I think there’s a strong chance the Seahawks will draft a quarterback this year. I discussed the reasons in yesterday’s thoughts and predictions piece.
Here’s the Cliffs Notes version:
— Russell Wilson and the Seahawks appear destined for a long-running contract saga
— Wilson can earn a fully guaranteed $110m between 2020-2022 if he’s willing to embrace the same tactic as Kirk Cousins and play on multiple franchise tags
— The Seahawks can realistically tag Wilson until 2021 but after that, the cost would be so high they’d either need a deal or they’d be forced to let Wilson become a free agent
— That means they have a two-year window to get a deal done and/or prepare for the worst case scenario of losing Wilson
— It’s not much but acquiring a quarterback they have faith in could present some form of leverage in a year or two by placing the onus on Wilson to decide how badly he wants to stay in Seattle (eg — ‘do you want to be here and compromise on a deal because if not we like this other guy and we’ll start him and trade you‘)
I think the Seahawks are well aware of this situation and are actively working to identify quarterbacks they like. Good teams plan ahead. There’s a chance they’ll come to a long-term agreement with Wilson. I suspect all parties want that to happen so it’s a good starting point. You still have to prepare for the other possibility.
John Schneider attended several high-profile pro-days a year ago specifically to look at quarterbacks (Sam Darnold, Josh Allen). He was spotted keenly observing the quarterbacks at the Senior Bowl. He attended the Oklahoma vs West Virginia game featuring two big name college QB’s.
In 2017 the Seahawks were also heavily linked to interest in Patrick Mahomes.
Revisiting the Mahomes speculation led me to this quote by Schneider before the 2017 draft:
“I’ve always thought you have to have one in the chamber and have a guy who is getting ready, and it just hasn’t gone that way for us.”
These are all reasons why I’m looking at the quarterback class this year.
I’d already watched all of Kyler Murray’s games as a starter in 2018. I believe he’s the most talented player in the 2019 draft. I think he’s a strong candidate to be a top-10 pick if not the top selection. There’s already talk that the New York Giants won’t draft Murray due to his lack of size. If Murray falls, that’ll be why. If he drops into range for the Seahawks I think there’s a relatively decent chance they will consider selecting him.
If Murray is gone, who else is there?
I started by watching Auburn’s Jarrett Stidham. He gained relatively positive reviews for his performance during Senior Bowl practises. He has good size, a strong arm and a year ago was considered a potential first round pick.
Auburn struggled in 2018 across the board. As a consequence Stidham struggled. His completion percentage dropped by five percent, he threw for only 2794 yards and Auburn finished the regular season with a 7-5 record.
It was said Stidham didn’t take the next step. He actually threw for the same number of touchdowns in 2017 and 2018 (18) and had one fewer interception. With Auburn struggling however, Stidham never really managed to elevate his stock.
I started by watching the 2017 film. Auburn beat Alabama in the Iron Bowl and reached the SEC Championship game. Stidham moved the ball well, managed the game and had enough arm strength to test a top defense. He was fairly solid. I then watched two more 2017 games and two 2018 games.
It’s extremely difficult to get a proper read on what he’s capable of. The Auburn offense doesn’t place a great demand on the QB. It’s a lot of quick passes, one-read throws and plays called by the sideline after seeing the defensive formation. There’s very little evidence of intermediate throws, multiple progressions, improvisation or touch downfield. When it’s time to take a shot they take a shot. When it’s time to throw a screen they throw a screen.
One thing that did show up was Stidham taking too many hits. This was a problem in the Senior Bowl game too. He had a turnover via fumble because he held onto the ball too long and shortly after took another unnecessary sack. It’s slightly concerning. Is he used to having things on a plate? When he has to make reads and think on his feet can he do it or is he going to keep getting hammered in the backfield?
Someone will take a shot on his arm talent. It might be in the middle rounds or it could be day three. I’m not convinced that team will be the Seahawks.
The second quarterback I watched this week (and third in total) was West Virginia’s Will Grier.
I was pretty interested in this. I figured John Schneider attended the Oklahoma vs West Virginia game primarily to watch Kyler Murray. I’d started to wonder whether it was actually a chance to see two high-profile quarterbacks — with one player perhaps more securable than the other.
Based on my study of Grier I do think there’s a somewhat decent chance the Seahawks are interested in him.
One thing that kept showing up was Grier’s accuracy on deep passes. Time and time again Grier would make extremely accurate throws on go-routes and big shots downfield.
A good example of this is his performance against Tennessee:
It’s actually an excellent performance across the board. Grier extends plays, throws at all levels with accuracy and velocity, shows great composure and finished the game with five touchdowns and 429 yards. In particular though, focus on the throws at 2:55, 3:35 and 4:00. His touch and ability to throw deep passes with accuracy is very much in the Seahawks ballpark.
Pete Carroll wants explosive plays. As much as he wants to be physical and run the ball, he also wants the passing game to be a threat downfield. Grier’s ability to throw with accuracy and get big chunk yardage fits their mantra.
This kept showing up again and again so I did some digging to see if there were stats to emphasise the point. PFF noted after his 2017 season how effective he was throwing the deep pass, acknowledging only three other college quarterbacks (including Baker Mayfield) received a better grade than Grier when throwing downfield:
“Grier targeted a fly route on 17 percent of his pass attempts (79 attempts), averaged a whopping depth of target of 29.5 yards and accumulated 1,102 of his total passing yards. Speaking specifically to those three routes targeted over 20 yards downfield, Grier had a passer rating above the NCAA average on all three of them, including a 100.1 passer rating on ‘go’ routes.”
He wasn’t just throwing to one fantastic speedy receiver either:
The Mountaineers were an equal-opportune receiving corps in 2017 as Grier (and Chris Chugunov in relief) targeted four recievers on at least 26 deep shots. Ka’raun White (509 deep receiving yards), David Sills (477) and Gary Jennings (432) all finished within the top 26 in terms of most deep receiving yards by a wide receiver. No other FBS team had three receivers to finish in the top 45 of deep receiving yards.
So what about the 2018 season? Grier ranked #1 among Senior Bowl quarterbacks for yards per completion (14.53 YPC). Kyler Murray was the top ranked quarterback overall (16.77 YPC). In comparison, Dwayne Haskins was only the 32nd ranked quarterback for YPC (12.95).
Maybe it’s a coincidence John Schneider went to watch Murray vs Grier. Or maybe there’s something in it?
At the end of the 2018 season PFF published a piece called ‘best at everything’. It was a breakdown of every position or unit and named a player that succeeded in a certain aspect of play (eg best player to run a hitch route, best swim move, best box safety).
Grier was ranked #1 for throwing the go-route:
No college quarterback throws a better go route than Grier, a trend that has continued from a season ago. He leads the nation with 1,207 yards and 24 big-time throws on go routes, doing so without throwing a turnover-worthy pass. In total, he’s completed 35 of 68 go routes for 17 touchdowns, averaging a hefty 24.2 yards downfield per target, routinely leading his receivers so well that they’ve gained 32.8 percent of his passing yards after the catch.
He was also named the best quarterback at handling a defensive blitz:
Grier has read and diagnosed blitzes this year better than any other quarterback. When the defense sends extra rushers, he’s completed 85 of 124 passes for 1,303 yards and a remarkable 22 touchdowns against no interceptions. His 14 big-time throws against the blitz lead the country, as do his touchdowns — as he’s been able to find soft spots and holes in coverages despite extra blitzing defenders coming at him.
Grier does have some limitations. His throwing technique is far from textbook. He doesn’t have a rocket arm and sometimes it seems he compensates on his technique to acquire extra velocity. There’s good and bad on tape. He took way too many sacks in the Iowa State game for example.
However, this is the second best throw I saw in 2018 after Kyler’s Murray’s impossible deep-ball touchdown while on the run against Alabama:
With the game on the line Will Grier lead West Virginia to a crazy win over Texas! pic.twitter.com/8BFflMRlWJ
— Athlete Swag (@AthleteSwag) November 4, 2018
Assuming Murray isn’t available to the Seahawks and with a firm belief there’s a strong chance they’ll draft a quarterback at some stage — I think Grier could be a guy they look at. His ability to throw with accuracy downfield and make big plays fits what they look for. If he can gain arm strength and spend some time adjusting to a pro-scheme — there is potential to work with.
If the Seahawks trade down from #21 and acquire an extra third round pick, it wouldn’t be a big surprise if they used it on Grier if he’s available.
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I dig it, those are some impressive numbers. I’m gonna watch him tonight, but he seems like someone who could find success in the NFL. Deep accuracy, smart against the blitz (important), and size are 3 good traits to have. In the 3rd round, if you think the guy has a shot to win games in a couple years, you gotta take him. Especially given the RW situation.
He has some very impressive deep throws. Beautiful to watch at times. Check out the Kansas, Kansas State, Texas Tech and Tennessee games. Iowa State he takes too many sacks.
Well if he takes too many sacks then he will fit right in here! 😉
Question Rob, in your ending statement were you alluding to possibly taking him with the acquired 3rd rd pick, or their first pick (whether it be end first or early second)?
I really liked his leadership and competitiveness in the 2 games I saw of his this year (UT, OU)
The acquired third round pick.
They have had success with QBs drafted in the third round
I feel pretty sold on a Grier for Seattle. I fear that he’ll climb into Rd 2 or late Rd 1, however, if he has a great pre-draft season. Rob, have you looked into Brett Rypien at all? He’s interesting to me and has decent numbers at Boise.
Although I hate to miss out on defensive talent early in the draft, it’s certainly true that drafting a legit QB prospect is what successful teams do despite already having a star QB. Either to use as eventual replacement, or trade bait. It’s the right move.
I’m sure more than a few Packer fans were a bit mad on draft night when GB selected Aaron Rodgers, who played in only 7 games and had only 59 attempts in 3 years while playing behind Farve. They seem to have gotten over it.
I would not take a quarterback who will turn 24 years old prior to draft day. There have been numerous studies on diminishing returns of older draftees. Here is one from 538 last year. I realize Russell Wilson was on the higher age range. Best not to rely on outliers as opposed to the bulk.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/age-played-a-bigger-role-in-the-nfl-draft-its-about-time/
This is a classic case of stats not telling the whole picture.
I suspect the reason most older drafted QB’s fail is because they weren’t good enough to declare earlier and are therefore not very good — thus meaning they don’t succeed in the league.
Then you have guys like Wilson who have the height etc that prove it doesn’t matter.
Grier stuck around because he had a years suspension and had to transfer. Not necessarily because he’s bad.
It’s also entirely possible that the QB part of that is almost entirely small sample size. Aaron Rodgers has insane career numbers, Jake Locker quit football. That’s going to make a huge gap by itself.
Also, the link shows a career value number. I guess most people see scarcity of talent as being a bigger deal than I do, but my main concern would be value over the life of the first contract. After that you are essentially paying market value, so there just isn’t much “extra” or trapped value in paying, for example, $25 million to Matt Stafford. He’s a net zero (actually probably less than that, but that’s the market for ya).
I’m so happy you’re doing all the homework here, Rob. There are only a few positions that I’m really not looking at to much such as RB, but with Carroll’s open-ended approach to this off season could make this one of the more, if not most, mysterious drafts this FO has had. There is a good case to be made for a QB, a TE, a WR, a DT, a DE or a LB with their first pick.
I’m still convinced that the first pick will be a front 7 player, hopefully a Bruce Irvin “type” who can maintain gaps, cover and pass rush, but at this point, I feel like I need to be prepared for anything, especially a massive shock when the pick is announced.
I trust the judgement of this FO to have a plan and stick to it to push this team forward. The only thing I really, really hope for is that they can position themselves in the same way they did last year when they wanted to take a running back, and save for Saquan, were able to have their pick of any RB on the board and took THIER guy at the last available moment.
I think i may need 2 packs of cigarettes on hand for draft night. 😛
Great read on Grier Rob. JS may just take care of that itch and take Grier, if Murray is not available, which more likely is the case. The Jags might jump to get Murray @ 7, or Washington @14, since Smith may not return in 2019. It’s very doubtful he will last to 21.
Grier may not be available in Rd 3 though. He’s got a lot of tools to work with as you’ve addressed. Perhaps he could be there first pick after trading down (4) times to the mid 40’s. Despite the rhetoric being tossed about concerning Brady’s age, this may be one that BB has his eyes on in Rd 2. This will be an interesting draft, without question.
After watching Grier vs Tennessee, he’s nice. His passes do float a bit. His arm really reminds me of Cam Newton, probably not as strong as Cam’s but given how much better he seems to be vs the blitz than Cam, that’s a fair trade off. I dont consider myself a QB scout at all, I rarely look at them, but I feel like he has a high floor in the NFL. Seems like someone who could be a dependable backup, and could win you games, although those floaters might lose you games.
In our run heavy offense, he would not have to pass as much and wouldn’t have to make crazy throws. A lot of play action and deep shots, same thing we do now. He may be different than Russ, but so far he looks like a fit, and looks like we wouldn’t have to change the offense at all.
On another note, I know this guy has off field issues, but he is a baller and idk if anybody has brought him up here. Preston Williams WR CSU is a BEAST. People say he’d be a 1st rounder without the off field stuff and I think that’s quite obvious. He could be that legit big WR weve been looking for, but he’s more Julio Jones than Megatron. I would LOVE to get him in round 4.
2. T.J. Hockenson TE UI
3. D’Andre Walker DE UGA / Brian Burns DE FSU
3. Will Grier QB WVU
4. Khalil Hodge LB Buffalo
4. Preston Williams WR CSU
5. Carl Granderson DE UW /Jalen Jelks UO
I’ve been crushing HARD on Hockenson. I would really love to see him, Dissly and Vannett together. I just love 2 and 3 TE sets ever since Gronk and Aaron Hernandez. Carl Granderson man, he reminds me of Chris Clemons and I think that might have me jaded, but I can’t even tell I just keep thinking of Chris lol
I watched Preston Williams for the first time today and he is an unbelievable talent.
I’ve not studied the character concerns and the only interview I could find was from High School. As a player, he was get out of your chair good. So fluid, so difficult to cover, so competitive. Outstanding talent.
I’ll try to summarize and hit all the points. I believe his first charge was domestic violence, but I’ve only seen that he shoved his ex, didn’t strike her. Then he got harassment, violating that restraining order, and I think one other minor thing. That was in high school or right after, he’s moved around a bit since, but seems to have kept his head out of the gutter.
Other than that, he tore his ACL his senior year of high school, when Mike Bobo was in the recovery room when he woke up from surgery, so Williams went to play for him at Colorado state. He seems like hes really determined, doesnt seem like a knucklehead. I think he just made a mistake and now has his head on straight.
He’s the real deal in terms of talent
This type of talent would be hard to pass on until the 4th Rd. You may have to use a late 2nd or 3rd Rd pick to acquire his services. Mr. Williams is a legit #1 receiver, just what Pete & JS have always wanted.
Adding him to the receiver group would make R.W. a very happy QB. These types of acquisitions to the roster may help sell Russ the primus that JS & PC are assembling the talent around him that is worth sacrificing for, in order to reach the SB again. Can you imagine Russ dropping dimes all over the field to Williams, No-E, and ADB!
If you had to choose between Grier & Williams, who would you choose? I would take the later, as a sells pitch, rather than an insurance policy.
He’s not going to go in R3-4 though. There are reports many teams don’t even have him on their boards. Seattle could easily be one of them. He’s a nice player but I don’t think there’s any need to start thinking about him as a day two pick. If they even want him sounds like he’ll be there in day three or UDFA. They haven’t gone after the big fallers with major character issues in the past on day three so it might be a moot point.
This “big faller” is going to be playmaker in the league, no matter when he’s pick. At least JS had a ring side seat to view his talents, and will perform his due diligence regarding those character issues from high school. It could not be any worse draft able than that of Simmons, who will still go in the 1st Rd, regardless of his issues.
It’s not appropriate to put your hands on a woman, forcefully, in any way. People in high school do stupid things at times. It’s what results from that, is what really matters. Does it affect change. Simmons seems to have altered his prospective. Hopefully, Mr. Williams is another that needs that opportunity to show he’s changed his perspective. If so, Pete is all about 2nd chances, with open arms.
I hope they pick him before anyone else does, if the investigation warrants it. He’s quite a talent, that you hate to see wasted, because of one foolish mistake.
Simmons has worked constantly for three years to repair his image. There’s no evidence that Preston Williams has done that.
There’s no way anyone can say Williams will be a playmaker in the league. I remember a few years back another WR who was kicked out of Tennessee. Da’Rick Rogers. Former 5-star recruit. He transferred to Tennessee Tech. This blog was full of comments saying what a star he was going to be and how they needed to take him when he falls due to character. I was asked about him every week or two. He went undrafted, bounced around the league for a while and then went to the CFL. Players waste their talent all the time. None of us know Williams’ background or truly know why some teams have reportedly already eliminated him from their draft boards.
I wouldn’t get your hopes up at all — that he has a career in Seattle or anywhere else. He’s a terrific talent no doubt. But it’s no good having all the tools and none of the professionalism.
“We are all here for some special reason. Stop being a prisoner of your past. Become the architect of your future.” This is yesterday quote from Mr. Williams twitter account. It appears that this 21yr old young man has the right perspective. One can only hope so.
+1000£0£
I been lovinn on Will Gruyere deep ball. Has the bees balls
Dunno man. I’d be sold on this, but I think we’d need to pull the trigger with our first pick. And PCJS wants their guys and not afraid to maybe reach a bit.
This is a really complicated matter. If they cannot pull some Carson-Russ-Sherman-type magic this could mean that we won’t have any first/second-year contributor from this draft.
Not sure if we can pull a Garoppolo with Grier.
Absolute best case scenario:
Grier/Murray falls to the third round, Hawks draft a DL/WR/TE talent with the first pick and get a leverage QB with their second. This helps push the negotiation with Wilson, who takes 5 years 160 mil, 110 gtd contract. Grier seems fine so we can trade him for a 1st or 2nd round to a QB needy team in 2020. Hawks hit on most of their picks and march to the SB in 2019 or 2020.
Absolute worst case:
PCJS reaches and takes Grier with the first pick. Russ not impressed and wants the big bucks. Russ leaves, Grier is a bust, franchise in flames
Obviously won’t likely happen these two cases.
I doubt they pick a QB in late 1st or early 2nd round. They have too many needs (WR, DL, LB). I think they’ll try to get their guy in the third. If their guy won’t be there then try to get a decent QB next year.
If it’s up to Russ I think he’d take a decent contract, but not shoot for the franchise breaking money. He loves Seattle, have a really good connection with PCJS and plays well in this system. He has a shot for another SB with this team, he wants that. I think he’d take 135m/4 years contract (100m GTD). But he’s agent probably pushing for way more.
I doubt setting the base as the tag is a realistic thing. With the tag you only have 1 year security.
Yeah you get 30+ mil completely GTD for a single year. You get hurt and can’t play next year, you won’t get paid. If there’s concerns about your health later, you might only get 20-25 mil and low GTD.
So if you can get 110 mil/3 years with tags, I think you have to go either with 95 mil fully GTD or like 110 mil 100 gtd
None of this ‘best case or west case’ stuff matters in this instance. The point of the piece is to highlight a player they might like and/or target.
As for Wilson and contract security — it’s a total red herring. Do you think if Wilson gets injured he wouldn’t get paid on the open market? Do you think Wilson isn’t prepared to bet on himself to make more money? He’s not some rookie noob who needs his first big pay day. He’s an elite franchise QB. Russell Wilson is going to get paid in any scenario unless he legs and arms fall off. And he’s just seen another QB (Kirk Cousins) play the tag system.
Im fairly certain the players sets the demands, not the agent. I doubt Wilson is telling his agent “Nah man, take the first offer they give you over 100. I dont need the extra.”
football is the ultimate ego game, and salaries dictate the pecking order. Wilson could set his price at $200m and just wait it out. When he hits the market in 2 years SOME team would pay it. He’s a SB winning QB, with the efficiency states to back it up. He’ll get paid no matter what.
To me is is imperative for the Hawks to gain some kind of leverage, however they can. I wouldnt be upset with them drafting a QB both this year and next.
Nice read on Rob and I usually agree with you almost 100% with you on QBs but I for me Grier is a Day #3 guy at best. He throws a nice deep ball but I really don’t see anything special about him. Watching him in the Senior Bowl practices he did not appear to have a great arm, he has average mobility and seems to take a ton of sacks from an inability to read overages.
If we can’t get Murray I really don’t see any great options on Day 1,2. I do like Stidham as a Day #3 guy but that would be come in and compete for a backup starter not as an eventual replacement for Wilson.
For me the draft this year for QBs would be Murray or none at all. I am not even a Haskins fan to tell the truth and think he was made to look better than he really is with the system and weapons he had.
Certainly I would not argue that Grier is ‘special’. If there was even a hint of that he’d be a first round pick. I do think, however, he is someone that can be worked with and developed. Throwing a nice deep ball is something valued in the Seahawks offense and it’s a starting point for any future progression.
Let’s make something clear here — the Seahawks are not likely to find a superstar in the middle rounds. That was rare air. But the reality of the situation is — they’re not going be picking in the top-five any time soon where the best quarterbacks go. So whoever they take is going to be flawed to an extent. And if we’re talking about the middle rounds, it’s going to be a player you attempt to develop. But trying to develop a player is wiser than simply shrugging your shoulders and saying, ‘we give up’. Especially in this scenario.
I will say though that I think Grier deserves a better review than the one you’ve offered there. I came away more impressed than I expected. His ability to throw down the seam was impressive. I like the velocity he showed on slants and I thought for a taller more orthodox looking QB he was suitably elusive and able to avoid pressure in all of the games I watched apart from Iowa State. His deep accuracy is quite excellent. And there are genuine moments of brilliance such as the way he beat an improved Texas team right at the end of that game. I recognise the flaws people talk about but in this instance think it’s worth discussing what he can do in relation to the Seahawks because you’re not drafting him to start you’re drafting him to develop.
I’m not saying the Seahawks will definitely select him but he ticks enough boxes to think they might like what he offers and be willing to draft him in round three — the kind of range I think he deserves to go.
That is a very reasonable and logical assessment of the situation.
I know a lot of us her on the Blog including Rob are big fans of Terry Mclaurin. So was Gruden this week I guess. I could see the Raiders taking him late 1st or early 2nd if that is the case. Seems like a lot better use of draft capital for a rebuilding team then using one of those picks to bring in Antonio Brown with the drama and contract he brings.
Gruden was talking to McLaurin on Thursday and had a glint in his eye. You could just tell he liked the guy a LOT. And with Mayock talking about character a lot on the NFL Network you have to think McLaurin is someone they will target. With four very high picks they may well take him with one — either late R1 or early R2.
Would compensation picks factor in on the quest in signing Barr? Losing KJ and signing Barr would result in a wash, as what occurred ln last years comp picks. Vic Beasley may be another option. He may become a cap casualty and become a free agent, if he clears waivers. The players who are cut are not counted for comp pick purposes. Would Beasley be a FA target?
Compensatory picks will always be a factor but they also need to add and build as they showed a year ago.
Grier has been a fun play to watch over the last few years. I would be entirely content burning a Day 2 pick on him. I think you nailed it Rob that the deep balls and efficiency is likely going to appeal to Carroll. I think he has some moxie determination to extend plays, as well.
Not terribly concerned about his mechanics when weighed with his college production. One thing that I think is a bit understated among fans is just how good of a QB coach Brian Schottenhiemer is. Russell clearly cleaned up a lot of his footwork in the pocket this year. In Indy he had a project QB in Jacoby Brissett playing pretty respectfully as a starter in 2017, all things considered. Even good old Mr Bum Fumble had his best years under Shotty in NY.
A guy like Grier would benefit not having to start right away. He can been Mr Preseason for at least a couple news, an become a bit of a fan favorite if he flashes. If Seattle had to move along from RW in 2022, it would be an easier transition on a major contingent of the fan base that thinks RW walks on water, if Grier also looks pretty decent.
Also, I should probably acknowledge my own stubborn take that I almost always wince on the idea of burning a Day 1 pick on a QB. As a middle aged life long Seahawks fan, I’ve been painfully burned. I would rather go high floor lower ceiling than high ceiling lower floor. That was the appeal for me with RW back in 2012. Getting the QB wrong in R1 is just too risky, IMO. Not the area of the draft to reach on that position.
Dan McGuire and Rick Mirer scars run deep
Good to see Murray in top 4 on the latest mock and also interesting to see Josh Allen mocked at no 1 overall!!
I don’t get Josh Allen that early.
When you watch a guy getting handled by a TE in the run game, that’s not #1 overall material IMO.
During the season I brought up Grier, not for the seahawks because I wasn’t considering the possibility of taking a QB at any point, except maybe a day 3 flyer and I’ve made my feelings clear on who i want to target in that realm, but because I thought he was being left behind in the discussions of who the top QB was this year (at the time it was mostly Herbert and Lock, this was also before Kyler Murray and Haskins were expected to declare). Rob countered with the fact that he plays in the classic BIG 12 ‘super-spread’ that doesn’t necessarily translate to the NFL, which is true but arguably less so with the way the league has been going. I also soured on him a lot during the Senior bowl, where i thought he was awful. But he’s certainly got the production, accuracy and moxy to be a success. So in summary, yeah i agree as a day 2 pick (round 3 ideally) I’d take it.
A couple more draft things i’ve been thinking about:
Everyone’s been super-high on McLaurin lately and I like the thinking, but for me if the Seahawks are taking a non-d line prospect with their first pick (still the priority if there’s an option when they eventually pick imo) I really believe it will be Deebo Samuel. The Golden Tate comparisons are truly legit, and we know that that’s a skill set they’ll covet. His performance in practice at the senior bowl practice was superb, so explosive in his ability to get open. I think he could be the number 3 receiver with some gadget play potential (maybe even as a RB) straight away, before taking over Doug’s role after a couple years. He’s a special talent who has never had good QB play, either in college or in the senior bowl. If he had i think he’d be well in the round one discussion, and he could be anyway.
The other thing is that I have gut-feeling the Raiders are gonna take Kyler Murray; probably with their first pick, potentially with the first pick. Grabbing headlines has been the order of the off-season and Kyler will be the most talked about prospect in this class. Jon Gruden was talking at the Senior bowl about throwing out his old parameters of what a QB needs to look like physically, something you get the sense of if you go back and watch his Gruden’s QB Camp with Russel Wilson. Then you’ve got Mike Mayock talking about taking high character guys, which is Kyler to a tee. As a duo, Gruden and Mayock have no skin in the Derick Carr drafting or contract, something they must know they need to get out of to be successful (and they can save $20m by cutting him post June. And finally there’s just something so poetically cruel about the Raiders taking away the football team from Oakland and the A’s first pick in the same year, that makes me think it’ll happen even more.
Gruden hates rookie QB’s. I can’t imagine him working with one, especially a 5-9 one who needs to improvise. But you’re right they seem to love making a headline.
Does he? I didn’t know that, seems like an illogical position considering how beneficial having a good QB on a rookie deal is.
He does. But he might also want someone better than Carr.
They do have the cap flexibility to keep Carr around as bridge QB, let Kyler develop for a year before you play him. Maybe Pat Mahomes’ success will bring that strategy of QB development back into vogue?
I also just saw a little quote from Lincoln Riley, who says he was told by Gruden that he doesn’t care how tall he is. I swear man, the more I think about this, the more convinced I get. Unless someone takes him earlier, this is happening.
Possibly so. Would be fun to watch it all play out.
“throwing out his old parameters of what a QB needs to look like physically”
“Gruden’s QB Camp with Russel Wilson”
“Gruden hates rookie QB’s”
“But you’re right they seem to love making a headline.”
They have 3 first round picks this year… 99% won’t happen and doesn’t make sense from a ton of points. And I’d be shocked about a trade, but still… one could reason about a trade like this (not saying I’d like or want or think it can happen, just a thought experiment)
For them:
Experienced, elite QB, big splash, a new face of the franchise before they move
For the Hawks:
They don’t have draft capital, they need it. Contract situation with Russ might get messy.
Why won’t happen?
Gruden wants to rebuild the franchise to his taste, they have big holes (WR, passrush, QB, RB), they need the picks too.
Hawks 99% won’t going to trade Russ.
If for the Raiders the QB would be the only huge need and if the Hawks would be in full rebuild mode, or would have issues with Russ (like with Sherm or Bennett) it might happen. But that’s not the case.
But IF (huge if) it would happen Hawks could get potentially Murray, maybe Hock, one of the good WRs, a really good passrusher and LB.
Huge risk, and potentially ruin the franchise for the coming years, but it would be interesting 😀
I don’t think Russell is going anywhere
I do think there’s a chance Oakland trades Carr and drafts a QB
Oklahoma sports information director says they measured Murray and he’s 5-9 7/8. So 5-10 seems more accurate until the combine
https://twitter.com/mhouckOU/status/1084938177956233216
Super outside-the-box idea (just throwing it out there, not advocating):
We know Gruden loves Russell Wilson (and has since before he was drafted), and Oakland have both the draft picks and the capspace to make a big move–if he offers #4 + ??? (some combination of their two late firsts and high second and/or future picks… let’s say for the hypothetical we keep it all this year and make it 4+27+35), would you consider taking the deal and grabbing Murray as a replacement? You’d have 21/27/35 to help rebuild the defense/grab some additional weapons, and you could try to recreate the deep/expensive roster around cheap rookie deal QB model we had going before.
Oakland would get to make a big splash, have a star for their move, etc. (and still have #24 to add a wideout for him or whatever).
No I wouldn’t trade Wilson.
In regards to kyler having high character, I think I recall it being mentioned that he was t well like by teammates at UO. Do we have any snips from the coach talking about his character? I personally am not a fan or sold on on any qbs in this class as high picks, including Murray, but Grier does seem very logical in the 3rd for us, and stidham to the patriots in the 4th. Murray is a freak athlete, and electric, with lots of talent, but not just his height scares me, his stature does as well, along with command. The difference I see between him and RW (and his predecessor BM to nite) is leadership and moxie. Which he may pocess, I am not close enough to him or see him outside the lines. If I am the raiders tho, I’m trading some of my 1st round capital for next year, to load up picks and make a splash in the move to Vegas. And I also feel the QB class next year is much stronger. Carr is a solid QB in my opinion, that was thrown a difficult situation last year with his buddy Mack, then coop being traded, and locker room in disarray, and tried to do to much while failing to bring his team together. Unfortunately, I’m not in their front office (yet haha) so they could reach for Murray, and cut/trade Carr. I just don’t see it. But OSU Tmac i can see being highly valued by gruden, and others. I do take pause on round tho, the NFL and fans have a thing for recency bias, and there is a lot gonna happen until the draft. Whoever shines closest to the draft will prevail.
Riley speaks very highly of his character and leadership. Different style of leader to, say, Baker Mayfield, but a year ago that was a major negative for a lot of people. Kyler’s all ball.
How annoying, Lance Zierlien stole my idea. You’ll have to take it on good faith I thought of this independently.
In Lance Zierlein mock 1.0 all of the Clemson guys + Hockenson and Ed Oliver are available when seahawks are on the clock.
Lance Zirelein’s Mock Draft 1.0 has the Seahawks somehow getting Clelin Ferrell at 21. Don’t see him lasting beyond the top 15. But if he did last to 21, would you consider staying at 21 and not trading down? In fact, who is the one guy, if available at 21, that would entice you enough that you wouldn’t trade down?
Link to the Full Mock Below…
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001014266/article/lance-zierlein-2019-nfl-mock-draft-10-kyler-murray-to-raiders
I think it’s a very interesting mock in some regards.
But any projection that has Christian Wilkins lasting to #31…. I just don’t get it. I really, really don’t get it.
It’s definitely an interesting mock. Fifteen of the thirty-one picks are front seven, which given the talent level of those positions is about what I expect. But that also makes me really think that neither Ferrell or Wilkins last beyond pick 20. I’d personally swap Wilkins and Lawrence in this mock.
On a positive note, if it plays out like this with a lot of picks on the front seven, the options at WR and TE should be quite significant if the Hawks trade to the 35-40ish range. I’m really thinking the Hawks are going to address front seven in FA (resign Kendricks, try for Barr, get prove it deals from a couple pass rushers). We drafted two pass rushers in last years draft, and we’re going to keep Clark. The position needs help, and I think a couple veterans will aid that more than solely a couple draft picks.
Only four picks? Screw it, if you have Wlkins or Ferrell on the board you take one.
The team needs DL talent most, you can’t pass up a gift like that.
This is the dilemma the Hawks seem to find themselves in frequently: Trade down because they are low on picks or stand pat and pick the best player available, possibly at a position of real need.
Not sure I would handle this issue the same as John and Pete, which is to trade down no matter who is still on the board when their first pick is due.
NFL teams need an abundance of talented players to get through a full season given all the injuries that occur, so you can argue that more picks gives teams more chances to find those talented players. And the Hawks have definitely hit on a few mid to late round gems over the years, which might lead one to believe more picks is clearly the right course of action.
However, NFL teams also need top end talent to compete at the highest levels, which makes a case for not trading down and picking the best player available. This year the Hawks may get the opportunity to draft one of the highly touted Clemson linemen, or another very talented player that falls a little, thus adding top talent rather than just more bodies.
Think we all know how John and Pete will handle this dilemma though, especially with only four picks!! I still trust they will find a way to improve an already talented team. Go Hawks!
I’m telling you now — those Clemson linemen will not be there. I have no idea what these mocks are all about. But there’s no way in hell Christian Wilkins and Clelin Ferrell are dropping to #21 and Dexter Lawrence is too good to drop that far too.
I’d also say this. I’m not one for trading down at all costs every year. But this team won a Championship being built on talent outside of R1. And getting ‘a name’ and then only having three picks in the rest of the draft isn’t a smart move. Especially when you’re picking at #21 not the top ten.
Those are great points Rob, I just wanted to shed some more light on this issue, since the Hawks seem to face it frequently. More picks vs higher picks??
I don’t imagine John and Pete are locked into a trade down at all costs mentality either, particularly when they have a full complement of draft picks.
There’s also certainly no guarantee that the “name” high draft pick (perhaps even all of the Clemson guys this year) will pan out. There’s countless examples of high draft picks turning into busts (Aaron Curry anyone?), and this continues to happen today even though teams have a tremendous amount of data available on every player.
It will be fun to see what happens, as it seems like some highly rated prospects fall every year for various reasons. Maybe someone will fall the Hawks can’t pass on (Kyler Murray?)!!
Great job with the site Rob, like many others I anxiously await your next column and the great discussion that inevitably follows!!
Thanks for reading. I appreciate you all for caring what a British dude thinks about the draft 🇬🇧
Zierlein has Kyler Murray in his top 5 for his mock and getting a ton of crap for it, but it is good to see someone else back up Rob’s opinion.
I like Zierlein’s mock, it is really close to what I have been thinking for which players fall where. The top seems right, the order in which they fall? Not sure about that. I like Murray at #4 but I think Tampa goes offensive linemen at #5. 6-32 seem pretty good. I like what the hawks get at 21 even though they are going to trade down. Maybe they don’t if an elite prospect is still there. Offensive linemen and QB’s are always over drafted.
Glowinski got a 3 year 18 million dollar contract with the colts. This will probably be what Fluker and/or Sweezy will get. What bunch of crap. We release him and he is a viable starter for Indy? I wish that ended better for the hawks.
I’m not convinced that’s what Sweezy and/or Fluker will get. I think they’ll be much cheaper.
Wow… Seattle cast off gets a rich deal. Cable:-)
He really shined, when taken off the trash heap. Perhaps he finally got the right coach in his ear and right situation. It isn’t bad that he got a monster at the LG position and got the starting QB back in action behind him.
The problem with drafting a qb after round 1 (and then developing him for two years) is that you then only have one year to evaluate him (as a starter) before you have to make a decision whether to extend him. If he plays well..then you’re looking at $20-$25 million per year to keep him out of free agency..or you’re back to square one.
2021 is expected to be the year of the work stoppage also…so you may not even get a full season to evaluate.
It’s still better to have someone you might want to pay a second contract to than having to fish around looking for a Sam Bradford type.
It bears in mind to consider a similar situation to ours that happened about a decade ago in Green Bay. Rodgers was drafted in 2005 (John Schneider was a personnel analyst to then GM Ted Thompson) and was Favre’s understudy for three seasons before becoming the starter when Favre departed via trade to the Jets after the 2007 season. Extend Wilson this offseason through 2022 or 2023, groom a replacement, and in a couple years before the rookie QBs contract is up reevaluate whether to keep Wilson, trade him, or even trade the understudy.
yeah but the Favre/Rodgers transition may be the proverbial “exception that proves the rule”…they typically don’t go that smoothly. It seems like qb’s these days are either taken in the first round (and expected to contribute in year 1)…or they slide to the later rounds where you don’t have as much draft capital carrying a clipboard for 2+ years.
Anyways..it will be interesting to see how JS plays this.
As has been discussed, extending Wilson may be easier said than done, depending on how much Wilson and his agent dig their heels in. There is heavy concern this negotiation will be far more difficult than last time around.
PFFs top 50 free agents. Three Seahawks make the list. Also 40% are front seven defenders. Link below…
https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-the-top-50-nfl-free-agents-of-2019
Wow. Lots of good pass rush help available. A guy like Suggs doesn’t even make the list. Was hoping Graham or flowers would be affordable, surprised to see them above Frank. Not everyone can get paid (can they?). Someone hopefully slips through the cracks and ends up with the hawks on a reasonable deal.
Statistically, Murray & Grier are reasonably close in the passing game, considering Murray played in 3 more games this year. Grier also was asked to pass for an average of 9 passes a game more than Murray in a bit more of a pass happy offense. There is a very clear difference between the two QB’s in their rushing stats, Murray=stud, Grier=dud, not that Grier doesn’t have an appeal as a passing QB, but he isn’t close to similar to either RW or Murray when running the ball (and maybe that’s a good thing?) From watching Grier on tape, he does however have reasonable movement skills and is well suited to the pocket passer role.
Having said all of that, I think the Seahawks would be wise to draft Grier, but I’m not sure he lasts to round 3. They may have to use a high 2-nd after their trade downs to go with a QB selection. To me the biggest question is: will whoever drafts the QB-Murray be comfortable with him running the ball that much at his slight size? If running stats are removed from the comparison, Murray is still a little better statistically than Grier, but not by too much.
Murray: A good part of Murrays’ game is his 140 rushes for 1001-yds (7.15-YPC) and 12-TD’s.
14 games, 260/377/4361-yds/42-TD’s/7-INT, 69.0%/11.7-YPA, 199.20-rating/26.9-attempts & 311.5-yds. per game.
Grier: As a runner, Grier in 2018 had 48 attempts for -90-yds & 3-TD’s.
11-games, 266/397/3864-yds/37-TD’s/8-INT, 67.0%/9.7-YPA, 175.40-rating/36.1-attempts &
351.0-yds. per game.
Worth noting here that rushing stats in college for QB’s are completely messed up because they count sacks for some awful reason. So while Grier most definitely isn’t a running quarterback, it’s hard to use rushing stats in most cases for QB’s.
For a team like the Giants or Jags, Murray is a transformational talent, adding playbook depth and flexibility.
For a team like Seattle, with this physical style and limited playbook, a well built pocket passer like Grier could be an even better fit than Murray. What strikes me is Griers ability to kickstart his game early, keeping himself aggressive over 4 quarters.
The game @Iowa St was a healthy reality check, not only for Grier, but the whole Mointaneers team. Only 42 run snaps, 1.9ypc, 7 sacks. Iowa consistently double teamed WVs receivers, after they broke the run game, and WV was dumb enough to keep Trevon Wesco out of their game plan. The Mountaneers gave up 498 yd of total offense, and their run defense was completely lit up.
The game we should watch is vs Oklahoma. Grier kept WVU in that game, and – once again – if they had a competitive run defense, they would’ve won that game.
Btw, David Sills is one of the seldom mentioned WR, a late round flyer. Prototype slot receiver.
Rob and everyone else should watch this video with sound from 3:33 to 4:35. You will not regret it.
https://youtu.be/1mmUrpehhgA
I keep on hearing about his off field issues, however the only article I could google to mention them, I kept getting blasted with pop ups, can anyone help me out? Love the tape and size though
Preston Williams – yes please.
I just finished watching that highlight video before you made your post. It is a highlight reel, but still very impressive.
Cole: You know what is interesting about the tape? Aaron Taylor mentions the name John Schneider.
The Hawks have had decent luck with third round quarterbacks. Just sayin’.
You’re right.. Brock Huard is pretty good in the booth.
Im not sure how i feel from that video of his mechanics. It looks like RW and opens up strip sacks a little bit. I think the further away from you body the throwing motion is, it improves your accuracy a bit. Like a typical baseball throwing motion. that can be an issue for RW, he drops the ball at almost hip level and makes for a big windup. Its why hes looks so nervous throwing from a congested pocket. Im not sure if it was because Jason Garrett was the coach or RW.. But he looked terrible in the probowl. RW is a system QB to me. One that has next level playing ability to win games late.
I would take Grier’s windup over RW and if they have an extra 3rd or even a 2nd. I would probably take him and trade RW.
I’ve certainly have questions about Wilson but how do you argue with seven years of results? He hasn’t had an elite defense for two or three years and he’s still winning. Could the Patriots have won with Aaron Wilson or Big Ben… of course, but would you then argue that Brady is a system QB? I don’t think you can separate the Coach/QB/results. For me Wilson has an uncanny ability to remain calm and at the same time “ball out” during the most crucial times of the game. How many QBs with Russell’s notoriety would be willing to buy-in on a run-first team today? There are so many components that make a QB the right QB for a team and I think we’d be nuts to tamper with a successful formula.
Nice post.
Has anybody on here looked at Buffalo QB Tyree Jackson? Thoughts?
There has been a fair amount of discussion on him. Go back and read the comments made On Robs last few articles to get the details.
According to WalterFootball, the Hawks have had meetings with: Nasir Adderley, S from Delaware, Andre Dillard and Jalen Jelks.
Rob. Just for the record. You have a very convincing argument for Grier.
BTW: I was listening to Tony Pauline. I don’t think Pauline is to impressed with Montez Sweat
That lukewarm opinion on Sweat is going around. Seems to lack consistency.
One other point. I just saw a mock draft that had Grier going in the top 20. There is no way that Grier would last into the mid third round. John Schneider’s best hope is to trade down and then take Grier with their first pick. That is if he is still on the board. Which is highly unlikely.
One point on Kyle Murray. I love the kid. But five feet nine inches/185 pounds soaking wet. Can Murray stand up to the physical pounding that he will have to endure in the NFL?
Just because one early mock shows him going early doesn’t in any way mean that will be reality. Mocks are all over the place, esp finally right now and that is to be expected.
Hawk. What you are saying is. Mocks drafts tend to be all over the place. However, QBs tend to go early because teams are trying to find their QB. There are a lot of teams looking for a QB.
Grier isn’t going in the top 20. There’s a decent chance he’s there in R3.
Indulge this thought exercise:
If LeBron James pulled a Jordan, quit b-ball and announced his declaration for the NFL draft, does he get drafted? If so, when and to play what position?
I’d venture he doesn’t last past the 3rd round and is pegged as a Tight End.
I was staying at the Rosen Center Shingle Creek in Orlando while they hosted WVU football team for the Bowl game. I saw a lot of their players but no Will Grier. I did see his wife, however, and….wowzer. We should draft him just to see her regularly.
As far as Grier, he’s got the it factor, no doubt. I just would prefer we draft players that help us win a championship now. I know PCJS don’t think we have any major weaknesses but that is not the same as having several strengths. We need to keep adding to the pile. Both lines of scrimmage, TE, WR, DB.
Russ is here a couple more years minimum. Keep getting him help.
Drafting Grier would be one pick though.
The difference between contending next year and not will not come down to one player drafted in round three.
But there is still a better chance that a third round non-QB pick contributes and sees the field. Example: What if we had drafted a QB in the 5th round last year instead of Tre Flowers? Your argument regarding Russell’s contract is sound but I still don’t think there is quite the urgency to draft his replacement this soon, when our extremely limited draft capital should be used on players that have a better chance to contribute now.
There absolutely is the urgency not to draft his replacement but to draft someone you can develop over the next two years. The further you push this along the more you drift towards being the Cardinals post Carson Palmer. That won’t happen in Seattle.
And I see your Tre Flowers and raise you a Rasheem Green who did nothing as a rookie.
Who says, it will stay at 4 picks?
I think, Jaron Brown is definitely outward bound, and we may have a hard decision to make on Baldwin. I expect them to start with 5-7 draft picks, finishing with 9 players drafted.
If Brown goes he’ll be cut. On Baldwin — they just don’t have the depth at WR to pull that move.
They’ll draft two WR, maybe a playmaking TE and have two WR on the practice squad. Both players mentioned are not belonging to the core.
I think, trading Baldwin and showing the ability to make tough cuts is the single leverage the Hawks have in the RW poker, short of flying to Oakland in March, and give Gruden and the Raiders a real star QB to kickstart their Las Vegas adventure.
I doubt they draft two WR.
But it’s possible, unlike trading Baldwin.
Trading a 31 year old WR slowly but steadily loosing production should always be possible. He is not a core player, and at this point overrated, IMO.
It’s not possible. Carroll has already stated, very clearly, he isn’t going anywhere. He is seen as a core player. And overrated? Give over.
Coleslaw, nice find on Preston Williams. Hands, body control, route running, strength at the point of catch, deep ball adjustments, very nice.
Rob, I assume since you were impressed you might highlight him in a future piece. Here’s some material I found.
I know you already have this, his SPARQ testing from HS, where he measured in at 6040, 192.
Those numbers aren’t particularly eye-popping, but his sophomore year in HS, he was Georgia’s Class 6A state champion in the long jump and runner-up in the triple jump, and at CSU he leaped more than 24 feet on four of his six jumps, and his best effort of 24 feet, 6 ¼ inches was the second-best in school history and best in the Mountain West this season. This article also mentions his competitive nature:
https://eu.coloradoan.com/story/sports/csu/2017/02/23/football-transfer-making-his-mark-csu-track-tream/98305004/
This article compares him favorably to AJ Green, and depending on his 40yd time now (which IMO is clearly faster than 4.6 on tape), I think that is fair for his potential given the skills he shows on tape.
https://collegian.com/2018/09/zahlmann-preston-williams-matches-up-favorably-with-star-nfl-wideout/
AJ Green: 6035, 211, 4.49 40yd, 34.5 vert, 10’6″ broad, 4.21 SS, 6.91 3C
Williams: 6040, 209, 4.60 40yd, 33.7 vert, N/A broad, 4.22 SS, N/A 3C
On the off-field stuff, this seems to be the most detailed reports I’ve found:
This one adds detail on a second arrest:
Not sure why it’s so hard to find interviews of him, but I managed to find some. Nothing special, but at least you get to hear him:
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/sport/nba/csu-receiver-preston-williams-on-upset-win-over-arkansas-footbal/vi-BBN4iHt
http://cc.bingj.com/cache.aspx?q=msn+Slow+starts+key+to+CSU+football%27s+problems%2c+receiver+Preston+Williams&d=4649402769222126&mkt=en-GB&setlang=en-US&w=_dPldpzGPYhCTfeyA88uZkSp2M9KqbeV
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/careersandeducation/csu-football%E2%80%99s-preston-williams-not-sure-if-he%E2%80%99ll-leave-early-for-nfl/vp-BBQ0cAH
And an interesting coincidence since we’ve been talking about him, here he is apparently training with Will Grier. Wouldn’t that be funny if that ended up being a connection we see on the Seahawks in the future…:
https://twitter.com/lifesyourcup/status/1087273046681899008
These are the most encouraging comments from him that I found about learning from his mistakes. This is the interview to find if anyone can- Post Practice on Tues, 11 Sept 2018:
That same article also mentions him being quite the jokester, to the point of possibly coming off wrong to the people who don’t know him.
Off field interests are fashion design and modeling…
https://collegian.com/2018/10/qa-preston-williams-discusses-personal-life-aspirations-outside-football/
Anyway, sorry for the long, messy comment and you don’t have to leave it posted if you prefer not to in favor of adding it to whatever you might be working on already. Cheers.
OK, I’m in love with Deebo. So sick movement skills. Pretty Baldwin-like. From a rookie…5-11, 216 pounds receiver…
https://twitter.com/DraftNetworkLLC/status/1088551843129634817
Wow…
Carson is 5-11, 222
Penny is 5-11, 220
Baldwin is 24 lb lighter, Lockett 32
This dude is built like our RBs, able to return kicks/punts, is a good route runner, has good hands. Not the fastest, but quick, decisive, has good vision.
He could be our KR/PR and #3 WR. He could also run sometimes and could handle screens. I’m putting him onto the “I’d be fine if he’d be our first pick” list next to Hock and McLaurin
Lots of time to see how contract talks go. In current draft JS can be opportunistic, if a QB is there great but we can also wait another year. Who knows Paxton Lynch could surprise or next draft get Eason after he’s done taking UW back to playoffs this season.
So, was the Paxton Lynch signing for nothing?
No, not sure why you’d say that.
It’s hardly like they’ve made any big commitment to Lynch. Plus the Lynch signing itself is insurance against being unable to re-sign Hundley or draft a new QB.