The play of Drew Allar more or less reflects Penn State’s season overall. It’s been fine. Just enough to get to where they wanted to go — the BIG-10 Championship game and the playoffs.

Don’t get me wrong, despite statistically seeing a regression this year — his tape is a lot better. He’s nowhere near as erratic and aimless in 2024, even if he’s thrown seven fewer touchdowns and three more interceptions.

I think he warrants a place in the middle rounds of the 2025 draft and would be best served playing another year in college football. However, according to Tony Pauline, that isn’t likely:

While I do not know Allar’s conversations with agents, everyone around the Penn State program I’ve spoken with expects the Junior to enter the draft.

And though he’s not another Christian Hackenburg, if Allar enters the draft as expected, he will be overdrafted, as Hackenburg was.

He reminds me of Mike Glennon, the former NC State quarterback taken in round three who bounced around the league — most famously receiving a big contract from the Chicago Bears shortly before they traded up to draft Mitchell Trubisky instead of Patrick Mahomes.

The biggest problem is his technique, in particular his footwork. His throwing base whenever he has to move is problematic. Too often the velocity comes solely from his arm — at the next level, throwing this way, especially under increasing pressure, will lead to inaccurate throws. Plus every time he has to move he looks so ungainly and awkward. On the whole though I was always just left wanting more. Give me more plays to get excited about. I didn’t see enough.

I’d argue he’s had an unremarkable college career. Penn State haven’t had any keynote wins. Allar is far from solely responsible for this but he’s not carrying momentum into the NFL in the way some of the highly drafted quarterbacks did a year ago.

That’s one of the reasons I’m focusing on the game against Oregon. This is his latest opportunity to leave a big impression.

I’m also watching because Seattle’s GM is John Schneider.

I’ve no idea whether Schneider would be interested in Allar. He isn’t just automatically going to like every big-armed, tall, well-sized quarterback. He has shown a tendency to like these kinds of players though. Allar might be a bit awkward on the move but he is, in fairness, not a total statue. The GM who traded for Charlie Whitehurst and acquired (and talked up) Drew Lock may well see something in Allar.

At some point Schneider is going to draft a quarterback. I don’t blame him for not taking one since Russell Wilson was traded because none of the players he’s passed on have amounted to much so far. The Seahawks have an appealing bridge arrangement with Geno Smith but actually need to get the player you’re bridging to. You can’t force it though.

How inclined is Schneider to wait for the ‘wow’ player? The type of prospect who gives him the same feeling he had with Josh Allen, Wilson and Mahomes? Has he been so restrained for so long that he’s now almost inclined to wait for a ‘slap you in the chops high quality’ prospect? Or is he willing to take a player like Allar a bit earlier than he perhaps warrants, on the basis of potential and with the objective of development?

I do wonder if he’s waiting for special, in part because so much of the post-Carroll era will be judged on Schneider’s ability to find a great young quarterback. Clearly he liked Sam Howell because he traded for him and said he liked him in the draft. Yet he decided not to select him in even in round four. A whiff at quarterback in the draft would create pressure and it might increase conservatism when making a decision to select a QB.

I don’t necessarily see this as a bad thing though. I see fans all the time saying ‘just take one’. That’s not how it works. You can’t pass up players rated significantly higher on your board for the sake of being seen to simply select a quarterback. There’s also a lot more you have to consider when picking a signal caller. You have to see leadership and certain personality characteristics within a player to believe they can lead your franchise. You don’t have to worry about that as much when you select Coby Bryant instead of Howell, as Seattle did in 2022.

That said, I would like to see Schneider take a chance if he thinks a player can be ‘the guy’. The benefit of such a player playing for 3-4 years on a cheap contract is significant if they want to build-up other parts of the team.

I do believe Schneider will do this when he sees that player — and it won’t necessarily be one that universally has Seahawks fans roaring their approval. I’m sure some would’ve railed against Allen based on his Wyoming tape. He reportedly advocated for taking Andy Dalton in 2011 but Pete Carroll didn’t agree — and without consensus, they went in a different direction.

We’ve talked in the past about Schneider possibly having interest in Quinn Ewers. Now we’re talking about Allar. Twitter will be a fun place if they select either within the first two rounds.

The 2025 quarterback class might not be a great one but there are others who could interest Seattle enough to make an investment. I think, for example, John would have some appreciation for Garrett Nussmeier.

Back to Allar — you can clearly see his ability to throw downfield and he has some excellent layered throws into tight windows this year. There are also a few crazy moments where he avoids pressure, extends the play and makes a big completion downfield. This is what Schneider seems to like.

Statistically there are some fascinating things to consider. For example, he’s only thrown 10 ‘big time throws’. This is a relative tiny amount compared to the other big name quarterbacks eligible for 2025:

Seth Henigan — 29
Jaxson Dart — 28
Cam Ward — 28
Shedeur Sanders — 26
Carson Beck — 21
Garrett Nussmeier — 20
Kurtis Rourke — 18
Jalen Milroe — 17
Will Howard — 16
Max Brosmer — 14
Quinn Ewers — 10 (missed games through injury)

However, on the plus side he isn’t making too many risky plays. He’s only thrown four ‘turnover worthy plays’ which is a huge contrast to the other quarterbacks:

Carson Beck — 18
Garrett Nussmeier — 16
Quinn Ewers — 15
Cam Ward — 14
Jaxson Dart — 13
Will Howard — 13
Seth Henigan — 13
Max Brosmer — 9
Jalen Milroe — 9
Kurtis Rourke — 8
Shedeur Sanders — 6

I’m not sure these stats are actually a great feather in Allar’s cap when it comes to the Seahawks. I think Schneider is looking for a Brett Favre type of player — a gunslinger. Someone who is willing to take a few risks to make magic happen. I think he might be more interested in a slightly higher number of turnover worthy plays if the same player is also making a considerable number of big time throws.

Let’s look at Allar’s deep passing. Does he take enough chances? Only 11.2% of his throws are 20+ yard attempts. This is how he compares to other players:

Jaxson Dart — 22.3%
Jalen Milroe — 17.9%
Seth Henigan — 17.3%
Carson Beck — 16.1%
Kurtis Rourke — 16%
Cam Ward — 15.9%
Garrett Nussmeier — 15.9%
Shedeur Sanders — 14.8%
Max Brosmer — 11.7%

How can it be that someone with Allar’s size and arm is throwing a smaller percentage of deep throws than any of the names above? He only attempted 32 deep passes during the regular season. Here are the comparisons again:

Jaxson Dart — 81
Garrett Nussmeier — 78
Seth Henigan — 78
Carson Beck — 70
Cam Ward — 69
Shedeur Sanders — 68
Jalen Milroe — 52
Kurtis Rourke — 46
Max Brosmer — 44

Either by design or by choice, he isn’t let it rip enough. If Schneider is really tied to the idea of a gunslinging quarterback, Allar needs to push the ball downfield against Oregon and in the playoffs.

Granted, a big part of this will be the fact that tight end Tyler Warren is his top weapon. He looks for him all the time and as a tight end — he isn’t going to be running downfield much. Yet you could equally argue Mason Taylor is LSU’s best target, or that Georgia rely on their tight ends. Both teams throw downfield more than Penn State.

How you handle pressure and protecting the football is important. Allar does have the tools to be a more prolific deep-ball thrower and he’s statistically strong under pressure. Shedeur Sanders for example has created a NCAA high 15 self-inflicted pressures this season. Allar has created only seven. It’s incredible how bad Sanders has been at self-inflicted pressure. He was also responsible for seven QB hits and an astonishing 21 hurries. Cam Ward instigated 14 avoidable hurries, the second most among big names. Allar only contributed six.

Only four of Allar’s big time throws came under pressure, although none of his turnover worthy plays were under pressure either. He had the seventh best passing grade under pressure (68.3) in a similar range to Sanders (65.6) and Jaxson Dart (65.4).

Here’s the ratio of BTT’s to TWP’s under pressure:

Kurtis Rourke — 6/3
Jaxson Dart — 6/6
Cam Ward — 7/9
Shedeur Sanders — 8/3
Max Brosmer — 3/3
Will Howard — 1/6
Quinn Ewers — 1/5
Jalen Milroe — 4/5
Garrett Nussmeier — 3/10
Seth Henigan — 5/7
Carson Beck — 4/10

These numbers show why Sanders will probably be the first quarterback taken. He does create a maddening amount of self-pressure but he somehow actually thrives in this environment. Throwing 26 BTT’s and only six TWP’s all year, with a positive ratio under pressure, is impressive. Most of the other players struggle under pressure, unsurprisingly. Allar is the only player not to throw a TWP under pressure all year — but he’s equally not making a ton of ‘wow’ moments.

Penn State’s pass blocking grade only ranks 82nd in the NCAA. Texas are first (I’m surprised by this and it raises suspicion about the quality of PFF’s grading again frankly), Memphis 6th, Georgia 11th, Miami 23rd, Indiana 29th, LSU 33rd, Colorado 35th, Minnesota 62nd, Alabama 68th, Ole Miss 91st and Ohio State 106th. So it’s to his credit that he’s not made more mistakes.

Has he shown special qualities though? He hasn’t had a moment like Ewers on the road in Alabama last season. He has the frame to start in the NFL but does he have the ‘stuff’ to be a top quality franchise QB? Why isn’t he making more big plays downfield, why isn’t he even attempting to do so?

There are some moments on tape where you think — I can see Schneider liking this guy. Here’s one against Maryland:

This is the kind of arm strength you need to throw into tight windows over the middle in the NFL:

If Allar can go toe-to-toe with Oregon, have a great performance and elevate his stock further in the playoffs — he might be a name to watch. I suspect teams will be eager to see what he can do.

Yet I get the sense it’ll be more of the same. Another so-so performance. He’ll make some good plays, sure. Not enough though. Oregon will win, not emphatically but they’ll get the job done. It’ll be another close loss for Penn State in a big game.

It’s up to Allar and his team-mates to change the narrative there. In terms of his draft stock, it’d be nice to see him take a few more risks and make things happen.