We’ve heard a lot about Sam Darnold’s final two games in Minnesota — crushing defeats to the Lions and then the Rams in the playoffs.
Many pointed at these two games when arguing that replacing Geno Smith with Darnold was ill-advised. The term often used was ‘Darnold is pressure sensitive’.
I’ve always thought this is a ludicrous phrase, given every quarterback is going to be impacted by pressure. Yet I wanted to dig down into the truth about that Rams game in particular, considering they are Seattle’s next opponents.
LA recorded nine sacks against the Vikings and Darnold was under pressure on 27 drop-backs. For comparison, Matthew Stafford and Lamar Jackson were pressured 29 and 28 times respectively in the playoffs. They each played a game more than Darnold. So basically, he had two-games’ worth of pressure.
If you look at the percentage of pressured drop-backs a quarterback was partly responsible for in the playoffs, Darnold’s number was 16% against the Rams. Jalen Hurts’ number was 23.3% as he won the Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes was responsible for 25.6%. Darnold’s tally was only the eighth most among playoff quarterbacks in total — so his 16% was not a high mark of responsibility.
His turnover worthy play percentage in the Rams game was 7.1% — tied with Lamar Jackson’s mark as the seventh highest in the post-season. Mahomes had a 9.8% for TWP’s.
Take PFF grades with a pinch of salt but for the purpose of illustrating the point — Brian O’Neill, Minnesota’s best O-liner last year, had a 42.8 grade in this game. Cam Robinson at left tackle earned a 39.5 grade. They gave up three of the nine sacks — with Robinson also conceding an astonishing 12 pressures and 11 hurries from the blindside alone.
While Darnold clearly didn’t play well or find a way to elevate the offense against this barrage, it feels completely suspect to expect a performance in this environment.
The Vikings thought their offensive line was so bad after this game they spent a lot of money to acquire two new interior linemen (Will Fries and Ryan Kelly) and then used their first round pick on a guard (Donovan Jackson).
Funnily enough a bad O-line was often used as an excuse to cover for many of Geno Smith’s bad moments in Seattle. In the case of Darnold, he got the ‘pressure sensitive’ label.
If you look at the two quarterbacks in the regular season, Darnold was given some responsibility for 10.1% of the pressures he faced, with Smith at 8%. Not a big difference — Darnold ranked 30th and Smith 35th in that category so both suffered last season. Smith faced a league-high 251 pressures on drop-backs last year. Darnold faced 236 — the fourth most.
I think the criticism of Darnold went over the top, in part as people sought to confirm their priors on his NFL status. He’d been written off as a bust and then re-emerged. Typically when that happens, people are waiting for the fall. Darnold’s final two games acted as confirmation for some that he wasn’t actually that good after all. It was just Kevin O’Connell, or Justin Jefferson.
Yet the reality is with the Panthers, Vikings and now Seahawks — Darnold has enjoyed a degree of success. His teams have won games — he was 4-2 with even the lowly Panthers. He needs to win ‘the big games’ — but you could say the same about Lamar Jackson and his poor playoff record.
Darnold hasn’t been flawless and we’re seeing even now, there are throws and mistakes you’d rather he avoid.
It’s pretty clear though that too much was made in particular of his performance against the Rams last season. That was a perfect storm of bad O-line play and a great display by LA’s defensive front.
Now let’s flip it and look at Matthew Stafford’s one game against Mike Macdonald’s defense last year. How did Sean McVay fair with his starters?
The Rams ran for 68 yards on 24 attempts at an average of 2.8 yards-per-carry. Stafford, in the initial four quarters, threw for 215 yards with a touchdown and an interception. He was 22/41 passing (53.6%).
In overtime, he was 3/3 passing for 83 yards including the game-winning score. That immediately followed a hopeless turnover on downs by the Seahawks as they were driving for the win, deflating the team and the stadium. Credit Stafford for finishing it off but those last three throws were like a 7-on-7 drill and a hot knife through butter against a beaten team.
Even with the overtime success, Stafford finished with a QBR of 62.5 and a rating of 83.3. None of this is particularly good.
The Seahawks lost that game because they kept shooting themselves in the foot. The aforementioned snafu in overtime, the Geno Smith +100-yard pick-six.
Darnold ‘playing better’ will be a narrative this weekend. Stafford and the Rams’ running game have a point to prove too against McDonald’s defense.
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