Podcast, Vernon Butler & the facts on TEF

April 12th, 2016 | Written by Rob Staton

In this weeks podcast Kenny and I get into some serious draft talk with just over two weeks to go. Check it out…

Sometimes these visits are about due diligence, sometimes teams will seek to complete a physical profile, sometimes it’s about seeing how a player handles himself in a facility and sometimes it’s about seeing how they interact with everyone from the cleaning staff to the coaches.

In the case of Vernon Butler, I’m guessing it’s a bit of everything.

He had a rather underwhelming combine where he recorded the following:

40-yd: 5.33
10-yd: 1.82
Vertical: 29.5
Broad: 8-8
Bench: 26

When he performed at his pro-day — there was a big improvement across the board:

40-yd: 5.19
10-yd: 1.77
Vertical: 3.5
Broad: 9-3
Bench: DNP

As a bit of a late bloomer in terms of his college career, it wouldn’t be a shock if they’re spending a bit of extra time working out what he is at the next level.

TEF was created essentially to judge offensive linemen. However, we can at least use it to compare the O-liners and D-liners. Germain Ifedi is 6-6 and 324lbs, while Vernon Butler is 6-3 1/2 and 323lbs. They have similar size and length — yet Ifedi is a 2.95 using TEF and Butler is a 3.13.

That’s not an insignificant difference.

That’s partly the reason why they might be looking very closely at Butler. They’ve consistently taken explosive, difference-making athletes early in the draft. Butler is, according to TEF, quite a bit more explosive than Ifedi. Having to handle his physical profile at nearly 6-4 and 323lbs makes him intriguing.

That said — and this is probably another reason why the Seahawks are meeting with him — he’s going to need to be a pass rusher. He only had three sacks in 2015. Why? He has the physical tools, Louisiana Tech’s schedule was pretty pathetic last year. Why wasn’t he more productive?

That’s a question they’ll no doubt be trying to answer during this visit. As good as Butler’s physical profile might be, it’s unlikely the Seahawks take a big body with minimal pass-rush ability in round one.

Butler could be an option if the likes of Sheldon Rankins and Jonathan Bullard are off the board and they decide to take a defensive player at #26.

The facts on TEF

There appears to be a misunderstanding with TEF (Trench Explosion Formula) and I wanted to take a moment to just clear a few things up.

(The original explanation, which carries more detail, can be found here)

The point of the formula is NOT to determine who will be a great player at the next level or who I think the Seahawks should and shouldn’t draft.

The point was to create a formula that could:

1. Help us understand Seattle’s approach to drafting offensive linemen

2. Help us project who the team might consider in this draft class

I’m seeing a lot of comments saying things like, “I disagree with Rob that they should draft this guy” or “I disagree that a 9″ broad jump matters”. This is not the argument we are making.

TEF is based on Tom Cable’s self-confessed ideal physical profile for an offensive lineman. That includes at least a 31 inch vertical, a 9″ broad jump and 27 reps on the bench press. We created a formula that combines all three tests to provide an overall score.

We then used the formula to see if there were any patterns in Seattle’s previous drafts. What we found was Mark Glowinski, Terry Poole, Kristjan Sokoli, Justin Britt, Garrett Scott, Ryan Seymour, Jared Smith, J.R. Sweezy and Gary Gilliam all matched Cable’s physical ideal — with Michael Bowie (a seventh rounder) the only exception.

When we looked specifically at the 2014 and 2015 draft classes, we also saw the Seahawks specifically selected players that fit the ideal and avoided those who didn’t.

For example, there were only five O-liners with a +3.00 TEF score available to the Seahawks last year. They drafted three of them with back-to-back-to-back picks. In 2014 they selected Justin Britt in the late second round and the next player who was ‘TEF enough’ was Garrett Scott — who they also drafted four rounds later.

If you want, you can ignore this evidence and put it down to coincidence. Personally I think that would be a big mistake. There’s significant information here to tell us the Seahawks probably use a more sophisticated albeit similar formula when deciding which offensive linemen to draft. There’s too much consistency in their approach.

When we identified six players who pass the TEF test in this years draft class, we projected they are the ones most likely to be considered by the Seahawks. That is all. It doesn’t mean they’ll be great and other players won’t be. It’s not a performance review. It’s a projection based on what we know about their draft habits since 2012.

If you want to root for another player to be drafted early — feel free. Again, this is not a personal view or opinion — it’s a formula designed to try and help us understand what the Seahawks are doing.

For me only good comes from this. The selection of Justin Britt caused a lot of confusion — TEF has given us a chance to understand it (click here) even if you didn’t agree with the pick. If they take Connor McGovern and Joe Dahl in this class, we can say we saw it coming. And if they break from recent tradition over the last four years, it’ll give us an opportunity to ask questions as to why.

There’s very little reason not to embrace the information here. If it argues against the Seahawks drafting your favourite player — there’s not much I can do about that personally. At least you received the warning so you won’t be too disappointed if, come the end of the month, the Seahawks don’t do what you want them to do.

Finally, we’ve talked about Joel Heath potentially being this years D-line to O-line convert. Sounds like it could be a distinct possibility:

298 Responses to “Podcast, Vernon Butler & the facts on TEF”

  1. TCHawk says:

    The other variable that is on the Seahawks radar is mental makeup and grit. JS mentioned that a couple of years ago that recent picks (I’m reading Moffitt) have led them to re-examine how they fit into their team’s mentality and competitive nature. Rob do you have any info on this aspect for those with high TEF?

    • Rob Staton says:

      Certainly no reason to question the mental make-up of Spriggs, Dahl, McGovern, Ifedi, Haeg. Bring your lunch to work types.

      • Trevor says:

        Agree completely I have not read a negative thing about any of the TEF 6 (Sprigg, Dahl, McGovern, Ifedi, Haeg, Coleman).

        After all the work you have done on this Rob I am almost certain the Hawks will try to draft 2 of these guys in day#1 and day#2. I would actually be shocked if they draft an OL except these 6 in the first 3 rounds.

        • Volume12 says:

          Speaking of Coleman, is he gonna work out for scouts before the draft? i.e. Devontae Booker and Lene Maiava.

        • Naks8 says:

          It also seems to be a tend that the Hawks like lineman from big name schools (except terry Poole). Perhaps they think you need to play the best competition in order to be the best. This makes me wonder if haeg is on the radar or not.

          • Volume12 says:

            And Soko, Bowie, J’Marcus Webb, Scott. Although C-USA, AAC, and the MW aren’t really considered ‘small’ conferences.

            • Naks8 says:

              Sorry, early draft picks (rounds 1-4). You are talking free agents and late round picks and defensive converts. I was referring to the 6 guys rob narrowed it down to which would need to be early picks

        • Ground_Hawk says:

          “The TEF 6.” That should be the name of Quentin Tarantino’s next film.

          • H M Abdou says:

            And it should star the actual TEF 6. Those actual offensive linemen.

            • Robert says:

              Chill’n in East LA as gun fire and screeching tires erupt in the background after a grueling workout in some seedy gym as they work to improve their TEF variables.

            • Ground_Hawk says:

              With The Fabulous Thunderbirds “Tuff Enuff” as the intro song.

          • Richard says:

            I was thinking a Anti-War protesters trial in Chicago of the TEF 6+1 (Coleman).

            I’m showing my age, “The whole world’s watching! The whole world’s watching!”

          • BC_City says:

            Yeah, lol. How about Pete Carroll gets abducted a week before the Draft (by the ruthless Trent Baalke/49ers and Bruce Arians/Cardinals), leaving John Schneider and Tom Cable to recruit the “TEF 6” to get him back on time, or the ’16 Seahawks season will be ruined…Would that work…?

  2. RWIII says:

    Personally I don’t think that Pete Carroll, John Schneider and Tom Cable will break away from the Trench Explosion Formula. They might make an exception but obviously from their track record that would be an exception.

    Rob: Like you said earlier they probably have two players targeted in the first two rounds. One offensive
    lineman. One defensive lineman. Personally it would not hurt my feelings if the first four picks were offensive, defensive lineman. I am a guy who has ALWAYS believe that games are won/lost in the TRENCHES.

  3. vrtkolman says:

    Rob, how would you compare Glowinski as a prospect to that of Dahl/Haeg/McGovern? I know his TEF score is pretty high, plus his tape was good for the most part.

    • Rob Staton says:

      I think Glowinski is/was a bit more explosive than Dahl and Haeg but they have the tackle experience and Haeg in particular shows good mobility. All four share similar traits.

      • vrtkolman says:

        Great, that is pretty good news for Glo then. I have high hopes for him next season after watching his game against Arizona.

        • STTBM says:

          The guys at the Tacoma New Tribune also had good things to say about GLowinsky last year. In fact, they said from his first snap in Mini camp, he looked ready to go, like he belonged in the NFL. They appeared a bit mystified about why he wasnt in the mix for a position on the line.

          Flip side to that was they said the opposite of Poole; he struggled at everything, and looked flat bad.

          Really excited to see what Glowinsky can do this year.

          • Kenny Sloth says:

            Sweezy was still here. He’ll be in the mix this year

            • Cory says:

              Still (and I know they have their size/athletic preferences at LG/RG), Britt could’ve certainly used some competition at RG. He was awful. Really hoping he improves dramatically in year 2 at RG, or gets beaten out by someone that can do the job better. He would be a decent backup for multiple positions.

      • Charles says:

        Where are you getting Haeg’s bench score to do his TEF? I’m not seeing it anywhere =o(

  4. JT says:

    It’s good you clarified TEF again to say what it is – a tool to narrow down which OL’s the Hawks will consider drafting, or at least which one’s they’ll value as much or more than the majority of the league.

    While TEF is incredibly useful in this regard for the offensive line, it is far from complete as an indicator of what the Hawks will do on the defensive line. The reason for this is the Hawks value the agility tests (3-cone & SS) and burst (10 & 40 yard splits) as much as they value explosion at both DT and DE. For that reason, the more comprehensive Sparq rating is much more relevant.

    My research indicates that any DT they draft will will likely have to score 110 or higher in Sparq, any outside-in nickel pass rusher will have to score 125+, and defensive ends at least 115.

    • Rob Staton says:

      I think explosion, 10-yard and the short shuttle is key on the D-line. That’s based on what they’ve done so far.

      Jordan Hill tested well in TEF but also had a 4.51 short shuttle which is good. I doubt he did that well in SPARQ so I’m not completely sold on that being the de facto formula to help us here. I think the guy they ultimately take on the D-line will be explosive, athletic and mobile. That’s why I think Rankins and Butler will appeal so much.

      • JT says:

        My sample of DTs included: Jesse Williams, Jaye Howard & Jordan Hill. It also included the following undrafted players: Francis, Pericak, Levingston, Tyson, D. Smith, McGill. Hill was the lowest of the drafted DT’s at 109 Sparq. The following are the %tiles of the average results of the group in each test, according to mockdraftable.com

        40 yard dash – 79th percentile 10 yard split – 42nd %
        broad jump – 76th % vertical jump – 50th %
        3-cone – 71st % short shuttle – 51st %

        For the most part, this makes sense. The broad jump is probably the Seahawks favourite overall test regardless of position. I think they’d value the 3-cone more than the SS (and this backs that up). The 3-cone is a better test of short area movement to go with change of direction, while SS is pretty much just measures change of direction. Short area movement and flexibility is crucial for defensive linemen. I’m surprised by the 40 vs 10 results, however the drafted players have all been average or better in the 10 yard split.

        • Rob Staton says:

          Nearly all of those guys are undrafted free agents. It’s a bit of a stretch to compare them to a prospect they might be willing to draft in rounds one or two, where they’re going to be look at a very different physical profile.

          • JT says:

            True, although UDFA’s like Gilliam were used in your TEF sample. There simply aren’t that many DT’s to go off of, as they haven’t drafted many.

            All their drafted DT’s tested 109 or higher in Sparq, and the undrafted group averaged a Sparq score of 110. Based on that, I think their minimum for a DT draft pick would have to score at least in that area. Also, the one test minimum I found was a broad jump of at least 8’10”.

          • JT says:

            But it’s pretty clear they value burst & agility (especially the 3-cone) as much as explosion on the DL.

            • Rob Staton says:

              Like I said, nearly all of those guys are UDFA’s. I’m not going to judge what they’d do in rounds 1-2 based on 5-10 UDFA’s. The data your list provides is too weighted towards players who weren’t even picked.

              • JT says:

                It may not determine the type of player they like, but it helps figure out what type of athletic traits they like at the position. Outside-in nickel rushers have had awesome 3-cones (and Sparq scores too) – Clark, Scruggs, McDonald, Dobbs, Schwenke

  5. MJ says:

    Rob – I can understand why people are confused by this, but I think you’ve done an exemplary job of explaining how and why you are emphasizing TEF.

    The point that seems to get lost is that in Football, the better athlete has a bigger margin of error when it comes to performance. And really when you think about it; the mission of building any team is to maximize the margin of error that helps the team lead to victory.

    I think your formula is especially prescient when you emphasize the lack of technical development that most OLs have, coming out of college. If you are going to mold something, why not have the best lump of clay you can find?

  6. unitas77 says:

    Rob did you ever look at the TEF for the new free agent lineman, Webb and Sowell?

    • Rob Staton says:

      Yes, they tested poorly. I think TEF and their philosophy there is 100% based on college-to-NFL projection. Players with tape/evidence of how they handle the NFL are judged differently.

      • Steele says:

        Very true. And also odd, especially when you are talking about marginal pros with spotty histories who are not that experienced.

        Is there a chance that both Webb and Sowell will fail to make the team?

        • Volume12 says:

          Sowell more likely not to I would think.

          Webb seems to be enjoying himself as a Seahawk and looks like he’s in incredible shape.

        • Ground_Hawk says:

          Webb will most likely make the 53, but I’m not sold on Sowell; not that Webb is an elite tackle, but he did start last year for a decent team.

  7. Phil says:

    Rob – you mention that Butler’s TEF score was 3.13, which I assume uses his pro day testing results. What was his score based on the combine? The significant improvements that most players make at their pro days seems to point out one weakness in using TEF scores — some guys just don’t test well at the combine. Maybe some don’t train specifically for the combine and their TEF scores suffer as a result.

    • Ignorant says:

      Pro day.

      They are specially wonderful considering he is measured at 323 lbs with 35″ arms. Just like Ifedi, that has 2.95-ish but is measured at 325 and plays at 335.

      9′ BJ, and 31″+ vert at 320+ is much more amazing than the same numbers on 305 lbs.

    • Rob Staton says:

      And if they don’t do well at the combine we just use the pro day numbers. TEF isn’t focused on the combine.

      • H M Abdou says:

        Phil brought up a good point about basing TEF on combine vs pro day results. Since nearly everyone and their grandmother has good pro day numbers, do you think there should be a way to discount the pro day raw numbers in order to,more fairly, judge TEF metrics apples-to-apples from player to player?

        For example, maybe pro day-based TEF can be discounted by about 20% or so?

        I know on the draft 3000 podcast you were discussing how, in the future, TEF calculation can take account of a players’ height and weight differences.

        • Rob Staton says:

          I don’t think the pro day/combine thing is an issue because ultimately, there’s no fast track for a vertical or broad jump like there is for a pro-day forty yard dash. A bad combine performance can still be improved — I’m pretty comfortable with that.

          • Phil says:

            I don’t think I explained my concern clearly.

            The disparities that we see between combine numbers and pro day numbers point out how much variation there can be in a given player’s measured performance. If a TEF-like formula is being used to separate the players who deserve more study from those that don’t, it seems like it is placing a lot of emphasis on series of measurements that have a good deal of variabilty in them. In a perfect world, I would want to have more reps and then maybe average them before calculating the TEF.

            Having said this, I still think that TEF is a good tool for us amateurs to use to try to forecast who the Seahawks might draft at the OL positions.

            • pqlqi says:

              I don’t think you should worry about it for TEF, since it doesn’t include any hand timed events and there is no homefield advantage to a weightroom like there is with different running surfaces.

              Remember that all of these players are training for several months – they know what their maximums are in each event. If they hit that at the combine, they will not repeat at pro day. If they fall well short of their best at the combine, they will repeat at pro day. Including pro day numbers actually makes the TEF more consistent rather than less. The point is to measure the peak level of athletiticsm in some objective way. The more data you have, the better.

              As for the TEF formula, I don’t think it’s close to what the team uses. They probably have ht/wt/age adjusted percentile ranks for each individual parameter and a similarly adjusted percentile score for global position specific athelticism – which for OL seems to be the three things used to calc TEF (BJ, VJ, BP).

              • Soggyblogger says:

                It seems to me the formula might be tweaked by excluding the BP altogether. Gilliam did poorly in the BP and still had a great SPARQ. BP is as much a measure of training as it is natural ability, while broad jump and vertical jump is something that training affects very little.

                What seems to be forgotten when projecting these players is that we got guys like Gilliam and Sokoli and Glowinski in the 4th round or lower. I can see G. Ifedi at 26, but I also see him projected much lower in average mock drafts, and that makes me think the Seahawks will probably trade down so they can get more players in rounds 3 to 6 where they can probably still get Ifedi, McGovern, Haeg, and a couple of other positions.

  8. STTBM says:

    Bowie was our retiring Personnel Guys pick. Seattle gave him two picks to make, and he chose Bailey and Bowie. Perhaps that explains why Cable never really gave him a shot at LG or RG–aside from Bowie’s attitude issues. He didnt fit Cable’s metrics, even though he performed well in his one start at LG and one start at RG.

  9. Cysco says:

    Hey Rob, Just wanted to bring up my stab at a WTEF score (Weight adjusted TEF) I originally suggested it in the TEF debut thread, but well that thread got crazy.

    anyway, what I suggested was that you take the TEF, multiply it by the weight, then multiply the final number by .1 to get a manageable score. What you end up with is a number that tends to be around 75-100 for most of player I’ve run through this formula. A player that scores over 90 is really explosive for their weight. Anything over 100 is elite. I like this approach because the larger numbers makes the scores a bit easier to compare.

    Jonathan Bullard’s 3.18 TEF at 285 lbs gives him a WTEF of 90.63. Vernon Butler’s 3.13 TEF at 323lbs gives him a far more impressive WTEF of 101.09. (aaron donald’s WTEF would be 101.74)

    I’ve run a good number of players through this weight adjusted TEF formula and the results are really interesting.

    anyway, as always, great stuff. Can’t wait for the draft!

    • Rob Staton says:

      Thanks for the suggestion Cysco. I’ll run it through the draft class and see what the results say.

    • Robert says:

      Good stuff, Cysco!
      I like TEF and still look at measurements outside of it like weight, arm length etc. But I like the way you factored it in there.

    • RWIII says:

      Cysco: Very interesting take. Good stuff.

    • Cysco says:

      Thanks.

      This approach really shows off how crazy Sheldon Rankins really is. His WTEF ends up being 105.24. Only to be out done by Jason Spriggs at 106.55. Those two guys really are in a different league compared to others we’ve talked about over the last month. It also puts Ifedi into a much better light when compared to the other O-line prospects we’ve discussed. It puts him in the top three for o-line WTEF scores for this year behind Spriggs and McGovern.

      It also shows why the team drafted Sokoli. I wouldn’t be surprised if he has the highest WTEF in the entire league at 112.5

      • Willyeye says:

        I’m just curious if you think the bench press would have any effect on your WTEF…obviously guys that weigh more should be able to bench more.

    • Kenny Sloth says:

      Yes you rock cysco

    • CharlieTheUnicorn says:

      I would rather make it simple, not complicated.

      Broad Jump (in Inches)
      (In inches automatically weighs the score heavily in this formula, without multiplying or dividing and other silly manipulations of the data)
      Verticle Jump (in Inches)
      Bench Press (in Reps)
      (Maybe just add the SPARQ score to the cumulative total from the “TEF” score….)
      You end up with a score around 200 points (roughly). You then have a score that 1) shows OL with potential (TEF) and 2) then it further emphasizes the athleticism by mixing in SPARQ.

      A great tool, to tease out the OL gems of the draft class.

      • Cysco says:

        I think Rob’s formula is pretty close to spot on. All I tried to do was factor in the player’s weight. If two players come in at the same TEF, I feel it’s more impressive if one of the players comes in at 40-50lbs heavier. All things being equal, I’d say the player that weighs more but puts up the same numbers is the better athlete.

        • Rob Staton says:

          I put all of the O-line and D-line class through Cysco’s suggestion. For the most part the results are pretty similar to TEF. Ifedi receives a small boost — he’s eighth in TEF but fourth in the new calculation. I think the most interesting thing it’s done is move Sheldon Rankins even further away from the rest of the interior D-liners. Here’s how he compares:

          Sheldon Rankins: 105.2
          Aaron Donald: 103.4
          Geno Atkins: 106.9
          Ndamukong Suh: 100.6

          Not bad company.

          It also further highlights that while Jonathan Bullard’s tape is fun to watch — in terms of explosion and size he’s kind of middle of the pack with the Hassan Ridgeway’s and Willie Henry’s. Those three are closely aligned. The only place Bullard really has the edge is forty and ten yard times. That might get him above the other two — but will it get him into R1?

          I’ll do a piece on this tomorrow.

          • Kenny Sloth says:

            Nice look forward to it

            • RealRhino2 says:

              Yes, interesting stuff. Question I have, esp. with respect to OL, is whether it matters all that much. Meaning the added weight-based calculation. For the most part, this TEF idea in actual practice (meaning not just for deducing who the Seahawks might draft, but whether it’s a useful indicator of performance) seems to work best for tackles. Tackles generally need to move greater distances quickly (and have lateral short-burst quickness relative to interior guys).

              So I’ve been thinking of TEF as essentially a movement score, i.e., how well guys move. But if one guy is 308 and gets to spot A while another guy is 324 and gets to spot A, I’m not sure how much it really matters that one guy does it at a heavier weight. I suppose they might be more stout against a bull rush, but how much?

              • RealRhino2 says:

                Meant to add I think this could be particularly useful for DL. They don’t just have to get in a guy’s way (I know there’s more to OL play than that), they have to go *through* somebody. So yeah, if a 324-lb. guy can motor as well as a guy at 285, sign me up!

              • Robert says:

                I think it’s more about moving a dlineman to open a running lane.

                • RealRhino2 says:

                  But then you’d think more great guards and centers would be high-TEF guys, but they aren’t. The tackles are.

                  • Kenny Sloth says:

                    Some guys were talking about retooling TEF to include agility tests for DL, as well as weight and arm length.

                    Would love to see those results if we have any mathletes among our ranks.

          • Ukhawk says:

            Rob. Burning question…

            With Suh and Donald not only the athleticism but also the production was there to see. They literally blew guys up. With Atkins he was a bit of an under performer in D1 but had the athleticism hence he went later. Isn’t Rankins underperformance in the2nd half not concerning for a 1st round prospect. This is the point with the TEF, I think it is great esp for later round guys but certainly you want to see production for higher round guys as well as athleticism. For example, Spence’s measurables aren’t the best it they are way better than say Clemons however both are ultra productive.

  10. Saxon says:

    As a predictor of what the Hawks may prioritize athletically, TEF seems like a good tool. As a formula for establishing an athletic baseline that an athlete must achieve in order to be considered draftable, TEF is flawed. If a certain level of athleticism is demanded, there are going to be better, more productive players that we will miss on every year.

    The Raiders were notorious for drafting stopwatch athletes instead of players with better resumes and better technique. Where did that get them? They have been the worst franchise in the NFL over the last 15+ years, and only began improving once Al Davis died and his track-athlete philosophy was buried with him. I know JS/PC look at the total picture: measurables, intangibles, character – but I hope they don’t toss certain guys – like Ryan Kelly – in the “Do Not Draft” dumpster, because of a a few inches of a broad jump.

    One last thing, I love this blog and check it daily. I am astonished at the amount of content that Rob produces – free of charge. Rob is an excellent writer and we’re lucky he wound up a Hawk fan. With that said, one criticism: Rob, you have a tendency to belabor one point or one player sometimes. I’ve been coming here the last three years and I’ve noticed this tendency every year. You are just one guy doing this as a hobby, plus you have a day job, so I can’t fault you for not watching more tape and giving more opinions on a wider variety of players. Just want to suggest, hyper-critical a-hole that I am, that you maybe recruit a couple more guest writers to address other positions outside OL/DL. The community does a good job bringing some of these guys to our attention and there are plenty of other draft sites, etc. but I prefer this one.

    Anyway, it’s a minor gripe and I truly do appreciate your hard work and talent. If you add a “DONATE” button I’ll prove that 🙂

    • STTBM says:

      I feel the same way Saxon, regarding TEF, etc. But it would appear Rob has pretty much nailed a big part of how they form a pool of potential draftees along the line. The results havent been great, but its not a total failure either. I think Poole, Glowinsky and Sokoli are a major litmus test for TEF, Cable, and the Seahawks overall philosophy on the line. Two of the three need to work out very well to justify it. Im not holding my breath on Poole, Glowinsky I firmly believe in, and Sokoli is still a project and an unknown, so it remains to be seen…

      • Robert says:

        For me, Sokoli looked raw last pre-season. He would struggle with technique and assignments. But occasionally, he would completely physically overwhelm his man with speed and/or power and provide a glimpse of his tantalizing upside. Glowinski had no flash in preseason or regular season vs Arizona. But he appeared very consistent and reliable with his assignments and technique. Poole just looked lackluster with technique and assignment issues while being overwhelmed by faster and stronger players than he’ll ever be. That’s how those 3 appeared to me in limited views.I remain hopeful that all 3 will be great and would be happy to bet on Glowinski and Sokoli!

    • Rob Staton says:

      “As a predictor of what the Hawks may prioritize athletically, TEF seems like a good tool. As a formula for establishing an athletic baseline that an athlete must achieve in order to be considered draftable, TEF is flawed.”

      But this is why I wrote this piece today. At no point have I ever claimed it is a formula for establishing an athletic baseline. It is purely and simply, 100% a tool to project Seattle’s draft plans for the offensive line. That’s it.

      When people tell me it doesn’t do this or it doesn’t do that — I plant my face firmly in my hands. I have absolutely no idea why people are so determined to create these ideas for TEF. It is what it is — a tool for projecting the O-line. We occasionally use it for the defense just to get a gauge because at the end of the day — the O-liners are facing the D-liners. But nobody is using TEF alone to judge the D-line class. It’s just an accessory.

      As for a tendency to belabor one point or player — I’m not immune to criticism at all but I think that is incredibly harsh. If I had time I would show you a list of all the players we’ve gone into major detail on or praised. We’ve talked about TEF for a week not half a year. I’ve mocked about ten different players to the Seahawks in round one since September alone. Only today we’re considering Vernon Butler. When’s the last time we talked about him?

      Contrast that to the people or pundits who can never see beyond one or two guys or worse still — pick their favourite guy, become cheerleaders for that player and then act like a spoilt brat when the team takes somebody else.

      One of the great things about this blog IMO is I can project Jason Spriggs and Joe Haeg to the Seahawks in one blog post and then voice my concerns about both players in another. I’ve gone out of my way not to have favourites since 2012 because I kept getting things wrong with that approach.

      • Coug1990 says:

        Amen Rob. It has been quite clear how you were using the TEF formula you created. Yet, people want to complain at you regarding their own incorrect interpretation again, and again, and again…

        Just keep on being you Rob, Thanks.

        • RealRhino2 says:

          To be fair to Saxon and others, though, when you claim *why* the team is doing it or that it is smart for the team to do so, you are at least indirectly making a claim beyond just that it can be used to predict Seahawks draft behavior.

      • Ground_Hawk says:

        Right on Rob! Your work on the TEF formula has been great, and I think by and large is greatly appreciated. As far as the Seahawks possible draft plans it seems likely that they use some similar formula to evaluate their o-line interests. The issue that I think some have with it is that it doesn’t factor in skill, but that is something that is best measured through viewing game tape, and even then it us still a qualitative measure and difficult to determine with certainty. Your idea with TEF seems to fit the Seattle Seahawks preferences, not necessarily the other 31 teams in the league, but I wouldn’t be surprised if some did. Thanks again for your work!

      • Tien says:

        Rob,

        You did a great job explaining the TEF and its purpose initially and if some of us misunderstood it, this clarifying column should clear up the confusion.

        Keep doing what you’re doing and I don’t think you belabor certain players on this blog at all. We’ve had multiple articles on potential WR prospects/Will Fuller, RBs/Derrick Henry, LBs/Deonne Jones, Safeties/Keanu Neal, along with the in-depth analysis of the OL & DL. We have had more articles on the OL/DL prospects but you know what, it’s clearly the Hawks’ greatest needs this offseason so I (and probably many others) would much rather spend more time on these prospects than discussing the relative merits of CBs available this year, given that it’s unlikely we’ll draft any of them (if at all) high. Thanks for all your hard work and well-written articles and like many others, I check this site multiple times a day!

      • Saxon says:

        Rob, I’m a big fan of yours and apologize if my criticism seemed harsh. I guess it’s that we’ve justifiably spilled gallons of ink talking about the trench prospects, since OL/DL are the largest areas for concern, and haven’t had the time to look at prospects at other positions – like developmental QB, blocking TE, slot CBs, etc. I know you’ve written about a lot of other guys. Maybe it just gets lost in your chronological blog post format.

        Anyway, please don’t let me discourage you. You’ve created a great resource and built up a tremendous community and we all appreciate it.

      • bigDhawk says:

        I get that TEF as a predictor of Seahawks OL personnel preference and whether that preference is a winning formula are two different discussions. I would, however, be interested in having the latter discussion, if not here, then at some point, maybe in a dedicated blog post at a later time.

        The Seahawks OL formula sounds reasonable enough – fighting athleticism with athleticism. However, I’m still skeptical that this is a viable Win Forever strategy when stretched to the point of eschewing years of college OL experience in favor of starting DL converts with no OL experience, all for the sake of a few fractions of inches and seconds.

        Kudos to Rob for identifying a trend in how the Seahawks select their O-linemen. At some point, maybe after the draft, that OL philosophy needs to be scrutinized because so far, it has produced at best questionable results.

        • Rob Staton says:

          But how many DL converts have actually started so far? A seventh rounder who actually locked down a starting job for several years.

          I’m not sure we have any evidence to say whether that is a good or bad plan yet. And in fairness, guys like Glowinski and the players we expect them to draft this year have played OL in college.

          • bigDhawk says:

            But how many DL converts have actually started so far? A seventh rounder who actually locked down a starting job for several years…

            and a DL center convert that arguably cost us the first half of last season. Scrutinizing our OL personnel philosophy a fair discussion to have, otherwise we would not be talking about the OL being our biggest draft need this season.

    • Steele says:

      “there are going to be better, more productive players that we will miss on every year.”

      Saxon, I think this is true. Not only in terms of TEF, but arm length and other things that, if taken to the extreme, become too important. But this seems to be what the Seahawks have done and will continue to do under JSPC Cable.

  11. Darth12er says:

    I’m home, I’m bored, interesting note

    http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000652173/article/wentz-goff-lead-25-prospects-attending-2016-nfl-draft

    Rankins was not invited to the draft

    • Rob Staton says:

      I believe this is a list of attendees, not necessarily a list of those who were invited.

      For example, I imagine Derrick Henry was invited but has likely turned it down.

      • Volume12 says:

        Exactly.

        Some guys would rather be surrounded by family and friends and watch from home.

        And if a guy doesn’t accept the invite, it also doesn’t mean he’s not passionate about the game or doesn’t love it as certain people have mentioned.

      • Darth12er says:

        Yes, thanks. That makes far more sense.

    • ItsAboutTheDefense says:

      Nkemdiche was!

      • Rob Staton says:

        If Mr. Nkemdiche hasn’t watched the Walking Dead, he might want to download series one on his Ipad. He’ll be in for a long wait on draft day…

        • southpaw360 says:

          Haha!! That cracked my up!

        • H M Abdou says:

          LOL!!! Walking Dead 😀

          I will say this for Bob Nkemdiche: I think while he’s on his rookie contract, he’ll be a stud. He will be well-motivated, with a big chip on his shoulder, hungry to prove his “haters” wrong.

          After he gets his 2nd contract, all bets are off. I think then that the wheels are going to fall off as he loses focus and hangs out with the wrong people.

          But initially I think his nose will be on the grindstone.

  12. lenny j says:

    Rob, Any way we could get a real time message board similar to field gulls?

    • Rob Staton says:

      Unfortunately we’re stuck with the WordPress standard. There are ‘Plugins’ you can get that provide a different format but they’re a bit hit and miss. The current system is not ideal but SB Nation have produced a really good system for their blogs and there’s nothing that similar to it available here.

  13. Ignorant says:

    Any thoughts on James Bradberry? He seems a value pick at 5th or 6th round comp.

    • CharlieTheUnicorn says:

      He has the size Seattle likes and will be right in their “preferred” draft position to take a project CB….. he is #1 on my list in the round 5 or 6 range for Seattle to take with a draft pick.

      • H M Abdou says:

        Yup, I personally am intrigued by Bradberry as well.

      • Ignorant says:

        What strikes me on his tape is how comfortable he seems to be plaing zone coverage, how he’s never out of position in run support and his excellent work back to attack the short passing. There’s a lot of Brandon Browner in him.

        • Ignorant says:

          And how you definitely can see he has 33.4″ arms when you watch his tape. He made pretty impressive tackles on his tape available on DraftBreakdown.

  14. Rik says:

    Here’s a nice write-up on Akron LB Jatavis Brown:

    http://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/2016-nfl-mock-drafts-profiles-video-clips-highlights-steelers-analysis-breakdowns-news/2016/4/11/11398474/steelers-2016-draft-prospect-breakdown-akron-linebacker-jatavis-brown

    He’s described as an incredibly fast, explosive athlete. I could see him in the “deathbacker” role for Seattle.

    • Rik says:

      12 sacks, 1 interception, and 4 forced fumbles his senior year at WILL LB. And a 4.47 40 at 222 lbs.

    • Trevor says:

      One of my favourite prospects in the entire draft. Would love him to be the 4th or 5th round! Undersized fast playmaker with a monster sized chip on his shoulder. Sounds like a Seahawks to me.

    • Ground_Hawk says:

      He would be an awesome pick for Seattle, in the rounds that you suggest. Almost 350 career tackles at Akron, and tested very well athletically.

  15. ItsAboutTheDefense says:

    Have you heard much buzz about Roberto Aguayo, K , FSU, Rob. At one point he was touted as one of the best kickers in NCAA History. Daniel Jeremiah has said he won’t leave the 3rd Round undrafted.
    Could the Seahawks consider him?

    • Rob Staton says:

      Not as early as that I imagine. Would they consider him on day three? Maybe. Hausch’s contract is big and expires after this year.

      • ItsAboutTheDefense says:

        Budget does come into play, doesn’t it?
        I noticed that Sowell is learning to Long Snap. If he succeeds, it means the Seahawks have opened a bonus Roster spot. That guy would need to be paid as well.
        What position group gets another Man? Do the Seahawks look for this Player in the Draft?

        • badjujus says:

          Sowell I believe has been a long snapper learning it a year + ago.

          Really dont gain a spot on the roster because we already have lost a spot from losing Bruce and Tukuafu.

          Bruce effectively took 2 positions that will need to be filled 2 players…

          Look to see if we continue using a fullback to see if we snag a roster spot there.

  16. Nathan says:

    Unfortunately, I think you’re dealing with people who get a 3rd of the way down the article, then jump down to the comments section and start firing away.

    I’m guilty of doing it myself, especially if it’s a long article, I always make sure I go back and read afterwards.

  17. Trail Hawk says:

    Mock draft 1.0 for me. Let me know what you think.

    Ifedi is of the board by 26. Dallas takes a QB with their 2nd pick. We swap with them 56 for 67 and 101. With this, Dallas will have a chance to move back into the 2nd round and get a player who’s not a developmental QB.

    With a gauntlet of playoff teams between pick 56 and 67, including New England twice I see this as a realistic scenario.

    Without the trade it would remain the same however, picks at 101 will move to 97, 67 reverts back to 56 with the position remaining the same (take the best DL available). Also, depending on the flow our 2nd pick could be OL and 3rd pick as a DL. Let the draft come to you.

    26 – WR Will Fuller – first round grade and talent.
    67 – DL Willie Henry/Hassan Ridgeway/Javon Hargrave/Ronald Blair III – explains itself
    91 – OL Conner McGovern/Shon Coleman/Joe Dahl/Joe Haeg – explains itself
    97 – OLB Jaylon Smith – he lasts to the 4th. We take with our 3rd comp.
    101 – OL Joe Dahl/Joe Haeg – thank you Dallas, we got our guy plus Jaylon Smith
    124 – DE/OLB Tyrone Holmes/James Cowser – if Jaylon is gone at 97 we take Holmes there/Cowser’s a stud
    171 – CB Daryl Worley – improved his 40 at pro day. Intelligent well spoken kid.
    215 – RB Darius Jackson – 4.35 speed, great power and tough. Tougher in the trenches includes RB
    225 – DE/DT/FB Lawrence Thomas – tremendous upside, plays inside and out
    247 – TE Anthony Norris – Gilliam 2.0

    UFA – DL Ufomba Kamalu, QB/RB Keenan Reynolds, NT Vincent Valentine, OL Joe Thuney, G Landon Turner, RB Tra Carson, K Jaden Oberkrom, P Drew Kaser

    The top names are well known. I’m including some info on the lesser knowns.

    Tyrone Holmes 6’2, 253 #s, 32″ arms and 9 1/2 hands. Pro day – 40y 4.59, 10y 1.65, TEF 37 1/2, 9’5″, 28 for 3.42, shuttle 4.30 and 3 cone 7.00. He’s #91 going against the right tackle in these clips.

    https://gfycat.com/PitifulAcclaimedAmericanshorthair

    https://gfycat.com/EnchantedBraveCurlew

    https://gfycat.com/WildHopefulIrrawaddydolphin

    James Cowser 6’3″, 248 #s, 32 7/8 arms and 10 1/4 hands. Pro day – 40y 4.69, 10y* ?, TEF 34, 9’8″, 24 for 3.26, shuttle 4.31, 3 cone 6.80**.

    * ran 4.82, 20y 2.82 and 10y 1.68 at the combine. With an improvement of .12 seconds his new 10y must be closer to 1.6. ** Best 3 cone at the combine for DL, 7th for shuttle.
    A patriots highlight video and an interview where he comes off like how a young Pete Carroll might be. Very intelligent.

    http://www.patriots.com/video/2016/02/12/2016-draft-prospects-james-cowser-de-southern-utah

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=C1KxGYl0i9U

    Darryl Worley 6’1″, 204 #s, 33 3/8 arms and 10 1/4 hands. Pro day – 40y 4.5, vert 35 1/2 and broad 10’3″. Good interview.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-VwPsILnE_k

    http://watch.scout.com/wvu-cornerback-daryl-worley-reviews-pro-day-nfl-draft-process

    Darius Jackson 6’1″, 220#s. Pro day 40y 4.35 and 4.38, vert 41, broad 11’1″, shuttle 4.27 and 3 cone 6.82. Rob had an excellent video/write up of him a few weeks ago, here’s a link.

    http://seahawksdraftblog.com/exclusive-darius-jackson-highlights-lsu-tape

    Lawrence Thomas 6’3″, 286#s, 33 1/4 arms and 10 1/8 hands. 40y 4.98, 10y 1.73, TEF 35, 9’5″, 24 for 3.19, shuttle 4.58 and 3 cone 7.53. Combine interview and some highlights plus Iowa game.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hTTB24MOkpQ

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2hIwS4uHmPk

    Anthony Norris 6’5″, 250#s*. Pro days 40y 4.90, TEF 39, 10’11”, 24 for 3.97**, shuttle 4.64 and 3 cone 7.26.

    *250 was his playing weight. He’s bigger now and has a frame that can handle more. Admitted in an interview that it’s hard to keep his weight down. Has long arms. He jumps at about the 19 minute mark and runs at about 40 minute mark. ** With one more rep on the bench press he’s a 4.0 TEF.

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=lHuk9Lo1d6M

    • Trevor says:

      Some interesting ideas and I really like some of the picks.

    • Del tre says:

      I love the darius Jackson pick I think the Hawks will want him he is very much like Rawls but faster

      • Trail Hawk says:

        Same here, really want Jackson. Also would love Tra Carson as an UFA. He’s tough as nails, lowers his shoulder and makes you regret taking him on. Excellent hands. A third down back the defense will feel the next day.

    • bigDhawk says:

      I agree Worley looks good on paper. I watched some game tape, though, and he is not much of a run defender, and not especially physical overall for his size. He plays off the line a lot in WVU’s scheme and does not appear to be a physical force in press coverage. That said, his stat sheet is intriguing enough to take a late round flyer.

      • Trail Hawk says:

        Was thinking Bradbury at first but he’ll be off the board by the fifth. Probably early fourth. We’re set nicely for the DB position. Hard to see a CB pick any earlier.

    • STTBM says:

      My two cents; if Seattle were to shock everyone here and draft a WR in the first, I personally dont see Fuller fitting the bill. They like Treadwell, but the only guy I see being worth their pick who MIGHT be there is Doctson. Fuller projects to be more Kenny Stills than DeSean Jackson. Either way, he doesnt seem to be different enough from Richardson and Lockett to warrant Seattle adding him to the WR corps.

      I like the DL guys, especially Hargrave. The only way Smith lasts that long is if he’s very likely got severe nerve damage; if he falls that far, then he wont be worth taking at any spot. I would be happy with any combo of McGovern, Dahl, Haeg. Not sure about Coleman.

      Holmes is a guy I’d flat love to see Seattle pick up. As Ive said before. And Worley seems like a good bet at DB.

      I think they look for a Hybrid LB/SS type to try backing up Kam and at SAM or WILL. Also, it appears they are looking at Willson-Type TE’s as well as the more traditional TE, Vannett. I think they take a TE or two, or at least draft Vannett and go after a Move TE as an UDFA.

  18. 12er says:

    Here’s a list of the prospects attending the draft:

    CB Eli Apple, Ohio State
    DE Joey Bosa, Ohio State
    DT Vernon Butler, Louisiana Tech
    WR Corey Coleman, Baylor
    OT Jack Conklin, Michigan State
    OT Taylor Decker, Ohio State
    WR Josh Doctson, Texas Christian
    DE Kevin Dodd, Clemson
    RB Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State
    QB Jared Goff, California
    CB Vernon Hargreaves, Florida
    LB Myles Jack, UCLA
    DT Chris Jones, Mississippi State
    DE Shaq Lawson, Clemson
    LB Darron Lee, Ohio State
    S Keanu Neal, Florida
    DT Robert Nkemdiche, Mississippi
    LB Reggie Ragland, Alabama
    CB Jalen Ramsey, Florida State
    DT Jarran Reed, Alabama
    DT A’Shawn Robinson, Alabama
    OT Ronnie Stanley, Notre Dame
    WR Laquon Treadwell, Mississippi
    OT Laremy Tunsil, Mississippi
    QB Carson Wentz, North Dakota State

  19. CharlieTheUnicorn says:

    There’s very little reason not to embrace the information here. If it argues against the Seahawks drafting your favourite player — there’s not much I can do about that personally. At least you received the warning so you won’t be too disappointed if, come the end of the month, the Seahawks don’t do what you want them to do. ~ Rob

    The more information you have or can acquire, the more you can understand a player ~ Pete Carroll

    I think of TEF as a tool, to eliminate some players off the bat. Why spend time on guys who are not in the TEF 3.0 range, when Seattle has shown over and over and over they frankly won’t pick a SPARQ (CB, LB, RB etc) or TEF (OL or DL) deficient player. What is left are the highly likely targets….. a hundred or so players, instead of the thousand or more to choose from…. this is smart and efficient use of limited scouting resources.

    • Ground_Hawk says:

      Well said!

    • Phil says:

      Even if the Seahawks don’t use a TEF-like formula, it is a useful tool for Rob and his readers to try to separate the extraordinary athletes at the OL positions from the ordinary ones. Rob doesn’t have time to evaluate everyone who is declared for the draft, and by focusing on those with exceptional TEF scores, it is likely that he will evaluate those most likely to be drafted. I don’t want to read about guys who are somebody’s favorite, but don’t have the measurables to be drafted by the Seahawks.

  20. Scraps says:

    Do you read fivethirtyeight.com, Rob? I’m curious how Nate Silver would feel about TEF: specifically, retro-fitting. It seems to me TEF is a good fit, yet it does look like retro-fitting. I’m not a math-head, though, at all.

    • Lewis says:

      Not familiar with the site, but if by retro-fitting you mean that Rob has attempted to create a model that fits the players they have drafted, then yes, that is exactly what he has done and he never claimed otherwise.

      I can’t stress this enough: we do not know the actual formula they use or what weight they place on different measurements.

      Read that last statement again. I’ll wait.

      Now, it wasn’t completely blind, either, because he had the statement made by Cable that has been quoted multiple times. But the formula is an attempt to approximate whatever model it is they use with the hope that it has some predictive value in identifying not who they will take, but which players they might be looking at most closely, so we can study them and get familiar with them ahead of time.

  21. Volume12 says:

    I thought it was interesting that back on Jan. 30th, right around the Senior Bowl, LA Tech DT Vernon Butler said that one of the teams showing the most interest in him was Seattle. Then the pro day, dinner meeting before or after, and now the VMAC visit.

    Love the fact that he also considers himself the best DT in this class and said he’s a top 10 talent. Not lacking in the confidence department, which is needed inside that locker room.

    Whether they select him or not, there does seem to be some genuine interest from Seattle.

    • Rob Staton says:

      Agreed — and I like his character. His interviews are fun. He seems to love the game.

      We have to consider him now as a legit option.

      • Volume12 says:

        Absolutely.

        Good point about his interviews and apparent love for football. Comfortable in front of the camera, witty,, southern drawl, just seems to have this magnetic personality. Very entertaining.

        Said today, ‘I’m your favorite players, favorite player.’ Made me laugh. Cocky SOB!

        • Rob Staton says:

          Only issue for me is speed/agility. Mo Wilkerson wasn’t fast but he’s damn quick. Wilkerson ran a 7.31 three cone and a 4.59 short shuttle at 315lbs. Butler didn’t get anywhere near those numbers and quickness, IMO, might be a weakness for him at the next level if he’s ever going to be more than a space eater or mild disruptor.

          • Kenny Sloth says:

            Good point Rob, and even though he got penetration, he often failed to finish in the backfield due to a lack of agility/lateral agility perhaps?
            Played all over their line though

            • DC says:

              If Butler gets penetration he’s going to disrupt and drive the opposing QB into the loving arms of Clark, Avril & Bennett.

              • C-Dog says:

                Yup. Disruption is key. Get the QB throwing and moving when he isn’t ready.

              • Kenny Sloth says:

                Totally true. I mostly meant in the run game He impacts the play for sure, but impact and production are different things for a reason. I just want him to finish guys off or get to the QB more. It may be indicative of a deeper problem with footspeed, but i seriously doubt it. It’s a combination of the program, playing too high (doesn’t sink his hips), and his disengaging technique isn’t where it could be.

                Love him and he might be my new crush for 26 neex more tape study but

                That’s a fun guy to watch.

          • Jarhead says:

            One thing to consider would be who that comparison is. Wilkerson is one of the best DTs in the game. That is a lofty thing to expect in the back half if the first round. We have two of the best DEs in the NFL, so all we need is someone explosive and strong enough to push the pocket and force interior pressure consistently. We don’t need Cortez Kennedy from 1991. I think if we help woth interior pressure, our amazing DEs can wreak havoc and we would start generating more TOs like 2013 and 2014. We don’t need Aaron Donald, we just need someone capable of pushing the interior

          • Willyeye says:

            I think athletically Butler does not warrant a #26 pick…I don’t believe his athletic weakness will let him transition to being a successful player in the NFL. Butler seemed really slow even at the college level.

    • Trevor says:

      Agree completely! I was not a huge fan originally but the more I dig into this guy the more I like.

      In my post combine / pro day mock I had the Hawks going Butler Rd#1 and McGovern Rd#2.

      • Kenny Sloth says:

        I’m a sucker for guys with untapped potential

        • Lewis says:

          Amen to that

        • Volume12 says:

          And he has that in spades.

          He’s a dog on the field man. Plays hungry and wants to lead.

          • Kenny Sloth says:

            Totally jumps on top of gang tackles and brings the pain. Really comparable to Bullard in that regard. He feeds on momentum, but i am developing concerns about his endurance probably from the smaller school weight training program.

            Imagine the top fifteen pick we’d be talking about had he gone to Miss state or one of the other top programs that offered him.

            I think Louisiana tech has filed that they have spent and earned the exact same amount on their football program every year for the last couple of years. Meaning zero profit or deficit.

      • C-Dog says:

        Butler & McGovern would be an excellent draft, IMO.

  22. nichansen01 says:

    Right now I am a little confused on Akron linebacker Jatavis Brown’s draft stock. Are we talking third rounder, fourth rounder, or a guy the Seahawks could target at the end of the fourth?

    • Trevor says:

      I was thinking 4th round but if we go OL/DL in rounds 1 and 2. I would be happy with Tyler Ervin and Jatavius Brown in Rd #3 but I would prefer Brown in Rd #4.

    • Rik says:

      He’s had meetings with 5 teams, including the Steelers who seem really enthusiastic about him. His athleticism and productivity may mean teams will have to pick him earlier rather than later. I’m thinking 4th round but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go in the 3rd.

  23. MJ says:

    A thought on the idea of a “Weighted TEF”:

    What if it’s as simple as making 300 lbs the bench mark?

    Convert 300 lbs to 3.00 (unintentionally matches TEF “baseline” of 3.0).

    [(Players weight DIVDED by 100) LESS 3.00] ADD TEF = wTEF

    • MJ says:

      In this circumstance; a player like Vernon Butler gets a modifier of +.24 while Jonathan Bullard has a modifier of -.15.

      This seems like a pretty fair compromise to me. 300 lbs seems like an easy/logical bench mark for weight. Also ties in nicely to the formula without having to make any major adjustments.

      • MJ says:

        Sorry for the excessive run on this thing; but I think this makes a lot of sense. Realistically, if you are 290-310, you are not affected much by this modifier.

        For example; Spriggs and Rankins are virtually unaffected by this modifier (due to weighing close to 300) but players like Butler and Ifedi are, which may further cement Seattle’s perceived interest.

        Just a thought.

    • MJ says:

      Rob, I’m curious to see how this formula would work for Defensive Ends that are in the 250+ range. Any chance you could give that a go to see how that ties into TEF?

      • MJ says:

        Emmanuel Ogbah TEF & wTEF:

        VJ – 35.5 / 31 = 1.145
        BJ – 10.1 / 9 _ cubed = 1.413
        BP – 20 / 27 = .740
        TEF = 3.298
        wTEF = 3.028

        Interesting. I’m sure that an outside rusher needs to include 3 cone and 10 yard split. Still fun to play with.

    • Charles says:

      I do something similar to that with my TEF+ model using both weight base of 300lbs and 32inch arms for the bench.

      Here is a spreadsheet of it so far with Rob’s TEF, my TEF+, and Cysco’s WTEF

      https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pm5ps2ZmnFOb15eZ8CEPWydxnk1YA_4Zxep57vMQdGg/edit?usp=sharing

      I’m noticing that it should mainly be used for OL’s and DTs, since the 300lb baseline seems a bit extreme for the lighter DE’s who rely on speed more than just explosiveness. Will have to figure that out. Anyway, lemme know what you think.

      • schuemansky says:

        Great work. Thank you. That’s what us numbers guys were waiting for.

        Just added the numbers for Justin Zimmer. I gave him T-Rex arms of 31′ because I couldn’t find the real value.
        He is absolutely of the charts. I know … small school, probably short arms … but he still beats them all, past and present, TEF wise.

        • Charles says:

          Where did you add Justin Zimmer? If you want me to add anyone, just put their info in a reply and ill put all the info in.

        • Charles says:

          Added him to the sheet, also found out Zimmer’s measurables… 10 1/8 hands, 31 5/8 arms

      • MJ says:

        Awesome! I apologize I missed that from above before I posted.

  24. Kip Earlywine says:

    Le’Raven Clark at his pro-day:

    Bench Press: 18 reps

    Vertical Jump: 30″ (pro day)

    Broad Jump: 9’1″ (pro day)

    Broad jump, good. Vert, good for his size. Bench, not good. But remember, he has the longest arms of any OL in the draft, and long arms hinder bench press.

    I’m sure Tom Cable values Bench Press, but as pointed out before, only 8 of the 23 OL acquired by Tom Cable in Seattle managed 27 reps or more. Both of the free agents Seattle signed to play tackle managed less than 20 reps and also had long arms. Garry Gilliam also had low reps with long arms. There is growing evidence that Cable likes bench press on interior OL but with his tackles he strongly prefers arm length even at the expense of bench press.

    Also, and this is just my opinion, but watching Clark’s tape I think he plays with pretty good upper body strength.

    Clark does have issues, but so does every OL Cable goes after. If anything, I see Clark as the epitome of a Tom Cable tackle, even if he (like many previous Cable OL) fails break 3.00 TEF.

    • Kenny Sloth says:

      Thats a pretty pathetic bench. I think they like guys that want to go out and earn their numbers. Especially Cable. He suggests they don’t want underperformers in workouts.

      It’s an audition and i don’t hire guys that don’t bring it.

  25. Josh emmett says:

    I’ve been reading about All the arguments everybody has for TEF. The Hawks never seem to take the guys at the top of the TEF list because they are usually gone by the time Seattle picks. I think it’s more useful for the Hawks when the top rated prospects are gone in the later rounds so they don’t have to use their early picks on Oliners and can draft guys that can impact the game by getting their hands on the ball or sacking the QB with the ball. It’s all about the ball. They use a formula similar to this to draft sweezy, glowinski, and Gilliam but there are swings and misses like Britt and Poole so far. They take these guys with the knowledge that they may sink or swim but a least they will be able to compete at a high level because of their athleticism. Where teams are taking shots in the dark on guys who had a couple good games on tape Seattle is taking prospects with supioror athletic ability and puts it their coaches to get them where they need to be. You have seen a gradual increase in skill from players like Carp, Sweezy, and Giacomini. I’m excited for Britt this year as he has had a difficult start to his career like Carp and Sweezy. With that being said I still expect them to go defense in the first round and will target McGovern(he is a high TEF but also is a guard/center prospect so will naturally be drafted later)and Dahl or both in rounds 2/3 and leave with a tackle project in the later rounds. I Love this blog rob, thanks!

  26. Kenny Sloth says:

    Hakeem Valles 6’4 243 wr to TE convert out of Monmouth worked out for Hawks yesterday.

    Luke Willson is a free agent after this season, he’ll likely resign, but Seattle loves to hedge for FA a year early to get rookies acclimated

    • STTBM says:

      Thats a good find. I didnt think Seattle would be looking for lighter TE’s who arent great at blocking, but apparently they are. I liked the other TE from BYU better–Plus he’s from Enumclaw WA where my Mother in Law lives. So Im rooting for him. He may get drafted though, and Seattle may not be able to land him–if so, then the kid from Monmouth has similar attributes, just lesser production.

  27. CharlieTheUnicorn says:

    This is from Field gulls, a brief run down of known prospects the Seahawks have talked to, worked with or visited in the last few weeks.

    Seattle Seahawks

    2015 record: (10-6)
    Top Needs: OL, DE/DT, OLB

    – DT Vernon Butler visiting the Seahawks on 4/11. (Rapoport)
    – TE Hakeem Valles worked out for Seahawks on 4/11. (Aaron Wilson)
    – WR Daniel Braverman had a private workout with the Seahawks. (Getlin)
    – RB Tyler Ervin met with Seahawks at his Pro Day. (Pauline)
    – A workout ran by Tom Cable was held for German Ifedi. (Aaron Wilson)
    – Seahawks may have interest in OL Joe Dahl and OL Josh Garnett. (Condotta)
    – Seahawks have shown interest in RB Derrick Henry. (Chase Goodbread)
    – Seahawks like OL Rees Odhiambo and C Marcus Henry. (Pauline)
    – Seahawks have shown interest in OL Torian White. (Pauline)
    – TE Terenn Houk to be worked out by Seattle. (Aaron Wilson)
    – Seahawks visited with DL Jonathan Bullard. (Condotta)
    – Seahawks have visited with LB Christian Fench. (Condotta)
    – Seahawks visited with CB Rashard Robinson. (Condotta)
    – SS Will Parks was brought in for a visit. (Pauline)
    – OL Lene Maiava visited with Seattle. (Pauline)
    – CB Blake Countess met with the Seahawks at his Pro Day. (Aaron Wilson)
    – Seahawks were on hand for WR Paul McRoberts Pro Day. (Jim Thomas)
    – RB Zac Brooks spoke with the Seahawks at his Pro Day. (Dan Hope)
    – WR Dez Stewart had a pre-draft visit with the Seahawks. (Brandt)
    – The Seahawks held a private workout with OT Justin Murray. (Owczarski)

    • Kenny Sloth says:

      Fackrell tore up Odhiambo in the sdb exclusive tape.

    • JakeB says:

      That Justin Murray visit feels like one where they were trying to fill in some blanks as far as his physical testing. Had a real nice broad jump and decent vert. If he could’ve managed 23 reps on the bench instead of 20 he would’ve had a 3+ TEF score.

      • Volume12 says:

        Fieldgulls is a little slow this year, huh?

        Not seeing Baylor WR Jay Lee, German WR Moritz Boehringer, USC CB Kevon Seymour as VMAC visitors.

        Also worked out and met with quite a few others not on this list.

        • Lewis says:

          I would love to be a fly on the wall when Boehringer visits today. I’m a sucker for this kind of story (long shots, underdogs, etc.). This guy could be an epic bust, but there’s a chance he winds up being really special, too.

          • Volume12 says:

            I don’t think Boehringer would even contribute in year one. He’s an athlete, that’s it.

            Technique is awful, and yet people don’t worru about his level of competition?

            • Lewis says:

              I think he could contribute on special teams and specific packages as they slowly introduced the playbook to him. People who’ve seen him say he catches everything thrown his way, with his hands not his chest. If he has the physical and mental toughness, and the desire to play football and be great, I think he’s worth a shot.

      • Volume12 says:

        I’m telling ya OT Justin Murray is nice.

        Explodes outta his stance, better 10 yard split than Dahl or Haeg.

        • Kenny Sloth says:

          I’d love to see a guest post about him, V.

          • Volume12 says:

            Not a bad idea.

            Might have to do that.

            • Sea Mode says:

              I second that! Where is he projected to go?

              Anything on possible late round/UDFA OL projects would be great. Gotta keep looking for the next Gilliam!

              • Trail Hawk says:

                Anthony Norris TE SUU 6-5 and 250 pounds. 10’11” broad, 39″ vert and 24 reps, TEF 3.97. Is heavier than his 250 playing weight last season and a frame that can take more. No measurement on his arms but they’re long. Late 7th or UFA, Gilliam 2.0.

    • Steele says:

      Keep your eyes on Paul McRoberts. Dude is a baller.

      • Volume12 says:

        W. Michigan WR Daniel Braverman.

        Didn’t test as well as I originally thought, but this kid is gonna be a steal for someone.

        One of the best route runners in this class, impossible to tackle, COD is phenomenal, insanely productive, and he’s swagged out. Gritty/tough as hell.

        Seattle sees something in him. Worked him out and he’s a VMAC visitor.

        • STTBM says:

          Jesus, another WR less than 180 lbs soaking wet! Bleah! Seriously, those guys get hurt, and Seattle’s WR corps doesnt lack for Slot WR’s thats for sure…

          Not one of the top 10 WR’s I’d like to see Seattle bring in, thats for sure. But then again, what the hell do I know?

          • JustMeMyself&! says:

            How many of Seattle’s lightweight WRs have gotten hurt due to their size? Richardson’s injury was not caused by his weight. Lockett played all 16 games + the playoffs. Baldwin hasn’t missed time due to injury. Braverman, as far as I can tell, hasn’t missed a single game due to injury.

            We tend to err on the side of lazy when it comes to evaluating players. Way too many people assume small = injury risk which is simply not true.

            • STTBM says:

              May not, but Richardson has now blown his knee out twice. Drafting a guy so high with such a slight frame AND a major knee injury was not a good move. And he was dinged up from hits, and hasnt shown the ability to hang onto the ball and stay in the game after big hits like Tyler Lockett. How many sub-180 lbs guys in the NFL dont miss time? Andrew Hawkins case in point–career may be over due to concussions.

              Tyler Lockett is an anomaly. He’s awesome. I wasnt too thrilled with drafting him high as a WR, but I thought he’d be a great kick returner/PR. I was half right, half wrong lol! He’s tough as nails and durable.

              It may be lazy evaluation, but I wouldnt be beating the bushes for guys under 180 lbs, the track record for success isnt there. Whats wrong with guys with size? Not like they are that hard to come by…

              Ever since that idiot Ruskell decided Deion Branch was a number one WR and we saw only flashes before injuries ruined him, I havent wanted anything to do with small WR’s. And as Ive said, we already have several on the team. Why add more when we still dont have that big fast guy you know PC craves?

  28. MJ says:

    Rob – Random question: what are your thoughts on Karl Joseph? I don’t know why, but wouldn’t shock me if he ended up a Seahawk. That aside, what do you think of him as a player?

    • Kenny Sloth says:

      Not Rob, but he’s a decent player and will probably be a solid red chip guy, will need a mistake inducing front seven to give him opportunities reminds me of jairus byrd.

      Too high for hawks

      • H M Abdou says:

        Karl Joseph actually kinda reminds me of Captain Munnerlyn or Antoine Winfield. He plays bigger than his size and faster than his timed speed. Just an instinctive, natural playmaker.

    • Rob Staton says:

      I like him but he’s a bit redundant in Seattle with ET.

      • Richard says:

        Rob, That would be an interesting article of and for it’s self. How many of these athletes would simply be redundant of players that are already on the team. Granted, we would all love to have the clone of ET and Kam sitting on the bench, but that’s not the way the NFL works anymore, if it ever really did.

        If you sorted out the anchor players along with the young up and comers. All you have left is the backups (spot holders), the utility “got have a punter!” guys and a few “why is he here”, types. We all know who we have. Who do we need, to fill those spots that are suddenly open? What spots are those? How do we get those along with the few extras that it would be nice to have.

        Kenny almost got Rob to name those five true needed players that would/should be picked, on the podcast. Not the dream gets, the true will be chosen types that aren’t redundant. The Ifedt and the McGovern, the Cajuste, the Ervin and Feeney (who I’m adding in because Fackrell (and I hope we get him) would be great, but, he skews the top four spots that would/may muckup getting the others. The Hawks need a LT, they need a ?G, they need 1 player to take Bruce’s spot and finally be what he wasn’t. They “may” need that 3rd (2nd?) all purpose backup RB. Pete “NEEDS” to continue his search for the RedZone tall guy WR/TE/Hback utility guy that is there, but, you don’t notice him, like ever.

        Joe Dahl would be great to have, but with TEF, isn’t he Thuney and/or Haeg with small caveats? Simmons/Seymour/Glasgow/Vitale would all be great! But the intrigue is what is JS gonna do. Rounds 4 through 7 in whatever order that John Schneider finally decides to use them, will be “more funnier” because we just don’t know and now we have TEF. It’s going to be so much more enthralling because of Rob’s TEF concept. We all get to see how it will be applied over the three days. I can’t wait. Thanks Rob!!

        That’s why we/I appreciate Rob and the rest of the characters here so much. The process is just so intriguing. The rest is just redundant, right?

      • STTBM says:

        Until ET gets hurt and we have Terrell back there at FS. Ugh!

        Seattle sure could use backups to train up for Kam especially, and for ET. Question is, how high do you draft those guys? Joseph will go pretty high, and its a luxury for Seattle to spend a high pick on a likely backup for sure.

        But I hope they dont ignore the position. I would love to see them sign a big fast kid, a raw talent to groom behind our Safeties.

        • Kenny Sloth says:

          I think Shead is still the primary backup at both spots. He really is a fantastically versatile asset to this team

          • STTBM says:

            Shead didnt do well at SS though, and despite his huge size lost the job to the much slighter McCray. He’s versatile, but he’s not that great at SS or outside corner. Oddly, his best performances came at nickel CB.

            • Volume12 says:

              There’s a rumor that Seattle likes Maryland DB Sean Davis. But, it might be nothing more than that.

              Davis is probab,y gonna go in the 2nd or 3rd round.

  29. Charles says:

    I’ve started putting the numbers for all the OL and hopefully all the DL into a spreadsheet to auto calculate the TEF using Rob’s system, the TEF+ using my variation of Rob’s system but accounts for weight and arm length, and Cysco’s new WTEF scores.

    *I did have the broad jump changed to inches in all formats so that should be the only variation on Rob’s TEF score.

    I gave access to edit the sheet to Rob’s email, and if anyone else wants to help input numbers, let me know.

    Here it is so far.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pm5ps2ZmnFOb15eZ8CEPWydxnk1YA_4Zxep57vMQdGg/edit?usp=sharing

    Hopefully this will help Rob or anyone else that wants to use the numbers for future articles before the draft.

    • Richard says:

      That’s very cool, thanks.

    • schuemansky says:

      Great work. Thank you. That’s what us numbers guys were waiting for.

      Just added the numbers for Justin Zimmer. I gave him T-Rex arms of 31′ because I couldn’t find the real value.
      He is absolutely of the charts. I know … small school, probably short arms … but he still beats them all, past and present, TEF wise.

      • Charles says:

        Added him to the sheet, also found out Zimmer’s measurables… 10 1/8 hands, 31 5/8 arms

        • schuemansky says:

          Wow. Get’s him an even higher score on TEF+ than i thought and hopefully the arms are long enough to get him on the Hawks radar.

          • Charles says:

            I think its fine for DT’s. Jesse Williams was at 32, and they have said they like their DT’s more squatty. The only thing I worry about is the fact that a large part of his score is boosted from the Bench. Comparing him to JJ Watt’s score or Kristjan Sokoli, his TEF scores are higher, but his leg strength/explosiveness is much lower. Makes me wonder if we should have switched Sokoli to OL instead of just leaving him as a D-Lineman. He might have been able to turn out even close to a poor man’s JJ Watt would be impressive.

  30. coachmattson says:

    I see Anthony Davis is on the trading block and he is only 26. If we could get him for a 5th round pick like Clady, I think he would be a good starting RT for us. Thoughts?

    • Greg Haugsven says:

      Hasn’t played for a year and would the miners trade him to us? Probably not. But I’d take him.

  31. coachmattson says:

    Something I found on bleacher report about Davis – the man can run block!

    As Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee wrote in June 2015, “Pro Football Focus ranked Davis 39th out of 84 tackles [in 2014] with a -4.2 pass protection rating and a +5.2 run-blocking grade. He’s earned a positive run grade since 2011, and in 2012 his +18.4 run grade from PFF ranked only behind teammate Joe Staley’s +28.3 grade.”

    Davis is capable of playing left tackle or even guard, so his versatility makes him valuable as well.

    Sound Seahawky? I’d give up a 5th round pick!

    • Kenny Sloth says:

      Our players don’t like Davis, iirc?

      • J says:

        Didn’t like Jimmy either.

        • Kenny Sloth says:

          True. That makes me smile when i think about it. They called him soft ‘hit him once and he’s out of the game’

          He came in, didn’t do much, but was hella chippy and picking fights at the Clink. He belongs on this team.

          Shit they might still hate him

    • Kenny Sloth says:

      Also insisting o. Twitter Baalke promised him he isn’ on the block

  32. C-Dog says:

    26: R1P26
    DE/DT JONATHAN BULLARD
    FLORIDA

    56: R2P25
    G/C JOE DAHL
    WASHINGTON ST.

    90: R3P27
    RB TYLER ERVIN
    SAN JOSE ST.

    97: R3P34
    OLB TRAVIS FEENEY
    WASHINGTON

    124: R4P26
    OT LE’RAVEN CLARK
    TEXAS TECH.

    171: R5P32
    DE STEPHEN WEATHERLY
    VANDERBILT

    215: R6P40
    FB/HB DAN VITALE
    NORTHWESTERN

    225: R7P4
    CB WAYNE LYONS
    MICHIGAN

    247: R7P26
    DL/OL JOE HEATH
    MICHIGAN ST.

    I’m going to guess the Seahawks are legitimately very interested in Vernon Butler, and after his pro day performance, so are a lot of other teams. Washington is said to be in the market for DL help, and neither of the Bama DT’s apparently appeal to them. Lions could use DT help, Falcons, etc. Butler has the size and athleticism that will appeal to 4-3 and 3-4 teams. So, I’m thinking Bullard is more likely going to be a Hawk, if he’s still on board at 26, and he may. Not sure how a great fit for a lot of other defenses picking in front of Seattle, outside of Atlanta.

    If Seattle looses out on McGovern, I think Dahl becomes the likely candidate at 56, both are pretty comparable. I think Dahl is drafted to play center.

    Ervin is the Off Weapon they target early. Feeney makes it to the end of R3 because of injury concerns. LeRaven Clark slides into R4 because of raw tape and not a great showing on the bench press at his pro day, thus likely making him too much of a project to take him on a lot of teams’ boards.

    Weatherly adds more EDGE depth. Vitale is an athletic FB. Lyons adds corner depth, and Heath provides another DL convert to the OL.

    • RWIII says:

      I like your mock draft except for one thing. Do you think that Le’Raven Clark is going to slip all to the 124th selection in the draft?

  33. Kenny Sloth says:

    Redskins view Michael Thomas as the top receiver in the class -Jason Cole.

    Their GM is one of the best scouts alive. Period. He’s also wily af, could be a fake leak.

  34. 12er says:

    Zach Whitman has updated his 2016 database to include the results for most of the pro days: https://3sigmaathlete.com/rankings/

    • lil'stink says:

      Thanks for the link.

      I remember really starting to like Justin Simmons around the time of the Shrine game. All the experts kept knocking him for his lack of athleticism. Now he is number one on that list for all safeties. Tony Pauline might want to update his rankings, where he has Simmons as his 29th safety prospect.

      We’re going to surprise everyone this year when we take him on day 2 🙂

      • 12er says:

        Simmons should def be a day 2 pick, but it won’t be the Hawks. I really like him, but the team is set at safety.

  35. Eran-Ungar says:

    Wooowww…i’m backkkkkk. Was unable to post for the past 10 days for some reason….

    TEF is a really cool tool to use to try and guess what this FO will do. It is a very simple extrapolation of Cable’s physical specs for his linemen. It correlates perfectly with the picks they made in the past two years. What’s not to like?

    I understand the various reservations regarding using those specs as the exclusive criteria for picking our OL. It is clear to all of us that the Seahawks employ a multi-million scouting organization and players are clearly evaluated beyond a 30 seconds math formula. It is also clear that they won’t draft Nkemdiche even if his TEF is sky high.

    Since it is clear that they do employ a lot more information into thier ranking, seeing the way they picked the last two years indicates that whatever else they saw did not impress them greatly. In a land where college candidates are poorly picked and badly coached for the NFL, it makes perfect sense to just pick the best athlete for the job.

    JS’s statement regarding the lack of drop-offs in this draft class may also be interpreted as “The guys at the top of the draft are almost as bad as the guys at later rounds”. Again, pick the best athlete because they all need to be trained from scratch.

    The last point it raises is – If TEF plays such a major role in the picks, why are we focused only on those “TEF magnificent 6”???

    Surely there are prospects that didn’t make the combine but posted a high TEF at pro days etc.? Also, there are all those better athletes that went to the DL that could be great TEF converts. So, why should we pick those guys that high in the draft? Can’t we just find a few TEF kings on day 3?

    • NathanM says:

      Some high TEF guys that the Hawks like are also coveted by other teams so if they want them they have to get them early. The big 6 are just the combine participants, and recognizable names.

      The ‘Hawks could (should?) take 1-2 OL in the first 2 days of the draft but they will also surely take a late project either as a converted DL (Joel Heath mentioned) or one of these players (credit McGruff for this list last week BP-vert-broad-TEF). Some, like Bobek, fall well short of the 33″ arms so are unlikely Seahawk’s picks.

      Vi Teofilo OG Arizona State 43 – 29.5 – 9.67 – 3.78
      Brian Bobek C Minnesota 36 – 31 – 9.17 – 3.39
      Sebastian Johansson OG Marshall 26 – 32.5 – 9.42 – 3.16
      Spencer Pulley C Vanderbilt 28 – 28.5 – 9.33 – 3.07

      And some players just barely on the outside . . .

      Givens Price OG Nebraska 24 – 32 – 9.17 – 2.98
      Anthony Fabiano OT Harvard 25 – 32.5 – 9 – 2.97
      Joe Gore OT Clemson 28 – 27.5 – 9.08 – 2.95
      Halapoulivaati Vaitai OT TCU 23 – 29 – 9.42 – 2.93
      Brandon Shell OT South Carolina 22 – 30.5 – 9.33 – 2.91
      Jordan Swindle OT Kentucky 22 – 29 – 9.42 – 2.90

      • Sea Mode says:

        We will also know on April 18 (his personal pro-day workout) if Lene Maiava G Arizona is TEF enough for a mid-late round pick. Just to add to the list if you want to keep it running.

    • Sea Mode says:

      And BTW good to have you back, Eran.

  36. Eran-Ungar says:

    Vernon Butler was one of my favorite candidates this year until he crashed and burned at the combine. It was clear that he is not the athlete the Seahawks would want at that position.
    His pro day results were more in line with what you see in his tape. I can go on and on about what’s to love about him but many outlined them already. Just consider me back on his wagon big time.

    The guy that may be even more exciting is mr. Pipe Dream (Rankins). He is constantly mentioned here under “unless Rankins is there at 26” but the realistic view here is that he is a top 12/top 15 pick at the latest.

    While Rob and many others here have a more intimate and extensive understanding of the Seahawks needs and likely targets, we can not say the same about the other 31 teams in the NFL. There are guys who gets paid to know it and post their views as NFL draft mocks.

    I went and checked 13 such pundits posting their mocks at NFL.com, CBS. I wanted to see what is their take regarding Rankins. Here goes from top to bottom:

    Dane Brugler – 11th (CHI)
    Bucky Brooks – 12th (NO)
    Charles Davis – 12th (NO)
    Pete Prisco – 12th (NO)
    Rob Rang – 17th (ATL)
    Daniel Jeremiah – 19th (BUF)
    Chad Reuter – 19th. (BUF)
    ***************** Seahawks pick *****************************
    Jared Dubin – 30th (ARI)
    Will Brinson – 2nd round.
    Charley Casserly – 2nd round.
    Lance Zierlein – 2nd round.
    Ike Taylor – 2nd round.
    Maurice Jones-Drew – 2nd round.

    It looks like there are more 23nd round mocks then top 15 mocks. 6 out of the 13 are predicting that Rankins is there for us at 26. That’s close to 50/50 (6/7), no need for a pipe to keep dreaming.

    • Rob Staton says:

      With respect to some of those mocks (the Ike Taylor one is particularly errr… ‘out there’) — I wouldn’t trust any mock that doesn’t have Rankins in the top-15.

      Based on his testing he is comparatively explosive to Geno Atkins, Aaron Donald and he’s superior to Ndamukong Suh. He was the best player on the field during Senior Bowl week and it wasn’t close. The league doesn’t sleep on guys this good. His floor is likely Oakland at #14 and the very worst case is Atlanta at #17.

      It’s not really worth getting our hopes up.

      • Lewis says:

        The rational part of me knows you are right. But it’s the draft and crazier things have happened, so I keep hoping something wacky happens, like a run on quarterbacks shaking up the draft order and pushing him down the board.

      • Eran-Ungar says:

        I’m not getting my hopes up. I just point that the Rankins chances of dropping to us is more than a single digit percentage.

        Ike Taylor is indeed way “out there” but if guys like Rang, Jeremiah, Reuter, Brinson & Zeirlien do not have Rankins in the top 15, it leave a small glimmer of hope…

  37. GoHawks5151 says:

    May have been mentioned already but what is/was the TEF for new Seahawks OL Sowell and Webb?

  38. CDub says:

    Butler vs. Bullard-Who do you take at #26 and why?

    Personally from what little I’ve seen, Bullard seems to be more of an explosive player, quick off the line and creates more havoc in the backfield. Butler looks good too, a little bit more of a bigger run-stopper kind of guy.

    I’d like to hear people’s thoughts on the matter.

    • C-Dog says:

      Tough call, Bullard probably offers more immediate pass rush ability, while Butler may have more overall upside and becomes the more dominant player. Both are pretty impressive athletes. If it were me, I might lean for the player I see as having the higher ceiling, which foe my part, would probably be Butler.

      • Sea Mode says:

        Right now, Butler. I think we will most likely all say the same after reading Rob’s upcoming article tomorrow…

        Although there is a lot to like about Bullard, Butler is by far the more special athlete.

    • Eran-Ungar says:

      I have been spending a lot of time looking at both those guys.

      Right now I would say that butler has the edge as far as run blocking and Bullard has the edge against the pass and playing the edge (5 tech). That is my evaluation for day one this year.

      The reason i would rather have Butler is the following:

      His extra size is a great benefit at base D. The Seahawks strategy is stop the run first.

      Butler was not productive rushing the passer. However, when you look at his tape and zero in on plays were he was one gaping, you see a great variety of effective explosive moves. He rips, bulls, swims, clubs and even spins. He gets into the backfield quickly. He is usually all alone there with the QB and a lot of empty real estate. The edges rarely apply pressure and the QB can easily evade him. Picture Avril and Bennett in there and it’s a kill zone. I believe that butler’s size and explosive strength will enable him to press the pocket very effectively and enable Bennett, Avril and Clark to do there job.

      I’d rather have Butler. I can see Avril practicing his famous strip the ball slap that worked so great in 2013-2014.

  39. Volume12 says:

    JS said today on the radio, ‘who said we’re picking at 26?’

    Would they trade down?

    Ya got KC and GB, 2 teams that like the same players as Seattle, Aruzona is obviously a division rival, Carolina is a rival, and then Denvet, who has started to take Seattle’s approach to the draft.

    Just food for thought.

  40. Soggyblogger says:

    Rob, at what point in the draft would you see the Hawks trying to move up and get Rankin? 20? 22?

    Recognizing that the most important variable we have the most limited access to is the interviews, and that makes predicting who is on the list of top prospects, I am drooling over Rankin.

    Most of the other prospects talked about like McGovern, Ifedi, Spriggs, Haeg, Dahl, and others will most likely be available much later. Maybe not, but I try to remember the Hawks have gotten many great TEF and SPARQ players in the later rounds. Even undrafted. So I have trouble seeing us taking those guys in the early rounds now. Especially with Britt being someone we reached for that didn’t work out so far.

    If we cannot move up for Rankin, I would look to move down.

    • Rob Staton says:

      They might try it at 20 but I doubt he lasts that long

    • Steele says:

      Spriggs and Ifedi won’t last to much later. McGovern could be this year’s Mitch Morse and get taken earlier.

      The sweet spot is rds 2-3, and the Hawks must land quality with those picks and not get cute.

      I do not want to see another cheap conversion project draft, because they need starters. Now and/or soon.

    • Eran-Ungar says:

      Not sure about it.

      The Texans, Viking, Steelers will not go DT. The Jets with Wilkerson on board may not need one over other needs.

      If he gets beyond BUF at 19, the 2 candidates are WSH at 21 and CIN at 24. Jumping to 20 may be too rich for JS.

      If he gets beyond WSH (they have lots of needs…), they may try to get in front of CIN at 24.

  41. Volume12 says:

    Sokoli looks like he’s getting reps at LG.

    • Volume12 says:

      Speaking of that JS inteview, and IDK why people think they don’t, he said they draft for need. And always have.

    • DC says:

      Good news to my ears. If “El Matador” is still starting anywhere on our line this year aside from an injury fill in I’ll be displeased.

    • STTBM says:

      Good. Its a hell of a lot to ask a guy who played DT to learn to be an NFL C in one year. In fact, I’d be surprised if he can do it in two or three years. Meanwhile, it makes no sense to have a guy that athletic not competing for a spot. Let him learn G, then slowly bring him along at C as well. He needs to get used to the speed of the NFL first, then learn all the calls, checks, and guesswork that goes into playing C.

      • Volume12 says:

        It’s funny, if you listen to the JS interview, he kind of gives something away.

        He mentions upgrading the LG spot, and then scrambles to say, ‘and RT and C.’ It was almost like ‘oh ish.’

        Wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see Seattle take a non-athletic lineman at the LG position.

  42. JakeB says:

    Add possible TE to OT convert George Fant to the visit list per Pauline.

  43. Trail Hawk says:

    Bleacher report noted this comp for Tyrone Holmes in an article they had of him on April 8th. I edited to show Everson Griffens pro day#s and did the TEF.

    HT. WT. 10y. 40y. V. Br. BP. Shu. 3 c. TEF
    Everson Griffen 6’3″ 273 1.63 4.60 34″ 9’7″ 32 4.36 7.25. 3.53
    Tyrone Holmes 6’2″ 253 1.65 4.59 37.5 9’5″. 28. 4.30. 7.00. 3.42

    • vrtkolman says:

      The 20 lb. weight difference is pretty significant.

    • Trail Hawk says:

      It lined up great before I posted. Won’t try that again.

      • Trail Hawk says:

        For a DE?? I’ll take the lighter quickness of Holmes.

        • Volume12 says:

          Really like Tyrone Holmes myself.

          More poductive, more athletic, and more versatile than a guy like Noah Spence.

          His motor is non-stop. 2nd effort is fantastic, consistently in opponets backfields making splash plays.

          I could see Seattle taking him in round 5.

  44. vrtkolman says:

    Random thought here – the Ravens are completely stacked at tight end. Pitta announced he is returning and they have two promising 2nd year players in Maxx Williams and Crockett Gilmore. Add in that they gave Ben Watson a decent amount of money this offseason and they might have to cut a pretty enticing tight end.

    The tight end class is weak, and Seattle could use an upgrade.

    • Trail Hawk says:

      An upgrade to Jimmy Graham?

      • vrtkolman says:

        More like an upgrade to the 3rd tight end spot. Pitta could be an upgrade to Luke Willson too if he stays healthy. There is also no guarantee Graham plays at all next season.

        • STTBM says:

          Graham has a good chance to play, but expecting him to play at the same level is iffy. Who knows? Baltimore may not even really want Pitta, but it wont cost them much to bring him in and see what he can do through preseason.

          I still want Seattle to find a TE who can catch and block, even if he isnt fast. Im sure they will watch the Waiver Wire…

        • Trail Hawk says:

          Yeah, it would be nice to have another option. What would he cost?

        • JustMeMyself&! says:

          Pitta has a big, ugly contract and is really injury-prone. No thanks.

          I’d rather spend some draft capital on Higbee than what it would take to trade for Pitta + pay his salary.

          • vrtkolman says:

            We wouldn’t trade for him, we would wait for him to be cut. Ideally due to his injury history he could be had for near minimum.

      • GeoffU says:

        JS said this morning he’d be shocked if Graham wasn’t ready for the regular season.

  45. Greg Haugsven says:

    Patriots release Do.inique Easley, he was on the Seahawks radar 2 years ago when the Pats snatched him up before the Hawks could. Could be on Seahawks radar.

    • STTBM says:

      Wow! Released….crazy! Wonder if he was injured a lot or what the deal is? Seattle was really bummed when NE took him…

    • Trevor says:

      That has to be because of health. If not I am sure the Hawks will take a real good look at him.

      One thing about the Hawks and Pats they are not afraid to cut bait quickly if they do no think a player fits.

      • bobbyk says:

        Yeah. That’s crazy. He was their pick. The reports I heard (some of you probably heard the same) is that the war room went kind of quiet after he was taken and they were, in fact, bummed. That’s also why I don’t always buy into them not taking DTs early because I think in that situation they would have taken him in the first and, indeed, wanted him… a DT in the first. Then they traded down and got Richardson (after trading down again after that).

  46. RWIII says:

    The release of Dominique Easley is interesting. Yes there was rumors that the Seahawks were interested in Easley. During the off season New England has added a number of players to their defensive line. Plus Easley has had a history of injury concerns. I would be curious to see if John Schneider brought in Easley to have a look.

    • Kenny Sloth says:

      Yesss please

    • HOUSE says:

      I was BIG on Easley coming out the draft and there were tons of rumors he was OUR guy and only we traded down after NE snatched him up.

      It is a bit curious that it was an outright release.. I would definitely have him at VMAC doing a physica!!!

      • STTBM says:

        Yes, I read in more than one place that Seattle’s draft room got super quiet when NE took Easley. It was like someone died. Seattle then quietly traded their pick to Minny and moved down…

        • dawgma says:

          I was watching the feed, the room seemed like all the air got sucked out at that point. I’d be shocked if they weren’t on the phone trying to get him in for a physical right now.

    • vrtkolman says:

      WOW. There must be something hidden in the story here, like his latest injury could be career threatening. None the less, the Patriots’ pass rush has taken a major hit this off season.

      • Volume12 says:

        As much as I’d love him in Seattle, he’s gotta pass through waivers.

        • STTBM says:

          Good point. Whatever caused his release would have to be pretty major for him to make it through waivers all the way to Seattle…we’re something like 24th in line to claim anyone…

          • vrtkolman says:

            Yep, I’m reading Patriots boards and apparently there are a bunch of issues:

            1. He wasn’t following his injury recovery regimen – combined with reports he didn’t really care about football in college and there is some character issue here.
            2. There is a lawsuit against after his dog bit someone.
            3. They are moving to a 3-4 (this is just a rumor, and why would they sign Chris Long then in this case?)

      • TannerM says:

        Supposedly there are “off-field issues” involved… one of which might entail Easley’s dog biting some guy.

      • Sea Mode says:

        Just saw this:

        Albert Breer ‏@AlbertBreer
        Was told ex-Patriots DL Dominique Easley is healthy. New England cut him with guaranteed money left, effectively paying him to go away.

        • Trevor says:

          That has to throw up some huge red flags.

          My guess is Dan Quinn knows him really well and he will be a Falcon by tomorrow unless there are legal or suspension issues on the horizon.

  47. Volume12 says:

    Rob, there seems to be some confusion on twitter.

    I am not JS from Fieldgulls.

    Someone is trying to say that. My IP address is in Spokane, WA. Where I live. Not Seattle.

    • STTBM says:

      Man, that stupidity used to go on at the Trib blog. We had a couple long-term trolls and every so often the garbage about accusing someone of also being a troll on the side would surface…we even had idiots stealing handles in the live chat, to say stupid stuff. I had one calling me Slave to the Bowel Movement and then making comments as me that were designed to rile everyone up…

      I think Rob can check your IP address so he knows youre not pulling anything.

      Anyway, I feel your pain.

  48. H M Abdou says:

    I could see New England drafting Nkemdiche, now that they’ve released Dominique Easley. And I can see Nkemdiche having his head on straight (at least while he’s on his rookie contract), and playing really well for the Pats.

    If the Pats and Hawks play again in SB51, I could see Nkemdiche giving that inexperienced O-line fits!

  49. GeoffU says:

    According to Schneider on KJR this morning (and fieldgulls)

    “This is one of those drafts, from a numbers standpoint, this is the best draft since we’ve been here. So, since 2010, sheer numbers — we usually have 130-140 guys on our board — we’re going to have about 200 this year.”

    I think this makes us more likely to trade down than up.

    • H M Abdou says:

      Agreed. There are quite a few mid-round and late-round prospects that have plenty of upside, especially on defense.

    • gseahawk12 says:

      Hearing JS say that makes me hope they decide to trade down and get more picks. Sounds like they like a lot of late round prospects.

      • sdcoug says:

        To what end? We already have 9 picks with a strong roster. How many drafted and UDFAs can possibly make the team? I’m ok with trading back if we use those extra picks to package and go get a few preferred targets, but to draft 9 or 10 or 11 guys…not sure that makes sense. I just feel we’ve moved into a window where quality trumps the lottery tickets of quantity.

        • gseahawk12 says:

          That’s also a good idea. Maybe use the extra picks from the trade down to move up to get ‘their guy’ like Lockett last year.

    • bobbyk says:

      Would love the trade down scenario if Rankins isn’t available. Personally, I think there are OL guys who are supposedly 3rd/4th round guys that I think are better than some of these guys drafted at #26. Trading down would be awesome.

  50. nichansen01 says:

    My second two round mock:

    1. *Dallas – Carson Wentz (trade with Tennessee)
    2. Cleveland – Paxton Lynch
    3. San Diego – Laremy Tunsil
    4. *Tennessee – Jalen Ramsey
    5. Jacksonville – Myles Jack
    6. **Los Angelos – Jared Goff (trade with Baltimore)
    7. San Francisco – Deforest Buckner
    8. Philidelphia – Ezekial Elliot
    9. Tampa Bay – Joey Bosa
    10. New York (Giants) – Darron Lee
    11. Chicago – Vernon Hargreaves
    12. New Orleans – Sheldon Rankins
    13. Oakland – Reggie Ragland
    14. Miami – Ronnie Stanley
    15. Baltimore – Leonard Floyd
    16. ***Indianapolis – Jack Conklin (trade with Atlanta)
    17. Detroit – Jarran Reed
    18. ***Atlanta – Kevin Dodd
    19. Buffalo – Taylor Decker
    20. New York (Jets) – Germaine Ifedi
    21. Washington DC – Keanu Neal
    22. Houston – Laquon Treadwell
    23. Minnesota – Josh Docston
    24. Cincinnati – Corey Coleman
    25. Pittsburgh – Karl Joseph
    26. Seattle – Vernon Butler
    27. Green Bay – Andrew Billings
    28. Kansas City – Eli Apple
    29. Arizona – William Jackson
    30. Carolina – Su’a Cravens
    31. Denver – Jason Spriggs

    32. Cleveland – Will Fuller
    33. Tennessee – Mackensie Alexander
    34. *Tennessee – Shaq Lawson
    35. San Diego – Ryan Kelly
    36. Baltimore – La’Raven Clark
    37. San Francisco – Cody Whitehair
    38. Jacksonville – Artie Burns
    39. Tampa Bay – Kendell Fuller
    40. Giants – Michael Thomas
    41. Chicago – A’Shawn Robinson
    42. Miami – Xavien Howard
    43. **Baltimore – Chris Jones
    44. Oakland – Vonn Bell
    45. **Baltimore – Darian Thompson
    46. Detroit – Shon Coleman
    47. New Orleans – Zack Sanchez
    48. Indianapolis – Derrick Henry
    49. Buffalo – Emmanuel Ogbah
    50. Atlanta – Jonathan Bullard
    51. New York (jets) – Noah Spence
    52. Houston – Nick Martin
    53. Washington – Kenny Clark
    54. Minnesota – Kyler Fackrell
    55. Cincinnati – Willie Henry
    56. Seattle – Connor McGovern
    57. Green Bay – Hunter Henry
    58. Pittsburgh – Deion Jones
    59. Kansas City – Joshua Perry
    60. New England – Jihad Ward
    61. New England – Devontae Booker
    62. Carolina – Charles Tapper
    63. Denver – Connor Cook

  51. Volume12 says:

    Jason La Confora has Seattle taking VA Tech CB Kendall Fuller?

    Isn’t he pretty accurate when it comes to Seattle and the draft?

  52. nichansen01 says:

    Could Dominique Easley interest the Seahawks?

    • sdcoug says:

      He should, but he’d have to make it thru waivers. Not sure we’d put a claim and take on his rookie deal. But if he became a FA, I’d have to think they’d be very interested in taking a look with a prove-it deal

    • gseahawk12 says:

      I would love him on the Seahawks, but it depends on the off field stuff.

  53. Steve Nelsen says:

    Moritz Boehringer will have an official visit to the Seahawks per nfl.com.

    This guy is a super-SPARQ WR from Germany: 6-4, 227 with a 4.4 40 and decent hands. But, his only experience was in the German Football League.