Why Jalen Carter & Myles Murphy are the real ‘risky’ picks

Mention Florida QB Anthony Richardson and you keep hearing the same thing.

Sure, he might be 6-4 and 232lbs. He might have top-tier arm strength comparable to the best players in the NFL. He might be able to run like a bigger version of Lamar Jackson. His upside and talent might be through the roof.

However, he’s not the finished product. He’s raw. Therefore he’s not worth a high pick.

Forget that the same complaints were made about Josh Allen, Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes. Daniel Jeremiah didn’t have Mahomes in his top-50 list at the start of April — weeks before the 2017 draft where he was selected tenth overall.

No, Richardson is simply too much of a project. The fact he didn’t elevate a Florida team that is basically rebuilding from scratch to improbable glory in the SEC means he can only be considered later in the draft.

For some reason this sort of thinking has spread. It’s the automatic response of most fans and media.

A quarterback who isn’t oven-ready to start like Joe Burrow is frequently viewed with suspicion. Burrow threw for 60 touchdowns, led an unbeaten season at LSU, won the Heisman and was able to throw to Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson.

It’s a standard nobody achieves in an environment few benefit from. Those who get close invariably have the same advantages — a loaded, powerhouse team full of top recruits. A wide-open spread system. The chops to make noise in the playoffs.

Yet, as it happens, it’s the flawed quarterbacks from Texas Tech and Wyoming who most people pine for.

Let’s switch over to the defensive line and discuss Myles Murphy.

Forget the fact that he’s had an underwhelming college career. Despite playing for Clemson on a loaded D-line, he only had 6.5 sacks in 2022. Most people don’t know that he didn’t start a couple of games this year and was spelled regularly because his performance wasn’t up to snuff.

It’s never discussed, never brought up.

When Clemson went to Notre Dame, Murphy was flattened in the running game. He looked dreadful as a run defender. The Irish took Clemson’s soul that night — made them look like a bunch of prima donna softies, unprepared for the battle in the trenches.

Murphy was the worst culprit.

What you do hear about Murphy is that he’s a fantastic athlete. He was third on Bruce Feldman’s ‘freaks list’ for 2022. He’s 6-5 and 275lbs and can reportedly run in the 4.5’s and jump a 35-inch vertical.

Incredible! What an athlete! What potential!

Just imagine what he could become?

The truth is Murphy is no more of a ‘sure thing’ than Richardson. Yet the two are treated very differently by the media and by fans.

A clip of Murphy forcing a pressure off the edge will get people dreaming of a dominant edge rusher. A clip of Anthony Richardson throwing for a 65-yard touchdown, then on the next drive running for an 80-yard touchdown (which happened during the season) receives far less buzz.

I’m concerned about Murphy. To me he looks like a five-star recruit who has always been a naturally gifted athlete and as such, has found it quite easy in High School and college. When you watch Will Anderson at his best, he treats every down like the Super Bowl is on the line. Murphy too often goes through the motions.

I say this having watched every Clemson game from the 2022 season. There were odd flashes from Murphy but nothing that made me feel like I was watching a ‘must-have’ player. You never sat up in your seat watching him. More often than not you were left wanting more.

His size is impressive but it’s also a slight detriment. He isn’t a lean edge rusher in the same bracket as the Bosa’s or Myles Garrett. He’s quite chunky and doesn’t have a great deal of muscle definition. You see some stiffness off the edge at times and he doesn’t have the explosive twitch to get a tackle on skates, then fly around the arc and straighten to the quarterback.

He wins, more often than not, by engaging and countering. This is a great ability to have and will serve him well in the NFL if it translates. The size and athleticism really stands out when he can get into the pads of a blocker, use his length to keep his own frame clean and then produce one of a number of effective counters to disengage.

This is partly why he only had 6.5 sacks in 2022 and eight sacks in 2021. There aren’t many easy wins where he just comes screaming off the edge. There has to be at least some doubt as to whether the counters will be effective against stronger, savvier pro-linemen. Is he ever going to be more than someone who can handle a 4-3 power edge role, producing 6-8 sacks at a peak? And is that worth a top-five pick?

Look at the pressure rates for some of the bigger name pass rushers in college football in 2022:

• Laiatu Latu: 22.6%
• Jared Verse: 17.1%
• Tyree Wilson: 16.7%
• Will Anderson: 16%
• Andre Carter: 15.7%
• BJ Ojulari: 13.7%
• Zach Harrison: 13.3%
Myles Murphy: 10%
• Isaiah Foskey: 9.9%

The likelihood he becomes a fairly average starter are, in my opinion, more likely than Murphy becoming a game-wrecking force.

Online, however, it’s almost like none of this is ever discussed. He’s simply a great athlete with wonderful size and that’s it. Top prospect.

You’d never know that Richardson’s PFF grade was 80.1 in 2022 and Murphy’s was an almost identical 79.0. The way the two players are discussed is so different.

To go back to Richardson, let’s also quickly review his strengths and weaknesses. He has elite arm strength and prototype size. He can drive the ball downfield and make the improbable happen. However — he is also far less raw than the mainstream makes out. He played in a system that required him to make adjustments at the line and shift protection. He’s operated in a pro-style offense that has a lot of modern misdirection, bootlegs and play-action. He’s also incredibly difficult to tackle in the pocket and can throw with a defender clinging on to him. As a runner — if he breaks contain he’s a threat to score any time he’s in the open-field. Opponents will have to be mindful of Richardson as a runner on every snap.

On the negative side, there were too many throws that were just ‘off’. In every game he would throw passes high or behind. Sometimes his timing would be out of whack. He also needs to learn to throw with greater touch. Too often he throws at full power when taking a bit off was necessary to help the receiver make a completion. There were some ugly interceptions early in the season where he just misread the defense but as time went on, those disappeared.

I would argue that his biggest flaws — being off with his timing, learning to throw with a bit more touch — are things that can be learned with more field experience. He only started for one season at college. You could easily make a case that his first year as a starter was, comparatively speaking, a revelation. Very few quarterbacks play that well in essentially a one-and-done situation.

The people arguing he could’ve benefitted from another year at Florida make a compelling case. It would’ve been fascinating to see his year-two growth. However, with the Gators looking like a bit of a mess at this point (highlighted by a 30-3 hammering by Oregon State in the Las Vegas Bowl, a game Richardson sat out) — you can hardly blame him for thinking it’s best to move on.

Either way he’s shown flashes to suggest superstar potential. Murphy, with respect, has not shown those same flashes. Yet Murphy is celebrated for his athleticism, size and upside. Richardson’s athletic qualities are acknowledged but smothered by the narrative of being unprepared for the NFL with the perception of ‘high risk’.

In Josh Allen’s final year at Wyoming, he had 21 total touchdowns and six interceptions. Richardson had 26 total touchdowns and nine interceptions in his only season as a starter, in the SEC, without much of a supporting cast. Should we not be more open-minded about players with extreme traits but perhaps need time, as Allen did, to reach their full potential?

You can make a similar case for Will Levis. People love to knock him after a disappointing final season for Kentucky. Yet any kind of perspective is lost whenever he’s brought up. He wasn’t playing for a powerhouse like Alabama, Ohio State or Georgia. He didn’t feature in a wide-open spread offense making his life easy like the ones we see with Washington, Tennessee or TCU.

Levis ran a pro-style offense for a struggling offensive coordinator who is being replaced after one season. He had no weapons to speak of and didn’t have his top running back available for a full season. He had to lead Kentucky against the top teams in college football in the SEC.

Most importantly, he played behind a god-awful offensive line and was hammered every week for a full season:

Oregon — 4 sacks in 12 games (0.33 per game)
Georgia — 7 sacks in 13 games (0.54 per game)
Washington — 7 sacks in 12 games (0.58 per game)
Ohio State — 8 sacks in 12 games (0.67 per game)
Florida — 12 sacks in 12 games (1.00 per game)
Alabama — 20 sacks in 12 games (1.67 per game)
Tennessee — 23 sacks in 12 games (1.92 per game)
Kentucky — 42 sacks in 12 games (3.50 per game)

I’m going to keep mentioning this because it’s important. Kentucky gave up 42 sacks in 2022. Michael Penix Jr was sacked seven times.

When you actually look at what Levis offers — incredible arm strength, the ability to make the crazy improbable happen, escapability and playmaking as a runner, pro-style experience, top-level character and maturity, prototype size. This is a portrait of a very exciting player.

He’s far from flawless but again — very few quarterbacks who come into the league are. Not Allen, not Mahomes, not Herbert.

Yet the ratio of people speaking negatively about Levis is far greater than those speaking positively about him. With Myles Murphy, the negatives are barely ever mentioned.

I want to end with Jalen Carter — who is also considered by many Seahawks fans to be the apple of their eye. The player Seattle needs for the defensive line. The player who is destined to come in and turn the team into a serious contender because the front will be dramatically improved.

His risk factor is so much greater than Levis or Richardson. We’ve got the reported character concerns, we’ve seen the poor conditioning, we see how much he is spelled and can legitimately ask whether he’ll be ready for the battle of endurance that is the NFL.

After half-time in the National Championship game, ESPN ran a sideline report that revealed he was ’embarrassed’ by how gassed he was against Ohio State, so he spent the week doing morning sprints.

I cringed when I heard that. You can’t significantly improve your stamina in a week. You don’t try and improve your conditioning between the playoff semi-final and final with the biggest prize on the line. You have to be ready to go in the summer. You need to be ready for the season. Conditioning isn’t something you ‘have a bit of a go at’ ahead of your last game.

If he isn’t taking this seriously when millions of dollars are on the line as he prepares to turn pro — why will he do it when those millions are banked?

I did a bit of digging today and found this press conference from last April. Carter was asked this opening question:

“Coach (Kirby) Smart was just in here talking about how he wants you to step up as a leader, work on conditioning…”

Carter answered:

“I’ve started running more after practise and all that because they told me I could be a top-10 pick and all that, so I’ve done a lot that I didn’t usually do my freshman year and I’ve just been working harder.”

Later in the interview, when he was asked about the areas of his game he was working on, he again reiterated that conditioning was his main focus — specifically doing some extra running because he expected to ‘get a lot of reps’.

Conditioning was raised by the coaches as an area for improvement or greater dedication long before the 2022 season began. Carter acknowledged it and talked about being motivated to act because he wanted to be a high draft pick.

Despite the prompting by coaches and the clear motivation of millions of dollars to earn, his conditioning was a problem during the season culminating, in his words, in an ’embarrassing’ performance against Ohio State.

This is a concern. When Georgia were telling him to work on his stamina he didn’t deliver with millions at stake. What motivation will he have when the millions are banked?

Then you move on to performance. When he returned from injury in the second half of the season, he played as well as anyone in college football. He was constantly disruptive. In the two playoff games, though, he was quiet, restrained and only offering occasional glimpses of quality — amid all the huffing and puffing he did as fatigue set in.

Carter feels like an incredibly risky proposition. You can easily imagine him never really getting the need to be ‘on it’ all the time to max out his potential. You can imagine a team needing to kick his arse for three years in the hope the light will finally switch on. You can imagine him being a big let down. You can also imagine, with his talent, that he takes things a bit more seriously and becomes a force.

Let’s look at it like this. Jalen Carter is highly athletic with good size and a ton of upside but there are character and conditioning question marks, not to mention production issues. Anthony Richardson is highly athletic with good size and a ton of upside with no character concerns or question marks but in first year as a starter, he made a few mistakes.

Why are people scared to death of Richardson but speak only in the most glowing terms for Carter? Not just Seahawks fans incidentally, many of which have decided that drafting D-line is the only option at #5 (it isn’t). The media has a tendency to view quarterbacks through a far more critical lens.

Perhaps that comes with the territory of the position? Even so, we shouldn’t be judging that players are ‘less’ risky than others, when the evidence suggests nothing of the sort.

If you can justify taking Jalen Carter with his 40% snaps a game, character questions and conditioning issues at #5 — surely you can justify investing in an extremely talented quarterback of the future too?

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  1. Denver Hawker

    On Carter, I suspect the conditioning issue was once a non-factor in the draft. NFL teams could have rigorous “optional” off-season plans, camps, etc. Now, players are basically on their own, and it shows. A team drafting him has less influence in how he conducts himself outside the facility.

    On the QBs, pick 5 is a luxury for Seattle. The discourse might be justified for a team that earned a top-5 pick. Texans don’t have a roster to support Richardson IMO and would be rightly upset picking him at #2 if comparing him to Burrow/Lawrence at #1. Makes all the sense in the world for the Hawks to take him at #5 with a better roster to support his development.

    • Rob Staton


    • Hawktalker#1

      Oh yeah. Sign me up.

    • GrittyHawk

      I think a lot of the discourse is driven by how close certain sects of our fanbase think we are to a championship-caliber team. After this season a lot of fans seem to think we can win a Super Bowl with Geno at QB next year if we just add a couple of defensive linemen, so they see QB as a wasted pick.

      I tend to believe the opposite — we greatly benefited from a dreadful schedule and this team is absolutely nowhere near contention with or without Geno. I don’t see any way we are competitive next year given our roster construction and cap space. We could maybe make a run in 2024 if we have another good draft, free up cap space by ridding ourselves of the atrocious Adams and Diggs contracts, and use what is shaping up to be a ton of cap space on key free agents. But then at that point, you’re still looking at a pretty young roster and betting that a 35 year old Geno — who people seem to forget was a complete and utter dumpster fire for the previous decade — will somehow repeat the season he just had. For all of those reasons, I am fully in favor of using our top pick on a QB.

      • Rob Staton

        Excellent post Gritty

      • cha


      • Connor

        I also can’t think of another QB that had what felt like, multiple dropped interceptions per game. The luck was crazy.

    • Nick

      this right here!! NAILED IT

    • 12th chuck

      thanks Denver hawker, and grittyhawk, these posts are why I read thru all the comments everyday

      • Steve

        Same here

    • Hebegbs

      I’m with Denver 100%. In fact so much that I too live in Denver now.

      I would personally prefer to Hawks to take Richardson at 5 vs Carter. Rob points out many red flags. I didn’t watch him all year like Rob has but I’ve been very underwhelmed by his performance against OSU and TCU. He doesn’t stand out to me.

      5 is a bit of a luxury. Take Richardson if the draft unfolds where the top 6 listed (that only Richardson or Carter remain) and let him develop behind Geno for a few seasons. Try and sign Geno on a 2 year with club option for 3. He knows our system. He has to hopefully be aware of what happened to Russ when he moved on. Geno is going to make $ but in many ways this opportunity came out of the blue for him and was an opportunity the Hawks gave him. He may or may not see it that way or care. I hope they lay him and he agrees to a fair amount so that the Hawks can build a team while Richardson develops as the heir apparent.

      • Hebegbs

        Or pay him. 😉

  2. Belfasthawk

    Enjoyed this. Thank you. How would you rank the QBs if all were available at 5 (I know they won’t be)?

    • Rob Staton

      I’m going to hold off on a ranking right now but I think all four are really good

      • Belfasthawk

        Thanks so much. Look forward to that!

        • Rob Staton

          I do think C.J. Stroud will be the #1 pick though

          With Levis taken shortly after

  3. BobbyK

    Great read! I’m totally on the Anthony Richardson train! Sometimes passers have gone into slumps but the running ability does not slump.

    • BobbyK

      I would say Florida’s bowl game showed that Richardson definitely elevated his team during the season. They got hammered 30-3.

      Would Stroud or Bennett have sniffed the college playoff if they had been playing for Florida this past season? The answer is an obvious ‘no.’

      • Elmer

        Or Kentucky.

  4. Henry Taylor

    I’m increasingly interested in trying to trade into the number 1 pick. Obviously it depends on the cost (I don’t want to give up 3 firsts to move up 4 spots for example) but I think Seattle are positioned to make the best offer, extra draft capital this year and can offer Chicago a chance to still pick in the top 5 while acquiring more stock.

    Compounded by the potential of Stroud going back to school, I don’t want to just be sitting at 5 and miss out. I think if Schneider really likes a guy, like he apparently liked Mahomes and Allen, we should take this rare opportunity to go for greatness.

    • Roy Batty

      But you would be entering into a bidding war, chewing up all your high draft capital.

      I don’t see a single player worth that investment in this draft.

      However, if they keep their picks, follow last year’s model and navigate the draft with patience, they can fill multiple holes on the roster and STILL possibly come away with a good QB prospect.

  5. Zxvo3

    I think the reason we will end up with AR is because the QB needy teams will want a QB who can start NOW. For example, I think the Colts will move up to the first pick to get Will Levis because I think he’s the most pro-ready and can make an impact instantly. I also think QB needy teams like the Raiders and the Panthers (who could trade up) have rosters that require QBs who will need to start right now. The Seahawks have a luxury to select a QB who can sit a year behind Geno, or even Drew Lock for that matter, to become a great QB when asked to start the year after.

    That said, if Anthony Richardson walks into the combine this year and starts throwing beautiful 70 yard bombs like Josh Allen was doing in the 2018 combine, I don’t think he’ll be there at 5. Teams aren’t stupid, and as Rob said teams are looking for players such as Mahomes, Allen, and Herbert who had their issues but also had amazing upside. I think this way of thinking was the reason why Trey Lance was taken in the top 5. People want these kinds of players.

    • Big Mike

      You type faster than I do. LOL
      I hope those needy teams decide Levis, Stroud and especially Young fit their more pressing need and go that route.

      • Roy Batty

        I’m hoping Anderson, Carter and Murphy all blow away the press with their combine performance, leading to more than a few teams becoming laser focused on drafting one of them.

        • geoff u

          Absolutely, I would be fine with one of the top 4 quarterbacks, I want the defensive players to rise up the ranks so we at least one is left for us or several are and we get to be choosy

  6. Big Mike

    I firmly believe that if John is making the choices without Carroll’s interference as we believe happened last year, he will be taking a QB not named Young. I have already said I believe Richardson will be there for him because the other teams looking at QB need someone that is perceived as more ready to step in and start as demanded by ownership and fans.

    • Rob Staton

      FWIW I think John would be prepared to take Young too

      • Matt

        One of the things I admire about JS is that he truly knows when to make exceptions (not saying he’s perfect on this front). Obviously he doesn’t hit on all of those, but I feel like he takes the appropriate risk.

        Candidly, where we drafted Malik McDowell – I had no issues with it. There was risk but the trade off was a potentially dynamic IDL at a significantly discounted price.

        I think that’s the crux of my issue with Carter. Big risk at a premium price – ZERO discount.

        • cha

          I recall vividly the draft phone call to McDowell.

          All smiles and congrats and the usual hooplah.

          Then JS got serious and said “I want you to remember what we talked about.”

          He knew it was a risk. It did go south, but it wasn’t like he made no effort to reach the young man.

          • Matt

            I remember that as well.

            The other thing I keep coming back to is how many overachievers and overlooked guys have blossomed here on the DL. Now, granted that was early Pete Carroll but the common theme was high effort/motor guys who played like every play was their last. Funny how a defense built of high effort guys achieved so much. It’s such an overlooked trait on the OL/DL.

          • StevenD

            The thing you admire about JS, is what I don’t. The hubris leading to draft mistakes.

            Don’t misunderstand.. JS is excellent at:
            – relationships – making resigning players and being in on all trades a strength
            – cap management – has managed to make the cap, by and large a non-issue in his tenure
            – leadership – great cultural fit and runs a team that has exported talent elsewhere

            Lots to love about JS. And drafting, overall, has been abysmal. From 2013 to 2022, 1 in 4 picks a starter and 1 in 20 (yes, that’s right 20) a meaningful player. There’s a reason we need DL, OL, LB, and just about everything else…

            On McDowell specifically he and Pete arrogantly ignored Malik’s VERY disturbing combine/pre-draft interviews. The reason he dropped on most boards. Clearly a screw missing. Could anyone have predicted the ATV accident? Of course not. But, it was clear that there would be something amiss at some point. And the recovery plan after he washed out? A swing for the fence trade that further set us back. This and other similar draft failures followed by failed trade is what brought us to the Russ trade out of necessity. We desperately need the picks to restock this team.

            All good. Love the reset. Russ trade was the right thing to do for lots of reasons. 2022 draft was a home run like the 2011 and 2012 drafts. But JS LOVES to go against the grain and the reason we’ve returned to draft success in my view is that he FINALLY chose not to go against the grain in 2022 and avoided arrogantly picking guys above expected or after they’d dropped – guys like McDowell, Ifedi, Collier, etc.

            • cha

              – cap management – has managed to make the cap, by and large a non-issue in his tenure

              The cap has been a HUGE issue.

              • Hebegbs

                Yeah he lost me at cap management.

      • Big Mike

        I’m not so sure Rob, but I don’t think we’ll find out cuz I think either Houston or Carolina via trade up take him.

        • Rob Staton

          I don’t think he is anti short QB I just think he has preferences

  7. GrittyHawk

    Semi-related question: is there a free site that has college football snap counts? Would be nice to have a source to cite in the inevitable Seahawks Reddit draft arguments, where you immediately get 100 downvotes if you say anything bad about Carter or benignly suggest that QB is a possible pick.

    • DW

      Cant stand that place, but it is to be expected. Just a bunch of casual fans, or hyperfanatics who cannot handle criticism or realism

  8. cha

    Great article.

    It absolutely is a positional bias. Game-wrecking defensive linemen make 3-7 impact plays per game on average. The QB touches the ball on every single play and teams live or die with them.

    The counterpoint everyone misses on it is this: the salary for rookies is slotted by pick, not by position. Carter, Anderson, Stroud, Levis, Young, whoever is picked #1 gets the same money.

    The value proposition is far, far higher if you take a talented QB that needs development than a pass rusher like Carter or Murphy that are not 100% locked with that mix of play, athleticism and competitiveness.

    How many quarterbacks are there right now making $30m a year or more? 13. With Tannehill making $29.5, and four more set to join the club (Lamar, Herbert, Burrow, Hurts). Maybe even Geno

    How many pass rushers are there right now making $30m a year or more? 1. Aaron Donald. Who’s going to join the club soon? Nick Bosa. Anyone else? Maybe Jeffrey Simmons?

    At that rate, it is very easily justifiable to even sit the QB for a year of his rookie deal, and you’ll still overcome pass rusher in cost/benefit ratio. Maybe even as soon as Year 2.

    You have to look at all sides.

    • BobbyK

      Most definitely.

    • Steve Nelsen

      This is an excellent point cha that didn’t get talked about enough with respect to last year’s successful draft; Seattle not only got rookies who contributed immediately at value positions: OT, CB and Edge. The biggest value position is QB. Seattle has a rare opportunity to get a franchise QB at a bargain cost – even if the y sign Geno as a bridge.

      Another value position this draft seems deep in is WR. Do we finally get a stud #3 who will one day replace Lockett and also serves as insurance against injury or a DK meltdown?

      And I think using the other 2 early picks for S and DL makes sense and could fit with the talent in the draft.

      We can find interior OL, LB, and a backup RB without using premium picks. The only position I might fudge on is C if Seattle sees a guy that can start right away.

      Seattle overspent on the TE position by picking up the 5th year option on Fant and giving a big contract to Dissly (though they did get solid production from the combined trio) but it looks like there is only 1 stud in the draft and he’ll be gone by Seattle’s second 1st-round pick.

    • Big Mike

      💯 cha. Spot on

      • cha

        Just to pile on, the savings on QB is so vast, you can pile on and go out and buy a pass rusher or two in the market. And they are proven performers.

        You may not get an all-world type but your pass rush will be significantly better than it was before.

        The value gap is so high, if there are 4 top QBs in the draft like there are this year, and no Garrett or Bosa, the only teams in the top 4 that don’t select a QB should be teams that have their long-term QB future secure AND cannot get an absolute ransom to trade down.

        • cha

          Remember 2018 when the Saints traded a future first round pick to go up from late in the first to the middle of the first and drafted Marcus Davenport with Lamar Jackson still on the board? And Drew Brees about to turn…39?

    • Ashish

      Amazing analysis Cha. I’m sure JS agree to your point. We will have 2nd amazing draft this year.

      SDB, irrespective to draft order or position which players you would like to be drafted?

      My choice would be

      1) SV Pran – center
      2) Levis, AR or C J – QB
      3) JL Skinner – Safety
      4) Kenny McIntosh – RB
      5) Calijah Kancey – DL

      • JimQ

        Watched tapes of Kancey recently and my impression was that he’s a “GREASED PIG”, even with shorter arms, he takes the lunches of a lot of offensive linemen, seems very disruptive with “swivel hips” and often defeats OL-men & just flies past them. A poor man’s Aaron Donald-IMO. I’d take him late R-2, perhaps after a small trade down that would net a 3-rd round pick or so. (An extra early pick in the very low 100’s would be valuable).

  9. AWM

    Longtime lurker that reads the outstanding information on this site daily. Thanks so much Rob! I would love picking Anthony Richardson at #5 along with resigning Drew Lock for a year or two. Hard pass on Geno and his impending 25 million + salary.

    • 509 Chris

      I like your point here. I’m not necessarily routing for them to let geno go, but I hope they set a max they’ll pay and are prepared to let him go it the price gets too steep.

  10. Hawksorhiking?

    I want Richardson more than any player in this draft. Maybe it’s my “you gotta play big, to win big motto” but he just oozes future superstar. I like the other top prospects and would be happy, more or less, with any of them, but I’d literally jump out of my chair if they picked A-rich.

  11. Matt

    AR does a lot of high level QB things (pocket movement, progressions, etc). He needs more experience but a lot of the stuff I don’t think you can teach/coach, are there.

    *I don’t think you can make guys who are uncomfortable in the pocket, comfortable in the pocket. A bit of inherent trait, IMO.

  12. Troy

    Its gonna be really interesting to watch the combine, specifically for the QBs and see how that changes the narratives on the guys. I predict Richardson and Levis will get a bump, whereas CJ and Bryce sorta stay where they are. Could easily see the 4 QBs going in the first 4 picks (trades), in which case I’ll take Anderson. Would be a bit bummed to miss out on this QB class tho if it fell that way.

    • DC1234

      In the history of the NFL, has the top four picks in the draft been all qbs?

      Im not sure, but i think that possibly is unlikely.

      Right now, my worst case scenario for the seahawks is Bryce Young and Carter being available at the #5 pick. When Levis, CJ, Richardson, anderson is taken before.

      Only because i like the other three qb more than Bryce.

      • DC1234

        Also this year there are a lot of qb available via FA and trades (Carr, jimmy, brady, love/rodgers, geno).

        So im guessing less teams will sell the farm and move up in the draft. I dont see teams doing another Lance type of trade.

        • Rob Staton

          I’m not sure I agree there

          There are lots of teams that have been drifting along with ageing veterans for a while now

          Just finding another short term fix and hoping that’s OK won’t cut it

          I think we’re going to see some teams like the Panthers, Colts, maybe Commanders, Vegas be very, very aggressive

          • Jack Frost

            Think the Raiders are eyeing T Brady pretty hard. Doesn’t mean it will happen. Many of their home games have had more opponent fans than Raider fans and M Davis is pissed about it. He wants to get Raider fans in the stadium ASAP. Not necessarily great for team building but then I don’t see M Davis as a great team builder.

      • Palatypus

        DC1234 said, “In the history of the NFL, has the top four picks in the draft been all qbs?”

        Well, that would be truly historic. I went on Pro Football Reference and started looking at the great quarterback draft of 1983 where six were taken in the first round.

        In 1993 Drew Bledsoe was taken #1 overall and Rick Mirer #2 overall.

        In 1998 Peyton Manning was taken #1 overall and Ryan Lead #2 overall.

        In 1999 Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb and Akili Smith went 1-2-3 overall before Edgerrin James and Ricky Williams rounded out the top 5.

        In 2002 David Carr went #1 overall and Joey Harrington went #3 overall.

        In 2003 Carson Palmer went #1 overall and Byron Leftwich went #7.

        In 2004 Eli Manning went #1 overall and Phillip Rivers went #4.

        In the 2009 NFL Draft, Matt Stafford went #1 and Mark Sanchez went #5 overall.

        In 2011 Cam Newton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, and Christian Ponder went 1-8-10-12.

        In 2012 Andre Luck went #1 overall, Robert Griffin III went #2 overall, Ryan Tannehill went #8 overall, Russel Wilson was taken #78 overall, and Kirk Cousins was taken #102 overall. I saw all of these quarterbacks in person at my first Senior Bowl except for Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III. This was a really good class.

        In 2013 the only quarterback taken in the first round was E.J. Manuel by the Buffalo Bills at #16. The next quarterback took wasn’t until the second round #39 by the Jets and is currently the Seattle Seahawks starting signal caller.

        In 2015 Jameis Winston went #1 and Marcus Mariotta #2.

        In 2016 Jared Goff went #1 and Carson Wentz #2.

        In the upside-down world of 2017, Mitch Trubisky went #2 overall. Then Patrick Mahomes went at #10 (!!!), and Deshaun Watson went at #12. We were still in the upside-down in 2018 when Baker Mayfield was taken #1 overall, Josh Allen #7, and Lamar Jackson was taken at #32 !!!

        In 2019 Kyler Murray was taken #1 and Daniel Jones #6. The late Dwayne Haskins was taken with the #15 pick.

        In 2020 Joe Burrow was taken #1, Tua Tagolaivoa went #5, and Justin Herbert went #6.

        In 2021 Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, and Trey Lance went 1-2-3. Justin Fields went #11 and Mac Jones was taken at 15. This might be why the 2022 quarterback class was so bad.

        • Elmer

          I think that your information makes an important point. The probability is not very high that all 4 of this draft ‘s top QB’s will turn out to be really good in the NFL. Has there been a draft class where 4 Quarterbacks became stars? The Hawks need to be really careful about who they draft. Last year proved that they can do it.

          • Palatypus

            1983. John Elway, Dan Marino, Jim Kelly, Tony Eason, Ken O’Brien, and Todd Blackledge.

            • Elmer

              Thank you Palatypus. You showed me that it has happened. I was thinking of more recent classes like Allen, Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen, etc.

              • Cambs

                It’s a bit greedy to want four QBs in a single class to *become stars*. 1-2 eventual stars and 1-2 additional starters out of 5+ quality prospects is a very good draft cohort. Maybe closest could be the 2020 class with Burrow, Herbert, Hurts (in the late 2nd), Tua (and a flickering candle for Jordan Love?).

                These early QBs (in any year) are like the boys at Kaer Morhen, they’ll all face the Trial of the Grasses and the actuarial tables say that lots of them won’t make it. But that’s the way to make a Witcher.

  13. 509 Chris

    Rob, or anyone with an opinion… Do you think Carter could see a slight fall on draft day and not go in the top 5? I know the top end of this draft isn’t great but I wonder if teams are looking at the same things Rob is. Personally I’ve liked Richardson since the Eastern Washington game. And he looked less refined at that point of the season than he did at the end. Picking at 5 is a gift, don’t be afraid to gamble for a potential JACKPOT!

    • Rob Staton

      A small drop is possible but someone will roll the dice

    • Elmer

      Anything is possible in the draft. I have trouble seeing who would move ahead of him though. RB? TE?

    • MountainHawker

      I don’t see any way he falls past the Eagles

  14. StevenD

    Great discussion and appreciate all the good info on the various options at the top of the draft. Good times!

    I agree that QB is treated differently, and not sure I agree that it should be any different than DL or other positions. However, isn’t the issue the relative complexity of the QB role?

    Another post mentioned the number of plays that a QB can make to impact a game relative to DL. But it is more than that, right? Leadership expectations, face of franchise, on-line adjustments, and yes, impacting every offensive play not a select few. Even higher risk/return right?

    Again, I tend to agree that it shouldn’t be that different – assuming that a player’s intelligence/character isn’t an issue. If its instead purely maturity in role, directionally it shouldn’t be different – the same relative upside exists across roles. Nevertheless, wondering if we agree on what has traditionally driven the difference in expectations?

  15. Sam

    I can see even Pete falling in love with AR. He loves freaky athletes. I would personally draft levis/AR at #5 and spend rest of the draft in trenches.

    • God of Thunder

      I can see Levis and Richardson and Stroud going 1-2-3, or 2-3-1 or something like that.

  16. DJ 1/2 way

    I agree with Rob and Cha on Richardson having the highest upside. He is compared to Lamar Jackson but looks more like Steve McNair. That thick lower body should prove tough. Even Cam Newton looks like a leggy sprinter in comparison. I would select him at 5 no matter who is available.

  17. Rob4q

    So which of the QB needy teams are better suited to a veteran QB as opposed to drafting one? And to go one step further, when you look at the FA QB’s for 2023, who are the top ones available?

    1. Carolina – great defense, solid OL and run game, #1 WR
    2. LV Raiders – lot’s of weapons on offense, top WR, TE and RB, offensive coach, talent on defense
    3. New Orleans – great defense, good WR & TE, good running game
    4. GB Packers – solid defense, good OL and run game, good coaching staff
    5. Washington – good defense, decent OL and run game, #1 WR
    6. Indy – good OL and defense last year, top RB
    7. Houston – good RB and some pieces on offense, young defense
    8. Atlanta – some weapons on offense, young defense, offensive coach
    9. Detroit – basically a playoff team, good skill positions on offense, young defense, good coaching
    10. NY Jets – good defense, decent OL and run game

    I included the last 3 even though they already have in house QB’s because you never know. And you would have to add teams that might lose their QB in FA like NYG and even Seattle.

    Now who are the top FA QB’s:

    1. Lamar Jackson*
    2. Tom Brady*
    3. Geno Smith
    4. Jimmy Garapolo
    5. Daniel Jones*
    6. Gardner Minshew
    7. Jarrett Stidham
    8. Andy Dalton
    9. Drew Lock
    10. Jacoby Brissett

    *Most likely will sign extension or get the franchise tag. I think Brady retires or resigns with the Bucs

    So not a great list of available QB’s…I could see Carolina making a push to lure Geno if they keep Wilks as HC. Geno could take the reigns for a few seasons while Coral learns and the NFC south is there for the taking.

    • Troy

      I don’t think Brady is likely to resign with the bucs at all…I think he goes to the team best positioned to win him another ring, as thats all he cares about.

    • DC1234

      You forgot to include Carr. He will be traded or cut by the Raiders.

      I think GB will make a decision on Rodgers/Love. I dont see them keeping Rodgers and doing a 5th yr option on Love. So one of them will be available.

      There might be a surprise qb trade in the offseason like the past two years (Stafford, Russ, Watson)

      If Brock Purdy has a good playoff run, maybe teams can talk themselves into draft a qb in the later rounds, instead of round one. I dont agree with that tactic though.

      • Rob4q

        Yep, I forgot that Carr will be in the mix as well…

      • Roy Batty

        Unless Rodgers retires, he isn’t going anywhere until 2024, at the earliest.

        His dead cap next year would be $100 million. In 2024 it goes down to $24.5 million. A clause in the contract allows for a cheaper out that year

    • Orcas viking

      Also to consider…what’s the possibility that Dallas trades Cooper Rush to one of these QB-needy teams?

      • Rob Staton

        I’m afraid a quarterback needy team, especially the ones who’ve been desperate for a while (the ones needing one this year) is not going to try and sell to their fan base… ‘Look! We got you Cooper Rush!’

        • Orcas viking

          True, the PR optics might not be that impressive, but he played very well in Dak’s absence…a lot better than many of the QB’s listed above.

          • Rob Staton

            I just don’t see the Carolina’s, Vegas’, Indy’s etc out there thinking Rush is the answer

  18. Gaux Hawks


    1R23 – Anthony Richardson
    1R23 – Bryan Bresee
    2R23 – Sedrick Van Pran
    2R23 – Jonathan Mingo
    3R23 – Owen Pappoe
    4R23 – Jordan McFadden
    5R23 – Abraham Camara

  19. Matt

    I’d bet Scouts love Myles Murphy and coaches hate him – I mean NFL coaches.

    I’ve gotta imagine that all coaches require you to be a dog in the trenches and it’s the Scouts/GMs that fall in love with the traits.

    *Traits are important, but again, if those traits come with effort issues…no gracias.

    • Rob Staton

      I think it might be the other way around

      I think some coaches will feel like they can turn the physical traits into something and the scouts will say the tape’s crap

      • Matt

        Ah…totally legit point

  20. Gaux Hawks

    Levis just feels like a Colts QB to me… same feeling about the Richardson and the Seahawks

  21. Denver Hawker

    Impossible to mock, but can’t rule out a top 4 pulling a Clelin Ferrell.

  22. DC1234

    True. Maybe another Saquon Barkley 2nd overall pick. Maybe a team loves Bijon Robinson so much to take him top 4.

    Just wishful thinking

    • Ely

      IDK, I could see Arizona making a bold pass at Robinson. They need help on defense but seems like they’re a lot closer than their record. No Nuke for half the year really torpedoed Kyler’s head space. If they get a star RB and a couple other pieces with a new coaching staff I feel like they can quickly turn it around.

  23. Austin Slater

    Rob if you were a GM who would you draft for Seattle Richardson or Levis? Would you take both over Stroud and Young?

    The closer we get the more intrigued I am by all 4 if I’m being honest with Levis and Richardson the most exciting.

    • Rob Staton

      I like all of the top four QB’s

  24. Alfred

    How about Mazi Smith DT from Michigan and Tyree Wilson DE from Texas Tech? Will they be a better or safer option than Carter?

    • Rob Staton

      I really like Smith but his short arms will likely be a turn-off for the Seahawks specifically

      Wilson doesn’t warrant a top-10 pick for me but has intriguing size and length — I think he’ll go too early

  25. cha

    Anyone that had Roquan Smith on their shopping list can scratch that idea

    Ian Rapoport
    Per Saint Omni, The #Ravens agree in principle with All-Pro LB Roquan Smith — now the highest paid at his position in NFL history with a 5-yr, $100M deal. $45M fully guaranteed & $60M in total guarantees. Huge. The 1st off-ball LB to get $20M per year. Roquan represented himself.

    I know that was what he was gunning for, but wow.

    Good night!

    • Group Captain Mandrake

      Wow, that’s is crazy for a LB in the modern NFL.

    • Rob Staton

      $20m a year for a linebacker

      No thanks

    • Big Mike


    • Ely

      How do they do that deal without Lamar signed first? Lamar is going to see that and tack on 30% to his original asking price.

      • Roy Batty

        My thoughts as well.

        I foresee a tag, threatened holdout, then trade. Mirror image of the Clark fiasco in Seattle.

  26. Jessie

    Thanks for expanding on why you liked boye mafe Rob on the last thread.

    Great content , you are working overtime with all these posts.

    Also can I say the bears are now considering drafting a qb #1 overall? I know, I was told by everybody they wouldn’t do it but I didn’t understand why it wouldn’t atleast be a consideration and look where we are. Not trying to rub it in but I tried to bring it up as a conversation piece and had 5 people tell me there’s 0 probability. One week later and the gm is saying they will consider it. This will change the draft greatly for the Seahawks if it happens.

    • Group Captain Mandrake

      The Bears GM said they would have to be “blown away” to consider drafting a QB at number 1. That doesn’t really sound like they are considering it. I’m not sure if that is typical NFL doublespeak or the truth though.

      • Rob Staton

        For some reason Jessie wants to die on the hill of Chicago drafting a QB

    • Jordan

      As long as the Bears front office maintains a clear line of communication with Justin Fields I don’t see any harm in creating the perception that they may consider a QB; regardless of if there is any truth behind it.

      If you are bad/unfortunate enough to land the #1 pick it is front office malpractice to not do your due diligence on the top QBs available.

      • DJ 1/2 way

        1st thing I thought when I saw the “blown away” quote was that they are thinking about taking a QB. Otherwise, why say it? Well, maybe you say it so the team with the number two pick has to trade with you to get the QB they want. How many times could a team trade down like this?

        • Rob Staton

          It’s the Bears prerogative to keep everything on the table to max out the trade value of #1

    • Joshua Smith

      I’m pretty confident it’s just coach speak.
      The Bears are in position to get a haul from a team who wants to jump the Texans and Colts for a QB.
      It’s carrot dangling.
      Fields has improved. If you trade Fields you better be damn sure that the QB you take is gonna develop because if Fields continues to improve and be successful and the guy you pick turms into Zach Wilson your GM will be fired before the lights come on.

  27. Big Boi

    Don’t mean to be a wet towel but I’ve been thinking a lot about Woolen leading the league with interceptions.

    6. 6 interceptions. In a 17 game season. With one of them being that total fluke throw to Tom Brady.

    Then I thought, 6 does not seem like very many so I looked at who else had 6 this year.

    Simmons, Gardner-Johnson, and Fitzpatrick. All safeties. Safeties! Very weird.

    So I thought that’s weird, I wonder what a normal year is like. Last year was 11 (Trevon Diggs). Year before that was 10 (Xavien Howard).

    There are years where 7 or 8 lead the league, but 6 is tied with 2019 for the lowest league-leading interception total since 1947.

    So then I thought, what’s Woolen’s PFF? Barely top 30.

    My takeaway is that quarterbacks just aren’t throwing to the top CBs at all. They’re picking on the lesser CBs and Woolen just happens to be the one that can catch a few thrown his way. I’m starting to think that this idea of Woolen leading the league in interceptions is way overblown in terms of its importance and what it actually means to the defense.

    Beware the sophomore slump. We shouldn’t assume that we have a shutdown corner. In fact, the fact they kept throwing his way suggests he’s anything but. I suspect Cha will have a different spin and I look forward to hearing it.

    • Rob Staton

      It’s not an unfair point to raise

      Year two will be intriguing to see if Woolen can continue to develop

    • jessie

      Tariq Woolen leads the league in passer rating. Let me repeat louder for those in the back……OUT OF EVERY PLAYER IN THE NFL HE HAS THE WORST PASSER RATING WHEN THROWN TO. I can’t find the stat right now but it was like 48.9 or something. So yes this statement is a complete fallacy solely living in your mind and not grounded in any realm of reality.

      Sorry but I gotta stop this Tariq slander in it’s tracks.

      • Big Boi

        Only because of the interceptions and he’s a beneficiary of a flukey year where most interceptions went to safeties and not cornerbacks (which I still find fascinating and don’t quite understand but it is what it is). He’s fairly middle of the road in other stats, which explains why he’s barely top 30 on PFF.

    • cha

      Woolen leading the league in interceptions is way overblown

      I agree. It absolutely is. Trevon Diggs had a ton last year and this year he’s still targeted with regularity because he’s boom or bust.

      That doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be celebrated though.

      We shouldn’t assume that we have a shutdown corner

      I personally have never assumed that. In fact in one of my posts I made extra effort to say he’s not there yet.

      In fact, the fact they kept throwing his way suggests he’s anything but.

      I’m sorry, what? He’s the 76th most-targeted defender in the NFL.

      There are no CBs in the NFL who have started all 17 games that have been targeted less than Woolen. None.

      Mike White threw at him 10x last week. Why is an enduring mystery. The Jets’ offensive game plan was a disaster.

      Beware the sophomore slump.

      I agree. But not because his INT numbers might drop. And certainly not because of his targets.

      The biggest thing they will have to battle is letting his talent and instinct run free like this year. Filling his mind with details and configurations could bog him down.

      • Big Boi

        Let’s be fair, Cha, number of targets is dependent on how many times the opposing offense passed. Our passing defense faced the 10th fewest passing attempts in the league, but not because our passing defense was that good, but rather because our rushing defense was that poor. Let’s look at “When the opposing team threw, how often did they throw to your side”.
        The most targeted CB that started 17 games was Roger McCreary at 108. He was targeted 16% of the time that Titans’ opponents threw.
        Tariq’s percentage? 14%
        Pat Surtain, who faced more targets that Tariq? 12%

        • cha

          PFR has

          Woolen 12.1%
          Surtain 12.7%

          Not sure you may be using PFF or something else. PFR has always been more reliable IMO.

          • Hawkdawg

            Tariq Woolen had every bit of the year Sherman had as a rookie, and more. He has better natural physical tools than Sherman, as Sherman himself will say. He had one hell of a rookie year, and by all accounts his devotion to improvement is very high. Therefore there is no reason to suspect his development will tail off. Plus, he is super cheap for the next few years. He is perhaps the single defensive player it is least reasonable to worry about right now.

      • 12th chuck

        another reason the numbers might drop, we might actually get a pass rush going next year, or the defense is actually playing better or…. still can’t stop the run, and teams cram the ball up the middle more and not pass as much.,

    • bmseattle

      He’s also had several near (or shoulda been) interceptions.
      I remember a couple where he was hit by another teammate while he was trying to catch the ball, only to have it knocked away.

      I’m not ready to call him elite yet, but he’s been around the ball *a lot* this year. His coverage skills are very good, and should (hopefully) get even better as he gains experience.

  28. Trevor

    Watching Stetson Bennett scoot around and drip dimes last night all I could think was my god I hope Kyle Shanahan doesn’t get this guy.

  29. Ukhawk

    Rob. If we already had a QB in place hypothetically who would u take at 5?

    • Rob Staton

      Well we don’t so why think about it?

  30. Volume12

    I wanna see how Dylan Horton measures. 6’4, 275. Rumored to run in the 4.5s, 38″ vert, 10″ broad. 10 sacks this year and was dominant against Michigan.

    Keion White is 6’5-6’6, 290, long/lean, and can cover RBs on wheel routes? Insane athleticism.

    Depending on how both test and/or look @ the SR bowl, they can be had a round or 2 later.

    Having said that, if Seattle ‘loved’ Noah Fant, I wonder how they feel about Michael Mayer? Would give us 3 legit weapons in the passing game and could be had after a small trade back. Good value imo.

    • Rob Staton

      Carroll was signing Mayer’s praises with the way he played against USC a few weeks ago

      But then I think 32/32 teams will love Michael Mayer

      • Volume12

        Agreed. Could see Dan Campbell being in love w/ him.

    • Volume12

      This is why I think its dumb that players have to play 3 years. It hurt Will Anderson and Marvin Harrison, jr and Brock Bowers are 2 legit top 5 talents that cant help a team because of age? Stupid.

    • Ukhawk

      Great shout on Keoin White, Volume12, he looks really interesting and maybe big enough to play in a 3-4 too?

  31. Rob Staton

    So here’s an interesting thing to note.

    Last April, Jalen Carter did a press conference. In it he was asked this opening question:

    “Coach (Kirby) Smart was just in here talking about how he wants you to step up as a leader, work on conditioning…”

    Carter answered like this:

    “I’ve started running more after practise and all that because they told me I could be a top-10 pick and all that, so I’ve done a lot that I didn’t usually do my freshman year and I’ve just been working harder.”

    Here’s the press conference in full: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PT6RSe0QMPw

    So conditioning was highlighted by the coach nearly a year ago. Carter admitted he had to do more and supposedly was doing more because he wanted to be a top-10 pick. Then in the games, we see him looking absolutely exhausted and his conditioning looks dreadful.

    How is that not a concern? He clearly didn’t follow through with the nudge to work on conditioning despite saying he was doing more.

    Adding this note to the piece.

    • Matt

      “You’re just a hater.”

      I want no part of this dude in the top 10. Again, on what planet will he suddenly become motivated AFTER getting 10s of millions of dollars? Someone needs to explain this to me like I’m 5.

    • cha

      I couldn’t watch the whole video.

      I was too distracted by the fact he was bone-dry at the start and 3 minutes in he’s sweating like crazy.

      There’s a joke to be made there about his conditioning, I know it.

      Unfair? Absolutely. Put a young man in front of reporters and he might very well get nervous. Maybe it’s 97 degrees with 90 percent humidity that day.

      It just struck me.

  32. Jordan

    The Jalen Carter concerns have me re-reading the negatives on the Chris Jones draft profiles. Some similar sentiments, but Carter isn’t gonna be available at the same discounted price.

    Maybe he puts it all together, but maybe he’s Nick Fairley.

    • Peter

      That’s it in a nutshell for me. If Carter were available in the 18-22 range I’d probably shut up about it.

      But since he “has,” to be taken or else apparently by us no later than five I’m supremely skeptical.

      • Matt

        Exactly where I’m at too. I am more than ok taking risks – but this is a top 5 pick. Effort is a risk I’m not willing to take that high. To your point, 18-22 – hell yea I’ll take a chance.

        But again…passing on an equally talented QB that doesn’t have work ethic issues is just a non-starter for me.

  33. Blitzy the Clown

    Rob, may I just say I’m really loving the 30,000 ft view of this article

    Anthony Richardson at 5, please and thank you

  34. Scot04

    On the 7th I predicted my worse case scenario.
    Looks very likely now.
    Carter news just seems to continue to grow & disappoint.
    If it ends up this way; I’d definitely have to go with Bryce Young over Carter with our #5 pick.
    Although much like Rob, I’m fine with any of the 4 QBs at this point.
    Will be interesting to see how things change after the combine & pro-days.

  35. StevenD


    Part of the conversation regarding drafting a QB is obviously about Geno. Rob’s point being, ‘hey, even if you re-sign Geno, still good to have an up-and-comer in training.’ Agree. Even with a rookie contract clock ticking…still agree. But, with both Geno maybe coming back and Drew on the roster? We arguably have two better QBs than a Houston or an Indy.

    I know, I know… Drew sucks, blah blah. But what were all of us saying pre-season? Geno’s bad at best and Drew, could be…maybe mediocre? That would be interesting. I agreed with Rob and others at the time that had written off Geno, didn’t think much of Drew and we’re eagerly waiting to trade up to take a QB in ’23.

    But what did the ’22 season teach all of us? Maybe maturity, the right environment and some time with the playbook can make a big difference in QB performance? And maybe previous QB wash outs aren’t necessarily wash outs in a different situation?

    Not saying Geno’s a world beater, but clearly he’s above average and if the Hawks don’t resign him, another team gladly will. So, if we were willing to roll the dice on Drew over Geno pre-season – maybe with another year or so of tutelage/maturity, Drew could end up being better than merely mediocre?

    Just saying… We’ve seemingly resuscitated one rough diamond. Maybe we have 2?

    While I agree that we shouldn’t forgo the option of a QB because of Geno, would we pass on one because we have both Geno/Drew?

    • JimN

      Agree with you. We will see what happens when it is time for FA signings. The coaches have seen what he can and can’t do. I have maintained that Locke has of yet no real flat playing field opportunity to show what he can do. Greatest example is of Geno. Played at a pro bowl level this year. How did we all miss that coming around the bend? Nothing for his period as a backup, and even we were not convinced he should start on opening day. Not saying this is the true state of things, and that lightning can’t strike a third time (Russ was a surprise too don’t forget).

      Still believe we should get one of the 4 QB’s if available. I also can’t see us paying Geno 30 M when we could perhaps use that in the trenches in FA?

      • BK26

        Russ shouldn’t have been a surprise if you watched him play in college. Geno showed talent in college. Lock threw the ball a lot. I don’t want to bank any future of the team on a kid that couldn’t play for a team that was starving for a quarterback. I don’t want to go into next year with a “ maybe he isn’t as bad as he’s looked.” He was drafted to play and couldn’t keep the job.

        No more trying to get cheap and cute. Put someone who a rookie can learn from. Whether it’s Geno (who isn’t going to cost 30 million no matter how many times people say it), or another veteran. They need to get better talent at the position.

    • JP

      Drew Lock couldn’t beat out the guy we’re trying to replace to begin with. Neither one of these guys should stand in the way of taking Stroud or some such.

      • Spectator

        Your knocking Lock because the couldnt beat out a player that played into receiving Pro-Bowl? The reason to replace Geno isnt exactly because of how he played… it is more related to his age and the fact he likely reached his ceiling.

        If Stroud, Levis, Richardson are available, we need to draft them. But your argument is dumb for knocking Lock, is just dumb.

  36. Ian

    Anderson, Levis, Richardson, Stroud, Young…anyone we’d NOT be happy with at #5?

    • bmseattle

      At this point, those are the 5, and I’m hoping we end up with one of them.

      I prefer a QB, and I’m not sold on Young, so Anderson/Young would be me 4th/5th choice.
      Really, I’d be thrilled with either of Levis, Richardson or Stroud. I’d probably rank them as I wrote them, tho.

    • Big Boi

      Statistically, only 2 of the 5 will go on to have pro bowls or be considered resounding successes. 1 will be a bust and the rest will be so-so. No way to tell which ones it will be, unfortunately. That’s the double edged sword of picking top 5.

    • Hebegbs

      I’m just glad we only slipped to 5 and not to 6. Feels like a pretty major difference with the Carter concerns.

  37. DC1234

    I think the outcome of this game on Saturday will determine the direction Seahawks will take in the offseason.

    If they lose and get embarrassed/bullied (which i expect) by the niners. And Geno plays poorly, maybe Pete and John know they are far from contending. And thus, they will draft a qb with the fifth pick, because they know Geno is not the answer.

    If they keep the game close and competitive, and the niners pull away in the fourth quarter; Pete might believe they are close. And thus will draft DL with the fifth pick and sign Geno to a big contract.

  38. Rob Staton

    Added these 2022 pressure rates to the article:

    • Laiatu Latu: 22.6%
    • Jared Verse: 17.1%
    • Tyree Wilson: 16.7%
    • Will Anderson: 16%
    • Andre Carter: 15.7%
    • BJ Ojulari: 13.7%
    • Zach Harrison: 13.3%
    • Myles Murphy: 10%
    • Isaiah Foskey: 9.9%

    • Justaguy

      Willie A would be a consolation prize. Let’s be real, unlike #Seahawks12, and the reality is this team needs a franchise quarterback. I doubt we get our guy “ahem Will Levis”, but Richardson is the future of the NFL and is very much in the #5 wheelhouse. Rob has made it clear that there are options in the late first and early second to improve the defense. Let’s make the Russ trade potentially the best trade in franchise history and take a chance on a freak stud quarterback. Cheers to our best hope for the future!
      Also, I am with Robbie and think the Cubs are very interested in Bijan Robinson and will trade out of #1 if they can still get their guy. I still pound the table for Bijan if Hawks stupidly trade back from #5 and Calijah Kancey with the other 1st round pick.

  39. Scot04

    Just noticed our effective cap space for this year is down to 30M
    Subtracting IR & other typical expenses I believe that puts us at around 23M to spend.

    • Rob Staton

      I think effective cap space already takes IR etc into account

      • cha

        It doesn’t.

  40. DK

    As has been mentioned before there is this group of delusional Seahawks fan who think the Hawks can rebuild the defense and they are an instant Super Bowl contender. They have this crazy idea that adding an impact D-linemen is this sure thing, when 1st round d-linemen tend to have a pretty high bust rate as well. What makes me laugh is a lot of these people are the people who get upset when the team drafts for need versus best player available.

    Anderson would be great in the old defensive scheme as the LEO position that Clemons and Avril used to man. But Carter for me in a guy that screams bust. There is a reason teams are always looking for top level defensive tackles, it’s because there just aren’t many out there. Taking a chance on a guy who knows his conditioning is an issue but didn’t take it serious enough in the offseason.

    I would be totally happy with Richardson or Levis at 5, and am warming up to Stroud as well after his performance against Georgia. I just think Richardson and Levis have experience in a more pro style system and will have a less steep learning curve.

    I remember watching the draft last year and they called out Jordan Davis for his conditioning and said that is something he needed to work on. I am curious as to it being more that Georgia has such great depth at DT they rotate guys more frequently which covers up some of the conditioning issues.

    • Justaguy

      I agree with all of this but it is very likely Stroud and Levis are going to be the top two picks. That puts the Hawks in a terrible position because Anderson could go third. Richardson might go 4th…

  41. Olyhawksfan

    To contribute to the Woolen discussion. I’m NOT an expert but he seemed to pass the eye test. Some of his pass break ups where he is clearly beat, then accelerates to catch up to the ball and make a play is crazy. I also remember a play where he breaks form his man to make a play on the ball on another receiver. Think it was the Panthers game. I’m very excited to see where his skills can take him.

    • Denver Hawker

      In short, he’s a prospect. Rob had him R2 (which has shown to be justified), he needs work still, but a fine season. Any claims that he’s an elite corner this year are ignoring some shortcomings. He has all the potential to be an elite corner and fans should be really excited about him. Possibly best pick of the entire draft. Sauce was better this year, but that’s not a slight to Woolen in any way.

      • Justaguy

        If you are going to call someone out for their “shortcomings” you should at least provide your insight. Just saying… kind of a dick move not to

  42. ShowMeYourHawk

    From the “Rob Staton in the Darkest Timeline” mock draft yesterday, PFF mocks us Myles Murphy at #5 and Kelee Ringo at #20. 🤷🏽🤣


    • Denver Hawker


      • JJ

        I have seen mocks where they give us Murphy with Stroud still available.

    • Ben

      If there are still two QBs available at 5 and for whatever dumb reason we don’t want one, we better trade out of that stupid spot as fast as possible. That’d be wild!

      If we can’t have a blue chip player, at least take advantage of the bidding war. Hell even the Jets could come up to 5.

    • Rob Staton

      I need a lie down after seeing that

  43. Seahawkwalt

    If the Texans go qb, then they may consider trading Davis Mills. He could be our bridge if Geno tries to bend us over. I believe he was highly thought of on SDB.

    • Steve Nelsen

      Look for QBs who have experience in this system when evaluating potential FA bridge QBs. I don’t know who they are other than Geno and Drew but they will be at the top of the lust.

  44. Hughz

    I remember JS saying he’s regretted not investing draft capital in the QB position. This is something they routinely did at GB. Hopefully he remembers this come late April.

    • Denver Hawker

      All Seahawks nation will do a little dance for a few months debating and arguing for clicks, but JS has been waiting his entire tenure for this moment- IMO he is 100%, without a doubt, getting his QB this year.

      • Justaguy

        It could be the only way to get “his QB” is to trade up. Are you suggesting that you think this is 💯

        • Denver Hawker

          I don’t rule it out at all, but think price is steep for #1, Texans don’t need to trade down, Cards won’t trade with us, and Colts want a QB so it appears unlikely you’ll happen.

          I just mean JS will take the opportunity to draft a QB early which he’s never been able to do. I’m not saying he’ll necessarily get his first choice.

          • Justaguy

            I don’t understand you and your definitive statements then. My apologies

      • Peter

        Didn’t he draft “his,” qb from Wisconsin and then get Seattle to a superbowl?

        • Justaguy

          What are you even suggesting? Do you think “his guy” will be falling to the 3rd round? I don’t think a guy from Wisconsin was the only reason for a Super Bowl win but he did have something to do with it. This defense is a long way off from those days. Maybe “his guy” is Stetson Bennett in the third round. Maybe you would believe in it. Maybe you believe frogs fly

          • Peter

            Hey if you don’t think wilson was John’s guy I literally do not know how to dialog this with you.

            Frogs, third rounders, etc, etc.

            The reality is the fifth pick will unlikely be anyone’s preferred guy. But rather the best of who is left.

            • Rob Staton

              Josh Allen was apparently John’s guy and he was the third QB taken and went at #7

              • Peter

                Sure there’s a chance of that.

                There’s a chance that indy, Vegas all move ahead of us and the qb left you hope is the guy because that’s all that’s left standing.

                • Peter

                  I just hope Stroud, levis, or richardson is there at #5. And I’m having doubts that with the strongest qb class in a while coupled with more than a few teams that have been living in qb purgatory for ages that might not be possible.

                • Rob Staton

                  Or the guy you want lasts and you party

                  • Peter


                    But this is broadly more about “oh thank the stars above js FINALLY gets to draft HIS guy…” I guess I’m not sure how he finally does that at five after a decade plus on the job.

                    Every draft in every round you should be striving to get YOUR guy.

                    • Rob Staton

                      But again, if we were picking at five in 2017 or 2018 he would’ve got ‘his guy’.

  45. 805Hawk

    In respect to Geno, I’m a little concerned, considering how long he’s taken to sign in the past, that he will be negotiating with Seattle for weeks after free agency opens. Meanwhile, JS/PC will hold off jumping into the FA pool in hopes of signing him and not wanting to use up cap space. If Geno ultimately ends up elsewhere, all the quality free agents will have signed and we will be left with the bargain bin. This happened with Clowney and other FAs if I recall correctly. I want us to draft a QB with that 5th puck, but I also want to use the cap effectively and I just hope whatever happens, it’s not drawn out.

    • Cysco

      I’m not super concerned about it. There’s some risk, sure, but I think things are very different when we’re talking starting QB roles.

      When you’re a back-up, you can get away with waiting to the last minute to sign somewhere. There will always be teams looking for a backup or an upgrade to what they have. I think things get very different when you start talking about QB1.

      Team’s aren’t going to wait. It’s the most important position on the team and teams are going to want to lock that position down quickly. If Geno decides to do his usual and wait til the end of the offseason, he’s only doing Seattle a favor because there are likely to be no other suitors for him if he waits it out.

      Even then, Seattle may also just move on if he drags his feet. It’s one thing to pencil in a few $mil for a backup. It’s a whole different world when we’re talking making cap space for $20mil+.

      If Geno does drag his feet signing, he could easily find himself with no starting job at all. I suspect he’ll sign somewhere pretty quickly.

      • cha


        • cha

          I think there is a very healthy discussion to be had about signing Lock early on and going to Geno and saying “We have Lock we feel comfortable with, we have the #5 pick and can get a QB, here is our best offer. You know what you have here, we’d prefer you be here but we can’t break the bank for you.” And give him the best offer.

          If he waffles, they move on.

          The possibility the Seahawks get a juicy 3rd round comp pick in 2024 for him is good. Not great, but good.

          • Rob Staton

            Great plan IMO

            • Blitzy the Clown


          • DougM

            Because he is a 10 year veteran, I think the best comp pick is round 5

            • cha

              I love that you’re in that deep that you know this DougM.

              That is true for all positions except QB. The 2020 CBA carved out an exception for them.

  46. Old but Slow

    Rob, you have had a very good handle on what types of players the Seahawks like, noting standards such as arm length, 40 times and so on. Recently, Pete seems to have eased off some, as he has accepted defensive backs who did not fit the mold.

    Might we see some loosening of some of the other standards? My interest stems from what I am seeing in Kancey. He seems completely out of the mold, but his uncanny ways are hard to ignore. Short arms for a defensive lineman means giving up leverage, but a player like Kancey does not rely on power and leverage as much as he uses quickness and elusiveness.

    Personally I find the standards somewhat limiting even if some of them make sense.

    • Justaguy

      🤞the old man retires. Jokes aside it is time for change. Calijah Kancey is a BAMF in my opinion. It might take awhile for him to adjust to the NFL but he will be a force for years injuries withstanding

    • Rob Staton

      Some limitations are more important than others though and being able to leverage up front and stay clean is vital.

      Plus Hurtt only this season did an interview talking about the importance of length for D liners

  47. Hoggs41

    I still think Richardson is going to be the pick unless he goes 1-4. Seems to perfect if you can sign Geno to a 2-3 year deal.

  48. KennyBadger

    Out of the top 6 I really hope the choice at 5 isn’t between carter and young. If the bears make a trade, hopefully it’s to 4. They’d go D and at least increase chances of 2 qbs at 5.

    • bmseattle

      I agree with all that.
      My big fear is that that is our choice at 5

  49. Romeo A57

    You guys are all wrong. Richardson is going #1 overall and some of us like Robbie are getting paid 💵

    • Palatypus

      Well, if he works out at the combine and runs under 4.4, has 42-inch vertical, broad jumps 11 feet, puts the bar up 25 times or more, runs the short shuttle in under 4.0, gets a three-cone time under 7.0, and the 60-yard shuttle in 11 seconds (which he probably won’t do.) It would be an absolute certainty, providing he throws well at the combine.

      And I think he can do these things.

    • Big Mike

      No offense, but I want him for the Hawks so I want you guys to not win $

      • Rokas

        in such case, Big Mike, you will be punished for acting against the financial wellness of SDB community in a following way:

        Seahawks are gonna trade up to to No.1 and draft Anthony Richardson.

        • Big Mike

          Hurt me some more with some of that please

  50. Hoggs41

    Anyone really studied Drew Sanders? Kind of feels like a poor mans Micah Parsons. Intriguing prospect.

  51. Steven W

    Thinking of how we should probably move on from our safties, can you do an in-depth on the ones you like in the draft? Where they might go and some options as you see it?

  52. Turnagaintide

    You were spot on last year with Malik Willis and Desmond Ridder while the media had it wrong up until they got drafted in the 3rd were you were saying they should be drafted. It seems like the media is now compensating for last year’s horrendous miss on the QBs by categorizing Anthony Richardson with the QBs who fell last year.

    If the Seahawks get Richardson at 5 I’d be jumping for joy knowing the Seahawks could have their QB of the long term future.

    Great investigative journalism Rob! I don’t want to draft Jalen Carter anymore- too many red flags.

    • Rob Staton

      Thank you 👍🏻

  53. STTBM

    Right on, Rob. Excellent reasoning.

    For myself, I can’t see drafting any of the Defensive players in this draft when it’s our best shot to get a Top, Franchise QB. You CANT pass up this opportunity! Geno is 33, and rightfully wants to get paid. Carrol will likely prefer to pay him and improve around him, setting us up for long-term pain.

    Hopefully JS and “Ownership” insist on doing what it takes to get Stroud, Levi’s, or Richardson. Even if they swing and miss, you can’t justify not even trying, just for a short future with Geno running PeteBall.

    At 34 by next season, Geno will likely regress due to age, injury, or just Teams studying film and learning how to impact his play. We’ve already seen this happen, as Geno crashed and burned performance-wise over the second half of the season.

    I’m perfectly happy with the idea of letting Geno leave and going with Lock or some other bargain QB while a rookie learns. I’d rather that than another season like this, backing into the playoffs having beaten two teams with a winning record, having lost all but one game when trailing at halftime, and having two game winning drives in 17 games.
    And then watching the qbs we passed on possibly grow into great players for the next decade, while Geno’s play disintegrates to age and injury.

  54. BobbyK

    Honest Question:

    If any of you became the GM of an NFL franchise, would you in all seriousness, sign Geno Smith for $20-$30 million per season?

    The Seattle media kisses his ass just as they did for Wilson (and fool others into believing them). In the real world, outside of the fantasyland in Renton, the media investigates and reports news, generally (less so these days). That’s why so many people nationally have made fun of Wilson this past year and it’s not just because he was losing.

    Geno was jettisoned from the Jets because he was a douchebag that some teammates hated. Hell, he got punched in the jaw from a teammate he tried to screw over financially because, hey, “he’s Geno Smiff.”

    Okay, fine, Geno was a kid back then.

    Then PLEASE explain to me him getting caught drunk and driving almost 100 mph less than a year ago and being an A-hole to the cops as a “man” over 30-years old? I want to know how he’s such a great leader and good person we should all adore and should throw lots of money at to be a bridge.

    Nobody hated Tarvaris Jackson more than me because I knew what kind of person he was from his Minnesota days. I hate Geno even worse. This season has been terrible for me personally because I believe your QB should be a role model and an example for others. I know there are terrible people in every occupation but I don’t want it at QB of my favorite team… any other position, fine. I get it. Not QB.

    I’m normally not the “trade up” kind of guy… but I really want Anthony Richardson. I’m going to be so disappointed/sad it we can’t get him the more I study his games. I’d take him if I were the Bears and try to get what I could for Fields.

    I know the Geno quote is funny, but I don’t think he can write back because he’s too much of a moron. Let’s get Saturday over with so the world can see how bad we suck in the trenches and what a fraud Geno is… and lets get to the off-season so we can have hope again with this plethora of picks we’ve finally got coming. Either you legitimately compete for the Super Bowl or you don’t. This team has no chance and we all know it.

    • Big Mike

      I wouldn’t give him more than 15ish.

      • Big Mike

        And I would make it easy to get out after next season particularly assuming the Hawke draft one of the top 4 quarterbacks. If he wasn’t willing to play under those terms and one of those quarterbacks was drafted Lock would be my bridge

      • Matt

        Bobby…I wish I had the courage to write this. I’m so GD sick of the “so happy for Geno. Couldn’t happen to a better guy.” He’s only an “underdog” because his own actions put him there. He was a highly touted prospect that fell in the draft because of character. That character has played our over his 10 years in the NFL.

        Did he have a good season? Yes, very. But we have a decade of history on the guy, who will be 33 and it just astounds me that people don’t even want to entertain the idea of addressing QB *without having to trade or leverage future draft capital*. That is so so so rare. And…we still have another 1st to address and “immediate need.” It just makes too much sense.

        I do find a little humor in the “Geno is a great guy” people also seem to be the “Jalen Carter is Aaron Donald” people.

        • BobbyK


        • BobbyK

          Best case scenario, imo, is for the Seahawks to give Lock a 1-year deal and draft Richardson (QB will cost almost nothing re: salary cap). Lock has demonstrated much more upside at this point in his career than Geno did at the same age. Lock will also be much, much cheaper.

          My gut tells me if Lock hadn’t gotten Covid that he’d have been the starter this past season. I have nothing to base that on, but it is what it is.

          • BK26

            I’ll disagree with that. Lock Lock has shown that he was no more than a throw-in in the trade. I’d rather we sign someone else than even bring him back. No example of who, but at least someone that has shown to be capable or even average. His upside is to be a career backup at this point.

            I don’t want pressure on a rookie that needs to sit to be pushed into starting because Lock is either throwing interceptions or incompletions all over the place. The rookie needs someone to learn from or to be an example.

            Lock couldn’t beat anyone in Denver. I don’t want other teams’ cast offs as any part of this team’s future. It stinks, but best for the team is to probably bring Geno back. He isn’t going to break the bank. He’s shown that he isn’t worth that financial risk for a team to take.

            All my opinion as well.

          • DougM

            I appreciate your comments and find myself agreeing with them most of the time.

    • Scot04

      I think 20M is about where I max out at. It makes him the 17th highest paid, ahead of Jameis Winston & Mariota.
      Do I think some team could pay more? Yes
      Garoppolo was at 27.5M & Tannehill is a 29.5M
      Heck even after Garoppolo restructured his contract it had incentives up to 16M if he became the starter.
      Tannehill could be a post June 1st cut to save 27M
      So if we somehow got him at 15M per, on a 3yr deal; I’d be all in.
      Will be an interesting offseason for QBs.
      Regardless I hope we draft one at #5.

    • 805Hawk

      1000% this! I couldn’t agree more. If I hear “Geno is such a class act!” Or “I’m so happy for Geno! He’s such a great guy and teammate!” I think I might punch myself in the throat. Having just finished a career in law enforcement, his conduct during the DUI really got under my skin. I hate being a hater but I have a really hard time rooting for Geno. I want to root for my QB. It was nice actually going to a couple games (at SoFi) where I was far enough up that he was just another jersey and I didn’t have to hear about Geno from the broadcasters every two minutes.

  55. Wade

    I ordinarily agree with Rob, but this feels a bit off the mark to me…

    The reason for Richardson’s perceived “risk” is mostly positional. The best QBs carry a team. The worst sink it for years.

    If Richardson “busts”, you either ruin your playoff chances experimenting (which you’ll need to do eventually considering he’d be 1.5) or pay $30m for a backup QB. If Carter busts, you have a low-end lineman. The former gets front offices and coaches fired. The latter gives them another few years to sort out the QB position.

    There are 32 jobs for starting QBs. Many more for low-end DLmen. That said, QBs come with significant upside. Hence the risk.

    I personally love Richardson and hope he’s there at 1.5. But I also understand why the Seahawks would go in a risk-averse direction.

    • Mick

      But you should play the probabilities game to the end. You can’t start Geno forever, and considering how he’s played since München, you don’t want to start him much longer. Then what’s better, taking a shot on a QB at #5 or taking a shot on a QB next year in the range #12 – #20? Or should we wait on drafting a QB until we are so terrible that we get the #1 pick? I would say this is the year that we can afford rolling the dice on a QB while still having a lot of other picks to improve the roster win-now style. Levis/Richardson/Stroud and Siaki Ika seems a better bet than Carter.

      • BobbyK


        • Big Mike

          And ditto for me as well Mick. The key is having a lot of other picks. It allows you to still address numerous other areas.
          As for being risk averse, that’s what mediocrity does. KC traded up for Mahomes which was risky. So did SF with Lance and so far that was a miss. None the less, even if he never pans out I admire the home run swing. Sitting around wringing your hands for what could go wrong is weak.

      • Wade

        Probably wasn’t clear. I hope the Seahawks do take Richardson #5.

        My disagreement with Rob lies in his portrayal of folks who don’t want to draft a QB. It’s easy to knock down a strawman. He seems to categorize the anti-QB argument as “Richardson is rawer than Carter” (which is false) rather than “it’s risky to draft a QB” (which has merit). The second argument is mostly floated by people who think the Seahawks are close enough to a finished product to start putting the icing on the cake.

        I’d rather we accept that the playoffs this year are a product of an easy schedule and some luck and swing for the fences with this draft

    • Romeo A57

      Almost every NFL Championship team has a Quarterback that is elite level or close. If you look at each division, the team with the best QB usually wins it. The best way to get a high level QB is through a high draft pock even though the odds of that QB becoming elite is low.

      We can all mostly agree that Geno has been good this year but isn’t ever going to be considered a top QB. With average QBs making over 30M per year and elite QBs making over 50M per year, drafting a QB on the rookie scale becomes even more financially sound. Especially if you consider when would the Seahawks have a Top 5 pick again when there are 4 QBs coming out who could merit a First Round grade.

      It could be years or decades when Seattle could be in this position again to draft a top QB prospect again.

    • Rob Staton

      But Wade, this is an extreme negative view.

      Richardson could be only a decent QB, just as Carter may only be a decent DL

      That’s not a disaster is it?

      • Wade

        He could very well be worse than decent. You’ve shown us the bust rate of first rounders. Zach Wilson has been *ugly*.

        And Geno is decent and it’s not getting the hawks past the first round.

        • Rob Staton

          Again, why are you just immediately resorting to the worst case scenario?

          Your argument is: “this player might be really bad! But this other player might just be average. So that’s better”

          There’s no difference. It’s not ‘elite franchise QB’ or ‘epic bust’ as the only two options, thus DL better.

          Yeah, Zach Wilson has flopped. Joe Burrow hasn’t. My counter to this might as well be ‘Josh Allen exists’. It’s not much of a debate

          • DC1234

            I think you have to take a account what situation the rookie QB will come into.

            Seahawks will have a improved Oline, walker III, DK, Tyler, bunch of TE.

            That is way better than the teams drafting in the top 4.

            Also Pete put Russ in a good situation to grow into a franchise QB. Geno had some success this year.

            I believe Richardson will work here in seattle.

            You cant be afraid a top pick qb will bust and not try and draft one. The reward for a franchise qb is so much greater than a top interior DL.

            • Rob Staton

              You cant be afraid a top pick qb will bust and not try and draft one. The reward for a franchise qb is so much greater than a top interior DL.


    • Pran

      Many top 10 draft picks bust..QB or DL does not matter. What is the risk reward ratio here for both positions then?
      QBs go at a premium than DL 99% of the time which is why you must roll the dice when you get a chance. getting a franchise QB outside of top 10 is even more crap shoot.

      looking at playoff teams, all the top QBs are picked in top 10.
      Mahomes, Herbert, Burrow, Lawrence, Tua. Jones is another top 5 pick. Josh allen 17th pick. Lamar late first.

      8 out of 14 QBs are picked in 1st round. 2 more picked in R2.

    • Wade

      And crushed by Purdy 🙁

    • Mick

      The only playoff teams we beat this years are the Giants and the Chargers. I wouldn’t call either contenders, more happen to get there. Let’s count the Lions, who didn’t make it, but they also feature Jared Goff at QB. We won against the Rams twice, in our trademark style just barely, in a season when everything went wrong for them. Against the serious teams, 49ers, Chiefs, even Bucs, we were no contest. So the accomplishment of the year is winning against Wilson. Unless magic happens on Saturday.

      • BobbyK

        The only way we get magic Saturday is if the 49ers overlook us. Then we can put this worthless season to rest that Mr. Happy and Bubbly people would say is a “success.” Losers tend to not care about real championships, but winners tend to judge life based on either realistically competing for championships or not.

        • UkAlex6674

          ‘Worthless season’?

          • BobbyK

            Is the Super Bowl realistic?




            • BobbyK

              You’re either building for something realistic or just appeasing fans and carrrying the torch of worthlessness. To me there’s no difference between 5-12 and 9-8. Sorry if you feel differently and love the “everyone gets a trophy” mantra of these days.

              • Matt

                “Did we just become best friends? Yep!”

                Couldn’t agree more. The yearning to be average or slightly above will never cease to amaze me with this fanbase. I am more than ok with a bad win-loss record if there is a coherent plan towards building a contender.

                The analogy I have is that the Seahawks are like that Securite corporate job that you just dread going to everyday. BUT, you convince yourself it’s ok because of the security and “the paycheck isn’t great, but it’s not bad either.” It’s comfortable. That’s been the state of this franchise for a long time now – comfortable, unchallenged, status quo, don’t upset the apple cart, “it could be worse!” All weak sh*t, IMO.

                • Matt

                  *secure not Securite…what a weird ass autocorrect on my phone.

              • Jordan

                I don’t think the Super Bowl was a realistic proposition this season; and yes, that should be the goal every season. But building in increments and showing forward progress is important.

                Going into the season, Rob and others were saying that the wins and losses weren’t as important. What was important was progress forward and the emergence of new young pieces.

                The first season of the post-Russ reset featuring a winning record, playoff berth, great draft class with new starters at LT,RT,RB,CB1 and NCB, 9.5 sacks from Taylor, a new Pro Bowl QB – that’s an objectively positive first step in the reset. I would argue that that exceeded all possible expectations. A top 5 pick from the Broncos is a bonus on top.

                There can be worthless seasons, but this isn’t one of them – any season where you flip from below .500 and miss the dance to above .500 and in the dance, and have a Pro Bowl QB emerge can’t be worthless. 2010-12 weren’t worthless just because they didn’t win the Super Bowl those seasons. I don’t think Buffalo has been having worthless seasons just because they aren’t winning Super Bowls.

                I think there’s a different between worthless and being frustrated that the Seahawks have left some meat on the bone this season after the 6-3 start.

                • Matt

                  Nobody expected a Super Bowl. That’s not what we are saying. There are a lot of positives this year. There are also a lot of ugly, recurring issues that don’t look like they will be addressed.

                  The concern most of us have is that we are yet again, falling into the same trap of “”no see, we are close – therefore we just need to keep doing the same thing (that hasn’t worked for years).”

                  That’s the crux of the issue here. Combine that with a good chunk of the fanbase that thinks we are budding SB contenders and can’t fathom the idea of making a long term investment (at QB).

                  The other part of this…the competitive advantage evaporates if you hand Geno a big contract…which is no different than what happened in the RW era, that the Cult of Geno cried about until it was Geno being discussed for said contract.

                  We saw a lot of promising young rookie play. We also saw the usual “we wish he got more playing time” from the guy who controls playing time.

                  Again – there are a lot of positives this year but we are yet again flirting with what out us here in the first place – “status quo.”

              • Blitzy the Clown

                I don’t mean to be harsh BobbyK, but I think your perspective what makes a season worthwhile is a very shallow and transactional one.

                Sure, wins are important. But becoming a champion is journey. Not an act.

                As such, it takes time and can (and usually does) go beyond any one single season.

                Becoming a champion also a process of becoming better in every way. A better athlete. A better teammate. A better human.

                I know you understand this because your comments over the years about the people you know who are personally are involved in this process demonstrate you do.

              • TJ

                So, if they aren’t S.B. contenders should they just lay down and give up because the games don’t matter? I’m not sure what the alternative is that you imply exists. The goal is to win. They don’t have the talent to win the Super Bowl, but they finished with a winning regular season record – winning more than they lost and exceeding expectations. I doubt that the players would agree that their season was worthless. I would also say that this current rookie class qualifies as “building for something realistic.”

                • Peter

                  That’s just it though.

                  Winning more than they lost. Exceeding expectations.

                  I know Bobbyk can be coarse but there should be some accountability going the other way.

                  As in….why are we just happy to exceed expectations when it is literally the sane two guys year over year at the helm. The very two guys that built this team into a preseason over/under 5.5 wins. And we act like hot damn we did it!

                  Did what exactly?

                  I know every year can’t be the superbowl. But as we get ready for a playoff game I don’t think this year is any closer to one than any year before it after losing to the patriots.

                  I know I’m in the minority here. But I’m not a flag shagger that thinks every win is an amazing accomplishment. Beat the niners…heck yeah I’d live to see it….but there is such a thing as beating teams you should beat.

                  I just don’t get up like some fans for beating the collapsing rams or the pathetic 2021 lions to end the season. I’m honestly sick of seeing the same season over and over.

                  • UkAlex6674

                    ‘beating the teams you should beat’

                    Have we learnt nothing about the NFL in all our many collective years watching it? If it was that easy everyone would be doing it!

                    Every fan of every team wants to win the Superbowl at the start of the season. Just because they don’t it doesn’t always equate to a worthless season, not by a long shot. I think we are all fed up of one and done in the playoffs, and I think every fan of every team would be.

                    Let’s just ask – we take Richardson at QB in the draft and he leads us to the playoffs at 9-8 to get dumped out at WC round due to some rookie errors.

                    Worthless season or progressive season?

                  • TJ

                    I’m not necessarily disagreeing. I want the team to be better than they are. I have been, and continue to be, disappointed by all the wasted draft choices, wasted free agency dollars, and other poor decisions. I’m tired of the team treading water. My comment was directed at “wasted season.”

                    Mountains are climbed one step at a time. Did this team move closer to the mountain top than we all expected? I would say so. They are nowhere near the top, but most of us expected them to struggle to make it to base camp 1 and they made it past base camp 2. The rookie class, which is part of the long-term foundation of this roster, far exceed expectations. The Wilson trade was part of this season, and netted the team some awesome draft capital. It could change the fortunes of the franchise for the next decade.

                    Even in a disappointing season, I saw enough positives to think “wasted season” is a ridiculously over-the-top characterization of the year.

                  • Peter

                    Ukalex and tj…

                    I actually do not think of it as a wasted season.

                    But I’m not there on a progressive season.

                    We all watched this team actually be statistically better in recent years but it not to amount to much.

                    UKalex. Of course you’re right about were it easy to win everyone would do it. But that’s why I’m hesitant on the direction of this team. Sure any given Sunday and all that. But tge good teams are actually beating the bad teams. And then there’s us. Kind of rudderless having our hands full at times with some miserable opponents. Raiders, nfc South. Inculding the bucs these are all pretty bad teams. Split the wins with just that lowly division and we look a damn sight better.

                    The niners and the chiefs had super easy schedules but they both did what we didn’t which was pick off the gimme’s as the season went on.

                    I’m very intrigued by the draft. But overall I’m not there yet feeling like I’m seeing anything really different than I have for about five years.

            • UkAlex6674

              So the season is worthless to the – and this is just one of many reasons why your comment can be viewed as so negative – rookies on the team that have just gone through a winning season and are encountering NFL play off football for the first time…..this experience is worthless? I think that a lot of people expect a near perfect season every time, with no flaws in the games, everyone playing to All-Pro level, rather than acknowledging each season is a continous works in progress. No team is exempt from that. Not even the current champs each year.

              Yes, our FO has got a lot of things wrong, and everyone on here knows that. But to say this is a worthless season just because we (haven’t yet) won the Superbowl is just showing extreme short sightedness. But I think there is a lot of hatred (a word you use a lot against the FO and players) against the team and that emotion can lead to such short-sightedness.

              Just to recap here – it’s OK to be happy we are in the playoffs and acknowledge the good parts while at the same time be constructively critical of the bad parts/works in progress. It doesn’t have to be one or the other. And it doesn’t have to be so hate fuelled.

              • Ben

                I think a good question is how often has a team with their native Top 5 pick ever taken a QB and gone to the Super Bowl within 3 years?

                That seems to be the expectation for the “wasted season” crowd. I’m happy to jump on board, however that doesn’t seem like a fast or guaranteed way to get back to the Super Bowl and win.

                Winning games now, despite SOS, means we have more players in place to catapult us to the Super Bowl than we would if we were 4-13. It’s hard to see it as a negative that it’s being made out to be. Adding a future HoF QB to the Broncos this season certainly didn’t make them contenders as expected, so it’s hard to be convinced there’s this special path to becoming Super Bowl champs. In fact, I remember that mediocre season with Tavaris Jackson still led to becoming just that.

                • DC1234

                  Cam Newton picked first overall in 2011 and got the Panthers to the superbowl in four years.

                  Picking a QB this year with the fifth pick is essential. If John and Pete believe in any of the four qb are franchise changing qbs.

                  That is in my opinion the quickest way the seahawks can make the superbowl. I do not see Geno taking them there. No way.

            • WallaSean

              More realistic than 4 wins

  56. Jordan

    Man, Quandre must of really been battling through something for the bulk of the season, as over the past 5 weeks/quarter of a season he has been himself again/excellent. Was just named NFC defensive player of the week.

    From Corbin’s twitter, for 2022:

    Comp. %: 47.6 (1st)
    Receptions Allowed: 10 (3rd)
    Yards Allowed: 135 (6th)
    Interceptions: 4 (T-7th)
    Passer Rating: 60.7 (3rd)

    Ryan Neal was named a 1st team safety for this season from PFF.

    • Rob Staton

      Hmmmm… I think ‘excellent’ might be stretching it

      But that was a nice pick on Sunday

    • Matt

      I would caution anything Corbin puts out there. His singular focus over the years has been protect the franchise and trying to be buddy-buddy with them and the overly loud Twitter community. He’s the definitive “path of least resistance” guy – going along to get along.

      • Jordan

        My mistake, I should clarify – those weren’t Corbin’s numbers; he was citing the data from PFF. But I couldn’t find it directly from PFF myself.

        • Matt

          Oh I understand that. My comment was on Corbin in general – he’s a hack.

    • Blitzy the Clown

      All this means is that unless Carroll retires, he’ll be back next season. No renegotiation or restructuring of his contract or $17m cap hit

    • Pran

      must be bottom 5 in terms of tackling

      • Hoggs41

        His play toward the end of the season might keep him around. Pete loves his single high safety and we dont have a guy on the roster to play it other than him.

  57. Hoggs41

    I really think the Colts best play is to try and move up to 3 from 4. It would cost them much less than to go to 1. They would be guaranteed one of the three top QB’s. The Cardinals would still get the same player they would probably get at 3. Seems like a win win for both teams.

  58. Blitzy the Clown

    Another Joel Seedman sighting


    • Palatypus

      I think he is training for the part of the Tough Mudder where you crawl under barbed wire.

      • Old but Slow

        Bull riding.

        • Palatypus

          Actually, the more I watch it I think he might work in the adult film industry.

          Probably as a gaffer.

    • Rob Staton

      Funny thing is that’s as useful as any Joel Seedman work out.

      In fact it’s probably better

  59. Gaux Hawks

    I really don’t get the “wasted” season chatter… as a fan, I felt this was a very entertaining season (especially given the extra broncos picks and drama).

    I’ve spoken to many French fans that were ecstatic after watching what they called the most entertaining World Cup championship ever watched (and were even happy for Messi).

    That is sportsmanship from the fans (that I wouldn’t expect from the French, nonetheless).

    And I think PC did a great job this year, even if I’m on the “retirement” wagon.

    Looking forward to this off-season, and thankful for SDB.

    • Rob Staton

      Can we not speak about the World Cup please…

  60. Mr drucker in hooterville

    So, worst case scenario: QBs go 1-4. Then what? Wil Anderson and then who does SEA draft for QB? Who are the best of the rest? Hooker? Haener?

    • Rob Staton

      If the top four go 1-4 (which is highly unlikely) then you shrug your shoulders and draft other positions

    • Group Captain Mandrake

      I think at that point you have to draft for other positions of need and maybe take a flyer on a QB that they can develop later in the draft. I wouldn’t be opposed to Anderson if he is available, assuming the coaching staff can remember that he is on the team and play him accordingly.

      • Hoggs41

        For me it would be Anderson over Carter even know Carters position is a bigger need.

        • Big Mike


        • Group Captain Mandrake

          I totally agree. I am not convinced by Carter and you can never have too many edge rushers.

    • CHaquesFan

      DTR from UCLA in the mid rounds is who I’d like

  61. VanHawk

    Rob’s points on Jalen Carter made me think of what Doug Baldwin said on the About Late Night podcast (which is a little bit of a hard listen due to the interviewer).

    “…you can be the greatest athlete on the court on the field, but what separates the good ones from the great ones from the elite ones is the stamina, its consistency…I trained that way (talks about training habits, running sprints)…the idea was I can perfect my craft I can perfect my hands, I won’t drop a pass, I can run the most immaculate route but if I am tired it doesn’t matter and so I train so that I was never tired…even to this day I train that way it’s all about stamina…”

    Doug Baldwin talked earlier about figuring out the importance of stamina training in high school and added

    “…what I learned from college is basically you’ve got to push yourself and there is a certain limit you’ve got to reach…you’ve got to push that boundary…what it comes down to is self motivation, you have to do it…you have to push yourself to do this…that’s what I enjoy watching (guys in the fourth quarter making the plays) because everyone else around them is tired and exhausted…thats the difference to me…”

    This is exactly what Rob points out.

    Anyone GM taking Jalen Carter in the top 5 will do so knowing they’re rolling the dice on whether his commitment and drive are at an elite level. Really these should already be established by college, and are unlikely to be gained later.

    • Rob Staton

      Especially when you’re saying publicly that you need to improve your conditioning… then at the most important stage of the season, you show everyone you didn’t do anything about it.

  62. Rob Staton

    Tony Pauline today:

    ‘There are scouts in the league who say if Sedrick Van Pran declares he’ll be the first center off the board. Late first rounder, early second rounder’

    Who could’ve guessed…

    • Zxvo3

      Well if Tony Pauline is also confirming this in addition to you Rob, then I will beg the Seahawks to pick him with their native first round pick, with or without a trade back. I think it’s a possibility that John Schneider is focusing on the O-Line more than he used to, hence the drafting of two offensive tackles in last year’s draft.

      • Volume12

        I wouldnt be surprised (no one should tbh) if Seattle double dips on the interior O-line (C & RG) like they did last year w/ the OTs

        • Rob Staton

          I think if they double-dip it’ll be the D-line

          But feels like they must draft one interior stud

          • Volume12

            Could see them going that direction on the D-line. As we know, they like vets @ that DT spot. Would love to see them get a Dre’Mont Jones in FA.

            • Rob Staton

              That is a good point, they do like their veterans on the DL

              I think the 2022 season probably forces their hand a bit though, even if they add a veteran

              And as we know, they aren’t willing to pay big money in FA

              • Jabroni-DC

                Jarran Reed could return. Vet, relatively inexpensive, known quantity.

            • Zxvo3

              I would love if we got Dre’Mont Jones.

            • Rob Staton

              It is worth noting that Dre’Mont Jones’ PFF grade was a horrible 51.8 this season

          • Zxvo3

            I’ve really started to get hyped for Keeanu Benton out of Wisconsin. I could see him having a Senior Bowl similar to Travis Jones from last year. He’s got the size (6’5) and the length. Is a good run defender and can show signs of pass rushing.

            If they want to double dip then I would pair Benton with Byron Young or Keion White. I’d rather not draft edge rushers this season, just plug up the middle. Although you can never have too many edges.

            • PJ in Seattle

              Agree they could likely take 2 DTs, but Keion White’s an edge rusher.

              • Peter

                Maybe you two are splitting terms.

                If white really is 6’4 285-290 he’d be a DE in a 3-4. So yes edge rusher but also what some consider “inside.” As in a big beefy boy upfront.

      • Rob Staton

        Van Pran is a top, top player

        Been banging the drum for some time and finally he’s getting some attention

        • Big Mike

          If only this regime valued the Center position….

          • Ashish

            Big Mike, we will draft Van Pran as a center this year.

  63. Rob Staton

    Well, the new mock draft is written.

    I can’t imagine what some of you are going to say 😬

    • Brett

      Can’t wait Rob! Always anxiously refresh the page this time of day hoping for new content. You are the best!

    • cha

      Strong Safety at #5 confirmed

    • Jabroni-DC

      The only thing we have to fear…is fear itself.

      And CJ Stroud not declaring for the draft.

    • Henry Taylor

      I reckon you’ve got us taking Bryce Young

    • Zxvo3

      We appreciate all the hard work you do.

  64. Scott Tew

    Been reading for 10+ years, first comment.

    I agree that spending #5 on a QB is the best plan and best use of the pick. I also agree A. Richardson is supremely talented. What I have not really seen addressed here is his completion percentage. Do you think it is unimportant or perhaps simply not as important as it used to be after Josh Allen’s improbable rise?

    We do all remember that was the biggest knock on Allen coming out was that accuracy (completion percentage) wasn’t fixable to a big degree. I’m wondering if we are properly weighing the likelihood of AR’s bust due to his accuracy alone.

    For the record, I am not writing him off, but I think there is significant bust possibility. That being said, I would still probably want to draft him over most of the other possible options at #5. I found this article interesting: https://www.theringer.com/2021/4/28/22406266/quarterback-development-nfl-draft-josh-allen-buffalo-bills

    Thanks for the hard work Rob. It is really interesting and entertaining work that you do.

    • Rob Staton

      I’m not that worried about it. I think if he played another year at Florida it would slow down for him and his completion percentage would rise. Plus the Florida receivers were bloody awful. I bet the drop percentage was very high in 2022.

      • Palatypus

        To be fair to the receivers, Antonio has a cannon for an arm. He may have broken a few fingers. John Elway did the same thing.

        But yeah, they’re rubbish.

  65. Rob Staton

    Mock written.

    Publishing tomorrow.

    Might do a video to go with it

    • KD

      If you don’t have Myles Murphy at #5, you’re going to have a billion twitter heads telling you that you clearly have no idea what you are talking about. After all, that’s what I’m seeing with virtually every mock on the planet right now.

      Not only is it insufferably boring to see everyone mocking Murphy to the Hawks, they all read like they are copied and pasted from each other. “Freak athlete! Size, speed and length, blah, blah, blah”

      • Hawk Finn

        You know what pains me more? Recalling all the mocks that had us taking LJ Collier a few years back and it coming true.

        • KD

          You know what pains me more? I was one of those people. 😛

          • Hawk Finn


            Not casting stones. I was an Aaron Curry enthusiast. 😬

            • Big Mike

              I wanted Crabtree at that spot.

              • Hawk Finn

                Ooh, yeah I remember him being another option. The look on his face when the Curry pick was announced…

  66. Mr Magic

    Good points all around. I however am a bit suspect of the ‘character issues’ rumor on Carter. There are no specifics to it and quite frankly it is very poor form by McShay to tweet a wild rumor with no substantiation. Has he been pushed for more detail? Why is McShay given a free pass on such a relevant claim. Meanwhile there is no record of Carter having any character issues going all the way back to pop warner. Coaches, teachers, teammates, acquaintances, not a bad word anywhere. I am a seller on the claim.

    • Rob Staton

      McShay didn’t tweet anything. He was on ESPN and discussed Carter as a prospect, mentioning that he had heard that the league had concerns about his character. This is not poor form or wild rumour or unsubstantiated reporting. McShay has done this for a long time and is a respected broadcaster with excellent contacts in the league and within college football. He is telling us what the league is thinking.

      As a BBC journalist I know how careful these people are with their reports. There’s no way McShay just tossed that out there with reckless abandon. That’s not how this works.

      You’re saying push him for detail. What detail are you expecting to get? A list of teams McShay courted information from? Do you expect him to reveal sources? Or specific details of incidents?

      I find it a bit frustrating that I keep having to defend Todd McShay frankly because he’s said something people don’t like. He has no horse in this race. He’s actually providing us with useful information that we should take on board.

      By the way — when he delivered his assessment of Carter, it was in a segment where he still mocked Carter second overall. So hardly a damning review.

      As for no record of any character issues. How about telling the world you need to work on your conditioning as a priority in April and then in the playoff semi-final and SEC Championship looking like you spent the summer sat on your arse not doing anything?

      • Matt

        I thought it was a pretty well understood concept that “character concerns” when referring to athletes; doesn’t just mean “he’s a bad person.”

        It’s very easy to a) be a good person and b) not be a hard worker. Had McShay accused him of a crime or drugs, etc – then yes, he better be able to back it up. Commenting on effort when we can all see it validated on game day is fair game, especially if he’s being told this type of stuff.

        • PJ in Seattle

          Watching himsit gassed and exhausted on the sideline for 50%+ of the snaps in most of his games this year tells me there has to be some fire to that ‘not a hard worker’ smoke. His highlights are undeniable, but how do you spend a top 5 pick on a guy who has never been able to get himself in CFB shape and expect him to suddenly turn it on and achieve and maintain NFL level conditioning?

          I’m sure he’s an upstanding, good guy. His talent is so special that many will find the ceiling worth the gamble, if someone is able to get him committed to what it takes. But to me, his floor is a lot lower than a player I would take at #5 overall. I won’t despise the pick if we make it, but I will be incredibly nervous. Much more so than I would be with any of the top 4 QBs, including Young.

          • Matt

            Perfect summation of my concerns.

            He’s wildly talented. He can absolutely become great in the NFL.

            No way am I gambling a top 5 pick on someone who needs to be motivated to work. Just a non-starter for me. I will not bet against human nature.

  67. DK

    Here is part of the scouting report on Jalen Carter from Walterfootball.com

    “ Multiple team sources say Carter is a better player and prospect than Jordan Davis and Devonte Wyatt. The 6-foot-3, 310-pound Carter has quality size to go along with shocking speed and athleticism. However, multiple team sources say that Carter is not a hard worker and has a reputation for not loving football. Hence, if he slides in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft the makeup concerns will be why.”

    Still had the Seahawks taking him at three after the Texans took Young and the Bears taking Anderson. So the other three QBs are in the board and they have the Hawks taking an interior d-linemen because that is the biggest need. Yet, their own scouting report has bust written all over the guy.

    The segment of Seahawk fans who think taking a QB at 5 is too risky, want to buy into the first part of that scounting report and ignore the latter part. Then they come back by saying none of the QBs are good enough and QBs bust at a higher rate so it is too risky. Not realizing that d-linemen are a close second in bust rate.

    Unless Will Anderson slips to Seattle at 5 I am becoming more and more in the camp of taking a QB if one is still on the board that John Schneider thinks can be the future.

    • UkAlex6674

      Their report didn’t say bust.

  68. Cameron Hughes

    I think a good comparison for Carter would be Dan Wilkinson, a freak athlete who went #1 overall in 1994. I think you’re looking at a similar career path for Carter here. He’ll get you 5-10 sacks every year but won’t play a ton of snaps and won’t live up to the #1 selection. Wilkinson had a lot of the same concerns coming out (conditioning, had to lose 40 pounds in college and gained it all back in the league, character concerns). Thoughts?

  69. Old but Slow

    For those talking about the risk of taking a QB early, I have two words: Solomon Thomas. Defensive lineman out of Stanford taken by the Niners at pick #3 in 2017. He is not a starter, had no sacks this year and about 30 tackles. Third overall. Defensive lineman. Bust.

    • clbradley17

      There have been so many similar players who were the star at college and just played at most average in the NFL. Vita Vea and Danny Shelton were both star DTs at UW, and while Vea has been very good, there are many DL who were top half of day 1 over the past couple decades like Shelton, Thomas and 40-50 others who didn’t live up to the hype.

      If you have a chance to get a top QB and play here for the next 10+ years, then draft him this year while we have that top 5 pick.

  70. JJ

    Any recommendations on draft podcast?

    • Palatypus

      While searching for these. I would concentrate on teams that economists would say are in a state of praxis. These are teams positioned to take a contemplative shift in philosophy. The NFL Draft is a battle of propaganda and information warfare, but it is also a battle of numeric field position These teams are easy to identify.


      The question is are they positioning themselves with Scrabble tactics or Monopoly.

  71. Scot04

    1st mock draft I’ve seen outside of Rob’s having Levis & Richardson as the top 2 QBs gone.

    • Peter

      Yeah that mock is okay…

      But it’s no CBS mock this morning where Seattle takes Bryan Bresee at #5. Then Stroud and levis go immediately #6, #7. And then Seattle takes Uzomah (?) #20….two players in the first round that are most likely both 2nd rounders…awesome.

      • Scot04

        Ouch, that would be incredibly bad. I’m also seeing many have us take Richardson at 20. Can’t see him dropping anywhere near that far. Will be interesting to see how everything changes after the combine & Pro-Days.

      • Qoolio

        Yes, the wise CBS draft that had Bryce Young #1 to the Colts, Peter Skoronski #4 to the Bears, and Bijan Robinson #32 to the Eagles. Had a good morning laugh with that one…

  72. samprassultanofswat

    I am pretty sure that John Schneider has a QB in mind. If the QB is STILL on the board Schneider will jump all over the pick. If he is gone then who knows.

    BTW: McCaffrey is comeback player of the year. Really. This has to be a slap in the face for Geno.

    Just another slap in the face to the Seattle teams.

    Rodney Dangerfield says he doesn’t get any respect. I beg to differ. Dangerfield gets a ton of more respect than Seattle teams (player personnel and coaches). Once again, another Seattle player gets the shafted.

    • Cysco

      Not being an arse, but what did Geno come back from? McCaffrey was injured for a good chunk of the season last year and I believe he finished the year in IR.

      • UkAlex6674

        Exactly this. He has had a superb season after last year.

      • Matt

        “Geno was able to comeback from Geno’s poor decision making and play. His ability to overcome Geno leads us to give Geno, comeback player of the year.”

      • Big Boi

        I mean, he was coming back from the bar when he got his DUI, and the next morning he did technically come back from jail. Would that qualify?

    • GrittyHawk

      Dunno how you can say McCaffery doesn’t deserve it. 3rd in total yards from scrimmage, 5th in total TDs. He had a great year. Plus, you know, he actually fits the criteria of being good, then getting hurt, then being good again. Geno was never good. If there’s a breakout player of the year award he can win that.

  73. samprassultanofswat

    Prediction: No matter who John Schneider selects at number 5(provided he doesn’t trade) he will say that is the player we really wanted.

    • no frickin clue

      Prediction: John raises eyebrows by taking TE Michael Mayer at #5 overall, and six hours later, there’s a story on ProFootballTalk about how multiple unnamed teams said that they were about to pull the trigger on Mayer if, damnit, the Seahawks hadn’t stolen the guy right from under them. 🙂

      • Hawktalker#1

        You guys are killing me. So sad but true.

        • Big Mike

          Yeah I literally LOL’d. Good stuff guys (and definitely sad but true).

      • Matt

        “We even got trade offers on the spot. Never seen that before.”

  74. UkAlex6674

    The Packers have a full deck of picks this year.

    If Rodgers goes do they try to move up to grab a QB?

    If he stays could they do the same?

    • Rob Staton

      Maybe but not typically their style

  75. Rob Staton

    Someone just tried to post a comment defending and promoting Joel Seedman

    And…. Delete

    • Palatypus

      So you won’t be investing in his cryptocurrency? Because I hear that NeckCoin is about to explode!

      • Big Mike

        “NeckCoin” And again I literally LOL’d. Guys are on a roll on the site today!

    • Group Captain Mandrake

      I think you should have let that one go. I am really curious what the defense of that charlatan would be.

      • Palatypus

        I noticed that his YouTube account says Seedman has a PhD in Kinesiology from the University of Georgia.

        Jalen Carter plays for the University of Georgia.


        • Group Captain Mandrake

          Time to bust out the tinfoil hats!

          • Palatypus

            Dude, I’ve been wearing it this whole time.

            It’s all I’m wearing.

    • jujus

      Hard hitting Question,

      Who is worse Liver King or Joel Seedman?

      • Murphy

        Liver King but only because of his larger reach and influence. Granted Liver King’s apology video is first class entertainment!!

  76. Hawktalker#1

    I’m really not sure how it’s possible, because I consume so much information related to the draft and the Seahawks, but my appreciation for Rob’s draft evaluation work grows every year. I also have incredible appreciation for all the hours of actual, realistic, factual information that is extracted from all the many many hours of tape that Rob has reviewed. It is such a different perspective than all the millions of mock drafts that almost all look exactly the same. Everybody loves the exact same guys for the exact same reasons because they all exactly didn’t watch any tape and are just hopping on the bandwagon and trying to get views for their YouTube channel by copying other information. So tiresome. On the flipside, getting refreshing realistic information about players that appear to be one way but tape shows to be another way it’s something I enjoy more than I can tell you. I also like to create my own mock draft, But if they are created using faulty information, they’re just as crappy as all the rest. I can do better, we can do better, Rob absolutely does better!!

    • Bankhawk

      Bang on the money, Hawktalker #1! I so do appreciate that Rob eschews the common fashion for his own evidence based hard work!
      It’s a breath of fresh air in this world of hype!

    • cha

      I want my
      I want my
      I want my SDB…

      Now look at them draft dudes, that’s the way you do it
      You build a draft board on the dumb TV

      That aint workin
      That’s the way you do it

      Money for nothing and your clicks for free

      That aint workin
      That’s the way you do it
      Lemme tell ya, them guys aint dumb

      Maybe post a mock draft with a little difference
      Maybe post a mock draft that is totally numb

      We got to install draftable options
      Custom mock draft deliveries
      We got to move these defensive players
      We got to move these topshelf QBs

      I want my
      I want my
      I want my SDB…

      • no frickin clue

        wow, this is excellent. Well done sir. I think Mark Knopfler would approve.

      • Factory of Sadness

        10-year lurker. This is the post that brings me out of the shadows. Brilliant! Oh, and thank you Rob (and cha) for the best Seahawks and NFL draft content on the internet.

        Back to lurker mode and compulsively hitting refresh to see if Rob has published his latest mock…

      • TomLPDX

        Nice! Now all we need is Rob’s latest draft to show up any minute now…

      • Big Mike

        Fantastic cha!!

      • Gaux Hawks

        Requesting Romeo & Juliet !!

  77. Hawktalker#1

    By the way, if you are a serious Seahawks fan, you’ll likely laugh your butt off as much as I did in incredible appreciation of this little Grossi clip: https://youtu.be/0y0dKyKacWs

    • Big Mike

      Maybe if Rodgers didn’t gag in every pressure game he plays in, the guy wouldn’t be so worked up (since he’s obviously a Pack fan).

      • Simo

        He’s probably right about the Lions though. They seem like the team that actually deserved the final playoff spot! Might have had a better chance against the Niners too!

        • cha

          They do.

          They put up 45 points on the Seahawks without 3 of their best offensive players on the field.

          • Big Boi

            It was brought to my attention that the Hawks schedule was so easy that the Brock Purdy-led 49ers beat more .500 or better teams than the Seahawks did. I agree that the Seahawks would not be able to beat the Lions today.

  78. Blitzy the Clown

    Anyone else refreshing TF out of SDB today waiting for Rob’s next mock to drop?

    • Murphy


    • Zxvo3

      It’s like the main event of my day

    • TomLPDX

      He’s teasing us…

    • Ashish

      10 times since i read Rob comment.

    • Rokas

      It’s 10 pm in UK, kids should fall asleep soon:))

    • Denver Hawker

      Darn real life getting in the way of hobbies. But until I hear otherwise, I’ll just accuse him of clickbaiting us.

  79. Grossmandg144

    Would love it if the draft played out like the latest mock draft on cbs sports by josh edwards were Seahawks get Stroud @ #5 and somehow Michael Mayer falls to them @ #20. Two blue chip players to go with Walker, Lockett, and Metcalf and build a dynamic style offense like the Chiefs, Bengals, or Bills and then try to get the defense up to a complementary level. As that seems to be a more doable approach than to build a top 10 defense in next couple of years

    • GoHawksDani

      LOL, everyone can dream, but sign me up for that scenario! 😀

    • Trevor

      Agree completely that would be a great first round.

    • Rob Staton

      Stroud + Mayer would be an A++

  80. TomLPDX

    Just wanted to take a moment and express my appreciation for Jeff Beck, who we lost 2 days ago. I have always been a big fan of his and his music.

    May he RIP.

    • Big Mike

      Well said Tom, and ditto for me. We’re losing the “old guard” rockers way too frequently now. Sadly not gonna slow down either.

    • Rob Staton

      One of the local football teams round here plays ‘Hi Ho Silver Lining’ as their anthem

      RIP Jeff

  81. cha

    PC wearing a backwards baseball cap in his press conf today…LOL

    “How do you do, fellow kids?”

    • Matt

      Lol…all time meme

    • Rokas

      And he is riding a scooter within the facilities with a reckless abandon. Does not look like a guy who wants to retire just yet if you ask me.

  82. GoHawksDani

    To me, worst case scenario would be something like:
    Stroud, Levis, Anderson, Richardson
    That would leave us with Young and Carter. Damn…I’d rather trade back at that point.
    Agree with Rob that Carter’s bust percentage is pretty high.
    And even sturdier and somewhat bigger QBs are struggling too (Murray, Wilson). Only exception maybe Brees but he was a giant compared to Young.
    I think he’ll have a really hard time and even if he peaks in year 2-3, I doubt with that body he can survive 8+ years in the NFL.

    If I had to choose and cannot trade back at that point, I’d choose Carter. If he can be disruptive 30-40% of the time it’s still better then just an OKish QB who’s days might be counting too. But would be an awful scenario.

    My hope is they get Levis or Richardson (or Stroud would work too).
    Anderson is a guy you could likely get in FA for 20-25m APY without, or trade your late R1 and maybe R3/4 and get someone with similar disruption. He’s pretty good but not top3 and not sure he’ll be (especially with this defensive coaching staff). And it seems easier to get a pretty good 8-10+ sack edge player than to get a 60-65%+, 3:1 TD-INT ratio, somewhat game changer (even if they won’t become Allen or Mahomes) QB.

    I’d love to have a great DT too, but Carter is just too risky and still got McDowell-PTSD.

    Do you guys think there could be a DT in the range of our later R1 pick who is either:
    A, a really great run defender who can get 3-5 sacks and ~8-9 TFLs
    B, a decent run defender who can get 7-9 sacks and ~13-15 TFLs?

    I’d love an interior disruptor or someone who just clogs up the middle and also deliver sometimes pressure (like Mebane)

  83. Trevor

    The 3 safest picks in this draft to be high end starters but still have All Pro upside are.

    Bijan Robinson
    Micheal Mayer
    Sedric Van Pran

    Would love to see the Hawks add one possibly even two of these guys. Mayer and Robinson are likely gone by 20 but you never know.

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