Author: Kip Earlywine (Page 6 of 13)

Some may think this is too early, but I believe that Seattle’s decisions making the final 53 man roster tell us a lot about the plan moving forward.  Remember, this front office thinks things through well in advance.  I’m sure they’ve already begun their planning for the 2013 offseason, and I have my reasons for believing that they were planning for certain parts of the 2013 offseason even before the 2012 draft.  We don’t know what that plan is with absolute certainty, but bearing that in mind, here are my best guesses as to where Seattle’s 2013 draft priorities are at this time:

Early rounds:

Pass rushing Defensive End:

Chris Clemons will be under contract in 2013, but he also turns 32 during the 2013 season. Even if Irvin took over at the LEO and Clemons became the new Raheem Brock, you’d still need a long term replacement for Clemons, and pass rushers typically need some time to develop, especially if you don’t have access to very high draft picks.

Bruce Irvin- even if he is successful immediately- is probably not ideal as an every down player. In addition to his size and run defense issues, it’s also worth noting that Irvin models his game a lot like a fireballing relief pitcher. Because relief pitchers don’t have as high a workload, they don’t have to pace themselves, and they can throw several MPH harder. Irvin plays with a maximum effort level, and is a terrific “hustle” player. He tends to win through pure exertion, not technique. When the team gave Irvin very large rep totals in the preseason, he was always gassed by the end of the game, and it showed in his effort and results.

Ideally, you’d like to keep Irvin as a specialist and look elsewhere for your new LEO.  It’s not that Irvin is totally incapable of being the future at the LEO spot, I just think that he’s going to have more value as a specialist.  In baseball, starters are worth a lot more than relievers, but it’s not like the Yankees were in a hurry to throw Mariano Rivera in the rotation when he broke on the scene back in the 90s.  Similarly, I think the Seahawks are in the business of putting players where they play the best football, and I think that role long term will be the Raheem Brock role for Irvin.

Either way, Seattle will need to find another pass rusher who can produce fairly quickly.  Seattle doesn’t have a ton of money to spend in free agency next year, and what money they do have could end up being spent elsewhere (more on that later), so finding value somewhere early in the draft could be a priority.  Drafting starters is one of the best ways to improve an area of the team without spending much cash.

Wide Receiver:

I actually like our receiver group. It teems with upside. It’s also full of risk- but that risk is offset somewhat by it’s depth.

However, if Sidney Rice does not produce or does not stay healthy, receiver could be an area Seattle targets next offseason in order to make Rice’s contract expendable. Drafting a receiver early would give the front office the ammunition they need to approach Rice about a paycut, because most paycut proposals do not end happily and the front office would need to be prepared for life without Rice before they attempt a restructure.

Even if Seattle’s receivers perform very well in 2012- a distinct possibility- it could still be a consideration early just because if Seattle is picking late in the first round, receivers like Robert Woods and Marquess Wilson could represent the best value available on the board.

Tight End:

Similar to receiver, our tight end group is pretty talented, but is headlined by an expensive player that hasn’t yet played up to his contract. Sidney Rice and Zach Miller have been quality contributors, but they have easily the two least efficient contracts on the team. Miller might have the very worst contract on the team, but what’s even harder to stomach is thinking about how this offense would function without Miller on it. McCoy is talented but still working on his consistency. Moore is a fringe roster player with his 3rd NFL team. Even if Moore is a pleasant surprise this year, he will probably remain a third tight end. As much as Seattle would like to get out of Miller’s contract, they really shouldn’t do it until either Miller gets much worse or they have an obvious high level replacement in mind.

If an obvious value pick materializes at tight end early in the draft, I think Seattle would have to at least consider it.

Mid Rounds:

Linebacker:

Seattle’s linebackers are arguably the “weakest” area on the team, but that is more a statement of how loaded this team is across the roster. This preseason, you could be forgiven if you thought KJ Wright was a 3-4 defensive end, that’s how physical he’s been at enforcing the edge.  It’s been amazing to watch. Wright is kinda “meh” at everything else, but really, this is what Seattle is paying him to do: contain the sweep and force tackles for loss. And it’s exactly what he’s done.

Bobby Wagner is pretty much the definition of a “glue” linebacker. He’ll overtake Alan Branch as the most difficult to notice contributor on the team. Don’t expect Wagner to make the Pro-Bowl any time soon, and if he does it will only be because Seattle’s defense is unbelievably good, allowing him to get in by reputation. He won’t get in by stats.

Hill will be Seattle’s WILL linebacker again this season, and I’m sure he’ll be a quality contributor, but I think this is Hill’s last season here, most likely. I think Seattle is eyeballing a playmaker for that weakside spot- and that playmaker does not currently reside on this roster. He may in fact reside on our practice squad. Korey Toomer flashed very exciting ability as a pass rusher. Allen Bradford looked raw, but showed very fast field speed and was around the ball often in the final preseason game. He can also lay a big hit.

But for as much as I like Seattle’s penny-pincher options here, NFL teams are waiting longer and longer to draft very good 4-3 linebackers. Much like running backs, you can find excellent value at linebacker in the mid rounds of almost every draft. If Seattle has a high rated linebacker fall into their lap in rounds three or four, it would make a lot of sense to jump on that opportunity.

Seattle is looking for a weakside linebacker with speed, but given how they value versatility, don’t be surprised if they draft a guy who’s got the natural ability to play all three linebacker spots. This could be why they passed on Lavonte David last year, despite his outstanding college tape, as David may have been too undersized to man the middle or strong side.

One technique Defensive Tackle:

Seattle has excellent depth at the three technique, but still strikes me as being a little questionable at depth beyond Brandon Mebane at the one. Alan Branch could probably hold the role just fine, but I doubt he’d do it as well as Mebane. Branch might also depart as a free agent next offseason. Branch has been pretty good, but he hasn’t been terribly cheap, at $4 million per season. That’s a lot to pay a potential backup.

I wouldn’t put defensive tackle down as a “need,” but it is an area that could use quality depth, and it’s really hard to find starting caliber run stuffers after the first few rounds. Every team is looking for those kinds of players, and they tend to be fairly rare. If a value reaches them at this area in the mid rounds, it could be a strong consideration. If Seattle lets Branch walk in free agency, that could be a major tell that they will pursue a defensive tackle somewhere in the draft.

Offensive Tackle:

Seattle has two quality starters, and even one good backup if you consider McQuistan to be such. However, compared to how strong the rest of this roster is, offensive tackle stands out as a relative concern. Even if Okung plays every game this season, he still profiles as an injury risk. McQuistan is currently starting and would create a domino effect if used as a reserve. We’ve seen what Tom Cable has done developing talent in the interior of the O-line: he’s been phenomenal. However, we have zero backup players being developed at tackle right now, and I think that will change next offseason. I think Seattle will go shopping for a tackle to develop, and I think they will probably grab that player in the mid rounds as the middle rounds are well known for producing quality tackle prospects.

If Carpenter succeeds at left guard this season, it’s conceivable that Seattle could move McQuistan to be a backup tackle long term. If that happens, then this priority might get pushed into the later rounds.

Late Rounds:

Quarterback:

I’d almost guarantee you that Seattle drafts a QB next year. First, Seattle will want to bring in competition for Josh Portis for the third string job. Second, Matt Flynn could very well be traded. I have a hunch that Flynn will be traded in 2014, but if a team (like say, the Raiders) is desperate enough, we might see Flynn get moved next offseason. Third, Schneider has talked about adding a quarterback every year, which is actually what he’s been doing. In 2010, he added Whitehurst. In 2011, he added Jackson and Portis. In 2012, he added Flynn and Wilson. That’s almost a two quarterbacks per year on average- it’s just easy to miss since only one of them was a draft pick.

And more importantly, one of the next two drafts is going to be amazing for quarterbacks. If every top quarterback declared for the 2013 draft instead of going back to school, you might see seven or more of them get drafted in the top two rounds next year. Green Bay drafted Brian Brohm with a second round pick after he slid in 2006. They did that a year after selecting Aaron Rodgers in the first. If a guy like Geno Smith or Landry Jones slides in the draft, don’t be shocked if Seattle goes quarterback a little early, maybe even as high as the mid to late second round. I don’t expect Seattle to do this, but value is value. I doubt it will happen that way, my point is that it could happen, so be prepared. Rob and I have it on good authority that quarterback was initially Seattle’s top priority for 2013 before Wilson and Flynn happened this past offseason (John Schneider tends to plan at least a year ahead). That speaks to how highly this front office thought of the 2013 quarterback class, and rightly so.

More likely, I think Seattle will draft a quarterback in the later rounds, mainly due to the excellence of Russell Wilson and the promise Matt Flynn showed in the preseason.

I am an admirer of the Packers and Eagles, who just seem to crank out quality quarterbacks at an impressive rate even from modest resources.  Seattle’s quarterback philosophy has the process of Green Bay and the style of Philadelphia. Wouldn’t it be funny if those two “profanity laced” calls John Schneider received after he drafted Russell Wilson were from war rooms in Green Bay and Philly? I have my suspicions.

Anyway, Seattle already has as many as ten draft picks in the 2013 draft, most of them coming after the 3rd round. I expect that one of those later picks will be quarterback. The one player I am hoping for is Aaron Murray from Georgia. I’m assuming that he’ll return for his senior season in 2013, but if he doesn’t, he has an excellent chance to be this year’s Chandler Harnish- a quarterback with high round talent that falls hard in the draft thanks to his 6’1″ height. Keith Price is another, but I very strongly doubt he’ll declare this year.

Defensive back:

Expect this to be an annual tradition. There was a lot to like about Jeremy Lane, but though he is not small, he still seems undersized for the kind of physical system Seattle runs and is hardly precocious in pass coverage. Byron Maxwell has the physicality down and has flashed pass defense ability, but for now he is nothing more than a special teams player. More competition is needed. As they say, you can never have too many good corners.

Seattle is loaded at strong safety but has no real answer in the event that Earl Thomas goes down. Chris Maragos is the presumed backup at free safety, but he simply can’t provide what Thomas brings to this defense through speed. Taking another Mark Legree type late round swing-for-the-fences gamble would be advisable. It would not shock me if Seattle grabbed a fast safety in the mid rounds if a talent falls.

Pass rusher:

Seattle is always looking to add pass rushers, and so far, they’ve done so mainly from late round picks, undrafted free agency, waiver-wire moves, and trades. Bruce Irvin was the exception last year, but for the most part, Seattle has built it’s pass rush off of creativity and spare parts. Even if Seattle drafts a defensive end fairly early to be the heir to Chris Clemons, they may still grab a pass rusher very late. It’s kind of like buying a lottery ticket, with the idea that the harder you work at scouting, and the more chances you take, the luckier you get.

Return Specialist:

Thirty is a dreaded number for any NFL player, especially running backs.  Of course, Leon Washington is a very young thirty and has looked ageless. It would not shock me at all if Washington was still here in his age 31 and 32 seasons. Maybe even beyond that. He’s that good.

That said, kick return specialists- even excellent ones such as Chris Rainey last year- tend to be late round picks. Leon Washington makes a combined $6 million over his 2013 ($2.5m) and 2014 ($3.5m) seasons, which could make him a target as a cap casualty. At the very least, we should expect to see the front office bring in someone that can realistically compete with Washington for return duties (I don’t think it will be Tate- he’s so high risk and so inconsistent, and Carroll prefers safety and consistency). If that doesn’t happen in 2013, it will be soon after.

Positions I don’t expect to be drafted:

Guard, center, fullback, running back, punter, kicker, strong safety, 3-tech defensive tackle (unless they clean house in free agency to save money), 5-tech defensive end.  Barring unusual injury circumstances, of course.

Prediction for Seattle’s 2013 first round pick:

Those of you who followed this year’s draft very closely may recall John Schneider saying something very strange. Paraphrasing: He just didn’t like the 2012 class of receivers very much, and the implication was that he never really expected to draft one. This is a bit odd for two reasons:

Number one:   It was actually a pretty good year for receivers. A higher than usual number of receivers went in the first two rounds. At Mockingthedraft.com, draftniks from fanbases across the league participated in a pre-draft poll which asked which offensive position was the deepest in the 2012 draft. The “wide receiver” option won in a landslide. Rob had a piece on this blog calling 2012 “year of the receiver,” and he wasn’t wrong to think so.

Number two:  Seattle needed help at receiver! As much as I defend our receivers, Mike Williams had a down year (and was hurt), Rice had failed to stay healthy for the second year in a row, Doug Baldwin impressed but carried high risk of being an over-achiever, and Golden Tate was still a mixed bag. Almost every draftnik that followed the Seahawks from anything less than a backpocket distance had Seattle down for a receiver or guard in round one last year (that wasn’t us, we knew Seattle was going pass rusher in the first, but the point was that most fans perceived receiver as a major need for Seattle.  Many still do.).

Obviously, John Schneider is not a moron. So how do you explain those comments? Here’s how: he had his eye on someone else. Someone in 2013.

Last year was the year of the big receiver. Consider Justin Blackmon (6’1″), Michael Floyd (6’3″), Brian Quick (6’3″), Stephen Hill (6’4″), Alshon Jeffery (6’4″), Reuben Randle (6’4″), Mohamed Sanu (6’2″)… all of them but Sanu (3rd) went in the first two rounds. That is a murderer’s row of big receiver prospects.

Seattle loves big receivers, but I think they viewed that aspect of the team as being set. They had Sidney Rice, and still believed in both Mike Williams and Kris Durham. From their vantage point, they didn’t need another big man on the outside. They didn’t need another underneath guy either (Baldwin, Tate, possibly Butler). What did they need? This:

or maybe, this:

Some people say that Mike Wallace is a “one trick pony.” Even if they are right, Wallace is an elite talent at it. That one thing Wallace is amazing at just happens to perfectly fit that which is most sorely missing from Seattle’s offense. What’s exciting is that many who are following the Wallace situation closely strongly suspect that he will be a unrestricted free agent in 2013 (translation: Pittsburgh will not franchise and will just take the compensatory pick).

I really like Mike Wallace. Wallace is a fast, savvy, explosive deep threat. He’s so impressive with his fundamentals, to me he’s worth it even as a relatively one dimensional player because he might be the best in that one area in the entire league, and it just so happens to be the area that Seattle most needs to upgrade in their offense. A lot of teams won’t be willing to sink significant money into a player like that, but Seattle could be.

Seattle is a bit tight on money next year (especially when considering the members of secondary they’ll want to lock up early).  That said, Seattle’s biggest 2013 free agents have already been signed ahead of time, so making a push for Wallace in free agency is conceivable, especially if the team restructures or parts ways with Sidney Rice. I suspect that Seattle’s frantic efforts to free 2012 cap space for a 2013 rollover could be in part based around a plan to make a push for Mike Wallace.

Wallace is not popular with everyone though. I’d go so far as to say that he’s almost “cool to hate” across the league, and that could make him a candidate for a less than meteoric free agent event. It’s not like teams have been banging down the Steelers’ door trying to trade for Wallace over the last couple months, either. John Schneider gravitates towards free agents who receive less attention than they deserve, and if Wallace wallows in free agency even a little bit, that will play into Seattle’s hands all the more.

But if that doesn’t happen, Seattle has some good deep threat options that should be realistic in the first round. Chief among them is Marquess Wilson. Wilson is 6’4″ with very long arms and a freakish ability to high point jump balls. He’s been clocked in the late 4.4’s, which isn’t elite fast, but plenty fast enough. To be sure, Wilson is a different kind of deep threat to the ultra fast Mike Wallace, but he’s a potentially elite deep threat all the same. His ability to use his height and jump ball ability borders on indefensible at times.

Like Wallace, I think Marquess Wilson is probably going to be a relatively one dimensional player in the NFL. However, for what Seattle needs, that is not a problem. We’ve already seen how this front office and coaching staff has shown much love for specialists brought in to serve one purpose based on one elite strength.

You combine that kind of deep threat with a potentially outstanding young quarterback who’s at his best when throwing the jump ball down the sideline and it could explode the offense into elite territory.  Who knows, maybe our offense could even rival our defense in a year’s time.

In 2011, the top priority was offensive line.
In 2012, the top priority was pass rush.
In 2013, I think that top priority will be adding a deep threat to stretch the field.

If we don’t add Mike Wallace in free agency, I expect Marquess Wilson to be high on this front office’s draft wish list.

As I watched Wilson’s masterful performance against the Chiefs, I was reminded of how Wilson finds success by doing all the little things. On a protection breakdown, Wilson was flushed up the middle of the pocket. Leon Washington realized things were getting ugly and hustled into the flat on the right to serve as a safety valve. Wilson made the decision to run. Eric Berry stood in Wilson’s way, probably serving the Chiefs “spy” role on that play. Berry was there to stop Wilson from running. Wilson made a subtle move in Washington’s direction, then made a quick and deceptive fake shovel pass. Berry bit on it so hard that it turned him around completely, only to find out seconds later what had really happened. Wilson ran untouched for over 30 yards before gracefully jogging out of bounds.

It was that little “flick” that Wilson did. That little in the moment thing he did was the difference between five yards and thirty plus. When I scouted Wilson before the draft, what really blew me away was how well he did all those little things. His pump fakes were hard, fast, slingy and deceptive- the kind a DB almost has to bite on. I haven’t been watching football terribly long, but they were the nicest pump fakes I’ve seen. His play action could often fool not just linebackers, but cameramen as well. Brett Favre had that patented ability to make weird, ugly plays on the fly that worked. Wilson has that same ability, but even his “sandlot” plays look polished and oddly professional.

Origins

When Ichiro was just beginning his pro career in Japan, he discovered an unconventional swing. In Japan there is a saying: “the nail that stands out gets hammered down.” Ichiro faced intense pressure from hitting coaches and management to alter his swing to a more conventional one. Ichiro was 18 years old, and his then manager, Shozo Doi, was adamant that Ichiro reform his swing and even mockingly called it “the pendulum.” Ichiro didn’t relent, and in his professional debut, hit a home run off of (legendary over there) pitcher Hideo Nomo. Doi didn’t care, and demoted Ichiro back to the minors that same night. Eventually though, Ichiro’s results became hard to ignore, and he would go on to earn three straight MVP awards in Japan while essentially performing like his nation’s equivalent of Ted Williams.

Ichiro would later face further skepticism when he opted to hop the pond for the Majors. At the time, there was a major stigma in the States against Japanese position players. Some pitchers had found success in the majors but no hitter had ever made the leap and played at an all-star level. This perception was exacerbated by washed up or failed major leaguers signing in Japan and posting monster seasons. Thus, when Ichiro hit the posting system, there was a collective yawn across the major leagues. Seattle ended up posting the highest bid, a measly $13 million sum for one of the best pure hitters in Japan’s history.

Russell Wilson was told that he was too short pretty much from the very beginning. Despite being a star high school QB, he was only a two star recruit. The team that did sign Wilson, NC State, was holding a five man open competition at QB. Wilson, a true freshman, would beat out some heavily favored candidates and win the starting job outright. He’d have a very strong college career, culminating with the best statistical season in Division I history in 2011 for Wisconsin. It was a season in which his Badgers might have made the championship game if not for just a couple of freak plays.

Then the NFL draft rolled around, and almost everybody said he was too short. Amongst a sea of doubters, Jon Gruden stood as the voice of reason. He had only briefly known Wilson from his FFCA taping, but you could tell an impression had been forged. He stumped for Wilson with all the bias and passion of a proud father. Wilson’s talent deserved a top pick, but his height was a different story. Wilson would fall to the mid-third round pick. Shortly before his selection, the topic of Wilson came up, prompting Gruden to make his now legendary rant against Mel Kiper Jr. The frustration was evident on Gruden’s face. He knew as well right then as we know now that Wilson had been hosed out of millions of dollars, and a degree of opportunity, all for a form of discrimination that was both unfair and undeserved.

Thankfully, John Schneider was part of John Gruden’s Russell Wilson fanclub. He knew how good Wilson was, but also knew that something is only worth what people will pay or it. The Mariners won Ichiro because they knew something was there, but didn’t need to bet the farm to get him. The Seahawks did the same, by riding the line and grabbing Wilson at the latest possible spot they realistically could have in the third round.

Ichiro is a likely, if not slam dunk Hall of Famer. His unconventional swing worked just as well in the Majors as it did everywhere else. Clearly, if MLB GMs had anticipated this, there is no way that a team would have won his services for a meager $13 million bid. With the cat out of the bag, Japanese stars that followed Ichiro would earn two or even three times the posting fees for their Japanese teams, even though none of them would have the impact Ichiro did. In the same way, NFL GMs will soon look at Russell Wilson with that same air of draft day regret- wondering how they allowed themselves to pass on the Tom Brady they could have seen coming.

The catalyst

When Ichiro joined the Mariners in 2001, the team was coming off a surprise playoff run, but had just lost one of the most talented free agents in team, if not league history, when superstar Alex Rodriguez bolted to Texas for a record quarter billion dollar contract. The Mariners were a balanced team, with few stars but quality throughout. It was the blueprint of Pat Gillick, who subscribed to a “Honda Civics” style of roster construction, opting for cheap, quality veterans at every spot instead of just a few superstars on the same budget. There were some in the media who believed that the Mariners could be a good team, maybe even a wildcard. What none could anticipate was the historic 116 win season the Mariners were on the verge of.

Unlike football, baseball is not a game that can easily turn it’s fortunes on just one player. Value is spread throughout a starting roster pretty equally. An all glove shortstop could help you just as much as a no defense slugging outfielder. Even the best players in the league are only worth about 8 to 10 wins on their own. Statistically, Ichiro was “only” worth 7.6 wins that first season. But he, along with a surprise year from Brett Boone, created an atmosphere that infected the clubhouse and allowed that team to play way above their talent level, leading to a historic season. Ichiro didn’t just win Rookie of the Year, he won MVP. There were better performers that season, most especially Jason Giambi (worth 9.3 wins while playing for the 2nd best team in the Majors). But what Giambi lacked was that igniting factor that Ichiro brought. The energy and excitement Ichiro brought to the city of Seattle and the national storyline he created was what made that season truly special. Everything about Ichiro and that team, it was one of the most stunning developments in recent baseball memory.

Russell Wilson walked onto Wisconsin’s campus last year an outsider with some fanfare but undefined expectations. A few months later, he left as the unquestioned greatest quarterback in Wisconsin Badger’s history. He didn’t just play well, he elevated the team around him. John Schneider might say he “tilted the field.”

Wilson is not yet a superstar in the NFL. Yet I say the following with the certainty of Yoda: He will be. Give it a month or two. But even if Wilson flops horribly for some reason, he’ll still have fans falling over each other for his autograph in Madison, Wisconsin; Raleigh, North Carolina; and even in Richmond, Virginia, Wilson’s hometown. Everywhere Wilson goes, he turns doubters into believers, and he doesn’t take long to forge converts.

Before Wilson made his presence known, the Seahawks were by no means a bad football team. Many a savvy pundit had the Seahawks pegged as a darkhorse candidate in the NFC West, if not a strong candidate for a wildcard berth. But now that Wilson has proven his game can translate, it’s a whole new ballgame. The slingshot effect of going from Tarvaris Jackson and his struggles in the same areas where Wilson is strongest could be enormous and should not be taken lightly. Similar to Gillick’s “Honda Civics” type franchise model, this is a team with good to great talent at almost every position on the field, with a quarterback who has a chance to shock the world while energizing and elevating all those quality players around him. If I was a fan of any other NFL team with championship aspirations and I was paying attention, I’d be very worried about these Seattle Seahawks.

The little things

Ichiro wasn’t just a savvy hitter. He was also a savvy base runner and a polished, effortless defender. He could lay a clutch bunt with the best of them, and sometimes he’d even avoid the out. He played with a complete lack of nerves. Everthing was just a routine to Ichiro. Every day, he just followed that same process, almost like he was running off an internally programmed algorithm. Ichiro might as well have been a robot. Despite that robotic demeanor and taciturn tendencies, Ichiro knew how to charm. He gave legendary profanity laced pregame speeches in the All-star games he attended, every single one of which was won by his American League team. He once said that if he wanted to play a game in Cleveland he’d have to punch himself in the face because he’d be lying. And he just knew how to be cool in pretty much every corny Mariners commercial he was cast in.

Wilson is that same kind of cool cat. Wilson’s focus and consistency brings a new meaning to the phrase “living in the now.” He is never thinking about what might be happening if he misses this next pass, or thinking about the previous pass that wasn’t his best. He has that single minded focus of just making the play he has in the moment the best play he can make, and allows for nothing else.

Wilson is not a conventional charmer. You’d have to search long and far to find a press conference with more canned cliches. In improvisational situations, he lacks the quick wit of a Matt Hasselbeck or the Andre Benjamin styled cool weirdness of RG3. Yet he does have his moments. Like saying “Go Hawks” at the end of an interview, or at that cold killer look in his eyes when in the moment. I think he loves Jesus too much for the profanity laced pep talks though.

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I’m pretty sure I’m not the first person to realize this connection. I’m pretty sure I saw someone else make the “icon” comparison a few days ago. It wasn’t until just before I wrote this that the full weight of the comparison really sank in for me. Ichiro was so much more than an icon. He was a hero to his fanbase. There is an emotional connection to Ichiro that just doesn’t really exist even with any of the Mariners other superstars. Fans loved Edgar, Junior, and Randy, but Ichiro took star fandom to a different level.

With Wilson, I’m seeing the same thing. Everywhere he goes, he forges and immediate and unmistakable emotional connection to everyone he comes in contact with. A connection that goes beyond respect. It reminds me of how at Gettysburg the confederate soldiers begged Robert E. Lee to rescind his retreat order. Their cause may have been misguided, but their devotion and belief in their general was unshakable, to the point of laying down their lives without hesitation.  That same kind of aura follows Wilson everywhere he goes.

There was a classic moment on Seinfeld where Jerry talks about how we don’t root for the players- we root for the laundry they are wearing. It’s so true. I mean, just look at the fan reaction to Braylon Edwards before and after he signed here. Or to Mike Williams before and after he was cut. We like our players, but we like winning more.

But some players, they transcend that and actually establish that rare sense of emotional endearment to the fanbase. A good example of this was Matt Hasselbeck, who still had many passionate supporters even after struggling for three seasons. Even those who wanted to move on from Hasselbeck still remember the good times and will miss the man off the field.

Ichiro was one of those rare players that was much more than an icon. The word “fan” is rooted from the word “fanatic,” and everywhere Wilson has gone, he’s transformed skeptics into fans and fans into fanatics. You can already see it. He’s doing it again. Soon, Wilson will be an icon. And soon after that, he’ll be more than an icon. For a long time to come.

You can feel Russell Wilson’s legend building. You can feel Pete Carroll’s NFL legend building. Like the sensation of being swept out to sea, there is a sense of power and force at work that is beyond our ability to control or even fully understand. We already knew something special was happening in Seattle after seeing how the Seahawks closed out last season. Now we’ve seen that catalyst moment. Some may say “it’s only the preseason,” but the Seattle Seahawks and Russell Wilson are the talk of the NFL right now. I suspect many of you will not remember another Seahawks’ preseason game like you’ll remember this game tonight.

Wilson has just one final test- doing it in a “real” game.

Of course, you know he will pass it.

He played against a real starting defense tonight, and an above average defense at that, on the road, in a place that is one the most intimidating places to play in the league. The Chiefs had the 12th best defense last season by weighted DVOA. They were shorthanded in the secondary, but actually played outstanding coverage anyway (and got away with way more contact than they should have). Wilson had just one drive that did not end in points, and it was a missed field goal that didn’t miss by much. For the preseason an almost unbelievable 67% of Wilson’s drives have resulted in scores, most of them touchdowns. No other preseason Seahawks QB this year has even led a touchdown drive.

I don’t even want to entertain thoughts of Wilson not starting at Arizona or for the majority of games over the next decade. It does not take a ton of insight to see the path Wilson has ahead of him. Greatness. Carroll may act coy, but we all know the Russell Wilson era in Seattle has begun. Doing anything else would make a mockery of his “earn everything” mantra. Even Matt Flynn knows that this competition is over.

What an amazing time to be a Seahawk fan. This team isn’t yet complete, but it already feels like the 90’s Cowboys. Seattle’s starters flat out embarrassed the Chiefs starters. By the time Kansas City cracked 15 yards of total offense, they were already down 16-0. And not because of turnovers or 80 yard lightning-in-a-bottle plays, but by pure, honest, truly dominant football.

I have never been this happy to be rooting for this team. Not even after the Saints playoff game. Not even after the 2005 superbowl berth. As someone that believed Russell Wilson to be the next Brees/Brady type draft steal months before he was drafted, the process of seeing him get surprisingly drafted by my team, then beat the odds to be in the position he is in right now, it’s so storybook that even Hollywood execs are probably watching this story unfold with interest. Especially if Wilson and the Seahawks have the kind of season I believe they are capable of. And the kind of decade I believe they are capable of.

I just can’t believe this is really happening. This is happening… to a Seattle sports team!

Regarding Wilson’s performance, I would have been excited by any good performance tonight, but the way that Wilson played went above and beyond as to leave no doubt. He pretty much destroyed the Chiefs, posting an astronomically high ANYA (adjusted net yards per attempt: think of it as a “smarter” passer rating) of 10.95, which is almost twice as high as Wilson’s debut against the Titans. For comparison, Matt Flynn’s historic 6 TD game against Detroit had a ANYA score of 11.06. If it felt like Wilson was really good tonight, he might have been even better than you thought.

Some people have called Aaron Rodgers a “robot” for how effortlessly great he is. Tonight Wilson, a rookie, was that same kind of robot. Even his post game interview was stone cold serious and devoid of emotion- when you know that any of us would be flipping out like we just had the Publishers Clearing House Sweepstakes van pull up our driveway. He did end his interview with “go hawks” though. Even robots can be cool cats.

There is much more to say, but this is all I will say for now. This is history in the making, my fellow twelves. Soak it up. Enjoy it. Remember it well.

There is so much to like about Russell Wilson.  He’s accurate.  He’s smart.  He’s a fast learner.  He’s very athletic and elusive.  He plays his best on crucial downs and in the 4th quarter.  His confidence, mental toughness, and leadership ability is within spitting distance of Tebow territory, but unlike Tim Tebow, Russell Wilson can actually throw the football, and throw it quite well.  Metaphorical character and interview meters were shattered when he sat down with NFL coaches and general managers.  Jon Gruden- infamous for being tough on young quarterbacks- stumped for Wilson with all the bias and passion of a proud father.  Gruden had only met with Wilson for one day.

To say that I personally am a fan of the Wilson selection would be an understatement.  I think that Drew Brees was more of a pioneer than an exception to the rule, and that Russell Wilson is latest of a very rare breed of quarterback to come down the pipeline.  However, unchecked optimism has a way of biting people in the ass, so I think it’s of crucial importance to analyze Wilson with the same degree of critical attention that I would give anyone else.  Then again, finding faults in Wilson’s game is no easy task.  Wilson grades out between good to great in just about every category other than height.  As such, digging into his flaws has taken more effort and closer attention to detail.

Last week, I looked into the claim that Wilson’s accuracy dips in the pocket.  My conclusion from studying three games downplayed that concern while raising another: that being his tendency to overthrow when going intermediate and deep.  Today I’ll cover a handful of other critical observations that I was able to come up with.

The Wisconsin effect.

At NC State, Russell Wilson had a career 135.5 passer rating, a 57.8% completion rate, 7.2 yards per attempt, and a 76/26 TD/INT ratio.  He also averaged 120 rushing attempts per season.  Those are Jake Locker type numbers almost across the board, if a bit better.  I guess that’s fitting, as both quarterbacks flashed talent but lacked much of a supporting cast.

Wilson went to Wisconsin in 2011 and all he did was have the best statistical season in Division I history:  a 191.8 passer rating, a 72.8% completion rate, 10.3 yards per attempt, and a 33/4 TD/INT ratio.  How much of that performance was Wilson taking a step forward, and how much of that performance was Wilson capitalizing on an environment that was conducive to putting up huge numbers?  Wisconsin has a recent history of statistically strong quarterbacks who did nothing in the NFL.  Scott Tolzien being the most recent example.  Tolzien posted a very similar stat line for Wisconsin in 2010:  a 165.9 passer rating, a 72.9% completion rate, 9.2 yards per attempt, and a 16/6 TD/INT ratio.

To be sure, Wilson is probably not as good a quarterback as his Wisconsin numbers would suggest, but the draft status of Wilson’s predecessors is ultimately irrelevant.  Quarterbacks are not drafted purely on their stats.  They are drafted for the qualities they possess.  I’ve scouted Tolzien.  He was a good quarterback.  He checks reads well, he makes smart decisions, he’s an accurate passer, and he can even hustle for a first down with his legs on occasion.  He didn’t go undrafted because Wisconsin elevated his statistics.  He went undrafted because he was an average athlete with a below average arm- a guy who stood 6’2″ and tipped the scales at just over 200 pounds.  But more importantly than any of those things, Tolzien had sloppy throwing mechanics and terrible footwork.  He was Robert Griffin without all the incredible natural gifts.  Players like that tend to go undrafted no matter how good their natural abilities may be.

Other than size, Wilson is vastly superior to Tolzien in every way, which I think says a lot since Tolzien really was a pretty good college quarterback.  Wisconsin is a great offense for a quarterback to play for, but what it isn’t is a gimmick based offense.  Tolzien and Wilson earned every bit of their 72% completion rates.  They took most of their snaps under center, they threw to all areas of the field, and they routinely progressed through multiple reads before finding and targeting an open receiver.   It wasn’t a case like Oregon or Baylor where their scheme was designed to exploit college level athletes.  It wasn’t an offense like TCU or Arizona that lives off of one-read plays or bubble screens.  It wasn’t an offense that spread defenses out with constant four or five receiver sets like Oklahoma.  Wisconsin’s is a legit offense that requires quality quarterback play to succeed.

Wisconsin has had some solid weapons the last couple years, but nothing great.  Lance Kendricks was a 2nd round tight end (who left for the NFL before Wilson arrived).  Nick Toon was a 4th round receiver.  Jared Abbrederis will probably be a mid round receiver in a future draft.  Both Toon and Abbrederis saw their production shoot through the roof when Wilson replaced Tolzien in 2011.

What Wisconsin does have is a pretty good offensive line and a phenomenal running game.  That helps sell the play action and keeps the quarterback’s pass attempt totals low and increasingly opportunistic.  Part of the reason Keith Price was so productive in 2011 for the Washington Huskies was because he completely bought into the philosophy of using the pass to set up the run.  It’s essentially the same idea at Wisconsin, but with a stronger foundation in place.  Did a good offensive line and strong running game boost Russell Wilson?  Absolutely.  But the exact same thing could be said for Andrew Luck and Matt Barkley.  Put Wilson on USC or Stanford last year and you would probably see similar production.

The bottom line is that Wilson will not produce in the NFL like he did at Wisconsin, just like Andrew Luck won’t produce for the Colts quite like he did for the Cardinal.  The real Russell Wilson is probably somewhere between his NC State and Wisconsin performances.  Where he fits on that spectrum is anyone’s guess, but I tend to lean towards the Wisconsin side, if only because the Seahawks philosophy of building around the run and the offensive line is very similar to what the Badgers did, even if the literal playbook verbage more closely resembles NC State.

Pocket paranoia?

Overall I would grade Wilson’s pocket presence and elusiveness as well above average, though there are moments when he seems to react to pressure a bit earlier than he needs to.  Wilson has no love for the pocket and almost seems to be forcing himself to stay between the tackles against his personal wishes at times.  Wilson also has a habit of escaping out of the back door instead of stepping into the pocket.  Wilson usually makes it work, but it’s the kind of habit that will backfire into drive killing 20 yard sacks in the NFL on occasion.

Forget about snap throws and three step drops.

Russell Wilson requires two things to overcome his height disadvantage:  time and distance.  He needs time because linemen begin every play clustered together but spread apart as the play develops.  This is where throwing windows come from, and they don’t really exist in the first second or two of a play.  Wilson needs distance because distance helps him see over the line and gives him more options for navigating through his throwing windows.  A quick pass or short dropback affords Wilson neither of those things, so it shouldn’t be surprising that Wilson took about as many quick passes last season as Darron Thomas had snaps under center.

Thankfully, the Seahawks run an offense that utilizes developing routes, play action, and bootlegs- much like Wisconsin’s offense did.  As such, I don’t see this as being much of a sacrifice, so long as Seattle’s pass protection can avoid embarrassing themselves.  And if the second half of last season is any indication, things will probably hold up just fine.

Final thoughts:

We all know what Wilson does well at.  It’s finding out what he doesn’t do well that has required all the work.  Height is a flaw, but it is just one flaw among many that a quarterback could have.  Then again, maybe a word like “flaw” is the wrong word to use.  Perhaps “quirk” might work better.  I say that because Wilson is not a flawed quarterback but a unique one.

People tend to fear things they don’t understand, and that goes double for NFL general managers.  Fear and lack of understanding was the real reason that Drew Brees was not a first round pick, and it’s the same reason why Russell Wilson was not selected in the first two rounds.  A handful of teams had the insight to see past Wilson’s faux height problem, and the Seahawks won the lottery for his services by committing on him the earliest.  Wilson’s name was called at the 75th pick, and in a couple of war rooms somewhere two other general managers snapped the pencil they were holding in half when they heard it.  There is a reason why Pete Carroll and John Schneider reacted the way they did when making that pick.  They knew.  After the draft they talked about how it would have hurt to walk out of this draft without Irvin and Wilson.  From what we’ve learned since the draft, it sounds like a few other teams felt that way too.

Wilson will never post a 33/4 TD/INT ratio in the NFL or complete 72% of his passes.  He might find it harder to run from trouble.  He’ll have limitations on his game and will require a coach that is willing to work around them.  Luckily for Wilson, he’s going to exactly the right kind of team, the kind of team that doesn’t need him to post MVP numbers to win championships.  He’s going to the kind of team that can protect him and support him with the running game like Wisconsin did.  He’s going to the kind of team that doesn’t live off of quick plays.  But most importantly, he’s going to a team coached by Pete Carroll, who more than just about any coach lives by the philosophy of putting unique talents in position to succeed and building an offense with the idea of making life as easy as possible for the quarterback instead of asking for a messianic franchise quarterback to lean on.

Russell Wilson is in a really good situation, which means we are too as Seahawks fans.  Mel Kiper is right.  If Wilson can’t make this work, then maybe no quarterback under six feet can.

I scouted Russell Wilson before I included him in my “Quarterbacks of interest” series in late 2011.  Typically when I scout a player I cover the basics (arm strength, mobility, style of offense, intangibles, etc)  without delving ultra deep.  I came away from my initial scouting experience of Wilson with a remarkably positive impression.  I thought Wilson had the best tape of any quarterback in this draft.  That said- if the players with the best tape always made for the best professional athletes, then teams would never draft busts nor spend millions on their scouting departments.  That’s why it’s critical to determine whether a player’s skills will project to the next level or not.  After breaking down Wilson twice, I am completely convinced that height will not effect him almost at all in the NFL.

However, there have been a handful of other concerns for Wilson, which I think are fair game.  Today, I’m going to break down the common assertion that Wilson’s accuracy “dips” when taking throws in the pocket.  For this exercise, I used the three compilations available on Youtube:  Ohio State, Michigan State, and Michigan State again in the Big 10 championship game.

@ Michigan State

One of the things that jumped out at me while charting all three of these games was how many of Wilson’s passes were attempted from the pocket.  Granted, the definition is a bit nebulous as Wilson moves around so much.  I generally considered the play to be a pocket pass if it was designed as such and thrown in an area that was intentional grounding eligible.  I excluded bootlegs or scrambles that took Wilson clearly outside the tackles.  For a guy that is so athletic and so short, I was surprised to see that Wisconsin didn’t move him outside the pocket more often.

Wilson threw 21 passes in this game.  16 of them were thrown from the pocket.  Wilson went 10/16 in the pocket and 4/5 outside the pocket.

Of those six pocket incompletions, two were intercepted.  The first interception was actually receiver Nick Toon’s fault for failing to look for the ball and adjust his route accordingly.  The second interception was a desperation deep throw across Wilson’s body that was slightly overthrown.  Had he been throwing to Sidney Rice, it probably would have been caught for a huge gain, but unfortunately for Wilson, his target didn’t quite have enough juice in the tank to reach it, and a converging defensive back swooped in for a sideline pick.  This was still arguably a poor decision for Wilson, and it was also an over-thrown ball.  Had it been throw a tiny bit less, he would have had a huge completion instead of a pick.  These would be the only two interceptions Wilson would throw in any of the three games.

Of the four remaining incompletions, one was a perfect deep ball that his receiver dropped.  Another was a hot read that led his target too much.  It wasn’t a great pass, but it’s the kind that should have been caught just the same.  Wilson’s two remaining incompletions were over-throws, including one that blew a sure touchdown.

Wilson also had an incompletion that didn’t count because it was ruled intentional grounding for a safety.

Wilson finished 10/16 in the pocket, good for a 62.5% completion rate.  He was 4/5 outside the pocket, good for 80%.  If you give Wilson credit for the two balls his receivers dropped, his pocket number increases to 75%.

Misc notes:

Wilson did not have a single throwaway in this game.  He hates to give up on plays and will almost always make something happen.

Wilson’s high completion numbers are even more impressive when you consider that he throws deep very often.  Wilson made plenty of mistakes in this game, and faced a very tough defense that barely gave him time to throw, and yet he still finished with over 10 yards per attempt.

Wilson’s big hands help him out a lot.  Wilson has a terrific pump fake because he can grip the ball so well.  He also has a nifty quick shovel pass and therefore effective fake shovel pass move.

Wilson isn’t as great a rusher as his combine speed would make you think, but he can buy time in the pocket like few quarterbacks can, while keeping his eyes (deep) downfield at all times.

Play action and bootlegs work well for Wilson’s skill set.  Bootlegs have an obvious benefit: they get him outside the pocket and they take advantage of his speed to buy time.  The play action also benefits Wilson because the act of turning around and running to the fake handoff has the added effect of dropping Wilson deeper into the pocket in less time than a normal dropback would.

Wilson had an awesome run for a TD in this game that was sprung by a perfect pump fake on the run to freeze an enclosing defender.  Wilson’s hard sell on his pump fake is one of his biggest weapons.

@ Ohio State

Another tough defense on the road.  Wilson took a fair number of sacks in this game as Ohio State has a very athletic defensive line.

Wilson threw 32 passes in this game, and only 4 of them were attempted outside the pocket despite all the pressure Ohio State brought all game long.

Wilson went 17/28 (61%) in the pocket and 3/4 (75%) outside of it.

Four of Wilson’s eleven pocket incompletions were throwaways forced by pressure or coverage.  Another was a drop where the receiver took a hit and couldn’t hold on.  Wilson also had an incompletion where he was hit as he threw.  More than half of Wilson’s pocket incompletons in this game had zero to do with his accuracy.  Most of Wilson’s remaining incompletions were over-throws on mid-to-deep pass attempts.  Take those six “excusable” incompletions out of the data set, and Wilson would have finished 17/22 in the pocket, a rate of 77%.

Michigan State (Big 10 championship game)

Wilson went 16/22 (73%) from inside the pocket and 1/2 (50%) outside the pocket in this game.

Wilson’s receivers really came through for him in this game, making several tough catches including a crucial catch on 4th and 6 late in the game.  They didn’t drop a single pass either.

Wilson also erased one of his potential incompletions when he caught his own pass after it was batted back to him.  Wilson is one of the few quarterbacks who is electric enough as a runner to actually make it worth catching his own pass, although sadly he lost two yards on the play.

Misc notes:

Wilson has a snappy fast shovel pass.  At one point early in the game a pass rusher came off the edge unblocked and Wilson froze the guy with a fake shovel pass then ran around him.  It was awesome.  Later Wilson scored with an actual shovel pass near the goal line after sucking in the defense by showing intent to run the ball outside.

Wilson caught a pass from his running back for a big gain.  NFL defenses will have to account for Wilson even when the ball isn’t in his hands.

Conclusion:

Wilson doesn’t really have a pocket accuracy problem.  He does have a bit of a deep ball over-throw issue, and Wilson throws a lot of deep passes.  Because Wilson typically throws deep from within the pocket, his overall accuracy completion numbers dip as a result.  As for the reason why Wilson is good for a handful of overthrows a game, I’m not exactly sure of the reason, but I suspect it’s because he doesn’t step into his deep throws when making them from the pocket very often, instead relying on pure arm strength and overcompensating as a result.

Written by Kip Earlywine

Regardless of whether the Seahawks actually had a great draft or not, I found this year’s draft to be one of the most rewarding that I’ve ever followed.  Bruce Irvin and Russell Wilson were my two favorite players in the whole draft, and I had no expectation that either would become Seahawks.  So seeing Seattle draft them, even if it was earlier than people like Mel Kiper expected, was pretty neat.  Robert Turbin was another player I’ve really liked for a while now.  In all my years of following the draft, this was the first one where I felt like the front office’s wavelength on their favorite players matched my own.

I also thought it was really neat that Seattle drafted both Bobby Wagner and Robert Turbin (purely by coincidence).  The two had a special relationship at Utah State as the two big stars on a small school team.  Now the experience of leaving home for the big scary NFL will be made easier by having a friend close by.

In the previous two drafts combined, the Seahawks drafted one player that I covered pre-draft.  This year, each of their first four picks were guys I had scouted and written reports on, and two others (Toomer and Lane) were names I mentioned here on the blog in the last couple days.  I even included Korey Toomer at #9 on my top 10 linebackers (from the front office’s perspective) list. I was watching the draft with some family members, and I actually called three Seahawks picks seconds before they happened (Wagner in round two, Turbin in round four, and Toomer in round five), while guessing the correct positions in round one and with both of our sixths.  I’m not saying that to brag, but only to say that it feels really awesome to guess so many things right.  It’s more fun to follow the draft when you feel like you have your finger on the pulse of it.

There were a few sad parts of this draft though.  Dwight Jones was one of my favorite receivers in the draft, and he not only went undrafted, but as of this writing he has yet to sign with a team as a UDFA.  He’ll get signed eventually, (maybe he’s holding out for money?), but he’s a guy I would have spent a day three pick on in a heartbeat and he may not even get much of a chance in the NFL.  Chris Polk also went undrafted despite being arguably the best running back in modern Washington Huskies history (alongside guys like 1st rounder Napolean Kaufman and 2nd rounder Corey Dillon).

Polk signed immediately with Philadelphia (a good fit), but still, it was heartbreaking to see that.  There are two things that can damage draft stock like no other- major character risks and degenerative injuries.  Polk was a fringe first round talent that fell completely out of the draft because of reports that his shoulder was degenerative (which he denies).  Polk started 38 straight games for Washington (and produced) despite whatever issues he had.  I feel terrible for the guy.  Most players that go undrafted expect to before hand, or are at least prepared for it.  Polk should have been a 4th or 5th round pick at worst, so this couldn’t have been easy.  Like a bride getting stood up at the altar, what should have been the greatest day of his life becomes his most painful memory instead.  Godspeed Chris.

I loved the fact that this year’s “Mr. Irrelevant” was Chandler Harnish.  They may have to change the name of that distinction if Harnish has the kind of career ahead of him that I think he could have.  Too bad he’ll be stuck behind Andrew Luck, at least for the time being.

Blah, blah, blah, what about Seattle’s picks? Oh yeah, sorry about that.

Robert Turbin is a guy I covered in my draft spotlight series.  Though I did not say so in print, he was one of those players (like Bobby Wagner) who I had a sneaking suspicion would be a very likely candidate for Seattle.  I guesstimated Turbin to be the 6th highest running back on Seattle’s board, and even said that “it honestly wouldn’t blow me away if Seattle took Turbin at #43.”  Turbin is a near clone of Marshawn Lynch.  The two have similar size, similar speed, similar styles, similar attitude, and similar strength.  Turbin calls himself “the Hulk” for his physical style of play.  This is a great pick for Seattle.  Turbin can provide injury insurance for Lynch in the short term while having strong potential to replace Lynch in the long term.  If Seattle had passed on Russell Wilson at #75, there is a decent chance they may have taken Turbin there, given Lamar Miller’s injury related uncertainty.  So getting Turbin in the 4th as running back options were drying up has to feel pretty good for John Schneider and company.

Jaye Howard is a penetrating 300 pound pass rushing DT from Florida.  As you may recall, the defensive coordinator for Florida is none other than Dan Quinn, who did a very good job identifying and developing defensive line talent when with the Seahawks the last several years.  As with Josh Portis, we’ve seen that coaching connections can have an impact on players getting brought in, and I think it’s distinctly possible that Quinn made the hard sell to Carroll for Howard’s NFL prospects.  Getting the assumed Dan Quinn seal of approval is enough to make me optimistic about this pick.  I’ll have a scouting report on Howard up this week some time, but the short version is that he’s athletic and has great arm use, but looks a bit lazy and struggles badly against the run.  That said, his upside if motivated could be another Rocky Bernard.

Korey Toomer was maybe my favorite pick of day three, in that I highlighted him early this week as a cheaper alternative to Zach Brown.  Despite not being listed by a lot of draft sites, Toomer drew strong interest from NFL teams due to his rare size and athleticism.  I thought I made it pretty clear that I wasn’t a fan of Zach Brown, but I came to terms with it because Brown was a terrific physical specimen and Carroll has a strong track record of developing talent.  I wasn’t looking forward to Seattle spending a 2nd round pick on Brown, but I was prepared to accept it.  Seattle passed on Brown and then instead opted to take a very similar player in Toomer three rounds later.  In terms of measurables, Toomer is 95% the specimen that Brown is, but he comes at a tiny fraction of the cost.  Great pick by the Seahawks.

I don’t think Toomer is going to be handed a starting job, but given how much Pete has preached speed at linebacker, and the fact that as of this moment Leroy Hill is still our starting weak side player, I have to believe that Seattle drafted Toomer with more than special teams in mind.  Between Allen Bradford, Malcolm Smith, and Korey Toomer, we’ll have three weak side linebacker prospects with above average speed competing to replace Leroy Hill in the future.  Hill is a good player and coming off his best season in years, and he’s hardly slow, but he doesn’t possess the same kind of speed those three do.  The Seahawks have done incredibly well with their competition mantra thus far, and I’m really looking forward to the competition for the distinction of becoming Seattle’s future WILL linebacker.  EDIT:  Per Pete Carroll in his day three press conference, the Seahawks will start by giving Toomer looks at SAM.  Toomer believes he can play at all three spots.

Jeremy Lane was a player I listed yesterday as a guy to watch on day three.  As I said then, I had a feeling that Seattle would add some more late round defensive backs this year as it was hinted at in the pickup basketball game rumor.  Seattle also spent more than a quarter of their team invites on defensive backs, which was also a pretty big clue.  Jeremy Lane was one of five defensive backs invited by the Seahawks.  I don’t have a personal opinion on Lane yet, but I did stumble across a well written report on him.

Lane has good size (6’0″, 190 pounds at combine), solid speed (4.53/4.48 forty), and has a rare combination of long arms (32.16″) and a high vertical (39.50″).  Only 6 out of 53 corners at the combine had longer arms, and only 2 out of 53 corners had a higher vertical jump.  John Schneider has often talked about how he values long arms as an asset in coverage.  Lane is tall, he jumps very high, and he has very long arms.  Quarterbacks are going to hate having to throw over the top of him.  Oh yeah, Lane played press corner, and is good at jamming receivers at the line.  Of all the picks on day two, I think Lane has the best chance to be this year’s Kam Chancellor or Richard Sherman.  Which I guess is fitting since he just missed the fifth round by only two picks.

Winston Guy is a hard hitting strong safety that has drawn some comparisons to Kam Chancellor.  Guy was injured and ran a slow forty at the combine, but healed up and posted a 4.53 at his pro day.  Guy is 6’1″, 213 pounds, with very long 33″ arms and a solid 36″ vertical.  Seattle now has two quality depth options at strong safety (Jeron Johnson being the other).  Guy will make a contribution on special teams immediately, and could see the field in extra DB packages.  EDIT:  Carroll said that Guy will take over for the role that Atari Bigby filled last year.

JR Sweezy is a Mansfield Wrotto type pick, having played defensive tackle in college but is now being moved to guard as a project.  Wrotto didn’t work out of the Seahawks, and Sweezy probably won’t either, but he does have some intriguing qualities.  Sweezy posted a 36″ vertical jump, tied for second among all defensive linemen.  His vertical jump would be first among all offensive linemen.  Obviously, linemen don’t need much in the way of leaping ability, especially on the offensive side, but vertical jump ability tends to correlate well with explosiveness, which would hint at Sweezy being a potentially explosive run blocker.  At least one scouting report I read referred to Sweezy as having “sneaky athleticism.”  Sweezy also has long 34″ arms, which is a nice plus.  He fits the Tom Cable mold as having a high height to weight ratio.

Greg Scruggs will compete to be depth at the 5-tech position behind Red Bryant.  Scruggs stands 6’3″ and weighs 284 pounds, with monstrous 35.5″ arms.  His arms are only a half inch shorter than Russell Okung’s.  Scruggs also posted a 4.76 forty time, which is pretty solid for a 284 pound player.  Scruggs wasn’t very productive in college.  At first blush, this pick feels like EJ Wilson with freakishly long arms, but I’ll reserve judgement until we get to see him in preseason action.  EDIT:  Scruggs will play 3-tech in some nickle formations.

If there is one thing that stands out from this group, it’s that John Schneider clearly has a thing for long arms.  Robert Turbin was the only pick in the whole draft that didn’t have above average arm length.  The same was true on day one.  Bruce Irvin has decently long arms.  Bobby Wagner had some of the longest arms among inside linebackers.  Even Russell Wilson has decent arm length for his height.

To me the most surprising thing about Seattle’s 2012 draft (other than the Irvin and Wilson picks) was that Seattle had ten picks, yet didn’t draft a single Pac-12 player.  Pete Carroll has gone on record saying that 2012 would probably be his last year where his insider knowledge of the Pac-12 would work to his advantage, so I was pretty surprised to see them completely avoid the conference.  Then again, they may very well have drafted Mychal Kendricks at #47 if he was available, and they did bring in receivers Tuinei and Kearse in undrafted free agency.  Still, I was expecting a lot more activity out of the Pac-12 than that.

Kearse has a chance to make it in the NFL, but he’s going to have his work cut out for him on a roster that is already bursting at the seams with backup wide-receivers.  I’ll probably write about him in more detail at a later time.

Anyway, that’s it for now.  It’s silly to hand out instant-reaction draft grades, but I feel like being silly, so I’ll have a draft grade post up later today tomorrow.

Written by Kip Earlywine

(The open thread for Day three is down below.  Also, don’t miss my Russell Wilson reaction from a few hours ago)

Man, I’m drained.  And sleep?  Forget it.

I watched the Seahawks draft Russell Wilson, a player I badly wanted but never thought I’d get, and then minutes later I switched the channel to watch Michael Saunders hit a game winning 10th inning grand slam in a game they absolutely had no business going to extras in.  It was maybe the best moment of the Mariner’s season, and it happened about twenty or thirty minutes after experiencing maybe the coolest draft moment ever for me.  To say the least, it was a pretty awesome day.

The less awesome part of it?  Seeing the Seahawks pass on Lavonte David for Robert Wagner (sorry dude).  Wagner is a quality “glue that keeps the defense together” kind of guy, the same kind of guy that’s destined for a future free agency period where for weeks he’s ignored before getting a pity contract (Stephen Tulloch, etc).  Lavonte David… he’s a playmaker and a difference maker.  He’s the kind of guy who is almost destined for pro-bowls and future “is he over-rated?” discussions on Sportscenter.   Bobby Wagner is a good pick, but Seattle stepped over a dollar to pick up a quarter here in my opinion.  In fairness, Malcolm Smith really impressed me in limited looks last year* and he has the same size, build, and skill set as Lavonte David.  Maybe Carroll passed on David because he believes Smith is poised for a breakout season?

*(as did Dexter Davis)

A lot of people are talking about the fact that Seattle lost a chance at Mychal Kendricks with their move down.  That part actually doesn’t bother me all that much.  My grades for Wagner and Kendricks were pretty much neck and neck.  I think Kendricks has the higher upside, but both have areas for improvement and room for growth.  Wagner was the better of the two in coverage and made fewer negative plays.  It is certainly conceivable that Pete and John had Kendricks higher, but I’m guessing it was close.  I’m sure they knew that the Eagles would be taking a linebacker at #46 (as much was obvious to everyone), and the Seahawks decided to trade with the Jets anyway.

That said, I’ve been saying for a while that Bobby Wagner seemed like too good a fit for Pete Carroll to ignore.  In my linebacker writeup from just the other day, I ranked Wagner as the 3rd most likely linebacker target for Seattle in the entire draft (though this is made less impressive by who I ranked ahead of him).  I estimated that Seattle would give Wagner a 2nd round grade.  When the pick was announced, I was hoping for David, but was half expecting Wagner instead.  If you are a regular reader of this blog, you probably weren’t all that surprised either.

So what does Wagner bring to the table?  I scouted Wagner and wrote a report on him a few weeks back, but all you really need to know is that he is (in my opinion) the best man cover middle linebacker in the draft.  I didn’t get to see him drop into zone much, but when asked to cover tight ends and running backs he was on them like a shadow.  He’s adequate against the run but nothing more, not yet anyway.  Wagner put up some solid stats in his senior year, but that was in a weird hybrid defense that had him playing reps as a pass rusher on the line.  While I commend him for showing versatility, the fact is that almost every sack in Wagner’s career came from him playing in a 3-4 OLB type role.  As a middle linebacker he produced nothing as a pass rusher.  I’m not saying that can’t change, but as of now I’d not expecting Wagner to be much of an impact in the pass rush.  In fairness, most 4-3 middle linebackers aren’t terrific pass rushers.

The other thing Wagner brings to the table is his speed.  Seattle got killed by passes that targeted running backs and tight ends the last couple years.  Wagner not only provides an asset in coverage, but even when he’s not covering the target he has the speed to minimize damage on screen plays and safety valve throws.  Wagner’s speed also helps minimize the liability that Red Bryant presents against end around rushers.  We saw this problem plenty last season against quicker running backs like DeMarco Murray, Roy Helu, LeSean McCoy, and even Kendall Hunter.

In a sense, Wagner is going to be the Earl Thomas of the second level.  Thomas only had two interceptions last year, but ended up a second team all-pro because he made fewer mistakes and Pete Carroll used Thomas’ speed to allow the rest of the secondary more room for error.  Thomas didn’t make a ton of plays, but he was clearly one of the most valuable defensive players in the entire league and was rewarded appropriately.  Wagner is going to make plays with his speed so that some of the bigger bodies up front won’t always have to.

I get kind of a Doug Baldwin vibe from Wagner.  He was told by his family, teachers, and even some of his coaches that he had a 1% chance to ever make it to the NFL, and that he should focus on a different career instead.  Obviously, Wagner is going to be playing on Sundays, and probably for a long time.  Now that I think about it, this whole draft so far has a  “Doug Baldwin’s chip on the shoulder” vibe to it.  Bruce Irvin has to prove to the Mel Kiper’s of the world that he wasn’t a reach at #15.  Wagner had to overcome doubts just to get this far.  Russell Wilson has to prove himself to a legion of haters who think he has no chance in the NFL.  Is that an accident?  I wonder.  At least this year, it appears that Pete with his “always compete” mantra is naturally drawn to underdog types.

Seattle added a fourth rounder and a very early sixth rounder by moving three spots in round one, a move that cost Seattle nothing.  Moving down four spots in the second for a 5th and a 7th is a terrific deal.  Not that Seattle can keep striking gold every single year, but picks like those turned into Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman in the 5th, and Malcolm Smith and Dexter Davis in the 7th.  Losing Kendricks may have hurt for some, but if the right to pass on Kendricks lands us two more players even close to that level, it’s pretty hard to argue.

One last thing about Wagner before I move on.  Jerry Jones said after today’s draft that he would have taken Bobby Wagner at #45* if he hadn’t traded the pick to move up for Morris Claiborne.  If Wagner turns into a pro-bowler, we’ll have to send Jones a thank you card.

*(and not Mychal Kendricks)

In their post day two press conference, Pete Carroll revealed to reporters that two teams contacted him after the Russell Wilson selection telling him that they would have picked Wilson right after Seattle in the event that they had passed on him.  I know stuff like this might not matter to some, but I think it’s interesting.  Part of the reason Seattle has been so effective at drafting under this regime is their uncanny sixth sense for when players are about to leave the board.  It also shows that Pete and John were not alone in thinking that Russell Wilson was worth a 3rd round pick.

Some names to watch for on day three:

I’m glad that all three of Seattle’s picks so far have been player’s I’ve covered, but that is probably where my success preparing for the draft ends.  I do think Seattle will add a running back, but after that it’s really anyone’s guess what they might do.  I suspect that they’ll add a defensive back or two.  They might still add a project type linebacker with speed (there are several who still remain) to compete at the WILL position.  Keep an eye on the tight end position too.  Finally, don’t sleep on WR, even though Seattle already has a ton of them.  This is a deep WR class and no other area will present better value in the later rounds. With seven picks and most of the major needs already addressed, expect Seattle to have a bit of a free for all grabbing the best under-the-radar talents they’ve found.  Here are a few I’m watching for:

Logan Harrell, DT: Productive, high effort pass rusher, though lacking in size and played in a weak conference.

Jared Crick, DT: High motor pass rusher that could produce if surrounded by a good supporting cast.

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Jonathan Massaquoi, DE: An above average pass rusher that struggles diagnosing the run.  Not an obvious fit for Seattle’s scheme, but he’s talented.

Trevor Guyton, DE: Rock solid 5-tech depth.  Pac-12 connection.  Keep an eye on this one.

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Ronnell Lewis, LB: Can play DE or SAM LB.  Special teams demon.  Why he’s still available is beyond me.

Nigel Bradham, LB: Five star recruit out of high school.  Good tape, what little I’ve seen.  Great measurables.  I’ve heard mixed reviews from FSU fans though.

Josh Kaddu, LB: Versatile player that can play outside linebacker and might even be a rotational option at LEO.

Danny Trevathan, LB: Fast, highly productive, met with team.

Miles Burris, LB: Fast pass rushing option at WILL.

Korey Toomer, LB: Zach Brown with a smaller price tag.

Marcus Dowtin, LB: Coverage oriented linebacker with speed.  Some off the field concerns.

James Michael-Johnson, LB: Terrific zone coverage middle linebacker that does everything else pretty well also.

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Ron Brooks, CB: He’s only 5’10” but he’s very physical in press coverage despite that.  Makes a lot of plays.  He ran a 4.37 forty with a 38″ vert.  One of my favorite corners in the draft. Met with team.

Donnie Fletcher, CB: Six foot corner.  Met with team.

Jeremy Lane, CB: Same deal.

Josh Bellamy, CB: Same deal.  Also he’s a DB who’s name sounds like Jay Bellamy, which is cool.  WR/CB convert like Sherman.

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George Iloka, SS: Brandon Browner size with good tape at strong safety.  Met with team.

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Chris Polk, RB: I’m hearing that half the teams in the NFL have Polk completely off their boards after it was found that he has a degenerative shoulder condition.  Sadly, the Seahawks may be one of those teams.

Lamar Miller, RB: Miller fell this far also because of shoulder issues, though I haven’t heard of them being as scary as Polk’s.

Robert Turbin, RB: Might be the best running back available if Miller and Polk are scratched for health reasons.

Tauren Poole, RB: Under-rated back, very similar to Chris Polk.

Terrance Ganaway, RB: Strong, disciplined, productive.  He kind of reminds me of TJ Duckett.

Vick Ballard, RB: Big, strong, and faster than you’d think.

Cyrus Gray, RB: Average back with slightly above average speed.

Chris Rainey, RB: A possible heir to Leon Washington in the RB/KR role.

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Jeff Fuller, WR: He might have gone second round if not for having such a terrible 2011 season.

Dwight Jones, WR: He has small hands and drops a lot of passes, but otherwise he might be a 1st round talent.  Wilson and Flynn throw a soft, catchable ball.

Juron Criner, WR: Criner has no business lasting this long.  He’ll be a quality #2 WR from day one.

Marvin Jones, WR: Same deal.

Nick Toon, WR: Why not pair Wilson with his top receiver from college?

Jermaine Kearse, WR: Highly inconsistent, but seemed to drop fewer balls when Keith Price was there.  He has enough talent to merit a late round look for some team.

Devin Aguilar, WR: Aguilar was the Huskies version of Ben Obomanu.

Marvin McNutt, WR: He had a huge year.  I’m surprised he’s still available.

Chris Givens, WR: Same deal.

Tommy Streeter, WR: 6’5″, 219 pounds.  4.40 forty.  35″ arms.

Greg Childs, WR: Great player recovering from injury.  Will be a steal for some team.

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Orson Charles, TE: The best tight end remaining on the board.

Taylor Thompson, TE: Very strong blocker with the athleticism to develop into a dual threat tight end.  Late round option.

David Paulson, TE: Slow forty, but he’s a  good blocker and a good receiver.  Met with team.

Adrien Robinson, TE: Met with team.

Derek Carrier, TE: Met with team.

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Bobby Massie,  T: Biggest steal of the draft at any position entering day three.  Fits Tom Cable size criteria and has 35″ arms.

Andrew Datko, T: He’s shed some weight this year which puts him in the range for a Tom Cable selection.

Ryan Miller, G: Good player, bad team.  Will Colorado count as a Pac-12 team to Pete?