This is a guest post by Curtis Allen…
The last time the Seahawks lost a game to the Arizona Cardinals, Alex Collins and Deejay Dallas were Seattle’s primary running backs. Russell Wilson’s finger was still mending and he had just a few weeks of his Seahawks career left.
In the seven matchups since then, the Seahawks have won by an average of 8.7 points — that includes a meaningless one-point win in 2023 when Matt Prater missed what would be a game-winning field goal try as time expired.
It is fair to say that if there is one team the Seahawks have handled easily the last three seasons, it is the Cardinals.
Yet we know the Seahawks will not be taking this game lightly. Having already lost a division game to San Francisco, they will be eager to bank a win that could potentially mean a lot later in the season.
What have we seen from the Cardinals in three games so far this year?
In going 2-1, they have had a lead in the fourth quarter in all three games but have been unable to ice the game by running the ball or sustaining drives. This has burned them once and made their two wins much less comfortable than they should have been.
On defense, they are currently fifth in the NFL for points allowed but are 30th overall in passing yards allowed and 23rd overall in total yards allowed. They have a ‘bend don’t break’ aesthetic to them and opponents have made some odd choices at times (the Saints gave Alvin Kamara only 13 touches in Week One and the Panthers chased the game a bit in Week Two with a crazy 55/19 pass/run split) that helped support those numbers.
The Cardinals offense is a very strange animal at the moment. Their running game suffered a massive blow last week with James Connor getting injured. Kyler Murray is avoiding throwing to his Wide Receivers at a ridiculous pace and comes across as half disinterested and half happy to throw his Offensive Coordinator under the bus when asked about it.
His average depth of target this year is a whopping 20% lower than his career average.
Those numbers are evidence that Murray is not pushing the ball down the field much and prefers choosing to check down at a high rate through three games.
A key note may lie in the offensive line being a bit of a train wreck so far this season:
It may get even worse for this game, with starters Johnson and Brown listed as Questionable to play and their backups (Kelvin Beachum and Will Hernandez) also listed as Questionable.
The Seahawks, with a great Defensive Line, speed and tackling at the second level and their efficient yet explosive offense would appear to match up very well with the Cardinals.
What has to happen to extend the win streak to eight games?
Bottle up Kyler Murray
We are very aware that Kyler has a skill with his legs to either extend plays or get yards when the pass rush starts to close in. He still has that skill.
In the absence of Connor as a runner that can get the tough yards and as a pressure-release valve to dump the ball off to, the importance of keeping Kyler boxed in a bit will be greater. If his first option is unavailable and there is not an easy target available, he gets antsy and can dance himself into sacks or other mistakes – if the pass rush is able to form that “horseshoe” around him.
The Seahawks deployed this strategy very well last year. In two games, Murray only had 25 yards on five rushes. He was not able to materially affect the game in a way that he is accustomed to.
How did they do it? Strength up the middle. It is great to have speedy pass rushers coming in from the edges. But a particularly mobile and agile player like Murray more often gets bottled up when the interior defenders clog up the middle, moving the pocket backwards and not allowing him free lanes to move forward while he searches for targets. And Jarran Reed, Byron Murphy and Leonard Williams have been outstanding so far this season.
Speed at the second level helps as well. Ernest Jones, Tyrice Knight and the safeties can close quickly if Murray does get through.
The Seahawks will also have Devon Witherspoon available and we know how he can affect Murray with his speed and instincts.
The Cardinals Offensive Line is battered.
James Connor is not there to be a safety blanket.
More of this game is on Murray’s shoulders than normal.
If the Seahawks defense can keep him contained, this game has a very good chance of going their way.
Win the Tight End Battle
Through three games of the NFL schedule, the Cardinals and Seahawks are two of the worst teams at defending Tight Ends.
Their numbers conceded are similar and they both have played San Francisco and New Orleans. I would give the Seahawks a slight edge since the Cardinals did not have to play against George Kittle and the Seahawks have also played Jonnu Smith and Pat Freiermuth in Pittsburgh. The Cardinals gave up a near career-best day to Ja’Tavian Sanders.
Who should the Seahawks match up A.J. Barner and Elijah Arroyo with on defense?
Take your pick. Linebackers Akeen Davis-Gaither and Mack Wilson have given up 173 passing yards between the two of them and have four missed tackles. Safety Jalen Thompson has conceded 156 yards and a 102.8 Quarterback Rating in coverage.
The Cardinals’ defenders are making it easy for Quarterbacks and Tight Ends. All of the highlights you see against them this season are not routes run by Tight Ends with any degree of trickery or precision. Juwan Johnson of the Saints was literally running slants and was getting chunks of yards every single time he was targeted.
I could easily see the Seahawks attacking the middle of the field liberally with Sam Darnold throwing well-timed quick strike passes to the Tight Ends until the Cardinals are forced to make some kind of adjustment.
This could literally be an area where the ‘throw to set up the run’ strategy becomes a weapon the Seahawks employ on offense. If there are so many chances with Tight Ends running open, that will create some pliability on the defense, and Zach Charbonnet will have chances to run roughshod like he did in Week Fourteen last year with a career-best 134 yards and two touchdowns. Ken Walker can also take advantage of gaps in the flat for dump-off passes with the Tight Ends clearing the zone.
On the other side, Tyrice Knight is the sore spot in coverage on defense for the Seahawks. He currently has allowed a perfect completion percentage, 117 yards and a 118.7 Quarterback rating in coverage. He is far better moving forward than backward, like a lot of Linebackers. It is no wonder that Drake Thomas has cut into his snaps on defense at times. If the Seahawks allow Knight to be isolated in coverage – particularly with McBride – that will be an issue.
Trey McBride is the Cardinals’ biggest weapon and Mike Macdonald and the Seahawks need to have a plan for him. As we talked about above, Kyler Murray targets him far more than the Wide Receivers. With all due respect to Marvin Harrison Jr and Michael Wilson, nobody moves the chains like McBride.
In Week Twelve last year, McBride burned the Seahawks for 12 catches for 133 yards and eight first downs. Two weeks later, the Seahawks cut those numbers down to 7 catches for 70 yards and four first downs.
How did they do it? They trusted their Defensive Backs to win one-on-one and gave McBride extra attention.
Earlier in the game, Ernest Jones had dropped into an underneath spot and picked Kyler Murray when he did not see him.
A minute later, Murray is looking for McBride and sees Jones drifting back again and has to go to another receiver.
The Seahawks bracket McBride with Julian Love and Ernest Jones. Murray still has the sting of the interception a minute prior and turns away from McBride and makes an ill-advised throw to Zay Jones that Coby Bryant undercuts and picks off.
If the Seahawks can keep bracketing McBride and perhaps giving him a little bit of an ‘accidental’ pick when he runs a crossing route away from his primary defender, they can work with the pass rush in keeping the ball out of McBride’s hands. No doubt this will greatly diminish the Cardinals’ ability to move the ball downfield.
