Month: October 2020 (Page 3 of 3)

It’s not often you find players with the size, proportioned body weight and ability to drop the anchor as a nose tackle with the elite athleticism to work openings in the pass rush and move across the line to present attacking opportunities from different positions.

NC State’s Alim McNeil is a rare find.

I watched him against Virginia today and it was an exciting experience. Not just because he managed to tip a pass into the air, catch it himself and then run it back (while breaking a tackle) for an 18-yard touchdown.

He’s listed at 6-2 and 320lbs. You can load him up inside and he can handle blockers to control the running game. Double teams can’t shift him. Against Virginia he dominated with NC State giving up just 63 yards on 26 carries (2.4 YPC) until late in the fourth quarter and the game was over.

That’s not the exciting bit though. You can always find big, powerful nose tackles. It’s the athleticism that goes with it that is exceptional.

I’ve not see many men his size move with the freedom he does. He has a first round athletic profile.

At SPARQ he ran a fantastic 4.96 forty and then, unbelievably, followed it up with a 4.27 short shuttle. To put that into perspective, Joey Bosa ran a 4.21 at his combine. Montez Sweat ran a 4.29. Bradley Chubb ran a 4.41. Malik McDowell ran a 4.53.

Players with his size simply don’t possess his level of agility.

He’s also highly explosive — jumping a 34-inch vertical.

If he gets anywhere near these numbers at the combine — there’s a distinct possibility he will fly up draft boards.

Tony Pauline graded him in round four during the summer but for me he’s destined to go much earlier. He is going to rise when people get to know him.

Watching him today and on tape from other games is a real treat. His ability to shift across the line has to be seen to be believed. He’s like a stunting EDGE. He has complete control of his feet and he uses minimal steps to work to openings and explode into the backfield. When he engages at the LOS he drives defenders deep into the pocket with power. He locks on and finishes. He’ll take a center for a ride and bull rush to the QB.

McNeill has a terrific swim move to break free from initial contact. You can line him up at the five technique to attack the B gap. He’s just too slippery, too quick — yet with the frame of a bulldozing defensive tackle. It catches blockers off guard.

Incredibly he has minimal bad weight. He’s a big dude — but he looks in fantastic shape. There’s amazing definition in his arms and he isn’t carrying a big gut. Dare I say — he almost looks a little bit like Aaron Donald at times. He’s compact, explosive, cat-quick and put-together. He blows up the interior the same way Donald did at Pittsburgh too.

Yet you can also use him on early downs to control the interior running game:

Let me be clear — he isn’t Donald. Nobody is. It’s just very unusual to see a complete defensive tackle with the power, size and control McNeill possesses combined with unique agility.

I’ve not been this excited about a defensive tackle in a long time. If he continues to play like he did today against Virginia and if he tests as well as expected at the combine, I doubt Seattle will have much of a chance at drafting him. Yet he’s amazingly talented and worth keeping an eye on just in case. He could be a big riser over the coming weeks.

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Advanced stats review for week four

It was very evident that Seattle blitzed a lot less in Miami and that shows up in their blitz percentage for the season — which has dropped to 30.2% from 36% last week.

It’s also clear that Seattle is essentially stuck between a rock and a hard place in terms of trying to create sacks. They know they don’t have anyone on the D-line they can rely on to win 1v1. The pass rush has never looked this weak. As a consequence, they’ve had to blitz a lot to try and manufacture pressure.

That in turn led to a ton of explosive plays and yards being conceded. Seattle remains #2 in the NFL for explosive plays given up (20) behind only the hapless Atlanta Falcons (21). They have given up 1604 passing yards which is still easily first in the league. The second placed team, Atlanta, have conceded 1366 yards.

Seattle has given up 1111 air yards, the most in the NFL. Second placed Cleveland have given up 813. The Seahawks have given up 609 yards after the catch — third most in the league behind only Arizona and Las Vegas.

The Seahawks are also conceding 7.8 yards per pass attempt.

So they reigned things back against the Dolphins. The blitzing was replaced by a much more conservative approach which clearly suited the second level defenders. The big question now is — how do they create pressure playing this way?

Even taking the Miami game into consideration, the Seahawks have blitzed 65 times this season — third most in the league behind only Baltimore and Buffalo and level with Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh.

Despite missing the Miami game, Jamal Adams (31) remains the fourth most blitzed player in the league behind only Alexander Johnson, Shaquil Barrett and Matt Judon.

Bobby Wagner has blitzed 21 times — 20th most among all players.

The blitzing enables Seattle to lead the NFL in QB knockdowns (20) and their knockdown percentage of 10% is ninth best in the league.

They have 21 TFL’s so far — sixth highest in the league. Jamal Adams, Alton Robinson and Poona Ford have three TFL’s. K.J. Wright and Benson Mayowa have two. Bobby Wagner, Ugo Amadi, Quinton Dunbar, Lano Hill, Bruce Irvin, L.J. Collier, Bryan Mone and Anthony Rush have one each.

Unsurprisingly the heaviest blitzers — Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay — lead this category with the lowly Jets having the same number as Seattle. Again, as we’ve discussed, blitzing clearly manufactures production in the way of pressures, QB hits and TFL’s. The key to whether you’re succeeding doing it is sack percentage and that’s where Seattle is struggling because they don’t have a proper starting DE on the roster.

The Seahawks have only six sacks in four games. Only five teams have fewer sacks (Detroit, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Las Vegas, Carolina). Despite blitzing so much, their pressure percentage is 20.5% — just outside the bottom third in the league.

Seattle’s sack percentage dropped from 3.1% to 2.9% after the Miami game. It’s now the second worst mark in the league behind only Carolina (2.0%). That’s the statistic, in my opinion, that is the most concerning for this team.

Snacks Harrison, who is joining Seattle’s practise squad and will eventually be added to the 53-man roster, is not going to make a jot of difference in terms of sacks. He has just 11 sacks in his eight-year career. He’s a run-stuffing, classic nose tackle.

Their ability to find someone — anyone — who can win off the edge in 1v1 situations is the key to the Seahawks truly elevating their defensive performance. I still think they should be aggressive in the trade market to solve this problem.

Pull this off and we could easily see a rapid improvement. Clearly some things are working. Their turnover percentage is 17.8% — the fifth best mark in the league. That’s likely why the Seahawks are ranked 21st on defense per DVOA (and not lower). Add a pass rusher and who knows what they could achieve?

The Dolphins carried on the trend of opponents not running against the Seahawks. People have put this down to ‘great run defense’ but it’s more a result of scoreboard pressure and Seattle’s inability to defend the pass.

Miami running backs only carried the ball 15 times on Sunday. Myles Gaskin managed 40 yards on his ten carries.

As a consequence of this performance, where the Seahawks gave up 103 rushing yards, their expected points contributed by the rushing defense dropped from around three points to -0.97.

Seattle’s passing defense has an expected points contributed tally of -50.09 — sixth worst in the league behind Atlanta, Jacksonville, the Jets, New Orleans and Dallas.

A lot of people seem to want Dan Quinn back in Seattle if he’s fired by the Falcons. His defense has an expected points contributed by the pass-defense of -76.46 — by far the worst record in the league in this category. You might also notice that Quinn’s defense is among the worst across the board in most categories and he’s leading an 0-4 team.

Shaquill Griffin has been targeted 36 times this season, second most in the league. He’s given up the second most completions (24). Tre Flowers has given up 23 completions despite only starting two games. Griffin has given up the most yards in the NFL (348) and Flowers is third on the list (290).

The Seahawks have only missed 19 tackles so far — a big improvement on last season. That’s the third best tally in the NFL.

It’s well known that Seattle’s special teams is excelling. The Seahawks force their opponents on average to start drives on the 21-yard line. That’s the best record in the league and a credit to the punting of Michael Dickson and the kick-coverage.

Roster moves

On top of Snacks Harrison joining the practise squad, the Seahawks also added Jonathan Bullard to their 53-man roster (with Neiko Thorpe heading to IR).

Bullard was a highly rated prospect in 2016 who somewhat unexpectedly fell to round three. After an underwhelming period in Chicago he had a year with the Cardinals and was recently on their practise squad.

His main issue was size. His best position was operating as an interior disruptor yet at 285lbs he wasn’t going to be able to play early downs. Yet equally he lacked the length and profile to play as a defensive end who kicks inside.

He does have a desirable profile though with 33.5 inch arms, a 1.65 10-yard split, a 4.56 short shuttle and a 9-8 broad jump. He’s explosive and aggressive and had a superb highlights reel at Florida.

The Seahawks might utilise him as a specialist interior rusher. They could also have him offer some depth at the five-technique seeing as Rasheem Green is still out. It’s an interesting addition.

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Time to tap into the Belichick tree

I had an opportunity to watch most of the Rams vs Giants game on Sunday and suddenly got a great sense of déjà vu.

Los Angeles only managed 240 total yards on offense — the worst performance since Sean McVay was appointed Head Coach.

They stuttered and stalled and simply couldn’t move the ball.

If it wasn’t for bad mistakes by the New York offense and a blown coverage on a 55-yard touchdown to Cooper Kupp — the Rams would’ve lost and would’ve barely reached double figures in points.

It felt a lot like Super Bowl LIII.

On that night the Patriots held the Rams to 260 total yards and three points — despite LA dominating the league for the entire regular season with a prolific, unstoppable offense.

So what’s the consistent feature here?

Bill Belichick’s plan.

The Patriots had two weeks to prepare for the Super Bowl and cooked up a scheme that could possibly be Belichick’s greatest coaching achievement. Holding McVay’s Rams to three points was incredible.

He tackled LA’s endless misdirection and desire to reach the perimeter by installing athletic players up at the line of scrimmage with the ability to operate in space once they’d diagnosed the play and fly to the ball carrier.

Steven Ruiz provides a breakdown here:

In order to defend the Rams’ deadly outside-zone running game, Belichick played the exact same front. He played a four-man defensive line but flanked it with Patrick Chung and Donta Hightower, creating a six-man surface for the Patriots defense. The Rams weren’t going to get an on edge on this front.

Los Angeles, which ran outside zone more than any other team in the league, ran it just three times against New England. That’s why we saw so little of Todd Gurley, who lost snaps to C.J. Anderson for the second game in a row.

Throwing out the six-man line served its purpose … just like it did when Belichick used the same exact front the slow down the Bears in the 1990 playoffs. Chicago finished that season second in the league in rushing. Against Belichick’s surprise six-man front, the Bears managed only 27 rushing yards on 16 attempts. Nearly three decades later, the strategy worked again, holding a Rams run game that finished third in rushing to 62 yards.

Fast forward nearly three years and here’s a New York Giants team led by Joe Judge — a long time Patriots special teams coordinator — enjoying the same success.

How many rushing yards did the Giants give up against the Rams on Sunday?

58 yards on 23 attempts for an average of 2.5 per attempt.

It worked again.

They’ve found the secret formula to limit the Rams.

Let’s compare this to Seattle’s performance against the same offense. In the last five games between the teams, LA scored 42, 33, 36, 29 and 28 points.

Here’s the total offensive yardage conceded in each game:

2017 (H) — 352
2018 (A) — 468
2018 (H) — 456
2019 (H) — 477
2019 (A) — 455

The Seahawks have a 1-4 record in those games.

Not good.

Pete Carroll put together the bulk of his current staff in 2018. It was the start of the re-set with a number of high-profile players and coaches departing.

The Seahawks had completely lost their identity and in an attempt to regain control, Carroll appointed familiar faces and people who would run his system.

It was the right thing to do at the time. Seattle recaptured its identity, avoided a huge downturn in results despite the siphoning of talent and quickly got back on track.

Now that they’re three years in it might be time for a rejig. Arguably, they could do with some outsiders to come in and offer new ideas.

It’s not unfair to contemplate the possibility of big changes to the defensive staff at the end of the season. The poor results so far aren’t entirely the fault of the staff — many of Seattle’s issues on defense are down to personnel and team building decisions.

Nevertheless, it seems somewhat likely there will be some moves in the off-season.

It might not be a bad idea to find someone who is currently with the Patriots in some capacity or was part of the staff in 2018 and give them a job.

Belichick’s defense is different to Carroll’s. Sometimes though, you need to steal an idea or two. A new voice can be a good thing.

In 2017 Paul Allen asked Carroll and John Schneider to appoint an outsider in an advisory capacity. Allen wanted to find ways to challenge his GM and Head Coach, to present a new perspective.

Mike Pettine, now the defensive coordinator in Green Bay, was brought in. Pettine’s background is not in the 4-3 under but he spent a year as a consultant in Seattle.

Who knows how Carroll felt about that plan or whether he saw any worth in it? He hasn’t made a similar appointment since.

However — it’s hard not to observe the success New England and New York have had against the Rams being led by the same connected coaching tissue.

One of the main reasons the Seahawks have only won the NFC West once in the last five years is because of the way they play the Rams. Perhaps this year will be different? Regardless — if there are coaching changes in the summer, it might not be the worst idea in the world to identify someone with experience of the plan that has stymied the Rams twice to see if you can bring that same impact to Seattle.

The Seahawks are meeting with an old friend

Snacks Harrison isn’t the only player coming in for a visit this week. It’s been revealed that Mychal Kendricks is too.

This would be a smart addition for the Seahawks.

Kendricks was put in a difficult position in 2019. With the defense operating mostly in base, he was tasked with playing a lot of coverage and trying to offer some pass rush from the SAM position.

Pete Carroll regularly referred to his 4.47 forty at the 2012 combine to justify the move. While he’s certainly still a good athlete, the chances are he’s lost some speed since then.

Nickel cornerback is one of the toughest positions to play in the modern NFL. Having to take on some of those duties as a 240lbs linebacker is a thankless task. His play suffered, he missed 21.1% of his tackles and then he picked up a serious injury.

With the Seahawks moving away from base, he would be the ideal rotational linebacker.

As a pass rusher he graded well last year — receiving a 75.3 grade from PFF for his 84 pass rush snaps

With Bruce Irvin out for the season and Jordyn Brooks seemingly set to miss a chunk of time with a knee injury — the Seahawks’ depth at the position has taken a hit.

And sadly, Cody Barton continues to struggle.

It was bad enough last year when he was being blocked in the playoff by Aaron Rodgers and stiff-armed by Kyle Allen:

You could put it down to some rookie growing pains. Was he unsure of himself? Did he need to settle into the league?

He certainly needed to improve though. There were too many mistakes, too many missed opportunities.

Last Sunday in Miami was his first chance to start this season and it didn’t go well. Again — he was missing tackles, being juked in the open field and he just doesn’t seem to have the ability to read and react. He could make up for that by playing with an aggressive, physical nature but that’s also missing (see above).

His PFF grade against the Dolphins was a 48.1 with a horrible 40.1 tackling score.

Reportedly he’s carrying a quad injury. The Seahawks can’t afford to carry anyone this year though, especially with the defense in the state it’s in.

Kendricks might not suit playing as a hybrid SAM/Nickel in an ambitious (and possibly misguided) return to base defense. As a third linebacker complementing Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright, however, he’s certainly up to the job.

If Jordyn Brooks is going to be out for some time it makes sense to bring him in.

As for Barton — it’s hard to know where he goes from here. They wouldn’t be meeting with Kendricks if they weren’t concerned. Is he salvageable? They traded up in round three for him in 2019 but he’s just not showing enough.

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Reviewing the PFF grades

***Edit — information removed***

Now comes the real test

The Seahawks have enjoyed a winning start but the next run of games will be a serious test of their credentials.

By the end of tonight there’s a reasonable chance their four opponents will have combined for a 4-12 record so far. Dallas have looked abysmal and probably should be 0-4. The Falcons, who are wholly responsible for the Cowboys not being 0-4, are likely to lose against Green Bay and remain winless. The victory against Bill Belichick and Cam Newton was clearly a strong result but the Dolphins remain in rebuilding mode.

The next opponents, Minnesota, are probably better than their 1-3 record suggests. They showed in the playoffs last year when they won in New Orleans that they’re a match for anyone on their day.

It could potentially be Seattle’s toughest game so far and shouldn’t be taken for granted. The benefit of winning it, however, can’t be underestimated.

After the bye week the Seahawks face Arizona (A), San Francisco (H), Buffalo (A), LA Rams (A), Arizona (H) and Philadelphia (A). That’s a difficult stretch.

Starting 5-0 would afford Seattle the ability to drop a couple of those games and still potentially remain in a strong position to contend for the #1 seed. Especially considering the following three games would be against the Giants, Jets and Washington.

As I said on the podcast yesterday — the Seahawks are far from a flawless team but they are a winning team. We’re about to find out how good they truly are.

A reminder that pressure matters

Against Miami, the Seahawks found some answers on defense. The blitz-heavy style of the first three weeks didn’t suit their personnel and was conceding too many points, yards and explosive plays.

The conservative nature of sitting in coverage and a weak pass rush will be problematic some weeks against better opponents. However, there’s surely no doubt that forcing teams to ‘take what they’re given’ and hoping to tighten up in the red zone is better for this team than giving up 93-yard drives in 38 seconds.

This style will be even better if they can somehow find a trade partner before the deadline to acquire a dynamic EDGE. They just need somebody — anybody — who can win 1v1 battles to create the sacks they’re currently struggling to find.

If you’re wondering how important this can be, just look at the Niners vs Eagles game yesterday. A week ago Nick Mullens was being touted to replace Jimmy Garoppolo. Not anymore, not after his horror show on Sunday night.

The cause? He was pressured on 54.8% of his dropbacks — the most of any quarterback on Sunday. He was rattled and made mistakes. Garoppolo and Jared Goff are prone to this too.

The Seahawks have pulled off some smart trades before the deadline in the past — such as Quandre Diggs and Duane Brown. They need to rekindle that magic again in order to really elevate their post-season chances.

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This was the type of game the Seahawks needed.

In our game-preview podcast earlier in the week — I mentioned the need for a closer game that allowed the defense to hang in there and build some confidence.

Mission accomplished.

The manner of this game could benefit the Seahawks in a big way moving forward. They’ve found a way to play on defense.

It was conservative. It gave Miami an easy option on most downs. Some quarterbacks will be too good for this to work and could slice and dice downfield and then hit in the red zone.

However, the key is there was never a sniff of an explosive play downfield. When you constrict everything and tighten up in your half, you can hold teams.

Miami collected field goals today and that was fine.

When they had to press and chase the game, mistakes were made. They couldn’t go through the gears. They were taking what they were given and when they had to get more, they couldn’t.

It’s a style of play that not only suits the existing scheme and personnel — it can also complement a prolific offense.

Forget blitzing 36% of the time. Forget needing your cornerbacks to plan man in those situations. Forget needing the blitz to work (it wasn’t — 3.1% sack rate) or you run the risk of getting burned.

This is the style to play for this team.

All of the problems we’ve talked about still exist. This D-line still badly lacks anyone who can win 1v1 and get after the quarterback consistently. They still need to try and acquire that player before the trade deadline.

They also gave up a touchdown drive at the end that was far too easy — a common trait through four weeks.

Yet this works so much better. It was safe, sound and that’ll do.

It was needed too because the offense stuttered and stalled for large parts.

After three weeks of electric, record-setting prolificacy — there were some issues (with the exception being a terrific performance from David Moore).

Two drives ended prematurely thanks to drops by D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. The Seahawks failed to convert a 4th and 3 despite being in field goal range (an aggressive call, which is fine, but they lost points). Russell Wilson threw a red zone interception at the start of the second half.

It all adds up in the end. When Seattle took a 17-9 lead into the half, then marched into the red zone to start the third quarter, that should’ve been the moment to put Miami away.

Instead, it turned into one of those games — with the defense hanging on.

Thankfully they were up to the task — and clung on long enough for the offense to rekindle its mojo late in the fourth quarter.

Shaquill Griffin looked a lot better. Tre Flowers was much more comfortable. There were no glaring issues in the secondary and the linebackers appeared a lot more free to roam, read and make plays.

Hopefully this is the blueprint going forward. It won’t work every week. Teams will have tape now and will find ways to capitalise on a lack of aggression and pressure. In those games, the offense will simply have to be more like weeks 1-3 and less like week four.

Next they face the Vikings, who won their first game of the season today on the road in Houston.

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Check out this weeks podcast and share your thoughts in the comments section…