Month: January 2024 (Page 2 of 5)

Robbie, Adam and I will be doing a live stream at 3pm PT. We’ll be discussing the news today that it appears the Seahawks are down to two candidates. They intend to meet with Ben Johnson in Detroit this week. They’ll also meet with Mike Macdonald, unless the Ravens reach the Super Bowl. In that case, they’ll be prepared to wait for him if needed.

Join in via the live chat and we’ll see you there!

Let me be clear, I’m a fan of Mike Macdonald’s. He speaks with a real authority during interviews and there are no wasted words. He’s succinct, his messaging is clear and there’s no doubt he’s a good communicator without needing to speak like Mel Gibson in Braveheart.

You can see he’s having a positive impact on a Ravens defense that ranked #1 per DVOA. Baltimore became the first defense in NFL history to lead the league in points allowed, sacks and turnovers this season. Macdonald absolutely is the kind of candidate the Seahawks should be talking to, picking his brains, seeing what his broader vision is and considering whether or not he should be the Head Coach for the next era of this franchise.

But I’ve noticed in recent days that Seahawks fans and media have started to go a bit too far. Macdonald’s reputation is taking on a life of its own. I’ve seen the words ‘defensive wunderkind’ used. People are saying he’s the antidote to ‘McShanahan’. Really? As we’ll see, the statistical evidence doesn’t back that up. All the while it’s being ignored that the structure of the Ravens, crafted over two decades, has enabled coordinators to be swapped in and out with little drop-off in performance.

Did you know that in the last 27 seasons, the Ravens have been the #1 ranked defense per DVOA five times and they were ranked in the top-10 every year between 1999 and 2011? There’s been a consistent run of success, irrespective of who the defensive coordinator is.

It’s also pretty clear that the Ravens benefit from having the NFL MVP quarterbacking their team. Lamar Jackson has been a revelation this season, earning a 90.9 PFF grade. We’ll come on to just how effective Baltimore’s offense has been in a moment — because it’s helped the defense in a way that has to be seen to be believed.

Firstly though, let’s fact-check some things about Macdonald and his ability to push back against Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay.

Here’s how Baltimore’s defense faired against the Rams:

— 410 total yards conceded
— 6/16 third down
— 31 points conceded
— 128 rushing yards
— 34:35 TOP
— Zero turnovers

This was a game played in Baltimore, won in overtime 37-31 thanks to a kick-return walk-off touchdown. The Rams really should’ve won this game, despite a fairly typical offensive performance from Lamar Jackson and the Ravens’ offense (449 total yards).

Baltimore’s defense and their inability to get an angle on McVay and Matt Stafford almost cost them a win and contributed very little to a victory spurred by the offense and special teams.

Now let’s look at Baltimore’s impressive 33-19 win against the 49ers and how they handled Shanahan’s offense:

— 429 total yards conceded
— 6/14 third down
— 121 rushing yards
— 6.7 yards per rush

Again, it’s not exactly a reassuring set of statistics. These are the kind of stat-lines we’ve come to expect from the Seahawks against the Rams and Niners.

Baltimore won the game in Santa Clara mainly due to four Brock Purdy interceptions. You can watch them all by clicking here. Two are bad Purdy mistakes, two involve a large slice of turnover luck:

Interception #1 — A bad read from Purdy, not doing enough to hold Kyle Hamilton away from the intended target and throwing into a dangerously tight window that was easy to undercut.

Interception #2 — A batted pass at the LOS which wildly lands right into the hands of another pass rusher at the opposite end of the line.

Interception #3 — Purdy does his best Russell Wilson impression to scramble away from trouble, throws into tight 1v1 coverage and the ball is deflected up into the air and picked off on the rebound by another Ravens defender.

Interception #4 — An inaccurate throw by Purdy going to Christian McCaffrey, right into the hands of a grateful Patrick Queen.

To be fair, the Ravens’ defense was flying around all night and that no doubt flustered Purdy and led to mistakes. It should be acknowledged, though, that Shanahan moved the ball pretty much at will in the game and avoidable turnovers cost San Francisco. Lamar Jackson was also superb on the night.

Now let’s look at some other examples. The Ravens hammered the Dolphins a few weeks ago 56-19. I’ve seen this game used as an example of a Shanahan disciple in Mike McDaniel being ‘shut down’ by the Ravens’ defense. Miami still recorded 375 total yards and ran for 154. They were 6/15 on third downs. Why did the Ravens blow them away? Lamar Jackson. He had five touchdowns passes, over 350 total yards and was a relentless scoring machine. The scoreboard pressure applied was immense. McDaniel and his Shanahan-esque offense, though, still moved the ball.

The two teams also played in 2022, with Miami winning 42-38 in Baltimore. McDaniel’s offense produced 547 total yards, were 7/11 on third downs and Tua Tagovailoa had six touchdown passes. Again, there was very little pushback against the Shanahan scheme.

Remember when the Seahawks beat the Browns this season? Two weeks later, that same Cleveland team went to Baltimore and beat the Ravens 33-31 with a barely healthy Deshaun Watson limping around at quarterback. They won by running for 178 yards and going 8/16 on third downs.

There’s a bit of a common theme here — the Ravens not defending the run very well. They gave up 4.5 YPC on the season, the ninth highest average in the NFL. Their 109.4 YPG average ranked 19th highest, so just above average for the league.

None of this really speaks to a formula that can consistently shut down the 49ers and Rams.

Now in fairness, over the course of the season Baltimore’s opponent third-down conversion rate (36.26%) ranked sixth best in the league. As we see above though, they weren’t too clever against the Shanahan/McVay systems in this area.

It’s also a lot easier to play great defense when your offense stacks up points, applies weekly scoreboard pressure and can tee-off. That is what the Ravens do because of the brilliance of Lamar Jackson.

Curtis Allen pulled out a great statistic to highlight this advantage for Baltimore’s defense. The Ravens’ defense had a remarkable 88 total snaps this year when trailing. They barely played any time at all without a lead, in the entire 2023 season. Baltimore’s offense ranked top-five in first, second and third quarter scoring as well as time of possession. They had 193 snaps when tied to go with the 88 when trailing, compared to the defense playing 831 snaps when ahead. This is unprecedented.

Now, maybe it’s possible for the Seahawks to similarly create an offense that can achieve all of this, rank fourth in DVOA and produce the NFL MVP in 2024 or beyond? Until that happens though, you won’t be creating the kind of environment where Macdonald’s defense thrived this season.

A shout-out too to blog commenter Peter who highlighted another statistic of note. From 2003-2023, the Ravens have only had four seasons where they didn’t rank in the top-10 for defensive points allowed. Within that 20-year span, they were in the top-five 14 times. Since Lamar Jackson was drafted, there’s only been one season where the defense didn’t rank in the top-five in points allowed — and that was a year where he only played 12 games.

There are two things to take from this. Firstly, we shouldn’t underestimate the impact of having a phenomenal quarterback who helps the Ravens score points quickly with explosive plays, manages the offense like a more traditional QB when required yet can also be an incredible playmaker as a runner. Jackson is basically what everyone hoped Michael Vick would be, and then some. He’s going to be a two-time NFL MVP in a few weeks and possibly a Super Bowl winner. If he wins a ring, he’ll be on a Hall-of-Fame trajectory.

Secondly, the Ravens have done a tremendous job building a defense whoever the coordinator is. From Rex Ryan to Chuck Pagano to Dean Pees to Wink Martindale and now Mike Macdonald. They’ve all enjoyed success. Yet aside from Ryan’s fleeting purple patch with the Jets, neither he nor Pagano enjoyed lasting glory as a Head Coach. Let’s put it this way, if Macdonald departs Baltimore — it’ll be a safe bet that their defense will continue to excel.

The Ravens are a unique animal. We should probably talk about this more. They haven’t always been an amazing team — but they have consistently been able to build a roster that fits a certain style and image. Ozzie Newsome was the architect of identifying ‘what is a Raven?’ and his chosen heir — Eric DeCosta — has carried it on. The results speak for themselves.

This has enabled Baltimore to consistently produce a strong defensive brand of football, a running game and they’ve done a good job drafting for the quarterback position (Joe Flacco won a Super Bowl as the 18th pick in round one, Jackson may win one as a former 32nd overall pick).

That’s not to take anything away from the coordinators, who still need to bring everything together. The point is though, there are a lot of moving parts within the greater Baltimore machine. Can you plausibly take one part of that machine, have it shipped to Seattle and transfer the successful formula? Can anyone truly copy ‘what it means to be a Raven’ and apply it to their own structure? Or do you have to try and work out your own style and identity?

Not enough time has been spent wondering if Macdonald is a system coordinator, ideally suited to working within the structure he’s been brought up in. That might sound harsh but it’s an inconvenient topic we should broach if he’s going to lead the next era of Seahawks football. Can you take him out of Baltimore and transfer it to Seattle with the players and situation he will inherit? Or is he a young coach working in an ideal environment to succeed, with everything in place — a great front office making excellent personnel decisions, an experienced Head Coach and staff in support, a brilliant quarterback aiding the defense by scoring so many points. It’ll be different in Seattle.

This warrants some contemplation, yet at the moment the feeling around Macdonald is more one of wanting the trendy new, young coordinator on the team who is doing well without really digging into whether this is a Macdonald thing, a Ravens thing, a Lamar thing or — most likely — a bit of everything.

Then there’s another dilemma to consider. Who’s going to be Macdonald’s offensive coordinator? This is a key question. The Seahawks will not become a great team without the right caliber of play-caller and quarterback for the long haul.

Robert Saleh was similar to Macdonald a few years ago — a trendy young coordinator hire who benefitted a lot from the Shanahan offense and stars on defense. Once he was given the main job, what happened? His defensive output translated but very little else has. The Jets have a good defense every year but they’re hopeless on offense. They’ve fired one offensive coordinator, seen a quarterback drafted #2 overall bust, ended up trading for Aaron Rodgers and they’re going to spend the next off-season scrambling to put a functioning offense together.

The Seahawks will do well to be as dysfunctional as the Jets and they have better pieces on offense. But it goes to show that a team, even with a good defense, tend to only be as good as the offensive play-caller and quarterback. After all, it’s not just the Jets. The Patriots, Raiders and Jaguars all ranked in the top-10 for defense per DVOA. All struggled on offense and had disastrous seasons.

It’s also worth noting, interestingly, that nine of the 13 highest ranked defenses started last season without a defensive-minded Head Coach. Only three of the 13 highest ranked offenses had a non-offensive mind in charge.

Macdonald has only ever worked for the Harbaugh’s in Michigan and Baltimore. What is his contact list like? How is he going to compete with Jim Harbaugh as he puts a staff together in LA? Who can he take from Baltimore, given John Harbaugh will likely seek to promote from within if he loses his defensive coordinator?

Is the plan to try and coax Mike Kafka to ask for his release from the Giants to be offensive coordinator? I guess that might work. Maybe. But if it’s not him, what are the other options? At a time when Shane Waldron was snapped off the market straight away, Kliff Kingsbury is getting a good look by multiple teams and Chip Kelly’s name is seriously doing the rounds — there aren’t many good options to bring in as a coordinator. If you find someone who succeeds, you also run the risk of losing them straight away and having to go through the whole process again.

I’ll say it again — this isn’t something that ever seems to get talked about amid all the ‘get Macdonald to Seattle pronto’ chatter online.

The situation won’t be helped, either, by the fact the Seahawks have to wait until February 12th to even have an introductory meeting with Macdonald. That’s a long time to wait to find out how much shared interest there is in the position, whether visions mesh and whether you think this is the right direction to take. By the time the Super Bowl has finished, are you left sifting through the remaining available staff? What if the Ravens lose the Super Bowl if they get there and he has a change of heart and opts to stay put to finish the job?

All of this probably sounds like I’m anti-hiring Macdonald. Again, I’m not. I feel like I have to talk about these things because nobody else seems to want to. I think he comes across well, his players are clearly very organised, the Ravens might win the Super Bowl and he would’ve played a key role in that.

However — all of the context above in this article also matters.

My preference has been the same from the moment Pete Carroll was fired. Rightly or wrongly, the Seahawks have built their team around offensive skill players. They’ve paid the likes of D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett huge salaries, they’ve used high picks on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ken Walker and Zach Charbonnet and if Geno Smith is retained, he’ll possibly be earning $31.2m next year.

Rather than say, ‘well the offense is fine, find a defensive coach’ — I’d rather focus on maxing out the production of the weapons you have. The Seahawks should be getting more out of the likes of Metcalf. They should be trying to do what the Ravens are doing — outscore opponents and apply pressure. They have the personnel to do it.

We’ve seen how Metcalf and co. underachieved under a defensive Head Coach. I want to see the kind of production Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are enjoying in Detroit. We’ve tried the defensive route for the last few years, isn’t it time to try something else?

Whether we want to accept it or not, the Seahawks are far closer to the Lions than the Ravens. They have the weapons, they don’t have a great defense. The best thing to do, in my opinion, is to try and emulate the Lions by being an offense-driven team with a complementary defense. If Detroit can parlay that into a legit run at the Super Bowl, there’s no reason why the Seahawks can’t.

I’m hoping all of the talk about Ben Johnson being ‘a done deal’ to the Commanders is inaccurate and there’s still a card to be played by John Schneider and the Seahawks this week. If there is, they should push all of their chips into the middle of the table and play that card. Get Johnson in Seattle, set him the task of turning the Seahawks’ offense into the Lions and then go and get a defensive coordinator to help support him. Offer Ejiro Evero or Patrick Graham a pay rise and an Assistant Head Coach title to make it happen. This, to me, would be the best decision based on the current state of the Seahawks’ roster, with the intention of resetting in a new direction quickly with the intention of being more than a team that muddles around making up the playoff numbers.

And before anyone says anything about Detroit’s offensive line — both of their guards are free agents. Go get them.

I don’t think any defensive-minded Head Coach is coming in to ‘limit’ Shanahan and McVay without a significant period of transformative work to the roster, including being bad enough to one day draft a blue-chip talent. I think the best thing to do is square-up to your two division opponents and try to outscore them.

Ben Johnson, to me, has always been the home-run hire. If it’s simply not possible to get him and the Seahawks pivot to Macdonald, fine. But let’s at least be honest about what that means.

Amid the fear of an underwhelming appointment that may or may not be coming next week in Seattle, I do think one thing is pretty clear. John Schneider is itching to draft a quarterback. I think whatever happens with the appointment of a Head Coach, adding a new QB is going to be a priority, together with pairing the player with a strong developer of quarterbacks in one form or another.

Schneider’s lukewarm assessment of Geno Smith at his press conference was a major shift in energy from Pete Carroll’s unwavering support. With the team facing a cap-crunch this off-season, and with a degree of resetting required post-Carroll, it’s not beyond the realms of possibility they’ll just move on from Smith. Especially if they can’t work out a way to lower his $31.2m cap hit in 2024.

It’ll all come down to how Schneider feels about this class of quarterbacks. There are six prominent ones, who could all go in the top-50. The top-three of Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye (who’s a bit overrated) will likely go in the top-10. After that, it’s a fluid situation. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Michael Penix Jr, Bo Nix and J.J. McCarthy find a home in round one — with plenty of QB-desperate teams — or see any of them last into day two.

I do think at #16 they Seahawks will have options. If Schneider likes someone outside of the ‘big three’ he should be able to land them one way or another, even if it involves some movement. In this latest mock, I want to represent that possibility. It’s a two-round mock. Obviously the Seahawks don’t start with a second rounder but there are trades involved, so scroll down to find out what happens (with a full explanation after the mock).

Round One

#1 Chicago (v/CAR) — Caleb Williams (QB, USC)
Williams will be the top pick and Chicago would be mad to trade out of this spot. In this scenario, they move Justin Fields to another team — Atlanta perhaps?

#2 Washington — Jayden Daniels (QB, LSU)
I think Daniels is the clear QB2 in the draft and with Lamar Jackson set to win MVP and potentially the Super Bowl, there’ll be little reason for the Commanders not to be inspired by their near neighbours in Baltimore and take Daniels.

#3 New England — Marvin Harrison Jr (WR, Ohio State)
Pass on Drake Maye? Yes. There will be mixed opinions on Maye. The Patriots instead decide to select the best overall talent in the draft, then trade back into round one later to get their QB.

#4 Arizona — Rome Odunze (WR, Washington)
Odunze might be the safest pick in the draft. A++ character, body control, speed, hands, consistency and professionalism.

#5 LA Chargers — Brock Bowers (TE, Georgia)
The ideal pick for Jim Harbaugh and his offense.

#6 NY Giants — Drake Maye (QB, North Carolina)
As mentioned, Maye is going to be a lot more polarising than people realise. Some teams will really like him, others will be less enthused. But he’ll go in the top-10.

#7 Tennessee — Malik Nabers (WR, LSU)
I think he’s similar to A.J. Brown. Time to rectify an all-time error by the Titans.

#8 Atlanta — Jared Verse (DE, Florida State)
It wouldn’t surprise me if the Cardinals took him at #4. He’s the complete pass rusher.

#9 Chicago — Chop Robinson (DE, Penn State)
In terms of quickness and bend off the edge, Robinson is off the charts. He’d create an incredible double-threat with Montez Sweat.

#10 NY Jets — Tyler Guyton (T, Oklahoma)
Every time I watched him I was wowed. He’s incredibly light on his feet for his size but still packs a punch.

#11 Minnesota — Dallas Turner (DE, Alabama)
I think he’s a bit overrated, his frame worries me and he’s not as electric to make up for it as Chop Robinson. Still, the league needs pass rushers.

#12 Denver — JC Latham (T, Alabama)
Incredible talent. As with Guyton, he’s so light on his feet despite his massive size. They are both brilliant prospects.

#13 Las Vegas — Taliese Fuaga (T, Oregon State)
There’s nothing graceful about Fuaga. He’s a beast. He’ll line-up and hammer you.

#14 New Orleans — Olu Fashanu (T, Penn State)
I think he’s overrated by draft Twitter. All of the physical tools are there but he’s far from the finished product and needs plenty of technical work.

#15 Indianapolis — Terrion Arnold (CB, Alabama)
A fun person with great character and his coverage skills are very impressive. I’m not sure any of the CB class deserves to go this early but it’s a premium position.

#16 Green Bay (v/SEA) — Joe Alt (T, Notre Dame)
I think he’s too tall and I was always left wanting more but the rush on tackles forces Green Bay to leap up to ensure they don’t miss out.

#17 Jacksonville — Amarius Mims (T, Alabama)
He is factory-built to play the position, with minimal body-fat despite his enormous size. His potential is through the roof but he needs to stay on the field.

#18 Cincinnati — Laiatu Latu (DE, UCLA)
Technically very gifted and he uses his hands well but he’ll need to be strong at the POA and there are some medical concerns to check out.

#19 LA Rams — Troy Fautanu (G, Washington)
The Rams can bring him in and try him at tackle or guard.

#20 Pittsburgh — Spencer Rattler (QB, South Carolina)
I get the sense he will have a great draft season and elevate up the board due to his natural talent. He’s so much more dynamic than Kenny Pickett and has a Steelers swag to his personality.

#21 Miami — Graham Barton (C, Duke)
A great blocker who may be unspectacular as a pro but he’ll play for a long time, probably at guard or center.

#22 Philadelphia — Nate Wiggins (CB, Clemson)
They desperately need more in the secondary.

#23 Houston (V/CLE) — Byron Murphy (DT, Texas)
I like him based on physical tools and potential but he’s undersized, kind of maxed out and he played in bursts in 2023 — he wasn’t a week-to-week dominant force. Testing will put him in round one though.

#24 Dallas — Jer’Zhan Newton (DT, Illinois)
I think he’ll be dinged for his size and length but there’s no doubting his impact and ability to disrupt.

#25 Seattle (v/GB) — Michael Penix Jr (QB, Washington)
I just get the sense John Schneider is set on drafting a quarterback. After trading down, he takes the plunge. Schneider was enamoured with the arm strength of Mahomes and Allen and Penix Jr, despite having flaws, has similar arm talent.

#26 Las Vegas Raiders (v/TB) — Bo Nix (QB, Oregon)
Fearing they’ll miss out on the QB’s, the Raiders move up to secure Nix — who feels like a player who could go either way in his pro-career.

#27 Arizona (v/HOU) — Bralen Trice (DE, Washington)
Once Trice tests well at his size, he’ll get a lot more buzz in this range.

#28 Buffalo — Xavier Legette (WR, South Carolina)
Legette has the frame and his speed to be special, especially if Josh Allen is his quarterback.

#29 Kansas City — Jacob Cowing (WR, Arizona)
He’s such a technically gifted player, I think he’ll go earlier than many think.

#30 Detroit — Kamari Lassiter (CB, Georgia)
It’s the position on defense they need to address the most.

#31 San Francisco — Cooper DeJean (S, Iowa)
A versatile chess-piece of a defender who will test well at the combine.

#32 New England (v/BAL) — J.J. McCarthy (QB, Michigan)
The Patriots trade back into the first round to take McCarthy.

Round Two

#33 Carolina — Kingsley Suamataia (T, BYU)
#34 Baltimore (v/NE) — Kool-aid McKinstry (CB, Alabama)
#35 Arizona — Sedrick Van Pran (C, Georgia)
#36 Washington — Jordan Morgan (G, Arizona)
#37 LA Chargers — Quinyon Mitchell (CB, Toledo)
#38 Tennessee — Cooper Beebe (G, Kansas State)
#39 NY Giants — Jackson Powers-Johnson (C, Oregon)
#40 Washington (v/CHI) — Patrick Paul (T, Houston)
#41 Green Bay (v/NYJ) — T’Vondre Sweat (DT, Texas)
#42 Minnesota — McKinley Jackson (DT, Texas A&M)
#43 Atlanta — Troy Franklin (WR, Oregon)
#44 Tampa Bay (v/LV) — Keon Coleman (WR, Florida State)
#45 New Orleans (v/DEN) — Brian Thomas Jr (WR, LSU)
#46 Indianapolis — Jeremiah Trotter (LB, Clemson)
#47 NY Giants (v/SEA) — Brandon Coleman (G, TCU)
#48 Jacksonville — Chris Braswell (DE, Alabama)
#49 Cincinnati — Ja’Tavion Sanders (TE, Texas)
#50 Philadelphia (v/NO) — Edgerrin Cooper (LB, Texas A&M)
#51 Pittsburgh — Malachi Corley (WR, Western Kentucky)
#52 LA Rams — Jonah Elliss (DE, Utah)
#53 Philadelphia — Jalen McMillan (WR, Washington)
#54 Cleveland — Tez Walker (WR, North Carolina)
#55 Miami — Ladd McKonkey (WR, Georgia)
#56 Dallas — Charles Turner (C, LSU)
#57 Tampa Bay — Ennis Rakestraw Jr (CB, Missouri)
#58 Seattle (v/GB) — Payton Wilson (LB, NC State)
#59 Houston — Ruke Orhorhoro (DT, Clemson)
#60 Buffalo — Kalen King (CB, Penn State)
#61 Kansas City — Xavier Worthy (WR, Texas)
#62 Detroit — Zak Zinter (G, Michigan)
#63 San Francisco — Zach Frazier (C, West Virginia)
#64 Baltimore — Christian Haynes (G, Connecticut)

The trades explained

Green Bay trades with the Seahawks in round one
The Packers want to move up and secure one of the top offensive tackles, so lean on their relationships in Seattle to move up nine spots. Per the trade chart, the Packers would owe 280 points. They have two second round picks so give the Seahawks #57 (330 points) and Seattle in turn gives Green Bay their fourth rounder, pick #118 (56 points).

The Raiders trade back into round one with Tampa Bay
Las Vegas needs a quarterback and having bolstered their line with their top pick, they move back into round one to get a QB. This costs them approximately 240 points according to the trade chart, so they give the Buccs their third rounder at #77 (205 points) and their fifth rounder at #148 (31.8 points).

The Patriots also trade back into round one for a quarterback
New England opts to take Marvin Harrison Jr at #3 and wait on the quarterbacks, pouncing to tap into the Michigan QB pipeline again for J.J. McCarthy. They do a deal with Baltimore, moving from #34 to #32 to get the fifth year option. The jump of two picks costs them a fifth rounder (#137).

Thoughts on Seattle’s two picks

Firstly, the trade. I think the lack of depth beyond round three in this class — given all the players who stayed in school — makes a trade down like this with Green Bay appealing. It suits both parties because the Packers have two second rounders and might want to be aggressive to secure a franchise offensive tackle for Jordan Love. For the Seahawks, they get back into round two.

As noted earlier, I think Schneider is itching to draft a quarterback. So why Michael Penix Jr, given in this scenario he trades down and QB’s #4-6 are all still available? The medical checks are important but Penix Jr ticks a lot of boxes for Schneider. Firstly, the arm talent is right up there with Mahomes/Allen who he previously rated highly. Penix Jr helped elevate his team to contender status and has a ton of starting experience in college, two things he’s often payed attention to. Schneider’s background is Green Bay and a big-play, gunslinger style of football — not methodical dinking and dunking. What Penix Jr lacks in subtlety and intermediate precision, he makes up for with dynamic power to thread the ball into tight windows downfield for key explosives.

Some teams will turn their noses up at Penix Jr and I maintain he could go anywhere from rounds one to three. It’s not just the injuries — it’s the inconsistent streak he had in the middle of the 2023 season, the pre-determined nature of the offense and being left-handed is a bigger issue than many realise. I do think, however, Schneider will see the appeal here provided he gets a full medical green light. In the right system, he also might be able to compete to start quickly.

Getting back into the late second round is also important for Seattle given their lack of cap space and multiple needs. I have them selecting Payton Wilson, who I’m a big fan of. As with Penix Jr, medical checks will be key. He’s stayed healthy for the last two seasons which is reassuring. Plenty of people won’t like the two picks due to the medical issues associated with both players’ history. Yet Wilson and Penix Jr present rare opportunities to get elite skills (Penix Jr — arm strength, Wilson — remarkable speed/pursuit/motor). I wrote more about Wilson in my horizontal board piece recently and have him graded as a blue-chip player. Here’s a recap:

Wilson is incredible. When he rushes off the edge, he can be extremely effective. When he settles in at linebacker, there’s some Luke Kuechly to his game. He flies to the ball-carrier like every single snap is the last one of his life. He’s an outstanding athlete, running in the 4.4’s with a 4.21 short shuttle and a 35.5 inch vertical. His pursuit is elite as is his closing speed, he hits like a hammer and his motor never stops. His missed tackle percentage in 2023 (4.7%) was the second lowest among linebackers in college football. He also ranked second in defensive stops (tackles that constitute a ‘failure’ for the offense). He had three interceptions, ranked second for batted passes and he recorded six sacks. His run-stop percentage (16.3%) ranked first.

He’d be ideal to place next to Jordyn Brooks (or someone cheaper) as a roaming playmaker who could quickly establish himself as one of the leagues best.

You tell me what you see from Wilson…

Let me know your thoughts in the comments section (just keep it civil)…

The day after Pete Carroll was fired, I appeared on Puck and Jim on KJR. Jason Puckett brought up a point that I’ve since heard in a couple of other places. John Schneider is known for being unpredictable in the draft. Could the same thing happen with his first Head Coaching appointment?

Initially it was difficult to imagine who that could be. Then the names started to come in, including a few most people hadn’t anticipated. Mike Kafka was on the list of interviewees and he’s since been invited for an in-person meeting this week.

Making him Pete Carroll’s replacement wouldn’t be any more surprising than, say, Patrick Graham or Ejiro Evero. Yet very few people talk about Kafka. He’s the one guy everyone overlooks. He’s an afterthought. I think there’s at least a chance if Schneider is going to pull off a shock, this could be his guy.

He’s not the most charismatic individual. He seems quite low-key, similar to Doug Pederson in that regard. In a recent interview on KJR, a New York based journalist told a story about how Kafka’s own mother, during an interview, referred to him as boring. Yet he’s had something of a meteoric rise through the coaching ranks after a journeyman playing career.

Here’s a quick recap. A former fourth round pick by the Andy Reid-led Eagles, he bounced around six different teams before trying his hand at coaching at alma mater Northwestern. It’s there he decided to commit to a coaching career and after a year, he hooked up with Reid in Kansas City, taking on the role of offensive quality control coach. A year later, in 2018, he was promoted to quarterbacks coach — working with a certain first-year starter called Patrick Mahomes.

After two seasons he added the title ‘passing game coordinator’ and he began to gain buzz around the media as a highly thought of lieutenant of Reid’s. He was also being touted as the heir apparent to Eric Bieniemy, should he be offered a job as a Head Coach. That never happened — so Kafka took the plunge in 2022 to move to New York and reconnect with Brian Daboll, who coached him during a stint in New England. Funnily enough, a year later Bieniemy moved on himself. You have to wonder how vaunted Kafka would be right now if he’d just waited one more year with the Chiefs and replaced Bieniemy.

With the Giants, he called plays (likely a promise that lured him to New York). However, Kafka was a victim of what is appearing to be an increasingly toxic environment under Daboll’s leadership as this article explains:

Daboll “constantly second-guessed” Kafka’s play calls, according to the report. That characterization isn’t a surprise based on conversations with team sources.

The Daily News also reported that Daboll took play calling away from Kafka “multiple times” during the season and even gave those duties to quarterback coach Shea Tierney in the second half of the Giants’ 49-17 loss to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 10. I haven’t been able to confirm that, but a league source indicated Daboll took play-calling duties away from Kafka during the second half of a blowout loss midway through the season, and the Dallas game fits that description.

The New York Post published a story Tuesday that pushed back on aspects of the Daily News report (tabloid wars are fun!). The Post story made no mention of the play-calling situation, which is interesting since that’s the most sensitive topic from the Daily News story.

So, what does this all mean? The Giants are operating under the “expectation,” to use Daboll’s word from the day after the season ended, that Kafka will remain as offensive coordinator. But Kafka is a candidate for the Tennessee Titans’ and Seattle Seahawks’ head-coaching vacancies.

Kafka is a long shot for a head-coaching job, but it’s still possible he’ll leave the Giants this offseason. The Giants can block interviews for a lateral move, but if another team wants Kafka as OC and he’s interested in the opportunity, it wouldn’t be a surprise if he’s granted permission. So there’s still a chance Daboll will replace all three coordinators this offseason.

It all sounds fairly nightmarish and not exactly the platform to launch a Head Coaching career. Indeed if it’s possible Kafka could ask to be released from his contract, it’s not improbable the Seahawks are open to bringing him in as an offensive coordinator and that’s one of the reasons they want to further meet with him. This is a way to converse, when otherwise the Giants could block any request.

There are reasons, though, why the Seahawks might consider Kafka for the top job.

Firstly, Schneider respects Andy Reid. There’s a lot of love for Reid among the current and former Green Bay contingent, which Reid is part of (having worked for the Packers between 1992-98 before joining the Eagles). Kafka has been getting a seal of approval from Reid, who vouched for him when he was runner up for the Cardinals job a year ago:

Andy Reid said he endorsed Mike Kafka to Cardinals owner Michael Bidwell. "He’s a very intelligent, great human being,” Reid said. “The quarterback will love him. He’ll challenge him to be better than he even is now. But he’ll do a great job.'' Kafka worked for Reid in K.C.

— Paul Schwartz (@NYPost_Schwartz) February 7, 2023

He also had this to say about Kafka a year ago:

“He’d do a great job as a head coach. He’s good with people, and he’s smart. He’d be good with the ownership and good with players, too. Still be able to relate to the players. And you know, he’s young enough to where it wasn’t that long ago that he was playing.”

Let’s consider what we know here. Kafka worked for Reid and has likely adopted his offensive approach and philosophy. He has been praised for his role in the development of Patrick Mahomes. He’s described as a good person with high intelligence.

At least initially, Daboll also offered plenty of praise:

When asked recently why he hired Kafka, Daboll said it was because Kafka had good presence in his coordinator interview, handling the room well. He could tell Kafka would be a good teammate. He could also tell Kafka was smart.

He might not fit the mould of a Dan Campbell type leader — and his press conferences, it has to be said, can be positively sleep-inducing. However, we don’t actually know what Schneider is looking for.

There’s at least some thought, as I noted in my horizontal board piece, that this is going to be a very different Seahawks moving forward. Schneider’s vision could be offense-orientated. Appointing a coach steeped in an ideology you like with a track record for developing QB’s, having worked for Andy Reid and mentored Patrick Mahomes — that could be appealing to Schneider. Begin drafting quarterbacks until you get the guy, then pair the coach and signal-caller together and make that the identity of the team.

That feels very Green Bay, very Andy Reid and, I guess, very John Schneider.

It won’t be the most inspiring direction but it does feel left-field and, to some degree, plausible. I don’t think Schneider is committed to Geno Smith at all. I’ll just copy and paste my thoughts from the horizontal board article:

I think John Schneider is itching to take a quarterback. I’m just trying to work out what I think that means. In Green Bay, they would take them frequently. Schneider hasn’t done that but was it a decision influenced by Pete Carroll? Could we now start to see Schneider taking shots at the position, until he gets ‘the guy’?

For that reason, it wouldn’t surprise me if he took a chance on someone at #16. Rightly or wrongly. Can I see Schneider believing the physical qualities of Nix or Penix Jr are worth rolling the dice on in the middle of round one? Maybe.

After all, he reportedly was willing to draft Andy Dalton in round one in 2011. Here’s an article from Danny O’Neil, reflecting on what happened:

The Seahawks very much considered choosing Dalton with the 25th pick of the 2011 draft. In fact, there were rumors his name was written on a draft card that never turned in…

Now, before we continue it’s important to offer a few qualifiers. The information that forms the basis from this story comes from multiple sources who were actually present in Seattle’s draft room during the two years in question. It does not, however, come from Schneider, and that’s important to disclose because not only does he figure so prominently in the storyline, but he is adamant about avoiding giving any one person credit for a team’s selection. That’s the way he has been since the day he was introduced as Seattle’s general manager in 2010.

Dalton was a serious consideration in the first round for Seattle. In fact, Schneider advocated for that selection. The issue was one of consensus. Specifically, Schneider didn’t want to force his conviction on a player on the rest of the scouting department and the entire franchise.

This wasn’t about who has the final say, either. Schneider runs Seattle’s draft. The question was how he would run it, and he has never wanted a front office in which his voice is the only one that makes the decisions.

This is a really important piece of information. Schneider is now in charge of decision making at all levels. It’s not unrealistic to think that left to his own devices, Schneider would’ve taken Dalton. Now, is he going to be emboldened to make that call?

Dalton played in an extreme spread, four-verticals heavy offense at TCU. It was user-friendly. He played very well in college but not in a jaw-dropping way. Schneider liked him. Could he feel similarly about, say, Bo Nix at #16? I wouldn’t rule it out even if I think he’s a day-two pick.

Schneider’s answer when asked about Geno Smith last week was extremely lukewarm and offered no hint of commitment. Could he just outright move on, with the intention of proceeding with Drew Lock as a safety-net and someone taken at #16 as the way forward? I don’t think it’s beyond the realms of possibility.

Let’s imagine a scenario where the Seahawks cut Geno Smith to save money with the intention of drafting a quarterback, potentially to start quickly. If Schneider is convinced Kafka is a great developer of quarterbacks, he might want to pair him with the younger player. If you can land a talented defensive coordinator and build a quality staff around Kafka, you might’ve set up something akin to a younger version of Andy Reid’s operation.

At the end of the day, they’re talking to Kafka about replacing Pete Carroll. He has to at least be in the running. Is it possible they snub some of the bigger names and pluck Kafka out of the Giants, challenging him to do with a younger QB what he did with Mahomes?

It’s worth thinking about.

And as Jeff Simmons has been quick to point out — it’s not always the highly successful coordinators who make the best Head Coaches. Kafka might not be the most outwardly exciting candidate — but that doesn’t mean he’s not up to the job.

In the last few days I’ve gone and forth on what might be going on here. There are some facts to consider. The Seahawks won’t have fulfilled the Rooney Rule until they interview Ejiro Evero on Saturday. As of today, they have not set up a second interview for next week with Ben Johnson. A lot of people in the media are going back to Dan Quinn being the ‘clubhouse leader’ while others continue to suggest that isn’t the case. They never arranged a second interview with Bobby Slowik or Frank Smith.

It’d be a lot more reassuring, at least for those of us hoping there’s still a chance of Ben Johnson coming to Seattle, if a second interview was announced. He’s due in Washington on Tuesday. The fear has to be that they won’t let him out of the building without a deal, thus leaving the Seahawks to pick from the people they interviewed this week or wait until February 12th to speak to Mike Macdonald.

Adam Schefter is saying the Seahawks and Commanders want to wait until after the conference Championship games to proceed. Mike Holmgren has also said he thinks John Schneider would like to appoint Ben Johnson if he can. You do wonder, if the Lions lose and the Ravens win this weekend, whether the two teams remaining with vacancies will make a big push to employ Johnson. It seems pretty clear the Commanders have the upper hand given all the talk about a relationship with GM Adam Peters and the fact he already has an interview booked in for Tuesday. It still seems somewhat fanciful that the Seahawks would wait until mid-February to even have an initial conversation with Macdonald. So perhaps next week is key. Can they persuade Johnson not to go to Washington? Or do they resort to Plan B, from the list of candidates they have been interviewing?

I’m going to post a mock draft either later today or tomorrow. Briefly though, I want to share a thought that has lingered on my mind since Tuesday.

What exactly is the Seahawks plan? I’ve seen a few different reporters hint that they’re not close to concluding their coaching search. Tom Pelissero, when he announced the list of second interviewees, said there’d be others and called it a thorough process. Albert Breer said the Seahawks were being open-minded about the search and had interest in Mike Macdonald (who they can’t even speak to until after the Super Bowl). Tony Pauline cited sources claiming the franchise has a “long way to go before making their final decision.”

If the process is drawn out and the Seahawks land a top candidate, then it’ll all be worthwhile. A job well done. However, I’m starting to have some reservations.

For example, why haven’t the Seahawks requested second interviews with Ben Johnson or Bobby Slowik yet? The Falcons and Commanders have done so with both. There’s nothing stopping the Seahawks making a request, even with Johnson preparing for the NFC Championship game.

Is there no intention to speak to them? Are they just biding their time? Why wouldn’t you arrange an interview with Johnson now? If nothing else it shows a degree of keenness in a competitive market for his services.

No interview has been arranged or conducted with Mike Vrabel. Increasingly, he doesn’t appear to be a candidate.

So unless they’ve decided to wait it out for Mike Macdonald, who they’re yet to even have an initial interview with, you can’t help but wonder whether this second interview list is who they’re picking from.

Maybe they will wait for Macdonald? I’m not sure how wise that would be, given you’d be weeks away from building a staff while other teams begin that process already. The big question with that hire would undoubtedly be, who will be his offensive coordinator? Several potential options will be hired by mid-February.

Perhaps we’ll discover in the next 48 hours that the Seahawks do intend to speak to Johnson for a second time and the process will actually continue into next week? However, as I noted in a video on Tuesday, I’m starting to fear that this search has been little more than due diligence.

Has Dan Quinn been the target all along?

You have to go through a process due to obligations over the Rooney Rule, so a Quinn coronation was never viable. In the aftermath of the Green Bay debacle in the playoffs it would’ve been especially difficult to rush through a Quinn appointment.

Some of the steam off that Dallas disaster has died down. While many fans will see it as a disappointing and underwhelming hire, others will convince themselves it can work.

Maybe it’s been a true process and they simply approached it with a mindset of seeing if anyone can usurp Quinn? That’s viable. Yet with no known interviews scheduled for next week, you’d be forgiven for wondering if they’ll just announce someone on Sunday or Monday and that’ll be it.

The problem with Quinn — or even Mike Macdonald for that matter — is exactly what we saw today. Dave Canales has been hired by the Panthers after one solitary ‘decent’ season as an offensive coordinator. He produced the 20th best offense, per DVOA, and Baker Mayfield was the 19th ranked quarterback per PFF (level with Derek Carr).

An achievement as relatively unspectacular as that enables an offensive coordinator to claim a Head Coaching job these days.

Quinn, Macdonald, Ejiro Evero, Patrick Graham, Raheem Morris — they’ll all only be as good as their offensive play-caller and quarterback. If they appoint even a reasonable offensive coordinator, the chances are they’ll need replacing. How many times can you do that successfully? And when other teams are considering employing Kliff Kingsbury, Shane Waldron has already been snapped up and Chip Kelly’s name is doing the rounds — isn’t it true that there’s now a dearth of prospective or unemployed competent coordinators? Mostly because the better ones are now Head Coaches or about to become Head Coaches.

It’s why the Seahawks should really be focusing on finding an offensive mind to lead this team, which has already been built to be offensive-led with so much investment in the skill-positions.Then they should try and coax one of Evero, Graham or someone else to come and be an Assistant Head Coach and defensive mastermind.

Until we hear of further interviews scheduled, there has to be an increasing fear (at least if, like me, you think it’d be a underwhelming appointment) that all along it was Quinn. The man who Kyle Shanahan smirks about beating, who couldn’t get a handle on a McVay protégé in the playoffs and has had to rely on Micah Parsons and the LOB for success as a coordinator — neither of which would be going with him to Seattle in 2024.

I published my first horizontal board on the 1st December and it’s time for an update. This is a pre-Senior Bowl version. I’ll post another board after the event in Mobile. There’s a lot of information on the draft below, including a must-read theory on the future at quarterback in Seattle. Look at the board, read the notes and let me know what you think in the comments section.

Click the image below to enlarge:

It’s a whole new world

The NIL era has changed college football and the draft forever. An incredible number of players have returned to school or entered the transfer portal and in the end, only 54 eligible players turned pro. This has significantly impacted the depth of the draft.

In terms of quarterbacks, Georgia’s Carson Beck, Missouri’s Brady Cook and Texas’ Quinn Ewers all opted not to turn pro and return to their scools. Tyler Van Dyke (Wisconsin), Cam Ward (Miami), Will Howard (Ohio State), Will Rogers (TBD), KJ Jefferson (UCF), Riley Leonard (Notre Dame), Grayson McCall (NC State) and DJ Uiagalelei (Florida State) all transferred.

What was once considered a uniquely deep and gifted quarterback class has been stripped down considerably.

A large number of players at other positions also decided not to turn pro:

— TreyVeyon Henderson, Tyleik Williams, J.T. Tuimoloau, Jack Sawyer, Denzel Burke, Emeka Egbuka and Donovan Jackson are all staying at Ohio State

— Wisconsin tackle Jack Nelson

— Notre Dame defensive tackles Howard Cross and Rylie Mills

— West Virginia defensive lineman Sean Martin

— Arkansas pass rusher Landon Jackson

— Miami receiver Xavier Restrepo

— Tennessee receiver Bru McCoy

— UCF receiver Kobe Hudson

— Oregon receiver Tez Johnson

— Kansas State running back DJ Giddens

— Texas defensive tackle Alfred Collins

— Louisville defensive lineman Ashton Gillotte

— North Carolina defensive end Kaimon Rucker

— NC State defensive end Davin Vann

— Georgia linebacker Smael Mondon

— Clemson linebacker Barrett Carter

— Utah tight end Brant Kuithe

— Penn State tight end Tyler Warren

— Iowa tight end Luke Lachey

Meanwhile, receivers Josh Kelly (Texas Tech), and Julian Fleming (Penn State) have transferred, as has cornerback Trikweze Bridges (Florida) and running back Raheim Sanders (South Carolina). Texas Tech pass rusher Steve Linton has entered the portal but is yet to select a new team.

This updated horizontal board looks a lot thinner than it did a few weeks ago and the depth has evaporated. There are many players I am yet to study, including several who are competing in Mobile. They will be added in time. If I’ve missed any names on the board who chose not to declare, let me know.

More blue-chip players

I’ve spent the last two years studying quarterbacks first, trying to watch all of their games, while also staying across every other position. Once I’m done with the QB’s, I do a lot more study on the others. As a consequence, I’ve added five players to the ‘blue chip’ bracket — receivers Rome Odunze and Malik Nabers, pass rushers Jared Verse and Chop Robinson and linebacker Payton Wilson. All five, in my opinion, are worthy of going in the top-10, pre-testing and medicals — along with Caleb Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr and Brock Bowers.

Verse is a machine and capable of being a disruptive game-wrecker off the edge. His initial burst and quickness is excellent and he fires into blockers with great power. From there, he’s adept at using his hands to disengage and break off blocks. He can win with speed, he has a variety of moves and he has the size and aggression to defend the run. I think he could go in the top-five and the top-10 feels like a certainty. He’s a complete pass rusher.

Robinson has rare bend and speed to round the edge and burst to the quarterback. He will likely be a testing phenom at the combine and you see extreme quickness and explosion in his play. He’s very much a 3-4 OLB type and doesn’t have the sand in his pants currently to be a reliable run defender. However, as a pass-rush threat he could excel very quickly and a creative defensive coordinator will find ways to get him working to the QB.

Odunze is a remarkable player. When I visited the Husky facility I was told he can run in the 4.3’s. He has A++ character. His body control and ball-tracking is elite. He is reliable, dominant and will be a pillar of consistency on and off the field. Nabers, meanwhile, also has excellent body control and a fantastic ability to compete 1v1 in the end zone. He can stretch opponents running across the field while also being used as a red-line force. I think he shares some similarities in terms of playing style to A.J. Brown. He won’t test brilliantly but he’s just a pain in the arse to cover.

Of the group of blue-chippers, Wilson is the one who won’t go as high as I’ve graded him. This is due to a history of shoulder injuries, a torn ACL and hamstring issues. He’s now played back-to-back years without an injury, which is encouraging, but medical tests will determine how early he is drafted. That said, I challenge anyone to watch his tape at NC State and tell me he’s not one of the 10 best players in this draft in terms of talent, effort and production.

Wilson is incredible. When he rushes off the edge, he can be extremely effective. When he settles in at linebacker, there’s some Luke Kuechly to his game. He flies to the ball-carrier like every single snap is the last one of his life. He’s an outstanding athlete, running in the 4.4’s with a 4.21 short shuttle and a 35.5 inch vertical. His pursuit is elite as is his closing speed, he hits like a hammer and his motor never stops. His missed tackle percentage in 2023 (4.7%) was the second lowest among linebackers in college football. He also ranked second in defensive stops (tackles that constitute a ‘failure’ for the offense). He had three interceptions, ranked second for batted passes and he recorded six sacks. His run-stop percentage (16.3%) ranked first.

I’ve never wanted a player to pass a medical more since starting this blog in 2008. Wilson is a special, special talent and his potential has no limits.

What are the positions of strength in the draft?

It’s a really thick offensive line class. I have six tackles I’d be prepared to draft in round one, plus a tackle/guard convert. I have a further three tackles, five centers and four guards graded in round two. If you want to build a strong O-line for the future, this is a good draft to try and do it.

It’s also a deep receiver class, with elite talent at the top and numbers stretching well into round three. So the two key strengths are O-line and receiver.

What are the weaker positions?

There are no running backs worthy of being drafted before the third round. It’s a thin edge rusher class that is very top heavy and the defensive tackle group is overrated. As usual, the safety and tight end positions are thin.

Where are we at with the quarterbacks?

It’s one of the harder classes to analyse and I’ve agonised far more on this group than any other in recent memory.

Firstly though, something obvious. Caleb Williams will be the #1 pick. His obscene natural talent, arm strength and creativity make it a no-brainer. For me, Jayden Daniels is the clear QB2 thanks to a combination of deep passing ability, incredible playmaking as a runner and a smooth, steady progression throughout his career.

I wanted to represent the separation between these two players and the next four by grading them as I have on the updated board. Frankly, though, I think you can make a case for any of the next four going on day one. That’s the dilemma with the class. You can focus on what any of them ‘can’ do — and their positive traits — and sell taking them early. This isn’t like the 2022 class with Malik Willis, Kenny Pickett, Matt Corral and Desmond Ridder where they all obviously looked like third round types (and that’s where I had all of them on my board).

I think Drake Maye will polarise teams, with some loving the size, risk-taker mentality, arm strength and surprising mobility. Others may think he’s too reckless and streaky. I’m not sure Maye will go as high as some think — and I’ve been consistent on that for the last year.

J.J. McCarthy has shown nothing at Michigan to warrant being placed in the first frame but the belief is someone will take him. I’m struggling to work out why. For me, he’s a mid-round talent with limited upside. I’ve graded him in round three.

The Oregon offense is a real challenge when it comes to Bo Nix. The lack of any pressure faced and the extreme user-friendly offense, consisting of getting the ball out as quickly as possible (approx 30% of throws behind the LOS) makes a projection for Nix extremely difficult. He faced only 79 pressures in 2023, the fewest in the whole of college football. His completion percentage (77.3%) was way ahead of anyone else, mainly because of the sheer number of high percentage completions. Nix attempted 105 screen passes in 2023, third most among quarterbacks.

There are moments on tape where he shows physical brilliance, accuracy and touch. Yet it really feels like the the environment is perfectly set-up for him. When he gets to the next level, everything will be different and far more challenging. How will he handle that? It’s almost impossible to say with any certainty. You can imagine positive and negative outcomes, quite easily.

His throwing motion is elongated at times with the arm dropping down. What happens to that release when he’s being harassed? When he faces pressure, will he resort back to Auburn Nix? Can he throw with timing, progress through reads under fire and make layered, accurate completions under duress? He is a very good athlete, teams will like his personality and the Senior Bowl and combine setting will suit him — he could easily wow at both events, convincing someone to draft him significantly earlier than the grade warrants.

Penix Jr remains one of the harder players to judge because his arm talent is incredible and worthy of a top grade, yet there are legit concerns to also contemplate. It’s no exaggeration to say it shouldn’t surprise anyone if he went 16th overall or 76th.

You’ve got the injury history and teams will pay close attention to the combine medicals. Being left handed requires far more adjustment to your offense than most realise. His play dipped considerably for a large stretch this past season, as noted in a previous article:

He started the year throwing 74.9% completions in his first five games. He then went on an eight-game run where that dropped to 60.1%. During these two same split periods, his average ‘big time throws’ per game stayed exactly the same (2.6 per game). So he was still completing the big, eye-catching plays — there were just an increasing number of bad throws/incompletions to go with it. This is also why his PFF grade in the same periods started well at 89.9 and then tailed off to 71.6.

This all coincided with an increase in pressures from 6.6 per game to 10.7 per game. Once the ‘easy pitch-and-catch’ games were gone, the production and performance dropped. The game against Oregon State was a great example. He had a couple of outstanding ‘wow’ plays that get you out of your seat shouting ‘top-10 pick’. He also had plenty of wild chucks to nowhere, including over an hour of play where he didn’t have a completion. You can’t blame the weather either. He was erratic. That game basically encapsulates him as a player. Big win, big throws — but also a lot of icky moments.

There are also concerns about the offense he played in throughout his college career, at Indiana and Washington. My source noted to me last week, there’s a play vs Arizona where he looked off to one side of the field, then came back to the pre-determined intended target. The thing is, his receiver had fallen down during his the route. Penix Jr threw it anyway, because that’s what the scheme called for. It’s pre-determined. This is a world away from the NFL.

When you watch some of his games in the middle section of the season, it felt very boom or bust. He’d hit on big plays to supercharge the offense but then have stretches where he’d throw a ton of incomplete passes and couldn’t function. Can he throw to the short/intermediate level with timing and accuracy or is he constantly going to need to look for the big play?

Back to the positives though, and he absolutely played a major role in elevating the Huskies to near National glory. In the big moments he often delivered — especially against Oregon in the PAC-12 Championship and Texas in the Sugar Bowl. The arm talent is special and I’d argue is of a similar level to Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. He’s a far better athlete than people realise (he can jump a 38-inch vertical). As I mentioned, Penix Jr could go in the first round or the third round. Remember, a year ago people were talking about Hendon Hooker going in the top-15. People will be shocked and surprised if Penix Jr lasts — I wouldn’t be. That’s not to diminish his qualities which are obvious. I’ve tried to explain this over a number of months. There are extreme positives with his arm but there’s another side to the story and when combined with age/injuries/scheme — he might last longer than many think.

I’ll finish with Spencer Rattler. I’m a lot higher on him than most others writing about the draft. He more than any of the names above has a grasp of pro-style football. Dowell Loggains (NFL background) was South Carolina’s offensive coordinator last year and used pro-terminology and concepts. This wasn’t a Washington/Oregon style offense. The transition to the next level should be smoother for Rattler compared to those working in pre-determined, spread offenses.

I think his stock has suffered through no fault of his own. I was incredibly impressed with the way he played in 2023. Everything around him was awful apart from Xavier Legette. He had no other receivers to speak of, the running game was a mess and the offensive line was one of the worst in college football. He was battered most weeks with the line giving up 186 total pressures (fourth most) and as a consequence he was sacked 3.7 times a game (eighth most). Despite this, he regularly delivered pro-level passes with defenders breathing down his neck. He only had 11 turnover-worthy plays, the same number as Drake Maye, the 79th most in college football. It speaks to how he has transformed his game, has not forced things under pressure and has remained composed in the pocket.

Further to this, his adjusted completion percentage (the percentage of aimed passes thrown on target) is 79.6% — eighth most in the NCAA. That’s only one place behind Heisman front-runner Jayden Daniels (79.9%), despite all of the pressure he faced.

Rattler led all quarterbacks in completion percentage off play-action (79.4%) — ahead of Jayden Daniels in second (77.8%), Bo Nix (77.8%), Cam Ward (77.2%), J.J. McCarthy (75.3%) and Quinn Ewers (75%). Although it’s worth noting, Ewers threw considerably more play-action passes in 2023 (he was the only player among the top performers with +200 attempts).

This is all such a difference compared to the old Rattler at Oklahoma, who refused to play in structure and was reckless, trusting his arm too often and giving off a sense that he was freelancing. Every week it felt like he was throwing into obvious double or even triple coverage for a lousy turnover (or two). Now, he does what the offense needs him to do. He only threw eight interceptions — many of them hopeful attempts trying to drag his team out of a lost cause. That’s three fewer picks than Penix Jr and one fewer than Maye.

He can also scramble to extend plays and make gains on the ground. Rattler oozes natural talent. He has a gun-slinger mentality and I stand by the comparison that he’s a poor-man’s Mahomes. It’s easy to forget now but three-years ago, many people were projecting him as a top-five pick.

The big challenge for Rattler is going to be meeting with teams. I can see through his interviews that he’s a very different person to the brash, cocky, carefree player we came to know at Oklahoma. Yet there are things that happened there — not serious things, just things that teams will roll their eyes about and wonder whether he’s the guy they want as the face of the franchise. He’ll need to answer questions about those concerns, take ownership of his mistakes and he’ll need his coaches at South Carolina to vouch for him. If he can do this, he has the talent to go a lot higher than people realise. If he can sell teams on being a changed man and excel at the Senior Bowl and combine — don’t be shocked if in a few weeks he turns into a hot name, touted as a ‘riser’ (when in reality, the talent was always there).

If he doesn’t go early and lasts into the middle rounds like many are suggesting, he could end up being a steal. I appreciate I’m rating him a lot higher than most but the talent and potential is obvious, he’s worked in a NFL environment (SEC, NFL play-caller, constant pressure) and shown he can deliver. It’s very easy to imagine him joining a NFL team, without the hopelessness of the 2023 South Carolina Gamecocks, and taking off.

What is a realistic plan for the Seahawks?

So much is going to change — we don’t even know who the Head Coach is yet. Or what’s happening with Geno Smith’s contract. Or who’ll still be on the roster. It’s virtually impossible to project anything at this stage.

However, I’m still going to give it a go.

I think John Schneider is itching to take a quarterback. I’m just trying to work out what I think that means. In Green Bay, they would take them frequently. Schneider hasn’t done that but was it a decision influenced by Pete Carroll? Could we now start to see Schneider taking shots at the position, until he gets ‘the guy’?

For that reason, it wouldn’t surprise me if he took a chance on someone at #16. Rightly or wrongly. Can I see Schneider believing the physical qualities of Nix or Penix Jr are worth rolling the dice on in the middle of round one? Maybe. Perhaps he’d even stun the experts and take Rattler?

After all, he reportedly was willing to draft Andy Dalton in round one in 2011. Here’s an article from Danny O’Neil, reflecting on what happened:

The Seahawks very much considered choosing Dalton with the 25th pick of the 2011 draft. In fact, there were rumors his name was written on a draft card that never turned in…

Now, before we continue it’s important to offer a few qualifiers. The information that forms the basis from this story comes from multiple sources who were actually present in Seattle’s draft room during the two years in question. It does not, however, come from Schneider, and that’s important to disclose because not only does he figure so prominently in the storyline, but he is adamant about avoiding giving any one person credit for a team’s selection. That’s the way he has been since the day he was introduced as Seattle’s general manager in 2010.

Dalton was a serious consideration in the first round for Seattle. In fact, Schneider advocated for that selection. The issue was one of consensus. Specifically, Schneider didn’t want to force his conviction on a player on the rest of the scouting department and the entire franchise.

This wasn’t about who has the final say, either. Schneider runs Seattle’s draft. The question was how he would run it, and he has never wanted a front office in which his voice is the only one that makes the decisions.

This is a really important piece of information. Schneider is now in charge of decision making at all levels. It’s not unrealistic to think that left to his own devices, Schneider would’ve taken Dalton. Now, is he going to be emboldened to make that call?

Dalton played in an extreme spread, four-verticals heavy offense at TCU. It was user-friendly. He played very well in college but not in a jaw-dropping way. Schneider liked him. Could he feel similarly about, say, Bo Nix at #16? I wouldn’t rule it out even if I think he’s a day-two pick.

Schneider’s answer when asked about Geno Smith last week was extremely lukewarm and offered no hint of commitment. Could he just outright move on, with the intention of proceeding with Drew Lock as a safety-net and someone taken at #16 as the way forward? I don’t think it’s beyond the realms of possibility.

Equally, I can see him thinking a third rounder — if he lasts that long — on Spencer Rattler would be something akin to a shot to nothing. A free hit on a talented player. If it doesn’t work out, perhaps he targets Quinn Ewers in 2025 — a player I’ve long thought would be right up Schneider’s street.

So even though the quarterback class has been severely weakened by players staying in college, I wonder if Schneider fully intends to try a new approach to the position — taking chances until he finds the long-term starter.

If he appoints an offensive-minded Head Coach, especially one with experience in developing young quarterbacks, it could be a tell.

Here’s something else to consider — with the depth of the draft weakened with so many players returning to college, will he be more inclined to use his 2024 picks to trade up? He has two third rounders to play with.

If it’s not a quarterback in round one, the first question is whether Jared Verse or Chop Robinson last? They are the only two viable blue-chippers I see being mocked into range. If they are there, you have to strongly consider taking one of them. They’re too good.

What’s the future for Abe Lucas? If his knee is a long-term concern, the 16th pick would be prime position to take a tackle.

If neither of these situations are plausible and if you aren’t going to go for one of the second tier quarterbacks, maybe the best plan would be to trade down and try to acquire more stock for day two, which will be rich for interior offensive linemen.

Four other players I want to highlight

Zak Zinter (G, Michigan) — coming off an injury but said to be making great progress, Zinter isn’t going to wow anyone with his athleticism but he’s a tough, physical blocker who has every chance to be a long-time starter at the next level. For me, he’s the best pure guard in the draft.

McKinley Jackson (DT, Texas A&M) — from very early in the college season I was promoting Jackson as DT1 in this class. He is physical and brutal up front with enough quickness to provide some pass rush and disrupt. Plus, he is going to set a tone on the defense and will develop very quickly into a team captain. A true heart and soul culture building type who also makes plays.

Xavier Legette (WR, South Carolina) — there just aren’t that many people with his combination of size, speed and playmaking ability. He will put on a show at the combine and he has the potential to be a X-factor playmaker.

Jacob Cowing (WR, Arizona) — I was so impressed with his ability to get open. I’m not sure he’s going to be an amazing tester but he’s the kind of player who can easily settle into a very productive WR2 or WR3 role.

Bralen Trice (DE, Washington) — he needs to get stronger for his size and add a bullying element to his play, yet his athleticism is off the charts for his frame and he had an excellent 2023 season. I’ve seen the testing numbers at UW and he can run a 4.2 short shuttle in the 265/275lbs range. That will pique the interest of many teams.

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The new horizontal board is publishing today — firstly though, some video thoughts on the latest from the Seahawks’ Head Coaching search…

With the Lions winning in the divisional round at the weekend, I’ve started to see people highlighting the work of Dan Campbell. Undoubtedly, he’s done a great job. Many people on social media are now calling for the Seahawks to appoint someone who can provide his level of leadership and expertise.

I think there’s a significant chunk of context to add here.

When Campbell was initially appointed in 2021, he hired Anthony Lynn as his offensive coordinator. He took over an offense that had Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, D’Andre Swift, Jamaal Swift, Josh Reynolds and T.J. Hockenson. Four fifths of their current starting offensive line, including first rounders Taylor Decker, Frank Ragnow and Penei Sewell were on the team too.

The Lions started that season 0-8-1 before Lynn was removed from playcalling duties, with the offense struggling badly. The Lions finished the season 3-5.

Under Lynn, they averaged 16.6 points per game. When he was removed, they averaged 21.8. Despite the uptick in production, they finished the season with the 29th ranked offense per DVOA.

Johnson was promoted to the coordinator role for the 2022 season. The Lions improved to 9-8 that year, they scored 26.6 points per game and the offense ranked 7th per DVOA. They were dependant on the offense, because the defense ranked 27th.

This season, the Lions are in the NFC Championship game with an overall record of 14-5. They’re scoring 27.1 points per game and the offense ranks fifth per DVOA (the defense ranked 13th).

The point is, Campbell with Lynn as offensive coordinator was a winless Head Coach with a struggling offense. Since promoting Johnson, the Lions have been an offensive-reliant team that has improved its output and performance consistently. They’ve gone from being so bad they earn the #2 pick in the draft to being within a game of the Super Bowl.

What’s the bigger factor here? Campbell’s leadership or Johnson’s appointment as offensive coordinator?

I’m not trying to undermine Campbell who is clearly a person players want to play for. Meshing with Johnson’s tactical quality, they make a great pair. However, in the hierarchy of importance, without Johnson calling plays, Campbell’s Lions were winless. Look at the difference — 0-8-1 with Lynn, 26-18 after. 29th ranked offense before, top-seven ever since.

Another quick point to make regarding the importance of experience, leadership and staff-building, which I fear is going to take great prominence in the discussion this week. I want to highlight this article again from 2017. It’s Gregg Rosenthal’s coaching hire rankings from that year. He had Anthony Lynn ranked first, when he was appointed the Chargers’ coach. Sean McVay was second, Kyle Shanahan was fourth.

Here’s what Rosenthal said of Lynn:

This ranking is not just about Lynn, but the staff that he quickly built. Lynn chose to keep offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt, reportedly at the prodding of Chargers management. Lynn also convinced former Seahawks defensive coordinator and Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley to run his defense.

Lynn’s inexperience running a team — he’s never been a head coach at any level, though he did serve as the interim head coach in Buffalo after Rex Ryan’s firing heading into Week 17 — will be mitigated by the presence of two former head coaches (Whisenhunt and Bradley) on his staff. Those hires show a self-confidence and lack of ego that will serve him well.

Lynn won the job in large part because he was a “natural-born leader,” according to Chargers president John Spanos. It’s easy to see why players swear by him after listening to Lynn address the media. He carries himself like someone who will be doing this a long time.

He’s a leader, he’s built a great staff, he speaks with authority, he has no ego. All admirable qualities I can imagine people in Seattle saying to justify the appointment of someone like Dan Quinn.

Lynn lasted four years with the Chargers and was fired after going 33-30.

Here’s what was said about McVay:

McVay, 30, is a far bigger question mark. He’s the rare offensive ingenue who is prized for his acumen and known for communicating well with his players. But how much credit do coach Jay Gruden and Washington’s deep receiver group get for the well-constructed Redskins offense?

Clearly, with hindsight, we can see that a lot of what Washington did was down to McVay and very little to do with Gruden. It shouldn’t have been viewed as risky, more inspired.

Vance Joseph’s hire in Denver came in third, with Rosenthal noting: “Elway cited Joseph’s “great vision” and his leadership skills.” Those leadership skills again produced an 11-21 record and a firing after two-years. Here’s Shanahan’s blurb, in lowly fourth place:

There are red flags, however. Shanahan’s previous stop in Cleveland ended bumpily, with Shanahan asking to leave after one season under contentious circumstances.

The delay in Shanahan’s hiring will hurt him greatly in terms of putting together a staff. Chip Kelly was sunk in San Francisco partly because he was stuck with a lousy defensive roster and couldn’t find a high-quality coordinator to save it. Shanahan is the captain in gym class stuck with the last pick. Getting quality coaches to San Francisco, where he will be the fourth head coach in as many years, won’t be easy. Nothing about Shanahan’s job will be.

So there was the risk of the unknown for McVay, the risk of an abrupt departure in Cleveland of all places for Shanahan, paired with an inability to put together a highly regarded staff. They were both ranked below Lynn with Shanahan also below Joseph. They’ve since gone on to dominate the NFC West since 2017, have both appeared in multiple Super Bowls and NFC Championship games and McVay has a ring.

It feels like there’s a lesson to be learnt here. Maybe, just maybe, leadership and being the guy who can stand up in a room and deliver a great speech isn’t as important in the modern NFL as having some of those qualities but, more importantly, also having the tactical acumen offensively to outmanoeuvre opponents?

Campbell’s experience in Detroit only took off when he got the right offensive coordinator. What happens when he loses Ben Johnson? Does he end up being Dan Quinn in Atlanta minus Kyle Shanahan? This is the issue John Schneider talked about last week. You can eliminate this problem by hiring a great offensive play-caller to run your team and finding the tough-guy leadership elsewhere, such as your coordinators or assistants.

Check out my guest appearance on the HawksZone Rundown this week:

Tom Pelissero is reporting that the Seahawks have arranged second interviews with Ejiro Evero, Patrick Graham, Mike Kafka, Raheem Morris and Dan Quinn. These will all be in person next week.

On the surface it’s an underwhelming group but there are a few things that need to be pointed out.

Firstly, Pelissero adds, “There likely will be others too. A thorough process.” Thus, this doesn’t appear to be the final short-list. Relax, breathe. Of the initial batch, only Frank Smith is absent of the names they originally spoke to.

They reportedly only initially interviewed Bobby Slowik today, so it’s plausible they simply haven’t had an opportunity yet to digest that conversation and arrange a second interview. Ben Johnson, who they spoke to yesterday, is still coaching in the playoffs. He wouldn’t even be available to fly to Seattle this week with the Lions preparing for the NFC Championship game. They’d have to wait until the week after next to meet with him in person, regardless of the result between San Francisco and Detroit.

The Seahawks don’t need to announce any planned interview with Mike Vrabel. As a free agent, he can come to Seattle at any point. They’re reportedly interested in a meeting, even though no date has been revealed.

It’s possible to potentially rule out one candidate. It’s never been reported that Mike Macdonald was sent an interview request. This is telling. Sunday was the deadline to interview candidates virtually, enabling teams to setup second interviews during Super Bowl bye week if the coach was still involved in the playoffs.

This means should the Ravens win next weekend, the Seahawks wouldn’t be able to talk to MacDonald until after the Super Bowl. Surely if he was in contention, they would’ve setup an initial virtual interview before today’s deadline, allowing them to meet with him in two weeks time?

Here’s my take on Macdonald. It’s gone very quiet with him and potential NFL vacancies. Has it become known to teams that he’s being lined up to replace Jim Harbaugh at Michigan? He was the defensive coordinator there in 2021. The Wolverines are going to need a coach if/when Harbaugh bolts for the NFL.

His name hasn’t been connected to any NFL teams for a while now. Do they know something? Or, perhaps he has removed his name from contention for another reason? Either he doesn’t feel ready, or maybe the Ravens are setting up a plan for him to replace John Harbaugh one day? After all, there was a succession plan for GM Eric DeCosta to replace Ozzie Newsome.

Either way, it doesn’t look like Macdonald is bound for Seattle, even for an interview let alone to replace Pete Carroll. Instead it seems like the next Head Coach will come from the list of Evero, Graham, Kafka, Morris, Quinn, Johnson, Slowik or Vrabel.

Personally, my vote would be to still go all-out to lure Johnson to Seattle — even with all the talk connecting him to the Washington Commanders. Always compete, right? They have to try and pull out all the stops. The only problem is, how long can you wait? Teams are starting to make hires now and they get the advantage in terms of being able to go and recruit staff. The longer you wait, the more likely you are to miss out on staff hires. A case in point, by making the Super Bowl last season, the Eagles lost both coordinators late in the process. Many of their favoured replacements, such as Vic Fangio, had gone elsewhere. They had to settle, with disastrous consequences. If they think Johnson is set for the Commanders, you can’t wait around just to miss out. None of the other candidates are still involved in the playoffs and can be hired at any point.

Johnson has a track record of driving major production out of Detroit’s skill players. The Seahawks, rightly or wrongly, have invested in receivers and running backs, plus a pass-blocking left tackle. The success Johnson is having in Detroit is transferable based on personnel. Plus, the Lions’ two starting guards are both free agents and could be signed to bolster the O-line.

Yesterday’s performance by Houston in Baltimore doesn’t change my thinking about Slowik as an alternative. Did people really expect anything else? Baltimore — a heavy home favourite, the best team in the NFL, with the MVP at quarterback, comfortably handling an upstart, young, overachieving team with a rookie QB and first-time Head Coach? This isn’t exactly Dan Quinn and the Cowboys laying an egg against the Packers.

Despite the great pitch from Les Snead for Raheem Morris (perhaps partly inspired by the fact the Rams will get draft compensation if he departs) I’m not sold on what he’d bring to Seattle. He’s clearly charismatic and well liked but he led the 22nd ranked defense this year (per DVOA) despite having Aaron Donald. Rams fans are hardly singing his praises as a coordinator.

Kafka, Evero and Graham would be head-scratchers for Schneider’s career-defining move. Quinn still feels dangerously plausible given how often it’s been touted that he was lined up to one day replace Carroll. To me that would be such an underwhelming hire. It’d remind me of this article posted on NFL.com in 2017 ranking the coaching hires. Anthony Lynn was ranked first, ahead of Sean McVay (#2) and Kyle Shanahan (#4) because of his prior experience, staff building and leadership. Meanwhile, McVay and Shanahan were labelled risky. This is all sounds very familiar.

I can’t shake Quinn’s spell in Atlanta, where he was 24-29 without Shanahan, was fired after an 0-5 start to the 2020 season and was regularly criticised for blowing big leads and not holding players accountable for consistently poor play. His success as a coach feels tied to three things — the LOB, Shanahan and Micah Parsons. I don’t see him usurping Shanahan or McVay and, as we’ve seen in the last week, Shanahan seems to thrive on seeing his old boss beaten.

Vrabel wouldn’t feel as underwhelming as Quinn. His time in Tennessee arguably ended due to mitigating circumstances. When your GM trades away A.J. Brown, gets fired for it, then the interim GM looks after the next draft, but doesn’t get the job full-time, then another guy takes over, plus Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry just get old — none of this is conducive with success. I think Vrabel could be interesting — and it’d be different, which is a good thing — but so much would depend on who’s calling plays offensively. He seems to have a good reputation among those in the league.

I wonder if there’s an ulterior motive to some of the announced list of second interviews. We’ve talked about this before. Evero, Graham, Kafka. Is it possible that, while taking those candidacies seriously, the Seahawks are conscious that all three could be available as potential coordinators and/or assistant Head Coaches? You bring them in, create a connection, sell the franchise. The Panthers and Raiders may allow their defensive coordinators to depart as they transition to new regimes, while the Giants have become so toxic, it might be difficult for them to reject a request from Kafka to move on.

If nothing else, it’s an interesting thought. Pairing either of Evero or Graham with a younger offensive mind at Head Coach would be a coup, if it’s at all possible. Asking Kafka to bring an Andy Reid-style offense to Seattle to go with a Vrabel type would also have some appeal. I get the sense Schneider is itching to draft a quarterback, either this year or next, and having someone on staff with experience of developing a QB will be vital.

Nevertheless, many Seahawks fans will be hoping the team expands the reported list quickly. It’s not exactly a group that screams ‘brave new exciting era’.