Author: Kip Earlywine (Page 8 of 13)

Written by Kip Earlywine

Biases.  We all have them.  I’ve been a big Washington Huskies fan for over twenty years.  Naturally, that is going to impact how I view Husky players that transition to the NFL, though it may not always the way you’d expect.  Watching four years of Jake Locker made me painfully aware of his shortcomings (I listed 17 bullet points in his weaknesses section) and compared him to Vince Young.  Previously, I had compared him to Jake Plummer.  Not exactly glowing comparisons.  I didn’t rule out 1st round potential for Locker, but I’d like to think that my evaluation was a sober one.  Which I think says a lot given that Jake Locker’s legacy at Montlake was legendary.

I was also a skeptic of linebacker Mason Foster, and rolled my eyes when I heard the common assertion that he was the Huskies top senior (over Locker).  I wasn’t the biggest fan of running back Louis Rankin.  I’ve also been a skeptic this year of defensive tackle Alemeda Ta’amu and offensive tackle Senio Kelemete.  Ta’amu made very few splash plays and was a part of the worst defense in school history (possibly the worst run defense in school history as well).  Senio Kelemente didn’t stand out among his peers on what was one of the worst offensive lines in the conference.  I wish them the best as Husky alums, but I don’t want them anywhere near my Seattle Seahawks, unless it’s because they are starting for the other team.

Really, the only Huskies player I can think of that I liked more than most coming out of school in recent times was Donald Butler, who’s become a solid and improving inside linebacker for the San Diego Chargers.  Not bad value for a 3rd round pick.  To be honest, it’s bugged me for a long time that Mason Foster was a draft darling and Donald Butler wasn’t.  Foster made some amazing plays, but he wasn’t the game in, game out “heart of the defense” kind of player that Butler was.

Well today, I’m going to increase that list of one Husky player to two, because Chris Polk has impressed me over the last 3 years more than almost any other Husky player in all my years of watching UW football.  Nothing wins me over faster than a player who exceeds my expectations or provides consistent quality play, and Polk did both of those things week in and week out for almost his entire college career.  Polk might just be the most under-rated running back of this draft class, as you’d have to watch him every week and see his impact on the flow of the offense to truly understand his value.

Before I get started breaking Polk down, it needs to be pointed out that of all the top running backs in this draft, Polk played behind by far the worst offensive line.  Too many times, Polk met defenders in the backfield from poor blocking, but used his unique tackle breaking skill set and excellent instincts to turn negative plays into positive ones.  That Chris Polk is even in the discussion with guys like Lamar Miller or Doug Martin who played behind excellent lines says a lot about Polk’s abilities.  Despite having a weak line, Polk came just 57 yards shy of becoming Washington’s all time leading rusher, and the one guy who beat him (who had a very solid NFL career) did so behind a much better line back when the Huskies were fringe national title contenders.

With excellent balance, a high-knee running style, and the rare dual ability to either power through tackles or slip through them, Polk was the perfect back for Washington’s troubled running game.  A lot of Huskies fans think that Polk’s departure will not matter much as his successor Bishop Sankey has talent (he’s a Leon Washington clone), but I’ll believe it when I see it.  Polk was the secret MVP of the Steve Sarkisian era.  Just twice out of thirteen games last year did a defense hold Polk under 4 yards a carry.  Just three times out of thirteen games did a defense hold Polk under 100 rushing yards.  Polk may not rip off big touchdown runs with regularity, but his ability to consistently produce positive plays adds up in a hurry.  He was the very heartbeat of Sarkisian’s version of the West Coast offense, which is designed to have the pass set up the run.  That’s not easy to do when your offensive line gets beat all the time, but Chris Polk made it work anyway.

As if that rushing production wasn’t impressive enough, Polk chipped in with 332 receiving yards and 4 receiving touchdowns, including a 70 yarder on a go route.  Polk can run vertical routes as well or better than most receivers do, which I probably don’t have to tell you is exceedingly rare.  Over the last decade you can count the number of franchise running backs with that ability on one hand.  Polk has outstanding concentration and presence of mind in addition to having terrific hands.  In my opinion, Polk is the best receiver at running back since Reggie Bush, although Bush was a very different type of receiving threat.  Polk is a unique weapon as a receiver and Steve Sarkisian only just began to tap into that during Polk’s final season.

Polk has deceptively solid speed.  He has no shortage of touchdowns over 40 yards the last several seasons.  I expect them to become less common at the NFL, but Polk’s field speed is pretty much identical to Doug Baldwin’s, and we’ve seen Baldwin outrun defenses to the end zone last year.  Polk ran an unofficial 4.46 forty followed by an unofficial 4.57 at the combine, which somehow became an official 4.57 time.  He posted an unofficial 4.45 at his pro day (4.49 official).  The site that I use to track combine numbers lists Polk’s forty time at 4.45.  In order to remain consistent (I used the same table for everyone else), I included their (fast) time in concert with Polk’s (slow) official combine time.  I think the truth is somewhere in between.  When healthy and in shape, Chris Polk is probably a 4.50 forty kind of guy, which just happens to be NFL average among wide receivers.  In the end, I didn’t list Polk’s speed as either a strength or a weakness.  It’s neither.  It’s neither a weapon nor a hindrance.

Polk is a natural back who tends to make the most of his chances.  He knows when to dive for two yards when trying something more heroic would probably lead to a two yard loss.  Despite having a less than imposing stature, Polk is eager to drive a shoulder into would be tacklers and push for the extra yard or two.  Unlike most physical runners, Polk runs with a high center of gravity very similar to Golden Tate, which allows him to keep his knees high and churn his legs through tough sledding.  Like Tate, Polk has a strong sense of balance and can keep plays going for extra yards.  Outside of Trent Richardson, Polk appears to be the best yards after contact back in the draft because of this trifecta of tackle breaking traits.  Polk can power through a tackle but he can also slip through them too.

Polk excels at generating positive yardage almost every time he touches the ball, and he rarely fumbles.  He’s an ideal back for a ball control styled offense, particularly one that runs a zone blocking scheme and has an appreciation for the deep ball.  As such, I expect teams like Seattle or Green Bay to have serious interest in his skill set.

On the downside, Polk has never developed into a good pass blocker even with his strength and high effort.  Despite having nice size (his playing weight last year was 222 pounds) Polk has a soft physique to the naked eye: he doesn’t look cut the same way that pretty much every other top running back looks.  I don’t care about that, but I could see how that could bother GMs who are less familiar with Polk and could make judgements about athleticism based on his appearance.  Polk also had a pair of shoulder injuries/surgeries during his Huskies career, most recently in January of 2010.  It might be asked how much a shoulder injury matters to a running back, but for a physical back like Polk with receiving skills, it might matter a bit more than not at all.

As a final critique to Polk, I’d point out that while his performances are very consistent, his speed isn’t.  Maybe his worst game last year was his final game against Baylor.  Thankfully, Baylor has a terrible defense which allowed Polk to amass 147 yards and a long touchdown, but truth be told, he looked slow and stiff that game.  There will be games here and there where Polk looks like he’d lose to David Hawthorne in a footrace.  They are rare instances, but I’d be lying if I said they didn’t concern me at all.

In conclusion:

How highly you think of Polk will directly correlate to what you value from a running back.  Do you value first downs or big plays?  Do you value pass catching or pass blocking?  For a team that wants a Clinton Portis type, it’s not hard for me to see them grading Polk in the 4th or 5th round.  For a team that is looking for an Arian Foster type of back, Polk could earn a much higher grade.

Speaking of which, how much does pass protection actually matter for a running back?  Probably a decent amount.  But consider something.  Here is a list of the best and worst pass blocking running backs in 2010.  Here are the 15 worst rated pass blockers:

That’s not a bad list of running backs, particularly the top 3.  Baltimore, Minnesota, and Tennessee have the three worst pass blocking backs in the league, but they aren’t exactly fretting about it since those backs bring so much else to the table.  I don’t mean to diminish the value of pass blocking, but at the same time, it’s clearly something that can be overcome by strong contributions in other areas.

Polk is a unique player that has drawn a variety of comparisons.  Some compare him to Golden Tate because the physique, balance, high center of gravity and ability to generate yards after contact are so similar.  Some have compared him to Ricky Watters, who like Polk was a rare case of being a high school wide receiver that converted to running back in college.  Though we all remember Watters as a thick and beasty runner, he was actually a slim physique guy with an upright running style much like Chris Polk back when Watters was playing in college for Notre Dame.  Watters was also a prolific receiver for a running back and had strong yards after contact.  I’ve even heard some comparisons between Chris Polk and Walter Payton due to Payton’s ability to continuously churn his legs and keep his balance.  More than a few scouts have compared Polk to Corey Dillon, which I disagree with slightly but consider flattering nonetheless, as Corey Dillon was the Trent Richardson of his day and finished his career with (in my opinion) a Hall of Fame resume.

Barring injury, I think Polk is going to have a very good career, and will be an absolute steal in the 3rd or 4th round, should he last that long.  I wouldn’t rule out Polk as a second round pick, even as a 2nd round pick by the Seahawks.  His unique combination of talents could quietly vault him up some draft boards even as he falls on others.  Given the connection Pete Carroll and Steve Sarkisian share and the fact that they both run nearly identical offenses, I see little reason to think Chris Polk couldn’t succeed for Pete Carroll after quietly being the MVP of Steve Sarkisian’s offenses the last three years.  Chris Polk may not get the team on Sportscenter’s top plays as much as Marshawn Lynch does, but he’ll win you over with quality play every game, one snap at a time.

Compilation videos:

vs. Colorado

vs. Nebraska

vs. Stanford

vs. Baylor

Highlights #1

Highlights #2

Highlights #3

Written by Kip Earlywine

Something I’ve come to believe as I’ve gotten older is that the more I learn about something, the more I realize how little I actually know.  I think every fan has had moments where they believed they were smarter or had better evaluation skills than an NFL front office.  There were times when I felt that way in the past.  That said, after watching John Schneider and Pete Carroll find so many mid to late round success stories, it’s really hammered home how vast a difference there is between my ability to evaluate talent and theirs.  I wasn’t a fan of the KJ Wright pick.  I wasn’t a fan of the Kam Chancellor pick.  I was lukewarm on Richard Sherman (although I did like his upside).  I was lukewarm on Earl Thomas.  And I never thought Doug Baldwin would amount to anything in the NFL, and that was after having the benefit of seeing him in four preseason games.

Because of humbling experiences like those, I’ve come to believe in my own opinion a little less and listen to the input of others a little more.  There are times when I rate a player much higher than most others, but I accept that there must be logical reasons for the divergence in opinion.  Perhaps they have access to information I don’t have?  Perhaps I overlooked a fault or didn’t put enough value on it?  Perhaps my amateur level understanding of scheme and fit plays a role in how well that player can translate his game?

However, witnessing the slow yet steady decline of Lamar Miller’s draft stock over the past couple months has put this attitude to the test.  Miller began the offseason as a possible mid-first round pick.  I’m not a subscriber to ESPN insider, but its my understanding that in Mel Kiper’s most recent Mock (4.0), he didn’t even list Lamar Miller going in the first two rounds at all.  Kiper may be the first to be so bold, but he’s simply reflecting the consensus feeling that Miller continues to drop and drop and drop down mock drafts.  Its getting harder and harder to find a mock that even has Miller going in the first half of round two at this point.

To me, that’s crazy talk.  Granted, Miller only has one full starting season to go by, but his tape is first round quality, and he had a very strong combine.

There is only one good reason to devalue Miller’s stock, which is the stiff competition he faces from being part of the deepest and most competitive running back class in years.  Trent Richardson is clearly the top back, but spots two through four are almost a tie (in my opinion) between Lamar Miller, Doug Martin, and Chris Polk, with David Wilson drawing strong consideration from many places too.  Not just that, but the next tier of running backs is loaded with talents like LaMichael James, Robert Turbin, Isaiah Pead and Bernard Pierce.  Even going into the 5th and 6th rounds, you will find starter quality backs like Cyrus Gray, Tauren Poole, Vick Ballard and Terrance Ganaway.  You don’t have to be an economist to understand the effects of supply and demand, and the incredible depth of running back options will tempt many teams to spend that valuable second round pick on another area of need instead.

Heck, even Rob and I were guilty of as much when we passed on Lamar Miller in Mocking the Draft’s writer’s mock, though we only did so because we felt convinced that a linebacker with the kind of special speed Seattle wants would not last another round.  It still hurt though, because while Rob and I may not always agree on every prospect, we both view Miller as a 1st round talent.  Getting Miller in the second round would feel a lot like having another first round pick.

There is so much to like about Miller, he’s kind of the Lavonte David of running backs:  a mountain of positive features with some uncertainties but no glaring negatives.

First, let’s talk about speed.  Lamar Miller is tied with David Wilson for being the fastest big name running back in the draft.  But unlike Wilson who accomplishes that speed with long strides, Miller takes very short strides which gives him change of direction skills that Wilson can only dream of.  Whereas Wilson is easily the least shifty of the top running backs, Miller is the shiftiest back in the draft.  Miller’s ability to juke and slip around defenders makes him a frequent comparison to Clinton Portis.

Miller has pull away speed and will be a threat to score from anywhere even in the NFL. He’s not Chris Johnson tier, but he’ll be faster than most running backs in the league on day one.  This is a very valuable asset as Seattle still needs to find more ways to produce big plays.  He also has the quickness to be dangerous both inside and outside of the tackles.  Every carry Miller makes has a good chance to be a big gain.

Miller’s vision is a strength and he has the instincts to take what he can get when appropriate or show the patience to hit a developing cutback lane instead.  He accelerates with deceptive speed and knows how to get skinny at the first level.  Miami had an above average run blocking line, but Miller knows how to take full advantage of good blocking and maximize yardage with his opportunities.  In my four game sample I was very impressed with the very low number of negative plays Miller made.  Everything comes naturally to him and he often makes it all look very easy.  He’s also consistent game to game.  Only three times in twelve games last year did Miller average less than 4.2 yards per carry.

I think what surprised me the most about Miller is how tough he was to bring down.  He doesn’t look especially muscular and typically runners with elusive skill sets tend to lack strength.  Miller isn’t quite as strong as Chris Polk or Doug Martin, but he plays hard and can push a pile.  That power is even more surprising since he tends to avoid stiff arms in favor of maximized ball security.  Per ESPN, Miller has only had three fumbles (two lost) in 381 career touches.  Miller knows how to take care of the rock which will have added appeal for a ball control team like Seattle that stresses turnover ratio very heavily.

Miller is only 20 years old as of this writing (he turns 21 next week).  Like Trent Richardson and David Wilson, time is on Miller’s side as he’ll have nine full NFL seasons before reaching his 30th birthday.

One of the drawbacks of being so young is that Miller hasn’t had a very large body of work yet, which means we really can’t say much about his receiving ability or pass blocking.  In my sample he made a diving touchdown catch and never suffered a drop, so I think the initial signs there are encouraging.  As far as pass blocking, I have no idea, but given how hard he plays the game, I’d imagine he’s a willing blocker and will be receptive to coaching.  Some teams who are looking for an immediate three down starter could shy away from Miller because of the risk that he’s potentially only a two down back.  Seattle has twenty six year old Marshawn Lynch on a four year contract, making them an ideal landing spot for Miller as he can work on his receiving and blocking skills over the next few years while backing up a franchise player.

Miller suffered a shoulder injury early last season, but it appeared to be minor and Miller didn’t miss time from it.

In conclusion:

Lamar Miller isn’t just a second round steal, he’s a perfect fit in every way for what the Seahawks need at running back.  He’s good enough to be a legitimate starting running back if Lynch gets hurt, and he’s also useful as a change of pace back in the meantime.  A Lynch/Miller paring would be a lot like the Gore/Hunter pairing in San Franscisco, where Frank Gore wears down a defense and then Kendall Hunter slashes through a weary defense while Gore rests.  You may recall in Seattle’s second game against the 49ers the Seahawks defense contained Gore (3.6 YPC) but was consistently punished by Hunter (6.1 YPC).  Hunter was a 4th round pick last year, and his addition to the roster not only gave the 49ers a future successor to Gore but also improved the running game in the short term.  Miller could do the same, except better.

Wherever Miller goes, I have little doubt he’ll continue the recent tradition of excellence from Miami running backs.  In just the last decade or so, Miami has produced the following list of productive NFL running backs:  Edgerrin James, Clinton Portis, Willis McGahee, and Frank Gore.  Miller has the talent to join that impressive list of names in a few years’ time.

Compilation videos:

vs. Maryland

vs. Virginia Tech

vs. Ohio State

vs. Boston College

Written by Kip Earlywine

Tank Carder played middle linebacker in TCU’s 4-2-5 defense.  Carder was voted an All American by ESPN and the AFCA in 2010.  In 2011, Carder was a consensus All American.

Defensive coordinators at both the NFL and college levels are beginning to lean towards nickle defenses as a base defense due to the advent of the elite pass catching TEs we’ve seen the last few years.  TCU is one such team that has already gone there.  Because of this unconventional base scheme, TCU used Carder in a very aggressive role that had him attacking the line of scrimmage very often as opposed to a more typical 4-3 Mike who lets the play come to him most of the time and acts as the second level’s safety net.  The result of using Carder so aggressively was fewer tackles but a greater number of big plays.

There is a lot to like about Tank Carder, and if not for the unconventional role he played in college I’d wonder why so many experts have Carder in the 4th or 5th round.  Carder’s forty time is average, but his field speed is better than average.  His vertical jump is average, but his short area quickness is one of his biggest strengths.  Carder’s 1.57 ten yard split is very close to the numbers put up by Mychal Kendricks or Zach Brown.  Carder’s 6.89 three cone drill is also one of the fastest among all linebackers.  On tape, I thought he looked every bit as quick as those measurements would indicate.  He has very quick feet and can drop his hips and accelerate as fast as any linebacker in the draft.  He also really impressed me with his stop and go agility.  Its very hard to run by Carder in the open field because he breaks down with his lower body so well.

TCU used Carder as an attacking linebacker which is smart because like Aaron Curry, Carder is at his best when he’s allowed to be aggressive.  And while I know its tempting to assume any comparison to Curry is a bad thing, it’s not.  There were certainly some areas where Curry had a lot of ability, he just couldn’t overcome some weaknesses that cancelled out his strengths.  Carder is a natural downhill linebacker and he could probably play any of the linebacker spots if he added weight.

Carder is a fun player to watch and in particular I love watching him lay out on a tackle or a sack, which he does several times a game.  Carder may not have the strongest upper body, but he knows how to explode into a tackle.  On the downside, he dives after tackles a bit too much for my liking, and I’ve also noticed that he tends to leave his feet sometimes and forgets to drive his legs through the tackle.  There are also times where he goes for the hit and sometimes forgets to wrap up, but when he does hit, they can be quite spectacular (check out the Wisconsin video at the 3:30 mark).

Only a week younger than Demario Davis, Carder also has the “old” prospect label.  It’s nothing worth holding against him as a prospect, but he’ll have fewer years before his 30th birthday than most other prospects, which diminishes his total value slightly.

I only have one significant concern with Carder, and that is his ability to give run support.  A couple times a game he’ll let a runner escape untouched through his gap.  Carder also needs to refine his tackling as he’s currently relying on the big hit too much and doesn’t wrap and drive consistently.  He’s also disturbingly prone to being blocked out of plays.  For as hard as he can hit, he gets pushed out of a lane in a hurry.

In conclusion:

I don’t want to get into a guessing game about what Seattle’s 2012 defensive scheme will look like, because I’m not an X’s and O’s guy, but I can tell you this:  I think Seattle’s defensive scheme will probably make a major shift of some sort next year.  Why do I think this?  First, I think this because Rob and I have it on good authority that the team has some interest in Courtney Upshaw and Melvin Ingram, and there is almost no way you could pencil in a guy like that on 2011’s defense without changing the scheme in some way to make it work.  Second, we know that Seattle wants to “get faster” at linebacker even though their previous three linebackers had decent speed (when healthy).

I think when Pete Carroll says he wants to get faster at linebacker, he’s telling the truth, but that lesser truth serves to disguise a greater truth, which is that Pete is looking for a fundamentally new kind of linebacker corps with completely different skill sets-  just like how TCU’s linebacker corps are very different from most 4-3 teams.  David Hawthorne was PFF‘s #2 free agent inside linebacker this year, and Seattle (who had plenty of money) barely even tried to retain him.  When a team lets a good player go when they could have very easily retained that player, that is often a sign that the team has something new in mind scheme wise.

My hunch is that Seattle will prefer a “safety net” middle linebacker who can cover a lot of ground, which would make Zach Brown and Bobby Wagner prime candidates in round two.  Carder is good in coverage- zone coverage- because he reads quarterbacks well and has the acceleration to jump routes.  If Seattle is looking for that kind of middle linebacker, then Carder could be a great value in the mid rounds for Seattle.

I don’t know if Carder fits what Seattle wants, but he’s a player I really like.  His upside is pretty close to Lofa Tatupu, and his downside is pretty close to Matt McCoy.  I think at the least, Carder will be a good special teams player and backup inside linebacker.  Depending on what Pete envisions for the middle linebacker role, Carder could make a lot of sense for Seattle in rounds four or five.

Compilation videos:

JMPasq:  Tank Carder vs. Wisconsin (2010)

TMBDraft:  Tank Carder NFL Draft Analysis – 2010 Season

Written by Kip Earlywine

I still have a few more first and second round prospects I want to cover before the draft, but I think now is a good time to cover a few of the mid-round options for the Seahawks. Today, I’m starting with Demario Davis, a small school player who’s received some attention after a strong Senior Bowl week and a ridiculously awesome combine.

Davis played for Arkansas State of the Sun Belt conference, a conference that rarely produces national title contending teams and who’s best players are often late round draft picks.  It’s not a conference with a large national following.  As a result, available game tape on Davis is pretty rare.  If there is one area of the draft where draft pundits and actual scouting departments diverge the most- it’s with small school players.  A lot of national draft pundits barely care to scout those teams looking for gems, and when they do look into a player, it’s only after that player was thrust under the spotlight, either by a Senior Bowl performance, a strong combine, or perhaps after his name leaked out while having a conversation with real NFL scouts.  Ordinary people like us just don’t have the resources or man hours that NFL front offices have, and so while I’m just looking into Demario Davis less than two weeks before the draft, I’m sure many NFL scouting departments have been aware of him for years.

There is just one Davis compilation video on youtube, which I link below.  There are a few Arkansas St. games which flash a handful of plays by Davis.  Most of the videos I found were Demario Davis highlight reels posted by youtube user King23Respected, who I’m 99% certain is Demario Davis himself.  You know it’s rough when you might be one of the five best 4-3 LBs in the draft, and you have to do your own youtube videos (thanks for those, by the way).

Because there isn’t much material out there, Demario Davis hasn’t been talked about all that much among draft pundits or draft bloggers, or at least not as much as he deserves.  Davis is commonly mocked in rounds three or four, with some having him even later.  Will NFL front offices let him wait that long?  Is Davis a sleeper second round pick?  Well, he should be, in my opinion.  Let me be up front, I’ve seen nowhere near enough of Davis to meet my own standards for making a scouting report.  But what I’ve seen of him, I like a lot.

First, lets talk about the offseason Davis is having.  Davis was invited to the Senior Bowl and drew positive reviews.  At the scouting combine, Davis ran a 4.52 forty time, just a hair behind Mychal Kendricks and Zach Brown.  He posted an amazing 32 reps in the bench press, which was best among all linebackers and better than most linemen.  His 10 yard split was ordinary and his 3 cone time was a disappointment, but he posted a nice 38.50″ vertical.  Overall, Davis is having one of the better offseasons among all linebackers.

I had my suspicions about Davis.  How could a player stand out at both the Senior Bowl and combine and not be talked about more?  I worried he’d look flat on tape.  He didn’t.

If anything, what really jumps out is how agile Davis is.  How did Mychal Kendricks post a 6.70 3-cone while Davis posted a 7.19?  Did he fall down running it?  Davis’ change of direction skills and acceleration are among his greatest strengths, which makes him deadly as a pass rusher and potent in pursuit.  In terms of field speed, Davis is in my opinion, the fastest downhill running linebacker in the draft.  He play’s with a bit of an exaggerated lean which keeps his body weight over his toes at all times.  I’m not a linebacker coach and this approach probably has its drawbacks, but one thing it clearly helps Davis with is exploding forward once the play is diagnosed.  Davis doesn’t look as fast in a backpedal or in side to side speed, if only in those respects I’d rank him behind Zach Brown and Bobby Wagner.

At the combine Davis posted the aforementioned 32 reps on the bench press, which is extremely impressive.  Davis isn’t just weight room strong either.  He’s wowed me at times with his bone crunching hits and violent arms.  He can shed blockers well with just raw strength and plays way above his 235 pound weight.  In terms of strength he reminds me a lot of Courtney Upshaw, and to me that’s high praise as Upshaw has pretty much made a college career out of his strength and arm use.  Davis also knows how to combine his speed, acceleration, and power into some of the most awe-inspiring hits of any 2012 prospect I’ve seen to date.  As you might expect, his combination of speed and power makes him a feared special teams contributor as well.

Davis played mostly weak side linebacker, but his team played him all over the place as 235 pounds isn’t all that undersized for a linebacker in the Sun Belt conference.  I don’t know how many NFL linebackers man the middle at only 235 pounds, but I’m guessing its not many.  Davis is strong enough, tall enough, and fast enough to give it a try, but any team that drafts Davis could end up being stuck with him as a pure 4-3 Will linebacker if he can’t add more weight.  If Seattle drafts a likely Will linebacker with their second round pick, someone like Lavonte David, Mychal Kendricks or possibly even Zach Brown, that might cause them to approach Davis with caution unless they feel confident he has enough scheme diversity to play two spots in the linebacker corps.

Can Davis add weight?  I’m not sure.  To be honest, I was very surprised to see that he was measured the same height as KJ Wright, as on tape Davis looks short and squatty.  That could be an illusion created by the fact that Davis tends to lean much more than most linebackers do.  Anyway, a 6’3″ height would certainly imply potential for weight gain into the 240s or even 250s.  However, Davis doesn’t have a very wide or sturdy looking frame, and doesn’t lack for muscle.  I don’t know if his frame is maxed out, but I do have a hard time seeing him easily adding another 10 pounds, 6’3″ or not.

Davis’ speed, power, and violent style of play combined with his slightly smallish frame and relatively low weight could potentially make him a magnet for injuries at middle linebacker.  I don’t want to rule Davis out for anything, but like Mychal Kendricks I think Davis should probably be slotted in at Will linebacker if possible.

Against the run, Davis’ instincts are more good than bad, but he will occasionally guess wrong when attacking a run play, and occasionally he’ll misjudge a runner a slip off the tackle.  It’s more good than bad, and if a coach can improve him in those areas, he has elite potential against the run despite his weight.  He attacks the running game with a chip on his shoulder and gives top effort on every snap.

I really like how fast and fluid Davis looks when blitzing.  Not very many 4-3 linebackers are feared pass rushers, but Davis has a real chance to be one.  I think I like him as a blitzer even more than Mychal Kendricks- although Davis did excel against a lower level of competition, which has to be factored.

Its a very minor gripe, but it should be pointed out that Davis turns 24 years old during the 2012 playoffs, making him one of the older 2012 prospects.  Its nothing to hold against him really, but its worth something that he’ll have one or two fewer seasons in the NFL than many other draft eligible linebackers.

The biggest mystery about Davis is his coverage ability.  I didn’t see nearly enough of him to get a read on it.  Obviously, being as fast as he is helps a lot, and it’s common for linebackers to develop in coverage as they mature in the NFL.  If the Seahawks aren’t convinced about Davis’ coverage ability it is possible they might drop him down their draft board considerably if they are indeed looking for linebackers who can cover first and foremost.  I’m not bashing Davis’ coverage nor am I celebrating him for it.  I just don’t know how good he is at it, and even a lot of the scouting reports I read on Davis seem unsure as well.  I’m sure the Seahawks have formulated an opinion, I just don’t know which way that opinion will go.  Given his speed and effort, it’s probably in the affirmative, but I can’t say for certain.

In conclusion:

FFtoolbox had a great one-liner in their review of Demario Davis which I think says it all:

Davis has a ton of upside and honestly, he’s the type of player that Vontaze Burfict wishes he could become.

Like Burftict, Davis is a violent, nasty, and powerful player, but with the kind of speed and discipline that Burfict can only dream of.  This draft is loaded with 4-3 Will linebacker talent, but I think Davis might have the highest ceiling of them all.  He’s a very similar player to Mychal Kendricks but with more of a “wow” factor.  I’d happily take him in the 2nd round, but the good news is that Seattle might be lucky enough to snag Davis in the 3rd or 4th round depending on how long NFL GMs figure they can wait for him.  Davis has no business lasting into the 4th or 5th round, but if he does, he’ll be this year’s Kam Chancellor or Richard Sherman, the kind of player that will in short order cause writers around the NFL to openly ask how in the hell he lasted as long as he did.

Compilation videos:

JMPasq:  Demario Davis vs. Northern Illinois

vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (not specific to Davis)

vs. North Texas (not specific to Davis)

King23Respected’s Channel (has a few highlight videos)

Chris Spencer and Olindo Mare, moonlighting as AP photographers

Written by Kip Earlywine

Fellow blogger compatriot Brandon Adams of Seahawks blog 17power, posting under the moniker MontanaHawk05, had a nice writeup earlier today in which he critiques the Seahawks current regime. After reading through it, I figured I’d give my own, since I see things through a bit of a different prism than Brandon does, even if I agree with most of his substance on the subject.

You might want to grab a cup of coffee, this will be a long post.  Since its going to be so long, I might as well talk about how I go into an evaluation. Knowing the reviewer is as important as knowing the review.  For example, a thumbs up from Simon Cowell always meant something different than a thumbs up from Paula Abdul, because they had different standards and criteria to go by.  I don’t believe that I can convince everyone to my point of view, but instead I only hope to reach out to like minded thinkers and become a useful source of information, or at the least, an entertaining, thought-provoking read. Continue reading

Written by Kip Earlywine

Bruce Irvin is one of the draft’s most intriguing athletes.  He’s also one of the draft’s most interesting stories.  Irvin dropped out of high school in the 11th grade, ran in with the wrong crowd, and on two occasions missed jail time by the narrowest of margins.  If you have a bit of time, I’d encourage you to read his story.  Its pretty amazing.  He also sat down and gave an interview about his difficult past and how he turned his life around.

Irvin was recently in trouble for knocking a sign over and breaking it, but it sounds as if Irvin did not intend to break the sign and you could probably just chalk up that incident as innocent horseplay.  After working so hard to come this far, its pretty hard to believe he’d actually want to throw that away for no reason a month before the draft.  It may have been stupid, but I don’t think it was malicious.

Irvin played running back and wide receiver in high school, and when he later joined a junior college football team, he was initially a free safety.  Irvin was later moved to defensive end, and in his first full season at end he totaled 15 sacks.  This caught the attention of coaches for several major programs, and Irvin was eventually recruited by West Virginia.  Irvin had 14.5 sacks and 14 tackles for loss in his first West Virginia season (2010).  He posted 8 sacks and 14.5 tackles for loss in 2011.

The drop in production is a direct result of West Virginia switching to a 3-3-5 scheme last season and attempting to use Irvin as part of a three man line.  Irvin is a deadly pass rusher, but only when his contact with offensive tackles is minimal.  By Irvin’s own admission, his coaches never really taught him pass rushing techniques, and only used him as a pure athlete rushing the passer.  As a result, Irvin produces plays almost exclusively by running around or inside of offensive tackles- almost like a running back who’s attempting to run around a defensive lineman.  He resists engaging and when he’s caught in the tackles grasp he looks even more helpless than Melvin Ingram, which is saying something.  By putting Irvin in a three man front, it gave him less of an angle to use when running around the tackle.

Now, I’m not saying that to excuse Irvin’s shocking lack of technique, but it is what it is and West Virginia should have known better.  Irvin isn’t truly a pass rusher, he’s an great athlete posing as one.  Lining him up as a five technique for most of his snaps last year wasn’t a great idea.

There is some good news for Irvin though.  He’s got decently long arms- arms that are nearly a full two inches longer than Melvin Ingram’s.  Whereas Ingram’s struggles to disengage scare the heck out of me because his arms won’t get any longer, Irvin’s problem was lack of coaching and technique.  Irvin’s problems could certainly be fixable.  Irvin is also a bit like Mychal Kendricks in that they both have a bad habit of sinking their shoulders into blockers hoping to drive them back when instead they should be using proper arm technique.  If trained to hand fight and disengage, Irvin would benefit tremendously.  On the downside, if he fails to learn how to do this, he probably won’t have any future as a three point stance player in the NFL.

Normally, a player as raw and as lightweight as Irvin wouldn’t be drafted very highly.  The reason Irvin could be drafted as early as the 2nd round is because he’s a special athlete.  His 4.50 forty time was among the very best among front seven players at the combine, as was his 6.70 three cone time.  Those times are both nearly identical to those put up by the draft’s fastest linebacker, Mychal Kendricks.  Its not easy to accumulate almost 40 sacks over three college seasons without any technique.  That speaks very highly of Irvin’s raw athleticism and intriguing potential.

Irvin plays his ass off on every down, and never quits on a play.  Because of his inability to disengage, a very high number of his sacks were of the hustle variety.  That’s a backhanded compliment at best, but if there is such a thing as having talent for hustle sacks, Irvin’s got it.

Irvin is a liability in the running game.  He struggles to shed blocks against the run just as badly as he does against the pass.  At best, he’ll occupy space and hope for a teammate to make the stop.  On the positive side, I was pleased to see Irvin was at least able to hold his ground without being driven back by single blockers.  Irvin can be swallowed up in the running game, but at least he’s not getting blown back and opening running lanes on a consistent basis.  Irvin may not have strong arms, but isn’t without power in his lower body, and that helps him hold the point of attack surprisingly well for a 244 pound player.  Overall, I personally think Irvin’s run defense issues have a lot more to do with technique and strength than size.  Which is good because those kinds of things can be worked on.  With improved hand use and some increased upper body strength, its not unthinkable that Irvin could develop into a passable run defender a couple years down the line.

Its crucially important that wherever Irvin goes, he has a coach that quickly and effectively coaches him up in the art of pass rushing and hand use.  Irvin skated by at the college level on his elite athleticism alone.  That won’t continue in the NFL.

In conclusion:

Despite some massive flaws, Bruce Irvin is my favorite pure pass rusher in the 2012 draft.  He reminds me of a (much) smaller Jason Pierre-Paul with a bigger heart for the game.  The Giants drafted JPP in the mid first round hoping they could coach him up and reap the rewards of his amazing athleticism.  They succeeded, and now JPP is one of the league’s elite pass rushers.  For a team that doesn’t need pass rush help right away and is willing to take a chance, Irvin makes  a lot of sense at some point after the first round.  Buffalo in particular would make a lot of sense as a potential landing spot as they have their short term pass rush needs addressed but are thought to be looking for long term developmental pass rushers to play behind their current $140 million duo.

The Seahawks are another team that could make sense for Irvin.  Though interest in Irvin is mostly limited to 3-4 teams looking for outside linebacker help, unconventional 4-3 teams with time and patience could be suitors too.  Seattle is an unusually good place for Irvin by 4-3 standards since the team’s LEO position is a 9 technique which is ideal for a player like Irvin that does so well in open space as a pass rusher.  It is also a position that values run defense a little less than a base 4-3 end normally would, which is another good fit for Irvin.  With Chris Clemons under contract in 2012 and a free agent in 2013, it gives Irvin a little time to develop while hopefully grabbing the reins of the LEO spot in 2013 or 2014.

While I do not expect Seattle to show any interest in Irvin during the first three rounds, if he falls to Seattle’s 4th rounder, there is a chance Seattle could pull the trigger.  When Pete Carroll wants to fix something, he doesn’t do it half-assed, as evidenced by taking offensive line with his first two picks in the draft last year and then later signing Robert Gallery in free agency.  Drafting a 1st round pass rusher and then a second pass rusher later is certainly a possibility.  Irvin also fits the profile of the intriguing but flawed mid to late round prospect that Carroll and Schneider have repeatedly targeted in the last two drafts.

Irvin has double digit sack potential in the NFL, but he also has a disturbingly high chance to be a complete bust with little to no redeeming value.  He has the speed and athleticism to play multiple positions on both sides of the ball, but he’d have to learn how to play those as well.  The risk and uncertainty that comes with Irvin could keep him out of the 2nd or even 3rd round despite his gifts.  That said, it wouldn’t surprise me if things will work out and Irvin ends up delivering some metaphorical Muay Thai asskickings every Sunday.

Video sources:

JMPasq:  Bruce Irvin vs Maryland (2010)

JMPasq:  Bruce Irvin vs Pittsburgh

JMPasq:  Bruce Irvin vs Marshall

JMPasq:  Bruce Irvin vs Clemson

Written by Kip Earlywine

Sometimes it takes an example for an idea to become clear.  Last summer, many Seahawks fans (including myself) were hearing the term “point guard quarterback” for the first time.  This led to a period of confusion and misunderstanding about the meaning of the term and therefore, Pete Carroll’s intentions at quarterback.  Then, as luck would have it, the starting quarterback for my college football team (Keith Price) provided the perfect example of what a point guard quarterback looks like, and it gave me a much better idea of the kind of quarterback Pete Carroll is looking for.

Rob and I have had the good fortune to have some choice insider info over the last few years, and that source has led us to believe that Seattle holds Zach Brown in high esteem.

Tonight I sat down and began my “Draft Spotlight” writeup for Zach Brown, but then I stopped after I realized that Zach Brown’s tape told me less about him and more about Pete Carroll as a talent evaluator.  (I guess I’ll count this as my scouting report for Brown, since I did scout a five game sample and will cover the essentials down below.)

Zach Brown has elite speed, impressive size, and a frame that appears capable of adding another few pounds if need be, despite the fact that he’s already quite muscular.  Sometimes you see a prospect, and despite whatever flaws or reservations you may have, sometimes the guy just “looks the part” of an NFL player, physically speaking.  I’ve made similar comments about Brandon Weeden and Ronnell Lewis previously.  Quinton Coples could be another example.    Greg Little could be an example from last year.  Zach Brown falls into that category.  Physically speaking, he’s a chiseled 6′ 1 3⁄8″ tall, standing at 244 pounds with long 33 1⁄4″ arms. He could probably bulk up to 250 if he wanted as his upper body still has a tiny bit to go before it’s maxed out.  He has the body of a 3-4 outside linebacker or 4-3 SAM, but the speed of a corner. Continue reading

Written by Kip Earlywine

Rundown:   Mychal Kendricks is a senior middle linebacker for the Cal Bears.  He had previously played weak side linebacker in 2009 and 2010.  He was the Pac-12 defensive player of the year in 2011.

Age:  21 (September 28, 1990)

Height:  5’11″

Weight:  239

40 time:  4.47

10 yard split:  1.53

3 cone:  6.68

Vertical Jump:  39.50″

Compilation Videos:

vs. Washington (2010)

vs. Texas

vs. Stanford

vs. USC

Positives:

• Very fast
• Freak athlete, high burst, elite level closing speed
• Thick body type, very strong
• Warrior mentality, physical and fearless
• You better get a man on him when he blitzes…
• Good tackler.  Wraps and drives legs, follows through
• Legit versatility at Will or Mike… maybe even strong safety

Negatives:

• Short
• Maxed out frame
• Tendency to drop shoulder into blockers instead of shedding them with proper hand use
• Sometimes his aggressiveness overrules his instincts
• One dimensional pass rusher
• Quiet tape, not many splash plays

Mychal Kendricks is the fastest linebacker in the draft, and one of the most athletic prospects in the draft, period.  Kendricks’ 3 cone time is not only by far the best time among all linebackers, it was better than all eighteen 3 cone times posted by free safeties.  Out of 90 total defensive backs, only 8 had faster 3 cone times.  Kendricks also posted impressive split and vertical jump numbers, and his bench press totals were solidly above average among middle linebackers.  In many ways, it wouldn’t be an unfair comparison to call Kendricks a miniature Aaron Curry.  Both were mid round prospects that blew up the combine and saw their draft stock soar.  Curry did so in a much bigger body and as a result his hype got out of hand (though Rob and I both maintained more reasonable grades for Curry back then and were both infuriated by the pick when Tim Ruskell made it).

Only Dontari Poe helped his draft stock more at the combine.  That said, this front office bases it’s evaluation from game tape first and foremost, and given that Kendricks was a Pac-12 player for a USC rival school no less, I’m guessing he’s been on Pete and John’s radar much longer than he’s been on ours.

From film study, you wouldn’t expect Kendricks to run an unofficial 4.41 forty time, one of the fastest times ever for a middle linebacker.  He looks fast, but not any faster than Lavonte David did.  Where Kendricks speed really jumps off the screen is in his acceleration.  He’s at his best in pursuit of a mobile quarterback or a horizontal rushing attempt.

When blitzing, Kendricks explodes through lanes with the same kind of breathtaking raw athleticism boasted by Bruce Irvin.  Kendricks is not a polished pass rusher, but his raw ability is pretty damn impressive, and when he gets clean through the line, it almost always results in a hurry, hit, or sack.  Pete Carroll is very fond of outside blitzes from linebackers, corners and safeties.  Kendricks looks like someone who could be a potentially elite contributor in such a pass rush role.  Though a lack of pass rush repertoire is a common knock on Kendricks, I actually find his pass rush potential to be very exciting- if he’s used right.

Weighing in at 239 pounds, Kendricks would be an undersized middle linebacker in the NFL.  Kendricks has incredible power from his lower body and has strong arms too, but he’ll need to work on his hand use if he wants to remain effective in the middle at the next level, as too often linemen block Kendricks out of a play for too long.  I respect Kendricks for his attitude, he attacks blockers as they approach by lowering his shoulder and attempting to power them off.  That’s he’s successful at it even occasionally at his size is remarkable.  That said, its not good technique and he needs to grow out of that habit at the next level or else he could become a liability in run defense.  This is critical as Kendricks won’t be getting any taller and probably won’t be getting any heavier either.

While Kendricks has the versatility to play Mike, I think he’s best served as a Will in the NFL.  He’ll be blocked by linemen less and will get more opportunities as an outside blitzer.  At middle linebacker, Kendricks was almost exclusively used in zone coverage, which isn’t uncommon for the position.  Zone is a crutch for slower linebackers, and I was disappointed to see that Cal didn’t find ways to use Kendricks in more man coverage opportunities similar to Lavonte David or Bobby Wagner, who both excelled in that regard.

Kendricks plays aggressive and uses his closing speed, tackling technique, and strength to rack up tackles for loss.  He had 14.5 tackles for loss last season, nearly as many as Bobby Wagner had in his two 4-3 Mike seasons combined.  He’s as potent as Sean Spence attacking the line of scrimmage, but with fewer mistakes.

Kendrick’s arms are 1/8″ shorter than Lavonte David’s, and you might remember I listed arm length as a criticism for David when I did my writeup on him yesterday.  That said, I’m not sure if David will ever be big enough to play inside linebacker in the NFL whereas Kendricks could probably handle it, and inside linebackers tend to have significantly shorter arms.  Kendricks’ arm length is roughly average if not better by middle linebacker standards.

There is a warrior spirit in Kendricks.  He plays with a fire that is very slightly reminiscent of Ray Lewis.  He roars after making big plays and gushes intensity.  He doesn’t have the fun pre-game dance or the electrifying huddle ups though.

Its amazing what speed can do for you.  In addition to being a legit Mike or Will, its hard to look at Kendricks combination strengths and weakness and not think about how good he could be at strong safety.  Seattle has that position bolted down with Kam Chancellor and has quality depth in Jeron Johnson.  Still, Pete likes to use defensive packages that include extra defensive backs (Nickle, Dime, and Bandit), so its possible that Kendricks versatility as a possible safety option could hold some appeal there.

In conclusion:

Like Courtney Upshaw, Mychal Kendricks’ combination of determination, power, and aggressive play has commonly led evaluators to identify as him as a Pittsburgh Steelers type of player.  Last year we saw first hand how Seattle transformed its defense by becoming more athletic and more physical.  In that regard, Kendricks’ appeal to the Seahawks is obvious.

However, despite having a lot of nice things to say about Kendricks, I found his overall tape to be slightly underwhelming, at least when compared to Lavonte David.  Kendricks isn’t quite the big play machine I was expecting, and he stood out on Cal’s defense less than I had hoped.  His potential might be the highest of any linebacker in the draft though.  I’d probably give Kendricks a 3rd round grade based on his tape, but his ridiculous athleticism, versatility, and potential make him a solid second round pick.

Written by Kip Earlywine

Rundown:   Lavonte David is a senior linebacker from Nebraska.  He was not heavily recruited out of high school and began his college career at the junior college level.  David transferred to Nebraska in 2010 from Fort Scott Community College.  He produced immediately, and was named an All American in 2010.  The next season he was awarded the Butkus-Fitzgerald award, given to the best linebacker in the Big Ten.

Age:  22 (January 23, 1990)

Height:  6’1″

Weight:  233

40 time:  4.65

10 yard split:  1.56

3 cone:  7.28

Vertical Jump:  36.50″

Trivia:  Lavonte David was a high school teammate of Sean Spence (and also Jacory Harris).

Compilation Videos:

vs. Washington

vs. Iowa

vs. Michigan

vs. South Carolina

Positives:

• Fast
• Smart
• Consistent
• Very good in coverage
• Excellent closing speed
• Keeps eyes in the backfield, tracks ball carrier well
• Tackle Machine
• Effective blitzer
• Insanely productive
• Standout player on a talented defense

Negatives:

• Built more like a defensive back than a linebacker
• Not terribly physical
• Short arms
• He played at 225, can he remain as quick at 233?

Lavonte David is an undersized linebacker who saw reps at Mike and Will linebacker.  He could probably manage either role in the NFL, but he’d need to add bulk to man the middle on a consistent basis and his pass defense friendly skillset makes him a natural born weak side linebacker.

Its an imperfect task trying to judge coverage ability from broadcasts, but David consistently ran stride for stride with tight ends, which more often than not discouraged quarterbacks from targeting them.  In the Washington compilation you’ll see David make an eye opening interception against Keith Price on a pass targeting Austin Seferian-Jenkins.  The announcers thought the pass was underthrown, but it was actually a perfectly accurate pass that would have hit ASJ in the chest without him breaking stride.  Price did make a mistake on that play, and that mistake was underestimating Lavonte David’s ability to quickly close space in coverage.  Keith Price shattered school records last year and Austin Seferian-Jenkins could be a future first round pick at tight end.  Its amazing to think that play was David’s only interception of his Nebraska career.  Given his ability to cover and close space, this probably speaks of how little David is targeted as much as anything else.

David was one of the more undersized linebackers of 2011 to receive serious consideration in the 2012 draft.  He played at a meager 225 pounds- the same weight as 7th round pick Malcolm Smith.  Standing out of defensive formation, you might assume him to be a defensive back.  A 4.65 forty time does not seem to reflect David’s field speed very accurately.  Could the extra weight be slowing him down? I was surprised when David opted to stand by his combine performances at his pro-day.  From tape study he looks like a guy that could crack the 4.5’s easily, though I guess he would know best.  Its also worth noting that David weighed in at his pro day (which took place only a couple weeks after the combine) at 227 pounds.  Was the weight gain just for show?

Lavonte David may not be as physical as Dont’a Hightower or Ronnell Lewis, but he knows his limitations and acknowledges his lack of size when making tackles.  His tackling technique reminds me a lot of Marcus Trufant’s (an excellent tackler by corner standards).  He will attack the upper body when he has a perfect shot at it, but more often than not he dives for the legs and wraps up.  He’s sure tackler- very few of them are broken- but going lower body has the disadvantage of allowing the runner to fall forward for extra yardage.  Still, its better than not getting a tackle at all.  The same way that Russell Wilson has qualities that helped him work around his height, Lavonte David uses intelligent tackling technique to get the job done.  While its easy to dismiss David based on his weight, the guy had 285 tackles over the last two seasons, while playing about half his snaps at Will.  That’s unbelievable production for a 225 pound player.

David was consistent game to game in my four game sample.  He plays mostly mistake free football.  He doesn’t take many gambles, but he also doesn’t make as many tackles downfield as Luke Kuelchy or Bobby Wagner.  He tracks the ball carrier in the backfield and does a great job meeting the carrier as soon as that player penetrates the first level.  David does not attack behind the line of scrimmage often, but when he does, he makes it count. He’s a very dangerous pass rusher when he has a lane to attack and can easily track down rushers in the backfield when given the green light.  He had 24.5 tackles for loss and 11.5 sacks over the last two seasons.

With 31 3/4″ arms, David has some of the shorter arms among this year’s outside linebacker class.  The only other big name outside linebackers to have arms under 32″ are Sean Spence (who can play Mike where arm length matters less) and Melvin Ingram.  Arm length is not a glaring weakness for David, but he does struggle sometimes to get off blocks quickly and arm length plays a role in that (and will only get worse at the next level).  Arm length also plays a role in coverage, though David more than makes up for it by staying in the hip pocket of his assignment.  This isn’t much of a strike against David, its really more a case of how the best players often force evaluators to scrutinize the smallest of flaws.

In conclusion:

Lavonte David may be undersized, but in my opinion, he is the best pure 4-3 Will linebacker in the draft.  If David was 240 pounds, he’d be a no doubter 1st round pick, and who knows, maybe he’ll end up a 1st rounder anyway.  David could probably bulk up to 240 pounds if he really wanted to, but I suspect whichever team drafts him will just play him at his comfortable weight to begin with and see how things go.

With Malcolm Smith already on the roster, would Seattle draft another identically sized weak side linebacker?  I’m starting to lean towards yes.  David only played two seasons at the BCS level, but he stayed healthy, something Smith couldn’t do in four years at USC.  If you compiled Smith’s career numbers over 4 years and put them in one season, it still wouldn’t be as impressive as David’s 2010 All-American campaign, and David’s 2011 season was very impressive as well.  If Pete Carroll envisions a role for Smith, he could do the same for David.  Lavonte David is not without risk, but only a few defensive talents in the 2012 draft stood out amongst good defenses like David did.  I don’t know how the front office rates David, but he’d be a 2nd round pick I’d be excited about.  That’s if he even reaches the #43 pick, which he probably won’t.

Written by Kip Earlywine

Rundown:   David Wilson is a junior running back from Virginia Tech.  In 2011- his first and only year as the team’s featured back- he posted 1,709 rushing yards, a school record.  He was named ACC player of the year last season.

Age:  20 (June 15, 1991)

Height:  5’10″

Weight:  206

40 time:  4.49

10 yard split:  1.55

3 cone:  7.09

Vertical Jump:  41.00″

Compilation Videos:

vs. Wake Forest

vs. Clemson

vs. Virginia

Positives:

• High top gear
• Strong
• Disciplined (doesn’t deviate from play call often)
• Young
• Productive

Negatives:

• Lacks vision and instincts; robotic
• Stiff, linear running style; not very shifty
• Long strides
• Only explosive or fast when running straight ahead
• Not much of an asset as a blocker or receiver
• Poor ball security

David Wilson is one of, if not the most athletic running backs in the draft- at least among the names you might recognize.  I list vertical jump for some positions as it is believed to correlate well with explosiveness.  Wilson’s 41″ vertical jump was the best out of 67 running backs who attended the combine.  Only two other running backs managed 40″ or more.  Wilson’s 4.49 forty time was roughly 80th percentile among that same group.  His ten yard split and three cone were similarly ranked.  In terms of raw athleticism, it could be argued Wilson is a 1st round talent.  Wilson shows that athleticism on the kind of Golden Tate styled improvised field reversals that cause coaches to lose their hair.  When in the open field, Wilson has an extra gear; in those moments he looks faster than his 4.49 combine time.

Wilson doesn’t break as many tackles as I’d like given his athleticism, but he is strong enough to push defenders for an extra yard.  He doesn’t maximize yardage like Richardson or Polk, but there are moments when his ability to keep his balance and continue a play is impressive.  Despite these gifts and the bounce-it-outside temptation that often comes with them, Wilson remains disciplined as a runner and almost always ends up going where Frank Beamer would want him to.  Wilson follows his blockers consistently, which in the sample I viewed led to an impressive ratio of rushes for gains of four yards or more.

Wilson has his issues, which I will cover in a moment, but time is on his side.  Wilson is one of just a handful of draftable running backs under the age of 21.  Funny enough, the draft’s youngest running back is none other than Trent Richardson- and Wilson is only a month older than Richardson is.  Despite his youth and lack of experience, Wilson was one of the most productive rushers in the country last year.  Only three other running backs finished with more yardage nationally.  Of those three, only LaMichael James has a prayer of being drafted ahead of Wilson.

That said, Wilson is a project at a “you have it or you don’t” position.  Vision, instincts, burst, shiftiness, breaking tackles, having a nose for the endzone… these kind of things are gifts and can’t really be coached.  Its possible that with the benefit of a few more years, Wilson could further hone his craft and make a few improvements*, but I doubt he’ll ever truly discover any of those innate qualities.  When Wilson gets the ball, I already know where he’s going a second before he goes there.  He lacks fluidity and runs to a spot almost like how some system quarterbacks throw to a spot and not to the receiver.

*(improving his blocking and ball security in particular)

Wilson is not especially tall, but he has long legs for his size, and this has in turn given him the curse of being a long stride runner.  Short strides are generally believed to be superior for short distance sprinting, but in the NFL they are useful for other reasons too.  Its easier to make cuts or change direction when your feet are are touching the ground in shorter intervals.  Because of this, Wilson does not look nearly as explosive, shifty, or as athletic on the field as his combine measurables would make you think, and he’s only able to tap into his impressive top gear when he can run in a straight line.

According to Rotoworld, Wilson had 7 fumbles in 290 carries last season and scored poorly in pass protection (he lost a fumble and looked unimpressive in protection in my sampling as well).

In Conclusion:

Ever see a movie that you didn’t really care for, but most people liked it and you figured, “what the heck, why even argue about it?”  That’s pretty much how I feel about David Wilson.  Wilson is a kick returner posing as a running back.  He could end up being a productive NFL back, especially in a “one cut and go” zone blocking system, but he’s not my kind of back.  Seattle may very well feel differently, especially since Marshawn Lynch is under contract for the next four years and Wilson (who is very young) would have plenty of time to improve and develop if drafted by Seattle.  I’d personally give Wilson a 4th round grade, but he will probably be a second rounder- maybe even a second rounder by the Seattle Seahawks.