A new set of Seahawks off-season predictions

A couple of things have happened in the last 24 hours that warrant an update to the off-season prediction/thoughts piece. Firstly, the Seahawks restructuring the contract of Geno Smith to convert his $9.6M roster bonus into a signing bonus, creating $4.8M in cap space. Secondly, the news the salary cap will be $255.4m this year — far higher than original projections.

It all means the Seahawks currently have approximately $8m in effective cap space (the amount they can actually spend). So what happens next?

Here’s my latest ‘best guess’…

1. Geno Smith will be on the Seahawks roster in 2024

I still find it really curious why John Schneider and Mike Macdonald were so non-committal to Smith when they spoke publicly, not to mention the constant references to Drew Lock, followed by the Adam Schefter ‘trade value’ tweet, if the intention was always to keep Smith as basically the unchallenged starter.

For that reason, I still think there’s a slim chance he will be dealt. The perennially on-point Brady Henderson isn’t ruling it out, so that’s worth considering. The March 18th deadline has been removed, eliminating a leverage advantage for potential suitors. Meanwhile the cost of acquiring Smith in terms of salary is now significantly more attractive.

I just don’t think there’s going to be a good enough offer for a soon-to-be 34-year-old quarterback to justify eating $27m in dead cap space. It’d require a very attractive offer, such as a second round pick, to justify it. I don’t think there’s any chance they’ll get that, meaning it’s very likely Smith stays in Seattle.

So what could the thought process be? As Mike Florio noted on KJR this week, everything Schefter does is quid pro quo. That tweet wasn’t an accident. My best guess is there wasn’t much of a market for Smith, so the Seahawks opted to restructure his deal to save some money this year and proceed with the quarterback on the roster.

I do think they at least tested the water though, to see what interest was out there. If it was always the intention to have Smith lead the offense, they likely would’ve made that clear from the offset. There was no advantage in being non-committal or having Schefter tweet what he did.

It could be that under this newly restructured deal they’re very comfortable keeping Smith, while retaining an openness to a trade should someone call with a great offer. In that case, it’s a win/win. Now the Seahawks are more likely to receive calls and if not, they’ll just crack on with Geno on the team.

2. This doesn’t mean the Seahawks won’t draft a quarterback

Back in 2012 the Seahawks paid Matt Flynn a handsome (for the time) $26m contract with $10m guaranteed. When the deal was announced, NFL media reported it as the Seahawks ‘hoping Flynn turns into their franchise quarterback’.

A few weeks later, they drafted Russell Wilson. He won the starting job and the rest is history. Flynn was dealt to the Raiders a year later for late round picks.

John Schneider sanctioned the Flynn signing with Pete Carroll, all while knowing he desperately wanted to draft Wilson. It was the ultimate, aggressive draft hedge. Thus, keeping Smith for $26.4m and still drafting a rookie who could potentially win the job in 2024 would be par for the course.

The more I thought about this yesterday, the more it made sense. The Seahawks are now fully hedged against the ‘disaster scenario’ in the draft. Imagine if they’d dealt Smith for a day three pick before March 18th and re-signed Drew Lock and another cheap veteran. Firstly, that would be a huge tell to the rest of the league that they want to draft a quarterback. Secondly, if they missed out, they’d be wholly dependant on Lock starting and succeeding with little in the way of competition.

Now, they can let the draft come to them — which has been their modus operandi for the last two years. They don’t need to force things. They can grade their players and stick to the slots where they’d be prepared to take them. If things don’t work out, they have Smith and potentially Lock competing. If things do work out, the Smith arrangement was worthwhile protection and if he doesn’t start in 2024, they likely don’t see it as a major issue.

Let’s not forget, the Seahawks pick once at #16 and not again until #78. It’s not automatic that they’ll be able to trade down from #16 and fill the void. If they don’t have a quarterback graded in a range for the #16 pick when they’re on the clock, what are they supposed to do? Reach? And by #78, the top QB’s will be gone.

Things would be different, perhaps, if they hadn’t traded away the #47 to the Giants for 10 games of Leonard Williams. Yet the reality is, they have a 62-pick block where they are currently sitting things out. It’d be a huge risk to go into the draft assuming they can trade down, plump up their board and get the QB they want in the range they want.

It could even be that they rate a quarterback highly enough to take at #16 but fear a run on the position, especially with the New York Giants, Atlanta, Minnesota and Denver picking ahead of them.

Whatever the circumstances, now they are fully hedged against the numerous doomsday scenarios. If they can take a quarterback in a value spot, it’s an option. If they are unable to do that, it’s not a total necessity. The worst case scenario, as we sit here today, is Geno Smith starts in 2024 — and there are clearly far worse situations than that.

3. I still think trading down will be desired

There are definitely players who you can justify taking at #16. Chop Robinson is the player I’m mostly focused on in that regard. He is often being mocked at #16 or lower, yet has a clear top-10 skillset with game-wrecking potential. Brock Bowers, Taliese Fuaga and Jared Verse would also fit the bill but I see no realistic prospect of them lasting.

The meat of the draft is going to be day two. That’s where you can fill a lot of holes with a lot of talented players at positions of need. Assuming Bowers, Fuaga, Robinson and Verse are all off the board at #16, the value difference between picking in the middle of the first and late in the first will be minimal, perhaps even non-existent.

4. Who will they re-sign?

The fact they have $8m to spend is a major plus in terms of trying to keep Leonard Williams, which I think will be the free agency priority. Curtis Allen and others have suggested Javon Hargrave’s deal with the 49ers last year could be a framework for a Williams contract. Hargrave’s year-one cap-hit in San Francisco was just $6.5m, even though the deal averaged $21m a year. As of right now, the Seahawks can realistically bring back Williams without doing anything else.

This is a bonus because when they eventually release Jamal Adams as a post-June 1st cut, they’ll save $17m. I know this doesn’t technically hit the books until June but it’s still money that will come down the pipe to Seattle and they can plan accordingly in free agency. If they were also prepared to cut Quandre Diggs to save another $11m, plus Bryan Mone, saving $5.3m, they’d have a decent $33.3m to spend. That’d be enough, if nothing else, to fill out the roster.

I think with regards to other re-signings, Lock will be a key target (how can he not be after everything they’ve said?) and it shouldn’t be too tricky to bring back Evan Brown. With Jordyn Brooks and Noah Fant, I suspect they’d like to keep both but it’ll come down to cost and their respective markets. It’s difficult to predict how much interest either will receive.

The problem is the Seahawks have a number of players reaching free agency who will need to be re-signed or replaced and they don’t have the advantage of extra draft picks this year. The $33.3m will evaporate quickly, especially if they follow previous trends of overpaying to keep their own (see: Quandre Diggs, Will Dissly, bringing back Bruce Irvin etc).

5. How active will they be on the open market?

I’m guessing not at all. They don’t have a ton to spend. They’ll probably add to the $33.3m estimated above by re-jigging deals here and there. The Seahawks, prior to last year, were not aggressive early in free agency. They were a ‘wait and see’ team, seeking value in the second and third wave.

This tactic worked emphatically in 2013 (Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett) but history hasn’t repeated since. Instead, they’ve ended up with situations like swapping Jadeveon Clowney for Benson Mayowa and Bruce Irvin and calling it a pass rush. They’ve tried to plug holes on the offensive line with players who simply weren’t up to the job.

Unfortunately, the other approach hasn’t really worked either. They splurged on Dre’Mont Jones and he was underwhelming in 2023. It goes to show that the most important things in elite team building are excellent drafting and inspired, value trades. That’s how the Seahawks achieved glory in 2013 and it’s currently how the 49ers have become the top-dog in the NFC over a stretch of years.

I think the Seahawks will be conscious of this and will be as conservative as they’ve ever been on the market. It will be a complete commitment to value.

I’d love to see them go and add a big name piece to the offensive line or bring Frankie Luvu back to the PNW given his style and production seems ideally suited to Mike Macdonald’s scheme. I’m not holding my breath, though.

A year ago the Ravens only signed one player on a deal worth more than $3.25m — Odell Beckham Jr at $15m. Every signing they made had a one-year contract. I think the Seahawks are in a similar boat — they’ll make one big signing (Williams) then set out to add cheap one-year contract type deals to fill holes. If you think the Ravens only did this because of Lamar Jackson’s new contract, know that they currently have twice as much effective cap space as Seattle with ample opportunity to add more.

6. Possible plans for the draft

Listening to Ryan Grubb I get the sense the Seahawks are going to build a very aggressive, attack-minded offensive line. If that is the plan, luckily for the Seahawks they already have two offensive linemen — Anthony Bradford and Abe Lucas — who fit that style. Charles Cross is the definition of finesse and doesn’t meet the criteria but it might be less important at the left tackle spot, if pass-protection is key.

Troy Fautanu definitely fits the bill. He consistently gets after opponents. His style of play alone is perhaps indicative of what we can expect in Seattle. If he lined up at left guard and Bradford at right guard, it won’t be much fun for opponents.

Zach Frazier has a strong wrestling background in his family and it shows. The West Virginia center absolutely hammers defenders consistently. He’s aggressive in a way a lot of the other players at his position are not. He is the aggressor, he shoots his hands quickly and he gets after you. He would be a fit.

There are times on tape where Graham Barton ends a play celebrating a dominating, aggressive block. He has great versatility to play numerous positions. Zak Zinter is very capable of delivering damaging blows with his heavy hands.

Taliese Fuaga would be an ideal fit but as noted, he likely doesn’t get beyond the Jets at #10. I think there are elements to Jackson Powers-Johnson’s game that fit this scheme too but his size would be a departure from the norm at center and I wonder if his stock has got a little too rich for his actual talent level.

Whoever they draft on the O-line, though, is likely going to be someone who loves to aggressively get after opponents and make their life uncomfortable.

I think if they re-sign Leonard Williams, they are unlikely to spend a high pick at defensive tackle. Alternatively if he moves on, it becomes a critical need.

As noted earlier, I think there’s still a very reasonable chance the Seahawks draft a quarterback before the end of round three. I do think, however, they’re not going to chase that situation. Which is probably wise.

The Seahawks are clearly focused on a physical playing style, high character and they are avoiding risk in the draft. That’s what we can glean from 2022 and 2023.

In order to take the next step, they need to accomplish one of the following. They need to find a top-tier long-term quarterback, or they need to add legit ‘blue-chip’ players beyond the top-10/first round, not simply add ‘good’ or ‘decent’ players. Both instances are easier to write or say than execute. But unless the Seahawks achieve either, they are unlikely to return to the top of the NFC.

If you missed it earlier, check out my interview with Wake Forest safety Malik Mustapha — someone who reminds me a lot of Budda Baker and certainly ticks the high character, highly physical and plus-talent boxes:


  1. cha

    Excellent. Good logic on all points Rob.

    I’ve been mulling with the March 18 Geno date taken off the books, they can spend a couple months with Geno (and Lock) and see what they’ve got. They don’t have to decide on their QB spot before MM gets his pencils in a jar.

    They get extra time because of the April 1 new coach date.

    Plenty of time to evaluate their options.

    Then the Seahawks would see what they can do in the draft to get a QB at #16 or trade down and get one later in the first round, and then spend the night calling teams that missed out and dealing from strength with 3 QBs on the roster.

    Let me tell you, a $12.7m QB salary got WAY smaller after the cap announcement today.

  2. geoff u

    I think they talked Lock up because they want him on the team and he’s unsigned. They’re cosying up to keep him. Geno, on the other hand, isn’t going anywhere. Yet.

    • Misfit

      Was this article posted before or after the new salary cap going up by 30.6M?

      • BK26

        Does it matter? He can still be traded. That’s most likely been their preferred route.

      • slartibartfast42

        This article? You mean the one where Rob writes in the third sentence of the first paragraph: ” the salary cap will be $255.4m this year”?

  3. Dubb

    Great insight. I was thinking about a market for Geno or Lock. How desperate are the Jets? The Coach and GM have already been put on notice. Would they need to have a legit backup in case Rodgers is injured or ineffective. I’m still not sold that Geno will be on the roster come opening day.

    • Cancellator

      The Jets? That would be an outrageous irony.

      • Parallax

        What a great story. The media ninnies would love it.

        Of course in New York they’ll be more than happy to rip him a new one — again.
        Seattle has the opposite problem. Reporters afraid to ask questions that might, God forbid, offend. Team stenographers.

  4. Tight Head

    The restructuring details of the contract just took the wind right out of my “new regime sails” Gives me “Yeah, meet the new boss same as the old boss” vibes… please let me be wrong!

    • Group Captain Mandrake

      I am choosing not to look at it this way, but you could be right. As Rob said, they may have looked into trading him but didn’t find any deals they were willing to take. Just like last year, Geno was a free agent and ended up taking a fairly team-friendly deal because he didn’t really have a market. It is probably better to have at least a decent QB on the roster than none at all, which is what happens if they cut Geno. This also doesn’t necessarily preclude picking the QBotF in the draft. Even if they don’t (but I sure hope they plan to), they may be looking at Geno as the oft mentioned bridge until next year. Get the team in good shape then add a QB as the final piece.

      I have no idea if I am right or wrong, but this whole process is fascinating and far more fun to watch unfold than the last 4-5 years have been.

      • Parallax

        I’m not seeing it. Was against picking up his contact. Snyder seemed to think he was worth something. Kind of like how San Francisco thought Garoppolo was worth something and picked up his contract.

        There’s a phenomenon well known to economists. People overvalue their own stuff. It’s what keeps U-Haul in business, as people pay thousands to transport old furniture that could be replaced with similar used stuff for far less. NFL GMs are not above it.

        • Group Captain Mandrake

          I think they are basically covering all their bases. I think they would like to trade him but maybe can’t find a taker. If they cut him, what do they have? Literally nothing. Then what? Hope you get a qb who can start right away in the draft? Find a street free agent who is better (cheaper, yes but that doesn’t mean better)? Geno is an average qb who costs more than I’d like them to pay, but I’m also not convinced that Lock, while cheaper, is better.

          • Parallax

            I’m not concerned with better right now. I’m concerned with rebuilding.

    • slartibartfast42

      You can look at it in a glass half empty way. Or, you can look at it a different way and see that we’ve reduced this year’s cap hit for an above average QB who shows flashes of greatness and has a good rapport with the offense as currently structured, who can now ply his trade under a new regime led by an OC who helped orchestrate one of the best offenses in college football last year. (Was the talent held back by the Pete and Waldron offense last year? Now we can see for sure). Not only that, with the restructure, he’s also slightly more attractive as a trade target for other teams if the Hawks keep that option open. It seems unlikely that the Hawks could go get a free agent QB while also cutting Geno and dealing with the dead cap hit, or that any rookie QB could lead the offense as well as Geno has. Now, maybe we find the next version of Russ (not Russ’ skillset per se, but a QB who just flat out wins the role in training camp and runs with it), and if we do, then Geno is a far less costly bench QB and someone we could trade to a team needing a QB.

      • Parallax

        I’m just not seeing the benefit a streaky mediocre QB on a contract that no one but Seattle thinks a bargain. Color me spectacularly unimpressed.

  5. Julian

    Thanks to Cha clearing up a question I had about what Dead Cap Jamal Adams would have by cutting him pre June 1, I’m starting to think perhaps cut Jamal Adams outright this year taking on his $27M dead cap hit this year, clearing any roll over for 2025.

    They can sign key free agents like Leonard Williams and Jordyn Brooks to multiple year deals with low cap hits in 2024 (I think a 2 year deal for Jordyn Brooks would work really well for both parties). This idea looks more attractive to me with the higher than expected Salary Cap in 2024.

    It would mean however, I’d keep Tyler Locketts contract under review, because a Post June 1 cut or trade for Tyler would later on, free up all the money you’d need to sign the rookie class and have some money for shots at veteren free agents still on the market post June?

    • Chris 206

      They shouldn’t be signing people with a low cap structured early in the deal. Particularly during years when they aren’t a serious threat. Kicking things down the road is how John keeps getting himself in this mess.

    • Parallax

      Makes no sense when we could have released him and paid next to nothing.

  6. Julian

    Free agency is key for me. Add the good and decent players here. Fill out a roster, so that you don’t need to draft for need but can always look to improve on what you have, in whatever position, including QB.

    According to Over The Cap, cutting the following players outright, Adams, Diggs, Dissly, Mone, Bellore and Eskridge, will leave nearly $48M in cap space. The next players vulnerable to be cut would be Jarran Reed (who offers good value for his salary and we need numbers on the DL) $4.4M or Tyler Lockett. Tyler would only need to be cut, freeing $17M with a Post June 1 cut, if salary were needed post the draft for signing the rookie class or other veteren free agents for depth? Hopefully in this scenario he might even come back on a team friendly contract?

    Having a completely new coaching staff, I see the roster construction as at least a 2 year project, which is why cutting Jamal Adams outright this year makes sense. It’d create better opportunities for free agency in 2025.

    • Rob Staton

      Savings for cutting outright (not post-June 1st):

      Adams — $7.3m
      Diggs — $11m
      Mone — $5.3m
      Bellore — $2.9m
      Eskridge — $1.5m

      That’s $28m

      If you put it with the $7.8m in effective cap space (what they can spend) you’d have $35.8m

      So it’s not unreasonable — but if you do Adams post-June 1st you have $45.9m

      • Julian

        Yes I see your point, but the OTC Salary Cap Calculator, for whatever reason, starts us with $12 969 647 in effective cap space , plus you missed Will Dissly $7M off the list?

        To be fair, I’m a bit over my head with all this Cap stuff, but the team definitely has room within the salary cap, with these cuts, to build a good roster, before heading into the draft?

      • Elmer

        Those five roster moves plus the increase in the cap would make it less urgent to part with Lockett and Wagner-if they value having them on the 2024 roster.

        • Rob Staton

          Bobby Wagner is a free agent, so it wouldn’t be a case of parting with him

          But they shouldn’t re-sign him, it’s time to move on

          • Big Mike

            PLEASE move on

            • Peter

              Love bobby but it’d kind of an embarrassing stat to lead the league in tackles on such a miserable defense.

  7. TheYardDawg

    I’ve been thinking about Fautanu a lot. After watching Troy the last three years I’ve come to the conclusion, that if he can snap, center might actually be a good fit if the Hawks don’t think Oluwatimi can be a good starter for the team. He plays with a low base, is a nasty run blocker who can pull effectively, and his base is strong. If the Hawks can only trade back to around 20, he might be an option at center, with the ability to swing to guard or tackle.

    • Rob Staton

      I wouldn’t want to do that personally. A first round pick on a tackle you move to center feels icky for value

      • cha

        Been there done that and the Seahawks got one good year out of him at C on his rookie deal.

        • Rob Staton


  8. Forrest

    Go get me Grover Stewart and Frankie Lulu and I’ll feel a lot better about this team.

    From PFF:
    Indianapolis ranked in the top half of the NFL in expected points allowed per rush with Stewart and dead last in the games without him in the lineup. Stewart’s presence frees up rushers around him because he takes on double teams and clogs up the middle.

    Frankie Luvu has been the Panthers’ Swiss army knife for the last few seasons, and that didn’t waiver in 2023. The hybrid linebacker earned a 78.5 PFF grade, the 14th-highest among all linebackers, and had the highest PFF pass-rushing grade at the position.

    There are playmakers all over the defense with Brian Burns, Derrick Brown and Jaycee Horn, but Luvu is the unsung hero. He can affect the game as a pass-rusher, a run defender, a blitzer and even in coverage. Luvu’s multidimensional skillset makes him a true every-down player.

    • Rob Staton

      Yep, I’m a fan of signing Luvu

      I think he might be out of our price range though

      Played for Wazzu

  9. LouCityHawk

    Took my best shot at predicting the top 15 picks pre-combine, and not accounting for trades (which I think there will be a lot of this year).

    Caleb Williams
    QB USC
    Jayden Daniels
    QB LSU
    Marvin Harrison Jr.
    WR Ohio State
    Malik Nabers
    WR LSU
    Taliese Fuaga
    OT Oregon State
    Rome Odunze
    WR Washington
    JC Latham
    OT Alabama
    Drake Maye
    QB North Carolina
    Jared Verse
    EDGE Florida State
    Tyler Guyton
    OT Oklahoma
    Chop Robinson
    EDGE Penn State
    J.J. McCarthy
    QB Michigan
    Olumuyiwa Fashanu
    OT Penn State
    Joe Alt
    OT Notre Dame
    Brock Bowers
    TE Georgia

    That doesn’t look terrible for a trade down scenario.

    • Julian

      Personally for a 3rd round pick, I’d try and trade up in this scenario. This team needs Blue Chip talent.

      Look how hard it is to find a player on the current roster outside of DK Metcalf or Devon Witherspoon who we think is worth a Day 1, let alone a Day 2 pick in a trade? That is pretty damning evidence of the lack of top end talent on the roster. I fear dropping further in the draft will just increase the chances of adding to the good / decent mid table standing of the team, rather than boosting it, bit by bit.

      I’m sticking with this philosphy, even though it seems a fairly unpopular one.

      • Rob Staton

        Julian, you keep saying trade up. Who for?

        A third might move you up one or two spots. In Lou’s mock he has Bowers lasting but I’m telling you, that won’t happen. He isn’t going to be the elite TE who drops after several went earlier than this

        So who else? Who is this blue chip player you keep saying to move up for?

        • Peter

          It has to be a qb. If a qb is the truth it won’t matter in a year how we got them or what it costs.

          Outside of that. For this draft crank I can’t see a single player to move up for. There’s basically no scenario where moving down doesn’t make me from happy to at least pleased with the players. There’s a tiny amount of stick and pick but even then….not totally sold.

        • LouCityHawk

          This is a fair point, was more trying to get people thinking about the trade down possibilities and why that might be. Thought about Bowers on three earlier picks.

          Here I would hypothesize that the Eagles would trade up for Quinyon Mitchell.

        • Julian

          Working off the scenario posted by LouCityHawk above, Chop Robinson, JJ McCarthy or Brock Bowers. Looking at a Trade Compensation chart a 3rd might get the Seahawks to #11. If Bowers goes earlier, Chop Robinson might be there later.

          My point is this; Chop Robinson, Brock Bowers or JJ McCarthy in all probability, have more than double the chance of being a Blue Chip player than picks from the 20s onwards in the draft. Even trading down will only give you one chance to pick in the 1st round, why not give yourself the best chance in the 1st round.

          I’m considering a Blue Chip player at this point, a player who’ll hold their value as a 1st round pick (in the case of a hypothetical trade) for the duriation of their rookie contract.

          Being at #16 is irritating, it’s not high enough to be thinking that one of these players, will likely drop to you. We’d be having a completely different conversation if we were picking at #11 or #12, so why not hypothesise this scenario by trading up. It’d be a different conversation if we were picking in the 20s, the compensation would be too great, but we are where we are.

          • Julian

            By the way, I’m not expecting anyone to agree with me, you guys have forgotten more than I know about American Football, but it’s just the way I see it and if that changes, I’ll let you know.

          • Rob Staton

            To go from 20 to 11 to get Justin Fields it cost Chicago a future first, a fourth and a fifth

            You aren’t getting to 11 for a third

            A blue chip player is a blue chip player. It isn’t a player who ‘will hold their value’

      • LouCityHawk

        There are healthy amount of flawed prospects in this draft who could be your blue chip


        • Elite strength. When he plays low, offensive linemen end up in the backfield
        • Elite length. Able to keep his body clean and control guards with one or two hands
        • Size and skilset to line up anywhere on the line and be effective
        • Plays through linemen to the running back as opposed to attacking running backs and getting washed out


        • Terribly inconsistent.
        • Effort is a concern. Looked to give up on some plays even though he wasn’t playing a high volume of snaps and had more negative grades than you’d like from a top pick.
        • Burst off the line is lacking. Has a tendency to get high off the snap and play patty cake
        • Didn’t show the change of direction to translate pressures into sacks and bring down quarterbacks”

        That is a blue chip. Take my word for it.

        So is this guy earned a 6th round grade from Lance Zierlein. Also a blue Chipper:

        Long with intriguing frame if he can fill it out
        Plays with a chippy presence on the field
        Consistent production in impact categories
        Uses stride length to challenge the edge as rusher
        Creates pressures with his inside charge
        Active worker with secondary rush
        Loose and limber
        Shows ability to make difficult tackles from awkward angles
        Able to dip, swim or flip shoulders around tackles
        Searches for opportunities to force a fumble
        Elongated slide prevents back-side cuts by tight end
        Sustains pursuit motor.
        All arms and legs at this point
        Body is underdeveloped and lacks definition
        Unable to play with functional balance and body control
        Pad level needs to drop
        Easily widened, caved, turned by power
        Will struggle to control the point as a pro
        Movements are long and need more quickness
        Hands lacking strength and technique
        Running backs and quarterbacks break from his clutches
        Elementary rush approach and fails to use hands as consistent weapons
        One speed rusher with average burst to quarterback’

        Rob has highlighted several players who could be those blue chippers, he interviewed one today. I’d add a dozen more players who have that sort of upside in this draft.

        • PJ in Seattle

          Player 1 sure sounds like Chris Jones. Player 2 is stumping me. Maybe Maxx Crosby?

  10. BK26

    I think that to take the next step, they need a top-tier QBOTF AND blue chip players (common sense statement). If there is no Chris Jones, Patrick Mahomes might not have a ring.

    They have their work cut out for them. I’ve said that it sounds like a throw away year. The meaning being that it’s a year where real progress and growth at competing could very well not happen/be minimal. Shoring up positions through the draft, going trench warfare. Getting younger and hungrier. I still need to see the fat get cut.

    Not having that 2nd round pick hurts, as does years of bad roster and cap management. They have had to hedge a lot. I might feel differently after the draft but it feels like a year of rooting for the young guys, clearing out the team more, and swinging hard next draft.

  11. BobbyK

    Either know you’re gunning for the Super Bowl or know your place in trying to build for it in the future. But, no, we have Geno Smiff. Let’s pay $100 for a Twix when we could get a Snickers for $1.50.

    Is John that gutless to care about the long-term or is Jody that demanding where he doesn’t have a chance to build this thing properly? Whichever one it is, I hate it.

    • Dregur

      You’re talking like he extended Geno. I really do feel this is hedging their bets to ensure they’re not forced to draft a QB if there truly is a run in the first round. Nor does this anyway cripple them long term.

      • JimQ

        Maybe, there is a (unlikely) possibility that the Seahawks already have a verbal deal with some team re: Smith and a higher (round 2/3) draft pick in a future trade closer to draft???

      • Peter

        I’m pretty meh on this.

        Next year Geno will make more then some less than others. Matt flynns contract in the day was pretty big for having four starts and not much else.

        If geno could take either if his good half seasons and turn them into 3/4s of a season that would be quite thing. If not….well just move ahead with a good chunk of cash in 2025 and all their picks.

        Do I love it? Not really. Do I have doubts that Seattle can even draft a qb of note certainly if they trade down? Not really. Not sure that sticking and picking at #16 for penix, mccarthy, or nix is it either.

        So I’m going to hope on some interesting free agent moves, and a great draft at this point.

      • BobbyK

        You’re not winning the Super Bowl. I don’t care if they’re starting a bum rookie, the outcome will be the same as Geno unless you care about 9-8 and think it’s good and don’t realize that 3-14 is actually better for 2025 and beyond. At least the bum rookie could be a future backup on a rookie contract (but could give them a chance to prove they’re the answer!) rather than bum Geno at over $30 million. So stupid unless they’re able to unload him. Then it’s tolerable (and outright good).

        This is unpopular on this blog but signing Leonard Williams is stupid unless he’s the missing piece to winning the Super Bowl next Feb.

        Just because you’re a moron organization and trade a 2nd round pick (and screw over your full allotment of picks in 2025, too) for a guy looking for a 3rd contract (we criticize the Seahawks for some of the moron 3rd contracts they’ve shelled out and yet we’re promoting one for a non-HOF talent when we know the team isn’t winning Super Bowl LIX).

        I understand the best team doesn’t always win the Super Bowl and upsets happen. But I’d prefer rooting for a team that I think going into each season has a chance, while understanding/supporting the years of sucking if I know there’s a purpose to sucking (i.e. building for the future).

        • geoff u

          💯 Hate to say it, but how much did getting Leonard Williams improve our defense? It didn’t, it got worse. What a wasted pick, and if Pete was being truthful, that was all John.

          It’s possible Grub can turn Geno back into a carriage, but neither of these two are going to get us to a Super Bowl, and frankly we’d be lucky to win a playoff game. Color me not all that excited. But we’ll see, hopefully the new coaches can work some miracles. If john ever decides to draft a rookie, I’d rather they just start and take their lumps.

          • Parallax

            I’m fine with letting Williams go. The 2nd and 5th are gone. Signing him doesn’t bring ’em back. If we got a team-friendly deal, great. But to pay full freight makes no sense. I’d rather go for retreads that can be found cheap that Macdonald, Grubb, et. al. can coach up.

            • Julian

              The reason you sign Leonard Williams is, he’s a fine player in a position of need and affordable on a Jarvon Hargreaves type contract. I don’t think he created extra problems on the Defensive Line last year, more likely prevented them being worse. I think coaching was more likely the main issue, something that hopefully has been resolved over the off season.

            • Rob Staton

              Why wouldn’t it make sense to sign a really good player for his worth at a vital need area?

          • UkAlex6674

            Williams played very, very well on a crap D and D-line. He needs to be resigned.

  12. Zane

    What does everyone think of a Ja’marr Chase comp for Odunze? Chase is a bit better after the catch, but maybe not as good at the catch point.

    • LouCityHawk

      I think he reminds me of Larry Fitzgerald.

      • Peter

        Kind of. Yeah. Though I think Fitzgerald was a bit stronger at the point of contact.

        Just sometimes Odunze is so good I’m not saying he’s not going all out but just it’s almost too easy with a lot if the pac-12 defenders.

      • pdway

        not quite as big – but a little Mike Evans-y to me.

  13. ShowMeYourHawk

    Anyone else think that John is committed to at least matching last season’s record to prove to others, maybe himself, that he can operate without Pete? And, that this may compromise his long term decision making when it comes to the roster this year? If Geno is our Day 1 starter this season, I’m not convinced that it isn’t because John feels starting a newly drafted rookie (or Drew) that may struggle will look poorly upon him and his Pete-free choices. Geno is a safe choice, not an inspired one (that comes with risk). Matching the last few years’ mediocrity would provide him cover from immediate criticism.

    • Parallax

      If that’s the case, he’s an idiot. There are times when one is called upon to be bold. If not now, when? He went big with the coaching staff so we know he’s got it in him.

    • UkAlex6674

      Absolutely none whatsoever and there is no evidence to base this post on at all.

      • ShowMeYourHawk

        So, NO ONE else suspects that John feels added incentive to avoid a large drop off in wins this season? That his first season of Pete-free GM power needs to showcase at least a baseline level of success? Really? 🤷🏽‍♂️

  14. Unio

    Disclaimer – I am and have been a proponent of getting a QBoTF. However, it hasn’t happened and, as Rob delineates so well in this and many other posts, it may not happen this year, either. That said, here’s some food for thought…

    Did anyone notice in the Grubb interview with Stacy and JAG he said a big difference between pros and college is in college you can get away with wasting some plays on offense, whereas in pros you cannot afford to waste plays. Waldron wasted a lot of plays last year with crappy play-calling. When you add in a defense that couldn’t get off the field you get crappy offensive statistics. Seattle was LASTin the NFL in time-of-possession, averaging 4 to 6 minutes less PER GAME than the top 10 ToP teams. That’s huge. At 6minutes/game times 17 games that’s 102 minutes: That’s equivalent to 1-2/3 games across a whole season. This was a major blow to individual player’s stats. For example, Lockett may well have reached 1,000-yds (he had 894), KW3 had 905 rushing so probably would’ve hit 1,000 yds, too.

    If you extrapolate Geno’s stats across a full 17 games (he played 15) plus the additional 102 minutes, his stats would read more like yds – 4624; TDs- 22; INTs – 11 . He would rank T-1st in yds, #11 in TDs. That’s obviously a projection, but it’s worth noting. Plus he had 5 game winning drives and seven 4th qtr comebacks (in 15 games). I gotta think other teams out there have taken notice. There may be better prospects for trading Geno than meets a casual scrutiny.

    • Rob Staton

      What I would say seeing as you brought it up, listening to Ryan Grubb has been a breath of fresh air

      You can just tell he gets it. He inspires confidence in a way Waldron never did

      Huge fan of the support staff they’ve built around him too

      • Elmer

        Do you a possibility of having 3 QB’s on the roster this year? Just for example, Smith, Lock, and a draft choice. There is a cost to keeping a QB3 because it uses a roster spot.

    • UkAlex6674

      Unio thats a great post thank you!

  15. Unio

    I’m watching the Steelers, Jets, and maybe the Falcons and Vikings as teams who might be interested in a veteran QB via trade. The Jets are interesting because their owner took the FO to task for not having a suitable backup to Rodgers. They are in win-now mode and Geno at a cost of $12.5MM (or whatever the current number is) might be attractive. I don’t know what he’d be worth to them but maybe a 3rd given his low cap hit?? Or, maybe Jets trade their #10 pick for Seahawks #16, #81 and Geno? Then Seattle can either get a true blue chip player or find another team to trade back with and get some picks in the meat of the draft. I think that would work better for us than trading with either GB or Phil, who both have two 2nd rd picks. With Quinn being in Wash and them having so much cap, they could maybe be interested in Geno as a bridge to bring Daniels along wisely.

  16. Jeff

    I think the big issue with trading Geno Smith is simply there aren’t many teams right now where he’d make sense.

    Rob identified Pittsburgh (drafting #20) as one possibility. Off the top of my head, the other places he could make sense are Atlanta (drafting #8), Denver (#12), Las Vegas (#13) and basically nowhere else (assuming free agents like Cousins and Mayfield stay with their current teams).

    That’s a market of 4 teams – and there’s probably a decent chance that all four of those teams want to at least see how the draft falls, because there might be a guy they want to draft in the 1st or 2nd round at QB (ie. Penix, Nix, McCarthy, etc).

    So Seattle might be stuck with Geno until at least after the draft when those teams either draft someone, or don’t. And beyond that – there might not be any market for Geno until a veteran starter gets hurt and a contender team gets desperate on a 1 year rental for Geno.

    Downside is obviously that if it’s after the draft, Seattle gets picks for next year instead of this upcoming draft.

    • Pran

      It appears Geno has not rebuilt reputation across the league yet. After all he was a Jet who got punched silly. On top he played only half season good each of the two seasons and nothing to show for in playoffs.

    • Parallax

      I love the draft deadline. A smart GM can obtain real value from teams willing to overpay for aging veterans. We should be sellers. I have no faith that John gets it.

      • PatrickH

        Except this year teams can overpay for aging veterans like Cousins, Tannehill, Minshew, Brisset, etc. without giving up a draft pick. Then there is Russ, who teams can sign for cheap because he is still being paid 30+ millions by the Broncos.

        • GoldenHawk

          Yeah, good point on Russell Wilson being available. That basically knocks out one of the four potentially interested teams, so we’re down to 3 possibles – that again probably want to see what happens in the draft first.

        • GoldenHawk

          And Justin Fields almost certainly gets traded. So now you’re down to 2 teams looking for a QB. And it seems like a decent chance those 2 remaining teams would prefer to take either McCarthy, Nix or Penix and pair them with a cheap vet like Jimmy G, Tannehill, Minshew, rather than give up a draft pick for Geno.

  17. geoff u

    I’m a little concerned about the report that Seattle wouldn’t have taken Richardson were he there at five, because of Geno’s contract…even though it was clearly a one year prove it deal (that’s now turned into a second one year prove it deal). John was seriously willing to sacrifice the future of the franchise because of Geno effing Smith’s one year deal? How truthful do we think this report is? Who did it come from again?

    It’s appalling, if true, and has been gnawing at me since I heard it.

    • Parallax

      I think the report was complete speculation. I don’t place any stock in it. That said, as much as we telegraphed an interest in a QB, I’m pretty sure we weren’t taking one. Can’t blame Schneider for not seeing the potential in Richardson. I didn’t think he was for real. All the tools in the world but never put ’em together until last year before he was injured.

      My sense is Seattle was angling for Anderson. We clearly didn’t fool anyone given Texas’ move to grab him.

      • BK26

        If he didn’t see THAT potential, then that’s a lot of faith in him finding a qb that I will lose.

        Was pretty easy to see what was there with him. Both in college and up until he got hurt.

        • geoff u

          Indeed, especially considering he traded for Whithurst, Lock, and signed Flynn. Not exactly a great evaluation track record there. Though he did draft Wilson once upon a time.

    • Film12Hawk

      I doubt the report is accurate as I distinctly remember after the draft Pete was on with Bump and Stacy talking up Anthony Richardson and how much he liked him. I think it would’ve been a much more difficult decision if they had to choose between him and Devon Witherspoon.

      Here’s the interview.


  18. UkAlex6674

    The key thing here is exactly what you said Rob – this is a fresh set of ideas and thoughts. And this is I think is going to be what we need to do consistently for a good while. Re-assess and evaluate and not look at one specific event as a hard lined pre-determined course.

  19. Julian

    How high will JJ McCarthy go? A good analysis here from Ourlads of his strengths compared to Drake Maye.


  20. samprassultanofswat

    Would love to know what Scot McCloughan thinks about the QBs in the upcoming 2024 NFL draft. Hopefully Rob can snag McCloughan for another interview this year.

    • Big Mike


  21. RainInSpain

    If Grubb is one of the next really good OCs, then the thought might be that he can get the most out of Geno and make this a Superbowl contender in year 1.

    If you make our defense average and then put us in the Lions territory on offense like we’d hoped with Ben Johnson, then we’re more like a contender.

    If you frame it that way, which maybe the Seahawks do among themselves, then retaining Geno makes sense.

    Let’s hope the combo of Grubb and MM move is up the charts 10 slots on each offense and defense.

    • Rob Staton

      I think they would’ve said if that was the plan

    • bk26

      If they are looking at Geno as good enough to win a Super Bowl at all (legitimately, not the rah, rah team sales pitch), I would suddenly be worried.

      • Peter

        My thing would be a bigger worry.

        I actually don’t outright disagree in principle that Geno “could,” win a superbowl. All kinds of things could happen.

        My concern would be this unrelenting lack of realism in viewing the team as a whole.

        Could Geno win a superbowl? Sure. The day k9 or charbonnet turns into Lynch as per results and the day this defense can stop everyone in the league.

        • bk26

          Oh, he very well could win one. If we go young on defense and they spend all year playing like sharks with blood in the water, the o-line gels together, running game is what we always dreamed of? Yes.

          I’ll change my point to if the team doesn’t think that upgrading the position isn’t necessary, then I’m very worried.

          • Peter

            My friend I’m still very worried.

            Geno is just symptomatic of the greater whole. “He’s fine.”

            Yeah I get it KJ Wright and a ton of everyone else. Everything is fine and yet needs to get better. Way Better.

  22. Dave

    TRENCH WARFARE! O-LINE AND D BACKS, cut the fat, create cap space and find draft picks for 2025

  23. Sea Mode

    Not sure what effect he really had, but anyways, there’s that. Probably a sign they didn’t care to retain his services:

    Aaron Wilson

    Ohio State @OhioStateFB hires Brandon Jordan @CoachBTJordan previously #Seahawks and Michigan State @michiganstateu as a defensive program assistant. Highly regarded pass rushing coach has worked with multiple #NFL players, including @RashanAGary @jongreenard7 @SavageSevv @MichaelBrockers @_TJWatt @KPRC2

    • ShowMeYourHawk

      The results certainly weren’t there. Now, he goes to a successful program that recruits five-stars well. Regardless of his actual input into their success, his stock likely goes up.

  24. Mr drucker in hooterville

    They need a QBotF. I believe JS has his eyes on someone and isn’t going to telegraph it. Letting the draft “come to them” screams Rattler in R2or3. There would be no rush to get him in.
    I , for one, would be for taking a step back in W/L record and rebuilding a younger, aggressive roster. Call it tanking if you want. I call it redesign. Cut as much of the high salaries as has been stated (Lockett even), trade down for a R2. Draft and sign players like Rob said (Luvu etc) that fit their profile. Focus on 2025 and beyond. I would see if DK would return a haul. If not, keep him.

    This team needs an enema.

    • bk26

      I think this is almost necessary. Doesn’t have to necessarily be a step down in w/l, but enough roster churn that it could be expected.

      They just need to cut the dead weight/bad contracts. This offseason. They can’t run back this team like Seattle has been doing year after year.

      2025 draft to me is the key (unless they take Rattler; if they do, suddenly everything opens up and gets much more real. And exciting). Trade back from 16, get your bullies, start having teams fear us.

      • Peter

        This is where I’m at. Fine. Just take this opportunity to build. If the qb is there great if not I dont know….go to next year with all your picks and as I’m reading it 67 million in cap space.

        • bk26

          I’ve just really, really soured on the qb’s this year. The home run is there, but the baseline for them to fall back on, the floor, is pretty low. I think next year has more guys that can pan out.

          If they do take someone, ok. There is something to work on. Things change after choices are made. Perspectives change.

          Verse, Chop, Daniels (massive pipe dream), or Maye are the only ones that I would stay at 16 for. Still need to watch more on Maye, but he can sit and watch Geno for the year.

          • Peter

            I don’t mind NIL. In what it’s attempting to do. But will be very glad next year that this odd covid year never ending college thing might be coming to a close.

            As a selfish draft fan I’d hoped that this class was around 2-5 qbs deeper.

            • BK26

              Agreed. Any other year but these last two years and it would have been. Shoot, four years ago there might be another 6-7 guys that came out.

    • Peter

      I’m fine if DK returns a haul but I’m not sure how he would in a draft with as much good WR talent. The only team I think that would be dumb enough to do that is our own team.

      I do agree with 2025. Commenter RaininSpain mentions the superbowl. I hope the coaching is better next year. From Pete, to Dan Campbell, and most others it takes a moment to get there. At this point I’d like a trip to the playoffs where in we get in on our own. Could be fifth, sixth, or seventh seed as long as week 18 does not involve two other teams determining whether we are in or out and ONE win in the playoffs.

      That’s how corny and stale the old regime had become that they couldn’t even do that with extra seeding and extra games in a season to get there.

  25. Peter

    I get pretty heavy eye strain with draft buzzwords. Generational talent. Positional value. Blue chip talent.

    However sometimes these things have merit. Sometimes they are true. Which I will concede.

    Commenter Julian above and a few others have mentioned the potential to stay put or possibly move up for ‘blue chip talent.’ So I’ve been thinking about this a bit with a draft where for me there’s tons of intriguing players but , for me, feels rather light in Blue chip talent. Meaning as I understand it the term players with a proven record of being so good they are top talents.

    Caleb Wiiliams,qb
    Marvin Harrison Jr., WR
    Odunze, WR
    Verse, DL/DE
    Bowers, TE

    Is there anyone I’m missing that has a straight up higher level of viewable talent plus the actual results to say pre-draft they are blue chip players? Not who you, we project to be future stars but straight up have the resumes to prove they have been great in college?

    • LouCityHawk

      I’d add Daniels and Nabers to that list.

      There are a handful of players I’d put in the ‘almost there’ category because college production doesn’t match.

      When I think of blue-chip I think of game altering, top 5 at their position potential. Examples for me would be Chop, Sweat, Jenkins, Trotter….Fashanu and Fuaga….doesn’t have to be top of the draft. I’m going to be watching Cole Bishop very carefully at the combine…as I think he could be one who slips (Mustapha is rising up the boards and DeJean is going to go early).

      • Peter

        Yeah Nabers. Daniels production was pretty off the charts.

        There’s lots I like. You get it though. Beyond a really very small amount of players ( 3 wr’s?!) It’s more about thinking a player is someone that the league will go “damn, should have drafted them.”

        DL is a big need for me. Both that the team needs it and kind of John and the scouts not named Nagy ( who apparently pounded the table for j. Reed) need to show they can actually find one or more in the draft at some point. There’s names to like. Different styles. Yet none so far look like physical freaks ( jenkins maybe?) And/or absolutely crushed it in college.

        Re: Sweat. I’ve been on this ride a long old time. I dint think this will effect his draft stock one way or the other. But I see his combine going one of two ways. He either Dontari Poe’s the thing. Or day of pulls out of a bunch of drills electing to try to get into better fitness for his pro day. It happens quite often with the big boys.

        • LouCityHawk

          The way I see it, Sweat or Jackson is a must, there are no other big NTs who are difference makers at that position.

          You’ve nailed Sweat at the combine, he is all about coaching at the next level, if he unlocks potential, nightmarish

          There are lots of 3-4 DE/4-3 DT that have attractive profiles, but really need the space eater to thrive. Newton, Jenkins, Ruke, Trice, etc….

          This is the interplay with cuts and FA. Even with L/W resigned, I’d like to see a double dip at DL

          • Peter

            When I do “just for me unrealistic drafts,” I always take zinter, Mustapha, and two Dlinemen. Sweat, ruke,Jackson, jenkins, eboigbe, Murphy. I almost don’t care as long as it’s two.

            It just takes too long to get dlinemen really rolling and with two good older guys (reed, williams) it feels like a smart move.

  26. Jeff Cole

    One of the reasons I felt like Pete Carroll’s career as the HFC in Seattle was over was when it became crystal clear he had lost the team, at least in terms of defensive effort, AKA tackling. For what felt the first time in his tenure players were making ‘business decisions’, avoiding contact in what looked like self-preservation. The biggest offenders were Quandre Diggs and ‘Riq Woolen. Quandre needs to go, and if Woolen can net the Hawks a high second rounder he should too. Maybe in Riq’s case it’s indicative of him feeling like he over performed his contract in year one, but I don’t know. Could be problematic, also could be addressed during the draft with the selection of TJ Tampa if Seattle does move Woolen.

    • Big Mike

      It’ll be very interesting to see if Woolen stays and if he does, how he plays this next season. Was it an injury or just a negative influence from Diggs and Adams?

      • Peter

        Hoping it was injury + coaching + lame leadership.

        Hard to give up on a freaky athlete, DROY candidate who costs a million bucks.

        I’m also of the mind that when you start shopping your players the markets starts very low….I’m looking at you Mike Salk and your brain worm take on trading DK.

        • DougM

          His coverage grade is still very good and I think with coaching his run defense will improve.

          • Peter

            We need more good players not less.

    • Peter


      I felt like it was over starting with week one. We’ve had some sloppy starts but I don’t recall ever hearing about teams wanting it more.

      Then Thanksgiving when Seattle was made to look like total frauds that had been feasting on little sisters of the poor level teams.

      If this had been a hyper unhinged SEC program or an Al davis type owner he might have recieved his walking papers when the Ravens pulled their starting qb for most of the fourth quarter.

    • Group Captain Mandrake

      There is no way the hawks get a second for Woolen. Why would a team give up that much capital to get a guy with tackling issues and who isn’t the finished product? Plus it just leaves them with another hole to fill.

  27. GF

    Could it be that we are looking like the Rams? Will we have to go for an NFL QB and not one from the draft? Someone like Allen who gets tired of the situation in the Bills? …… Rob why do they say that the next draft will be bad in terms of QB? Ewers, Sanders, Riley Leonard, maybe Drew Allar…. and others who surely declare, I don’t think it’s a bad class

    • Peter

      Next year’s class will be bad to prop up how “good” this class is. Six qbs may go round one to rival the ’83 class. Though I highly doubt three qbs this year will have careers to rival Elway,Marino, and Kelly.

      Six qbs first round seems amazing but I’ve got a tiny hunch that we will see more qbs going early in the near future. Maybe not every year but the run off effect of the ’22,’21,’20 draft is going to be real.

      Add to that if a guy typing on a blog while drinking coffee can see that perennially paying 28-35 million for a retread is a bad investment and getting even a mid qb for cheaper and restarting the clock ( if they dont work) after year three ala the bears is the move….I have to think more and more gms will see that as well.

    • geoff u

      The real question is, do you think we’ll be in any better of a spot next year to draft Ewers/Sanders/Leonard than we are this year to draft Williams/Daniels/Maye?

      • geoff u

        Or last year to get Young/Stroud/Richardson? I mean, last year sitting at #5 was our best chance to move up without giving up too much and JS/PC sat on their hands. Picking at 16 or worse you’ll have to give up your whole draft.

        • Peter

          I get your drift but they are just going to have to bite the bullet.

          1. Do the thing

          2. Get very, very lucky later. Wilson, rodgers, Lamar.

          3. Design an offense that is not reliant on a star. Purdy.

          4. Trade your most valuable asset in franchise history for extra picks….tried that and obviously that didn’t work.

        • BK26

          I think with the infusion of new rookies after this class, there will be fewer teams than normal looking for qb’s. Still expect there to be quite a few, just not like this year (who also waited on last year in some cases).

          There are teams in between like the Broncos and Vikings that are acting like it is crucial to draft someone now. I also expect some guys to get propped up (a la Bryce Young, McCarthy, Maye) based off of where they go (cough*Carson Beck, the next Michigan kid, etc).

          I think overall it will be deep enough that we might not have to reach/trade up like this year.

          • geoff u

            Maybe, might, possibly, or we waste another year rolling with Geno/Lock. At some point management needs to do something big at the QB position or all these last few years of good drafts and coaching hires will be moot.

            • Peter

              Needs to be next year or else. Mafe, walker,healthy lucas, reinvigorated woolen will all be getting paid or moved on.

              • geoff u

                Pinning it all on perpetually waiting till next year is what got the last coach fired…

  28. Daniel D.

    The biggest change I foresee with the higher-than-expected cap is the flexibility to keep Lockett even with his cap hit. The marginal flexibility from cutting him was never that great. Now you’re less concerned about the overall hit.

    Metcalf and JSN are great, and still, the WR room is a different place without that dude.

    • Patrick Toler

      Tyler looked done down the stretch. He can still be a good WR3, but you save 7M against the 2024 cap by cutting him and you are free and clear of any future obligations. Or save 19M with a post June 1st cut. Seattle is still relatively up against it vs most of the league.

    • cha

      The biggest change I foresee with the higher-than-expected cap

      It shouldn’t change a thing.

      Not one thing.

  29. Forrest

    Am I the only one who believes the Hawks can have an explosive offense in 2024? With a good guard added and a healthy RT, I believe Grubb can get Geno, DK, Lockett, JSN, Dissly and our two RBs to look at lot like the Huskies’ offense looked this year. There are so many similarities. I actually think all the pieces are there.

    • Unio

      I believe. My desire is the team start by being really formidable on one side of the ball. We’re closest on offense. The SeaHawks with a few additions on the OL have the potential to be a Top 5 offense. Geno plays best with a strong play-action offense and when he gets consistent and solid protection. We have some awesome weapons with DK, JSN and Lockett at WR, KW3 and Charbonnet at RB, and I’m pretty sure we can figure out TE. Then, if we can just get to a Top15-20 defense by adding by subtraction and our new HC’s genius, we could be a 11-12 game win team in 2024.

  30. Palatypus

    The Bears have the #1 and #9 picks in the draft and $78 million in cap space.

    How are they going to screw this up?

    • DougM

      They’ll figure out a way.

    • LouCityHawk

      1. They couldn’t manage Cade McNown, how are they going to manage Caleb Williams reported entourage?

      2. Waldron is hired by Jets in 2025 cycle

      3. Kinchens is pick #9

      4. They trade back into the first to select Marist Liafu

    • geoff u

      By drafting JJ McCarthy

  31. Craig Mckellar

    Another top notch, high content piece. I just don’t see any of the plans leading to a Super Bowl contender for several years.

  32. Roy Batty

    The more I look at the top 100, the more I’m inclined to believe the Hawks may very well trade down twice. The first trade could be a minor move, 2-4 spots. That gives them room to pull off another trade down into the late 20’s, or even out of the first and into the high 2nd.

    There are so many good players available that fill holes in the roster. Players that won’t be a reach at their pick locations. Some, like safety, might very well be the top of their class.

    It really depends on the rush on trade partners and, of course, priorities on the Hawks big board. Also, if they get a good 2nd rounder in the first trade down.

    Would they be willing to stick at, say 25, if there is a prospect that is marginally better than another prospect who will go in the top half of the 2nd? That extra 5th year option might be a tipping point, but so too might an extra pick this year or next year.

    It will also be a tell if they accept picks for 2025. I doubt they will, but who knows how desperate another team might become and end up offering a really good pick in 2025 as an overpay?

    I’m really loving this year’s abundance of scenarios. It has me really amped for this year, even more than last year.

    • Palatypus

      Unfortunately, I think a few teams in front of us are going to trade down before we get the chance. I’m looking at New Orleans, who just restructured Erik McCoy and Derek Carr and are still $40 million over the cap. The Jets are in about the same situation we are, but the players that they want may be off the board.

      To get under the cap, New Orleans is probably going to have to trade Alvin Kamara and Marcus Lattimore. At least that’s what I have heard. That’s why I brought up the Bears earlier. Not that they would do it, but they could give New Orleans the #9 for the #14 and both players. And probably additional picks.

  33. HawksForLife

    I think that we are slightly better off cap wise than people think. Cutting each of Jamal, Mone and Bellore will really not make the team any worse. Cutting Quandre and Dissly will be easily manageable too. Jordyn Brooks is not a huge priority, really. A liability in pass coverage. I think that we should just clean up the roster and build OL/DL. Skill positions are fine, save maybe for TE. We need to be careful with FAs, both Jamal Adams and Dremont Jones being cautionary examples. Top money big FA signings are risky. Leonard Williams may be the exception but losing a 2nd rounder for him was steep. We have the inner workings of a competitive team once both lines are improved, especially DL. Beyond that TE and LB need help. But that should be doable. Let a good QB project fall to us at an opportune point in this or the next draft. Don’t push it. And above all, no funny FA signings. That Jamal Adams trade was really bad. Trying to forcefully land the second coming of Kam at an obscene cost for a scheme that no longer featured a box safety.

    • Rob Staton

      I’m not sure people realise how quickly any created cap space will evaporate when the market opens

      $30m these days is nothing

      • LouCityHawk

        This is why Lockett may be a cap casualty…I’ve stopped talking abiut this as an option though.

        Generally talk about trading Russell 😒
        Talk about moving on from Carroll 😠
        Talk about trading Geno 😡
        Talk about cutting Lockett 🤬

        • Peter

          There’s the regular round up of dreamers on YouTube and people playing 4d madden in their minds where we magically have the money for 51 players plus Chris Jones, plus madbuike, plus queen.

          Feel like FA is going to be a little more like basic training: you’ll get what you get and you’ll like it.

          Tyler: it’s time for some folks to “have the talk.”

          • LouCityHawk

            The sad thing is there are legit talents at multiple positions of need that won’t be franchised or require top $$$.

            Looking for those deals is what will break or make teams this off-season.

            And when you look at some of the WR talent that will be in Day 3 simply because of necessity it’s a bit disquieting. People want Blue Chips? How about Corley and Legette potentially lasting until day 3?

      • HawksForLife

        There are also non-monetary reasons to fire those guys. Jamal for injuries and failing up show up for OTAs. Besides, he is a box safety for a single high safety scheme. We abandoned that long ago. Quandre for refusing to tackle. It’s one thing if you are a converted WR cornerback still learning to tackle and a different thing if you are a vereran Pro Bowl safety. Mone for injuries and lack of production. Dissly for the same reasons. Bellore as a luxury trinket we cannot afford. Eskridge for being Eskridge. Time to clean the shop.

    • HawksForLife

      Fair. I do think that more like MUSD 45 can be saved with obvious cut candidates, though Jamal would have to be a post June cut. Should help us retain Leonard Williams and Wagner or Fant. That’s before Jamal savings, which could help us land solid depth piece veterans at DL and OL late in the Summer. My point being that cutting Jamal, Quandre, Mone, Bellore, Dissly, Eskridge etc. won’t make the team any worse, really. We have weirdly invested cap, especially with safeties.

  34. samprassultanofswat

    I think John Schneider wants to start a new era with his guy as QB. I think JS would like to trade Geno Smith. But I don’t think he is finding any takers. At least what JS wants for Geno. Who knows maybe he has not gotten any offers period.

    The twit from Adam Schefter may have back fired on JS. It almost looks like JS is desperate to trade Geno. Yes. By having Adam put that twit out there. It looks like JS wants to get rid of him. Teams are saying why does JS want to trade Geno?

    If a team wanted to trade for a veteran it makes more sense to trade for Justin Fields. I am not saying that Fields is better than Geno Smith. In fact Geno Smith might even be a better QB than Fields(debatable who is better). But Geno Smith will be 34 before the season starts. Justin Fields will only be 25 when the 2024 season starts. Plus Justin Fields is a dynamic runner which Geno Smith is not. So I think if a franchise is willing to trade for a veteran QB it probably makes more sense to trade a first round pick for Fields instead of trading a 3rd round or a 4th round pick for Geno Smith.

    There are least two teams (Pittsburg, Atlanta), maybe more that are looking to trade for a veteran QB. Maybe if Justin Fields is traded than another team might be interested in trading for Geno. However, Russell Wilson could be released by the Broncos so you wouldn’t have to trade for Russell Wilson.

    • Patrick Toler

      I agree that John likely is hungry to draft his QB of the future. But he has seen his previous teams draft a young QB while holding on to their veteran for multiple years three times (Favre/Rogers, Mahomes/Smith, Rogers/Love). We will see what happens with Love’s development, but it looks like all three worked out spectacularly.
      I think John will be much more comfortable holding onto Geno while drafting a QB than most fans.

    • Group Captain Mandrake

      According to the local news in Pittsburgh, the Stealers are not looking to trade for a qb and will decide between Rudolph and Pickett. Is that true? No idea but that’s what beat reporters are saying there.

      • Rob Staton

        The owner said they were open to a veteran trade, then the locals started reporting this

        I’m sure that’s a total coincidence and definitely not trying to salvage leverage…

        • Palatypus

          They could probably get Jameis Winton for nothing.

    • Blitzy the Clown

      I’d trade a R4 for Smith before I threw away a R1 on Fields, who may be a much more dynamic player but will never come close to being as good a passer as Smith. Why waste a R1 pick on a QB who in all likelihood will be the limiting factor on offense?

      Sadly, it doesn’t look like anyone wants him for that price (yet). And given the cost sunk into him for 2024, they can’t really afford to let him go for less than that.

      I’m okay with it. It’s clear they’re constrained by the market and the draft and have few options.

  35. Gaux Hawks

    geno should net us a second rounder… not sure if there’s a team out there that can easily toss us a second… but think it’s fair compensation considering his skills and cap hit.

    should be a win win trade for both sides.

    • Rob Staton

      Why should he?

      It’s beyond wishful to think they could get a R2

      • Brodie

        We paid two 1’s, a 3 and a player for a box safety. We also paid a 2 & 5 for a 10 game rental if a DT who led us to a last placed defense…

        Just takes one

        • UkAlex6674

          LW led the team to that did he?

        • bmseattle

          What did we give up for Charlie Whitehurst?
          A 2nd and a 3rd?
          Man… we sure do have a history of overpaying in trades.

          I think the seahawks fanbase’s unreasonable expectations for what we can get for our own players, is influenced by what we’ve given up for guys we’ve traded for.

          • Rob Staton

            The Whitehurst trade was a R3 and a swap of picks in round two

            A really, really, really shit trade

            • geoff u

              But think of all the clipboard Jesus jokes we would’ve missed out on. It’s like Jamal, the joke that keeps on giving

        • Rob Staton

          And it was a totally insane trade

          If Jamal Adams had been a free agent the year before and went back to New York for essentially a slightly better ‘prove-it’ deal laden with incentives, and then Seattle traded all that for him, I think you’d have a point

          Instead the whole league went, ‘nah it’ll be fine’ (© Critical Drinker) when Geno was a free agent. Twelve months on, they’re not going to give us a R2 pick

      • Fudwamper

        Why should he? Because QB’s are always paid at a stupid premuim.

        Does it make sense, no. I wouldn’t do it but It’s just something the NFL does. I think a mid/late 2nd rounder is not all that outlandish when we are taking about serviceable QBs.

        • Rob Staton

          I think it’s beyond outlandish

          Teams don’t trade R2 picks for career journeymen who’ve had a bit of success in their 30’s with one team

    • Group Captain Mandrake

      I just don’t see a 34 year old middle of the road qb getting a second.

  36. Shibu

    While my preference would be to trade Geno for anything and start a new era at QB, the more I think on it, the more I am open to keeping him for another year and having a QB we take within the first 3 rounds sit behind him for a year. We’ve talked extensively about Geno being a bridge QB, and I think he can be a great mentor to a young QB, just as he has done for Lock. Bring in Penix or Rattler and let them sit behind Geno for a year and then pass them the torch to be our version of the Alex Smith-Mahomes transition.

  37. DougM

    Hey Rob,
    I appreciate the effort you put into this blog and am happy to support your efforts thru Patreon. I have read most of your posts for about the last 4 years. In reference to the Mayock post, I cannot relate to past drafts. When I began I started watching tape and quickly realized that I didn’t know what the hell I was doing and it takes entirely to much time. Therefore I depend on you and other draft nerds to do that for me. But the thing is everyone has their own opinion, many times agreeing and often not.
    So one thing I like to do early in draft season is compile my on lists based on production statistics mainly off of PFF premium stats. When I compile lists for each position, it helps me familiarize names and helps identify players who might be getting overlooked. You listed the traits of T’vondre Sweat. It should be no surprise that he is #1 on the DT list. Also Kitan Oladapo is #2 on the safety list; Marshawn Kneeland, edge #2; Payton Wilson and Edefuan Ulofoshio #1 and #2; Ben Sinnott and Cade Stover, #1 and #2; Malik and Tahj Washington, #1 and #2; Cooper Beebe and Christian Haynes, #1 and #2, but with new names added from Tony Pauline’s list, Mason McCormick and Michael Jurgens are 1 and 2; Joe Alt and Patrick Paul, 1 and 2; on Pauline’s list at center #’s 2, 3 and 4 are Willie Lampkin, Jacob Likes and Duke Clemens.

  38. Troy

    In regards to Geno, maybe we have to accept that John tried to trade him but there was market/takers.

    Consider, his reputation was that of a back up. He had an up and down season, then had exactly 0 market next offseason.

    It could be that no matter how Geno performs, he just won’t be a guy that another GM wants. Remember how Luck was viewed better than Russel for years due to draft position.

    So it seems JS is stuck with Geno, however I think he will strongly try to draft his QBOTF in order to cut loose from Geno next year.

    Basically geno is that old, worn, reliable blanket that had value to one person but no one else, and when John realized that he accepted his fate with the restructure.

  39. RomeoA57

    If I can steal from the great Clubber Lang, my prediction is “Pain”.

    First, the Seahawks may have to cut or not bring back some good players like Lockett or LW or a Legend like Wagner.

    Secondly, the Seahawks will probably not have enough cap space to be in serious contention for any Blue Chip players in the upcoming Free Agency

    Third, the Seahawks are right in the middle of the draft order. They also don’t have a 2nd Round pick which could be used to bolster the line-of-scrimmage.

    • Patrick Toler

      Williams and Bobby don’t have to be cut, as they are free agents. And is Lockett even a good player any more? It depends on your definition of good I suppose. Additionally there usually aren’t any true blue chip players in FA anyway. Seattle can make enough space to sign a backloaded deal for almost any available player they want to sign, depending on how aggressive they want to be.
      Being at the top of the draft order obviously helps you find studs, but Rob recently showed that the list of top 100 players in the league is full of players drafted outside the top 10.

    • Elmer

      LW is “big cat”. Turn the pages back many years and you come to another Williams who was known as “ big cat”. Cleveland Williams, heavyweight boxer who fought Muhammad Ali for the title. It’s worth watching that match on You Tube. Ali at his finest, nobody would have beaten him that day.

      • Mike


  40. Rob Staton

    7238 words written for this years’ ‘Ultimate Seahawks Combine Preview’

    And I’m only about two-thirds through 😂

    • Troy

      Very much looking forward to your combine coverage as I’ll be traveling/working so won’t be able to catch much of the live tv coverage.

    • Sea Mode


    • Peter

      About time. It’s only been like nine things you’ve written or recorded in the last seven days.

    • ShowMeYourHawk

      “…and then, my space key fell off the keyboard.”

    • Fudwamper

      That sounds like a good read.

      Also thanks for continuing to do print. I so much more enjoy it than video.

    • samprassultanofswat

      Rob: You are amazing.

  41. Sea Mode

    Well, crud. If true, get some help, bro.


    • PJ in Seattle

      His prior suspended sentence is now unsuspended. FFS, I don’t understand how these guys refuse to use Uber.

      • Big Mike

        I don’t understand how anyone doesn’t use Uber/Lyft. In the old days you might have to wait an awfully long time for a cab but now with 2 rideshare companies and drivers trying to make money meaning plenty of cars available, it’s simply asinine.
        Get some damned help Sherm!!

  42. PJ in Seattle

    My fucking around with hella trade downs mock:

    48. McKinnley Jackson – DT Texas A&M
    76. Kris Jenkins – DT Michigan
    78. Michael Penix Jr. – QB Washington
    81. Edgerrin Cooper – LB Texas A&M
    82. Kiran Amegadjie – OT Yale
    87. Cedric Gray – LB North Carolina
    96. Xavier Legette – WR South Carolina
    119. Cole Bishop – S Utah
    149. Kitan Oladapo – S Oregon State
    167. Jared Wiley – TE TCU
    169. Jaylan Ford – LB Texas
    173. Kalen King – CB Penn State
    194. Trevor Keegan – OG Michigan
    209. Luke McCaffrey – WR Rice
    233. Erick All – TE Iowa
    2025 IND 2nd
    2025 IND 3rd

    Would never happen but, my god, that would be one hell of a youth movement!

  43. samprassultanofswat

    Palatypus “The Bears have the #1 and #9 picks in the draft and $78 million in cap space.

    How are they going to screw this up?”

    They already have. They hired Shane Waldron

    • Palatypus

      So, I guess Jameis Winston is on his way.

      • Tomas

        Schneider will be fired within 2 years … he hasn’t a clue.

        • samprassultanofswat

          “Schneider will be fired within 2 years … he hasn’t a clue.”

          NO WAY!

        • Mr drucker in hooterville

          We don’t know his end game. Bring this up in 12 months with some data.

          • Palatypus

            I think Brent Spiner is here for Pensacon. Want me to find him?

  44. ShowMeYourHawk


    The mystery of what NFL teams dislike about Eric Bieniemy’s personality continues….

    • Palatypus

      “Builder and maker of men” might mean you can’t compromise as a GM when it comes to character. I understand you don’t want to draft someone like Frank Clark, but sometimes there are few options.

  45. Palatypus

    How did I miss this?


    • bmseattle

      I’m glad that DE’s leg wasn’t planted, or that would have been a *very* nasty injury.

      • Palatypus

        I’m guessing he’ll jump well at the combine.

    • ShowMeYourHawk

      OH, MY. I want this. Now. Hopefully, he’s still available after a trade down.

      • Palatypus

        I used to know this guy named Wilis who played linebacker for the Giants with Lawrence Taylor, Carl Banks, and Harry Carsons. This reminds me of how he would describe Joe Jacoby.

  46. Harold Kosanke

    Was pondering why the Seahawks have been bringing up Lock. Maybe get us use to the idea of Geno-Lock being the QB corp again and selling Lock as the “future”. Hope that isn’t the plan.

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