Month: February 2023 (Page 2 of 3)

Tyree Wilson is a common pick for the Seahawks among the many mocks on the internet.

It makes some sense. Defensive line is a big need. Wilson has incredible size and length and we know the Seahawks put a lot of emphasis on length when it comes to defensive linemen.

However, it feels like every mock is making the same pick for Seattle and several refuse to seriously consider the possibility that the Seahawks will draft a quarterback.

You usually see a reference to Seattle retaining Geno Smith and therefore, the position will be addressed. Job done. Nothing to see here.

That to me is an error. Even if Smith signs a new deal, it’s still very plausible that the Seahawks will draft a quarterback too.

A few days ago we highlighted an article by Bob Condotta in the Seattle Times, discussing this possibility:

As noted, the Seahawks may not want too much of a long-term commitment (with Smith) and will want to assure they can structure the deal in a way to allow them to address their other issues.

And a two- or three-year deal — especially if there is a void year at the end — doesn’t mean the Seahawks can’t draft a QB in the first round. Seattle drafted Russell Wilson in the third round in 2012 after signing Matt Flynn to a three-year, $20.5 million deal.

In other words, the Seahawks can take care of the present while also looking to the future. And that may well be the way they go.

In many cases it almost feels like a moot point that Smith will stay in Seattle. Some articles don’t even reference quarterback as a need — despite the fact that currently there isn’t a contracted QB on the roster.

Yes — the language surrounding a Smith extension is positive. Both player and team are making the right noises publicly. Let’s not forget, though, that similar things were said about Frank Clark (“He’s not going anywhere, Frankie’s a Seahawk”) and Jadeveon Clowney (“it’s our priority to keep him”).

In both cases there was a real desire to retain both players, right up until the point the price became too high. Then the Seahawks moved on, without hesitation.

This is the same team that labelled the Russell Wilson trade talks ‘a media creation’ (they said what they needed to say). They also cut franchise-favourite Bobby Wagner the moment his salary became unaffordable. This was despite the continued public praise for Wagner during press conferences and the undoubted respect they had for him as a player and person.

So really, we can take any public comments with a pinch of salt. The reality is Geno Smith will have a price just like Clark, Clowney and Wagner. If the price is too high, they’ll move on.

For the last few years it’s been a difficult negotiation just to get Smith back as the backup. He has had a tendency to only sign deals weeks after the market opens.

Here are the dates when he re-signed year-to-year:

2019 — May 15th
2020 — May 20th
2021 — April 22nd
2022 — April 19th

Take last year for example — free agency officially began March 16th. It took over a month for him to agree terms with Seattle, provoking a slightly irked Carroll to make a public nudge to Smith about signing a contract, when the Seahawks were his only realistic shot to start.

Unless they make a terrific offer — or Smith senses his best offer is in Seattle and doesn’t want to squander it — this could be a tricky deal to negotiate and it could take some time.

A layer of intrigue has been added with Tampa Bay appointing Seattle’s QB coach Dave Canales as their new offensive coordinator. Canales hasn’t been a hot candidate for coordinator jobs in the past. He was touted for Seattle two years ago, before they hired Shane Waldron. As far as I’m aware, he has no serious experience in play-calling.

It’s very easy to imagine the Buccs going after Smith to lead their team. Unlike the Seahawks, they don’t have a top-five pick. Todd Bowles coached Geno in New York. They also need a veteran replacement for Tom Brady. Despite being in cap-hell, they have a veteran, expensive roster. They’ll either need to painfully blow everything up or go the same route as New Orleans by restructuring contracts.

In a winnable NFC South and having committed so many of their players to new deals, they feel like a prime candidate to try and stay competitive. Least of all because the Head Coach is on the hot-seat this season and the GM is unlikely going to be able to pitch a major rebuild and a terrible losing season, by getting rid of so many franchise-favourites in their prime years.

Now they’ve appointed Smith’s positional coach to lead their offense and will presumably be tapping into Seattle’s scheme and system, it’s a no-brainer they’ll make a run at Smith.

They are a slightly desperate franchise and might be more inclined to tempt him away from Seattle with a better financial package. It’ll be interesting to see if the Seahawks get into a bidding war.

As noted a few days ago — last summer they claimed they had ‘two number one quarterbacks’ in Smith and Drew Lock. It might be time to prove that wasn’t a fib and commit to Lock as your bridge.

There’s also this from ESPN’s Brady Henderson recently, discussing how the Seahawks might approach their negotiation with Smith:

The Seahawks, meanwhile, no doubt want to re-sign their Pro Bowl quarterback, but they have an offensive system they believe to be QB-friendly. They also believe there are potentially viable alternatives on more affordable contracts should Smith’s asking price get too high for their liking.

I think it’s clear nobody should be assuming Smith is definitely going to be back.

Back to the point on mock drafts — you can at least see why it should be more of a consideration that the Seahawks might draft a quarterback. The only prominent mock draft to do this recently is Mel Kiper’s. He gave Seattle Will Levis at #5.

This might’ve been Seattle’s intention all along.

The Geno Smith story has been interesting for a lot of reasons. Yet it’s highly unlikely the Seahawks dealt Russell Wilson without a clear plan for the future at QB. They didn’t do much of anything to address the position in 2022. They acquired Lock in the Denver deal. They re-signed Smith to a cheap one-year contract. They didn’t get involved in the Baker Mayfield trade stuff and they didn’t draft a quarterback, despite a number of options being available in the middle rounds.

Speak to anyone before the 2022 season began and the consensus belief was the Seahawks were biding their time and waiting on the 2023 quarterback class.

If they were in position to draft a QB — great. If not, they had sufficient stock to trade up and get one.

Are we really saying one season of Geno Smith was enough to completely change their plan, assuming they had one? That they’re now convinced the best thing to do is ignore the QB position in the draft, despite the rarity of being able to pick in the top-five? That Smith, who turns 33 this year, is good enough to build around for the long term? Even despite the fact his form took a turn for the worse towards the end of the season?

I think a more realistic scenario is the one Condotta mentioned in his article this week. Smith simply provides the Seahawks with a bonus option. If you re-sign him, there’s no pressure to start a rookie immediately. Yet you still plan to draft someone for the future, essentially getting the best of both worlds at the most important position in football.

You re-create the situation you had in 2012. You paid Matt Flynn, brought back Tarvaris Jackson then drafted Russell Wilson. You open up the competition and let the best man win.

It’s hardly far-fetched to believe they might do that again — with Smith, Lock and a rookie.

In this situation you’re not deviating away from any plan you might’ve had when you dealt Russell Wilson. You’re simply adapting the plan to include Geno Smith as a viable starter beyond 2022.

The idea would need Smith to be prepared to sign a contract matching Seattle’s budget. That would mean a low cap-hit in 2023 and an out for the team after this season. This is vital anyway because the Seahawks only have $19m in effective cap space and have a lot to get done to fill out their roster.

It could also mean major financial benefits to Smith if he excels under the new deal. This could come partly through incentives. The greatest incentive could be a bigger cap-hit in 2024 that he would earn through playing well in 2023. Thus, even if the Seahawks decide to move on, he could be dealt to a new team who would pay the handsome amount.

That would seem to be a realistic plan for both parties. Yet amid talk of Smith wanting $40m, revealed last week by Dave Wyman (who starts a weekly hit with John Schneider on his radio show today — just saying) — it could be that Smith wants jam today. That would open the door for a team like Tampa Bay to offer a bigger commitment, meaning the Seahawks would have a decision to make.

These things aren’t even considered with most mocks. This kind of conversation isn’t really being had at all. It’s mostly assumed Smith will be back and there’s not much discussion to the contrary. Someone might raise concern at a specific price-tag for Smith. Typically, it doesn’t go much further than that.

It’s not just Smith’s future that needs to be considered, though.

Tyree Wilson needs to prove he warrants a top-five placing. He has great length and size and we know the Seahawks really like those traits. However, his play is inconsistent and there is a degree of stiffness to his game. You can’t just draft a player in the top-five because he has an amazing frame. He needs to run a good 10-yard split, show he has explosive qualities in the vertical and broad jumps and it’d be nice to see strong agility testing through the short-shuttle and three-cone.

Do we even know if Wilson will test at the combine? He suffered a serious injury at the end of the season. He might not be healthy enough to test at 100%.

You can’t just draft a defensive lineman because you need one. Wilson has to show he warrants the pick.

We can take this a step further. I think there’s a very realistic chance Jalen Carter lasts to #5. Two days ago I highlighted the character concerns around Carter. Let’s just say there’s no smoke without fire. While it’s not the case that Carter is a bad person or anything like that — there are legitimate concerns in the league about his maturity, attitude, reliability and punctuality. Unquestionably he’s a very talented player. I would recommend people don’t dismiss what is being said by Todd McShay and Lance Zierlein, however.

This not only increases the chances of Carter lasting to #5 — it means the Seahawks would have a big call to make if one of the most talented defensive linemen to enter the league in recent years is available, yet they — like others — have serious concerns about whether he has the attitude and application to make the most of his god-given physical gifts.

The idea of simply taking a D-liner at #5 is not as straight forward as people think. If Will Anderson lasted, it might be an easier discussion to have. There are no character concerns there and he could be viewed as a rare safe, dynamic pick. With Carter and Wilson — I’d say there are a lot more question marks.

The other thing that makes me think Schneider always intended to draft a quarterback early this year is the players available. It’s a quarterback class that screams ‘Schneider’. As we keep mentioning — he loves traits. History suggests he’s willing to take a chance on physical talent — choosing to focus on what a player can become, not the flaws he has shown in college.

We all know Patrick Mahomes to be one of the greatest players to ever play the game. In his final year at Texas Tech he had a run of six straight games with an interception. He lost seven games in 2016. He had 25 interceptions in his final two seasons in college.

Schneider saw through all this and, reportedly, really liked Mahomes.

Josh Allen had 21 interceptions in his final two years in college. He had a completion percentage of just 56.3%. He had three games in 2017 with sub-100 passing yards and he started his final season with six picks in his first seven games.

Schneider saw through all this and, reportedly, really liked Allen.

Russell Wilson had 25 interceptions in his final two years at NC State. He never had a completion percentage above 60% with the Wolfpack. He had 11 games at Wisconsin where he threw 255 yards or fewer — including six sub-200 yard games. He also lost three games in his final season at Wisconsin. He lacked prototypical height.

Schneider saw through all this and drafted Wilson.

Do you see the trend here? We all think of these three players as quality NFL passers. In college, they had significant flaws.

You know, just like C.J. Stroud, Will Levis and Anthony Richardson — who all happen to have exactly the kind of physical traits Schneider has previously loved.

I also think there’s every chance he’ll also really like Bryce Young despite his lack of size — potentially meaning there are four quarterbacks he would take, while owning the #5 pick.

My prediction is there’s probably only one player right now — Will Anderson — who would push the Seahawks away from the four quarterbacks expected to go early in round one.

They might do more homework on Carter than any other player between now and April, to discover whether he joins Anderson in that bracket. If he’s too much of a character risk (a very real possibility, given how much emphasis they placed on character a year ago), I’m not convinced they simply pivot to Tyree Wilson unless he tests well. I think quarterback will very much be in the reckoning — even if they bring back Geno Smith and/or Drew Lock.

Just before the 2022 draft I spoke to someone ‘in the league’ who told me teams were smitten with Stroud and Young. The belief was this would impact decision making over the 2022 quarterbacks, who were mostly viewed as mid-round talents anyway.

That proved to be true — with only Kenny Pickett being selected before round three.

If Stroud and Young are the first two picks — or at least the first two quarterbacks off the board — that leaves two more spots before Seattle’s on the clock. Anderson will almost certainly be the first defender selected, due to his exceptional character/talent and the concerns surrounding Carter.

Then it comes down to who the fourth player is. It could be Levis. It could be Richardson. If the concerns are strong enough on Carter and Tyree Wilson tests well, he could even usurp the Georgia player.

I would urge anyone reading this, though, to be open-minded about the Seahawks potentially drafting Levis or Richardson (or Stroud or Young if they last — with Young more likely to last due to his size).

Levis is everything Schneider looks for in a quarterback. Great size, elite arm strength, fantastic athlete, obsessive about the game, loved by everyone at Kentucky. I can vouch for this because I’ve spoken to people about him and personally interviewed Levis myself:

Adding to that is his experience playing in Seattle’s offense in 2021 under Liam Coen and the likelihood he understands the terminology and concepts already. The year under Coen is likely to be the basis for most evaluations of Levis across the league, rather than the car-crash he had to experience in 2022 where his offensive line couldn’t block anything, he lost his top receiver, his running back served a suspension and he played most of the season with a broken toe.

Richardson also has the traits and tools dreams are made of. He might need time and seasoning — but if you re-sign Geno Smith he would get time and seasoning. It’s not unfair to say Richardson has superstar potential and while he’s far from perfect after just one season starting in college, he has the tools and potential to be one of the faces of the NFL. You can’t say that about many players.

The other thing to note is there’s enough depth defensively to improve that side of the ball with your other picks at #20, #38, #53 and #84.

Will McDonald looks like the definition of a Seahawks edge rusher. From the 35-inch arms to the expected 42/43-inch vertical and the dynamic ability to bend-and-straighten to the quarterback — it’s like he was made to play for Pete Carroll’s defense.

Frankly it won’t be a surprise if he’s rated as Seattle’s #2 EDGE prospect behind only Will Anderson. He could be available at #20 and I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a big ring around his name on Seattle’s draft board.

From Keion White to Adetomiwa Adebawore and Keeanu Benton — there are likely to be players in the top-40 with talent and impact potential available.

There are also attractive, underrated players such as Cameron Young and Alabama’s Byron Young who can bolster the defensive front.

Plus if they don’t re-sign Geno Smith, there will be more money to spend on defensive players in free agency.

So please — if you are writing a mock draft in the future, at least give greater consideration to putting a quarterback at #5. It’s more likely than you think.

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Since the end of the season almost all the talk has been about Geno Smith’s future and what the Seahawks should do with the #5 pick.

It’s time to talk about free agency.

The Seahawks have been frugal spenders in the Schneider/Carroll era. They tried to accelerate their initial build in 2011 by signing Sidney Rice, Zach Miller and Robert Gallery. They’ve dabbled with big free agency moves since then (T.J. Lang for example) but haven’t made a splash. They’ve not been afraid to make big trades, though.

It says a lot that Uchenna Nwosu’s two-year, $19m contract is the most expensive per-year that they’ve given an outside free agent.

Is it time to return to 2011 and make some big moves?

You’ll hear people insist the Seahawks ‘won’t’ spend in free agency ‘because it’s not what they do’ without actually considering whether it is something they should do.

The evidence shows the best teams in the league make good moves in the market.

Cincinnati completely revamped their defense with the key additions of Trey Hendrickson and D.J. Reader in 2021, helping pave the way for a Super Bowl run.

The Eagles intelligently added Haason Reddick ahead of the 2022 season, before making further moves for Kyzir White and James Bradberry. Trades for A.J. Brown and Darius Slay also injected quality into the team.

The Chiefs made a splash for their offensive line, signing Joe Thuney to a massive contract in 2021. They also signed Justin Reid and aggressively traded for Frank Clark and Orlando Brown.

The 49ers made smart moves acquiring Trent Williams and Charvarius Ward — and their trade for Christian McCaffrey now looks inspired.

The Seahawks almost certainly aren’t going to be able to just draft their way to glory. Seattle’s Super Bowl winning team, after all, relied a lot on free agent signings Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril — while Rice and Miller were also part of that team and there were also big contributions from veterans that were acquired (Marshawn Lynch, Chris Clemons and, in the Super Bowl at least, Percy Harvin).

I appreciate there isn’t much money to spend ($19m in effective cap space) and a lot of what is available is going to be spent on keeping certain players — most notably Geno Smith and/or Drew Lock and Ryan Neal. They’ll get $6.5m more when they cut Gabe Jackson. I would also cut Quinton Jefferson (saving $4.5m) and Bryan Mone (saving $2.6m).

I would call time on Jamal Adams’ career in Seattle — making him a post-June 1st cut and saving $11m for 2023. Time for a fresh start for team and player. They shouldn’t be committing $36m in 2023 to Quandre Diggs and Adams.

I’d also lean into the $98m in effective cap space Seattle currently has stashed for 2024. Any deal with Geno Smith is likely to be backloaded with a small 2023 cap hit. I’d like to do the same to add some key free agents. This team needs an injection of talent. The Seahawks need to go and get their answer to Thuney, Reddick, Hendrickson or D.J. Reader.

The veteran market is bloated and it’s the place where good players get great salaries and average players get good salaries. That’s why you’ve got to box clever and make bold, direct moves for a small pool of players. You’ve got to be prepared to spend a little bit more than you’re comfortable with to get quality.

Over the years the Seahawks have gone for depth over quality. They’ll sign a lot of players on modest contracts. It hasn’t worked. It’s how you end up with Benson Mayowa as your DE1, an anaemic pass rush and an offensive line that up until 2022 was pretty awful.

This isn’t a free agent class with tons of great options but some exist.

These are the names I would target…

Lavonte David (LB, Tampa Bay)

A lot of people are going to look at his age (he turned 33 in January) and dismiss this. Don’t. David remains one of the absolute top linebackers in the NFL and would be a huge get for anyone who can lure him away from the Buccaneers.

At the moment Tampa Bay has the worst cap situation in the league. They are $58m over the cap. They will receive $24m in relief with Tom Brady retiring. Otherwise, they’re going to need to go down the same route as New Orleans and restructure a bunch of contracts. They are a veteran group without the scope to blow things up and rebuild.

One of the things they’ll need to do is sign a quarterback. This is the one other destination where you can imagine Geno Smith making sense. Head Coach Todd Bowles worked with Smith in New York and this week, they interviewed Dave Canales for their offensive coordinator job. Thomas Brown from the Rams is also another strong candidate and he comes from the same scheme in LA.

What I’m getting at is something has to give. A saving will need to be made somewhere. Despite David claiming he wants to finish his career in Tampa Bay (as you’d expect) it might not be financially viable.

The Seahawks should be primed and ready with a two-year deal that is good enough to persuade David to come to Seattle instead.

There isn’t a more violent, aggressive and dynamic linebacker in the league. Even at this stage in his career, David is flying to the ball like he’s in his 20’s. He’s constantly in attack mode and he continues to help set a tone on defense. His PFF grade of 85.1 ranked third among linebackers in 2022. If you’re wondering about his legs — his coverage grade of 88.0 ranked second only to Tremaine Edmunds (90.0).

He could lead the second level of the defense if Jordyn Brooks misses time as he recovers from an ACL. Otherwise, pairing Brooks with David would give the Seahawks a good-looking duo at a position that requires an injection of talent.

A contract worth $22m over two years could get it done. I’d be willing to go higher if needed. Whether David would have interest moving to the other end of the country remains to be seen. You just know what you’re getting with him.

Sell him a dream. Let’s see those recruiting skills put to work, Pete. This isn’t a great draft at linebacker so getting proven quality in free agency would be a huge get. There isn’t anyone like David out there, who can provide quality and leadership.

Trade for DaRon Payne (DT, Washington)

Seattle’s biggest weakness is up front in the trenches on defense. Rather than hope a rookie can come in and solve this problem — it’s time to be aggressive.

I can’t imagine any situation where the Commanders let Payne just walk off into free agency. Even if they only get a third round pick in return, it makes sense to franchise tag him and seek a trade. People talk about a future compensatory pick but you only get those if you don’t make a comparable move yourself in free agency. Making a trade for Payne, rather than gambling on getting a comp pick, makes 100% sense.

With 11.5 sacks in 2022 and an 11.8% pass-rush win-rate since 2021 — Payne would provide the impact Seattle needs. He can create much-needed disruption. If you do a deal for him early in the off-season, you’ve addressed one of the biggest areas of need before you’ve even got to the draft. Then, if you wanted to add Jalen Carter or another defensive tackle, you add to what you’ve already got. You’re not just relying on rookies.

It won’t be cheap to sign Payne but who cares? If he costs $20m-a-year, that’s only $2m more than you’re paying Jamal Adams and Quandre Diggs in 2023. Signing people like Quinton Jefferson for $5m isn’t getting it done. Adding someone with the proven ability to get sacks from the interior would be a huge help for the defense.

I’d seriously consider giving up a day-two pick for Payne if/when he’s tagged. He doesn’t turn 26 until the Summer. He’d probably cost as much as Javon Hargrave who’s just turned 30. If the Commanders want a first rounder, that’s a bit too rich for me. If they’re realistic about what they’re going to get in return — adding Payne would be a big plus.

Going into next season with Payne, Al Woods and Shelby Harris plus an impressive rookie rotating in would give you the platform for a better year in the trenches.

Garrett Bradbury (C, Minnesota)

Sometimes you just need a change of scenery. Look at Ethan Pocic. He received the third highest grade for a center in 2022 (79.0) according to PFF.

Bradbury hasn’t been a disaster for the Vikings, he just hasn’t justified the #18 pick in the 2019 draft. He’s been alright. Frankly, I’d settle for ‘alright’ at center in Seattle. His 67.5 grade in 2022 was good enough for 11th at his position. In comparison, Austin Blythe received a 51.9 grade.

I don’t think this is a center draft that will provide obvious solutions for the Seahawks. John Michael Schmitz is becoming a bit overrated. I have him graded in round three pre-combine and will explain why in more detail when I publish an updated horizontal board tomorrow. I don’t think it’s an exciting centre class. The one player I would say was worthy of a top-40 pick — Georgia’s Sedrick Van Pran — opted not to turn pro.

I would happily take a chance on Bradbury who has the ideal physical profile for Seattle’s scheme. He’s a squatty 6-3 and 306lbs with great athleticism. He ran a 4.92 at his combine and added a 4.53 short shuttle. His body control and low center of gravity work well in leverage battles.

He’s familiar with Seattle’s scheme having worked for Kevin O’Connell in 2022. The terminology, therefore, will be similar. Bradbury had the best pass-pro grade of his career playing for O’Connell.

He turns 28 in June so he’s at a good age. PFF suggests he could earn a three-year deal worth $6m a season. I would pay that to see if he can upgrade from Blythe and produce a base-line consistency that is ‘decent’ at the position. They paid Blythe $4m in 2022 so it’s not a massive difference. If Bradbury produces his 2022 form for the next three years, it’ll be a good investment.

With these three additions, you would have the flexibility to take a quarterback at #5 if you wanted to (and I believe this is a much stronger possibility than most people in the media think). You could also keep adding to the defense. You wouldn’t need to spend a pick on a center and could focus on adding a right guard (there will be viable options in the middle rounds). More than anything, I’d argue you could focus on BPA with a lot of your picks. That’s one of the reasons why the 2022 class was such a roaring success.

I think the Bradbury signing is very realistic. I am less confident about David — who might simply take any old deal to stay with the only team he knows. It’s hard to be confident about adding Payne. Every fanbase in the country seems to want him. Micah Parsons is actively pushing for him to sign for Dallas. If he’s tagged, you’d have to be the team that outbids the others. It’s complicated.

There’s not much point writing an article, though, where you talk about free agency and don’t aim high. The goal should be to claim impact players. Your Reddick or Hargrave. Your Hendrickson or Reader. Your Thuney.

Trying to nickel and dime free agency hasn’t worked for the Seahawks over the last few years. There are always risks dabbling in the market but at what point do you just have to try something different? Especially when your defense was exposed as badly as it was in 2022.

These three signings alone won’t send you to the top. It’s about combining good drafting with good veteran additions. Both will be required.

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“The Jets, after acquiring the 26th pick, go pass-rush, taking Florida State’s Jermaine Johnson II, but it’s not one of the two pass-rushers the Seahawks have in mind.”

This is an exert from a brilliant article by John Boyle on Seahawks.com, shortly after the 2022 draft. The piece took us into the Seahawks draft room, revealing some of the players they were potentially targeting — and some they were not.

Many people, myself included, expected Jermaine Johnson to be a top-10 lock. He had a great season for Florida State. He dominated at the Senior Bowl. His combine performance was strong and he carried himself like an alpha on the field during drills.

A few people had him lasting into the teens — but there was nothing as dramatic as a fall to the end of round one. I thought he’d be a great option for the Seahawks but it turns out they had no interest. Character concerns were not discussed pre-draft but in light of his drop to #26 — they were then revealed.

It’s times like these that you realise for all the mocks and the prognosticating — we don’t get the information we need to complete a full picture on these players.

Scouts are around the college programs all the time. They know who works hard in the weight room, who is a leader, who lacks maturity. Teams get to interview players at the combine, often with psychological experts present. You can invite players to your facility for an official visit. No stone is left unturned.

For example, recently John Schneider was interviewed on 710 Seattle Sports and he made reference to watching interviews on YouTube to learn about individuals. Jim Nagy has talked about social media accounts, as has Lance Zierlein. In a live seminar discussing the way he scouts, Zierlein made reference to pouring over a player’s Instagram page to try and learn about the person.

We can also do some of this to try and get an angle on things — but we can never go as far as the teams.

That’s why we have to rely on nuggets that emerge in the media.

Todd McShay stated the following during an ESPN broadcast, discussing his first published mock draft:

“With Carter there are some character issues. Does he get along with everybody? What’s he like to deal with in the locker room? I know it’s early in the process but I’m forewarning everyone out there. Carter’s going to be a hot-button name when we talk about some of the intangible aspects of it. It’s not about his talent, it’s not about his size, it’s not about his explosive take-off or finishing as a pass rusher. It’s about the character. Do we want to bring that guy into the building?”

McShay received a lot of pushback for this online. You can certainly argue whether it’s right for a draft analyst to publicly question Carter’s character. It’s one thing for teams to have those concerns privately. It’s another thing to, as some might suggest, throw him under the bus.

ESPN published an article praising Carter’s off-the-field contributions days later, probably in an attempt to diffuse an awkward situation and not be seen to be crushing a young player internationally without balance.

However, I personally don’t see what the issue is. McShay is clearly only reporting what is being discussed behind the scenes. There was a lot of nonsense thrown at McShay — suggesting he was doing the bidding of teams hoping to initiate a draft-fall for Carter. It’s a ludicrous proposition. As if any team would pass on a prospect based on a back-and-forth between McShay and Mel Kiper on ESPN.

Lance Zierlein has since written the following in his scouting report for Carter:

Across the board, Carter checks out in a big way. However, his maturity will need to be vetted by each team as they make their evaluations.

Scouts say maturity has been an issue for him at times.

There’s also the well-publicised issue with conditioning, as highlighted in this video:

The bottom line is — his coach told him he had to improve his conditioning. Carter said himself his priority was to improve his conditioning when speaking last April. Then in the biggest games of the season — against LSU in the SEC Championship and against Ohio State in the playoffs, he looked as gassed as any player I’ve ever watched on a football field.

The off-setting point is that Zierlein also grades Carter as the best player in the draft. I suspect McShay has the same view. Personally I think Bijan Robinson is the most talented player — but Carter would be second.

Teams will need to weigh-up the pro’s and con’s and make a call. It means, for me, that Carter’s stock is more in-flux than people think. He could go in the top-three. He could last a bit longer than people think.

The Seahawks placed a big emphasis on character in the draft a year ago and Schneider re-iterated that on 710 Seattle Sports recently. It’s something to remember as many assume Seattle would automatically draft Carter and call it a job well done.

Charles Cross, Boye Mafe, Ken Walker, Abe Lucas. Their four high picks a year ago. All very motivated, very grounded people with the right attitude.

By all accounts, that doesn’t sound like Carter. McShay and Zierlein are not shock-jocks trying to make a headline. Most people don’t even know Zierlein’s scouting reports are available yet. He hasn’t made any fuss of what he’s said, which aligns with McShay’s comments. What we do know is both are highly respected with sources in the league at the highest level.

People like this actively questioning Carter’s maturity and locker room fit need to be listened to.

I find it strange how fans perceive drafting a quarterback to be ‘risky’ at #5 — but very rarely talk about the risk of taking Carter. If it’s simply a positional thing — why is it a ‘risk’ to try and find yourself a quality, cheap player at the most important position in football? I’d say that’s the opposite of ‘risk’. It’s opportunity.

The one thing you can say about C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young, Will Levis and Anthony Richardson is there are no character concerns. None. Especially with Stroud, Young and Levis who are all heart-and-soul leaders, highly respected by their programs.

I found it interesting listening to an interview with Jim Nagy talking about the Seahawks. He spoke about the home-run nature of drafting Will Anderson if he somehow lasted to #5. Nagy spoke of Anderson’s character, passion for the game, intensity on the field.

I get the feeling that if Anderson was on the board, the Seahawks would be all over it. The talent plus character equation adds up. Nick Saban has often gone above and beyond to talk-up Anderson as a person and team-mate.

With Carter it’s always a case of he’s talented ‘but’ there are some concerns.

I’ve mocked him to Seattle because I think there’s a chance they’ll view the talent and need meshing together. If the top three quarterbacks are off the board by #5, plus Anderson, then I think there’s a chance the Seahawks will roll the dice on Carter. After all, they badly need someone like him to create havoc up front.

Again though — character matters.

For the first time yesterday I saw a mock that had Tyree Wilson ahead of Carter. If Wilson tests well at the combine to go with his unique length and size — I wouldn’t be surprised if that became a common projection.

It all works to make things interesting at #5.

I wanted to highlight this article by Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times, with a particularly interesting note on Geno Smith’s future and Seattle’s possible quarterback plan:

As noted, the Seahawks may not want too much of a long-term commitment and will want to assure they can structure the deal in a way to allow them to address their other issues.

And a two- or three-year deal — especially if there is a void year at the end — doesn’t mean the Seahawks can’t draft a QB in the first round. Seattle drafted Russell Wilson in the third round in 2012 after signing Matt Flynn to a three-year, $20.5 million deal.

In other words, the Seahawks can take care of the present while also looking to the future. And that may well be the way they go.

This speaks to what we’ve been discussing recently and comes from a connected and trusted source. Amid all the ‘pay the man’ talk on Twitter and in some sections of the media, in the last week we’ve seen this article from Condotta and Dave Wyman suggesting on his radio show (the same radio show John Schneider begins a weekly guest-spot on Thursday) that Geno Smith is looking for $40m a year.

The Seahawks have dabbled quite frequently in media negotiations in the past. It seems things are underway once more.

My guess is what’s written above is, precisely, Seattle’s thinking. They want to re-sign Smith but they also want the benefit of a low cap hit in 2023. They don’t want a big commitment for years. They will strongly consider drafting a quarterback in round one to be the future — with Smith being the bridge.

That has always felt like the best plan moving forward. As I keep saying — despite a lot of people criticising the quarterback class (especially Will Levis and Anthony Richardson) — there is a good quartet at the top. More importantly, three of them (C.J. Stroud, Levis, Richardson) have the tools that Schneider has typically sought — from Charlie Whitehurst to Russell Wilson and then Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes.

Schneider seems to worry less about flaws and more about potential and physical quality. Tilt-the-field talent.

I do think he’ll see a lot to like with Richardson. I think he’ll see even more that he likes in Levis — and I imagine he’ll be amazed, like we all were, with the world class showing Stroud put on against Georgia.

That should, in my opinion, secure Stroud a place in the top-two picks. If Levis gets out of the top-four — which is debatable — he could easily be Seattle’s man.

He literally played in the Seahawks/Rams offense in 2021 and shone. He will have an easier transition into the league as a consequence. Levis is adored by everyone at Kentucky — the staff, the players, the people working behind the scenes. Everyone thinks he’s great. He is a gym-rat who loves the game.

He has the exact kind of arm Schneider loves and he’s shown he can execute Seattle’s scheme at a high level. People spend too much time on a disastrous 2022 season where he lost his offensive coordinator, centre and right tackle to the NFL — plus his top receiver. He was left with a mess of a situation, he was sacked an incredible number of times and had to play most of the season with a broken toe.

Levis screams Schneider and Seahawks. It’s something to keep in mind as we go through the next few weeks — even if (when?) Smith is re-signed.

If they do take a quarterback at five, there will still be options to improve the defense. The more I watch of Will McDonald, the more I think he is everything Pete Carroll looks for in a pass rusher. It won’t be a surprise if he’s viewed as a ‘must-have’ at #20 — given his remarkable physical profile, amazing length, college production and outstanding Senior Bowl.

With two second round picks and a third round pick — they will have plenty of stock to also bring in a defensive tackle. Could McDonald and Keeanu Benton be a rookie equivalent to Troy Hendrickson and D.J. Reader in Cincinnati? Possibly.

I still think there’s a chance they will acquire a big name D-liner when the league year begins — possibly by trading for DaRon Payne (assuming he’s tagged) or DeForest Buckner, or by signing a veteran such as Javon Hargrave. We’ll see — but I think the Seahawks know they need to do something up front.

The Eagles should be Seattle’s guiding light. They have drafted well but they’ve also acquired well. They don’t make the Super Bowl without their free agent additions up front. They made trades for A.J. Brown, Darius Slay and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson.

The Seahawks will need to be open-minded about how they acquire players and that’s another reason for not investing mega-money in Geno Smith.

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Now that the season is over, I wanted to make some draft/Seahawks predictions…

Three quarterbacks to go in the top-four

The Colts and Panthers are not going to stand still. Chris Ballard and Scott Fitterer have spoken publicly about trading up. The Colts appear set to hire Shane Steichen, while the Panthers have already appointed Frank Reich — two offensive minded Head Coaches. Both teams have spent years searching for quarterback solutions and now need a firm, long-term investment.

It seems inevitable that both teams will trade up. Jeff Howe recently reported in the Athletic that the league consensus is there’s a very clear ‘top-three’ at quarterback. Trade into the top three any time over the next month and you’re guaranteed at least one of C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young or Will Levis.

A bidding war is likely to take place for the top pick. The Bears will almost certainly prefer to stay in the top-four and do a deal with Indianapolis in the AFC. Will the Panthers be aggressive enough to tempt Chicago to fall to #9? It’s possible.

Arizona is interviewing Jonathan Gannon for their Head Coaching vacancy. It’ll be interesting to see whether the Cardinals are open to trading down to #9 if the Panthers can’t strike a deal with the Bears.

The wildcard team will be the Houston Texans. They have appointed DeMeco Ryans, who enjoyed success in San Francisco due to a great defensive line. He’s also appointed an offensive coordinator from the 49ers — passing game coordinator Bobby Slowik.

Do they feel like the scheme can elevate a quarterback much in the way it elevated Jimmy Garoppolo and Brock Purdy? Can their scheme get the most out of Davis Mills? Would they sign Garoppolo? Could they take Will Anderson or Jalen Carter at #2?

I don’t think it’s beyond the realms of possibility but with an extra first (#12 overall) and third round pick this year, plus Cleveland’s first rounder next year, they have ample stock to build a defense without taking a defensive lineman at #2.

What does this mean for Seattle?

The good news is — if the Seahawks align with the league consensus that there are three top quarterbacks, as well as two excellent defensive prospects, at least one of those players is going to be available at #5.

I think John Schneider will be very open to the idea of taking a quarterback at #5. He has a history of being attracted to arm talent. He spent a lot to acquire Charlie Whitehurst. He loved Russell Wilson. Supposedly he had his eye on Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. It appears he’s willing to put flaws into perspective if the physical upside is legit.

The 2023 quarterback class has three big-armed, huge-upside players in C.J. Stroud, Will Levis and Anthony Richardson. Bryce Young doesn’t have a cannon but he’s very creative and talented.

As such, I do think Schneider will be attracted to this quartet. I also don’t think Geno Smith’s future will have any relevance on their decision at #5.

In 2017 the Bears signed Mike Glennon to a $45m, three-year contract. It was a big investment at the time. They declared him as the man to lead the team and appeared destined to go in a different direction in the draft, with the #3 pick. Then they traded up on draft day to #2 to guarantee they could select Mitch Trubisky (famously snubbing Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson).

Part deception, part-bridging to the future — Chicago executed a plan the Seahawks might try.

If/when the Seahawks re-sign Smith, the media (local and national) will immediately proclaim this as ‘job done’ at quarterback and will shut-off any conversation about drafting a quarterback. This will be a mistake. The Seahawks are building and if Schneider sees a quarterback he really likes — and if that player is available — he likely takes him.

Keeping Smith simply protects the Seahawks against missing out in the draft and taking a backwards step. You can’t go into the draft with no serious quarterback on the roster, hoping by chance someone you like lasts to #5. That would be a mistake and it’s one they’ll avoid.

Let’s assume they sign Smith to a contract that looks big when it’s announced but actually carries a lot of incentives and has a smaller cap-hit and an easy out for the team within a year. That wouldn’t, in any way, shape or form, prevent the Seahawks drafting a quarterback if Schneider sees the next top player he likes.

Don’t forget the Seahawks signed Matt Flynn to a reasonable contract and then let a rookie beat him out of a job in 2012 — essentially making the investment in Flynn redundant. That emphatically worked for Seattle so I don’t see any reason why signing Smith to a new deal would mean the Seahawks are definitely not drafting a quarterback at #5.

Signing Smith keeps all options open for the draft. They can select a QB and use Smith as a bridge. Or they can draft a top defensive lineman.

I would prefer to just go cheap with a bridge quarterback and avoid any future dead money or a big financial commitment. A year ago they said they had ‘two number ones’ at the position in Smith and Drew Lock. Maybe it’s time to prove that wasn’t a big fib? Sign Lock to a contract similar to Smith’s in 2022 and let him be the bridge. Use the cap saving to bolster other areas of the roster. Draft your future at the most important position.

However, I can also see an argument where three quarterbacks are gone by #5 and the Seahawks love a defensive lineman and decide to wait on a position where they have, to be fair, found solutions over the years.

Who could be a solution?

I’ve written about trying to emulate the Eagles and I think it’s a very fair point to make. They won four games in 2020 and nine games in 2021. They just contested a very close Super Bowl. They have shown the blueprint to go from making up the numbers in the playoffs to legit force.

It requires having talent across the roster — which they were able to achieve by avoiding paying a big quarterback contract.

The Seahawks are unlikely to be able to add enough talent in one off-season to be a Super Bowl team in 2023 but they can position themselves to be a more realistic threat in 2024.

Personally I think Stroud, Young, Levis and Richardson can at least do what Jalen Hurts has done for the Eagles. I suppose the question is whether the Seahawks think someone like Hendon Hooker can also do it?

Think of it like this. Let’s say the top three QB’s are off the board by #5. You can then draft one of Anderson or Carter at #5 or the fourth quarterback. I think either decision is justifiable — but if you think Hooker can essentially do what Hurts has done, could it push you towards drafting a top defensive lineman at #5 then waiting for Hooker later?

As I wrote last week, you can build a case around it. The Seahawks do appear likely to keep Geno Smith so drafting Hooker would give them a possible alternative from next year to be cheaper at QB. He’d have to red-shirt as he recovers from injury, meaning there’d be no camp drama. That won’t be the case if they sign Smith and then draft a QB at #5 — although as mentioned earlier — as we saw with Matt Flynn, the Seahawks are comfortable letting a rookie compete (and usurp) a more expensive veteran.

Hurts was the #53 overall pick in 2020. The Seahawks own the #53 pick this year. There’s some symmetry there, if they take Hooker in the late second.

It would give Smith the chance to prove he’s more than a one-season wonder, while also offering the Seahawks a younger, cheaper alternative for the future.

Hooker has a lot of appealing traits — including big hands (10 1/2 inches) and good athleticism. He executed the Josh Heupel scheme well and the Seahawks might think he can come in and do the basics well within their own system to produce results. He’s a high-character, competitive individual.

There are also some other things to consider. Hooker is already older than Hurts at 25 and he’s having to recover from a serious knee injury. I think the Tennessee offense made his life very easy and I’ve never seen so many wide-open throws.

Nevertheless — you get the point I’m making here. It comes down to the big picture of putting together an off-season.

It stands to reason the Seahawks might think it’s better to do this:

Re-sign Geno Smith
Draft a top defensive lineman at #5
Draft Hendon Hooker at #53

Rather than do this:

Not re-sign Geno Smith
Have more money for free agency
Draft a quarterback at #5
Hope to draft impact defenders later

I am not the biggest fan of Hooker’s and wouldn’t draft him as early as round two — although I embrace some of the positives in his game and respect what he achieved at Tennessee. Even so, I wouldn’t criticise the Seahawks for the plan above that has them going D-line first then Hooker. It might not be what I’d do — as a plan, though, it’s reasonable.

Hurts was not considered a big-time prospect when he came into the league and many questioned Philadelphia’s use of an important second round pick on him. He was very nearly a Super Bowl Champion and Super Bowl MVP.

Copying the Eagles could very well mean taking Hooker with the exact same pick Philly used on Hurts — believing if they can put the right supporting cast around Hooker, they can build in the way the Eagles have done.

John Schneider and quarterbacks

The other side to this, of course, is it’s a rare opportunity to pick this high and they didn’t trade Russell Wilson without a plan. I doubt that plan was to just see how it goes with Smith and Lock and see where they were in a year.

The feeling throughout last summer was the Seahawks aren’t going to acquire someone like Baker Mayfield or trade for another QB. They were going to roll with what they had, save their picks and look to draft a quarterback in 2023.

Schneider is from the Green Bay school of GM-ing. They love QB’s. Executives with the Packers’ DNA pride themselves on their quarterback picks.

If he thinks Anthony Richardson is the next Josh Allen, he’ll take him. If he sees Will Levis’ 2021 tape in Seattle’s offense and believes he can be a major player — he’ll take him. If he passes on either — we’ll know what he thinks about them.

Again — don’t ignore his history of really liking players with traits. One of the first big moves Carroll and Schneider made was to trade a third round pick to the Chargers for Charlie Whitehurst. As part of that deal, they also swapped second rounders — dropping a whole twenty spots to go from #40 to #60. It was a hugely significant trade fans and media often forget about.

Will it really be that surprising if Schneider is wowed by the arm of Levis or Richardson?

My hunch is they had a player or players in mind when they made that Wilson trade. My other hunch is they were prepared, if needed, to use their draft stock to go and get their chosen quarterback in this draft.

Perhaps they have adjusted their plan based on what happened during 2022? Namely the poor play of the defense and the surprising play of Smith? Or maybe they’re sticking to their guns and quite like the whole world thinking they’re desperate to re-sign Smith because they don’t like the quarterbacks in the draft?

We won’t have too long to find out — but it’s worth keeping an open mind because there’s a variety of possibilities.

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This interview is also available via ‘The Rebuild’ podcast

I was listening to 710 Seattle Sports yesterday and a clip was played featuring Dave Wyman discussing Geno Smith’s contract situation:

“I feel like, for whatever reason, Geno wants $40m. That’s his number”

Wyman isn’t just casually throwing out the $40m as a suggestion. He is well connected to the team and it was announced yesterday that John Schneider will be appearing on his radio show every Thursday until the draft.

This is a steer. This is a nugget of information, pulling back the curtain and letting fans know where the negotiation is.

Smith’s camp are asking for $40m.

I don’t think it’s worth overreacting too much to the news. This is likely a starting point for negotiations. It’s the same average salary being given to Derek Carr, Dak Prescott and Matt Stafford (although Carr is about to be cut by the Raiders).

This simply sets a high bar for the discussion, while the Seahawks will try to set a low bar. From there, the two sides will work on a compromise. That’s business.

However, there is one problem.

By introducing the $40m number, it normalises the idea of paying Geno Smith $30m. Or the $32.4m he’d get on the franchise tag. Suddenly that feels like a more reasonable number simply because it isn’t $40m.

My response to this is…

No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.

No.

How has this become our reality? How have we gone from the Russell Wilson trade, embracing an opportunity to draft a replacement and potentially benefit from years of cost-effective quarterback play, to having a serious debate about paying Geno Smith a similar salary to the one they shipped to Denver 12 months ago?

Smith had one good season in a journeyman career. It wasn’t even a full season of quality play either. You can make the arguments about why his form tailed off and some are valid points to raise. Yet the truth is he still made errors and could easily have had more turnovers — as noted in a previous article:

Hugh Millen raised an interesting point on KJR on Friday. He pointed to a stat provided by PFF listing ‘turnover worthy plays’ by each quarterback. Smith had the second most in the NFL, just behind Josh Allen. Millen also pointed out that Allen had far more ‘explosive’ passing plays and a lot more rushing yards to compensate for his erraticism.

Building on the point, he then noted that when looking at the top-10 quarterbacks — on average 80.6% of their turnover worthy plays had resulted in actual turnovers. In comparison, Geno Smith saw only 48% of his turnover worthy plays actually result in an interception.

That’s staggering.

If he’d thrown the 80.6% average like the rest of the QB’s in the top-10, he would’ve had 25 picks. Even if he’d had a still well below average 65% — he would’ve led the league in turnovers.

I’m not even sure if this accounts for stuff like the pick-six against San Francisco in Seattle which was called back for a fortuitous penalty. That play was blown dead, after all. So it could be even worse than these numbers suggest.

Regardless, Smith had incredible luck when it came to turnovers this season.

There’s a key point to be raised here. The ridiculous state of middle-class quarterback salaries in the league shouldn’t dictate anything. If a handful of middling QB’s get paid a lot of money, you are not duty-bound to give Geno Smith the same contract.

Nobody can look at the $46m given to Kyler Murray, the $40.5m given to Derek Carr, the $40m given to Dak Prescott, the $35m given to Kirk Cousins or the $29m given to Ryan Tannehill and think that’s money well spent.

Desperation at the position has created a financial problem. Teams fearing life without the ‘good not great’ quarterback end up sleepwalking into awful contracts, handcuffing themselves to mediocrity.

Often those teams cling to the false hope that ‘things might be different next year’. It never is. Season after season we see the same thing. A team good enough not to be bad — but nowhere near good enough to be Champions.

The thing is, you can understand why the Minnesota Vikings are inclined to keep themselves in this rut. They’re picking 24th overall. In order to trade into the top-five, it might cost them three first round picks. Unless they want to launch a major rebuild, they face the prospect of sticking with Cousins or rebuilding painfully.

In that awkward situation — being able to offer the fans some modest hope, being able to sell tickets and merchandise, being able to play a playoff game or two — that makes business sense even if we know the Vikings are never likely to win anything with Cousins on a $35m deal.

Yet isn’t that the point? To win titles. Not make up the playoff numbers.

Now look at the Titans. When they paid Tannehill it was seen as a good move. In the years that followed, Tennessee had to restructure his deal twice because the cost became prohibitive. As a consequence, his three-year deal evolved into a four-year contract. Meanwhile, the Titans haven’t won a single playoff game since he re-signed.

Now, they’re being linked with a big trade up the board into the top-five. To do what? You guessed it — draft a cheaper, more talented quarterback. Just as the 49ers felt obliged to do to try and replace Jimmy Garoppolo.

The Seahawks face no such dilemma. Thanks to Denver, they have the #5 pick. One of the top-four quarterbacks will be available to them at #5. They have an opportunity to try and emulate the Eagles — who were a four-win team in 2020 and a nine-win team in 2021. Now they’re in the Super Bowl.

I am totally convinced that C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young, Will Levis and Anthony Richardson are capable of doing what Jalen Hurts has done. Build the roster around a young quarterback and you can set out to emulate the Eagles.

You’re not guaranteed to succeed. Nobody is saying that. It’s a plan, though, that makes more sense than paying Geno Smith a fortune and being forced to rely solely on the draft to add to your roster because most of your cap space is gone.

I’ve always felt keeping Geno Smith as your answer to Alex Smith in Kansas City — then drafting an heir apparent — is the best plan. That requires a bridge contract though. Not $40m. Not $32.4m. Not $30m.

I’m not even sure why we’re talking about these numbers. Who is the other team creating a heated market for Geno? Who is it? Every single article I read barely mentions Smith as an option for the Saints, Jets, Panthers, Colts etc. There’s plenty of Aaron Rodgers chatter, Derek Carr speculation and Jimmy Garoppolo talk. There’s never anything about Geno Smith.

The only team I can imagine having interest is Tampa Bay. Todd Bowles knows Geno from their New York Jets days and they’re interviewing Dave Canales, Seattle’s QB coach, for their offensive coordinator role.

The Buccs can’t rebuild because they have too many hefty contracts. Their only solution is to re-work deals to reduce their -$58m cap hole they’re currently in.

That in itself is a problem though. The one other potential suitor that appears obvious is $58m over the cap. Are they really in a position to throw money at Smith?

Why do the Seahawks need to even go as high as $30m? Just because that’s perceived to be market value? Screw market value. He’s worth as much as the highest bidder is willing to pay. The Seahawks should be bold — let him test the market. Be prepared to lose him. It’d be worth it to get a better deal, save money and potentially land Smith on another incentivised contract. If someone does offer around $30m — good for him. Wish him well and move on.

A lot of fans will say the cap is meaningless and the Seahawks can structure a deal to avoid a big cap hit this year. That’s very true. However, if you’re signing someone to a contract worth $30-35m a year — you can’t have a cheap year-one cap-hit unless the money becomes enormous in future seasons. That will lead to dead money if you part ways, or you’ll be left paying a massive amount to a quarterback in his mid-30’s — limiting what you can do elsewhere to improve your roster.

Essentially whatever money you give to Geno could be spent elsewhere — possibly on multiple players.

This brings me back to the original point. Just because the quarterback market is completely dumb, doesn’t mean YOU have to join in. You can say ‘no’. You can draft a quarterback at #5. You can make Drew Lock your bridge, or someone else.

You don’t have to pay Geno Smith — especially when the likelihood is with or without Smith, you are building for another two off-seasons at least. And like Cousins, Tannehill, Carr and co — is he ever going to be able to win you a Super Bowl if he’s taking up a large chunk of your cap space and needing to cover flaws on the roster?

Let’s look at how the franchise-tag amount of $32.4m — a figure a lot of people seem comfortable with — compares to other positions. The stupidity of overpaying at quarterback is really brought home by the following list of players and their average salaries:

Myles Garrett — $25m
Maxx Crosby — $23m
Chris Jones — $20m
Jalen Ramsey — $20m
Haason Reddick — $15m
Trey Hendrickson — $15m
Budda Baker — $14.75m
D.J. Reader — $13.25m
Javon Hargrave — $13m

Look at the impact players you could sign, that have been available in free agency recently, for the price of Geno Smith. That’s before we even get into the point that Smith’s agents are supposedly asking for a contract worth $15m more than Myles Garrett’s.

Again — this is silly. We shouldn’t care ‘what the market says’ at quarterback. The market is broken. You eat it and accept it for a Joe Burrow or Patrick Mahomes. You know it’s going to cost you. But the simple fact is it’s too expensive to sign non-elite quarterbacks. You should be prepared to look elsewhere to find value, just as you did in 2022 when you paid Smith $3.5m plus incentives.

Turning that into a contract worth nearly ten times the amount would be the polar opposite of value. It’d be even worse if Smith’s form was akin to the second half of the 2022 season for an extended period.

People talk about the risk of going the rookie route. Sure. Let’s also acknowledge that committing massive money to Smith is also a risk.

I think there’s a possibility we’ll begin to view the smart, dynamic teams as the ones who game the QB market.

The Seahawks should be prepared to do that. At the moment, all the signs are they’re preparing to pay Smith. Maybe they’ll create a deal that ‘looks’ good so Geno can say he won a great contract but in reality, gives the team plenty of leeway?

I can only hope that’s true. Keeping a player you like and believe in is understandable but it has to be for the right price. Forty million dollars is not the right price for Geno Smith.

I still think fans and media alike should be more prepared to embrace drafting a quarterback at #5, signing a cheaper bridge quarterback like Drew Lock, using your cap saving to add talent in free agency and then using your remaining premium stock at picks #20, #38 and #53 to add the best talent available.

This is a rebuild, not a quick haircut and off you go.

It’s time to be firm, strict and prepared to move on to another quarterback if needs be. This is a better quarterback draft than many are suggesting, too.

Smith and the Seahawks are good for each other but not for an eye-watering amount of money. The Seahawks should be the team that says ‘no’ to the nonsense of the quarterback money market. The Seahawks should set out to be the trailblazers who game the system — using their own offensive scheme — to produce value at a cheaper price.

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I’m a little bit surprised that Notre Dame star Michael Mayer is getting a lukewarm review in the media.

Oregon State’s Luke Musgrave is getting a lot more hype. I really like Musgrave and think he deserves plenty of attention. But to say he should be ahead of Mayer, purely due to expected testing results, doesn’t fully add up.

Musgrave played in just two games last season due to injury. His career high for yardage is 304 in 2021. He only has two career touchdowns.

This isn’t the be-all and end-all and I’m not going to indulge in any box-score scouting. I think it’s difficult though to put Musgrave ahead of one of the most productive, dangerous, complete tight ends in college football history — purely based on how the two are expected to perform at the combine.

The main reason for this is you can make a strong case that agility and short-area quickness is more important than straight-line speed. A tight end isn’t typically going to be running forty-yards downfield in a straight line. They are expected to separate from smaller defenders at the second level, usually late in a route. Having burst to create subtle separation or the agility to change direction quickly and create an opening feels more important.

The results back that up.

Rob Gronkowski’s 4.68 forty at 264lbs is a good time. It’s certainly faster than the speculated 4.8 that Mayer is set to run. However — Gronk also had some pretty special results that aren’t often discussed. For example, he ran a 1.58 10-yard split. Typically anything in the 1.5’s is considered ‘elite’ for an edge rusher. For a 264lbs tight end to do that is mightily impressive. He also ran a solid 4.47 short shuttle.

That kind of short-area quickness over 10-yards and his ability to change direction at his size helped Gronk become the legend we know today.

Travis Kelce also ran a very good forty time for his size (4.61 at 255lbs). The point isn’t to suggest that running a decent forty isn’t indicative of anything at all. Yet Kelce also ran a very similar 10-yard split to Gronk (1.61). His short shuttle was a 4.42 and he added a 7.09 three-cone. Again — he combined short-area quickness with great agility.

Mark Andrews at Baltimore ran a 1.54 10-yard split at 256lbs then ran a 4.38 short shuttle. Those are incredible times and with hindsight, it’s a nonsense he lasted deep into round three.

I don’t have a 10-yard split for Dallas Goedert but he did run a 4.31 short shuttle and a 7.02 three-cone at 256lbs.

Zach Ertz only ran a 4.76 forty at 249lbs — a pretty awful time. Yet his short shuttle was a 4.47 and his three-cone a 7.08. That agility testing has shown up many times in a long, successful career.

T.J. Hockenson could really begin to shine in Minnesota. He only ran a 4.70 at 251lbs which comparatively isn’t very good. Yet he ran a blistering 4.18 short shuttle and a 7.02 three-cone.

That’s a decent chunk of evidence that even if you don’t run a great forty — you can still excel if you test well in the 10-yard split and/or agility testing.

The Seahawks have clearly latched on to the importance of agility testing for tight ends because virtually every one they’ve signed or drafted in the Carroll/Schneider era has followed a pattern:

Luke Willson — 4.29 (ss), 7.08 (3c)
Will Dissly — 4.40 (ss), 7.07 (3c)
Nick Vannett — 4.20 (ss), 7.05 (3c)
Anthony McCoy — 4.57 (ss), 6.99 (3c)
Zach Miller — 4.42 (ss), 7.01 (3c)
Jimmy Graham — 4.45 (ss), 6.90 (3c)
Greg Olsen — 4.48 (ss), 7.04 (3c)
Colby Parkinson — 4.46 (ss), 7.15 (3c)
Gerald Everett — 4.33 (ss), 6.99 (3c)
Noah Fant — 4.22 (ss), 6.81 (3c)

That’s an average short shuttle of 4.38 seconds and an average three cone of 7.01 seconds. Both would be incredible times for a tight end.

Will Dissly is a good example to highlight here. He only ran a 4.87 at 262lbs. It’s not impossible Mayer runs a similar time. Yet his 4.40 short shuttle and 7.07 three-cone, plus his attitude and blocking-ability, had him pegged as a ‘must draft’ for the Seahawks in 2018.

So really, it doesn’t what Mayer runs at the combine. If he ends up running a similar time to Dissly, it could simply push him into the welcoming arms of a team selecting later in round one — such as the Seahawks.

I would expect Mayer to test well in the short shuttle and three cone. When you watch him on tape, time and time again you see his ability to create last-minute separation. There are plenty of examples where he’s being covered by a smaller, far quicker slot corner and yet late in the route he will pivot at the last minute, take a step away from the defender and present an easy target for the quarterback.

Aside from that there are major plus-points to his game. I think he’s the best player I’ve watched at catching the ball away from his body. Inaccurate throws that are high and wide are made to look easy. He has soft-hands. He uses his size brilliantly to box-out defenders and dominate 1v1’s. He will make difficult over-the-shoulder grabs. He can contort his body and adjust to the flight of the ball.

It’s not easy to record 2099 receiving yards in three seasons as a college tight end, with 18 touchdowns. Especially when you’re not playing in a prolific offense with a big-name quarterback.

On top of this, Mayer is basically ‘Mr. Football’. His personality and attitude speak to his love for the game. He does what it takes to win as a blocker and you can put him in any play-call and he can get the job done as a receiver or blocker. He’ll be able to start in week one and deliver results.

Provided he tests as well as I think he will in the short shuttle and three-cone, I have full faith that he can become a very useful pass-catcher and potentially fit in as a dynamic target. You need three good weapons in the modern NFL. He can be one from the tight end position.

He fits everything the Seahawks look for and given their self-confessed desire not to reach for need and focus on the right type of characters — Mayer would fit the bill if he somehow lasts to #20.

Why would they consider drafting a tight end? It’s about planning ahead. Noah Fant and Colby Parkinson are both free agents after the 2023 season. Dissly has a contract until the end of 2024 but you’ll need more than one tight end.

Pete Carroll appeared on 710 Seattle Sports during the season and spoke about the USC vs Notre Dame game, where he referenced the quality of Notre Dame’s tight end (speaking of Mayer). It shouldn’t be a surprise if the Seahawks rate him highly and see him as a strong character and playing-style fit.

While addressing needs is going to be important — adding talent you can build around for the next five years is also key. You’re not just drafting for the 2023 season. Mayer might not fill an immediate need but he could be a focal point for years to come.

I personally think there are too many TE-needy teams between #11-19 to think he’ll last. He’s a really good player. If he did fall to #20 though, he should be a consideration for Seattle.

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When I posted my latest mock draft on Sunday I gave the Seahawks Dawand Jones at #20 — suggesting the Seahawks could potentially draft him as a ‘best player available’ while kicking Abraham Lucas inside to right guard.

It wasn’t something I wrote glibly. As someone who graded Lucas as a first round tackle throughout the process last year, it was good to see him outperform many of his peers. His 68.4 PFF grade is a really good start to his NFL career — bettering top-10 picks Ikem Ekwonu (65.3), Charles Cross (63.1) and Evan Neal (41.7).

The Seahawks potentially have a right tackle for the long-term tied up on a third-round contract for the next three seasons.

Without a doubt, Lucas was one of the best picks in the 2022 draft in terms of value and talent. It was ridiculous he didn’t get more attention. He was excellent at the Senior Bowl. His combine was incredible — running a 4.92 forty at 6-6 and 315lbs. His 4.40 short shuttle was an elite time. He had 34-inch arms. During on-field drills, Lucas was easily the most impressive performer.

He had no business lasting to round three.

The likelihood is he will stay at right tackle and the Seahawks will simply bring in a new right guard. There are options in the draft. Nick Broeker is an ideal scheme fit for a zone blocking team and he was extremely impressive in the Senior Bowl game combining with Nick Saldiveri — who played center but was a college right guard who also fits the bill. McClendon Curtis has great length and also had an impressive week in Mobile and could be an option. The Rams’ scheme likes converted tackles at guard so Tyler Steen could be a candidate, or Asim Richards. If they wanted to draft someone in the first two days, Jaelyn Duncan has the athleticism and frame to kick inside. I even think Ryan Hayes, who struggled at tackle on day one, is worth a look to see if he can make it at guard.

While the twitter world focuses on players who are a bit overrated like O’Cyrus Torrence, there are plenty of names here. Most of these players will be available between rounds 3-7 too. You don’t have to shift your impressive starting right tackle to a new position.

The reason I thought it was worth considering though is two-fold. Firstly, the Seahawks have a tendency to move their offensive linemen around. There was no real need to switch Damien Lewis to left guard after a good rookie season on the right. They did it anyway to accommodate Gabe Jackson. Lewis’ Pff grade dropped from 70.2 in year one to 57.1 in year two. Thankfully, he now appears to have adjusted to the change — scoring a 71.8 grade in 2022.

Ethan Pocic was moved around the line and so was Justin Britt. Phil Haynes has been used as a flexible lineman. There are others I’ve probably forgotten about.

Kicking Lucas to right guard would also fit in with the idea that the Rams use converted tackles at guard. Lucas has the athleticism and agility to make it work in this scheme. There’d be no reason to think he couldn’t develop into a productive interior lineman.

The other reason is what’s available at #20. It could be a bit of a sweet-spot for the tackle position. There are two players — Darnell Wright and Dawand Jones — who are big, hulking, physical and incredibly impressive. If the Seahawks didn’t have Lucas, I’d be shouting almost daily on this blog to draft one of them.

They are not like other ‘big tackles’ we’ve seen in previous years. Remember Daniel Faalele? Remember all the hype he was getting a year ago? He struggled at the Senior Bowl and looked too big, clumsy, way too stiff and incapable of starting in the NFL at tackle. For some reason, the media (who I think were watching the same week of practise but who knows?) thought he did well.

Take this mock draft for example which had Faalele going 20th overall just after the Senior Bowl. He was the 110th pick in the end. Nothing about his performance in Mobile suggested ‘first round pick’. Nothing.

When you watch Jones, who is virtually the same size as Faalele, it’s totally different. He doesn’t look like he needs to shift 50lbs of bad weight. He actually looks natural at the size. He had his jersey lifted up for practise and was barely carrying any bad weight. He looked in good shape — just an absolute behemoth. He moved well on his feet. He was getting off the ball quicker than Isaiah Foskey to seal the edge. Jones knew how to make the most of his length and dominated, overpowering most of his opponents in 1v1 combat.

Wright similarly had a fantastic week. He had a bit of bother against Will McDonald (who will go a lot higher than some of the mocks are suggesting after his Senior Bowl, believe that) but otherwise looked great for his size and locked down most of his reps. In the game he was bullying people, just like he did in practise. Let’s not forget how he shut-down Will Anderson during the season.

I think they’ve been the top two tackles in the draft for some time. I doubt anything will change that. Paris Johnson Jr doesn’t excite me and the only real argument you can make that Wright and Jones aren’t OT1 and OT2 is whether you think Jaelyn Duncan deserves to stick at tackle, given he can play the left-hand side and will test very well.

If Wright and/or Jones test well at the combine, it shouldn’t be a surprise if they get into the top-15 range. Assuming men sized at 342lbs and 375lbs don’t win the underwear Olympics, there’s a chance that when Seattle’s on the clock at #20 — both players will be very tempting.

The Seahawks don’t beat anyone up in the trenches and haven’t done so for a long time, despite having a philosophy that calls for it. Being able to line-up with a front including Lewis, Lucas and one of Wright or Jones would give you an opportunity to frighten teams with your size, power and aggression. There’s winning getting off the bus and there’s throwing out a 6-8, 375lbs athlete with nearly 37-inch arms out there and saying, ‘good luck’.

It’s an exciting thought. Exciting enough to at least contemplate moving Lucas — who some people at least thought would find a home at guard:

“Too many disappointments are coming out of the program on the offensive line so I think that works against him. I think he can be a make-it guard, though.” — Director of scouting for AFC team

“Lucas is scheme-limited but has eventual starting potential at either right tackle or guard.” — Lance Zierlein

I think you could even put Darnell Wright at guard and keep Lucas at tackle (although Jones should stay on the outside with his incredible length).

The idea of lining up and kicking an opponents’ arse in the trenches is something I think most people can buy into.

Again — what I think is more likely is they’ll keep Lucas at right tackle and draft a guard in the middle rounds from the options listed earlier. I think at #20 there will be very appealing defensive line options — and I’d keep a very close eye on Will McDonald who just screams Seahawks with his length and physical profile.

If you want to bully opponents up front though — continuing to add talent and size to your offensive line would be a way to do it.

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Some of the Seahawks’ best moves in the Carroll/Schneider have been opportunistic.

The Marshawn Lynch trade, when the league had determined he was too much of a problem child. Capitalising on Bennet and Avril’s unexpectedly cold free agent market. Seeing beyond a 5-10 frame and drafting a franchise quarterback in round three.

There have, of course, been some fairly expensive mistakes too as they’ve tried to make magic happen again.

I do think this is part of their DNA though. They try to see where the league is taking its eye off the ball and strike.

The latest example, as I touched on recently in my most recent mock draft article, could be Hendon Hooker.

Regulars to the blog will know I tempered a lot of the Hooker hype during the season. Unquestionably he played well in 2022 and he might’ve won the Heisman if it wasn’t for the ACL injury he suffered near the end of the season. He helped make Tennessee relevant for the first time in years — no mean feat.

I also think the Josh Heupel offense is brilliant at making life easy for the quarterback. Hooker had an incredible number of wide-open throws. Watch this highlight video and note how many times you hear the commentator say ‘wide open’ when he throws. It’s preposterous, really. He wasn’t asked to do anything challenging and he played in a system not too unlike the ones at Ohio State and Washington. It’s mass production with a lot of the heavy lifting being done at the sideline.

PFF tallies ‘big time throws’ — defined as ‘a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window’. Hooker is credited with just two ‘big time’ throws in 2022.

He also benefitted from having two high draft picks to throw to (Jalin Hyatt & Cedric Tillman) and he had a good offensive line, including brilliant right tackle Darnell Wright. Not many quarterbacks are able to rely on their right tackle to shut down Will Anderson.

Even so, Hooker did his part in executing the system. He’s athletic and can move around to extend plays when needed. He doesn’t have a rocket arm but it’s in the ‘good enough’ category. He’s a player you at last carry some hope for at the next level.

Truth be told it’s not that impossible to imagine him coming in to the NFL and being able to spearhead a team in the way Jalen Hurts is doing. Anyone who watched Hurts in college probably didn’t point and say ‘this guy will be a Super Bowl QB one day’. He was benched by Alabama, transferred to Oklahoma and did pretty well for the Sooners — but nothing out of the ordinary.

Hurts was viewed as a late round pick until he performed well at the Senior Bowl, then went to the combine and showed off a better-than-expected arm. He also ran well (4.59 forty), jumped a 35-inch vertical and had nearly 10-inch hands. At 6-1 and 222lbs, he wasn’t too small for it to be a problem. A case was being built to take him seriously and the Eagles did — drafting him in round two.

It’s enabled the Eagles to save money at a very expensive position, building a team good enough to contend around Hurts. They may win a Championship next week as a consequence.

The Seahawks should be aiming to try and mimic this plan. Yet it seems inevitable they will instead invest considerably in Geno Smith to try and retain at least a middle-tier status within the league. They will hope they can improve other areas of the team via the draft. Provided they don’t lumber themselves with a challenging contract in 2024/2025 — that’s OK. If Smith can be their answer to Alex Smith in Kansas City, that’s ideal. Committing major resources though, or taking on masses of dead money down the line, would be problematic.

They’d also need a QB answer for the future. If they’re minded to go defense early, they’ll almost certainly want to draft a quarterback at some point. The class is depleted though, with the bulk of quarterback prospects staying in college or transferring to new teams.

Hooker would present a possible solution. He’d provide a chance to take a shot on a player to have ‘one in the chamber’ as John Schneider would say.

It would fit well with their opportunistic manner. Hooker’s stock is likely to be more impacted than some think by the injury. He might not be able to play much (if at all) in year one. He’s 25-years-old (his birthday is in January) and he’s already several months older than Jalen Hurts.

The combination of health, favourable scheme and age isn’t a great mix. Could he go in the late second like Hurts to a team able to stash a QB? Possibly — and maybe that’s the range where the Seahawks would consider him? I do think, though, there’s a chance he will last into round three or even the early part of round four. After all, if he’s a player who isn’t starting until he’s about 27 or 28-years-old, that tempers his stock considerably.

That’s where Seattle might believe they can strike. They bring back Smith and potentially Drew Lock. They redshirt Hooker for a year with the idea of him getting into the mix in 2024 as a competitor to start. Eventually he could be a cost-effective replacement for Smith that allows Seattle, sporting a better roster, to use their cap saving to put the finishing touches to some key areas.

There are some other reasons why this makes a degree of sense.

Unlike several other big name quarterbacks, Hooker didn’t benefit entirely from a constantly clean pocket and still succeeded:

Oregon — 4 sacks in 12 games (0.33 per game)
Georgia — 7 sacks in 13 games (0.54 per game)
Washington — 7 sacks in 12 games (0.58 per game)
Ohio State — 8 sacks in 12 games (0.67 per game)
Florida — 12 sacks in 12 games (1.00 per game)
Alabama — 20 sacks in 12 games (1.67 per game)
Tennessee — 23 sacks in 12 games (1.92 per game)
Kentucky — 42 sacks in 12 games (3.50 per game)

We know Pete Carroll places a strong emphasis on avoiding turnovers. Hooker, as I mentioned, had an obscene number of wide-open throws in 2022 and that likely is responsible for the number below. However, he did fair very well in terms of turnover worthy plays:

Dorian Thompson-Robinson — 19
CJ Stroud — 16
Drake Maye — 16
Max Duggan — 15
Will Levis — 13
Anthony Richardson — 13
Quinn Ewers — 12
Caleb Williams — 11
Bryce Young — 9
Bo Nix — 8
Michael Penix Jr — 8
Tanner McKee — 8
Hendon Hooker — 5

The other thing to mention is hand size. The whole NFL pays attention to this but the Seahawks noted it as a key factor in their Russell Wilson evaluation. He had 10 1/4 inch hands despite his lack of prototypical size. Hooker — who is 6-3 and 208lbs — has 10 1/2 inch hands.

It was interesting to hear last week that Hooker was allowed to attend the Senior Bowl. Typically injured or non-participating players are not invited. This only happened during the Covid year, when the likes of DeVonta Smith where allowed to be there. Given his Alabama connections and Heisman-winning season, it was also a bit of a coup to have him involved in any way at all.

This was different and Jim Nagy admitted they did it as a favour to Hooker, who had requested the chance to come to Mobile. Nagy spoke about his admiration for the player and who he was as a person. They wanted to let him have the chance to speak to teams and be part of the Senior Bowl experience.

It reflects well on Hooker’s character — something that will appeal to Seattle and all the other teams.

It only takes one other team to take him off the board and any plan to draft and stash him would fail. I do wonder, though, whether such a plan could appeal to the Seahawks. Draft for other areas of the team early, re-sign the quarterbacks on the roster, then draft Hooker later on as a player who won’t be any threat to Smith and/or Lock in 2023 but could emerge as a contender to start from 2024 or 2025.

I think it makes some sense. It’s just something to keep in mind.

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It’s starting to feel like the first three picks will all be quarterbacks.

In an article by the Athletic’s Jeff Howe, the mood music in the NFL is being played:

Speaking with team executives — who were granted anonymity to speak freely — throughout the week, the consensus remains that Alabama’s Bryce Young, Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud and Kentucky’s Will Levis are in the top tier with extremely high-end talent. Florida’s Anthony Richardson is also viewed as a first-round candidate.

We’ve had drafts before where two or three quarterbacks emerge as the ‘got to have’ group. In those instances, teams have been very aggressive trading up to make sure they don’t miss out. In 2023, it feels we’ll see that again.

Panthers GM Scott Fitterer is already talking publicly about trading up. Impatient owner David Tepper has been after a quarterback since buying the team five years ago. It feels inevitable that Carolina will do what it takes to get into the top three.

The Colts are in a similar position. After years of renting ageing veterans, they now need to invest in a young player for the long term.

Houston at #2 are also expected to draft a quarterback (but they could be a wildcard to go defense, we’ll see). Thus, it feels like Chicago’s #1 pick and Arizona’s #3 pick will be the prime trade spots.

In this mock I wanted to represent that thought and see what it means for the Seahawks. I also want to reflect on what happened at the Senior Bowl.

I think Seattle’s best plan would be to avoid spending millions on Geno Smith, invest in other areas of the team and draft a quarterback to build around for the future. I see no reason why any of the top four quarterbacks, for example, couldn’t do what Jalen Hurts has done in Philadelphia.

That said — if there’s a rush on the position, their options will be limited. Spending to retain Smith might be indicative of the situation they find themselves in. If they don’t view the fourth best quarterback as a good option at #5, they might feel like they’re left with little choice. That doesn’t mean they should be signing Smith to a ridiculous contract like some outlets are suggesting. But it might motivate them to find common ground.

Onto the mock…

The trades explained

I have the Colts trading up to #1 in a deal with the Bears. As part of the arrangement, Chicago receives Indianapolis’ first and third round picks in 2024, a third rounder in 2023 and DeForest Buckner. The Bears ensure they get one of the top-two defenders by sticking in the top-four.

Carolina moves up from #9 to #3, giving the Cardinals one of their second round picks (#61) and their 2024 first round pick. It’s cheaper than the Trey Lance trade because Arizona can stay in the top ten and get a second rounder this year.

First round

#1 Indianapolis (v/CHI) — C.J. Stroud (QB, Ohio State)
I think Stroud will emerge as the most coveted quarterback in the class. His touch passes, to all levels of the field, are the best I’ve season from a quarterback since starting the blog in 2008. He is physically impressive and has excellent character. The one concern was his ability to play outside of Ohio State’s scheme which held his hand for two years. Against Georgia, college football’s elite team, he put all concerns to bed with a creative, improvising, brilliant performance.

#2 Houston — Bryce Young (QB, Alabama)
I spoke to someone ‘in the league’ before the 2022 draft and he told me ‘the league’ was buzzing about Stroud and Young. The concerns about Young’s size are legit and don’t be surprised if he lasts a bit longer than some think. However, he has a winners mentality which will likely appeal to new Head Coach DeMeco Ryans and let’s not forget Ryans has just been coaching in San Francisco, where they’ve enjoyed success with non-prototypes like Jimmy Garoppolo and Brock Purdy.

#3 Carolina (v/ARI) — Will Levis (QB, Kentucky)
The Levis negativity has been preposterous at times. Kentucky were a shambles in 2022. When they had a semblance of an offensive line and a second round pick at receiver in 2021, plus a switched-on Sean McVay disciple at coordinator, Levis was outstanding. It wouldn’t be a surprise to me if the Seahawks had legit interest in Levis, due to his familiarity with their scheme. I think the Panthers will see an ideal fit and a player who can start quickly for a competitive roster that already has a defense and an O-line in place. They’re ready to win a poor NFC South.

#4 Chicago (v/IND) — Will Anderson (EDGE, Alabama)
If the Bears land DeForest Buckner by trading down from #1 to #4, their next aim should be to land a dynamic edge rusher. Anderson would provide a genuine threat.

#5 Seattle — Jalen Carter (DT, Georgia)
Many people consider Carter to be the best player in the draft. So why could he fall to #5? It’s not just Todd McShay referring to character concerns. Lance Zierlein in his write-up for Carter notes, “Scouts say maturity has been an issue for him at times.” Then there’s our own homework on this blog, discovering that Carter spoke last April about how improving his conditioning was a priority in 2022, only to see him look as tired as any player I’ve ever seen in college football half-way through the crucial Ohio State playoff game while also labouring during the first drive of the LSU game in the SEC Championship. The concerns are legit. However, the Seahawks have needed a player like this for a long time. They might be prepared to roll the dice, simply because he’s that talented. Don’t be surprised though if during this process, there’s increased chatter about how teams view Carter.

#6 Detroit (v/LA) — Bijan Robinson (RB, Texas)
Robinson will be the top rated player on many draft boards. He is exceptional — one of the best players to enter the league in recent years. The Lions snap him up and feel great about it. He is a complete playmaker and can mix Christian McCaffrey’s versatility with Saquon Barkley’s explosive qualities. He changes direction better than both players and accelerates in a way I don’t recall seeing before. A formidable talent.

#7 Las Vegas — Tyree Wilson (DE, Texas Tech)
I think the Raiders will solve their quarterback situation by trading for Aaron Rodgers. I don’t know what that deal would look like, given he’s 40-years-old this year and the Packers have a nightmare cap situation. He’s also coming off a middling season. Thus, it might not be that expensive to get him — with both player and team in Green Bay seemingly ready to part ways. This would free up Vegas to look elsewhere at #7. We all know Wilson has great length and size. He is unique in that regard. His testing will be key though because he won’t go seventh overall purely due to long arms and a great body. If he can show quickness, agility and explosive traits, look out.

#8 Atlanta — Anthony Richardson (QB, Florida)
I think there’s every chance Richardson goes earlier than this. Not enough people are focusing on his superstar potential. Instead they’re clinging to negatives for a player with one season of starting experience. When you look at him as someone with unlimited upside and the potential to be one of the faces of the NFL — it’s not hard to imagine him going in the top-five. Yes he has plenty to work on but so do most players entering the league. He could be a dynamo in Atlanta with the offense they’re building.

#9 Arizona (v/CAR) — Christian Gonzalez (CB, Oregon)
After moving down from #3, the Cardinals invest in a cornerback who is fiery and competitive, has decent size and is going to be among the best testers at the combine. He has playmaking quality and could go very early.

#10 Philadelphia (v/NO) — Brian Branch (S, Alabama)
A Rolls Royce of a defender who is so versatile and can do a bit of everything. He is going to rise and rise throughout this process. Both of Philly’s starters at his position are hitting free agency.

#11 Tennessee — Michael Mayer (TE, Notre Dame)
This would be a perfect pick for the Titans. Mayer is one of the best prospects in the draft and will be a very good player early in his career.

#12 Houston (v/CLE) — Luke Musgrave (TE, Oregon State)
When you watch Musgrave on the field, you see what a special athlete looks like at the tight end position. He’s so fluid and almost glides at his size. He’s also a good blocker and will be coveted by many teams. He could be Houston’s answer to George Kittle.

#13 NY Jets — Drew Sanders (LB, Arkansas)
Sanders is highly athletic, flies around the field, hits with violence and when you line him up off the edge, he can produce sacks (9.5 in 2022). There’s every chance he works into the top-15 range.

#14 New England — Myles Murphy (DE, Clemson)
Murphy is an overrated player, promoted beyond his means due to his outstanding athleticism and expected combine performance. However, someone is going to take a chance on him in this range because the positional value and the reward for the light switching on is too great.

#15 Green Bay — Keion White (DE, Georgia Tech)
The Packers are heading into a new era and it could be one that comes with a new identity. Loading up their front seven and continuing to add as many pass rush weapons as possible could be a post-Aaron Rodgers plan.

#16 Washington — Joey Porter Jr (CB, Penn State)
The Commanders need a corner and Porter Jr has the size, the physical tools, the competitive nature and a very balanced, well-spoken manner (he’s not like his dad as a player!) and teams will likely be very high on him.

#17 Pittsburgh — Devon Witherspoon (CB, Illinois)
The Steelers need to get a lot done on defense and the highly competitive Witherspoon would be a good fit in Pittsburgh.

#18 Detroit — Calijah Kancey (DT, Pittsburgh)
The Lions continue to add talent. If they are able to put Bijan Robinson and Calijah Kancey onto a blossoming roster — watch out.

#19 Tampa Bay — Darnell Wright (T, Tennessee)
Tackle isn’t an immediate need for the Buccs but due to their major cap issues, they might look to move Donovan Smith to save money and shift Tristan Wirfs to the blind-side. That would open up a spot at right tackle for Wright. Even if they keep Smith — they could slot Wright in at right guard and be a team that tries to stay competitive post-Tom Brady by winning in the trenches.

#20 Seattle — Dawand Jones (T, Ohio State)
John Schneider was recently interviewed by 710 Seattle Sports and he said, in relation to the 2022 draft, that they focused more on talent than need. It’s no coincidence that they had their best draft in years. So why do I have them drafting a right tackle, one year after hitting a home-run with Abraham Lucas? There are, actually, some valid reasons why this could happen. Firstly, Jones is a special talent. There simply aren’t many humans who are 6-8, 375lbs, have nearly 37-inch arms and carry minimal bad weight. If we’re talking best player available, he might be it here. Secondly, the Seahawks have been known to move their linemen around — rightly or wrongly. Damien Lewis excelled as a rookie at right guard, before being bumped over to the left to accommodate Gabe Jackson. It wouldn’t go against the grain for the Seahawks to shift Lucas from right tackle to right guard, where many NFL evaluators projected him a year ago. Finally, there’s the scheme to consider. The Seahawks have transplanted the Rams zone-blocking system. The Rams under McVay typically have lighter converted tackles starting at guard. They also like size at tackle. When they won the Super Bowl they had college tackles Austin Corbett (6-4, 306lbs) and David Edwards (6-6, 308lbs) at guard and Rob Havenstein (6-8, 330lbs) at right tackle. So it’s perhaps not a total stretch that Lucas could move to right guard with Jones taking over at tackle. It’s not necessarily what I would do but I don’t think it’s something to completely write-off as a possibility.

#21 Miami — forfeited
The Dolphins really needed this pick to kick on.

#22 LA Chargers — Quentin Johnston (WR, TCU)
Johnston is going to shine at the combine and when that happens, he will have a floor in round one and this might be it.

#23 Baltimore — Will McDonald (EDGE, Iowa State)
He performed well at the Senior Bowl and reminded everyone why he was so highly rated going into the 2022 season. He has everything to be an excellent edge rusher but needs to find a way to become consistent and make the most of his incredible athleticism and length.

#24 Minnesota — Cam Smith (CB, South Carolina)
The Vikings need a cornerback and I think teams are going to be attracted to Smith’s playing style and size.

#25 Jacksonville — Jalin Hyatt (WR, Tennessee)
He has a sixth gear that allows him to create late separation and it can be deadly on downfield shots.

#26 NY Giants — Zay Flowers (WR, Boston College)
Flowers is an incredibly talented player who could go earlier than this. His ability to change direction and accelerate is the best I’ve seen since starting the blog in 2008.

#27 Dallas — Peter Skoronski (G, Northwestern)
Skoronski is difficult to assess. He has to kick inside due to a lack of length and he can be out-leveraged due to his short arms. Is he powerful enough? There are things to like though — he’s a natural lineman with reasonable technique and he has NFL bloodlines.

#28 Buffalo — Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, Alabama)
Gibbs warrants consideration here as a major X-factor talent. He’s a tremendous receiver and could be reliably used in the passing game and during two-minute drills. At times he carried Alabama last season and was a threat to score every time he touched the ball. If he doesn’t run in the 4.2’s or 4.3’s it’ll be a surprise.

#29 Cincinnati — Dalton Kincaid (TE, Utah)
He had a tremendous 2022 season and he could be an absolute force in a Cincy offense that has so many ways to beat you already.

#30 New Orleans (v/DEN, SF) — Keeanu Benton (DT, Wisconsin)
After an excellent Senior Bowl, he’s trending upwards. The Saints badly need some interior defensive line help. Benton can contribute as a run defender and a pass rusher.

#31 Kansas City — Mazi Smith (DT, Michigan)
The Chiefs love big-time athletes and often draft combine stars. Smith is going to be one of the standouts in Indianapolis and could go earlier than this.

#32 Philadelphia — Lukas Van Ness (DE, Iowa)
He has plenty of flashes on tape but the fact is he wasn’t a starter at Iowa.

Round two

#33 Pittsburgh (v/CHI) — Jordan Addison (WR, USC)
In an attempt to make life easier for Kenny Pickett, why not add a receiver he helped to win the Biletnikoff in 2021?

#34 Houston — Broderick Jones (G, Georgia)
He keeps dipping his head into blocks and there are concerns about his size that could see him kick inside to guard.

#35 Arizona — Tuli Tuipulotu (DE, USC)
The Cardinals continue to build up their defensive front with a player who may be unorthodox but finished the season with 13.5 sacks.

#36 Indianapolis — Bryan Bresee (DT, Clemson)
After moving on from DeForest Buckner, the Colts bring in a replacement with a lot of athletic upside. Bresee falls, however, because he’s simply missed too many games through injury and illness, he is incredibly inconsistent and his arm length is a question mark.

#37 LA Rams — Emmanuel Forbes (CB, Mississippi State)
A long lean cornerback who has a knack for breaking on the ball to make interceptions (six in 2022 including three pick-sixes).

#38 Seattle (v/DEN) — Adetomiwa Adebawore (DE, Northwestern)
The Seahawks have a history of tapping into talent from the Senior Bowl and nobody impressed more than ‘Ade Ade’ this year. He was dominant at times in the 1v1 sessions — showing an ability to drive blockers back into the pocket, disengage and explode to the quarterback. He regularly had team-mates howling with delight at his reps. He lasts this long purely due to his tweener nature. At 6-1 and 284lbs he doesn’t have a natural home off the edge or inside. He’s going to have to be a rotational impact player. However, that’s justifiable for a team like the Seahawks who badly lack any kind of consistent disruption. His 34-inch arms at his height mean he wins so many leverage battles and with nearly 11-inch hands — he clamps onto opponents and finishes. He is expected to run a 4.05 short shuttle and a 6.9 three-cone, plus jump a 37.5 inch vertical. I almost feel like I’m talking myself out of putting him here and slotting him into round one. The size could hold him back — for Seattle though, this is another potential impact player for their defensive front.

#39 Las Vegas — D.J. Turner (CB, Michigan)
This is the type of corner Josh McDaniels drafted for Denver. Turner will impress at the combine.

#40 Carolina — Tucker Kraft (TE, South Dakota State)
Kraft is a highly underrated player who deserves top-40 consideration. He’s not far behind the top-three TE’s.

#41 New Orleans — B.J. Ojulari (EDGE, LSU)
As they reload their defense — adding a dynamic edge would be a wise move. Ojulari combines length, talent and leadership to make for an intriguing player.

#42 Tennessee — John Michael Schmitz (C, Minnesota)
I’m still not fully sold on Schmitz. He has the size for Seattle’s blocking scheme but I’m always left wanting a bit more from him. Good but arguably not much potential to be great.

#43 Cleveland — K.J. Henry (EDGE, Clemson)
Of all Clemson’s D-liners, he was the most disruptive in 2022.

#44 NY Jets — JL Skinner (S, Boise State)
Robert Salah brings in a player who somewhat resembles Kam Chancellor.

#45 Atlanta — Zach Harrison (DE, Ohio State)
Harrison will go to the combine, put on a show and some teams will throw out the lack of production and inconsistent play and believe they can make him a starter.

#46 Green Bay — Christopher Smith (S, Georgia)
He had such a good season for the Bulldogs — flying around as a free safety, running up to the line and hitting with a powerful punch. I think someone will fall in love with him.

#47 New England — Nolan Smith (LB, Georgia)
This is the type of tweener-linebacker-rusher Bill Belichick keeps drafting. His character will appeal to New England too.

#48 Washington — Trenton Simpson (LB, Clemson)
Simpson did not have a good 2022 season and will rely on good testing numbers to stick in round two.

#49 Detroit — Kelee Ringo (CB, Georgia)
Ringo is a great athlete with amazing size but he gets beat far too often — on both deep routes and shorter inside slants.

#50 Pittsburgh — Paris Johnson Jr (T, Ohio State)
I’ve always felt underwhelmed watching him.

#51 Tampa Bay — Steve Avila (G, TCU)
I thought he had a fantastic season and did enough in Mobile to go in round two.

#52 Jacksonville — Zacch Pickens (DT, South Carolina)
An athletic, strong player who is flying under the radar.

#53 Miami — Jaelyn Duncan (T, Maryland)
He did well at the Senior Bowl at tackle but his future might be at guard. He’s expected to perform well at the combine.

#54 Seattle — Josh Downs (WR, North Carolina)
The Seahawks need to find a proper WR3. They’ve been looking for a long time but have consistently fallen short. If Downs lasts this far, they should run to the podium. He is a Tyler Lockett clone. He is so dynamic to create separation on shorter routes, he can drive downfield and provide X-factor plays, he can shake away from tight coverage in the red zone and he makes improbable catches including high-pointing the ball beyond taller defenders. Downs has NFL bloodlines — his father played in the league and his Uncle is Dre Bly. His personality is mature and focused, also similar to Lockett. He would be the perfect WR3 and fit wonderfully in Seattle.

#55 NY Giants — Kenny McIntosh (RB, Georgia)
Kirby Smart called McIntosh a bad MF so that’s good enough for me.

#56 Chicago (v/BAL) — Luke Wypler (C, Ohio State)
I’ve always thought he was just steady but the Georgia game suggested he might be ‘steady’ even against top opponents and that has some appeal.

#57 LA Chargers — Byron Young (DE, Alabama)
He consistently pushed the pocket in Mobile having done the same all season at Alabama. He is big, disruptive and tailor-made for the league.

#58 Dallas — Tyjae Spears (RB, Tulane)
A ‘wow’ player who could lead Dallas’ running back for the next few years. He’s quick with an explosive lower-body and he can be a useful tool in the passing game. Love him.

#59 Cincinnati — O’Cyrus Torrence (G, Florida)
The Bengals tend to draft offensive lineman I think are overrated.

#60 Detroit (v/MIN) — Tank Dell (WR, Houston)
A late run on receivers starts with a player who did well to show crisp route-running and suddenness in Mobile.

#61 Arizona (v/CAR, SF) — Jonathan Mingo (WR, Ole Miss)
An underrated player who can help fill the void left when D’Andre Hopkins is dealt.

#62 Buffalo — Jaxson Smith-Njigba (WR, Ohio State)
Someone will eventually take him because he does have talent but his lack of speed and size limits his value, plus he missed virtually the whole of 2022 through injury.

#63 Kansas City — Cedric Tillman (WR, Tennessee)
A big, downfield threat for Patrick Mahomes.

#64 Philadelphia — Zach Charbonnet (RB, UCLA)
He’s explosive, well-sized, can run through contact and he can catch the ball.

Seahawks picks

#5 Jalen Carter (DT)
#20 Dawand Jones (T)
#38 Adetomiwa Adebawore (DE/DT)
#53 Josh Downs (WR)

Final thoughts

This isn’t necessarily the plan I would go for but it feels like the mock ‘fits’ what they might be planning to do. There’s no big reach here. They’re taking good characters aside from a gamble on Jalen Carter. They’re taking two players who excelled at the Senior Bowl. They add disruptive talent to the defensive front. They get a proper WR3 and eventual possible successor to Lockett. They fill a need at right guard.

There is good depth at defensive end to take one on day three to add to your pool of players there. There will be options later on at center and I wonder if they’ll consider signing someone like Garrett Bradbury in free agency. He has the ideal frame for the scheme. At linebacker, I think if you can’t get to Drew Sanders you’re better off waiting until later. That could be an area where they add a veteran player too.

The area not addressed is quarterback and the fact is if you don’t go early at the position, your options are extremely limited.

That said — I would keep an eye on Hendon Hooker. I think he’s a very scheme-dependant player who had a lot of wide open throws in 2022 and he might struggle outside of the brilliant Josh Heupel system. However, it was interesting that Jim Nagy said they don’t typically allow injured or non-participating players to attend the Senior Bowl just to be around teams and be part of it. According to Nagy, they made an exception for Hooker after he requested the opportunity.

That perhaps speaks to how teams are viewing him. Now — his ACL injury and age (25 already) work against him. He won’t play as a rookie and that will temper his stock in a big way. For that reason, he might last deep into round three or four.

The Seahawks might take a chance on him with a stash. He has 10 1/2 inch hands which, as we know, will appeal to John Schneider. If Geno Smith and/or Drew Lock re-signs, they can redshirt him. Just throwing it out there.

Let me know your thoughts in the comments section…

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