The vertical jump is a key test for offensive linemen at the combine
What is TEF?
Last year we put together a formula (detailed here) based around Tom Cable’s self-confessed ‘ideal’ physical profile. We called it TEF (Trench Explosion Formula).
What exactly does it calculate?
Cable stated two years ago that a prospect would ideally achieve a 31-inch vertical, a 9-foot broad jump and 27 reps in the bench press. TEF uses these numbers to create an overall score for each individual offensive lineman:
1. Vertical ÷ 31
2. Broad ÷ 9, then cube the result
3. Bench ÷ 27
4. Results added together = TEF
Here’s what the ideal (31 — 9 — 27) would look like using this formula:
1. Vertical: 31 ÷ 31 = 1
2. Broad: 9 ÷ 9 = 1, cubed = 1
3. Bench: 27 ÷ 27 = 1
4. Overall score = 3.00
How do you judge an ‘ideal’ explosive athlete?
A prospect achieving the exact Cable ideal (31 — 9 — 27) will score a 3.00 in TEF.
How do you know it’s a worthwhile exercise?
When we went back and put Seattle’s recent draft picks through the formula, this is what we found:
Mark Glowinski: 3.34
Terry Poole: 3.12
Kristjan Sokoli: 3.75
Justin Britt: 3.00
Garrett Scott: 3.27
Ryan Seymour: 3.10
Jared Smith: 3.35
J.R. Sweezy: 3.13
Gary Gilliam (UDFA): 3.09
The Seahawks also passed on a collection of players scoring below the 3.00 threshold.
If explosive athleticism is so important, why did they reach for Justin Britt?
I’m glad you asked, because TEF perfectly explains the Britt pick in 2014. He was one of the last ‘explosive’ offense lineman on the board when the reigning Super Bowl champion Seahawks picked at the very end of round two:
#64 Justin Britt 3.00
#66 Morgan Moses: 2.69
#67 Billy Turner: 2.83
#140 Cameron Fleming: 2.45
#149 Kevin Pamphile: 2.96
#199 Garrett Scott: 3.27
Despite their greater name recognition and reputations, Seattle passed on Moses and Turner and selected the unknown Britt — the considerably more explosive athlete.
The next explosive O-liner to leave the board, Garrett Scott, was also drafted by the Seahawks 135 picks later. They passed on all of the names in-between Britt and Scott, none of which had the 3.00 score.
Remember, the Seahawks didn’t have a third round pick in 2014 because of the Percy Harvin trade. They needed a right tackle and were willing to reach to make sure they got an athlete matching their ideal physical profile.
You mocked Germain Ifedi to Seattle a year ago, so what did TEF tell us?
Ifedi, for what it’s worth, scored a 2.97 in TEF. He didn’t hit the 3.00 mark but let’s put this into context. In the bench press he achieved 24 reps. With 25 reps, he would’ve scored a 3.00. You’re not deciding whether or not to draft a player based on one bench press rep.
Why else did they take Ifedi if he scored a 2.97 and not a 3.00?
Size matters and for that, we have ‘weighted TEF’ (wTEF). Original TEF doesn’t really account for the players who are enormous (Ifedi) and test well for their size.
How does wTEF work?
Here’s the formula:
weight x TEF x 0.1 = wTEF
This accounts for a player at 325lbs (like Ifedi) having an incredible vertical and broad jump performance despite weighing 20-25lbs more than other O-line prospects. Weighted TEF considered Ifedi’s incredible size and suggested he was the third best overall athlete in the O-line class:
Germain Ifedi — 324 x 2.97 x 0.1 = 96.1
Spriggs, Jason — 104.9
McGovern, Conner — 101.4
Ifedi, Germain — 96.1
Shell, Brandon — 94.4
Vaitai, Halapoulivaati — 93.8
This helped us determine Ifedi was a distinct possibility for the Seahawks in round one and ultimately they drafted him.
For more on wTEF, click here. When we have the results of Friday’s workouts we’ll put the data for TEF and wTEF on the blog as soon as possible.
Is there anything else to consider?
Arm length, intelligence and grit are also important factors. The Seahawks have only drafted one lineman with sub-33 inch arms — Joey Hunt, a sixth round pick at center. Cable has specifically discussed the importance of intelligence and coachability. We also know they want players that play with an edge.
Are you doing anything different this year?
For 2017 we have tweaked the formula slightly (and made it better).
Because there are 12 inches in a foot, a broad jump of 9’11” was being recorded as a 10.0 in TEF. We were rounding up because we had to.
9’6″ = 9.6
9’11” does not = 9.11 in this formula
9’11” had to = 10
Any player jumping a 9’10” or 9’11” was being credited with a 10’0″ broad jump.
To overcome the issue we’re converting the jump to inches and then dividing by 12 (then dividing by 9 and cubing the total as before). Every inch is worth 0.083 instead of 0.1 and provides a more accurate assessment of a broad jump performance (and overall explosive athleticism).
It won’t impact the scores too much but they’ll be more accurate.
Can you use TEF for any other positions?
Because the offensive linemen directly face off against the defensive linemen, we can also use TEF to compare the two groups. Last year we identified only six ‘explosive’ offensive linemen compared to 26 explosive defensive linemen. It was unintentional — but TEF helped emphasise the growing physical disparity between D-line and O-line prospects entering the league.
Other FAQ’s
What is the overall benefit of the formula?
1. It provides leeway. If a prospect scores a slightly less than ideal score in the vertical jump, they can still achieve a +3.00 if they excel in the broad jump and/or bench press. A really explosive broad jumper who doesn’t quite bench 27 reps isn’t being severely critiqued for missing the ideal in one test.
2. We’re comparing a prospect to the self-confessed ideal of Seattle’s offensive line coach. Rather than just adding up a set of numbers, the grade is directly relevant to the Seahawks.
Why cube the broad jump score?
Let’s use Jason Spriggs’ TEF score a year ago to highlight why this is important:
1. Vertical: 35 ÷ 31 = 1.13
2. Broad: 9.7 ÷ 9 = 1.1
3. Broad cubed = 1.26
4. Bench: 31 ÷ 27 = 1.15
5. Added together Spriggs’ score is 3.54
Spriggs’ 9-7 in the broad jump is arguably more impressive than his 35 inch vertical or his 31 reps on the bench press. Without cubing his 1.1 score in the broad it would actually be marked as his weakest test. Instead it is correctly highlighted as his best work.
This is significant given Seattle’s clear interest in explosive measurements in the broad jump (explained here).
Why are you saying the prospect I like isn’t any good just because your formula gives him a low score?
I’m not and you’re getting it all wrong.
TEF is not asserting how good a player is. It is merely a formula to help us determine which offensive linemen physically match-up to Tom Cable’s stated ideals (and therefore are more likely to be drafted by the Seahawks). If a player scores a 2.65 it doesn’t mean I think he’s bad. If a player scores a 3.45 it doesn’t mean I think he’s going to be a regular all-pro. TEF is merely a guide for Seahawks fans to determine who is more likely to be drafted by the team.
TEF didn’t project Rees Odhiambo and Joey Hunt did it?
Their data was never accumulated. Joey Hunt didn’t workout pre-draft and Rees Odhiambo didn’t appear at the combine. He struggled through a pro-day appearance while still recovering from a serious injury. If you don’t have the numbers you can’t project a score.
How did this help a year ago?
Here are the predictions/assertions we made after collecting the 2016 data:
— The most likely offensive tackles to be drafted at #26 are Jason Spriggs and Germain Ifedi
Seattle drafted Ifedi after trading down to #31
— The Seahawks would probably love Sheldon Rankins to fall (but he won’t)
Rankins, commonly linked to the Seahawks at #26, was the #12 overall pick (New Orleans) and the #2 TEF tester in the draft
— Is Jonathan Bullard special enough to warrant a first round pick when there are comparable players in terms of explosion available beyond round one?
Bullard lasted until the third round with the Seahawks passing on him twice
2017 bench press results
The O-liners conducted the bench press today, the first part of the TEF equation:
Antonio Garcia — 24 reps
Garett Bolles — DNP
Dorian Johnson — 21 reps
Forrest Lamp — 34 reps
Taylor Moton — 23 reps
Cam Robinson — DNP
Nico Siragusa — 28 reps
David Sharpe — 19 reps
Ryan Ramcyzk — 25 reps
Ethan Pocic — 26 reps
Chad Wheeler — 15 reps
Zach Banner — 22 reps
Adam Bisnowaty — 23 reps
Julie’n Davenport — 18 reps
Dion Dawkins — 26 reps
Jermaine Eluemunor — 34 reps
Dan Feeney — 26 reps
Isaac Asiata — 35 reps
Aviante Collins — 34 reps
Sam Tevi — 15 reps
Damien Mama — DNP
Roderick Johnson — DNP
The following players have +33-inch arms and achieved at least 27 reps on the bench press: Isaac Asiata, Aviante Collins, Jermaine Eluemunor and Nico Siragusa. Forrest Lamp had an impressive 34 reps on the bench but only has 32 1/4 inch arms.
Asiata is a key name to watch tomorrow. There were a few plays in 2016 where he really flashed surprising athleticism (including one brilliantly executed screen pass to Joe Williams where Asiata led him — sprinting — deep downfield). He also showed plenty of explosion creating running lanes against Washington’s fearsome D-line.
Cam Robinson didn’t take part due to past shoulder issues. Reportedly he will not do the drill pre-draft. It’s unclear why Garett Bolles, Roderick Johnson and Damian Mama did not participate. All four players will receive a projected TEF score using the average number of bench reps for this draft class (24 reps).
The offensive linemen will compete in the vertical and broad jumps tomorrow. We will be live blogging from 6am PST.
*Drools briefly before reading*
For real though, a big thanks to everyone who helped Rob perfect this formula.
It’s an excellent tool to aid in the evaluation process.
WOOF
Look at those numbers for the tall guys! Wheeler, Skipper, Davenport,
Hugely disappointing.
Sharpe* not Dan Skipper of Arkansas
I’m not too stressed by the bench. Anything past 8 reps or so is just endurance. If the NFL actually wanted to test repeat strength and explosiveness, they’d be looking at seeing what the boys could clean for two or three reps.
It’s about showing up for your workout
You wanna be the best in the country and go earn your check.
Perine with 33 reps! That’s a big boy.
Yeah I love Perine he’s a good hearted bloke as well. Perine, Hunt, and Hood, hope we get one of those 3! Yippie
Go Hawks
Fwiw I think Cam Robinson may have destroyed wTEF if he did a full workout.
Outside of that he lacks the other qualities Cable has said he values much more than athleticism.
Which of these guys that pass TEF were all academic / fought adversity.
Lol somebody replied to the tweet about Robinson not doing the bench press with a red flag emoji xD
Been loving the idea of LB and S/CB with first two picks. However, Asiata seems like a beast. Maybe trade back:
2nd Obi/Baker
2nd Asiata
3rd Bowser
3rd Douglas
3rd Perine
OL (Fant/Glow/Britt/Asiata/Ifedi)
I’m digging that draft Ed!
Go Hawks
That would be an amazing draft Ed! Love it your best to date. I think I prefer Hunt to Perine but either would be fine. The rest of the picks would be perfect IMO.
+1 keep Perine
This is great. I feel like the draft prep is getting real now. Can’t wait for the rest of the data to come in and see if a few names pop up as possibilities.
I watched film on Asiata. He looks fantastic. BUT what to do about Glowinski and Ifedi and Odi? Do we really want more turnover on the OL? It seems like a T to compete with Gilliam is the most likely outcome in the draft and/or F/A. That is unless one of these guys just seems incredibly superior to ANY of the guys on the current OL to pass up.
Asiata, IMO, could end up being one of those guys who down the line becomes one of the best guards in the league. Let’s see how he tests but he seems to have that potential.
Plug the guy into RG and have Ifedi play RT.
That would put some sand in the pants of the OL to road grade holes for the RBs.
Not saying they are Steve Hutchinson / Walter Jones duo….. but they would have a ton of potential.
I think I’d rather keep Ifedi at RG and have Asiata push Glowinski. Get some experience on this OL at RT. Would be healthy to see Glow pushed.
His draft position may be too rich to push our fifth round find, no?
Nothing wrong with Glownski as a backup, but seems slightly counterintuitive to me
I think they need some competition on that O-line personally, not just a veteran presence. Let Odhiambo compete with Fant at LT, let Gilliam compete with a veteran at RT. After that, there’s barely any competition at guard.
Will be interesting to see how Asiata performs on Friday.
I appreciate what you do here, Rob! Your work, and the work of others, on TEF and wTEF is some next level fandom, and I am down with it! Thanks, for what you do.
With Pete’s profound emphasis on competition, I would be surprised if they did not add some young talent to the O-line at some point in the draft. With that being said, looking at those bench numbers, and considering Cable’s self-professed ideals at bench (27), and what I have seen on some other draft-related sites, they might have to draft a player like Asiata in the 2nd round; assuming he meets or exceeds the TEF/wTEF-limits. I think that he is generally regarded as a 3-4th round pick, but Seattle might have to snag him, or a player like him, in the second, because there seems to be a dearth of quality O-liners this draft. I could be wrong though. Cheers!
Similar to Ifedi, he can just look dominant at times, the drive and aggression is there he just needs to be more consistent
Just posted above about that. You could boot Ifed to RT and have a very young right side of the line that can gel and grow together.
PS has already stated that Ifedi will stay at RG and likely won’t move back out to tackle. Asiata played LG at Utah and looked good there, would rather have him push at LG.
Yeah Rob you have had to state that about Ifedi at least 10 times staying at right guard. On paper he does seem suited for tackle with his 36 inch arms but come on guys, let’s put that one to bed unless it happens.
GO Hawks
Wow Rob your analysis and metrics for what to look for in O-linemen really takes the Rubarb Pie, and that’s a good thing!
Yeah it is a mystery to me why they won’t try a guy who looks like the absolute pro-type RT at the position but it seems they want to keep Ifedi at a position where he looked completely lost. So not much sense discussing it. Not surprising given how they have handled the OL the past 6 years.
I think if Asiata tests well he is a great pick to come in and compete for a Guard spot and backup Britt a Center let competition and the coaches figure out the rest. The more talented guys we have the better the Ol will be long term.
Ifedi had some rough moments but did he ever look ‘lost’? Not for me.
Hey rob he might have been referencing this 🙁
https://twitter.com/pff_mike/status/814483546488393728
“There’s a blitz coming come on!”
“just block him”
*Tries to do too much*
You see what you want to
I think that play is the definition of someone who is lost…don’t see how you can refute that. Now he was a rookie and I expect him to learn and get better but he was the worst ranked guard in the NFL and had a rough rookie season.
My biggest concern with Cable is I think he over-emphasizes 2nd level blocking. 3rd video in the Twitter link is a great example. Nearly impossible reach block for Gilliam. Why not have Ifedi drive the guy in front of him, instead of tasking Gilliam to magically teleport in front of him. Then, Gilliam could race ahead and try to find a LB to block. With a much bigger Oline, I keep hoping the Seahawks will keep the blocking scheme simpler with a bit less ZBS and fewer of these low probability reach blocks. I have a lot of faith in Rawls and co to make things happen at the second level…if and when they get there!
W/ O-line being my favorite unit, what I focus in on, Ifedi looked lost many times. Glow doesn’t seem to be lost as much as overpowered. Having said that, I think both guards & Fant will take the next step. Odi may be a real dark horse this next year.
“worst ranked guard in the NFL”
By PFF? Please. We can’t see how they’re arriving that rating. We know they had the Seahawks last in the league pre-season. And then they arrive at the end of the season with the same thing: and then smug congratulations for their earlier ratings!
Seriously, he was better in the second half then he was in the first. Patience for a rookie.
He missed a lot of defensive stunts. Just stood there while someone ran right past him. The rest of his game looked good.
Hey Rob: fantastic work.
TEF formula question/observation. I really like the weighted TEF formula idea. Do you think there is a similar way to adjust it for length/height, or is it not worth it? I know that a lot of dudes with shorter arms seem to have more success on the bench. Longer-armed guys often have lower numbers, but they’re physical ideal might counterbalance that.
I’m thinking too much. Great work.
They’ll have their reasons. Maybe Ifedi’s feet aren’t up to it? Maybe they want a real mauler at RG more than they want one at RT?
Isaac Asiata — 35 reps
Circle this guy on your mock drafts……
Maybe we will get some Light on this line and draft Forrest Lamp. Love his name and 34 reps he may be our guy?
He may go too early.
Ditto Asiata.
I don’t think our draft pick on the OL is at the combine…
Yeah you may be right Kenny, I’d like us ti draft an O-lineman with one of the first 5 picks. LB, Safety, Corner, O lineman, Running Back, that is my Hope!
Go Hawks ya’ll!
Kaepernick to the Seahawks as backup QB ? Say it ain’t so:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/colin-kaepernick-from-49ers-to-seahawks-dont-be-shocked/ar-AAnIJRM?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=edgsp
I hope no with Keap. I feel like the only one sometimes who ever has faith in Boykin. What I saw I felt very content in his play. Plus Russell is going to play until he is 45 or so, we are straight set up!
Could do without the distraction
Presuming that the Seahawks do indeed use something akin to TEF to evaluate offensive lineman, Id say its about time the seahawks found another formula. JSPC and Cable didnt even draft Max Unger. The line has NEVER been a strength of this team under their tutelage. Even in 2013, the line was ranked 29th in the leauge by pff. The line has only been average when at its best since 2011. I know that o-line play is bad in general around the league, but that is not an excuse because just being AVERAGE would do wonders for our offense I imagine. We’ve spent so many midround draft picks on o-lineman recently, I dont want to see any more mid round picks used on o-linemen this year until the seahawks change their philosophy. We’ve made our picks, brought in Cable’s guys, lets see if odhiambo, glowinski, and ifedi can develop. Terry poole and Sokojoli or whatever his name is are already lost causes.
There’s nothing wrong with identifying explosive offensive linemen and trying to develop them.
People assume there are these solid, less explosive O-liners available that Seattle passes on because they don’t jump 31 inches in the vertical and then they go to another team and become an all-pro.
The reason Seattle has to have an approach like this is quite clear. The complete dearth of good college O-liners and the need to compensate for that (and picking late in R1) by finding players with at least the potential to be great.
First off, great post as always. Second, I understand what you’re saying, and its makes total sense. But we have to admit that so far they havent had a lot of luck drafting o-linemen. The jury is still out on many of them though.
Also, I agree that there are not a lot of good o-line prospects coming out of college but there have still been some good ones available later in the draft over the past 5 years or so:
David decastro (24th overall)
Cody Whitehair (56th overall)
Terron Armstead (2nd round)
Morgan Moses (3rd round)
Jared Veldheer (2nd round)
Trai Turner (3rd round)
Joe thuney (2nd)
Josh Sitton (4th Round)
David Bakhtiari (4th Round)
To name a few.
More than athleticism, Tom Cable values INTELLIGENCE and GRIT.
Maybe those players didn’t tick the right boxes for our mentality.
Maybe they didn’t have a great work out or interview. Lots of teams passed on some of those guys a couple times y’know?
Yeah I know, you cant (and I dont) expect them to always hit a home run every pick.
No, but you can hope they’ll get a single in 3-4 attempts on average, and they’re nowhere close to that. Whatever they’re using to make OL picks, it’s not working.
Joe Thuney was a 3rd round selection. And outplayed our 1st round guy by quite a ways. The genius of Tom Cable: He’ll take a UDFA and get him to play like a 3rd-rounder. ….And he’ll take a 1st-rounder and get him to play like a 3rd-rounder.
An excellent observation Rhino.
Can you name the other 4 players playing around Thuney in that line? How many of then were either rookies or actually playing for the first time? (none)
Integrating a rookie into an NFL OL has become a very risky proposition lately, even if he is a 1st rounder. Most fail miserably during their first year. Th very few that survive it (like Thuney) usually benefit from playing with 4 established (non rookie/first year players) around them.
Thuney and NE are an example of it and they actually went the same road the Seahawks do. They paid their OL tuition fee when they inserted 2 rookie guards and an UDFA center in 2015 and suffered a very poor year of “growing pains” and “work in progress”.
Those very same guys were solid in 2016 and enabled Thuney to succeed within an OL with an established identity and cohesion.
Josh I have been one of the biggest critic on the blog of the OL and how it has been developed. I think the idea of drafting the most explosive guys is the one thing they do right however. I think you want the best athletes possible to compete with the freak DL coming out now.
The problem I have is that you take these big and power athletes and then try and put them in a ZBS scheme that was designed for small quick OL who can work as a unit. With the rule changes and type of players they have drafted it was a recipe for disaster. The last 6 years of OL play speak to that.
I hope they continue drafting the biggest most explosive guys but start playing a power man scheme that allows these guys to start using their explosiveness and play to their strength.
I think this is why they draft these explosive O-liners though Trevor. If Cable wants to stick with purely ZBS, he would need players with the athletic qualities to combat the extreme athleticism of the D-Liners that they will face. I think regardless of offensive schemes they use, they must have the athleticism of their players match that of their opponents.
I think it is more complicated than that. ZBS is a run play system, not a pass blocking formation. When Gibbs came up with it, the rules favoring the passing game did not exist and the athletic discrepancy between OL and DL was far lower. The synchronized motion of the OL created the holes for the RBs reliably and effectively and the rest was history.
The rules change forced the defense to need better athletes that can get to the QB in time. They paid the premium for those special athletes and young athletic players shifted to those better paid positions. That athletic discrepancy negated some of the advantages of the ZBS because defensive players move so much better then their counterparts on the OL. The ZBS as a system became less effective and most teams (seahawks included) incorporate a lot of “power plays” in their system.
Having to learn it all (without enough pad practice), while coming from college ill prepared and physically inferior made rookie offensive linemen perform miserably.
Still, if we allow at least 4 of the 5 guys that ended the year to start at their previous position next year, we’ll find out if the Seahawks were smart or foolish with their OL master plan.
Interesting thoughts, Eran. I would be interested in hearing about the effectiveness of ZBS in run blocking vs. in pass pro. It seems to me that the points you make apply more to run blocking. But what are the advantages and disadvantages the type of players needed for ZBS run blocking usually have in pass pro?
You wrote that, “the athletic discrepancy between OL and DL was far lower,” during Gibbs’ era, and I agree. This is why regardless of the offensive scheme Cable uses, the O-liners he plays have to be able to athletically match up to their opponents.
Exactly this! I am hoping for less ZBS and those insane blocking schemes where a lineman races past the defender right in front of him attempting to find a LB on the 2nd level to block. This leaves another Olineman with the unlikely task of reaching that defender and making an effective block despite being off balance and out of position. Video 3 in the above Twitter link is an excellent example of this futility. I say Let ’em Smash more!
Its interesting how everybody on this blog agrees with one another almost all the time. I know these selections wont be popular, but here is my dream draft:
1. Ryan Ramzyck
2. Demarcus Walker, DE FSU
3. Jake Butt, TE
3. Carlos Watkins, DT Clemson
3. Anthony Walker, LB Northwestern
6. Jalen Reeves-Maybin, LB Tennessee
7. Joe Mixon (Will obviously not happen)
That happens with almost all groups, a rough consensus emerges.
There’s still plenty of debate and disagreement though. Most of it is about the hysterics over the offensive line, been plenty of chat about Mixon though, and lots more about the running back situation, and the perceived need for a penetrating DT.
Your picks look reasonably solid to me though, save I’d like to see at least a pick or two going towards the secondary.
Yeah I know its major flaw is no secondary help, but if we have to leave something out then it might as well be a position group the Pete Carrol develops really well. Maybe one of the guys on the roster already will end up being just as good as any draft pick. Elliot, Jean-Baptiste, McCray, Desir..have these guys had a chance yet in Seattle’s system?
PCJS’s assessment of the talent and readiness of their current CB stable was a big mystery for me last year, as well. They all got injured or flamed out…except Shead emerged and was solid. Hopefully this year, one or two of the youngsters will emerge big time!
Like the draft a lot if you replaced Jake Butt who is coming off an ACL. He is solid but not a special enough player to take a chance on IMO. Replace him with a CB like Rasul Douglas or Howard Wilson and I think it would be a nice draft for sure. I am a big Walker fan and think he is incredibly under rated.
Hmm, I was thinking he could potentially be a great value pick due to the injury. Wasnt he suppose to be a top 10 pick before the season?
No. OJ Howard is a great dual-threat (athletic and blocking) TE prospect and he’s not considered top 10. David Njoku is an amazing athletic TE prospect and he’s not considered top 10. Even as Butt was being hyped during the offseason you could tell that many people were trying to pump the brakes and were talking about him as more of a Maxx Williams, late-1st, 2nd-round type guy.
I would like to know more about Ramzyck’s medical issues before making him a first rounder. If he checks out then he would be a great choice .
Great update to the formula Rob. I hope you plan on trademarking those terms or doing something so it’s your metric or the metric you and others put together. I’ve seen other people begin to pick up on that formula and pull pieces from it while never calling it TEF or wTEF. As for the info today, it makes me really hopeful they can add a couple young guys to push Glow and/or Ifedi in this draft. I’m really interested in Feeney, Asiata, and Dawkins (in that order). Again I hope we enter the 2017 season with an o line depth chart that looks something like this…
LT: Odhiambo, Fant
LG: Glowinski, Draft Pick or FA
C: Britt, Hunt
RG: Ifedi, Draft Pick or FA
RT: FA, Gilliam
Any possibility they look into Ronald Leary? He’s a Pro Bowl level guard who doesn’t get the recognition he deserves because he’s surrounded by potentially three future Hall of Fame players in Smith, Frederick, and Martin. The site Spotrac says his market value is $9.1 mil/year. That would still give us money for a veteran RT provided it’s no more than a 2-3 year deal. Just a thought.
one of the interesting things about the vertical is a lot of power weight lifters have a good vertical. Not Michael Jordan, but better than expected. This is a direct reflection of leg power and explosion. I learned this years ago when I was trying to jump high enough to dunk a basketball. So the vertical reflects both power and natural explosion that is critical to the oline to move people
btw, got the jump high enough, but my right hand was slightly too small to palm the basketball so it would slip off more times than not. I did accomplish some spectacular “non dunks” and lots of welts on my wrist from hitting the rim…..
so also an important thing about hand size and fumbles, I guess
I trained until I could dunk at 5’11” Hocus Pocus by Focus came on the radio and put me over the top. I enjoyed dunking for 15 years until I herniated a disc. Anyway, I held the ball with 2 hands on the way up. As I passed the net, my left hand let go and my right hand moved to the top of the ball. Always left the court with red wrists!
Most intellectual draft read on the web. Really appreciate the sophisticated analysis and even the comment section is great with regular smart contributors like V12, Kenny, BobbyK, seemingly 4 variations of Alaksahawk fan, and I’m sure others.
I don’t have time to watch tape. I’m sure I’m not alone in that. I’ll watch highlights film for a player mentioned on the site and as we get closer to the draft and narrow the prospects, I might have time to watch a game or two but I rely on this site for my info.
Thanks Rob and all of the regular contributors.
*stands*
*starts a slow clap*
TEF is amazing Rob. I remember when you came up with it, I wondered, “How can this possibly help?” As well as, “Who has time for this?” Now I sit here and wonder, “How insightful is this?” and “Why haven’t the Seahawks hired Rob to be part of the scouting department?”
Excited to see the finished product and put some TEF numbers to the players we’ve been discussing.
Random Question: Do prospects perform the bench press during their Pro Day?
Here’s a fun one, Brandon Marshall just got released.
It’s a yes from me.
*Boi-oi-oing* -Pete Carroll
Hahahaha
Me too
Obv depends on price but seems like a really good fit. Fills the big wr role.
Would be a great pick up for sure. I can see him fitting in perfectly here. He’s also talked about his respect for the hawks especially wilson. But I think he will be to rich for are liking. Please just don’t go to the pats though.
Why was he released? Why are the jets purging their talent? Wasn’t Mangold also recently released? The jets make zero sense to me.
He asked out and they let him go. They’re trash, need a full rebuild.
If the price is even halfway reasonable, you have to see about bringing him in for a year or two don’t you?
He’s Manic Depressive just like me arse. Yay
I want to tell ya’ll this. People who have emotional imbalances chemicaly naturally are very emotional and devoted to what they believe. I am down with Brandon Marshell especially with the Hawks locker room.
Go Hawks forever!
That’s kind of funny Howl, I, too struggle with BPD2 so Brandon Marshall has become a kind of personal hero to me because of his openness and efforts to raise awareness around the topic
I would love to have him on the Seahawks team
Thanks Kenny! I Love you much M8!
By the way my name tis be Cragie, Kenny. Happy face
Cheers bud. My name is actually Kenny 😉
Just going for rebuild & #1 pick next year to get a QB
I have a sinking feeling that Asiata will rise to round 2…
Agree completely if he test well today and he would be worth a 2nd round pick IMO.
Jets releasing Brandon Marshall. Hmm…
And might cut Decker too….
Honestly I would be very comfortable with
LT: Fant, Odhiambo
LG: Glowinski, Asiata
C: Britt, Hunt
RG: Ifedi, Odhiambo? (Drawing a blank) Maybe a late draft pick
RT: FA, Gilliam
Then we could spend our first, and all thirds on defense if we want or a back like Perine.
I love Perine and a vinegorite cabbage salad, Coleslaw. F, mayo
Perhaps Okung at RT…… this would allow for an upgrade and a guy who could, in a pinch, play LT.
“Utah T Garrett Bolles did not participate in the bench press at the NFL Scouting Combine due to a slight pectoral strain.”
Duane Brugler (Twitter)
https://twitter.com/dpbrugler/status/837405428770353155
Re the utility of TEF and the proposition that a fixation with thế ideals leads to myopia causing our Hawks to look past a pool of somewhat less athletic but supposedly more pro-ready picks-I cant see it. Do we miss one now and again? Sure. But it is somewhat of a hit and miss game much of the time. Has Ifedi díappointed a bit? I dont really feel that way-rather Im still quite bullish on his future. When was he picked, exacttly? 30? 31? I dont recall. Now look at DJ Humphries in Az, who went at 24-he got a full on red-shirt treatment his rookie year and if he then really wowed last year, i missed the news. Ifedi gave us a starter for most of his rookie year. So he took hí lumps at times- it WILL get better and hé got all the physical boxes ticked.
I was searching for names to illustrate my point a few days back-supposedly sure picks that didnt quite turn out that way-how about top 5 picks like Eric Fischer and Luke Joeckel? Fluecker? Others?
Sure-I will be pumped as hell if they land an Asiata. Just like if they bring home Reddick or Melifonwu. And lets have some fun with TEF comparing DL and OL prospects and then it will be easy to remember why we proudly fly that TEF flag above This House That Rob Built! Its gonna be Christmas in April, whoever JS/PC pick!
As always, my eternal thanks to Rob for this Space For The 12s that he has created and to all the guys hêre for the uncommon civility, knowledge, and tolerance for divergent opinions that they bring to it!
BankHawk you are an excellant writer my friend. I Love it!
Howling-thanks my man! ! just get a little rush sometimes and go off on one of my rants. However, trying to type it all out on this wretched tablet with its diabolical cross-lingual auto-correct makes it an uphill battle at times. Real one-finger stuff with frequent revisions needed
Also, when I do comment, I tend more towards trying to come up with provocative questions, as my living situation affotds me far less access to games and game tape than the average denizen of the blog probably has. And that explains why I love the blog, Rob and its regulars so much-I draw a HUGE proportion of my ìno and my opinions from SDB.
Hey Rob: fantastic work.
TEF formula question/observation. I really like the weighted TEF formula idea. Do you think there is a similar way to adjust it for length/height, or is it not worth it? I know that a lot of dudes with shorter arms seem to have more success on the bench. Longer-armed guys often have lower numbers, but they’re physical ideal might counterbalance that.
I’m thinking too much. Great work.
I think the arm length advantage for the bench press gets weeded out by the 33in arm cutoff.
TEF represents all around explosiveness
wTEF represents all around explosiveness with mass behind it.
height and arm length are good metrics to look at but probably not in relation to a player’s explosiveness.
Last year, I thought about the possibility of adding a bonus to the wTEF score for every half inch of arm length over 33. 35 inch arms really help! And I’m sure PCJS factor it.
Cysco, I value your opinion as one of the main contributors who helped tweak the formula. What you mention above is right, but by factoring bench reps into the TEF score before multiplying by weight, you are already including that in the overall explosiveness as well.
And since arm length does affect the difficulty of the bench test, it already is affecting the overall explosiveness score calculated by TEF, and that’s why I think it might be worth it to factor it in. Just like weight naturally affects the jumps, arm length affects the bench.
Now that may not matter, as Rob states in the article that he sees as a positive the way that the formula is flexible enough to make up for deficiencies in one test with exceptional results in another. Of course, it is his choice how he decides on the formula, but if he chooses to leave out arm length, an objectively measureable physical attribute that affects the test scores like weight does, IMO it should be for a reason like flexibility or simplicity of the formula and not because it doesn’t really affect what TEF is measuring.
But I’m very open to hearing any counter points I might have missed in my reasoning. I think the tweaking and perfecting process is fun.
With the dumpster sale going on in NY, I could see them trying to trade back multiple times and trading Richardson for a 2nd/3rd. They have no QB/RB/OL/LB/CB/S. If the Hawks can have a bounce back year, Richard or Bevell could be the next NY head coach.
Richardson is worth, at most, a conditional seventh.
Sheldon, not Paul.
I’d be interested in Richardson at the right price, a pre-agreed extension at the right level say $8-10 apy which might be possible given his perceived character risk. He plays with passion, out of position and his TED ain’t bad at 3.38
TEF not TED
Good changes this year Rob.
After we nailed last year’s pick, I’m feeling confident in the blog’s ability to predict which OL players might be Seahawks targets and which might go higher in the draft than the national pundits are predicting.
Also, if there needed to be any further evidence that this year’s offensive line class is really disappointing, last year’s class had 16 offensive line players with 27+ reps. This year? four. That’s it.
Looking forward to hanging out on the blog tomorrow!
Honestly I was a bit crestfallen by the results this year. With how Seattle has such strong patterns in drafts to see such little effort from these big men kind of makes it hard to debate and more importantly beyond us and this blog who the team would truly draft.
I do think Asiata is going to move into the second round. Regardless if other teams use something as refined as TEF or not, being one of a very small handful of players to look good at the combine is really going to bolster his stock. That said Asiata in the Second is a no brainer for me.
Thanks for all the work Rob.
You mention arm length and weight as factors that skew the bench and vertical respectively, which they surely do. Have you thought about normalizing those testing results for physical attributes (for example 26 reps with 35 inch arms is about the same as 34 reps with 32 inch arms…not sure exactly what the conversion would be). It just seems to me that Dawkins is probably as strong as Lamp, he just has to do more work to push that bar farther every rep. And it seems like the tall guys do better with the broad jump as well. This would explain why the Hawks still liked Ifedi who had to overcome 36 inch arms.
Along those lines, have you followed Aviante Collins? I bet he puts up big jump numbers at 295 lbs.
Geez Terron Armstead instead of Christine Michael would have been nice.
3.37 TEF
Oh, and perhaps an alternate way of awarding Bolles’ his bench score would be to try and and find a comparable player from last year’s draft using his measurements and Jump scores. My gut tells me that at 297 lbs, 6’5 and 34in arms, that just giving him 24 reps is probably being generous.
Rob, I have a minor observation/suggestion for wTEF:
Arm length is both important and counter productive for bench press numbers. A player with 35 inch arms pressing 26 times is clearly superior to a player with 33 inch arms pressing 28 times…
Should we not integrate it into wTEF? (multiple by arm length/33)
I’m interested to hear responses to this. I’ve thought about it every time I look at arms and bench #’s, regardless of position.
KJ a great example with slower 40 time, but freaky length and very cerebral. KPL is a freaky athlete, but he’s often out of optimal position. So we need to draft a LB with a high pick.
I was thinking about this last year. Arm length could be factored in 2 ways: Longer arms make bench press harder. Longer arms are a benefit on the football field. Perhaps we modify bench press number by a factor for each inch or half inch of arm length over 33 inches. And maybe add a bonus factor to wTEF score for each inch or half inch of arm length over 33 inches??? I am sure PCJS factor these 2 variables into their evaluation.
Your getting too complicated. You normalize it by arm length, times reps. That basically tells you how far any prospect can push 225 pounds
I don’t believe so. I’m not convinced how much difference an inch or two in arm length dramatically impacts your ability to bench. I know it’s an opinion often expressed (that the bench is harder for guys with longer arms) but 33 inch arms are still long. I’m 6-4 and in the 32-33 inch arm range. The guy I train with is about 5-10 and has sub-30 inch arms. I’d say it’s minutely easier for him to do a bench press but we still get the same number of reps out. So if I adjust the formula to accommodate 35 vs 33 inch arms we might just be going down a road we don’t need to go down and thus make the formula more complex than it needs to be.
Ultimately we just want to get an overall score for bench, broad and vertical and all the weighted TEF does is emphasise the truly unique guys — like Ifedi — that jump higher and further than anyone else despite being a 320-330lbs monster. Carrying an extra 20lbs in mass is clearly significant. An inch or two in arm length is questionable at best.
Rob,
my main motivation was not to compensate for the arm length effect on bench pressing. It was mainly to reward longer arms for an offensive lineman. I think we all agree that a Ifedi with 33 inch arms would be a bit less appealing physically than with his 36 inch arms. Same for Frank Clark etc.
Long arms seem to be too big an advantage to totally ignore in wTEF.
As for the effect on bench pressing exclusively – if performed properly, chest to straight arms, the energy needed to perform that task is mass*g*distance is linearly greater the longer the arms are.
JS and now PC have both mentioned, during recent radio interviews I’ve heard on 710, a durability rating for each player on their draft board. So, when thinking about these various prospects, if a guy has some significant injury history, we might want to cool it when thinking about them to Seattle.
The good thing about analytics (TEF and SPARQ) they can point us in the direction of players Seattle would likely pick… and then we can weed out some of the players we know have injury or certain off the field problems. Sadly, the most important part of the combine is the meeting component, which we never hear about yay or nay on every guy Seattle talks to.
My hope is that we will sign Tarik Cohen RB to an udfa contract. At 5′ 6″ and maybe 180, he does an amazing job of seeming bigger, is very quick and fast, and he has huge hands (10.125 in) which equals Foreman’s, and Foreman is 233 pounds. Determined runner, a smaller version of Rawls, but with more slippery. The current combine hand measurements for running backs has him with the biggest hands (with Foreman).
Of course he would be long shot, but could be an amazing weapon in certain situations. He catches the ball well, blocks well for a smaller guy, and runs like the devil. I’ve never watched tape of the devil, but this is probably what it looks like.
Last line made me laugh. Thanks, ObS! Haven’t seen any tape of the devil up on DBD yet either… There is a RB nicknamed “Smoke” though, if that counts as close. (Taquan Mizzell) You could say he makes it hell for defenders left grasping at his tail…
Cohen could run through the legs of the DL hobbit style 🙂
Enjoyed his highlights tape on Youtube immensely! Great weapon!
Great PC sound with Clayton at the Combine.
http://sports.mynorthwest.com/247367/seahawks-notebook-pete-carroll-says-earl-thomas-tyler-lockett-on-track-to-be-ready-for-start-of-2017/
Rob, great work once again. Love the FAQ format and suggest you add it as a permanent page on the site. That might help as well with some minimal recognition from other sports writers, as was discussed in the comments earlier.
I would also propose that for each full inch above 33″ arm length, a prospect receive +1 rep on the bench. Thus, for example, Ifedi with his 36″ arms would receive a +3 bonus on top of his 24 reps, for a total bench score of 27.
(In the same way, if desired for uniformity–though certainly less important because of Seahawks 33″ cutoff–for each full inch below 33″ a prospect could receive -1 rep.)
I like your idea. Also, wTEF establishes that all other factors being equal, a 325 pound prospect is better than a 300 pound prospect. A similar bonus for each inch or half inch of arm length may be useful. WTEF is brilliant…Great job, Rob!!!
I think too much attention is given to arm length and bench press. Does a person with 34in arms have to exert more energy than a dude with 33in arms? All things being equal, yes. The 34in person needs to move the weight one more inch than the 33in arm person.
But all things are not equal. The biggest difference between most of these guys at the combine isn’t arm length.. It’s skill and overall muscle mass. Bench press isn’t just throwing weight up as much as you can. There’s technique and skill involved. I guarantee that Asiata has had proper training and has probably been bench pressing for a long time. I do a good deal of weight training. My bench press increased drastically when I started working with a trainer. Not because I got significantly stronger, but rather I was taught proper technique.
If you want to look at a metric that has a good effect on benching, you need to look at overall muscle mass. We don’t really get insight into that though. However, bench press gives us a good idea of a prospects body composition:
Take a look at Asiata. He’s 6’3, 323lbs, 33.75 arms. He did 35 reps. Now look at Chase Roullier from Wyoming. He’s 6’4, 312lbs 32.25 arms – 19 reps. Why the huge discrepancy in reps? Without even seeing the two side by side, it’s probably safe to assume Roullier’s body fat percentage is much higher than Asiata’s. I’d wager that Asiata would be at or near the top of the list if they measured LBM (lean body mass). Essentially we can assume that Asiata’s weight is made up of a higher percentage of muscle than many of the others. Just like we can assume that TCU’s Aviante Collins is a freak’n specimen. 34 reps at 6’4 295. That dude is pure muscle.
Thanks, great insight! Makes a lot of sense.
So, in a way I guess, if a prospect gets a sub 1.0 TEF score on the bench and has to multiply it by a higher weight, it is like a penalty of sorts for potentially carrying more fat and less muscle and consequentially being less explosive. In that way, we could say it measures explosiveness as well.
Of course, as you insinuate, it could also be due to not having prepared well with proper technique and put in the hours in the weight room, which is really what they want to find out about a prospect anyway.
And judging by the pics we’ve seen, I think you’d win your wager!
https://twitter.com/AsiataFive4/status/827965437866500097
I talked to Eran about this but will post the same reply because it’s a similar subject:
I’m not convinced how much difference an inch or two in arm length dramatically impacts your ability to bench. I know it’s an opinion often expressed (that the bench is harder for guys with longer arms) but 33 inch arms are still long. I’m 6-4 and in the 32-33 inch arm range. The guy I train with is about 5-10 and has sub-30 inch arms. I’d say it’s minutely easier for him to do a bench press but we still get the same number of reps out. So if I adjust the formula to accommodate 35 vs 33 inch arms we might just be going down a road we don’t need to go down and thus make the formula more complex than it needs to be.
Ultimately we just want to get an overall score for bench, broad and vertical and all the weighted TEF does is emphasise the truly unique guys — like Ifedi — that jump higher and further than anyone else despite being a 320-330lbs monster. Carrying an extra 20lbs in mass is clearly significant. An inch or two in arm length is questionable at best.
Ok, thanks. I was writing the proposal I posted below without refreshing the page, so I didn’t see this before posting.
Either way, I enjoyed at least thinking it through and coming up with something. And, as I made a point to express clearly, TEF and wTEF work great as they are too.
image: http://walterfootball.com/jscss/Images/Logos/TRN/SEA.gif
Seattle Seahawks
Isaac Asiata, G/C, Utah (SR)
Antony Auclair, TE, Laval (EW)
Zach Banner, OT, USC (COM)
Javancy Jones, OLB, Jacksonville State (EW)
Carroll Phillips, DE/3-4OLB/OLB, Illinois (SR)
Read more at http://walterfootball.com/ProspectMeetings/ByTeam#I4bQq7hcUVx7O3TC.99
Love it maybe the Hawks are considering another Canadian kid at TE in Auclair. He is really raw but a good athlete for sure. He would be an awesome UDFA to develop as a blocking TE behind Vannett.
No thanks on Banner. Just rewatched Usc vs. Alabama, and USC vs. Washington. Okay against Washington but against ‘bama I just stopped watching after 15 plays of him being out of the play, getting beaten by speed, getting beat by power, and finally after watching him go to the second level to trot on out to block no one…pass. Big sloppy dude who does appear to be quick but for all my concerns about Ifedi at RT and the team said they like him at RG, I think IFedi would make more sense out there than Banner.
Also I now the Bench Press is a rough tool and it may test strength or be better at testing stamina but either way 353 lbs to be able to chuck it up 22 times is not very good from a guy who has had weight problems.
Broad jump would be better analysed if converted to centimeters…
I’m happy with the inches formula. It tells us what we need to know.
Given their interest, his game tape and testing so far I would say Asiata in the 2nd round is about as sure a Hawks pick as I have seen in a while. If he hits the 3.0 on the TEF I think you can almost pencil in his name when we pick in Rd#2 if he is still on the board.
Ideal pick for our OL really. If the Hawks believe long term that Fant and Ifedi are our OTs then he would be incredible value even in the 2nd round as he can compete for a G spot year #1 and backup Britt at Center then become our LG of the future when they move Ifedi out to RT which they said is their long term plan.
I would love the Hawks to sign a guy like Whitworth who can be an upgrade at either OT spot. He is soon to be 36 so could take a team friendly 2 year eal which would fit perfectly in our cap situation. But that is likely going to happen.
If not even a couple of guys like Breno and Sowell to a Vet Min type deal. Who could come compete for an OT spot and if not would be a great guy in the room with the young guys
Realistic 2017 OL
LT Fant + Rees + Sowell
LG Glowinski + Asiata +Rees
C Britt + Asiata
RG Ifedi + Glowinski
RT Gliiam,+Breno
The following year in 2018 is when the OL could be really special if the guys develop as you would expect.
2018 OL would be an incredibly athletic, tough and explosive group. This OL would give me the most hope I have ever had in a Hawks OL.
LT Fant
LG Asiata,
C Britt
RG Glowinski
RT Ifedi
When did they say that Ifedi as RT is their long term plan?
When they drafted him and during camp last year. They said the idea was to start him at G and move him to OT.
Naw
Like PC has specifically said they don’t plan to kick him back out.
Agreed, perhaps a vet to compete at RT for Gilliam’s spot. Asiata v. Glowinski? I think people are going to be bummed but I agree with the podcast this week but I think 4 of the 5 OL from last year are going to be starting again. It could be a major coup for the team if Fant can become league average at LT plus didn’t big Walter Jones say he liked Fant…not that it means much but still. In NFL terms if you can get a “free,” LT that would be a steal better then Sweezy, the big Russian, or anyone else for that matter.
I know people love the tweets where IFedi looked lost, but seriously he changed positions and had a high ankle sprain to start, plus all those pieces go together and it’s not like a former RT was getting a lot of confidence on HIS right hand side last year from Gilliam.
Right?
You don’t know what’s going on in that video.
There was a free rusher coming off the edge in the Justin Britt pointing one
Perhaps Ifedi was trying to alert him and Britt said just block down.
You don’t know, guys.
Be a FAN lol
The talent there is good. But they still have to put it together.
Some really intriguing guys with the measurements you would think the Hawks would love.
Daeshon Hall (DE / Tex A&M) The prototype size wise 6-5+, 265lbs, 34 5/8″ Arms, 9 1/2 Hands
Tyus Bowser (LB / Hous) Like this guy more every day 6-3, 244lbs, 33″ Arm, 10 1/8 Hands
Dalvin Thomlinson (DT / Alb) Ideal size for a Hawks DT 6-3, 312lbs / 33″ Arms, 10″ Hands
Tarrell Basham (Edge / Ohio) Keep an eye on for 10yd split. Seems like ideal LEO 6-4, 260lbs,33″ Arms, 10 3/8 Hands
These are 4 guys to definitely monitor IMO.
If they dont get Reddick, I definitely see them taking a look at Bowser. Plus, how can you NOT love a LB named Bowser?!
Ok, I think I’ve got something now.
First of all, before I go on, I will state the obvious: the formula is Rob’s and the decision is completely up to him. I’m not trying to “demand” change or anything like that, but rather just having fun throwing out a suggestion that I think makes some sense and enjoying listening to everyone’s feedback. Here goes!
1. We know the original TEF works. Every Seattle draft pick has met the 3.0 mark. It is simple to explain and derived directly from TC’s explicitly stated ideals. Other than the correction Rob already implemented for precision in the broad jump, I would leave it just as it is.
2. My proposal regards wTEF. Called “weighted” not because it takes into account a player’s weight, but because it weighs the parts of the TEF score according to factors that influence each of the different tests. In this sense, just as a player’s weight is an objectively measurable physical attribute that affects the vertical and broad jumps, a player’s arm length affects the bench press reps.
3. wTEF does not currently take into account arm length. It also multiplies the bench score by the player’s weight, which does not really affect the bench as much as arm length. While this “works” in some way, it also could penalize a player with outstanding length for underperforming in the bench, or would unduly reward a player with subpar length who, as a result, has it easier to put up more reps. It also gives us no ideal base score by which to compare players’ results.
(I can hear you saying, “so get on with it already”…)
4. My proposal for wTEF is the following:
[(TEF vert + TEF broad cubed) x weight] + [TEF bench x (300 + {arm length – 33} x 10)] x 0.1
*Basically, it gives a player +10 for every inch above 33″ arm. There is probably a better way to write it in the formula.
The ideal score would then be 90:
1. TEF vertical + TEF broad cubed x weight: 2 x 300= 600
2. TEF Bench x length modifier: 1 x 300= 300
3. Overall score: 900 x 0.1= 90
5. Thus, as an example, Germain Ifedi would score the following:
1. 1.05 + 1.03= 2.08 x 324= 673.9
2. 0.89 x 330 = 293.7
3. 967.6 x 0.1= 96.76
Ifedi’s score in the current wTEF was 96.1, whereas in the new wTEF it would by 96.76. The reason there is not much difference is because Ifedi’s weight multiplier 324 happens to be very close to his length multiplier 330. But if he had been at 300lbs, the current wTEF would not have taken into account his superior arm length, and he would have been given just 267 for the weighted bench instead of 293.7, significantly skewing our perception of his explosiveness as indicated by his wTEF score.
6. Whether 10 points per inch above 33″ is enough to award to a player with long arms is debateable, but it both keeps the calculation simple and puts the length multiplier in a very similar as the weight multiplier, which allows to create an ideal baseline to judge by.
Thanks for reading and let me know what you think! Also, please correct my formula if necessary as I am a little rusty on the math side of things. 🙂
I fully understand you reasoning above.
However, I believe we should find a way to reward positive traits that are useful for an offensive lineman. weight could help anchoring but will effect quickness and take energy to move around, cause fatigue etc. (see Carpenter). Arm length looks to be a big advantage for an offensive lineman that does not carry drawbacks with it. I think it would helpful to add it on its own and not just to balance the bench press results.
But there is a common thought that longer levers are harder to press more times.
That’s the basis of this change.
Kenny,
It’s not a “common thought”, it’s basic physics. However, the mathematical calculation is that a player with 36 inch arms is performing 10% more work than a play with 33 inc arms. ha would translate to approx 3 more presses. Not exactly a game changer in the whole wTEF formula.
The idea is not just to make a mathematical correction for the sake of science. The idea is to add something to the wTEF formula that rewards a physical trait that is actually very helpful and impotent for offensive linemen.
I think we’re overplaying arm length here. I made reference to this in the comments section for the other article. 33 inch arms are still long. It’s impossible to measure the difference between 33 and 35 inches and whether it’s even a thing in terms of difficulty. I can bench as many reps as the guy I work out with and I’m 6-4, 33 arms and he’s 5-10, sub-30.
We’re in danger of trying too hard with the formula. We just want to test explosive traits. The wTEF is just interesting because it rewards explosive traits with unique size. When someone weighs 20lbs more and jumps higher, that’s a thing. I’m not convinced benching a certain amount of reps at 35 inch arms is a thing compared to a guy with 33 inch arms.
What’s your point?
Not just a thought, a fact.
I weight lift seriously but have extremely long arms and bench press is my worst lift, where as Deadlift (a pull movement rather then bench a push) is almost 2.5x stronger on a 1 rep max.
If this change is what puts him over the threshold
Is he really that good of an athlete?
I would like to see this or some variation alongside the other calculations this draft season.
Here’s a thought: Seattle MAY (its a hope of mine) have decided to move Ifedi to RT IF they can get their hands on Asiata or someone they like as much. Wouldnt hurt my feelings any, especially if they resign Okung as well. That would put Gilliam and Fant competing rather than being handed jobs, along with Odhiambo and Glowinsky.
And perhaps less Zone and Stretch Zone, and more Power.
Thats a lineup I could get behind. Let the best players win the starting job!
Put Asiata at LG, GLow to compete with Ifedi. Ifedi to compete with Gilliam.
If they draft a guard I’m convinced it’ll be to push Glowinski. His play was OK only and he had a redshirt.
They did flip him, Rob.
Even though it was around this time last year… He’s performed rather admirably and I’d hate to see you sell him short and project a guard in the second for the next two months
I don’t think I’m selling him short. His play was OK at best.
This team needs competition. I don’t know whether they’d draft a guard early — but I’m not shying away from it if the right guy is there.
Asiata could absolutely the right guy.
Perhaps the Seahawks thought he did better than ok this year. That doesn’t preclude them from taking a guy early. And I doubt theyd pass on an OL because it was too early as I suggest
Agree 100% Rob. Glow struggled at times at LG, much to my surprise, and he was only OK. I certainly believe if a G is available they have graded highly at a spot they feel is a fair value they will not hesitate to add to the competition.
Seems more likely to me than reaching for a below TEF tackle in a bad draft for tackles when their are a couple TEF G’s that may fall in their laps.
Also think they look to FA to add a tackle–like Okung, rather than the Draft this year.
I said it in another thread yesterday — but it wouldn’t be a surprise IMO if in 3-4 years time Asiata is one of the leading guards in the NFL. And for that reason, I’d consider him in this draft.
Hey Rob,
In case you were thinking of tweaking the formula one step further, I had a modification to the formula for you to consider, and it matches up with how the Seahawks have drafted while also explaining why the Seahawks would go for Ifedi over Spriggs (when Spriggs had the better TEF score).
This formula takes base expectations or assumptions for each weight, arm length, bench press, vertical, and broad jumps.
It then takes the player’s results and divides by the baseline. Both arm length (since arm length is not something that can be modified or trained, and is incredibly impactful on NFL play) and broad jump are cubed.
Baselines:
Weight: 310 lbs (I took the average weight of O-linemen, this can be modified; this was taken in order to account for lighter O-linemen naturally requiring less explosive force to jump further.
Arm Length: 33 inches
Vertical jump: 31 inches
Broad jump: 108 inches
Bench press: 27 reps
Thus, for Ifedi for example, we would get the result of
(324/310) + (36/33)^3 + (24/27) + (109/108)^3 + (32.5/31), resulting in a 5.3 score. I personally divided by 5 to get a percentage. So Ifedi’s new score, whatever name you would call it, would be 106.2. Spriggs, on the other hand, was only 101.5. Checking every other drafted pick by the Seahawks you listed above, they all result in a score over 100.
Contrasting with some other top picks last year, Decker for example would result in a 90%. Since everything would skew towards 100, horrible scores will still seem fine and great scores may seem to be just OK. Continuing the cube trend, it would be more useful to the untrained eye to cube the result. So, here goes the final formula:
W=Weight (lbs)
AL=Arm length (in)
BP=Bench press (reps)
BJ=Broad jump (in)
VJ=Vertical jump (in)
100*((W/310+(AL/33)^3+BP/27+(BJ/108)^3+VJ/31)/5)^3
Thoughts?