Author: Rob Staton (Page 373 of 422)

Sports Broadcaster, Journalist and creator of Seahawks Draft Blog in 2008.

Robert Griffin III vs Washington & draft notes

January 3, 2012 / Rob Staton

Yesterday I wrote a piece contemplating a scenario where Robert Griffin III was within reach for the Seahawks. Although many people expect Griffin to be drafted in the top-five, we looked at situations that could make it possible for Seattle to initiate a modest trade up the board – possibly with Carolina at #8 – to draft their quarterback. Today I wanted to highlight Griffin’s most recent (and likely final) appearance for Baylor, a 67-56 shoot-out against Washington.

There’s an awful lot to like about Griffin and the most attractive quality is the giant leap he made in 2012 to become a legitimate pro-prospect. He’s made tangible progress every year as a starter, evetually winning the Heisman for his efforts in 2011. Aside from a high level of athletic talent, Griffin has clearly worked on his craft and become a much more accomplished passer. He’s currently enjoying the kind of hype that helps a draft prospect almost as much as the tape. Fans want Griffin on their team, executives know he’ll not only sell tickets but also a lot of other merchandise. He has a very marketable nickname in ‘RG3’ and companies will want to be associated with the team that owns such an asset.

It’s going to be very easy to look beyond any negative issues. Yet, as with every young quarterback, they exist within Griffin’s game. The positives are obvious and contained within two plays in the tape above (provided by JMPasq). At 0:12 you can see the way he runs right on the edge of his own end zone, then delivering a wonderful pass with top-end arm strength and accuracy to beat two defensive backs. He’s made eye-catching plays like that all season. At 2:57, we see his running ability and that elusive quality to avoid tackles and break off a big play for a touchdown. He’ll do that at the next level and it’ll offer a different dimension to an offense. It’s also, potentially, at the heart of one of Griffin’s issues.

You’ll see several examples in the tape where he gets happy feet. At times he was bailing on passes too early after one read and trying to make similar highlight-reel plays on the ground. For the most part this season I’ve found his footwork on drop backs to be a bigger problem than anxiety in the pocket, but this is something teams will have to study. Griffin is going to need to learn a pro-drop back (nothing new for a college quarterback), he’s going to have to take less steps in order to set and throw. Teams might also need to work out if they’re drafting a player who will stay patient and scan the field, allowing for plays to develop. I want to see improvisation from a young quarterback and Griffin provides it, but he’s also going to need to pick his moments.

In fairness, Baylor also seemed to shift their game plan towards a lot of run-option and screen passes against Washington – similar to what we saw in previous seasons with RG3 at quarterback. It’s always difficult to be too judgemental in bowl games such as this with a lot of points scored and not a great deal at stake. No doubt the games against Oklahoma and Texas will provide greater points of focus for scouts in the off season, where we didn’t see quite as much of an issue with Griffin getting happy feet. It may be that he simply believed he could score at will against a bad Huskies defense and tried too hard. Even so, this wasn’t his best game whatever the reasoning – and it does highlight that while there are a lot of extreme positives to Griffin’s game, he’s not flawless.

Decision time for underclassmen

Despite previously announcing he’d stay at Rutgers, Mohamed Sanu has today revealed he will turn pro. He’s a big, sure-handed receiver with the potential to line-up all over the field. He’s not got elite downfield speed and he’ll need work on his route running, but there’s a lot of playmaking potential. Whitney Mercilus (DE, Illinois) is also turning pro after a 14.5 sack season that led the NCAA. He’s not a brilliant physical talent with elite edge speed or dominating strength, but his production will interest teams. Personally, I think he’s best suited to playing in space because he’s not the biggest player. I’m not convinced he’s a player the Seahawks will look at as early as #11 or #12.

Stanford trio Andrew Luck, Jonathan Martin and David DeCastro are all turning pro as expected, as is Arizona State linebacker Vontaze Burfict. Luck will go first overall while Martin’s stock could be inflated with a good combine performance and the sheer need for offensive lineman at the top of round one. Right guard DeCastro is slightly over rated and he’s not quite as dominant as people will have you believe. He’s a great technician and does an excellent job pulling and working on the move. He initiates holes in the run game with great hand placement and positioning. However, he’s not got elite size or strength at the point of attack and his pass-protection can be hit and miss. He’s also a little too keen to get to the second level sometimes.

Tomorrow I’ll be publishing an updated mock draft with the Seahawks picking 11th overall. Of course, in reality they need to win a coin-toss to leap frog Kansas City – but I thought I’d give the edge to Seattle for now. I’ll also be breaking down Ryan Tannehill’s performance against Northwestern and we’ll have game-tape of Chandler Jones – a defensive end from Syracuse with mid-round potential for the Seahawks.

Griffin out of reach for Seattle? Not so fast…

January 2, 2012 / Rob Staton

The Heisman winner in Seattle? It's not quite so unrealistic anymore...

The Seahawks are a coin-toss away from the #11 overall pick in April, yet most people have given up on the Seahawks drafting a quarterback in round one. I was one of those people. After a big win on the road against Chicago, I presumed the Seahawks would win one of their last two games. I’m not sure many people anticipated two NFC West defeats to end the regular season, which pushed Seattle up to the fringes of the top-ten. Time to review this particular situation.

There are essentially two quarterbacks worthy of being drafted early in round one. Andrew Luck will go first overall to Indianapolis, leaving the rest to scrap for Robert Griffin III. Ryan Tannehill and Landry Jones get a lot of unworthy hype, but as I’ve discussed at length, I wouldn’t take either in the first round. John Schneider was at the Alamo Bowl to watch Griffin take on Washington and in many ways the Baylor quarterback fits what Seattle has been looking for at the position. He’s mobile, he’s capable of extending plays, he limits turnovers and he’s got the arm to make difficult throws. Nobody can accuse Seattle of looking for perfection with the three quarterbacks they’ve acquired under the current regime (Tarvaris Jackson, Charlie Whitehurst and Josh Portis) but all share similar playing trends. Griffin is a more accomplished, more exiting model.

There’s an assumption doing the rounds that RG3 won’t last very long in round one. In fact, St. Louis are supposedly being primed to make a killing as teams jostle for position to draft the Heisman Trophy winner immediately after Luck leaves the board. I’m not going to rule that out and certainly Griffin’s hype-factor is through the roof at the moment. Not only is he a quarterback fans want to root for, but he’s a marketing dream with the potential to help sell a lot of tickets. He’ll test well at the combine, he’ll interview well and it’s no surprise that reports have surfaced that he’s going to turn pro. He’d be daft not to.

Even so, let’s not ignore the other side of the debate here which hasn’t been covered anywhere. What could lead to a fall, if anything?

The Washington game highlighted a couple of technical issues that haven’t always shown up this season. I sensed Griffin got a little impatient in the game and after a razor-sharp start, he was contained by the Huskies (even if they couldn’t stop the run and the steady stream of points). Feeling frustrated and wanting to make things happen, Griffin tried too hard. Suddenly he was moving around in the pocket trying to make unrealistic runs, bailing on the pass too early and losing a lot of his poise. Baylor scaled down their offense to take advantage of soft coverage and went to a heavy screen game – a staple used prior to the 2011 season that limited Griffin’s grade coming into this year. He didn’t look like a spectacular playmaker and was outshone by his opposite number – Keith Price. He’s also not working within an offense comparable to what he’ll find in the NFL and there’s a learning curve to combat especially if he’s expected to start quickly.

Although he generally makes good decisions, like most college quarterbacks he isn’t being asked to make pre-snap reads and adjustments. There are footwork issues he needs to solve when setting to throw, because he wastes too many steps on the drop back and dances too much in the pocket. Some teams will question the throws he’s making this year – although there’s been some sensational plays, the bulk of his throws are downfield lobs to utilise the extreme speed Baylor has at receiver and there’s a lot of comeback passes on bootlegs or scrambles, or simple screens and digs.

Griffin made enough mind-blowing plays for a lot of teams to see beyond this. However, it’s worth noting a possible flaw or two considering all of the non-stop hype everywhere else. Perhaps it won’t be any fault of Griffin’s ifhe falls? Maybe there’ll be reasons beyond his control that see him take a slight drop?

Indianapolis are clearing house after a 2-14 season – firing Vice Chairman Bill Polian and GM Chris Polian. Head Coach Jim Caldwell could also be on the way out. This is a big step for the Colts, who appear to be preparing for a new era at the franchise. Tellingly, the usually conservative Peyton Manning spent eight minutes with reporters after yesterday’s defeat to Jacksonville talking about the future. He acknowledged the Colts had to act and would do whatever they think is best. Manning sounded resigned to a future where he isn’t the heartbeat of theset-up. This is soon to be Andrew Luck’s team, with everything built around his future success.

Although Bill Irsay says Luck and Manning can c0-exist, the writing is on the wall. Due $28m before the new league season begins, Manning will be cut or traded before Indianapolis is footing the bill. It’ll create a scramble for a future hall-of-fame quarterback who, if healthy, could turn a team into an instant contender within their division and maybe even their conference. I’ve made the point many times on this blog, but doesn’t this just scream for Washington to make a move? Dan Snyder loves a free-agent splash and making Manning a Redskin would be a major coup. Suddenly, Washington would be in the NFC East mix. Mike Shanahan has endured two pretty miserable seasons so far as Head Coach, but adding Manning would suddenly make his offense relevant.

Sure, heisn’t the prototype quarterback Shanahan usually acquires – but this is Peyton Manning we’re talking about here. Washington can’t sit around hoping that Griffin will fall beyond Cleveland come April – they have to act. They could sign Manning and plan to go in a different direction in round one. The Redskins could still draft a younger quarterbacklike Ryan Tannehill, who should be around at the top of round two unless there’s a ridiculous Christian Ponder-type reach. By adding Manning, drafting a player such as Riley Reiff to play right tackle and then adding Tannehill as a developmental successor, Washington could have a direction for the future but also a short term plan to be competitive in the NFC East.

It’s not a ridiculous suggestion, in fact I think it’s fairly logical when you think about it. It’d also take the Redskins out of contention for Griffin.

The team in pole position to draft RG3 is of course Cleveland, who own the #4 overall pick. Colt McCoy hasn’t worked out (why did anyone ever think otherwise?) and they need a quarterback desperately. The Browns have two first round picks meaning they could draft Griffin and still improve another area of their team in round one. However, is there a possibility Cleveland could look to fill their quarterback void elsewhere? Let’s not forget how Mike Holmgren went about his work in Seattle. He hand picked a quarterback from his former employer and despite a bargain price, turned Matt Hasselbeck into a Pro-Bowler and Super Bowl quarterback. Already he’s avoided the position early in consecutive drafts, only to spend a mid-round tester on McCoy. Will he see Griffin as an unmissable talent for his master plan? Or will he believe there are other options out there? After all, this is a Cleveland team with very little offensive playmaking talent.

Griffin alone could be swallowed up, but go and sign Matt Flynn and realistically you could draft Trent Richardson and a first round receiver too. Then you’re looking at a quarterback with some of the technical qualities Holmgren likes, but not the physical brilliance of Griffin. You’ve got a playmaker capable of becoming a superstar in Richardson and a big bodied receiver (Alshon Jeffrey? Michael Floyd?) to help Greg Little. While the running back position is becoming less important in terms of draft stock, let’s not rule out the possibility of a team falling in love with Richardson as much as many expect teams to fall in love with Griffin. The relatively cheap price of a top-five pick these days could make for a more dynamic impact with Richardson pounding the rock in the AFC North and Flynn acting as the string-puller. Too far fetched? Maybe not.

If these two scenarios came true (run with it) it would leave Miami at #9 as the next obvious home for RG3. Suddenly, you could be looking at a situation where the Carolina Panthers are on the clock at #8 and the Seahawks would only need to move up three spots to usurp the Dolphins. The old trade value chart says Seattle would need to make up 150 points, essentially the price of a late third round pick. The Seahawks haven’t had a third round choice in the last two drafts, yet have still managed to find plenty of talent in the later rounds. If Seattle traded it’s early third round pick, they could probably get a 5th rounder out of the deal to soften the blow. It’s hardly a trade that will ruin the future of your franchise, especially if you believed Griffin had the potential to finally end the tedious debate as to who will be Seattle’s quarterback of the future.

A lot would need to happen for this to become reality – not to mention the possibility that other teams could also look to move up and might be willing to spend big in order to do so. However, there was a lot of hype about Blaine Gabbert last April. People might not recognise it considering Gabbert’sstruggles this year, but there was talk he could go first overall and wouldn’t make it out of the top five. At one point, reports suggested Washington were aggressively trying to trade up to draft him in the top-three. As it happens, the Redskins passed up the chance to draft him with their own pick and Gabbert went fell to the #10 pick – a surprise at the time. Although we expect Griffin to go very early – and people expect Griffin to be a better pro than Gabbert has so far – let’s try not to assume anything just yet.

Picking in the late teens would’ve made any potential trade a blockbuster – multiple picks, two first rounders. It would’ve handcuffed the Seahawks – and Pete Carroll – to Griffin and his success or failure. I’d guess this franchise wouldn’t be prepared to make such a move, a risk that seems out of character. Whether Seattle picks at #11 or #12, suddenly such a deal is no longer so unrealistic. According to the chart, for the price of their second rounder they have enough to get up to #5 or #6. If the Seahawks like RG3 enough to make him ‘the guy’, putting a deal together to bring him to the North West may not cost quite as much as people first thought. Is he in play for the Seahawks? Why not?

Seahawks will pick 11th or 12th in the draft

January 1, 2012 / Rob Staton

After a 23-20 defeat to Arizona today, the Seahawks will pick 11th or 12th overall in the 2012 NFL Draft. They will hold a coin toss with Kansas City, who beat Denver 7-3.

Had Indianapolis, Tampa Bay or Minnesota won today, Seattle would’ve avoided a coin toss. They had been picking at #14 before the final weekend of regular season play, but wins for Philadelphia and Arizona moved the Seahawks up two spots. Their ability to get lucky on a 50/50 chance will determine whether they move up even further. Seattle’s opponents for the season ended 131-125 (0.512), the exact same number as Kansas City. Recent history suggests the coin toss will take place at the combine in Feburary – that is when Jacksonville & Chicago (2010) and Atlanta and Tampa Bay (2006) held there’s.

Here are the players taken in the last three years at #11 and #12:

2009
#11 Aaron Maybin (LB, Penn State), #12 Knowshon Moreno (RB, Georgia)

2010
#11 Anthony Davis (OT, Rutgers), #12 Ryan Mathews (RB, Fresno State)

2011
#11 JJ Watt (DE, Wisconsin), #12 Christian Ponder (QB, Florida State)

2012 Draft order so far:
1. Colts
2. Rams
3. Vikings
4. Browns
5. Buccaneers
6. Redskins
7. Jaguars
8. Panthers
9. Dolphins
10. Bills
*11-12. Seahawks/Chiefs (coin toss)

Where will the Seahawks pick if…

January 1, 2012 / Rob Staton

Today is the final day of the regular season with Seattle preparing to face Arizona. So what draft pick will the Seahawks get depending on the different scenarios that could play out?

Seattle can pick as high as 10th, but no lower than 19th. Defeat against Arizona and the Seahawks will pick no lower than 13th. They will jump a spot higher if the following happens:

– Philadelphia defeats Washington at home

– Kansas City beats Denver, plus two of Tampa Bay (@ Atlanta), Minnesota (vs Chicago), Pittsburgh (@Cleveland) and Indianapolis (@Jacksonville) are victorious. In the event only one of those teams win, a coin toss would determine who picks first between Seattle and Kansas City.

– Buffalo wins at New England, plus two of Tampa Bay (@ Atlanta), Minnesota (vs Chicago), Cincinnati (vs Baltimore) and Tennessee (@ Houston) are victorious. In the event only one of those teams win, a coin toss would determine who picks first between Seattle and Buffalo.

If all three scenarios play out and Arizona defeats Seattle, the Seahawks will own the #10 overall pick.

So what about if Seattle wins? The Seahawks could pick no higher than 14th overall and no lower than 19th. If Seattle wins today, they will move a spot closer to #14 with each of the following results:

– Chicago wins at Minnesota

– San Diego wins at Oakland

– Tennessee wins at Houston

– The New York Jets win at Miami

– Dallas wins at the New York Giants

– Oakland wins against the Chargers, but at least one of the following teams win: Tampa Bay (@ Atlanta), Minnesota (vs Chicago), Pittsburgh (@Cleveland) or Tennessee (@ Houston). In the event that Oakland loses and all four of those teams are also defeated, a coin toss would determine who picks first between Seattle and Buffalo.

The ideal scenario is a Seahawks to win today while still getting the #14 overall pick, so it’s time to become part-time fans of the Bears, Chargers, Titans, Jets and Cowboys for 24 hours.

Happy New Year!

December 31, 2011 / Rob Staton

I want to wish all of our readers a Happy New Year and all the best for 2012! Only four months to go until the NFL Draft…

Rob.

Breaking down Brandon Weeden (QB, Oklahoma State)

December 30, 2011 / Rob Staton

Brandon Weeden will be a 29-year-old rookie next year

Yesterday we looked at Ryan Lindley (QB, San Diego State) as a possible quarterback option beyond round one for the Seahawks. Today I’m going to look at Oklahoma State’s Brandon Weeden.

There’s a lengthy back story here. Weeden is a former all-state high-school pitcher and 2002 second round pick by the New York Yankees who also spent time with the LA Dodgers and Kansas City Royals. By 2006 he was out of Baseball due to a persistent shoulder injury, so he turned his hand to football knowing he was still eligible to play at the college level. Weeden walked onto Oklahoma State’s roster and redshirted in 2007 before making one start in 2008. A year later he took over the starting job, replacing former Seahawks scout team QB Zac Robinson. He took time to adapt to football and West Virginia head coach Dana Holgorsen – Weeden’s former offensive coordinator at OKSU – admitted that at first he was “too deliberate” and played like he was on the pitcher’s mound. He’s since developed into an established passer and an instantly familiar name within the college ranks.

In two years starting he’s thrown 68 touchdowns compared to just 25 interceptions, topped 4000 yards twice and this year completed 73% of his passes. If not for one bitterly disappointing defeat to Iowa State, Weeden would be preparing for the BCS Championship game right now. Instead, he has to make do with a Fiesta Bowl berth against Andrew Luck and Stanford.

There’s been a lot of talk about Weeden’s draft stock, with the age-factor always cropping up. There’s simply no getting away from the fact he’ll turn 29 in his rookie NFL season. Weeden is not going to be exempt from the same kind of learning curve experienced by most rookie quarterbacks. Oklahoma State runs a prolific passing game that basically asks the quarterback to start in the gun and still utilise a three, five or even seven step drop. By the time he’s throwing the ball, he’s often ten yards behind the LOS. This draws the pocket away from the original line creating a lot of space for underneath throws and passes to the sideline. By spreading out the receivers like they do, it almost doubles the size of the field and makes it hard to cover talented receivers like Justin Blackmon (and in the past, guys like Dez Bryant). It’s a scheme that relies on playmakers at the skill positions, good pass-protection and solid quarterback play. Over the last few years, OKSU have become quite the offensive force by mastering this way of business and Weeden has continued that tradition.

Being a mature 29-year-old adult who’s worked within pro-sports, you would expect Weeden to be comfortable competing against teenagers in college. I expect Weeden’s age will provide some smaller benefits when he enters the NFL too because he’ll not be overwhelmed by the situation. This is a guy who’s been drafted by the Yankees, so he won’t be fazed by the challenge of playing on the big stage. However, let’s not make the mistake of assuming he’ll be ‘pro-ready’ just because he’s a little older. The system he works in at OKSU is very different and a lot less technical than anything he’ll experience in the NFL. When I’ve watched Oklahoma State – and I said the same thing when people asked about Zac Robinson – I see a scheme that scares me. In the same way that Weeden needed two years to get out of pitcher-mode, he may need the same amount of time to get up to speed with a NFL offense. He needs to learn to take snaps under center, make a quick and accurate read and deliver a pass into a crowded, tighter field. He needs to learn the concepts of play action. He needs to learn the footwork required playing within a pro-offense.

If it does take two years, suddenly you’re talking about a 31-year-old quarterback making his first start. That’s not the end of the world, but obviously it’s not ideal. Weeden has a live arm, as you’d expect from a former pitcher. He delivers the ball with good velocity and he can fit the ball into tight windows. However, he’s not the kind of player who can make up for inexperience or a lack of technical quality with brilliant physical plays. That’s another reason why I think he’d have to sit, because he’s not going to be able to ‘wing it’ early in his career.

A lot of questions raised so far would’ve limited his stock at any age. I’ve seen people argue Weeden would be a first round pick if he was in his early 20’s, but I disagree with that. Given everything I’ve discussed here I would expect a younger version to be graded solidly in round two or three with the potential to grow into a starter one day. I wouldn’t rule out Weeden being taken in round three anyway given the need for quarterbacks – if not sooner. He’s a polished quarterback in OKSU’s system, but he’ll be raw at the next level.

That said, he does make some pretty throws and the arm strength, as mentioned, is good. In the tape below from the game against Oklahoma, you’ll see a handful of quality passes. Even so, ask yourself about the situation and how the field is stretched in order to make those plays. How far behind the LOS is Weeden throwing and how has the coordinator spread his receivers?

A good example of this is at 0:32, where we see a 4WR set and one tailback split to the left. When Weeden sets to throw, he’s around 7-8 yards behind the LOS. The RB runs a checkdown route and the receiver to the left runs an inside slant to offer an underneath option. The two wide-outs to the far right just run go-routes to clear two defensive backs and Weeden looks for the slot receiver on a crossing route. It’s actually a throw that flashes his arm at it’s best – it’s quite a long-distance pass given his passing position and he shows perfect velocity even if it’s a relatively easy moving target under no pressure. However, you can see how much the field is stretched by witnessing the YAC from such a basic route. The pocket is at least six yards behind the LOS and with the 4WR set, everything is so spread out. Weeden is perfect for the system considering his arm strength and poise, but whether he can make the same plays under center in a much more compacted field is a big unknown.

Fast forward to 0:57 and you’ll see the same thing. Again it’s a 4WR set and again Weeden is taking 6-7 steps backwards despite being in the gun. The pocket moves backwards too, freeing up so much open space. He’s always got the underneath option – which he uses a lot – but he’s also got the arm strength to hit the other receivers who will consistently get open in this environment. He’s essentially a ‘fast-ball’ thrower. That may sound crude to some who expect to read a better review, but that’s how I judge the tape. In fairness, he does a good job mixing up his trajectory and he knows when he needs to put more air on the ball to find gaps. Having said that, I’m not a big fan of the way he often throws off his back foot and he could stand to add a bit more bulk to what appears a thin frame that lacks a lot of tone (he’s listed at 218lbs, but there’s room to get up to 230lbs and wear it well).

The way he currently works in the pocket could develop into something of a bad habbit. By nature, Weeden is going backwards as soon as he gets the ball. The system asks him to do it, because Robinson did the same thing from the gun. However, I wonder if Weeden’s instinct has turned into ‘move backwards’ at the sign of pressure? He drifts too much and at the next level, being a long way behind the LOS and with tighter coverage it’ll make life very difficult. There’s also a few times where I’ve noticed Weeden trusting his arm a little too much and throwing into a crowd. He often gets away with it because the arm is good enough, but there are times when he’s had multiple picks (three interceptions vs Lafayette & Iowa State).

Weeden’s arm intrigues me enough to take on the challenge, but it’s a challenge that will take time and coaching. Unfortunately, because of his age, time isn’t working in Weeden’s favor.

Breaking down Ryan Lindley (QB, San Diego State)

December 29, 2011 / Rob Staton

Ryan Lindley has some talent but there's enough concerns to temper expectations

Just before Christmas, Kip posted two excellent articles looking at later round quarterbacks that could be in play for the Seahawks. To see both pieces, click here and here. I wanted to continue this theme by taking a look at other options the front office might consider. I think it’s likely Seattle will draft a quarterback at some point, even if it’s not the top-end first rounder a lot of people are hoping for. I wanted to highlight Ryan Lindley (QB, San Diego State) as someone who’s drifted off the radar this season despite being one of the pre-season tips to get among the big name quarterbacks.

Back in September, Tony Pauline at SI.Com said Lindley, “could be the most underrated senior prospect in the nation.”However, a poor performance against Michigan at the end of the month led to this rethink by Pauline:

“Prior to the season I referred to San Diego State quarterback Ryan Lindley as one of the most underrated prospects from the senior class. After a fast start to his campaign, NFL scouts were of the same opinion. Yet Lindley faltered in Ann Arbor against Michigan one week ago, a game that was likely to be the toughest challenge he’ll face on the field this season. He completed just 48 percent of his passes and struggled to get the offense into the end zone. While this is far from the end game for the signal caller, several insiders from the scouting community have confided in me that Lindley missed a big opportunity to establish himself as one of the top senior quarterbacks available in next April’s draft.”

One of the big problems with Lindley is the low completion rate he’s endured throughout his four years starting at San Diego State. He threw over 420 passes in each season, but never topped 58% completions. In 2011 he actually recorded a career low 53%, ending with an average of just 56% overall. Teams want to see more than 60% completions, particularly if a player has had four years of solid starting time. As you’ll see in the video below, Lindley suffers from a lot of dropped passes. He’s also strikingly inconsistent, flashing definite pro-potential on several throws and just flat out missing on others.

Lindley has the size, arm and mobility that teams are looking for at the moment. Despite some negative reviews and all of the inconsistencies, he’s a player to watch as we get closer to April. At 6-4 and 230lbs he looks the part and there’s a chance he’ll impress at the Senior Bowl if he receives an invite. As a 5th year Senior, some of the mistakes are a little concerning considering he’s had plenty of time under center. He’s not raw, so scouts will study the tape and judge whether he’s capable of becoming a more rounded prospect with pro-guidance. I’ve included two pieces of game tape below – the aforementioned defeat against Michigan and the most recent New Orleans Bowl defeat to UL Lafayette.

There are a few throws here where Lindley really looks the part. Against Lafayette, look at the pass at 0:54 and the way he drops it into his receiver making sure he’s the only one who can make the completion. At 1:41 he extends the play by running to his right and doesn’t panic, before throwing a nice downfield pass to his tight end. The throw at 5:09 from deep inside his own endzone shows a lot of poise and confidence to get a difficult first down. The second touchdown pass at 6:10 is a thing of beauty – perfect touch and precision to find the back of the end zone and one of the prettiest passes you’ll see this season. The score that puts SDSU ahead with seconds to spare is also an excellent piece of quarterback play – high pressure situation, pinpoint accuracy to dissect two defenders for a touchdown.

Then you look at the throw at 2:16 where there’s an obvious breakdown somewhere and he almost throws it straight to the cornerback for a pick-six. At 4:03 he throws into thick coverage and has a pass tipped into the area that could easily have been intercepted. At 5:19 he’s basically throwing one up for grabs in a situation where it wasn’t warranted. It’s a bad read, a careless throw and should’ve led to a turnover. He follows it up with a near identical deep attempt that again could’ve been picked off. There’s nowhere near enough punch in that deep ball and throwing short from such a range is asking for trouble. By 8:18 he’s really pushing his luck with another pass that should’ve been easily taken by a defensive back. At 6:43 he has a receiver wide open for a touchdown and just has to hit him in stride but misses badly. He has to make that throw.

Against Michigan he flashes some arm strength with a nice cross-body throw at 0:10. After that though he really struggles to cope with the pressure created by the Wolverine front four. Although he doesn’t get anything like adequate protection from his offensive line, it’s visible how much the pressure impacts Lindley and he loses any level of composure and never regains any momentum. It’s hard to find many positive highlights in the game as he’s just off for most part. His sole touchdown at 4:34 asks a lot of his receiver, but a score’s a score.

When Lindley is making plays I want to say he’s the third best quarterback eligible for 2012. Then you watch one of his mistakes and you have to remember he’s a 53% passer who hasn’t taken any giant leaps as a senior. It’s worth noting he’s played for three different head coaches in four years starting and that has to have an impact on his development. In a more settled pro-environment with time to develop, could he settle down? He’s only 22 so there’s still time for him to sit for a year or two. My biggest concern, however, is that he will end up always being what we see now. In any given game he’ll make plays where you sit up and take notice, but he’ll likely follow it up with a drive-killing miss or a turnover. He needs to do a better job reading the field and judging when a pass isn’t on. Too many times defensive backs are gaining position on the receivers and under-cutting routes, only for Lindley to make a late throw anyway and almost get picked off. He only had eight interceptions for the year but it could’ve easily been more. He also needs to improve the consistency with his arm strength and get a better feel for velocity. Sometimes he takes pace off the ball when he needs to really drive it to the target, other times he’ll fire a bullet on a short range throw to his full back.

From a size, arm potential, frame and mobility stand point there’s a lot to like. There’s also enough to temper expectations and limit his stock. Having said that, if he can go to the Senior Bowl and show greater consistency and a strong arm there’s no reason why he couldn’t end up going higher than many people – including me – first thought.

Updated mock draft: 28th December

December 28, 2011 / Rob Staton

Projecting the 2012 draft is proving increasingly difficult. High-profile prospects opting to return to college is hitting a talent pool that was never particularly deep to begin with. Matt Barkley will head back to USC, dynamic linebacker Jarvis Jones will remain with Georgia and emerging defensive tackle Star Lotulelei has reaffirmed his intentions to stay at Utah. It could impact the draft in two ways – some players will be taken earlier than they should, while others could now declare in the hope of taking advantage of a weaker class.

In this latest mock I’ve added three news names to the mix, purely down to the increased chance they will declare. Barrett Jones (OT, Alabama) has played virtually every position on Alabama’s offensive line, but has caught the eye replacing James Carpenter as the team’s blindside blocker this season. With a lot of teams expected to consider drafting a left tackle, he could end up competing with Riley Reiff and Jonathan Martin to be the next player taken after Matt Kalil.

Sam Montgomery (DE, LSU) missed a lot of 2010 through injury, but he’s had an impact this year with nine sacks. He’s got a lean frame with room for extra size (he’s playing at about 250lbs right now). He fits as an outside rusher in the 3-4 and has an outspoken character, which could attract people like Rex Ryan but repel others.

Michael Egnew (TE, Missouri) is a big time playmaker and the epitome of a modern-era tight end. He’s not going to be restricted to a lot of blocking duties, he’s a pure pass-catcher and the impact of Jimmy Graham in New Orleans will make players like Egnew more appealing in a copy-cat league.

I’ve paired another new name with Seattle too as we run through the different options they face with limited quarterback options available. I still think this team will really attack the WILL linebacker position currently occupied by pending free agent Leroy Hill. I’m surprised Jarvis Jones has given so little consideration to turning pro with a lot of teams looking for his skill set. Zach Brown at North Carolina isn’t the same kind of edge threat on third downs, but he’s a sideline-to-sideline player who gets around the field and makes tackles. He’s very fluid, he’s a sure tackler despite needing to add some size. In many ways he’s the anti-Aaron Curry – more measured in his approach but silky smooth in the process.

Whether he’s enough of a pass rusher, I’m not sure. The Seahawks need to find ways to create pressure in a scheme that utilises three big-bodied defensive lineman, no top-end three technique and one pass-rush specialist. If they’re forced into a situation where the top two quarterbacks are unavailable, I expect linebacker to be a target area in round one.

Updated first round mock draft


	#1 Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford) Despite a lot of talk about keeping Manning and drafting Luck, it remains an unlikely proposition. Long term thinking will win out.


	#2 Matt Kalil (OT, USC) The Rams will end up with the #1 pick if Indianapolis wins again. Whether it’s St. Louis or Minnesota picking here, they should take Kalil.


	#3 Jonathan Martin (OT, Stanford) Minnesota would love a shot at Kalil. It might be a bit of a reach, but protecting Christian Ponder must be a priority.


	#4 Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama) I have a feeling Holmgren will target quarterbacks later now that Barkley is out of play. That opens the door for Richardson.


	#5 Dwight Jones (WR, North Carolina) The complete package at receiver – size, speed, good hands, competitive, adjusts to the ball. Gene Smith often does the unexpected.


	#6 Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU) Cornerbacks don’t often go in the top 2-3 picks, so Claiborne isn’t a shoe-in to go earlier than this.


	#7 Riley Reiff (OT, Iowa) I still believe Shanahan will show most interest in Ryan Tannehill later, while Peyton Manning remains an immediate option.


	#8 Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor) Are Miami starting to believe in Matt Moore? In reality, he’ll probably only be used as a bridge to the future.


	#9 Devon Still (DT, Penn State) Welcome to the 2012 draft. The complete lack of defensive line quality will see players like Still drafted above their means.


	#10 Barrett Jones (OT, Alabama) With several potential top-ten picks staying in school, others will emerge. Barrett Jones could be one of the players to take advantage.


	#11 Luke Kuelchy (LB, Boston College) Tackling machine who doesn’t flash many big plays but will quickly become the heart of a defense. A Scott Pioli-type pick.


	#12 Andre Branch (DE, Clemson) They need an OT but the top three are off the board. The next biggest need is a pass rusher and Branch will start to rise up boards.


	#13 Kevin Reddick (LB, North Carolina) I won’t be too surprised if Reddick goes before teammate Zach Brown. He’s less flashy, but more consistent. Just a solid football player.


	#14 Zach Brown (LB, North Carolina) The Seahawks could look for a more athletic option at the WILL. Brown has a bit of the Lance Briggs about him.


	#15 Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma State) Consensus opinion has Blackmon in the top ten, but he makes mental mistakes and doesn’t have elite tools. This really isn’t much of a slip.


	#16 Kendall Wright (WR, Baylor) Wright’s downfield speed and game-breaking ability will get the most out of Jay Cutler. Under rated receiver.


	#17 Quinton Coples (DE, North Carolina) Teams will be suspicious of a player with Coples’ physical qualities who doesn’t dominate as much as he should.


	#18 Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama) He’s big and good in run support, but has struggled in coverage at times. Jerry Jones will like this guy, so will Eli Manning.


	#19 Sam Montgomery (OLB, LSU) Redshirt sophomore with the kind of lean frame and speed to develop into a pass-rusher for Rex Ryan.


	#20 David DeCastro (OG, Stanford) Slightly over rated right guard from Stanford. A very technical player, but isn’t the all-dominating power lineman some think.


	#21 Janoris Jenkins (CB, North Alabama) Elite cornerback talent but troubled by off-field problems. The Bengals needs to draft a corner and Jenkins is good enough to start quickly.


	#22 Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame) Cleveland needs to keep adding playmakers. Floyd has his issues, but put him on that offense with Trent Richardson and it’ll be much improved. They’d still need a quarterback.


	#23 Whitney Mercilus (DE, Illinois) With 14.5 sacks this year, someone will give him a chance early in the draft. Detroit has bigger needs but could show interest here.


	#24 Lamar Miller (RB, Miami) The Broncos run the ball well and could look to add another back to their stable. Carolina had two first round runners under John Fox.


	#25 Michael Egnew (TE, Missouri) He’s very much the modern tight end – a pure pass catcher who will make spectacular plays downfield.


	#26 Vontaze Burfict (LB, Arizona State) Although I think his stock is falling, someone could take a shot on Burfict. My guess is he’ll end up playing AFC North..


	#27 Alameda Ta’amu (DT, Washington) His potential to play nose tackle could keep him in round one, even if his play has been inconsistent for the Huskies.


	#28 Peter Konz (OC, Wisconsin) Stood out last year in a big-name Badgers offensive line. Could return for another year, but ready to have an impact as a pro


	#29 Nicolas Jean-Baptiste (DT, Baylor) He’s no Phil Taylor, but every time I’ve watched Baylor this year he’s been the one defensive player who looks to have some pro-potential.


	#30 Courtney Upshaw (OLB, Alabama) Combative pass-rusher who fits the mould of the Baltimore defense. Brawling style makes up for lack of elite size and speed.


	#31 Fletcher Cox (DT, Mississippi State) He plays a bit like a runaway train. His running style looks off balance, but he moves for a big guy. A 3-4 fit looks ideal.


	#32 Mark Barron (S, Alabama) He’s having a good year but his stock is limited due to the position he plays. This would be a nice get for the Packers.

Thoughts on Austin Davis vs Nevada

December 27, 2011 / Rob Staton

This was largely described as a disappointing performance by the media, but it wasn’t quite as bad as I expected. The game was littered with offensive line penalties putting Davies in not-ideal 3rd and long situations. There were some key drops and a perfect pass at the end of the first quarter would’ve gone for a touchdown but for a blatant hold on the receiver that wasn’t called. On a go-route downfield, Davis throws nicely into the back of the end zone but his receiver – seemingly not expecting the ball – hesitates for some reason and checks back, losing a step and then missing what would’ve been a pretty simple touchdown catch. Southern Miss generally looked a bit off which isn’t surprising given the ‘job done’ element of their win over Houston and the fact their coach Larry Fedora has since accepted the vacant position at North Carolina. For what it’s worth, I think that’s a great appointment by UNC.

At the same time, this wasn’t the usual polished Austin Davis performance. One play sticks in the mind – it was a pretty simple post route where he just threw high. I think he expected the receiver to run deeper before making his cut, but Davis didn’t adjust well enough and threw the ball away from his target. That was an adjustment I’ve seen him make in the past time and time again, but the fact he missed generally summed up his performance on the whole – there was a slight lack of sharpness. It contradicted one of the things I like about Davis – his ability to improvise. It’s a skill often lost among QB grades yet for me is so crucial at the next level. In the NFL a defense will keep giving you different looks, you’ll think a play call is adequate and then the unexpected happens and you have to react. Being able to get out of that situation and make a first down is paramount to a quarterbacks success – it flashes poise, field vision and good decision making.

Being able to make those decisions in unfavorable situations is even more important. On 1st and 10 inside his own ten-yard line, Davis takes a shotgun snap and fakes the hand-off. He’s looking down the middle of the field for a crossing route that isn’t on, so he pumps and then looks to his right for a completion and a first down. It’s a decisive read and execution in the face of adversity despite having pressure in his face. That’s what I’ve come to expect from Davis in the last two years.

On the same drive he shows off his under-rated mobility. Penalties against the offensive line force Southern Miss into 3rd and 18, but Davis almost makes the first down with his legs after sensing an opening to his left hand side and scrambling into space. He is capable of catching a defense off guard to break off runs, but his athleticism will also enable him to extend plays – a more crucial aspect looking ahead to the NFL.

He’s worked very hard to improve his arm strength and last off-season added some upper body muscle to generate greater velocity. It’s clear he’s not going to be a big-time downfield passer with an arm for the ages. On intermediate throws there’s a level of inconsistency. In this game there were two shorter range passes where the ball floated and took too long to get to the target. Both were completed, but in the NFL that pass has to have more zip or it’s getting broken up as a best case scenario. At other times, he’s capable of fitting passes into tight windows with just enough juice. The velocity on his quick slant and outside slant is good enough. That gives me some encouragement that there’s room for further work. A lot of quarterbacks – Tom Brady included – have vastly improved their arm strength in the pro’s. Davis has the frame to add further weight and continue improving, but right now it’ll work against him in terms of draft stock.

I’ve always liked Austin Davis in the red zone – he’s very productive and doesn’t make many mistakes. If the pass isn’t on, he throws it away. He’s very good on the back shoulder and traditional fade to the back of the end zone. In a short field with a lot happening in front, Davis excels. His first touchdown in this game was a throw put into an area where only his receiver can catch it right behind the defensive backs’ helmet. It’s a catchable ball, it’s well executed and Davis deserves credit for keeping his composure right at the end of the first half with a lot of penalties going on in an unusually elongated drive with a short field.

With the game drifting into a defensive battle at 17-17, he makes two big plays to set up the game winning score. The first is a well driven outside slant forcing the ball into the receivers hands and allowing him to break off a big gain. The second is textbook, three step drop with three defenders in his face. Davis steps up into the pocket and with a crowded midfield somehow locates an open receiver for a smart completion. Good composure and field vision, nice accuracy too. It sets up a touchdown pass in the red zone where Davis makes one read to his right, rejects it, then has to move away from pressure on his blind side before fitting a pass into another tight window for the score. He does well to extend the play, find a receiver and also act quickly against the pressure.

See Davis’ game winning touchdown pass by clicking here

At no point in the game did he come close to a turnover. There were no close calls and Davis made enough plays to win against a tough, well prepared Nevada defense. We shouldn’t mistake Davis for a player who is going to make a late surge into first round contention. However, he certainly warrants more credit than he’s currently receiving on a national scale. There’s something to work with – he’s a technical player with mobility and room for further development. I’ve said it many times on this blog that if the Seahawks are looking for quarterbacks beyond round one then Davis is one to keep a firm eye on.

Courtney Upshaw game tape vs Ole Miss & Tennessee

December 26, 2011 / Rob Staton

I mocked Courtney Upshaw (DE/OLB) to the Seahawks in this week’s mock draft but I’m still trying to work out whether he fits Seattle’s scheme and desires with a high first round pick. If he’s limited to the LEO, is that a position they believe can be filled without the need for top-end investment (see: Chris Clemons)? Would they consider using more orthodox 3-4 looks to accommodate a player like Upshaw? He’s not the lean, fluid pass rusher I’d associate with the LEO, so can his ability to generate leverage and shed blocks negate some of the issues? I’m still working on Upshaw and trying to work out where he fits in the 2012 draft. More importantly, I’m trying to work out whether he fits in Seattle.

Tape provided by JMPasq