This feels like it’s trending a certain way, doesn’t it?

Against Maxx Crosby’s wishes, the Raiders are shutting him down for the season. A cynic might say it’s partly to give them the best chance to secure the #1 overall pick with two games to go. An even bigger cynic might suggest it’s to keep Crosby healthy ahead of a rebuilding period for the franchise.

Jay Glazer isn’t daft. His sentence at the end of his tweet above, “this could lead to questions on his future”, should be noted.

It’s something we’ve been talking about for weeks. As a disastrous 2025 season unfolds, it feels inevitable that the Raiders are going to experience another period of upheaval. Crosby is an asset they can deal as they prepare to embrace a longer-term plan.

His new contract, signed in March, is easy to deal. It looks like it was set-up with the idea he could be moved in the near future. A trade in the coming months would only cost the Raiders $5m in dead money. Compare that to Myles Garrett’s new contract in Cleveland, signed days after Crosby’s deal. It’d cost the Browns $40.8m in dead money to trade Garrett.

I’m convinced the Seahawks are going to be keeping a very close eye on this situation.

They made a move to try and acquire him last off-season. There’s a feeling that interest might’ve reignited prior to the trade deadline.

As we’ve been discussing over the last few months, this is a bad draft class. The worst I’ve covered since starting this blog in 2008.

There’s a good chance players with third round grades will be taken in the top-45. It’s going to be virtually impossible to match grade to value, especially if you’re picking towards the end of each round.

The trade market could be electric when the new league year begins, with contending teams feeling they’re better off using their key draft assets to acquire impact players rather than draft day-two prospects in round one.

John Schneider has shown in the past he’ll take this approach. For the covid-impacted draft of 2021, where there was hardly any 2020 college tape to study and a massively restricted pre-draft process, he was willing to deal his 2021 first round pick for a veteran.

That move, for Jamal Adams, didn’t work out. However, the problem wasn’t the concept of the trade. It was the compensation for a player who wasn’t worth it.

That isn’t a hindsight thought, I hated that trade from day one. Here’s what I wrote at the time:

There is simply no precedent whatsoever for the cost of this trade. Nobody can dispute Adams’ talent. We’ve also talked several times on this blog about the benefit of trading away 2021 picks. The college football season is in flux this year and the 2021 class appears to be top heavy. Dealing your first rounder for a proven veteran who can improve a mediocre defense made sense.

Yet this is the kind of outlay you can really only justify for a quarterback or a truly elite pass rusher or left tackle.

Now the Seahawks face a similar situation. It’s nothing to do with a global pandemic this time — but instead a bad draft.

In the case of Crosby, he isn’t a box safety. He’s a top-level pass-rusher. In this instance, you can justify the big outlay. Particularly in the circumstances.

I keep pitching it like this. The Seahawks could end up having to draft someone with a similar grade to Christian Haynes with their top pick next year. That doesn’t mean the pick would end up with the same result — but it’s far more of a possibility than, say, the times when you’ve felt like you’re getting genuine round one value (Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Byron Murphy etc).

Now compare that to swapping the pick for someone like Crosby.

Whether the Seahawks win the Super Bowl this season or not, the off-season will be about finding ways to improve the team to reach an even higher level.

It is going to be extremely difficult to improve the roster through the draft in 2026.

It’ll also be difficult, perhaps even impossible, to make significant free agent moves. Teams do not have an endless amount of cash to put in escrow for guaranteed contracts. If the Seahawks aim to extend the deals of Smith-Njigba, Devon Witherspoon and possibly Charles Cross in the off-season, that will limit how much they have to throw around on the open market.

There are no such issues with acquiring Crosby. His contract is already locked-in to 2029. You wouldn’t need to begin talks over a new deal, or pay him new money up front to get him to join.

He is also a perfect fit for the personality of this team. I’d go as far to say I can’t think of a more Mike Macdonald-type player. His relentless commitment to his craft, passion for the game, lead-by-example presence and 100mph playing style are tailor-made for Seattle’s defense.

It isn’t a surprise they’ve tried to get him before.

Crosby is currently ESPN’s #1 ranked player for run-stop win-rate. We know the Seahawks really value run-defense for their EDGE players. He’s just had another 10-sack season playing basically as a one-man-band for a struggling Raiders defense. Imagine what he could do lined up next to Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy, with Nick Emmanwori lurking on the blitz.

I can well imagine Crosby seeing the Seahawks as an attractive destination too. The team personality, contending status and Head Coach would appeal to him.

There would likely be heavy interest in him. The Dallas Cowboys badly need a top pass rusher and they have surplus draft stock to bargain with. The Detroit Lions face a critical off-season after missing the playoffs this year. Crosby is from Michigan and played college football for Eastern Michigan.

It’s also possible the two other NFC West contenders show interest.

However, there are a few things to consider here. The Cowboys are currently $60m in the red for effective cap space for 2026. The Lions are $10.5m in the red. The Seahawks, meanwhile, are $60m in the black. They’re in a much stronger place to make a big trade.

I’d argue the Rams are unlikely to look at adding a big-name pass-rusher in the off-season. They have two of the better, younger pass rushers already in Jared Verse and Byron Young. They’re both among PFF’s top-15 edge rushers for 2025. They have far more pressing needs — including a future beyond Matthew Stafford, cornerback, skill players and O-line.

The 49ers also feel like an unlikely fit if you’ve been tracking their recent moves. They made a conscious effort to get younger starting this year. They’re already paying big contracts to several players, including their quarterback.

The Seahawks seem uniquely suited to Crosby in terms of fit, opportunity, cap-space and a means to take the next step.

I think it’s absolutely clear it’d be the best use of Seattle’s 2026 first round pick. If it isn’t possible for whatever reason, I suspect they might have an extended list of alternative trade targets.

Crosby’s the one who feels like the best option though. The only question is how much they’d have to pay to get it done. Personally, I would be willing to dip into 2027 stock to make it happen. Considering he turns 29 next August, I think throwing in your 2027 second rounder on top of a 2026 first round pick might be a fair price.

If they get it done — this could be the move to make Seattle’s defense truly elite. They lack the quick wins off the edge Crosby will produce with his elite agility (4.13 shuttle at 255lbs) combined with top-end explosive traits.