This is a guest post by Curtis Allen
During the bye week, we talked about our Third Quarter Goals for the Seahawks. How are they doing?
Win A Division Game
Check. A slump-busting win against a rival turned the Seahawks’ season from a potential spiraling disaster into something more promising. Not to mention it banged the Niners around a bit.
Figure Out A Way to Improve the Offensive Line
Something must give with the three interior players though. What is it? A midnight cut? A very public in-game benching of an underperforming player that shocks the rest of the unit into performing?
Check. The stunning retirement of Connor Williams paved the way for an outstanding start by Olu Oluwatimi. An 80 PFF grade was just what the Seahawks needed.
As was a return to the game by Abe Lucas. He played the bulk of the snaps and was effective in his first game back. Even better, he appears to be ready to assume the position full-time from here on out.
It was an impressive display. But the season has not turned just yet. One goal remains.
Put Together Back-to-Back Solid Efforts
Now this will take some work.
After a brilliant game against Atlanta, the Seahawks returned home against the Bills and were flat in a brutal loss.
A loss to the Rams that was doomed by turnovers was followed up with a gritty, physical win in San Francisco.
The organization that has been so inconsistent, so dodgy for the first half of the season has a real chance to show what has been going on behind the scenes this week. Proof that they are building a cohesive team with a real vision would be more readily accepted with a win against the Cardinals today.
This game sets up very interestingly for them. Arizona has some similarities to the Falcons team the Seahawks handled in Week seven. They have a dynamic running game featuring explosive runners, they have talent at the Tight End and Wide Receiver positions and on defense they are one of the NFL’s worst at pressuring the passer.
The way the game against Atlanta played out would be a great model for this game:
— No turnovers and only five penalties
— On defense, contain the running game early and force a couple of punts – do NOT let the opponent’s running game take the pace of the game over
— On offense, mix the run and pass and build an early lead to take them out of their game
— Unleash the defense when the Cardinals get desperate and abandon the running game
Is that doable against Arizona? Yes. Washington did it against them in Week Four. They ran the ball 37 times and Jayden Daniels had a very Geno Smith-esque game, throwing 30 times with 26 completions for 233 yards. They built a 17-7 halftime lead (just like Seattle did against Atlanta) and then poured on the gas in the second half. The Cardinals were only able to get eight meaningful run snaps in the second half as the Commanders took a big lead. Kyler Murray was sacked four times and was unable to make many of his signature explosive plays.
So how does Seattle turn in that kind of game?
Contain Arizona’s Offensive Weapons
James Conner’s name is never mentioned when fans talk about the top Running Backs in the NFL. He is not among the top-10 Running Backs in attempts, yards, or touchdowns.
But believe me when I say he is the engine that makes the Cardinal offense go. How? He moves the chains.
Conner has 47 first downs so far this season on only 159 attempts. He and David Montgomery of the Lions are the most efficient runners in the NFL, gaining first downs on 29% of their rushes, far and away the top two. He is both Kyler Murray’s tone-setter and his safety valve when his targets downfield are covered.
How does he do it? With toughness and tenacity. Conner is the NFL’s leading tackle-breaker. He will not go down. You have to take him down.
Watch him shirking off tackles to get 33 yards and essentially win the game for Arizona in Week Seven:
James Conner with a season-saving play. Breaks two crucial tackles for a 33 yard gain to setup the game-winning field goal.
Arizona Cardinals beat the Chargers, 17-15 to move to 3-4 on the season. pic.twitter.com/GmrbwkKFLN
— Bo Brack (@BoBrack) October 22, 2024
You must have a tackling plan for Conner. Otherwise, the Cardinals will just keep giving him the ball and keep chewing the clock.
Thankfully the Seahawks have Earnest Jones and Tyrice Knight coming off extremely solid performances against Christian McCaffrey. In the past, McCaffrey had broken tackles at will against the Seahawks. Last Sunday, he could not.
Again, we are talking about consistency. Sunday was a great game against San Francisco. But the defense has to buckle their chinstraps and do it all over again this week.
Defending Conner well is a huge part of making this game a successful one for the Seahawks. Four of his five lowest-impact games this season have been Cardinals losses.
Conner keeps the Cardinal defense off the field. They are not the strength of this team at all. If he keeps eating away at the clock, opposing offenses have less time to strike.
Trey McBride has blossomed into one of the best Tight End threats in the NFL. He currently is in the top-five for many categories in his position and Arizona will use his athletic talents liberally to move the ball downfield.
Arizona deploys McBride not unlike how San Francisco does with George Kittle. He has a basic set of routes to run – your standard six yards and turn and show your number to the Quarterback kind of stuff. But he frequently is schemed open very effectively, in a ‘how did that guy get so wide open?’ kind of way.
Have a look at :32 of this video Nate Tice has put together:
Trey McBride continues to ascend to one of the best TEs in the NFL with another big day against the Dolphins. He's the complete package as a pass catcher. Hands, body control, route running, and some juice after the catch. pic.twitter.com/qfk5MKSeA9
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) October 28, 2024
McBride starts on the right side of the line, moves to his left as the whole Offensive Line does and as Kyler Murray breaks to his right in a misdirection move, watch McBride. He’s sneaking left across the defense (with his head even down not to attract attention) and then sprints into the open flat and Murray reverses course and hits him for a big gain topped off with a hurdle.
How do you defend that? By following the ‘Kittle Rules’ we have talked about in previous posts. When the offense breaks huddle, every safety and every linebacker needs to spot #85. And if he is lined up tight against the Offensive Line, the man over him absolutely cannot give him a free release. Chip him, get in his way, whatever it takes to disrupt his route. If you can do that even a little, he will not be able to get into a rhythm with Kyler Murray and that means more punts.
As for Kyler Murray — he has come full circle back to being a dynamic weapon on offense, with some fabulous plays with his arm and his feet this season. How can the Seahawks effectively defend him?
His game is always evolving. In 2020 we talked about flooding coverage and take advantage of his inaccuracy. He got more accurate.
In 2021 we talked about taking advantage of his tendency to scramble by deploying delayed blitzes.
In 2022 we diagrammed a predictable playbook the Cardinals were deploying with Murray.
So what’s the plan for 2024?
Good coverage and a real blitzing plan.
This year, Murray has been so successful with a combination of McBride and Conner, his first read is usually open. In the past, if his first read was unavailable, he would either take off running or scramble around to uncover another receiver. This year, it happens so infrequently at times he is hesitant and it has cost him.
If the Seahawks can chip McBride like we showed above, or have an eye on him at all times to show Murray he is not wide open when that sneaky scheme they like to run is called, it takes the edge off his game and forces him to make decisions.
With such good first read options, a delayed blitz will only be effective in small doses that are timed very well. That does not mean they should never blitz though.
This year, when blitzed, Murray is completing 54.4% of his throws. When facing standard sets, he is completing 74%. That disparity is too big not to take advantage of.
What I am proposing is a combination of blitzing up the middle and coaching the edge players like Boye Mafe and Derick Hall to keep contain on those plays. Do not get too far upfield, or cut too far inside, leaving a whole side of the field for Murray to escape to.
No. Let the blitz come up the middle from Ernest Jones or Devon Witherspoon and when Murray sidesteps it, the edges will be there to clean the play up.
You may also occasionally try a stunt with your four basic linemen. Watch Chris Williams force Murray out of the pocket with inside rush and DeMarcus Watson stunting around to cut off Murray’s escape lane.
With the poor pass rush ability of the Cardinal defense and the Seahawks (and especially Geno Smith) no doubt will be riding a wave of confidence coming off a big win. If the Seattle defense can pull off one or more of these containments on the Cardinal offense, it could be a very successful day.
Some Offensive Notes
— The Cardinals are #31 in the NFL on third down conversions allowed on defense, at a whopping 47.97%. In away games? Dead last, conceding 57.45%. Fifty-seven percent! The Seahawks must take advantage.
— At that rate, how are they not regularly getting blown out? They are the #9 defense in the Red Zone. The Seattle offense is #16 in Red Zone scoring. Feels like Ken Walker, AJ Barner, Zach Charbonnet and (maybe) Noah Fant will need to make their presence felt in the Red Zone to keep the pressure on the Cardinal offense.
— The Cardinals might be D.K. Metcalf’s toughest opponent. In nine games he has only two touchdowns and has not broken the 60-yard barrier in receiving yards. None of us would mind if he had a big game today.
— Arizona’s pass rush is nothing to fear. They are bottom-10 in pressure rate and sacks. They also rarely blitz, preferring to rush four and drop everyone else in coverage. Geno Smith’s challenge will likely be different this week – reading the defense and finding the passing lanes instead of running for his life. It might take a little getting used to. But once Smith gets in rhythm, watch out. Perhaps the Seahawks can assist that a bit with some short early throws.
— Quarterbacks are completing 73.9% of their passes when they line up under center against Arizona. They may have a plan to flood coverage but it would appear you can open up lanes by drawing the linebackers in with an effective running game and play-action.
— I know PFF isn’t the gold standard but look at Arizona’s interior defensive linemen with the most snaps this year and their grades — old friend L.J.Collier (46.9), Dante Stills (54.3) and Roy Lopez (51.8). I do not think there will be a better matchup for Laken, Olu and Bradford this season. Make the most of it, fellas.