Month: February 2020 (Page 3 of 3)

Check out this latest podcast as Brandan and I discuss the draft and the Seahawks in great detail…

Today I wanted to run through what I think the priorities are for the Seahawks leading into the combine and beyond.

1. Establish a connection with Jadeveon Clowney

It makes no sense to launch a defensive line rebuild by letting the best player leave in free agency. Clowney will be expensive but that’ll be the case for any free agent addition. The Seahawks know what they’re getting with Clowney and he deserves the opportunity to play on a Seattle D-line with some actual pass-rushing support.

Although technically not allowed, it’s well known teams and agents talk at the combine and this is where demand and value tends to be established. By the end of the combine and heading into free agency, the Seahawks should have a strong indication of what it’ll cost to keep him. Unless the price is ridiculously high (+$25m a year) that will be the moment to come to an agreement to make sure the Seahawks are adding and not subtracting at their biggest position of need.

2. Find the value in free agency

The combine will also present an opportunity to find out what some of the other free agents are going to be looking for. The Seahawks will have their targets set and ready by now so this is a chance to find out what is realistic when the market opens.

Is a player like Dante Fowler or Arik Armstead going to be reasonably priced? Who are the players open to a prove-it contract? Which players are going to be paid way beyond Seattle’s valuation?

The Seahawks should be able to streamline their priority target list at the combine.

3. Uncover the trade market

This is also an opportunity to speak to teams about who might be available. Trades usually don’t often happen overnight. They are drawn out. The Seahawks can touch base with teams and gather information.

This works hand in hand with the combine workouts, too. For example, if there aren’t many players possessing the traits Seattle needs, it might be more tempting to use pick #27 to add a veteran instead. Equally, if the Seahawks feel they won’t find solutions in free agency, they can compare the value of #27 versus adding a veteran via trade.

This is the type of off-season where the Seahawks are going to look at every option — free agency, trade and draft. They know this is the time to be aggressive and add to what they have. They need to add difference makers, much like they did in 2013 with Harvin, Bennett and Avril.

4. Find the players with traits

The Seahawks like to look for players with special qualities — such as unique size, length, speed, quickness, explosive power or agility. Not every pick works out (Christine Michael, Malik McDowell) but Seattle’s had a lot of success overall picking players with standout athletic qualities (Okung, Thomas, Tate, Irvin, Wagner, Clark, Lockett, Metcalf etc).

This is a year to aim high. To try and replicate the success of D.K. Metcalf’s rookie season. A player with obvious physical talent who, for whatever reason, drops into range.

The combine will provide a clear picture on who those players are. Some early front runners include:

Isaiah Wilson (T, Georgia)
An enormous offensive tackle with fantastic length and physical tools. The NFL will probably be higher on him than the media and he might be off the board by #27 — but if his decision to declare prematurely as a redshirt sophomore makes him available, he’s one to watch.

Brandon Aiyuk (WR, Arizona State)
Like Wilson, he’ll probably be graded higher by the league than the media. Aiyuk is truly dynamic with stunning acceleration and quickness. He’s a playmaker and the type that would really compliment what Seattle already has at receiver. Plus he has major special teams value.

Jalen Reagor (WR, TCU)
He’s incredibly fast but also has explosive power. He’s capable of running deep on a go-route to make chunk plays but he’s also a genuine threat in the red zone due to his leaping ability. Reagor has special qualities and like all of the receivers in this list will have a terrific combine.

Henry Ruggs (WR, Alabama)
People have been predicting he’ll run a 4.2 since last summer and it shows on tape. Teams are always going to have to account for Ruggs with extra safety attention simply due to his game-breaking speed. There’s every chance he’ll go in the top-15 but if he lasts, he has the game-changing athleticism they need.

K.J. Hamler (WR, Penn State)
Hamler is diminutive but seems to have long arms despite his lack of height. He’s a dynamic playmaker with the ball and shows tremendous ability to dart beyond defender’s and turn a good play into a great play. He can also get downfield and provides special teams value.

Raekwon Davis (DT, Alabama)
There simply aren’t many 6-7, 315lbs defensive linemen who look like Davis. He’s a chiselled athlete who has the frame of Calais Campbell. His stats at Alabama have been poor the last two years but there’s just so much potential. If he lasts to #27 you’d be taking a gamble on improved production but his ceiling is elite.

There are others I could mention. J.K. Dobbins will probably have all the traits Seattle loves in a running back but I think it’s unlikely they target that position early.

5. Add good players

Having established what the free agent market will look like, the trade options and received information on the draft prospects at the combine — it’s time to do business. The top priority will be to improve the pass rush and the defensive line. The second priority will be to add a tight end.

Austin Hooper is reliable, consistent and has the size, length and agility testing they like at the position. He could be their big offensive splash in free agency. What they do defensively is less clear. We know who is likely to be available, who will almost certainly be tagged (Chris Jones, Yannick Ngakoue) and who might be available via trade (Calais Campbell? Everson Griffen?).

The key will be to leave the free agency period having addressed the defense and tight end position. The draft is strong at receiver and offensive line but weak for pass rushers and tight ends.

They also can’t rely on re-treads and comeback players. Ziggy Ansah, Luke Joeckel and Eddie Lacy types are not going to cut it. They need to be bold, aggressive and add 2-3 quality players.

6. Make a decision on the O-line

Pete Carroll wants consistency up front and rightly so. The Seahawks need to add, develop and upgrade when possible — not keep blowing up the line and making major changes. There’s unlikely to be big money available for this unit and a line full of rookie’s isn’t ideal either.

If Germain Ifedi is priced out of a return and moves on, the Seahawks could re-sign George Fant to provide some consistency. We’ll see if Mike Iupati has any interest in carrying on. They could sign a similar veteran on a cheap contract to provide a hedge for the draft (where there are strong guard options).

The big question mark remains the future of Justin Britt. His cap hit is very high for a player returning from ACL surgery. They could cut and re-sign him, they could just move on altogether or they could retain his contract (knowing they can still move on down the line). There are good options in the draft (Cesar Ruiz) and it’s very likely that Atlanta will cut Alex Mack to save some cap space.

7. Come out of the draft with upside talent

The Seahawks don’t need a major influx of rookie starter’s but it’d be a big help if they can find dynamic athlete’s who can at least contribute. They especially need to be faster and more physical on defense. On offense, it’d be nice to add even more potency and quickness.

The players identified above include a hulking offensive lineman and several dynamic, sudden receivers. Defensively they need speed and alpha’s. Keep an eye on small-school safety Kyle Dugger as a player they could target quite strongly with his physical style of play, raw speed, dog-mentality and special teams value. LSU defensive tackle Rashard Lawrence plays with great intensity and let’s see how far Damon Arnette falls — because he’s a very talented cornerback with good size and he’s extremely physical.

What they do in free agency and/or the trade market will likely determine their 2020 fate but a good, high-upside draft class can still make a big difference.

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One of the best days of the NFL Draft season is Lance Zierlein publishing his draft reports. For the full list, click here. Whether you agree or disagree with Lance’s grades and analysis, it’s a tireless effort to put so many reports together.

Better yet, there’s no paywall.

I’d recommend reading the reports in full. There are some I strongly agree with (and others I would disagree equally strongly with). However, I wanted to post Lance’s top grades per position below.

Here’s how Lance distinguishes his grades:

7.3-7.5 — perennial pro-bowler
7.0-7.1 — pro-bowl talent
6.7-6.8 — year-one quality starter
6.5 — boom or bust prospect
6.3-6.4 — will be a starter within two seasons
6.1-6.2 — good backup who could become a starter
6.0 — developmental prospects

If a player isn’t listed below, it’s because he didn’t receive a high enough grade.

One thing to look for is any player praised for their toughness and/or leadership. The Seahawks appeared to focus on that quite a lot last year. For example, blog favourite Rashard Lawrence is described as such:

“Plays with dog mentality and is ready to turn any rep into a street fight if he needs to. Lawrence’s leadership and toughness stand out on the defensive side of the ball. He plays with pain and never shortchanges teammates in the effort department.”

Unique traits and athleticism with the high pick, generally high-leadership and toughness throughout the class. These are things to look for in the write-ups.

Quarterbacks

Joe Burrow — 7.07
Tua Tagovailoa — 6.82
Justin Herbert — 6.45
Jordan Love — 6.33
Jake Fromm — 6.29
Jacob Eason — 6.29

Running backs

D’Andre Swift — 6.81
Jonathan Taylor — 6.46
Zack Moss — 6.45
Clyde Edwards-Helaire — 6.42
J.K. Dobbins — 6.38
Cam Akers — 6.35
Javon Leake —- 6.30
A.J. Dillon — 6.25
Eno Benjamin — 6.23

Wide receivers

Jerry Jeudy — 6.86
Ceedee Lamb — 6.86
Laviska Shenault Jr — 6.50
Henry Ruggs — 6.49
Tee Higgins — 6.48
Justin Jefferson — 6.41
Chase Claypool — 6.40
Jalen Reagor — 6.39
Michael Pittman — 6.38
K.J. Hamler — 6.37
Brandon Aiyuk — 6.36
Bryan Edwards —- 6.29
Van Jefferson — 6.27
Antonio Gandy-Golden — 6.27
Denzel Mims — 6.25

Tight end

Harrison Bryant — 6.44
Devin Asiasi —- 6.35
Cole Kmet — 6.34
Jared Pinkney — 6.32
Albert Okwuegbunam — 6.30
Hunter Bryant — 6.20
Adam Trautman — 6.20

Offensive line

Jedrick Wills — 7.07
Tristan Wirfs — 6.49
Mekhi Becton — 6.49
Andrew Thomas — 6.48
Josh Jones — 6.42
Cesar Ruiz — 6.41
John Simpson — 6.39
Tyre Phillips —- 6.36
Austin Jackson — 6.34
Prince Tega Wanogho — 6.30
Lloyd Cushenberry — 6.30
Isaiah Wilson — 6.28
Lucas Niang — 6.28

Defensive line

Chase Young — 7.40
Derrick Brown — 7.16
Raekwon Davis — 6.70
Javon Kinlaw — 6.70
Yetur Gross-Matos — 6.50
A.J. Epenesa — 6.47
Ross Blacklock — 6.40
Jordan Elliott — 6.38
Marlon Davidson — 6.35
Alton Robinson —- 6.33
Jonathan Greenard — 6.31
Justin Madubuike — 6.30
Julian Okwara — 6.26
Jason Strowbridge — 6.26

Linebacker

Isaiah Simmons — 7.08
K’Lavon Chaisson — 6.88
Patrick Queen — 6.76
Zack Braun — 6.73
Kenneth Murray — 6.48
Jordan Brooks —- 6.37
Malik Harrison — 6.36
Anfernee Jennings — 6.35
Terrell Lewis — 6.35
Joshua Uche — 6.26

Cornerback

Jeff Okudah — 7.15
C.J. Henderson — 6.77
Cameron Dantzler — 6.43
Jaylon Johnson — 6.43
Trevon Diggs — 6.39
Jeff Gladney — 6.39
A.J. Terrell —- 6.36
Stanford Samuels —- 6.33
Bryce Hall — 6.32
Amik Robertson — 6.32
Kristian Fulton — 6.29
Noah Igbinoghene — 6.29

Safety

Xavier McKinney — 6.70
Grant Delpit — 6.45
Antoine Winfield Jr — 6.36
Ashtyn Davis — 6.33
Kyle Dugger — 6.32
Terrell Burgess — 6.20

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Teddy Bridgewater swaps New Orleans for Carolina

At least one prediction for all 32 teams. These are just my guesses. Nothing is sourced. Nothing should be taken too seriously.

Cincinnati
The Bengals will be offered major compensation for the #1 pick and there’ll possibly even some pressure from Joe Burrow’s camp to accept a trade. Yet with the most stubborn owner in the league running the franchise like a family business, he won’t budge and they’ll take him. Even if Burrow threatened never to pull on a Bengals jersey.

Cleveland
There will be an acknowledgement that they need to invest more in the offensive line and two key linemen will be added — one veteran and one high draft pick.

Pittsburgh
They will put the franchise tag on Bud Dupree and might consider drafting a QB early (their first pick is in round two). They need to turn over every stone with Big Ben nearing the end.

Baltimore
They will tag Matt Judon but will be open to any reasonable trade offers to move him.

New England
Tom Brady will re-sign. Because of course he will. There’s no way he’s going to play somewhere else now and as if the Patriots are going to start chatting up Teddy Bridgewater or Jameis Winston or Andy Dalton. No.

Miami
The Dolphins will start making it known to the media that they like Joe Burrow. It’ll be a nudge to the player to see if they can ‘pull an Eli’.

Buffalo
The Bills will make an aggressive move this off-season. They’re developing nicely but they need a jolt. They’re in the ‘good not great’ category. It could be a trade up or a free agency splash.

New York Jets
The Jets will focus on building an offensive line for Sam Darnold and landing a weapon for him too.

Indianapolis
The Colts could end up with Tua Tagovailoa. They might trade into the top-five. They could simply land him at #13. Or the Colts could even move into the back-end of round one if the hip injury puts teams off.

Houston
The Texans have played their hand and their off-season priority will be locking down the quarterback and left tackle to long term contracts.

Jacksonville
The Jaguars will cut Marcell Dareus and a handful of other fringe players, enabling them to franchise tag Yannick Ngakoue.

Tennessee
The Titans will find a way to keep both Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry. They need both players to return.

Kansas City
The Chiefs will cut or trade Sammy Watkins, creating the cap space to franchise tag Chris Jones.

Denver
The Broncos will have an aggressive off-season having seen division rival Kansas City win the Super Bowl. It’s probably best they build gradually but there will be some impatience in the building.

Las Vegas
Despite all the talk about adding a new quarterback, the Raiders will flirt with a few and end up settling back down with old faithful — Derek Carr.

LA Chargers
The Chargers will acquire Cam Newton via trade and will draft a longer-term heir apparent too (Justin Herbert?).

Green Bay
They will focus on offense after years of building the defense. That could include drafting a receiver early and maybe even trying to tempt Washington with a trade for Trent Williams.

Chicago
The Bears say they’re sticking by Mitchell Trubisky but behind the scenes they’ll be planning to acquire a QB as their answer to Ryan Tannehill (Andy Dalton?).

Minnesota
They are stuck in a cap mess so will cut or trade Everson Griffen, will look to trade Stefon Diggs and this will be a last chance for Mike Zimmer and Rick Spielman to win with this group before some changes occur.

Detroit
The Lions won’t trade Darius Slay because they’ll ask for too much in return. They’ll be open to it, though.

Dallas
The Cowboys will re-sign Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper to long term contracts — eventually.

Philadelphia
The Eagles will trade up in the draft for a receiver.

New York Giants
The Giants will seek to trade down even though Dave Gettleman doesn’t have a history of doing so. I just get the feeling that Jerry Jeudy will be their guy. They’ll want Daniel Jones to have a go-to target. #4 is a bit early for Jeudy but then #6 was for Jones and they took him anyway, so maybe they just repeat the act.

Washington
The Redskins sign Greg Olsen and then go back in free agency to get another former Panther in the form of cornerback James Bradbury. Then they select Chase Young and hope Alex Smith might just be able to return.

New Orleans
The Saints bring back Drew Brees for one more tilt at avoiding the bad luck that has dogged this team in the playoffs over the years.

Tampa Bay
The Buccs bring back Jameis Winston when he discovers his market is cold. They have a serious talk with Philip Rivers too as a viable alternative but he ends up retiring.

Atlanta
The Falcons have no cap space so they cut Alex Mack and try to create some room to bring in a pass rusher. They know it’ll be tough to find one with the #16 pick.

Carolina
The Panthers sign Teddy Bridgewater as the replacement for Cam Newton, who is traded to the LA Chargers.

San Francisco
Rather than retreat into their shell after the Super Bowl, the Niners make a splash somehow. I’m not sure what it is. It could be an Odell Beckham Jr trade or a Stefon Diggs trade. I think they’ll do something, though.

LA Rams
What can they do? They’ve no picks or cap space. So the only solid prediction to make is they’ll extend Jalen Ramsey’s contract.

Arizona
The Cardinals focus on the offensive line this off-season as a priority.

Seattle
The Seahawks have an aggressive off-season similar to 2013 — with a few surprise moves along the way. They’ll kick things off by retaining Jadeveon Clowney.

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1. Everything is easier when you can rush with four

If you’d never seen the Kansas City Chiefs play before, you might’ve expected some new-age football last night.

People make it seem like they’re playing a different sport sometimes.

Yet all it took to make them look pretty normal for three and a bit quarters was a good four-man pass rush.

You could clearly see Patrick Mahomes was flustered. The Niners were able to drop bodies in coverage and still create pressure. This wasn’t rocket science from the Niners. It was simply talent up front allowing them to play what is, essentially, a very conservative scheme. The same used in Seattle.

This wasn’t Gregg Williams’ 10,000 different blitzes or Todd Bowles sending the house every down. It was simply a quality pass rushing quartet enabling everyone else to take away the deep threat and explosive plays. Mahomes either didn’t have time to throw downfield or players simply weren’t open.

The Niners don’t have a Legion of Boom secondary. They have some good players but there’s no Earl or Kam. Richard Sherman looked like he’s nearly 32 towards the end of the game.

They have good, young, quick linebackers. Again though, not of the Patrick Willis standard or Bobby Wagner at his peak.

The 49ers’ defense works so well because they can rush with four. It’s actually as entertaining to watch as anything else in the sport. A truly excellent and dynamic pass rush is exhilarating. The Niners possess that.

The Seahawks need to acquire the pieces this off-season so they too can reliably rush with four (as they could in the Bennett and Avril days). That’s the only way their scheme can function properly and it’s mission #1 this off-season.

They can’t go out and draft two top-five picks and two top-20 picks like the Niners while also trading for Dee Ford. They can add pieces to their D-line though — starting by keeping Jadeveon Clowney — to provide a much more consistent and threatening group in 2020.

They need talent. No hoping a rookie pans out or that a guy with a busted shoulder and history of injuries can ready himself to play. Talent and production and quality. That’s the order of the day. They have the cap room to make it happen and the draft picks to use if needed in the trade market.

Get Clowney back in the building and get him a proper partner to get after the quarterback. Clowney is a supercharged Michael Bennett. Now go get a Cliff.

2. The Seahawks need a quality tight end

It’s pretty remarkable watching the 49ers offense. Everything is very well crafted and executed. It seems relatively straight forward though. They’ll motion Kittle across the line to get a nice match-up then have him run right across the formation. They’ll have Kittle run across the middle to draw the safety then have two receivers run routes in behind. They’ll use misdirection to set up tricky little perimeter runs.

We’re not watching new-age football here. A lot of it’s just good execution.

What’s indisputable though is how much George Kittle just makes it all tick. Without him, it runs the risk of all being a bit basic. If you guard the perimeter and you don’t have to double Kittle, you’re really just dealing with a fairly standard set of concepts. As soon as Kittle’s on the field they can move him around to get him matched up against certain players, he draws coverage to open up team mates. Even when he’s covered you can throw it up to him. And he’s such an outstanding blocker.

Kittle is an absolute game changer for the Niners. He’s their best player on offense and you could even make a case for saying he tops Nick Bosa for most talented player on the roster overall.

The Seahawks aren’t going to be able to go out and get a George Kittle. 30 other teams would love to do the same. They need something though. Someone who can provide those same mismatch opportunities. A really dynamic tight end is a vital piece to any offense.

It’s not just Kittle either. Look at the impact Travis Kelce has in Kansas City. Tyler Higbee has developed into a massive part of the Rams’ offense. Where would the Eagles be without Zach Ertz? Look at the impact of Darren Waller for the Raiders.

Whether it’s through free agency, the draft or via a trade — tight end is a vital off-season need, second only to the pass rush.

3. They have to come up with a plan to defend the perimeter run

The Chiefs played somewhat like the Seahawks in this game. They didn’t really turn it on until the end, when a roaring comeback sealed the win. They remained balanced, finishing with 29 runs for 129 yards to go with Mahomes’ late flourish. This felt a little bit like the week 17 Seahawks/Niners game, with the Chiefs simply finishing the job.

They were also fairly terrible at defending the perimeter run.

The 49ers might’ve had a variety of ways to try and deceive the Chiefs but essentially, they tried to get the ball-carrier to the left edge with blockers in front time and time again. And it worked. They essentially looked the Chiefs in the eye and said, ‘we’re going to do this until you find a way to stop it’.

I’m not sure they were ever going to find that answer. In fact, had they stuck to it at the end rather than putting the ball in Jimmy Garoppollo’s hands, we might be talking about a Niners win. Tyrann Mathieu was screaming on the sidelines at one point in frustration. Frank Clark was burying his face in an oxygen mask. For all the talk afterwards of not losing hope — Mahomes looked dejected for most of the second half. The Niners were comfortable — much like they were in week 17.

It brought back a lot of bad memories.

The Seahawks were so bad at defending the perimeter run, Pete Carroll listed it as a specific area for improvement this off-season. If they’re going to face the Rams, Niners and Cardinals for six games a season, they need to come up with a solution.

I suspect the base-defense plan for 2019 was partly to try and handle this. We saw Bill Belichick use safety’s in the last Super Bowl to stymy some of LA’s misdirection and stretch plays. Mychal Kendricks isn’t a safety but he runs a 4.4. Again, people can criticise the end product but I think the plan made sense.

Seattle has speed at the second level but I think it needs aggressive quickness too. When teams get to the perimeter like this, you’re going to face blockers. You’re going to need to work through traffic. You’re going to need to battle a bit and then make a tackle. You’ve got to be more physical than the guy across from you.

Too often the Seahawks got pushed around in these situations. Nobody could get off a block. Receivers and tight ends were handling their guys. Heck, even Aaron Rodgers managed to block Cody Barton at Lambeau.

Next time, stick him on his backside. Or be quicker to the ball.

This is also an area where improved tackling can help. As we’ve discussed a lot, Seattle’s tackling form was statistically very poor in 2019.

If a team tries to attack the perimeter and doesn’t get anywhere early in a game, they’ll probably move off it pretty quickly. Otherwise they’ll keep going to the well, just as the Niners did. Seattle can’t allow opponents to keep going to the well in 2020.

4. The Niners have a great coach and a highly talented team but…

If you don’t trust your quarterback to run a two-minute offense with three time-outs on the board before half-time that’s a problem.

Garoppollo is neat and tidy. He executes a lot of what Shanahan needs him to do. For the most part he delivers a pass that is on-time, to the right receiver. They didn’t fluke 13 wins and a Super Bowl appearance. The quarterback played his part.

He’s not special though, is he? It’s possible the Niners will be right back in contention again next year. They are rich in talent on the D-line and with Kittle. Shanahan, despite blowing two healthy Super Bowl leads, is a tremendous coach and figure-head.

They’re in the Jared Goff zone though. Both Garoppollo and Goff have been to Super Bowl’s and they’ve been paid hefty salaries. Yet you just know they’ll never quite be great.

There’s a new era of young QB’s coming through — DeShaun, Lamar, Mahomes, Dak — paired with Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers. I don’t think any of those players depend on scheme. In Los Angeles and San Francisco — the coaches and the scheme are the most important factor. Not the quarterbacks.

Given Shanahan’s clear qualities, visision and veto on decision making, it’s surprising that he didn’t think Mahomes or Watson were worthy of being his QB in 2017. Instead they took Solomon Thomas at #3 and eventually traded for Garoppollo on October 31st that year. Hindsight is a great thing, of course. Thomas was excellent at Stanford and hasn’t delivered in the NFL. Imagining this Niners team with either at quarterback, however, is a scary prospect.

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For the last couple of days I’ve been bed-ridden. Initially I thought it was food poisoning. Now I think it’s a virus. Either way, apologies for the lack of posts. I won’t be watching the Super Bowl either.

(The last Super Bowl I watched live was five years ago anyway)

However, I did want to write down some notes today (if nothing else to give me something to do).

Why do no mock drafts have Tua falling?

If you read any mock draft these days, you’re almost certain to see Tua Tagovailoa placed in the top-five.

It’s entirely possible, of course. Tagovailoa is a talented player and the NFL is a quarterback league.

Yet nobody appears willing to consider another very real scenario — that the serious hip injury that ended his 2019 season (not to mention the other injuries he had in college) could lead to a fall.

David Geier at Forbes wrote this piece on the hip injury, the recovery process and the possible long-term impact.

Maybe the high-profile media types are simply giving him the benefit of the doubt? Talking about the likelihood of him falling in the draft due to a serious injury would be difficult for the player. Yet it probably warrants a deeper conversation than simply inserting him into the top-five with a cursory reference that teams ‘will do their checks’.

Taking a player in the top-five comes with $30m in guaranteed cash. Simply put, teams will not have enough information about his health by the end of April. They probably won’t know if he’s capable of returning to the field at the level he showed at Alabama for another 6-12 months.

To me that seems like a big gamble. And for a team like Miami — so desperately trying to find ‘the guy’ — can they really afford to invest a top-five pick in him? Do they want to redshirt him for a year, all the while keeping their fingers crossed he’ll stay healthy and be the answer? We’ll see what they decide. Some gambles are worth taking. Sometimes you’ve got to walk away.

If I was to publish a mock draft today, I’d put him in the late 20’s or 30’s. Possibly with a team trading back into round one. The difference? You’re only paying $10m guaranteed, there’s not as much pressure on the pick to work out and trading into the back-end of round one is relatively inexpensive.

Don’t be surprised if Justin Herbert is the only other quarterback to go in the top-10 after Joe Burrow is selected by Cincinnati. Herbert has the arm, the ideal size and the improvisational skills teams look for. He has plenty to work on but there’s also plenty to work with.

There are too many forgotten players this year

The draft media has been quite willing to promote players like K’Laivon Chaisson into the top half of round one (with his 6.5 sacks and regular use on stunts). We’ve also seen the rapid rise of Mekhi Becton and a few others.

Yet it feels like a lot of legitimate prospects within this class are suddenly being ignored with no real explanation why.

The most egregious example is Grant Delpit. He didn’t have an amazing 2019 season but he played through an injury. He has everything — speed, talent, length, versatility. He can play either safety spot and could even be switched to cornerback.

The only serious complaint I’ve seen about him is tackling form. Fair enough. Yet the same people making those remarks are putting Xavier McKinney in the top-20. McKinney is a likeable, competitive individual. But tackling has never been a positive for him and most of his ‘success’ at Alabama came playing up at the LOS blitzing into the backfield. Which, of course, you can do a lot if you’re Alabama and not so much in the NFL unless you’re running Todd Bowles’ scheme.

Last week Lance Zierlein didn’t even include Delpit in the first round of his initial mock draft. Daniel Jeremiah had him at #23. Both had McKinney at #17 to Dallas.

What’s the explanation for this?

Delpit is the most extreme example. What about Price Tega Wanogho? He had a very solid final year at Auburn. He didn’t perform at the Senior Bowl but he measured at 6-5 and 307lbs with +33 inch arms and 10 1/8 inch hands.

‘The Prince’ was the #24 player on Bruce Feldman’s freaks list this year. In that article it was suggested he can run a 4.95 forty and jump a 32-inch vertical. He can bench 415lbs and squat 560lbs.

“He’s a great testament to taking his development seriously,” says Auburn strength coach Ryan Russell. “He came in at 260 and is consistently 310-315 now without losing speed, agility or capability. He has progressed every year.”

For most of the college season he was talked about as a relatively high pick. There’s very little on tape that would suggest he wouldn’t be. There are things to work on for sure. That’s the case with all rookie linemen. Yet Tega Wanogho is virtually the forgotten man of the draft while Becton, Jedrick Wills and Josh Jones are the ones everyone is talking about.

Isaiah Wilson is another. He had a tremendous season for Georgia. Jake Fromm had a ridiculous amount of time in the pocket during the 2019 season thanks to the amazing Georgia O-line. He’s an absolute beast in the running game and has the athleticism to develop as a pass-protector. Nobody ever talks about him.

Considering he declared a redshirt sophomore, it seems at least somewhat likely he received positive feedback on his draft prospects. Yet you barely ever see him in any mock drafts or hear his name mentioned. Why?

I’d say the same for Cesar Ruiz too. He appears in the occasional first round mock draft but we’re talking about a top-talent here at an increasingly important position. It’s nice that Lloyd Cushenberry had a good Senior Bowl but there’s no question — none at all — about who the top center is in this draft. It’s Ruiz.

I could go on. You’ll see Zack Braun and Chaisson mocked in round one but little mention of the quicker, more orthodox DE in Julian Okwara projected in the first. Raekwon Davis has rare size and while he didn’t deliver as hoped the last two seasons — there aren’t many human’s with his frame capable of doing what he does. Lucas Niang seems to have dropped off the radar due to his injury. Jalen Reagor had to deal with one of the worst QB’s situations in the NCAA and seems to be suffering now as a consequence despite his very obvious and clear physical, athletic and technical talent.

Everything just feels a bit ‘off’ at the moment. We’ll see how it plays out.

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