘paying for the wrong players’ might’ve been a reference to Jones, who has underwhelmed as a big free agent signing. It’ll be an expensive parting if they outright move on, with an $11.6m saving alongside the $14m dead-cap hit.
Run defense
Mike Macdonald often speaks about creating a run-wall. The Seahawks ranked 16th in opponent rushing yards per game in 2024 but in their final three games they ranked sixth. It did feel as if they made a turn during the season, once they’d swapped out their linebackers.
Bringing back Ernest Jones is necessary to maintain their performance but they can also improve on the defensive line.
Leonard Williams (10.7%), Byron Murphy (7.6%) and Jarran Reed (7.5%) all have solid percentages for plays they are responsible for stopping the run. Dre’Mont Jones (4.1%) struggled in this area and Johnathan Hankins (7.1%) was OK — but you’d expect more from a pure run-stuffer like Hankins.
There are four key interior players they could add to upgrade their run defense. Calais Campbell led the NFL with a remarkable 15.9% run-stop responsibility percentage in 2024. That he’s still performing at this level at 38-years-old is highly impressive. It’s a crushing disappointment that he’ll likely never play in Seattle, possibly due to a preference not to play for another NFC West team. He would be a great signing for Seattle’s run-D though and if there’s any chance at all of prolonging his career one more year, they should ask the question.
30-year-old DJ Jones doesn’t have the typical tools of a quality run defender due to his short arms but his lack of height enables him to win with leverage to the tune of an 11.3% run-stop responsibility percentage. Another former 49er — Sebastian Joseph-Day — had a 10.4% mark in 2024, with BJ Hill at 9.3%. These are the best options to elevate Seattle’s run defense from the interior.
None of the inside/out rushers excelled here. However, Minnesota’s edge rusher Patrick Jones had an incredibly impressive 13.8% run-stop responsibility percentage.
Pass rush win percentages (draft)
EDGE
Josaiah Stewart — 27.1%
Princely Umanmielen — 22.8%
James Pearce — 22.7%
Abdul Carter — 22.6%
Bradyn Swinson — 22.1%
David Walker — 21%
Ashton Gillotte — 20.9%
Mike Green — 20.1%
Donovan Ezeiruaku — 18.2%
Kaimon Rucker — 18.1%
Jack Sawyer — 17.7%
Nic Scourton — 17.4%
Jalon Walker — 17.2%
Barryn Sorrell — 13.6%
Kyle Kennard — 13.1%
JT Tuimoloau — 12.3%
Landon Jackson — 11.5%
Oluwafemi Oladejo — 10.5%
Davin Vann — 10.1%
Inside/Out
Aeneas Peebles — 17.7%
Jared Ivey — 16.8%
Jordan Burch — 15.7%
Sai’vion Jones — 15.1%
Darius Alexander — 12.8%
Shemar Stewart — 12.4%
Mykel Williams — 11%
Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins — 7.2%
Defensive tackle
Omarr Norman-Lott — 18.9%
Derrick Harmon — 17.6%
Rylie Mills — 14.3%
Mason Graham — 13.8%
TJ Sanders — 12.6%
Walter Nolen — 10.9%
Jordan Phillips — 10.5%
Ty Robinson — 10.4%
Deone Walker — 10.3%
Jamaree Caldwell — 9.6%
Joshua Farmer — 9.4%
Kenneth Grant — 9.4%
JJ Pegues — 9.3%
Alfred Collins — 7.3%
Junior Tafuna — 7.3%
Tyleik Williams — 7%
Cam Jackson — 6.8%
Shemar Turner — 6.2%
Yahya Black — 5.8%
Ty Hamilton — 4.9%
Pressures (draft)
EDGE
Abdul Carter — 66
Jack Sawyer — 64
Bradyn Swinson — 60
Donovan Ezeiruaku — 60
Mike Green — 59
Ashton Gillotte — 57
Princely Umanmielen — 55
James Pearce — 55
David Walker — 55
JT Tuimoloau — 51
Barryn Sorrell — 49
Kyle Kennard — 39
Josaiah Stewart — 37 (missed time)
Nic Scourton — 36
Landon Jackson — 35
Jalon Walker — 34 (hybrid)
Oluwafemi Oladejo — 33
Kaimon Rucker — 31 (missed time)
Davin Vann — 26
Inside/Out
Sai’vion Jones — 43
Jared Ivey — 40
Shemar Stewart — 39
Darius Alexander — 37
Aeneas Peebles — 37
Jordan Burch — 32
Mykel Williams — 26 (missed time)
Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins — 19
Defensive tackle
Derrick Harmon — 55
Ty Robinson — 42
Walter Nolen — 35
Mason Graham — 34
Rylie Mills — 34
TJ Sanders — 33
JJ Pegues — 31
Kenneth Grant — 27
Omarr Norman-Lott — 27
Joshua Farmer — 26
Jamaree Caldwell — 25
Deone Walker — 22
Tyleik Williams — 21
Shemar Turner — 21
Ty Hamilton — 19
Alfred Collins — 18
Cam Jackson — 16
Jordan Phillips — 16
Yahya Black — 13
Junior Tafuna — 13
LSU edge rusher Bradyn Swinson is being massively slept on. His 60 pressures in 2024 were second only to Abdul Carter (66) and Jack Sawyer (64). It’s worth noting that nobody had more pressures in the college football season. An incredible 21 of Sawyer’s pressures came in his four extra playoff games. He had 43 in the regular season. Carter recorded 10 pressures in two playoff games. In the regular season, he had 56 pressures. This really highlights just how productive Swinson was in 2024.
Jared Verse had only two more pressures (62) in his final year at Florida State, while TJ Watt and Maxx Crosby both had 57 in their last seasons of college football.
Boye Mafe had 42 pressures before entering the draft and a win-percentage of 15.8%. Derick Hall had 47 pressures and a win-percentage of 14%.
Swinson’s win-percentage of 22.1% is only 0.5% lower than Abdul Carter’s. I don’t think there’s a drop-off between the LSU rusher and the Green/Pearce/Ezeiruaku grouping. He’s so quick off the edge and once he bends the arc, his closing speed is frightening. He’s long and has shown the ability to keep his frame clean on contact and win with power. His effort and motor are impressive and he has the kind of character and personality that hints at star quality. Of all the edge rushers expected to be in range for the Seahawks, Swinson might be the one I’m most intrigued by. Testing is critical but at the moment he looks like a strong option at #50 to add an EDGE with a bit more juice than they currently have.
Then there’s his team-mate Sai’vion Jones. Difference-making inside/out rushers can be a game-changer. Among all of the players capable of playing inside/out, Jones has the most pressures (43). He’s a three-sport athlete (basketball, track & field, football) with great size (6-6, 280lbs) and good length (33.5 inch arms). He’s expected to run an estimated 4.70 forty. He has a lot of potential — with four more pressures than Shemar Stewart and an edge in win-percentage (15.1% vs 12.4%). He also scores higher defending the run (more on that in a bit). Jones might be a better second round option than the likes of Stewart are in round one.
Josaiah Stewart’s pass-rush win percentage of 27.1% clearly stands out. He’s one to monitor, given how beloved he is by Wink Martindale at Michigan (Mike Macdonald is a protege of Martindale’s). Injury limited his number of pressures collected but he wrecked the game against USC and flashed when he was on the field. Again, testing will be important given his lack of ideal height and length.
At defensive tackle, Ty Robinson (who I interviewed recently) had the second most pressures (42) at his position plus the second most sacks among defensive tackles in college football (seven). He has the aggressive playing style, quickness, relentless motor and driven attitude to be an excellent pro. I’m intrigued to see how quick (10-yard split) and explosive (vertical broad) he is and whether he runs a short shuttle at the combine.
Darius Alexander’s numbers are solid across the board. He stood out at the Senior Bowl and showed in flashes on tape at Toledo. It’s not an overreaction to say he gives off a ‘Chris Jones’ vibe. The chances are he won’t be Jones but seeing him beat Josh Conerly Jr off the edge at his favoured spot of left tackle was a sight to behold at 304lbs. Let’s see how he tests. Jones’ win-percentage (16.7%) and pressure numbers (49) in his final season at Mississippi State are far better than Alexander’s (12.8% and 37). Plus he came up against superior competition in the SEC. Alexander might not have elite potential but he has disruptive qualities.
Derrick Harmon and Omar Norman-Lott have terrific win-percentages as pass-rushers. However, their run-stopping responsibility (which we’ll talk about next) is comparatively very low. Teams will need to work out whether they are mostly one-dimensional role players, whether they can round into something more complete or whether the pass-rush production even translates to the NFL. Neither has a prototypical frame.
Rylie Mills is a dynamic athlete and he ramped up his production in 2024. He picked up an injury and missed most of Notre Dame’s playoff run. We’ll see if he’s healthy for the combine. If he is and he tests — he’ll be a name to remember who could rise. Having the third best win-percentage (14.3%) among defensive tackles certainly helps.
Aeneas Peebles’ 17.7% win percentage as an inside/out rusher is very appealing and he flashed at the Senior Bowl. However, he lacks length (6-0, 31 3/4 inch arms) for a player who is 289lbs. That could impact his stock.
Run stop percentage (responsible for the stop)
EDGE
Donovan Ezeiruaku — 10.1%
James Pearce — 10.1%
Mike Green — 9.4%
Landon Jackson — 9.3%
Oluwafemi Oladejo — 9.3%
David Walker — 9.2%
Jalon Walker — 8.7%
Princely Umanmielen — 8.6%
Kaimon Rucker — 8.5%
Josaiah Stewart — 8.3%
JT Tuimoloau — 7.8%
Abdul Carter — 7.6%
Nic Scourton — 7.3%
Ashton Gillotte — 6.9%
Bradyn Swinson — 5.8%
Davin Vann — 5.4%
Jack Sawyer — 5.1%
Barryn Sorrell — 5.1%
Kyle Kennard — 3.8%
Inside/out
Darius Alexander — 7.9%
Sai’vion Jones — 7.7%
Mykel Williams — 7.6%
Jared Ivey — 6.6%
Aeneas Peebles — 6.3%
Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins — 6.1%
Shemar Stewart — 5.5%
Jordan Burch — 2.9%
Defensive tackle
Mason Graham — 12%
Walter Nolen — 11.9%
Yahya Black — 9.3%
Cam Jackson — 9.3%
JJ Pegues — 8.9%
TJ Sanders — 8.8%
Ty Hamilton — 8.3%
Ty Robinson — 8.1%
Junior Tafuna — 8.1%
Shemar Turner — 7.9%
Kenneth Grant — 7.9%
Tyleik Williams — 7.8%
Jordan Phillips — 7.6%
Jamaree Caldwell — 7.5%
Alfred Collins — 7.4%
Derrick Harmon — 7.1%
Deone Walker — 6.6%
Omarr Norman-Lott — 6%
Rylie Mills — 5.3%
Joshua Farmer — 4.6%
Keep an eye on Donovan Ezeiruaku. On tape he has a better edge-rushing skill-set than most of the other big names. His run-defense responsibility of 10.1% was joint best along with (surprisingly) James Pearce at Tennessee. Testing will be key for him but he has a rounded game, long arms and he’s incredibly consistent. He might not be the Seahawks’ pick at #18 but he could go ahead of some of these other pass rushers. You can get him on the field in year one.
For those interested in Kenneth Grant, it’s worth noting that another big-bodied athlete in JJ Pegues has an almost identical pass-rush win-percentage (0.1% difference), he has more pressures (31 vs 27) and his run-stop responsibility percentage is considerably higher (8.9% vs 7.9%). Grant’s testing might blow Pegues out of the water at the combine, showing off his upside and developmental potential. There’s certainly enough buzz from draft media’s ‘in-the-know’ group to think Grant could be a very high pick once he tests at the combine.
I think his numbers as a pass-rusher and run-blocker, particularly playing next to Mason Graham, are underwhelming. He’s a great athlete at his size, yes, but you were always left wanting more on tape. I’m not sure how much to read into that but I did think there were snaps on tape where he could play with more violence. The athleticism and get-off are freaky but I wanted to see him play with a bit more aggression.
Lance Zierlein has Walter Nolen graded as the fifth best player in the draft currently on NFL.com. We know he’s quick and can rush the passer but his run-stop responsibility percentage is second best in the class at 11.9% — just 0.1% behind Mason Graham. He’s well ahead of the big nose tackles. This might be why he ends up going a fair bit higher than people realise. He clearly has a rounded game. Based on the tape, I’d suggest he’s only scratching the surface of his potential.
Final thoughts
Yesterday I noted how the Seahawks might be banking on a good offensive lineman lasting to #18. A challenging free agency market might leave the Seahawks relying on a top rookie to inject talent into their O-line.
At #50, this draft class is tailor-made to go D-line in round two. This is a really good area to target a defensive lineman. The following players are projected to slot into this part of the draft:
Sai’vion Jones (DE, LSU)
Josaiah Stewart (EDGE, Michigan)
Tyleik Williams (DT, Ohio State)
Landon Jackson (DE, Arkansas)
Alfred Collins (DT, Texas)
Darius Alexander (DT, Toledo)
Derrick Harmon (DT, Oregon)
TJ Sanders (DT, South Carolina)
Bradyn Swinson (EDGE, LSU)
Joshua Farmer (DT, Florida State)
Oluwafemi Oladejo (EDGE, UCLA)
Nic Scourton (DE, Texas A&M)
Ty Robinson (DT, Nebraska)
JT Tuimoloau (EDGE, Ohio State)
Shemar Turner (DT, Texas A&M)
Jack Sawyer (DE, Ohio State)
Jordan Burch (DE, Oregon)
Others could be available in this range, with players rising and falling after the combine. After further studying the makeup of this class for these articles, I think you can make a compelling argument that the Seahawks will be minded to go O-line in round one and D-line in round two.
Who might they be particularly attracted to at #50? Pre-combine, which will have a big impact on this projection, my guess would be:
Sai’vion Jones (DE, LSU)
Bradyn Swinson (EDGE, LSU)
Josaiah Stewart (EDGE, Michigan)
Darius Alexander (DT, Toledo)
Ty Robinson (DT, Nebraska)
As you can see though, there are a lot of good options here.
Remember, a third of John Schneider’s drafts in Seattle have seen the Seahawks take linemen with the first two picks. I think we could see that again this year.
It could set things up to take a shot on a quarterback in round three. That’ll be the focus of tomorrow’s article.
