This is a guest post by Curtis Allen

It is eerie how similar this week’s matchup against the San Francisco 49ers is with the last time they played them in Seattle, Week Twelve’s Thanksgivings Day game last year.

The Watch Points for that game discussed several of the needs and feelings of a Seahawks team coming off a frustrating loss to an inferior opponent (the Rams).  It was a loss littered with mistakes and poor play, questionable play calls on offense, culminating in a last-second field goal try that did not go their way.

The Seahawks needed to balance out their run/pass mix on offense.

Turnovers were a problem.

They needed to tackle better and generate more pass rush on defense.

All these concerns are once again at the forefront of everyone’s mind as the Seahawks prepare for a critical matchup.

What is at stake in the next few games?  Putting themselves in a position to grab a playoff spot to be sure.  But more than that, beating two division opponents at home may allow the Seahawks to build up a lead in the division and a head of steam that will be hard to close the gap on come December.  Better playoff seeding is also at stake right now.

A win puts the Seahawks two full games ahead of the Niners and gives them the tie breaker as well.  It also means San Francisco will have lost four of their last five going into two very tough games, one against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs and one against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football.  The Niners could go into their bye week 2-6 or 3-5, needing to practically run the table to get a good playoff seeding.

It all starts tonight.

So those points above are still the main points for this game.

They simply must get the running game going.

The Seahawks’ staff and players have spent the week doing an I Am Spartacus routine over who is responsible for their stunning lack of running plays on offense.

It does not matter who is ultimately responsible.  It does not matter if the whole stadium and both teams know the Seahawks are going to be leaning more on the run than they have to this point.  It must be addressed immediately.

San Francisco is conceding 4.7 yards per rush this year, good for #21 in the NFL.  It is being achieved mostly through the combination of tough 2–5-yard runs with some explosives mixed in.  Arizona had six 10+ yard runs in their win last week.  Minnesota had four in their win.

It is mission critical that the Seahawks successfully run the ball on San Francisco.  It keeps the defense fresh, minimizes some of their Offensive Line issues and allows them to have a little more control of the game.

And this is an important starting point for their success.  It is fair to say that in their current five-game losing streak against the Niners, not once have the Seahawks felt like they had any control of the game.  The best way to defend a Kyle Shanahan offense (and a Sean McVay one, for that matter) is to keep the ball away from them.

Unleash Ken Walker.  Let Zach Charbonnet lower his shoulder and get some tough yards.

And a secret source of rushing yards:  Geno Smith.  Sam Darnold and Kyler Murray regularly took off running and burned the defense when presented with the opportunity.  In a game where Stone Forsythe will be lining up against Nick Bosa, Smith will need to process quickly and go for it more liberally than he has so far this season.  Like this:

The second point:  turnovers.  The Seahawks are underwater at -3.  The Niners were +10 last year but are currently even at zero.

In two of the Niners’ losses, they lost the turnover battle.  In their third they were dead even and forcing a fumble at the one-yard line kept the game competitive.

The defense is on pace for a similar number of takeaways as 2023, so it appears the offense must be the challenge.

It is.  The difference this year is quite simply Brock Purdy.  He is on pace to shatter his career-worsts for interceptions and fumbles.

The Seahawks can redeem themselves nicely with a couple of key turnovers on defense.

That begins with the third key point from last year:  Good tackling and putting pressure on the Quarterback.

The Seahawks have made confident statements this week about correcting their run fits and tackling angles.  They really struggled against the Giants on Sunday.  We will see if they improved, as the team with some of the hardest offensive players to tackle is their next opponent.

George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Jordan Mason force you to wrap up and not let go.

It is not just the Seahawks that have had problems bringing them down.  Have a look at this clip where Marlon Humphrey – a player who has only three missed tackles in his last 32 games – tries to just knock Deebo over with physicality:

That was from the Ravens’ masterful 33-19 win over San Francisco last year – the one that really cemented Mike Macdonald as a choice candidate for head coaching jobs.  It just illustrates that the Niners bring intensity and physicality to their games.  And even in games that the opposition handily wins, there are going to be moments the defense does not come out on top.

That game was also an excellent illustration of attacking the Quarterback and making him adjust his timing.  They sacked Brock Purdy twice, pressured him eight times and picked him off four times.  This game was over by the middle of the third quarter.

Would it surprise you to know that the Ravens only blitzed Purdy eight times?  It sure surprised me.

The Ravens got pressure with their front four and had Purdy feeling pressure that was not there most of the game.  He could have had even more interceptions – he hit Raven defenders in the hands and they were not able to secure the ball more than once.

Can Macdonald do that with his Seahawks squad?  They have been badly banged up and will be missing important pieces Uchenna Nwosu and Byron Murphy.  However, it does appear that Leonard Williams is much closer to being functional and Boye Mafe and Derick Hall are likely to play.

San Francisco’s Offensive Line is not much better than Seattle’s (although to be fair, Trent Williams and Charles Cross are not in the same class).  Brock Purdy is facing a slightly higher Pressure Rate than Geno Smith is.  There should be ample opportunities to make him uncomfortable.

That said, look for Macdonald to dial up some occasional clever looks.  Many of their schemes on defense so far this season have been closer to base than delving into deception packages.  It is possible Macdonald has been playing a bit of a long game, with the twin goals of getting this defense installed in live games and in anticipation of opening up some ideas against a division rival.

What kind of ideas?

Have a look at this play.

Macdonald has Roquan Smith, Patrick Queen and Kyle Van Noy crowding the line of scrimmage with three down linemen pre-snap, looking like a big blitz package.  But none of them go at the snap.  They all retreat to coverage and instead Kyle Hamilton (perfectly synching to the snap) comes roaring in off a nickel coverage spot.

Hamilton gets illegally chop-blocked by McCaffrey and then Aaron Banks decides to flop his 324 lbs on him to make sure he is down.

Meanwhile, Nmandi Madubuike and Odafe Oweh beat their men (really, outlast them with a relentless motor) and chase Purdy, who has taken too much time to process who is doing what on defense.

Purdy is forced into a contested throw that Marlon Humphrey bats away and right into the arms of…Kyle Hamilton, who has gotten up and doggedly gotten back into the play.

It is smarts.  Desire.  Toughness.

That is what it will take to defeat the Niners.  Do the Seahawks have it in them?  We will find out.

Those are the major points.  Scheming is important, but this team simply needs to execute better and raise the level of their intensity to meet the moment.

A couple of additional notes that could also be a crucial factor:

Win the Red Zone Battle

The San Francisco offense has been struggling mightily in the red zone, currently ranking #29 in Touchdown Efficiency with 40.9% of their trips resulting in six points.  Just for reference, last year they were easily #1 in the NFL with 68%.

Kyle Shanahan has expressed bewilderment at their lack of scoring, noting that they have yet to have success in the run or pass game in the most critical part of the field.  How critical?  They went 1-for-6 last week against Arizona in a game they lost by one point.  Does not get more critical than that.

It is not too difficult to discern what a major part of the issue is.  They really miss Christian McCaffrey.  Last year, he had twelve red zone touchdowns (eight running, four receiving).  The rest of the team combined?  Also twelve.

Look at his work last year in that Thanksgiving Day game:

You just cannot replace that level of skill, toughness and desire and the Niners are feeling it.  Also exacerbating the problem is that in five games, they only have one touchdown from outside the red zone on offense.  One!

Adding to that, the lack of time in the pocket is also an issue.  Quarterbacks frequently scramble to buy time and eventually find an open receiver – it is just an inevitability that a skilled player will get open.

This is where the ‘get pressure with four and flood coverage’ plan is at its most critical.  Purdy does not have the strongest arm or the quickest legs.  What he does have is accuracy and touch in tight windows.  Do not allow him the time to deploy those weapons.

The Seahawks have been successful defending in the red zone, currently ranking #11 in the NFL.  That is a small sample size, however, which includes Bo Nix’s first game, Miami and their mess of an offense, and the Giants fumbling the ball at the one-yard line.  The Seahawks gave up five red zone touchdowns to Detroit and it is fair to say the Niners are far closer to the Lions on offense than those other teams.  If they still rank #11 coming out of this game, it will be a good day’s work.

On offense, the Seahawks are #10 in the red zone and that is a legit number.  Four different Seahawks have red zone touchdowns and they are scoring from outside the red zone just as much as they are in it.

They must keep it up and find success with it.

Looking at what kind of play that has worked against the Niners defense this year, a short crossing play where the receiver sort of gets lost either behind or beyond the line of scrimmage has been regularly effective (particularly in the Minnesota game, where a lot of defensive attention is on Justin Jefferson).  Plays like this crosser with A.J. Barner are a prime example:

This can work in any region of the field to move the defense’s eyes around.

Some Other Brief Notes:

— The Niners are banged up in their backfield.  Charvarius Ward is questionable with a knee injury.  Even if he is active, it could be a challenge to keep up with the receivers.  With Talanoa Hufanga going on Injured Reserve, the Niners are thin at the Safety spot.  Ji’Ayir Brown and Malik Mustafa are being forced into the lineup.  They have had moments of good play but PFF is grading both in the 50’s thus far.  The deep middle of the field should be an area where the Seahawks attack with regularity in this game.  Noah Fant needs to be utilized in this way.  Calling my shot: I wonder if these youngsters would bite on a Flea Flicker type play.

— Special Teams once again could be critical.  Dee Williams has not impressed as a punt returner and the coverage teams are in the bottom ten of the NFL.  The sting of a blocked field goal try at the worst possible time Sunday still lingers.  A ‘didn’t significantly alter the game’s outcome’ would be an improvement at this point.  The Niners will be breaking in a new kicker as Josh Moody is out with an ankle injury.  They had to go for it on a Fourth-and-23 at Arizona’s 27-yard line last week because they had no kicker.  It obviously failed and again, they lost by one point.

— I do also think the offense will try some more creative things in this week’s game to shake up the defense and keep them off guard.  Hopefully it will be better than Deejay Dallas trying to throw the ball into a tight window at a critical point in the game.  That said, designing plays and sequences that give Nick Bosa extra blocking attention or simply move away from his side of the field are a fair expectation.

— Look for some explosive plays in passes to the Running Backs.  Both Walker and Charbonnet are good pass catchers and can move well in space.  If they give Walker enough room he will break one.