Spencer Rattler — a very different player these days
This is a deep quarterback class, rather than one like last year where we see three go in the top-five. I suspect opinions within the league will be varied — with a lot of different grades being offered. It could end up being a very unpredictable class as a consequence.
Since September I’ve been building a horizontal board. Currently I have only one quarterback with a ‘legit’ round one grade but I have four others I would consider taking in round one, with another I think can get into that mix before the end of the college season.
With a lot of quarterback talk this week I wanted to put down some thoughts. Personally, I think the Seahawks should be looking to draft a QB next year. I believe they will.
For context, I had zero quarterbacks graded before round three in 2022 (the Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder, Matt Corral, Malik Willis class) and this year I had the top four ranked in this order — C.J. Stroud, Will Levis, Anthony Richardson, Bryce Young.
Caleb Williams (QB, USC)
He does things we’ve never seen before. His improvisation skill is remarkable, he makes throws on the run that are not of this planet. His ability to dodge tacklers is remarkable. His technical quality when he does stay in structure is good. He’s a strong athlete with a thick, sturdy frame. His arm strength is excellent. The only worry is he’s a risk-taker — he has a ridiculous 16 turnover-worthy plays this year (yet only 4% TWP rate). He’s a special talent who will be the #1 pick in the 2024 draft.
Spencer Rattler (QB, South Carolina)
In terms of pure talent, he’s competing with Quinn Ewers to be second behind only Caleb Williams. Rattler is QB2 on my horizontal board currently. He has everything — easy arm strength, improvisation, accuracy, creativity, mobility — and now he’s playing within structure. Long gone are the days at Oklahoma where he’d go out, trust his arm too much and chuck passes into double and triple coverage (leading to his benching for Caleb Williams). He’s also a changed personality. Listen to any of his interviews. Gone is the teenager you saw on ‘that’ documentary years ago. He’s a totally different person these days. Every week he makes NFL throws despite a ridiculous amount of pressure. Watch how he played against Georgia for example, keeping a bad team in the game against a SEC powerhouse on the road. He’d get more attention if he wasn’t playing behind a hopeless O-line giving up 4.6 sacks a game (third most in college football) and 145 pressures (also third most). He doesn’t benefit from playing in a wide-open spread system against terrible defenses either — the offense has pro-concepts and he’ll enter the league better prepared than most. Rattler has battled adversity, has been humbled and he’s grown as a player and individual. He should be talked about as a first round talent.
Drake Maye (QB, North Carolina)
He’s tall, athletic and has a good arm. His good moments are very good but sometimes he can be reckless trying to force plays. Maye officially only has six turnover-worthy plays this year but the ones he has had stick in the mind. I also think he’s praised for overly risky plays that improbably come off too often that don’t get counted as TWP’s. At the next level, I fear his luck will run out quite quickly (in a way I don’t feel about Caleb Williams). He’s suffered a couple of poor losses too but will be a high pick because he looks the part. He can make all the throws, he’s good on the run and it’s very easy to watch him and just imagine him playing in the league. Talk in the media of him being better than Williams is for the birds though. He’s sacked 2.5 times per game.
Quinn Ewers (QB, Texas)
As naturally talented as they come with easy arm strength, mobility, the ability to deliver layered throws and he’s showing gradual improvement as he gains more experience. The closer you study Ewers, the more you appreciate what he’s capable of (while acknowledging he’s not the finished article). He flicks his wrist to deliver downfield bombs in a way not too dissimilar to Aaron Rodgers (seriously). He’s had some issues with deep-ball accuracy but it has started to come along — and the loft and placement, not to mention the distance, he generates with his throws is elite level. He played a starring role in one of the wins of the season at Alabama. Playing for Steve Sarkisian helps and he’ll come into the league with a decent background and experience. You’ll never have to worry about his release in the NFL — he can get it out quickly and there are throws on tape where he shows excellent anticipation. He’s a deceptive athlete and can make reasonable gains as a runner. There’s still some erraticism he needs to work on and he’s missed games recently with a shoulder injury. That said, I can well imagine he’ll be loved by scouts who will appreciate his technical quality and potential. Texas’ O-line is giving up 1.9 sacks per game. He could easily be a first rounder.
Michael Penix Jr (QB, Washington)
Arm talent for days and consistently makes ‘wow’ throws. Some of his passes have to be seen to be believed — driving into small windows across the field between defenders for example, touch passes to the deep-sideline or the throw on the run to his left against USC that was one of the plays of the season. That said, he very rarely faces pressure (0.7 sacks per game, third fewest in the NCAA) and he plays pitch-and-catch to multiple NFL receivers behind an O-line featuring a top-20 pick at left tackle. His technique requires him to put his body into throws and this won’t be conducive with the quicker game at the next level where he’ll face constant pressure and need to deliver passes on time. Struggled in two games where he faced consistent pressure and 50% of his pressures this season (39/78) came in three consecutive games (Oregon, Arizona State, Stanford). Seven interceptions so far this year feels high given the environment and opponents (Bo Nix has only two picks). Sometimes he throws to areas rather than aiming (see the number of incompletions downfield this year). Injury history is a question mark. I think Penix is a day-two pick who will need to sharpen his release and would better suit an offense that prefers downfield shots over methodical, layered passes.
Riley Leonard (QB, Duke)
An extreme athlete who is yet to fully develop into a consistent passer. Excellent character and grit. Drove Duke to new levels before his injury and there’s a lot of potential here. Josh Allen was once very raw as a passer with outstanding physical tools. Leonard doesn’t have Allen’s cannon arm or unique size but a patient team could end up with a diamond due to his upside. Has a number of highlight-reel runs and would be an immediate threat to break contain and deliver explosive plays. His accuracy can be a fraction off at times but there’s also evidence of key throws on third and fourth down where he’s on the money in pressure situations. Has only three big-time throws this season — but also only six turnover-worthy plays. Recently suffered a high-ankle sprain vs Notre Dame, only to rush back when he should’ve been protected. Has now suffered another injury as a consequence. This could impact his stock or decision to turn pro — he’s been poorly handled by Duke.
Will Howard (QB, Kansas State)
Yes he’s had some lousy turnovers (eight interceptions) but Howard is big (6-5, 240lbs), strong, more athletic than you think and he makes layered throws into tight windows. He has shown he can throw with great anticipation before receivers turn for the football and he can deliver accurate passes downfield. His game against Texas was mightily impressive and showed what he’s capable of (it was also a nice palate cleanser after his ugly display against Oklahoma State). Howard is sacked 1.8 times per game. He could turn into a bargain for someone if he lasts to round three. There’s definitely something here and it won’t be a surprise if he makes a career in the league. I’d love to see him at the Senior Bowl.
Bo Nix (QB, Oregon)
Credit to Nix for going to Oregon and turning his career around. He’s a good athlete with a decent arm and in the right system he could have a shot. Yet there’s so many high percentage, easy, short throws in the Ducks’ offense, it’s hard to get a read on how any of this translates. It’s all quick-tempo, dump-off, throw to the flat. Then the occasional bomb. It’s a very user-friendly system. He’s sacked only 0.5 times a game and he’s only faced 48 pressures, which is crazy. He also consistently faces overmatched opponents. It’s a dream setting and you’d expect anyone to thrive. The physical tools will appeal but I get the sense he’ll be a mid-rounder. There’s also the Auburn experience. With respect to the much-improved PAC-12 this year, there’s also a lot of chaff in the conference. This has been a perfect setting for a Nix comeback tour. In the SEC, he struggled badly. Auburn was chaotic, sure. But his disastrous experience surely has to play some part in the evaluation.
Tyler Van Dyke (QB, Miami)
A big pocket-passer who, at his best, can make wonderful timing throws to all levels and look the part. Sadly there are also too many mental mistakes and some poor turnovers. He has a high number of turnover-worthy plays this year (12). He’s not the most mobile either (although there’s evidence of some decent boot-leg work). His feet can get quite heavy in the pocket and he’s not going to improvise and create. In the right offense where he’s developed to read and throw he could have some success but at the moment he looks like a third or fourth-rounder. Modern NFL teams value escapability, improv and the ability to extend plays and TVD will struggle there.
JJ McCarthy (QB, Michigan)
I’m struggling to understand the first round talk. Michigan haven’t been tested this year and every game they play is a blow-out. He’s like the reverse-Rattler — gaining attention partly due to the domination of his team as they beat-up a laughably easy schedule, perfectly crafted to try and get to an unbeaten season. His toughest opponent so far has been either Minnesota or Nebraska — both 5-4. He’s sacked 1.2 times per game compared to Rattler’s 4.6 times. McCarthy lacks the big physical tools and even against mediocre opponents there have been inaccurate throws, misses and he has a tendency to place passes just behind open targets. He moves around well and it’s surprising how mobile he is to extend plays. He has delivered some very creative (and impressive) throws. I just think he needs another year to get stronger (he’s a shade over 200lbs at 6-3 — he needs to be bigger). I want to see him drive passes with more velocity and fine-tune his accuracy. The latest talk, however, is he’ll declare for 2024. I’ve given him a mid-round grade for now.
Cameron Ward (QB, Washington State)
Creative, mobile, reasonable arm and he (along with Josh Kelly) make every Washington State game watchable. He hasn’t been helped by the collapse around him and he’s started to force things. Suddenly he’s up to 16 turnover-worthy plays for the season. He’s faced 129 pressures — seventh most in college football, while his O-line is giving up 3.1 sacks per game (23rd most). I think he’ll be a very worthwhile pick for someone on day three, perhaps in the DTR range from this year (R4-5).
Jordan Travis (QB, Florida State)
Compact, athletic frame and while he lacks big tools he can get the ball to his key playmakers. He has 18 ‘big time throws’ this season. He’s a difficult projection because the way he moves around he’s clearly got a nice combination of agility, quickness and the ability to be creative on the run. You just wonder if he can get the ball out on time into layered areas within a pro-structure, or whether the arm is quite good enough to threaten teams downfield. I’ve watched games where he’s a difference maker but then you also wonder, is he going to have limitations at the next level? Ultimately I think he’ll need to prove himself as a mid-round type.
Brady Cook (QB, Missouri)
Another player I’m surprised doesn’t get more attention. He’s led Mizzou brilliantly this year, making big-time plays in most games and the Tigers are really competitive in the SEC. He has 21 big-time throws. Cook is a strong runner when he needs to set off, he can be very useful throwing on the run but he also changes his arm angle with throws and can layer passes to different levels. After a strong start avoiding turnovers (zero in his first five games) it’s gone a bit south recently (five in his last four) but that did include games against Georgia and LSU. Cook has also played through an injury this season. He might not declare and he could do with adding some extra bulk (6-2, 205lbs) but he’s a player I’ve enjoyed watching this season and there’s talent here, even if he’s not destined to be a high pick.
Michael Pratt (QB, Tulane)
Better arm than you’d think and he’s taken Tulane to new heights. He has been inconsistent at times this year in terms of accuracy. I’ll never forget the game against Oklahoma at the start of last season, where Pratt played like a man possessed in an attempt to cause a major upset. He also led his team to a huge Bowl win against USC. He’s accepted a Senior Bowl invite and attending Mobile could do his stock the power of good. Appears well thought of by team-mates. Has missed time through injury. His O-line is giving up 1.8 sacks per game and he has 12 ‘big time throws’ this year to go with eight turnover-worthy plays. Early day-three feels like a ceiling.
Jayden Daniels (QB, LSU)
A good athlete with a decent arm who has been credited with 23 ‘big time throws’ this season — a very high number. However, he’s very much a ‘one-read and run’ quarterback. At the next level he’ll need to start from scratch to learn to process a defense and make progressions. LSU’s line gives up 2.1 sacks per game. There’s athletic potential here for sure but I’m not convinced his draft stock will be that high. Equally, I wouldn’t bet against him sticking in the league. It’s just a case of how well he can transition away from basically just reading what he’s told to read from the sideline and when it isn’t there, setting off and running every play.
Players playing in the most ‘translatable’ environments
This means facing pressure, systems that contain pro-concepts and aren’t half-field or ultra-spread and taking on difficult opponents consistently
Spencer Rattler, Quinn Ewers, Riley Leonard, Will Howard
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Great stuff Rob.
Right now I don’t think the Seahawks will draft a QB. I think they should but I don’t think they will.
That’s just where I’m at. I hope they do.
I think it’s almost certain they will, short of something unexpected happening between now and February.
Almost every sign points towards ‘drafting a qb’? Is this just a gut feeling?
My fear is they pull a Collier at QB.
Meant to reply to Thomas
Why do you think? I’m genuinely asking and not trying to just argue. There isnt a ton of glaring weaknesses on the team now and PC has spoken somewhat realistically about Geno recently, at least in Pete speak.
I agree that they should draft a QB. But I too am afraid that they might not. They like Geno and Lock and their performance will have to be BAAAD to change the team’s mind.
A quick thought on the defense. They need to bring BBK back – as a tackling coach. Teams that tackle well don’t give up 298 yards rushing.
Totally understand the concern. Carroll can be so stubborn.
Can I also say, I’m saddened today by the news that underclassmen are now going to be permitted to compete at the Senior Bowl and Shrine Game.
This is the NFL being greedy again, wanting to dominate off-season headlines and probably trying to find ways to compete with NIL money.
Events like the Senior Bowl are a great reward for players who stick it out in college, work on their craft and earn the right to compete in Mobile. Now, I suspect the SB have been forced to accept this latest decision and put on a brave face because the league for some reason is trying to push the Shrine Game as a competitor. In order to survive the Senior Bowl now has to adapt.
Perhaps my concerns are unmerited. We’ll see. Having even more impressive players might make the 1v1’s even more entertaining. But I feel for the small-school guys who earn a living at the Senior Bowl who might now not get the same opportunity. I feel for the Senior who shows up, makes a name for himself, who might now not attend because a player from LSU who half-arsed through two years of college ball but runs a 4.75 at 280lbs got invited instead because the league thinks he has a shot.
The NFL year after year just seems to find ways to ruin, IMO, it’s product. The 17th game. The seventh playoff seed. Threatening to move the combine from Indy. Making it so hardly any players do agility testing at the combine because of the prime-time schedule. The nonsense changes to the ‘roughing the passer’ rule. I could go on.
When you have perfection, just sit back and light a cigar. Stop ruining it.
I agree about the Senior Bowl and the NFL getting greedy. I wonder how much of this is due to NIL money? That’s got to be some component.
Rule changes and bad officiating I believe will absolutely drive fans away. I’ve never subscribed to the NFL is rigged stuff but this season especially I’ve seen the worst calls or non calls ever. The Jets had KC dead to rights 3 times and got bailed out by the refs. Ratings could be part of it but I wonder how much legalized sports betting is factoring in as well.
Yes, I found really suspicious that 3 week 8 games were “push”. How convenient!
Bad officiating could easily be rectified with the sky judge done correctly. I have to ask: if the league/Vegas doesn’t want to influence outcomes, why hasn’t the sky judge been implemented already?
Or make them full-time employee’s with benefits. Since they can print their own money. Amazing what that can do for someone and their part-time job.
How about both?
Bingo
Said it a lot nicer than I did when I read the news….
This sucks. And I am in the Senior Bowl’s backyard.
I say, if underclassmen want to compete in a postseason all-star game they should have to go to Las Vegas for the Shrine Game.
Rob nails it though, this is another example of the NFL trying to squeeze the last sizzle out of a steak rather than trying to fatten up the herd.
Haven’t read one word of this yet. But just let’s all take a moment when in three to four months every other draft head is getting around to evaluating the talent where you heard all this first…from Rob Staton.
Or when they write about how good someone is playing next year, how surprising it is because of where they were drafted, but not mention their own, WRONG takes.
See Anthony Richardson as a top 5 pick and Levis playing like someone who belongs in the league.
Well thats an annual tradition now
I have seen a few 2024 mock drafts already on line. Many of these have McCarthy and Nix going in the First Round, which I find ridiculous. It has to just be based on hype and team wins more than projecting these players in the NFL. Thankfully we have SDB to tell us who the actual good QB prospects are.
Remember that teams all evaluate differently, just because Rob sees someone as a first round (Lucas) doesn’t mean they go there, and just because he is out on someone (Trey Lance) doesn’t mean that every team is.
A lot of mock drafts are written by people who have one or two good inside sources, that then inform a lot of their picks.
JJ McCarthy is the exact type of player some team will take way too early, same with Nix. Rattler is the exact type who may tumble. Recall that some owners trump GMs and coaches (Young over Stroud)
I’m pretty sold on Rattler. On a slightly different thought do you think there’s any way geno will have a trade value instead of just cutting him?
Trading Geno would only save $13.8m instead of $22.5m and you’d take on a $17.4m dead hit in 2024.
I suppose that would be plausible for a good pick — but for the sake of just getting something in return, I think you’d be better off doing a post-June 1st cut and getting $22.5m to spend, spreading out the dead hit.
Since Geno’s salary is guaranteed 5 days after the super bowl, can the team really do it with a post-June 1st designation?
Geno would be a great QB for the Browns, by the way. If they had not fully guaranteed all of Deshaun’s contract.
I’m just reporting the numbers on OTC and Spotrac
It’s an exciting year to draft a QB. Now that round 2 is out the window, they just better not get cute and wait till round 3. A lot of teams are looking for a QB, don’t settle and go get the guy you want. IMO, it’s gotta be Ewers or Rattler, and I’m worried of a late rise up the boards both of them come the offseason.
Should we wait though? Isn’t 2025 shaping up to be the best quarterback class of all time? *ducks*
You laugh…
But I guarantee there is a team looking at the 2024 draft and considering passing on a QB because the owner wants to bring in Coach Prime in 2025. Possibly more than 1.
You laugh… But I guarantee there is a team looking at the 2024 draft and considering passing on a QB because the owner wants to bring in Coach Prime in 2025. Possibly more than 1.
The parallels in how you’re describing Rattler to Levis seem very real.
Is that accurate? And how does Rattler’s play compare to Levis? Where is Spencer better than Will, if anywhere?
Thanks so much for your insights.
Levis is a big Justin Herbert type where as Mahomes is more creative. Both share similarities though in the sense they are experiencing pro tendencies (Levis has better experience here though) and both finished their college careers playing behind shocking O-lines.
Rattler to me is a poor man’s Mahomes
They’re pretty different. Rattler is a very natural passer. Can be more patient. He’s had to fight through the gun slinger mindset that Levis is kind of in right now.
Rattler is just such a good passer and more polished. Levis is bigger and might have the stronger arm.
I’d be taking Rattler every time, and I’m a big Levis fan.
Thank you Rob for the analysis. I think when it comes to the QB position, John Schneider wants special. Because of that, I think it comes down to Rattler or Ewers (Caleb Williams out of reach). I think more so that Ewers will be the guy since he was the highly touted recruit in high school, and the natural talent you’ve mentioned. I could imagine Ewers having the greatest pro day possible for himself and the media going crazy because of it.
I think if JS wanted a big physical QB like Will Howard, he would’ve drafted Will Levis last year because there was no one more big and physical than him IMO. If Riley Leonard had the elite arm talent, I think he’d easily be a 1st round pick and he’d go right after Williams. I’m still interested to see what Leonard has to offer, but I honestly wouldn’t understand why Leonard would declare for this draft with so much competition at the QB position this year.
I think last offseason JS and Pete had convinced themselves that Geno might be the guy for the next few years. For all JS’ talk about the Green Bay way and always having one in the chamber, he’s basically never drafted a QB outside of Russ in the 3rd round. I’m not even convinced they would have taken Anthony Richardson at 5 if he was there (which would have been a tough pill to swallow).
I don’t know how they can watch Geno this year and not have long term questions. And I’m a lot higher on Geno than most of this board.
The quality of this website is other-worldly!! Honestly, reading this blog has increased my passion for this team despite rarely getting to properly sit down and watch games from start to finish (kids and work). Thanks Rob!
Also, nothing. (Football related) would make me happier than seeing JS moving up to get Rattler. In the past when he has had that kind of conviction about a player, it typically works. Plus having a poor man’s Mahoneys, sounds great to me!
Spending their R2 draft choice gives them less ammunition for moving up. Maybe their R1 plus Eskridge gets it done😂
Fantastic article! Thank you for answering many if my questions within the article. Especially regarding Bo Nix.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Seahawks/comments/17qzqfa/a_little_birdy_told_me_a_certain_large_wide/
Is it weird that if the “big” WR turns out to be Bobo, I’ll be impressed by his Moxy! Seriously though, really hope it isn’t true
Seems more likely to be DK, right?
Both Geno and DK have seemed extremely frustrated at times this year, and haven’t been shy about displaying that frustration publicly (during games).
That lack of restraint spilling over into practice isn’t difficult to imagine.
Ha yeah, I’m sure it is DK. I was just joking because it would be so outlandish for a rookie UDFA to punch the starting QB
It would be absolutely wrong for DK or anyone else to punch Geno. It would also be absolutely wrong for me being willing to pay to see some punch Geno in the mouth.
Geno may be a mediocre QB and a seemingly insufferable person, but it is absolutely wrong for someone to punch him, absolutely.
Well, last time a Seahawks WR punched a teammate, we won the Super Bowl.
This was published today. This person, Jordan Reid, is obviously just one guy at ESPN but he has Rattler ranked #11. What do you think the source of disconnect is between your opinions and the opinions of him and people like him?
https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/draft2024/insider/story/_/id/38496853/ranking-top-2024-nfl-draft-quarterbacks-hot-board-team-fits
No idea
But if he thinks Rattler is the 11th best QB in this draft… 🤦♂️
Might have meant 11th best player, regardless of position
Nope, he has him down as the 11th best QB
And where he says he needs to be better, he says his offensive line sucks
I mean, what are we doing here?
Better OL = better stats. Better stats = better QB ranking. Who knows. Sounds like some little guy sitting in his garage sending things to ESPN.
The point wasn’t ‘how can he get better stats’ though. The piece noted a pro and a con for each player. For Rattler, the ‘con’ was ‘his O-line sucks’. Then listed a load of reasons why the O-line sucked. Then said, ‘despite the O-line sucking… he has some issues behind a sucky O-line’.
There is absolutely no way Spencer Rattler is the 11th best draft eligible QB. When I see something like that, I just make a mental note for draft season on that writer and his projections.
In the ‘for you’ section on twitter it just suggested a video with this guy saying Drake Maye is 1b to Caleb Williams (he isn’t) and the text says “here’s what the USC passer needs to learn to move forward.”
I’m sure Caleb Williams is just fine, bud, without your advice.
Jeeze. He’s one of the best players to enter the league in the last decade!
Can’t believe we lost Kiper vs McShay for this.
Mel Kiper is still around at ESPN, isn’t he? I have not seen his big board, but I’ll bet that Rattler is way above his 11th ranked QB.
Kiper is but seems to be less in the spotlight. McShay has gone. Instead we have this guy and Matt Miller and for me, they aren’t a patch on Mel & Todd
I also think the Seahawks will draft a QB this year. After trading their 2nd they don’t have the ammo to get high into round one. Nor do I think they want to, because the “meat” of the QB draft this year is in R2/3. Again, being without their 2nd, that leaves them to picking a QB in the 3rd. My hope is that Will Howard lasts until then. If you look into how he’s gotten to where he is, you’ll see that he has just the kind of grit and determination the Seahawks covet.
I know it worked once with Wilson but waiting until pick 80 to pick a QB would be foolish
There are a lot of commenters concerned that Rattler/Ewers/QB of their choice will be gone by the Hawks R1 pick.
I’d rather have them take a player in range, or trade back, and pivot to the next QB on their board at an appropriate slot.
I find myself being ok with the idea of Howard, but not as a R1 pick.
See, I’d rather they find their guy and make sure to get him (within a little bit of reason).
Finding a quarterback is the biggest band-aid and the biggest way to catch up to better, more elite teams.
Agree with BK on this one
Agree 100% they should make a move to get their guy in R1 (cost appropriate), especially having foolishly squandered their R2 pick, failing to do so, don’t panic and take a R3 QB in R1, wait and pick later.
I wrote out a pen and paper post on my truck hood this morning. I’ve been typing it up, kind of illuminates this exact issue.
They should try and find someone. But two or three quarterbacks will already be off the board before the Seahawks pick. Maybe even Rattler since Rob likes him so much.
So in my mind this is a multiyear, multi quarterback process. Unless they just get lucky with the first pick. And this sort of multi year look is not something Pete has ever pursued. Because if he had, he would have picked Levis last year as part of his backup tryout for quarterback plan.
A lot will hinge on how the second tier of QBs perform in the pre-draft evaluation process, but if the sense ends up being that Ewers/Rattler/Leonard/Howard are 2nd round QBs, I have no problem with Seattle trading back from their first round pick. In fact, that might be the best way to extract maximum value from this draft no matter what, if they’re drafting in the upper 20s or higher.
At least two of those QB’s could/should go in R1
Having the 5th year is more valuable than picking up another 3rd round pick. They don’t need to try and get too clever. Has backfired on them for years.
i am hoping the Seahawks draft at least 1 but i am hoping they grt greedy and draft 2 QBs with the hopes 1 hits
highly unlikely but one can dream
Kirk Cousins likes your post
Rob,
Thanks as always for the great content. This blog has taught me so much about how to cut through the media chatter and get to the meat of a player’s actual talent and potential impact.
I was wondering if you have any plans to put the livestreams up on the rebuild podcast. I live in Tokyo and as much as I love watching you, Robbie, and Adam chop it up on YouTube, it’s not always easy to find the time. It would be awesome if they were in podcast form so we could listen in the car, on the train, etc.
I know how busy you must be already and I completely understand if that’s asking too much.
Thanks again for all you do!
I will definitely try to do that in future
I’d be keen for this too!
I download the YouTube videos to listen to when I know I’ll be traveling to a remote job site.
There are tools for this, amd it isn’t as convenient as a podcast app. I’ve been using YouTube’s Premium service and it seems to work for the livestreams.
Caleb Williams is an absolute magician when it comes to escapability. I was at the UW-USC game and rewatched it after I got home. There were 5 times the UW pass rusher had him seemingly dead to rights and using strength, speed, power, and agility he just slipped or ripped free and extended the play. Add another 3 or 4 plays on the run where the tackler had him squared up or got their hands on him but he just slid right out of danger.
He didn’t win the Heisman last year by accident. The guy is *GOOD*.
I’ll happily give Williams the Heisman again if he beats Oregon. Make it happen!
Penix is the hometown hero and all I hear from other local Seahawk fans is not only how much they want Penix, but that he is the future savior of the Seahawks franchise.
He was a Hoosier before he was a Husky…
Penix is actually from Tampa. I had a chance to meet him and DeBoer before they left for UW in the pre-pandemic days. Penix impressed the hell out of me from a personal perspective, if I had to bet money on a future coach, it would be Penix.
I comp him to Hendon Hooker, a journalist could practically cut and paste their stories from last draft cycle. I imagine the same pundits who hyped Hooker will Hype Penix with some PNW bias cooked in.
Which one is it:
Kid had good seasons, but transferred schools. Greater success but also played in an offensive system that doesn’t translate well to the NFL, very user friendly. Had his teams on the cusp of playoff spots and put up Heisman-like numbers.
Very smart kid with zero character issues, some teams will have concerns with his age when drafted. Also serious injury concerns and worry about long-term career from the injuries.
Also 6’3″ (and a difference of 5 lbs between them per wikipedia).
I am going to guess #2 is Penix, but honestly, carbon copy.
It’s all both of them. You’re right, almost the exact same, even their size.
I know that they are both great kids with nothing to worry about in that aspect. And the Big 10 was definitely more exciting with him still in Bloomington.
If they took an Ewers/Rattler in the 1st I’d be happy with penix in the 3rd for a true qb competition similar to cousins and rg3. Bummer they traded that 2nd though it would be nice to have it for a dt/g/s or to package a trade up. Even if they have to soend a lot of picks at qb the team is mostly ok everywhere else.
I would see that as a wasted pick. Use it for someone with a change to get on the field. We are still missing too much to do that. They might need that pick to move up for their guy. To me, a third is too late.
Cousins only played because Griffin got hurt. Do the work, focus on your guy, get him. Simple.
If it doesn’t work, try again. But give the guy the chance.
Read this for a comp on Ewers: Matthew Stafford
Maybe eventually. Now he’s more Jeff George.
THAT”S who I was trying to come up with for him. All of the arm talent in the world but it just never clicks. I’m worried about Ewers’s development, shoulder injuries, and inconsistencies. I don’t know if I can see him starting even two years in. Especially with our coaching staff and inability to develop players.
If we take one later make sure its TVD.
For those who were asking about Google preventing your work computers letting you have access to SDB due to a firewall, I have got them to overturn this and it should be working fine now
Impressive that you got a behemoth like them to change something.
Almost as impressive as the number of folks that admit to goofing off at work to read SDB😅
Aaaaaaaaand Peter wins the internet today.
🤣
Excellent breakdown, for anyone reading, try to go through player by player and write down your own thoughts, not easy!
I wrote this out on some paper and just kind of mulled it over on a site from 5am-10am today. Trying to get all these thoughts together coherently just raises my admiration for Rob, CHA and frankly anyone else who does this in their spare time.
I wanted to try and play QB matchmaker – way too early, but sometimes a silly exercise can boil down some truths. Right now there is a lot of noise, That makes it hard to think who I might want the Seahawks to select, who the Seahawks would consider, which QB might be available in which round, etc….
Caleb Williams (QB, USC)
Chicago Bears move on from from Fields – don’t know who Fields goes to, and that may be the first big chip to fall after the draft order is set (AZ is reported to be sticking with Murray and eyeing Harrison). If AZ holds on to the top pick, don’t rule out a sweepstakes of teams trying for Caleb.
Spencer Rattler (QB, South Carolina)
Tampa Bay Bucs. There is bad tape historically, question marks about character, and he is Mahomes-Lite. He also is on the shorter and lighter side. He is also the gourmet version of Baker Mayfield. Canales gets his guy. I think a lot of teams will be putting R2 grades on Rattler and trying to sneak into the back half of R1 to draft .
Drake Maye (QB, North Carolina)
New York Giants. I’m suspecting a regime change may be in the works in the meadowlands, and Daniel Jones contract might make this unreasonable. Maye just screams NYG, also consider NYJ here.
Quinn Ewers (QB, Texas)
Seattle Seahawks. When I sit down and look at the 32 teams and say ‘who would take Ewers in R1’ two teams leap off the page SEA and GB. My gut says Love gets one more year. I also think Ewers could put on a show pre-draft that causes some team to fall head over heels for him (MIN, ATL, NO, LAR, DEN, LV).
Ewers being the pick would excite me at the same time it would make me want to vomit, nothing could be as Seahawky as that.
Michael Penix Jr (QB, Washington)
Atlanta Falcons (R2). Penix fits the mold of what the Falcons have drafted for, and Ridder has struggled enough where some comp would be worthwhile. Atlanta is also #2 on my Coach Prime watchlist, so the pressure in ATL on the staff would favor a QB like Penix
Riley Leonard (QB, Duke)
New England (R1). Leonard will be going pro if he is hearing he is a top 15 pick. He likely will generate a ton of interest. He seems like the exact type of QB Belli has gone after. Also see NYJ, MIN, and DEN.
Will Howard (QB, Kansas State)
Denver Broncos (R3). RW will pout, but in reality Howard could sit for 1-2 years – ideal. It is really easy to look at Howard and imagine him as a Seahawks QB. Too easy. Ewers and Howard are my two biggest Boomer/Bust prospect in this draft. Howard’s likely availability at the end of Round 2 or in Round 3 will make him really attractive to some teams who are (rightly/wrongly) confident in their QB development. Other options: SEA, MIN, GB, Bucs, NO, WAS, NYJ, NE
Bo Nix (QB, Oregon)
New Orleans (R4). Hardest one to assign as Nix is the type of QB your team drafts if you need to draft a QB for PR reasons. I see nothing that says he will be a good NFL QB, and lots to say he won’t be. He and Sam Hartmann may make a nice broadcast crew one day? Any team might take a R5 or later flyer if he is available then.
Tyler Van Dyke (QB, Miami)
LA Rams (R5). Rams will make a run at Caleb, and if that doesn’t pan out will keep on their schedule – looking at QB in 2025. Sadly TVD could end up in the UDFA bag, that is how damaged he looks to me. He is another QB any team might take a flyer on in R5 or later.
JJ McCarthy (QB, Michigan)
NYJ (R2). I see JJ McCarthy and think Zach Wilson. McCarthy is the exact mix of skills and persona that has attracted the Jets over the years. I’m in Rob’s camp-but also recognize that McCarthy holds a different sort of appeal. Other teams that could be thinking R1/R2 LV, NYG, CHI
Cameron Ward (QB, Washington State)
Green Bay(R4). A hedge against Love, but not a shot across the bow. I do wonder if Cam might run it back for 2025. The DTR analogy is right, some team will add Ward in R4 or later to see what they have there. Denver would also be another good option.
Jordan Travis (QB, Florida State)
Minnesota Vikings (R3) Feels like the sort of player who makes fans fall in love with him in the preseason, but doesn’t translate into being a starter. On the other hand, this feels like a very Vikings choice if they miss out on other targets.
Brady Cook (QB, Missouri)
Las Vegas (R2) Brady meet Brady. I think Cook only enters draft if he is hearing around 3 or higher for his status. AOC might look good, but Cook would look great in LV. Who is the new Coach in Sin City? My guess is that Ben Johnson arrives with new GM Mike Martin. Other options for Cook include MIN, DEN, CHI…
Michael Pratt (QB, Tulane)
Washington Commies (R4). The Commies are #3 on my Coach Prime watchlist, I think Riverboat Ron is likely gone, this is a franchise getting ready for a rebuild. Pratt is the perfect type of QB to bring in to compete during a turnover, this feels like a match made. If Pratt succeeds, WAS will have gone through a soft reset and have a franchise QB in place, if he falters, they at least have had an energetic and exciting QB that will be easy to replace. If Pratt blows up the predraft process, I think a lot of teams could get in on him, Tampa seems as likely as anyone else.
Jayden Daniels (QB, LSU)
Miami Dolphins (R6). I like Daniels, in a lot of ways he reminds me of Geno Smith. I also expect that Murray isn’t going to light the league on fire in his return, and a lot of teams are going to put QB size back on the downgrade menu. Jayden is the sort of QB that could sit and develop nicely however. He is also the sort of backup who could win you a game or 2 if necessary. Daniels strikes me as the sort of player a lot of teams will pivot to on Day 3 if their preferred choices get snatched up.
What did I learn? The Seahawks would be well advised to get their QB in the first, there are likely to be a lot of teams jockeying to trade up into the back half of R1 to take a QB, a lot targeting R2 for their QB, and R3 might leave you with some very imperfect options if you’ve chosen to stand pat through the first two rounds.
I also learned that there could be a lot of changes and volatility that could lead to 5 QB in the first or a run in the second.
SDB could be cooking even hotter next offseason without a high R1 pick.
Man, I’m really enjoying your insight and the detail you put into it.
I just can’t disagree at all. You can look at some of these guys and think of certain teams and the tendencies that they have with their quarterbacks. You also don’t realize how many teams are going to be in for a new qb until you see a list.
I need to think of it this way: would I rather have Ewers or no one? I’m having a hard time getting behind him, just too many worries and I don’t think he is close to starting.
Pro: amazing pop out of his hand
Con: not great size is putting it mildly. Injuries. With an ‘s’. A little concerned that with their talent he’s had great games against big names and some weak performances against ‘lesser’ teams.
Little worried about this draft class. Seattle’s position in the draft ( pick #20?) I can see Ewers but if he doesn’t declare does Seattle punt on it…obviously I hope not but Rattler might move out of reach. Howard? Other?
Straight up I was more excited about Richardson, Levis, Stroud than this year.
I know Williams is going number one. I’m not even excited about him. Been there did that with the running around. Truly unconvinced how that translates when JAG nfl defensive players are miles faster, better, stronger than what he’s faced in college. Also Riley.
The number of underclassmen declaring is one of the biggest variables for this draft.
I can say I’m as excited about Ewers and Rattler as I was for Levis and Richardson. Stroud was a bump up and no thank you on Young.
Howard is intriguing, there is no better word for him, as long as he is taken in the appropriate range and developed well, he could be the steal of the draft.
Still need to finish the Texas game that I have taped with Howard. Hulu keeps restarting it… And I have a 3 year old that wants to watch Puppy Dog Pals or Bluey instead….
In a post Wilson world I was higher on Levis and Richardson because I had wanted the team to get a big strong dude at qb.
I like Rattler a lot. Both stops he’s shown a growing mastery of the systems with each year he’s played.
I need to see Ewers real measurable. He’s listed 6’2″ 196lb. I think it’s more 6’1″ 190 flat.
I think he can totally get it done but a bridge is needed like richardson. He’s aged very few games.
The problem with Howard I have is he will look great and have some clunkers. That’s putting politely.
Alaska below mentions td to int ratio and nome of these guys are doing that. Wilson was unique because it was a pro system and he put up great numbers. Now you only get great stats from goofy gimmick offenses.
I stood near Riley Leonard, can confirm that his measurable are probably right.
Pick 20 sounds about right. But man is it hard to figure where a prospect like Rattler will go without knowing the draft order in front of us. I do believe Seattle will draft a QB in this draft if the pick is right. But I don’t know that they’d move up to get one. Maybe move up from R3, but in R1?
Anyway, my point is that if Rattler is their guy and they start sweating him getting picked before they can in R1, they could conceivably have the ammo to make a modest move up into the mid teens for him.
As an example, in 2021 Chicago moved from 20 to 11 for their 2021 R5 + 2022 R1 + R4. The next year’s R1 is like a current year R2, plus another what, current year R4 (a current year R5 + next year’s R4)?
So basically a R2 + R4 to move up 9 spots.
Wouldn’t expect Rattler to go that early, if he even goes before their native pick (wherever that ends up). But if they did sweat it depending on who’s selecting in the picks before them, maybe they make a move.
Would be nice to have that R2 to play with.
I could see Rattler going early. After Williams the water gets pretty murky for me. Maye? I guess. After those two, who? Hard to get a hard feel right now.
I was more excited for a quarterback last year and felt that we had a better chance at getting one last year. And we were a pick away.
I want Rattler more that Caleb Williams. He just fits with a team that is ready and he has done his growing and maturing.
There are some outliers that I would be ok with, starting with Leonard. I just see him going back or even transferring for his own good.
Rattler for me over Williams as well.
I like Rattler but wouldn’t go that far
To me Caleb Williams is like Russell Wilson on steroids. Only the steroids elevate his physical abilities to the point where he relies on them more than his head. Wilson was a field general in college. Always in command of his offense. With an insane ability to extend a play when things broke down.
Williams has that same ability, but seems like mostly based on his insane athletic ability and frankly, luck. Unless it just looks like luck. I dunno.
Williams is a rare prospect.
For me now, just on opinion….
Riley hasn’t had a qb yet who is greater than the sum of their parts in the pros. Hurts is close but he’s not quite a “Riley qb,” and needed another coach in pros to get the most out if him.
I like Rattler better because I see him and it looks repeatable in the pros.
I just rewatched wilson 2011 highlights and you see a qb. Read, read,bye a little time, beautiful arm. Or just straight stand there and throw.
The first youtube highlight reel that comes on for Williams has a zillion killer things. It also doesn’t have a Witherspoon or mafe or nwossu who can close. It’s him throwing with no feet, him throwing without looking sidearm, him scrambling for 3,4,5, Mississippis which if that doesn’t work he’ll get killed by dlinemen and still might as a QB hit.
His game is fun. But just me now…I don’t see very many things that are repeatable and when, not if but when, they don’t work due to time or injury…I’m not seeing just straight up dog it out qb play.
.
For me (especially watching Russ in college), Russ was in complete control of the offense. Bielema let him do his thing and he led the offense.
Rattler plays that way. Just in control. You can see the experience with both. They never feel like they are overwhelmed.
I think that Caleb Williams is playing beyond Riley. He has to improvise. I honestly don’t know what he would do if everything was clicking and running smoothly, almost like it would be too calm for him. His talent is off the charts.
But I just see Spencer Rattler in charge. He has the experience, faced the adversity, is right behind Caleb Williams with his talent. I can’t remember a kid where if he was drafted, he could step in right away and I wouldn’t be worried. He doesn’t have to dominate the game. I just can’t be any more impressed with him.
It’s really a personal preference. Rattler has done more for himself to grow and develop, Williams has done a lot for himself out of necessity to compete.
Ewers got the name drop by JS, and legit, watch Bama and OK and you’ll feel like you know everything you need to know.
My feeling he just screams out for the Seahawks, and primarily because of the two Rattler’s ceiling will always be below Mahomes. Ewers ceiling is something we haven’t seen yet, a better Aaron Rodgers??
That’s a big comp.
Rodgers is a goofus extreme.
As a qb he’s one if the best processors of the game I’ve ever seen.
Ewers has shown some improved mobility this year but was nothing like Rodgers on the move in college.
RMK – some interesting thoughts. I hope you save this and maybe you can brag about it after the draft!
Just an FYI guys, Cowherd had Jordan Palmer on today and he said Williams and Maye are 1 & 2 much like everyone else says so no surprise there. However……………Colin asked him who is #3 guy behind the 2 of them is atn this point and he thought it over and said “Nix”.
Jesus wept
1-7 Panthers @ 2-7 Bears.
This is the penultimate Thursday night football matchup.
Sign up for Amazon Prime today!
Don’t forget the incredibly pixelated stream that will have you on edge of your seat trying to find out where the ball is. It’s all part of the experience!
You must be talking about ABC, they are still showing shows in the old standard format here. Was that number 3 or 8?
Tough being a Chicago fan cheering for both teams to lose!
I’d sign this guy over Jason Peters
https://x.com/DJTheWarrior76/status/1722479748884972018?s=20
As far as quarterbacks go, based on the Russell Wilson pick there is one metric that convinced Pete to draft him. In 2011 while playing for Wisconsin he had 33 touchdowns to 4 interceptions ratio or a 9:1 ratio.
Aside from physical ability I think Pete picks for a high TD to Interception rate. This is hard to factor with the QBs on weaker teams. Perhaps easier with the Ohio States and Georgia type teams, but they can also have a strong running game which aids in the passing. Sooo based on that metric who would Pete pick? I’m not seeing very many QBs with a good TD/Int ratio,
I’m going to get really annoying until the draft gets here, but I’ll say Rattler again. As Rob mentioned in the past, he only has one bad interception, and that was against Georgia when he HAD to start forcing it.
His td’s aren’t there, but he only has one legitimate weapon (who I would have over JSN personally).
Scoring for non-system guys just isn’t there. Look at Leonard. Those system offenses are about putting up numbers and using the raw, natural talent of the quarterbacks, not developing them.
This is why CJ Stroud has looked this good: only system guy that played out of it.
Isn’t the narrative that it was JS who really wanted Russ, and not Pete, though?
Matt Flynn needed some competition during training camp. The rest is history!
That is correct, John really wanted Russ, and was even going to take him in the 2nd, according to the horses mouth.
https://www.nfl.com/news/seattle-seahawks-gm-eyed-russell-wilson-in-round-2-0ap1000000208110
https://www.nfl.com/news/pete-carroll-had-to-be-convinced-to-draft-russell-wilson-0ap2000000312949
Caleb 28 to 4
Jayden 27 to 4
Penix 26 to 7
Nix 25 to 2
Maye 20 to 5
Howard 18 to 8
McCarthy 18 to 3
Pratt 15 to 3
Ewers 13 to 3
Cook 16 to 5
…
If Nix is chosen I might have to go away for awhile.
With all due respect Rob, despite your impressive record on this subject, I think this comment about Michael Pratt is way off.
Consider this. According to “The Kneaux” .com these are the greatest quarterbacks in Tulane history as of September 23rd.
Patrick Ramsey 9205 yards 58.9% 72 TD 51 INT
Ryan Griffin 9026 yards 59.9% 56 TD 35 INT
Shaun King 8419 yards 55.5% 70 TD 34 INT
Terrence Jones 7684 yards 54.7% 46 TD 41 INT
Michael Pratt 7499 yards 59.7% 72 TD 21 INT
J.P Losman 6754 yards 57.8% 60 TD 27 INT
Patrick Ramsey was 32nd overall in 2002. Ryan Griffin was a UDFA for the New Orleans Saints. Shaun King was a 2nd round draft pick for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Terrence Jones was selected by the San Diego Chargers in 1989 to play defensive back but ended up playing quarterback in Canada. J.P. Losman was selected 22nd overall by the Buffalo Bills in 2004.
With two games left on the schedule, these are Michael Pratt’s statistics today.
8794 yards 60.8% 83 TD 24 INT.
He will likely hit 9000 passing yards and I think it is fair to agree with the article that when it comes to Tulane football Michael Pratt is the G.O.A.T.
Yeah, I know, it’s not like he is the G.O.A.T. of Alcorn State. But still, to say that his ceiling is day three is selling him way short. I don’t think he is a first-round draft pick, but I would take him before Kenny Pickett seven days a week and twice on Sunday. I think his ceiling is the first pick of round two and his floor is the first pick of round four. Hell, Patrick Ramsey and J.P. Losman got drafted in the first round!
Here is the article.
https://www.thekneaux.com/goat-talk-michael-pratt
As much as I like Shaun King and love appearing on his VSiN show — we can’t judge players based on stats
College has changed since a lot of these guys played
Agreed. I just think he’s a little much better than day three.
And while the game has changed, Mark Davis’s bowl cut is forever.
Now that Seattle is down a 2024 2nd round pick it’ll be interesting to see if they drop back into the old, predictable habit pattern. That would be a trade down followed by the selection of someone that many people consider a gross overdraft. So the QB version of that in the 2024 draft is that we trade back from our native 1st round pick & then select Brady Cook while beer goes shooting out of people’s noses as they search their draft guides to figure out who he is.
I am having a hard time reconciling what I think they should do VS what I think they WILL do.
Just looking at the NFC, the clubhouse leaders are:
-Philly: 2nd round pick, who is undersized a good, not great arm and is mobile (great backstory)
-Detroit: Former top pick bought for pennies on the dollar, good size, good arm, not mobile
– 49ers: Mr Irrelevant, won the job from #3, good arm, not great, smart, cheap
– Saints: Cast off FA on the back end of career, decent arm, not mobile, unremarkable career
What do all of these teams have in common though? Great DL and apart from NO, great OL. More on that in a minute.
Now, what have the Seahawks done? (a couple of rumors that have been mostly confirmed in here)
– Took a risk on waiting for RW (short, athletic, charismatic leader).
– Liked Allen & Mahomes, but not enough to make the deal at the time
– Had a trade agreed to for Jalen Hurts and picks, but RW vetoed
– Included Lock (big arm, big guy, decent mobility, poor decision making/accuracy) in RW deal
– Rolled with Geno: washout career backup with average skillset and great redemption arc
– Passed on Levis (big arm, mobile) twice in round 1 and didn’t move up 5 spots or so to get him on day 2.
My (assumed) Pete conclusion is:
– You don’t need a great R1 QB to take the NFC.
– Making John wait a round on RW got us Bobby
– First round picks are to be used for shitty trades, not QBOTF (I know, snark level 10)
– Geno was good enough and he brings ‘intangibles’ to the team, but he is cramping our cap
– $30M plus a good-enough QB with intangibles is the best bet to take the NFC and get back to the SB
My want is a franchise QB for the next 10+ years. I just don’t know if I think that’s where the Hawks will be looking.
When I look at Allen and Mahomes (the guys linked to JS) I don’t see a lot of similarities. Mahomes is cerebral, accurate, has good footwork but isn’t a runner, came from a spread offense with gaudy numbers. Allen was an inaccurate, huge arm, running QB from a tiny school who was 78th in the NCAA in passing yards as a senior. It’s like comparing Joe Montana to Brett Favre – I don’t think either is really a ‘type’ that JS targets.
With all of that being said, I can see us waiting until day 2 to take a QB. I’d say they might double dip, but can’t remember the last time we carried 3 QB’s.
Apologies for the stream-of-consciousness post. I may have only succeeded in talking myself in circles.
I laughed and cried at the same time. And a VERY worthy 10 indeed.
If you want to laugh and cry some more, second round picks are also to be used for shitty trades, not QBOTF
Nice post! Lots of good information and interesting takes.
Still dont believe they will draft a QB though. Although I agree that they should.
I don’t know why people keep insisting they won’t take a QB
1. Pete closing in on the end of his career and wanting to win now.
2. Mark Sanchez who knows Carroll jumping in with “or bring in a vet to compete” (with Geno) when Cowherd said he thought Seattle would draft a QB.
3. Passed on Levis 2Xs
4. Carroll’s ego. My guess he feels like he can take a Tyrod Taylor type and win with him like he did with Geno last year.
5. His championship was won with and undersized 3rd rounder. IF he actually does draft one I’d bet it’ll be 3rd or 4th round in part because of this.
You asked. I gave my opinions.
And btw, I am chomping at the bit to be wrong.
Gonna listen later but Sanchez on with Brock and Salk today the thumb nail reads “mistakes starting to pile up for geno”….
Not much of a piece. Said last year he was safe with the ball (he wasn’t, he was second in the league for turnover worthy plays) and this year he isn’t. Then they moved on to talk about Will Ferrell visiting USC
Really wish I read this comment before listening to a tired story about will ferrell.
Agree with the above.
I think if they were going to take a QB they would not have traded their second round pick.
Unfortunately I think Pete will insist on retaining Geno and likely at full price (to avoid distraction and build “this” team).
The best case is that they cut Geno and resign Lock to 15 million per year (unreasonable but they love to overpay).
Be prepared to watch them pass on Rattler and Ewers in the 1st.
I think you’re looking at a UDFA. You better hope Cam Ward or Will Howard somehow go undrafted. Even then they are not starting unless there’s an injury.
I do think John wants a QB but Pete has final say and that’s that.
I should have added that trading their second rounder next year is another reason I don’t believe they will draft anyone at least in the first couple of rounds. Good call man.
God that would be depressing and if that happens, a new owner couldn’t come soon enough.
And here’s my counter:
1. Carroll or anyone else is winning sweet FA without a better QB
To be fair, they really only passed on Levis once since he wasn’t in play at 5, and that’s according to League consensus.
I think JSN was a curious pick at 20 for us, until you look at the fact he was the first WR taken, and taking him set off a run at the position.
Seattle got the DB of their choice and the WR of their choice in the entire draft. They must have felt that was worth more than a QB of their 3rd or 4th choice.
I don’t think they’ll force it any more this draft but it’s damn harder to argue the need isn’t there.
I’m not insisting that they won’t take a QB, but after 13 drafts, Carroll/Schneider have only taken 2. Really, they “should” have taken QBs multiple times in the past and haven’t – even on developmental guys to groom behind Wilson. I was surprised when they passed on Levis at #5 and shocked when they passed on him at #20. It just seemed so obvious. I hope it doesn’t come back to haunt them in the next few years.
Using 1st round picks on CB and WR this year proved that we can’t count on the past being a predictor of the future with Seattle, but for whatever reason, they just seem unable or unwilling to pull the trigger on QB. Maybe this is the year that the right QB is available when Seattle is on the clock and they finally take that step. It will be disappointing to many of us if they don’t, but it won’t be surprising.
No no no no no 😂
Please people, STOP referencing the lack of picks at QB
They drafted a franchise QB in 2012. They wouldn’t NEED to draft a QB for 10 years
They’ve basically passed on one since, Levis. The 2022 class was awful.
How many QB’s have the Chiefs drafted since Mahomes?
I think the reason they only drafted McGough all these years were Russ’ ego. John talked about the Greenbay model before in his interviews. He believes in drafting developmental qb in later rounds.
In the 2023 draft, they were thinking about drafting a qb. They had workout meetings with the top 4 qb.
Next year, if Lock leaves via FA, they will draft a QB.
McGough was a R7. They probably just took him because they liked him.
They tried/considered drafting QB’s in 2016 and 2017
This is all about timing and evaluations. We waste too much time discussing their willingness to draft a QB. Every team is willing! If they see one they like they will do it. It’s time.
I remember looking into this and don’t feel like doing the work again, but there just weren’t any good quarterback options available in nearly every draft where they were picking. The only guy they passed on that would’ve worked out is Jalen Hurts in 2020. Which would’ve been a great pick, but that’s it. Well, and then obviously Brock Purdy, whom everyone passed on till the end. You can’t just make a quality prospect appear out of nowhere every year.
I really went looking for ammunition to say, “ah hah!” but I don’t think this one’s on Schneider.
Sorry Rob but I agree with Big Mike and other commentors that there is no way Seattle spends a First Round on a Quarterback. PC can’t have many years left of being the Head Coach and grooming a Rookie QB doesn’t make sense for him. He will want to pay Geno big money in 2024. If Geno really tanks, then he might try to get Mayfield, Mariota or some other veteran QB on the cheap to compete for the starting job.
Like others here, I really hope that I am wrong about this.
“No way”
FFS
Stop
One of the worst comments I read too often. Pete is old so he’ll want to roll with Mariota
I mean come on
The guy who won a SB with a second year QB. Nearly won one with a rookie. But no, he won’t do that. Mariota instead.
This is something you wrote.
I agree with seahawks going with Mariota is absurd.
Pete is 72 and dont have that many years left in coaching. Also with the ownership situation in flux, who knows whats gonna happen. Maybe it gets sold in 2025 to a new ownership. And they might want to start fresh. Go with a younger, offensive head coach.
Before the LW trade, I would be more on your side Rob. But with them not drafting any QB (even mid round) in 2023, and them mortgaging future high pick to go all in this year, makes me worry.
With that trade, Pete and John believe they are contenders with Geno. Which is scary to me, IMO.
Seahawks dont have a top 5 pick like last year. How are they gonna find a QBOTF that will be ready to start next year? They can do the bridge qb route and sit him for a year. But how many second or third year qb wins the SB?
Wilson, Big Ben, and Pat M did. Hurts almost did last year. I dont see it happening with the seahawks in the next 2-3 years.
Will Pete have 3 years or more left in coaching? Will he have the patience to ride with a young qb if his career is gonna be over soon? Idk
Pete was 62 when he rolled with Russ to win the SB. He was in year 3 of his tenure with the seahawks. Its completely different now. He is 72 now and dont have many years left in coaching.
I can’t believe we are still talking about this 🤦♂️
Option A — Carroll has a crap older QB and doesn’t win a title
Option B – Carroll drafts a good young QB who might need to be managed or need a bit of time in year one
One option could lead to a title. One definitely won’t.
It’s as simple as that.
I agree with you on the option A or B. Of course I want them to do option B. I dont believe in Geno. Or a middle of the pack qb to lead the seahawks to a SB. That is very rare to win a SB with average qb (Foles, Flacco)
But you think option B will get the seahawks to a SB in year 2 or 3??
Pete prob dont have much time in his coaching career.
Also, maybe Pete doesnt think Geno is a crap QB. That is my point as well
Why did they trade for LW? Why were they trying to trade for Uche?
I think Pete believes they can contend for the SB with Geno.
That is the troubling issue for me.
There’s no reason why it can’t get them to the SB. They literally did it in Seattle.
And it has a better chance than zero chance with an incapable veteran
Rob,
The Seahawks SHOULD draft a QB but they won’t. At least that’s how it looks. Pete wants to win now.
They will not win with Geno but they are going to keep trying. If he doesn’t work, they’ll resign Lock for a lot of money.
It’s not a winning approach, but it’s what they’ll likely do.
I would be happy with Rattler in the 1st, but I just think they are going to pass. And they’ll pass because it’s Pete’s call.
Oh FFS
The next person who says they “won’t” draft a QB, I’m moving this along
I can’t do five months of this
We are all speculating what Pete and John will do. No one knows the answer but them.
Im just saying its better to not speak on what they will do as facts. We are all speculating based on the info we have. No one is right or wrong.
Only one side of this debate is claiming to know definitively what Pete or John will or won’t do
No worries, Rob.
Thats why I make my statement’s with “i think,” “maybe”. Cause I dont know whats in their head.
I think it will take time to get a young qb to a superbowl in his second or third year. Of course it happened recently with Mahomes, Burrow and Hurts. Mahomes and Burrow are top 2 qb in the league. Hurts have a extremely talented roster with probowler at offensive and defensive line
Beside Caleb Williams, i dont see any qbs in the next draft to take the seahawks the promise land so soon. Thats why i was thinking with Pete’s timeline, he might opt for a “quicker” fix at qb.
My personal view is the seahawks should draft and develop a young qb. I just dont know if Pete has that mindset. I know he did with Russ, but that was 11 years ago.
How many more years of coaching Pete has? Jay Glazer did report in the pass that Pete might retire/move on. I dont remember which year
Off topic, i was thinking there is a slim possibility the seahawks can make the superbowl this year.
The lions have one of the easiest remaining schedule.
Playoff seeding
1. Lions
2. Eagles
3. Niners
4. NFC south winner
5. Seahawks
6. Cowboys
The seahawks have a good chance to beat the NFC south winner (Saints or Falcons). Play the Lions in the divisional round (they play well against them the past two years)
Then have a lucky day against a beat up niners or eagles that just played one another in the divisional round.
Funny to imagine that scenario.
I think that you misunderstood the point I was making. I am not saying that Seattle should have used a high pick on a potential starter during the RW years. I am talking about using late-round picks on prospects with the upside to be groomed into capable backups and/or developed into players that could start if called on to do so, or that other teams are willing to trade for. I believe that Schneider has said that he believes in drafting a QB every few years whether you need one or not. We haven’t seen that in Seattle.
I’m assuming that since you asked about KC, the Chiefs have drafted zero QBs. That’s OK, and is a valid point. The Packers drafted 13 QBs during the Farve/Rogers years, some of whom were properly developed, traded away, and became solid starters for other organizations (such as Hasselbeck, Aaron Brooks and Mark Brunell). Same with the Patriots, who drafted 10 QBs during the Brady era.
I’m not debating whether or not Seattle should or will use a high pick on a QB this year. If the right QB is there, they should and I hope they do. You and I agree on that. I just don’t have confidence that they will. I hope I’m wrong.
I didn’t misunderstand
When you have a franchise QB there is no need to waste a late rounder developing a player who has no path to start
Same way that KC don’t waste resources on it now
It’s nuts that we talk about this as much as we do
Why did Bill Belicheck draft so many qbs when he had Brady. He even drafted them in the second round.
He used them as trade chips later. Have a solid backup qb. Or provide extra motivation for the starting qb.
I’d wish the seahawks did that during Russ era.
Belichick drafted QB’s when Brady was in his mid and late 30’s!!!
How is this a relevant comparison!!
Patriots drafted Matt Cassel 2005 draft round 7. Brady was still young. That proved to be an excellent pick. He played great for the only year Brady was hurt.
They already won multiple SB. And still drafted a qb.
Not every team follow the same path. Or have the same philosophy that you believe in. There are teams that do draft qb mid to late rounds when they have a franchise qb.
You think the Patriots spending a seventh rounder on Cassel means anything?
We spent a seventh on McGough!
This is like banging your head against a brick wall. The ‘Seahawks won’t draft a QB under Carroll’ truthers are infuriating
My stance is not “the Seahawks won’t draft a qb under Pete carroll”
I never had that opinion. I believed he will draft one if given the opportunity. Why did they invited the top 4 QBs for workout last year.
My stance is, it’s not a bad decision to draft qbs in the mid to late rounds when you have a franchise qb. You were giving examples (chiefs not drafting qb with mahomes).
I was giving an example, patriots drafting multiple qbs under Brady. Another poster gave examples on the packers doing this.
Ron Wolf follows this model. Why are you so insistent that no nfl team draft QBs when they have a franchise QBs?
Carson Wentz played well in 2019. Paid as a franchise qb. Eagles drafted Hurts in the second round in 2020. That turned out to be a great decision.
Even the redskins did this when they drafted RG3, then cousins in the same draft. RG3 is their franchise qb (given all the resources they poured into him). Was that a bad decision to draft cousins?
Seems like when someone doesn’t agree with your opinion, it’s infuriating. There isn’t just one correct opinion. There isn’t one way to skin a cat.
I never suggested otherwise.
My point is to the people saying they won’t draft a QB and using the last 11 years as evidence. If you have a franchise QB, as the Seahawks did, there’s no need for it. Thus, not drafting one during the Wilson years is indicative of nothing.
I think that was obvious, the point I was making.
Evidently not as frustrating when people misconstrue what you’re saying.
You have to get why ppl think Pete wont draft a qb because he only drafted McGough in Russ’ era.
Because John S started from Packers org. He follows the Ron Wolf method of drafting qbs when they have a franchise qb. john even mention this in interviews.
But why havent they even draft a single qb during Russ’ era besides 7th roundwr Mcgough? Maybe its Pete’s call?
I know they kick the tires with Mahomes and Allen. But they were high first round pick which the seahawks didnt have. And John doesnt seem to like to trade up in first round. Idk why.
I dont agree with ppl that think Pete wont draft a qb. But why be so dismissive of their opinion??
No one is right or wrong. Its all speculation.
We all dont know what is in Pete’s head. We are all guessing with their history in mind.
That was my whole point.
No, I don’t. Because as I keep saying, they drafted a franchise QB and didn’t need to draft any more. That point is a cast-iron fact. They had Wilson. They’ve passed on basically Will Levis and that’s it in the last two drafts because nobody else was even worth considering. This is the situation.
Because they didn’t need a QB and because the mid/later round guys were of no interest to them where they were picking. This isn’t rocket science.
Because it’s an argument based on the flimsiest footing imaginable and when you keep having to address the same point over and over again, it becomes tiresome. As does writing 2-3000 word articles on QB’s only for people to say, ‘they won’t draft a QB because Pete won’t draft one’ based on zero evidence or anything resembling a sound argument.
It’s not speculation to say they ‘won’t’ draft a QB.
Fair enough. I understand your point of view, I just see it a little differently. We can leave it at that.
I’m not insisting that they won’t draft a QB. I just dont believe it until I see it. History is one aspect, throwing away a second rounder (ammunition to move a couple of spots up if the opportunity is there) to get a ten game rental is another aspect. Then there is the fact that a rookie QB is a 2-3 year project at minimum and Carroll is 72. Also Carroll is a firm believer in “the team around the guy”. -line of thinking
I love your work Rob, but you were fairly sure last year too that they were drafting a QB, and last year would have seemed like the best time to do so. Is it possible they tried but their guy just wasn’t there? Sure. Maybe. But I have grown a little hesitant to believe the story that Schneider was after Allen and Mahomes. It’s starting to sound a little bit too good to be true. Hindsight is 20/20.
Like others, I hope my pessimism misdirects me here. The crow would taste so sweet.
Also, I was sure they were drafting a QB last year. Fool me once…
Or they simply didn’t and there’s little need to make a prediction for what they do next year based on anything from this class.
— They had a franchise quarterback for 10 years and didn’t need to draft one.
— Carroll literally started a rookie in 2012 and nearly won a SB (they were good enough) and then DID win a Super Bowl with that player in year two.
— Carroll is NOT going to win a Super Bowl with Geno Smith so even if a rookie is a two-year project, that is still better than a zero year project.
— If it’s about ‘the team around the guy’ he’s less likely to be bothered about the experience of a QB because ‘the team around him’ will be able to support the rookie.
— If I was ‘fairly sure’ the Seahawks were drafting a QB this year, why didn’t I put the Seahawks with a QB in my last few mocks? I definitely thought they ‘should’ take a QB. It is wrong to portray my opinion — and extensive analysis of the 2023 QB’s — as me saying anything definitive about whether they would. They considered it and chose not to. I can see why people might misconstrue my insistence that they were considering it and weren’t just going to the pro-days for a laugh or misdirection as something else. But I never said anything definitive about whether they would or wouldn’t take one.
— The story that Schneider liked Mahomes and Allen was revealed before either player became good. So there’s no reason not to believe it. All of the Mahomes chatter was literally reported on the day he was drafted. The minute KC took him, it was reported the Seahawks were seriously considering him in R1 (which was a shocking piece of news, given they had Wilson). The Allen stuff came out amid the first flush of Wilson trade chatter in 2019, a year after Allen was drafted (and he was not good as a rookie).
Guys, I have to say I can’t handle another five months of people insisting a NFL football team won’t draft a QB early that they like. This is like saying my dogs would never eat a fillet steak if I put one in their bowls simply because I eat the steak instead usually and they’ve already had 10 years’ worth of dog food to eat instead.
Truly and sincerely hope you are correct. If it does happen, I’ll be pleasantly surprised.
I know YOU see it so that Carroll is not going to win Super Bowl with Geno. I see it that way too. But I’m not at all sure Carroll sees it that way. That is my only point here. Same goes for the rest of this interpretation.
F.ex. I saw a not good enough QB against Commanders. It is possible that Carroll just saw a QB who orchestrated a game winning drive in the end.
Anyway, it was a good read. I hope they pick one of these QB:s.
He’s not deluded
Maybe just me but I want the books wiped clean of folks that have proven they aren’t worth their 2024 contract & I hope we re-commit to drafting & developing young talent with targeted FA deals. By all means bring in a QB via the draft & a vet or 2 that want to ‘prove it’. If we don’t win the QB lottery, as is very hard to do, then none of this will matter much but at least buy a ticket this coming draft.
Straight up cuts in 2024 so that our dead cap is paid in full going into 2025;
Mone $5.9M
Dissly $7M
Diggs $11M
Adams $6.1M
G. Smith $13.8M
Bellore $3.8M
That’s $47.6M opened up with a dead hit of $53.24M all in 2024 while our new QB is learning things. Re-sign our priority FAs & have a full wallet ready for 2025 with 2 more draft classes on scene.
We’ll have to get Pete on anti-delusion meds for this to have a prayer of happening. Or retire…
Most drafts end up with 2-3 QBs in the top ten. In a draft with less top end talent, QBs will get pushed up.
If the Hawks end up in the 20-32 range, I see great value in a “developmental” QB. I put the quotes because how they could potentially be able to surround the rookie QB with a solid defense, sound running game, weapons, and a decent OL. Recipe for success.
Pennix, Rattler, Ewers are all low end round 1 or day 2 guys. Get one. If you must wait, Cam Ward has some Steve McNair to him. But you need someone who can manage and not try to be hero.
They won’t force the pick, they won’t package together a bunch of picks to bet on a QB (even if they would do it for a box safety). I’m not excited for their QB pick. Might turn out great in the long run, but I don’t think it will be a sexy pick when it happens.
Thing that bothers me is that all the QBs I’d want to give a massive second contract to since say 2015, all of them were from the early first. Like Jalen Hurts, not gonna lie, I’m glad I don’t make those decisions because one good year, would’ve made me nervous. Dak? Meh.
Everyone saying they won’t take a qb are wrong I think. On fb and youtube comments I’m finally seeing tons of people saying its time for lock. Personally i was there at the end of last year, and maybe its right maybe not. The point is that the fanbase is finally getting upset. It’s starting with Geno but it will end with Pete if this offense doesnt turn around fast. Pete will be feeling this, as Rob said no one wants to see Fire Pete signs at the link. It’ll be ugly. Watch and see but we’re in for a ride the rest of the year and off season I think, amd the pressure will push the fo into a qb whether they wanted to or not.
The team will probably bounce back against the Commanders though, with Geno having a decent enough game, and everyone will praise him to hilt again until the next blowout.
Someone on Reddit, who appears to have a sister who works in some form for the team, says on Reddit that a ‘big receiver’ punched ‘another player who plays QB’ yesterday
Today, DK Metcalf is listed as DNP, having not even been on the injury report yesterday
Hmmmmm….
Hoo boy. And the trade deadline just passed.
I’m guessing all the usual sycophant media types wouldn’t report on this publicly but if it did happen, it’ll get out eventually. Just a matter of when.
Could well be nothing in it but still, the guy clearly has a relation who works there (per his other post)
Hopefully it’s BS
This was the post https://www.reddit.com/r/Seahawks/comments/17qzqfa/a_little_birdy_told_me_a_certain_large_wide/
DK wasn’t even at practise today
https://x.com/gbellseattle/status/1722758596189110714?s=46&t=uv5_Cfk4hepYHPYUO6WNbQ
He sat out last Thursday too, hip injury. Ya never know though.
His last three games 27 targets, 10 catches. 37% catch rate. It’d be interesting to see how this offense performs with out him with so many more targets going to other players.
For whatever reason, the Seahawks aren’t getting the productivity many expected out of DK. I think a change of scenery would help his career and the Seahawks. A win-win situation …..
If this is true, he needs to get his act together.
If DK doesnt start the first series, I might be more inclined to believe it.
Play Jake Bobo ahead of this clown anyway. Bobo does nothing but produce. DK is good for a drop or two and a couple of back breaking penalties per game.
But that would hurt his feelings 😩.
I’m open to trading DK in the off-season if they could get at least 2 2nd round picks for him (preferably high in 2024). Draft Ja’Lynn Polk. Our new starting QB will need professionals catching passes. Lockett, Bobo, JSN & Polk would be just fine.
Polk is solid. He’s not realky explosive most if his highlights are like JSN-lite, so it would be running four non explosive non field stretching WR’s. On short routes mostly. Seems limiting to me. Polk doesn’t bring anything to the table that DK did in college
Trade DK for a single 2nd and move on. Let some team use his strengths.
Hopefully Seattle magics into Rattler and Legette a serious replacement for DK and someone who is a problem to defend.
I get people are down on DK and I even thought they should trade him since they can’t use him….need a qb with a big arm, etc, other things Seattle can’t do…..
But Bobo needs to do better than 1 catch and change a gane to say he produces. Dudes fun but has done basically nothing so far.
OK so we have a WR who scores 40 TDs for us (I believe Lynch, Baldwin and Lockett are the only ones who scored more than him in Pete era), we don’t use him properly this year, and that justifies trading him for not producing more. Sorry, but I fail to understand the logic. Even with an alleged practice incident.
Meanwhile Bobo gets a couple TDs most likely because people don’t expect him to get targeted, and now he should be our WR1.
Said it before. This is how we get our 2nd back before next draft.
Rookie QB + rookie WR combo, with Lockett, JSN and Bobo. And hopefully no sign of Eskridge.
Trading him would cost $23m
You save $1.5m
So it isn’t an option, no
But….if he’s really throwing punches at Geno I think all bets are off.
I know there’s no excuse for violence and DK is a bone head, but this would he the second time Geno’s really really pissed someone off. Yet somehow he’s a great locker room guy.
People are really going overboard with the Bobo hype. I thought this would stop after the preseason, but I guess not. Dude has 10 catches in 8 games. Can we please pump the brakes on penciling him in as the #3 receiver next year? Half the reason we took JSN is the gaping hole we had at that spot. I’m sorry but JSN, Bobo, and a 32 year old Lockett is a genuinely mediocre receiving group.
Yeah, a lot of fans couldn’t handle the Super Bowl teams with all of the undrafted players. Let’s just settle down and stop acting like chihuahuas a little.
I’ll see your WR room and raise you that Lockett has admitted that he didn’t see himself playing this long in the first place.
Imagine a WR room of: JSN, Bobo, no lockett due to retirement, other….
That would be pretty grim.
I don’t know what’s going on with DK and Geno. Punches thrown? Not practicing? Though I don’t really buy that one they were an acceptable combo last year. His catch rate is trending down ( on him) while his QB is throwing over, under, and around him.
I dont want reports of players fighting to be true. Who knows if this is just a garbage report. I will say DK and Geno both have horrible in game emotional control and our QB was already punched by a player way back so I can sort of see it happening again.
Yes I forgot about that happening to Geno before!
Interesting.
You think Bryce Young gets carded at the liquor store?
All the time!
Punt returns can be exciting. The game tonight is the NFL version of Bum Fights. Like what happens right outside the store. LOL
I like the one where they gave a guy $20 to remove one of his front teeth with a pair of pliers.
He can’t throw 5 yards
Pete needs to read this piece on how to patiently construct a champion from OKC’s Sam Presti.
Presti might be the best GM I’ve ever seen in any sport
I’m not real familiar with these teams, but I do like the Bears Orange Uniforms! They also seem a little scrappier tonight.
So, we now have three players who have accepted invites to the Senior Bowl.
Tulane QB Michael Pratt
Kansas State TE Ben Sinnott
Kansas State OT Cooper Bebe
Cooper Beebe would be a great replacement for Damien Lewis. A proper Left Guard, I’d argue Lewis has never been the same since they moved him over to the Left side.
Will Beebe last until the 3rd round? You never know.
It will be shocking if Beebe lasts to R3
After watching Bryce Young last night I’m more convinced than ever that I think the Seahawks are trying to set up a foundation for a rookie QB who is taken in 2024.
The Panthers are leaving Young out to dry. They seem intent on making it as hard as possible for him.
A rookie QB next year in Seattle will have a RB room, WR room, and hopefully an uptick on the online and D in general.
And be on that crucially cheap contract so that any window will be open for a while.
They’re looking at so much dead money or just paying those ridiculous contracts though. I don’t want to just be negative because the idea of a rookie qb with this young foundation and money to spend sounds great. I worry that tge front office won’t learn from past mistakes and start being financially smarter. There were a few leavers this year to create money and they chose restructuring Diggs pushing a hige cap hit to next year. Why? He hasn’t played well at all. They needed to tell Adams take a pay cut or we’re releasing you. Those are the tough decisions teams like SF and Philly seem to usually make. The way SF moved Lance out almost ruthlessly impressed me. They admitted a mistake and moved on. PC and JS seem to chase bad decisions like gambling addicts trying to get the rent money back before the wife leaves them. This happened with LOB too. They’re great at building something but don’t know how to maintain it. Maybe they hire CHA as a consultant he usually has pretty good ideas 💡
I cannot remember a time with this team where I have felt this convinced that the long term success depends on how PC/JS view themselves. They have drafted so well and set themselves up. However, they are still putting resources into the wrong areas. IF they recognize this and the Leonard Williams trade was a step towards changing that with the knowledge that they had some big names to cut next year (Smith, Adams, Diggs), then this is a plan I can get behind. Add a rooke QB and a cheap veteran to this mix, along with a few cheap and hungry ‘dogs” at safety, then the plan makes sense (the price of the trade was still too steep but at least I understand the logic).
BUT if they truly felt that they were close enough this year to go all in, and let LW walk…I have no words
I would like to see LW retained but I don’t want the to go down the Adams road and sign him at any cost because they traded for him and don’t want to look stupid. I just replied to UkAlex with very similar sentiments so I wont go on a long tangent again but this team has to be better at accepting when a trade or a player isn’t working out and move on. Last year CHA wrote at the end of the year an article outlining the tough decisions the team needed to make going forward to get the cap right and have money to spend in the right areas. (trenches mostly) Time has proven most of that article to be prudent. If I remember correctly I don’t think they did anything on that list. Im not saying Cha is the ultimate authority on team building but that the solutions to many of these problems aren’t that difficult to suss out. They’re hard to implement absolutely but winning a championship is about those tough calls.
For me to become a believer in Pete again I need to see that guy who passed on surefire future seahawks Taylor Mays for Earl Thomas and brought in then cut LenDale White.
I’m dreading a big overpay for Williams. 2 yrs/ 15 million guranteed….fine. I’m not loving it but fine. They start getting into 3 yrs/ 30 million territory for a player years removed from great..no thanks.
Maybe the niners completely fall off a cliff….
I am envious that they just moved on from a very, very big mistake to keep looking forward.
Locking up old Diggs and average Adams to a ton of time/money is just completely unwilling or unable to see what “you,” are as a team.
Based on PFF grade Adams is below average my friend.
And 509 Chris, cha is a helluva smart guy when it comes to cap mgmt stuff but no offense to him (and he won’t take offense) if he can smartly figure this stuff out yet he isn’t in a front office and no NFL team is hiring him next week, why the hell can’t Pete and John??!!
Trying to be generous.
Keep hearing about how he doesn’t show up in stats he does all these other little things that make a team great ( we are not ).
Imagine Donald or TJ Watt getting around six sacks a year but paying them top of the mountain money because “presence.” Far as I can tell we are the only team that does that.
I spent some time poking around SDB this morning because I was convinced that Rob had already written ‘it’s wrong to think the Seahawks won’t’t draft a QB in round 1’ – couldn’t find it.
Rob did a great job in the comments above giving a mini outline of the reasons this opinion follows bad process, I had some points I wanted emphasize and add.
The easiest counter to this is to point out that there are at least 3QB that we know the Seahawks targeted in Round 1, and we don’t know to what extent they tried to move up for them. (Tannehill, Mahomes, Allen). That is nearly 25% (and I believe that Stroud and ARich were R1 considerations last year). Two of those years where the team had an incumbent all-pro starter. This also includes years like 2022 -where the Seahawks and the league at large didn’t see any R1 QBs
The arguments about no drafting in the mid-rounds has three general points 1) RW was playing like an all-pro, 2) the team has been pretty disciplined about staying with value if there isn’t a need 3) RW had a paper thin ego, so avoid ruffling his feathers if you don’t have to.
Passing on Levis 2x – this one is more specific to the 2023 draft. To state it succinctly, all that means is that the Org collectively projected Spoon and JSN to be higher priorities. We have heard a lot about the other names floated around Spoon, almost nothing has been said about JSN, Hall it was discussed that Char was having the table pounded for him, but the Org valued Hall more (1st rnd). How confident are you that Levis wasn’t a consideration with JSN? That he wouldn’t have been the pick where Hall was? I ultimately think the decision to not draft Levis is more proof that PC could be leaving the team in 2025.
To steal Rob’s metaphor, if I put down three prime filets on the floor for my dogs, they aren’t going to prioritize them the same way I do. But if I put down a filet, a strawberry and their food, I know what they are grabbing first.
——
One of the reasons I started going to SDB way back when was because there seemed to be a real effort to focus on who the Seahawks would select. I appreciated that since I felt like my favorite players were never drafted by my favorite team. It helped to see who they might take.
There are 5 QB in this draft who feel Seahawky to me, of those 5 all would be fine choices, only 1 feels like he shouldn’t be a first round choice. Only 1 feels like a sure thing, the other 4 seem to have boom and bust potential. I prefer boom or bust at the QB position.
——
Everyone has their own biases in what they like from QB play. It is important to acknowledge that in your own analysis. Some people prefer a scrambling dual threat, some like the classic arm cannon, some like a magic man, others prefer the surgical brainiac.
Don’t fall for the trap of elevating your preference above another in terms of league value, also don’t despair because every team in the playoff hunt has an example of these type of QB, each can win.
——
I don’t know when the Seahawks set up their big board, but right now I’d wager the QB column looks something like this:
R1
Caleb Williams
Shedur Sanders*
R2
Quinn Ewers
Riley Leonard*
Spencer Rattler
R3
Drake Maye
Will Howard
Jordan Travis
Brady Cook
Shedeur Sanders is a Junior. His brother His older brother Shilo is a graduate student.
I make this mistake all the time.
Also per their dad, they are both coming back to Colorado for another year.
Why I used the *
I imagine they keep a name on the board until it’s confirmed after the season the player will be entering the draft.
Unsure of that though
Pretty good stuff.
I will note that you’ve made mention of Wilson’s ego but I was trying to find the time when a top level QB was stoked on the team drafting their replacement….
I couldn’t find it. Favre and Rodgers were both petulant. Brady with Garropolo. Though he ultimately had nothing to worry about wasn’t exactly Mr. I’m taking this guy under my wing. I don’t remember Montana being too pumped.
Even Geno said all the right things last year but the way he is in game….I think he’s quite fortunate that his back up is Lock and not a first round pick from this year.
There is a big difference between scouting someone and drafting them.
There is a big difference between drafting QBs in Round 4 and later, and then round one through three.
Almost everyone here has had the experience of an employer or a customer trying to find someone younger and cheaper to replace them with.
By my unofficial count, somewhere around 10 to 12 QB’s were drafted during the Favre/Rodgers era – not counting Rodgers or Jordan love. That’s off the top of my head, though there could be others.
Right but Favre was displeased with Rodgers, etc, with the rest.
Maybe Wilson was super fragile about the mahomes thing. I’ll buy it.
Lost in the never ender is JS wanted to trade Wilson to the worst team in the league to get Allen.
They day that was made known I think all parties had a right to tell each other to “f… off.”
This is all 90% speculation and 10% parsing post draft presser:
– they drafted based on their board, less so for need
– they would have taken Stroud or AR if they were there at 5
– they would have been happy with Will McDonald and Mingo, but ended up with JSN and Hall
– they wanted Benton, went BPA on Charbs
– I don’t think Levis was in consideration
– re: QB – it’s clear they need someone and Geno ain’t it- whether they value using a high pick on a QB has yet to be demonstrated, PCJS are too good to end up with another Top 5 pick natively, so we’re left to speculate they’d be opportunistic with veteran QBs, reclamation projects, or rookies who fall in the draft
– here’s to hoping a QB falls to them in R1 2024 with many teams needing a new QB
I’m sure I read that Will Anderson confirmed in an interview that they Seahawks had told him they were taking him if he was there at 5. Don’t know if these means he was first on their board or if it meant they thought Stroud and AR had no chance of being there.
I’ve never seen any evidence they were out on Levis, nor heard a convincing argument. Some pundits had an irrational hatred of Levis that really has brought their full breadth of opinions into question.
I will look for the article that suggested PC was stomping his feet for Char at the Hall pick, but the team stayed true to its board.
DT was obviously the R3 priority, which is why they traded it (suspected Pickens, Young(Bama), Dexter)
Anderson was the teams top choice, but I believe they felt that both Stroud and ARich would have to be gone for them to get him.
I doubt they were completely out- but they definitely were not “in” – most of liked him and were in shock when they passed on him for JSN and didn’t trade up from early R2- they had plenty of chances to get him if they wanted
I think that they were planning on Stroud and Richardson being gone. One thing that John is good at is having a general idea how the draft will fall and when the run for certain positions will happen (other than 2019….)
Unfortunately the Google firewall (or whatever they are) issues were resolved for 1 day. It worked yesterday, but I’m back to not being able to get on the site in some networks.
Are you sure? It’s still OK for me
I’m sure.
Worked yesterday. Doesn’t work today on a couple networks I use regularly, on any browser.
Not a huge deal for me personally, just turn the WiFi off and it works fine. Just thought I would mention it and see if anyone else saw the same.
Weird
Do you think Joe Milton gets drafted? All the physical tools in the world, but has struggled with down field reads. He has played better as of late, but nowhere near the preseason hype.
I don’t think so personally
Here’s Jim Nagy personally inviting Kansas OL Dominck Puni to play all five positions at the Senior Bowl.
https://x.com/seniorbowl/status/1722758615746871542?s=20
(In Hulk voice) “Puni God.”
Biggest question for me is who will be available around pick 15.
Bleacher Report had some half-assed mock/check in for the college season.
Maye going first to the Bears and Caleb Williams dropping to 4th overall to the Pats.
Some people are vastly overqualified for their jobs. I don’t know if people are just tired of Williams or want to be different, but Tim Hasselbeck said he would do whatever to get Maye first overall. Sometimes pushing a narrative to have something different just really doesn’t look good for credibility.
It’s the Andrew Luck fallacy. Remember when Luck was coming out and everyone said he was a lock to go first? Then RG3 came on the scene and won the Heisman, so all the talking heads were saying he was surging ahead of Luck, but that never happened.
Basically everyone knows that Caleb Williams is going first except for those in extreme denial and talking about another candidate challenging him will drive clicks and segments on TV and podcasts.
Regarding the “will they, won’t they” in drafting a QB, I think a really underrated element isn’t being discussed here. That element is, quite simply, that Pete Carroll has ALWAYS had his greatest success with good QBs. Going back to USC, there are only two players that I remember playing defense (Polamalu and Tatupu), and half a dozen QBs. When discussing his college championships, people talk about Reggie Bush and Matt Leinart, but never mention defensive players.
I say all of this because I don’t think Pete is oblivious to the importance of the position. Frankly, he arguably blew up the last team because he thought the QB was more important than the defense. And regardless of what he says at press conferences, there is no way they stick with Geno if he continues to play this way. It is the antithesis of his philosophy. He has always been about balanced football, explosive plays in the run and passing game, and protecting the football. With K9 and Charbs, we’ve got potential for an explosive run game. We have a plethora of weapons. We’ve invested heavily in the Oline. And Geno is playing awful. There’s no explosion in the pass game anymore, not reliably, and Geno doesn’t protect the football. Geno, if he keeps this up, is done here on this deal.
Finally, there is the notion that Pete doesn’t want a young QB, because he wants to win now. I don’t buy this for a second. He won his last superbowl with a young QB, and he really enjoys coaching young players. He is a person that thrives on youthful energy and wants to turn young men into leaders. I think he would relish the opportunity to bring in a young guy with heaps of tangibles and intangibles. As to why they haven’t so far? I think Schneider and Pete are simply being picky, and the opportunity hasn’t necessarily been there.
The “pickiness” at the QB position I think has stemmed from two realities: 1) they believe in building the roster first and searching through castoffs from around the league at QB to see if they can strike gold; 2) early picks at QB are substantial investments and they have wanted to be sure. My guess is that Carroll thinks he has one crack at this before he retires, and wants to get it right. Schneider has built up a reputation as an excellent QB scout, and wants to keep it that way. He also probably gets just one shot at an early round QB, as who knows what the next owner wil think of him. If his QB pick looks bad, he probably gets shown the door.
https://twitter.com/zkeefer/status/1722980428536062365
Since that topic might come back to us not too far in the future, can we all agree that the S2 test *might* have some influence, but is far from being the truth?
I don’t care what the QBs score, if you like them, draft them.
I think CJ Stroud vs. Bryce Young may have sunk their battleship…
I’m thinking of suing them for emotional distress after them getting my hopes up that Stroud would drop to us, only for those hope to be resoundly crushed.
I’ll join that case.
Please stop the insanity and just go get Rattler
I watched a video of every play of Riley Leonard in the Clemson upset. I came away impressed with his mobility for a tall QB, specifically, his awareness of the pocket around him. He seemed to detect where it was collapsing, and when and where to move to. His touch on drop it over a defender type passes and passes on the run seemed off every time, though. I don’t know if that’s the norm for him, but he would have been much deadlier if he had been a better passing threat on the run. I wonder if thats the norm for his game?
The Clemson game:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Rs5wivDo6Ec&pp=ygUSUmlsZXkgbGVvbmFyZCAyMDIz
Peacock show time..
One made tackle and bunch of missed sacks and tackles..unlimited show off
Even a rookie 6th round safety plays better