We’re well into the college season now so what can we say about the prospective 2019 draft class?
Not a lot, unfortunately.
It’s clear where the strength is — defensive front seven. That’s not such a bad thing for the Seahawks. It’s likely to be their focus in round one.
Apart from that? Here’s the early outlook:
— It’s very possible there won’t be a quarterback worth drafting in round one, let alone in the top-10.
— The top offensive lineman, Wisconsin’s David Edwards, is a right tackle. There isn’t a top-tier left tackle prospect destined for the top-10 and the depth is mediocre.
— LSU cornerback Greedy Williams could go early and Washington’s Byron Murphy looks the part. Neither player is a sure-fire top-10 prospect though. They might go early by default.
— The skill positions look particularly weak in terms of the first round. There’s no Saquon Barkley or Leonard Fournette destined for the top-five and there’s no receiver worthy of a high grade either.
There will be good players available. Nick Bosa and Clelin Ferrell are high picks in any draft. It’s not often you have such a wealth of talent on the defensive line and the depth is terrific. LSU’s Devin White is a fantastic inside linebacker prospect and Christian Wilkins is going to go very early as a highly athletic, ideal interior defender. Everyone knows about Ed Oliver, Brian Burns and Jachai Polite by now. Zach Allen, Raekwon Davis, Dexter Lawrence, Rashan Gary and Derrick Brown could all find a home in the top-15. Georgia’s D’Andre Walker is underrated and Kentucky’s Josh Allen is having a big season.
But here’s the issue. Without a cluster of options at different ‘premium’ positions, teams at the top are going to struggle to find value. A team in desperate need of a franchise quarterback likely won’t find a solution early in this draft. If you want a blind-side protecter at left tackle, good luck. If you want a dynamic corner or a #1 receiver — where are the options?
So we’ll likely see a number of defensive linemen and linebackers touted for the first round.
When the national focus turns towards the draft in January, I suspect we’ll hear a lot about this being a bad draft. Usually a good class includes at least a few QB’s, some skill position players and at least one good left tackle. The cupboard is bare.
It’s not a good year to pick in the top-10 either. The value at #5-10 might be similar to the value in the teens or 20’s.
And for anyone questioning Nick Bosa’s decision to sit the rest of the season out after surgery. Let’s be right here. There’s practically nobody competing to be the #1 pick right now. The only thing stopping him is another injury or another surgery. Question his decision if you want but realise the stakes. He’s virtually a lock to be the top choice in 2019.
Here’s a (very early) possible top-15:
1 New York Giants — Nick Bosa (DE, Ohio State)
2 San Francisco — Clelin Ferrell (DE, Clemson)
3 Oakland — Ed Oliver (DT, Houston)
4 Buffalo — Christian Wilkins (DT, Clemson)
5 Arizona — Devin White (LB, LSU)
6 Cleveland — Brian Burns (DE, Florida State)
7 Indianapolis — Raekwon Davis (DT, Alabama)
8 New York Jets — David Edwards (T, Wisconsin)
9 Jacksonville — Jachai Polite (DE, Florida)
10 Denver — Greedy Williams (CB, LSU)
11 Tennessee — Zach Allen (DE, Boston College)
12 Oakland — Rashan Gary (DE, Michigan)
13 Detroit — Derrick Brown (DT, Auburn)
14 Tampa Bay — D’Andre Walker (LB, Georgia)
15 Atlanta — Dexter Lawrence (DT, Clemson)
You might argue it’s unrealistic to see a top-15 so dominated by the defensive front seven. What’s the alternative though? Is a team going to make Missouri’s Drew Lock a top-10 quarterback? Is Ole Miss’ Greg Little really a left tackle or does he have to kick inside?
The Seahawks currently only have four picks in the 2019 draft. They’re unlikely to get much, if anything, in terms of comp picks. They don’t really have the trade options to generate more picks in the off-season.
It might not be the worst draft to have minimal stock. It’s just not particularly exciting. We’ll see if the combine throws up some intriguing athletes with upside. We’ll see if the Senior Bowl can shine a light on some under the radar prospects.
Increasingly it appears the Seahawks (and their estimated $60m in cap space for 2019) are best served re-signing their cluster of free agents. Frank Clark, D.J. Fluker, J.R. Sweezy, Justin Coleman and K.J. Wright (and/or Mychal Kendricks). They’re unlikely to have the spending power to be major players in free agency. They should have enough to make a few choice additions — similar to what we witnessed in 2018.
And then you make the most of your minimal draft stock with the priority likely to be another pass rusher, interior of EDGE.
It probably won’t be an exciting off-season. It doesn’t necessarily need to be. It seems like a lot of the hard work was done this year in changing the culture and reclaiming Seattle’s identity. They’re on the right track.
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