Author: Rob Staton (Page 363 of 423)

Mock draft day tomorrow with only three more projections to go until April 26th. For the meantime here are three items of interest…

Softy at KJR conducted an interview with GM John Schneider which you can download by clicking here. Among the topics discussed include the recent speculation from Tony Pauline touting Mark Barron as a first round option for Seattle (and moving Kam Chancellor to linebacker in the process).

NFL.com’s ‘First Draft’ series takes a look at Whitney Mercilus and George Iloka. We know that Boise State safety Iloka is one of many prospects to visit Seattle recently. This week we looked at Mercilus as an option for the Seahawks if they’re searching for a specialist pass rusher to play a similar role to Aldon Smith in San Francisco.

JMPasq has provided game tape for Melvin Ingram vs Vanderbilt. If the Seahawks go a different route to the pass rushing specialist – essentially an aggressive SLB who plays as a hybrid DE/OLB – Ingram and Courtney Upshaw are both very realistic options.

A minor upset at #7 with the Jacksonville Jaguars taking Michael Floyd. In the closest vote so far, Floyd (43%) narrowly beat out Quinton Coples (41%). I can certainly see the Jaguars going receiver in round one as they look for a way to boost Blaine Gabbert’s performances in year two. Would Gene Smith take a receiver that early? Especially one with Floyd’s off-field problems? Or is this the SDB community saying it believes owner Shahid Khan will be having most of the influence on Jacksonville’s draft?

Let’s move on to #8 and the Miami Dolphins…

A lot of people expect Miami to draft Ryan Tannehill here. The Dolphins struck out on Peyton Manning and seemingly had little interest in Matt Flynn. Tannehill’s coach at Texas A&M – Mike Sherman – is now the offensive coordinator in Miami. This is a team that needs some direction at quarterback.

Even so, is it really such a guarantee that Tannehill will go at #8? A lot of people – myself included – aren’t sold on Tannehill as a top-ten selection. The Dolphins may feel it’s a bit of a risky choice, especially given the team’s limited options at receiver and the need to keep building the offensive line. They’ve scheduled a visit with Brock Osweiler and could also look at Kirk Cousins and Brandon Weeden as options beyond the first round. If they’re not 100% sold on Tannehill, they could use the Cincinnati/Andy Dalton route and take a quarterback later on. Tannehill is still the favorite to go #8 overall, but it’s not a foregone conclusion. And let’s not forget, Matt Moore did a decent job as the starter at the end of last season.

What are the alternatives? You’d expect pass rushers to be on the agenda. It’s still not clear exactly what defense Miami will use and it could end up being a bit of a 4-3/3-4 hybrid. Both Quinton Coples and Melvin Ingram are scheme diverse and available in this mock. Alternatively, the Dolphins may choose to bolster their offensive line with Riley Reiff given they’ll be coming up against Mario Williams twice a season for the next few years. Over to you…

(polls)

Five days ago I reported on Twitter that Chandler Harnish would be visiting Seattle:

Today, the player confirmed the visit via his own Twitter account and posted the picture at the top of this blog post showing the team’s now famous ‘welcome’ to any visiting prospects.

I like Harnish and wrote this article in early January suggesting he could be a sleeper for the Seahawks: “There’s an awful lot to like here. Even at the collegiate level his drops backs are crisp and sharp – an underrated feature. It’s not so much the footwork either, which is good, but rather the way he scans the field while stepping back. There were several instances against Arkansas State, Toledo and Army where you can see Harnish looking downfield as he sets, switching from one option to another and making a completion. Although he’s a long way off the kind of technical qualities we see from Matt Barkley, he’s certainly a cut above the majority of college QB’s I’ve watched this year.”

It’s that technical quality that really stood out as a potential difference maker at the next level. He’s a good athlete, he will make plays with his legs. In terms of a character, just search Youtube for one of his interviews and you’ll notice he’s extremely switched on. But it’s that ability to go from one target, to the second, to come back to the initial read on a developing route which intrigues me. Arm strength isn’t at the ideal level and he’ll need to drive the ball with greater velocity downfield. At the same time, on short/intermediate routes he shows enough strength to make it passable at this stage in his career.

He had some big games for Northern Illinois, including some highlight plays (see below). Harnish is only 6-1 and a lack of elite competition will ensure he’s in the later round bracket. He may even be a priority UDFA signing . However, the Seahawks are likely to spend a pick in the round 4-6 range on a quarterback and they could certainly do a lot worse than the Northern Illinois QB.

Gil Brandt has an updated ‘hot 100’ list at NFL.com. If you want an idea on who will get an invite to New York for the draft, it’s worth checking the top names listed here – Brandt has a lot of say in who attends. Courtney Upshaw and Brock Osweiler – two prospects that have created a lot of debate on this blog – both received invites. Upshaw is ranked #16 overall, Osweiler is at #35.

Jon Gruden’s QB camp features Osweiler tonight on ESPNU at 17:30 EST. To see a sample clip, click here.

Tony Pauline lists his ‘risers’ after the busy pro-day schedule, a list that includes Marshall defensive end Vinny Curry. Pauline: “Curry’s combine workout was disappointing and bordered on awful. To his credit, he looked like a different athlete at the Marshall pro day. His 40 time of 4.67 was a full .2 seconds better than his mark from Indianapolis and he bettered his vertical jump by 3 ½ inches. He’s considered a terrific pass rusher and a good athlete. The combination could push Curry into the first round.”

Danny Kelly at Field Gulls has written a piece on John Schneider and Seattle’s direction under their GM. Kelly: “He’s well-organized and methodical, not afraid to explore every angle and avenue for player acquisition, and he does the legwork involved to give the franchise the best chance possible to strike when the iron is hot on certain players. This has allowed them to identify and acquire some key players like Clemons and Lynch, Washington and Brandon Browner. Obviously, not all of their moves work out, but they’re anything but complacent when it comes to building depth and adding talent.”

Adam Teicher at the Kansas City Star has a mock draft with a few interesting picks. It’s also the first non-Seattle based projection that has Courtney Upshaw to the Seahawks. Teicher on Upshaw: “Equally skilled against the run as he is against the pass.”

Albert Breer also has a new mock, with the Seahawks drafting Fletcher Cox at #12. Following the signing of Jason Jones, I just cannot picture the Seahawks drafting a defensive tackle. Breer: “The defensive tackle spot is muddled at the top. My guess is John Schneider goes for the guy with the best tape, which is Cox.”

Below I’ve added game tape on two mid-round pass rushers, Bruce Irvin and Jack Crawford. Tape courtesy of JMPasq.

Von Miller had 11.5 sacks as a rookie, but also played well against the run

When I wrote a piece exploring how Courtney Upshaw or Melvin Ingram could be used as a hybrid DE/OLB ‘elephant’, it received a mixed response. Some agreed, others not so much. I still believe the Seahawks intend to draft a pass rusher in the first round, and that they’ll want that player to have an impact immediately. I wanted to look at two successful first round picks from last year to try and determine what it is exactly Seattle is looking for.

I found this article, published by Derek Pease just before week 16. It detailed different statistics for Aldon Smith (7th overall pick for San Francisco) and Von Miller (2nd overall pick for Denver). Neither team runs a defense directly comparable to Seattle’s 4-3 under/hybrid – Denver’s is closer to an orthodox 4-3 while the 49ers are a pure 3-4. Even so, the way the two teams used their first round picks is still interesting.

Smith had 14 sacks as a rookie, just 0.5 away from the NFL record for a first-year pro. He achieved that number playing largely in a nickel role, taking just 446 snaps prior to week 16 compared to Von Miller’s 823. Pease: “Could Smith have challenged Miller for Defensive Rookie Of The Year honors if he was a player with an every-down role? Or have the 49ers maximized his potential by limiting him to nickel situations and not putting him in bad spots (against the run) where he might struggle?”

It’s an interesting concept, and there are similar players in the 2012 draft class who could deal with the same issues. Illinois pass rusher Whitney Mercilus isn’t great against the run, but he showed in 2011 he can get to the quarterback. I’ve had real difficulty working out Mercilus this year – he’s a bit of an enigma. You can’t argue with the production, but the tape doesn’t flash a consistently dominating pass rusher. Yet he still made plays. I’ve seen him struggle at times to disengage against tight ends, but he’s also shown the ability to set up a tackle and work to develop an opening. Very few college pass rushers have that in their locker.

If the Seahawks took a player like Mercilus, they wouldn’t want him playing the edge opposite Clemons – two under sized defensive ends would be asking for trouble. They also want to keep Red Bryant at end, given he’s now the highest paid defensive player on the roster. Just like Aldon Smith, a prospect like Mercilus would be limited as a rookie to nickel pass rushing situations. The big question would be whether he’d have enough snaps to utilise the talent just emphasised – to set up a tackle and work out a way to the QB. Is he explosive enough – as Smith proved – to be an impact pass rusher on obvious passing downs? Would there still be a way for Seattle to manufacture pressure? San Francisco would use Justin Smith to take out two blockers, having Aldon Smith hook around the team’s defensive MVP to exploit 1vs1 match-ups. He dominated in those situations. The Seahawks could try and do the same behind Bryant and Jason Jones, although obviously neither will ever warrant the same attention as Justin Smith.

The NFL has often been described as a copycat league and it makes sense that teams will be hunting to emulate the success the 49ers had in drafting Smith. The Seahawks had a front row seat in the NFC West to watch how San Francisco regularly churned out an elite pass rush, and they were probably jealous. Raheem Brock is unlikely to be retained, opening up a spot for a specialist pass rusher. If the Seahawks are serious about finding their version of Aldon Smith, it opens up the possibility of drafting a Mercilus, a Vinny Curry or an Andre Branch. Whether that’s their intention remains to be seen.

Seattle’s defense is set up to play strong against the run. Drafting a player who won’t be able to play a large number of snaps because of issues in run defense kind of goes against what the team has been preaching. Although Seattle’s main aim is almost certainly to increase their QB pressure in this draft, are they going to go the specialist route? As successful as San Francisco were with their choice last year, it’s still quite an early pick to spend on a prospect who will feature in about half the team’s defensive snaps as a rookie. Trying to copy the 49ers just doesn’t seem like a very Pete Carroll-type move given the Seahawks penchant for being unique. But it could be an option, particularly if the first eleven picks fall a certain way.

Pease’s breakdown (Aldon Smith)

Total snaps: 446

Run defense: 100

Pass defense: 346

Pass coverage: 37

Von Miller was an every down player for Denver, featuring strongly against both the run and pass. According to Pease, he almost doubled the number of snaps seen by Aldon Smith by week 16 (823 vs 446) and was used fairly evenly across the board. While Smith was guarded against the run, Miller defended the pass just twelve more times than the run (365 vs 353). Pease: “Miller is much more than a one-trick pony, playing nearly every down on defense and handling run-stopping and pass coverage duties with equal aplomb. Together with pass-rush demon Elvis Dumervil, Miller has led the Broncos’ defense back to respectability.”

Imagine the Seahawks do draft an Upshaw or Ingram. Von Miller played defensive end for Texas A&M but always projected to linebacker at the next level. Both Upshaw and Ingram played most of their college snaps at end, but could transition to a more versatile role in the NFL. Look at Pease’s final sentence above and subtract Elvis Dumervil for Chris Clemons, and it’s easy to see how the Seahawks might go in a similar direction.

Of course this is the moment people point out that neither Upshaw or Ingram are Von Miller. Neither will be the #2 overall pick. Neither flashed the scintillating combine performance or had the kind of production Miller enjoyed in college. The thing is, the Seahawks aren’t picking second overall. And although many people expect the #12 pick to provide some kind of elite talent, it’s really just a run-of-the-mill mid-first rounder. Seattle can’t expect to find a Von Miller in that range, but they might be able to find a player who can do the same kind of job, just with a different skill set.

It’s interesting to note that of Miller’s 823 snaps prior to week 16 last season, 13% were in coverage situations. Despite the raw athleticism and high potential to play brilliantly in coverage, not even a fifth of Miller’s snaps before the final two regular season games were in coverage. It’s often a point of contention when discussing Upshaw’s (and even Ingram’s) ability to play a similar role. If the Seahawks are looking for someone who can get to the quarterback (like Miller) but predominantly play well against both the pass and the run, then it’s not such a ridiculous idea. For the 10-15% of coverage responsibility Seattle might be looking at, would it not be possible to manufacture this situation to make it less of an issue? To stop a less mobile DE/OLB such as Upshaw being exploited? Or would you just put that responsibility on the player and live with it for the effectiveness vs the run/pass?

Miller, Upshaw and Ingram are all different players. All have different strengths, all have certain weaknesses. But is it such a ridiculous concept to believe all could play a similar position and role at the next level?

Pease’s breakdown (Von Miller)

Total snaps: 823

Run defense: 353

Pass defense: 365

Pass coverage: 105

Again we go back to the copycat nature of the league. Maybe Seattle is looking for their version of Aldon Smith, or maybe they’re trying to find someone who can play a role loosely similar to Miller in Denver? The NFL is becoming less and less about fitting round pegs into round holes. Teams will look for an edge, a way to do things differently and create a match-up problem. Conventional thinking, particularly when it comes to the pass rush and defensive line, is a thing of the past. Why else are the Seahawks using an undersized DE in space in a four-man front with a giant 330lbs behemoth playing the other end position? It’s the main reason why I think we should expect some ‘thinking outside of the box’ in round one for the Seahawks. What some people consider to be poor scheme fits, might be more realistic than you think. We may not truly understand the role of Seattle’s new rookie until he takes the field.

We’re counting up to the #12 pick where we’ll extend the options and open up the debate for Seattle. 82% of the votes sent Justin Blackmon to the Rams, well clear of second placed Riley Reiff (9%). Whatever combination occurs in the top six, there’s unlikely to be too many surprises. Things become a little less obvious from #7 onwards.

The Jaguars are difficult to figure out. GM Gene Smith received a new contract and appeared to be receiving the backing of the team’s new owner, yet rumours persist that Smith may leave after the draft. Shahid Khan instructed his staff to negotiate with Denver for Tim Tebow, a move instigated purely by ownership. Just twelve months after trading up for Blaine Gabbert, there is no way Smith had any desire to trade for Tebow. So who’s making the decisions here?

If it’s Smith, expect one of two things. Either he’ll take someone to support his investment in Gabbert (receiver or offensive tackle), or a high motor defensive lineman to improve the team’s pass rush. If it’s Khan, he’ll probably look for the flashiest player who can help sell tickets. The move for Tebow screamed ticket sales, pure and simple.

There may be a happy medium – drafting a receiver to aid Gabbert, while getting a player who will help sell tickets. Justin Blackmon would be ideal but he’s off the board at #6. Swapping places with Tampa Bay or Cleveland is a possibility, but we’re not projecting trades in this mock. Michael Floyd is the next man in line, but will Smith buy into the character issues that have dogged the talented receiver at Notre Dame?

There are Smith and Khan picks on the defense too. Smith may prefer the solid, high motor types in Courtney Upshaw and Melvin Ingram. Khan may prefer the eye-popping physical potential of Quinton Coples. So who’s the pick?

(polls)

An option in rounds 2/3 for Seattle?

Morris Claiborne is headed to Tampa Bay after receiving 86% of the votes for the #5 pick. Justin Blackmon was a distant second with 6%. So far the draft is going according to general thinking, with the top five looking like this:

#1 Indianapolis Colts – Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford)

#2 Washington Redskins – Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor)

#3 Minnesota Vikings – Matt Kalil (OT, USC)

#4 Cleveland Browns – Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama)

#5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU)

Let’s move on to St. Louis at #6…

With Justin Blackmon still on the board, most people would expect the Rams to draft the Oklahoma State wide receiver. I still believe it’s quite high for a player not comparable to AJ Green or Julio Jones in terms of physical potential, but Sam Bradford needs a legitimate target. Blackmon has a lot of body control and enjoyed mass-production in college. He’ll tend to have one ugly mistake per game, but he’s also very competitive with that ‘alpha male’ streak you want in a top receiver.

With two picks early in round two, the Rams need to weigh up whether they can still find a top receiver later on. Of the other options listed here, no others scream better value than Blackmon. Expect the Rams to contemplate further trade options to accumulate more picks ahead of a major rebuild.

If they don’t move down and just aren’t interested in Blackmon, Jeff Fisher could look to bolster both lines. They need an interior defensive line presence to compliment the edge rushers they’ve drafted in recent years. Dontari Poe could be asked to lose weight to fit into a three-technique role in the NFL – it might actually be his best position. I prefer Fletcher Cox as a pure 3-4 end, but he could still receive interest in the 4-3. Riley Reiff is the best tackle left on the board and would provide a book-end for Roger Saffold. Right tackle at #6? Seems a bit of a luxury, but Fisher always had great offensive lines in Tennessee.