Tyree Wilson is a common pick for the Seahawks among the many mocks on the internet.
It makes some sense. Defensive line is a big need. Wilson has incredible size and length and we know the Seahawks put a lot of emphasis on length when it comes to defensive linemen.
However, it feels like every mock is making the same pick for Seattle and several refuse to seriously consider the possibility that the Seahawks will draft a quarterback.
You usually see a reference to Seattle retaining Geno Smith and therefore, the position will be addressed. Job done. Nothing to see here.
That to me is an error. Even if Smith signs a new deal, it’s still very plausible that the Seahawks will draft a quarterback too.
A few days ago we highlighted an article by Bob Condotta in the Seattle Times, discussing this possibility:
As noted, the Seahawks may not want too much of a long-term commitment (with Smith) and will want to assure they can structure the deal in a way to allow them to address their other issues.
And a two- or three-year deal — especially if there is a void year at the end — doesn’t mean the Seahawks can’t draft a QB in the first round. Seattle drafted Russell Wilson in the third round in 2012 after signing Matt Flynn to a three-year, $20.5 million deal.
In other words, the Seahawks can take care of the present while also looking to the future. And that may well be the way they go.
In many cases it almost feels like a moot point that Smith will stay in Seattle. Some articles don’t even reference quarterback as a need — despite the fact that currently there isn’t a contracted QB on the roster.
Yes — the language surrounding a Smith extension is positive. Both player and team are making the right noises publicly. Let’s not forget, though, that similar things were said about Frank Clark (“He’s not going anywhere, Frankie’s a Seahawk”) and Jadeveon Clowney (“it’s our priority to keep him”).
In both cases there was a real desire to retain both players, right up until the point the price became too high. Then the Seahawks moved on, without hesitation.
This is the same team that labelled the Russell Wilson trade talks ‘a media creation’ (they said what they needed to say). They also cut franchise-favourite Bobby Wagner the moment his salary became unaffordable. This was despite the continued public praise for Wagner during press conferences and the undoubted respect they had for him as a player and person.
So really, we can take any public comments with a pinch of salt. The reality is Geno Smith will have a price just like Clark, Clowney and Wagner. If the price is too high, they’ll move on.
For the last few years it’s been a difficult negotiation just to get Smith back as the backup. He has had a tendency to only sign deals weeks after the market opens.
Here are the dates when he re-signed year-to-year:
2019 — May 15th
2020 — May 20th
2021 — April 22nd
2022 — April 19th
Take last year for example — free agency officially began March 16th. It took over a month for him to agree terms with Seattle, provoking a slightly irked Carroll to make a public nudge to Smith about signing a contract, when the Seahawks were his only realistic shot to start.
Unless they make a terrific offer — or Smith senses his best offer is in Seattle and doesn’t want to squander it — this could be a tricky deal to negotiate and it could take some time.
A layer of intrigue has been added with Tampa Bay appointing Seattle’s QB coach Dave Canales as their new offensive coordinator. Canales hasn’t been a hot candidate for coordinator jobs in the past. He was touted for Seattle two years ago, before they hired Shane Waldron. As far as I’m aware, he has no serious experience in play-calling.
It’s very easy to imagine the Buccs going after Smith to lead their team. Unlike the Seahawks, they don’t have a top-five pick. Todd Bowles coached Geno in New York. They also need a veteran replacement for Tom Brady. Despite being in cap-hell, they have a veteran, expensive roster. They’ll either need to painfully blow everything up or go the same route as New Orleans by restructuring contracts.
In a winnable NFC South and having committed so many of their players to new deals, they feel like a prime candidate to try and stay competitive. Least of all because the Head Coach is on the hot-seat this season and the GM is unlikely going to be able to pitch a major rebuild and a terrible losing season, by getting rid of so many franchise-favourites in their prime years.
Now they’ve appointed Smith’s positional coach to lead their offense and will presumably be tapping into Seattle’s scheme and system, it’s a no-brainer they’ll make a run at Smith.
They are a slightly desperate franchise and might be more inclined to tempt him away from Seattle with a better financial package. It’ll be interesting to see if the Seahawks get into a bidding war.
As noted a few days ago — last summer they claimed they had ‘two number one quarterbacks’ in Smith and Drew Lock. It might be time to prove that wasn’t a fib and commit to Lock as your bridge.
There’s also this from ESPN’s Brady Henderson recently, discussing how the Seahawks might approach their negotiation with Smith:
The Seahawks, meanwhile, no doubt want to re-sign their Pro Bowl quarterback, but they have an offensive system they believe to be QB-friendly. They also believe there are potentially viable alternatives on more affordable contracts should Smith’s asking price get too high for their liking.
I think it’s clear nobody should be assuming Smith is definitely going to be back.
Back to the point on mock drafts — you can at least see why it should be more of a consideration that the Seahawks might draft a quarterback. The only prominent mock draft to do this recently is Mel Kiper’s. He gave Seattle Will Levis at #5.
This might’ve been Seattle’s intention all along.
The Geno Smith story has been interesting for a lot of reasons. Yet it’s highly unlikely the Seahawks dealt Russell Wilson without a clear plan for the future at QB. They didn’t do much of anything to address the position in 2022. They acquired Lock in the Denver deal. They re-signed Smith to a cheap one-year contract. They didn’t get involved in the Baker Mayfield trade stuff and they didn’t draft a quarterback, despite a number of options being available in the middle rounds.
Speak to anyone before the 2022 season began and the consensus belief was the Seahawks were biding their time and waiting on the 2023 quarterback class.
If they were in position to draft a QB — great. If not, they had sufficient stock to trade up and get one.
Are we really saying one season of Geno Smith was enough to completely change their plan, assuming they had one? That they’re now convinced the best thing to do is ignore the QB position in the draft, despite the rarity of being able to pick in the top-five? That Smith, who turns 33 this year, is good enough to build around for the long term? Even despite the fact his form took a turn for the worse towards the end of the season?
I think a more realistic scenario is the one Condotta mentioned in his article this week. Smith simply provides the Seahawks with a bonus option. If you re-sign him, there’s no pressure to start a rookie immediately. Yet you still plan to draft someone for the future, essentially getting the best of both worlds at the most important position in football.
You re-create the situation you had in 2012. You paid Matt Flynn, brought back Tarvaris Jackson then drafted Russell Wilson. You open up the competition and let the best man win.
It’s hardly far-fetched to believe they might do that again — with Smith, Lock and a rookie.
In this situation you’re not deviating away from any plan you might’ve had when you dealt Russell Wilson. You’re simply adapting the plan to include Geno Smith as a viable starter beyond 2022.
The idea would need Smith to be prepared to sign a contract matching Seattle’s budget. That would mean a low cap-hit in 2023 and an out for the team after this season. This is vital anyway because the Seahawks only have $19m in effective cap space and have a lot to get done to fill out their roster.
It could also mean major financial benefits to Smith if he excels under the new deal. This could come partly through incentives. The greatest incentive could be a bigger cap-hit in 2024 that he would earn through playing well in 2023. Thus, even if the Seahawks decide to move on, he could be dealt to a new team who would pay the handsome amount.
That would seem to be a realistic plan for both parties. Yet amid talk of Smith wanting $40m, revealed last week by Dave Wyman (who starts a weekly hit with John Schneider on his radio show today — just saying) — it could be that Smith wants jam today. That would open the door for a team like Tampa Bay to offer a bigger commitment, meaning the Seahawks would have a decision to make.
These things aren’t even considered with most mocks. This kind of conversation isn’t really being had at all. It’s mostly assumed Smith will be back and there’s not much discussion to the contrary. Someone might raise concern at a specific price-tag for Smith. Typically, it doesn’t go much further than that.
It’s not just Smith’s future that needs to be considered, though.
Tyree Wilson needs to prove he warrants a top-five placing. He has great length and size and we know the Seahawks really like those traits. However, his play is inconsistent and there is a degree of stiffness to his game. You can’t just draft a player in the top-five because he has an amazing frame. He needs to run a good 10-yard split, show he has explosive qualities in the vertical and broad jumps and it’d be nice to see strong agility testing through the short-shuttle and three-cone.
Do we even know if Wilson will test at the combine? He suffered a serious injury at the end of the season. He might not be healthy enough to test at 100%.
You can’t just draft a defensive lineman because you need one. Wilson has to show he warrants the pick.
We can take this a step further. I think there’s a very realistic chance Jalen Carter lasts to #5. Two days ago I highlighted the character concerns around Carter. Let’s just say there’s no smoke without fire. While it’s not the case that Carter is a bad person or anything like that — there are legitimate concerns in the league about his maturity, attitude, reliability and punctuality. Unquestionably he’s a very talented player. I would recommend people don’t dismiss what is being said by Todd McShay and Lance Zierlein, however.
This not only increases the chances of Carter lasting to #5 — it means the Seahawks would have a big call to make if one of the most talented defensive linemen to enter the league in recent years is available, yet they — like others — have serious concerns about whether he has the attitude and application to make the most of his god-given physical gifts.
The idea of simply taking a D-liner at #5 is not as straight forward as people think. If Will Anderson lasted, it might be an easier discussion to have. There are no character concerns there and he could be viewed as a rare safe, dynamic pick. With Carter and Wilson — I’d say there are a lot more question marks.
The other thing that makes me think Schneider always intended to draft a quarterback early this year is the players available. It’s a quarterback class that screams ‘Schneider’. As we keep mentioning — he loves traits. History suggests he’s willing to take a chance on physical talent — choosing to focus on what a player can become, not the flaws he has shown in college.
We all know Patrick Mahomes to be one of the greatest players to ever play the game. In his final year at Texas Tech he had a run of six straight games with an interception. He lost seven games in 2016. He had 25 interceptions in his final two seasons in college.
Schneider saw through all this and, reportedly, really liked Mahomes.
Josh Allen had 21 interceptions in his final two years in college. He had a completion percentage of just 56.3%. He had three games in 2017 with sub-100 passing yards and he started his final season with six picks in his first seven games.
Schneider saw through all this and, reportedly, really liked Allen.
Russell Wilson had 25 interceptions in his final two years at NC State. He never had a completion percentage above 60% with the Wolfpack. He had 11 games at Wisconsin where he threw 255 yards or fewer — including six sub-200 yard games. He also lost three games in his final season at Wisconsin. He lacked prototypical height.
Schneider saw through all this and drafted Wilson.
Do you see the trend here? We all think of these three players as quality NFL passers. In college, they had significant flaws.
You know, just like C.J. Stroud, Will Levis and Anthony Richardson — who all happen to have exactly the kind of physical traits Schneider has previously loved.
I also think there’s every chance he’ll also really like Bryce Young despite his lack of size — potentially meaning there are four quarterbacks he would take, while owning the #5 pick.
My prediction is there’s probably only one player right now — Will Anderson — who would push the Seahawks away from the four quarterbacks expected to go early in round one.
They might do more homework on Carter than any other player between now and April, to discover whether he joins Anderson in that bracket. If he’s too much of a character risk (a very real possibility, given how much emphasis they placed on character a year ago), I’m not convinced they simply pivot to Tyree Wilson unless he tests well. I think quarterback will very much be in the reckoning — even if they bring back Geno Smith and/or Drew Lock.
Just before the 2022 draft I spoke to someone ‘in the league’ who told me teams were smitten with Stroud and Young. The belief was this would impact decision making over the 2022 quarterbacks, who were mostly viewed as mid-round talents anyway.
That proved to be true — with only Kenny Pickett being selected before round three.
If Stroud and Young are the first two picks — or at least the first two quarterbacks off the board — that leaves two more spots before Seattle’s on the clock. Anderson will almost certainly be the first defender selected, due to his exceptional character/talent and the concerns surrounding Carter.
Then it comes down to who the fourth player is. It could be Levis. It could be Richardson. If the concerns are strong enough on Carter and Tyree Wilson tests well, he could even usurp the Georgia player.
I would urge anyone reading this, though, to be open-minded about the Seahawks potentially drafting Levis or Richardson (or Stroud or Young if they last — with Young more likely to last due to his size).
Levis is everything Schneider looks for in a quarterback. Great size, elite arm strength, fantastic athlete, obsessive about the game, loved by everyone at Kentucky. I can vouch for this because I’ve spoken to people about him and personally interviewed Levis myself:
Adding to that is his experience playing in Seattle’s offense in 2021 under Liam Coen and the likelihood he understands the terminology and concepts already. The year under Coen is likely to be the basis for most evaluations of Levis across the league, rather than the car-crash he had to experience in 2022 where his offensive line couldn’t block anything, he lost his top receiver, his running back served a suspension and he played most of the season with a broken toe.
Richardson also has the traits and tools dreams are made of. He might need time and seasoning — but if you re-sign Geno Smith he would get time and seasoning. It’s not unfair to say Richardson has superstar potential and while he’s far from perfect after just one season starting in college, he has the tools and potential to be one of the faces of the NFL. You can’t say that about many players.
The other thing to note is there’s enough depth defensively to improve that side of the ball with your other picks at #20, #38, #53 and #84.
Will McDonald looks like the definition of a Seahawks edge rusher. From the 35-inch arms to the expected 42/43-inch vertical and the dynamic ability to bend-and-straighten to the quarterback — it’s like he was made to play for Pete Carroll’s defense.
Frankly it won’t be a surprise if he’s rated as Seattle’s #2 EDGE prospect behind only Will Anderson. He could be available at #20 and I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a big ring around his name on Seattle’s draft board.
From Keion White to Adetomiwa Adebawore and Keeanu Benton — there are likely to be players in the top-40 with talent and impact potential available.
There are also attractive, underrated players such as Cameron Young and Alabama’s Byron Young who can bolster the defensive front.
Plus if they don’t re-sign Geno Smith, there will be more money to spend on defensive players in free agency.
So please — if you are writing a mock draft in the future, at least give greater consideration to putting a quarterback at #5. It’s more likely than you think.
If you enjoy the blog and appreciate what we do — why not consider supporting the site via Patreon — (click here)