Here we go again…
Earlier today Peter King dedicated a chunk of his latest ‘Football Morning in America‘ article to draft speculation. This included stuff that’s become increasingly common. Bryce Young to the Panthers. Tyree Wilson potentially jumping Will Anderson. Draft Twitter liking Jaxon Smith-Njigba more than teams.
He then came onto everyone’s favourite subject. Jalen Carter and the Seahawks:
Lots of teams look at the fifth slot—Seattle, with Mr. Positive, Pete Carroll, as coach—and automatically think it’s a good shot. It may well be. Detroit, at six, and Chicago and Philly, at nine and 10, also seem to be in play. Who takes the risk on Carter, and who gambles on the potential reward, is going to be one of the big stories of round one.
King then added:
It’s become almost a cliché, how many team officials think the Seahawks will take Carter with the fifth overall pick.
I’ve already had people sending me tweets asking for reaction. My thoughts haven’t changed — and won’t change — based on what other teams think the Seahawks are going to do. I’ll recap why in a bit.
Firstly though, I wanted to highlight King’s 2022 mock draft a year ago — where he had the Seahawks taking Kayvon Thibodeaux after trading down:
*13. Seattle Seahawks: Kayvon Thibodeaux, edge, Oregon
*Projected Trade: Texans trade the 13th pick overall and an early third-round pick, 68th overall, to the Seahawks for the 9th selection.Perfect Pete Carroll pick. Thibodeaux’s an LA kid, he’ll be supremely ticked off at not being the first edge off the board and falling this far, and Carroll knows how to feed into the mental game that fuels players. That, plus Thibodeaux would be the kind of top talent that the Seahawks never get to pick in the draft because they’re always picking at the bottom of the round, or later. Thibodeaux, if he works out, would be a good pick for a team devoid of a top-end pass-rusher, in a division with some serious passing games.
I’d like this pick, in this spot, for Seattle. I’m not alone. “Thibodeaux at 13 would be a coup for Seattle,” one GM told me Sunday when I apprised him of my diabolical plan to send the Oregon edge down the draft board.
Thibodeaux is described as a ‘perfect Pete Carroll pick’ and there’s a quote from a GM praising the fit. Here’s a quote 12 months later from Dave Wyman, co-host of the John Schneider show on 710 Seattle Sports, on Thibodeaux and the Seahawks:
“That was a guy that they just weren’t going to draft. Probably in the second round or at some point. That was just a guy they weren’t very high on”
So a year ago, Thibodeaux was the perfect pick. Ideal Carroll project. But the Seahawks, actually, had no interest. There’s a cautionary tale there.
Here are some anonymous scouting sources courtesy of a report from Bob McGinn discussing Thibodeaux a year ago:
“He’s the best pure pass rusher if he plays hard all the time and acts like he likes football,” said one scout. “Does he like playing in the NFL, or like the NFL lifestyle and what that entails? If you put Hutchinson’s heart in Thibodeaux’s body then you’d have Myles Garrett.”
Described by a fourth scout who interviewed him as “very opinionated, not afraid to speak his mind on what he’s seen in life and his perception of himself and the world.”
I get the sense there’s a narrative among teams and the media that the Seahawks are willing to take a chance on practically anyone. I think this is a mistake.
When the Seahawks drafted Frank Clark — in the late second round, it has to be said, not the top-10 — there was a concerning allegation of domestic violence attached to Clark. The Seahawks claimed they’d done extensive research on Clark and were comfortable taking him.
The thing is, nobody questioned Clark’s football character, passion for the game or work ethic. Was he a character concern? Yes, absolutely. But he was also a competitor and as we know, that is integral for Carroll.
Look at other players who were interesting characters, difficult personalities, outspoken, had baggage or an interesting background. Bruce Irvin, Marshawn Lynch, Richard Sherman. There are others. They were all 100% heart-and-soul types when it came to football.
Carroll could live with the challenge of coaching Lynch because when game-time came around, you knew you’d get every sinew from him.
I suspect the reason they were reportedly against drafting Thibodeaux is for the reasons mentioned above, that were widely reported at the time. Does he love the game? Are you going to get everything from him?
It certainly wasn’t a talent issue. So there had to be a reason and this is the information we have to work with.
There are similar questions lingering over Jalen Carter. From the reported poor practise habits, the way he hasn’t taken to coaching, the poor conditioning hinting at a questionable work ethic and application to his career, the feeling that he basically did what he wanted at Georgia in terms of attending meetings and workouts and the pattern of mistake-making that led to legal trouble.
Here’s what McGinn’s sources say about Carter:
“Doesn’t play hard like (Devante) Wyatt. That dude gave it his all. Carter’s motor runs hot and cold. He’s disruptive, but not overly productive. He’s a worrier for me. A lot of these Georgia dudes aren’t as good individually as they were as a whole. Travon Walker. They all were overrated because of how dominant that D was.”
“Best player in the draft but he’s lazy,” a third scout said. “They put him on the treadmill damn near every day. He doesn’t love football, doesn’t love the weight room. Horrible family background. Not a leader. He’s phenomenally talented. He’s going to run like a deer. He’s the epitome of star or bust.”
This is why I’ve been so confident in suggesting the Seahawks won’t take Carter. He is immensely talented, as is Thibodeaux. Yet I don’t think either are ‘Carroll guys’ as King and his sources imply. I think Carroll is always willing to give anyone a second, third or maybe even fourth chance. But you’ve got to fit the ‘always compete’ mantra. Based on what we’re hearing with Carter, as we heard from Thibodeaux, I don’t think there’s a match.
Look who they had in for a visit last week. Devon Witherspoon. A player who has had to clamber up from the JUCO routes and ‘no star’ recruiting status, has played a ton of snaps and shown rapid improvement for Illinois and when he gets on the field — despite being a smaller cornerback — he wants to hit you in the face and knock you on your arse.
That’s a Carroll guy. And if Witherspoon had a few quirky personality traits (I don’t know if he does or not) I doubt they’d take him off the board. His love for the game, his commitment to it and the way he plays is perfect for Seattle’s preferences.
I see that same approach from Will Anderson and the quarterbacks. Thus, I think at #5 there will be ample alternatives to Carter.
Someone will take Carter, just as someone was willing to take Thibodeaux early. I just don’t think it’ll be Seattle.
For the avoidance of any doubt my position remains the same as it’s been for several weeks. I think Will Anderson is probably their ideal pick at #5. If he’s off the board, I think there’s a very realistic chance they’ll take Anthony Richardson instead. C.J. Stroud potentially falling is something I need to spend some time thinking about. I think Will Levis is locked into the Colts at #4 and I don’t think the Seahawks will take Jalen Carter. If I’m wrong about Carter, I’ll own it.
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Nothing Peter King says changes the board. However he did echo your last mock and the “perfect” spot for Carter being Pittsburgh.
Or Philadelphia.
Or Chicago Bears, they have screwed up the draft so many times that it doesn’t matter if they take Carter.
Well it’s looking like a QB for the Colts…
Irsay declared,
“For the ’23 draft, we have many options. With the #4 pick, we could stay put and take a QB—-or trade up and take a QB—-OR trade down and MAYBE take a QB—-Or NOT🙂
All options on the table, but we like our position and are very excited. Fire up! 🏈”
As for Seattle, if Stroud indeed is an option – I hope they sprint to the podium.
It was already looking like a quarterback for the Colts; Irsay’s babbling tweet is meaningless.
Honestly next Thursday can’t get here fast enough, this part of the draft season is the worst. I feel like All the pundits are just trying to make a statement so if it comes true they look smart.
Also rob, has anyone questioned Muphys love for football? With his great pro day results do you think he would be an option around 20 now?
https://seahawksdraftblog.com/wp-content/uploads/Screenshot-2023-04-15-at-00.43.16.png
What do we think “He’s going to run like a deer” mean?
I can read it a few ways but what does it mean in scouting-ese…
PS. Rob – I really wish you’d get off the fence with this Carter issue. Man, you must be getting splinters.
That confused me as well. I re-read it multiple times and still can’t figure out what he’s talking about. A running deer is one of the last animals I’d comp Jalen Carter to.
Maybe its referencing how quickly he moves when the dinner bell is rung!
It’s a stock scouting phrase as far as I can see from a quick bit of Googling, and seems to imply ‘can run all day’.
How that aligns with ‘his motor runs hot and cold’ is beyond me. Seems a direct contradiction.
Maybe an asthmatic deer?
lol
He’s gonna run like a John Deere riding mower.
It’s such a weird statement. I think it was just a pre-combine quote with the expectation that he’d run a great 40 yard dash at his size. There are moments on tape where he is running and looks real good for his size. I suspect he would have had a great split time if he’d been moderately in shape and ran the 40. The talent isn’t the issue!
“What do we think ‘He’s going to run like a deer’ mean?” –London Seahawk
http://worth1000.s3.amazonaws.com/submissions/543500/543736_5184_1024x2000.jpg
It was interesting listening to the John Schneider podcast (710 AM Seattle – archived on site) from last week. He was asked about visits from potential draftees this year and related a recent story where he was blown off by a visiting college player after the young man’s workouts. Obviously, the player didnt do his homework identifying coaches and GM faces, names, etc. before the interaction. Later, when Schneider addressed the visiting group as the GM, John could notice the depressed eye roll from the player. Not a good first impression. Who prepares these young men?
Straight out of Top Gun…Top Guns
I just commented this on the previous post, but I’ll share it again here since it’s relevant to the discussion:
People who think Jalen Carter is going to be an impact player in his rookie year are so far beyond delusional it hurts my head to even write those words. The snap counts don’t lie.
It was well reported and plainly obvious to anyone with two working eyes that Charles Cross wore down at the end of last season. That is understandable after taking 1,156 snaps — but that is only a small increase from his final NCAA year, where he took 919 snaps.
Jalen Carter took only 392 snaps last year, which was still the highest number of his college career. For comparison, that would have been the 5th most snaps on the Seaahawks defense among IDL — between 35 year old Al Woods (405 snaps in 15 games) and Bryan Mone (271 snaps in 13 games). So even in a dream scenario where Carter magically works his butt off all summer and is able to increase his snap count by 50% in year 1, he still would end up with fewer than 50% of defensive snaps, which would be 4th most of our DTs.
Let’s take this a step further and look at two other 1st round Bulldogs from last year — Jordan Davis and Devonte Wyatt.
Davis, drafted 13th overall, took 378 snaps for Georgia in 2021. In his rookie year for the Eagles, a team with a dreadfully bad run defense who certainly could have used a hulking 340lb plug in the middle of their line, Davis managed only 270 snaps over 16 games including the playoffs. He saw even fewer snaps at NT than 34 year old Linval Joseph. I don’t love PFF grades, but just as a reference point, he received an overall defensive grade of 72.6, and a run defense grade of 72.2 — decent, but a million miles away from Bosa/Watt type rookie numbers.
His fellow Dawg Devonte Wyatt (28th overall pick to Green Bay) saw a bit more action in his final NCAA season, with 423 snaps over 14 games. His rookie season for the Packers saw him take only 224 snaps in 16 games. This put him 5th among their IDLs, with 30 year old Jarran Reed seeing more than triple the amount at 705 snaps. This was also 29% fewer snaps at 3T than career backup Dean Lowry, a guy who has only 19 total sacks in 7 seasons. Again, not that these numbers are gospel, but he received only a 69.9 overall defensive grade from PFF and could not force his way into the lineup for a defense that finished 27th in sacks.
As far as I know, Davis and Wyatt did not have nearly the same level of concern about their conditioning as Carter, and yet the two of them combined took fewer snaps last year than Poona Ford. Maybe Carter will end up being a great player but any assumptions about him being a high-impact rookie are pure fantasy.
Really…?
We’re both going to write a thesis about snap counts and then post at the exact minute😀
Ha! Great minds, I suppose. Nice to see many of us are on the same page!
Great post. You too just below Peter. Great minds indeed.
What is a typical top-end snap count for college interior DLs? I can’t find them anywhere. I looked up Kancey for comparison and he was at 454 last year (11 games) after 577 the prior year (14 games).
Yeah it’s a pain, I don’t think any site has NCAA snap counts for free. I subscribed to PFF just for this month so happy to share any specifics you’re looking for. Here is a random sample of a few IDL options:
Calijah Kancey: 454
Mazi Smith: 632
Byron Young (AL): 548
Keeanu Benton: 428
Jaquelin Roy: 675
Zacch Pickens: 605
Jerrod Clark: 525
Keondre Coburn: 413
Siaka Ika: 415
Cameron Young: 598
Gervon Dexter: 682
nfldraftbuzz.com will show snaps –per season– a well as performance stats for most players. Their individual evaluations seem reasonably well done as well. Their rankings are perhaps questionable, but otherwise a pretty good site that I visit often.
nfldraftbuzz.com Example: THEIR TOP 4 DL IN THE COMING DRAFT.
Jalen Carter: 2020-287-snaps, 2021-396-snaps, 2022-308-snaps. 991-total –ranked as DL#1
Miles Murphy: 2020-423-snaps, 2021-552-snaps, 2022-586-snaps. 1561 total –ranked as DL#2.
Bryan Bresee: 2020-430-snaps, 2021-152-snaps(injury), 2022: 302-snaps 884-total –ranked as DL#3
Calijah Kancey: 2020-398-snaps, 2021-577-snaps, 2022-454-snaps 1429-total–ranked as DL#4
Both Carter & Bresee seem to be the oddball guys here. Murphy & Kancey would seem to have the more normal workload of a starting DL.
Short arms be damned.
I’m kind of getting back on the old adage:
The best ability is availibility.
Thanks
Just to pile on with this particular subject:
The Seahawks are the #31 defense in snaps faced the last 5 seasons. Only the Jets have faced more snaps, and the Jets made proper progress in 2022.
They have faced 410 more snaps than the best team in the NFL.
So the Seahawk defense has played, on average two full extra games of snaps every single season than the best team in the NFL.
How did they do against the NFL average? One full extra game of snaps every single season.
That is absolutely brutal.
Carter would be toast by the end of October.
He would be gone, cut or traded, by then. PC will work with difficult personalities, but not with a DOG who won’t get in shape. Reference LenDale White.
Great points. Can you imagine Carter on one of those famous, 9 minute, 15-play drives we so dearly love to give up on defense? He would be so easy to neutralize just by going no-huddle and keeping him on the field.
Scary thought
Awesome post, GH.
I’d like to officially thank Breer, King, and the laziest sports radio at 710 that has ever existed for keeping the hearts and minds of seahawks nation forever fascinated by Jalen Carter.
Special thanks as well to the seemingly infinite YouTubers for banging this drum.
Seattle literally needs around three Dlinemen ( regardless of technical positioning: DE, NT, etc) to field a roster come September.
The Jalen Carter generational talent, second coming of Tez/sapp/white/Donald energy has legitimately put me off the guy.
The number one, full stop, no equivocation needed reason why I don’t want Carter on the team….
He straight up is not on the field at this time enough to justify the pick. I really don’t care if he’s LITERALLY the best player in the draft.
Our Seattle seahawks need snap eaters. Quinnen Williams last year was at 65% of snaps. That’s over a 17 game season.
How does the Carter faithful square how you justify a top 5 pick on a guy playing sub 50% of snaps in a college championship season that is in whole less than a regular nfl season?
Where does the impact cone from? How is the dline improved improved year one, two, or even three years in until he’s ever on the field playing enough snaps to matter?
Just look at Qjeff or Dunlap before. Players that fairly comfortably get around 5 sacks and some TFL’s. Playing very limited snap counts. Great. But has having either player on the roster changed one iota of the fortunes of Seattle?
I can easily see Carter getting 3.5-4.5 sacks next year. Say 8 TFLs. On 40% of snaps. How does that do a damn thing for Seattle?
“How does the Carter faithful square how you justify a top 5 pick on a guy playing sub 50% of snaps…?”
As I’ve observed, the majority of the Carter faithful have not considered the snap count issue at all, and the minority of the Carter faithful who have considered the snap count issue are content to brush it aside with a cursory ‘Georgia rotates lots of guys’ dismissal. They also excuse away Carter’s conditioning issue, typically offering up some affirmation along the lines of ‘Just get him into an NFL training program and he’ll be fine.’ It’s about as stable as the Bobby the Diaper Man platform.
“he basically did what he wanted at Georgia in terms of attending meetings and workouts”
Are some folks thinking he is just going to turn it on once he gets to the NFL, especially after being rewarded with a large contract?
AL-
Haven’t you heard? Sherman and Diggs nominated grown man, all pro, possibly future HOF candidate, who built himself from Utah St. Out of position OLB to star MLB through natural gifts and a boatload of hardwork…..as Carters personal valet.
I’d say nanny. But valet seems more dignified.
Sherman of course is too busy with his zero edit ,zero script podcast and Thursday night football….and Diggs is too busy dodging contract questions so the team can afford like a 1 mil a year NT. Otherwise they both could ptobably….let just don’t have the time.
I’m guessing Sherman and Diggs never bothered to ask Bobby what he thought on the matter.
Sherman’s act has grown utterly stale (and this from a guy who thinks he should be a first ballot inductee) and Diggs’ is fast approaching the same territory.
That’d take one helluva valet to keep Jalen Carter on the rails—I’m not even sure Jeeves would be up to the task.
Everyone knows, when you’re guaranteed $30m, you can just buy a work ethic
And not just any old off the shelf work ethic, but a truly bespoke one befitting a millionaire.
We’ve been discussing it here a bit, but Witherspoon could be a darkhorse pick at #5 for the reasons Rob mentioned in his post. If Anderson and the QBs you covet are gone, he makes more sense than Wilson or Carter.
The argument would be that if Witherspoon’s your BPA at #5, you’re better off trading back later in the top 10 and taking him there. Problem is, I could easily see him going to DET at #6. He fits a need for them and is exactly the type of player Dan Campbell would want to set the tone for the culture he is building there.
So what if we trade back to #7 with Oakland, they take a QB, and DET takes Witherspoon? Now you’re staring and Carter and WIlson again and likely desperately looking to trade back further. Not a scenario I would like to see unfold.
If they love Witherspoon (or anybody else) enough at number 5 to the point where they would be upset to miss out on him, they should just take him. The only reason to trade down would be if you have multiple players graded very closely.
Precisely, which is why I’ve become convinced that if things fell just so, Witherspoon could be the pick. It would be weird and very out of character for Seattle, but it’s not the crazy notion I originally considered it to be.
I dont think he is a dark horse pick st 5 but he could be a pick if they ended up trading back.
It would be a shock. Yet at some point earlier in the off-season (can’t remember the context) Pete specifically mentioned that their trend of waiting on CB didn’t mean that they wouldn’t take one early. It’s possible, though I think that Richardson or Anderson is still the most likely pick.
Don’t disagree. The odds of this happening are extremely low – but it could happen if Anderson and Richardson and all but 1 QB go 1-4 and Seattle is not high on the QB left standing. My bet is they have their preferences but will happily take any of the 4 QBs if Anderson is off the board. But, if that is incorrect and the QB left standing is not one they are willing to draft, the logical move in that case is to trade back with a team desperate for one of these QBs,
Depending upon who that is and how far back you go, you’re very likely to miss out on Witherspoon. I am guessing that he and Bijan are higher on our board than most people would expect.
Brady Henderson stepped in for Brock’s Blue 42 segment today, and he asserted that the Seahawks’ history of taking corners in the third round or later has been “circumstantial”. To me, a thirteen-draft span of doing it one way—largely successfully—seems more reflective of philosophy than of circumstance. I’m not even sure how needy the team is at the corner spot, anyway, if Coby Bryant is heading outside. The Hawks could pick up some good competition for Bryant in their usual draft range, I would think, especially in a respectably deep corner draft like this year’s.
As shared by Mat Smith of 104.3 The Fan on Twitter, Russell Wilson got himself into a bit of a scary situation that definitely posed an injury risk this week when he flipped a golf cart into the bunker while he was golfing this weekend.
“Confirmed via sources that this is TRUE. Russell Wilson flipped a golf cart into a bunker at Arrowhead Golf Course yesterday. No one was hurt. All is well. The guess here is he didn’t see the bunker while looking for his ball and went right in,” Smith said in a tweet on Monday
Things just are going well for Russ after the trade,
And how is this any different than what happened with Malik, case and point, shit happens, don’t do anything overly stupid (like enter an mma fight or go Free Soloing – but I mean, how many players have been in car accidents, been at the wrong place at the wrong time and gotten shot or hurt, shit happens.
They guys I have an issue with are the Ray Rice type guys or the lazy entitled guys.
What?!
McDowell was speeding on a ATV WITHOUT a helmet, and brain damaged himself. Not anything remotely like slow-mo rolling a golf cart on accident. I think it’s a good bet McDdowell was drinking too–but I’d be willing to bet Wilson was sober.
Then McDowell kept screwing up, getting caught trying to hide a stolen vehicle he supposedly bought, and THEN he lost his job with the Browns for worse. Look it up.
McDowell is the epitome of a lazy entitled guy. Only worse, because now he’s brain damaged and acting like it.
You’re also missing this incident (from Wikipedia): On January 17, 2022, McDowell was arrested in Deerfield Beach, Florida, and charged with public exposure, assaulting a police officer, and resisting arrest, after police received a call about a man walking naked on the property of a learning center for children.[39][40][41][42] The Cleveland Browns released a statement indicating they were investigating the matter.[43]
Glor, your scattered argument falls somewhere between unintelligible and unintelligent. Hopefully, it’s just a failed attempt at irony.
lol, damn I think my brain has a serious case of revisionist history, I must have blocked all this crap out.. I stand corrected good sirs lol
Apology accepted 😆
You are not wrong Rob you haven’t been all along. Your ligic on this has been spot on all along. I just want to see what the “we’re gonna draft Carter” people say when he is not drafted and I especially want to see what they’re going to say 2 years from now when hes a bust.
And if I’m wrong I’ll own it, 100%
If you are wrong, who the heck cares, everyone is wrong all the dang time when it comes to the draft. GM’s and teams included.
Exactly. If Rob’s wrong, it means the Seahawks did a 180 from the approach they keep gushing about working so well last year. Or that it was just a smokescreen. No need to apologize for not assuming they were lying all along about what worked so well last year.
Yep, I’m tired of the Jalen Carter talk, but very well laid out argument. Seattle (like all teams) is willing to live with some off the field transgressions (see Geno and Reed signings). Concerns about a player’s ability to show up and be professional and competitive? Not so much. His top 30 visit would have to have been the world’s greatest sales job for them to be convinced he is a fit.
I think it’s more likely they had him in so if he burns out and gets cut within 2-3 years by the organization that drafts him, they’ll have an idea of whether it’s even worth it to take him on as a reclamation project.
Great point – that could certainly be a consideration as well.
Or if he falls to 20, which could happen.
Got it.
Seahawks take AR at 5 and JC at 20.
Press Conference opening line: “Do I really look like a guy with a plan? You know what I am? I’m a dog chasing cars. I wouldn’t know what to do with one if I caught it! You know, I just… *do* things.”
I’d be ok with the flyer at 20 if we get one of the 4 at 5 😁
Agree with all of this.
It would have been straight malpractice not for them to have him in for a visit. I’d have been upset if they didn’t do their full due diligence on the guy. But that doesn’t make it likely they’ll take him at 5.
There are all kinds of reasons to talk to him. He’s might be the most talented guy in the draft and it’s worth at least getting to know him. If not for your own board, to get a better sense of where he might get picked, for the future if he gets cut (a la Robert Nkemdiche), or so they get a better understanding of their own processes future drafts if Carter either ends up failing or succeeding (either way it’s a great data point on a guy like this). He’s a fascinating case (even if I’m sick to death of discussing him like everybody else).
“His top 30 visit would have to have been the world’s greatest sales job…” –PT
Rob Rang said that NFL teams commonly send undercover personnel to the airport to study how prospects interact with people prior to meeting any team liaison. Spying is creepy—yet informative.
Great stuff and I agree completely about Carter. In the PC/ JS era I can only think of 2 players where they took a chance on a guy who had questions about their passion and love of the game.
Malik McDowell and Percy Harvin.
Both were complete and utter failures. If the Hawks were to repeat this mistake again and draft Carter despite these well known issues I would have serious questions about thier leadership going forward.
For all the talks from Pete about compete forever and love of football is BS if they draft Carter in 1st round.
I don’t know about this, I don’t know if either of those guys had passion or love issues. They had “Me” issues – IE Percy, and then for Malik, I mean look, shit happens, the dude has probably been riding quads his whole life and down in that area of the country, it’s what you do. Was it dumb to put yourself into a position that you could hurt yourself? Sure, but also, you aren’t going to wrap yourself in a bubble, what happened to him was a total freak accident, it isn’t like he wanted to break his neck the odds of that happening were probably the same as driving to the store and getting hit by a garbage truck. I would consider what he was doing probably safer than playing basketball (which a lot of players do, and a lot get hurt doing).
McDowell definitely had motivation issues, it was one of the biggest things against him leading up into the draft.
Gotcha, I think I have blocked most of that from my mind at this point!
Production doesn’t match up with the traits and the talent
Scouts concerned about work ethic and leadership
“He has a chance to be a dominant player in our league. I mean dominant……He’s just a little lazy and I worry about whether he is going to be a self-starter.”
With Malik, it wasn’t about an accident that could’ve happened to anyone. It was about the questions about his motivation, work ethic consistency (obfuscated by some injuries his last year at Michigan State). AND, it was about his head scratching interviews at the combine and otherwise. Responses that left you saying “there is something missing with this guy.” Same thing with Jalen… questions about his motivation, work ethic and consistency. Interviews about his conditioning where he mentioned having run a bit more the previous week… whaaaa?!
Not saying that they’re the same person, or that the accident wasn’t an accident. But am saying that decision making is similarly questionable (see drag racing leaving one dead and another injured) and issues are similar.
Whiffing on McDowell in the 2nd round, not only left us with a hole that year, but necessitated a “save” by John with the failed trade for Sheldon Richardson. Not only was Richardson a whiff on top of a whiff, it also cost us Jermaine Kearse and the 49th pick in 2018 (Dallas Godert – Philly). The failure on McDowell put us in DL hole that we are STILL trying to dig out.
Failing in the second round is costly. Failing at #5 will be much costlier.
“With Malik, it wasn’t about an accident that could’ve happened to anyone…” –StevenD
I really like your post, and I agree with your main assertion. However, I do take issue with the “could’ve happened to anyone” part, because I’m convinced that Malik McDowell wasn’t just doing the normal type of ATV riding that law-abiding people engage in—which is already dangerous enough as it is—but rather was participating in an illegal and extremely hazardous type of ATV riding common in certain urban areas.
I can’t prove it, but I’m convinced of it.
One can say, ‘Who cares? All ATV riding is the same. It’s all equally dangerous and equally reflective of poor judgment either way…’, but that leads to the assumption that I’ve heard hundreds of times on the radio and on YouTube ever since: that the incident was unlucky—a fluke. I just heard it again a couple days ago on the Hawks Nest. Well, I don’t’ believe the McDowell crash was a fluke at all. I believe it was inevitable…
…Shortly after the Hawks picked McDowell, I visited a Michigan State forum several times (I think it was the Lansing State Journal one, but I can’t remember for sure), just to get as much info on the player as I could. As with any such forum, you can wade through the rubbish and gather the insider’s perspective; there were some posters who really put out some quality content, and some claimed to know the players personally. (I, too, sat in classrooms with future NFLers at my school, and I learned a lot about them by the way they behaved and interacted with others; one of them went #3 overall and—to my complete lack of surprise—was a spectacular bust.) Don’t get me wrong: I was fired up about the McDowell selection. He killed it at his first OTA, and I assumed Carroll’s culture would get him right. But one thing that struck me in the Spartan forum were the references to McDowell being a known “Bike Life” participant…
…And then the crash happened.
Now, as one who has crashed an ATV himself, I can tell you that riding those things in a regular OHV area is plenty risky enough; wrecking one definitely could “happen to anyone”. But scoffing the law and endangering innocent drivers and bystanders by roving through the inner city in large numbers while doing stunts with no protective gear whatsoever? That’s a whole different level of risk. Crashes are far more common when stunt-riding (duh), and injuries are far more severe when not wearing protective gear (again, duh). A Bike Life crash couldn’t just happen to anyone, and it’s not simply the result of bad judgment leading to an unlucky outcome (as the mainstream Seattle sports media has uniformly held McDowell’s crash to be). A Bike Life crash is a bad guy receiving a necessary lesson.
But McDowell’s alleged Bike Life involvement was never even investigated by the Seattle media, and I can see why the team wouldn’t want that detail getting out: talk about egg on the face. It was already an embarrassment as it was, and a player’s health was at stake; whether he had been riding lawfully in an OHV area or unlawfully outside an OHV area was never raised as a relevant detail. I couldn’t find any police reports on the incident at all, but I know which story I believe, and my point is that the difference does matter. The Hawks rolled the dice on a bad guy and got the exact outcome they earned.
Ya I think I either forgot about the no helmet stuff etc or just was so bummed at the time I checked out on the news. So I stand corrected on him for sure!
We agree – it wasn’t just an accident. It was a result of a pattern of bad decisions. And, that’s the point, right?
The other guy that comes to mind is Christian Michael. Remember that guy? Another quick twitch savant. Noted as the twitchiest in his draft class and on the team at the time. And, he was unfortunately one taco short of a combination plate as they say back home. John Ursua, not as twitchy, but may have had some of the same challenges.
With Carter not sure if its a wonderlic issue, character, work ethic or a combination of all three, but there’s plenty of smoke.
Hoping we invest our $30M otherwise after doing plenty of due diligence.
Oh, I remember Christine Michael—yet another stellar selection from the vaunted 2013 draft. You know, when a guy’s vertical jump exceeds his IQ, maybe a team should just go ahead and take him off the board, even if he is just a running back. I’d like to say John Schneider learned his lesson from that pick, but he went right back to the poisoned well four years later with McDowell. …Perhaps by now, then?
Sorry but I know two families that have lost their kids to hot rodding on quads. I won’t call it an accident as they were jumping the quads and roaring around at high speeds.
Lets not forget Rothlisberger’s lost season after his motorcycle accident. Some activities are inherently more risky. and in the case of an accident should void any long term pay contracts.
I believe it’s common for teams to include potential penalties in player contracts for doing certain activities. Someone else might know more it’s just something that I thought I’d heard before, but you mentioned basketball and I think teams have asked or even tried to enforce no basketball rules in the past. Of course we just saw DK doing insane things on the court so maybe I’m wrong.
Wow, Jalen Hurts getting 5/255.
That feels like a lot of money after what is, essentially, one good season. Shows again the value of having a QB on a rookie deal…
Exactly. $51 million APY? Give me a rookie now!
Only $110m guaranteed at signing.
Lamar Jackson can go suck a lemon.
Never look at the “total” numbers on an NFL contract, look only at the guaranteed money. That’s the truth of the money. Is the $110 for 4 years with a 5th year option?
No full details yet.
But he gets a no-trade clause.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RIGUu0bvpMQ&pp=ygUVU2ltcHNvbnMgc3VjayBhIGxlbW9u
I’m seeing almost $180M in guarantees.
“His deal includes $179.304 million in guarantees, along with a no-trade clause. ”
https://twitter.com/TomPelissero/status/1647978236692033537?s=20
Maybe the “at signing” is the differentiator, with some fully guaranteed money that hits later?
By the way love how you have taken an opinion on this one Rob. No hedging and wishy washy analysis. Just saying it like it is not how we wished it was and that’s what I love about this blog. You deal in reality not fantasy land.
For the 12 D chess crowd.
If your plan was to take a QB at five, wouldn’t it be in your best interest to convince the larger media as well as the NFL at large, that you were dead set on taking a defensive player?
By suggesting that you’re solely interested in Carter, Anderson, Wilson & heck, a cornerback; you simultaneously diminished the trade value for Arizona, and completely shielded which QB you may favor.
it is actually what I would do in their situation, along with leaking some stories about not wanting to trade down because I was in love with Anderson/Carter and assume one or both will be available.
Makes perfect sense to me. This is a poker game. Everybody is lying about the strength of their hand. Why would anyone place their cards face up by leaking who they are targeting to sportswriters? Unless it’s to misdirect.
Everything is a smokescreen!
Hooker at 5! They’re not even talking about him and didn’t go to his pro day!
Longer this process goes on I wonder if the plan Is to draft our defensive star @ 5 and then trade back into the top 10 to catch a slipping Richardson. The capital Is there, I could absolutely see AR slipping like fields did.
Just depends on what happens at 2 and 3 – if as some mocks are now playing around with, Anderson and a CB go 2 and 3 – then there is a good chance we could trade back a few spots and still land one of the QB’s during the potential run on CB’s
I’ve thought about that too, but I don’t think it will happen for 2 reasons:
1. If Richardson were to slip down past 5, that would mean that the top rushers probably went earlier. So the defensive player we would be taking would presumably be Witherspoon.
2. To trade up from #20 is going to take some serious draft capital (probably #37 and 2024 R1), and you risk losing out to another team’s offer or to another QB-needy team that decides they simply want to pick him and won’t trade with you. Is that really worth risking losing out on your QBotF for an undersized CB? (who I do really like, btw)
I guess if Wilson were to go at #2 and someone traded up to #3 for Stroud, leaving us Will Anderson at #5, they could try to pull off getting both Anderson and Richardson. That would be a night to remember, but also nerve-racking to the extreme!
Too much interest in Richardson to risk it if Seattle wants him, IMO.
He’s already visited Vegas as well. Too many interested teams lurking after #5…
Which is why the talk last week about Richardson slipping to the back of R1 was absolute bollocks
Seriously, the professional pundits pushing that should take a long, hard look in the mirror and ask if this is the right subject matter for them to cover.
Yep, there is too much confusion and muddled information to count on any of these guys falling. If you have the QBs graded somewhat evenly then go ahead and take the value of whoever falls. But if you have Richardson as your clear target you had better move up to make sure you get him.
Seahawks just need to bite the damn bullet and move up already.
I think the opposite is more likely. QB at 5 and they will be lurking in the weeds waiting to see who falls.
Agree with you. Most likely Will Anderson will be gone and one of the top four QBs will be there. No loss of other trade capital so why trade up?
Also, Per the trade chart, you should be able to move from 20 to 10 with 37
“Best player in the draft but he’s lazy,” a third scout said.
That right there is enough for me. Maybe late first or high second as admittedly we have burned plenty of low first rounders on crap sandwiches over the years. If they take him, then as Rob said, we will watch the highlights, get excited and hope and pray that this process or something in his life causes him to flip a switch, but I just don’t think that when you have a pick this high, first time in Carol’s tenure, that you spend it on a player that you KNOW has motivation issues. Taking a flyer on someone like AR, who loves the game, who is fighting everyday to get somewhere, to me that is just different. For all our qualms about RW, one thing I’ll never take away from that guy is that he is a worker, and when he wasn’t working, he was at childrens hospital – (fine, this was work as well with regards to his brand and image) – but point being, I don’t think RW is super caught up on all the netflix shows or latest call of duty expansion, the guy lives and breaths work – that is someone that if they do fail, it was a fair shot to take. Hence why I’m all in on our hopes of either one of the 4 QB’s or a top defender (other than Carter)
That’s an oxymoron. Can’t be both.
Apology accepted. I’m bored as heck with this. Sorry you’ve been compelled to address it… yet again.
I feel like this is simultaneously the part of draft season where a) the media finally starts to align with the league’s evaluation in general because draft boards are being finished and sources start talking and b) we (and some teams even) start over-thinking everything.
With regards to over-thinking: yes, I’m pretty sure PC/JS would love to have Will Anderson to reset their defensive and team culture. Who wouldn’t? But I also remember:
– what seems like every single year when JS talks about how he should have drafted a QB every year but it just didn’t come together, etc. Ok, understandably hard to do when you have a SB-champion, franchise QB under contract. But now…?
– the pitch they must have made to Jody Allen to get her to sign off on trading Russ and lending them her private jet for a week to visit the QB pro days. They had to have presented a succession plan that included next year’s QB class. (Geno’s nice first half doesn’t change that)
– The selfies sent (IMO) to prepare fans for the excitement of drafting the next franchise QB. This should be celebrated, exciting for fans!
– Geno’s contract being set up perfectly for an understudy/successor and them having even said they talked with him about the possibility of drafting a QB.
– The miracle of a top 5 pick falling into our laps in a year with 4 good QB prospects when we haven’t picked in this range in over a decade. The original plan probably involved packaging several R1 picks. Now we don’t have to.
I really hope PC/JS don’t overthink this. And I don’t think we have to either: they are highly likely drafting a QB. And if somehow they are all gone by our pick, which day by day seems less likely, Will Anderson is a heck of a consolation prize.
I think that’s what people are forgetting after a better than anticipated season. J Allen only signed off on trading the franchise’s most valuable resource because a plan was pitched to replace him. If Lock had started and had the season Geno did maybe they would be reconsidering the plan, but Allen has to view this like the company it is. A company is looking at its assets and resources several years out and not necessarily just chasing the wins this year like fans and even coaches to a degree.
i also think when js dropped the little nugget on wyman and bob that he and pete weren’t put off by the fans being uoset by a draft pick was another hint towards taking a qb
“I really hope PC/JS don’t overthink this.”
Agreed – they try to get too clever for their own good.
I get the shotgun approach at the lower levels of the draft, but you don’t need to be cute in rounds 1 and 2.
That’s OK Rob, there’s not much else to talk about in the off-season anyways. Cheers!
I strongly suspect Team Go For Jalen Carter and Team Geno Is A Franchise QB have a lot of the same dues-paying members.
Correct, that’s their whole premise: “Why would we need a QB when we have 32 year-old, half-season wonder Geno ‘I ain’t write back’ Smith??”
It’s feels lazy is all. That’s what’s must frustrating.
They set it up that way so there is only one membership card and one annual due to pay.
They should set up an annual convention co hosted by running backs anonymous.
The key note speech should be on the topic of how its better to be right on Twitter and only draft certain players at certain positions vs. Actually drafting talent for your team.
I wonder how many of these analysts will actually have Carter to hawks @ 5 when it comes time to submit mocks for grading purposes. It’s all fun and games to post a mock and get the clicks, but it seems that’s where you earn credibility amongst the draft (non-Good Morning Football daily) community.
For your sake Rob, I hope it is a to of them because I can’t disagree with your sentiment.
I get really frustrated with all of the handwringing over the gamble at QBs who aren’t ready, or how you can’t take a top 5 pick for these QBs that aren’t a lock, but then everyone says take Carter.
Again, the poor decision making with the speeding and the accident is tough.
But more concerning for me is the consistent reports of him not being in shape, or not being able to finish games strong.
People act like taking a QB is too great of a risk, but Carter is a lock.
Talk about Richardson missing layups, but don’t talk about Carter’s lack of production.
Sign me up for whatever QB is there or Anderson all the way.
I’m with you Rob!
Rob, not sure who you host this site with, but I have been seeing some really weird behavior for a while now. I kept thinking that maybe you took the site down often for updates but I’ve just discovered this isn’t the case.
What is happening is when I go to the site on my phone (ATT is my provider) the site randomly will not respond, for hours at a time. However what I just figured out is that if I turn on my vpn app on my phone, site comes right up. So something is happening where the site is blocking connections from ATT randomly.
That’s weird. I’ve not had that feedback from anyone else.
This is happening to me also, it’s kind of weird because iphone does not work, but my Android phone works.
Let me know if it persists
I have the same issue Rob, if I try to visit the site while using cellular data I cannot open the site but if I use WiFi I have zero issue getting here
You guys should try out a vpn – I just happened to have just turned NordVPN off on my phone as I was browsing a US site while in Canada, and when I turned it off, all of the sudden the site didn’t work any longer, turned it back on, and worked fine. Also, Yes, I never seem to have issues when on Wifi either.. just iphone cellular connections, really weird.
Same for me, sometimes I need to load the site like 3 or 4 times, then it works. But only on my iPhone (cellular and WiFi), never had any issues on my windows PC
Access the site through WiFi and T-Mobile using safari or Firefox, never any issues
Verizon and Wi-Fi with safari has been working fine, computer with chrome is fine too.
Since this is the tech help…
How do you put text in quotes on here? Like with tweets?
I’m putting it below with spaces, but take out the spaces when you actually want to use it
Put your quote here
Darn that didn’t work. Let’s try this…
Put the word blockquote between then put your quote then put /blockquote between
Ok this is getting silly. Basically you put “blockquote” between the two carrots (or greater than / less than) then “/blockquote” between them again after the quote.
Ha! Thank you!!
Iphone or android? I’m iphone on ATT
and I should note, I don’t recall ever having the issue before I moved to ATT
I have Verizon and use Chrome, Safari and Brave and have had no issues either on data or wi-fi.
Just an FYI. This issue is 100% a DNS problem that appears to be specific to AT&T’s DNS servers. I have tested and confirmed this.
Basically, DNS is what translate an IP address into a website name. So when you type in seahawksdraftblog.com into your browser, the DNS servers knows that website is tied to a specific IP. For some reason, AT&T does not have a record for seahawksdraftblog.com which is why it never connects to the site. More than happy to help if you need assistance, Rob.
easy fix would be to go put an A record in for www — that does make sense, we are probably using cached DNS from our WIFI networks, so therefore it works for a bit on cellular, but then when that cache has timed out, boom, no more workie.
I have the same problem! I also have ATT. The site does not load at all for me on a cellular connection. I can only get through if I’m on WiFi.
I also have AT&T and it happens for me as well. I can’t access it on my phone if I’m away from WIFI. I’m usually around wifi so it isn’t a big deal…
Same with me as well: AT&T phone that won’t open on cell data but comes up instantly on WIFI.
Same with me
I’ve dealt with this problem for years on ATT and this site. No problem when I was in Europe a couple months ago so definitely ATT. I’ve concluded it’s some sort of cookies issue (I’m not technical btw). Clearing them temporarily restores access much in the same way using a different mobile browser can work for a short time.
I have ATT wireless and I am almost always able to get the site on wifi and cellular. I can’t remember the last time I had trouble on my phone, although I do recall having problems in the past. Admittedly I mostly access SDB on my Macbook.
But occasionally I have trouble with the site on my Macbook (using Safari)
Strangely, I’ve been trying to get my phone verified with Discord but I don’t receive their SMS verification messages 🤷🏻♂️
When i use to have ATT, i faced that issue. It use to work fine when I’m home due to wifi connection but outside SBD site was not rendering.
I’m on Virgin mobile currently (Canada) and it has been like that since I can remember. I have never, even once, been able to access the site via mobile data, only on Wifi. I was with Rogers before (also Canadian) and I believe it was the same but cant remember for sure.
I had this problem a few years back. When I switched to duck duck go it hasn’t been a problem though.
It’s pretty interesting that it seems to be associated with ATT and or a Canadian GSM carrier. The thing is, it would also just depend on who Rob is hosting with. IE, is the site using a CDN, etc. I might give ATT a call though to see if I can get a ticket escalated to someone who has a brain, not much hope in that. Seeing as I don’t have issues with any other site though, might be worth Rob’s time to move to to another hosting provider or address the issue with his hosting provider as this could affect quite a few people who might have thought to come to the site via a tweet or YT but were unable as they were on ATT. (110 million folks on ATT in the US)
Zacch Pickens official visit…
https://twitter.com/AaronWilson_NFL/status/1647995620504813571
Love seeing this.
Pickens might be my favorite of the DL prospects. Compares favorably with Dre’Mont, good pedigree, and looked really good at the Senior Bowl. I feel like you pair him with a Young, and then a big body and the DLine is looking a lot better.
Exactly this.
He’s up there for sure. I like Benton’s fit a bit more, as Pickens has a more redundant skillset to Dre’Mont.
Those two for the DL would be my #1 hope. Then get some early down big’s later that can eat a double and anchor in place.
McDonald, Benton, Pickens would make my draft. I’d be happy with one of them honestly.
Sweet!
Added, along with several others (meetings, interest, local) today.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1J3d023YdKp9MFv7OQTy0YTssJ65qLd_aB0UJFGVHxPY/edit#gid=662896383
Rob.
Have you thought about doing a video where we turn five into infinite first round picks?
Sort of like asking a genie for infinite wishes?
I’ve not really considered this position before because I actually follow the actual draft….but it seems to be a pretty strong position.
Also since we are cash strapped and we found woolen late, just to save money, should we turn pick five into a couple hundred 7th round picks?
I mean I want talent. No doubt. But I’m actually more vested in the hawks having a clean balance sheet than anything else. Seahawks cap blog anyone…..lord why has the draft felt like its two weeks away for 100 years at this point.
For shits and giggles I traded everything down till my first pick was at 52.
Ended up with 6 first round picks in 2024:
SEA
TB
NYG
BUF
ARI
MIA
Nicely done!!!!
And if we do this again next year we should have all the 1st round picks in 2025
lol – I mean, if this were possible, they should just it just for sh@ts and giggles! can you imagine just going into the first round and hearing the Seahawks name for 32 straight selections haha
Would be fun for us and Rob after years of missing the whole first round.
Actually 7 1sts. Got Green Bay’s too.
So it is possible for infinite firsts. So, if my math is right in 2026….we could conceivably be looking at 32 picks in a row.
And then, you parley those into the next two the three years of futures and you end up with a case where eventually you are picking 15-20 players, trading the rest and forever dominating the league 🙂
If you play les snead saying “f them picks,” in reverse this is what it sounds like.
I haven’t, no
Appreciate the answer to a truly b.s. comment!!
I think this is a really interesting concept. The NFL is so “win now” that “this year’s” draft has such a huge bias. If you could suck it up for a year or two and trade your first in the current draft (year 0) for firsts in the year 1 and year 2 drafts (ie. you lose out on a year 0 1st), then you do it again in year 1 so you have 3 1sts in year 2 and 2 in year 3, ad infinitum. By year 2, you are selecting 2 firsts, and trading the 3rd. I’m not sure if you could find a partner willing to do that every year, but if you can suck it up for just one year it has the potential to pay long range benefits.
But it seems like each year, we can’t imagine losing out on that one 1st because we are so desperate for talent. What if the Colts had ID’d RW as a gamer and traded the Luck pick for like 4 or 5 1sts. I bet they could have done it, and then scooped Russ in the 2nd…
Which brings us to today: If a QB is sitting there at 5, would someone give us 2 or 3 future firsts (nothing in this draft) for the option? Could we turn into a perennial draft power broker, with consistent picks in the 20’s, and then a variable pick that wanders around the round year to year? It was really fun last year routing against the Broncos for draft position. Extra element of fandom.
Agreed, we’re tired of this conversation, but it’s going to happen until Carter is finally picked.
I know Larry Stone’s article was brought up a few threads ago. When he’s saying the accumulation of issues & red flags is why the team shouldn’t draft him, it feels like it’s a hint from the front office. He’s such a connected, mainstream, non hot take guy, that a full column from him is the clearest sign that Carter isn’t going to be a Seahawk.
Also: Let’s remember the 2017 draft, where Seattle was sitting at #26 with “the most competitive player in the draft” still on the board…until John Schneider commenced a series of trade-downs in order to gamble on one of the least competitive players in draft history at #35. If Schneider were to tick off his biggest draft regrets, methinks that one has to be right up there near the top. How likely is he to double back and repeat that colossal error?
Snippet from the article.
“Simms’ Top Five QBs:
C.J. Stroud, Ohio State. “To me, Stroud was the offense at Ohio State. Bryce Young ran the offense at Alabama.”
I kinda feel the opposite? Even if Bryce Young is more the high scoring point guard than a power forward.
I agree that’s a weird statement. Ohio State has some great WR’s that are going to be drafted in the 1st round. I couldn’t name a single WR on Alabama’s without looking it up.
Simms also called for Richardson to start Week One.
Why? He needs reps.
I swear the media, especially national media has gone full smooth brain with these lazy ass dumpster fire takes. Really makes them lose any credibility in my opinion.
Remember in 2020 when the Seahawks signed Snacks Harrison to the practice squad October, put him on the exercycle for 6 weeks and didn’t activate him until mid-November?
Then played him in 6 games, maxing him out at 30 snaps?
Then made him a healthy scratch for the “beat the Rams and you win the division game”?
And then cut him after some sparks and snark from Snacks?
I’ll take “Things I try to forget” for $500
🤣😂🤣😂
Feels like that is what we’d be dealing with if they took Carter.
But it would cost them #5.
I think (hope, pray…) that they’ve learned their lesson (JS did talk about this in his latest radio appearance, see direct link below) from past experience and will be swayed by last year’s draft success to stay the course.
Seattle Seahawks GM John Schneider on draft board, Top 30 visits
https://youtu.be/yiNGQy-_m-k?t=468
I think the horse is still dead. Perhaps more discussion about the 20th or 37th picks and options available. Do we really pass on Ade Ade to trade down in hopes of landing McDonald? Other than Kancey and Ade Ade, who are the really good values at the end of the 1st round at DE/NT?
I’m not feeling it with Mazi Smith, is he really someone we’d heavily consider at 20 or 37 instead of the other options you’ve listed previously?
There’s so much more to talk about with 10 days left, especially with all that’s already been said.
I’ll bite. Bijan Robinson has to be the pick at #20 if he falls that far.
But he won’t, so I think Michael Mayer, Brian Branch, Ade Ade, Calijah Kancey, Keion White, and McDonald are all in play there.
I was on this train until I started thinking about future contracts.. I just don’t think a RB is worth a first anymore with how cheaply you can get them in FA these days.
Agree it is not the best option in terms of contract value, but Bijan is different. He has elite, generational talent. He is like AP, Marshall Faulk, LaDanian Tomlinson-level good. Some of his tape is just unbelievable as bboth a runner and receiver. That’s a lottery ticket I would buy at #20 all day long.
Plus, he helps address our WR3 issue as well (this year at least), possibly freeing up another pick in this draft for a different position of need.
And this is the point where I defer to you guys, I don’t watch college ball so don’t have an opinion outside of one I form here regarding draft prospects. I should say, “as a general rule” I would shy away from RB’s at this point, but ya, if you have one that is truly that much better than the rest of the pack and truly one of those greats then go get him. I would happily pay a first to get Marshawn back at age 23 again.. Absolutely freaking love that guy and the swag he brought to the hawks.
If we would use Bijan or Gibbs as a WR3, or show some 2 RB sets like last season, then I’d be more on board with the pick. But even when they had a healthy Procise, I rarely saw him line up as a receiver to get a matchup. McKissic did some though and I liked that.
I’d take Branch off the list, but my biggest question is where has all the love for Ade Ade gone? Is getting a 3rd/4th round pick become more important than snagging the most elite athlete at DL, perhaps ever? Does Rob think he’s worth it? Because we’ve become focused on McDonald and honestly he may go before #20 the way people are talking about him lately.
Got the frame, but athleticism not good.
Also not good… 😬 https://twitter.com/ByJoshCarney/status/1620207547914551297
I’d be surprised if we took another tackle before day 3. Maybe planting a UDFA seed?
They’ve met with McFadden who seems like he’d be a later round guard convert. Dawan Jones and Steen too though. Steen has shorter arms but good testing, so maybe another guard convert. Jones is an absolute mountain, so maybe the Lucas to guard idea there.
Barrow was lined up at guard in that Senior Bowl clip, though he did get steamrolled!
Rob has mentioned that the Rams would moved athletic tackles inside. McFadden ran a good 40, but that’s about it. Steen seems like the only visit that matches that MO
They also met with athletic Utah OT Braeden Daniels who seems like a possible G convert. He’s make a solid Day 3 pick.
Indeed. He’s already listed as a Guard on the spreadsheet, so I didn’t think to include him. Definitely fits the bill though, and hits that day 3 range.
Could be looking for options throughout different parts of the draft and UDFA.
Off topic, but any Last Kingdom fans on the blog?
Abso-freaking-lutely.
Watched it all, and rewatched the first 3 seasons probably at least 3 times (rewatched it before each new season came out). Haven’t watched the movie yet.
History major here who normally has the long viking beard.
I’m low key obsessed with the history of the British Isles, from prehistoric to Tudor
Love the show and the books!
I need to read the books for sure.
I listened to them. They got me through 2 1/2 weeks of work. Bernard Cornwell put an incredible amount of work into those books.
I read the books first and did a serious “WTF is this?” on watching the show.
The stuff with Ragnar is like book 3, while it was more like S1:E5 of the series. I couldn’t believe how much of that story-arc they left out. It was still an entertaining show.
The books are great though, as with most adaptations.
Hell yes! Gotta love Uhtred!
Saw the movie two nights ago, was good fun.
Same
Gonna miss Uhtred son of Uhtred
I’ve sure enjoyed it
I posted this right before this article went up and although it doesn’t deal with Carter I’m very curious on how everyone has done with evaluating QB’s in the past but if no one replies I’ll know it’s not an engaging question so I’ll drop it
Speaking of QB evaluations how has everyone done in the past? Who are you most proud of that you got right and who were you dead wrong about? I always thought I did a pretty good job with evaluating but looking back on some of my thoughts I’m probably right about average and would’ve gotten fired as GM over some of my picks for sure
Most Proud: Josh Allen, I knew he was going to be a stud and hated Josh Rosen as a prospect that year and I didn’t think very highly of Sam Darnold either, thought he needed to stay in college another year.
Dead Wrong: Patrick Mahomes, never liked hearing the term “gunslinger” because I thought it just meant irresponsible with the football and my gut was he wasn’t going to be a good choice. I really liked Watson that year but thought Trubisky was the safest pick
I was also very stressed about the Rams taking Wentz over Goff and was elated when Goff was selected, thought I was a genius for years until that injury and now it has swung out of my favor lol
My main point being that after looking over the last 10+ years of drafts this is the first time I’ve had the gut feeling of 4 QBs being successful without much hesitation and I can’t say I’ve felt that way possibly ever which is why I want one so desperately since we actually have a top 5 pick to potentially get it done
Hadn’t seen this on Wypler, via Stacy Rost a while back:
Houston may be in a position to accept less for 2 than Arizona could get for 3 because they have so many picks already
Especially if the compensation includes high 2024 picks. Not sure Arizona wants to wait a full year for it’s payoff.
Seattle needs to be all over this.
I’m pretty sure that’s not how that works. They’ll definitely want more than Arizona given they pick #2, which is assigned a decently larger value than #3.
Given the context, Seattle would likely need to pay a premium compared to other teams for #3 because division rival, hence moving up to #2 may not cost all that much more if at all.
I’d argue the opposite. Arizona should be completely averse to sticking at 3 and quite happy to delay gratification with future picks. They can’t go QB and have a terrible roster, while being tied to Kyler.
Houston has a lot of work to do, but needs a package that can better justify passing on the QBs.
Instead talking about pick 5 I want to talk about pick 20. This is Seattle’s 1st round pick and I wouldn’t be surprised if they were unable to get a trade down who do you this they would take. Will McDonald IV would not surprise and in fact would remind of Seattle taking Bruce Irving at pick 15. Back then I had picked him in the 3 round and like the media and I was completely caught off guard. I find myself in a position of wanting a TE Darnell Washington but because of Seattle’s needs it’s not going to happen. What I’ve learn doing these drafts you can’t get everyone you want.
Hoping for Will McDonald at 20, then a trade back up for Ade Ade (33?).
Grab an OC and TE/WR with next couple picks, then go DT, DB and RB.
QB
OLB
DE
OC
TE/WR
DT
DB
RB
That would be my dream scenario for the first 3 picks as well.
Richardson
Macdonald
Ade Ade
If you added those 3 guys you are getting 3 lottery tickets on potential stars. You could legitimately end up with a star QB, elite 10+sac edge rusher and the most atheltic 3Tech in the NFL.
That is how you turn an average roster into a Super Bowl contender in 2-3yrs time particularly if you can add solid role players and a starter or two with the remaining 7 picks.
5 Anthony Richardson
20 Will McDonald IV
37 John Michael Schmitz
52 Keenu Benton
83 Jonathon Mingo
123 Byron Young (alabama)
IF Cater and Anderson are there at 5 , Im hoping the Hawks take Anderson . However if he is gone or if the Hawks choose Carter over him(I would be surprised) im fine with that .Obviously it would mean they feel like they can work with him.But I feel if it was Petes pick it would be Carter but correct me if im wrong but I feel its Johns pick and has been since last draft where Pete has had to take a step back.And I would beshocked if john chose Carter.
I think we really need to pump the brakes with the “Pete’s pick/John’s pick” stuff.
“If it’s Guy X, that was definitely Pete. If it’s Guy Y, we know Schneider is in charge.”
They’re a team and they have their individual roles in the power structure. All the guys they pick, whether we like the picks or not, are made according to rules and structure that ownership and management clearly all agree on ahead of time.
The idea that there’s some sort of wrestling match between Schneider and Carroll over every pick seems crazy to me. They’ve been working together hand-in-glove for over a decade now and they clearly get along great and like each other and respect each other. Each guy will naturally have differing opinions on different players, as all talent-evaluators do. But they both clearly value the opinions of the other.
I highly doubt it’s a situation where Carroll is sitting there all pissed off because Schneider got empowered to take a guy that Carroll doesn’t like, or vice versa. That’s not how long-term collaborations and power-sharing arrangements work. People in that kind of a dynamic don’t continue to work with each other closely for 12 straight years.
And not that you, personally, were doing this, but while I’m on the topic, a particularly grating form of this is the “If it’s a good player, that was Schneider; if the pick was a bust, that was Carroll.” It’s really lazy, and there’s basically no evidence of it. People just somehow, somewhere decided that Pete Carroll is a short-termist with no vision of the future (cause he’s old, I guess?). Then everyone repeats that idea to one-another, lending it some kind of credence through sheer repetition, even though I’ve never seen anyone actually point out evidence of why this is true. Sheer speculation based on personal bias.
I agree with the main point of your post completely. They have talked from the beginning about putting aside egos and working collaboratively with each other and maybe I am a sucker but I believe it. They work together to try and find the best players for the program. Sometimes they get in wrong and they get it wrong in many different ways, which can be spun to say player x was a John pick or player z was a Pete pick. I’ve never believed that they would say ‘okay you can have this player for the present, but then I get this player for the future’. That would be a horrible way to run a franchise.
Dharma Dan and Patrick I agree with you both and all great points.
I agree. I feel like John and Pete kind of take on the angel and devil roles for people’s own misgivings on here sometimes. If the pick is well liked and someone the blog has talked about, then it is all John and it is like we were all able to keep our new year’s resolutions going, we’re all working out and in shape, making good decisions. If it is a guy with red flags or doesn’t meet our expectations of roster building – whoa, Pete, WTF! I fell off the wagon, quit the gym and cheated on my wife again! Fuck you Pete for making me do that shit!
Ha-Ha! Ain’t that the truth!
Do any or all of you really think the Adams trade was something John was in favor of considering GMs love the draft, love picks?
Actually, I think John got his marching orders and made it happen at any cost.
I think you are giving John way to much credit. He is the one that is negotiating with teams, he is the one resigning players. When we see contracts that are disconnected from reality in terms of value, that is John being a damn idiot by doing one of two things, bidding against himself, or bringing Pete an Opportunity that didn’t really exist outside of making an offer that a team can’t refuse.
Agree Tom. There are times they work together and there are times Pete pulls rank imo. We’ll never know for sure when that occurs and certainly they’ve missed together on draft picks and certainly Pete has likely insisted on a pick that worked out and vice versa. But people still talk like John is an autonomous GM which he is not. So since the buck tops with Carroll, it is fair for more criticism to be directed at him.
@Glor, why am I giving John too much credit? Pete told John he wanted Adams, basically at any cost (and it was a doozy!) and John got him. Pete, at the time, was making that call and John said “yessir!”.
That’s my take on it anyway.
@Big Mike
I think you are correct from a historic POV, but I think John has more autonomy now to overrule Pete and honestly, it could be because saw the error of his ways and actually has gotten out of John’s business (i.e. Pete letting John doing his job the way John sees best). Pete still has a lot of input but ultimately JS makes the draft/trade call.
In other words, Pete, the old dog, is still able to learn new tricks and listen to his peers.
Good point, BM. I agree with the general argument that Pete and JS are working together. But I do think the Adams trade was driven by Pete. High risk draft picks are one thing, the Adams trade was in another realm altogether, could not be justified even before the injuries. For a few years there, they were, i think, in the “we’ve got our Russ window, we only need one more piece to make a run for a ring” mode. That’s not risk-taking, that’s a gambler’s thinking, and that was a gambler’s move. Big lesson, and they hopefully never do that again. Window or not, your short-term decisions should never sacrifice the long-term.
Especially for a 210 lb box Safety. 2 firsts for Myles Garrett in his prime? I’m listening. For a non-premium position? Nope.
Big Mike, regarding your question, this is exactly what I’m talking about. We’ve never been given any evidence that the Adams trade was Pete’s idea that Schneider was opposed to. It’s just assumed that must be the case, with zero actual evidence.
Of course that *could* be the case. It’s not a crazy suggestion. But I find it really irritating that it’s assumed it *must* be the case, to the point of it being considered obviously wrong if we suggest perhaps it’s not the case.
Rob runs the best Seahawks site on the whole internet here. He’s built it up with many different talents, but one of his top talents is basing his speculation, arguments and discussions on *ACTUAL EVIDENCE*, rather than pure emotions or baseless assumptions. I just find it a bit off-brand when regular SDB commenters act as if this whole Pete=bad moves/ John=good moves thing is based on anything other than muh feels.
We’ve never been given a shred of actual evidence that Carroll wanted the Adams trade while Schneider opposed it. That was invented on the internet by people’s feelings. It might be true, but it might not. We need to stop acting as if it’s some fact that’s been well established. Repeating speculation 10 times doesn’t change it from speculation to fact. It’s still just something we made up.
Thanks for that DharmaDan. I feel exactly the same. A logical speculation in contrast to the other reductive speculation that fits the whole black&white, shouting thing that internet discussion so often descends into.
People picked Wilson over Pete, then everything bad (especially recent drafts) become Pete’s fault. But then there is a good draft, so must be Jody gave John the reins back. So 2020s…lol And all with absolutely no indications of anything of the sort.
A breeze of reason!
Thanks Van. Well said.
My takeaway: I’m just exhausted from all of the talk, more than ready to get it over with. Everyone is dug in to what they want the team to do and no one is going to budge. Every piece of news or opinion in the media is just taken to confirm everyone’s preconceived take.
Right now it is just all bluster, every cough in the wind is “Seattle is interested in this player at 5 and/or 20 despite all of the facts, history, and tendency counteracting this point.”
Rob was right, the draft should have already happened.
Rob you have mention n number of times now, JS and PC are doing everything right so far. Now it’s time execute on draft day. Few points
1) JS and PC are aware of the rare opportunity of having 5th over pick
2) JS knows how to evaluate QB, based on what they are now vs what they will be in 2, 5 and 10 years.
3) Character is important
4) Position like QB (don’t grow on trees), DL and OL are more important and difficult to find and resign to 2nd contract. Check out Jalen new contract.
Just relax for next less than 2 weeks, JS is set for AR as 5th pick. I will thrilled to see 2nd pick as Ade Ade or Will McDonald most like after small trade down.
NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reports Alabama QB Bryce Young canceled his remaining pre-draft visits.
If there was any doubt that he would be a top 2 pick, that doubt is gone. Pretty much a lock that he is a Panther.
I really hope you’re right. I just don’t know how anyone argue with the value of AR if Will Anderson is off the board. Tyree is a weird scheme fit and middling prospect, Jalen is… a walking red flag, and Witherspoon is, well, a cornerback. There’s plenty of DL talent for pick 20, 37 and 52.
Oops, meant as reply to Ashish.
Given the options at EDGE in that range, I don’t think Anderson is all that much of an improvement compared to those options. The value just isn’t there for me for Anderson at 5, this should be QB or bust, and it’s not even close. Anderson just doesn’t provide the long term impact needed to elevate this team to the next level. A QBoTF can definitely accomplish that.
It’d be weird to have a front office with a history of mining great corner talent in the later rounds to then take a CB at 5, when they’ll probably never had a top-5 pick again.
It still makes sense to me to go QB (or Anderson). Any other position just doesn’t seem to fit the value at 5.
Everyone is predicting Seattle to take Jalen Carter. For me that makes me nervous. I just don’t want any part of Carter. Also don’t want Tyree Wilson. Wilson’s body type is exceptional. But he doesn’t fit our scheme. Nwosu was asked to drop in coverage 10 percent of the type. Wilson is not built that way. In fact Wilson’s build is similar to Carlos Dunlap. Dunlap didn’t fit the scheme. So they let him go.
In fact I would take Devon WItherspoon over Wilson/Carter in a New York second. It is still looking like either one of the 4QBs or Will Anderson Jr. Which suites me just fine. Thank you Denver.
Witherspoon is a Seahawk type player. But he is also a Detroit Lion player. I don’t see him going past Detroit.
I know it is a long long shot. But the Seahawks did bring Witherspoon in for a visit.
Just my opinion. But if you had Woolen/WItherspoon as your cornerbacks that would help the pass rush. Just my opinion.
I bet the Lions are holding their breath on Witherspoon. To put it mildly. The Lions cornerbacks in 2022 were nothing to brag about.
When was the last time “everyone” got Seattle’s first pick right? I’m not too worried only because every year people say they’re going to do x, and it almost never happens.
Yeesh. The headline here is that Jalen Carter falls, but that’s burying the lead. They have Will Levis dropping all the way to the end of the first. With us passing on him twice (for Tyree Wilson and then Zay Flowers). SMH.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/nfl-mock-draft-2023-jalen-carter-falls-in-first-round-as-bijan-robinson-rises/ar-AA19Xtkl?ocid=hplocalnews&cvid=f6a496d5e88448d79476e77ffa23e1b8&ei=11
If anyone wonders why you draft your QBOTF at 5 if there is a guy you like then look no further than Jalen Hurts contract. Even if you have to sit the rookie for a year you get 4 yrs of cheap QB play and the chance to extend him that 5th year in a way that can help your cap situation.
When you are drafting at 5 QB should be option A, B and C IMO if there are quality options available.
That and the value and impact of a QBoTF is just so much greater than any other position, even elite DL prospects dont carry the value and impact a QBoTF does.
Mike Lombardi said he starting to think that Arizona is going to have a difficult time trying to move that third round pick
Also guess who is number one on Tony Pauline’s big board. It is the one and only: That’s right. You guessed it. Jalen Carter tops Tony Pauline’s draft board.
Speaking Jalen Carter. Here is something NO-ONE is talking about. Jalen Carter was in an accident where two people were killed. How is that going to effect Jalen Carter from a mental perspective? No has even mentioned that. And it was the way they were killed. Drunken driving racing. BTW: How fast were they going?
There is a real (if slight) possibility that 2 out of Stroud/Richardson/Levis are there at 5. I still think they will like Richardson the most, but that would be fascinating.
If you are evaluating for talent and not accounting for the off the field stuff, it’s not unreasonable to have Carter at the top of your board, though I think that the conditioning / snap count concerns that have been discussed are real.
Whatever happens with Carter, I hope he gets the support/circumstances that he needs to get the most out of his life. I always am rooting for the human, but of course that doesn’t mean I want my team to invest huge resources in them. As for the speed of the accident I don’t know, but I believe the reports on Geno’s arrest were that he was driving 96. It is a thin line between being reviled and celebrated.
Well … that’s is all about what they want for #3, but number 3 is ALWAYS easy to trade, it is just about the ask.
On the mental state of JC v car crash deaths, not sure which I would be more worried about, that he was deeply shaken … or that he wasn’t.
I’m sticking with the guess QBs go 1-4 and if you aren’t in 1-4, you are not in the top 4 QB sweepstakes.
Disagree. I think one falls to us. But I wouldn’t be at all surprised if you are correct.
Well mocking without paying the iron price is a heck of a lot more fun. Feels like cheating.
One last point. 51 million per year. $179mil guaranteed. For Jalen Hurts. I wonder what both LaMarr Jackson and the Ravens front office are thinking. Right now the Raven’s front office might be thinking. Thank’s Philadelphia.
The fact that the deal got done with no media drama or negotiations speaks volumes IMO.
Clearly the team loves the player and the player wants to be there. That’s clearly not the case in Baltimore.
Because Hurts has an actual agent who can negotiate without bad blood being brought into the picture.
As Schneider has said several times, it’s frustrating dealing with these players who represent themselves because they take a discussion of market value as a personal affront. It almost forces you into an uncomfortable stand off where both sides are losing, as Lamar and Baltimore are right now.
No one should have an agent who refers to their client as “moms most special little boy.”
Well played Peter, but oh so true!
😀
“Suddenly he’s too much of a bigshot to brush mother’s hair.”
//beat
https://youtu.be/Y7i5S5pBDwI
Excellent pull , cha!
Using early picks to add talent at premium positions is a must IMO. Forget Center, NT, and Safety in rounds 1-2.
For example
#5 Richardson (QB)
#20 McDonald (edge)
#37 Ade Ade (DL)
#53 Julius Brents (CB)
#82 Johnathan Mingo (Wr)
If the Hawks did something like this they would be set at all the premium positions on rookie deals for the next 3-4 yrs.
QB: Richardson
OT : Lucas / Cross
CB : Woolen / Brents
Edge : McDonald / Mafe
DL: Ade Ade
WR: Mingo
RB: Walker
Even if the Hawks wanted to go out next off season and add the top Center and Nose Tackle on the free agent market it would cost a fraction of the top OT or Edge rusher for example.
#53 i would like to get 3 down RB who can be backup RB.
I’m curious as to where you’re hearing Carter’s not coachable. Not saying the sentiment isn’t out there, but on tape he’s clearly learned a lot, presumably from coaches. His hand fighting technique is excellent. He has learned multiple effective moves and knows how to sequence them. He makes smart adjustments and counter adjustments as the trench battle unfolds in a game.
I just find it interesting that there’s very little correlation between the skills someone has learned and their perceived ability to learn them. Tyree Wilson, for instance, is old/experienced but still very raw, has one real move and doesn’t really have a plan B ever, but he doesn’t have coachability concerns. Jalen Carter has 3, maybe 4, pro ready moves and seems to have a detailed and evolving plan every snap, but he isn’t coachable.
Talent: natural aptitude or skill.
Carter is talented. Maybe there’s things he can be coached up on.
The coachability comes down to his own coach and himself discussing improving conditioning and not doing so.
That there are reports that he doesn’t hit the weights, doesn’t always do film study, and sort of did what he wanted at Georgia because of talent.
Check out what Todd McShay said recently
That’s where it’s from, he spoke specifically to how Carter dealt with coaches
My biggest fear:
Seahawks are always compete, until they favor some vets to some hungry rookies
They usually draft for need instead of BPA
They rarely learn from their mistakes
If we think they are the old dog that can learn new tricks like not being arrogant, not drafting for need, etc what makes us think they are not using that principle to finally “fix the passrush/DL”?
Carter wouldn’t do that. It would be 99% a wasted pick. He’s lazy and the opposite of an all-football competitor.
I think Rob is right. I hope they’re smarter than that…but thought that a couple of times and got burned. Like the Adams trade when they forced the passrush issue. Or have some guys totally out of shape for training camp.
They did it differently last year but was that a trend or an outlier?
I’m pretty much in stress with this draft. It can pave the way to 5-10-15 successful years or it might be the beginning of the end of an era and 5-10 years of mediocricity or worse (not this single draft but it could break the culture, the locker room and the team).
Maybe I’m a bit dramatic but this feels like an important milestone. And I’m not sure I trust this FO to not shoot themselves in the foot
We’re gonna find out very soon. As you mentioned, this draft is important. Like you I’m hoping they draft to continue to build the foundation for long term success.
I agree, this is such a pivotal moment for the franchise. If they throw away the #5 pick and use it on an underwhelming defensive player (Anderson, Wilson, Witherspoon, Carter) a lot of fans like myself will just lose interest in the team until a new regime is in place.
honestly in this draft will reveal just how the Seahawks feel about where they are
as a realistic winner
with Geno
or they temper expectations and say “Its the 5 pick its rare air we gotta grab someone like Richardson for the future . Im just so curious to see which one it is.
Report:
“Alabama quarterback Bryce Young has canceled his remaining pre-draft visits, per NFL Media. The only teams to host Young for top-30 visits were the Carolina Panthers (No. 1 pick) and the Houston Texans (No. 2 pick).”
Many speculating that this means he is a lock for #1 or #2, if you are in the pick the QBOTF camp is Bryce Young as the #1 pick the best possible outcome?
Many such as myself are weary to take him given his size and having him taken #1 increases the chances of getting a QB with the traits that Schneider is looking for fall into your lap. Also the additional speculation that Houston may go defense if Young is picked #1 leads to the possibly of having multiple QB options available at pick #5 if AZ can’t find a trade partner or at the very least guaranteeing one of the Big 3 if Houston takes defender
Rob,
I saw OT Braeden Daniels had a top-30 visit with Seattle (and SF and Arizona). He fits the “tackle convert” OG model. If I recall correctly, he also had plus athleticism and fit the TEF OL model.
Can you repost the TEF scores before the draft? I expect to see at least one Day 3 OL drafted and it would be cool to have the checklist of likely candidates ready.
Lance Zierlein on twitter says the Texans are out in Stroud and trying to trade pick 2, but having a hard time as the rest of the league is down on Stroud as well.
It doesn’t really surprise me. The knock on Stroud has always been that he’s a Stone Age pony who can’t create playing with ungodly talent in an offense known for making QBs look better than they are. And all those concerns were supposed to be washed away by one game?
https://twitter.com/lancezierlein/status/1648006080012623878
https://twitter.com/lancezierlein/status/1648017365626396680
Whereas Rapoport coming in with the complete opposite. I’d probably trust Lance’s connections in Houston, but still.
https://twitter.com/PatMcAfeeShow/status/1648008538051190785
And as far as Stroud goes, unless he’s really some kind of toxic teammate, I think yes, he showed vs. Georgia what his ceiling can be and he showed off again his elite accuracy and touch at pro day (in case anyone still had doubts after watching tape). So why shouldn’t teams believe he can do that for them? Is it his fault that Ohio St. didn’t let him play outside of their system?
Schefty on Lance’s side of reporting here.
With the way things are sounding lately you could trade up for a ham sandwich, or two Jamal Adams’s
I have a hard time basing an entire player evaluation solely on one game.
Doesn’t seem there are any legit draft insiders. They’re probably just all used by teams to spread misinformation
I think there are for sure people who have relationships with people who are on teams. They can glean information about what kinds of conversations are taking place and to an extent what teams are thinking in a given moment. They can make educated guesses based on what info they hear that may or may not end up being right. They can also be used I’m sure, but also the information may be legitimate, and yet plans can change, minds can be swayed, today’s great idea can turn into yesterday’s discarded idea, etc.
Clearly not Thursday yet.
Any mock for me has the iron price (5, 20, 83 for 3)
So gotta trade back from 37 to pick up some ammo.
37 *and* ‘23 R3 (that was tough) for 41 and 72
Give 41 to the phins for 51 and 84 (they pick up Darnell Wright @41, youza)
So:
3: Richardson
51: Mayer (I mean Wright made it to 41, but basically give up 20, then 37, and act like it didn’t happen (pencil in Mingo for realism)
52: Derick Hall, I just prefer Hall over McDonald, not that McDonald was available or anything
72: Wypler, want Mauch, Mauch was gone. Watching Mazi all-snpas vs OSU gave me a bit of meh for Mazi, and all-in on Wypler.
Baltimore wanted to move up 2 spots and swap 151 for 124 as payment. Sure, o.k. They do it for Blake Freeland, don’t think they needed to jump the bolts and SEA for that …
86: JiAyr Brown (fireball with ball skills, I just think the ball will not be hitting him in the facemask on the way to the turf that often)
123: Young (ALA) Really like the Hall+Young duo for firming up the DL. Not the names getting talked about, and still work to do, but couple of good tough football players.
124: Ekiyor. Wypler + Ekiyor safely counts as adressing IOL.
154: Wilson WR out of Stanford (was left fishing here)
198: YaYa (just a SDB de jour for me)
237: Luter (want 2 safeties out of this draft, he’s on Rob’s big board).
Now obviously that ain’t gonna happen. Mayer at 51? Well, Lucas at 72 was a deal so why not? (well, because it wont, but there will be players to choose from, lets say Mingo)
I think Mcdonald is more likely to make it to 52 than Hall, but I wanted Hall so its all good, and Imay be alone in that belief.
Wypler at 72 feels about right, same for Ji’Ayr at 86, maybe he’d last longer but not until 123.
But then again, Young (ALA) has no business lasting to 123 (note the trend), PFN has him as a borderline UDFA/6/7th.
The rest is the rest.
It shouldn’t cost more than 37 to move to 3 from 5
NYG recently paid three 2nds to go from 6 to 3. Cant see ARZ deciding to give SEA an in division discount of a pair of 2nds.
https://twitter.com/petecarroll/status/1648049804382187525?s=46&t=nO2sqdt0RiJ62Deb1GAdLg
Possible draft hint?
All of those QB selfies were just a smokescreen so we can land the top kicker at #5
No. It’s literal.
Today is the first day of offseason activities.
Lance Zierlein just had some interesting updates regarding the Texans:
They are apparently shopping the pick, now that Bryce Young is basically locked.
“For the record, the person who told me that the Texans were shopping to pick also told me “good luck, trying to get someone to move up for that pick”
Not sure there is the value there we all think there is. We will see.”
https://twitter.com/LanceZierlein/status/1648038697487462410
“The disconnect may come in terms of how much you would be willing to trade up to the second pick. I truly believe there are plenty of teams who like him equally or more than Bryce young, but where do they draft and would they be willing to give up the capital to move.”
https://twitter.com/LanceZierlein/status/1648040837345865730
With Hurts new contract, and with the possibility of two QBs around at #5, not only talent, potential should be considered but also economics. I’m convinced now it will be a QB at #5
Dane Bugler’s 7 round mock draft. Hopefully they can do a bit better than this. Here is what he has as the Seahawk’s “haul”:
1 (5): Tyree Wilson, Edge, Texas Tech
1 (20): Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
2 (37): Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee
2 (52): Steve Avila, G/C, TCU
3 (83): Nick Herbig, LB, Edge, Wisconsin
4 (123): Moro Ojomo, DT, Texas
5 (151): Deuce Vaughn, RB, Kansas State
5 (154): Keondre Coburn, DT, Texas
6 (198): Eli Ricks, CB, Alabama
7 (237): Ventrell Miller, LB, Florida
Can’t see that at all
I’m with you. I do wonder if you have any thoughts on Deuce Vaughn. As a KR/PR/3rd down back?
He’s beyond tiny, but he sure did pop in every K State game I watched. Brock had him as one of his prospect spotlight guys, so it’s the 2nd time I’ve seen him talked about in relation to the Hawks.
His testing numbers weren’t all that hot, but his tape is fun. Just curious if you think he’s anything other than a gadget/special teamer.
Looks like he only returned kicks as a freshman. He did manage to get almost 2000 yards from scrimmage each of the last 2 years.
He also scored 34 TD’s in the last 2 years!
Fun dude to watch, and I’ll be pulling for him, so long as he lands with us or outside of the NFC West.
The only pick I like is Moro Ojomo.
Bugler is just yanking our chain.
Thank but no thanks. On Dane Bugler’s haul for the Seahawks.
Still not convinced Seattle doesn’t move to 2 for CJ Stroud. Just putting in on here as a possibility
Maybe – Stroud has some similarities to Geno and they may feel like that is a great fit for Waldron’s offense. I think they will be absolutely infatuated with Richardson though.
I’ve watched a lot of tape on the top 6 prospects. QB’s, Dline, Edge…and what I keep going back on is ceiling.
There’s a large part of me that if Stroud or Richardson are there at 5, I would still pick Richardson.
Everything from his character, his game tape, how much improvement he’s shown in a single season as a starter, and how young he is, I think his ceiling is too good to pass up. Stroud I believe, has a good floor, but I don’t see the why moments in the subtle QB play that I sometimes see with Richardson.
I know its not like this, but I lived in SD when the Bolts drafted Leaf. The differential ceiling was all the talk on SD radio.
Sometimes just e really good proven prospect aint so bad.
But that’s the thing, I don’t think Stroud is all that proven either. I think he still needs to sit too due the Ohio State offense to the pros.
The biggest thing about Richardson is that he’s only started 13 games. Ryan Leaf started almost double that. Some of the biggest leaps of QB’s are from 1st year to 2nd year starting. I know it’s not the same from College to Pros, but I think the idea is still the same.
Im not really disagreeing, just recalling ghosts of that debate. Proven or not he is certainly more proven or polished than Richardson. There is that whole OSU system thing.
I want Richardson because one way or another it will be entertaining football. Dude is a monster packing a bazooka, every play being must see tv.
Sounds like the Hawks Nest dude has come around to SDB thinking regarding taking a QB, specifically Richardson. He shows a few clips to justify his apparently “new” position.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3HViMU5Ikxs
He’s matching what I’ve been saying about Richardson. He has advanced QB skills that someone like Herndon hasn’t really shown.
The comments on that video are trash though.
I see the same thing. I really agree with your take this is a rare chance to swing for the fences and if you connect you’ve got the best player in the NFL and defensive coordinators are going to be scared to play against you for a decade. If it doesn’t work out well you took your shot
I was watching and saw a view of that jump pump fake against Utah I hadn’t seen before. Noticed one of the defenders was #20 Barton. Checked it out and that’s Cody’s younger brother Lander.
After a heavy storm here in Pensacola, three Seahawks today are hunting at Bayview Dog Beach. It’s a mated pair and another male that’s trying to muscle in on his action.
An omen?
Rule #1: don’t draft Ohio State QBs
Rule #2: Don’t draft Georgia defenders
Rule #3: Rules 1 and 2 can be broken in exceptional circumstances
Rule #4: defining exceptional circumstances is not easy!
Rule #1: don’t draft Ohio State QBs
Rule #2: Don’t draft Georgia defenders
Rule #3: Rules 1 and 2 can be broken in exceptional circumstances
Rule #4: defining exceptional circumstances is not easy!
Got: There is some merit to your theory
A few moves today:
Released: RB – Darwin Thompson. In addition to Thompson, the Seahawks also parted ways with DT Jarrod Hewitt, DB Chris Steele, WR Connor Wedington, and WR Easop Winston.
Signed: #Seahawks signed exclusive rights free agents Myles Adams, Michael Jackson and Jon Rhattigan.
No real surprises, except maybe the fact that we cut a DT considering our ‘depth’. Happy enough with the guys we kept.
What do people think about WR Jaydn Reed? He looks like a poor man’s Josh Downs…but he could be excellent value on Day 2/early Day 3.
I wish DK high pointed the ball the way he does. Nice player.
I’m halfway hoping that we go with Charlie Jones
He was always the go to guy on third down. I love seeing that from college WR prospects.
I wanted to like Reed as a bigger version of Downs, but what happened to his production this last season? Also has some focus drops and is a good but not great athlete.
For me, Downs’ size is worrisome (11 lbs. lighter than even Lockett; guys that size are usually just deep speedsters) but he absolutely dominated in his slot role. In his best season, he had 40% of his team’s receiving yards, which means opposing defenses knew the ball was coming to him and still couldn’t stop him.
The Ringer comped him to Tyler Lockett. He doesn’t seem quite as sudden as TL based on the 3 min YouTube video I watched. Made a lot of contested highlight catches.
If Stroud is there at 4, I’m not sure Indy would be still going with Levis.
1) Young
2) Tyree Wilson/Anderson
3) Anderson/Carter/Wilson
4) Stroud/Levis
5) Richardson/Stroud (?)
Not that my thoughts or gut means anything at this point, but I really hope to hell that JS isn’t taking any meds that would allow him to think moving back and still getting Richardson – if that’s his guy – is a possibility. Only to have that plan blow up in his face. We have enough picks to not be cute and add more….especially at the top. If you think Richardson could last to 12 maybe, who cares, take him at 5
If anyone who follows Matt Walman’s scouting reports – he’s already said incredible things about Richardson and he’s the #1 QB this year for him, followed by Stroud, Young and distant last Levis –
Share with you his pre-draft analysis is Mahomes, who was maybe the 3-5th best prospect by many
https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2018/09/22/chiefs-qb-patrick-mahomes-matt-waldmans-rsp-pre-nfl-draft-scouting-report/amp/
Interesting that Adam Schefter just bet Dan Orlovsky giving him 10/1 odds that Bryce Young will go #1 and no QB goes #2 or #3 so Indy will have their pick of Levis, Stroud, or Richardson at #4. Schefty is no draft guru but he’s obviously one of the most plugged-in insiders in the NFL so I think he’s been hearing some things.
If Indy drafts Levis as Rob has said and is well-sourced, Seattle will have Richardson or Stroud available at #5. Would Seattle go with the tools and potential that Schneider has coveted with Richardson or the polish that Stroud offers? Tough call.
Indy needs a guy to start sooner than later. I’d have to think Stroud would be the pick over Levis.
To me, Levis is the Zach Wilson/Carson Wentz of this draft. Looks great, like he rolled off a QB assembly line.
Not to beat a dead horse with praise for Matt Waldman, but he has Levis at QB13 in this draft. Yeah, no joke. His comps are Wentz, Trubisky, Gabbert.
Waldman:
Elevator Pitch: Levis the physical tools to become a franchise quarterback. He’s big enough to withstand the punishment of the pocket, quick enough to execute a play-action game that includes sprints and rolls, and his arm is strong enough to make every requisite throw.
Levis has a competent set of drops and with additional refinement of his play fakes, he could develop into a dangerous triggerman from center or pistol. He has his fair share of vertical throws on film that demonstrate his range and accuracy that can stretch a defense.
Back-shoulder fades and rail shots are what I call “dessert throws,” and Levis certainly can deliver the cakes and pies of the route tree. However, Levis must deliver the meal to become a consistent NFL starter and the meat of quarterbacking is in the middle of the field.
At this point, Levis’ accuracy in the middle of the field is a work in progress. How much of his physical potential he can fulfill depends on how quickly he can address unsound release footwork, delays between identifying what’s open and pulling the trigger, and developing greater maturity under pressure.
If there’s a quarterback talent in this class whose physical skills are placing a veil in front of the eyes of Draft Media, I’d argue it’s not Anthony Richardson, but Levis. Can Levis become a quality NFL starter? It’s possible, but the difference between Levis and Josh Allen is that Allen had sound throwing mechanics and pocket movement. Levis not only has significant lapses in these areas, but he also lacks strong coverage and game management IQ.
Allen’s ability to address his coverage and game management at this stage of his development is uncommon for NFL quarterback prospects. Levis will have to do that and re-work his fundamentals. Kerry Collins did it, so it’s not out of the question. However, I’m not projecting optimism for it to happen—especially not early-round optimism.
Maybe we could instead talk about the LB class, TE class, or absolutely ANYTHING else?
I’ll start:
Jack Campbell your thoughts? Will be he the thumper we need in the middle or be overdrafted due to the dearth at the position this year? Is Dorian Williams too small despite his blazing testing numbers and nearly 34″ arms? Is Nolan Smith the chess piece who could play a Hassan Reddick role for this defense?
This ILB class is pretty uninspiring. It’s not a position that I think will be a priority for us, this year.
Bush and Bobby until Brooks is back and then a rotation seems likely. Get a chance to see if Bush can look like a 1st rounder again and if Bobby has one more year in the tank (maybe more if he’s not forced to play 99% of snaps).
ILB seems to have a pretty shallow learning curve compared to some other positions. I can see them waiting on that spot. Henley is the only ILB projected to go early that has decent coverage skills.
Dorian Williams is interesting to me in that he’s a great coverage backer. Like it or not, our scheme forces our ILB’s to carry routes from RB’s, TE’s and even WR’s, often deep. Barton for all of his warts was actually not half bad in coverage. Bush’s calling card early on was his coverage ability, but he clearly isn’t back to where he was pre-ACL. Dorian is one of the best ILB for coverage skills (at least that I’ve watched).
Demarion Overshown and Marte Mapu are two others who excelled in coverage, but they are converted safeties. Rob said he likes the idea of moving Overshown back to that role and I think I’d feel the same about Mapu. That said, in passing situations any of them could fill the role that Barton did last year. I don’t want Bobby trying to stay with Kittle or McCafferey or Deebo because Shanny schemed that matchup.
If Bush goes down before Brooks is healthy, we need a viable alternative if we’re going to run what they want to run. Maybe Jamal can fill it in a pinch, but getting a big-bodied safety or a coverage backer seems like something they want. Whether they can find a place to take one that still feels like value, I don’t know.
Thanks for the comments, esp the coverage piece. Yeah, Dorian is a guy who ends up in many of my mocks because he’s gifted and available later. They are all so hard to gauge with regard to fit in our defense and the weird ess around guys like Sanders and Simpson. There is really no clear, consensus top guy.
Yep. Sanders and Simpson are best near the line attacking in my eyes. Sanders was an OLB/EDGE at Bama I think and moved to off-ball ILB. He can stack and shed really well, but man did he have a lot of missed tackles this year. I haven’t spent a whole lot of time watching Simpson TBH.
They both seem like they are going to go early, but don’t exactly ‘fit’ scheme-wise. Don’t get me wrong, I think Pete would love to have both of them, but it doesn’t seem like they are prioritizing the position much. Last year it was Brooks, Barton and no one. I think they liked Barton’s coverage skills, which is why I can see them looking at a similar type. I just see it as a later pick.
Unless they fix the DL anyone the put at ILB is going to struggle… kind of like last year and the year before and… well, you get the idea.
The thought of Pete Carroll trying to motivate Jalen Carter made me immediately flash to this clip from the Simpsons
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sem66tcZGYg
Funny.
Love it!
https://youtu.be/Xd0CIlDsk6k
BWagz takes day shift, avril takes swing shift, who takes graveyard
Hey Rob, interesting new mock draft tool from ESPN. Some different player rankings and bit of numbers for the picks and chance that player would be there for that pick and the following from their rankings.
https://espnsportsanalytics.com/nfl-sim
Site is legit, Brian Burke posts about it here:
https://twitter.com/bburkeESPN/status/1648044070256758798
Its pretty bare bones, but it probably has one the more accurate rankings that I saw.
The site looks/feels kind of cheap but the functionality is pretty solid. I like how you can see who you’ve already drafted on the top without having to click on somewhere else.
Like that bot
Gave it a shot
Player Rank
Chance Available at Pick
Chance Available at Next Pick
5. Will Levis QB
15
77%
27%
20. Will McDonald IV DE
24
>95%
33%
37. Josh Downs WR
65
>95%
76%
52. Keeanu Benton DT
43
83%
20%
83. Luke Wypler C/G
84
90%
62%
123. Dorian Williams ILB
94
46%
28%
151. Charlie Jones WR
124
92%
91%
154. Keondre Coburn DT
99
43%
20%
198. Davis Allen TE
129
70%
47%
237. Brandon Hill S
131
91%
–%
Neat site. Gives me a change of pace from wearing out the PFN sim anyway. Tried a 5 rounder
5
Anthony Richardson QB
10
47%
95%
–%
Pretty solid simulator. I like it.
Mike Lombardi said that every QB has a flaw. He said why trade up to get someone who has a flaw.
Seahawks don’t need to trade up.
Unless that “flaw” is a missing arm or leg then how about focus on what a player “can do” rather than one of many conceivable reasons not to draft someone.
Every QB currently in the NFL except for Lawrence and Burrough had a perceived significant flaw coming out. You trade up if you believe you can develop around the flaw. That’s what happened with all of the other top QBs in the league.
Lawrence had peaked and Burrow wasn’t mobile, plus he had to transfer to play, had great WR’s and an NFL OC…
You can pick apart any prospect if you want.
Dumb statement IMO.
To clarify: dumb statement from Lombardi, not you Patrick
Haha thanks for clarifying.
Agreed that you can find a flaw with any prospect. Lawrence and (arguably) Burrow are the only ones in in the last decade plus who had close to consensus support as no brainer prospects. Short sighted comment from Lombardi for sure.
If the Seahawks draft Jalen Carter at 5 tho…, who do you think wins in a race, him or Geno?
I do wonder if we should take another look at JSN. No, he does not have the speed the Seahawks look for at outside WR (though 4.48 is fine; Indy is a fast track too. He said in his pro day interview he was shooting for 4.47, doing 4.46-4.47 in training). But as a slot WR and complement to Lockett and DK? If he’s healthy? Just hard to get over this ranking from Hartline and the other ex-Ohio St. WRs:
https://twitter.com/BussinWTB/status/1642999593557164033
I guess they could just be doing a friend a favor talking him up a bit , but I’m inclined to believe not.
Could it just be another case of overthinking ala Justin Jefferson…? (I know he’s not JJ, not comparing him directly) JSN produced an incredible, record-breaking season in 2021 (95 rec, 1606 yds, 8 TD) while sharing targets with two other top WRs that have gone on to have success. Why shouldn’t we expect him to be really good next to DK and Tyler? Elite agility, good hands, 90% contested catch rate, knows how to manipulate DBs, slippery RAC, QB rating when targeted of 141.8.
What if our draft simply went heavy on the Ohio St. offense to start:
Stroud
JSN
DL
Wypler
I could think of worse… Of course, I could also think of better if we want to go offense heavy/BPA:
Stroud
Mayer
DL
Wypler
Mingo
Is it just the medicals, only one year of production, and ok 40 time or what do I need to go watch? Cause about every game you turn on he’s going for 100 yds. And the final 4 games he averaged 152 yds before that monster 347yds/3TD game vs. Utah.
Not trying to stat scout, but usually only really good players produce those kind of numbers. Do you think his skillset won’t translate to the NFL level?
If teams really are lower on him, then maybe you can even get him at 37.
PC sure looked content after talking to the two of them: 😊
https://youtu.be/2dhJKGDxi_I?t=97
I’ve heard – more than once – that JSN is the only WR in the draft with a 1st round grade. As such, he’s likely gone by #20.
I wouldn’t hate if he were there and was the call. He was incredible in 2021 (though Utah was down to being forced to play a running back at corner after they lost their 4th CB to injury IIRC).
Are we going to really go QB, WR, C with 3/4 of our first picks though? If #5 is on the defense, I think using #20 on offense becomes more realistic but again, I don’t think JSN will be there and wouldn’t want to spend that pick on any other WR.
It’s a fun exercise to do a ‘themed’ mock draft. I did one today which was the ‘a$$-kickers only’ mock (3 rounds). Ended up with:
Will Anderson
Mazi Smith
Ade Ade
Cody Mauch
Defensive front and OL gets meaner.
I rather have a TE before a receiver… With our running game, the more sets we have with TEs that can catch, I feel like the better our offense will be.
That said, unless we’re getting someone like Kittle or Kelce, I’d rather wait until the 2nd round. And since the best TEs in the league last name starts with K, we should probably focus on drafting Kraft.
Missed reply about JSN thread.
Yes, I also feel the TE class is much better and worth dipping into this year than the WR class. Just trying to cover all bases!
Wut??? There has to be something off with this.
Smoke and mirrors.
Those numbers don’t include the option bonuses.
I’d like to know how Philly is paying all these guys… Both corners, the OL, DL, AJ Brown and now a mega-deal for Hurts. It’s insane.
They have over $130million in void years already committed to the 2022 roster.
Not the 2023 roster. The 2022 roster.
They have guys with void years out to 2030.
It also is highly likely that there are a few void years on there. I looked at Philly’s contracts a couple of weeks ago and noticed that EVERY SINGLE ONE of their guys who wasn’t on a rookie contract or making less than about $2M had AT LEAST 2 void years, with most having 3 or 4! Even their kicker has a couple of void years on his deal.
That’s going to hurt down the road.. win now pay later mode
Void years
Yeah, void years, incentives, roster bonuses, etc. There is so much cap-fuckery that goes on that I can not even try to keep up, nor do I care to. I hope they have a basement office full of bean counters and lawyers at the VMAC so we can figure out how to turn a red cap sheet black with a bunch of smoke and mirrors like so many other teams seem to do.
Also, Rob, please don’t post a new blog entry for another 24 hours. Let this get this mofo to at least 500 comments of OMG-we-have-nothing-else-to-talk-about pre-draft wanking.