Could Todd Gurley be a surprise top-five pick?
Last year the Jacksonville Jaguars caused a stir by drafting Blake Bortles with the #3 pick over Sammy Watkins and Khalil Mack.
Now it’s presumed they’ll take Amari Cooper, Dante Fowler Jr or Leonard Williams.
They could take Cooper to aid Bortles’ development. They did, however, draft two receivers in the second round last year and bring in Julius Thomas in free agency.
They could take Fowler Jr. to work the edge. They also had the sixth best pass rush in terms of sacks in 2014.
They could take Williams — but didn’t they already fill that role with Jared Odrick?
All three players could be in play. They appear to be a consensus ‘top three’ on most boards anyway. But if the Jaguars do provide a shock (again) — could it be Todd Gurley?
Ideally they’d trade down a few spots first but if they can’t, maybe they just take him? He’d provide a dynamic backfield option to take some of the pressure off Bortles. Gus Bradley knows full well how a tone-setting franchise back can benefit a team.
It’d be a shocking pick. Yet why else did talk of a possible trade involving Muhammad Wilkerson emerge this week? Possibly because the board could fall like this:
#1 Tampa Bay — Jameis Winston
#2 Tennessee (or trade) — Marcus Mariota
#3 Jacksonville — Todd Gurley
#4 Oakland — Amari Cooper
#5 Washington — Dante Fowler Jr.
#6 New York — Leonard Williams
Without the ACL injury Gurley would’ve been talked about as a sure-fire top-ten pick. With positive news about his knee emerging recently, he could still go in that range. It’ll be a surprise if it happens. It probably shouldn’t be.
Don’t forget to join us for our live Google Hang Out this evening throughout the first round.
Possible Hawks trade: trade Bruce Irvin to Atlanta for their 2nd and another pick and draft Eli Harold to replace Bruce Irvin with the 2nd we get from Atlanta. Cap savings!
Love that idea, it also would assure wagner is signed as well.
Or DGB
With Matthews stepping up in the Super Bowl I doubt the Hawks have nearly as much interest in DGB as the people on this board. I look for Matthews and Norwood to have big years in 2015. DGB would be redundant. We should focus on the O Line and the pass rush.
Seattle is interested in DGB.
DGB would come with a cheap 4 year contract for russell to grow with. As good as mathews looked in one game he was still a jump ball artist and didn’t get separation. Where mathews could be a good scheme fit DGB could be a dominant #1 that doesn’t need a scheme to succeed.
Matthews appeared to play just fine used as the X or Z receiver in their scheme. He didn’t require any special scheme for him to do well on the deep routes he ran. He did create separation using other methods at his disposal that he lacks from raw speed. Though it’s not like DGB blew people away with his raw speed at the combine either.
He might have more explosive upside than Matthews to become a ‘dominant #1’, but at the cost it would take to move up to get him as it appears right now I don’t think right now is justified. Matthews will be on a cost controlled cheap contract too.
All of his catches were jump balls, there was no separation. They only targeted him when he was covered by there 3rd or 4th db With success. They had to use a scheme with him to get the match up they could take advantage of. The main thing that’s impressive with DGB is the separation he gets for a player his size and he potentially won’t have to be lined up against a weaker opponent to be effective. We have mathews for two more years but DGB would be here for 4. If they view him as a potential top 10 wr in the leage how is a trade up in the 2nd not justifiable?
That’s categorically untrue. Wilson continued to target him after they rotated Browner on him. He was targeted an additional two times with Browner on him, and he caught one of them. Since he was only targeted 5 times throughout the game, that means 40% of his targets came with Browner covering him.
If you care, watch the All 22 of every route he runs. He was able to create separation. Your impressions that he wasn’t able to aren’t accurate.
DGB had numerous run ins with the police, usually involving marijuana. He pushed a woman down some stairs. His teammates report he failed to learn the whole playbook and needed the play explained to him in the huddle. His routes were limited to curls, slants and go routes. He hasn’t played in 20 months. Yeah, he has impressive physical measurements. If he was serious about his future he should have stayed in school to prove he can stay clear of the problems and be a good addition to an NFL team. Coming out early tells me he is only interested in the money. He is not the guy you want to pair up with Russell Wilson. While RW is studying film late at night where is DGB going to be? You cannot trust him. Other than this website, I have heard zero buzz about the Seahawks drafting DGB.
Good points. This nicely articulates why I’m not as high ON DGB to Seattle as most.
I wouldn’t worry too much bigD he’ll be off the board in the bottom 3rd of the 1st round. Seattle won’t even have a chance to touch him.
It’s cool HLC. You don’t like DGB.
But there’s no need to discount something that’s been reported through multiple independent sources because you don’t agree with it, or to imply that the only reason SDBers think so is because Rob reported it.
I could write an entire post on all the prospects you never heard buzz about elsewhere who became Seahawks after Rob identified them well in advance of their draft.
“Other than this website, I have heard zero buzz about the Seahawks drafting DGB.”
Reported or suggested in many different places, including by the respected Tony Pauline most recently.
” Other than this website, I have heard zero buzz about the Seahawks drafting DGB.”
I don’t see this at all. This site was pretty openly hostile to taking DGB in the early process.
I advocated the pick since he declared. But I was kind of alone in that sentiment at the time. I’m sure Rob got tired of responding to my comments advocating our taking him.
The one think I love about this site, is that it’s heavily populated with reasonable contributors. Fans that won’t merely drop an opinion and leave it at that. There is a depth to the discussion here that is rare. And we see all the time how discussion can lead to deeper reflection on our opinions of players. We state our opinions and give our rationale freely. In fact, this community is very rich and respectful even in disagreement. It’s actually downright hostile to personal attacks on reasoned opinions.
It’s a community that doesn’t merely fixate on the typical 1st round talents. It goes much further and in depth. And people here often change their minds or at least re-examine prospects based on what we read here.
I’d say this site has really raked DGB over the coals so to speak. I do think there has been some warming up to him over time. Not merely here. But on other teams’ fan sites and draft blogs elsewhere. This was a guy pegged in the tail end of R2 all the way to R4 on some sites. But he’s now starting to get consideration in R1 again, and with a floor of early R2. Obviously this isn’t just this site’s doing.
“This site was pretty openly hostile to taking DGB in the early process.”
Yep. I’m still not fully convinced.
Seattle has one of the weakest receiving corps on the league. For some reason they didn’t trust Norwood last year and Matthews could be a one game wonder. I could easily see them having interest in a big athletic receiver with good hands and decent route running.
One option with Irvin is to let him play out his rookie contract and let him walk.
The Hawks get a year of a highly-motivated Irvin (this next deal would likely be his best since his age doesn’t dictate a huge third contract), groom KPL or 2015 draft pick for his spot, let him walk in 2016 for a pretty healthy contract and pocket the compensatory pick in the 2017 draft.
I would have no problem with this either. Trading him for anything less then a high second, witch I think is unlikely, wouldn’t be worth it. Letting him play out his contract would probably be best but eli Harold would be real nice.
Yeah, obviously you only make a trade for something better than [1 year of Bruce + 2017 comp pick].
Agree. The value of how Irvin plays in 2015+how much $$ he gets in his FA deal to determine the comp pick round is a much more known commodity than how a 2015 draft pick we’d trade him for this year for would turn out.
Add in the Super Bowl window and it seems to make more sense to play it out rather than trade.
Got to much time invested in finding a spot and coaching him up to play it. Now that he knows his position let him play really good for us and then he can go get the big dollars and help us some more.
Ben2, I am against anything that loses Irvin. Anything short of landing D Fowler/Beasley/Ray. Harold is a notch below, and there is no guarantee that they could move high enough to get even him. We would be talking high #30s at a minimum.
The Super Bowl window is not long term. Lose any more personnel for cap savings, and you risk a lot.
I would have really preferred keeping Irvin to Wright. Irvin provides a DE on passing downs. How do you know Harold will be as good as Irvin? I would rather trade Irvin for Wilkerson and get the push from the inside.
I think it’s unlikely Irvin is traded. Falcons putting the feelers out so they can target O-line in round one.
The leak is probably coming from Irvin’s agent. It is unlikely Seattle of Atlanta would tip their hand right before the draft. What value would that serve either franchise?
I hope. Irvin can play all 3 downs. Could it be Bennett for a 2nd? I would rather do that, Bennett wants out anyway. What about Wright, could he be shipped?
Any other tidbits out there Rob?
Where did you hear Bennett wants out? We know he wants more money, but wanting out is something completely different.
Just his comments. He is a money guy. He got his money and is still a money guy. Hawks want people who want to be here.
Did you see Irvin’s comments that he wants to play for the falcons and after Quinn went there he only had “one more year” left before he (Irvin) could make it happen?
To me wanting more money is what Lynch did. Wanting out, is what Adrian Peterson is doing. I’m looking at the Bennett situation as more of a Lynch scenario. In any event, Bennett is stuck. Seattle holds the cards with him.
My opinion is they don’t trade Irvin, however. I think you have to have a second round pick minimum. I think Irvin for one year + 4th round compensatory pick > 3rd rounder.
I’d want them to only make a trade for a second rounder minimum.
I didn’t see those comments by Irvin but if he did say those things then moving him makes a lot more sense.
I understand the Bennett Atlanta stuff was legit. I think Atlanta wants to trade for a pass rusher and draft an O-Liner in round one. There is not an ideal LEO (length/speed) in this class. Things could get interesting tonight after the first round. If they take a pass rusher in round one, forget the rumours.
Irvin for Wilkerson? Wow Irvin is really being overrated. I’m not sure how much we would get in a trade with him. His pass rushing skill is far more valuable than his linebacker play (just because teams want pass rushers badly). However, he’s not that good of a pass rusher. He’s very inconsistent and that has always been the case. When Avril went down in the Superbowl, Irvin and Schofield couldn’t adequately replace him and the pass rush disappeared.
Quinn knows this and probably wouldn’t be offering more than a 4th for him. If we somehow get a 3rd or even a 2nd for him (maybe swap 2nd’s and get another pick), then do it! Otherwise I would be totally fine keeping Irvin because he’s a solid linebacker.
Vrtkolman, how would you propose to replace Irvin? Who is a better pass rusher who can be plugged in immediately? He is still among the top pass rushers in the NFL.
I don’t think you replace Irvin specifically (which is why keeping him this year is still a great idea). Losing him as a linebacker would be far worse than losing his pass rushing. I’m guess I’m not seeing where Irvin is a top pass rusher in the NFL. He only has one move. I suspect if Bennett and Avril were not on the D line at the same time, Irvin’s pass rushing impact would be minimal. Remember in the Superbowl, the line of Bennett/Schofield/Irvin was providing absolutely nothing after Avril went out.
We could improve the pass rush in other areas too. Upgrading from Schofield could be pretty easy, hell they could sign Dwight Freeney right now and that would be an upgrade.
You don’t know but if you can’t pay him but get something in return for him it fits the win forever scheme. I’m not sure Wilkerson will work because he needs to be paid as well.
If you can’t pay him 8+M per year, and he plays out the last year and leaves… You don’t get nothing in return. The Hawks will get a 2017 comp pick in probably the 3-4th round range for that type of contract.
So by letting him “Byron Maxwell” you get a cheap year of production, you stay in good standing with your players, and you get a good future comp pick. It is not that bad of an idea.
I would rather trade Bennett to Atlanta for that pick. He is a me guy and Bruce is a team guy.
To say Bennett is a ‘me’ guy as opposed to Irvin seems pretty myopic seeing how Irvin just finished his 3rd year in the league. If Irvin was in his prime earning years he could very well be just as much wanting to be paid what he’s worth every bit as much as Bennett.
Maybe, but Irvin was a rookie DE with 8 sacks, then moved to SLB his second year and struggled a bit, but continually improved. His third year he moved from SLB to DE and was a playmaker. He has continually been moved around and never said a word. Just worked hard and became an every down, any position playmaker.
Bennett is a much better pass rusher (from the edge as well as inside) than Irvin. I like Irvin and he’s been a good/solid player but he’s much easier to replace then Bennett. I do have doubts whether KPL can adequately replace Irvin and that’s why unless we get a high 2nd round for him, I would much prefer that we keep him for one year and then get the comp pick when he eventually signs a FA deal with another team next year.
Ed, Bennett has been moved all over the defensive line too playing different positions to get the best matchup and versatility out of him. He did so without complaint. He was also made to play 300 more snaps this year than his first year here, he also did that without complaint. He also played his initial year on a discount and re-signed with Seattle for less money last year. I really don’t see where this ‘me’ first thing is coming from in your characterization of him. He’s a vet and a dominant DE/DT who is one of the very best at the league at his position. He has an ego about it just like other guys on our defense do about being the best at what they do.
But your talking about the difference between a high 2nd and low 3rd or 4th. That’s a 2 to 3 rd difference. I really want bruce on the team but a high 2nd is to good to pass up
Rob, I was wondering what your take on rashad greene was? Not a player I really like but is consistently talked about as a 2nd or 3rd prospect that we never talk about. I think Baldwin is a good comparison skill set wise.
Reliable, perfect for a shorter passing team that works the underneath and middle. Third rounder for me.
That’s basically what I see him as and the reason why he’s not talked about here. Not that he’s not good just that the need isn’t there and a little high for his skill set.
Rashad Greene would be nothing more than a Doug Baldwin plug-in, not an improvement. If there were no Baldwin, he and many other smurfs and semi-smurfs with no unusual quality (extra speed, etc.) would be good choices.
In the back of mind, I do wonder about the wisdom of an eventual replacement, if Baldwin leaves for free agency.
To the topic at hand — I would not be stunned by a move like that from Jacksonville. I do think it’s only feasible though if all indications are Gurley will play this year and not have to sit. And his recovery coupled with injury history is a concern.
However, the new rookie contracts provides team with much more flexibility, mainly the ability to take whomever the hell you want. Tampa Bay doesn’t not even have to take Winston or Mariota, though they will but most likely only to save face, or because they’re supposed to. The pressure is there and they don’t seem to be a confident organization, could they handle the scrutiny of doing it their own way?
Bortles is only getting 5 mil a year. Gurley would be slightly higher. Perhaps a lot for a unproven rookie with injuries, but not the disastrous effect that Bradford had on the Rams for all those years. Certainly something to consider for Jacksonville.
Nothing to do with Gurley, who I think shouldn’t be picked at #3, but food for thought:
Yesterday in a comments section I said that just because Washington set the bar for trading for the #2 pick shouldn’t mean that other GMs should follow them off the stupidity cliff. That Cleveland’s 12 and 19 should be enough. Another person implied (rightly so) that we shouldn’t judge the deal so harshly because RGIII got hurt. (Although I’ll say that’s part of the assumed risk when you put all your eggs in one basket). Earlier we’ve seen studies showing that trading up usually doesn’t work, and on the radio this a.m. I heard a Titans beat reporter talk about how Cleveland’s #12 and #19 are just the low starting point, and Jimmy’s ‘draft value chart’ suggests an additional 2nd and 4th should be included.
I think trading up is usually a bad choice because the draft value chart is just wrong. The correction is taking too long for otherwise smart people.
I looked at 20 years of draft data to see whether #2 was really “worth” more than #12 and #19. Short answer: it hasn’t been. If you own #12 and #19, you are usually better off than the team with #2.
Looked from 1985-2004. 14 of those 20 years (based on PFR’s CareerAV stat, which I understand has its limits), the #2 pick was outplayed by either the #12 or the #19. Six of 20, the #2 was outplayed by both. In two other years, the combined value of both was more than the value of the #2 pick.
In other words, 8 out of 10 years, you’d have been better off with 12 and 19 than you would have been with #2 (assuming you made the same picks).
True but the right qb is worth more then a rb/wr or any other positions you could get. Not saying the qbs this year would be the right one but the potential for a great qb is worth more then the potential of 2 other positions.
Agree, but this isn’t the first time a team thought the QB was that special. Three times in those twenty years a QB was taken #2. Once it was great (McNabb), and twice it was a disaster (Leaf, Mirer). And interesting that the only times a QB at #2 was also the second QB taken it didn’t work out at all.
Also just heard Casserly say you stay at #2 to get the star player, not numbers. In the drafts I looked at, more star players came from the 12/19 group than the #2 group.
Before Seattle traded their 1sr round pick away I was willing to move up and grab him and red shirt the guy for a year. I thought that was a good scenario for us. Bradley and Quinn both came for PC system and were part of the rebuilding of our team so they definitely understand the power of a good running game. Neither of them really has that type of RB on their teams so it not impossible for this to happen in Jax or Atlanta.
I had to throw 1 more mock out there. If I get 2 right, I’ll be a happy camper.
31 Jimmy Graham 6’7″ 265lbs 35″arms 10 5/8″hands
http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/jimmy-graham?id=497236
63 Ali Marpet G/C 6’4″ 307lbs. 33 3/8″arms 10″hands
http://www.fanaticalyankee.com/2015-nfl-draft-scouting-reports/category/alexander-marpet
95 Mitch Morse C/G 6’5″ 305lbs. 32 1/4″arms 9 1/4″hands
http://www.fanaticalyankee.com/2015-nfl-draft-scouting-reports/category/mitch-morse
112 Marcus Hardison DT(3-tech) 6’3″ 307lbs. 33 1/2″arms 10 3/8″hands
http://www.fanaticalyankee.com/2015-nfl-draft-scouting-reports/category/marcus-hardison
130 Tony Lippett WR/CB/ST 6’2″ 192lbs. 32 3/4″arms 9 7/8″hands
http://www.fanaticalyankee.com/2015-nfl-draft-scouting-reports/category/tony-lippett
134 Kenny Bell WR/PR/KR 6’1″ 197lbs. 31 5/8atms 9 1/4″hands
http://www.fanaticalyankee.com/2015-nfl-draft-scouting-reports/category/kenny-bell
167 Tyeler Davison DT(1-tech) 6’2″ 316lbs. 34″arms 10 3/4″hands
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/profiles/tyeler-davison?id=2552329
170 Tyrus Thompson T 6’5″ 324lbs. 34 7/8″arms 10 1/4″hands
http://www.fanaticalyankee.com/2015-nfl-draft-scouting-reports/category/tyrus-thompson
181 Aalana Fua OLB 6’5″ 238lbs. 32″arms 10 1/8″hands
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/profiles/alani-fua?id=2552683
209 Greg Mancz C/G/T 6’4″ 301lbs. 10″hands
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/profiles/greg-mancz?id=2552244
214 DeAndre Smelter WR 6’2″ 226lbs. 32 5/8″arms 11″hands
http://www.fanaticalyankee.com/2015-nfl-draft-scouting-reports/category/deandre-smelter
248 Thomas Rawl RB 5’9″ 215lbs. 30 3/4″arms 9 1/2″hands
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/profiles/thomas-rawls?id=2552648
UDFA Doniel Grambrell T 6’6″ 315lbs.
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/profiles/doniel-gambrell?id=2553167
That should have enough WR for you Steele 1324 and because of their versatility they should have no problem making the roster. A lot of the latter round WR, in my opinion, just wouldn’t make it onto this roster like Chris Harper last year. Picks 167 and 170 are really questionable as to whether they will still be available.
Leterrius Walton or Christian Covington are options here for DT
Laurence Gibson or Rob Crisp are options here for T
The 2 picks are so close that either DT or T could go in either place this is just where I put those 2 position to be drafted at. Kenny Bell could be switched to the 5th but to me he’s to damn good. I wouldn’t rule out a Sequin Golson CB. I really like the guy and I think he could become an all pro nickel corner which I see becoming more important in the league. A picture of Tony Pauline’s 1st 150 draft board had him at 109 which I think is to high for Seattle to go.
I like everything about Williams who I mocked before. 4 Year starter, big,powerful, nasty attitude, and he leads by example on the field and he’ll be a great guard in a power scheme but not in ZBS. Its still a real possibility though but I highly doubt it. I think I did it more because its a head scratcher that makes you say REALLY. You know a out of the box Seattle draft pick. Ali Marpet on the other hand is a SPARQ demon and fits like a glove. Guys like Ali have to have drive to build their bodies up to preform like that. He also demonstrated at the Senior Bowl that he has the intelligence to learn since he had never played guard and showed a lot of improvement over that week. If Seattle would take Irving in the first, there is no reason why they wouldn’t take this guy in the 2nd. Seattle loves guys with great potential that need coaching and Cable is one of the best, in my opinion. There could be a fight this year at the LT spot. This will be Gilliam 3rd year and if Okung should get injured in camp you can say bye, bye. Another I would watch is McNeil at WR spot. They did the same thing last year with Mathews and he made the team. To think about it they also did it with Baldwin and Kearse. I watch a lot of tape on him playing in the Area league and he looks legit to me. He big, super quick, and is a superb hands catcher that snatch’s the ball out of the air. I didn’t draft a SS because I pretty sure Dion Bailey is better than the talent we would be looking at. I think I said it once before but he was so close to making it last year if Kam hadn’t been hurt to start the season. Well I’ve rambled on and probably said to much already. What I can say is I’m a fanatic fan that just loves this game and the Seahawks. Thank you Rob for the website so I can speak out about my favorite team. Like RW, I’ll finish by saying, “GO HAWKS”.
Seeing how NFL.com is reporting a team as having Gurley #1 on their board your thinking is that maybe it’s the Jags that have him there? It’s interesting speculation, I’d still be shocked if they use their high pick to draft him. Maybe they swing a trade back.
Bruce ain’t going nowhere. He’s Avrils replacement after this season.
Avril signed a 4 year extension last year. Avril isn’t going anywhere.
It wasn’t 4 years. He can be cut.
Why would we cut Avril?
We wouldn’t.
Yes it was 4 years.
http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/154821/cliff-avril-has-a-special-feeling-after-signing-his-contract-extension
That’s a scary thought.
There will be a link on the home page for the google hang out, I assume?
If possible, take the generational talent. May not always pan out. But it’s the best place to start.
Gurley is generally regarded as the best RB prospect since AP in 2007. 8 years is about the lifespan of an NFL RB. If JAX thinks Gurley is the best back to come out in the past 8 years, then they think he’s generational.
The same calculus applies to prospects at other position groups, like EDGE Fowler (exceptional but not generational IMO), WR Cooper (again, exceptional but not generational).
I think ATL want Gurley and are looking to shore up their pass rush through other means (Irvin). If they can get a rusher like Irvin, that frees them up to address the other gaping hole in their roster at RB. Quinn is a PC disciple, understands the importance of the run game, and might see Gurley as his Lynch.
Of course everything I just said about ATL (Quinn) applies to JAX (Bradley).
Rob, any plans to do a day 2 hang out despite the un-Godly hours?
Yes there will be a day two hang out.
You’re a beast, Rob. Hope you loaded up on sleep in the days leading up to the draft.
#NoTimeToSleep
Clayton recently made the good point that in this draft, like 2013, with a paucity of first round graded prospects, removing the first round grades of several of those prospects just prior to the draft – Ray, Collins (2x), Gregory – will make for extreme volatility in the trade market as teams scramble to move out of low value positions and move into position to take advantage of falling value. Expect a possible record-breaking number of trades at the top of this draft.