Month: November 2024 (Page 1 of 3)

Some thoughts on one of the big off-season talking points for the Seahawks

November 28, 2024 /

One way or another something has to give in the off-season. The Seahawks are $14.5m in the red in terms of effective cap space per Overthecap.com and will need to free-up a significant amount of money. There are some obvious ways to do this. Tyler Lockett is not going to be getting a $30.8m cap hit next season. Moving on saves $17m. Cutting Noah Fant creates $9m. Chipping away at the roster with several moves, though, will only create holes that need to be filled.

There are two big decisions that will have the most impact on Seattle’s cap space.

D.K. Metcalf has one year left on his deal. He is going to be extended or traded in the off-season, it’s as simple as that. I don’t think the Seahawks have any intention of trading him and suspect they’ll get something done. I get the sense they view Metcalf as a rare physical talent with good production and will not want to part ways, with the saving on Lockett justifying a new deal for D.K. Realistically they can cut his 2025 cap hit in half with an extension, saving about $15m.

Geno Smith is the other big call. His cap hit is currently $38.5m. That will grow by $2m when he ticks off any of the following escalators:

— Passing Yards (4,282)
— Passing Touchdowns (30)
— Completion % (69.755)
— Passer Rating (100.874)
— Wins (10) or a Playoff Berth

On his current pace, he is projected to record 4,690 passing yards. The Seahawks are also leading the NFC West. Winning the division will mean he hits the playoff escalator. His completion percentage is currently 69.1%, so that is in play. He’s only projected to record 19 touchdowns and his passer rating is only 88.5.

Therefore, it’s almost certain he’ll reach at least one escalator, taking his cap hit to $40.5m. It’s not improbable he’ll reach two more, pushing his deal to $44.5m and putting Seattle further in the red (20.5m).

If he does hit the three escalators, his 2025 cap-hit would be eighth highest among quarterbacks, above Lamar Jackson ($43.6m) and Josh Allen ($43.2m) while being just below Joe Burrow ($46.3m).

It’s far from the worst situation — Cleveland owes Deshaun Watson $72.09m next year and the Saints have Derek Carr on a $51.4m cap hit. I would suggest, however, that the Seahawks will not be giving Smith $38-44m in 2025. They will either extend his contract or move on and seek an alternative — if for no other reason than simply needing to create cap space.

It’s extremely plausible they will extend Smith’s deal, possibly by adding two more years, allowing them the flexibility to lower his 2025 cap hit. This would enable the Seahawks to secure their short-term future at quarterback, given Smith is now 34-years-old. They would likely structure the contract the same way they did with his last deal signed in 2023, providing easy annual outs for the team and incentives for Smith to succeed.

This would also give the Seahawks more time to start drafting and developing future successors. There’s no point pretending Smith’s age isn’t a factor. If they extend his deal, they’ll be looking for players they can groom for the future.

The problem might be Smith’s willingness to negotiate. His representatives will no doubt go to the Seahawks and point to Kirk Cousins’ $45m a year contract in Atlanta with $90m guaranteed. If they set the bar that high, the Seahawks are probably going to scoff at the proposal. Cousins got that deal as a free agent, with the ability to leverage different parties. He didn’t get that contract from the Vikings the year prior. They let him test the market. Thus, it’s not a comparable situation.

Really it’s no different than Damien Lewis’ free agent experience. He was never getting a big contract after three years with the Seahawks but on the open market? He won big by being able to test the market.

The issue teams face when a player is still contracted is you end up bidding against yourself. When Smith was a free agent last year, he was able to establish his market before agreeing terms on what ended up being a team-friendly contract. You’d imagine Smith will aim high in any negotiation this off-season, knowing he has a decent contractual situation for 2025 already secured.

Seattle’s biggest leverage play isn’t ideal. It’s the threat of trading him or cutting him. In that situation he’d have to weigh-up potentially going to an undesirable new team via trade or being in a situation where his market is cold again. That could nudge both parties to compromise on a new deal but it’d be quite an aggressive negotiating tactic.

Smith also has a hand to play. His people could say, ‘this is what we want, match it or we’ll play out the year’. That would be wise if he hits his escalators and the Seahawks succeed in making the playoffs. In that situation, Seattle would be left having to face the prospect of moving him on or accepting the situation (which would put them in a tricky financial position with the cap, making an extension far more appealing but ceding massive leverage in talks).

My guess is both parties should be able to find some common ground here. Smith genuinely seems to enjoy being in Seattle and the franchise has been good for him too.

However, the bigger question might be — is this what John Schneider wants?

That’s where Sam Darnold comes to mind.

Let me be clear before anyone bites my head off — I am not arguing that Darnold is better than Smith, or that the Seahawks should pursue Darnold and get rid of their current starter. This is something I’ve been considering writing about and I thought I’d look at the situation. So chill.

There’s been a lot of talk over the years about Schneider’s interest in Josh Allen back in 2018. He went to the Wyoming pro-day and people have reported he tried to trade up to the #1 pick that year with the aim of acquiring Allen.

It’s unclear whether he had much interest in Darnold but Schneider did attend his pro-day too, per Brady Henderson. I’m just saying — but maybe we’ve heard a lot about Schneider’s interest in Allen and not so much about interest in Darnold because one player has been a roaring success and until recently, the other hasn’t.

There was a bit of talk about the Seahawks trading for Darnold in 2021, when the Russell Wilson trade stuff was in its first flush. However, those reports mainly connected Pete Carroll with interest in the quarterback. Perhaps it’s something that was considered given this was around the time that Adam Schefter was reporting Wilson’s four-team trade wish-list.

Darnold has turned his career around in Minnesota, leading the team to a 9-2 record this season. If the Seahawks parted with Smith — either by trading or cutting him — they would save between $25-31m depending on the contract escalators.

It’s likely Darnold will be an in-demand free agent. However, I think his contract potential is only on a par with Baker Mayfield.

Here’s Mayfield’s deal structure:

2024 cap hit — $6.9m
2025 cap hit — $35.7m
2026 cap hit — $45.7m (can save $28.4m with an out this year)

In essence, the Buccaneers are only committed to Mayfield this year and next. They can get out of the deal in 2026 easily. Whether it’s with Smith or Darnold, the Seahawks will almost certainly want this kind of flexibility from next season.

Perhaps Smith would be willing to take the Mayfield contract? However, if he gets his deal beyond $40m for 2025 with the escalators, why would he extend his contract and not reach that amount again until 2026, with an out for the team before he gets there, unless the Seahawks pump major guarantees into the contract (which they may not wish to do)?

Ultimately if the Seahawks part with Smith, save between $25-31m in cap space, then only take on a $7m cap hit for Darnold in 2025, that’s a considerable saving while gaining the structure that they might want for the short-term future.

So what about Darnold? Is he only a one-hit wonder because he’s working with QB guru Kevin O’Connell in Minnesota? Quite possibly. However, let’s also remember he started his career with the hapless New York Jets. Then he was traded to the equally awful Carolina Panthers for a package including a second round pick. This was never the environment for success and after leaving Carolina, he decided to take stock of his career.

He spent a year as Brock Purdy’s backup in San Francisco in 2023 and is now excelling as a starter with Minnesota under O’Connell. His career might be more a reflection of environment than purely the impact of Minnesota’s coaching. Maybe if he’d started working with O’Connell and Kyle Shanahan, rather than working through two of the NFL’s worst run franchises, his career would’ve been totally different?

Let’s compare Smith and Darnold based on this season.

Their touchdown/interception ratios are starkly different. Darnold’s is 21/10 while Smith’s is 12/12. Many people would attribute this to Seattle’s terrible O-line so let’s dig a bit deeper there.

Smith has faced 177 total pressures this season compared to Darnold’s 140. They’re both in the top-10 in this category. Smith has been sacked 37 times compared to Darnold’s 31. Again, both marks are near the top.

PFF says Smith is responsible for nine of his pressures, with Darnold responsible for 14. Smith is responsible for four sacks compared to Darnold’s six. Smith has four self-inflicted hurries compared to Darnold’s five. Overall, fairly similar.

Now let’s look at where the pressure percentage of blame lies within both O-lines.

Here’s Minnesota’s positional breakdown:

LT — 23.9%
LG — 17.9%
C — 19.7%
RG — 25.6%
RT — 7.7%

Here’s Seattle’s:

LT — 21.8%
LG — 16.3%
C — 8.2%
RG — 21.8%
RT — 38.1%

Essentially what this says is the Seahawks have been a shambles at right tackle. With Abe Lucas back on the field, it’ll be interesting to see if Smith can find his best form the rest of the way.

Darnold has thrown 22 ‘big time throws’ this year compared to Smith’s 20. However, Smith only has 12 ‘turnover worthy plays’ compared to Darnold’s 17.

Darnold’s PFF grade is an 81.9 (ranked 9th). Smith’s is an 81.0 (ranked 12th).

Overall they’re both quite similar across the board. The big difference of course is age. Darnold turns 28 next June, with Smith turning 35 next October. A seven-year difference isn’t insignificant.

It really comes down to how much you want to invest in Darnold being a player who just needed a non-shambolic environment, instead of thinking he’s only succeeding because of his Head Coach. If he was able to perform at his 2024 level for the next few years, he’d be an excellent investment for any team without a long-term starter who isn’t expecting to pick in the top-10 any time soon.

With Smith there’s obviously a ‘better the devil you know’ aspect and he’s clearly respected in Seattle. That counts for something. Yet since his red-hot start in 2022 came to an end in Munich, he has a 47/29 TD/INT ratio and Seattle’s record with Smith as a starter is 17-17. Not that these statistics reflect only the performance of Smith (see: O-line) but they’re also the kind of numbers that will give a GM inclined to make a change the excuse to do so.

That’s what it comes back to. How committed is Schneider to Smith? After the non-committal press-conferences early in the year, the Adam Schefter quid-pro-quo trade tweet, the ‘he’s the starter until he isn’t’ quote. If Schneider believes someone like Darnold can provide a younger player who can perform, at worst, at a similar level, while providing financial relief in 2025, will he consider that option?

If I had to make a prediction today, I think the Seahawks are more likely to find common ground with their existing starter on a short-term extension — with Smith continuing in the role of Alex Smith in Kansas City while the team searches for a young heir-apparent who can be developed behind the scenes. I’ve always had the sense, though, that Schneider isn’t totally convinced by Smith and he might see Darnold as a shot worth taking. It will be fascinating how they approach this situation in a few weeks’ time.

The thing that will do Smith’s case the power of good will be to find his best form, as he did towards the end of last season, leading the team to the playoffs and then getting at least one post-season win. That would change the situation completely.

NFL Draft video with Curtis Allen and scouting notes for this week

November 27, 2024 /

In the video below Curtis Allen and I go through the 2025 draft class position-by-position, reviewing options and scenarios for the Seahawks. Draft notes for this week are underneath.

Draft notes from the weekend

Quinn Ewers vs Kentucky

Texas have developed a reputation for being quite an up-and-down team. Against Georgia they started badly and righted the ship (but had already dug themselves too big a hole). Against Florida they blew the Gators away before giving up some cheap points in the second half. Against Kentucky they looked great in the first half and fell away in the second.

There were numerous reasons for it. Ewers limped off the field at half-time after a defensive lineman landed on his right leg during a tackle. He was clearly hobbled, lost mobility and suffered in the second half as a consequence. Everything else collapsed too. The running backs fumbled. They muffed a punt and were lucky to get it back. It became messy.

Coming into the season the concerns about Ewers were consistency and health. I’m afraid these are still two big concerns. As soon as he picked up the abdominal injury early in the season he went from looking like a high first round talent to a mid-rounder. Even though he returned to the field, he hasn’t been healthy. Anyone can see that. Now he has a bad right ankle.

Credit to him for trying to play through all this, knowing it’s his final chance to showcase his talent in college. But as a NFL decision maker you’ll inevitably be left wondering — can he stay healthy? Is he going to be banged up all the time? Will his performance suffer as soon as he is?

Early in the game against Kentucky he was superb. He converted a 3rd and 11 throwing with anticipation. Then on a 4th and goal he created time in the pocket with his feet, waited for the tight end Gunner Helm to uncover and found him in the end zone. Ewers showed great poise and execution on the play and it was a great throw from an awkward angle.

After that we saw a brilliant layered anticipation touch pass with nine minutes left in the first half, on a drive that ended with points. The third touchdown drive saw an excellent red zone pass with touch, perfectly thrown to Helm — giving him a chance to go and get his second score:

The only downside in the first half was a missed wide-open crossing route before half-time meaning Texas had to settle for a late field goal. He didn’t come off his primary read and it was a blown opportunity. Other than that — a very effective first half.

His injury changed things. I still think the potential of Ewers is clear and evident in terms of arm talent. There are flashes of Aaron Rodgers in his arm and release. It is difficult, however, to say where NFL teams might feel comfortable taking him. I don’t think he’s a player who you draft to start right away. He does feel like the kind of player Green Bay would draft to develop, therefore I appreciate the Seahawks might feel the same way.

Apart from Ewers, I was really impressed with Texas center Jake Majors again. To me he’s everything you want in a center. On one key play on 3rd and 1 he subtly moved Deone Walker out of the way for a first down run with 7:30 to go in the game. I love the way he reached up to the second level and moved people off the LOS all night. He did have one mishap on a play that required him to pull across and block a penetrating defensive lineman and he didn’t get across in time but this isn’t a frequent play you demand of your center. Majors is really good — and a player with a bright NFL future.

Ole Miss vs Florida

The Ole Miss defensive tackle Walter Nolen has promised much but I’ve been left wanting more from him in games this season. Against Florida he was virtually unstoppable. He showed a great combination of quickness and burst to disrupt, registering four pressures, two sacks and a batted pass. He’s well sized to play three technique and while I doubt he comes into the league and is a consistent impact player, he certainly has the physical skill to be a decent rotational interior defender who can develop a broader role in time.

My main focus in the game though was quarterback Jackson Dart. I’ve been confused this season by the analysis of draft media, wondering what they’re seeing with certain players. Dart receiving first and second round predictions by some was baffling. He lacks the big arm, plays in a user-friendly offense and really has had one big game all year against Georgia — a contest where the Bulldogs were decidedly poor. For the season he has 27 total touchdowns and six interceptions. Last season he finished with 31 touchdowns and five picks. Considering his last game (unless he plays in a middling Bowl game) is against lowly Mississippi State, he might eclipse those numbers. Yet huge things were expected of Ole Miss this year and they haven’t delivered. There’s been no big step forward by the quarterback.

Against Florida it was what you’d expect from Lane Kiffin’s scheme — a lot of well structured completions and rhythm. Yet in the second half everything fell apart. They only scored three points after half-time against a Florida team that was blown away by Texas 49-17 two weeks ago. Dart, with two drives to get a game-tying touchdown, ended both with lousy interceptions. On the final back-breaking pick, it was already a second chance because another interception was called back on review.

For me he’s a day three quarterback. I don’t see him as a lofty high pick.

Kurtis Rourke vs Will Howard

I think Howard’s last three games have been his best. I was a fan when he was at Kansas State and thought he was a very useful mid-rounder and that going to Ohio State could really elevate his stock, as we’ve seen from other experienced quarterbacks in recent years. It hasn’t really happened — I don’t think his stock has changed much at all. But the last three games have been better with more consistency.

He was able to turn a 3rd and 35 into a conversion in the first quarter. On the first play he scrambled to his right to extend then threw a nice touch pass over two defenders to the right sideline for approximately 25 yards. On 4th and 10 he dropped from the gun, was hit as he threw and still delivered a pass over the defender to the sideline. He had to get the ball out quickly due to the pressure and he delivered nicely.

Overall he adjusted his arm angles well, moved around to create, showed a good arm and was able to fit the ball into tight windows. He does take some snaps under center. His interception should’ve been caught by the receiver and was bobbled into the air and picked off after the deflection. He’s big and can be a strong runner. After the game he spoke well and I enjoyed the little piss take that was caught on camera at the expense of Indiana’s outspoken coach Curt Cignetti. Quarterbacks need to have a little bit of bite and personality to them.

I’m not sure whether Howard will ever be a NFL starter but there’s something here to work with. He has the tools. If the Seahawks don’t take a quarterback early, he at least will provide a toolsy player to work with and try to develop in a draft range where they might want to add a QB.

Rourke started well. He had a great throw over the middle for a 3rd and 9 conversion early on, fitting the ball over one defender and in front of another. There was great zip on the pass, accuracy and timing — it was a NFL throw. He exploited a soft zone shortly after to convert a 3rd and 6 in the same sequence. This all culminated in an opening drive TD.

Looking at his final stat sheet I didn’t expect to be anything but underwhelmed but in fairness, Rourke had no chance in this game. He was sacked five times and pressured seven times. He suffered two drops. He didn’t throw a turnover worthy play in the game. He played well early, two special teams blunders blew the game open and then Indiana were out of rhythm. They schemed their runs well but couldn’t scheme for the passing game to work around the disadvantages up front, nor did they handle blitzing well.

The slight concern is I do think it speaks to Rourke’s lack of star power. Some QB’s can elevate their teams against the odds and Rourke simply isn’t that type. He’s not a big time athlete, capable of making it happen when everything else isn’t functioning. But neither should this game determine he’s no good or seriously impact his stock. He had no supporting cast and stood little chance of success once the game escalated either side of half-time. Rourke has a collection of impressive throws this season. He’s not a high pick but he’s certainly intriguing enough to consider at the start of day three.

Josaiah Stewart continues to shine

I’ll keep saying it — this is a guy to keep an eye on. Wink Martindale loves him. Martindale mentored Mike Macdonald. You can easily see him fitting into Seattle’s pass rush rotation. He’s such a dynamic edge rusher and has shown he can take over games.

He had two sacks at the weekend against Northwestern. The first isn’t a particularly great bend-and-straighten but his effort to fight through the block and finish is evident:

Stewart bullies the right tackle into the backfield on the second sack:

We can all embrace the need to fix the offensive line in Seattle but when you think back to the early days of the LOB era — they drafted Bruce Irvin and Bobby Wagner in 2012, then signed Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett in 2013. It’s possible the Seahawks will continue to build up their defense with more talent over the next couple of years.

Only Marshall’s impressive edge rusher Mike Green has a better PFF grade than Stewart this year. He currently has eight sacks, 33 pressures, 18 QB hurries and seven QB hits. His pass rush win percentage (24.7%) continues to lead the NCAA. I think Stewart and Green (21.6% win percentage) could both have some appeal if the Seahawks add to their pass rush in the off-season.

Devin Neal shines against Colorado

What a performance by the Kansas running back. I immediately watched three more of his games after witnessing this display. He reminds me a lot of Rashaad Penny at San Diego State with his frame and shifty ability to accelerate.

His change of direction was unbelievable at times:

He has the build to get the tough yards inside but look at the quickness he shows here to bounce to the edge, turn upfield and make an explosive play:

The best backs exhibit patience in the backfield, the game slows for them and they use explosive cuts and subtle shifts of the body to create openings. Neal definitely showed that against Colorado:

He finished the game with 207 yards on 37 carries, scoring three touchdowns as a runner. He added 80 receiving yards on four catches plus another score. He has 740 yards after contact for the season — 16th most in the NCAA. He’s not in the Ashton Jeanty, Kaleb Johnson realm there. There’s still a lot to like though and it’s very easy to imagine him being featured in the NFL. His acceleration, thick frame, contact balance and ability to work to the edge then cut upfield will carry plenty of appeal for pro teams.

Final notes

— Harold Fannin Jr had another big game against Ball State, registering nine catches, 125 yards and a touchdown. He’s a good combine away from being a top-45 lock:

— Jalen Milroe started with big passing plays against Oklahoma but was awful the rest of the way. He made huge mistakes on turnovers. The Sooners took away the run and he couldn’t win as a passer. He’s not taken the steps many claim as a pocket passer and remains an outstanding athlete but not an outstanding QB. He can run around and make things happen and he has the arm strength to make eye-catching plays. But he’s limited in what he can do in the pocket, really limited.

— LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier was sensational again, this time against Vanderbilt. Where would LSU be without him? He continues to make legit NFL throws every week and the truth is, even in the recent loss to Florida, he’s played very well. Should he really go back to LSU? For me he’s very much in the QB1 mix. He will go in the first round if he declares. Is another year with Brian Kelly that appealing? Only Shedeur Sanders has the capability of going before him and Nussmeier is the antithesis of all the baggage that comes with Shedeur and his father.

Why Ryan Grubb’s future might be in question unless Seattle’s running game improves

November 26, 2024 /

On the 30th October 2011, I travelled to Seattle from Vancouver to watch the Seahawks play the Bengals. They lost 34-12. It left the Seahawks with a 2-5 record and the future appeared pretty bleak. People were talking about ‘suck for (Andrew) Luck’. There was doubt about Pete Carroll, now one-and-a-half seasons into his NFL return. Where was this going?

A week later came the turning point. They went to Dallas to play the Cowboys, who had playoff ambitions. They lost 23-13 but the defense stepped up its game. They were tougher and harder to play against. An encouraging sign.

The following week they beat the Ravens (where this happened). Then they hammered the Rams. They blew a game against Washington before returning to form against the expensively acquired Eagles — destroying Howie Roseman’s ‘dream team’ roster in Prime Time. Big wins followed against the Rams (again) and Bears before two close losses ended the season on a slight dampener.

Either way, by the time the 2011 season concluded the Seahawks had established themselves as a developing force. The LOB era was coming together. They were a nightmare to play against. The foundations were there for future success.

I don’t think the 2024 group are quite at that stage yet — but it’s carrying a similar vibe. This is now three successive strong defensive performances. They may still drop the odd frustrating game between now and week 18, as they did against the Rams before the bye. But if the defense can continue playing at this level, it will provide similar hope for the future that the Seahawks can have another go at being a contender.

There are some things, though, that could hold them back.

Firstly — as important as the defense was during that 2011 season, Marshawn Lynch was arguably even more critical to their blossoming success. In Lynch, the Seahawks had a legit star. From the Dallas game until the end of the season — nine games in total — he ran for 941 yards and scored 10 total touchdowns.

The Seahawks couldn’t be further away from that level of running performance currently.

On Sunday against the Cardinals, every called run was a headache to watch. The O-line created no push up front. It felt like Ken Walker was exerting a ton of energy just to find a way back to the line of scrimmage. By the end the Seahawks had virtually given up running the ball — choosing to try and close out the game with Geno Smith.

It said it all that in a one-score game in the fourth quarter, in the rain, on the next series after Smith had thrown an ugly interception in the red zone, they came out throwing and nearly threw another back-breaking pick. Smith’s pass was inaccurate and luckily the Arizona player just couldn’t grab the ball before it hit the turf. What a let off.

Mark Sanchez on the commentary was practically yelling down his microphone telling them to run instead. What were they doing?

This is the thing holding back the Seahawks from generating even more excitement. In 2011 it would’ve been a classic ‘Beat Mode’ moment. A heavy dose of Lynch to finish off the contest, grinding out a long drive. The Seahawks don’t lack talent at running back but their total inability to run at any kind of level is holding them back. It didn’t cost them against Arizona but it could in future weeks.

I imagine this really bothers Mike Macdonald, a Harbaugh protégé. While he seems perfectly mild-mannered during interviews, the Brady Henderson article a few weeks ago uncovered an edge to Seattle’s Head Coach that isn’t outwardly expressed. He is delivering the kind of defense we’ve been waiting years to see — but the offense isn’t currently playing in a way to complement it.

If I had to guess, Macdonald probably feels like he won’t truly have delivered his vision for this team until the defense and running game go hand-in-hand. While the defense is progressing nicely, the running game is regressing at the same rate.

When you bring up the struggling run game, most people point to the O-line — which is fair enough. It was bad again against Arizona. It’s been bad all year. It needs major work.

Every single lineman received a bad run-blocking grade per PFF:

Olu Oluwatimi — 58.8
Christian Haynes — 58.2
Abe Lucas — 50.3
Charles Cross — 49.8
Laken Tomlinson — 40.1

However, this isn’t a problem exclusive to the Seahawks. A lot of teams have issues blocking. A lot of those teams still find ways to run the ball a lot more effectively than the Seahawks.

This tweet from Brock Huard was scathing in the review of Ryan Grubb’s inability to work out solutions to be able to find any semblance of running effectiveness — especially against a team in Arizona giving up 121.8 rushing yards per game (the Seahawks managed just 65 yards):

When I’ve discussed Grubb recently there’s been a lot of sympathetic replies in the direction of Seattle’s OC. Again, the O-line is a huge problem. We can all see that. Yet as Huard notes above, why are they so incapable of working around this to produce any kind of ground success?

I do think it’ll bring Grubb’s position into question at the end of the season unless things change. The most important thing for Macdonald as a young, first-time Head Coach is to have everything aligned to create his vision. Yes, a new staff needs time. At what cost though? Wasting time? Failing to have everything connected? At the end of the season they’ll need to decide whether Grubb can produce an offense to complement Macdonald’s developing defense. At the moment, you have to wonder whether they’re philosophically aligned — and if they aren’t, a change is very likely.

You can’t have a close game like Sunday where you’re winning for the majority of the contest, in bad weather, and you have 39 throwing situations and only 22 runs by your running backs. The Seahawks are attempting 37 passes per game, fifth most in the NFL. Their 22.6 rushing attempts per game are fifth fewest. This is not typical for a team led by a defensive-minded coach, coming from a Ravens/Michigan background.

How much of this is necessity and how much of it is indicative of philosophy and preference? If the Seahawks add two quality offensive linemen in the off-season, will the numbers above flip in terms of run/pass ratio? Or is Ryan Grubb always going to lean towards an aggressive passing offense?

Reports earlier this year suggested Arthur Smith was slated to be Macdonald’s offensive coordinator if he got a Head Coaching gig — but Baltimore’s playoff run delayed things and he didn’t want to end up out of work, so took the Steelers job. Pittsburgh is currently running the ball 34.3 times a game, second most in the NFL. They’re passing 28.4 times a game, second fewest.

The Steelers’ O-line isn’t grading particularly well and they’ve suffered key injuries to Troy Fautanu and James Daniels. Broderick Jones (53.2) and Mason McCormick (55.9) are playing poorly according to PFF, although Dan Moore Jr (71.0), Isaac Seumalo (69.7) and Zach Frazier (77.4) are fairing better but not at a spectacular grading level. Pittsburgh’s average grade for their five offensive linemen is a 65.4. That’s the exact same average as the five players who started for Seattle against the Cardinals.

The Steelers are finding a way to produce a ground game that is ranked eighth in the league. Seattle’s is ranked 28th.

It wasn’t an ideal situation to have a Head Coach accepting a job just before the Super Bowl, when the coordinator pool was already diminished. That’s no fault of Seattle’s, it’s just the way this thing works. They clearly interviewed a few people — speaking to the likes of Eric Bienemy, Tanner Engstrand and Grubb and seemingly trying to see if they could get Mike Kafka out of the Giants. Chip Kelly’s name was mentioned too. Going with Grubb, who’d been part of an inspired effort at the University of Washington, was a decent roll of the dice.

However, it might simply be that he isn’t going to be able to align an offense to match Macdonald’s vision. We’ll see what happens over the next few weeks. If the running game continues to stumble like it is at the moment, I suspect we might see a change. The Seahawks gig could be attractive too — you’d have full control of the offense and getting things right could lead to big opportunities in the future.

Pete Carroll accepted after the 2010 season that Jeremy Bates wasn’t aligned to his vision for the team and he made a change — bringing in Tom Cable and Darrell Bevell as co-coordinators. Macdonald might make a similar change.

Could they target a fired Head Coach (Doug Pederson? Brian Daboll?), go back to their original list (Mike Kafka? Tanner Engstrand? Chip Kelly?) or review new names? Scottie Montgomery is Associate Head Coach and looks after the running backs in Detroit. They’re doing pretty well. Marcus Brady is Jim Harbaugh’s passing-game coordinator in LA. Will Klint Kubiak be available, New Orleans’ somewhat highly rated offensive coordinator? Is Josh McCown ready for an opportunity after spending a year with Kevin O’Connell in Minnesota? Do they go internal with someone like Jake Peetz for the sake of familiarity?

Or do they retain faith in Grubb working this out and instead focus on fixing the offensive line? Is that merely enough?

Let’s not forget, the Seahawks didn’t have a great O-line in 2011 but they ran effectively. In the 2012 off-season, they were able to use their first two draft picks on Bruce Irvin and Bobby Wagner to take the defense to another level. It’d be beneficial not to be handcuffed to O-line draft picks and have the flexibility to keep adding to the defense if they can — either by finding veteran answers in free agency or by having a staff that can get more juice out of the players they already have (although I still think there are worthy O-liners in the 2025 class who could and should be targeted).

I think a few coaching tweaks will happen in the off-season regardless of Grubb’s future. That should be expected now that Macdonald and John Schneider have had a year to assess. At the end of the year, though, short of a really good run to finish the season, I think the future of the offensive coordinator will be one of the top three storylines — along with how they address the offensive line and what they do with the contract situations involving D.K. Metcalf and Geno Smith.

Instant reaction: Seahawks defense dominates Cardinals in key NFC West win

November 24, 2024 /

This is the defense we’ve been waiting for years to see.

Physical, smothering, capable of shutting down NFC West foes. It’s been a three-week run that makes you believe this unit is heading in the right direction.

Clearly shifting out Jerome Baker and Tyrel Dodson has had a major impact. Aside from that though, everything just feels far more connected.

In a game like this it would’ve been easy to commit to taking away the inside run with James Conner, leaving Kyler Murray opportunities to break contain and run for a ton of yards. They were able to restrict and limit Murray while also making Conner a non-factor in the game. That’s impressive.

Tre McBride collected yards but Arizona never felt truly threatening. Meanwhile, the pass-rush created havoc up front. This was about as comprehensive and impressive performance as we’ve seen in years by the defense.

Leonard Williams led the way with an incredible effort. How often do you see a defensive linemen with his size recording 2.5 sacks, three TFL’s, a pass deflection and four quarterback hits? It’s the best individual display by a Seahawks defender since Jadeveon Clowney wrecked the 49ers in 2019.

Williams had a sack rushing the edge, he consistently shot gaps in the interior and he overpowered Arizona’s guards and center multiple times.

Devon Witherspoon had a strong outing — including the key play to force Murray to throw an interception to Coby Bryant leading to a pick-six. Julian Love was excellent. The linebackers again played a solid, efficient game.

This is a defense you can believe in again and look forward to watching. Kudos to the team for making the necessary changes to turn the corner. They’ve gone from hopeless to highly effective during the season. If they keep this up, they’ll have a chance to win the NFC West.

As the defense progresses though, the offense sadly is regressing. It was painful watching the Seahawks try to run the ball today. There’s no movement up front. Geno Smith seemed to mix between having no time to throw thanks to the O-line or occasionally he took too long to get the ball out. Either way it led to pressure. Smith’s interception was a big error that almost turned the game — and there’s no getting away from the fact that he continues to mix between the sublime and the ridiculous in another seasons of contrasting highs and lows.

The big positive was Jaxon Smith-Njigba who continues to shine as he enjoys a breakout second season. It was also another good outing for Abe Lucas. Yet I can’t help but feel this offense isn’t what Macdonald wants. The O-line might be influencing a lot of their play calls but you don’t appoint a Harbaugh protégé to be throwing the ball in the rain with a handsome lead in the fourth quarter. I’m not convinced Macdonald and Ryan Grubb are that aligned right now and the offense often jumps between dysfunctional and broken and suddenly explosive and productive. You don’t need Walter Jones and Steve Hutchinson to run the ball either — and they’re not finding solutions.

Don’t just take my word for it:

Some will argue time will be a healer but I’m already starting to think Macdonald might want a different approach next year.

That’s a bigger conversation for another time. Today the defense deserves the bulk of the attention and the Seahawks will head to New York next week with an excellent chance of extending their winning run to three games.

Curtis Allen’s week twelve watch notes (vs Arizona)

November 24, 2024 /

This is a guest post by Curtis Allen

During the bye week, we talked about our Third Quarter Goals for the Seahawks. How are they doing?

Win A Division Game

Check. A slump-busting win against a rival turned the Seahawks’ season from a potential spiraling disaster into something more promising. Not to mention it banged the Niners around a bit.

Figure Out A Way to Improve the Offensive Line

Something must give with the three interior players though.  What is it?  A midnight cut?  A very public in-game benching of an underperforming player that shocks the rest of the unit into performing?

Check. The stunning retirement of Connor Williams paved the way for an outstanding start by Olu Oluwatimi. An 80 PFF grade was just what the Seahawks needed.

As was a return to the game by Abe Lucas. He played the bulk of the snaps and was effective in his first game back. Even better, he appears to be ready to assume the position full-time from here on out.

It was an impressive display. But the season has not turned just yet. One goal remains.

Put Together Back-to-Back Solid Efforts

Now this will take some work.

After a brilliant game against Atlanta, the Seahawks returned home against the Bills and were flat in a brutal loss.

A loss to the Rams that was doomed by turnovers was followed up with a gritty, physical win in San Francisco.

The organization that has been so inconsistent, so dodgy for the first half of the season has a real chance to show what has been going on behind the scenes this week. Proof that they are building a cohesive team with a real vision would be more readily accepted with a win against the Cardinals today.

This game sets up very interestingly for them. Arizona has some similarities to the Falcons team the Seahawks handled in Week seven. They have a dynamic running game featuring explosive runners, they have talent at the Tight End and Wide Receiver positions and on defense they are one of the NFL’s worst at pressuring the passer.

The way the game against Atlanta played out would be a great model for this game:

— No turnovers and only five penalties

— On defense, contain the running game early and force a couple of punts – do NOT let the opponent’s running game take the pace of the game over

— On offense, mix the run and pass and build an early lead to take them out of their game

— Unleash the defense when the Cardinals get desperate and abandon the running game

Is that doable against Arizona? Yes. Washington did it against them in Week Four. They ran the ball 37 times and Jayden Daniels had a very Geno Smith-esque game, throwing 30 times with 26 completions for 233 yards. They built a 17-7 halftime lead (just like Seattle did against Atlanta) and then poured on the gas in the second half. The Cardinals were only able to get eight meaningful run snaps in the second half as the Commanders took a big lead. Kyler Murray was sacked four times and was unable to make many of his signature explosive plays.

So how does Seattle turn in that kind of game?

Contain Arizona’s Offensive Weapons

James Conner’s name is never mentioned when fans talk about the top Running Backs in the NFL. He is not among the top-10 Running Backs in attempts, yards, or touchdowns.

But believe me when I say he is the engine that makes the Cardinal offense go. How? He moves the chains.

Conner has 47 first downs so far this season on only 159 attempts. He and David Montgomery of the Lions are the most efficient runners in the NFL, gaining first downs on 29% of their rushes, far and away the top two. He is both Kyler Murray’s tone-setter and his safety valve when his targets downfield are covered.

How does he do it? With toughness and tenacity. Conner is the NFL’s leading tackle-breaker. He will not go down. You have to take him down.

Watch him shirking off tackles to get 33 yards and essentially win the game for Arizona in Week Seven:

You must have a tackling plan for Conner. Otherwise, the Cardinals will just keep giving him the ball and keep chewing the clock.

Thankfully the Seahawks have Earnest Jones and Tyrice Knight coming off extremely solid performances against Christian McCaffrey. In the past, McCaffrey had broken tackles at will against the Seahawks. Last Sunday, he could not.

Again, we are talking about consistency. Sunday was a great game against San Francisco. But the defense has to buckle their chinstraps and do it all over again this week.

Defending Conner well is a huge part of making this game a successful one for the Seahawks. Four of his five lowest-impact games this season have been Cardinals losses.

Conner keeps the Cardinal defense off the field. They are not the strength of this team at all. If he keeps eating away at the clock, opposing offenses have less time to strike.

Trey McBride has blossomed into one of the best Tight End threats in the NFL. He currently is in the top-five for many categories in his position and Arizona will use his athletic talents liberally to move the ball downfield.

Arizona deploys McBride not unlike how San Francisco does with George Kittle. He has a basic set of routes to run – your standard six yards and turn and show your number to the Quarterback kind of stuff. But he frequently is schemed open very effectively, in a ‘how did that guy get so wide open?’ kind of way.

Have a look at :32 of this video Nate Tice has put together:

McBride starts on the right side of the line, moves to his left as the whole Offensive Line does and as Kyler Murray breaks to his right in a misdirection move, watch McBride. He’s sneaking left across the defense (with his head even down not to attract attention) and then sprints into the open flat and Murray reverses course and hits him for a big gain topped off with a hurdle.

How do you defend that? By following the ‘Kittle Rules’ we have talked about in previous posts. When the offense breaks huddle, every safety and every linebacker needs to spot #85. And if he is lined up tight against the Offensive Line, the man over him absolutely cannot give him a free release. Chip him, get in his way, whatever it takes to disrupt his route. If you can do that even a little, he will not be able to get into a rhythm with Kyler Murray and that means more punts.

As for Kyler Murray — he has come full circle back to being a dynamic weapon on offense, with some fabulous plays with his arm and his feet this season. How can the Seahawks effectively defend him?

His game is always evolving. In 2020 we talked about flooding coverage and take advantage of his inaccuracy. He got more accurate.

In 2021 we talked about taking advantage of his tendency to scramble by deploying delayed blitzes.

In 2022 we diagrammed a predictable playbook the Cardinals were deploying with Murray.

So what’s the plan for 2024?

Good coverage and a real blitzing plan.

This year, Murray has been so successful with a combination of McBride and Conner, his first read is usually open. In the past, if his first read was unavailable, he would either take off running or scramble around to uncover another receiver. This year, it happens so infrequently at times he is hesitant and it has cost him.

If the Seahawks can chip McBride like we showed above, or have an eye on him at all times to show Murray he is not wide open when that sneaky scheme they like to run is called, it takes the edge off his game and forces him to make decisions.

With such good first read options, a delayed blitz will only be effective in small doses that are timed very well. That does not mean they should never blitz though.

This year, when blitzed, Murray is completing 54.4% of his throws. When facing standard sets, he is completing 74%. That disparity is too big not to take advantage of.

What I am proposing is a combination of blitzing up the middle and coaching the edge players like Boye Mafe and Derick Hall to keep contain on those plays. Do not get too far upfield, or cut too far inside, leaving a whole side of the field for Murray to escape to.

No. Let the blitz come up the middle from Ernest Jones or Devon Witherspoon and when Murray sidesteps it, the edges will be there to clean the play up.

You may also occasionally try a stunt with your four basic linemen. Watch Chris Williams force Murray out of the pocket with inside rush and DeMarcus Watson stunting around to cut off Murray’s escape lane.

With the poor pass rush ability of the Cardinal defense and the Seahawks (and especially Geno Smith) no doubt will be riding a wave of confidence coming off a big win. If the Seattle defense can pull off one or more of these containments on the Cardinal offense, it could be a very successful day.

Some Offensive Notes

— The Cardinals are #31 in the NFL on third down conversions allowed on defense, at a whopping 47.97%. In away games? Dead last, conceding 57.45%. Fifty-seven percent! The Seahawks must take advantage.

— At that rate, how are they not regularly getting blown out? They are the #9 defense in the Red Zone. The Seattle offense is #16 in Red Zone scoring. Feels like Ken Walker, AJ Barner, Zach Charbonnet and (maybe) Noah Fant will need to make their presence felt in the Red Zone to keep the pressure on the Cardinal offense.

— The Cardinals might be D.K. Metcalf’s toughest opponent. In nine games he has only two touchdowns and has not broken the 60-yard barrier in receiving yards. None of us would mind if he had a big game today.

— Arizona’s pass rush is nothing to fear. They are bottom-10 in pressure rate and sacks. They also rarely blitz, preferring to rush four and drop everyone else in coverage. Geno Smith’s challenge will likely be different this week – reading the defense and finding the passing lanes instead of running for his life. It might take a little getting used to. But once Smith gets in rhythm, watch out. Perhaps the Seahawks can assist that a bit with some short early throws.

— Quarterbacks are completing 73.9% of their passes when they line up under center against Arizona. They may have a plan to flood coverage but it would appear you can open up lanes by drawing the linebackers in with an effective running game and play-action.

— I know PFF isn’t the gold standard but look at Arizona’s interior defensive linemen with the most snaps this year and their grades — old friend L.J.Collier (46.9), Dante Stills (54.3) and Roy Lopez (51.8). I do not think there will be a better matchup for Laken, Olu and Bradford this season. Make the most of it, fellas.

Scouting notes from the last two weeks of college football

November 21, 2024 /

Texas defensive back could be on Seattle’s radar

I wasn’t even aware that Texas’ Jahdae Barron was draft eligible. What a mistake. I watched the Arkansas game at the weekend and thought, not for the first time this year, ‘this guy will be a high pick one day’. I searched his name and saw he wasn’t jut eligible, he was a Senior.

I’ve watched all of Texas’ games this year and he has consistently stood out. He is legitimately one of the most fun players to watch in college football. You can’t block him with receivers and run stretch plays to the outside or throw receiver screens. He will get off the block and hit the ball-carrier with a real punch. Barron flies around the field and plays with the intensity and aggression usually reserved for bigger linebackers. You match this with his ability in coverage, his obvious awareness on the field and his ball skills and you’re talking about a fascinating player.

You can move him around in different spots but I think his best position will ultimately be as a hybrid. He’s played 377 snaps at cornerback, 79 in the slot, 12 at free safety, 86 in the box and six on the line this season. I think some teams will compare him to Devin Witherspoon both in playing style and talent. I’m not sure he’ll end up going sixth overall but I wouldn’t be surprised if he enjoys a similar rise through the draft process.

The thing that stands out frequently is his ability to come up to the line and play the run with aggression. He’s able to get off blocks and hit. Barron only has four missed tackles all season — not bad for a 5-11, 200lbs defensive back who isn’t just lined up at outside corner. He’s very physical for his size.

He has four interceptions and five PBU’s in 2024, with ample opportunity to collect more with Texas expected to make the playoffs. You can see he plays with great instinct and football IQ to execute the scheme. He always seems to be in the right place at the right time. As a corner there are very few concerns about his transition which adds to the promise he’ll show if you want to use him in complex coverage situations, misdirect or even just play him at corner if needs be. His balls skills are excellent.

The final positive is the way he speaks and commands himself. Team mates rave about his attitude and leadership. He’s a very mature, well spoken, driven individual.

I’ve added him immediately to the horizontal board as a player I’d take in round one. I also think he could be an option for the Seahawks.

We can all agree that the offensive line should be a priority in the off-season. However, in recent years the Seahawks under John Schneider have adopted a very clear approach to the draft. They’ve stuck to their board and taken best player available. They haven’t reached for specific positions.

Look at this year. All the late buzz was about Seattle potentially drafting a cornerback in round one — Quinyon Mitchell or Terrion Arnold. The feeling was Byron Murphy wouldn’t last to the 16th pick. If he was off the board, the chatter pre-draft was that the Seahawks might go cornerback instead. After the draft Schneider even made reference to how good the two cornerbacks were.

There’s nothing to suggest they’ll deviate from this approach in 2025. As of today, I don’t think they’ll force an O-line pick early if the value doesn’t match up with their board. It’s possible a player like Alabama left guard Tyler Booker ticks a value and need box. If they see him as more of a day-two pick, like some do, they will potentially just keep drafting best player available.

In this draft class, it could be another defender. Malaki Starks will be off the board if they pick where they are currently slated to pick at #16. Barron could be a strong alternative. He’s played a lot of college football, he has excellent tape, he has A+ character, he’s physical, he’s versatile and he can be used in a number of ways by Mike Macdonald.

When I think of the type of personality the Seahawks like to draft, it’s Jahdae Barron. His interviews are all-time. Watch this and you’ll see what I mean:

For what it’s worth, he mentioned he trained with Quandre Diggs over the summer and that he grew up looking up to him. He says that he attended Texas vs West Virginia when Geno Smith was quarterback for WVU and that he ‘got Geno’s towel’ from the game.

Jahdae Barron is definitely a name to keep an eye on.

Defensive linemen also catch the eye

I’ve had another Texas player, Alfred Collins, on my radar for two seasons. Last year I started the year giving him a tentative mid-round grade but he was outplayed by Byron Murphy and T’Vondre Sweat and struggled to make an impact. The talent and upside has always been there and he’s showing it in recent weeks. His play has elevated, he looks athletic and dynamic and he’s playing with great effort. It’s always been there for Collins and he has every chance to be a day-two pick in the 2025 class.

Nebraska’s Ty Robinson is a player I finally had a chance to study last week and I really like his combination of size, power, quickness and disruptive ability. To me he looks like a player who might have a few hidden special traits that’ll emerge at the combine. It’s easy to picture him impacting the NFL and with his frame and size — don’t be surprised if he ends up being a riser in the pre-draft process.

It’s very difficult to get Marshall tape to watch Mike Green. I’ve been looking for clips for weeks and have been able to piece things together. He’s so quick off the edge and shows some dynamism as a rusher. Hopefully he goes to the Senior Bowl so we can see how he gets on in the 1v1’s. Based on the pass rush flashes he’s shown, round two feels like a very reasonable grade.

Finally, Ole Miss duo Jared Ivey and Princely Umanmielen quite often leave you wanting more. However, against Georgia they caused constant problems. A strong end to the season for both could put them in a great position to enhance their draft stock.

Bring on Ohio State vs Indiana

I can’t wait to watch Kurtis Rourke in this game. He’s an intriguing player who is quite difficult to project for the next level. Delivering a strong performance against the Buckeyes’ big-name defense will be a statement.

Plays like this against Michigan are why he’s interesting:

The player right in his face is future top-five pick Mason Graham. Rourke stands tall under pressure and lofts this ball perfectly downfield without ideal base. This is a 45-yard touch pass with a brilliant defensive lineman coming after you. Teams will notice plays like this.

Meanwhile, I thought Will Howard had one of his better performances against Northwestern — although he’s still too inconsistent and streaky to really believe he can be a factor in the NFL as a starter. Even so, this could be another opportunity, as he had against Oregon, to win a big game.

Throws like this show that he’s a very capable passer:

Howard just has this tendency to produce face-palm moments at any second, undermining the great combination of size and athleticism he has.

Garrett Nussmeier should return to LSU next year but…

I thought he played well against Florida and the blame really needs to go to the rest of his offense for a bad loss. He was pressured 20 times and sacked seven times as the offensive line laid another egg. It’s the fourth time this year he’s faced 16+ pressures in a game. There were also four dropped passes — a season high for LSU. He had a touchdown pass called back on an avoidable offensive pass interference call. Late in the game, trailing by seven points, he converted two ‘must have’ fourth downs, getting into a goal-to-go situation. Then a false start backed him up, the coordinator called a run on 2nd and 12 and gave him a near impossible conversion situation on 3rd and 12. He got no help.

Look at this throw from the game:

This is why he is so highly rated. There are so few college quarterbacks capable of delivering that play. His technical quality, accuracy, ability to handle adversity and throw with anticipation and timing is fantastic. He has thrown more NFL-level passes than any other quarterback in college football this year. Unsurprisingly, he’s also thrown some bad interceptions and made some mistakes. Let’s not forget this is his first season as a starting QB.

Having waited so long to start at LSU, we’ll see if he decides it’s time to turn pro. If he does, I think he’ll go in round one because the potential is there to be a very accomplished quarterback. However, he will really benefit from more playing time.

You want your players to play in attack mode at two positions

I mentioned this on my stream with Jeff Simmons on Tuesday. Every year I try and learn as much as I can about how people in the league scout. I’m lucky enough to be able to pick the brains of some people and when I asked about scouting centers earlier this year, I was told to look for players who shoot their hands quickly and set to be the aggressor from the snap. It’s one of the reasons I thought Olu Oluwatimi’s performance against San Francisco was so encouraging as he was most certainly playing this way on Sunday.

That said, it’s not easy to find a college center who consistently plays with this attitude. There are a lot of passive players who will absorb blocks and look to do just enough. It can be even worse at linebacker. This is another position where you want to see an attacking mindset. You want to see a prospect who can identify a play, then fly to the ball. Ideally they can work through traffic, sprint to the sideline, drop into coverage and disengage from blocks. A high degree of quickness, agility and explosion is preferable. But more than anything you want to see violence — and that comes with your approach. Not just how you connect in the tackle when a ball carrier runs into your area.

Carson Schwesinger at UCLA plays in attack mode. I watched the game against Minnesota to check on Max Brosmer and came away highly impressed with the Bruins linebacker who made his life a misery. I wanted to watch more, absorbed two other games and he is extremely impressive. He flies to fill gaps and penetrate at the line. There’s ample evidence of him dropping in coverage with ease — but he can also adjust when a quarterback steps up and tries to scramble, flying to make the tackle. He avoids blocks well with shiftiness at the POA and diagnoses plays better than any other linebacker I’ve watched so far this year, including arguably Jalon Walker.

He doesn’t appear to have any athletic limitations or stiffness. Schwesinger is a capable rusher when sent to the QB and has been able to power through blocks by running backs and tight ends. The way he dropped for his mid-range interception against Iowa is teaching tape for linebackers in that situation. He had a second pick in the game — a really athletic play plucking the football after a full dive right as it was about to hit the turf.

Testing results will be big for him but at the moment I’m giving him a tentative second round grade. He looks tailor made to be a starter in the NFL.

Quick-hitters

— Every time I watch Harold Fanin Jr I get more excited. He has a chance to be the next big-time pass-catching tight end in the league. He’s a very exciting receiving threat and if he tests well, I wouldn’t be that surprised if he sneaks into the back-end of round one in this draft class.

— Georgia left guard Dylan Fairchild looked as good as he has all year against Ole Miss and Tennessee. I like his size, mobility, ability to adjust to regain position and he can control blocks. However, you don’t see a lot of big-time power at the point of attack and you’d like to see more. I think he can get stronger but will need to at the next level to be a top player.

— Travis Hunter’s all-round performance vs Utah (a pick off a tip, a highlight-reel spectacular catch and a miraculous rushing touchdown) all but puts a bow on him being a top-two pick in this draft. I think the only person who could stop him going first overall is Mason Graham.

— Carson Beck got a lot of positive attention for his performance against Tennessee but with the exception of a couple of great throws, I still think the same issues showed up on tape. His ball placement is way off. He isn’t very accurate. He almost had another terrible interception in the red zone when trailing 17-14. I don’t think he’s rebuilding his stock and I think all this year has shown is that the Raiders got an absolute steal with Brock Bowers — a player who had no business lasting to the 13th overall pick.

— Regulars will know how much I rate Ricky White the receiver at UNLV. The fact he has now blocked four kicks this year just adds to how appealing he is. He can be a special teams ace right away and eventually work into a dynamic receiving threat.

— I was impressed with Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles against Northwestern. He’s doing a much better job letting the play develop and then attacking with decisiveness and you can see he’s settling into his position switch from safety. If he keeps playing like he did on Saturday, he has a chance to go earlier than I initially projected as a late round pick.

— Speaking of linebackers, I think Alabama’s Jihaad Campbell is playing at a level where he could easily end up in the top-25. His play just continues to grow game after game. I also had a chance to watch some more of Ole Miss’ Chris Paul Jr this week. I really like the way he works to the sideline, plays with great effort, can sift through traffic and has the attack mode I spoke about earlier. Paul Jr can also drop with relative ease and I’ve decided to give him a tentative third round grade, up from the fourth round mark I originally gave him.

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