Author: Rob Staton (Page 304 of 423)

How much should you pay a free agent?

It’s not always obvious.

Sometimes you just have to get it done. It’s why quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers, Matt Stafford, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco all got huge contracts. At some point in the next few months I’d expect J.J. Watt to get a titanic-sized deal.

But other times it just makes financial sense to let the market come to you.

In an ideal the world the Seahawks keep Michael Bennett and Golden Tate.

But they might be forced into letting both find their true worth.

Amid all the talk of discounts and a desire to stay in Seattle, they’ll never get a better chance to cash in.

They just won a Super Bowl. Both players are fairly high profile. In Bennett’s case he’s coming off a monster post-season where he had a huge impact as a pass rusher.

They can walk into a meeting with the Seahawks and name a high price — and it wouldn’t be out of order.

Bennett’s agent can point to the 5-year, $40.5m contract signed by Paul Kruger — a Super Bowl winner last year who also enjoyed a huge post season in Baltimore. Kruger left the Ravens to go to Cleveland, and will earn $8.2m in three of the next four years.

He’s also only three months younger than Bennett.

Tate’s agent can use Brian Hartline as an example. He signed a 5-year contract in Miami worth nearly $31m and for the next four years he’ll earn between $6.2m and $7.5m.

Whether we like it or not, that is the kind of money Tate can expect to command.

To accept smaller offers to stay in Seattle, without testing free agency, would be a huge gift to the Seahawks worthy of the phrase ‘hometown discount’.

So unless the Seahawks are willing to pony up that kind of cash (and they might) both players could easily become free agents.

That in itself would bring about an interesting chess game.

Pete Carroll and John Schneider have allowed players to test the market before. Red Bryant and Brandon Mebane were re-signed after an anxious wait in free agency, with New England and Denver sniffing around.

The reward can be substantial if you get a cheaper deal, but you also run the serious risk of losing key players — or even paying more.

In the end neither Bryant or Mebane came back at a reduced price. Seattle had to pay up.

Yet we only have to look at last year to realise you can save money too.

Everyone expected Bennett and Cliff Avril to get paid. The Seahawks weren’t mentioned as potential suitors — nobody expected either to last long in free agency.

Yet after a battle for Paul Kruger’s signature, the market went flat.

Suddenly Avril was signing a two-year deal in Seattle, and Bennett penned a one year contract. This was all about improving their future market potential. Both players were young enough to have another crack at free agency down the line.

But is the money definitely going to be there now they’ve won a Championship?

Could they actually be considered cogs in an an uber-talented, balanced unit? After all, it’s the secondary that gets most of the attention in Seattle. They’re the ones with the nickname.

Will teams, incorrectly, look at Bennett as just an 8.5-sack guy on a great defense?

It’s not completely unlikely.

Greg Hardy (26 sacks in 2012/13) will be the premium pass rusher in free agency and he’s likely to get the big money offers and the most early interest. Carolina have cap issues, so Hardy won’t be franchised.

When he leaves the board, does it go cold again? Just like a year ago?

Not helping matters is the relative depth available. Michael Johnson, Lamarr Houston, Jared Allen, Everson Griffen, Justin Tuck — other players who will follow Hardy’s lead.

If Bennett is being quoted offers less than the total he was requesting from the Seahawks, you’d have to fancy Seattle’s chances of keeping him at a slightly better price.

Of course the alternative scenario is a team just offers up a nice big contract and Bennett’s packing his bags.

Gus Bradley and the Jaguars have $47.7m in free cap space and should be making him one of their top targets.

Atlanta has $19.2m free even and could make a strong bid as they need a pass rusher.

Bennett’s former Head Coach in Tampa Bay — Raheem Morris — is now the defensive coordinator in Washington. They’ve got $24.9m to play with.

This is the kind of risk facing Seattle if they let Bennett talk to other teams.

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Unlike the pass rush market, receivers are hot property in free agency. The ones who don’t get huge, over-inflated contracts (Mike Wallace) at least get decent money.

Any team breaking in a young quarterback could use Golden Tate.

He’s reliable, he’s a playmaker, he’s physical for his size and he’s a good return man.

Numbers can be deceptive. Anyone who ‘gets’ the Seahawks understands they’ll probably never have one receiver who puts up monster stats.

This offense is about big plays and running the ball. Carroll refers to Wilson throwing around 25 times as perfection. We’ll not see 350-400 yard games with any regularity, and we may never see a Seahawks receiver leading the yardage charts.

Tate’s best year statistically was the 898 yards he recorded in 2013. He managed that from 64 catches. None of the top-ten receivers had less than 82 receptions, while the likes of Antonio Brown had nearly twice as many (110) to put up his 1499 yards.

It’d be interesting to see how he’d fair in a prolific passing offense such as New England’s. Julian Edelman had 1056 yards from 105 receptions. With Tate’s ability in space I wonder how productive he’d be in the Patriots system?

At the same time he’s pretty much perfect for the Seahawks offense. Make the most of your chances, be consistent, compete every day and be an X-Factor. He has a lot of value to Seattle and it’s why John Schneider will make a big push to keep him.

And yet there’s one huge elephant in the room if he wants big money….

It’s a FANTASTIC year for receivers in the draft. Truly exceptional.

If you need a receiver, whatever the type, you’ll find them in this class.

And while Tate, Eric Decker and Jeremy Maclin all have some value — they’re not must-have players. Not when you can get an Odell Beckham Jr or Jarvis Landry for a fraction of the cost.

So while the Seahawks risk losing Tate if he hits the market, they also know an other-wordly receiver class could work in their favour.

If Tate expects to get Hartline-money, he might be unlucky. There’s enough talent in the draft to hammer his value — potentially taking a couple of million off the table.

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Essentially it comes down to this — how much can you afford to gamble on either player?

Bennett for me is a must-sign. He’s just too important to the defense and for the sake of trying to save $2-3m, you just get it done.

Unless his agent constantly moves the goalposts and asks for more, there needs to be a meeting point on a contract to make sure he’s playing the peak years of his career in Seattle.

I truly believe Bennett is a top-10 defensive lineman in the league — and his lack of a defined position and gaudy numbers is making him devastatingly underrated.

No messing around here, I think this could be a formality. These were Ian Rapoport’s words on Super Bowl Sunday:

“Michael Bennett will be re-signed”

His words on Tate?

“They’ll try… if they have space”

I suspect Seattle is thoroughly determined to keep Tate. He gets under the skin of opponents, has consistently won games with big plays and has a lot of chemistry with quarterback Russell Wilson.

Unlike Bennett, however, you can imagine a successful Seahawks team without Tate. They somewhat made their bed by paying Percy Harvin a massive contract. I’d be surprised if they don’t make receiver an early target in the draft just because of the quality available. And we have to assume they’re going to tender Doug Baldwin.

With some heartbreaking decisions forthcoming, Tate might be a player they end up allowing to test the market. And unless they can get him back on a deal worth $3-4m a year, he might be playing elsewhere.

But as we discussed above — don’t rule out that kind of deal because the receiver-rich draft could hurt him.

For me — Bennett gets done before free agency begins on March 11th. Tate tests the market, but could still remain in Seattle.

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Speaking of heartbreaking decisions…

Sportrac have put together a list of 60 potential cap casualties. Sidney Rice, Zach Miller, Chris Clemons and Red Bryant are all named for Seattle.

Here’s the potential saving for each:

Rice — $7.3m

Miller — $5m

Clemons — $7.5m

Bryant — $7.5m

Total — $27.3m

I watched some post-season highlights this weekend. Part of Seattle’s effectiveness with the pass rush was being able to team Bennett and Avril on one side, with Clemons on the opposite edge.

Whatever you think about Clemons’ performance during the regular season, he appeared back to his effective best in the playoffs.

Bryant is assumed as a luxury by most fans, and yet I get the feeling Carroll sees him as integral on early downs. It’s not as simple as plugging a more orthodox 5-tech guy in that position. Bryant’s massive size would also need to be replaced.

Miller has acted more as a terrific blocker in Seattle but he’s made his fair share of catches too. Ideally you keep him, but whatever anyone says he shouldn’t be earning $18m for his efforts in 2013/14. Luke Willson is more of a joker than a blocker and not a natural replacement.

Rice is the nearest thing Seattle has to a #1 receiver. Even with a good group, they need a #1. Out of the four though, I think Rice is the only sure-fire cut.

It’s not beyond the realms of possibility Clemons could be cut and then re-signed at an incredibly low price. The market for 32-year-old pass rushers isn’t great.

I think the team would look to work on Bryant’s and Miller’s contracts simply because they are vital players. But they aren’t irreplaceable like Russell Wilson or Earl Thomas.

If they cleared house and cut all four it’d make for an interesting off-season.

In that scenario they’d have the necessary funds to extend Thomas’ contract, pay Bennett, re-sign the likes of Breno Giacomini and Steven Hauschka, possibly keep Tony McDaniel and/or Clinton McDonald and have a look at what value they can find in free agency.

A new deal for Richard Sherman is also very much on the table.

Of course, you’d also be losing four players who’ve been part of the heart and soul of this team for the last few seasons.

They’d need to be replaced. And it wouldn’t be easy.

Dan Pompei has some interesting notes on Ra-Shede Hageman and Austin Seferian Jenkins, amongst others.

On Hageman: “NFL teams will pepper him with questions about his tough upbringing, his off-field decision-making and an academic suspension. They also want to see what he has to say about being such an inconsistent player.”

On ASJ: “He will be asked about a DUI and a team suspension. But the bigger issue might be Seferian-Jenkins’ inconsistencies on the field. He dominates at times and then disappears. Said one exec, ‘I want to get a feel for if I can trust him.'”

Eric Ebron isn’t lacking in confidence. In an interview with NFL.com, he stated his combination of size and speed should be “illegal”. He also rejected recent rumours that he’d gained weight during the off-season.

Very few players will impress more than Ebron at the combine if he turns up in peak condition. Can he run in the 4.5’s like Jimmy Graham and Jordan Cameron? That seems to be the benchmark for a difference making, pass-catching tight end.

If he’s going to go in the top-15 you get the feeling he’ll need a fast time. Several good tight ends have dropped after running anywhere between 4.6-4.8.

Former Bears GM Jerry Angelo says teams won’t be too concerned with Jadeveon Clowney’s character.

Angelo: “Something people don’t know: In the NFL, at some positions, character is less or more important than it is at other positions. In Clowney’s case, character is less important because of what he does. What Clowney does has rare value, so coaches and personnel people alike will compromise – and, in some cases, prostitute – character for his pass-rush prowess.”

Johnny Manziel doesn’t think he’s going to make it past Jacksonville at #3.

Manziel on the prospect of being snubbed by Houston: “It would be the worst decision they’ve (the Texans) ever made… I’d be in the same division playing against them twice a year. Sorry, but you just turned that chip on my shoulder from a Frito into a Dorito.”

Unless he’s referring to Tennessee at #11, he clearly believes he’s going to the Jags if the Texans pass.

Stuff like this sounds great in a meeting room, when you can look a GM or Head Coach in the eye and make quite an aggressive pitch. It certainly worked for Peyton Manning, who once famously told Bill Polian before the 1998 draft, “‘If you pick me, I guarantee you that we will win a championship and we’ll have a great program here… If you don’t, I’ll come back and I’ll kick your ass.”

Unfortunately this kind of thing doesn’t have quite the same impact when you’re saying it to the media.

Mel Kiper and Todd McShay have re-launched their weekly ‘First Draft’ Podcast for 2014. Give me this pure draft-a-tainment any day over the sycophantic Greg Cosell media love-in which is about to begin any minute now.

Give me strength, and pass me a sick bag.

Finally here’s some more Bashaud Breeland (CB, Clemson) tape (vs Virginia). We had a look at him earlier in the week.

Sometimes it’s good to have another look at a player. Aaron Donald is a great example — my opinion changed dramatically after a more extensive review.

I let myself down by not taking him seriously during the season.

Now, there aren’t many players I’d rank above him going into the combine.

Unfortunately, I’m not quite as excited about the two prospects below after watching more tape this week.

Stephon Tuitt (DL, Notre Dame)

I’m really, really confused by Stephon Tuitt.

He left high school as a 4/5 star recruit, at 6-5 and 252lbs. Scout.com listed ‘athleticism’, ‘speed’ and ‘pass rushing skills’ as plus points, with ‘strength’ and ‘technique’ the two areas he needed to improve.

So when you put on the tape, why are we watching a +300lbs plus monster who doesn’t move well, is a really limited athlete but appears to have decent strength and at least some degree of technique?

It’s like he spent the last few years concentrating way too much on the areas he needed to improve and dropped what made him such an exciting recruit in the first place.

And it’s incredibly frustrating.

He’s listed by ESPN at 6-7 and 322lbs. That’s nose tackle size, and he plays like a nose tackle asked to work the edge. His 2013 tape is sluggish and completely underwhelming. Yet every now and again there’s a little glimmer. He’ll swim past a blocker and burst into the backfield. He was incredibly effective against USC — his one genuinely good game in 2013.

The rest of his tape is nowhere near as enticing.

It’s the USC game that makes you want to tear your hair out. Inside this mammoth frame could be a competent pass rusher. If he was playing at 275-280lbs, you’d probably have a guy who’s big enough to hold up against the run, but he’d also be much quicker — and much sharper.

So why has he got this big? I just don’t get it.

Is it a conditioning issue? Was he encouraged by Notre Dame to add weight?

Whatever the reason, it’s going to hammer his draft stock this year.

In a scenario where he ends up on my team, the first thing I’d want him to do is drop a ton of weight. Re-emphasise the speed while maintaining a frame that is able to defend the run. At 280-285lbs he could pretty much line up at the three technique, the one, as an edge rusher or a five.

Right now I’d probably feel obliged to have him inside or limited to a Red Bryant-style two-down role. But even then, he isn’t Bryant. He doesn’t play with anywhere near the same level of intensity or freakish strength. Anyone thinking this could be a good match for Seattle — essentially a cheaper replacement for the big guy — is probably going to be let down after watching the video below.

Tony Pauline sums up his season in a week-2 blog for DraftInsider.net (following Notre Dame’s game against Michigan): “He looked un-athletic, marginally explosive and was constantly on the ground.”

I have very little interest in Tuitt and I suspect the Seahawks will feel the same way. Unless he shows up in better shape at the combine and puts on a show, he could easily drift. I’m not quite sure why he’s still being projected as a round one pick by some high profile pundits.

Maybe they know something we don’t?

Either way, it aint obvious.

You can see his final game for Notre Dame below, a bowl game against Arizona State. Mike Mayock mentions in the commentary that Tuitt played ‘heavy legged’ this year.

The tape overall is just one great big example of this.

At his current size, he’s just a cumbersome defensive lineman who isn’t special. And I’d say it’d be an upset if he goes much higher than rounds two or three.

Dee Ford (DE, Auburn)

If you browse through the 2013 tape, you’ll find a few games where Ford looks the part.

His display in the BCS Championship was particularly impressive. He gave the FSU offensive line fits, regularly pressured Jameis Winston and finished with two sacks.

They couldn’t deal with his speed off the edge, it was like candy from a baby. If you were watching this game in isolation, you’d get excited. I know I wanted to see more.

How good could this guy be?

That interest grew when he had a big impact at the Senior Bowl — reportedly performing well during work outs and grabbing a couple of sacks in the game.

I dug out his tape against Texas A&M and Alabama — because they are the games scouts will gravitate towards.

Against the Aggies he came up against Cedric Ogbuehi — destined to be a high pick in the 2015 draft and A&M’s latest brilliant tackle.

We all know what to expect from an Alabama line — and once again in 2013 they continued to churn out top-tier talent.

In both games, Ford was pretty much dominated.

He was a complete non factor against the Crimson Tide, recording one tackle and struggling to get off a single block. It was a pretty ugly display to be honest.

Even the tight ends had a lot of success against him. That can’t happen in college.

Right at the end of the A&M game, he makes a couple of sacks. And that looks good on the stat sheet. But on both occasions Johnny Manziel ran straight into him — scrambling into trouble.

The sacks are a deceiving stat, because this battle was very much won by Ogbuehi. Having watched Morgan Moses handle Jeremiah Attaochu earlier in the week, this was a close second in terms of a pure one-sided match between tackle and pass rusher.

If you get Ford in space with a QB in his sights, he can chase them down in the open field. He has good speed — some say as fast as 4.4. He’s a finisher if he can get free.

But that’s the problem — getting free. When he’s asked to take on a competent or experienced tackle, he struggles to shake a block. He doesn’t have the upper body power or hand-use to disengage. He isn’t a great fighter at the line, working to get free and break into the backfield. Ford relies on a very wide starting position and beating his guy for off the edge in a foot race.

Ogbuehi looked like he was playing at a different level.

Every time he just set up his stance and got his hands on Ford — it was over. He’s got a good enough kick step to shadow and counter the speed. This was food and drink until the late mistakes from Manziel gift wrapped the sacks.

Teams are going to gravitate towards these two games and any excitement built up over the Senior Bowl week is going to be tempered.

Some will covet his speed if he does run a really fast time at the combine. I can see him in a wide-9 having some success, albeit as a specialist early on. He’ll likely secure a place in rounds two or three if he shows up well in Indianapolis.

Yet his overall game isn’t good enough to warrant a first round pick. I’m not expecting to project him to Seattle at #32 — even with their penchant for speed off the edge.

He doesn’t have great length or size (barely 6-2, 243lbs) and I’m not sure he’s got the frame to get any bigger. He’s a redshirt senior entering the draft so this might be close to the finished article we’re seeing.

There’s more to being a LEO than pure speed. Cliff Avril isn’t huge at 6-3 and 260lbs — but he’s a more rounded and complete player. He’s big enough and strong enough to use a bull rush and the 4.51 speed is adequate to be an effective edge guy too.

When a blocker gets into his pads — it aint over.

Too often that’s the case with Dee Ford — and he could easily still be around in round three as a consequence. Round two is probably his ceiling — and that’s with a good combine.

If the Seahawks do have interest here, I suspect they’ll probably wait it out. I’m not convinced there’s any reason to target him at #32.

He does have some potential to work in coverage — and he might be a better fit in an orthodox 3-4.

A lot of people see the offensive line as Seattle’s biggest draft need.

The game at St. Louis in week eight really was the tipping point. The Seahawks couldn’t block a thing. Russell Wilson was getting half a second to make a decision, and really they should’ve lost that night.

A terrific defensive stand saved the day, but they won in spite of the offense.

It wasn’t the only game where they struggled as a consequence of bad line play. The Houston win was torrid at times — with a lot of Wilson magic and a Richard Sherman pick-six being the antidote this time.

Across the board the stats weren’t good. The pundits looked at the stats and made their judgement.

“Major changes are needed.”

Unfortunately there’s no column on the stat sheet for ‘devastating injuries‘.

Make no mistake — a lack of health was the big problem with Seattle’s offensive line in 2013.

Not a lack of talent.

Very few teams can survive losing a Pro Bowl left tackle and center. Even fewer teams can survive losing your left tackle, center, right tackle and then having to move your left guard to man the blindside.

They also had a 7th round rookie starting at right tackle for a large chunk of the season.

Forgive me for stating the obvious, but this is not a good thing.

That Seattle had only the second worst offensive line in the NFL should be a major surprise. One team actually had it worse than this?

What on earth were they doing in Miami?

(Well, actually, we know what they were doing in Miami. They were texting each other about hookers and drugs. And then falling out.)

You simply cannot field a starting offensive line of McQuistan, Carpenter, Jeanpierre, Sweezy and Bowie and expect results.

It aint happening.

Not against some of the best pass rushers in the league.

Throw in Pete Carroll’s desire to be the #1 scrambling team in the NFL and you’re going to see some sacks. Whether they’re fielding the greatest offensive line in the league or one of the worst, it’s unavoidable.

A case in point — against New Orleans in the playoffs Wilson was sacked three times. On two of those occasions, the ‘sack’ was a -1 yard rushing attempt by the quarterback.

Peyton Manning doesn’t get many of those.

Speaking of Manning, the reason he was barely hit all year had nothing to do with his offensive line. It’s the style of offense — which is designed to limit the pass rush with a quickfire short passing game.

If Wilson and Seattle used this approach, they too would see a major reduction in sacks.

It’ll never happen of course, because Manning and Wilson are polar opposite players in terms of skill set and size.

Sometimes you just have to accept this is the team the Seahawks are. They’re going to keep scrambling, they’re going to pick up sacks.

And they’re also going to make a ton of big plays with Wilson moving out of the pocket.

This isn’t just about the passing game either — the Seahawks had trouble establishing the run in certain games too.

In 2013 they averaged 4.3 yards a carry and 136.8 yards per game — down from 4.8 YPC and 161.2 YPG.

It’s also indicative of the number of teams who set out to stop Marshawn Lynch and the running game. Many dared Wilson to beat them with his arm.

To be fair, any drop off in the rushing attack is mostly picked up by the passing game. In 2012 they managed 189.4 YPG, and it increased to 202.2 a year later.

The cumulative loss is 12 YPG for the season. Hardly back breaking stuff.

As Wilson develops as a passer (and let’s remember, he’s only two seasons into a long career), I suspect he’ll be become even more productive if teams continue to challenge him by selling out against the run.

We had a taste of that against the Saints in week 13.

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Let’s take a closer look at Seattle’s schedule last year, because this also played a part in Seattle’s perceived struggles up front.

The Rams are fielding two of the best pass rushers in the league right now, including (for me) the absolute #1 in Robert Quinn. According to DVOA, Arizona had the #2 defense in the NFL behind Seattle. Everybody knows how good San Francisco’s front seven is, and the Seahawks were unfortunate to dodge Aldon Smith’s prolonged absence.

That’s six games against rock solid opponents right off the bat, three of which they faced without their preferred starting o-line — including their left tackle.

Here are some other pass rushers they met in 2013 — J.J. Watt, Jared Allen and Robert Mathis. They also tackled three of the better overall units according to DVOA — New York (#6), Tampa Bay (#8) and New Orleans (#10).

This was a tougher than usual schedule for the Seahawks’ o-line. Doing it with three of your starters missing a combined 18 games is a challenge some teams couldn’t overcome.

Even in Seattle’s poorest display of the season — the defeat against Arizona in week 16 — they were missing J.R. Sweezy.

Having missed the injury bug in 2012, it was back with a vengeance in 2013.

I’ll say it again — a lack of health hurt this group. Not a lack of talent.

Avoiding injuries can be a cause for concern itself, but I think the talent level is sufficient that you almost have to invest an element of faith.

I genuinely believe Seattle has a competent offensive line when everyone is good to go.

Russell Okung is one of the better tackles in the NFL — and was described as such after playing 17 games in 2012. He’s got an injury history but they can’t afford to give up on him at this stage in his career. He’s worth persevering with.

Max Unger had a difficult 2013 but never looked truly 100% either. A fresh start and a clean bill of health could get him back to his best.

Breno Giacomini is one of the more underrated players on the roster — and for me deserves to be re-signed on a 2-3 year deal if possible.

J.R. Sweezy gets a bad press at times, but 2013 was only his second year as an offensive lineman and his first as the unquestioned starter. He’s still learning and growing — and there’s no reason to question Tom Cable’s judgement on this one.

Then we have the revolving door at left guard — the area most people see as the problem. James Carpenter has been hit and miss and could even be a cap casualty this off-season. Yet he’s also had big games — most notably when combating Justin Smith.

I’m not sure I’ve seen a guard play as well against Smith over the last couple of seasons. That in itself has some value.

Michael Bowie played well in his only start at left guard, he deputised well for Sweezy on the right side in week 16 and could take on a more prominent role in year two.

Alvin Bailey had a terrific pre-season at left tackle but has the size and movement skills to grow into a top-class guard. It’ll be interesting to see if that’s where he ends up going forward.

This isn’t a bad group — and the 2013 depth of Paul McQuistan, Lemuel Jeanpierre and Caylin Hauptmann also did their job, with McQuistan seeing his fair share of time on the field at guard and tackle.

Despite what the stats say, I challenge anyone to tell me this is one of the worst lines in the NFL based on personnel.

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Really it comes down to this — competing in the NFC West aint easy.

There isn’t an offensive line in the league that can block the four NFC West defenses out of a game.

You’re going to give up some plays against this bunch. I think we can all agree on that.

A lot of people regard San Francisco’s offense line as one of the very best. And yet they couldn’t stop Seattle forcing two forced fumbles in the NFC Championship game, shutting down the run completely and forcing two interceptions.

This is how it’s going to be.

Even if you get Okung, Unger, Sweezy and Giacomini for 16 games next year — and spend a first round pick on a guard — I’m telling you, they aren’t going to shut down Robert Quinn, Calais Campbell, Aldon Smith and co.

The Rams could spend two high first round picks on their offensive line in May. Guess what? They’ll also struggle to stop the other three NFC West teams.

This is a division where elite defensive line play is rife.

Whoever you put out there, it’s not going to be pretty.

Some people will argue — not unfairly — that if you play in such a tough division, upgrading the offensive line where possible is a necessity.

I wouldn’t disagree with that. In fact if this was an excellent guard class, I think you would consider making an early pick if you felt you could really make an upgrade.

I’m not arguing the line is perfect. Far from it. And Seattle sets up its draft board to try and identify where they can make the biggest improvements.

The problem is, it’s a really poor guard class. Borderline horrible.

Players like Cyril Richardson and Gabe Jackson are wildly overrated and will struggle to crack day two of the draft. Richardson is a particularly bad fit for the zone blocking scheme.

David Yankey is this years ‘guard who everyone loves mid-season’. It happens every year. The internet finds a guard, dubs them the next Steve Hutchinson and then the reality check comes around in December/January.

Yankey isn’t terrible, but he is a technician. He looks extremely accomplished in Stanford’s scheme — frequently pulling right and putting his excellent coaching into action.

At the next level however, there’s so much more to it. Physically I’d be concerned he’s going to get seriously overmatched.

Out of all the guards in this class, Xavier Su’a-Filo is really the only one I’d consider in round one — and that’s mainly based on upside. He combines rare athleticism with a nice power base and he could develop into a very accomplished guard.

He also needs to improve his technique and while I think he could go in the first round, many others see him as no more than a late second rounder at best.

Looking at what’s on offer, you’d be reaching for a guard in round one. Maybe even in round two as well depending on who’s left.

I suspect they’ll look for depth and further competition. Let Cable go back to work in the later rounds. That plan has worked so far to an extent. It hasn’t provided a genuine star, but Sweezy, Bailey and Bowie are all young, talented players with the opportunity to keep developing.

They could do with a lineman to replace the (likely) departing McQuistan. I’d also consider signing a veteran left tackle to backup Okung, if the price is right.

And they may concentrate on two other areas early in the draft — continuing to add weapons to the offense (another way to alleviate pressure is to surround Wilson with as much talent as possible) and making sure Seattle’s defensive line is well stocked.

Is there more to be gained by putting a big receiver outside for Wilson to throw to (jump ball/red zone specialist) and having Bailey/Bowie/Carpenter at guard, than there is having a starting offensive line that includes Okung-rookie-Unger-Sweezy-Giacomini and a lesser quality big wide out?

Quite possibly.

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I haven’t covered a year on this blog without people highlighting the offensive line as a need.

I guess when you’ve enjoyed Walter Jones and Steve Hutchinson in the past, it comes with the territory.

It’s also worth remembering how rare those two players were. Trying to recreate those days will be nearly impossible.

While that duo (and a trio of journeyman in the other three spots) carried the Seahawks to their first Super Bowl… the current group finished the job.

And they did it without conceding a single sack.

This is a Seahawks-centric draft board.

Teams don’t often have a long list of players they’d be prepared to take in round one.

They narrow it down, remove players for whatever reason and really zone in on the prospects they want to target.

These are the guys, as of today, I’d put in that first round bracket who I’d be willing to draft at #32.

Some of them obviously won’t be available. But that’s OK. If there’s only one still on the board at the end of the first round, that’s possibly who I’m taking.

It’s also still very early in the process and the combine is going to change so much by the end of the month.

So basically, I reserve the right to completely change my opinion in a month. In fact I’d be surprised if that didn’t happen.

We’re still waiting to find out so much about these players. There’s nothing final about this stage of the year.

And unlike the teams, we only have limited access to information and tape.

Here’s the list. I’ll have a new mock out tomorrow.

#1 Jadeveon Clowney (DE, South Carolina)
We can only dream what it’d be like to have a player like Clowney in Seattle’s defensive rotation. Imagine that. They might be unstoppable.

#2 Greg Robinson (T, Auburn)
If you knew you had a shot at Robinson, you wouldn’t re-sign Breno Giacomini. Aside from his sensational athletic upside, Auburn’s star player from 2013 is already a terrific run blocker.

#3 Sammy Watkins (WR, Clemson)
He’s not the big receiver this team lacks, but how can you not put him here? Just an incredible player with a big future.

#4 Mike Evans (WR, Texas A&M)
Watch him work back to Johnny Manziel and win endless jump balls to see this is a scrambling quarterbacks dream receiver.

#5 Taylor Lewan (T, Michigan)
The Seahawks want to run the ball. Aside from Robinson at #2, there isn’t another tackle in the draft who plays the run like Lewan.

#6 Aaron Donald (DT, Pittsburgh)
I don’t care about the size. The fact is he lives in the backfield and he’s an absolute nightmare to block. Geno Atkins-style potential.

#7 Kelvin Benjamin (WR, Florida State)
The drops frustrate the heck out of you, but there’s no denying he could be brilliant at the next level. Ideal size for a classic #1 receiver.

#8 Cyrus Kouandjio (T, Alabama)
He’s being knocked for two bad games against Virginia Tech and Oklahoma. I still really like his potential.

#9 Eric Ebron (TE, North Carolina)
Ebron could be the next big-time tight end. Needs to be coached up, and it might take a year. Long term upside is through the roof. Let’s hope he runs well in Indy.

#10 Brent Urban (DT, Virginia)
If he wants to be great, he could be great. Get him in the weight room and try to turn him into J.J. Watt-lite.

#11 Morgan Moses (T, Virginia)
The Seahawks like length, long arms and size. Moses has the lot and could end up being a fast riser over the next few weeks.

#12 Ra’Shede Hageman (DT, Minnesota)
Think about what a player can become, not what he is now. In a rotation with pro-coaching, Hageman could be superb. 6-6, 318lbs — he has the size Seattle loves.

#13 Anthony Barr (DE, UCLA)
Excellent length and the hope is he runs well at the combine. But he has so much work to do on his technique. Could crash and burn in the NFL.

#14 Marqise Lee (WR, USC)
Not the big receiver Seattle needs, but he’s a former Pete Carroll recruit with such an infectious spark to his game. A warrior.

#15 Brandon Coleman (WR, Rutgers)
Coleman has the size and athletic potential to be big time. But he’s not the finished product and needs to convince teams he has the desire to max out his talent.

#16 Antonio Richardson (T, Tennessee)
Massive tackle prospect who could play guard or right tackle. Long arms, 6-6 and 330lbs. Has a nasty streak, a bit like Anthony Davis.

#17 Dee Ford (DE, Auburn)
LEO pas rusher looks like a long term succession process in Seattle. If Ford runs a 4.4 at the combine he’ll be interesting.

#18 Zack Martin (T/G, Notre Dame)
Just a superb technician, but he’s also a better athlete than he gets credit for. Short arms, might be better at guard.

#19 Allen Robinson (WR, Penn State)
Not a burner by any means and that could be costly. But he’s a YAC specialist not to mention a terrific competitor with excellent character.

#20 Davante Adams (WR, Fresno State)
Not huge (6-2, 212lbs) but maybe big enough. Fantastic character. Is he special? I’m trying to work that out.

#21 Xavier Su’a-Filo (G, UCLA)
The only alternative to Zack Martin I’d consider in round one. He’s a really good athlete whose best football lies ahead.

Big name players not on the list:

Any quarterback — they aren’t replacing Russell Wilson, are they?

Jake Matthews — just not sure he’s what this team looks for in a tackle.

Khalil Mack — he’ll probably run a 4.6 at the combine and where does he fit in this defense?

Timmy Jernigan — never been that impressed with his play. Looked dead on his feet at the end of the BCS Championship game.

C.J. Mosley — love the guy, but Seattle doesn’t need a linebacker like this.

Kony Ealy — a player I will do more study on, but I don’t get the hype based on what I’ve seen so far.

Smaller receivers (eg Odell Beckham, Brandin Cooks) — does the team need another sub-6-0 receiver?

Jace Amaro — I want to see him run at the combine. I fear another Gavin Escobar-esque time.

Safety’s/corners — wait until later in the draft

And finally…

Never underestimate the value of a good owner.

Clemson’s Breeland one to watch?

Walter Thurmond is a free agent this year, and Brandon Browner’s time in Seattle appears to be up.

Byron Maxwell has one year left on his contract and could be a leading free agent in 2015 if he continues to start and play well.

If all three players eventually move on, it’ll leave Richard Sherman (assuming he’s re-signed), Jeremy Lane and Tharold Simon.

Unless the likes of Thurmond are kept on, we should expect another corner to be drafted at some point.

The Seahawks have consistently gone after cornerbacks in the later rounds and so far they’ve been able to find some real gems.

But as Super Bowl Champions, they have to expect other teams are going to start trying to copy their style.

Some of the players who previously would’ve been available in the middle or later rounds might go earlier as a consequence.

That doesn’t mean the Seahawks are going to start reaching for this position. I think they see themselves as ‘cornerback city’, capable of consistently taking players off the production line and developing them into starters.

It’s not just about finding any corner with length and plugging him in. Pete Carroll is a secondary guru with decades of experience, while Rocky Seto is one of the great unsung heroes in Seattle.

Other teams can try and mimic the Seahawks, but they’ll need the same level of coaching to make it work.

The combine will uncover some potential mid-to-late round targets and it’s an area we’ll look into at the end of the month.

Clemson’s Bashaud Breeland is one player to monitor.

He’s a former four star recruit who played safety and quarterback before switching to corner in college. I’ve seen him listed anywhere between 6-0 and 6-3, but on his recruitment page on Scout.com he’s down as 6-2.

Here’s the blurb on his evaluation:

Breeland is a long defensive back that is a good cover guy. At a combine, he would get behind a little off the line, but his closing speed may be his best trait. He really closes on the ball well and after being behind the receiver. He has long arms, a rangy body, great closing speed, has good instincts, and he really plays under control.

Long corners who cover well seem to interest the Seahawks.

Here’s some tape against NC State from 2013:

It’s difficult to judge cornerbacks without all-22 tape. Most of the time they’re off screen. It’s often difficult to see whether a quarterback goes away from the read because of the coverage.

I’ve tried to break down certain plays but yeah, it’s tough.

At 0:27 he gets beat down the right DEF sideline. I think the receiver runs a good route and he’s forced to try and recover. A bad throw bails him out.

At 1:27 we see what looks like the kind of play that’ll interest Seattle. He’s physical at the top of the route and basically takes the receiver out of the game. No flag, so I guess you’d call it perfect coverage.

He could’ve had an interception at 4:21 with nice downfield shadowing. The quarterback underthrows the ball and Breeland is in position to make the play. He should probably get that one.

Kudos to the ref for a great pick play at 4:36.

He flashes nice tight coverage at 5:13 and ends the game with a Hail Mary pick at the end.

Right now Breeland’s being touted as a second or third rounder. It’s not a great class for corners, so a good work out in Indianapolis could propel him up draft boards.

Are the Seahawks going to draft Breeland? Not if he goes in that range. I’m not sure he’s good enough to warrant that level of investment, and they’ve shown they can find players from all kinds of backgrounds later on.

Even if Thurmond departs, I’m intrigued by the potential of Tharold Simon if he can stay healthy and get a full camp under his belt.

As teams set about trying to copy Seattle, I think Breeland ends up getting overdrafted. If he slips a little, then he could be someone they look at.

Senior rankings, Moses impressive

I’ve spent a bit of time this week going over some of the videos of the Senior class, namely those who appeared at the Senior Bowl.

For me it’s pretty clear who the top players are who appeared in Mobile:

#1 Aaron Donald (DT, Pittsburgh)
#2 Zack Martin (T, Notre Dame)
#3 Morgan Moses (T, Virginia)
#4 Brent Urban (DT, Virginia)
#5 Ra’Shede Hageman (DT, Minnesota)
#6 Dee Ford (DE, Auburn)

I know Dee Ford had a great Senior Bowl game, but I’m still trying to work out where he fits. He didn’t do any linebacker drills in Mobile and consistently lined up in the widest wide-9 I think I’ve ever seen.

There’s talk he could run a 4.4 at the Combine and he’s someone to watch closely, without doubt. But on tape he’s hit and miss and I want to see just how much of an athlete he really is.

The one who surprised me the most was Moses at #3.

I’d read reports last October suggesting he’d endured a slow start  to the season and his stock was falling. I actually put on the tape mostly to see how Jeremiah Attaochu faired against him when Virginia played Georgia Tech.

This was a one-sided domination, in favour of Moses.

He flashed superb footwork and movement for his size (6-6, 320lbs). He smothered Attaochu whenever he engaged and wasn’t beaten once for speed off the edge.

Take a look for yourself…

Moses looked like a genuine left tackle prospect in the game, and further tape study backed that up.

Whether he’ll look quite as comfortable against NFL lineman remains to be seen and he could end up at right tackle — the position most people have him tagged at.

For me, if I was a team picking later on (Miami at #19, Arizona at #20 or New Orleans at #27) I’d happily take him with a view to putting him at left tackle.

Aside from the list above one other player caught my eye (although I’ve only watched one game so far). Northern Illinois safety Jimmie Ward is an unlikely target for the Seahawks, but I’m intrigued to see more. Good cover safety.

And I’m loathe not to mention the guy at the top of the list — Aaron Donald.

Man, how did I get it so wrong with this guy with my first take?

With every fresh game I watch, the more I like him. The guy is insanely good. I really hope it works out for him at the next level — whether he’s in Seattle or not, I want to see this type of defensive tackle make it in the NFL.

Relentless, consistently in the backfield, stout and powerful with a wonderful swim move.

He has to be Geno Atkins. Has to be. If he isn’t, let’s forget about finding another Atkins. We’ll leave it to chance in future.

As much as the Seahawks want size up front (and they need it to match up with the likes of San Francisco), it’s hard not to imagine how good the defense could be with a guy like Donald rushing inside.

If a lack of size keeps him on the board (and for me he’s easily a top-20 pick, but you never know), then they have to pull the trigger. Even with a similar type of player (Jordan Hill) already on the roster.

Donald is just too good.

Futures deals

Free agent tight end Travis Beckum posted on his Instagram today that he was now a member of the Seahawks.

Linebacker Mike Taylor was also added.

Both players featured for Wisconsin in college.

Beckum was a third round pick in 2009 and had four largely unsuccessful seasons with the New York Giants. Taylor struggled with a sports hernia during his rookie year and spent time on Seattle’s practise squad last season.

Do we talk enough about development?

Are we obsessed with looking for the finished article, or as close to the finished article as possible?

When I say ‘we’, I mean everybody who follows the draft. Pundits, experts, fans and writers.

If following this teams’ road to glory has taught us anything, it’s probably that we should expand our horizons.

We should be looking at what a prospect can become, not what he is right now.

Has a player got the potential to be great?

Will he embrace the need to work on his flaws in order to max out his talent?

If the answer to both is yes, get the cigars out.

Essentially it comes down to this. Good coaches can always work on technical flaws, strength and conditioning, bad habits or even a lack of experience.

What you can’t teach is physical brilliance.

We need to avoid lingering too much on things that can be fixed. We shouldn’t ignore certain issues, but we also shouldn’t be consumed by them.

As long as the player is keen to work on improving, we should embrace a guy who doesn’t do everything right in college. Especially if he has a high enough ceiling to be really good.

I think this is something the Seahawks do better than most teams. It certainly seems that way.

So many clubs write players off because they don’t fit the prototype, or they concentrate on the flaws.

Seattle didn’t do that when they drafted 5-10 Russell Wilson. Seattle didn’t do that with most of the players they’ve drafted to be fair.

They selected guys with grit, the upside to be great and they worked them into their system.

And yet I think we’re seeing a lot of draft talk again this year that flies against that.

We’re a pretty ‘safe’ bunch, those of us who follow the draft religiously.

Let’s be more daring.

I’ll kick us off.

I’m not sure why anyone would draft Teddy Bridgewater ahead of Johnny Manziel.

Bridgewater is a technically gifted player. He’s pretty good.

I’d consider spending a first round pick on him if I needed a quarterback, but I’m not overly excited by his tape. He does a lot of things well, but what does he do that is ‘great’?

Manziel on the other hand is the ultimate playmaker. He doesn’t fit any prototype. He lacks ideal height and he goes partying in college.

He doesn’t always say and do the right things. He takes chances on and off the field.

But what a challenge. Why wouldn’t you want to take that on?

Imagine if you made it work. Wouldn’t that be something?

Wouldn’t you back yourself as a Head Coach to develop Manziel into something akin to what we’ve seen with Russell Wilson in Seattle? In Houston — with all the weapons they already have on offense plus a running game, could you not turn him into a quality point guard capable of explosive plays?

Sure, he needs to do a better job looking after the football. He can read the field better. He can improve his core strength.

But what about all the things he does well?

For me Houston are in a privileged position with the #1 pick. They should be grabbing Manziel or coming up with a contingency at quarterback so they can draft another player with unlimited upside — Jadeveon Clowney.

So why do I get a bad feeling they’re going to fudge this and take Blake Bortles or Teddy Bridgewater?

They’d justify a move like that as minimising risk. I’d call it betting against yourself to develop a rare talent.

Embrace what is different.

Embrace coaching and development.

I’d love to know why so many pundits put Manziel in the top five of their mock drafts, but only in the 20-30 range on their big boards. Or lower.

What are they scared of?

You see things like, “someone is going to fall for Manziel” like it’s a bad thing.

I’m happy to admit I wouldn’t have always written these words, but Seattle’s rampant success has really opened my eyes to the idea of development being king, along with upside + work ethic.

That means looking at what a player can become, not what he is now.

And this is why I really like Brandon Coleman and Kelvin Benjamin for Seattle.

Neither is the finished product. Both had their issues in college.

Coleman struggled in a lousy passing offense at Rutgers, but also didn’t do enough to elevate his team. He can certainly do a better job high pointing the football.

Benjamin had too many mental errors at Florida State, including some horrific drops.

And yet look at them. Coleman is 6-6 and 220lbs and runs like a train. Benjamin is 6-5 and around 230lbs and couldn’t look any better in uniform.

Imagine what they could become. Think about it. With this coaching staff working with them.

Really the only thing to be wary of is bad information in terms of their work rate. I’ve not seen any negative reports online, but we don’t get anywhere near the same info the teams get so it’s hard to judge.

Assuming that’s not an issue — I say go for the home run.

It’s not just about two receivers either. Another player who comes to mind is Brent Urban.

He has an injury history, his stats don’t register at all. He plays three technique at 6-7 and 298lbs.

Urban is different.

But he has rare size and speed, an ability to push the pocket and work against the run. He can grow as a pass rusher and could be one of the steals of the draft.

There’s also Ra’shede Hageman — a guy with some character issues and a ton of inconsistent tape.

Coach him up, put him on an already talented defensive line and let him rush the passer. If he has the desire to be the best, he’ll go a long way in Seattle.

If we’re willing to think about what is possible, there are players out there who can help keep this team at the top.

This draft class excites me.

Not because it’s jam packed with players ready to trot off the production line and contribute.

It’s because there are a handful of players other teams are going to overlook and the Seahawks are going to capitalise.

Just like they have for the last four years.

This is worth watching too…