A mock draft published in December is not an exercise in trying to guess what will actually happen in April.
You’re highlighting players. You’re assessing the positional strengths and weaknesses. You’re looking at options for teams. It’s a discussion starter, not an actual prediction.
Last week I tried to do one just for fun. I’m not publishing it. The 2026 class is so bad it was virtually impossible. I was fitting players with third round grades into the first frame. It was a legitimate struggle to find 32 worthy candidates.
There’s not even any respite in shortening things to a top-10 mock. The better players in this class do not play premium positions.
I get the sense that hard liquor will be passed around draft rooms next Spring. Teams are going to be weighing up using premium assets on bad value additions.
Let’s put it this way. The first round is going to be full of teams feeling like they’ve got $50,000 to spend on a new car. Yet the only cars available are worth $10,000. So, they spend the full $50,000 on the $10,000 car. Because they have to.
It’s going to be the hardest draft I’ve covered since starting the blog in 2008. It’s that bad. Don’t be fooled by those in the draft media business trying to convince you otherwise. They know they need to talk this up. Good luck with that. This is going to be a horror story Wes Craven would be proud of.
No top quarterback prospects. No top left tackles. No blue-chip pass rushers. The best player is a linebacker and the second, third and fourth placed rankings will likely be set between a safety, a running back and a right tackle.
When you get to about pick #20, there’s going to be no desire to even use these picks. My guess is teams will end up taking random fliers on good testers from the combine and pro-day circuit. We might see the premium position players pumped up as teams just to try and salvage what they can. It could be chaotic.
The Seahawks only have four picks at the moment and I think that’s partly by design. By the time they get beyond their third round selection, they might be onto priority free agent graded players on day three.
So what will it mean?
We might see more trades than ever when free agency starts. Teams will think they’re better off shifting out of the draft and using their best asset — their first round pick — to attack the veteran market.
Selling teams will inflate price tags accordingly because they’re unlikely to want loads of picks in the 2026 draft. They’re likely to do what the Jets did in the Quinnen Williams trade. They took a 2026 second rounder and preferred to have one of Dallas’ 2027 first round picks instead.
The good teams will face a dilemma. How prepared are they to overpay a little and give up 2027 stock to enhance their roster in 2026, knowing the options to improve via the draft will be limited?
If you were close in 2025 but didn’t win a Championship, you’re going to want to take the next step.
Let’s say the Raiders are open to finally trading Maxx Crosby but they want a high pick in 2026 and 2027. You have to balance out two thoughts. Acquiring someone like Crosby could help a team take a huge leap next season and give you a better shot at winning a Super Bowl. It’s hard to imagine how this draft class can do that. However, you might need to accept giving up stock in 2027 to take that shot.
People are already saying the next draft will be far better but it’s too early to say. A lot of the bigger name quarterbacks remain unproven. Pass rushers Dylan Stewart and Colin Simmons appear legit, as does receiver Jeremiah Smith and cornerback Leonard Moore. It could be a lot better but perhaps only at the top end for certain. The overall depth of the class is to be determined — and good teams are unlikely to find themselves in a range to pick Stewart, Simmons, Smith or Leonard.
Some will argue a big splash should be avoided simply because Seattle’s past history isn’t great. The Percy Harvin, Jimmy Graham and Jamal Adams trades didn’t deliver as intended. Yet their more recent history — calculated moves for Leonard Williams and Ernest Jones — have paid dividends.
A lot of fans are suggesting the Seahawks just continue to add on the O-line. I will never complain about focussing on the trenches. What I would say, though, is there are two problems. The class is so weak, don’t be surprised if any good O-liner — interior or tackle — is pushed way up boards. The desperate need for linemen and a weak overall draft could force teams to reach for these players.
For example, there’s talk that the likes of Peter Woods (disappointing), Caleb Banks (injured) and Blake Miller (average) could all be taken earlier than people realise. The reason is they are all trenches-based players who at times in their college careers have shown a degree of high potential.
Secondly, as much as I like players like Gennings Dunker, if they do not test well it is going to be difficult to justify drafting a player who would typically be taken well into day two a round earlier than is typical.
You might say you don’t care — but it’s the GM who has to deal with the blowback if the player looks and plays like a day two pick (or worse). Put it this way, imagine ‘just taking Christian Haynes’ in round one in a weak draft.
I really like Dunker and I’m not condemning him to the status of Haynes. However, we need measurements and testing data. It’s unclear how much upside he possesses. Grey Zabel went in the top-20 partly because he had outstanding physical testing results.
Value matters to GM’s. Their reputations are built on good drafting. Nobody wants to be placed in a situation where you know you aren’t getting value. The reality is 20 first round picks selected next April could bomb.
Trading for a big name is a surer bet to success and the chances of ‘winning’ a trade are going to be higher than ‘winning’ with this draft class. Yet supply will not meet demand in the trade market and the price of doing business will be high.
It’s a dilemma and will set off what could be a fascinating start to the new league year, leading into one of the more underwhelming drafts any of us have experienced.
My prediction for the Seahawks is they will be very busy at the combine checking in on various players. They and others might set up a sliding scale of potential trade targets, with the Crosby types at the top, moving into second tier options — perhaps players like De’Von Achane — and beyond.
How the rest of this season plays out will likely determine how aggressive they want to be. I think it’s coming though.
