Just a quick post today as I’m heading home after a long working weekend in London but wanted to share some quick thoughts…
— Will Levis is now the betting favourite to be the #2 pick. I’m a little bit surprised that he’s jumped as high as #2 but far from shocked. There’s been a higher-than-usual amount of negativity about this quarterback class, Bryce Young aside. The stuff that’s currently being discussed about C.J. Stroud is bizarre.
Levis has always had a lot of talent and potential. In terms of physical projection, he’s the complete package. He knows there are things he has to work on. The situation at Kentucky was not conducive with success. People forget Texas Tech were 5-7 in Patrick Mahomes’ final season and Wyoming were 8-5 in Josh Allen’s senior year.
Wins and losses and statistics are part of the picture but can’t be the focus. It’s about projection. What can a player become?
Let’s not forget this quote from John Schneider:
“You have to be able to project where they’re going. You just can’t look at here’s A, B and C and that’s part of their game, you have to be able to say here’s A, B and C — what’s it going to look like at X, Y and Z? Where are they going to be? That’s the study, that’s the art, that’s the projection that’s involved.”
I’m not convinced Levis will go second overall and think it’s probably just a bit of market overreaction to some ‘chance your arm’ bets. I think his floor will be Indianapolis at #4, however. Even so, it wouldn’t be a total surprise if the Texans selected him. Levis has outstanding character and will help a new coach shape a culture. He’s a terrific scheme fit for the Shanahan offense. He can start quickly.
I think it’d be a great fit. Twitter might explode if the Texans make the move but it wouldn’t be the first time such a reaction proved foolish.
— Tony Pauline says the Cardinals are fielding trade calls for the #3 pick.
I’m a little bit confused by Tony’s report — I’m not sure whether he means a team wants to trade up to go O-line or whether the Cardinals will trade down and then make that selection. I suspect he means Arizona will move down to, say, the #11 pick and then pick an offensive lineman. That’s the range where the rush on the group is expected.
I think this could end up being a worry for the Seahawks. I was speaking to someone quite relevant yesterday who felt — and I tend to agree — that Anthony Richardson could be the quarterback out of the four available that most interests Seattle. If Will Anderson goes second overall and then someone moves up to #3 to select Richardson, that might be a worst case scenario.
Again, I don’t think Jalen Carter is the option Seahawks Twitter seems to believe. It was also interesting listening to Michael Lombardi this week discuss Tyree Wilson and mention some teams might have concerns about his foot injury — as those types of injury have a habit of reoccurring.
Personally I would hope the Seahawks are quite relaxed if the worst case scenario involves C.J. Stroud being the pick. Yet it’s hard to know what to think, given the negativity surrounding him over the last few days.
I’m set to interview Tony tomorrow so I will get some more info on what he’s hearing.
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Exciting week ahead, Hoping this time next Saturday we are sitting back come with our QBOTF. Thanks for all the work Rob, draft season wouldn’t be the same without SDB
+1!
+1
Exciting draft — partly because of the uncertainty — but great content from Rob.
I’d be interested in his thoughts of how many veterans and players with contract situations will be moved as assets for draft positioning.
Also wonder the Levis 2nd momentum could be some ploy by the texans trying to force the Colts to trade up with them.
Heck, I would if I were the Texans! Make Ballard’s ass sweat! Then Schneider trades up to 3 for Richardson!! Lol
Whatever happens at 5 happens.
Then take Kancey at 20, Pickens or Benton at 37.
Evey day there is something new and Rob is right on it.
If Anderson is there I think Arizona takes him. This is why an Arizona trade will be during their pick. Here Seattle at #5 gets one of the QBs. If Anderson is gone (likely at #2) then Arizona trades down and the Seahawks likely gets Anderson and we are right back at the win-win we all want to rest our weary hearts on.
After watching the OSU-Georgia highlights again, I am fine with any of the three QBs. It would be fun to watch Richardson, but the most fun is winning and I think all three can do that. Health will be a big factor. Remember Luck was a can’t miss and kinda missed in the measure of playoff success. Luck also proved that big dudes can get hurt too. Given that maybe Stroud has the best shot at a long career since he seems a little more careful about running.
*Every*
“Luck also proved that big dudes can get hurt too.”
Yep. Luck put a struggling team on his back at terrible cost to his own health. He was a physical beast, more than willing to lower his pads and administer the pain himself on those downfield scrambles, but a human can only take so much punishment. No wonder he lost his love for the game.
That’s why I’m so enticed by the idea of sitting Anthony Richardson for however long it takes in order for him to realize that that shoulder cannon of his is the real weapon. He can run 20+ mph, but he can throw 60+. Obviously, his devastating running ability will be a big part of his game in the NFL, but once he develops his off-speed repertoire and pocket functionality up to the league standard, he can redefine his game such that he doesn’t subject his body to an inordinate amount of hits. I don’t want any dents in my Anthony!
…”With the second pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, the Seattle Seahawks select…”
If we doesn’t get one of the QBs at 5, he will say he didn’t have them as high as who we do pick. And whatever QB he does potentially pick, will Be the one he wanted all along. If they trade out, then it will have been the plan all along and the team trading up was waiting to see who available. That’s just how the information is going to flow. So your comment reads the same as the one you are attacking.
Uhh…could you please show where this comment of mine is “attacking” something?
(waiting…)
(waiting…)
(waiting…)
My gawd with the straw man arguments in here. It’s like a plague.
…And I’m totally fine if Schneider does pass on a quarterback at the top (such as Richardson, for example), as long as I don’t have to hear later about how much Schneider liked the guy. I have been very open from the beginning about the fact that—compared to the team’s personnel department—I know next to nothing. The same applies to all of you. If Schneider takes somebody other than “my guy”, I will simply conclude that my guy is just not as good as I thought. And yet I still form opinions about players, because I love the NFL draft. It’s fun.
Stroud or Richardson if both are available? That is a decision the Seahawks may need to make.
Of the five, I like Stroud the least and always have. Bit overhyped for me. But if the draft goes like above, Seattle has to take him and not look back. And hope they can coach Stroud into consistently being the version we saw in the Georgia game. I’m skeptical but you have to take that chance given the alternatives and the possibility of Stroud consistently being that player.
Levis at pick 2, or Levis as the #2 qb taken? Because if Texans and Cards go defense, Colts would pick Levis, making him the #2 QB taken.
“I’m set to interview Tony tomorrow”
And hell yes, can’t wait.
Nevermind, I see it says #2 player. I hope then it’d be indy that trades up, which still means Texas picking a defender at #4. Along with others here, I’m starting to get speculation fatigue.
If the Texans are willing to trade with a division rival, why cant the Seahawks move up to #3 (or #2 for that matter)?
Ugh, you’re right, I always forget that. Probably wouldn’t be indy then. Will probably be Seattle instead. Indy can trade with AZ. 😆
I’m at that moment when everyone seems to be making predictions, so I’m just waiting for the draft. But If Levis will be pick #2 or even the second QB to be drafted, it’s worth keeping in mind Rob was high on him before everyone else.
Rob also said at one point that Richardson might be the first pick. For a few days everybody has assumed that Young will be the first pick. I still think there might be a shocker at #1 that will shake up the top half of the first round.
You know Robbie is gonna have some serious butterflies come draft night.
Look, if Richardson if their target for QBoTF, then JS needs to quit pussyfooting around and PAY THE DAMN IRON PRICE. All that talk about Mahomes and Allen becomes completely irrelevant and nothing but a cheap ass talking point if he fails at this.
You need to take your convictions down a notch or two as your comments are redlining. You don’t get to choose whom the Seahawks draft.
Obviously, I dont get to choose who they draft, but Im allowed to call a spade a damn spade and say what I feel are talking points. QB is the most important and impactful position for the entire team and this cannot be refuted. If JS really was willing to trade up for Mahomes or Allen, then he should have 0 issue moving up a couple spots and locking the spot down now that RW is gone.
If and only if, management sees the same potential as Mahomes or Allen.
They were taken at 7 and 10.
In the last 10 years, 30 QBs taken in 1st.
Franchise players: Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, then 2nd tier Herbert, Lawrence,Tua. Rest busts.
20% at best success rate.
Yes a franchise QB is the goal of all SB bound teams, but at the top of the draft, the wrong 80% choice will set
damn wrong button…ugggg….haha
the team back, as you will once again be looking for the illusive QB the following year.
With no sure fire QB this year, I’d rather get a solid player and take a flyer on Hooker.
I believe top 5, or a late round maybe much better than camp fodder such as Haener.
Thats a bit misleading though. You also have to look at the teams that chronically draft in the top 5 and top 10. The Seahawks have a rare opportunity to develop somebody like Richardson who has all the traits u could possibly want.
Herbert is not 2nd tier. I would wager damned near every GM in the league would rate him top tier. As for “once again looking for that elusive QB the following year”, what will the Hawks have to give up to get up in the position to get one IF (and it’s a large IF) a top 2 or 3 team was willing to trade with Seattle?
As Schneider said, you project what they can be and the 4 top guys this year COULD be franchise level. There are no guarantees but considering the chance to get to this position again is nil, you roll the dice. Besides there is NO guarantees that Wison or Carter or whoever will work out either.
Exactly to all this.
Herbert….give him a coach.
Lawrence…..let’s see since last year was his “rookie year,” opposed to that train car filed with manure on fire that Meyer had going on.
And what’s the success rate on non-qb players? It’s not any different, go check in on safest player of the draft Aaron Curry. And what’s the success rate on franchise QB in round 2? 5%? Round three? 1%? It doesn’t get better…
Exactly, even the Defensive players that turned out well, lets take Khali Mack for example. Did Khali Mack elevate the Faiders to SB contenders or even elevate the defense to average? The obvious answer to both is No he did not, they only went as far as Carr could take them. Myles Garrett is another example. Did Myles Garrett elevate the Browns to greatness? Nope, Mayfield took them as far as they could go.
The organization that drafts them is a huge variable in whether a QB succeeds or busts. If its the same bad teams taking multiple chances at QB in the 1st round, then that has to be considered. Some teams and organizations are just flaming dumpster fires.
He might do
He was talking about whether they want to move ‘up or down’ in his interviews this week
I think he’s on it — I think they’re monitoring the situation with the intention of not missing out on one of their key targets
I really hope so Rob, otherwise I think relying on hopium and just hoping your guy falls to you is a recipe for failure. You have to take your shot and make it happen. Like you’ve said before I don’t think the chiefs gave a crap about the picks they used to move up and get Mahomes. JS should have absolutely 0 issue with moving up 2 or 3 spots to ensure you lock down the QBOTF.
Spot on. I believe JS is absolutely tuned into this draft and the trade market like a man on a mission. I expect nothing until draft day, but if things start to fall in a way he doesn’t like, he will move up to get his guy when the clock is running if that’s what he thinks it will take.
I’m crazy pumped becasue I am 100% certain it will be a QBOTF, and a QB that JS is willing to stake his reputation on. I believe it’s Richardson, but if it’s Levis or Stroud, I’m here for it and will be celebrating, Because that’s just our first and possibly most consequential pick, but I expect to come out of this draft with a slew of players that we all get super fired up about.
I agree, W502.
Relax. Schneider is letting the draft come to him. He’s run a number of scenarios is comfortable with the possibilities at 5.
I wonder if they are prepared for the unlikely scenario where Anderson, Wilson, and Carter are all off the board in the top 4. There would be 3 QB’s available at 5. If they decide to pass on QB’s and go for immediate help in 2024, who do they pick? Or do they trade down?
“Relax….Schneider is comfortable with the possibilities at 5.”
If you’re just making a prediction that the Seahawks will stick and pick at #5, fine. Maybe their draft board does have multiple options of equal grade, leading them to hold in spot. But I think that unlikely. Sticking and picking is no guarantee, and this “relax” snark makes your comment come off as just this. You didn’t explicitly use the word ‘guarantee’, but it’s implied.
The fact of the matter is that “the possibilities at #5” do also include trading up for a franchise-altering prospect—quite possibly a quarterback who can’t be assured will fall to them—hence the discussion. Nobody outside the VMAC knows for certain which player the team is targeting, let alone at what draft slot they will need to get in order to draft him. Not even you.
The OP is right about not wanting to hear any more of Schneider’s supposedly great eye for traitsy quarterbacks if it turns out that he really liked one of the 2023 crop but elected not to summon the resources necessary to draft him. Schneider gets a lot of credit for wanting to draft Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen in 2017 and 2018, respectively, and now he’s in a legitimate position to pick a prospect of comparable profile. Maybe he’s got the top D-liner with a higher grade than these quarterbacks; so be it. But if not, it’s crap or get off the pot time for the Schneider and his QBotF.
Seahawks are going to be able to pick one of the 3 QBs not named Young. I believe it’ll only be one as I think someone trades into the 2 or 3 spot. My gut still tells me Richardson as it has all along. Stroud ir Levis wouldn’t bum me out tho.
I don’t know why the Texans wouldn’t take Levis at #2 (or their fav of the 3). They have more draft capital then anyone over the next 2 years to build out the rest of the roster. I’d take the bird in the hand this year 2nd overall.
I agree with you that if I were the Texans I would go quarterback at #2 and give him some time to develop. But that seems much harder these days than it used to be. I think this talk about picking defense is a smokescreen.
Not sure they need a smokescreen at 2.
Well.. it is national smokescreen and wild speculation week. No need to worry about anything, que serah. We will get a qb or will. Relax your mind, and float downstream. It’s not unusual.
I would not be surprised if someone takes Richardson before the Seahawks have a chance to take it.
In my opinion. I would take Richardson over anyone in the entire draft.
This.
+1
+2. Wherever Richardson goes after Bryce Young, I have a feeling that 5 years from now people will be wondering how ARich wasn’t the #1.
What if..
#1 Young
#2 Levis
#3 Trade – Stroud (i am not sure if someone would pick Richardson over Stroud given Georgia’s game and success)
#4 Will Colts take Richardson or Anderson?
#5 ?
Colts want a QB so …. Richardson probably
Pran: Doubt if both Richardson/Anderson are still on the board. If both Richardson/Anderson are still on the board. John Schneider and Pete Carroll will be both jumping for joy.
It would be so interesting to see the alternate universe where there draft is a week ago. We’re our projections off, or are clubs over thinking things Since they have time to ruminate.
During his radio show John Schneider mentioned how having more time gives others a chance to catch up. It would seem that his opinion is more in line with the longer timeline giving other teams more time to get right, rather than opinions changing due to over analysis.
#5. Richardson or Anderson. Looks simple to me.
If we are going to look at worst case scenarios then the choice at #5 would be Young or Anderson with Richardson chosen already. So either another small quarterback or a pretty good defensive end.
I’d take Young over Anderson. Both great players, but the QB value is too good to pass up.
I wasn’t really a Bryce Young fan but the more tape I’ve watched, I have had my eyes opened. I believe he could truly be Drew Brees 2.0
To me, worse case is the big 3 qb’s and Anderson are all gone.
To me this is a trade down spot. Some team will covet Young and give up alot.
What about Houston for 12, their early 2nd this year and next years 2nd?
What do you think? What trade would you like in this scenario?
#12 and an early second round would tempt me if their guy wasn’t there at #5. Basically giving up on a quarterback but adding another second round pick would be great in this draft. They could pick a tight end, wide receiver and a center – and still have two picks left for defense. All in the top two rounds.
Woops, meant to reply to above
It’s pretty simple. You take Carter if he is there. The need also matches the potential talent.
Sarcasm?
Doubtful, but it should be.
I don’t want to thumb this out til I have a tendinitis.
I’ll take the field vs. Carter.
For best DT in this class.
You got to put the work in or the potential never matters.
I love it when people say ‘it’s simple’ over Jalen Carter
The one person in this draft where nothing is simple
The most complex decision in the draft is projecting Carter
And all these people saying, ‘ah shucks it’s easy because he’s talented’
Will be the same people moaning if/when he’s the next Isaiah Wilson
its extremely frustrating hearing pundits saying talent trumps work ethic/character
Carter will have a rude awakening in the NFL and most likely the team that picks him will need a veteran to mentor Carter and or baby sit him
i am not optimistic Carter pans out to be the elite playmaker his talent dictates and in 5 years i want to see if Carter gets a large 2nd contract or not
No, Edgar.
Could Carter really be drafted by Seattle at 5? The off field stuff is not my biggest concern.
On other sites they want Carter so bad. They too can overlook his off the field activities BUT never do they bring up lack of conditioning or only being in shape to play 40% of the snaps.
You dont need to be a film expert to see how many of those 40% plays he takes off.
With a top-5 pick, I want a player who truly “wants it”. A player that is desperate to be great.
The majority of players who grade out in the top-5 have the skills to be good NFL players. The thing that separates the “ok” from the “greats” is desire and love of the game. When talent takes you only so far, what about your personality and character will make you push your abilities even further?
I have seen/heard nothing that leads me to believe that Carter wants to be great. Last year they drafted an entire class of players who “wanted it.” I just don’t see the front office making an exception this year with the highest pick they’ve had in a decade.
A lot of people are not taking the character stuff anywhere near as seriously as they should
They arent taking it seriously because it doesnt fit the stupid narratives that are going around across the media (local and national), and among the fans in the fanbase.
He’s only getting a pass because he flashes elite talent in a handful of snaps each game. There are snaps where he ragdolls linemen and totally destroys the play. Then there’s the other 80+% of the game.
People projecting him as a top 5 pick are engaging in some magical thinking, IMO. They watch the highlights and think this is what you’re getting for every game. Reality: You’re probably getting 20% Ndamukong Suh and 80% Nick Fairly. I’d maybe take that shot at #20 but no way in hell at #5.
I don’t think i would take him at 20 – not even sure i would in the 2nd round
That’s all they say! Watch the film! Carter is the easy pick! I trust the film over anyone’s opinion!!!
Hopefully Rob gets a slew of new visitors after my answer
Trust the film? There is no film on the 60% of plays he sits out. Or of him skipping meetings, Or of coaches not being able to get him to work harder. Or of him not working out. Or of acting like an immature boy. Or of him drinking at 2:30 am. There IS film of him leaving the bar. And of him being dominated by Wypler in the semifinal.
I appreciate that Rob doesn’t do “hot taeks”. Wether it was the Russell and Pete stuff or Jalen Carter. If it’s polarizing it’s always well thought out and evidence based.
💯
Thank you
I’m glad some people understand and appreciate that
I won’t be right every time, nobody is
But I put a lot of thought into what I write about
We all appreciate your service. Without you, we’d be left with all the low IQ dumpster fire nonsense that’s being propagated everywhere by media, “content creators”, and the fans.
And that’s the best bit. Your blog is so well researched and your thoughts so we set out.
And I’ve said it before – you’ve got years and years of research and information you’ve collected to draw down upon, and compare with. It’s absolutely fantastic.
+1
After the Georgia game we all thought there’s no chance we’ll get the chance to draft CJ Stroud. From then on he had a great combine and a great pro day. It was a lock that he’d be drafted at 1 or 2. I wouldn’t let a test score scare me away from him. We have the chance to draft our franchise QB. Take him at all costs if he’s there
I highly doubt teams are being scared away by a test score alone, but I could see it becoming a significant factor if it corroborates existing concerns.
I continue to think they will love everything about Richardson, but if they see Stroud as a very Geno-like quarterback they may feel that is a better fit for their offense.
But….the love of Pete’s life is highly athletic players with potential. You marry that to a plus mindset, a quick learner, and frankly a guy who checks the “vibe check,” and he, Richardson, can play in this offense.
Yeah that is a vibe check fit for sure
I meant that if Richardson wasn’t there, take Stroud without having any doubts
I don’t follow betting markets, but PFT is reporting that not only has Levis surpassed Stroud as the #2 overall prospect, but that Wilson is next, with Stroud and Anderson being seen as long shots.
Anyone have any idea if betting odds have been accurate a week out from the draft?
Gambling odds are more a reflection of public opinion. Vegas wants to be in the middle and have half the people betting one way and the other half the other. If they have been accurate in the past that was because the consensus public opinion was accurate. This year is an outlier, at least in the top part of the first round.
It’s a whole new world
Betting in American Sports has never had this level of exposure
It’ll be some time before we know what it all means
A word of caution though. If one of you put $200 on CJ Stroud being the #2 pick right now, the odds would change
That’s how it works.
If someone with a lot of money decides to have a flutter on Levis at #2 for a bit of jovial betting fun, the markets will crap themselves and adjust
This. These are marginal props. Doesn’t take much to move the line.
Well they had Malik Willis going in the top 10 and the clear favorite to be the first QB taken, so not very.
Rob, I am preparing for my draft party. Any Day 3 gems you’d like to share? I confidently called Abraham Lucas in the 3rd last year and my friends still reverently repeat the story of my Stephen Sullivan pick years ago. So, the bar is set high.
Of course I told them about TEF and your blog after Abraham Lucas.
If they last to day three:
Chandler Zavala
Anthony Bradford
Emil Ekiyor Jr
Dorian Williams
Jay Ward
Rezjohn Wright
Cory Trice
Thank you!
Love seeing Rezjohn get some love. He has a Seahawks frame and attitude. He is a willing tackler and a ball hawk. He improved every year since coming from JuCo and was a leader. Tell me if you heard this one before, he gets a little grabby. If anyone can get something from him it’s Pete. Karl Scott did pretty good with young guys too
I love this. I always get Robs board out on the picks. Fun to cross people and mark how close to the hawks they get.
Rob thanks for all the well thought out content. I appreciate opinion with reasoning. It is always more fun to watch the draft with in depth opinion then with local media/national info.
For me you’ve made the draft more fun.
Thanks.
Carter = Puff (out of shape) the magic dragon
If he can’t play hard in limited snaps, is there really an upside for him?
And that’s cutting him a break on all his off field stuff.
Maybe time to take the “keep it simple stupid ” approach and let the the market come to Seattle, make a game time decision to take the player if hes there or field the best offer, either way your sitting pretty playing with house money. That is the all cliche opinon which is simple in itself.
Or be proactive and do what they want. Sit back and let it happen is being scared and careful. You don’t win that way. If they want to do something, then they need to make sure that they do it.
There is no house money, this is the legitimate chance that they need to close the talent gap and set up the future, or start digging their own graves.
I would say there is a difference between scared and being pragmatic. Seattle has a lot of holes to fill, if its AR your after and costs very likely your top 3 picks, coupled with your top pick not playing for 2 years it could be argued that you’ve squandered this draft. I understand the upside and also the risk just like risk with any of the top QB’s on the board. I guess my point is that if you stay at 5 there will be a high reward high risk QB without giving away your draft.
Houston is doing exactly what they should be doing….trying to bluff teams drafting below them into thinking they will take their player. The next thing we’ll probably hear is they have interest in Richardson.
I believe they desperately want to trade down and the spot that makes the most sense to me is #5. In that spot, they could still have a realistic shot at getting a QB at #5 if Anderson goes #3 to ARZ. If Anderson doesn’t go at three, they could get him at #5.
The Hawks would have to pay up at least #5 & #20 if not more to move up to #2, but why not have your choice of Stroud, Richardson, Anderson or Levis rather than hoping you get one of them? I see the top 5 going something like this.
CAR B Young
SEA A Richardson
ARZ W Anderson
IND CJ Stroud or Levis
HOU Levis or T Wilson
I believe if they really want Stroud or Richardson, a move up to #2 is a must.
Wonderlic test, S2 test- these agents should advise their clients not to take these tests..results are always leaked every year by teams trying to manipulate the processs. They are supposed to be confidential and they never are.. I’d run to the podium if C.J. is there at #5
Agreed – if Stroud is there at 5 we will have dumb-lucked our way into a winner for standing pat and waiting.
Just added a new YouTube video to the top of the article on why I like the idea of Seattle reverting back to their old defensive scheme
Wow Bonus Video – you are killing it this season Rob. Lets hope they go back to their old defense and just turbocharge it. Can’t believe they have any cap money left to pay for more veterans. I thought Wagner got the last bit of money!
Here is the Hawks’ starting 4-3 defense right now:
DE – Nwosu (soon to be Anderson or, if not, Frank Clark after Adams $ is cut)
DT – Dre’Mont Jones
DT – Jarran Reed
DE – Taylor
Will LB – Bush (or Adams)
Mike LB – Wagner
SAM LB – Brooks (or Bush as Brooks insurance)
CB – Woolen
CB – Jackson
S – Diggs
S – Love
In the 4-3 we’re much more set than people realize. Where are the holes that have to be improved in the draft? Other than Will Anderson (or a top CB), who in the draft would instantly upgrade one of these positions?
Everyone is expecting us to go defense (and we need depth), but WR3, C, G, TE are all needs either for this year or 2024.
I would still pick up some more defensive linemen. I wouldn’t be afraid to pick out some big guys too, even if they don’t need a nose tackle anymore there is nothing wrong about having a big guy or two to anchor that line. Mostly they need to find some guys who can tackle. No more long runs through the line!
100% agree
i would like to see a 5 tech DL as well as DT depth
unsure who is the full time LEO
Nwosu= 255lbs
Jones= 280lbs
Taylor= 265lbs (allegedly)
If they roll that out as a DL they are going to get gashed at insane levels. The defense is in the middle of a transition and don’t have the personnel currently to run a 3-4 or 4-3. John himself said that the process that they are going though is similar to the one he was part of in GB when Capers took a few years to get the right body types in place. There are holes all over the place and that is why Pete named the DL as priority #1 for the offseason. Also, if they were gling to switch back to a 4-3 why would they bring in (and stick with) a Fangio disciple to run the whole thing?
Clint Hurtt will do whatever Pete tells him to do… he is no innovator
You realise Hurrt was on the staff during the Carroll D years too right?
And nobody is saying the defense is ‘finished’ but there’s a pathway to create a 4-3 without forcing need
Where did Clint work before he arrived in Seattle and why do you suppose Pete brought him in? Do you think it was to help him out with the system he wrote the book on? He was stubbornly sticking to his system until Sean and Kyle came in and blew the doors open. He HAD to change, and he knew it BECAUSE he knows everything about the scheme.
Regardless of which system the Seahawks are going with, like it or not, there is a need that will to some degree or another need to be balanced when making decisions on picks. There is no way around it, they are in limbo. Look at the DL as it is currently configured…that is a position group that would derail a season even if Seattle had the best QB in the league.
Hurtt isn’t a Fangio disciple, only coached under him for two seasons. Hurtt spent more time in college under Charlie Strong at Louisville then he did under Vic Fangio. Plus, John Fox was the head coach in Chicago while Hurtt was there and Fox was a 4-3 guys as a DC.
What front did they run when Fox was HC?
Yeah a nwosu reed jones taylor DL would be our pass rush line up in a 4-2-5 nickel (which we played a lot last year as well). But there is no way that we would line up with that on early downs. More likely would be jones as a 5 tech in a bennett role, reed as 3 tech, a nose and taylor/mafe with nwosu playing sam in that bruce irwin hybrid role. Which in a 4-3 under is basically a 3-4. And in obvious pass situations, the nose comes off the field, jones kicks in as a 3 tech and nwosu rushes from a wide 9.
So we still need a big bodied nose for early downs and its not that important if we play a 4-3 or 3-4. Its more important that we have enough players for the different alignments and situations.
That’s the main thing. Regardless of what type of front Seattle is playing for a given situation, DL is absolutely a need that has to be addressed with an influx of talent. Both Mafe and Taylor are useless at this point in anything but a pass rush situation. Do we really want to go into the season with a primary edge plan of starting someone that lost snaps to Bruce Irvin? I would expect a healthy mix of odd and even fronts throughout the course of games, and as you said, we need enough players (10 or 11) that can be configured for gameday to meet the defensive plan for the week. And, every bit as important…we need to have quality players to anchor that rotation.
Did he lose snaps to Irvin or has Pete shown consistently that he’ll play veterans over rookies for reasons?
Pretty sure this is the same guy who scratched Robinson and signed Luke Wilson to literally chearlead.
Playing one person over another is literally losing snaps. PCJS have consistently talk about being a developmental organization.
I feel ya. But Kam chancellor played special teams for a whole year. Pete’s always doing this stuff. Development or not I wouldn’t count it as made losing snaps to irvin.
Yup, every player develops at a different rate. Milloy was just the better player that year. But, Kam was ready to take over by the end of the year. Irvin was still the best option through the playoffs last year. I really hope we see a big improvement from the young guys this season, but would feel better with Anderson/McDonald/Smith on the team.
I wish but sadly this seems very unlikely to happen.
He’s a big part of our plans….2020, 2021, 2022, etc…
I suspect Boye Mafe would start over Taylor.
Ran a couple 3 round mocks for fun:
7.
Will Levis
QB Kentucky
trade icon
SEA
30.
Will McDonald IV
EDGE Iowa State
trade icon
SEA
37.
Josh Downs
WR North Carolina
SEA
38.
Mazi Smith
DT Michigan
trade icon
SEA
52.
Joe Tippmann
OC Wisconsin
SEA
62.
Drew Sanders
LB Arkansas
trade icon
2024 BAL 2nd
2024 NO 2nd
Second mock:
7.
Anthony Richardson
QB Florida
trade icon
SEA
30.
Calijah Kancey
DT Pittsburgh
trade icon
SEA
38.
Josh Downs
WR North Carolina
trade icon
SEA
47.
Adetomiwa Adebawore
EDGE Northwestern
trade icon
SEA
52.
John Michael Schmitz
OC Minnesota
SEA
57.
Luke Musgrave
TE Oregon State
trade icon
SEA
62.
Derick Hall
EDGE Auburn
trade icon
2024 JAX 2nd
Mock 2 is a slam dunk. I doubt it can happen, but I would be elated if it did.
Another thought on Carter the wonderkid… sure he did pretty well, when he was in, and that’s not often as we know. But the thing that doesn’t get talked about is that when he gets to the pro’s he won’t be having any “easy” matchups.. you think he gets gassed now, wait until every o line man he faces is 6-5, and 340 lbs, and in pristine shape. They will also be the cream of the crop, and not just another college chump. And every one of them will be chomping at the bit to give him a bit of the business… welcome to bigs rook!
Giving a little too much credit to O-lineman around the league…
Haha 100%. Like they never take plays off. And pristine shape – not so sure they are all sculpted like Greek gods and have endless energy.
But I see the point though – he will get punished he’s not in good shape.
Regardless of where he’s drafted, I really don’t have any doubt that Jalen Carter is going to light up Sportscenter for a couple of years with some ridiculous plays where he makes NFL linemen look fool children.
The problem is, you’re going to get one or two of those plays a game. The rest of the time, he will be a non-factor on the field or huffing oxygen on the sideline. If you spend a top 5 pick on that, you deserve what’s coming.
What if the team moving up to #2 is the Seahawks, jumping Indy to get Levis?
This should be the plan…
1. Anderson
2. Richardson
3. Levis
4. Trade down (try to get a 2024 1st from Raiders, Titans, Texans, or Bucs…Or get extra 2nds/3rds).
I think it is great that we all have different answers on the order of preference. Credit Rob for not giving his own order on the QBs and framing his preference mainly as the Seahawks.
For me it is pretty clear.
1. Richardson
2. Stroud
3. Anderson
4. Levis
5. Young
I just think the defensive line and defense in general can be improved later in the draft, putting my two favorite QBOTF ahead of Anderson.
1. Stroud
1. Levis
1. Richardson
4. What?
5. Huh?
I am assuming Young goes to the panthers.
Stroud > Richardson. Watch their performances against Georgia…and please, no excuses about their supporting casts.
Stroud
Richardson
Anderson
Levis
Trade down
Anderson, Richardson, Levis, Stroud, no particular order, and if you have the feeling you miss out on all of them, trade up. I’ll be very disappointed to see us trading down.
Part of me is cheering for the Hawks to trade up to #2 and take Levis.
I’m not. Whoever John wants at 5 will still be available at 39 so why give up the farm??
No farms up for grabs.
Go and get your guy, simple as that.
Are you saying Levis will be available in the 2nd round? Because that’s just not happening.
Of course not. What he’s saying is, you can’t sit at #5 and hope your guy falls to you. You are too close and god knows how long before you ever have a chance like this again. Trade up and make sure you get your guy, whoever it is, before you watch another team do it.
Sorry, replied to the wrong comment.
Re: the defensive scheme change –
With the signing of Julian Love and the more hybrid ends/linebackers coming out of a 3-4, maybe I was just a few years too early?
https://seahawksdraftblog.com/guest-post-russell-cook-proposes-a-defensive-switch
👍
Pete had a rousing appearance at the Kraken game. Good message, no draft hints.
I just got home from the Kraken game. We lost, but it was electric in there tonight. Such a great time. It can’t compare to football but I was having Seahawks circa 2012 vibes. NHL playoff hockey is really some fun shit. Every game seems to get more and more amped on both sides. Pete came out to chew some gum and get the squid mafia fired up. It was a great time, despite the loss.
Flew back to Seattle to see a couple shows at the arena last weekend, man I love the new (old) stadium. Sound is great, the upper section is so steep its still feels small, and so thankful the old roofline is there for sentimental sake. So great to have the hockey team and spectacular arena.
Good lord. have you seen this garbage? Starts with the premise that Houston takes Anderson, which could well happen, Then has us taking Tyree Wilson #5 and Quentin Johnston at #20, while Anthony Richardson falls to the Vikings at #23.
You can’t make this shit up.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/nfl-mock-draft-2023-how-texans-passing-on-c-j-stroud-for-will-anderson-changes-the-draft/ar-AA1abO8k?ocid=hplocalnews&cvid=68efd9ca8f5747c497a3e775b9ef9f61&ei=103
You can and they do if you want the viqueens to get him.
Mike florio with a pseudonym making mocks for MSN?
He’s a huge vikings honk.
Great podcast Rob
Fascinating news from Sherman which turns some of the definitely focus on its head.
Rewatch the last game of the season and our defense sure couldn’t stop anything the 49ers did. It was a mess!!
Glad if we switch to a 4-3, feels like we didn’t have the talent or players that fit. Tough transition without it being a foundation as a scheme and having guys grow up in it lit Pitt or NE.
Also feel like the players coming out (at least this year) are a better fit and it opens up a lot more options esp wrt to bigger DEs and smaller LBs who can maybe play better in space.
Finally I’m getting jittery about whether we get one of our favorite guys but keep thinking I/we shouldn’t be. Picking 5th is an unexpected gift and should be happy that the 5th overall will be an impact player.
Thanks again for all the hard work – hopefully soon time to sit back and enjoy it.
Sorry about the grammar
To be fair not many stopped the 49ers doing what they wanted.
True, don’t want to completely stop them just score more…
I’ve been thinking all along that a trade to 2 would be in the best interest of both teams. Texans are probably making sure that Young will go 1st before making the trade.
Houston won’t want to deal with Indy or Titans. So there’s two teams not making it to 2. Leaves Vegas as a possible partner but moving to 7 and a 2nd or future 1st not as appealing as 5 and 20.
If Seattle is looking at JMS or Tippman as their next WANT/need one should be there at 37. There are some interesting edge guys in 2/3 as well.
Iron price….go get Richardson.
100% agree. Houston won’t want to move down further than #5 and were the perfect trade partner. It would be tough to lose #20, but I’d rather do that than sit and watch another team beat us to it.
Hoooooo boy. JMS at #5 in this one. Unreal.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/nfl-mock-draft-4-0-changes-at-the-top-as-we-enter-final-week-following-latest-free-agency-moves/ar-AA1ac2im?ocid=hplocalnews&cvid=910c741aa0f64eea9c2e9d30d3eb4837&ei=11
As someone who fairly firmly believes positional value is a construct and not a practice…..JMS at #5 and then Trenton Simpson #20….
Time to shut it down boys. That’s the wish.com version of an actual draft.
Wow! It takes some real effort to do a mock that bad…
They even misspell Smith-Njigba
Dude, they would put mayor McCheese at 5 and prince at 20 if someone snuck their names into the hat they draw from. At this point it seems like people are trying to out-ridiculous each other.
LOL Anyone have a short shuttle time on Mayor McCheese?
Pj….wtf😆
Mayor McCheese.
How’s his 10 yrd split?
Gotta love the people on Rob’s videos and elsewhere in the seahawks- verse that are more concerned with with genos feelings and whether or not it’s “fair,” to Wagner and Geno to try to build a great all the time roster for years over pushing all their chips in this year to send the lads off with a bang.
I mean if Pete and John cared about Lockett and Wagner and sending them home on a high note….maybe they wouldn’t have bombed years of drafts?
Unfun fact: Tyler Lockett has only experienced the Divisional Round of the playoffs twice in his Seahawks career. The Seahawks have lost both times. He’s never played in the NFCCG.
Tyler is the man….
And I hope he gets to see it. I just think until we can get passed the niners/ eagles it might not happen.
I was hoping they would return to a 4/3 dense. I think this draft is more 4/3 friendly. Would Will McDonald or Nolan Smith be that Leo role or would they be more of an OLB. Also I wonder if the Ohio train wreck Disaster is affecting colleges near there Dioxins in the air and water are dangerous. I might stay away from Ohio and Pennsylvania colleges
Watching CJ Stroud interviews, I could imagine how some teams might be put off by his nonchalant, colloquial demeanor; but he also comes off as competitive and gritty, so he seems like a guy Carroll would love to get his hands on.
Wouldn’t it be amazing to land both Stroud and his center Wypler, who he speaks highly of?
There’s a parallel universe somewhere where the Seahawks draft Stroud, Smith-Njigba, and Wypler.
Sign me up. Every one of those dudes are ballers.
Basically, if Stroud or Anthony Richardson isn’t a Seahawk come Friday morning I’m going to be one sad boy.
I completely agree but would add Levi’s to the short list. If we don’t nab one of them the Wilson trade haul is fully tarnished.
Richardson is my guy; Jalen Carter is…NOT my guy. However, if both were to fall to #5 and the Hawks were to choose Carter, I don’t think I would be sad so much as surprised—left to conclude that I’ve been wrong about both guys all along.
Rob, you are the #1 Seahawk authority
and your supreme talents are going to catapult you in a big time way.
Thank you for everything over the years but this year has been your best ever!!!
Thank you Stuart 👍🏻
I hope it literally doesn’t catapult me somewhere but figuratively that would be nice 😂
I keep having this thought that the next owner of the Seahawks is lurking on SDB and when they buy the team the first thing they do is secure Rob as part of the scouting department/brain trust.
We all know the good news part of that. The bad news is this blog, as we know it, will be no longer. (sob!)
True fans of the Seahawks will rejoice. The long time SDB regulars, like me, will have a hollow spot that can not be filled. By anything. Ever again.
This is really special and I wrote the above, as we enter the lead up to the draft and the climax week for all this, to remind those that read the comments that we should be in the moment and really appreciate this experience, this gift that Rob works so hard to give us, and Seahawk fandom in general. Be kind to yourself, be kind to others and especially be kind to Rob and please, if you can, send him some reward via Patreon. It is our only material way to thank him, and he really deserves being thanks. Thanks Rob!
Great content Rob! This is such an exciting time. If we do go back to a 43 I bet we have a hand shake deal with Poona. Never know who is gonna be cut after June 1st following the draft but Poona was good for us in the 43. If it is true I’d also like to see Kancey at 20 or after a little trade back. Interior pressure is Pete’s white whale and the kid can go. It hurts to miss on a McDonald but I think you can get a guy like Hall later
True. McDonald would be great, but there’s no one else like Kancey. If they really like him, take him.
A couple of questions regarding the possible scheme change.
What is Will Anderson’s best position in a 4-3? Is he a SAM in base who moves up to the line in passing downs? (with Jones kicking inside?)
If it’s really happening is the FO keeping quiet about it until after the draft to keep their cards held tight?
I think he would make an elite SAM. However is that really what you want from a top 5 pick?
You’d want a top 5 to be ‘elite’, so have you answered your own question?
If he helps you win a Super Bowl then sure.
Mostly I’m curious whether a scheme shift changes where Anderson is on the Seahawks’ big board.
Would Will Anderson just play LEO then?
Ive got a gripe. When I talk to people about drafting a qb I’m constantly told about how many 1st round qbs bust. Its true many of them do, in fact well over half. But everyone says that like rounds 2 through 7 produce a 90% success rate! The bust rate tends to get higher as you go further down the draft, especially if you remove the very few outliers like Brady and Russ who are the rarest of finds. Just because draft picks bust doesn’t mean you should never draft a qb. How the hell else do you get a franchise guy? Also they don’t acknowledge the high bust rate of every position in the 1st round or any other round for that matter. Playing professional football is hard and it’s just as hard to find the guys that are wired to do it. I know this has been said in a thousand different ways around here over the last couple months but we’ve run out of new things anyway. Can’t wait for draft day.
I’ve had people tell me if Geno turns back into a pumpkin, we can just go get get a veteran franchise QB via trade or free agency. Like Brady, Rogers, Russell all moving to nerw teams later in their careers. Don’t waste first round capital on an unproven QB prospect.
This is all said with a straight face and total earnestness. Like its somehow better to trade away even more draft capital and spend 50M+ on an established QB than to place a bet on the next generation of passers.
It has been engrained into the culture here in Seattle though. That’s why you cannot make any headway.
Zorn-UDFA
Krieg-UDFA
Hasselbeck-6th round Seahawks got for a swap of picks and a 3rd
RW-3rd round
Geno-journeyman nobody wanted
Meanwhile, the only high QB picks in Seattle history were bombs – McGwire and Mirer.
Fun story: Chuck Knox (who had success with UDFA Krieg) wanted to draft Brett Favre but was bigfooted by Ken Behring and they took McGwire. Knox told his staff to pack their bags because they would eventually get fired when McGwire flamed out.
Great point, as usual, Cha. I think we feel special that we can get it done with QBs like that.
“The bust rate tends to get higher as you go further down the draft.”
I’m with you overall, but I’ll go ahead and dispute this part. The term “bust” specifically applies to the gap between the resources spent on a draftee (or free agent) and the production ultimately harvested. Lesser draft picks (and lower-cost free agents) involve lesser resources, and thus the bust factor is also less, relatively speaking. Just to illustrate, if a team with one native pick in each round were to whiff on every pick, the bust factor would diminish with each selection. Any rookie acquired after Day Two can’t really bust. The same applies to free agents of varying costs sunk: A player of Dre Jones’s salary could bust, but a street free agent could not. (The antonym of “bust” would be “steal”, and it works exactly the same way but in the opposite direction.)
With draft vernacular in mind, I would just replace the term “bust rate” with “failure rate”. And yes, I share your gripe.
(This was for 509 Chris. Not sure why the reply started a new comment.)
This is a good point. I would ammend my statement then to franchise qb vs non franchise qb. Because even bust is rather subjective. Was Romo a bust? He never won a superbowl or many playoff games for that matter. Is Joe Flacco a bust? Many guys have played well at a high level but wont necessarily go down in the history books. I want my favorite franchise to have a special one at the position and hope they shoot for the best chance at a special face of the franchise type, which would be an early 1st rounder.
Interesting thought, bringing up Tony Romo. As an undrafted free agent who worked his way into a starting role and went on to earn four Pro Bowl appearances, he was a ridiculous steal, and this is ultimately how I remember him. Yes, once he was an established franchise quarterback commanding a sizey chunk of the salary cap, he became more known for his lack of playoff wins than anything, but he was already an overachiever. He wasn’t a winner, that’s undeniable, but he could never be considered a “bust”.
And Joe Flacco was definitely not a bust in any sense of the term. Baltimore did spend a high pick on him, but he delivered. He was a decade long starter for the Ravens, finishing 29 games over .500 as a regular season quarterback of record and winning 10 postseason games—including a Super Bowl victory (plus a Super Bowl MVP trophy, for any critic who might want to say his playoff success was all to the defense’s credit; Baltimore doesn’t win that second championship without his clutch play). Flacco wasn’t “statsy” by any stretch, but a franchise can’t expect much better from a 16th overall pick in the draft.
—
“I want my favorite franchise to have a special one at the position and hope they shoot for the best chance at a special face of the franchise type, which would be an early 1st rounder.”
Indeed, an early first-rounder is the best chance at special. Who knows, someone like Jaren Hall, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, or Hendon Hooker might go on to have a better career than some (or all) of the big four 2023 prospects, but the odds are against it. Like you said, Tom Brady and Russell Wilson were outliers.
Draft player X, position Y has an abc bust rate etc etc etc.
It looks to me a more common path to the SB is to draft a talented QB and during their 1st contract get some key players on the DL via trase/F, not the other way around.
Sure top tier DL is expensive in trade/FA, but it CAN be done. The other happens (Rams. TB), but it doesnt seem to have the legs of QB via draft. DL via trade/FA (and draft)
You gotta take those high pick stabs at QB as opportunities present themseves unless yoy are totally set at the position.
I just shouldnt post using a phone, but I think the point is decipherable
Seems like this draft is set up to be the most unpredictable draft in quite some time.
I have no idea what’s going to happen at #2.
And it’s kinda exciting.
I’m also not sure which QB to root for. I thought Stroud would be the best option for the Seahawks…but given recent reports, I’m not so sure anymore. Still think he’s probably the best option but Richardson is tempting.
Thursday night is going to be FUN.
“Thursday night is going to be FUN.”
For some fraction of the Seahawk fan base, yes, it will be fun. But it could be fist-through-the-TV time for those on the other side of the wall—or should I say, ‘The Wall’, as in George R.R. Martin’s 700-foot-tall ice behemoth running from coast to coast…
I honestly won’t be surprised if Witherspoon or Gonzales is on the card at 5. If the Seahawks are as high on locker room leaders and looking for for high character players then a CB’s name on the card at 5 would not surprise me. Pete and John are always looking guys to compete.