The more I think about this, the more it becomes clear what the key is to Seattle’s off-season.
I am not really concerned about the cornerback situation. If Josh Jobe returns, the only difference will be replacing Riq Woolen. I’m not convinced that’s the issue some believe it to be. Woolen was erratic. There’s a reason why the Seahawks seemingly have an extremely low level of interest in re-signing him.
Marlon Humphrey has a cap-hit of $26.2m. The Ravens only have $8m in effective cap space. Something has to give there. If he’s released as a post-June 1st cut, they’ll save $19.25m. If they trade him for a ham sandwich instead, they save $7.3m.
That’s one option, suggested due to his familiarity with the defensive system. There are others, including a draft class that contains several highly athletic prospects who could fill the void left by the talented but inconsistent (and at times maddening) Woolen.
I don’t think it’s worth panicking about the running back position either. If the Seahawks truly wanted to keep Ken Walker, they would’ve opened talks last year — as they did with Coby Bryant and Abe Lucas (and eventually Charles Cross). Walker, for all of his clear and obvious talent, has had injury issues. He had to work in a time-share and he was taken off the field for obvious pass-pro situations.
If he is about to get $14m a year from a team like the Chiefs or Giants, good luck to him. You can’t justify that in Seattle.
This isn’t like having to replace Marshawn Lynch. I’m not convinced Zach Charbonnet will be out as long as people are assuming, given the major advancements in ACL treatment in recent history. George Holani has done a job for the Seahawks. There will be opportunities in the draft and free agency to add another player.
If you look at the running backs in the AFC and NFC Championship games, the leading rusher was Rhamondre Stevenson — a fourth round pick in 2021. He had 71 yards in the snow game against Denver for the Patriots. Walker was second with 62 yards against the Rams. Then it was Blake Corum, a third round pick in 2024, with 55, ahead of team-mate Kyren Williams, a fifth round pick, with 39.
Regulars will know I’m not someone who downplays the running back position. I think we’re living in an era of NFL football where very talented runners are lasting into the #25-50 range in a lot of drafts and there’s supreme value to be had over a 4-5 year span. I am not a believer, though, in paying big second contracts at the position unless you’re dealing with a Christian McCaffrey level talent.
The worst case scenario here is the Seahawks rely on the players they have, supplemented with adding someone either in the draft or on the cheaper end of the veteran market. That is not problematic.
I am very comfortable with Ty Okada potentially replacing Coby Bryant if necessary. I’m less comfortable losing Rashid Shaheed, simply because I think the new dynamic kick-off rules have changed the game. There are more kicks being returned and more opportunities to score points. Having one of the top returners in the NFL is worth investing in. I would pay to keep Shaheed.
Now, the chances are the Seahawks won’t lose all of these players. They have enough cap space to play with. If they are all offered obscene amounts of money next week, that’s life and there’s nothing you can do. You can’t just pay everyone what they want. The chances are at least one or two of their free agents will return. Whatever happens though, I think it can be handled with these position groups.
The one area which could end up being a problem is defensive end.
That is the key to the off-season. This position will determine whether the Seahawks remain serious contenders in 2026.
So much of their success was down to the depth of quality, physicality and attitude provided by the defensive line. It was the same for the Eagles during their Championship runs. I’d even argue, led by Chris Jones, it was an underrated aspect of Kansas City’s dominance.
If DeMarcus Lawrence retires — and it’s clearly a strong possibility — and with Boye Mafe expected to depart and question marks over Uchenna Nwosu’s future due to his $19m cap-hit, this is the off-season topic du jour.
Address this properly and there is absolutely no reason why the Seahawks won’t be back and ready to rock in 2026. Struggle to address this and the chances of a step backwards are likely.
If they can pull off a trade for Maxx Crosby, everything else will take care of itself. Becoming a little bit weaker at running back and cornerback won’t matter if you take a giant leap forward at EDGE rusher. This would set the Seahawks up for success — and they know it. Which is why they’ve tried to acquire him in the past and why they’re almost certainly trying to acquire him now.
That doesn’t mean you can be totally reckless though, throw everything at the Raiders and just sit back all content. One or two people brought up the topic raised by Brock, Salk and HawkBlogger yesterday of dealing two firsts and Derick Hall. Personally, I think that would be a perfect example of being reckless. You can’t do that, and they won’t. Hall is too important and a natural heir to what Lawrence provided. You’d completely wreck your depth off the edge, creating another hole to fill if Lawrence does indeed retire. It needs to be Crosby and Hall, not Crosby or Hall.
Two firsts is on the high-end but still reasonable in my view — but even then, if nobody else is getting close to that (reports suggest the Patriots are only willing to offer a first and a fourth), the Seahawks have to be mindful of the real market, not the one the Raiders wish was out there.
Sometimes the best deal is the one you walk away from. This can’t be Crosby or bust, as useful as he would be to bring to Seattle. I want it to happen — but not in a way that damages the team. His arrival should be a calculated boost, not akin to a 12-year-old given some birthday money and let loose in the shopping mall, the cash burning a hole in his pocket.
The challenge for John Schneider is to find the sweet-spot. A deal that is sufficiently attractive for the Raiders to compromise, that can also outbid other suitors who are better placed to make an offer because they aren’t picking 32nd overall.
If it doesn’t happen, we pitched a potential pivot yesterday. Rashan Gary is a lesser player but appears on the way out in Green Bay. You could do a lot worse. That would secure you against losing Lawrence, giving him the chance to bide his time and make a call on his career.
They would need to do more. It might bring EDGE back into play in the draft.
It’s a deep but not particularly exciting EDGE group. It’s full of flawed prospects — players who either lack length, size or twitch. Players who excel as pass-rushers but struggle vs the run, or vice versa.
What would they need? If they can retain Lawrence, or replace him with someone like Gary, the key would be replacing Boye Mafe, who was typically used in a speciality rusher role.
Cashius Howell has an unbelievable motor. His personality fits the team perfectly. The lack of length is a concern (30 1/8 inch arms) but Mike Macdonald helped Kyle Van Noy (31 5/8 inch arms) to a nine-sack season in 2023.
He might have to be a specialist rusher only, which begs the question — how early are you prepared to take someone who is going to need his snaps to be managed?
Al-Quadin Muhammad played only 41.4% of Detroit’s defensive snaps last season but still managed 11.5 sacks. James Pearce played 53.7% and had 10.5 sacks. If Howell was only playing situationally but managed to get those numbers, because the rest of the defense was able to play the run well enough to allow him to play in attack-mode, can you justify it?
What about Malachi Lawrence? His testing profile is excellent but he doesn’t play the run well enough currently. Could he take on a similar role? Or could you wait until later and take a chance on Romello Height or Jaishawn Barham?
If Plan A is Maxx Crosby, would a Plan B of Rashan Gary + a rookie sufficiently place the Seahawks in a position of strength?
It might have to be. There are 32 NFL teams all competing for the same pool of players. You have no divine right to win the off-season competition. As much as the Seahawks will be wary of avoiding a repeat of previous seasons, where they lost key personnel (Frank Clark, Jadeveon Clowney) only to try and replace them with inadequate alternatives (Benson Mayowa, Bruce Irvin) — sometimes you’re dealt a shitty hand.
They didn’t keep Clowney because he wanted far too much money. The alternatives were not attractive in free agency and they probably took the most obvious option in the draft in Darrell Taylor. It wasn’t enough.
A similar problem could emerge this off-season. That’s the way the NFL is. Nothing is easy — and lasting success isn’t guaranteed just because they won the Super Bowl.
This is the off-season version of that final drive against the Rams in overtime in week 16. Can they close it out and get the job done? Or will they come up short?
Victory means adequately addressing your EDGE rush and having a major opportunity ahead of you. Losing isn’t terminal for your chances — but it will be a much harder path in 2026 if you can’t solve the defensive end dilemma.
If you missed my two-round mock draft yesterday, check it out here.
