Could C.J. Stroud last as far as #5 overall?
Michael Lombardi had some interesting things to say on VSiN this weekend. I’d recommend watching the whole video, which starts with a Rich Gannon interview. Eventually, Lombardi shares his betting advice (and therefore, his prediction) for the top picks.
Here are the highlights:
— Lombardi says by Wednesday or Thursday it’ll become ‘common knowledge’ that teams picking after Houston are doing their homework on C.J. Stroud. He adds, “I think Stroud is definitely going third or later.”
— He thinks there’s lukewarm interest to trade up for a quarterback because all of the QB’s have flaws and teams won’t want to give up an asset to inherit a problem. I think this is a fair point but it perhaps underestimates how much teams are willing to look at projection/upside plus need at the most important position. After all, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen had flaws too.
— Lombardi says the Colts won’t trade up to #3. I’ve never thought they would do either. Chris Ballard has clearly judged this class very similarly and has decided to pick whoever is there at #4 who he rates the highest.
— Lombardi predicts Ballard’s order for the QB’s is Will Levis, C.J. Stroud then Anthony Richardson. He then added it could be Richardson over Stroud. Either way, Levis is #1. Regulars will know I’ve been projecting Levis to the Colts for a long time and see it as an ideal fit. I think this is why Chris Mortensen said Levis won’t get out of the top-five. If you really study the class and the Colts, the #4 pick has felt like the floor for Levis (despite all those mocks two weeks ago having him dropping into the late first). Lombardi mentions that of Levis, Stroud and Richardson — Levis is the only player who can start a game in 2023. That’s the point of the projection.
— In terms of Stroud, Lombardi thinks he’s a better prospect than Justin Fields because he’s a technically superior player with greater anticipation. However, he believes the state of the Ohio State offense — where Stroud had to take his reads from the sideline — has not prepared the quarterback for the NFL. This is something we spoke a lot about during the season. However, personally, I felt like I saw enough against Georgia to believe he can excel as a creative, improvising playmaker. He needs time. Ideally for Stroud, he would sit for a year. If he gets that opportunity, watch out.
— Lombardi suggests the Texans will see Will Anderson or Tyree Wilson as more of a ‘sure-thing’. I would caution against that line of thinking. It’s how you end up drafting Solomon Thomas instead of Patrick Mahomes.
— Hendon Hooker is a ‘great leader, great kid, great pocket presence’ but Lombardi notes that the Tennessee offense is a half-field read scheme. Anthony Richardson is described as not being an ‘alpha’ but he’s a ‘good kid’.
— He certainly sounds sceptical that the Cardinals will be able to trade out of the #3 spot. That makes sense, given Adam Schefter’s tweet last week trying to drum up interest in the #3 pick.
— Lombardi thinks it’ll go #1 Bryce Young and #2 Will Anderson. He tosses Jalen Carter in as a wildcard at #3. I’d be very surprised by that. Arizona needs a culture reset. Even if you’re Carter’s biggest fan, the Cardinals are not a good fit for a player with major question marks about his attitude, effort, football character, decision making and conditioning. They also have a rookie Head Coach and GM. It feels like a recipe for disaster. I do think Lombardi opens the door for Arizona not being able to trade down though and the top three being Young, Anderson and Tyree Wilson.
— He finishes by saying he thinks Seattle and Detroit will take ‘defensive ends or rushers’. I’m not sure who he thinks they’ll take in those slots if Anderson and Wilson are both gone. He might think Carter but personally I think he’s a very unlikely fit for Seattle and Detroit (aka, ‘Always Compete’ and ‘we want people who will eat your kneecaps’). I also think perhaps Lombardi is overlooking that while Stroud and Richardson might not be ready to start in year one, wouldn’t they be ideally placed in Seattle and Detroit to sit and learn? Isn’t that what they need?
These are interesting thoughts and worth paying attention to. Lombardi is connected, doesn’t mince his words and knows what he’s talking about.
My biggest takeaway from it all is that it might not be that unlikely for Stroud to last to #5, something that was unthinkable a few weeks ago. While I’m sure the Seahawks are very interested in drafting someone like Will Anderson if possible, it’d be quite a decision if they passed on someone like Stroud to take whichever defensive lineman is next on their list at #5.
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Id be all over Stroud at 5. Perfect size at 6′ 3″ 215 (exact size as Geno). A guy who is a passer first who can get you a first down running on 3rd and 7. I think I would take him over AR in that situation.
Deciding between Stroud and Richardson, now there’s an ideal scenario I hadn’t really considered before. Please let it be so.
I wanted to copy and paste this exchange from the last post because I think it’s worth highlighting:
Even if they are interested in QB, they have to be prepared for the QBs going 1-4 which is obviously still in play. And if they’re not sold on Anderson/Wilson they could go shutdown corner. At the very least, they need to look into it, and finalize the grades on them all.
Am hoping this is what’s going on here
I am a big fan of Devon Witherspoon, but there’s no way I can see the Seahawks taking him over Anderson. The only way I could see him being the pick at #5 is if 3 QBs and Anderson go 1-4, and the QB who’s left is the one you have little faith in. Let’s say it’s somehow Bryce Young and the team has given him a late first grade because of the size concerns.
This is all very unlikely but let’s just say that’s the case. In that event, I think Witherspoon could be the pick at #5 because 1) Carter is out due to the character and conditioning issues and 2) Tyree Wilson is a traits-only kind of guy with meh game tape and is a poor scheme fit. It would certainly break all precedent for the Seahawks to have an ultra rare top 5 pick and to spend it on a CB, but in that scenario, WItherspoon would be BPA on my board. And I’m probably way higher on him than most front offices would be.
What if this is being prepared for every possible outcome. Let’s say hypothetically that Anderson and Tyree go 2 and 3, and the Seahawks don’t believe in the QBs remaining. A trade down would make sense in that scenario, say to the Raiders. In this case, getting a better feel of Witherspoon makes sense.
This would be a disappointment of extremely large proportions if Richardson and/or Stroud are available.
I think the fire PC/JS will make a return if this were to go down like this. That would be an unforgivable mistake. IMHO.
*fire PC/JS chants.
Not addressing QBOT or D-line would be an eye-catcher, for sure
A buck-eighty corner with 31-inch arms in a Pete Carroll defense at #5 overall? Talk about precedent-shattering. That’d be my nominee for Hawk Shock of the Year.
The teams know so much more about these QBs than we do – if they pass on whichever QBs fall I would assume something in the interview or background work came back as concerning. I don’t want them to draft a guy just to take a shot if they don’t believe in them.
That being said- everything I know about Richardson says he is the dude to take a shot on.
They knew more about Malik McDowell than we did, too.
I hope you’re right – I hope we get Richardson.
Right, they certainly aren’t immune to mistakes. But QB in particular so much of the likelihood of success is mental and that is where we have the least info – basically interviews, leaked test scores that might not be accurate, what their coaches say publicly (with an agenda to be positive) and rumors. Being able to meet with these players directly plus lean on their relationships with their programs gives NFL teams much more insight. Of course a guy can be a good bet and still not work out.
It makes some sense to bring in Witherspoon just in case the QB who falls to five is Young. The Hawks might be really averse to drafting a small QB this early and they might consider be seeing if Witherspoon would be acceptable at 5 if Richardson, Anderson, Stroud, and Levis are all gone. Have to choose between Young, Carter, and Witherspoon seems like the worst-case scenario and we are getting some more info on Witherspoon just in case.
I certainly hope Lombardi is accurate. Richardson is my hope at #5. A close second being Stroud. Any defender is a disappointment here in my opinion.
I would prepare to be disappointed. There’s a very real chance they go defense at #5.
I hope they strongly consider the QB’s too and I think Schneider definitely will. I guess we’ll learn a lot about the power structure of the team in 10-11 days time.
Very interesting.
It sounds like you have some intel that you trust.
FWIW, Hawkblogger has been adamant that they wont go QB at #5, as well, based on the people he talks to.
I, for one, would be very disappointed if they bypassed Stroud or Richardson, simply because they insist on going defense at #5, even to the point of taking a lesser prospect to do it.
I have no intel on what the Seahawks are going to do
Nobody does
People might claim that they do — but the Seahawks are not leaking anything
Stuff came out about the 2022 draft after the event but not before
Not gonna lie, this would surpass the Jamal Adam’s trade as far as disappointments for me. While I’d still give the player a shot, my patience be wearing thin on these kinds of moves. Top dog pass rusher (don’t really see one) or franchise QB (see 4 possibilies) or eff it and try and trade the pick for a 1st rounder next year. I mean, we’re still gonna need a franchise qb…
Likewise, and that’s saying something. Same goes for Wilson.
Sadly I can see this happening based on Pete’s expected career length.
So much intrigue at the top…I feel like a kid at Christmas. As much as I try to fathom it, I just can’t grasp the hawks passing on the opportunity to land a franchise QB in lieu of a defender, especially if Anderson is gone. 1) The Geno uncertainty, age, and contract structure 2) the rare opportunity to draft in the top-5 3) a top QB being available at 5 4) the advantage/luxury of letting a QB sit for a year 5) having multiple high picks to still address the defense, etc.
Wanted to ask a question about center on the new comment section to get everyone’s thoughts:
I have seen the Arkansas center Stromberg ranked as the #1 center by some and others say how highly they think of the center from Michigan.
What are your thoughts on one of these centers in round 3 so we can get some of the top playmakers on both sides of the ball in rounds 1 and 2?
For example,
1. Richardson QB
1. McDonald/Ade Ade Edge
2. Downs WR
2. Benton NT
3. Stromberg C
I’d really like the first 4 if we can wait until round 3 for center.
Thoughts?
Stromberg was very, very poor during the 1v1’s at the Shrine Game. Juice Scruggs was far better and he has a superior short shuttle.
The agility testing is key for the scheme. Wyper, JMS, Tippmann all have good or great agility.
I thought Stromberg looked really good against Alabama and generally improved Jr to Sr against tough competition. Does a nice job on combo blocks and transitioning to the second level. Hit or miss pass protection. Savvy.
Are you sure about Stromberg’s short shuttle Rob? I took these stats from Arkansas Pro Day, with Ricky Stromberg performing a pretty impressive 4.47ss. I believe Juice Scruggs had a 4.63ss at his Pro Day?
As a benchmark reference, I’ve put Creed Humphrey’s Pro Day times/ measurements next to Stromberg’s here below.
Ricky Stromberg – Center
Height: 6-3 – CH 6’4 2/8
Weight: 310 – CH 302
Arm: 33 1/4 – CH 32 1/4
Hand: 9 3/4 – CH 9 1/2
Bench Press (225 lbs): N/A – CH 29
Broad Jump: 9-3* – CH 9,4″
Vertical Jump: 32.5* – CH 33″
40-yard Dash: 5.26* – CH 5.11
20-yard Shuttle: 4.47 – CH 4.49
L Drill: 7.41 – CH 7.50
*NFL Combine
This is the URL for the Arkansas Pro Day results:
https://arkansas.rivals.com/news/results-highlights-from-arkansas-2023-pro-day
I’m really hoping we trade down from 20 to get an extra third as well. I’d love to be able to draft Tajae Spears RB with our additional third to be RB2 and add some explosiveness to our offense!
I’ve been able to get Spears in the fourth round in a lot of mocks and he’s just too good to pass up. He looks like he could be the next Austin Ekeler to me.
Pair him with a Chris Rodriguez or Evan Hull late in the draft and our RB room would be scary.
If Stroud was there at 5 and they passed on him for a corner or Tyree Wilson, it could end up being the last draft Schneider has a Seattle GM. No hyperbole.
My thoughts exactly
And deservedly so. If that were to happen, the amount of flatscreen TVs hitting landfills in the Seattle area the following week would be truly an environmental crisis.
What it would mean to me is Pete Carroll is 100% running the draft because I just don’t think John would do it. And in that case, shame on you for not going elsewhere John when the opportunity was there.
Schneider must be shaking in his boots with the strong language coming from Troy on the Seahawksdraftblog! Listen to reason John!
Scenario: select corner at five….pass on qb and either/ any you pass on work out….team gets sold how does John explain staying to a new owner?
With all due respect, how do you think he gets fired for that? Do you think its Jody Allen stepping in and firing him? No GM gets immediately fired over one draft pick unless they go completely off the rails with the pick, they pick someone against the owner’s clear wishes, or they were already about to be fired and the pick was the cherry on top.
I’d be pretty sad with that scenario, but I just don’t see Schneider being in the hot seat. Plus, I think it’s highly unlikely that Stroud absolutely balls out in year one.
I think if they did pass on Stroud and Richardson in favour of someone like a Witherspoon then you’d have to trust their assessment of those QBs.
They’ve met them all, done their homework. They picked Russ, we know they liked Mahomes and Allen. You’d have to conclude that they DO NOT see these guys in that bracket.
Big If though. Could this be some smoke to discourage teams looking to trade up with Arizona? Personally I don’t buy this latest twist and think they do go QB at 5 still. (It’s the contract for me – they’ve designed it perfectly to draft a qb).
If the plan is to keep rolling with Geno (contract shows that wasn’t the plan even a few weeks ago), and building up the defence and adding talent… I’m just not clear what your route to a future quarterback is there. Brian on HawkB spoke about taking late round fliers on QBs til you hit.
How often does that approach work??
That’s a great plan if you want to be really mediocre
Yeah man, I agree.
Its why am not 100% clear on your recent line of logic that they’d be very happy with ‘Anderson or Richardson’ at 5.
I mean I get it in terms of pure player grading, but those two picks set you off on two completely different strategic trajectories.
Surely you need to have a clear strategy with something like qb succession planning and stick with it.
I think earlier in the process when you were more on the track that everything about the Russ trade has been building towards this pick… for me that is the more logical route for them to go.
Unless having got up close with them they just have these QBs graded lower than we do or their bust-risk assessment is different.
If they think Anderson can be a great edge rusher, it’s logical they would consider taking him.
Having a plan to just hope you find a needle in a haystack late in the draft every year is a silly plan though. If they don’t take a QB this year, fine. But Brian’s plan is more likely to end up with a roster of Ryan Lindley’s than anything positive.
Anderson IMO is not an elite enough prospect (from your analysis of him) to take him over a QBoTF. It seems like there’s other good options at that position later on the draft like Will McDonald or Ade Ade.
It is very difficult to argue that the statistics do not square very, very well with Rob’s position here. And the only responses I ever get to that obvious point are “what about Russell Wilson and Trent Dilfer?”
Of course, it is also true that high pick QBs also fail or underperform at a depressing clip, but that’s the nature of the position, unfortunately.
It’s the nature of every position, frankly
But the main reasons QB’s bust early in the draft are simple:
— They are limited physically or lack talent but teams reach because of desperation
— They are rushed into starting too quickly
— They don’t have good enough coaches to bring the best out of the players
This is why I think Seattle would be ideal for a physically gifted QB, of which the top four in this class are
Also not coaching to the players’ skill set.
One of the biggest, most frustrating things for me in the NFL is when coaches take a QB with clear, discernible skills and try to force him to do things he is not proficient at.
High pick QBs often fail because they r taken by perineal bad teams with bad coaching staffs.
“…perineal…”
LOL!!! Yes, some teams do suck a**…
🤣🤣🤣
I don’t get the Trent Dilfer response.
Dilfer was carried by a historically great defense to a SB. Thats likely where that comes from.
I was thinking draft capital.
I’d just read about late round flyers at QB, and seeing Dilfer’s name, as the 6th overall pick, threw me off.
Go Hawks.
“The only responses I ever get to that obvious point are ‘what about Russell Wilson and Trent Dilfer?'” –Hawkdawg
You’ve gotten that response before? I don’t know that I’ve ever heard those two players mentioned in the same sentence. Weird.
If people say Trent different you should ask if they even know what American football is and have them look up his draft slot.
I seriously dont understand the fascination with mediocrity with this fanbase. These low IQ dumpster fire takes are just so damn lazy, and it seems like Rob is the only one in the community that actually puts in real analysis and knows what it takes to be more than just a lame mediocre team.
The “aw shucks, we’re just happy to be here,” playoff mentality is really annoying.
Think a lot of it has to do with the culture of the region and fanbase. So damn passive and weak, its why the media is also a joke, plays into my previous statement about the culture and fanbase.
Fans invest widely varying amounts of time in pre-draft research, yet those with the least time invested are every bit as opinionated as those with the most. These low-investment fans don’t want mediocrity; they’re simply content to operate from an information deficit when consuming sports entertainment. Technically, this practice is fine, but it’s a bad habit if it spills over into non-entertainment realms.
This isn’t really surprising to me.
My QB rankings have been Levis/Stroud/Richardson/Young for awhile.
Houston going defense makes a lot of sense, and AZ may find the trade market bare because they don’t have the bluff to say they want to stick and pick.
Seahawks fans will be torn with Stroud/Richardson/Carter on the board. My vote would be Stroud.
I’m very interested at guessing who is going to take Keion White.
Agreed on QB preferences if only Stroud and Richardson are left. Although the dreamer in me wouldn’t be crushed if we got Richardson.
One last brain-melting unbelievably impossible PFN before I swear off crazy mocks for the next two weeks:
With the 3 QBs and Anderson gone (and Will Levis incorrectly devalued) I traded #5 and #151 to Carolina. They offered DE Brian Burns, DT Derrick Brown and #39. They took Paris Johnson Jr at 5
+ $19.8m cap hit – $4.5m cap savings = $15.3m total cap charges
Will Levis slipped to #14, so I traded Quandre Diggs, Noah Fant and #20 to New England and took him. $16.75m cap savings – $.400 cap hit = $16.33m total cap savings
Vegas tossed me WR Hunter Renfrow to drop one spot so they could take C JMS. $7m cap hit
14. Will Levis QB
39. Jahmyr Gibbs RB
45. Will McDonald IV EDGE
52. Joel Tippman C
78. Christopher Smith II S
83. Israel Abanikanda RB
123. Jordan McFadden OT
I stopped there but add a CB, LB, S and another G with the final picks.
Darrell Taylor is expendable. Swap him for a 2024 3rd or 4th round pick and save $2m on the cap.
Need to find $5m of cap room to make this deal neutral. Extend one or both of Brown and Burns.
Let Burns go crazy in 2023 and franchise & flip him for a Frank Clark package in 2024.
Yeah, I’ve had that Carolina trade offer a bunch of times in my PFN mocks.
I always took any opportunity I could to trade away Noah Fant too. 🙂
I usually shied away from trades for players, but did accept some like C Cesar Ruiz from NO or WR Rashod Bateman from BAL. Reasonable contracts and already put some good film on tape in the NFL.
And definitely agreed that PFN devalues Levis quite a lot. For that matter, Joe Tippman is usually available in the 80s too.
Every time I do the PFN mock, Vegas wants to dump Josh Jacobs on me. Every single time.
Just for fun, I always trade back a minimum of three times and end up with 9 or ten players in the first three rounds, and every one of them is a well regarded prospect here at SDB.
It’s absolutely ludicrous.
Been having a fun time with players added for trades. So many interesting options.
Stroud at 5 and I’m crying real tears. The impossible dream
Username… doesn’t check out. 😉
(But I’d be joining you!)
Hahaha very pro any of these 4 QBs having the opportunity to cook for the hawks
Rob, have you talked about Tyler Scott (WR-CIN)?
I see you’ve got a round 4 grade on him. He reminds me a bit of a young Lockett with better speed. I’ve heard him talked up as a ‘riser’ and wondering if he could be an option if he’s there in rd 3+
If the nfl does indeed view this as a weak WR class, it could push all of them down.
Quick but not great speed for his size, worry about the size a little bit because he’s not technically there yet in terms of routes and dealing with physical corners. In round four worth a shot IMO but wary of going earlier. Like him don’t love him.
Thanks. PFN has an article that said he ran a 4.29 and he looks really fast (but not sudden). Long speed might be better than short.
I’ve also seen his weight at anywhere from 170 to 185. He doesn’t look as slight as like Tank Dell, so maybe closer to 180…
Haven’t liked the later WR’s that much. Day 3, I like him and Bryce Ford-Wheaton. Michael Wilson but he’s always hurt. Like that he’s a willing blocker though.
That was a pro-day time which is always suspicious
This looks like an overallpoor receiver class to me after last year’s bounty. There’s a few potential gems (I really like Flowers, Downs, and Mingo) that if they could be had at the right price might pay off very well. But otherwise, it’s just a whole lot of JAGs that you’re hoping to pick up in the late rounds and hope they break out early.
If we don’t get a WR3 candidate we really like, I expect them to save the late picks for other positions and work the UDFA wires hard.
Jake Bobo might be a good late pick. Probably doesn’t test well (I have seen no results), but is very athletic, seems to get open and has good hands. I see a touch of Cooper Kupp.
HIs team mate Tre Tucker has caught my attention as far as a later round pick is concerned? He’s quite an explosive runner, would be good on Special Teams from the start.
It seems like a large portion of the fan base thinks that the QB position will just magically take of itself. The team has been extremely lucky with trading for Hasselbeck and then getting Wilson in the 3rd round and then Geno playing better then expected last year and that has created this 20+ year run of fans assuming that the team will pull another rabbit out of the hat whenever they need to. I think it would be exciting to actual see them take a shot at 5 with a clear plan on someone with superstar potential.
This!
Every Seahawks fan who lived through the 90’s remembers well the fresh hell of QB purgatory we lived through. And it wasn’t for a lack of spending draft capital on prospects.
There is definitely some of that going on
Meanwhile we have no idea whether this staff can put a competent defense together, even with investment. We’ve had years of toil and struggle on defense now.
People also think we’re entering or nearing a Super Bowl window
We’re not even close
Thing is though Rob, they will never “enter” a SB window without a long term solution/Franchise QB.
There have been 10 instances in which a team has won the Super Bowl and did not have the same starting quarterback three years later.
So I would say it isn’t terribly out of the realm of possibility to win with “a guy” vs a franchise qb. And I think that is going to get more common as these QB salary’s get more and more out of control
Thing is though, the last 10 SB winners have been mostly by elite QBs and elite QB play. Lot of Brady, Mahomes. Mahomes already 2 rings and he did it with a below average defense.
And they did it with tiny cap hits. Even to this day his cap hit. Only last year did his cap jump into the 30s.
Another reason to have dumped Wilson and his manager, at the end of the day he has always cared more about the $. Mahomes did a deal that gave God team massive flexibility
My phone keyboard does weird things at times
Well done, my man. I declare without any authority that KC shall be known as God Team on the blog hereforth.
I loved Russ for the first 5-6 years, but you’re right about him only wanting max money.
They haven’t even played their next great quarterback, Lock! Talk about untapped potential at quarterback.
If the Hawks are adamant on going defense at 5 and Anderson is off the board I would not rule out Witherspoon.
Carter had obvious character ref flags and Tyree Wilson is underwhelming on tape. I really don’t see a better option on the defensive side of the ball. He is increibly physical and would be a tone setter on the back end that this team lacks.
Personally I want them to take Richardson, Stroud or Levis then go defense with the next pick but I would not be upset if they toon Witherspoon over Carter and Wilson.
Passing on an once in a generation opportunity to get a QBOTF, for a CB is an unforgivable mistake and should question JS’s abilities as a GM.
Completely disagree. I would question why he even stayed in Seattle when he had the opportunity to leave only to be Pete Carroll’s bobo because imo that would be a pick that got forced on him by Pete. Why would you be that big of a wuss?
In other words it would prove he never was anything more than a GM in name only and that he was scared to leave for Detroit (iirc). So “questioning his abilities as a GM” would be pointless because he never was a real GM in the first place.
If that were truly the case, then I would completely lose interest in the team until both of them are gone. I think the fire PC/JS chants would come roaring back with that kind of dumpster fire of a move.
Yeah it would really kill huge amount of my enthusiasm as well. The worst part would be watching Stroud/Richardson go somewhere and turn into the next Allen/Herbert
Yep, like I mentioned, unforgivable mistake. Completely tarnishes both of their legacies.
I agree. Just saying I think he is a better option than Carter or Wilson.
100% agree with you. I love the player and would be glad to have him, but that would feel like a letdown at #5. He’d have to come in and be a Kam/Sherm hybrid year one to feel good about it. Which he could, but those odds are long and a guy his size could injure his way out of the league quickly too.
But I love a mofo who hits people like they just slapped his mama.
Jim Irsay, doing Jim Irsay things
https://twitter.com/jimirsay/status/1647693119419187201?s=46&t=QnF6gJmc6OM1fOYBLmUnjg
They should definitely try and trade down for a QB 😆
I’m so careful to not commit Karmic Suicide…
I’m so thankful for the Allens, not looking forward to a new ownership group.
I was so disappointed that Bezos didn’t buy the commanders.
If you want to know what a billion-dollar franchise looks like in the hands of Jeff Bezos, I submit to you ‘Rings of Power’—by far the most expensive television show ever made. Professor J.R.R. Tolkien would surely have been so proud.
Yeah Rings of Power really put me off. He’ll need to redeem himself before buying the Hawks!
I feel they did rings of power better than wheel of time, that was hugely disappointing…. These show runners these days…
Jesus, put a trigger warning before mentioning Wheel of Time…
I live in constant fear that Amazon will buy The Kingkiller Chronicles
lol
Another bottle of tequila for Mr. Irsay’s table please.
Reminds me of this
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A0-AD3bFjF8
Ok Jim got it
I asked last week what would happen if Anderson and Wilson went in the top 3, leaving two of Stroud, Young, or Richardson (I’d already agreed that Levis was going to Indianapolis.).
Well, at least now, that question will be debated by many people.
Looking forward to everyone’s thoughts.
In that unlikely event, It’s Stroud IMO. But AR is neck and neck with him because of the god-like QB traits and it will come down to the team at the VMAC and where they see them. We cannot lose with either selection, really. What a glorious dillema that would be and I would be pumped for whichever option they chose.
I have really enjoyed scouting Bryce Young and have come around a lot in doing so. But I can’t shake the size concerns. He’s built like a high school QB. If I was GM, he’s not even in the conversation if Stround and Richardson are there.
Stroud is a fine prospect, but it’s AR all day for me. Take a shot in the guy who has a shot to be a true field tilter.
Stroud I see as more like Geno. Throws a beautiful ball, great execution from the pocket, decent athlete if a bit stiff, some evidence of success when things break down but inconsistent in that regard. I have some concerns with projecting consistent pre and post snap consistency due to how much was done for him at OSU, as Rob noted throughout the year.
Rob. Love the mock! QB, offensive player and 2 DL – sign me up!!!
Been thinking this plays to the board given lots of good DL depth likely available in late 2 and round 3.
Would prefer QB, Ade Ade, WM4 and at 53 a center (or any offensive player) but this may be a bit late for a premium center (or TE, WR OR RB).
If this team passes on a possible QBoTF, be it Stroud or Richardson for a Witherspoon or Wilson, it’ll imo reflect very poorly on Pete Carroll because it’ll be pretty strong evidence that he’s desperate to do something,anything besides lose in WC round as his time as HC winds to a close. It would reflect even more poorly on John Schneider because it would point to me that he never really had much if any say in how things were done in Seattle. A pock this high is, as they’ve both stated, an opportunity that is very very rare. It would be unforgivable to take another Big12 Edge which has been a fail for you in the past or a corner when you’ve been successful developing the position in the past.
I don’t think we could draw any conclusions about John Schneider’s decision-making power based off who they end up selecting at #5. What if John thinks that the QBs remaining at #5 are not worth taking? We don’t know what he knows.
Really?
The question has to be asked what does he do?
I mean the cap sucks. The team isn’t better or worse than any other recent year.
You’re raising a different point. All I’m saying is that we can’t assume John has no control of the drafting choices if the team doesn’t draft a QB at 5. It could very well be his decision not to draft any of the remaining QBs based on the intel he has obtained.
I am praying we don’t get Jalen Carter. Yes he has talent but the obvious character issues, fatigue, and motor are very concerning. I watched him vs Ohio state and TCU and he was a non factor and was in and out. He’s got Malik McDowell written all over him.
I’m fine taking him with our second pick.. not first
Gonna have to disagree with you there. The Cardinals are a perfect fit for such a player! As a Seahawks fan I would applaud the pick for several reasons.
🤣
The guys who were there in AZ to learn the lesson Robert Nkemdiche dealt them have been fired, so we can hope they will watch Carter’s highlights and discount whether conditioning and love of football really matters.
CB at 5 Witherspoon – a human missile in a small package, reeks of Bob Saunders 2.0 We know how that goes. Secondly, if he turned into a pro bowl CB, and you have Woolen looking to extend AND Witherspoon – you’re guaranteed to lose one of them. Back to square 1. Oh, and maybe by then we have Mariota at QB.
In regards to Lombardi in the video – mentioned last week that he’s heard Stroud “wasn’t an easily coachable guy”. Then he states in this video that AR isn’t “alpha male”, but is a good character but won’t push his team etc etc…paraphrasing. Lombardi was the GM for Raiders and Browns for the J Russell and Johnny Manziel drafts. How the fuck do we take anything he has to say for intangibles like coach-ability or leadership with anything but a micro % of a grain of salt?
I’m happy for his take on AR. Let it propagate. I look forward to the howls of REACH from the idiotwebs when we take Richardson at #5 with big, fat smiles on our faces.
Please let it come to pass
Agree!
In fairness, he wanted nothing to do with Russell. That was an Al Davis pick.
And it’s long since been revealed that Manziel wasn’t on the Browns’ draft board. Then ownership stepped in. They made the pick.
If there is a quarterback you like get him. But we need more than just a qb of the future. Who are some players we could draft who could immediately start for this team and be a serious upgrade? And at what spots? (This is why Carter is still tempting even with his issues. Need meets talent… But… I really don’t want to start another squabble about Carter!!) The big question is how many starters can we find in this years draft class?? That are clear upgrades?? Ranked in order of needs I’d say: Defensive tackle, wide receiver, cornerback, running back, edge, linebacker, int OL. Are we going to find 3 or 4 starters?
I still don’t understand why people think Carter can start immediately and upgrade anything.
He has conditioning issues which will take time to improve (if he’s even able to). He’s going to get paid $30m and have a whole summer to himself. Why does anyone think he’s going to be living in the gym during that period? He’s not taken well to coaching, per McShay and he did what he wanted at Georgia. How can anyone watch that Ohio State game and think this guy is ready to play 75% of the snaps for 17 NFL games? It’s a pipe dream. He’s as much of a project as anyone. It might take a year or two to get him in shape and change his approach/attitude to his career.
Nobody ever mentions this. It’s just assumed he’s a plug and play week one starter/dynamo.
“Why does anyone think he’s going to be living in the gym during that period?”
Because Jalen Carter will be “tucked away up in Seattle”, with Bobby the Diaper Man running point for him as he submits to the motivational sermonizing of Cliff and Kam and Sherm and…well, not Sherm, but you get the point. Oh, you’re so cynical, Rob!
Agree that it will take time for him to play 75% of the snaps for 17 NFL games.
But he doesn’t need to play 75% of the snaps in order to upgrade the line and make a difference in games.
I don’t buy for one second that Carter is a “project” in the sense that word is usually used to talk about draft prospects. He is widely regarded as one of the most talented (if not THE MOST talented) player in this draft based off his performance on the field. He’s not just some guy who made a few splash plays.
So how many splash plays did he make against Ohio State, the closest thing to a NFL game that he played last year?
How many snaps will he be able to play without, in his words, putting in an embarrassing performance?
30%?
So let’s take a rotational rusher with a top five pick and hope that at some point in the next 24 months he can be arsed to practise and work out? Something he wasn’t inclined to do at Georgia?
This is the point. All people talk about is talent. If he doesn’t sort himself out and commit to this, that Ohio State game is what you’ll get at the next level
People occasionally compare Anthony Richardson to Jamarcus Russell. Jalen Carter is far closer to Russell as a comp.
It might take two years to get him thinking and acting like a pro. Easily. That’s how dramatic the change has to be. People act like he’s a ready made, high percentage snap impact player. His body is nowhere near that and neither is his application or work ethic.
Thus, a project.
Great players have bad games sometimes. I don’t think it’s wise to draw major conclusions from one disappointing game.
I know you aren’t supportive of the Seahawks selecting Carter because of all the character concerns. It’s possible to hold that position without downplaying the fact that this kid can play though. And play well.
No one (outside of this blog community) is debating Jalen’s skill and talent. He will be drafted in the top 10 because he is more than just a guy who “made some splash plays”. That is why he will immediately upgrade whatever D-line he joins. Pure talent.
Unlike Anthony Richardson, no one is suggesting that Jalen should sit for a year and learn the position before taking the field. That is why people in the league have referred to Anthony as a “project”. They have not used that term to describe Jalen.
He didn’t have a ‘bad game’.
He had a game where his appalling conditioning was exposed to an embarrassing (his words) extent. He said after the game he was ‘running sprints’ every day he was so embarrassed by that game. It shines a light on all of the concerns about his work ethic, dedication, the way he would do what he wanted at Georgia.
Neither was it a one-off. He looked exhausted against LSU too, when the Tigers had a long drive to start the game. When he had his snaps managed in easy wins for Georgia, everything was fine. In the big contests, where he had to play more, his conditioning was exposed.
But you’ve done this before. Last time we talked about Carter you refused to accept anything and just kept making excuses for him.
Nope, you’ve completely misrepresented my position.
I’ve opined that I don’t think the Seahawks will draft him and have backed up my opinion in detail. That detail includes speaking to people ‘in the league’ to get the fullest possible idea of him as a prospect.
It’s nothing to do with me ‘supporting’ anything. I’m talking about what I think will/won’t happen and sharing opinions and information.
I haven’t ever said he lacks talent.
In fact I’ve consistently said that he does.
Don’t put words in my mouth. And I can turn it on you. It’s OK for you to actually accept some of the concerns being raised here, rather than constantly excuse-make (‘everyone has a bad game’).
If you’re going to imply that this community is debating his skill and talent, I think I’ll move this on for you. Because it’s simply not true and a bad-faith tactic on your behalf.
And yet he’ll probably spend a year (or two) working on his conditioning to be able to actually play in the NFL. People don’t realise that.
You, of course, never will. Because you’ve found a shiny thing you want and are willing to say anything to prop that up.
I’m not going back and forth on the carter issue. You’ve been very clear with your pov! And pretty persuasive. Can we get 4 starters out of this draft? That’s more of where my mind is/was going. 3 starters?
Yet it keeps coming up…
Starters? There might be an edge rusher, interior offensive lineman, or corner that could take a spot, but I think most will be depth and developing. QB? Maybe if they get Levis. RB, no. WR, no. TE, maybe. Guard or center, good chance. Defensive line, maybe a pass rush end. Maybe a third safety. And, finally, a pick might beat out Jackson at corner.
If we get 2 starters out of the draft, after last years haul, I will be happy.
This is some good intel, appreciate it Rob.
I’m sure getting tired of Seattle fans who are now saying “you can’t compare Malik McDowell to Jalen Carter because Carter is more talented.” Nobody warning against Carter is saying they are similar talents (although I think many are forgetting that many considered McDowell to be a top-10 talent but had character red flags). From what I remember, McDowell’s issue was motor/effort and maturity red flags. I don’t know that he even had off-field concerns. You could probably argue Carter has more red flags with conditioning issues, concerns over practice/taking to coaching, plus off-field concerns over speeding then weeks later deciding to race someone who was 2.5x over the legal limit. The draft can’t get here soon enough because this discourse is tiring.
I believe from what Rob has said/not said, regarding Carter – which to me translates in extra circular activities non related to the football field/practice/work ethic….which can only be implied to be – and this is conjecture on my part – perhaps there have been accusations/legal entanglements that were buried. And they were far more serious than speeding/racing/leaving the scene. Or he has substance/alcohol issues.
Any of those would be “not for me to speak about” as Rob has said. But also every team would be aware of. Just my 2 cents.
This draft can’t come soon enough, only because the internet narrative (and other bloggers who shall remain nameless), can’t connect a QB at 5 if their lives depended on it. The same experts who were screaming when Seattle passed on Willis, Ridder, Howell last year and exploded to think KW3 was the worst pick in team history.
Amen for Rob, and the contributions everyone on here. Seattle PI, NewTribune chats (Sando era upward) have n nothing on this place!
Nope — I have not heard anything of that sort and there is nothing to indicate any of that exists.
What I’ve heard about is about practise habits, effort, what was happening at Georgia, background and upbringing, conditioning and the legal issue we know about. Some of which I’ve discussed, some of which has been reported elsewhere and some of which I’m not going to go into because I don’t think it’s appropriate and I’m not interested in being a reporter type, especially on topics like this.
It’s helped me shape my opinion on whether Seattle will take him (I don’t think they will) but I appreciate there’s a chance someone else will with a high-ish pick (eg Howie Roseman).
appreciate the clarification.
McDowell was also taken at pick 35, not pick 5.
Exactly, I don’t mind taking a flier on Carter in that range, but no way at 5
Detroit with Richardson or Stroud in a couple years could be a force. I like what Campbell has been doing there.
At the 17:04 mark in the VSiN segment above, notice the BetMGM NFC Championship odds. They’ve got Detroit at #4 in the conference. Seattle? Not even on the list. I expect most of the books have the Hawks down around #20 in the league overall, which is fair considering strength-of-schedule was the leading factor in last year’s surprise playoff appearance.
100%
And some fans think we’re in a window now!
If we would’ve just beat the 49ers we would’ve totally won the Super Bowl.
Oh football gods please let CJ Stroud end up a Seahawk 🙌
I’m having a hard time believing we’re actually thinking we have a shot at 5 or 3. I haven’t been this eager for a draft ever though.
Rob
Just caught you as special guest on the pod…great rundown of the qbs and draft.
Wondering if you might speculate a bit on trade down from 5?
I know it’s not preferred and probably unlikely. However, the confluence of recent developments has this top of mind for me again:
1. Increasing uncertainty at the top of the draft
2. Push/pull of John/Pete and a possible defensive player mandate
3. Lack of viable defenders at #5
1. We know there’s wide variance on qb rankings and teams interest. As a result it’s possible that a seeming consensus #1 could fall to us. Initially Young, then Stroud, Richardson, who knows? Defender options have now gone beyond Anderson and Carter to Wilson and now Witherspoon. Really? Witherspoon at #5? There’s always some movement in the waning weeks, but I have to say, can we simply conclude that this is a draft with some good qbs prospects and not much else in the way of bonafide day 1 picks? Maybe #5 isn’t worth the $30m investment if you’re left with a 180 lb corner who misses a lot of tackles?
2/3. Who can say where Pete and John are at after 12 years, many failed drafts, a failed mutiny by their franchise qb and simply not seeing eye to eye. But, if the QB they’re left with is not one John wants at #5 (do we want another 10 years of not throwing over the middle?), and we’re left with a choice of Malik Jr or a corner you’ve got at second best as a round 1/2 pick, do we feel good about that? There just aren’t a lot of defenders that warrant a top 5 pick with top 5 money.
You’ve written about the potential chaos at the top of the draft and I think we have to discuss its cause: massive uncertainty. In the wake of this, the number of defenders that actually grade out in round 2, and finally the fact that most teams still use jimmy Johnson’s trade value chart that favors trade down…
Is it possible John wins and that means trade down from 5?
I don’t see a scenario where they trade down.
We all thought they would the last two years too — and they didn’t
While it is totally plausible that they would like all 4 quarterbacks, I think it is worth considering what happens if they determine one or two aren’t a good fit for one reason or another. If you’re choosing between Wilson, Witherspoon, Skoronski…maybe you just take the highest on your board, but that’s when trading down becomes an option IMO.
But why? Wouldn’t I then also have to consider them hating the defensive players? When does it stop? I prefer to judge the players and their fit and base my work around that, rather than just do scenarios for the sake of it.
Besides, they aren’t trading down and taking a guard.
Fair enough. Not expecting you to write about every possible scenario! I just think there is a real possibility that they will end up in a situation where there isn’t a player they live at 5. The conversation has narrowed a bit too much IMO to qb/Anderson/Wilson/Carter.
Trading down from #20 seems like the more realistic scenario. Depending on how the draft falls, there may be:
– The last good CB
– The last good OT
– The first WR
– Bijan/Mayer types that have ‘slipped’
The teams behind us there are playoff teams that may feel they are 1-2 pieces away from a title. The teams behind us at #5 have a ton of holes and would only be trading up for a QB, that we might be hard pressed to pass on ourselves.
I don’t see nearly as many scenarios where we’re sitting at #20 and saying – “we have to get this guy” – as I do at #5.
“When Richardson got done playing, everybody said…’He needs to go back for another year.’ Now, all of a sudden we’re talking about making him the third pick overall in the draft. What happened to that conversation? The further we get away from tape, the less logical we become, which is really a problem.” –Michael Lombardi
Why would Anthony Richardson “need” to continue his quarterback studies in Gainesville when the NFL has clearly shown a willingness to redshirt and develop premier talents at the position? The entire premise of drafting a not-yet-ready quarterback up top is to sit him for a year or two while providing him world-class training, free of collegiate obligations and distractions. Sounds plenty logical to me, assuming the player’s intrinsic motivation and dedication are legit.
As for Richardson not being an alpha male: I don’t worry about that at all. Anybody who has studied leadership knows (1) there are many styles of leadership, and (2) leadership skills can be developed. It’s not for nothing that leadership training is mandatory in the military for those who enter the NCO ranks or receive their commission, and it’s taught in seminaries, universities, and corporations from coast to coast. NFL teams foster leadership networks throughout their organizations and particularly within their quarterback rooms, so is there anything about Richardson’s character that suggests he won’t be up to the task of adapting to this league-wide requirement?
Case in point: Eugene Cyril Smith III.
Most definitely Malanch. In 3 weeks time I’ve gone from worrying about having ideal options at 5 to being more worried about those options being passed over. Im in the ‘just let the draft get here so I don’t lose my mind’ camp. Uff da.
exactly on point re leadership. It’s as if Lombardi was trying to squeeze any sort of blood from a stone to put a knock on AR. Did Seattle have a problem with Wilson’s clap ra ra sideline leadership blended in with a repeat of cliche chants? NO – Denver did though LMAO
I agree but I think Lombardi was linking the high draft position for AR with NFL readiness. His next sentence he (correctly) says Levis is ready to start in 2023 and AR is not.
He then talks about Lamar needing a redshirt year after being drafted so late. It’s a bit specious, as we all know it wasn’t Lamar’s readiness to play that pushed him down the board.
What he seems to pass off his Richardson’s immense talent and already demonstrated skill pushes him that high, even with the redshirt year being needed.
Without being in the war room or actual interviews with these guys, I have been super impressed by ARs attitude and charisma. Sounds like he mostly raised his little brother and trained as a junior fire fighter in case football didn’t workout. He’s a flippin fireman man! Who doesn’t like them? He seems fun too, and a lot of people around him have expressed his willingness to be coached. Those all sound like the kind of traits that will rub off on his teammates. Leadership by example is as good a brand as any.
This really feels like teams trying to incite a draft haul type trade at the top. Disinformation period pre-draft. For Houston to pass on a QB would be stunning given how this class is graded. I can definitely see Arizona being stuck and having to draft at 3, but come draft day I think we’d be very lucky to end up with a choice of either Stroud or Richardson. I feel our front office is plyable and will make the right choice. For us QBOTF fans, we might actually get our wish.
I don’t think Houston’s owner will let them pass on a QB.
And that’s according to Lance Zierlien’s speculation.
Where has Lance said that?
The decision maker for me, between Stroud and Richardson, comes down to the Georgia game with Stroud doing everything he could to get a win.
It was the one moment, all year, where I looked at him as something other than a system QB. He extended plays, made reads on the fly, and never looked rattled. Ice water in the veins type of performance.
To me, that speaks to him being a very disciplined prospect. He played within the structure of OSU’s game plan all year long. However, once it became a matter of win or go home, he took over. His will to win was what propelled him during that game and showcased his ability to put the team on his shoulders and carry them, almost to a win. Some of those plays had NFL written all over them, and he made them look almost effortless.
That’s why I have him over Richardson. Well, that and his arm. That truly magnificent, golden arm.
I’m just very concerned that everyone had all these concerns with Stroud his entire career and then just saw one good game and decided to ignore them.
I kind of agree with you here. While I was impressed by the Georgia game and am less concerned than I was before that it doesn’t completely absolve him. One good game isn’t enough to convince me he’s the absolute hands down best pick. I’m actually nervous at the thought of choosing between him and AR. It was much easier when we thought stroud just wasn’t possible and we would probably only have 1 qb option.
I’m still leaning Richardson in that situation; but wouldn’t be upset with either.
If Anderson & Wilson are gone; we still go edge at #5; I’ll be throwing thi
I’m still leaning Richardson in that situation; but wouldn’t be upset with either.
If Anderson & Wilson are gone; we still go edge at #5; I’ll be throwing things.
Especially if it’s Murphy.
Looks like we could get the opportunity to get one of the 2 QBs we’d like, but still not take one.
Sigh……
Sure seems to be a lot of Witherspoon smoke recently regarding the Hawks. Apparently, he was in town. We all know this regime has never drafted a corner higher than the 3rd round, but the idea of having him & Tariq as your bookend corners for the next handful of years is pretty enticing.
Has anyone done any mocks where they have SEA move down a few spots (and pick up an extra top 75 pick or so) & pick Witherspoon? I did & it turned out to be a really solid draft.
An example: I traded #5 to CHI for #9 & #53. I ended up with:
#9 – Devon Witherspoon
#20 – Calijah Kancey
#37 – Mazi Smith
#52 – Joe Tippman
#53 – Jack Campbell
#83 – Byron Young
I’d be happy with that as a Hawks fan. We can debate the players I drafted but you get the idea. Lots of edges in the 20-52 range & some other solid players in the 50’s.
No thank you. Jack Cambell moves like an OT.
His RAS is elite:
https://ras.football/ras-information/?PlayerID=23276&ovl=Iowa
I am getting the feeling we will trade down from pick 5
I doubt it, personally
So why did the Hawks send everyone to all 4 QB’s Pro days? I mean, do they really need a so called ‘smokescreen’ if all are taken within the first 4 picks and they don’t want a QB? They have time to waste flying around and ‘getting to know guys’, when they will just trade back?
They don’t do smokescreens, they don’t waste time, especially a 71 year old coach.
Doubt they trade down from 5 when they will get either a QB or Anderson. However, a small move down from 20 seems like a good option, where there are still plenty of decent players to pick from & the extra pick in compensation will help them fill another roster spot.
Apropos of nothing, I thought I would just mention that I think they will go more for offensive players at the top end of the draft (except perhaps EDGE, where Ade Ade is a nice option if they don’t get Anderson at 5) as there are more decent defensive players later on. Michael Mayer I particularly like for them but he will likely go earlier than 20 (despite my constantly being able to pick him up on the PFN simulator). Zach Charbonnet would be my draft crush player though. Just a big, physical RB who would compliment Kenneth Walker perfectly and is very Riggins-esque in his style of play. Also, like Rob, I do like Zacch Pickens at DT later on.
Out of idle curiosity, I checked the last 20 or so mock drafts on nflmockdraftdatabase.com and here is who the general NFL draft writers are slotting us at #5
Jalen Carter – 11 mocks
Tyree Wilson – 5
Anthony Richardson – 5
Will Anderson – 1
CJ Stroud – 1
Trade down – 1 (Miles Murphy at #12)
Wait, so we can’t just find a Russell Wilson in every single draft in the mid rounds?! All these people saying to just draft a guy on day 3 don’t mention who they would pick. DTR is not even 200 pounds soaking wet. If you’re just taking shots on QBs on day 3 of the NFL draft, then you’re not going to find a QB. That’s such an idiotic strategy.
Hey just get the next Brock Purdy at the end if the 7th. I’m sure we could trade for that pick.
Hawkblogger is such a dunce with how he hates the QB position. I swear he has a blind allegiance to Geno Smith for some reason and that QBs just grow on trees. If I had a dollar for every time he was wrong, I’d be able to buy the Seahawks. I know this community doesn’t flip over the Hawkblogger crew in general and that it’s kind of futile to bring up their idiotic takes all the time, but I had to get that off my chest lol
There really is no shortage of low IQ smooth brain garbage from this fanbase whether it’s from content creators or from the fans and media. Rob is truly a treasure to have covering this team.
Wilson502, I agree! I may not agree with Rob all the time, but at least he backs up takes with statistics, facts, or other things. There’s plenty I don’t agree with, but I can see where he is coming from. Instead of the usual takes that make you want to gouge out your eyes like the “Jalen Carter wil b a gr8 Seahawk becuz Petey picked a bad boi 1 time!”
Bryce Young is barely 200 lbs soaking wet, too.
I keep having these Nostradamus moments where I see into the future and it’s always that empty, haunted, glazed-over, wide-eyed stare from Pete as he tries to avoid looking directly at both the camera and interviewer after being questioned about the success of the QBs from the ’23 class.
“We just thought that (fill-in-the-failed pick) could really help put our defense, you know, over the top and get us back to where we wanted to go and he’s been really, really, you know, good – really solid – but, you know, we had Geno and all that and we really needed a (fill-in-position) so we felt really good, absolutely jacked, about making that call, but those guys, you know, the ’23 QBs, have all been, you know, marvelous, but it’s all a crap shoot and you do what you, you know, feel is right to get where you want go. We’re super pumped about this 2027 draft, though, and really looking forward to getting back out there and, you know, getting after it.”
We have no solid proof beyond a suspiciously good draft in ’22 that JS actually wields any real power. For all we know, Big Mike has as much sway on draft day as JS. There doesn’t seem to be a tremendous amount of accountability for the power hierarchy, so who’s going to call out Pete if he drafts like the future is now and the Super Bowl window is wide open – especially when the local coverage wants so badly to agree?
I’m Nostradamically-optimistic that this could turn into whatever a half-step above disaster is.
This is the last thing I read before going to bed and I’m now miserable 😂
Mission: Accomplished.
Sadly it’s entirely possible it plays out just like this, or at least very close to it. You did leave out the part where the failed pick helps leave the defense bottom quarter of the league. “We’re going to fix this issue”.
Now excuse me while I go sob uncontrollably in the corner.
I think I would just tune out and lose any interest in the Seahawks if it plays out like that.
Don’t worry, just go into the draft thinking like 2012 – I mean who here would rather have only one Cox vs Bruce + Howard!
With the 12 pick in the nfl draft, the Seattle Seahawks trade down to 15 for 114 in order to not draft Fletcher Cox or Michael Brockers as “Bruce Irvin” was their guy:
With the 114th pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, which the Seattle Seahawks acquired from the Philadelphia Eagles in the trade mentioned earlier, the Seahawks selected Jaye Howard, a defensive tackle from the University of Florida.
Jaye Howard played for the Seahawks during his rookie season in 2012, but he was waived by the team during the following preseason. He was then claimed off waivers by the Kansas City Chiefs, where he played for several seasons and was part of the team that won Super Bowl LIV during the 2019 NFL season.
Also keep in mind, Rob had Cox going 9 overall in that draft…. So ya, we benefit from his analysis, but reality can in most cases be disappointing. I’m sure if Rob had thought Cox would be available at 12, he would have mocked him to the hawks.
I’m suspicious why you are so quiet about your influence on JS is?….
This is a little bit too true to be funny 😅😅😭😭
The only QB we can draft has to have Peyton Manning’s pre-snap skills, Tom Brady’s post-snap and pocket skills, John Elway’s arm strength, Dan Marino’s accuracy & touch, Joe Montana’s demeanor, Mike Vick’s running skills, Cam Newton’s size, never had a bad game in college, and not turn 21 until after the season starts. Otherwise it’s too risky.
And 4 teams have to pass on him too.
Don’t worry, there will be one next year and we’ll trade up for that guy.
Painfully possible outcome as we find it was Myles Murphy at #5.
Stroud at #5…Let’s Ride!!!
Grab D at #20 & #37, then take the BPA train for the rest of the draft.
I’m glad to see Chatgpt is on point with regards to Rob:
Do you have any information from Rob Stanton
I’m sorry, but I don’t have any information about Rob Stanton. Can you please provide more context or details about who Rob Stanton is? This will help me better understand and provide you with the information you are looking for.
7j8ju8ws@duck.com
He is the author of Seahawksdraftblog.com
Rob Staton is a well-known blogger who writes about the Seattle Seahawks and their draft prospects on his website, Seahawksdraftblog.com. He is considered one of the foremost authorities on the Seahawks’ draft strategies and is known for his detailed analysis and insights into the team’s decision-making process.
Staton has been covering the Seahawks and their drafts for over a decade, and his website has become a popular destination for fans who are interested in following the team’s draft plans and player evaluations. He is widely respected in the Seahawks community and has been interviewed and quoted by various media outlets for his expertise and knowledge of the team.
It would have helped if I hadn’t misspelled your last name Rob. lol
Lombardi’s intel suggests the Raiders would have their choice of Stroud or Richardson at pick 7…
Some interesting insights from Peter King. Sounds like league consensus is Young goes 1 overall and the Seahawks are taking Carter at 5. Hope that second part is wrong.
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/04/17/commanders-snyder-nfl-draft-rumors-peter-king-fmia/
To quote Vader in return of the Sith, “NoooOoooOoooooooo!!”
Cue people asking me about Carter all over again because people who don’t work for the Seahawks think something will happen 🤦♂️
Evaluation is so hard.
Maybe it’s just because we are picking in the top five this year.
But the way the media is pumping stuff like this out, this year, has been headache-inducing.
Wilson is Ryans’ Bosa? Really?
I mean it’s barely believable. Even if you like Wilson that’s a comp that should never be made.
I said at the beginning of the season to stink out loud for Stroud.. I’d love to get Anderson, Stroud or Richardson.
I will be unbelievably flat if we fluke our way into a top five pick in a draft year with four genuinely exciting quarterbacks and wind up taking a good but entirely unexceptional corner.
It’s madness if true. If you’re going to throw a draft like that at least have the decency to trade down and pick up some middle round picks so you can waste them too.
While I’m firmly against Carter at 4, I’ve tinkered around with reasonable scenarios where the Seahawks trade out of 4 for picks, remain in the top 10 and draft him. It feels interesting to say the least and the Seahawks are doing a lot of home work on him it seems.
IF, he can be turn it around by being around a good locker room, and you pair him with say, someone like Kancey and or Adebawore at edge.. that feels like the makings of a game wrecking front. It would at least give the Seahawks defense a much needed identity again. If this hypothetical plan totally backfired good change they’ll be in the conversation for Caleb Williams at worst lmao.
I don’t think either of these scenarios will occur, but I’m curious…hypothetically, which is a more likely scenario? Seattle trading back from 5, or trading number 20 to move up?
Are they?
Or are they doing the same amount of homework as everyone else — aka due diligence — and the nature of Carter’s background just means you have to do more (and not in a good way)
Excellent write up Rob, thanks for all the extra information.
Would be very interesting to see if the draft went Young, Anderson, & Wilson.
I’d be excited & extremely worried all at the same time; Just seeing you dream draft scenario playout, & know there’s still a good chance they reach for Defense.
It would be absolute hell for the Hawks if they take a CB at 5. Think about the ‘take a qb committee’ & ‘Carter cult’ coming together to spam every post.
On a side note, one thing that bothers me when it comes to conditioning of an athlete is the assumption that it can/will get better. I’ve worked with a lot of athletes and many would struggle to improve their conditioning at their size. Especially when you’re looking at larger athletes, (pharmaceuticals + copious amounts of food), you’re putting a lot of stress on the heart and lungs as is. Many will hit a wall, where they’ll have to cut weight to improve their performance.
💯💯💯💯💯💯💯
Last year we found out about 22 of the VMAC visitors. This year we’re also at 22 if we count (probably) local visitor Kelee Ringo.
Well, at least we know Will Levis could play special teams if it doesn’t work out for him at QB… 😉
https://twitter.com/CBSSports/status/1594078935255379968
Maybe levis could teach arm tackling and wrapping up to the dline, adams, brooks and do a mini camp for barton.
Another DT to take a look at.
Arms though
Thinking about WR3 in the mid / late rounds – typically we site 4.4 speed / straight line speed as the absolute must based on historical draft traits…
But what if that was more about Russell Wilson being poor at shorter routes and great with the deep ball?
Of course you’d want your receivers to get down the field as quick as possible.
Might Geno (and – I hope – a newly drafted QB) who is taller in the pocket and with shorter routes easier to hit – might that warrant a change of tack here?
Also – you’ve got top end speed at WR1 + 2… is there an argument to get a different kind of weapon at WR3?
Just something I’ve been thinking about in terms of what are some potential historical draft traits of John’s that stand a chance of being moved away from this year.
It kinda feels like the league front offices read all those smokescreen posts and collectively came to the conclusion that ‘yes, this is an elaborate smokescreen to throw us off the trail of them taking Jalen Carter. No need for us to trade up to 3 and help out the Cardinals, we will have our guy at 7 or 8.’
Everyone lost their minds while in lockdown.
The idea that both Stroud and Richardson could both be on the board at 5 seems almost too crazy tk even consider but if they are both there which guy do you take?
Stroud seems more prepared to start but we don’t need a rookie to start year 1. Stroud clearly has the better accuracy and is more polished but Richardson seems like he had far more upside given his size and level of athleticism.
If they are both on the board who do you take?
Richardson for me by the thinnest of margins but would be estatic with either. I think if you draft Stroud though you could move Drew Lock perhaps and have that cap space.
Good question. Richardson physically is so impressive and the potential is so high but I just keep coming back to Stroud’s accuracy. It seems almost unprecedented how spot on his passes are all over the field. Rob has mentioned before it is like he is handing the ball off 40 yards down the field. I think I would lean slightly toward Stroud and his plus accuracy and average to above average mobility to pick up Aaron Rodgers like broken off first down runs.
Dane Brugler over at the Athletic managed to compose what is almost the worst case scenario for the Seahawks.
5. Wilson
20. JSN
37. Hooker
52. Avila
83. Herbig
123. Ojomo
151. Vaughn
154. Coburn
198. Eli Ricks
237. Ventrelle Miller
🤮
Seems to have spent no time considering Seattle’s scheme, trends or preferences either
Sometimes I think these guys do their mocks with the pfn autodraft.
I’ll see your Dane Brugler, and raise you one Ryan Wilson at CBS. It is shockingly bad. Two CBs and 0 DTs in the first four rounds and a lot of players who do not fit our scheme or prototypes at all. You could pick random names from a hat and end up with a better draft than this.
Seahawks
1.5 Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech
1.20 O’Cyrus Torrence, OG, Florida
2.37 Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia
2.52 Tyler Scott, WR, Cincinnati
3.83 Marte Mapu, LB, Sacramento State
4.123 Jarrick Bernard-Converse, CB, LSU
5.151 Viliami Fehoko, DL, San Diego State
5.154 Nick Hampton, EDGE, Appalachian State
6.198 Sean Tucker, RB, Syracuse
7.237 Jahleel Billingsley, TE, Texas
Wow. That is REALLY ugly.
So well up above someone challenged my assertion that if the Seahawks go with Wilson or Witherspoon or another defender not named Anderson at #5, it doesn’t prove that John Schneider has no power within the organization and is nothing more than Pete Carroll’s bobo.
My counter is this: John’s sitting in a position to get a possible franchise QB and outside of Young who will most assuredly be gone, the others all have the traits he’s proven to love at the QB position. So instead they pivot to Tyree Wilson or Witherspoon. Yeah, that doesn’t prove anything.
Yes, yes it does.
Smell the coffee people. It’s fresh brewed this morning.
Wilson would suggest something even worse. The team as a rudderless ship not sure what type of defense it wants to run.
For all the talk about falling in love with Mahomes and Allen, neither one are here in Seattle. I’d love a QB, but honestly I’m not holding my breath. Even after last season, I’ve still been on board with new ownership and them just cleaning house upstairs. It might be worse, but there’s the chance that it will be better, too which is what the new really needs.
Whenever anyone says this, major eye roll.
Yes, bloody Browns not being prepared to trade the #1 pick to Seattle. And for the Chiefs being willing to trade up… 17 spots… to get Mahomes. Imagine if Seattle had done that during Wilson’s peak years.
They didn’t pass on either. They had no shot at them.
KC traded two first round picks and a third for Mahomes. And then parked him for a whole year! The nerve!
Anyone barking about the level of investment in this year’s class demands they start the QB in 2023 has lost all perspective on draft-eligible QBs.
Luke Kuechley on Young’s size.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/panthers-legend-luke-kuechly-drops-truth-bomb-on-concerns-about-bryce-young-s-size/ar-AA19VWbZ?ocid=hplocalnews&cvid=3f6a666b320d416eaa3672c7df76af98&ei=12
As always, now is the time for the great NFL disinformation campaign. So, at this time, we increase our chances of discerning what teams will do not by listening to what they say, but rather by observing what they do and have done. My two cents (which probably isn’t even worth that much) is that…
1. PC/JS have positioned themselves perfectly to draft a QB if their guy(s) slides to them.
2. On the other hand, they have consistently demonstrated love for both Smith & Lock and Smith has won over the locker room.
3. Pete won his SB with a “game manager” QB, a strong running game & a dominating defense.
4. The Hawks need 2-3 more top DL in the worst way and have no salary cap to sign FAs.
5. The Hawks need another top caliber RB. Or two.
6. Pete is always about win now, not rebuilding.
7. It’s a great & deep draft for TEs & we’re paying good money to both Fant & Dissly.
8. Last year’s epic draft was predicated on high character as well as talent & athletic capability.
9. PC/JS tend to trade down for “more bites at the apple”.
Perhaps there are other “facts” that pertain to the draft. Please let me know. Thanks.
Here’s some extra info if you missed:
Corbin Smith seahawks writer broke down all their draft trades up and down.
Nearly all 25 of the trades down won’t worth it.
Nearly all the trade ups have worked.
Commenter Setve Nelson has a great take about more shots in the draft. And I’d love that to be true and it probably is…..just not for this team
Honestly of all the stupid things these two have done I wish John hadn’t been “trader john,” early days…because he sucks at it in the draft.
Almost criminal how some of these ‘draft guides’ and ‘draft experts’ get away with publishing rubbish year after year. When they end up being wrong or off about a player or the draft order, they’ll ‘grade’ the team poorly. There’s rarely a 4-5 year retro or consideration for scheme or team needs/preferences or just poor coaching of a prospective talent.
I do appreciate the ‘redrafts’ that are becoming more popular. Saw one recently that had Lucas and Woolen drafted R1- I think Rob had Lucas R1 and Woolen R2.
Can’t expect people to right about players all the time or know much about smaller schools and guys who only do private workouts. But the draft industry as a whole is becoming big enough where it shouldn’t be difficult for ‘experts’ to do real scouting diligence and journalism. It’s still mostly junk and these types of sins go completely unaccounted for still. Thanks for reading my rant.
Correct
Speaking of QB evaluations how has everyone done in the past? Who are you most proud of that you got right and who were you dead wrong about? I always thought I did a pretty good job with evaluating but looking back on some of my thoughts I’m probably right about average and would’ve gotten fired as GM over some of my picks for sure
Most Proud: Josh Allen, I knew he was going to be a stud and hated Josh Rosen as a prospect that year and I didn’t think very highly of Sam Darnold either, thought he needed to stay in college another year.
Dead Wrong: Patrick Mahomes, never liked hearing the term “gunslinger” because I thought it just meant irresponsible with the football and my gut was he wasn’t going to be a good choice. I really liked Watson that year but thought Trubisky was the safest pick
People who think Jalen Carter is going to be an impact player in his rookie year are so far beyond delusional it hurts my head to even write those words. The snap counts don’t lie.
It was well reported and plainly obvious to anyone with two working eyes that Charles Cross wore down at the end of last season. That is understandable after taking 1,156 snaps — but that is only a small increase from his final NCAA year, where he took 919 snaps.
Jalen Carter took only 392 snaps last year, which was still the highest number of his college career. For comparison, that would have been the 5th most snaps on the Seaahawks defense among IDL — between 35 year old Al Woods (405 snaps in 15 games) and Bryan Mone (271 snaps in 13 games). So even in a dream scenario where Carter magically works his butt off all summer and is able to increase his snap count by 50% in year 1, he still would end up with fewer than 50% of defensive snaps, which would be 4th most of our DTs.
Let’s take this a step further and look at two other 1st round Bulldogs from last year — Jordan Davis and Devonte Wyatt.
Davis, drafted 13th overall, took 378 snaps for Georgia in 2021. In his rookie year for the Eagles, a team with a dreadfully bad run defense who certainly could have used a hulking 340lb plug in the middle of their line, Davis managed only 270 snaps over 16 games including the playoffs. He saw even fewer snaps at NT than 34 year old Linval Joseph. I don’t love PFF grades, but just as a reference point, he received an overall defensive grade of 72.6, and a run defense grade of 72.2 — decent, but a million miles away from Bosa/Watt type rookie numbers.
His fellow Dawg Devonte Wyatt (28th overall pick to Green Bay) saw a bit more action in his final NCAA season, with 423 snaps over 14 games. His rookie season for the Packers saw him take only 224 snaps in 16 games. This put him 5th among their IDLs, with 30 year old Jarran Reed seeing more than triple the amount at 705 snaps. This was also 29% fewer snaps at 3T than career backup Dean Lowry, a guy who has only 19 total sacks in 7 seasons. Again, not that these numbers are gospel, but he received only a 69.9 overall defensive grade from PFF and could not force his way into the lineup for a defense that finished 27th in sacks.
As far as I know, Davis and Wyatt did not have nearly the same level of concern about their conditioning as Carter, and yet the two of them combined took fewer snaps last year than Poona Ford. Maybe Carter will end up being a great player but any assumptions about him being a high-impact rookie are pure fantasy.
when I peruse a lot of hawk fan content, their seems to be this compelling need to tell others that we should trade back, take a defensive lineman and next year we’ll be able to get Caleb. If Caleb is all he’s hyped up to be after next season, it really wouldn’t matter if we offered near an entire draft. When you have qbs who have that sort of hype, Luck & Lawrence, no team will be willing to trade back.
I do not understand fans who believe we are in a Super Bowl window just because the NFC is devoid of talented qbs, and said fans say we should absolutely not consider taking a qb because defensive line is more important. Doesn’t that seem like it should strengthen the argument for taking a talented qb?
I think Jalen Carter to Arizona is a real possibility. Even if it’s a bad fit with the rationale Rob presents here, the Cardinals new front office likely believes in themselves and in their capability in setting up the needed culture for someone like Carter.
I’m not sure why we’d assume they’d back themselves to be able to sort the culture out without making any moves to directly impact that (drafting certain players, avoiding others)
Penny for your thoughts
Round 1, Pick 5 Anthony Richardson QB
Round 1, Pick 20 (Traded to the Bills.)
Round 1, Pick 27 Adetomiwa Adebawore Edge
Round 2, Pick 37 Mazi Smith DT
Round 2, Pick 52 Luke Musgrave Tight End
Round 3, Pick 83 Jaylon Jones CB
Round 3, Pick 91 (Traded from the Bills) Luke Wypler C
Round 4, Pick 123 Tyler Steen OT
Round 5, Pick 151 Parker Washington WR
Round 5, Pick 154 Yaya Digby Edge
Round 6, Pick 198 Juice Scruggs OT
Round 7, Pick 237 Chris Rodgiguez Jr RB