On the 13th August last year, I wrote a piece titled: ‘Why I’m very positive about the Seahawks in 2025‘.
The majority of people were bullish about the Seahawks — although there was certainly an element of the fan base and media who were unconvinced by the decision to move on from Geno Smith and DK Metcalf. I still remember walking out of the opening game defeat to the 49ers with one noisy fan announcing that he’d ‘told everyone’ it was a mistake to trade Geno.
A post-season run to the Super Bowl was not on anyone’s mind really, even if there was a feeling of intrigue surrounding Mike Macdonald’s second year.
Here’s what I wrote:
As news broke that running back James Cook had signed a new contract with the Buffalo Bills, Adam Schefter tweeted a list of extensions completed by the team this off-season:
My initial reaction was to think there’s only one player on the list I’m jealous about — the name at the top. Otherwise, the Bills have signed a group of players to second contracts who are no better than the bulk of Seattle’s core.
The Bills are third favourites to win the Super Bowl, behind the Eagles and Ravens, according to ESPN Bet. Baltimore, like Buffalo, have a decent roster. Yet they’re led by their MVP candidate under center, not a loaded talent pool.
There aren’t any true super-powered blue-chip heavy teams at the moment. There’s nobody like the 49ers at their best a few years ago, for example. The Eagles are the closest and yet they’ll have to contend with being the defending Champs. Last time they were in that position they went 9-7 twice before collapsing to 4-12.
The point I’m making is this feels like quite an open NFL. There’s every chance a great quarterback like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow will break through this year as a consequence. Or Patrick Mahomes bounces back from a disappointing Super Bowl loss.
All of those players are in the AFC though. As we saw in the most recent Eagles Championship victory, it’s possible to get to the final game of the season then dominate on defense and win handsomely.
The Seahawks have a good young roster. They have key players and some, such as Leonard Williams, feel underrated nationally. Certain players have to reach a new level in 2025 but they’re capable. The defense has a chance to do special things this year in Mike Macdonald’s second season through a combination of available talent and scheme. We’ll need to see Klint Kubiak’s offense in a real game to properly judge but there’s definitely a positive vibe at the moment.
If the Seahawks can play better up front (they can hardly play worse), run the ball and get efficient play from their quarterback — they can complement a great defense nicely — much like the Shanahan-led 49ers when they were reaching Super Bowls with Jimmy Garoppolo and Brock Purdy under center.
This isn’t me making a Super Bowl prediction. A team needs to earn that kind of backing. They need to be better at home in 2025 to justify any level of post-season faith. They need to show they can be far more competent and consistent on offense. They need to stay healthy, too.
Yet I can’t shake the thought that this team is being slept on in a wide-open NFC. Unless you truly expect the Eagles to just carry on where they left off, who is the great team in the conference? The Lions have lost coaches and key players since last season and carry a ‘missed their best shot’ feel about them. Are the Commanders really that good aside from an excellent young signal caller? Are the Vikings a bit of a paper tiger, breaking in a new quarterback? How good are the Packers, actually?
The Rams and 49ers get plenty of attention but both are dealing with key injuries. Los Angeles, in particular, are riding a playoff hype train from last season that masks a matching 2024 record as the Seahawks — even when Seattle effectively played the whole season with an inept offensive structure. Matthew Stafford’s injury situation surely dents their prospects.
Much like the Lions’ emergence not that long ago, or the Commanders last year, I think the Seahawks can make some noise in 2025. I do think the O-line will be better thanks to proper guidance and scheming. I believe the running game will be more effective and complement a great defense. I sense Sam Darnold will do what he needs to do to make this team interesting.
I think the Seahawks are heading in the right direction. There’s no drama or ego either. Everyone seems to be getting on with business which is a refreshing change.
They also get to play the AFC South and NFC South this year — a bonus.
Everything feels positive and for once, maybe we can afford to wonder what is possible in 2025? It might not be a run to the Super Bowl. Playoffs? Very possible. Winning a post-season game? Ditto. Making a bit of a run? That would be an exciting shift in gears for a franchise that has had to wait a long time to get back to that kind of position.
Contrary to what some people suggest, I always own when I’m wrong. Heck, even in this piece I went on to voice scepticism about Matthew Stafford health (he went on to win league MVP).
Therefore, I’m not going to hide from the fact that was a pretty good projection for what was to come. The faith in the Seahawks in particular — which again, was not shared by everyone — was justified.
So what do I think now?
I don’t really think anything has changed.
There is an existing window for the Seahawks and the Rams that remains firmly open for this season. If I had to make a call for the upcoming season it would be that one of these two teams will once again represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
That’s not a very daring take — but it does feel firmly rooted in reality should both teams avoid terrible injury misfortune.
I wouldn’t say the conference is ‘wide open’ any more as I did a year ago, because the Seahawks and Rams have filled the void at the top. Anyone looking to make a run will have to go through them. Last summer, it felt like it was very much ‘TBD’ who would get to the end, with a handful of possible contenders.
I don’t think the other teams have done enough to catch up.
The NFC East could be an interesting division to watch but I’m not convinced any team within it has what it takes to become a Super Bowl outfit.
The Eagles were flawed a year ago — with question marks about the play-calling, the quarterback and other aspects of the team. The old guard who helped drive them towards Championships are either hanging on to the back end of their careers or they’ve retired. So much was built around the offensive line yet now there are question marks — including the loss of O-line coach Jeff Stoutland.
They were eliminated from the playoffs in their own stadium by a banged-up 49ers team who lost 41-6 to the Seahawks the following week. I’m not convinced they’ve done enough to come flying back to form in 2026.
The Giants have a collection of interesting younger players and now have a very experienced Head Coach in John Harbaugh. Does it feel like they’re at least a year away, though, from being a team you can truly buy into? We need to see how everything comes together. Plus, their key players need to stay healthy.
The Cowboys are the Cowboys — they’ll probably be very similar to last season. I’m not convinced by the Commanders at all and increasingly their 2024 run to the NFC Championship feels like a bit of a one-off.
These four teams will be fun to watch when they play each other — and it could be a competitive race for the division — but I don’t think any will be in the Super Bowl.
In the NFC North I can’t help but feel like the Lions missed the boat. They had a window of about three years that might be comparable to the current window the Seahawks and Rams have. They failed to get to the big game — and now they might be coming down the other side of the mountain.
The Packers flatter to deceive too much. On their day they can probably beat anyone but they have consistently failed when it comes to key playoff games and showing they can go on a great post-season run. They’re always in the mix but often feel like a bridesmaid, never the bride.
The Vikings could be a sneaky difficult team to play given Brian Flores will undoubtedly field an excellent defense again. Kyler Murray is who he is at this stage but if they can find a way to play complementary football, with that defense, they could be in business. It’s still hard to imagine a Murray-led offense going deep in the playoffs though.
The Bears are the ones who could emerge. They gave the Rams a game in the divisional round and possibly should’ve won that game in the freezing conditions. Ben Johnson clearly is capable of putting a productive offense on the field. However, last season they relied on highly dramatic late comebacks to win a series of games. Can they keep doing that? Could their luck reverse in 2026? Is their defense good enough?
It’s hard to have any faith in the NFC South teams. Todd Bowles feels like he’s clinging on to his job and another middling season in 2026 could be the end. They’ve lost key veterans like Mike Evans, Vita Vea wants a trade and Baker Mayfield isn’t happy about his contract. It feels like a mess is brewing.
The Saints got on a bit of a roll towards the end of last season and the Falcons have upgraded their Head Coach. It’s still a division that was won by a very average Panthers team last year though. It would be a stunning set of events if any of these teams turned into genuine contenders.
So that leaves us, really, with the Seahawks and Rams. The clear top-two, just as they were a year ago. It could be that they go toe-to-toe for the next 1-3 years creating something of an epic rivalry.
I underestimated the Rams a year ago but nothing about Matthew Stafford’s stats from 2022 to 2024 suggested he’d do what he did. His play had declined. He’d had injuries. He didn’t reach 4000 yards in three consecutive years, have a QB rating close to 100 or top 24 touchdown passes. Then bang — 4707 yards, 48 touchdowns and a rating of 109.2.
I do wonder if he can do that again. He turns 39 in February. As we’ve seen with many quarterbacks, eventually you do just hit a wall. I’m going to give him the benefit of the doubt until we see him play though, after last season.
The moves to improve their secondary and then make the mega-trade for Myles Garrett shows they sense the opportunity on offer. So we see two teams really attacking things from different positions.
The Rams — highly aggressive, flashy-move dependant — relying on star power.
The Seahawks — keep their group mostly intact, modestly replaced those who departed, possess a deep roster that does not rely on big names.
Both teams obviously are well led and brilliantly coached.
Originally I didn’t like the fact that the first meeting between the teams wasn’t until Christmas Day. Now, it’s growing on me. I think both teams will be sizing each other up. They’ll be able to react at the trade deadline to prepare for the second half of the season and the inevitable collision course.
If both teams avoid the injury bug — they could be destined to meet three times again this season.
I haven’t forgotten about the 49ers but you have to wonder whether their injury issues, not to mention the recent accident for the Head Coach, combined with the age of certain key players, could mean that this is finally the year where they regress ahead of what might be a fairly significant refresh/rebuild.
The AFC feels more open to opportunity. It’ll be interesting to see what the Bills do under a different Head Coach. The Ravens also have a new coach and it’ll be fascinating to see how different they are in 2026.
Can the Bengals stay healthy enough to be competitive? They have the talent.
The Jaguars came on strong last season, whilst the Texans are clearly good quarterback play away from being a genuine threat. The Broncos have proven to be strong under Sean Payton, whilst the Chiefs will be expected to bounce back. Can Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers take a step forward?
And then there’s the Patriots — a team who feel primed (to me at least) to regress in 2026 after a fairytale run last year that has since been long forgotten amid the biggest tabloid scandal of the year.
A final point on the Seahawks and Rams.
I think there’s little reason to believe the Seahawks won’t handle being defending champions very well. As we saw on Hard Knocks, this is a very unassuming staff and roster. There’s exceptional veteran leadership, a deep talent pool and plenty of young players who are very capable of taking the next step in 2026.
There’s a ‘business as usual’ feel to training camp, which doesn’t seem typical for defending champs. This is a team that went undefeated from November 17th and played completely balanced football across all three phases. They can win in so many different ways.
There are questions about losing the offensive coordinator and needing to see how Brian Fleury does in his first year as a play-caller — but even if there are growing pains, it’s fair to be optimistic about Seattle’s chances of being a team that can make another run.
It’s very rare that teams who ‘win’ the off-season go on to win the Super Bowl. I think the Rams have the best chance to break that conventional wisdom. They were a very good team a year ago and have now acquired the most physically gifted human in the NFL.
The weight of expectation can also be an issue sometimes. They start against the 49ers in Australia, return to play Harbaugh’s Giants, then go to Denver and Philadelphia. Their fifth game of the season is at home to the Bills.
It’s a challenging start. It’ll be interesting to see how they respond if they begin slowly because it’s entirely possible they lose at least a couple of those games.
