Author: Kip Earlywine (Page 9 of 13)

Written by Kip Earlywine

Rundown: Nicknamed “The Hammer” for his bone crushing hits, Ronnell Lewis was a junior year defensive end for Oklahoma.  He is a projected outside linebacker in the NFL.

Age: 21  (September 17, 1990)

Height:  6’2″

Weight:  253

40 time:  4.69

10 yard split:  1.61

3 cone:  7.09

Vertical Jump:  31″

Compilation Videos:

vs. Texas

vs. Florida St.

Positives:

• Big
• Fast for his size
• Powerful
• High football IQ, reads plays well and has a nose for the ball
• Doesn’t give up on plays
• High motor
• Sub-elite edge rush ability
• Big time special teams contributor
• Hard hitter
• Great tackler

Negatives:

• Tweener label
• Essentially no experience at LB
• Coverage ability is an unknown

Ronnell Lewis is a first round talent who could take quite a tumble on draft day, all for one innocent and unfortunate problem: his coaches played him at the wrong position in college.  Lewis played defensive end at Oklahoma, but he physically resembles a stud SAM linebacker.  Watching Lewis I was quickly reminded of scouting Aaron Curry three years ago.  Lewis has a big frame and looks like Aaron Curry physically (both are 6’2″ and Curry is just a pound heavier).  Lewis is not quite the freak athlete that Curry was, but he’s an above average athlete especially for his size and is equally as powerful, though Lewis stays in control and plays with more intelligence than Curry did.  Its kind of funny how they contrast in a way- Curry was the rock solid linebacker who was a total unknown as a pass rusher, where Lewis is a capable pass rusher who is an unknown at linebacker.

Lewis is a well rounded player with many positives and no real negatives save uncertainty.  The reason he won’t be a first round pick is because of the dreaded tweener label.  Lewis is too small to be a 3-4 end, he is slightly undersized for the strong side end role in a 4-3, he’s not quite quick enough or skilled enough as a pass rusher to be a weak  side end, and while he looks the part of a 4-3 SAM linebacker, he has no experience at the position really so his effectiveness there, particularly in coverage, is an unknown.

Above I linked two of Lewis’ game compilations, and you will see that he pretty much plays defensive end in every snap, with a few special teams plays thrown in for good measure.  I can only guess how well Lewis’ skills will translate to outside linebacker, but I really like his tape.  He uses his speed and strength well in the pass rush, he gets hustle sacks and makes a lot of difficult do-or-die tackles in space.  I love how he wraps up so well yet still throws his opponent to the ground with force- just to be sure.  At least from this sample, his mental mistakes seem to be minimal, and he almost always seems to know when it is wisest to wait and wisest to attack.  In many ways, he’s like Kam Chancellor the defensive end.  Just a solid contributor every snap who wins you over with consistent quality play.

In Conclusion:

Sometimes the tweener label can lead to a team finding a bargain value.  Brandon Mebane was thought to be too big to be a 3 tech but too small to be a nose tackle or 1 tech.  Seattle drafted him late in the 3rd round, much later than his talent deserved, and found he could be a very effective 1 tech after all.  Kam Chancellor was thought to be too slow or too stiff to handle the coverage responsibilities of a strong saftey, but was also unproven as an outside linebacker.  Seattle took him in the 5th and found a way to work around Chancellor’s weaknesses, making him an immediate pro-bowler at strong safety.  Ronnell Lewis could very well become a pro-bowler for some lucky team in the mid-2nd round, a team that is willing to take a chance on the uncertainty of Lewis’ NFL future.

Relative to his draft stock, Lewis is one of my favorite 2012 prospects.  Sadly, I don’t think Seattle will draft him under normal circumstances.  Seattle already has an able SAM ‘backer in KJ Wright, and while they could move Wright to Mike to accommodate Lewis, I sense that the Seahawks want more speed and more coverage out of the Mike than Wright can provide.  If Seattle drafts Upshaw or Ingram in the first round (which is likely), that would further complicate things if that first round selection plays a DE/SAM hybrid role, which is pretty much exactly what Ronnell Lewis is and would make his selection redundant.

Probably the only way Lewis becomes a Seahawk is if Seattle is given a great offer and trades so far out of the #12 pick that they miss out on all of Coples, Ingram, and Upshaw.  If that happens and Seattle goes a different direction in the first round, they could take Lewis in the 2nd round and use him in a very similar manner to how a guy like Upshaw or Hightower would be used- a hybrid DE/LB.  If Seattle takes Upshaw or Ingram in round 1, then that probably eliminates Lewis later on.  At this point, Lewis is probably only a contingency option for Seattle.  Which I think is a darn shame.  I know it wouldn’t be easy, but if Seattle could find a way to find a role for Lewis in round two, I’d be pretty excited about it.  He’s a risk, but there is a good chance he could become one of the NFL’s better SAM linebackers.

Written by Kip Earlywine

Rundown:  Sean Spence is a senior linebacker from the Miami Hurricanes.  He played most of his snaps at middle linebacker.  He was the ACC defensive rookie of the year in 2008.  He has 47.0 career tackles for loss, the second highest career total among 2011 players.

Age:  23 (January 17, 1989)

Height:  5’11”

Weight:  231

40 time:  4.71

10 yard split:  1.59

3 cone:  7.08

Vertical Jump:  33.50″

Compilation Videos:

vs. Clemson (2010)

vs. Kansas St. and Florida St.

Positives:

• Fast
• Aggressive minded, attacks gaps and makes plays behind the line of scrimmage
• Has the burst and closing speed to become a potentially useful blitzer
• Built to excel in coverage
• Capable of delivering hard hits and impressive tackles
• Textbook hand use / fights off blocks well

Negatives:

• Undersized
• Mistake prone
• Occasionally gets sloppy with tackling technique

Sean Spence ran a disappointing 4.71 forty time at the combine, which is straddling the line between average and below average.  Its actually a slower time than those clocked by Leroy Hill (4.65) or even David Hawthorne (4.69 at his pro-day).  As said before, track speed is not the same thing as field speed, and to my eye Spence plays with above average field speed, perhaps a touch less than Bobby Wagner, who clocked a 4.45 time.  I don’t think general managers are going to put much stock into Spence’s 40 time.  They know how fast he is from tape study.

Spence wasn’t quite the linebacker I expected when I watched his compilation videos.  I was expecting a player like Bobby Wagner: consistent, mistake free, and boring.  Spence is different.  He made some splash plays.  He had a sack.  He attacked the first level with good timing which led to many tackles for loss.  I’ve seen a lot of scouting reports that sing praises for Spence’s instincts, and I’d like to as well, but I just can’t.  Not from this sample.  He missed tackles that led to extra yards gained.  He took poor angles in pursuit that turned what could have been a moderate gain and turned it into a big one.  On the second play of the Clemson compilation, he misread and over pursued his run responsibility which directly led to a 71 yard touchdown run.  Spence is erratic.  In this sample it felt like he had more negative plays than splashy ones.

For all of his ugly plays, Spence does occasional show some pretty tackles.  It seems like when Spence has a chance to square up, he can hit and wrap as well as Seattle’s #31: Kam Chancellor.

Spence is undersized, but I’m not sure how much that matters when projecting to the NFL.  His size was not an issue at Miami.  He uses excellent hand technique to almost instantly shed blockers.  Its not every day that one of the smallest linebackers is also one of the best at shedding blocks.  If I had to pick one thing I like about Spence the most- it’s his hand use against blockers.

Spence has fluid hips and has the athleticism to be an excellent coverage linebacker.  As far as how good he actually played in coverage, I really can’t say from the footage I’ve found, although the consensus among scouting reports is very positive.

In conclusion:

Sean Spence is often mocked in the 3rd or 4th round, and after finally scouting him, I feel that’s a pretty fair appraisal.  He has a knack for making plays.  He had 14 TFLs last year and 17 TFLs the year before.  Very few linebackers can boast those kind of numbers.  Bobby Wagner had less than half that many TFLs when playing the 4-3 Mike role from 2009-2010.  But Spence also makes a lot of mistakes.  He’s the kind of guy that can win the game for you on 4th down, but lose the game for you the next week on a crucial late game play.  Both Spence and Wagner can cover and have speed.  Does Seattle prefer the safer version or the gambler?  My gut tells me that Seattle would rather have the safer player, especially if they rely on just two linebackers in a 5-2 front with any consistency.

Regardless of Seattle’s preferences, I’d be a little surprised if they didn’t have both Wagner and Spence on their radar somewhere.  Perhaps Spence could be an insurance policy in rounds 3 or 4 depending on what happens at #43.

Written by Kip Earlywine

Rundown: Bobby Wagner (not to be confused with Robert Wagner) is the star “middle” linebacker in Utah State’s 3-4 defense.  After improving each season, Wagner was named WAC defensive player of the year last season.

Age:  21 (June 27, 1990)

Height: 6’0″ (6003)

Weight: 241

40 time: 4.45 (pro-day)

10 yard split: n/a

3 cone: 7.03 (pro-day)

Vertical Jump: 39.5″ (pro-day)

Compilation Videos:

vs. Auburn

vs. Nevada

vs. San Jose St.

vs. LA tech.

Positives:

• Fast
• Nose for the football, tackle machine
• Can slip off blocks when pass rushing from the line
• Scheme diverse experience
• Effective in man coverage
• Intelligent
• Pursues well
• No major, glaring flaws

Negatives:

• Small school competition
• Boring tape- would struggle to fill a highlight reel
• Could be more aggressive / he lets the play come to him too much
• Finesse player, not very physical
• Very slightly undersized / struggles to get off blocks

On paper, Robert Wagner sounds like a can’t miss prospect, which in combination with his blazing fast pro day forty time has vaulted him into fringe 1st round consideration.  A lot of people are penciling Wagner in as a “top 40” pick, which would obviously put him right in Seattle’s cross hairs at #43.  Seattle is close to a deal that would bring back David Hawthorne for a time, but the long term plan is to get faster in the second level, and middle linebacker is no exception.

Wagner attended the combine but sat out for the workout portion, as he had a case of pneumonia.  He performed instead at his pro day, and posted some very impressive numbers including a forty time on par with Mychal Kendricks’.  That said, I’m generally a bit wary of pro-day numbers.  It seems like athletes almost always post better performances at their pro-days than at the combine.  Maybe its the extra time to get in shape?  Maybe its the lack of jet lag?  Maybe the track in Indy is slightly more harsh than most other places?  I don’t know the exact reason, but athletes almost always seem to improve their numbers at their pro-days.  Another thing is that pro-day numbers tend to be somewhat less scientific than combine numbers, and can lead to a variety of reported times, which Rob pointed out the other day.  So for a lot of reasons, I think Wagner’s numbers should have a bit of an asterisk next to them, at least when compared to other players who’s numbers were taken at the combine.

Additionally, track speed and field are not the same thing.  Kendricks official forty time was 4.47, which is “slower” than Wagner’s 4.45 (reported as 4.46 some places), but as soon as you put on the tape, you can clearly see that Kendicks is noticeably faster and more explosive than Wagner looks (at least in my opinion).  So take Wagner’s forty time for what you will.  I get the feeling that this front office cares more about how fast a player runs in pads than how fast he can run in shorts.  Bottom line, Wagner has above average speed which will appeal to the Seahawks, but after scouting him for four games, I’m not buying into the hype about his speed.

Wagner’s height and weight are both very slightly undersized, and in terms of style, he plays like an undersized linebacker.  He doesn’t deliver very many hard hits and seems to prefer making tackles at an angle rather than squaring for a bone jarring hit.  Some scouts may view that as a good thing, as avoiding big hits would mean fewer injuries and greater longevity.  I’m not a scout nor have I been trained as one.  I have no idea if its a good thing or not, but I generally have a bias strongly in favor of mean or nasty linebackers in the mold of Patrick Willis or Ray Lewis.  Hawthorne and Hill may not possess sub 4.5 speed, but there is an impact from the physical nature of their play, and if possible I’d like to see Seattle get faster at linebacker without sacrificing that chip on the shoulder.  Wagner is a bit too finesse for my tastes, with most of his tackles being of the assist variety, a product of his pursuit ability but also his lack of aggression.

Wow, I’m getting a bit ahead of myself by stating conclusions before I’ve even finished explaining my appraisal, so I’ll back things up a bit.

Bobby Wagner is a good football player, at least for a WAC defender.  He had 114 tackles in his first season as a full time starter at 4-3 middle linebacker in 2009.  He had 133 tackles in the same 4-3 role the next season.  During those two 4-3 scheme seasons combined, he amassed only 0.5 sacks and only 15 tackles for loss total.  Wagner is a consistent performer game to game, and that includes him consistently not making plays in the backfield.  Wagner saw a big spike his in his 2011 statistics, jumping to the following all-star level stat line:  147 tackles, 4 sacks, 2 INT, 11.5 TFL.  Those numbers are deceptive though, as that season Utah St. switched to a 3-4 defense and played Wagner at outside linebacker for many of his snaps.  From the four game sample above, he was lined up at the line of scrimmage on roughly half his snaps, and nearly all of his tackles for loss and sacks that I witnessed came from his use in a 3-4 outside linebacker role, which doesn’t really help Seattle as they will presumably already have a 3-4 outside linebacker type on the team in either Upshaw or Ingram by the 2nd round.  Having that diversity is nice for helping Wagner get drafted high, but its not especially useful to Seattle.

In conclusion:

When Wagner is lined up at inside linebacker, he doesn’t blitz inside well.  He doesn’t shoot gaps to rack up tackles for loss.  He almost seems to fear contact (though not as skittish as Zach Brown) and relies heavily on assisted tackles.   If Seattle drafts Wagner to play middle linebacker in their 4-3, he’ll be good in man coverage, decent (but not great) against the run, and nearly non-existent in the pass rush (barring further improvement).  Wagner may have ran a 4.45 forty time at his pro-day, but on the field he looks closer to a 4.60, which is still pretty fast but not amazing.  I don’t always see things eye to eye with this front office and prospects, so I can’t predict if they will share this evaluation, but I’d personally grade Wagner as a 4th round guy, especially considering how severely 4-3 linebackers have been devalued recently.  Wagner will very likely be a top 63 pick though- his well rounded game, excellent underwear athleticism, consistent play, knack for staying healthy and scheme diversity will put him somewhere on the radar of every NFL team.  Especially after running a 4.45 forty.

Still, Wagner is a possibility for the Seahawks, because even though linebackers with Wagner’s skills can be found much later in the draft, linebackers with his speed cannot, even if you are as pessimistic about his speed as I am.  I wouldn’t hate the pick, but there are plenty of other names in the 2nd round discussion who excite me more.  Wagner won’t transform a defense, but he’s a safe, if boring, bet.

Not pictured: Robert Turbin's Skittles

Written by Kip Earlywine

Rundown:  Nicknamed “The Turbinator” by some and “Hulk” by others, Robert Turbin is a bruising and highly productive runner from Utah State of the Western Athletic Conference.

Age:  22 (December 2, 1989)

Height: 5’10″

Weight: 222

40 time: 4.50

10 yard split: n/a

3 cone: 7.16

Vertical jump: 36″

Random trivia: Out of 67 running backs who performed at the combine, Turbin’s 28 bench press reps was tied for first with Doug Martin and Duane Bennett…   Robert Turbin is from Oakland, the same hometown as Marshawn Lynch….  The second highlight video on Youtube for Turbin has the words “BEAST MODE” in its description…  Lynch and Turbin have never been seen together…  Turbin played his home games at Romney Stadium, named in honor of Mitt Romney’s father’s cousin… I accidentally typed the word “Turban” five times while writing this post.

Compilation Videos:

vs San Jose State 2011

vs Ohio (Bowl) 2011

vs BYU 2011

Positives:

• Super strong:  Thick lower body, huge arms
• Good size for his height
• Rarely stopped cold, he often pushes forward for extra yardage
• Very high yards per carry without being part of a gimmick offense
• Respectable production as a backfield receiver
• Nose for the endzone
• Deceptively high top speed
• Disciplined runner who avoids the temptation to bounce outside if the play doesn’t call for it
• Solid vision and change of direction skills
• Willing blocker

Negatives:

• Non-BCS level of competition
• Looks slow behind the line- takes a while to get up to top speed
• Missed 2010 season from a knee injury
• Explosiveness looks average at best
• Breaks surprisingly few tackles

Last season, Robert Turbin rushed for 1517 yards and had 23 total touchdowns (19 rushing).  He averaged 6.1 yards per carry, one of the higher rates in the nation.  His size, speed, and production are all very close to Ryan Mathews when he came out of the WAC two years ago, and both enter the NFL with some injury concerns.  Mathews was drafted 12th overall.  Granted, I wasn’t one of Mathew’s biggest fans back in 2010 (I gave him a 3rd round grade), but I don’t see a ton of separation between Mathews and Turbin as prospects.

So why isn’t Turbin talked about as a first round pick or at least a top five running back?  To be honest, I’m not quite sure.  Perhaps its partially because 2012 is a loaded running back class or the fact that seemingly nobody spends much time talking about him.  Of course, just because pundits don’t talk about a player doesn’t mean that scouts haven’t already written a book on the guy.  Honestly, it wouldn’t shock me if Turbin goes earlier than some big name running backs like Chris Polk, David Wilson or Isaiah Pead.

This isn’t to say that I think Turbin is a carbon copy of Mathews, I think a much better comparison would be Marshawn Lynch with less tackle breaking ability and less lateral agility.  Turbin is a determined guy and he runs like it.  He’s the kind of back that would rather lower his shoulder into a linebacker than try to juke him.

Turbin has deceptive speed.  His 4.50 forty time is the real deal, but unfortunately it takes him a little while to reach it.  Playing in the WAC, his 4.50 speed might as well be a 4.40, as he has runs of 80 and 96 yards in his last two playing seasons.  Turbin probably won’t be a regular big play threat in the NFL, but every once in a while he’ll give you a nice sideline scamper- think along the lines of Marshawn Lynch’s 47 yarder against the Giants last year.

In conclusion:

Other than possible knee concerns, there is a lot to like about Turbin and not much to dislike.  For my money he’s a 3rd round talent or better, and if his current level of non-hype is any indication, there is a chance he may last until the 4th or 5th round.  Turbin fits very well with Seattle’s philosophy of physical play and it wouldn’t surprise me if he made an impact immediately.  There are many running backs I like more than Turbin, but if Seattle waits until the 3rd or 4th round and all the big name running backs are gone, Turbin is an excellent fallback option.  He could end up being a steal for some team.

Written by Kip Earlywine

Rundown: Jonathan Massaquoi was a strong side 4-3 defensive end for the Troy Trojans of the Sun Belt conference.  He is often listed on draft sites as an outside linebacker (strictly for a 3-4 scheme) despite never really playing in that capacity in college.

Age: 23  (May 11, 1988)

Height: 6’2″

Weight: 264

40 time: 4.89

10 yard split: 1.64

3 cone: 7.38

Excuse me as I wander though the wilderness a bit, I promise the trek will be quick.  A few weeks back, I stumbled across a bit of an insider article at Buffalo Rumblings, the SBN site for all things Buffalo Bills.  This was a week or so before free agency.  The article cited interviews with Bills general manager Buddy Nix and quoted the Bills beat writer from the official Bills website- basically their version of Clare Farnsworth.  I won’t link the article or tell you everything it said, because this is Seahawks draft blog and not Bills draft blog, but the gist of it was that Buffalo wasn’t really interested at all in drafting a pass rusher at #10, despite the fact that nearly every mock draft had them doing exactly that.

Nix is not exactly a subtle man, and he hardly displayed excitement for some of the pass rush names at the top of the draft, while continually going back to what he called (paraphrasing) “one of the better mid-round pass rush draft classes in a while.”  Hearing Nix repeatedly talk up mid round pass rushers, it reminded me a bit of how John Schneider kept repeating the mantra about “not panicking” for a quarterback- both GMs wanted to prepare their fanbases for potentially unpopular moves to come.  The article came to the conclusion- and from a fair amount of evidence- that Nix actually had his eye on the mid rounds for a pass rusher and would make up for it by going after pass rushers in free agency.

We all know what happened since then.  Nix handed out $140 million in contracts for pass rushers, including Mario Williams.

Since then, I’ve wondered exactly which mid round players enticed Buddy Nix back then.  Bruce Irvin?  Vinny Curry?  Jonathan Massaquoi?  Buddy Nix might not be the best GM in the business, but looking at some of the names that could be had later- I think he has a point on this one.

So anyway, back to Massaquoi.

Positives:

• Long arms  (34 1/4″)
• Enough bulk and quickness to play either DE spot in a 4-3.
• Occasionally brilliant snap recognition, sometimes explodes into the backfield before offensive linemen come completely out of their stances
• Strong initial burst off the snap (which is backed up by an above average 10 yard split)
• Diverse pass rush repertoire, can attack the edge or collapse with the bull rush
• High motor
• Knows how to penetrate inside
• Stays low and uses good leverage

Negatives:

• Doesn’t keep his eyes in the backfield
• Struggles to fight off run blocking
• Hand use is disappointing given how long his arms are
• Change of direction speed isn’t great (he had one of the slower three cones too)
• Old for a rookie (24 in May)
• Small school competition
• Not much experience as a 3-4 linebacker if teams draft him for it

2010 season video:

In some ways, Massaquoi is a fringe first round talent.  In terms of size and length, he’s as good as any defensive end in this draft.  His arms were the 4th longest among the 30 defensive ends invited to the combine.  He’ll occasionally flash dominance, exploding off the snap and zipping around the edge so fast that the right tackle never stood a chance.  Massaquoi has a hint of nastiness to his game too- he’s not afraid to pop quarterbacks, which is really fun- at least until it draws penalties at the next level.  He fires off keeping his shoulders low which allows him to get results with a bull rush or inside penetration, so he’s hardly an edge rushing one trick pony.  He even blocked a kick on an interior rush last year.  If you were to look at how physically gifted Massaquoi is, especially playing for a smaller school, you might assume he had a questionable motor since he could skate by on athleticism.  He doesn’t.  He gives 100% on every snap.  There is something to be said for that.

There is one big problem with Massaquoi though, and its probably why a lot of scouts are projecting him as a 3-4 outside linebacker.  He doesn’t keep his eyes in the backfield, which often turns him into a liability.  Several times a game, running backs will run within arms reach of him, and he won’t even know it happened until its too late.  He sometimes also loses sight of the quarterback and will miss opportunities because of it.  This is something that is technically coachable- but I wouldn’t hold out much hope of it being corrected.  Massaquoi has been playing football for a long time, and even high school level coaches teach defensive lineman to keep their eyes on the ball carrier.  He hasn’t developed that skill yet, even after playing football for many years.

If used as a 3-4 linebacker, Massaquoi could attack gaps and edges which would be an ideal situation given his speed, burst, liability against the run and his difficulty seeing beyond blockers.  If Seattle is willing to draft Ingram or Upshaw and use them for 3-4 looks, they would presumably be willing to do so for Massaquoi as well.

In conclusion:

I do not expect Seattle to draft Jonathan Massaquoi under normal circumstances.  I think they will draft Courtney Upshaw, Melvin Ingram or Quinton Coples at #12 and go about the rest of the draft addressing other areas- particularly linebacker and running back.  But what if Seattle gets an offer they can’t refuse at the #12 pick?  Its unlikely, but if Seattle is offered a trade package that includes a 2013 first round pick, they’d be hard pressed to turn it down (I’m looking at you, Matt Barkley).  I’m sure Seattle is preparing for that situation by having a backup plan in place.  Massaquoi could be a part of that plan later in the draft.

Written by Kip Earlywine

A brief announcement:

Veteran readers may recall that in 2010, I did a daily series covering prospects titled “player of the day” or POTD for short.  People seemed to enjoy reading them, but in terms of results, it was an abject failure.  I covered about 30 or 40 players or so in that series.  Only one of them (Earl Thomas) was actually drafted by the Seahawks, and he was a player I almost didn’t include because like most people I was assuming Seattle was only considering six foot plus defensive backs.

In my own defense, Rob and I did not yet have a direct pipeline to our inside source (although the source did tell us that Seattle loved “Thomas” before that draft- which I assumed meant Demaryius Thomas).  The inside source has been much more generous this year, providing a list of names and front office insights for the #12 pick and the exact rounds Seattle will target certain positions through the rest of the draft, which is a huge benefit to us and makes projecting the Seahawks draft far less of a shot in the dark than two years ago.  There was also the fact that Seattle had a ton of needs that year which led to them having a relatively unpredictable BPA oriented draft.  And finally, there was the fact that it was John Schneider’s first ever draft as a GM, which was further muddled by the fact that he was presumably taking orders from Pete Carroll, a bit of an unknown in his own right since he swore to do things differently than his previous NFL jobs.

When the draft rolled around, the Eagles made a dramatic trade up right in front of Seattle for Brandon Graham in the first round, and the Browns made a big trade up right in front of Seattle for Montario Hardesty in round two.  Those were two players I especially liked in my POTD series, so I’ve always felt those events were interesting coincidences.  As it turns out, the rest of the league was just as much in the dark about John Schneider’s style and preferences as I was.  With some good insider info and two years of experience covering this front office, I’m hoping this year’s spotlights will end up being more accurate.

I always thought that “POTD” sounded kind of clunky, so this year I’m changing the name to Draft Spotlight.  Expect about four entries a week, possibly as much as six in a week if I have enough time.  The goal is to cover twenty or so random players before the draft next month.

And so today, I’ll begin with Michael Egnew: tight end from Missouri.  I want to remind everyone now that most of these write-ups will not be scouting reports.  They will more closely resemble a research essay.  So please do not take my opinions as gospel, especially not in this series.

~

Michael Egnew, TE, Missouri

A year ago, Michael Egnew was Blaine Gabbert’s go to guy.  Blaine Gabbert ended up a top ten pick, and Michael Egnew picked up All-American honors before returning for his fourth year.  Michael Egnew had 90 receptions in 2010 when paired with Gabbert.  Ninety.  That is not a typo.  Even without Gabbert the Missouri tight end had 50 catches in 2011.  To put that in perspective, potential first round pick Coby Fleener had a career high 34 receptions last year.  The Megatron-esque Austin Seferian-Jenkins of Washington had 41 receptions last year.  The top drafted tight end in 2011 (Kyle Rudolph) never had more than 33 receptions in a season.  Jeremy Shockey had a college season high of 40 grabs.  The last first round tight end to be drafted (Jermaine Gresham) had a career high of 66 receptions (but only 37 the year before).  To say the least, Egnew’s 140 reception total over the last two years is eye catching.

There is just one problem.  Was Michael Egnew really even a tight end?  Below I’ve included a compilation video from Egnew’s 2010 All-American season.

Michael Egnew NFL Draft Analysis – 2010 Season

Meticulous observers will notice right away that in Missouri’s spread offense, Egnew usually lines up in the slot, and occasionally even as a flanker, but almost never on the line.  Now it could just be that Egnew did line up on the line a fair amount, and the video compiler chose to leave those plays out because Egnew did not factor in them.  Still, shouldn’t it be worrisome that just about every single reception Egnew had in that video came from him lining up like a wide receiver?  Missouri basically treated Egnew as a receiver with the benefit of his being covered by linebackers.  Suddenly its no wonder at all that he amassed 140 receptions the last two years.

Egnew measured in at the combine at just a hair over 6’4″ and weighed in at 251 pounds, which in case you are wondering is the same weight as the departed John Carlson.  Egnew ran a strong 4.62 forty time.  It may not be the blistering 4.4s range time that Fleener put up at his pro-day, but its enough to make Egnew one of the fastest draftable tight ends on paper.  I have to admit that his forty time is a bit of a surprise though, most scouting reports on Egnew describe him as slow and my own observation of him is that he frequently has poor separation.   He also had just 9.2 yards per catch over those 140 receptions the last two years, and low yards per catch is often a good barometer of speed and separation (Mike Williams and TJ Houshmandzadeh are good examples of this).

As far as blocking goes (and I’m basing this off of what I’ve read), he’s often described as a guy that tries hard but doesn’t get the best results.

My thoughts:

If I didn’t know any better, I’d wonder if I was writing a report on John Carlson four years ago.  In terms of size, speed, separation, hands, blocking skills, and yards after catch, Carlson and Egnew are pretty damn similar.  This is interesting because Seattle just lost John Carlson in free agency, and could be looking to replace him in the draft should an opportunity present itself.

But here is a question I have:  is Seattle looking to replace John Carlson with another John Carlson?  Part of me suspects not.  Sure, its reasonable that Seattle wouldn’t want to match Minnesota’s 5/25 deal for Carlson’s services, but what about a 1/5 deal instead?  Because that’s what the franchise tag would have cost for Carlson, and Seattle didn’t use it.  Seattle didn’t appear to try very hard to negotiate with Carlson before free agency either.  Keep in mind that they did this in the same offseason in which they rewarded Red Bryant, a 333 pound defensive end with two career sacks, a $35 million contract.  John Schneider has shown that when he wants a guy back, he doesn’t play around.  Yet he barely lifted a finger to keep Carlson.

I suspect that Seattle’s ideal number two tight end is a guy like Anthony McCoy without the drops.  Someone that is strong as a blocker first and foremost and is also a weapon in the passing game.  Running the ball will always be the priority for this team, and the tight ends on this roster will likely reflect that. This leads me to believe that Egnew is perhaps an unlikely selection for the Seahawks.

If Egnew is hanging around in the sixth round, Seattle might figure “what the hell” and take him, but my instinct tells me that if Seattle does draft a tight end, it will probably be a guy who is well above average at both blocking and receiving.  This is not to say that I dislike Egnew, much less that I think you should.  John Carlson was a great pickup by Seattle back in 2008.  Egnew has a chance to be a tremendous mid-round value.  I would celebrate an Egnew selection any time after the 3rd round. Its just that I have a hunch this front office could be looking a different direction at tight end instead.

Expected draft trajectory:  Rounds 3-5.

Posted by Kip Earlywine

The last couple months, we’ve talked quite a lot about pass rushers.  Especially Courtney Upshaw.  We’ve spent a lot of time covering quarterbacks, linebackers and running backs too.

So today I figured I’d take a short break from all that and share a great article that someone pointed out to me regarding Arkansas wide receiver Greg Childs:

One player who might provide some inspiration for Williams is Arkansas wide receiver Greg Childs. Before suffering a patella tendon injury in November, the 6’3″, 219-pound wide out was among the best skill position prospects to play in Fayetteville in the past decade. A healthy Childs possessed hints of Chris Henry’s untapped athleticism. Whispers of Andre Johnson’s inside-out, physical style. Echoes of Randy Moss’ deep prowess.

His game made my colleague Cecil Lammey exclaim, Child Pu-lease!

Childs returned to the team after surgery and wasn’t even sporting a brace. However, he wasn’t the same player. I watched him against LSU this year and he looked like he might as well have been running in a pool.

But this spring the rehab finally did its magic and Childs’ Pro Day workout was a revelation:

• 4.41 – 40-yard dash
• 4.18 – 20-yard shuttle
• 6.73 – Three-Cone Drill
• 40.5″- Vertical

Many observers believe Childs looks like the player he was before his career near-death. If you didn’t see Childs before his injury, here’s a glimpse.

I don’t know if Seattle plans on drafting a receiver this year; we already have eight on the roster and the team will only keep six next September.  That said, Childs does seem like the kind of low cost / high reward reclamation project this front office has been fond of in the past.  Though he had a different career path, Doug Baldwin was also a good college receiver who’s stock was impacted by injuries.  Seattle obviously benefited from taking a chance on Baldwin.  Seattle took a similar gamble on Walter Thurmond the year before that and has seen promising returns with that pick as well.  The Leon Washington trade is yet another example.

Sometimes you show up to watch one player and end up noticing someone else in the process.  I remember scouting Ryan Mallett last year and discovered Knile Davis.  Greg Childs caught my eye as well to a lesser extent.. I’m kind of surprised that I completely forgot about him until I read this article.  Childs may not have had a good 2011 season due to injury, but its true that he was a force in 2010.  Below I’ve provided a couple of compilation videos from Childs’ 2010 season.

Written by Kip Earlywine

(Be sure to check out Rob’s review of Ronnell Lewis if you haven’t already.)

Seattle has been pretty up front about their goals this offseason.  Namely, they want to improve the pass rush and add speed at linebacker.  Two-thirds of Seattle’s linebacker corps are currently free agents who may not return.  Seattle wants to “get faster” at linebacker after all, and it would be hard to do that starting the same trio as last year.  This is where a player like Shea McClellin could be particularly intriguing to Seattle, but before I talk about him, I think its important to discuss Seattle’s options.  Thankfully, there are many.

We are almost a full week into 2012’s NFL free agency period, and only one single high profile linebacker has signed with a team (Steven Tulloch), which was literally announced right as I began writing this.  This speaks to just how greatly the NFL has devalued 4-3 linebackers.  David Hawthorne, Leroy Hill, and Curtis Lofton are all still available as of this writing.  Pete Carroll chimed in the other day with his own theory for the lack of earnest pursuit:

“There are close to 12 draftables with good grades which hurts vets looking for deals”

While things could still happen in free agency (with the Matt Flynn and Zach Miller signings being evidence that anything can happen at any time), you can’t help but wonder if Seattle isn’t planning to shun free agency and instead add not one but multiple linebackers in the draft.  This may especially be true if Seattle signs Michael Bush, which would narrow down their draft priorities considerably.

Rob and I have highlighted a couple of obvious speedy linebacker options like Zach Brown and Mychal Kendricks.  We’ll continue to dig through the draft and try to identify as many of Carroll’s twelve as we can over the next month or so.  Today, I’ll start with a dark horse 4-3 linebacker candidate who’s versatility could be very interesting to Seattle: Boise State’s defensive end Shea McClellin.

McClellin starred at defensive end for Boise State, but many draft sites now list him as an outside linebacker.  An explanation might be found in Rob Rang’s post senior bowl observations:

“McClellin accepted the invitation to the Senior Bowl, anticipating he would remain at [defensive end] but perhaps see some time at linebacker. Instead, he has worked almost exclusively at linebacker, taking virtually every snap Wednesday on the weak side and proving his versatility and draft grade are perhaps significantly underrated.

McClellin showed off his potential at his new position early on, demonstrating surprisingly quick feet and balance during bag drills. More important, he made some of the more impressive plays of the day during scrimmages.

Proving much more comfortable than expected considering his lack of experience at the position, McClellin showed good diagnosis skills, quickly attacking gaps in the running game. He took on blocks aggressively, using his long, strong arms to quickly disengage as well as the flexibility and awareness to keep his feet free from the mass of humanity surrounding him near the line of scrimmage. Though not allowed to take ball carriers to the ground during practice, McClellin closed quickly and wrapped up securely before releasing them to finish their runs.

As impressive as McClellin was defending the run, it was his surprising agility and awareness in coverage that caught some by surprise.”

McClellin’s natural ability at linebacker caught many by surprise, but further investigation reveals that maybe it shouldn’t have.  Boise State was known to use McClellin in a versatile manner during his time there, and wouldn’t you know it, McClellin played linebacker in High School.

Its not every day you see a defensive end impress scouts as a weak side coverage linebacker.  McClellin’s combine numbers further added to the intrigue.  Rob Rang once again:

“[McClellin’s] workout certainly showed off the straight-line speed (4.63) and change-of-direction skills (7.07 seconds in the three-cone drills) to handle this conversion. McClellin’s speed, in fact, would have ranked him fourth among the 29 linebackers tested at the Combine — and this is after measuring in at 6-3, 260 pounds.”

Having scouted him in a couple of games, I’m personally not the biggest fan of McClellin as a pure defensive end.  He looked average in most ways but made up for it with a high motor and relentless pursuit.  He was a great football player with questionable tools to star at defensive end at the next level- he reminded me a bit of Grant Wistrom.  If drafted purely as a defensive end, I’d probably give him a 4th round grade.

But if McClellin’s Senior Bowl performance and Combine numbers are to believed, he’d be one of the fastest linebackers in the draft after Brown and Kendricks leave the board.  He’d also have the versatility to lineup at defensive end of course.  That could score McClellin bonus points for our front office, as they are looking for players that have versatility. Our defense could use the flexibility in game situations where defensive substitutions are impossible (hurry up offense, etc).  We’ve already seen some evidence of this as Seattle signed Jason Jones for his ability to handle looks at both defensive tackle and defensive end.  If Seattle could get a speedy linebacker who can put a hand in the dirt too, that would be close to a best case scenario, even moreso if for some reason Seattle does not select a pass rusher in round one.

I don’t know how Seattle grades the linebackers, but it would not completely shock me if they have McClellin even higher than a guy like Mychal Kendricks.  Kedricks is a very good player with a ton of speed, but McClellin is bigger and faster than KJ Wright, looks natural at the WILL spot, and comes with impressive pass rush versatility.  McClellin’s stock is rising, and he’s certainly worth keeping an eye on as the draft nears the 43rd pick.  As one NFL scout said when talking to Rang:  “Don’t write too much about the guy, we’ve been on him all year long and don’t want others jumping on him now.”

Wouldn't this have been something...

Written by Kip Earlywine

Nearly forty eight hours have now passed and dozens of NFL free agents have signed with new (and old) teams.  Its premature to opine with any kind of free agency grade, but enough has happened to this point to begin an earnest evaluation.

A couple things to keep in mind, I do not evaluate the front office strictly by results, but rather intentions and philosophy.  Paul Allen supposedly offered Peyton Manning a ton of upfront cash, and yet Manning hardly did so much as return Seattle’s phone call.  Some things are simply out of John Schneider’s control, which is why I prefer to look at the thought process rather than the bottom line.

Once again, Seattle was not front in center when the gun sounded in free agency.  This is hardly surprising given that even in a big spending offseason like 2011 Seattle sat out the first day, signing Sidney Rice on day two and Zach Miller on day five.  Its a cool-headed approach often seen by the elites of the league, the Pittsburgh’s, the Green Bay’s, etc.  I had personally hoped that Seattle would charge hard after Curtis Lofton, Eric Winston, and Jason Jones.  Seattle has yet to show interest in Winston, although for what it’s worth, Seattle’s interest in Zach Miller last year was not immediately evident either.

Lofton’s free agent status is a bit of a riddle.  Early in free agency, infamous twitter user Incarcerated Bob incorrectly announced that Lofton was a done deal in Tampa, and later that same day, Gerald McCoy tweeted in a manner which suggested that Lofton was a done deal in Philly.  Lofton has yet to officially sign anywhere.  Now apparently the Seahawks have some interest in Lofton as well.  Lofton is a similar player to David Hawthorne, slightly more accomplished and a year younger, but both are run stopping middle linebackers who struggle in coverage.  The market is moving very slowly at linebacker, and Lofton continues to look the part of the bridesmaid while his pursuers instead throw big money at other free agents.  If he can be signed for a non-ridiculous contract, Seattle could become more serious in their pursuit.

Seattle is hosting defensive tackle Jason Jones today and tomorrow.  It appears that Jones’ decision could come down to Seattle and St. Louis.  The fact that Jones visited St. Louis first and left town without a contract is promising.  The Rams new head coach is none other than Jeff Fisher, so there is an obvious connection there. The fact that the Rams didn’t pull out all the stops to sign Jones before Seattle might hint at two possibilities.  The first is that their interest could potentially be more about driving up the price for the Seahawks.  The second is that Jeff Fisher’s familiarity with Jones flaws could dampen his enthusiasm and lead to a lukewarm contract offer, similar to Seattle’s lukewarm stance on Matt Hasselbeck last year or John Carlson this year.

Jones is a player Seattle could really make good use of, and I feel pretty good about his chances of signing here.  Jones is still young, but I doubt he’d want to play for a team that might not compete until he nears his 30th birthday and has a bit of a mess at defensive coordinator (their current DC is none other than Gregg “Bounty-gate” Williams).  Seattle can offer a better chance to win sooner than later and doesn’t have the distractions on defense the Rams will have to deal with.

Something I’ve noticed about this current front office is that they hate bidding wars (unless it’s done to hurt a division rival).  Sidney Rice, as talented as he is, was deemed too risky by most of the league.  His services came down to a two team race between Seattle and Minnesota.  Zach Miller was receiving surprisingly little interest when Seattle swooped in and stole him away from the Raiders.  Seattle didn’t have to fight off a ton of suitors for Tarvaris Jackson, Ben Hamilton, or even Robert Gallery, much less guys like Brandon Browner and Mike Williams.  In short, Seattle is the kind of team that hunts for value in free agency, and the more fierce the competition, the higher the price will go, making that player less likely to be a value acquisition.

That’s why I really liked Seattle’s pursuit of Brandon Carr and their current interest in one Steve Hutchinson.

Brandon Carr ranked in the top 10 last year in completion percentage against and passer rating against, just below Richard Sherman on both counts.  For as productive as Brandon Browner was last season, he struggled badly in those areas.  Signing Carr would have been a bit like adding another Richard Sherman to this roster while making Browner one of the league’s best #3 corners.  Unfortunately, Dallas panicked and gave Carr a five year, $50 million contract before he could ever come here.  Even if Carr had declined the offer and paid the Seahawks a visit, any hope of making him a value signing went out the window.  It’s just as well that he signed elsewhere.

Steve Hutchinson would be a neat get.  It would go a ways toward healing what was in the minds of many Seahawks fans the most painful free agency loss in franchise history.  Pro Football Focus ranked Hutchinson the fourth best left guard this past season, despite the fact that Minnesota’s line as a whole was among the league’s worst.  Yet for a team that is clearly in rebuilding mode, paying a 34 year old guard $7 million is hard to swallow.  Age is the last form of sanctioned discrimination in the workplace, and its no more evident in pro sports than anywhere else.  Despite Hutchinson’s terrific career and remaining capabilities, he’s only yet drawn interest from two teams, the Seahawks and the Titans.  It would be pretty ironic if Hutch signed in Tennessee, as the head honcho there is none other Mike Reinfeldt, the same man who planted the idea in Tim Ruskell’s mind that guards were not worth top money.  Hutch makes some sense for the Seahawks, as both Moffitt and Carpenter could be slow returning from injuries and a 1-2 year stopgap option in the interior could buy Seattle’s young offensive lineman a chance to rest and acclimate to the league before being thrown into the fire again.  Of course, as I write this, Hutch signs in Tennessee, hahahaha.

Seattle is meeting with Matt Flynn tomorrow.  I wouldn’t have bothered with Flynn at all personally.  Even his statistically insane game against the Lions last year screamed “product of the system” when viewed under close scrutiny.  Still, I’ll give Seattle some credit- they didn’t show any interest in Flynn until his value was established as being much lower than people expected, and on the off chance that Flynn is willing to take a Tarvaris Jackson sized deal, he’s not a bad gamble.  It seems unlikely he’d come that cheap, but Seattle loses nothing by attempting to find out.

Of course, not everything in free agency has been peachy so far.  Seattle has yet to sign any free agent from another team, much less a superstar like Manning or Williams.

I can only speculate, but I’m not convinced Seattle was as desperate for Manning as they would like you to believe.  I think there was some interest there, because obviously, he’s Peyton freaking Manning, but Manning would have been a deviation from the long term plan Seattle has in place.  It wouldn’t have been the kind of slam dunk many fans think it would have been.  Not that I think Seattle has anything against Manning, but if they signed him to a something like a 5 year, $100 million contract, it would have cap implications down the road when Seattle wants to extend their own star players such as Russell Okung and Earl Thomas.  It would also make a big acquisition or trade for a young franchise QB (Matt Barkley) in future drafts more complicated, as evidenced by Manning’s reaction to Indy coveting Andrew Luck.

Still, I respect the front office for at least trying, and I respect them more for having the awareness to play politics.  Had Seattle not even batted an eye at Manning, Williams, and Flynn, the fanbase would likely be in an uproar.  Its no accident that John Schneider has said over and over that he won’t panic at quarterback- its because he’s massaging the fanbase in preparation for what will probably be an unpopular (but ultimately wise) approach to the 2012 draft.   Schneider is not oblivious to the desires of Seahawks fans, but he has a plan and he’s sticking to it.

Regarding the Red Bryant signing, like many fans, I have mixed feelings about it.  Bryant’s value comes from his run stopping and leadership, both of which are difficult to accurately measure in terms of value.  Yet even from a gut-thinking perspective, it doesn’t feel that Bryant was in any way worth $7 million per season.  Seattle overpaid, but unfortunately they had to- as Bryant drew significant interest from 3-4 teams and teams with 4-3 hybrid defenses like ours.  I was actually kind of warming up to the idea of letting Bryant go, as we could have spent that money on another good player and moved Alan Branch to the 5 tech spot for next season, then possibly make a run at Calais Campell in 2013.  Campbell had 8 sacks last year playing a very similar role to Red Bryant.  He’s a guy who would be an absolute beast for our defense.

On the positive side, Bryant’s deal pays him all of his guaranteed money in the first two years, which gives Seattle an easy out by 2014 should things not work out as hoped.  It also makes Bryant a likely target for restructure from 2014-2016.  In other words, Bryant’s contract merely continues the Red Bryant experiment rather than making it a permanent fixture.  Continuing this experiment could make a good deal of sense, as Bryant would be useful for a team showing 3-4 hybrid looks, which could easily be the case if Seattle drafts either Melvin Ingram or Courtney Upshaw.  If Bryant can stay healthy, this contract probably won’t matter too much either way in the long run.

Perhaps the most controversial move made so far in Seattle’s free agency is the surprise release of Robert Gallery.  Pete Carroll has stubbornly insisted on running the football since coming here, and until Robert Gallery returned to near 100% health near the mid point of the season, that goal seemed to be painfully misguided.  Gallery struggled with pass protection and with penalties, but his run blocking is the real thing.  It even rubbed off a bit on Max Unger (a free agent next year- by the way), and the two became a power blocking duo that Marshawn Lynch and the team as a whole benefited enormously from.  Even high school level coaches review game film, so I’m sure Pete and John know fully well what they are doing here, but I have serious reservations about this move personally.  Seattle is not hard up against the cap, and for a team that is built around running the ball, Robert Gallery’s impact on the running game easily justified his salary this year, in my view.  I just don’t get it.  Even the timing was pretty lousy, as fellow veteran Steve Hutchinson was in town talking contracts when it happened.  Think Hutch felt good about signing a two or three year deal here after seeing that?

And am I the only one who finds it suspicious that Seattle signed back Paul McQuistan and released Robert Gallery at the same time?  That would certainly seem to hint at the team making room for McQuistan as a starter on the line.  McQuistan played surprisingly well late last season, but I think I’d feel better about him as a great backup rather than as a fringe starter.  This combination of moves would also seem to hint at the team considering James Carpenter at guard with Breno Giacomini being the favorite at right tackle.  An Okung-Carpenter-Unger-McQuistan-Giacomini line isn’t bad, but where is the depth?  Can Carpenter provide the same kind of run blocking prowess that Gallery provided last year?  Why did we need to free up $4.667 million (the savings from releasing Gallery) again?  Other than a small buyout cost, there was no reason to release him now for the sake of 2013’s cap room either.  Overall, the whole thing reminds me a bit of the TJ Houshmandzadeh release a couple years ago.  The team didn’t save a dime by releasing Housh, but the move did free up opportunities for other players.  The Housh release worked out well enough.  But will the Gallery release be similarly harmless?  I guess we’ll see, but color me skeptical.

So what could be on the horizon?  Jason Jones will probably reach a decision this weekend.  It’d be nice if it was to play for us.  Kamerion Wimbley is all but guaranteed to be released by Oakland on Saturday.  Given the kind of crazy contracts that are being handed out in this free agency, it might not be a bad idea for Seattle to float a 7th rounder to Oakland for Wimbley’s contract (which would have the added perk of not counting against us when compensatory picks are handed out next year).  Sure, it’s a big contract, but it probably won’t be any bigger than what he’d get on the open market as the best pass rusher available, and this way they could ensure Wimbley’s services.  Wimbley is a diverse player who could fill Seattle’s needs as a speedy linebacker or line up in the LEO role as Chris Clemon’s short term successor (Wimbley is two years younger).  Wimbley has gone on record saying that he’d be open to a contract restructure.  This probably won’t happen, but it probably should.  If Wimbley hits free agency, I’m certainly hoping the Seahawks are at least involved for his services.

Written by Kip Earlywine

Last week Rob reported that Seattle had a quarterback deal in place with a mystery Manning suitor.  We honestly have no idea which team that is, but after talking this over with Rob, I figured now would be a good time to discuss some possibilities as Manning’s search for a team draws near a close.  Please do not confuse this for breaking news or further insider info.  It isn’t.  It is purely speculation.

Don’t confuse it for an endorsement either.

The Denver Post let it be known today that Manning will not make a visit the to the Pacific Northwest, which is kind of like when a hot chick rejects your brave advances with an obvious made up excuse.  She’s saying “no” without saying no, and you have to at least give her credit for being nice and indirect about it.  For all intents and purposes, our dreams of seeing Manning in a Seahawks uniform next season died today.  Of course, the Seahawks are once again acting the part of the socially inept nerdy kid- doubling down on their overtures to Manning rather than take a hint.  The Seahawks insist that Manning hasn’t ruled them out.  Of course, (per Adam Schefter) Manning’s camp “isn’t interested at this point.”  Hey Seahawks, did you ever think she’s just not that into you?

Whether you want to hold out hope for Manning or not is up to you.  For now, I think we should revisit the potential trade Rob previously talked about.  Its been said that 12 NFL teams contacted Manning this week, including a few that already had good starting quarterbacks and wanted their interest to remain anonymous.  Its very possible that the deal struck by Seattle was with one of those teams.  It certainly is fun to think about scenarios like Matt Schaub, Tony Romo, Jay Cutler and Josh Freeman.

But what if it wasn’t one of those anonymous teams?  What if that deal was with the Broncos: the current “front-runners” in the Manning sweepstakes?  It would be consistent with what we were told: that the deal was not with a team that had been linked to Manning at the time (we were first told of the trade over a month ago).  If Denver gets Manning, it would give John Elway a nice exit strategy from the Tim Tebow drama he inherited.  While a case could be made that Tebow could develop for a few years behind Manning as the starter, its equally possible that Elway is just looking for a golden opportunity to escape his “Tebow problem” without looking like a villain in the process.  Acquiring Manning would certainly allow him to do that.

The other major player for Manning is thought to be Arizona.  If the thought of Peyton Manning throwing passes to Larry Fitzgerald for the next three or four years doesn’t make you shudder, then you probably have an unhealthy desire for Seattle to draft high for a franchise quarterback.

In the event that Manning does choose Arizona, the Cardinals will have to make a decision with current “starter” Kevin Kolb.  The Cardinals are $16.4 million over the cap at the moment, which means they could hardly afford to sign Manning, bring in Reggie Wayne, and keep Kolb and his large contract.  Kolb is due a $7 million roster bonus on the 17th.  If the Cardinals land Manning, they would need to trade Kolb or release him by that date.  While I wouldn’t expect Arizona to trade Kolb in the division, they could be desperate to unload him.  Seattle expressed a degree of interest in Kolb last year, though its not clear to what extent.  And obviously, if Kolb is outright released, it would be surprising if Seattle didn’t pursue him.

While my opinion of Kolb isn’t nearly as high as it was a year ago, I think I’d personally rather have Kevin Kolb than Kirk Cousins, and Kolb potentially wouldn’t cost us the draft pick.  Both Kolb and Cousins seem to be allergic to throwing deep, but at least Kolb has experience and some scheme friendliness (Andy Reid quarterback) on his side.  Depending on the cost involved, Kolb to Seattle could make some sense.

What if Denver signs Manning?  That’s where things get interesting.  Seattle twice passed on Tebow in 2010, but that’s hardly much evidence of rebuke given the difference between Tebow’s draft stock and Seattle’s lofty draft position.  Would Seattle entertain the idea of bringing Tebow in?  Tebow is an incredibly flawed quarterback, but its almost scary how well he fits John Schneider’s quarterback criteria.  Is he a tough “football player” at quarterback?  Check.  Is he big and mobile?  Check.  Does he “tilt the field his way” and fuel the team with his leadership?  Uh, yeah.  Tebow is a punchline, but his leadership ability is legendary.  Check.

I’m not sure how I’d react to a Tebow acquisition.  I think I’d be in favor of it, since I’d be assuming the deal was dirt cheap and would have zero impact on the team’s search for a long term franchise quarterback.  Tebow isn’t good, but there’s no denying he’s fun.  Kind of like the Pete Carroll Seahawks, come to think of it.

Finally, its been brought up elsewhere as a bit of an “out there” possibility, but what if the Jacksonville Jaguars became suitors for Tebow in a Manning-Denver scenario?  Tebow is a Jacksonville native who went on to be a legend at Florida.  He’s the ultimate hometown hero in a city with a professional football franchise struggling to sell tickets.  Two years ago, Rob regularly mocked Tebow to the Jaguars early in the first round for this exact reason.  Instead of shocking the NFL with a titanic Tim Tebow reach, the Jags opted to shock the NFL with a titanic Tyson Alualu reach instead.  Its funny the way things work out sometimes.

New Jacksonville Jaguars owner Shao Khan Shad Khan is an ambitious and charismatic person that seems willing to do almost anything to get butts in the seats in Jacksonville.  Tim Tebow may not be a stellar quarterback, but he wins games and brings excitement.  Blaine Gabbert is more talented and more invested, but after an NFL worst -825 DYAR rookie season, it wouldn’t be beyond imagining that Jacksonville could consider Tebow.  To put that number in perspective, infamous flameout Jimmy Clausen posted a -609 DYAR in 2010.

If Jacksonville acquired Tebow, they’d need to concoct an exit strategy for Gabbert.  According to our inside source which revealed Seattle’s quarterback draft board last year, Blaine Gabbert was Seattle’s #1 quarterback in the 2011 draft.  That three team wheel of interest could easily lead to a multi-team team trade with Tebow heading to Jacksonville, Gabbert heading to Seattle, and draft picks heading to Denver and Jacksonville.  Of course, Gabbert’s wretched 2011 performance could have changed minds.  But if the Seahawks believe that Gabbert could succeed within their offense, a trade could make a great deal of sense.  At least from their perspective.

Whether you like these quarterback possibilities or find the mere thought of any of them in a Seahawk uniform sends you into frantic, screaming sprint into the mountains, the next couple days certainly won’t lack for intrigue.  Regardless of what happens, I’d really like to see Manning in Denver.  For a lot of reasons.  The potential Tebow media madness would be fun, and anything that keeps Manning out of Arizona would be welcome as well.