Month: January 2024 (Page 3 of 5)

This is a guest post written by Curtis Allen…

The Seahawks have set themselves up for another very intriguing offseason.  They’ve already made the biggest decision a team can make – saying goodbye to the one person responsible for the roster, coaching staff and the gameday implementation of both.

There are several other critical decisions to be made.  As most of us are aware, the Seahawks currently do not have any salary cap room to spend in 2024 at this moment in time.  While they have plenty of ‘movable’ money in the form of non-guaranteed salary and roster bonuses that can be eliminated or otherwise adjusted, some difficult decisions will need to be made — and soon.

We will be tracking and providing analysis of the overall roster and salary cap to keep everyone aware of the options available to the team, as well as the costs and benefits.

Perhaps the biggest piece of that roster (and likely the first roster choice they will have to consider – more on that below) is deciding on Geno Smith.

When a Head Coach is no longer with the team and the starting quarterback is not an entrenched franchise-level player locked into an immovable long-term contract, there will always be questions about his future with the team.  Fair or not, NFL teams’ success begins with that position.

In the case of the Seahawks though, we have an extra layer of intrigue.  Pete Carroll, in his season-ending press conference gave an extremely strong endorsement of Smith, pointing to him as a ‘team strength.’  Days after his dismissal, John Schneider gave a much more sober and balanced answer when asked to assess Smith’s play in 2023.  It is fair to say that the ground the 33-year-old quarterback was standing on got softer with Carroll no longer at the head of the table.

The contract the Seahawks signed Smith to last year gives the team options and flexibility.  It was structured to be revisited after the 2023 season, no matter what the results were on the field.

Let’s review it for ourselves and look at what options the Seahawks have.  We need to start by looking at how Smith did in 2023.

A Brief Look at His Season

John Schneider’s response to the question perfectly encapsulated Smith’s performance this year.  It was ‘good.’  There were things to like and things that were not up to snuff.  Consistently good performances were elusive, just as they were in 2022.  But on a high view level, the overall numbers declined badly.

That is where we need to start.  Numbers are cold and they remove feelings from the equation.  Particularly when we are talking about what an amazing feel-good story that we have all witnessed since trading Russell Wilson away.  This year, Pete Carroll constantly deflected criticism away from his quarterback and presented an extremely positive view of him when asked in press conferences about his occasionally spotty performances.  Such an influential figure speaking that way often shapes a good portion of the narrative for fans.

Context is also critical.

In Smith’s contract, he wagered heavily on himself in 2023, agreeing to escalators for the four major quarterback statistics (plus one team achievement – a playoff appearance) were he to exceed the prior season’s numbers, with as much as $15 million extra dollars available to him.  How did he do?

He was not able to earn any of the escalators.  In fact, he fell well short of the four passing targets.

How short?  So much so, we need to have a look at his performance to assess his future with the team.  His overall performance this year was far less effective than 2022.

Smith played all 17 games in 2022 but only 15 this year, missing the second San Francisco game and the Philadelphia game with injury.  To get a true apples-to-apples comparison, I took his average production over the 15 games and credited him with 2 more games to get a fair representation.  The results are very interesting:

That is a lot of red.  His numbers dropped in every standard quarterback statistic, except for a significant decrease in sacks and hits and a slight improvement in interceptions.

Of particular concern are the touchdowns, completion percentage and the rushing first downs.  We will take them one at a time and give them some context.

Touchdowns

Going from 30 touchdowns to a projected 23 is a major drop.  Smith went from an excellent #6 in the NFL last season all the way down to #20.  The only notable quarterback below him was Trevor Lawrence, with a projected 22 touchdown passes.

Where did the drop in touchdowns come from?  The answer is both revealing and troubling.

Last year, thirteen of Smith’s touchdown passes were of the explosive variety, travelling further than twenty yards.  This year?  Only four went that far.  For added context, one of those four only had a few inches of air on it, as Smith dumped the ball off to Kenneth Walker just past the line of scrimmage in Week Ten against Washington and he took it for a 64-yard touchdown.

To take it a step further, how many touchdown throws were not explosives but still in the healthy 15–19-yard range?  Last year:  five.  This year:  two.

Only six touchdown passes of 15 yards or more.  Last year?  Smith had eighteen.

Those numbers scan when you compare the overall passing statistics from the two seasons.

In 2022, Smith’s passing yards were split between 59% yards before the catch (aka air yards) and 41% yards after the catch.

In 2023?  The numbers went down to 53% / 47%.

That is nearly a 10% swing in rate, which is backed up by Smith’s average depth of target.  It went down from 7.6 yards downfield last year to 7.0 yards this year.  That is an 8% drop and that took him from the middle of the pack to one of the shortest-distance throwers in the NFL, ranking #23 in terms of average pass depth among full time starters.

In and of itself, that strategy is perfectly fine.  Shortening up the field in the ever-quickening NFL is a choice you can stand behind easily.

However, the biggest selling point of shorter passes reveals an even more troubling downturn for Smith in 2023.

Completion Percentage

When you shorten up your passing game, the expectation is that accuracy will improve and the sticks can move more freely.  A nice side benefit of this style comes in the red zone.  An established routine of short, quick passes should yield a higher rate of touchdowns in tighter confines.

Did the Seahawks receive either of those benefits from shortening up their passing game in 2023?  No, they did not.

Smith’s accuracy suffered a shocking drop from the previous year.  In 2022 he was the most accurate passer in the NFL.  It was a stunning achievement for a ‘new’ starter who was not being bottle-fed the offense but regularly making highlight reel plays with his deep throws.

This year we witnessed a regression to the middle of the pack, as he was #15 in the NFL.  We need context in order to grasp this change.

I charted the last five years of NFL quarterback play, noting the year-to-year accuracy change for all quarterbacks that played a combination of at least 30 games in that two-year stretch.

Only two quarterbacks in that sample had a bigger accuracy drop from one year to the next than Smith did in 2023:  Josh Allen from 2020 to 2021 (69.2% to 63.3%) and Derek Carr from 2021 to 2022 (68.4% to 60.8%).

Josh Allen is everyone’s favorite statistical anomaly.  The 69.2% is more of an outlier as his career completion rate over six seasons is 63.2%.  It should also be noted that in 2021 he threw 36 touchdowns, ran for another six, led the team in rushing first downs and took them to the AFC Championship game that year.  All that took most of the sting out of that accuracy drop.

Derek Carr’s drop is more simply explained.  Advocates Jon Gruden and Rich Bisaccia were not brought back in 2022.  Josh McDaniels was hired and there was a big offensive and tonal change and he and Carr never got on the same page.  A parting of ways was best for all involved and Carr was benched to avoid paying his guaranteed money should he be injured and then in the offseason moved on to New Orleans.

Keep in mind, Carr immediately rebounded with the Saints this year, posting a 68.4% completion rate, #3 in the NFL for quarterbacks who started all 17 games.  Also, he has a healthy history of accuracy, with four seasons of throwing for 68% or better.

Does Smith have a running tool or a high-leverage touchdown tool like Allen does to mitigate a drop in completion percentage?  Does he have multiple years of sustained accuracy to earn the benefit of the doubt like Carr has?  Particularly when you add in that he will be entering his age-34 year this fall?

No, he does not.

We need to dive a little deeper into what caused this drop in accuracy.

Decision Making Has Been a Challenge

As I said above, a shorter passing game typically yields a better overall completion rate and better red zone efficiency.

We know that the overall completion rate dropped significantly.  But were there any red zone gains?  No.  The Seahawks only improved from #27 in the NFL last year to #26.  Smith had nine touchdown throws inside of 10 yards last year.  This year?  He projected out to have eleven.  A slight improvement but not what you would expect.  That does make sense when you watch his play in the red zone.  He seems indecisive at times and then rushes throws when the protection breaks down.

Another area to consider is assessing his options after the ball has been hiked.

One point I have consistently mentioned over the course of this season is that Smith has scaled way back on running and scrambling.  His runs dropped from 68 last year to 37 this year, nearly cutting them in half.  He only picked up ten first downs, compared to twenty-four last year.

How important is that?  It tipped the run/pass balance in a very interesting direction.  The Seahawks were the fifth heaviest passing team in the NFL (and therefore the fifth lightest running team) in terms of play selection this year.  It represented a nearly 4% swing towards passing from 2022, on a Pete Carroll-led team no less.

And yet, as you see above, the pass production did not increase proportionally.  Quite the opposite, in fact.

Interestingly, Smith has had nearly the same amount of time in the pocket this year as last year, with 2.4 seconds recorded by Pro Football Reference for both seasons.

With Smith choosing to scramble far less often or take a designed run this year, it is not hard to see why Hurries had such a spike.  PFR defines a hurry as “a situation when the QB is forced to throw the ball earlier than intended or is chased around/out of the pocket as the result of defensive pressure.”

If you do not get rid of the ball quickly and you are not inclined to run, you are going to get Hurried.

And yet, the passing production stats gained by the choice do not justify the sacrifice of not running the ball and picking up those easy yards when they are available.

We have seen and commented on Smith’s lack of crisp decision-making this year many times.  It has shown up in chunks of games – quarters or even halves – resulting in no real movement from the offense.  Games like Week One against the Rams, Week Three against the Panthers, Week Eight against the Browns and Week Twelve against the Forty-Niners showed Smith at times to be hesitant, struggling to progress through his reads and then often throwing into well-covered windows.

While it is positive that he improved in PFF’s Turnover-Worthy Plays, from worst in the NFL last year to “only” the sixth worst.  But it is still a troubling number.

Also, we have witnessed poor decision-making and execution from Smith at key times this season:  Week Two against the Lions (taking a 17-yard sack very late), Week Six against the Bengals (taking too long and being sacked/hit on fourth down in the red zone – twice), Week Eleven against the Rams (the end of game run call that wasted time), and Week Thirteen against the Cowboys (the fourth down throw at Deejay Dallas’ feet that sealed the loss), among others.

While Smith had several late-game drives that tied or won the game for the Seahawks, there are games lost that his mistakes greatly contributed to as well. If the offense cannot consistently build a lead and must rely on desperation drives to get wins, the ‘why not’ of it bears examination as well.

Some Conclusions

Let’s be clear, not every single problem or challenge I commented on above is Smith’s fault through and through.  On the contrary, one of the reasons for the organization parting ways with Pete Carroll is they had become stale and had been unable to correct the situation.

The defense was awful this year.  No doubt some of those game-winners engineered by Smith were necessary because the defense could not get off the field to protect a lead.

The Offensive Line had to be patched together due to severe injury at times.  The numbers show they were not much worse than 2022 in pass protection but the run-blocking was wanting.  The team’s rushers dropped from a robust 4.8 yards per carry last year (good for #5 in the NFL) to a middling 4.1 yards per carry (#17).

Not every play call and resulting bad play was directly on Smith.  The whole team’s lack of preparation is not on him either.

Jason Myers missed a makable field goal try to win that Rams game.

This may feel like a hit piece on Smith, an attempt to run him out of town on a rail to match the fresh start the Seahawks will see in the Personnel and Head Coaching stations.  It is not.

It is simply the cost of leading the team and getting a huge contract.  You must make it work and this year, accomplishing that has been a real struggle for Smith.

I do think a fresh start at General Manager and Head Coach will beget a fresh look at the player at the team’s most important position.

Smith’s late game-winning drives have been well-documented.  I think we are very familiar with the positives that he brings to the table.  This is an attempt to fill out the discussion a bit.  Given what we have discussed, a $31.2 million cap hit does seem like an awful lot to swallow and hope for a rebound season.

Based on what we have discussed and the fact that the organization has undergone big changes, if the Seahawks do decide to make a drastic change this offseason, it should not surprise anyone.

With that said, what options do the Seahawks have with his contract?  There are several.

The Seahawks Have a Multiplicity of Choices

See the chart below for the most logical options the Seahawks have to either make a change to the roster or pick up some salary cap flexibility:

The top line of the chart shows the cap effect of Smith’s contract with no changes.  If the team does nothing, that is how their cap plays out.  That is our baseline.

Note: The numbers underneath the top option are taken from Over The Cap but they do not precisely reflect the site’s cap savings and dead cap numbers.  Why not?  The salary is correctly shown currently as non-guaranteed at this time.

Per Brady Henderson of ESPN, he has confirmed that Smith’s $12.7 million salary for 2024 becomes fully guaranteed five days after the waiver period (The Super Bowl on February 11), so if the Seahawks want to avoid locking that large salary in for 2024, they will need to move quickly and get something done before February 16.

That is our next baseline, a clean shaking of the hands and parting ways and the first option shown.  They will have to eat $17.4 million in dead cap money but they gain a precious $13.8 million in cap room and could resign someone like Drew Lock and spend the rest on other parts of the roster.  The $9.6 million roster bonus comes off the books and vanishes.

An unconventional but possible option would be to take this step, let Smith explore his market and then approach him about coming back.  It is very tricky to pull off but possible given the goodwill the Seahawks have earned with him over the years.

The next three choices involve converting money to a signing bonus and spreading that money into future seasons.  They are very simple operations and in my opinion are the most likely.  It will just be up to the Seahawks to decide how aggressive on the cap they want to be this year.  This is a familiar option for the team, as they utilized it last year with Tyler Lockett, Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams.

— They can convert the $9.6 million Roster Bonus due March 18 to a Signing Bonus and split it in half and gain $4.8 million and push the same amount to 2025 (must be done by March 18)

— They can convert a maximum of $11.05 million of Smith’s $12.7 million 2024 salary into a signing bonus and gain $5.525 million and push the same amount to 2025 (note – this is flexible.  They can convert less if they like.  I just took it all the way down to the minimum 2024 salary for a 7+ year NFL veteran of $1.65 million, which is the most you are allowed)

— They can double-dip and convert both.  They would gain $10.325 million and push the same amount to 2025.

Then we come to the least desirable but potential option:  trading Smith once the League Year starts on March 13 but before the Roster Bonus comes due March 18.  The Seahawks are free to negotiate anytime to trade Smith but it cannot be processed until the new league year starts.  That is what makes it difficult.  A team will be acquiring Smith with a $12.7 million guaranteed salary and then agreeing to pay or convert the $9.6 million signing bonus.  If Smith does not have more than one team seriously interested, the sole team could squeeze the Seahawks right up to that deadline and acquire him for a song.

There is one more choice not listed on the chart we should discuss.

The Path to Renegotiation

From now and proceeding until the all-important February 16 Salary Guarantee Day, the Seahawks have no new guaranteed money on Smith’s contract.  They are only responsible for the $17.4 million of signing bonus money that is left over from the contract he signed last year that needs to be accounted for on the salary cap, and currently it is split in two chunks of $8.7 million, one for 2024 and one for 2025.

There is an opportunity to approach Smith and his agent and negotiate to tear the contract up and rework it and make it beneficial for both sides.  They would only need to account for that $17.4 million from the current contract.  Other than that, they are free to come up with all kinds of options to make it work for both parties.

It would take a negotiator’s touch to get this done, though.  If they approach Smith’s team right now with the idea that they either need to make the salary cap work better, or their analysis indicates that they just cannot afford to play him on a $31.2 million cap hit in 2024, they must have a Plan B in place, ready to go should they desire to walk away before that February 16 deadline.

In that vein, should be noted that teams can negotiate with and sign their own unrestricted free agents like Lock at any time.  They do not have to wait for the new league year to start in March.

This would require some quick work.  Hiring a new Head Coach, getting his input on Smith as well as evaluating the other options via free agency and the draft would call for some late nights and energy drinks.  It can be done though.  How?

First off, as I mentioned, this contract was agreed to with the idea that it would be reworked at some point along the line.  It would be negligent for either side to claim they are being blindsided and express surprise that the other party would like to go back to the table.

Just as a theoretical exercise, let’s flip the scenario to Smith’s advantage.  Imagine Smith had hit every single escalator target this year and claimed his $15 million prize.  The Seahawks would have a massive $46 million cap number for him in 2024.  The chance they would ride with that huge number – especially given their other cap space constraints – is very slim.  They would contact him in good faith and try to both reward his fantastic play and give them some cap relief.  The same would also be true if Smith failed to deliver a good season.  Which is far closer to what happened in 2023.  And that is fine for $10 million in cap dollars.  But is it fine for over triple that amount?  That is the crux of the matter.

Secondly, hiring a new Head Coach does not reset the entire organization and roster to where John Schneider would all the sudden need to start fresh with a lot of homework to do in evaluating Smith’s 2023 season.  He has already done that, has a firm grasp on where the team and the organization stand.  In Head Coaching interviews, both sides would want the Seahawks’ quarterback situation to be very high on the list of interview topics.  If the team makes a Head Coaching hire without being in lock-step on the quarterback currently on the roster… let’s just say that will not happen.

What will happen to Smith and his contract and cap number?  I do not know.  The Seahawks themselves probably do not know for sure.  It is too early in the process to really know.  One thing that feels certain though — some kind of change will come to the quarterback room, the salary cap, or both, for the Seahawks in 2024.

Note from Rob — big thank you to Curtis for this thorough, engaging analysis of Geno’s contract. I’ve also done a video today discussing my top-three candidates to replace Pete Carroll. You can watch it below and be sure to subscribe to my YouTube channel so you never miss a video:

 

It felt like there were a lot of ‘easter eggs’ in John Schneider’s press conference this week. After all, this isn’t a draft. Deception isn’t necessary. You’re not going to blurt out you’re preferred candidate but neither do you have to go overboard trying to conceal your intentions.

The extent to which Schneider talked about the issue of losing a successful offensive coordinator felt like an obvious tell that, if nothing else, they were conscious of this very real problem in the modern NFL. You only have to see from the total lack of buzz surrounding Jim Schwartz, Brian Flores, Steve Spagnuolo and others. The league wants offense. If you hire an offensive coach and nail the defensive coordinator position, you are far more likely to keep your staff together.

I suspect this will be emphasised even further if/when Raheem Morris, Ejiro Eviro, Patrick Graham and maybe even Dan Quinn don’t get Head Coaching offers, while the offensive-minded guys are preferred. We’ll see what happens.

The other thing I think might be more telling than anyone first thought was the point Schneider made about being in charge of hiring the coaches. Initially I thought he might be making an ‘it wasn’t me, ‘guv, honest‘ type gesture — trying to distance himself from the inglorious appointments of Ken Norton Jr, Clint Hurtt and others. I now want to bring another angle to the table. What if it’s a hint that he’s the one doing due diligence behind the scenes to create a staff?

This wouldn’t be necessary if he was going to hire Dan Quinn or Mike Vrabel. They’ll have ready-made staffs. Quinn in particular will have been working on a plan for a long time. If he was going to take a chance on a relative newcomer though, without a rich contacts list, Schneider would presumably need to assist.

Bobby Slowik was not a household name 12 months ago. His work with Houston has elevated him into the spotlight. It’s been such a meteoric rise, most people don’t know that a few years ago he was working for PFF as an analyst — appearing on podcasts discussing the NFL with Zac Robinson (now working with the Rams).

His work with the Texans has been so impressive — helping turn C.J. Stroud into a rookie revelation and making a cast of receivers and tight ends highly effective in one of the surprise stories of the season. Despite all of the legit concerns about a lack of experience, it’s impossible not to look at the way he was scheming targets open (brilliantly highlighted by Josh Norris here, here, here and here) and wonder — maybe this guy is legit? Maybe we’re seeing the start of something special? Perhaps all of the concerns about his inexperience deserve to go in the same place as the concerns people had about Sean McVay when he took over the Rams?

We’re living in a new world. The NFL has changed, as Schneider acknowledged on Tuesday. The game will always be about winning in the trenches and every team, at least for me, should set out to build greatness up front, find a quarterback and then — as the third most important aspect — find ways to challenge your opponent schematically. The modern way to do this is to use deception and misdirection to create wide-open targets and exploit weaknesses (we’ve seen Shanahan and McVay attack Seattle this way for a long time).

Slowik is showing he understands this and is very good at it. Couple that with his background of being around Kyle Shanahan and McVay, plus the fact he speaks incredibly well for such an inexperienced coach, and maybe he is the real deal?

Doesn’t this seem like an old head on young shoulders?

Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik on head coach DeMeco Ryans’ leadership.

“You just can tell the kind of person he is, how infectious his attitude is.” https://t.co/WKxGb1HESs pic.twitter.com/0mLaLdsGny

— SportsRadio 610 (@SportsRadio610) January 13, 2024

If you need a glowing reference from anyone, how about Kyle Shanahan?

“Bobby was as talented as anyone I’ve ever worked with,” Shanahan said. “I didn’t want to lose him at all. DeMeco knew that he was special. DeMeco and he had a close bond together because they both were [quality control coaches].”

Let’s just repeat those first two sentences: “Bobby was as talented as anyone I’ve ever worked with. DeMeco knew that he was special.”

I could write down about five different scenarios for what the Seahawks are going to do and make a compelling case for each. One of those scenarios, without a doubt, would be Schneider taking the plunge on someone like Slowik. Shooting for greatness, rather than settling on a new coach. The man who craved gunslingers like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen in the draft, when he already had Russell Wilson, doesn’t feel like a conservative coach-picker to me.

Perhaps that comment about having control over the coaching staff is indicative? Maybe the Seahawks intend to go after someone like Slowik and part of Schneider’s plan will be to use his own extensive contacts to land the defensive coordinator who can greatly improve an underperforming unit? To go and get the wise old head, in whatever capacity that might be, to act as a sounding-board for Slowik in his first big gig?

It feels brash, confident, aggressive. It feels like a John Schneider move.

Plus if he intends to draft a quarterback sooner rather than later, why not go for the man who has done as much as anyone to elevate the play of a young signal-caller this season?

And as we’ve discussed — while all of the candidates they’re talking to are worthy in their own right to be interviewed for the main role, there are some coaches who might be available down the line. A year ago, Ejiro Evero was offered the chance to stay in Denver as defensive coordinator or move on, once Sean Payton was hired. He chose to go to Carolina. Now they’re hiring a new staff. Will the Panthers similarly allow him to depart if he wishes? Could the Seahawks create enough of an impression to team him with Slowik, perhaps as ‘Assistant Head Coach/defensive coordinator’?

It’d be totally different to what the Seahawks had under Carroll. That does feel important. It’s time for a new vision, new ideas and new personnel — not clinging to the past and trying to copy what happened before.

I mean, look at what 49ers writers are saying on their websites:

Good news for the 49ers: If the Seahawks hire Dann Quinn.

Bad news for the 49ers: If the Seahawks hire Bobby Slowik.

If Ben Johnson really does have his heart set on Washington (as appears to be the case), Slowik could be the ideal alternative.

Assuming the Texans don’t upset the Ravens this weekend, the Seahawks would be allowed to meet with Slowik in person next week. The process will ramp up over the next seven days, with the only potential delay being the possibility of other candidates remaining in the final four. If these games go as expected, that would only leave Detroit’s Johnson unless the Seahawks do want to speak to Baltimore’s Mike Macdonald (so far, he hasn’t had a reported interview request).

If one of the worst kept secrets in football of Johnson to Washington is legit — and if Houston loses this weekend — the Seahawks won’t have any limitations in place in terms of speaking to the candidates they seem to have identified for the role. It’s not impossible that this time next week we might know who Seattle’s new Head Coach is.

Finally — I was invited on to Dan Viens’ show today to talk about the Seahawks’ coaching situation. Check it out below:

One of the things we’ve done this week is discuss and project the direction the Seahawks might take under John Schneider. His press conference was interesting and revealing for a number of reasons. He admitted the need to be conscious of modern NFL trends and he reiterated the concern over losing successful offensive coordinators, among other topics.

Listening to Schneider speak, it felt very much like things were heading in the direction of the Seahawks appointing an offensive play-caller to lead their team. However, I want to present an important alternative view — just to give you something to consider.

Ron Wolf is John’s self-confessed mentor. Schneider even said during his press conference he’d spent considerable time talking to Wolf on Friday.

Is there anything to learn from Wolf’s approach to football that perhaps inspired those around him?

I reached out to someone who knows Wolf and asked about his philosophies. This is what I was told about Wolf’s approach — build your trenches, the draft is your life-line and when it comes to Head Coaches, you want a father figure. You want, in the words of the source, ‘a tough SOB’. Someone very capable of standing up in front of the guys and leading.

Having specific offensive or defensive-minded leadership was never mentioned.

The game has changed a lot over the last 30 years and Schneider, as we mentioned, referred to being across those changes when he spoke on Tuesday. Listen to any former players or coaches speak in the media and they all talk about the challenge of leading modern-day players. They are different. They expect to be treated differently. These are things you have to consider and it’s arguably why a growing line of Bill Belichick’s coaching tree haven’t succeeded.

Frankly, it wouldn’t be surprising if this is the kind of thing Schneider is talking about when he speaks about being mindful of the direction of the league. Yet there are still ‘tough SOB’s’ coaching in the league and having success. Dan Campbell, DeMeco Ryans, John Harbaugh. Not everyone has to be quoting rap songs and cracking jokes like Mike McDaniel. There is a way of adapting an old-school style, if you want to call it that, for the modern game.

Wolf hired three coaches — Mike Holmgren, Ray Rhodes and Mike Sherman. Two offensive guys, one defensive.

The point I’m trying to make here is — I wouldn’t read too much into the way Green Bay have ended up appointing offensive coaches over the years, working with a big-name quarterback. I’ve referenced that myself a few times. I’m not sure it’s actually that relevant.

If we’re going to consider anything from Green Bay and the Ron Wolf era — it actually points more towards the Mike Vrabel and Dan Quinn style of coach, or any of the younger guys who might similarly fit the bill.

Another thing I did learn in my conversations this week — there’s real clarity on how the game has changed — with an increase in spread concepts, deception, creating mismatches. In return, defensive football has adjusted more towards speed and quickness instead of size. Even so, it was spelt out to me that irrespective of all that — if you can’t run the ball or stop the run with your play in the trenches, you won’t succeed. That remains a significant thought process within the NFL, even if it isn’t popular online.

Kyle Shanahan loves to run the ball and takes it very seriously. Look what’s happening in Detroit. The 49ers have the third lowest opponent rushing yards per game this season and the Lions are second. San Francisco has the third best running attack, the Lions are sixth. The way it was put to me was — you might be throwing more these days to set up the run (rather than the other way around) but at some point, typically playoff time, you’re going to need to be able to run the ball and stop the run.

None of this is that revelatory but it was interesting to hear it from someone inside the league. Running the ball and defending the run are two things the Seahawks don’t do well. That is going to have to change, irrespective of the type of coach they appoint.

That person could be the man currently running Detroit’s #6 ranked run offense. Ben Johnson fits the modern day profile for a Head Coach but he’s also been around Dan Campbell and he’s delivered a physical, productive run game.

It also might not be him, even if they would like it to be. Here’s the latest piece of evidence. There was already plenty of chatter, per Mike Garafolo, that Johnson and new Commanders GM Adam Peters had talked about hooking up. Johnson was asked about Peters at his press conference today. When he said, “I’ve heard nothing but fantastic things about (Peters)” — with a ton of emphasis on ‘fantastic’ — it made it seem like the writing is on the wall:

Lions OC Ben Johnson was asked if he knows much about new Commanders GM Adam Peters pic.twitter.com/HMzaWhqauM

— Nicki Jhabvala (@NickiJhabvala) January 18, 2024

Garofolo mentioned on KJR today that, despite saying in this clip that he’s ‘looking forward to meeting him’, they’ve already met. He also said that Johnson’s preference is to ‘go somewhere and build it from the ground up’ — drafting a quarterback early and all of that. Everything points to Washington for Ben Johnson. This is a lot of smoke and I think it’s near a big old fire, although Ian Rapoport says Johnson will speak to the Seahawks on Saturday.

If Johnson ultimately proves to be a non-starter for Seattle, I’d just keep in mind the likes of Vrabel and Quinn. If Schneider’s mentor was big on leadership, toughness and being a father figure to his players — they both fit that mould.

Garafolo mentioned Scott Fitterer will give Ejiro Evero a glowing reference after the pair worked in Carolina. It’s also worth noting that long-time former Green Bay defensive coordinator Dom Capers, who Schneider will be familiar with, has worked closely alongside Eviro for the last two years in Denver and Carolina. Garafolo says he has a punchers chance at the job.

He also had some interesting things to say about Vrabel — suggesting he’s very different to Pete Carroll and if they want to maintain the positive vibe in the facility from the Carroll era, his appointment would create a sea change. He says Vrabel’s famous public reaction to the A.J. Brown trade would be typical of his reaction to things he disagreed with.

On the contrary, it’s also worth pointing out again that Adam Schefter said this week that Schneider and Vrabel have a ‘great’ relationship. Schefter has today reported the Seahawks want to meet with Vrabel about the job.

What does it all mean? It’s hard to decipher. I sense for the next two or three weeks we’ll be tying ourselves in knots trying to parse every report and statement. Meanwhile the Seahawks will likely go through the process properly and simply appoint whoever impresses them the most.

A couple of days ago we noted the sudden buzz surrounding Mike Vrabel and the Seahawks. In an appearance on the Dan Patrick show, Adam Schefter revealed John Schneider and Vrabel had ‘a great relationship’. Peter King connected Vrabel to Seattle saying it would ‘make sense’. Gregg Bell did a piece projecting betting odds, putting Vrabel as the 3/1 favourite for the gig.

It all came out of the blue on the same day. Now we have a new report on the same topic. ESPN’s Dan Graziano played matchmaker with all of the teams looking to hire a Head Coach. He paired Seattle with Vrabel:

I know, he hasn’t even shown up on the Seahawks’ interview list yet. And sure, Quinn has a connection to Seattle from his time as its defensive coordinator under Carroll. The Vrabel thing is a bit of a hunch, though I do have several sources who share the same hunch and the idea that he could be a sneaky late entry into this pool.

It’s almost certainly a coincidence that the Carroll news broke the day after the news that the Titans had fired Vrabel. But it’s also possible that the opportunity the current high-level candidate list offers is part of the reason Seattle decided now was the time to make a change.

There’s not a lot of meat on the bone here. Graziano simply refers to sources sharing a hunch. Yet it’s a hunch that is starting to do the rounds through various reporters.

So what’s going on?

Firstly, I think this could be partly instigated by the Vrabel camp. Everyone expected he would go back to New England but they appointed Jared Mayo instead. With the Chargers seemingly set on Jim Harbaugh, the Raiders with Antonio Pierce and the Falcons — short of any movement from Dallas to remove Mike McCarthy — positioning to hire Bill Belichick, there aren’t that many alternatives for Vrabel.

He’s been around Adam Peters the new Washington GM before, because Peters worked for the Patriots when Vrabel played in New England. However, as we’ve been saying, the word on the street is Peters has been communicating with Ben Johnson to team up. The hot candidate in this hiring cycle, Johnson appears destined for Washington unless things change.

Having just left the Titans and with the only other open gig in Carolina, it’s possible Vrabel looks at the coaching landscape and sees the Seahawks as his best and possibly only realistic option to jump straight back in. It wouldn’t be unheard of for a few well placed calls to go in by an agent, generating a little media buzz around Vrabel and the Seahawks. It can’t do any harm because at the moment, nobody’s talking about him. It feels like he needs his name out there at a time when Johnson, Bobby Slowik, Mike Macdonald and others are getting most of the attention.

That’s not to say there’s nothing in this link. Such an appointment would make a lot of sense for the Seahawks. Vrabel is highly rated and had a lot of success in Tennessee initially.

It’s worth noting again all that he achieved. He led the Titans to the AFC Championship game in his second season, beating the Patriots and Ravens on the road (ending the Brady/Belichick era in the process) before losing to eventual Champions Kansas City. He followed that up by going 23-10 in the next two seasons, although they lost close playoff games to Baltimore and Cincinnati. He won coach of the year in 2021.

Things were really motoring at this stage but then GM Jon Robinson shockingly traded A.J. Brown during the 2022 draft. It was a calamitous error, preferring a cheap rookie (Treylon Burks) instead of paying Brown. Vrabel’s disbelieving reaction was captured on camera once the plan was enacted.

That was the beginning of the end for the Titans under Vrabel. They started 7-3 in 2022 but after dropping two games to Cincinnati and Philadelphia, Robinson was fired. They ended the season on a seven-game losing streak. That run included four games where they lost by four points or less. You have to wonder what would’ve happened with Brown still on the roster.

Quarterback Ryan Tannehill and running back Derrick Henry both aged and talk about their futures was persistent. It created a weird dynamic. The Titans under Robinson drafted Malik Willis to plan for life after Tannehill. Interim GM Ryan Cowden actually set up the team for the 2023 draft, where they selected another quarterback in Will Levis. The situation became quite muddled, especially when they chose Ron Carthon to replace Cowden in the hot-seat. They’ve had three decision makers running the roster in three years.

Jumping between QB’s plus constant chatter about Henry’s future, not to mention a host of injuries to the defense, meant the Titans finished Vrabel’s final season 6-11. Yet you can legitimately challenge how much responsibility he has for that, especially given the way his team continued to fight until the bitter end — preventing Jacksonville from winning the AFC South with a hard-nosed victory in week 18. They also had the #1 red zone defense in the league this season and the #18 ranked defense despite all of the injuries. They punched the Seahawks in the mouth on Christmas Eve and nearly won, despite missing half of their roster.

For Seattle he’d be a ready-made Head Coach, working with a far more settled front office unlikely to pull any shock moves like the Brown trade. If he can get the Titans to the AFC Championship without a lot of stars other than Henry and Brown, you wonder what he could do with more talent at his disposal.

It’s also important to note what kind of coach Vrabel is. He’s described as defensive-minded but he is to the extent Dan Campbell is offensive-minded. Both coaches are figurehead types. Both are highly aggressive, focus a lot on situational football and pay attention to analytics.

As with Campbell, the staff appointments are critical. In Detroit, Campbell had the 29th ranked offense (per DVOA) under Anthony Lynn. After switching to Ben Johnson, their offense has been ranking in the top-10 (#5 this year).

Vrabel’s first offensive coordinator hire in Tennessee was Matt LaFleur, as he looked to tap into the Sean McVay tree. With hindsight it was an inspired decision as LaFleur has done well in Green Bay. It also spoke to Vrabel being open-minded about offensive trends.

LaFleur didn’t have a successful year as the team went 9-7. The Titans lost Marcus Mariota to injury, Delanie Walker missed virtually the entire season and the O-line was banged up. They finished 25th in DVOA for offense. Despite that, he was still hired by the Packers after just one season as an offensive coordinator.

He was replaced by Arthur Smith, who helped craft the AFC Championship run in 2019, then led the #5 offense (per DVOA) in the NFL in 2020. He might be a bit of a figure of fun currently, given how things ended in Atlanta — yet when he was hired by the Falcons, he was seen as one of the hot coaching candidates in the NFL. Smith’s departure was met with widespread disappointment in Tennessee.

After going 2/2 with his hires, Vrabel then couldn’t repeat the act. His third offensive coordinator, Todd Downing, was fired after two seasons. Tim Kelly took over in 2023. Again though, this also coincided with losing Brown and Henry going from ‘superhero’ to at least a more mortal version of a brilliant running back. Ryan Tannehill only played in 12 games in 2022 due to injury — with Joshua Dobbs and the rookie Willis filling in. This year they broke in another rookie in Levis. Great offensive output shouldn’t have been expected, especially with constant injuries to the offensive line.

The two big takeaways here are — Vrabel has shown an ability to get these hires right initially in his time at Tennessee which is encouraging. However, John Schneider specifically mentioned yesterday the problem with successful offensive play-callers being poached. That happened to Vrabel twice. You can’t keep replacing OC’s and retain success, even if the Brown trade made life tricky for Downing and Kelly.

That line on coordinators was quite telling from Schneider yesterday and one of my main takeaways from the press conference, as noted in my reaction piece, was the feeling he’s focused on a young, offensive-minded coach in tune with the modern NFL. I’d guess that’s what Jody Allen and Bert Kolde want too, even if everyone’s open-minded to alternatives.

When Schneider was asked directly if he had any input on the decision to part with Carroll, he refrained from answering apart from to say Carroll knew his opinion on where they needed to improve, as did ownership. My impression is Carroll wanted to ‘run things back’, retaining most of the personnel, philosophy and coaching. Schneider, I’d suggest, favoured a different approach featuring bigger personnel and philosophical changes including the drafting of a quarterback in the near future — a view I think ownership shares. That would mean pairing your offensive coach with a new quarterback as has been the modus operandi in Green Bay for decades.

Schneider also admitted they’re having to compete for candidates, which to me means Ben Johnson, the coach Mike Garafolo recently called ‘the belle of the ball’ in this cycle. He ticks every box and, to me at least, is the obvious person to make the #1 target. If Johnson is truly destined for Washington, what are the other options? Is Bobby Slowik ready for a top job if they want a young offensive mind?

The Seahawks, quite rightly, are going through a process. They are right to interview a large number of candidates. Picking the brains of different coaches from different teams and schemes is what they should do. Yet they’ll likely have a ‘name’ or ‘names’ at the top of their long list.

If they are competing for Johnson and miss out, there’s a situation where someone like Vrabel could become extremely appealing. He’s been there, done it. I think it’d be an easy hire to sell to fans.

Further to that, the coordinator he had most success with — Arthur Smith — is available. He’s also unlikely to be poached any time soon after failing in Atlanta. So there’s an opportunity to create a water-tight staff where there are no concerns about your offensive play-caller being poached. If Smith recreates the success he had with Vrabel in Tennessee, nobody will be complaining.

Therefore, I think Vrabel should be considered a dark horse for this job. Perhaps, you could say, Plan B. However, I still think Schneider’s words point towards a plan to go with a young, innovative offensive coach and the top candidate who fits that bill is Ben Johnson. If they compete for him and lose out, and if they think Bobby Slowik is a bit too green, it’s plausible they could pivot to the established Vrabel.

It was an unusual sight to see John Schneider alone at the podium, with no Pete Carroll flanking him. Prior to the introduction of a pre-draft weekly radio show on Seattle Sports a year ago, Schneider’s media appearances have been rare over the last 14 years.

This felt like the official beginning of a new era — and Schneider delivered some intriguing nuggets about the past, present and future. A huge, franchise-changing decisions has been made. It’s only right the man now in charge faces the media. I thought this was an impressive and necessary press conference.

The word ‘stagnant’ was used quite early on. A journalist picked up on this and followed it up. Schneider was careful to say he wasn’t referring to Carroll’s team but it felt like a Freudian slip, especially given he went on talk about Marty Schottenheimer telling him a coach can’t stay somewhere longer than 10 years.

Even though Schneider and Carroll were clearly close and enjoyed a healthy working relationship, you get the impression he was ready for this opportunity. ‘Stagnant’ is exactly the word I’d use to describe recent seasons. The Seahawks weren’t going anywhere. It was time for change.

Schneider was honest about the team, admitting they perhaps overachieved in 2022 but underachieved in 2023. He stated he’d had no say in any coaching appointments since 2010 — an encouraging comment if you’re worried the next Head Coach is going to be an encore to the Ken Norton, Clint Hurtt and other underwhelming coordinator hires under Carroll.

Schneider offered the pitch he’ll be making to prospective coaches as he competes for their services — this is a young team with a great core, filled with talent. He said he feels they are ready to compete now. That’s something many other teams in the hiring cycle cannot say.

He revealed he’s had a list of prospective coaches for some time, admitting he’d been on guard for Carroll retiring. Schneider told a story about how Carroll had once said he was ‘going to change the world’ and he interpreted that as he might call it a day. It speaks to the recent reports from Ian Rapoport and Mike Garafolo that the idea of Carroll quitting has lingered for some time. After all, Jay Glazer reported in 2017 he was considering it — and that’s why we’ve always been open-minded about the possibility.

Schneider’s comments on Geno Smith were fascinating. He was asked to review his 2023 performance. He noted it was a reverse of last year, where he started well and faded. This year he had a difficult start and improved. It was a short and to the point answer. Certainly there was no commitment to Smith or any effusive praise. He could’ve easily said something like, ‘he’s our guy’ like Carroll occasionally did. It suggests Schneider might be plotting a new direction at quarterback as soon as this year. If nothing else, this answer felt like it confirmed Smith’s ‘bridge’ status at best.

He noted Ron Wolf as being a mentor. We’ve all known for a while that the two were close and Schneider said he’d spent a lot of time speaking to Wolf on Friday. We highlighted Wolf’s coaching appointment record last week — Mike Holmgren, a year of Ray Rhodes and then Mike Sherman. Rhodes was a defensive coach who was fired after one underwhelming 8-8 season. I’m going to dig into Wolf as a decision maker this week.

I thought the comment about needing to compete with other teams was a highlight. I don’t think this was just some buzz word used to describe the situation. I think this means the Seahawks have their eye on key targets they know are interesting other teams and they want to make sure they don’t miss out. That was encouraging and I think it was a hint that the most popular names in the cycle are probably the names the Seahawks are most focused on.

Schneider dropped a big hint about his thought-process, noting he was conscious of ‘where the league is’ in 2024 in a clear reference to current trends. We all know what that is — offensive-focused football. He also referred to Alex Smith’s experience coming into the league, where he ended up having to work with three different offensive coordinators in three years, something that Schneider felt impacted his career greatly.

He followed that answer up when talking about the philosophy of going with an offensive, defensive or special teams coach. He spoke very openly about the challenge of losing an offensive coordinator if they succeed. I don’t think Schneider was spelling it out that the Seahawks are going to hire an offensive-minded Head Coach but it suggests he’s conscious of the potential issue if you don’t. Or, that if he does go with a defensive-minded guy, they need to have a proper plan in place.

Mike McCarthy’s name was mentioned a lot but I wouldn’t read too much into that. As Jeff Simmons mentioned on our stream today (watch it below if you missed it, there’s a ton of info), Schneider apparently introduced McCarthy to his wife and the pair are very close. Schneider was heavily involved in McCarthy’s hiring in Green Bay, so it’s unsurprising he would refer back to it. It doesn’t mean McCarthy is destined for Seattle if he loses his job in Dallas.

Meanwhile, it’s been revealed today that the Seahawks have requested interviews with Ben Johnson and Bobby Slowik to go with the other candidates we reviewed in detail yesterday.

I want to share some takeaways from the press conference and thoughts about what I believe the Seahawks are thinking:

— I think Schneider’s preference is to land an offensive-minded Head Coach. I also think he’s itching to draft a quarterback to create a duo for the future. The Seahawks have a cluster of exciting weapons on offense, that is their strength, and I think they will lean into it for their identity. That’s been the Green Bay way of doing things and that’s Schneider’s DNA.

— For that reason, I do think Ben Johnson could be a prime target. As I noted in my piece last week, Johnson has had success with a lot of similar pieces to the ones they currently have in Seattle. He’s highly intelligent, innovative, aggressive and young. He wouldn’t be expecting any big sway in personnel and would give the Seahawks an opportunity to be productive quickly next season, building towards something more than merely competing. This kind of hire would speak to Schneider’s note that they’re conscious of the way the league is going. It would also give them an opportunity to avoid any concern about losing the play-caller/quarterback bond.

— I think Schneider knows that virtually every other team would also love to hire Johnson and that he’s in for a fight — especially with the Commanders. Aside from the reported hook-up between Washington’s new GM Adam Peters and Johnson, it’s believed Johnson’s preference is to live in the North East. The Commanders own the #2 pick which is a prime spot to draft a quarterback. Plus the new owners in Washington are well placed to throw money at a big salary. The Seahawks, if they want Johnson, will need to sell their superior facility, stadium, roster, culture and the beauty of the PNW. The feeling is Johnson is destined for the capital and the Seahawks might already be fighting a losing battle — but they have their interview request in so we’ll see.

— People always mention Detroit’s O-line when Johnson’s name comes up. It’s a fair point. It’s also worth noting how they created it. Taylor Decker was a #16 pick (the Seahawks own the #16 pick this year), Jonah Jackson was a third rounder, Frank Ragnow was a #20 pick, Graham Glasgow was a free agent and earns $2.75m a year (less than Phil Haynes) and Penei Sewell was a #7 pick. The Seahawks have already used a top-10 pick on a tackle. They can create a line like Detroit’s as long as they’re prepared to invest in a center and make wise decisions in the draft and free agency. The Lions’ haven’t done anything that dramatic or challenging. This isn’t impossible.

— If you can’t land Johnson, Bobby Slowik would be a good consolation prize — provided you can put a staff together to work with him. That’ll be the issue for Slowik and Mike Macdonald, two of the less experienced coaches in the cycle. It might be why the likes of Mike Vrabel and Dan Quinn ultimately carry high appeal with their contacts and experience.

— I think all of the candidates the Seahawks are speaking to are well worth interviewing. They’re talented, they’ve been successful and they have diverse backgrounds and skillsets. This is a rare opportunity to pick the brains of numerous individuals coaching for different teams. It’s an information-gathering process as much as anything. Many of us wanted an extensive search, not a mere coronation for one chosen coach. That is what’s happening.

— I do think in the case of Ejiro Eviro, Mike Kafka and Patrick Graham, it could be a double-edged opportunity. Eviro, a very highly rated defensive coordinator, might not stay with the Panthers when they appoint their new Head Coach. Likewise for Graham, another highly respected DC, when the Raiders make their decision. Meanwhile, things are so toxic in New York you wonder if Kafka could be lured away with a pseudo-promotion to ‘assistant Head coach’ if the Seahawks appoint a defensive leader. It’s not unheard of for teams to interview candidates, go in a different direction, then circle back with coordinator offers.

— Schneider’s fears over losing an offensive coordinator don’t necessarily mean he’s definitely going to appoint an offensive-minded Head Coach. He might simply be aware of the need for a plan. For example, if he appoints Mike Vrabel — who Jeff Simmons said in our stream ‘wants’ the Seahawks job — there’s a chance he’ll bring Arthur Smith with him to run the offense. After his stint in Atlanta, Smith is unlikely to be poached by any teams in the coming years. I appreciate nobody will be enthused about Smith as a play-caller. It’s worth remembering, though, that Tennessee had the #5 ranked offense in the league under Smith and that’s why he got the Falcons job in the first place.

— I think Vrabel is a candidate worth considering. His reputation is excellent within the league. He led the Titans to the AFC Championship, then had 23 wins in the next two seasons. Things went south after the former GM Jon Robinson traded away AJ Brown, something Vrabel wasn’t in favour of. Plus there was the unavoidable ageing of Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry. Despite this, the Titans remained competitive and that was emphasised by the gut-punch they gave Jacksonville in week 18, preventing the Jaguars from winning the AFC South when they had nothing to play for. He’s a good situational coach with an aggressive mindset in terms of playcalling. He’s a figurehead similar to Dan Campbell and two of his offensive coordinators — Matt LaFleur and Arthur Smith — were hired away. So he can build a staff.

— A final, very important point to finish. A few people have messaged me saying the Seahawks need to appoint a defensive-minded Head Coach because the defense is the thing that needs fixing. Did you know, per DVOA, that eight of the top thirteen ranked defensive teams don’t have a defensive-minded Head Coach? This isn’t just San Francisco (Bosa), Dallas (Parsons) and Cleveland (Garrett) relying on blue-chip studs either. It’s Kansas City, Minnesota, Jacksonville and Detroit. The Seahawks don’t need a defensive leader to improve their defense from the 28th placed ranking they currently have. DVOA makes that clear. If they can get the defensive coordinator position right, they can enjoy long-lasting success. After all, how many interview requests are Jim Schwartz, Brian Flores and Steve Spagnuolo getting? Because the league is so tilted to offense these days, if you hit a home-run, you’re unlikely to lose your DC. The same cannot be said for your offensive play-caller, which is why many teams now prefer to make that person their Head Coach to avoid losing them.

If you missed today’s stream with Jeff Simmons, I’d highly recommend checking it out. There’s a ton of information and reasoned conversation:

In this stream we’ll be discussing John Schneider’s press conference today, the candidates who are going to be interviewed, the intriguing Mike Vrabel connection and more. Also, there’s some fresh news today with the report that the Seahawks have requested an interview with Ben Johnson, who I wrote about here. They’ve also reportedly requested an interview with Bobby Slowik.

Join us at 2pm…

Following a week of taking stock, reports are revealing who the Seahawks want to speak to about replacing Pete Carroll.

They’ve requested interviews with the following:

Frank Smith (OC, Miami)
Dan Quinn (DC, Dallas)
Ejiro Eviro (DC, Carolina)
Raheem Morris (DC, LA Rams)
Mike Kafka (OC, NY Giants)
Patrick Graham (DC, Las Vegas)

If any new names are reported I’ll add them to the list and update my thoughts below.

Frank Smith (OC, Miami)

He isn’t from the Kyle Shanahan tree even though he joined up with Mike McDaniel in Miami. He spent a number of years acting as an assistant O-line coach under Sean Payton in New Orleans. He was then a tight ends coach for the Raiders and Chargers for four years and his final official job in LA was run-game coordinator and O-line coach. He hasn’t been calling plays for the Dolphins, whose offense started brilliantly this season before tailing off badly at the end. Per DVOA, their offense finished the year ranked #2 in the league. He was recently ranked first in a poll of 1700 players listing the best offensive coordinators in the league. Smith has a reputation for being a supportive coach and was credited with aiding Darren Waller with his sobriety, with Waller stating: “Frank is my favorite coach I’ve ever had.”

Dan Quinn (DC, Dallas)
I spoke a lot about Quinn yesterday so check out that article. His defenses have consistently ranked in the top-five during his time in Dallas but there are issues too. Firstly, the Cowboys have had a lot of success beating up weaker teams/quarterbacks with a schedule ranking 30th in the league this year. Against top opponents, they’ve faired poorly. Yesterday against Green Bay (48-32) was the latest example, to go with crushing losses to the likes of San Francisco (42-10) and Buffalo (31-10). Nevertheless, the expectation is he will be able to build a strong staff and his communication skills are said to be excellent.

Ejiro Eviro (DC, Carolina)
A Sean McVay coach for years looking after the Rams’ secondary, Eviro was highly rated when he made the move to Denver to become the Broncos’ defensive coordinator in 2022. As we know, things went badly and Nathaniel Hackett was quickly fired. Eviro, though, still produced the #13 defense in the league. He was released from his contract after Sean Payton’s arrival and joined the Panthers, who similarly were a hot-mess this year. In difficult circumstances, Carolina had the 25th ranked defense per DVOA. He runs a 3-4 base according to reports. For the last two years he has paired himself with Dom Capers, in both Denver and Carolina, the long-time Green Bay Packers defensive coordinator. Without a doubt, John Schneider will have contacted Capers to talk about Eviro. The pair worked closely together in Green Bay, as Schneider has occasionally noted.

Raheem Morris (DC, LA Rams)
An extremely likeable, energetic personality radiates from Morris and he’s said to be well liked. He became the youngest Head Coach in the league aged 32 when he took the Buccaneers job in 2009, going 3-13, 10-6 and 4-12 before being fired. He then worked with Dan Quinn in Atlanta, replacing him as interim Head Coach when Quinn was departed, going 4-7. He’s been the Rams’ defensive coordinator since 2021 — helping them win a Super Bowl in his first season. His defenses have ranked 3rd, 18th and 22nd per DVOA. These aren’t great rankings given they have Aaron Donald, although they have lost talent as time has gone on.

Mike Kafka (OC, NY Giants)
A fourth round pick in 2010, Kafka had a nomadic playing career as a backup quarterback before eventually turning to coaching. He started with his alma mater, Northwestern, before Andy Reid brought him to Kansas City. Reid was the coach of the Eagles when Kafka was drafted so they had a connection. He rose up the ranks with the Chiefs — starting as a quality control coach before moving on to become Patrick Mahomes’ QB coach and then adding passing-game coordinator duties. He was long touted to replace Eric Bieniemy as offensive coordinator in KC, only Bieniemy couldn’t get a Head Coaching opportunity. Thus, eventually he took the Giants coordinator’s job in 2022 (ironically, if he’d waited 12 months, he would’ve had the Chiefs gig). Kafka worked with Brian Daboll in New England as a player, so was again reuniting with a former coach. Daboll let him call plays, likely a term of the deal to get him to New York. The Giants had the #16 offense last year as they made the playoffs but a series of injuries and struggles this year saw them become ultra-conservative and sink to 30th. Once considered one of the hot up-and-coming coaches in football, Kafka isn’t the most charismatic public speaker but Reid and Daboll certainly saw something in him and he’s been credited as a big help in Mahomes’ career.

Patrick Graham (DC, Las Vegas)
Graham played his football at Yale, went undrafted and then embarked on a coaching career. He spent six years with the New England Patriots, mostly as a linebackers or defensive line coach. He then started to move around a bit — spending two years with the Giants coaching D-line, a year with the Packers coordinating the run defense, he spent a year with the Dolphins in 2019 as the defensive coordinator, followed by two more years with the Giants as an assistant Head Coach and defensive coordinator. Finally, he spent the last two seasons as DC with the Raiders. Clearly his roots are in the Belichick system. The Raiders had the #8 ranked defense per DVOA this season (they were 29th last year under his stewardship). Maxx Crosby has spoken glowingly of his relationship with Graham.

None of these coaches are in the playoffs, currently. That could be deliberate from the Seahawks, for two reasons. It might be common courtesy to those coaches who are focusing on big games. There’s nothing wrong with registering an interest and saying ‘we’ll circle back at an appropriate time’. They might respect that. Also, you can spend more time with these individuals now rather than rushing through a Zoom call with, say, Ben Johnson, Mike Macdonald or Ben Slowik, before they get to playoff prep.

This feels like the beginning of a process, which will likely go on for some time. Names will be added as we go along. It feels like the Seahawks are going to cast a wide net and that’s the right thing to do. As mentioned, if any new names emerge today I’ll update the article.

One other quick thing to mention. On an appearance on the Dan Patrick show today, Adam Schefter revealed a little nugget. Schefter was talking about Mike Vrabel and said:

“He’s had a great relationship with the (Seahawks) General Manager John Schneider for quite some time.”

This isn’t well known as they’ve never, to my knowledge, worked together. In studying Vrabel over the last few days he seems to share a similar personality to Schneider and it’s easy to imagine that they’d get on.

It doesn’t mean he’s going to get the Seahawks job. It’s a connection worth considering, though, as the process moves along.

Earlier today, Peter King wrote about the fit, noting: “Mike Vrabel and Seattle make sense.” He later added in his FMIA piece:

On Mike Vrabel. Don’t know where he goes, but if I were him, I’d want to partner with Seattle and GM John Schneider. Excellent organization, smart GM. All Vrabel would have to do is coach a team with pretty good talent, knowing that Schneider has the money and experience to build a Super Bowl team—if they get the quarterback right.

Again, it’s just a name to keep in mind that we might otherwise overlook. Vrabel was named coach of the year in 2021 after leading Tennessee to a 12-5 season. He had a strong run with the Titans, reaching the AFC Championship game in 2019, then going 23-10 in the following two seasons. However, the wheels fell off a bit in the last two years as they tried to transition away from ageing players.

He is a defensive minded coach but his former offensive coordinator, Arthur Smith, was recently fired by Atlanta. That name might make you cringe but Smith led the #5 ranked offense per DVOA in his final year working with Vrabel, before getting the Atlanta job. Titans fans were disappointed when he left.

Before Smith was appointed, Vrabel brought in Matt LaFleur. He lasted a year before being poached by Green Bay. So it’s also possible Vrabel could be persuaded to look towards the Shanahan/McVay system if he was appointed.

Certainly when he left his position in Tennessee, the NFL internally reacted with shock and there was a lot of praise, per this article from Charles Robinson, for a man we’ve maybe overlooked too much in this search.

Let’s get one thing straight — Dan Quinn working for the Seahawks in the past isn’t the reason why he’s a legit candidate to replace Pete Carroll.

Every time his name is mentioned it’s nearly always noted that he could be a ‘continuity’ candidate, that he would help carry on Carroll’s ‘culture’ and not much would change.

Some have even suggested Carroll could have an influence on the hire. It’s been made absolutely clear that John Schneider is in control of the next appointment. Carroll has said himself he has no sway. Last week he was fired. The statement, revealing he would be an advisor, was a gentle way of parting with a popular coach who is part of Seattle sports folklore. He also had a year left on his contract and now they can pay that off over 12 months instead of right away, while retaining a contact line to Carroll if it’s ever needed.

This is Schneider’s call. As discussed on Friday, it’ll be interesting to see what his vision is. I think there’s a good chance, with his Green Bay DNA, the future will include an offensive-minded Head Coach and the drafting of a new quarterback. I don’t think he wants ‘continuity’ — I think he wants a total fresh start.

But I also think Quinn will be a strong contender in his own right, regardless of his history with the team.

One thing I’ve been doing over the last few days is running through various interviews, mic’d up segments and press conferences to get a feel for candidates as people. How are they at public speaking? Do they command a room?

It’s a tedious exercise but one that feels necessary to discuss this hire properly. The next Head Coach can’t just be a coordinator who steps into a top job. They need to have CEO qualities. They need to be able to communicate well and they need to be able to lead.

Coaches do this differently. Kyle Shanahan isn’t the most charismatic individual but his schemes are so productive, buy-in as players is automatic. There aren’t many Shanahan’s out there, though.

Quinn is without a doubt the most impressive public speaker I’ve observed over the last few days. There’s real clarity in the way he speaks. He has a wisdom that comes with experience. It’s very easy to imagine him standing in front of a huge room of players on day one of training camp and everyone listening intently.

I mentioned the other day that I spoke to a former Seahawks player to get his views on Quinn. He was described as a great communicator with a phenomenal ability to connect with players.

This is the first reason why Quinn warrants more respect than simply being described as ‘continuity Carroll’. It’s really hard to appoint someone who can be a true leader of men. Quinn fits the bill.

There’s another thing that comes with experience and that’s the ability to recruit a great staff.

One of the reasons for Carroll’s downfall has been his coordinator and staff appointments. His last three defensive coordinators were all flops, having been promoted or re-hired from within the Carroll circle. He also failed with his offensive coordinators, at least in terms of the success and/or consistency they had in Seattle.

Quinn was the last of Carroll’s coaches to be poached to lead a franchise. That was in 2015. It’s been nine long years since anyone working for Carroll has got a sniff at such an opportunity. Serious questions had to be asked about the support staff and positional coaches too after an underwhelming run culminating in a problematic 2023 season.

There’s evidence to suggest Quinn can succeed where Carroll failed. He’s highly respected with a rich contacts list. He’s worked with various different people in Seattle, Atlanta and Dallas. He’s not permanently attached to ‘his guys’.

He empowers people when he appoints them. He gave Kyle Shanahan the offensive coordinator’s job in Atlanta and he was able to build his own offensive staff — bringing in Matt LaFleur, Mike LaFleur and Mike McDaniel. There were no sons or loyal servants forced on Shanahan.

Unlike Carroll, he can also offer full control of the offense. It never felt like the Seahawks’ offensive coordinator job was particularly attractive, or that a ‘big name’ would ever be sought. Quinn is going to be hands-off on offense and appoint the best person he can get, then let them crack on. With the weapons on the roster, that’s an attractive sell for a play-caller.

Although Quinn struggled to replace Shanahan in Atlanta, he did a good job overall identifying people for his staff. He brought in Raheem Morris as Assistant Head Coach and he’s now one of the trendier candidates in the current coaching cycle, having worked for Sean McVay for the last few years. He poached Marquand Manuel from Seattle’s staff and took him to Atlanta and he has developed into a well-regarded coach, currently working in Philadelphia. Doug Mallory, a defensive analyst currently working for Jim Harbaugh in Michigan, got his first break in the NFL when Quinn took the Falcons job.

When you look at the Cowboys defensive staff, you see a lot of promise. Al Harris is a great presence on the sideline and could be a candidate to join Quinn as defensive coordinator. Others such as Joe Whitt Jr (DB’s, passing game coordinator) and Scott McCurley (linebackers) have done an excellent job as position coaches and could also be part of Quinn’s staff.

Ever since he left Atlanta, Quinn has been preparing for his next opportunity to be a Head Coach. Who goes with him, how he wants the operation to look, what did he learn since leaving Atlanta — all of this will be shaping a plan which is easy to imagine could be quite convincing during job interviews.

There should be very little doubt that if you appoint Quinn as Head Coach, he’ll have clarity on his staff and his vision. As excited as I would be for a younger candidate like Bobby Slowik or Mike Macdonald, they might have a harder time building a staff.

It’s not impossible. Sean McVay marched into his job interview with the Rams, pulled his phone out and told Les Snead, “Wade Phillips will be my defensive coordinator. Here’s his number. He’s expecting the call.” That was a boss move from McVay, immediately eliminating any concern about his inexperience or ability to build a staff.

Slowik or Macdonald may well be able to do something similar but their experience is limited and they might have limited pulling power.

Slowik worked in Washington for two years between 2011 and 2013 then was out of coaching, taking a job as an analyst for PFF. He returned in 2017 with the 49ers, stayed their until a year ago and was then appointed to the Texans’ staff.

Aside from a short stint as an assistant at Georgia a decade ago, Macdonald has only worked for the Harbaugh’s in Baltimore and Michigan. If John Harbaugh loses coordinators in the current cycle, he might appoint from within — making it harder for Macdonald to claim Baltimore’s best position coaches for his staff. Jim Harbaugh, meanwhile, will likely be constructing a whole new staff when he takes a job in the NFL — again potentially limiting Macdonald’s contact pool.

It’s not the be-all and end-all and clearly there are ways around this. John Schneider can lean on his contacts to support a younger coach. Money talks, too. With the way Slowik has coached Houston’s offense and Macdonald Baltimore’s defense this year, they might be suitably brilliant to not worry too much about this. On Slowik in particular, I’d recommend checking out Jeff Simmons’ timeline today. He’s highlighting some great examples of why Slowik should be a strong contender for the Seahawks.

It is a feather in Quinn’s cap though that he will almost certainly be better positioned to put a strong staff together.

The one question for Quinn in this regard would be the offensive coordinator and admittedly, that’s the biggest question moving forward for Seattle. Who calls the plays offensively? The Seahawks have to get this right, whether that man is the Head Coach or merely a coordinator. The feeling that a defensive coach is only as good as his offensive play-caller — highlighted emphatically by Quinn’s time in Atlanta with and without Shanahan — is one that really rings true.

Here’s a point that I think needs to be made. There are experienced offensive coordinators who will be available in this cycle. Kellen Moore is going to leave the Chargers and has worked with Quinn in Dallas. When Ben Johnson is appointed as Head Coach by the Commanders, which feels inevitable, Eric Bieniemy will not remain as offensive coordinator.

There are other names out there, such as Jim Caldwell, who could provide experience without the threat of losing them to another team. You could also be creative by offering Brian Callahan or Mike LaFleur the title of ‘Assistant Head Coach’, a big pay increase and the opportunity to call plays. That would constitute a promotion for both, plus control and authority they don’t currently have working for offensive Head Coaches in Cincinnati and LA.

Pairing someone appealing with Quinn is plausible. However, it’s harder to identify experienced, convincing candidates to coach defense. There aren’t any Wade Phillips types out there, who can act as a mentor as well as lead the defense.

Last year the likes of Brian Flores, Vic Fangio, Jim Schwartz, Vance Joseph, Ejiro Evero and Steve Wilks were all available. Any would’ve been really attractive to pair with a bright offensive mind. This year, it’s slim pickings in that regard.

Brandon Staley might be the best bet, given he’s been a Head Coach. How would he transition back to being a coordinator though and is it something he wants to jump straight back into?

Mike Macdonald has shown there are talented, young defensive-minded coaches out there who can hit the ground running. There might be a name not common to those outside the league who is actually really highly rated.

It feels easier, though, to pair someone like Quinn (or Macdonald) with an offensive coordinator with some history of production than it would be to hire a young offensive mind and get them the Wade Phillips they might need.

The final point I want to raise is about Quinn’s schematic flexibility. He’s admitted that in Atlanta he was too rigid in using the ‘Carroll’ defense and it’s something he’s rectified in Dallas.

This article by Cody Alexander discusses some of the ways he’s shifted from pure Cover 3 to find ways to keep opponents guessing:

Changing the coverage contour post-snap forces offenses to guess the coverage. Defensive Coordinator Dan Quinn likes to run opposite looks on most downs in Dallas. Against the Bengals, Quinn featured two-high looks on early downs, only to snap to Cover 3 post-snap flooding the intermediate passing lanes. Quinn opted for a Cover 3 look on middle downs and snapped to Tampa coverage post-snap.

The constant cat-and-mouse game is needed as most offenses have locked in on “beaters” for most coverages. Using rotations post-snap applies more pressure on the QB, who has to recalibrate his vision post-snap. With premier EDGEs in Dallas, holding the ball can spell disaster for most QBs.

Though Quinn carries more of a zone-match Cover 3 philosophy, he loves to run Cover 1. Until this past season, Quinn has run man-free coverages as a dominant scheme alongside Cover 3. Going from man-match to zone principles helps Quinn keep the playbook simple.

There’s also this piece from Mauricio Rodriguez:

Quinn has always been known for his Cover 3 and Cover 1 schemes that feature one safety up high. It’s what “made him” when he rose through the coaching ranks by being a part of the Legion of Boom defense of the Seattle Seahawks. Recently, however, the rise of the RPO among other things has made those defensive looks much more vulnerable.

That’s why in 2022, the Cowboys defensive coordinator became a “quarters” coverage coach. While different coaches will give you different definitions, think mostly about Cover 4 and Cover 2 varieties where opponents attempt to take the opponents’ deep passing game away.

This forces offenses to be patient with two safeties up high and several deep defenders. Instead of going over the top of the defense, teams have to find a way to attack underneath and pound the rock.

It’s a very significant and encouraging change for Quinn. Not only is he having success with what’s always worked for him, but he’s also showing he’s willing to adapt to the tides of the NFL. The best part is he’s done so efficiently as the Cowboys remained one of the best defenses last year.

Carroll was hardly stuck in his ways and it’s well publicised that he’s moved around different defensive alignments and ideas. Even so, it became tiring watching Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan seemingly find the same weak spots repeatedly whenever they faced the Carroll defense. Quinn seems to be well on top of league trends and attempting to throw questions back at the creative play-callers dominating the league, rather than simply aiming to limit the damage.

The results speak for themselves. The Cowboys had the #5 defense in 2023, having previously ranked fourth in 2021 and 2022. As with Robert Salah and the Jets, Quinn has found a way to consistently deliver a productive defense. And as with Salah, the success or failure of his operation will rest on the ability of his quarterback and offensive play-caller to make the most of it. The Jets consistently fail in that regard, although the Aaron Rodgers experiment was an attempt to change their fortunes. The Cowboys succeed with Dak Prescott.

Give Quinn a good offensive coordinator and quarterback combo and there’s no reason why the Seahawks can’t be a strong team.

Again, let me stress, all of this doesn’t mean I think Quinn is the guy. I’ve made it clear that Ben Johnson is my preferred candidate, based on the research I did for this article about him. The reports that Adam Peters and Johnson are in agreement to work together — and Peters’ appointment in Washington — has killed off most of the hope I had that Johnson will end up in Seattle.

Generally I’m open-minded about alternatives. I’d prefer an offensive-minded Head Coach because I think the roster, in its current state, is tilted towards Seattle’s talented skill players. Getting the most from them is critical and it can shape the identity of the team moving forward. Plus, the likelihood of drafting a quarterback soon makes an offensive leader more appealing. If Slowik leaves Houston after one year, for example, that could impact C.J. Stroud. You don’t want to have to go through that. Plus we saw what happened to Quinn’s Falcons when he lost his hot-shot play-caller. That’s the constant danger you live with when you have a defensive-minded coach.

Slowik’s play-calling performance against Cleveland — DVOA’s #2 ranked defense — was highly impressive. It felt like you were watching Shanahan. For what it’s worth, Slowik is a good communicator too. I asked someone in the league about him and was given this review: “Constantly setup Stroud for success. Has schemed up wide open explosives in nearly every game. Great cohesion to his system.” The question marks are his ability to build a staff and whether he’s ready to lead a team as the main man — questions we likely won’t be able to answer given we’re not in the room when he’s being interviewed and can’t talk to his players and coaching colleagues.

I have reservations about Quinn too. He was 24-29 without Shanahan in Atlanta. He’s had a lot of success with the LOB and Micah Parsons, yet with the Falcons — where he had no stars — his unit was consistently average. It was difficult watching Shanahan destroy the Cowboys earlier this season to the tune of a 42-10 defeat. At a time when it feels like you have to fight fire with fire in the NFC West, I’m not sure Quinn is capable of being the solution to Shanahan and McVay dominating the Seahawks.

In an ideal world you appoint a great offensive mind then go and get a defensive coordinator like Quinn at a time when the Cowboys did — experienced yet keen to rebuild his career, with fresh perspective and a willingness to adapt. As noted though, short of Brandon Staley, it’s hard to imagine who fits that bill.

These are the challenges that face any team leading a coaching search. High-profile coaches like Jim Harbaugh don’t carry these concerns — but he doesn’t seem like even a remote possibility in Seattle. The idea that John Schneider finally gets full control of football operations and his first move is to appoint the one man most likely to argue every single day about every single decision he makes is fanciful. If you wanted Harbaugh, you likely needed a complete clean-break with him getting serious control over personnel.

One final thing I’d say is that patience is required. I think there’s a few dominos still to fall. There’s continuing chatter that other teams could join the coaching search depending on how the playoffs play out.

Jerry Jones is said to be ready to move off Mike McCarthy if Dallas flops in the post-season. That would put an attractive rival job on the market and it could be a situation where Quinn is convinced to stay with the Cowboys.

Mike Tomlin is said to be considering a change of scenery, placing a question mark over Pittsburgh’s future. Things have collapsed so quickly in Philadelphia, it’s not beyond the realms of possibility Nick Sirianni could lose his job given how ruthless Howie Roseman and Jeffrey Lurie can be. There’s even talk that Andy Reid might retire. Working with Patrick Mahomes would make the Chiefs the #1 destination for any offensive-minded coach.

There’s also always room for a surprise too. Miami’s Mike McDaniel is under renewed pressure after the Dolphins’ playoff defeat yesterday and you could forgive Kevin Stefanski for being fed-up with the constant drama and upcoming cap-hell in Cleveland.

This is going to be a process that takes time. Some candidates can’t even be interviewed yet because they’re still in the playoffs. Some candidates won’t want to rush the situation and will wait to see what emerges over the next fortnight. There might not be a new coach in Seattle by the Senior Bowl later this month and people should be prepared for that possibility.

There’s no quick-fix. The only thing anyone should be hoping for is that once the Seahawks identify their #1 target, they make sure they don’t go anywhere else.

Edit: The Cowboys were trounced by the Packers today in the playoffs. There’s a lot of blame to go around for the performance but Quinn was part of it. It’ll be a harder sell, off the back of that game, to convince anyone that the Seahawks’ next direction should be led by anyone involved in that meltdown.

Robbie, Adam and I did a live stream today, discussing everything to do with the Seahawks coaching search. If you missed it, check it out here:

The Seahawks are in a position they’ve only really been in for one year since the turn of the century. Mike Holmgren was the ‘big show’ in Seattle. Pete Carroll, equally, defined everything about the team.

This hasn’t been a franchise where the GM wields the most influence, power and carries the identity. In recent history it’s only happened in 2009, when Tim Ruskell got his way and ran the operation with Jim Mora as his coach. It lasted a year, before both Ruskell and Mora were ousted.

When Carroll’s departure was announced it was revealed that John Schneider would be leading the search for a new coach. It stands to reason that the Seahawks won’t be big-game hunting, landing a name that almost becomes bigger than anything else to do with the team. Not unless they appoint Jim Harbaugh or Bill Belichick, which doesn’t seem likely.

This is the most interesting aspect of discovering who the new coach will be. It’ll tell us everything about Schneider and his vision. What are the Seahawks going to look like? Will it be similar to the previous 14 years? Will it be completely different?

Listening to the various NFL insiders, most are convinced Dan Quinn will be the next Head Coach. Mike Garafolo was on KJR yesterday and almost made it seem like a formality, suggesting he’d possibly been waiting for the gig all along. Ian Rapoport was on Pat McAfee and said the same thing: “I’ve always thought Dan Quinn was waiting for Seattle and he’s a really strong candidate.” He added there was mutual interest between team and coach.

Garofolo mentioned that the coaching candidate I wrote about yesterday, Ben Johnson, has been in talks with the 49ers’ assistant GM Adam Peters to be a double-act for next season. Peters has today been appointed as the Washington Commanders’ new GM and the feeling is he and Johnson — considered by many to be the main coaching prize in this cycle — will work together. Thus, Johnson could well be a non-starter.

I get the impression Quinn’s arrival is increasingly inevitable. It’s not just Garafolo and Rapoport. Adam Schefter made the connection between Quinn and the Seahawks immediately. So did Albert Breer. Ed Werder, who is well connected in Dallas, has repeatedly said Quinn to Seattle was a distinct possibility one day.

Having noted the ‘no smoke without fire’ angle as the basis for insisting we should talk about the Russell Wilson trade saga and Carroll’s potential departure this year, it would be hypocritical to not acknowledge that all signs point to Quinn. No other candidates are being touted. This tweet from Jeff Howe is the only resistance I’ve seen on the Quinn-to-Seattle talk.

Given it’s also since been revealed that Schneider had been tasked with reviewing potential Carroll replacements before the end of the season, it’s possible the Seahawks already know exactly who they want. If they’re focusing on one man, they don’t need to put in multiple interview requests like other teams. We’ve seen no reports of requests so far (although they will eventually come because the Seahawks have to speak to different candidates, even if it’s only to comply with the Rooney Rule).

Quinn is highly respected. I messaged an ex-Seahawk this week to ask about him. He was described as the most seamless option, a great communicator and someone with a phenomenal ability to connect to his players. He felt Quinn would really improve the defense and could work with some of the pieces Seattle has.

I’d read somewhere that Vulcan traditionally go by the ‘no first time CEO’ rule with appointments, although if that’s even true it might merely be a preference given they hired an inexperienced coach in Portland. Even so, hiring a rookie Head Coach might not be the plan. They might be pressing on Schneider, although I hope not, that they want some level of experience.

There’s a method to that thought process. As much as I want to see someone like Ben Johnson get a shot at this, there’s an element of the unknown. You could end up with a Sean McVay or Kyle Shanahan. You could also end up with a Nathaniel Hackett or Brandon Staley. I personally don’t think you can allow fear to dictate any decision on your next Head Coach. If the next guy doesn’t work out, just move on like they did with Mora. Ownership may feel differently.

There is some evidence that second-time coaches benefit from past experience. Holmgren and Carroll are good examples. So too are Bill Belichick in New England and Andy Reid in Kansas City. Even Dan Campbell had 12 games as interim Head Coach in Miami prior to joining Detroit.

You can also point to plenty of second-timers who underwhelm and fail. At the moment, Dennis Allen doesn’t seem to be fairing that much better than he did with the Raiders. The point is though, you can well imagine a GM or ownership having a preference for someone with experience.

It would also make sense for Schneider to go with someone he knows very well. This has to work. He doesn’t know how many chances he’ll get to appoint a coach. If the new guy fails, will he be making the replacement hire? It’s critical that he appoints someone he knows he can work closely with.

Let’s say he goes with a coach he has no prior relationship with. They may not ‘clash’ but they also might not see eye to eye. I can imagine when a relationship becomes strained between a GM and coach, life can be pretty miserable.

If Schneider goes out and gives someone their chance, it might create a loyalty bond that prevents any issues down the line. Schneider would be ‘the boss’ and therefore, his say is final. You get the gist though. If you have to live in each other’s pockets, you want it to be with someone you know you won’t want to strangle.

Quinn would undoubtedly fit the bill as someone who could work with Schneider. His reputation has been enhanced in Dallas and he has the CEO qualities as a leader that you look for. They obviously know each other very well.

There are other angles to consider, though.

Firstly, while it’s important for Schneider to identify someone he knows he can work with, he also needs someone he truly believes will deliver top-end results. It’s no good being great friends with the coach if you aren’t winning. That’s another sure-fire way to ensure your own position is in jeopardy.

Quinn’s record in Atlanta was not impressive without Kyle Shanahan. He had a 24-29 record without him. His defensive units were consistently average. I’m sure if they appoint Quinn they’ll say he’s a coach who has taken a team to the Super Bowl and it’ll be promoted as a great positive. It feels deceptive. Shanahan’s offense was electric in 2016, turning Matt Ryan into the unexpected NFL MVP. We’ve since seen what a Shanahan offense can do in San Francisco.

With Steve Sarkisian and Dirk Koetter running the offense, things fell apart. If the Quinn appointment is so completely tied to getting the offensive coordinator right, is he actually the right person to appoint?

This is the issue with hiring a defensive coach. Frequently, they’re only as good as the offensive coordinator and quarterback.

Mike Tomlin had to fire his offensive coordinator this year and Kenny Pickett looks very average. Give him a great play-caller and a better quarterback and the Steelers might be as strong as the Ravens. Would Belichick still be the Patriots coach if he wasn’t floundering to replace Josh McDaniels and if Mac Jones had worked out?

Can Quinn be brilliant in Seattle without an all-star offensive play-caller and a great quarterback? How do you find those two things? If they don’t get either right, are we just going to see what happened in Atlanta? 24-29.

Admittedly an offensive Head Coach will need a long-term answer at quarterback too but if he’s scheming a great offense, that’s half the equation with no danger they’ll be poached by another team.

Does John Schneider truly believe that Quinn walking through the door gives the Seahawks the best chance to eventually contend again for Championships? Is he going to be able to go toe-to-toe with Shanahan and McVay in the division?

When the Cowboys played the Niners this season, they lost 42-10 and gave up 410 yards of offense and 170 rushing yards. They did, however, thrash the Rams 43-20 in a game where Matt Stafford injured his thumb in the first half. The Rams managed only 280 total yards.

The other thing that gives me pause on Quinn is Schneider’s background in Green Bay. Look at the Packers’ recent history. Holmgren, Mike McCarthy and Matt LaFleur. All offensive coaches.

Ron Wolf is often cited as a big influence on Schneider. He appointed three coaches — Holmgren, Ray Rhodes and Mike Sherman. Of the three, Rhodes is the only defensive minded coach.

I had a look at what happened around that appointment. Rhodes replaced Holmgren in 1999. Wolf was reportedly a big fan of his coaching style and nobody else was interviewed for the position. He only lasted one year though, going 8-8, before being fired amid accusations of underachieving. Sherman, an offensive coach, replaced him.

I don’t know if this will have any bearing on Schneider’s decision. On the one hand, Wolf was a fan of Rhodes and went with him. He also clearly felt he made a mistake and had to correct it 12 months later. Then he went back to an offensive guy.

Green Bay’s identity for a long time now has been an offensive coach and a legendary quarterback. That’s the glamour surrounding the Packers. I’ve always felt Schneider was very much part of that DNA. There’s always a bit of excitement in his voice when he talks about quarterbacks. He rightly takes a lot of pride in his evaluation of Russell Wilson. Who else was letting the national reporters know immediately after Patrick Mahomes was drafted by Kansas City that Seattle really rated him? I get the sense — although will never be able to confirm — that Schneider’s favourite part of the job is scouting quarterbacks.

Going with Quinn as Head Coach won’t undermine that but I just think there’s at least a possibility that Schneider will want to use what has worked for Green Bay for so long — getting an offensive Head Coach and pairing them with a great quarterback. I suspect his plan for the team will include drafting that QB either this year or next.

There’s a counter to that thought too. Garofolo, who I sense is well connected to Schneider based on his reporting over the years, also said on KJR yesterday that the offensive coaches have been well mined over the years and there aren’t many quality options left. If Johnson is destined to go to Washington and if Harbaugh isn’t a consideration, it may simply be that the Seahawks think their best bet is to go with a defensive guy because the ones available are more talented coaches.

That’s a tough pill to swallow though. For example, the top-10 offenses per DVOA are all playoff teams. The only two not coached by an offensive mind are Baltimore and Buffalo and those two teams have Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. Four of the top-10 defensive teams are not in the playoffs — the Jets, Jaguars, Patriots and Raiders. Those teams rank 32nd, 18th, 29th and 27th offensively. They all have great performing defenses and they’re all let down by the offense.

The Seahawks might need to fix their defense as a pressing concern but what is the best way to do that? Is it to try and make the defensive side of the ball your identity through your Head Coach? Or is it to get a base level of competence to complement an offense that could be highly explosive with DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tyler Lockett, Ken Walker and Zach Charbonnet?

What is the best way to achieve that highly explosive offense? Is it to appoint an offensive minded Head Coach? Or is to try and find an offensive coordinator acting as a QB coach somewhere attractive in a Shane Waldron-style experiment?

For the reasons I laid out yesterday, I think they should go all-in on Ben Johnson. I think there’s ample evidence within that article explaining why. I think he’d be an ideal fit to work with the tools in Seattle because they’re similar to what he has in Detroit. Sadly, it seems like he’s far more likely to be heading to Washington.

If he’s unavailable and if the Seahawks don’t want to roll the dice on someone like Bob Slowik, they don’t actually have that many obvious offensive options. They could speak to a Brian Callahan or an Alex Van Pelt. They might just feel that candidates like Quinn, Brian Flores, Mike Macdonald and Raheem Morris are superior Head Coaching options.

I’m not convinced any of those names are of the standard of Shanahan and McVay and that’s the concerning thing. It’s why I’m totally open to Harbaugh if he’s an option because love him or loathe him, the guy can coach. He would scare the NFC West to death. He’d love to play the Niners twice a year. I just think it’s about as likely as Darrell Bevell being the next Head Coach.

Thus, I’ll go full circle, this is perhaps why Quinn — to the national reporters at least — feels like a shoe-in. A safe bet.

Is that what the Seahawks need to restart after the Carroll era though? Something ‘safe’? And isn’t ‘safe’ another way of saying ‘unremarkable’?

Plus how much does Schneider want a continuity candidate, versus complete change? I think more than anything right now the franchise needs a jolt — not just a slightly different version of Carroll.

Two final points. Adam Schefter’s report at the weekend noting Jerry Jones doesn’t want to lose Quinn and could fire Mike McCarthy in order to keep him has to be noted. If McCarthy loses to the Packers this weekend, that could happen. It doesn’t mean Quinn would necessarily choose Dallas over Seattle. It’d be interesting to know which job he’d prefer. It does feel, however, like Jones is fretting about his coaching setup.

It’s interesting that Mike Sando made reference to McCarthy having strong connections to the Seahawks front office, namely Schneider. When McCarthy was still in Green Bay, a report surfaced that Schneider was his ‘preferred choice’ to replace Ted Thompson as GM.

If McCarthy is fired by Dallas in favour of Quinn, could he be an option for Schneider?

They have a connection. He’s not a first-time Head Coach. He’s offensive-minded. He’s from the Green Bay DNA. It won’t get the juices flowing among Seahawks fans but I guess you could maybe see it happening?

Finally, I think Jason Puckett made a good point on KJR yesterday. It could be someone left-field who nobody is talking about. That has often been the way in the draft with Schneider and it could be with the Head Coaching search.

That wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing. It’s not like Sean McVay was a household name before emerging as a candidate for the Rams. Ditto John Harbaugh when he got the Ravens job or Mike McDaniel in Miami. They were all in the league but people weren’t demanding their favourite team go and get them.

It’s going to be an interesting few weeks although, to go full circle, it does sound a lot like Quinn could be their guy.