Month: April 2012 (Page 8 of 9)

Draft Spotlight: Ronnell Lewis, LB, Oklahoma

Written by Kip Earlywine

Rundown: Nicknamed “The Hammer” for his bone crushing hits, Ronnell Lewis was a junior year defensive end for Oklahoma.  He is a projected outside linebacker in the NFL.

Age: 21  (September 17, 1990)

Height:  6’2″

Weight:  253

40 time:  4.69

10 yard split:  1.61

3 cone:  7.09

Vertical Jump:  31″

Compilation Videos:

vs. Texas

vs. Florida St.

Positives:

  • Big
  • Fast for his size
  • Powerful
  • High football IQ, reads plays well and has a nose for the ball
  • Doesn’t give up on plays
  • High motor
  • Sub-elite edge rush ability
  • Big time special teams contributor
  • Hard hitter
  • Great tackler

Negatives:

  • Tweener label
  • Essentially no experience at LB
  • Coverage ability is an unknown

Ronnell Lewis is a first round talent who could take quite a tumble on draft day, all for one innocent and unfortunate problem: his coaches played him at the wrong position in college.  Lewis played defensive end at Oklahoma, but he physically resembles a stud SAM linebacker.  Watching Lewis I was quickly reminded of scouting Aaron Curry three years ago.  Lewis has a big frame and looks like Aaron Curry physically (both are 6’2″ and Curry is just a pound heavier).  Lewis is not quite the freak athlete that Curry was, but he’s an above average athlete especially for his size and is equally as powerful, though Lewis stays in control and plays with more intelligence than Curry did.  Its kind of funny how they contrast in a way- Curry was the rock solid linebacker who was a total unknown as a pass rusher, where Lewis is a capable pass rusher who is an unknown at linebacker.

Lewis is a well rounded player with many positives and no real negatives save uncertainty.  The reason he won’t be a first round pick is because of the dreaded tweener label.  Lewis is too small to be a 3-4 end, he is slightly undersized for the strong side end role in a 4-3, he’s not quite quick enough or skilled enough as a pass rusher to be a weak  side end, and while he looks the part of a 4-3 SAM linebacker, he has no experience at the position really so his effectiveness there, particularly in coverage, is an unknown.

Above I linked two of Lewis’ game compilations, and you will see that he pretty much plays defensive end in every snap, with a few special teams plays thrown in for good measure.  I can only guess how well Lewis’ skills will translate to outside linebacker, but I really like his tape.  He uses his speed and strength well in the pass rush, he gets hustle sacks and makes a lot of difficult do-or-die tackles in space.  I love how he wraps up so well yet still throws his opponent to the ground with force- just to be sure.  At least from this sample, his mental mistakes seem to be minimal, and he almost always seems to know when it is wisest to wait and wisest to attack.  In many ways, he’s like Kam Chancellor the defensive end.  Just a solid contributor every snap who wins you over with consistent quality play.

In Conclusion:

Sometimes the tweener label can lead to a team finding a bargain value.  Brandon Mebane was thought to be too big to be a 3 tech but too small to be a nose tackle or 1 tech.  Seattle drafted him late in the 3rd round, much later than his talent deserved, and found he could be a very effective 1 tech after all.  Kam Chancellor was thought to be too slow or too stiff to handle the coverage responsibilities of a strong saftey, but was also unproven as an outside linebacker.  Seattle took him in the 5th and found a way to work around Chancellor’s weaknesses, making him an immediate pro-bowler at strong safety.  Ronnell Lewis could very well become a pro-bowler for some lucky team in the mid-2nd round, a team that is willing to take a chance on the uncertainty of Lewis’ NFL future.

Relative to his draft stock, Lewis is one of my favorite 2012 prospects.  Sadly, I don’t think Seattle will draft him under normal circumstances.  Seattle already has an able SAM ‘backer in KJ Wright, and while they could move Wright to Mike to accommodate Lewis, I sense that the Seahawks want more speed and more coverage out of the Mike than Wright can provide.  If Seattle drafts Upshaw or Ingram in the first round (which is likely), that would further complicate things if that first round selection plays a DE/SAM hybrid role, which is pretty much exactly what Ronnell Lewis is and would make his selection redundant.

Probably the only way Lewis becomes a Seahawk is if Seattle is given a great offer and trades so far out of the #12 pick that they miss out on all of Coples, Ingram, and Upshaw.  If that happens and Seattle goes a different direction in the first round, they could take Lewis in the 2nd round and use him in a very similar manner to how a guy like Upshaw or Hightower would be used- a hybrid DE/LB.  If Seattle takes Upshaw or Ingram in round 1, then that probably eliminates Lewis later on.  At this point, Lewis is probably only a contingency option for Seattle.  Which I think is a darn shame.  I know it wouldn’t be easy, but if Seattle could find a way to find a role for Lewis in round two, I’d be pretty excited about it.  He’s a risk, but there is a good chance he could become one of the NFL’s better SAM linebackers.

Seahawks interested in Barron & Hightower?

Tony Pauline had an interesting blog post today at DraftInsider.net, discussing Seattle’s possible draft plans on April 26th:

“What will the Seattle Seahawks do? Separate sources told me today the team hopes to move out of the 12th slot and trade into the later portion of round one, where they will then draft linebacker Donta Hightower. If they can’t move the pick they are seriously considering Hightower’s teammate, safety Mark Barron, at that slot and Kam Chancellor would then move to outside linebacker.”

Pauline’s sources are worth noting, especially when it comes to teams in the NFC. His Dallas sources have proven impeccable in recent years. On this one however, I’m not so sure.

Pete Carroll loves safety’s, which is pretty understandable given he played the position in college at Pacific. Carroll made an upgrade at the position one of his top draft priorities in 2010, alongside a new left tackle. Initially, they’d hoped Eric Berry would be available at #6 and Trent Williams would be there at #14. As the process played out, it became clear neither would be available – Williams in particular enjoyed a late surge into the top-five picks. The desire to go OT/FS remained though, evident by the decision to draft Russell Okung and Earl Thomas.

Seattle’s defense puts a lot of emphasis on winning the battle at the LOS, while having a secondary capable of capitalising on turnover opportunities. The safety position has taken a prime role, so the team’s desire to go big on the position shouldn’t be a shock. An alleged interest in Barron equally shouldn’t be surprising.

However… here’s the thing. Kam Chancellor is a pro-bowl safety. He’s the player the Seahawks sent to model the team’s new uniform in New York. He’s one of the big success stories of the Carroll/Schneider era to date. So why would you move him to linebacker? Sure, in the process of the 2010 draft he was considered a possible linebacker project. It’s not a completely ridiculous suggestion. Even so, what if the switch doesn’t work? If he didn’t adapt to the linebacker position, fans and pundits alike would be right to ask, “what was the point?”

Filling a hole at linebacker and making a success of Kam Chancellor would become secondary factors behind the desire to draft Mark Barron. I like Barron, he had a tremendous 2011 season and made a lot of necessary improvements. He’s rangy, he’ll make plays and he’s easily the best safety in this class. But is he that good that you just can’t pass at #12?

It’d be a huge gamble, without much tangible gain. If Barron or Chancellor fail, the move would be ridiculed. Both would have to succeed – and noticeably – for it to be considered a success. Would it be a satisfactory way to address the needs at the linebacker position? And are two first round picks on the safety position really necessary? If the Seahawks did draft Barron, that would be two first round picks on offensive tackles and two on safety’s. When exactly would it be time to concentrate on other key areas like the pass rush, receiver or you know… maybe a quarterback?

For all of the reasons listed above, I just find this information too far fetched. And if you’re doubting the second part about Barron, can you truly believe the bit about trading down for Dont’a Hightower? It wouldn’t shock me if the Seahawks did like Hightower – he’s a tough, physical linebacker with a good field IQ and he’ll be a solid pick for someone in round one. If a deal can be manufactured which enables the Seahawks to move down and possibly acquire draft stock for 2013, I could see it. You’d be looking at a bold trade though, one similar to the deal that allowed Atlanta to move up twenty places last year to claim Julio Jones. Would a team in the 30-35 range make such an offer? It seems pretty unlikely.

And I keep coming back to one particular area of the defense – the pass rush. The number one priority for this draft. If you want to draft a linebacker this year, there are going to be (good) options beyond round one. If you want to draft a pass rusher, the options are far weaker beyond the first. There are situations where maybe the team’s preferred options leave the board before the #12 pick, forcing them to look elsewhere. But only in that scenario can I envisage a situation where they look beyond the pass rushers in this class.

I’ve included game tape videos below of Mark Barron and Dont’a Hightower:

Updated mock draft: 4th April

A third round option for the Seahawks?

We’re three weeks away from the draft, meaning just three more projections before April 26th. The top six should be fairly predictable, with really only the order in which Trent Richardson, Morris Claiborne and Justin Blackmon leave the board to be determined. After that, it’s a free-for-all.

I suspect we could see some movement. Jacksonville will hope there’s a market beyond Miami for Ryan Tannehill, enabling them to conjure up an attractive trade offer. Even if that isn’t the case, it makes sense for the Jaguars to explore trade options given their priority must be to build around Blaine Gabbert first and foremost.

Miami could receive trade offers depending on the defensive prospects Carolina are eyeing, while the Panthers themselves could receive interest from anyone looking for the #2 offensive tackle. Even Kansas City could be a hot-spot for teams fearing who the Seahawks will draft.

That uncertainty makes picks 7-11 difficult to project, and therefore it’s tough to gauge who’ll be left for Seattle. Despite increased speculation over the possibility the Seahawks could draft Luke Kuechly or David DeCastro, the teams priority has to be the pass rush. This is a defense that is edging closer to being extremely good. Yet without a compliment to Chris Clemons and an increase in quarterback pressure, it’ll never reach its full potential. Expect the Seahawks to draft a pass rusher in round one and field a top-10 unit if healthy.

I’ve included a second round projection and also a third round choice for Seattle. This mock addresses the three key areas for the Seahawks – pass rusher, linebacker and running back. A prospect in round one who can be a hybrid DE/OLB and will get to the quarterback, a linebacker with range who can cover and a running back that’ll make sure the Seahawks don’t miss a beat when they spell Marshawn Lynch.

Updated first round mock draft

#1 Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford)
The inevitable.
#2 Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor)
The inevitable part II.
#3 Matt Kalil (OT, USC)
Minnesota won’t waste any time calling Kalil’s name. He has elite potential. The inevitable part III.
#4 Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama)
The Browns have to find someone on offense to build around. Richardson would be the wise choice here.
#5 Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU)
The biggest spenders in free agency, Tampa Bay could still use a stud cornerback.
#6 Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State)
The Rams know this is now a three-draft plan so they need to take whoever is highest on their board with this pick.
#7 Quinton Coples (DE, North Carolina)
The Jaguars have been down this route before with Derrick Harvey, but they need a pass rusher.
#8 Ryan Tannehill (QB, Texas A&M)
If the Dolphins don’t take Tannehill here he could fall. How much does Mike Sherman rate his former Texas A&M starter?
#9 Courtney Upshaw (DE, Alabama)
Carolina wants players that will fit into 3-4 and 4-3 looks. Upshaw fits the bill.
#10 Riley Reiff (OT, Iowa)
The Bills are going to draft an offensive lineman here, the only question is which one will they choose?
#11 Luke Kuechly (LB, Boston College)
Scott Pioli loves guys like this – blue collar, high work ethic. Not always spectacular, but always solid.
#12 Melvin Ingram (DE, South Carolina)
Seattle needs to find a DE/OLB hybrid to fit into the defense and help the pass rush.
#13 Cordy Glenn (OT, Georgia)
Whoever is playing quarterback for Arizona next year, the Cardinals simply must draft an offensive lineman.
#14 Dontari Poe (DT, Memphis)
One of the 3-4 teams will convince themselves they cannot live without Poe’s major potential.
#15 Fletcher Cox (DT, Mississippi State)
Someone will fall for Cox’s athleticism and ensure he’s taken early in the first round. I prefer him in a 3-4.
#16 Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame)
He’s rising, but not everybody will buy into a guy with off-field issues. New York might be willing to turn a blind eye.
#17 David DeCastro (OG, Stanford)
Cincinnati will want to make sure one of their first round picks is a corner, but DeCastro is hard to pass here.
#18 Whitney Mercilus (DE, Illinois)
With the top offensive lineman leaving the board before the #18 pick, San Diego may fill another big need here.
#19 Michael Brockers (DT, LSU)
Trading for Brandon Marshall will allow Chicago to concentrate on the best lineman available at this spot.
#20 Mark Barron (S, Alabama)
He played incredibly well in 2011 and if teams are satisfied with his health, he should be a top-20 pick.
#21 Stephon Gilmore (CB, South Carolina)
Gilmore’s performance at the combine has seemingly done enough to cement his place in the top-25 picks.
#22 Kendall Wright (WR, Baylor)
Cleveland needs to keep adding playmakers and could see Wright as a nice compliment to Greg Little.
#23 Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama)
Coverage skills are the issue here but eventually someone will pull the trigger on Kirkpatrick.
#24 Jonathan Martin (OT, Stanford)
This would be tremendous value for the Steelers.
#25 Doug Martin (RB, Boise State)
This is now the Peyton Manning show and they need to build around their prized addition. Martin does everything well.
#26 Stephen Hill (WR, Georgia Tech)
Mind-blowing potential given his size, athleticism and hands. He stood out in limited targets during the 2011 season.
#27 Devon Still (DT, Penn State)
Would anyone be surprised if New England traded this pick? This could be an area where the fourth QB leaves the board post-trade.
#28 Vinny Curry (DE, Marshall)
Don’t be surprised if Curry goes much earlier than this.
#29 Dont’a Hightower (LB, Alabama)
Dont’a Hightower looks like he was born to play defense for the Ravens.
#30 Coby Fleener (TE, Stanford)
His pro-day raised a few eye-brows and he could go in the top-25.
#31 Peter Konz (OC, Wisconsin)
Possibly the best bargain in the first round. Konz is the real deal.
#32 Bobby Massie (OT, Ole Miss)
A bit of a late riser, Massie looks like a solid right tackle. New York are good enough to make a pick this this.

Round two

#33 St. Louis – Jerel Worthy (DT, Michigan State)
#34 Indianapolis – Kevin Zeitler (OG, Wisconsin)
#35 Minnesota – Reuben Randle (WR, LSU)
#36 Tampa Bay – Bobby Wagner (LB, Utah State)
#37 Cleveland – Mike Adams (OT, Ohio State)
#38 Jacksonville – Alshon Jeffery (WR, South Carolina)
#39 St. Louis – Kelechi Osemele (OG, Iowa State)
#40 Carolina – Jayron Hosley (CB, Virginia Tech)
#41 Buffalo – Mychal Kendricks (LB, California)
#42 Miami – Andre Branch (DE, Clemson)
#43 Seattle – Zach Brown (LB, North Carolina)
#44 Kansas City – Amini Silatolu (OG, Midwestern State)
#45 Dallas – Jared Crick (DE, Nebraska)
#46 Philadelphia – Nick Perry (DE, USC)
#47 New York Jets – Lamar Miller (RB, Miami)
#48 New England – Shea McClellin (DE, Boise State)
#49 San Diego – Brandon Brooks (OG, Miami OH)
#50 Chicago – Josh Robinson (CB, UCF)
#51 Philadelphia – Brock Osweiler (QB, Arizona State)
#52 Tennessee – Kendall Reyes (DT, Connecticut)
#53 Cincinnati – Ronnell Lewis (LB, Oklahoma)
#54 Detroit – Lavonte David (LB, Nebraska)
#55 Atlanta – Chandler Jones (DE, Syracuse)
#56 Pittsburgh – Mohamed Sanu (WR, Rutgers)
#57 Denver – Brandon Thompson (DT, Clemson)
#58 Houston – Josh Chapman (DT, Alabama)
#59 New Orleans – VOID
#60 Green Bay – Brandon Weeden (QB, Oklahoma State)
#61 Baltimore – Harrison Smith (S, Notre Dame)
#62 San Francisco – Casey Hayward (CB, Vanderbilt)
#63 New York Giants – David Wilson (RB, Virginia Tech)
#64 New England – (Brandon Boykin, CB Georgia)

Seahawks third round pick: Robert Turbin (RB, Utah State)

SDB community mock draft – #5 Tampa Bay

The obvious option for the Buccs at #5?

Trent Richardson to the Browns? That was the decision yesterday in the SDB community mock draft. The Alabama running back received 60% of the votes ahead of Justin Blackmon (16%), Ryan Tannehill (13%) and Morris Claiborne (11%). The first four picks are now in…  

#1 Indianapolis Colts – Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford)  

#2 Washington Redskins – Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor)  

#3 Minnesota Vikings – Matt Kalil (OT, USC)  

#4 Cleveland Browns – Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama)  

It means the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are now on the clock…  

With the Browns taking Trent Richardson, it makes the Buccs decision at #5 a bit of a foregone conclusion. Cornerback and linebacker are the team’s two biggest needs and only the prospect of an elite runner such as Richardson would potentially lead the team to other positions.  

Claiborne would be the overwhelming favorite in this scenario, but it’s worth considering what alternatives may exist. Despite adding Vincent Jackson, would the Buccs consider adding another dynamic receiver in Justin Blackmon? Or is that need now completely addressed? What about a right tackle such as Riley Reiff, or a pass rushing compliment off the edge for Adrian Clayborn in Quinton Coples?  

All the other options really are shadowed by Claiborne, but it’s up to you…  


(polls)

Draft Spotlight: Sean Spence, LB, Miami

Written by Kip Earlywine

Rundown:  Sean Spence is a senior linebacker from the Miami Hurricanes.  He played most of his snaps at middle linebacker.  He was the ACC defensive rookie of the year in 2008.  He has 47.0 career tackles for loss, the second highest career total among 2011 players.

Age:  23 (January 17, 1989)

Height:  5’11”

Weight:  231

40 time:  4.71

10 yard split:  1.59

3 cone:  7.08

Vertical Jump:  33.50″

Compilation Videos:

vs. Clemson (2010)

vs. Kansas St. and Florida St.

Positives:

  • Fast
  • Aggressive minded, attacks gaps and makes plays behind the line of scrimmage
  • Has the burst and closing speed to become a potentially useful blitzer
  • Built to excel in coverage
  • Capable of delivering hard hits and impressive tackles
  • Textbook hand use / fights off blocks well

Negatives:

  • Undersized
  • Mistake prone
  • Occasionally gets sloppy with tackling technique

Sean Spence ran a disappointing 4.71 forty time at the combine, which is straddling the line between average and below average.  Its actually a slower time than those clocked by Leroy Hill (4.65) or even David Hawthorne (4.69 at his pro-day).  As said before, track speed is not the same thing as field speed, and to my eye Spence plays with above average field speed, perhaps a touch less than Bobby Wagner, who clocked a 4.45 time.  I don’t think general managers are going to put much stock into Spence’s 40 time.  They know how fast he is from tape study.

Spence wasn’t quite the linebacker I expected when I watched his compilation videos.  I was expecting a player like Bobby Wagner: consistent, mistake free, and boring.  Spence is different.  He made some splash plays.  He had a sack.  He attacked the first level with good timing which led to many tackles for loss.  I’ve seen a lot of scouting reports that sing praises for Spence’s instincts, and I’d like to as well, but I just can’t.  Not from this sample.  He missed tackles that led to extra yards gained.  He took poor angles in pursuit that turned what could have been a moderate gain and turned it into a big one.  On the second play of the Clemson compilation, he misread and over pursued his run responsibility which directly led to a 71 yard touchdown run.  Spence is erratic.  In this sample it felt like he had more negative plays than splashy ones.

For all of his ugly plays, Spence does occasional show some pretty tackles.  It seems like when Spence has a chance to square up, he can hit and wrap as well as Seattle’s #31: Kam Chancellor.

Spence is undersized, but I’m not sure how much that matters when projecting to the NFL.  His size was not an issue at Miami.  He uses excellent hand technique to almost instantly shed blockers.  Its not every day that one of the smallest linebackers is also one of the best at shedding blocks.  If I had to pick one thing I like about Spence the most- it’s his hand use against blockers.

Spence has fluid hips and has the athleticism to be an excellent coverage linebacker.  As far as how good he actually played in coverage, I really can’t say from the footage I’ve found, although the consensus among scouting reports is very positive.

In conclusion:

Sean Spence is often mocked in the 3rd or 4th round, and after finally scouting him, I feel that’s a pretty fair appraisal.  He has a knack for making plays.  He had 14 TFLs last year and 17 TFLs the year before.  Very few linebackers can boast those kind of numbers.  Bobby Wagner had less than half that many TFLs when playing the 4-3 Mike role from 2009-2010.  But Spence also makes a lot of mistakes.  He’s the kind of guy that can win the game for you on 4th down, but lose the game for you the next week on a crucial late game play.  Both Spence and Wagner can cover and have speed.  Does Seattle prefer the safer version or the gambler?  My gut tells me that Seattle would rather have the safer player, especially if they rely on just two linebackers in a 5-2 front with any consistency.

Regardless of Seattle’s preferences, I’d be a little surprised if they didn’t have both Wagner and Spence on their radar somewhere.  Perhaps Spence could be an insurance policy in rounds 3 or 4 depending on what happens at #43.

Tuesday draft notes

Seattle's new look for 2012

New duds

Before we get onto the usual draft talk, today was a big day for Seahawks fans with the introduction of the team’s new uniforms. We might not know who the team are going to draft later this month, but we do know what they’ll look like when they eventually take the field in September. Opinion is mixed, but I think it’ll be a look that grows particularly when fans get to see the new uni’s live rather than in studio-based photographs. I’m also interested to see how Seattle will use the possible combinations of navy, grey and white. I’d recommend watching the video below to get a taste for the enthusiasm within the team for the new look and to also get a feel for what they look like in person.

Hawthorne moves on to New Orleans

David Hawthorne today agreed a 5-year contract with the New Orleans Saints. I think it was apparent Seattle wanted to move on at the position using the draft. Even when the market dried up and reports suggested both parties were talking, Seattle’s interest in keeping Hawthorne appeared lukewarm. Many will now speculate on the increased likelihood that the Seahawks will draft Luke Kuechly, perceiving this as a ‘blow’ with a new hole that must be filled. I strongly disagree with that line of thinking.

I’d guess it was always the team’s intention to move on unless Hawthorne’s market was so limited he could be re-signed on a modest one-year deal, making him expendable. The team appears to be going in a different direction at linebacker, I suspect emphasising speed and coverage ability. Win the war in the trenches at the LOS and have the kind of physical, rangy coverage that will allow such an aggressive approach up front. Hawthorne was always more of a hitter and he became a fans favorite for those talents. But as this team is shaped over time, we’re starting to see new wrinkles emerge.

I expect the Seahawks will draft a linebacker in the first three rounds and I think that player will have ‘coverage’ firmly at the top of his list of positives. For those reasons, I imagine they’d love Zach Brown to fall into round two. A lot of people don’t like that idea, but the guy can flat out cover. He’s not a great pass rusher who delivers fierce hits, but he can go toe-to-toe with a receiver or tight end even on a deep route. Brown plays sideline-to-sideline, he can shift laterally and he covers a ton of ground. He truly is a rare athlete at the linebacker position, and that’s something a lot of teams are looking for these days. Don’t be surprised if he goes earlier than most people expect.

In my mind that’s the kind of prospect the Seahawks will be eyeing, rather than the Luke Kuechly’s of round one. A lot of people ask about Kuechly and he continues to be a hot projection in many mock drafts. Here’s why I don’t buy it. I think the Seahawks intend to be dominant at the LOS, which is why they’ve emphasised size up front and re-signed both Red Bryant and Brandon Mebane as priorities. I expect the team will use it’s first pick on a further compliment to the pass rush and run support, giving Seattle the opportunity to consistently win battle’s up front. Pete Carroll talks a lot about controlling possession, turnovers, and I think he’ll see pressure up front and a suffocating defensive line as a means to create that. It also means having players in the secondary and at linebacker who will allow such an aggressive approach.

Kuechly is pretty good in coverage – a little stiff which isn’t a big surprise (or a big deal at linebacker), but overall he’s sound in that area. However, he’ll always be at his best when the play is developing in front of him. I’ve not scouted a linebacker before with his instinct to track the ball carrier – he gravitates to the ball with such ease and was a great ‘safety net’ in the second level for Boston College after the almost inevitable initial penetration. As good as he is, I’m not sure the Seahawks want that kind of linebacker. As I mentioned above, I think they’ll look for an athlete who’s primary talent will be coverage ability. Using Kuechly in that way is probably a waste of what he’s good at – you don’t want him tracking a TE or WR most of the time because he’s so good at read/react and playing the ball carrier.

Neither do I think the Seahawks will plan to spend the #12 pick on a player who will predominantly make second-level tackles and not improve the pass rush. If they are looking for a linebacker with plus coverage, do you really need to spend a first round pick? Especially with greater priorities such as the aforementioned pass-rush compliment? Whatever your views on the 2012 group of pass rushers, the options are much weaker beyond the team’s first pick. There could actually be some healthy alternatives to Kuechly beyond round one that fit the criteria suggested above.

Sure, there’s an element of guesswork involved here – but that’s just how I view the Seahawks approach to this. Hawthorne moving on does guarantee linebacker will be a target position in the draft, but that was always likely to be the case. Not much changed today and I wouldn’t presume this paves the way for Luke Kuechly at #12.

Seattle looking for late-round gems?

A lot of teams use their allocation of pre-draft visits on the top prospects. Whether it’s designed to cause a smokescreen or just take a look at the premium players, every year you’ll hear a lot about a high-profile quarterbacks schedule. Since John Schneider and Pete Carroll moved to Seattle, they’ve done things slightly differently.

Although there have been meetings with higher profile players (most notably last year with Ryan Mallett, a player not included on the team’s board), the Seahawks tend to use these visits to look at priority UDFA’s and mid to late round gems. I get the impression that tape wins out a lot with Schneider when it comes to the evaluation process, and that combine meetings and subsequent visits are designed to learn more about the person or give the hard sell for those frantic moments after the draft. It’s paid off for Seattle – last year they claimed Doug Baldwin, Ricardo Lockette, Josh Portis and Jeron Johnson as free agents. They’ve also found value in the later rounds of each draft, with Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor and KJ Wright becoming key starters.

I’m not sure if there’s any validity to this next suggestion, but I wonder if the Seahawks almost put an uneven amount of time into those late rounds at this stage in the process? Everyone knows about the top-guys by now, but there’s always bargain’s to be found in the mid to late rounds. Maybe one of the ways Seattle has tapped into that talent pool is by dedicating itself to the quest of finding starters in unconventional areas of the draft?

Tony Pauline revealed today that Seattle is meeting with Boise State safety George Iloka and Boston College cornerback Donnie Fletcher. Iloka is 6-3 and 216lbs, while Fletcher comes in at 6-1 and 195lbs – no surprises there given Seattle’s penchant for size in the secondary. Jeremy Lane (CB, Northwestern State) will also visit, he’s another 6-1 cornerback while Ron Brooks (yep, 6-1) is also expected to meet with the Seahawks. Other prospects that have been speculated to be visiting the team include Adrien Robinson (TE, Cincinnati), Derek Carrier (TE, Beloit College), Danny Trevathan (LB, Kentucky) and Matt Conrath (DE, Virginia). The one big name that has been speculated about a visit to Seattle is LSU’s defensive tackle Michael Brockers.

Below I’ve included game tape for Donnie Fletcher and Ron Brooks, and a highlights package for George Iloka:

SDB community mock draft – #4 Cleveland

The Browns need a playmaker... like Trent Richardson

Yesterday in SDB’s community mock, it was decided Matt Kalil would be chosen by the Minnesota Vikings with the #3 overall pick. The USC offensive tackle received 93% of the votes, with second placed Justin Blackmon a long way back at just a meagre 3%. It means the first three picks are in and this is how it looks so far:

#1 Indianapolis Colts – Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford)

#2 Washington Redskins – Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor)

#3 Minnesota Vikings – Matt Kalil (OT, USC)

On to pick #4 and the Cleveland Browns…

This is where things get interesting. The Browns seemingly have four legitimate options. They could draft a playmaker at running back in Trent Richardson – arguably the best player remaining on the board and a potential superstar for a city that needs one badly. Although many teams are starting to avoid drafting for the position early, Richardson is that rare player who could defy the trend. Mike Holmgren built an offense around a timing passing game and a stud running back/offensive line in Seattle and drafting Richardson could move the Browns closer to emulating that. Richardson appears to be made for the AFC North.

However, this is a deep draft for running backs and the Browns have two more picks at the bottom of the first and the top of the second. There’s also a strong need at receiver and Justin Blackmon would be a big benefit to whoever ends up being the starting quarterback next year. Some have touted the possibility of reuniting Blackmon with his Oklahoma State quarterback Brandon Weeden as Cleveland searches for an actual offense. Is Blackmon worth the #4 pick though? That’s the big issue. Especially when there’s depth at receiver and likely to be other options at #22.

Holmgren and his staff showed their appreciation for the cornerback position when they drafted Joe Haden with the #7 pick in 2010. He’s had a solid start to his career in Cleveland, but the Browns are in the market for another corner. Morris Claiborne’s name has been put forward by some projectionists as a possibility at #4. Given the team’s needs on offense I think it’s unlikely, but if the Browns aren’t sold on Richardson or Blackmon and can’t move down, perhaps the LSU cornerback becomes a realistic option?

The big debate surrounding Cleveland this off-season has been the dilemma at quarterback. The Browns couldn’t get a deal done with St. Louis for Robert Griffin III and they avoided free agent options like Matt Flynn. GM Tom Heckert insists Colt McCoy has the team’s backing, but it appeared to be a token vote of confidence given all the speculation following the team. The appointment of Brad Childress as offensive coordinator was intriguing – considering his experience with the Andy Reid offense and mobile quarterbacks. Perhaps they consider Ryan Tannehill at #4? It’d be a major reach in my opinion, but is it realistic?


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The definitive running back game tape thread


Insurance policy needed

Pete Carroll: “The way that we want to play, you need somebody on your team carrying the football. Without an attack guy it doesn’t feel the same. And he (Marshawn Lynch) fits it just right, and he’s taken advantage of the emergence of these guys and the whole scheme, and he’s playing great football. We’re always going to continue to look for guys that add that to us.”

Those comments were made on December 14th, several weeks before Marshawn Lynch agreed a reported $31m four-year extension. Lynch ended the 2011 season running as well as any back in the league, but I still expect the Seahawks to spend one of their first three picks on the position. In February I wrote a piece detailing why I’d come to that conclusion, based on the team’s commitment to the run, needed insurance against Lynch missing time and the sheer depth of talent available at the position this year. Taking a running back in rounds 2-3 won’t be a luxury for Seattle, in fact it might be a necessity.

Lynch will turn 26 in just under three weeks time, but his physical running style has been punishing not just to the opposition but also to the man carrying the rock. The Seahawks clearly believe ‘Beast Mode’ can deal with a big work load and continue to be an x-factor for the offense, but they’ll almost certainly know they need a Plan B. It’s part insurance against injury, but it’s also about making sure the offense isn’t too reliant on Lynch being healthy. Here’s what I wrote nearly two months ago:

Pete Carroll has made it clear that the run game will make or break this offense, at least until they find ‘the one’ at quarterback. There’s no grey area here, the Seahawks want to run the ball. Most of their investment – be it in the draft, coaches or free agency – has been focused on setting up an effective running game. They can’t move forward knowing they’re an injury to Marshawn Lynch away from losing that identity again. Although many people believed the tepid 6-3 defeat in Cleveland was a review of Tarvaris Jackson’s effectiveness and Charlie Whitehurst’s ineptitude, it was mainly an insight into Seattle’s offense minus-Lynch. The Seahawks cannot risk being caught short and with a lot of talent available at running back in rounds 1-3, it will be a target area.

Kregg Lumpkin has been added as a free agent, but it appears Justin Forsett won’t be returning. There’s room for another running back. I also suspect the team won’t just be looking for a specialist third-down back or a change-of-pace, but possibly someone with similar characteristics to Lynch. Lumpkin is 5-11 and 228lbs after all, so maybe that’s an indicator.

Looking at the draft, what options do the Seahawks have? Plenty, as it happens. If they want to attack the position early, they could find real value with a Doug Martin or Lamar Miller – two players who could easily carry the load as a feature back at the next level. Martin in particular should not make it into round two – he would be a king steal if he makes it to Seattle’s second pick. Should the board gravitate towards the defense (it’s also a strong second round for linebackers), then the third and fourth rounds are also likely to provide potential impact runners. Below, you’ll find game tape for eleven different running backs. I suspect we could see two separate ‘runs’ on the position, early in round two and then in the middle of round three. The perception that backs can be found beyond round one will create a larger pool of talent after the initial 32 picks, but it could also cause a scramble in the middle rounds.

SDB community mock draft – #3 Minnesota

The Vikings need to help Christian Ponder, so will they draft a left tackle?

Time for a community mock. We’ll do a pick a day until we reach Seattle at #12. There will be four options to choose from for each selection, and we’ll extend it for the Seahawks choice.  We’re going to start at #3 today, considering it’s a nailed on certainty that Indianapolis will draft Andrew Luck and Washington will take Robert Griffin III. The purpose for this is to get a general feeling of the SDB community and explore a situation where it’s not just one man’s opinion on who will be available at #12.

So first up – the Minnesota Vikings.

Most projectionists have the Vikings drafting Matt Kalil with the #3 pick. Left tackle is a big need for Minnesota and the position has taken premium status in the modern NFL. Even if you ignore all of that, Kalil might be the best player remaining on the board. It’d be close with Trent Richardson, but with Adrian Peterson already on the roster (albeit returning from a knee injury) the Vikings probably won’t be drafting a running back here. Christian Ponder suffered with injury issues at Florida State and Minnesota needs to make sure he’s well protected in the NFL. Kalil has the potential to grow into one of the elite pass protectors in the NFL. Really, it should be a no-brainer.

But what are the other options, for the sake of due diligence? Minnesota has a need at cornerback, so Morris Claiborne could be on the radar. Leslie Frasier is a defensive minded coach and if he feels strongly enough about the LSU prospect, he might be able to persuade the front office to go in a different direction. Even then, I suspect his priority will be to protect the team’s quarterback investment. The Vikings also need to find more playmakers, despite having Peterson and Percy Harvin on the roster. They lack a true #1 receiver having lost Sidney Rice in free agency last year, so would they consider Justin Blackmon? Drafting Trent Richardson would be a complete luxury, but can we 100% rule out the Vikings going in that direction after Peterson’s injury? If any running back in recent history is good enough to at least ask the question, it’s Richardson.


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Exploring how Upshaw/Ingram would fit in Seattle

With the #12 pick in the 2012 draft, the Seattle Seahawks select...

If the Seahawks draft Courtney Upshaw or Melvin Ingram in round one, how would they fit into the defensive scheme? Are they LEO pass rushers? Would they play the WILL or the SAM? Are they orthodox 4-3 rushers who take over the Raheem Brock role?

These questions are asked more than any other on this blog. This probably means I’ve not done a good enough job describing why they fit in Seattle, so hopefully we can get to the bottom of this today. Firstly, I was grateful to hear Scott Enyeart – USC beat writer – discussing the subject in a podcast for the HawkBlogger site today.

“The concept is an elephant defensive end. Basically it’s kind of a hybrid linebacker/defensive end type player who’s got some 3-4 principles and it was a way to generate some pass rush and also be really super effective against the run. That fast twitch, speedy edge rusher, that Justin Tuck type – I don’t know it that’s necessarily what Seattle wants because I think they want to be able to be effective against the run and not have a drop off and have to run certain players in the game and those types of things. So I think that’s Upshaw’s versatility over your traditional, you know, ‘LT – I’m a linebacker I’m going to get down on the line and be a pass rusher’. I think that’d he’d be able to be effective against the run and I think that’s what I like about him maybe over Ingram – versus the run. But I do think that maybe an ‘elephant’ role, that would put him in the Clay Mathews class as he was used under Pete Carroll.”

The Seahawks need an elephant. Someone who continues to improve the team’s strong run defense, but also helps create more of a pass rush threat to compliment the LEO Chris Clemons. The player needs to be a three-down type who can line up at the same time as Red Bryant and Clemons. He needs to be in on any play call – 3rd and short against the run, 1st and 20 against the pass. He needs to read well in space, be aggressive against the run and get to the quarterback. He doesn’t need to be Jason Pierre-Paul or DeMarcus Ware, because this is another one of Pete Carroll’s specialist roles. The Seahawks won’t be drafting a prospect who necessarily puts up the big numbers or has the rare athleticism, but as part of a collective group, they have an essential role to play.

Since Carroll arrived in Seattle – facing a substantial rebuild as big as any in the NFL – he’s had to be both radical and patient. This off-season presents an opportunity to address the linebacker position, with David Hawthorne and Leroy Hill both entering the free-agent market and with other needs (QB, OL, DB, WR etc) addressed, at least for the immediate future. This coincides with a wealth of talent in the particular target areas discussed here.

I’ve included part of a presentation conducted by Carroll at a Nike coaching clinic during his time as Head Coach at USC. The colored words below are Carroll’s, per Trojan Football Analysis. Although there’s quite a lot of detail and X’s and O’s to this piece, it does explain the team’s base defense and how Upshaw or Ingram would be used as an ‘elephant’ or SLB if they’re taken with the 12th overall pick.

Pete Carroll:

The front of the defense is called a “4-3 under” defense. We use it in combination with different secondary schemes such as Cover 1, 2, 3, or man to man coverage, etc. I’ll start out by explaining the 4-3 under in conjunction with Cover 1. In this case we’ll call it Under-Cover-1 Flex (Diagram 1). The flex call means that free safety is going to the split end side of the offense. The word flex is just a term we use in reference to the split end side of the offensive line. The tight end side we call the solid side. From this front we get a “gap control” type of play. When you put a defensive lineman in a gap and tell him he has to control the gap he can play very aggressively. He can aggressively attack the line of scrimmage and not just read and react.

The more the attacking oriented the defense is the better off it will be. Obviously when you come off the ball, sometimes it is run and sometimes it is pass. We like to be in the mode of attacking the line of scrimmage, so when it is a pass we will get pressure on the quarterback.

Diagram 1. 4-3 Under-Cover 1-Flex Front

With this basic front we can get eight players in the box area of this defense on run plays. We are going to stop the run on defense very well when we use this front. In this defense we outnumber the offense. The defense has more players at the line than the offense can block.

The SLB plays the tight end in man-to-man with this front using outside leverage as he is aligned in a loose 9 technique. The SLB can not get hooked as he is playing outside leverage on all blocks. The nose tackle (NT) is in a 1 technique to the strong side. The defensive tackle (DT) is in a three technique to the weak side. The ends (DE) are in a 5 technique on the offensive tackles. The MLB has responsibility for the strong side B gap and the WLB for the weak side A gap.

The free safety (FS) is playing down to the line of scrimmage on run plays and is responsible for the number two receiver to the weak side of the formation on pass plays. He plays the receiver as well with outside leverage. It should allow him to play really aggressive in the running game because the running back can not beat the free safety coming out of the backfield. The WLB and MLB are bracketed on the other running back playing him in and out with outside leverage. The corners are matched up with the WR’s man-to-man in this scheme.

The thing that is challenging is the MLB defending the play action plays. However, he knows that he is vulnerable and can overplay to where he is vulnerable.

No matter what coverage you are playing you have to convince your players to win their leverage side. If the coach tells a player to play outside leverage and complains when a receiver catches a ball to his inside, the coach is wrong. When we give them a leverage side, we are telling them to just do that aspect right at least.

To take this even further for example we tell our corners to play inside leverage (i.e. to the inside shoulder of the receiver) in this defense. This helps the corner avoid giving up the big play to the inside of the field. If you want them to play the out route towards the sideline you have to give them someone playing support over the top. There is not a corner in college or the NFL that can both play the out routes and also avoid giving up the deep ball to the inside. You have to be realistic as to what your players can do. They only way a corner can play inside leverage and make a play on the out route is if the offense screws up or the quarterback makes a bad throw or the receiver runs a bad route. If you don’t understand that then you are asking the corner to do something he can’t do.

The flex side defensive end is playing on the outside shoulder of the offensive tackle in a 5 technique. He does not have to be a large player and can be more of a pass rushing end. The only thing he can not do is get hooked or reached by the defender and moved out of position. He can play pass first and still be effective. However he does have to maintain gap responsibility for the defense to work. The key to the defense is not getting hooked. If the solid side defensive end is aligned in the strong side C gap he simply can not get hooked. He has to control that gap as does each position on the defensive line.

If the offense comes out in a one back set everyone plays the same except for the free safety. He is still playing the number two receiver to the flex side but he has to move outside to cover him.

Diagram 2. One Back Set & Doubles

Diagram 3. Trips Set

To stay out of mismatches, the corners can take the wide receivers and match up with them (Diagram 4). If both wide receivers come to the same side, we can put both corners on them and cover the remaining receiver with the strong safety. If the corners are on the boundary side the free safety is in the middle. If the corners are on the other side of the field the strong safety is in the middle.

Diagram 4 Twin Doubles

The other one-back set we see a lot of is the one-back and two tight end set (Diagram 5). We put the free safety up on the second tight end. That gives you a problem with run support, but we can play it that way. Everything in the defense is basically the same.

Diagram 5. One-back and two tight ends set

If the offense comes out and gives the defense a two-back and two tight end look nothing changes for the defense (Diagram 6). The corner comes inside and plays man-to-man on the second tight end. Everyone else has the same match ups they had with any two-back sets.

Diagram 6. Two-back set with two tight ends

I want so show you how we react to the run so when you see the film you will know what we are doing (Diagram 7). Our defensive ends are aligned in 5 techniques. The nose tackle is in the A gap to the strong side in a one technique. The weak side defensive tackle is in a 3 technique off the outside shoulder of the guard. The WLB has the A gap to the weak side, but on plays to the strong side he has to get over the center’s block quickly. He cheats somewhat to the strong side with his alignment.

Everyone on the defense is turning the play inside. No one can ever get hooked. The MLB has the strong side B gap. If he is attacking in the B gap, he meets the block and turns it back inside. He plays with his head and outside arm free taking the block on with his inside shoulder. The free safety is our backside player. If the ball breaks back to the weak side A gap he has to make the play there. If there is a reverse run back the other way he has to make that play also. He generally does not cross the center line to make many plays.

Diagram 7. Strong side run responsibility

On the strong side if the offense is lined up in an I formation they have only four blockers to that side. The defense has four defenders and the WLB flowing fast to that side. Everyone on the defense is knocking the ball back inside to the WLB on this play.

If the ball is run to the weak side the MLB becomes the backside run player (Diagram 8). His play depends upon the direction of the run. He has to first defend against any cut back runs through the strong side B gap. If he needs to run through the backside B gap on plays away from him he can. The free safety can do the same thing on the plays away from him. If you ask the MLB to play the cutback and to get over the top then he is not going to be able to be aggressive.

Diagram 8. Weak side run responsibility

On plays to the strong side everyone plays with their outside arm free. If the SLB gets a down block from the tight end he rides him down and looks into the back field for the next block coming at him. On that block we ask him to wrong arm the block and bounce the ball outside. With that type of play we get what we call backer force. The MLB sees the power play going off tackle. He knows the SLB is going to bounce the play. He comes over the top and plays the ball with the strong safety coming up late to play the ball from the outside. Everyone plays with their outside arm free.

There are various adjustments we can make with our personnel. We can take our nose tackle and move him head-up onto the guard for example into what we call a G position. What we normally do is slant back to where we came from. As long as the defender keeps the ball on his inside shoulder he can play as fast as he wants to.

We can also use our base alignment to show overload to one side and then slant back to the other side before the snap of the ball. That is the flexibility of the defense.

There is a lot of flexibility for changing the force in this defensive scheme. If the offense picks up on the fact that the free safety is your weak side force man then they can develop schemes to make it hard for him. All we do then is to change the force on the play from the free safety to the corner in order to switch it up.

We can also change the force by slanting the defensive 3 technique and 5 techniques inside and scraping the WLB outside. We bring the corner off his wide out and make him the force man. He is playing the number 2 wide receiver out of the backfield and thus is the force man on the run to him. The free safety then rolls over the top of the corner into the deep half of the field. If you don’t want to play him in man-to-man you can play zone. With this kind of force change you can play quarter zone coverage to the strong side and half coverage to the weak side.

Most of the time we play our corners in some form of press coverage and have at least one safety deep in the hole for protection against the big play. Against some of the more spread out offenses we will back off our corners. With some spread formations we want to get the defensive backs eyes on the football. The deep safety is a player that is close to my heart. That is what I played. The deep safety has to play two routes. He has to defend the seam route and the post route. That is all I ask him to play. He has to find the seam route from the number two receiver. If there are two of them then he has to get in the middle and play them both. On the post route he has to stay on top of that route. That is easy to do but it becomes harder as offenses do more of it and get better at it.

In general we flip flop our defense. The SLB always goes to the tight end side. We often employ a rush and drop end from either side of the line. The rush guy goes with the SLB and the drop end goes with the WLB. The MLB aligns then to the SLB side of the play. The corners match up with the wide receivers and the safeties flip flop to the passing strength and running strength of the formation. This is our base defense.

As you can see, the base defense has a linebacker playing up at the LOS in each call. The determination to be strong against the run is described in detail, and a player like Courtney Upshaw would provide the kind of edge control the defense requires. The big issue that is often referred to on this blog is how Upshaw would deal in coverage versus a tight end, but I think this is adaptable. Carroll has consistently taken players (Red Bryant being the key example) and played up to their strengths, while minimising the weaknesses. Suggesting a possible adaptation or manipulation to suit a player such as Upshaw is not about changing the entire concept of the defense, it’s about limiting a weakness while still benefiting from the positives.

In many ways Upshaw is ideal for the elephant in that he can provide solid run defense but still rush the passer, as Enyeart testified in his quote at the top of this piece. If covering certain tight ends is an issue (it would be, certainly compared to a more athletic prospect such as Melvin Ingram and even he’d struggle against the best) then why can’t you work around that? One of Seattle’s tall and physical corners can move inside, the MLB can come across and cover. I would describe it as acknowledging that you can’t always find the perfect player for every role. If a prospect is ideal in every way but for a certain aspect (ie. coverage vs TE’s) then you work around it to benefit from the other positive aspects. That’s not such a major stretch and not a great detachment from game-planning to face a certain prospect in a given week. After all, it could be that in some cases against weaker tight-end opponents, you revert back to the original base-plan anyway. You’re not going to likely put a linebacker on Jimmy Graham anyway.

I think the information above will help paint a better picture of how Upshaw and Ingram would be used as an aggressive hybrid of the DE/LB position – an elephant. The reason Upshaw might have the edge is due to his superiority vs the run and his physicality, plus his ability to read in space. Ingram would still fill the role and would have other advantages, they’re just not as valued as the run defense aspect. I think the other goal aside from drafting for this position is to make the MLB and WLB as athletic as possible. Hawthorne is unsigned for a reason and I think the Seahawks would really like to install linebackers who can cover as almost a premium. This is why I believe Zach Brown could be an option, because his major positive coming into the league will be sideline-to-sideline mobility and coverage. If you have Brown covering the TE and one of the big corners in a 2TE set, you’re maxing out the potential of your elephant.

Elsewhere…

Mark Eckel of the Times has been surveying NFL scouts and personnel on the top defensive prospects in the 2012 draft. Here’s some of the quotes he received for the defensive lineman:

On Michael Brockers: “I think he’s the best DT in the draft. He can play the run and he has some pass rush.”

On Fletcher Cox: “He’s OK. He can be a bit of an enigma. He’s getting a little overhyped because of the Combine. He’s perfect for a 3-4 team as an end, I don’t like him as much in a 4-3.”

On Dontari Poe: “He’ll be overdrafted. He did all of that at the Combine, so some team will take him way higher than he should go. I mean watch him play, just watch. He didn’t do anything. And he wasn’t playing at a very high level, either. All I know is he had one sack last year and it came against Austin Peay. You probably didn’t even know Austin Peay had a football team.”

On Kendall Reyes: “Of all of them, he’s a pure 4-3 tackle, he can play the 3-technique for you.” Another scouts is quoted as saying: “He’s soft. He doesn’t finish.”

On Devon Still: “He was very inconsistent from what I saw. He’s going to need a lot of work. I think he’ll be all right, just not right away.”

On Jerel Worthy: “I don’t like him. He’s lazy and he’s not productive.”

On Alameda Ta’amu: “He’s a classic 3-4 nose. I’m not sure I like him in a 4-3.”

On Quinton Coples: “He’s good as hell, but he’s nuts. I’m not sure what’s up with him. I’d put him at left end in a 4-3, but he could do everything if he wants it.”

On Whitney Mercilus: “Those 16 sacks are a little deceiving. A lot of it was just cleaning up. He’s not good against the run at all, so he might have to be a situational pass rusher.”

On Jared Crick: “A lot of his sacks came when (Ndamukong) Suh was still there. A real try-hard guy. What you call a plugger.”

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